Does Abdul El-Sayad REALLY Have a Shot in Michigan Senate Race?

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So is Abdul El Sayed really going to be the next senator from Michigan?
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We've got some polls,
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we've got some,
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uh,
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market data,
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we've got some headlines that could help us kind of lock in on
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what's gonna happen there.
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We've got a brand new edition of Candidate
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Countdown that I think is gonna make some waves
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and
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We'll do uh something about prediction markets.
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You know,
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these things are beat up all the time.
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They're always attacked for being unfair and biased.
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Is that true?
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What does the data actually show us?
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We'll talk to you about that as well.
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All of that,
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so much more coming up on
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Predictable with Stu.
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All right,
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let's go.
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Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
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So much to tell you about.
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If you're new to prediction markets,
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there's a place for you,
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Predictable 101.com.
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A new version,
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a new video is out,
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uh,
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Video 5 in that series that helps you.
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That one's about,
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um,
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buying,
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uh,
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with shares.
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We have another edition that's about to come out,
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buying with a limit order to just kind of
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walk you through all the basics of prediction markets.
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It's predictable 101.com.
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Um,
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and you can get it as well on YouTube at predictable show.
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28 days.
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Until the midterm elections.
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That means 4 weeks,
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boys and girls.
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Yeah.
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Mhm.
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The math class continues,
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but it's interesting to see
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how close we are and what this feels like.
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If,
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if you're like me,
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you saw nonstop political ads all weekend,
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that's not normally the experience of someone who lives in Texas,
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but I will say it is right now.
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I was watching Monday Night Football last night and it was.
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Uh,
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anti-Tallarico ad into pro- Paxton ad,
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into pro Hinojosa,
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the gubernatorial,
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um,
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uh,
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nominee on the Democratic side,
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into a pro-Abbott ad,
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I think then one other ad for like Rice Krispies or something,
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and then back into another Tallarico ad.
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It's unbelievable
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how many ads they're they are throwing
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the entire kitchen sink at this state right now,
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and it's kind of fun to be in the middle
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of it even though I'm a little terrified of the results
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of that.
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Early voting is going on already in 13 states.
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If you are in Indiana,
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New Mexico,
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Ohio,
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or Wyoming,
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congratulations,
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you can vote today,
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right?
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Today's the 6th.
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Um,
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tomorrow in Arizona,
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uh,
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next week,
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you got Georgia,
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Idaho,
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Iowa,
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Kansas,
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Rhode Island,
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Tennessee,
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some of the big races coming online.
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Uh,
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just another thing about
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what is coming up because this is actually a huge week for the election.
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And for your prediction market positions.
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You wanna watch football.
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You want,
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I,
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I know
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how
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dedicated you are
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to watching every second
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of the WNBA playoffs.
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And they're going on,
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and it's gonna be hard to pull yourself away from those playoffs,
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especially now that Caitlin Clark is no longer in.
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Uh,
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but,
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uh,
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tonight we've got 2 massive debates.
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There's 3 actually tonight.
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You've got the Maine Senate debate.
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Uh,
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that's tonight,
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uh,
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Susan Collins,
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Troy Jackson,
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7 p.m. Eastern.
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You've got the Georgia gubernatorial debate,
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which is very close right now.
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That race is close between Keisha Lance Bottoms,
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who isn't a particularly strong candidate.
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They're kind of showing you,
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you've got the,
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the,
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the,
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uh,
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coattails of Ossoff
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and a Democratic year making this race sort of competitive.
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Jackson and Keisha Lance Bottoms pretty much,
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uh,
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toss up there.
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And then the Michigan gubernatorial race,
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Jo Jocelyn Benson and John James going at it.
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Uh,
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as well.
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Tomorrow,
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we've got a couple of big ones.
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Well,
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one big one I would say.
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One I'm,
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uh,
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interested in,
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uh,
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Tina Koek against Christine Drazen.
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Again,
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uh,
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Drazen is just an,
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it's just an oddball race,
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and so far,
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uh,
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my pick on this is not,
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I'm down a little bit on it because I was
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thinking the Democrat in Oregon would push through.
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This race is really close.
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In fact,
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Drazen's actually led in a couple of polls.
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I,
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you know,
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I'm not gonna be all broken up if I lose that particular race
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because of my personal preferences,
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uh,
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but I will say,
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Uh,
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I,
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it's a race to watch.
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I'm gonna watch that debate tonight,
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see,
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do I need to resize my position,
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uh,
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because debates do matter,
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as we've seen.
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I don't know if you may have remembered the 2024 presidential campaign.
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Um,
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occasionally debates really do matter.
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They don't usually swing a race like they did in
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2024 with Joe Biden and having to drop out,
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but they do happen.
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And then Michigan,
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uh,
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is coming up,
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of course,
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as I said,
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in the gubernatorial side
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tonight.
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We also have an Al Sayed Rogers debate on Thursday.
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That's a huge one,
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a huge one.
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That's basically to me a toss-up race,
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even though I'll show you some.
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Poland that
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doesn't back that up,
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but I'll give you my reasons why I don't believe that.
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And then Alaska
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has all four governors,
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including the fake Dan Sullivan
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on stage with the real Dan Sullivan,
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and then also Mary Peltola and whoever the fourth person is who I don't remember.
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Whoever that fourth person is,
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is the most invisible person even in Alaska,
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and that's hard to pull off.
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That's coming up on Thursday night,
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uh,
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as well,
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so.
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Um,
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let me show you the latest update.
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We have the latest update in the predictable,
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uh,
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midterm consensus.
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This is our election model
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called the PMC.
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Uh,
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you get this,
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uh,
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basically what we do,
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we'll give you the updates here.
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You can look at all the numbers,
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but at the top of this article every time,
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if you scroll down a little bit,
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you'll see the 5 points,
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the 5 takeaways
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from the latest PMC.
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The update,
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uh,
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just to quickly go through them,
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uh,
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you know,
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slightly different,
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uh,
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on the top line,
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not much,
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you know,
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0.3 point change,
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not a huge change.
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Uh,
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Republicans
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actually improved a little bit here.
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One of the things we started doing is looking at,
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there's hundreds of inputs that go into the PMC.
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Uh,
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we started looking at all of the individual ones,
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which way are they moving a little bit,
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and we're gonna try to include this with all of our updates.
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54% of the updates that we got
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that were moves that were over like a half a point,
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you know,
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a lot of them just don't change at all,
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but
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54% of them went toward Republicans,
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only 46% went towards Democrats.
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It's a very modest Republican tilt,
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but notable if that continues,
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you might see this thing start to turn around.
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Alaska moving towards Peltola.
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We know that New York Times poll we covered earlier this week has a big part of that.
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Same thing with Kansas.
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Um,
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it's interesting.
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Kansas,
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the,
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the markets
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said,
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uh,
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I think we're moving too much toward the Democrat.
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The,
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the predictable media consensus,
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our election model said,
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actually we're gonna go more towards Kansas.
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Either way,
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the Republicans still favored in that state,
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but the fact that that one's close is a sign of
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how dire some of these circumstances can be
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for Republicans in the worst case scenario.
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And we also,
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one of the things we do with the PMC is,
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um,
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highlight the differences
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between the prediction markets and what the experts are saying.
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The predictable media midterm consensus doesn't say anything
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about what I think about the elections,
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doesn't think about how prediction markets think about the elections.
