I'm Right! Science said!

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Dolcomen. Today We're going to talk about science and how
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I'm always right, So just remember that AJ take us away.
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A new study published in the Public Library of Science
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is shedding light on why people often stand firm in
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their beliefs during debates. The reason they think they have
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all the facts even when they don't. The study authors
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are calling this the illusion of information adequacy, which was
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demonstrated in an experiment where participants were split into two groups.
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Two groups were given opposite but incomplete facts about a
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fictional school merger, and the third group was given all
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the facts. So despite the incomplete information, the two groups
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with health the facts believed that they had enough information
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to make an informed decision. However, when presented with the
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full picture, their opinion shifted to match that of the
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group that had all the facts. This is good news,
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so that people are more open to changing their minds
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than expected, and the study actors say that being more
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curious about other people's perspectives can lead to deeper, more
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honest conversations about serious issues. So curiosity may have killed
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the cat, but perhaps it won't be what kills humans.
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This story is from Fortune by any Freemen on October Ninetheen,
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twenty twenty four.
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Thanks AJ, And I have to say that you're more
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hopeful than I am, and I would expect that. One
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thing for me is I recall that my dad used
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to very sarcastically say, don't confuse me, but the facts
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my mind is made up when he was talking to
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people who just refuse and ignore the obvious. And it
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did come to mind almost the big onset of this article.
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And I was hopeful, like you, Aj, that it showed
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that people were willing to change their mind. But being
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a little more dubious, I feel that in a controlled
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environment it's one thing, but you know, tell somebody who's
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taking survey questions and answers. But in a real world environment,
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how do you think this would play out? With people
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talking about things where they are in their own echo chamber?
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What do you think you think this would be likely
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effective for them too.
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One of the study leaders and flecchers, he noted that
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he thinks that the most common disagreements stem from just
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simple misunderstandings, like you know, your partner doing the lotary wrong,
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or putting the toilet paper under instead of over, and
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he said that being able to employ curiosity during those
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very small conflicts will help you during bigger, more difficult conversations.
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And you know that this would put you in a
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better position to have a real discussion about substantive disagreements,
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which are often political in nature. So I completely agree
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with this. I think that being able to look at
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someone else's perspective before making a harsh remark or you know,
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thinking that they're doing something to be malicious cull solve
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a lot of the issues that cause unnecessary stress and
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anxiety for the average person and within their their close
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relationships and friendships. And it may seem like a small
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skill to master, but it's all about changing the brain
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that our brain reacts to things. And when we begin
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to react more curiously about small issues, you know, wanting
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to learn more, that's when we start to do the
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same with other issues, like even the big ones like
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political disagreements, religious beliefs or stances on social justice, or
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professional settings at work and things that are you know,
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a big deal and not just on a personal level.
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Cara, I was wondered about you do you do you
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think that people because there are some people who just
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dismiss science entirely. They will say that, you know, God
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created the world in six thousand years, or the Earth's flat,
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or you know, the shroud of torrenchs you convince all
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of us to go to church tomorrow. What do you
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think about these kinds of people? Do you think that
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this could be something useful to reaching out the people
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like them too, or how do you think about that?
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I do? I mean, I think it is important to
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note that on some of those points that you made,
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there may be people who are dug in on certain
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issues and they are committed to their positions on those issues,
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not because of any kind of information that they have
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received that supports those things, but because of some other motivation,
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such as they need to continue to believe those things
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in order to prop up worldview that they feel they
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would be endangering their soul if they did not continue
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to believe in, or you know, various other kinds of motivations.
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They don't have to be religious ones. So yes, I
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think there are occasions where perhaps no amount of curiosity
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or kind and compassionate and empathetic communication may change someone's
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mind right there on the spot. But I think that
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the nature of the interaction and does matter, And I
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think this article fits into the larger conversation that we've
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been seeing lately about this concept of the backfire effect,
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which is kind of a sort of popular term that
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we use to describe this proposed effect that may occur,
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which says that when people are presented with information that
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contradicts the belief that they currently hold, they're actually more
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likely to dig their heels in than to change their minds.
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And we kind of took that as the truth for
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some time, but recently we've been seeing more questions being
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raised about whether it may be a little bit more
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complicated than that, and it's not always the case that
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people dig their heels in when they're presented with contradictory information.
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People do sometimes change their mind. I know I have before,
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I know we probably all have. Here we can probably
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think of an example of a time that we changed
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our mind when we were presented with contradictory evidence, And
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in a lot of cases, I think if we consider
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why we changed our mind in the face of that evidence,
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it may have to do with factors such as how
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that information was delivered. Was it coming from someone that
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you genuinely believed was interested in you and your well
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being and did not have nefarious intent, Was it delivered
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in a way that was compassionate and empathetic, or was
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it delivered in a way that was rude and insulting
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and accusatory.
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These may be.
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Factors that are more important when deciding whether someone is
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going to change their mind or not. So I do
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agree with the gist of this article when it's suggesting
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that people exhibit some curiosity before they just jump in
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and start assuming that other people have bad intent or
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that we need to just dig in our heels.
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But it seems that it is also a case of
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the less someone knows, the more confident they'll feel about it,
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And this reminded me of the dune in Cruder effect
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is a concept that that was actually coined by two
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psychologists in the nineties, and they noticed that people with
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limited knowledge or skilled in a specific area who thought
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that they knew enough, they usually overestimated their abilities and
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thinking that they knew more or better than most people
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based on the small amount of information that they knew
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about a specific topic, right because they had, you know,
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read an article or news about a news headline, and
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then suddenly they thought that they knew the whole the
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entire situation. And on the opposite end. You also have
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people who are extremely skilled, for example, like a highly
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trained scientist or engineer, and they may believe that they
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don't know enough about their own field or their topic,
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and that their peers are more knowledgeable, so they underestimate
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their abilities. And the positive side of this is that
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when people doubt themselves or their knowledge, they're more likely
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to seek or their information and answers. But you know,
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they don't in Kruger effect. Explains that why some people
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are more likely to fall for things like conspiracy theories.
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They think that they know enough about science or history,
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but they have no idea. And it seems that we
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are all prone to being on either side of the
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don't in Kruger effect. But I think the solution is
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to be more self aware and to admit when you
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when you know enough or when you don't know enough,
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and to also realize that you're more than likely are
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never going to know everything and that there's always something
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new to learn. That's my personal model, like, I don't
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know shit, don't anymore.
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Well, I was going to ask you about the Dunny
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Kruger effect, but I think you cave a pretty good
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explanation of that, And look, I get it. I know
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that all you other people are wrong sometimes, you know,
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but seriously, I hate being wrong. I will do not deny.
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I absolutely hate it. But I hated enough because it's
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one thing I hate more. I hate staying wrong even more.
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And so I think that with that in mind, you
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mentioned all of us changing our minds. Well, you know,
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as a former Believer who work for a former clansman
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who is a delegate to a party that shall not
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be named a long time ago, decades ago. Yeah, I've
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changed a few of my views on a few things.
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So I think it serves as a good reminder for
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all of us to be reminded that we've been wrong
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about things too. It's just sometimes it seems so hard
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thinking that the other people because once again, that's our
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otherness mentality that we like to portray, and it's good
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to be reminded that we fit in that category too,
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to make sure that we don't fall prey, because sometimes
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we are, but as being aware of it and having
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that self awareness, it's so important. So, Cara, I was
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going to switch over to you, how did you think?
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What do you think about I want to kind of
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carry off on the dunning Kruger effect. Do you think
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that that's something you see on a regular basis? Is
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that something that you see and do you have a
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particular methodology on dealing with it? Oh?
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Sure, Yeah, I do see that quite often, you know,
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and we sometimes say I even catch myself doing it
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sometimes and saying, oh, you know, I probably know just
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enough about this to be dangerous. And that's kind of
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what that is. And you know, to the point that
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was made earlier, Yeah, we never have all the facts.