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It's all the experts,
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it's all the polling data and all that stuff.
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So,
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seeing a gap,
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and there's some double digits gaps,
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00:06:23.850 --> 00:06:24.190
like
290
00:06:24.369 --> 00:06:24.809
one state,
291
00:06:24.890 --> 00:06:25.010
you know,
292
00:06:25.119 --> 00:06:26.989
someone says it's a 20% chance and it's actually
293
00:06:26.989 --> 00:06:29.079
a 35% chance or whatever the number is,
294
00:06:29.329 --> 00:06:31.369
we show you where those opportunities are,
295
00:06:31.570 --> 00:06:32.670
so you can kind of go through and
296
00:06:32.779 --> 00:06:34.130
cut the corner on all that research.
297
00:06:34.250 --> 00:06:34.549
So,
298
00:06:34.809 --> 00:06:36.929
that's what we do for you at predictableshow.com.
299
00:06:37.010 --> 00:06:39.890
You get every single Senate race as well as part of your,
300
00:06:39.970 --> 00:06:40.320
uh,
301
00:06:40.329 --> 00:06:40.929
subscription.
302
00:06:41.200 --> 00:06:41.519
Um,
303
00:06:41.600 --> 00:06:44.320
if you are a premium subscriber to PredictableShow.com,
304
00:06:44.359 --> 00:06:44.959
you get all that.
305
00:06:45.279 --> 00:06:45.440
So,
306
00:06:45.519 --> 00:06:45.640
you know,
307
00:06:45.679 --> 00:06:46.399
if you're a trader,
308
00:06:46.519 --> 00:06:46.679
I,
309
00:06:46.799 --> 00:06:47.670
I don't even think it's close.
310
00:06:47.760 --> 00:06:49.380
I think it's well worth the money.
311
00:06:49.760 --> 00:06:49.920
Um,
312
00:06:50.000 --> 00:06:52.200
if you are someone who really wants to dig into election stuff,
313
00:06:52.320 --> 00:06:53.880
really care about this stuff a lot,
314
00:06:54.079 --> 00:06:54.399
uh,
315
00:06:54.480 --> 00:06:54.720
I've,
316
00:06:54.790 --> 00:06:54.920
you know,
317
00:06:55.000 --> 00:06:55.160
I'm,
318
00:06:55.239 --> 00:06:57.019
I've been that way as well over the years.
319
00:06:57.200 --> 00:06:57.359
Uh,
320
00:06:57.429 --> 00:06:58.440
I think it's worth your money as well.
321
00:06:58.579 --> 00:06:59.959
It's lots of great features behind the paywall.
322
00:07:00.049 --> 00:07:00.260
OK,
323
00:07:00.399 --> 00:07:01.679
let me talk about El Sayed for a minute.
324
00:07:02.589 --> 00:07:03.750
El Sayed is,
325
00:07:03.790 --> 00:07:05.290
uh,
326
00:07:05.589 --> 00:07:07.910
showing a lead over Mike Rogers in the poll,
327
00:07:08.040 --> 00:07:08.260
uh,
328
00:07:08.350 --> 00:07:09.059
right now in,
329
00:07:09.109 --> 00:07:09.279
uh,
330
00:07:09.380 --> 00:07:09.989
in Michigan.
331
00:07:10.100 --> 00:07:11.970
This is a Mitchell poll.
332
00:07:12.299 --> 00:07:13.339
Let me give you some of the stats,
333
00:07:13.380 --> 00:07:15.690
basically 46% for El Sayed,
334
00:07:15.779 --> 00:07:16.940
41%
335
00:07:17.299 --> 00:07:17.799
for,
336
00:07:17.869 --> 00:07:18.459
um,
337
00:07:18.820 --> 00:07:19.540
Mike Rogers.
338
00:07:19.579 --> 00:07:20.980
That's kind of the top line,
339
00:07:21.059 --> 00:07:21.380
of course,
340
00:07:21.739 --> 00:07:22.190
Democrats
341
00:07:22.459 --> 00:07:23.760
overwhelmingly favoring,
342
00:07:23.779 --> 00:07:24.429
uh,
343
00:07:24.459 --> 00:07:24.809
uh,
344
00:07:24.820 --> 00:07:25.459
El Sayed,
345
00:07:25.899 --> 00:07:27.279
Republicans overwhelmingly favoring Rogers.
346
00:07:27.359 --> 00:07:28.730
One thing I'll note in those two numbers,
347
00:07:28.980 --> 00:07:31.040
which is odd in this climate,
348
00:07:31.500 --> 00:07:33.720
more Republicans on the Rogers side
349
00:07:34.369 --> 00:07:36.100
than Democrats on the El Sayyed side.
350
00:07:36.329 --> 00:07:38.040
And that shows a little bit of a split.
351
00:07:38.089 --> 00:07:39.190
It's only a couple of points,
352
00:07:39.410 --> 00:07:43.029
but it's a little bit of a window there for Rodgers to have some potential.
353
00:07:43.290 --> 00:07:45.890
Independents favor El Sayed by about 12 points,
354
00:07:46.049 --> 00:07:47.640
which isn't a terrible number in this climate,
355
00:07:47.690 --> 00:07:48.190
honestly,
356
00:07:48.200 --> 00:07:48.850
for Rodgers.
357
00:07:49.709 --> 00:07:51.420
Women overwhelmingly with El Sayed,
358
00:07:51.500 --> 00:07:53.059
men overwhelmingly with Rogers.
359
00:07:53.170 --> 00:07:54.239
When it goes to age groups.
360
00:07:55.190 --> 00:07:56.670
This is a huge part of this.
361
00:07:56.989 --> 00:08:02.149
Overwhelmingly 18 to 29 year olds are saying we want El Sayed 45 to 17.
362
00:08:02.720 --> 00:08:03.029
Uh,
363
00:08:03.089 --> 00:08:04.290
30 to 44 year olds,
364
00:08:04.489 --> 00:08:04.910
same thing,
365
00:08:05.000 --> 00:08:07.179
54 to 26,
366
00:08:07.250 --> 00:08:08.750
Major El Sayed lead.
367
00:08:09.010 --> 00:08:10.350
Everybody older than that
368
00:08:10.720 --> 00:08:13.549
is to the Rodgers side only by 3 points
369
00:08:13.769 --> 00:08:15.429
in the ages 45 to 64,
370
00:08:15.609 --> 00:08:15.910
and then,
371
00:08:15.970 --> 00:08:16.079
uh,
372
00:08:16.089 --> 00:08:17.910
12 points of 65 plus.
373
00:08:18.179 --> 00:08:18.369
Uh,
374
00:08:18.529 --> 00:08:19.160
Whitey,
375
00:08:19.329 --> 00:08:20.230
as you might expect,
376
00:08:20.630 --> 00:08:21.529
going with the Republican,
377
00:08:21.690 --> 00:08:21.850
gosh,
378
00:08:21.950 --> 00:08:21.959
I,
379
00:08:22.170 --> 00:08:23.040
these white people,
380
00:08:23.209 --> 00:08:24.730
can you believe these white people,
381
00:08:24.929 --> 00:08:25.000
uh,
382
00:08:25.010 --> 00:08:26.250
47 to 42
383
00:08:26.410 --> 00:08:27.630
African American voters are,
384
00:08:27.640 --> 00:08:27.809
are.
385
00:08:27.936 --> 00:08:29.726
For El Sayyed 71 to 9
386
00:08:29.936 --> 00:08:32.195
and other races uh 46 to 40
387
00:08:32.486 --> 00:08:33.335
for El Sayed.
388
00:08:33.375 --> 00:08:34.366
Now one interesting thing,
389
00:08:34.375 --> 00:08:34.486
and,
390
00:08:34.515 --> 00:08:37.356
and like it's an interesting coalition you're building there if you're El Sayed.
391
00:08:37.606 --> 00:08:41.395
You're trying to win a race in a midterm where passions are usually lower,
392
00:08:42.176 --> 00:08:43.226
turnout is lower,
393
00:08:43.495 --> 00:08:46.976
and voters who don't typically show up to the polls tend to show up less.
394
00:08:47.056 --> 00:08:48.955
This is one of the reasons why Republicans have done,
395
00:08:49.176 --> 00:08:49.426
uh,
396
00:08:49.616 --> 00:08:50.476
more poorly
397
00:08:50.776 --> 00:08:52.116
during midterm elections
398
00:08:52.455 --> 00:08:53.375
than they have during president.
399
00:08:53.682 --> 00:08:54.242
Presidential years
400
00:08:54.581 --> 00:08:55.932
because during presidential years,
401
00:08:56.221 --> 00:08:57.392
especially in the Trump era,
402
00:08:57.702 --> 00:09:00.101
those Trump voters tend to come out during those presidential years.
403
00:09:00.182 --> 00:09:02.632
They don't really care as much during those off years.
404
00:09:03.072 --> 00:09:03.081
Uh,
405
00:09:03.101 --> 00:09:03.182
again,
406
00:09:03.221 --> 00:09:03.851
these are,
407
00:09:04.221 --> 00:09:05.731
it's a certain subset of Trump voters,
408
00:09:05.781 --> 00:09:06.221
not all of them,
409
00:09:06.252 --> 00:09:06.752
of course,
410
00:09:06.981 --> 00:09:07.221
um,
411
00:09:07.421 --> 00:09:08.161
certain subset,
412
00:09:08.341 --> 00:09:08.572
uh,
413
00:09:08.661 --> 00:09:09.541
will come out and say,
414
00:09:09.651 --> 00:09:09.981
you know what,
415
00:09:10.041 --> 00:09:10.702
I'll come out for Trump,
416
00:09:10.711 --> 00:09:11.421
but nobody else.
417
00:09:11.791 --> 00:09:13.572
So when you get to these midterm elections,
418
00:09:13.831 --> 00:09:16.702
this is why Trump was saying to his hardcore followers at rallies,
419
00:09:16.781 --> 00:09:17.021
hey,
420
00:09:17.262 --> 00:09:18.262
pretend I'm running,
421
00:09:18.382 --> 00:09:18.901
come out.
422
00:09:19.250 --> 00:09:19.260
Because
423
00:09:19.710 --> 00:09:21.969
a lot of those people don't wind up showing up,
424
00:09:22.630 --> 00:09:24.609
the traditional guidance over the years
425
00:09:24.750 --> 00:09:26.330
for political campaigns has been
426
00:09:26.669 --> 00:09:27.580
you gotta be careful of,
427
00:09:27.630 --> 00:09:28.539
of specific voters,
428
00:09:28.549 --> 00:09:28.739
like,
429
00:09:28.750 --> 00:09:29.219
for example,
430
00:09:29.390 --> 00:09:30.140
young voters.
431
00:09:30.349 --> 00:09:32.900
If you're depending your campaign on 18 year olds,
432
00:09:33.150 --> 00:09:34.690
you're likely to be disappointed
433
00:09:35.109 --> 00:09:35.390
because,
434
00:09:35.469 --> 00:09:35.789
uh,
435
00:09:35.869 --> 00:09:36.070
you know,
436
00:09:36.150 --> 00:09:37.130
they're on Twitch.
437
00:09:37.770 --> 00:09:38.090
Um,
438
00:09:38.210 --> 00:09:40.510
so that is when you're building a coalition
439
00:09:41.159 --> 00:09:41.630
of
440
00:09:41.739 --> 00:09:42.830
people who are saying,
441
00:09:43.010 --> 00:09:43.369
um,
442
00:09:43.450 --> 00:09:43.650
you know,
443
00:09:43.770 --> 00:09:45.849
I'm young and I'm very passionate for El Sayyed.
444
00:09:45.969 --> 00:09:47.049
Do they actually show up?
445
00:09:47.090 --> 00:09:48.859
Are they even really registered?
446
00:09:49.130 --> 00:09:50.679
That's always a question for campaigns.
447
00:09:50.729 --> 00:09:51.570
It's not me saying this.
448
00:09:51.650 --> 00:09:52.929
This is what campaigns worry about.
449
00:09:53.000 --> 00:09:54.190
They worry about it all the time.
450
00:09:54.650 --> 00:09:55.239
In addition,
451
00:09:55.630 --> 00:09:58.250
the numbers with African Americans you see 71 to 9,
452
00:09:58.530 --> 00:09:58.650
uh,
453
00:09:58.729 --> 00:09:59.969
you'd think that's a really good number.
454
00:10:00.250 --> 00:10:03.159
There's a lot of undecided in that number for African American voters.
455
00:10:03.239 --> 00:10:05.090
That number's way too high for undecideds.
456
00:10:06.000 --> 00:10:08.929
African American voters in large numbers went to his opponent,
457
00:10:09.169 --> 00:10:09.640
um,
458
00:10:09.729 --> 00:10:10.309
uh,
459
00:10:10.369 --> 00:10:10.729
the Haley,
460
00:10:10.890 --> 00:10:11.590
Hail Mary,
461
00:10:11.809 --> 00:10:12.080
um,
462
00:10:12.210 --> 00:10:14.289
in that race and actually made it,
463
00:10:14.409 --> 00:10:14.570
you know,
464
00:10:14.729 --> 00:10:14.880
very,
465
00:10:14.940 --> 00:10:15.849
very competitive.
466
00:10:16.979 --> 00:10:17.530
El Sayed,
467
00:10:17.650 --> 00:10:19.320
they don't particularly like El Sayed that much.
468
00:10:19.700 --> 00:10:21.320
They may hold their nose and vote for him,
469
00:10:21.580 --> 00:10:22.760
but they may stay home.
470
00:10:22.979 --> 00:10:26.679
And so you're building a coalition to try to win a race in a purplish,
471
00:10:26.900 --> 00:10:28.130
maybe a little leaning blue state,
472
00:10:28.260 --> 00:10:29.039
especially in this environment,
473
00:10:29.419 --> 00:10:31.140
but you're trying to do it with young voters and
474
00:10:31.140 --> 00:10:33.140
African-American voters who don't really like you that much.
475
00:10:34.030 --> 00:10:34.960
Could be a tough road.
476
00:10:35.119 --> 00:10:38.190
The other thing is this region has been terrible when it comes to polling.
477
00:10:38.270 --> 00:10:40.390
The only state worse than Michigan has been Wisconsin,
478
00:10:40.890 --> 00:10:41.669
which Wisconsin,
479
00:10:41.859 --> 00:10:44.130
I will never believe a poll in Wisconsin again in my life.
480
00:10:44.429 --> 00:10:44.510
Uh,
481
00:10:44.549 --> 00:10:45.030
that's a new,
482
00:10:45.140 --> 00:10:45.549
that's a new rule.