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Our information is always incomplete, and we do have to
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still go about our lives and make decisions constantly throughout
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the day, many many times a day in the face
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of incomplete and inadequate information. So yeah, we probably are
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kind of primed to do that. If we couldn't ever
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make a decision or come to a conclusion in the
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absence of all of the facts, we'd all be paralyzed
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with indecision for probably all of our lives. So, you know,
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I think it's okay to give people a little bit
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of a past sometimes. But it's exactly that attitude that
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was mentioned earlier, of assuming not just that you know
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enough to have an opinion or come to a conclusion,
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but assuming that you are in possession of all of
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the facts and there's nothing more to be learned. That's
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when you know, Okay, that's that's not accurate. That's never
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going to be accurate. You're never in possession of all
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of the facts. It always pays to find out more.
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It may be challenging. It may lead to you having
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to reconsider a belief that you kind of didn't want
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to have to reconsider, and it may lead to you know,
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for some people, dealing with nuance or gray areas is
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unsettling and difficult, and it may lead you to a
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place where you realize, hmm, I don't know enough information
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about this topic to actually have a solid opinion. It
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could be this on the one hand, it could be
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that on the other hand, and we don't really have
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a good way to make a decision sometimes, and I
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think that can be very uncomfortable for people, But sometimes
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that's just the reality, and it helps to just be
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a little bit more comfortable with nuance if you can,
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and be ready to acknowledge that we don't have to
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have all of the answers all the time. Like we say,
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quite often, it's perfectly okay to say I don't know,
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and I think we should do that more often. I
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know I should do that more often, and I'm the
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person who goes around saying that all the time. I
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should put that into practice more so, Yeah, I think
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that is basically my opinion on that I don't know
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for sure.
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I have to say that I don't know as probably
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consistently the most honest answer you'll get from somebody, because
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rarely does anyone say I don't know when they really
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think they know the answer, unless they think it's a trap.
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So excluding that, now one thing, AJ, I know this
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articles about science, but you know me, so eventually it's
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going to also end up about politics. Do you think
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that there's an actual move to make science more dismissed?
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Is that something that we see in leadership in some places,
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wanting science to be something that people don't learn much
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of so that they can be taken advantage of and
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being fed an easy story.
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You can absolutely see this both in politics and in religion.
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I have to say that equally because we saw it
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in you know, twenty sixteen. I was actually involved in
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the March for Science, which was because of all the
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anti science moves that were being made by unnamed politicians
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at the time, and so we wanted to help educate
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people on topics, you know, medical science and the issues
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of the environment. And when it comes to the other
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side to religion, then you have all of these incredibly
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inaccurate things being talked to children from from the Bible.
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So they learn all these different facts that are equally
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scientific and anti scientific, and they value them at the
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same level, like I don't know, like you need water
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to survive and then Jesus welcome water. Right, So kids
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grow up learning that type of science and thinking, oh,
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it's all true. And so I think that yeah, ultimately
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we need we need to do better at teaching everybody,
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uh how how to understand science.
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I think that that's part of what we see when
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we see this move to get the Bible in the classrooms,
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and they say every classroom they want to mix up
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that science belief with you know, Jesus, magic water and
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the wine or whatever else. And then it creates a
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god ability factor that I do think is dangerous and
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goes definitely to the heart of making it easy for
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people to believe they know all the facts. A CARO,
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I just wonder, is there anything you wanted to close
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out with.
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You know, I don't think so because I don't want
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to have the final word on this matter, because I
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want to stay open and stay curious, and I don't
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think I have all the facts yet. But I was
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enjoying the conversation and I hope that we get to
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have more.
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Well that's good because I don't really want you to
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have it anyway, So a j you.
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And I will have the last word. I would say
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that speaking of curiosity, yeah, curiosity, epistemology, critical thinkingskepticism, these
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are all factors and skills that we need to learn
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and that can lead us to having more honest and
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unbiased conversations that results in less misunderstandings disagreements, and that
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we can help to further our society.
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I have to say that I'm hopeful that Lucifer here
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gave us good advice. But you know, after all, should
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we take Lucifer's word? I think so. I don't know
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about you, but what I do know is that you
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are absolutely