483
00:10:45.630 --> 00:10:46.770
We might put that on the predictable,
484
00:10:46.789 --> 00:10:46.950
uh,
485
00:10:47.030 --> 00:10:47.549
constitution.
486
00:10:47.590 --> 00:10:48.130
I don't know.
487
00:10:48.390 --> 00:10:48.710
Uh,
488
00:10:48.830 --> 00:10:49.280
after,
489
00:10:49.469 --> 00:10:50.750
after Francesca Hong,
490
00:10:50.869 --> 00:10:52.809
I may never believe another poll in that state.
491
00:10:53.109 --> 00:10:54.489
But Michigan's been really bad too,
492
00:10:54.590 --> 00:10:57.710
and it's been bad the same way over and over again.
493
00:10:58.340 --> 00:10:59.049
And you could say,
494
00:10:59.099 --> 00:10:59.210
well,
495
00:10:59.219 --> 00:11:01.020
polls always are against the Republicans.
496
00:11:01.099 --> 00:11:01.820
That's not true.
497
00:11:01.859 --> 00:11:02.640
When you look back,
498
00:11:03.059 --> 00:11:03.429
uh,
499
00:11:03.580 --> 00:11:04.919
year after year after year,
500
00:11:05.700 --> 00:11:07.739
most midterms recently have been pretty good,
501
00:11:07.820 --> 00:11:09.549
pretty accurate when it comes to polling.
502
00:11:09.979 --> 00:11:10.380
Um,
503
00:11:10.700 --> 00:11:11.169
uh,
504
00:11:11.380 --> 00:11:12.299
during presidential years,
505
00:11:12.380 --> 00:11:13.049
they've
506
00:11:13.659 --> 00:11:14.880
typically favored.
507
00:11:15.309 --> 00:11:15.770
Uh,
508
00:11:15.869 --> 00:11:16.070
uh,
509
00:11:16.429 --> 00:11:16.739
Democrats,
510
00:11:16.869 --> 00:11:17.229
they've been,
511
00:11:17.270 --> 00:11:17.619
uh,
512
00:11:17.869 --> 00:11:20.969
positive for Democrats when they should have been more positive for Republicans
513
00:11:21.109 --> 00:11:22.140
the last few times.
514
00:11:22.390 --> 00:11:23.169
If you go back,
515
00:11:23.349 --> 00:11:23.510
uh,
516
00:11:23.630 --> 00:11:24.830
to 2012,
517
00:11:24.909 --> 00:11:25.750
it was the opposite.
518
00:11:25.989 --> 00:11:28.809
It was actually a little bit favored toward Republicans.
519
00:11:29.109 --> 00:11:29.469
Um,
520
00:11:29.590 --> 00:11:30.429
but during the Trump era,
521
00:11:30.469 --> 00:11:31.059
it's been,
522
00:11:31.469 --> 00:11:33.219
it's been against Trump three straight times.
523
00:11:33.429 --> 00:11:34.830
The biggest error of which,
524
00:11:34.950 --> 00:11:35.270
by the way,
525
00:11:35.380 --> 00:11:36.099
if you don't know this,
526
00:11:36.309 --> 00:11:37.750
was actually 2020.
527
00:11:38.200 --> 00:11:38.330
Uh,
528
00:11:38.369 --> 00:11:39.200
2020,
529
00:11:39.210 --> 00:11:39.320
uh,
530
00:11:39.450 --> 00:11:41.530
had the biggest polling error of the three races.
531
00:11:41.650 --> 00:11:43.229
That's the one he actually lost,
532
00:11:43.489 --> 00:11:43.599
uh,
533
00:11:43.690 --> 00:11:43.950
but
534
00:11:44.159 --> 00:11:46.080
that was the biggest polling error because they had Biden with
535
00:11:46.080 --> 00:11:48.750
a big lead that he barely won in that particular race.
536
00:11:49.130 --> 00:11:49.849
We've seen this though,
537
00:11:49.969 --> 00:11:50.080
uh,
538
00:11:50.169 --> 00:11:52.330
over and over again in Michigan where even
539
00:11:52.330 --> 00:11:54.849
though the midterm polling has been halfway decent.
540
00:11:55.580 --> 00:11:56.500
Still in Michigan,
541
00:11:56.619 --> 00:11:58.419
this has played out over and over and over again.
542
00:11:58.530 --> 00:11:58.799
Um,
543
00:11:59.020 --> 00:11:59.659
2018,
544
00:11:59.780 --> 00:12:01.780
John James against Debbie Stabenow.
545
00:12:02.059 --> 00:12:05.260
Stabenow was favored by 19 at the beginning of October
546
00:12:05.460 --> 00:12:06.219
and wound up,
547
00:12:06.299 --> 00:12:06.570
um,
548
00:12:06.859 --> 00:12:09.719
winning only by 6.4 points in 2020.
549
00:12:09.929 --> 00:12:10.299
James,
550
00:12:10.309 --> 00:12:10.559
uh,
551
00:12:10.580 --> 00:12:11.140
against Peters.
552
00:12:11.219 --> 00:12:12.700
Peters was favored by 6 points.
553
00:12:12.979 --> 00:12:14.840
Peters won by 1.7.
554
00:12:15.059 --> 00:12:15.219
Uh,
555
00:12:15.299 --> 00:12:16.510
in 2024,
556
00:12:16.859 --> 00:12:18.559
Slotkin was favored by 5.
557
00:12:18.780 --> 00:12:21.400
Slotkin only won by 0.3.
558
00:12:21.719 --> 00:12:22.049
Um,
559
00:12:22.130 --> 00:12:22.510
and then,
560
00:12:22.609 --> 00:12:22.760
uh,
561
00:12:22.809 --> 00:12:23.250
this is the,
562
00:12:23.330 --> 00:12:23.530
of course,
563
00:12:23.640 --> 00:12:24.250
El Sayed one.
564
00:12:24.289 --> 00:12:24.859
This is closer,
565
00:12:24.890 --> 00:12:25.130
by the way,
566
00:12:25.169 --> 00:12:26.049
than any of those races.
567
00:12:26.159 --> 00:12:28.270
El Sayed only up by 3.5 points.
568
00:12:28.570 --> 00:12:29.710
If any of these
569
00:12:30.090 --> 00:12:31.450
errors happen again,
570
00:12:31.770 --> 00:12:32.690
Rodgers will win.
571
00:12:32.760 --> 00:12:34.590
I think this is a legitimate toss-up race.
572
00:12:35.130 --> 00:12:35.619
I do.
573
00:12:35.700 --> 00:12:35.969
Um,
574
00:12:36.049 --> 00:12:36.080
I,
575
00:12:36.530 --> 00:12:37.330
especially in Michigan.
576
00:12:37.409 --> 00:12:37.489
I,
577
00:12:37.559 --> 00:12:39.030
I don't trust the polling there at all,
578
00:12:39.390 --> 00:12:42.549
and it seems to go the same way over and over and over again in the state.
579
00:12:42.809 --> 00:12:45.650
I think while you see a lead for El Sayed in that poll,
580
00:12:45.729 --> 00:12:48.570
you see a lot of 345 point leads for El Sayed.
581
00:12:48.929 --> 00:12:51.349
I still think this is a pure toss-up race right now.
582
00:12:51.669 --> 00:12:52.739
We will see what goes on.
583
00:12:52.809 --> 00:12:53.119
It's a,
584
00:12:53.210 --> 00:12:54.799
it's a very Democratic year though,
585
00:12:55.059 --> 00:12:55.890
and if that is,
586
00:12:55.950 --> 00:12:56.989
if that holds,
587
00:12:57.289 --> 00:12:59.729
you may wind up still seeing El Sayed get over the finish line.
588
00:12:59.849 --> 00:12:59.989
Now,
589
00:13:00.010 --> 00:13:02.309
Barack Obama is going to be campaigning with El Sayed
590
00:13:02.409 --> 00:13:04.080
in Michigan to try to get him over.
591
00:13:04.250 --> 00:13:06.669
That is a very specific thing we just talked about.
592
00:13:06.890 --> 00:13:09.159
He has weakness among black voters,
593
00:13:09.380 --> 00:13:10.830
and Barack Obama's coming in
594
00:13:11.049 --> 00:13:12.359
to try to win those voters over.
595
00:13:12.570 --> 00:13:13.270
That's
596
00:13:13.409 --> 00:13:13.969
the approach here.
597
00:13:14.049 --> 00:13:14.729
That's what they're doing.
598
00:13:15.090 --> 00:13:17.599
AOC says if Abdul can win in Michigan,
599
00:13:17.929 --> 00:13:19.099
anyone can win anywhere.
600
00:13:19.359 --> 00:13:19.820
Um,
601
00:13:20.080 --> 00:13:20.190
you know,
602
00:13:20.280 --> 00:13:20.440
again,
603
00:13:20.640 --> 00:13:20.950
she's,
604
00:13:21.070 --> 00:13:21.200
you know,
605
00:13:21.359 --> 00:13:21.780
not a,
606
00:13:22.320 --> 00:13:23.260
not the brightest bulb,
607
00:13:23.559 --> 00:13:23.799
uh,
608
00:13:23.880 --> 00:13:24.390
as we know,
609
00:13:24.599 --> 00:13:24.950
of course,
610
00:13:25.219 --> 00:13:25.840
winning in a,
611
00:13:25.989 --> 00:13:26.390
in a,
612
00:13:26.429 --> 00:13:27.179
uh,
613
00:13:27.679 --> 00:13:31.119
purplish state in a very blue year does not prove at
614
00:13:31.119 --> 00:13:34.000
all that a socialist can win in a red state.
615
00:13:34.099 --> 00:13:34.229
I mean,
616
00:13:34.359 --> 00:13:36.059
this is just not at all what it says,
617
00:13:36.320 --> 00:13:37.460
but what she's lining up,
618
00:13:37.679 --> 00:13:39.559
lining up for here is a presidential run.
619
00:13:39.969 --> 00:13:40.630
And she's saying,
620
00:13:40.729 --> 00:13:40.880
look,
621
00:13:40.929 --> 00:13:41.770
you can run Socialist.
622
00:13:41.849 --> 00:13:42.390
I can win.
623
00:13:42.770 --> 00:13:42.890
Look,
624
00:13:42.969 --> 00:13:43.809
we won Michigan.
625
00:13:44.090 --> 00:13:45.979
She's trying to make that point and get out ahead of it.
626
00:13:46.250 --> 00:13:46.650
Slate,
627
00:13:46.770 --> 00:13:47.000
uh,
628
00:13:47.010 --> 00:13:50.250
talks about the black voters skeptical of of Abdul Sayed,
629
00:13:50.289 --> 00:13:51.510
as we pointed out
630
00:13:51.729 --> 00:13:53.090
and brings up some interesting points here.
631
00:13:53.169 --> 00:13:53.440
This is,
632
00:13:53.450 --> 00:13:53.650
uh,
633
00:13:53.809 --> 00:13:54.159
again,
634
00:13:54.169 --> 00:13:54.609
another poll.
635
00:13:54.650 --> 00:13:57.510
This is the Washington Post poll
636
00:13:57.770 --> 00:13:59.109
September 10th to the 14th
637
00:13:59.330 --> 00:14:01.030
that has El Sayed up 3,
638
00:14:01.250 --> 00:14:03.549
different set of data here but has kind of an interesting,
639
00:14:03.690 --> 00:14:04.270
um,
640
00:14:04.349 --> 00:14:05.979
echo to what we just talked about.
641
00:14:07.320 --> 00:14:09.330
You see Rodgers is down 48 to 45.
642
00:14:09.690 --> 00:14:09.960
Democrats,
643
00:14:10.049 --> 00:14:10.609
and again,
644
00:14:10.690 --> 00:14:13.130
once again we see that same split where Republicans are
645
00:14:13.130 --> 00:14:15.289
supporting their guy more than Democrats are supporting theirs.
646
00:14:15.369 --> 00:14:17.070
That's not normal in this climate.
647
00:14:17.409 --> 00:14:18.960
El Sayed is a weak candidate.
648
00:14:19.010 --> 00:14:21.869
This is the one race they really picked the weak candidate.
649
00:14:22.210 --> 00:14:22.369
Uh,
650
00:14:22.530 --> 00:14:22.729
well,
651
00:14:22.840 --> 00:14:23.010
you know,
652
00:14:23.090 --> 00:14:23.760
other races,
653
00:14:23.969 --> 00:14:24.049
you know,
654
00:14:24.169 --> 00:14:24.919
someone like Tallarico,
655
00:14:24.969 --> 00:14:25.530
who I think is,
656
00:14:25.599 --> 00:14:25.770
you know,
657
00:14:25.890 --> 00:14:26.500
ridiculous.
658
00:14:26.570 --> 00:14:28.169
I mean I can't even believe he's competitive,
659
00:14:28.409 --> 00:14:31.690
but he polls really well and he polls as a stronger candidate.
660
00:14:32.140 --> 00:14:33.450
You see the black vote here,
661
00:14:33.500 --> 00:14:35.099
67 to 22,
662
00:14:35.340 --> 00:14:35.530
um,
663
00:14:35.599 --> 00:14:36.599
a little bit more,
664
00:14:36.739 --> 00:14:37.190
um,
665
00:14:37.270 --> 00:14:37.530
uh,
666
00:14:37.539 --> 00:14:38.890
made up minds here,
667
00:14:38.900 --> 00:14:41.960
and some of the undecideds from our other polls seem to
668
00:14:42.219 --> 00:14:43.359
leak into
669
00:14:44.000 --> 00:14:45.260
the Republican side here.
670
00:14:45.380 --> 00:14:45.530
If,
671
00:14:45.580 --> 00:14:45.919
if,
672
00:14:46.260 --> 00:14:46.659
honestly,
673
00:14:46.739 --> 00:14:49.700
if Rodgers can get a number like 22% of black voters,
674
00:14:49.979 --> 00:14:52.419
he's got a really good chance to win this race overall.
675
00:14:52.739 --> 00:14:52.940
Uh,
676
00:14:53.020 --> 00:14:53.969
one other thing I'll point out here,
677
00:14:54.099 --> 00:14:54.960
would you support
678
00:14:55.099 --> 00:14:56.380
a Muslim for president?
679
00:14:56.859 --> 00:14:57.419
Um,
680
00:14:57.710 --> 00:14:58.030
uh,
681
00:14:58.190 --> 00:14:58.780
or not,
682
00:14:58.989 --> 00:14:59.710
if you said yes,
683
00:14:59.789 --> 00:15:00.109
you would,
684
00:15:00.190 --> 00:15:03.030
you're voting for El Sayed 76 to 18%.
685
00:15:03.210 --> 00:15:05.539
Still 18% of people going against that.
686
00:15:05.739 --> 00:15:06.750
If you would not support,
687
00:15:06.909 --> 00:15:08.109
this is a very weird poll,
688
00:15:08.169 --> 00:15:08.450
but,
689
00:15:08.640 --> 00:15:08.820
uh,
690
00:15:08.830 --> 00:15:11.219
if you would not support a Muslim for president,
691
00:15:11.630 --> 00:15:12.780
still 18% would be like,
692
00:15:12.840 --> 00:15:12.909
yeah,
693
00:15:12.989 --> 00:15:14.150
but I'm gonna vote for him for Senate.
694
00:15:14.340 --> 00:15:14.590
OK,
695
00:15:14.710 --> 00:15:15.340
I'm fine,
696
00:15:15.500 --> 00:15:15.549
uh,
697
00:15:15.630 --> 00:15:17.270
but that's uh 75% to 18%.
698
00:15:17.590 --> 00:15:19.859
Interesting point here as well in the Slate article,
699
00:15:19.909 --> 00:15:20.460
which I don't,
700
00:15:20.739 --> 00:15:21.929
I don't always say those words.
701
00:15:22.429 --> 00:15:23.020
To be clear,
702
00:15:23.309 --> 00:15:23.440
uh,
703
00:15:23.559 --> 00:15:24.580
the questions still surround,
704
00:15:24.679 --> 00:15:24.799
uh,
705
00:15:24.960 --> 00:15:27.580
Al Sayed's campaign about whether he can bring over black voters.
706
00:15:27.840 --> 00:15:27.950
Uh,
707
00:15:28.000 --> 00:15:30.030
he lost Detroit by 28 points.
708
00:15:30.280 --> 00:15:31.400
Haley Stevens won the,
709
00:15:31.559 --> 00:15:31.880
won the,
710
00:15:31.960 --> 00:15:32.469
uh,
711
00:15:32.679 --> 00:15:32.989
won the,
712
00:15:33.039 --> 00:15:33.159
uh,
713
00:15:33.280 --> 00:15:34.080
race handily.
714
00:15:34.359 --> 00:15:36.039
In nearly every national
715
00:15:36.359 --> 00:15:37.090
interview with El Sayed,
716
00:15:37.159 --> 00:15:39.799
he's asked about the concerns of Jewish voters in Michigan,
717
00:15:40.039 --> 00:15:40.700
in Michigan,
718
00:15:40.840 --> 00:15:43.460
who make up about 1.5 to 2% of the voters.
719
00:15:43.880 --> 00:15:48.280
He's rarely asked about the concerns of black voters who make up 11 to 12%
720
00:15:48.400 --> 00:15:49.270
of those voters.
721
00:15:49.840 --> 00:15:51.960
Democrats traditionally do not have a plausible path to
722
00:15:51.960 --> 00:15:54.390
statewide victory without a strong black voter turnout.
723
00:15:54.599 --> 00:15:56.719
And if the Washington Post poll is any indication,
724
00:15:56.789 --> 00:15:58.900
El Sayed is a lot of ground to make up
725
00:15:59.039 --> 00:15:59.669
with those voters.
726
00:15:59.760 --> 00:16:03.190
About 83% of black voters said they wanted Democrats to control the Senate,
727
00:16:03.440 --> 00:16:05.460
but only 67% said they black
728
00:16:05.599 --> 00:16:06.159
El Sayed,
729
00:16:06.239 --> 00:16:07.059
which would be key.
730
00:16:07.280 --> 00:16:08.359
And someone asked me the other day,
731
00:16:08.479 --> 00:16:08.559
hey,
732
00:16:08.640 --> 00:16:08.880
what's the,
733
00:16:08.960 --> 00:16:09.900
what's the one race
734
00:16:10.280 --> 00:16:10.900
that could
735
00:16:11.159 --> 00:16:11.840
turn the Senate?
736
00:16:13.049 --> 00:16:13.289
You know,
737
00:16:13.409 --> 00:16:14.929
there's a lot of races I talk about a lot.
738
00:16:15.609 --> 00:16:19.000
Texas is kind of the big sexy one that everyone's maybe focusing on.
739
00:16:19.250 --> 00:16:19.359
Uh,
740
00:16:19.450 --> 00:16:21.049
Iowa is a race I talk about a lot,
741
00:16:21.169 --> 00:16:21.239
uh,
742
00:16:21.369 --> 00:16:22.250
being Ashley Hinson,
743
00:16:22.359 --> 00:16:23.669
one of my bigger positions
744
00:16:23.849 --> 00:16:25.119
in this particular election,
745
00:16:25.409 --> 00:16:25.559
uh,
746
00:16:25.609 --> 00:16:27.150
which is a very close race.
747
00:16:27.289 --> 00:16:27.609
But really,
748
00:16:27.650 --> 00:16:29.669
if you wanna talk about if there's one race
749
00:16:30.049 --> 00:16:33.710
that I could see the result on it and see how this would turn the Senate,
750
00:16:34.130 --> 00:16:35.440
it would be if El Sayed loses,
751
00:16:35.489 --> 00:16:37.609
I don't think the Republicans are gonna lose the Senate.
752
00:16:38.030 --> 00:16:39.390
I think it's one of those things that if,
753
00:16:39.429 --> 00:16:42.190
if we're in an environment that is friendly enough to Republicans
754
00:16:42.469 --> 00:16:42.890
where
755
00:16:43.109 --> 00:16:45.630
a really bad Democratic candidate in a purple
756
00:16:45.630 --> 00:16:48.409
state can lose to a decent Republican candidate,
757
00:16:48.909 --> 00:16:52.390
that to me says the climate is not right for the Democrats to take the Senate.
758
00:16:52.710 --> 00:16:54.859
Now they can still win the Senate by losing the seat,
759
00:16:54.909 --> 00:16:55.469
but I think that,
760
00:16:55.549 --> 00:16:56.159
that would be the one.
761
00:16:56.190 --> 00:16:56.349
If,
762
00:16:56.510 --> 00:16:58.609
if I knew El Sayed was going to lose
763
00:16:58.830 --> 00:16:59.690
in this race,
764
00:17:00.030 --> 00:17:02.929
I would be very favorable on the Republican Senate.
765
00:17:03.320 --> 00:17:03.479
Uh,
766
00:17:03.559 --> 00:17:04.140
looking forward.
767
00:17:04.199 --> 00:17:04.358
Now,
768
00:17:04.439 --> 00:17:04.880
um,
769
00:17:05.118 --> 00:17:05.949
Muslim Brotherhood,
770
00:17:06.000 --> 00:17:06.280
uh,
771
00:17:06.358 --> 00:17:07.670
is another thing that's being,
772
00:17:07.680 --> 00:17:08.180
uh,
773
00:17:08.520 --> 00:17:09.300
talked about.
774
00:17:09.880 --> 00:17:10.598
El Sayed
775
00:17:10.760 --> 00:17:12.680
won't condemn the Muslim Brotherhood.
776
00:17:12.760 --> 00:17:13.219
We have a
777
00:17:13.520 --> 00:17:14.140
clip here.
778
00:17:14.239 --> 00:17:14.760
Let's play this.
779
00:17:14.800 --> 00:17:15.719
This is from Fox News.
780
00:17:15.800 --> 00:17:16.469
Martha McCallum.
781
00:17:16.579 --> 00:17:17.810
I will say this about El Sayed,
782
00:17:17.920 --> 00:17:19.380
he's very confident in himself,
783
00:17:19.920 --> 00:17:21.020
very self-assured,
784
00:17:21.319 --> 00:17:21.858
um,
785
00:17:22.290 --> 00:17:22.430
really,
786
00:17:23.000 --> 00:17:25.098
El Sayyed really likes El Sayed.
787
00:17:25.598 --> 00:17:26.199
Big fan,
788
00:17:26.280 --> 00:17:27.780
like he loves himself,
789
00:17:27.829 --> 00:17:28.300
uh,
790
00:17:28.719 --> 00:17:30.839
probably thousands of mirrors.
791
00:17:31.339 --> 00:17:31.500
Uh,
792
00:17:31.560 --> 00:17:32.089
in his home.
793
00:17:32.300 --> 00:17:33.619
He really likes looking at himself,
794
00:17:33.780 --> 00:17:34.859
really likes hearing himself talk,
795
00:17:34.979 --> 00:17:35.939
really likes going on these shows,
796
00:17:35.979 --> 00:17:36.880
and to his credit,
797
00:17:37.260 --> 00:17:38.410
we'll even go on shows like,
798
00:17:38.459 --> 00:17:38.619
you know,
799
00:17:38.739 --> 00:17:38.890
uh,
800
00:17:38.969 --> 00:17:42.239
on Fox News with Martha McCallum because she's gonna ask some tough questions.
801
00:17:42.930 --> 00:17:43.099
Uh,
802
00:17:43.209 --> 00:17:44.500
here's a sample of that interview.
803
00:17:45.099 --> 00:17:46.739
We have the United States has terror
804
00:17:46.739 --> 00:17:50.130
designations on Muslim Brotherhood organizations in Lebanon,
805
00:17:50.459 --> 00:17:51.140
Egypt,
806
00:17:51.380 --> 00:17:52.140
and Jordan.
807
00:17:52.500 --> 00:17:54.449
So if you become a US senator,
808
00:17:54.619 --> 00:17:57.500
will you support those terrorist designations of those
809
00:17:57.500 --> 00:18:00.839
groups in order to support US national security?
810
00:18:01.300 --> 00:18:03.579
I think terrorism is the act of political violence,
811
00:18:03.859 --> 00:18:07.040
so I will support a terror designation for any organization that is
812
00:18:07.420 --> 00:18:09.219
engaged in or committed to political violence.
813
00:18:09.380 --> 00:18:12.180
Do you support the designations of the Muslim Brotherhood in those?
814
00:18:12.260 --> 00:18:13.000
I want to understand.
815
00:18:13.760 --> 00:18:14.729
Show me that they're engaged.
816
00:18:14.800 --> 00:18:17.390
Any organization is engaged in political violence.
817
00:18:18.270 --> 00:18:19.219
I will back a terrorist.
818
00:18:19.300 --> 00:18:20.319
So on October 7th,
819
00:18:20.400 --> 00:18:22.439
the Egyptian chapter of the Muslim Brotherhood called
820
00:18:22.439 --> 00:18:24.160
for violent attacks against the United States,
821
00:18:24.239 --> 00:18:25.280
its partners and interests.
822
00:18:25.599 --> 00:18:29.319
The Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood supported Hamas,
823
00:18:29.800 --> 00:18:32.369
and they threatened Americans living in the region and our partners.
824
00:18:32.479 --> 00:18:34.239
So do you stand by those designations?
825
00:18:34.520 --> 00:18:35.000
As I said,
826
00:18:35.199 --> 00:18:38.699
any organization engaged in political violence or calling for political violence
827
00:18:38.920 --> 00:18:39.839
is engaged in terrorism,
828
00:18:39.920 --> 00:18:41.239
and I would support those designations.
829
00:18:43.160 --> 00:18:44.280
I just don't understand,
830
00:18:44.479 --> 00:18:45.719
I just don't understand these politicians.
831
00:18:45.839 --> 00:18:46.739
Just say yeah.
832
00:18:47.699 --> 00:18:48.310
If that's what you,
833
00:18:48.469 --> 00:18:48.589
now,
834
00:18:48.709 --> 00:18:49.020
of course,
835
00:18:49.109 --> 00:18:49.229
the,
836
00:18:49.290 --> 00:18:51.650
the reason probably is he doesn't want to say that
837
00:18:51.949 --> 00:18:52.989
cause he doesn't believe it,
838
00:18:53.189 --> 00:18:53.780
but like,
839
00:18:53.790 --> 00:18:54.869
why would you phrase it this way?
840
00:18:54.949 --> 00:18:55.030
Well,
841
00:18:55.109 --> 00:18:55.310
any,
842
00:18:55.430 --> 00:18:55.699
any,
843
00:18:55.790 --> 00:18:56.060
uh,
844
00:18:56.229 --> 00:18:56.849
any organization,
845
00:18:57.030 --> 00:18:57.150
well,
846
00:18:57.229 --> 00:19:00.229
here's 3 examples of them saying they want Americans dead.
847
00:19:00.310 --> 00:19:01.030
Is that enough for you?
848
00:19:01.119 --> 00:19:01.250
Well,
849
00:19:01.310 --> 00:19:03.430
any organization that talks about political violence,
850
00:19:03.530 --> 00:19:04.290
of course I'm against.
851
00:19:04.630 --> 00:19:05.770
Just say you're against them then.
852
00:19:05.989 --> 00:19:06.109
Uh,
853
00:19:06.160 --> 00:19:06.349
I mean,
854
00:19:06.410 --> 00:19:07.319
that shouldn't be that hard,
855
00:19:07.430 --> 00:19:09.189
but apparently it is for El Sayed.
856
00:19:09.229 --> 00:19:10.089
He was also asked
857
00:19:10.510 --> 00:19:11.349
about his big,
858
00:19:11.699 --> 00:19:12.439
big complaint.
859
00:19:12.750 --> 00:19:14.050
He does not like money in politics.
860
00:19:14.709 --> 00:19:14.989
Uh,
861
00:19:15.069 --> 00:19:15.589
he just,
862
00:19:15.599 --> 00:19:15.619
just,
863
00:19:15.630 --> 00:19:17.589
just thinks that's absolutely terrible,
864
00:19:17.670 --> 00:19:20.229
which obviously the first thing you do,
865
00:19:20.270 --> 00:19:21.260
if you believe that,
866
00:19:21.469 --> 00:19:24.449
is go out and campaign with Alex Soros.
867
00:19:26.339 --> 00:19:27.560
He was asked about that as well.
868
00:19:28.170 --> 00:19:30.949
You were fundraising in California last weekend.
869
00:19:31.089 --> 00:19:32.949
You're here in New York fundraising
870
00:19:33.300 --> 00:19:33.630
again,
871
00:19:33.770 --> 00:19:35.329
so all of this raises the obvious question
872
00:19:36.530 --> 00:19:37.109
about,
873
00:19:37.369 --> 00:19:37.890
let me ask you,
874
00:19:38.170 --> 00:19:39.400
here's what you said on the campaign trail.
875
00:19:39.410 --> 00:19:40.069
Let's play this.
876
00:19:41.979 --> 00:19:43.739
All I'm going to be talking about is getting money out of politics.
877
00:19:43.849 --> 00:19:46.099
It starts with getting money out of politics.
878
00:19:46.329 --> 00:19:49.160
The reason I'm so passionate about money out of politics is because
879
00:19:49.339 --> 00:19:51.859
the money in politics is about spending lots.
880
00:19:52.540 --> 00:19:52.859
OK,
881
00:19:52.939 --> 00:19:55.699
so here you are in Los Angeles with the Soros family.
882
00:19:56.089 --> 00:19:56.859
So my question is,
883
00:19:56.939 --> 00:20:01.800
how is this not taking money from billionaire oligarchs and power brokers?
884
00:20:01.959 --> 00:20:03.699
So when individuals want to give to my campaign,
885
00:20:03.810 --> 00:20:04.839
I welcome their support.
886
00:20:07.540 --> 00:20:08.150
He went on to say,
887
00:20:08.270 --> 00:20:08.390
well,
888
00:20:08.449 --> 00:20:09.869
it's the corporations that I don't want.
889
00:20:09.989 --> 00:20:10.060
Now,
890
00:20:10.109 --> 00:20:10.390
of course,
891
00:20:10.469 --> 00:20:13.229
corporations are funding all the super PACs that are running ads for him,
892
00:20:13.270 --> 00:20:13.510
and we,
893
00:20:13.569 --> 00:20:14.430
we all know how this works.
894
00:20:14.469 --> 00:20:14.790
I mean,
895
00:20:15.030 --> 00:20:15.150
again,
896
00:20:15.260 --> 00:20:15.630
he's not,
897
00:20:15.750 --> 00:20:17.030
he's not alone in being a,
898
00:20:17.069 --> 00:20:17.300
uh,
899
00:20:17.349 --> 00:20:17.770
uh,
900
00:20:17.900 --> 00:20:19.459
a smarmy sort of politician,
901
00:20:19.510 --> 00:20:20.130
but he's
902
00:20:20.550 --> 00:20:21.290
pretty good at it.
903
00:20:21.619 --> 00:20:21.989
Um,
904
00:20:22.150 --> 00:20:23.150
I don't know how he's gonna do in the debate.
905
00:20:23.260 --> 00:20:24.369
My guess is pretty well.
906
00:20:24.790 --> 00:20:24.979
Uh,
907
00:20:25.500 --> 00:20:27.780
he doesn't look flustered in these situations.
908
00:20:27.949 --> 00:20:29.619
He's generally speaking a,
909
00:20:29.670 --> 00:20:30.069
uh,
910
00:20:30.250 --> 00:20:30.510
I mean,
911
00:20:30.589 --> 00:20:31.589
he might have a bad moment.
912
00:20:31.630 --> 00:20:34.099
I think like the Muslim Brother Brotherhood thing's pretty weak,
913
00:20:34.189 --> 00:20:34.439
but
914
00:20:35.069 --> 00:20:36.709
I don't think he'll have a catastrophe.
915
00:20:36.829 --> 00:20:37.219
Like he's not,
916
00:20:37.300 --> 00:20:37.430
you know,
917
00:20:37.540 --> 00:20:38.219
we were talking about,
918
00:20:38.270 --> 00:20:38.569
uh,
919
00:20:38.589 --> 00:20:39.459
Darlene Graham,
920
00:20:39.469 --> 00:20:39.979
where she was like,
921
00:20:40.030 --> 00:20:42.030
I don't really have any expertise in that area.
922
00:20:42.109 --> 00:20:43.349
Like he's not gonna have that moment,
923
00:20:43.390 --> 00:20:44.050
I don't think.
924
00:20:44.430 --> 00:20:44.660
Um,
925
00:20:44.750 --> 00:20:46.109
he won't have that moment where it makes everyone go,
926
00:20:46.229 --> 00:20:46.349
whoa,
927
00:20:46.469 --> 00:20:46.550
whoa,
928
00:20:46.660 --> 00:20:46.750
whoa,
929
00:20:46.829 --> 00:20:47.089
what you,
930
00:20:47.150 --> 00:20:47.310
what,
931
00:20:47.430 --> 00:20:47.520
what,
932
00:20:47.680 --> 00:20:48.280
what is is that you do,
933
00:20:48.420 --> 00:20:48.989
is he doing?
934
00:20:49.310 --> 00:20:49.510
Um,
935
00:20:49.750 --> 00:20:51.630
but he will have moments they can exploit.
936
00:20:51.989 --> 00:20:52.099
Uh,
937
00:20:52.160 --> 00:20:52.869
it will be interesting,
938
00:20:52.949 --> 00:20:55.229
a really important debate coming up on Thursday in that race.
939
00:20:55.310 --> 00:20:57.069
This is what the markets look like right now.
940
00:20:57.150 --> 00:20:57.349
Uh,
941
00:20:57.469 --> 00:20:58.069
let's look at this one.
942
00:20:58.109 --> 00:20:59.530
It is a Calshi market.
943
00:20:59.829 --> 00:21:00.229
Uh,
944
00:21:00.310 --> 00:21:01.150
Abdul El Sayyed,
945
00:21:01.260 --> 00:21:02.290
74%.
946
00:21:02.680 --> 00:21:03.589
1 thing I just wanna look at,
947
00:21:03.619 --> 00:21:03.829
if you,
948
00:21:04.270 --> 00:21:04.430
Adam,
949
00:21:04.540 --> 00:21:05.719
go back to like April.
950
00:21:06.189 --> 00:21:07.030
If you go back to April,
951
00:21:07.109 --> 00:21:07.469
you have a,
952
00:21:07.550 --> 00:21:08.650
a race here,
953
00:21:08.699 --> 00:21:08.910
um,
954
00:21:09.109 --> 00:21:10.319
now this says Al Sayed,
955
00:21:10.430 --> 00:21:11.400
but this is the race,
956
00:21:11.469 --> 00:21:13.180
but this is by resolves by winning party.
957
00:21:13.229 --> 00:21:15.010
You see that under the main headline there.
958
00:21:15.469 --> 00:21:17.380
And the way they structure these markets is to say,
959
00:21:17.489 --> 00:21:17.579
well,
960
00:21:17.630 --> 00:21:18.880
is this Republican or Democrat?
961
00:21:18.979 --> 00:21:19.609
So before
962
00:21:20.150 --> 00:21:21.770
the actual primary happens,
963
00:21:22.229 --> 00:21:23.199
you have Al Sayed,
964
00:21:23.530 --> 00:21:26.589
but actually the Democratic Party had a 78% chance to win.
965
00:21:26.670 --> 00:21:28.530
People are assuming this is gonna be a Democratic year.
966
00:21:28.900 --> 00:21:30.180
And so it's at 78%.
967
00:21:30.420 --> 00:21:31.560
You see this start to get,
968
00:21:31.660 --> 00:21:31.810
uh,
969
00:21:31.859 --> 00:21:33.540
to kind of come down as people see,
970
00:21:33.619 --> 00:21:33.939
wait a minute,
971
00:21:34.020 --> 00:21:34.699
these polls are close.
972
00:21:34.859 --> 00:21:37.040
Haley Stevens might lose to El Sayed.
973
00:21:37.459 --> 00:21:40.560
It maintains that level of around 70% right there
974
00:21:41.099 --> 00:21:41.359
until
975
00:21:42.099 --> 00:21:42.880
primary day.
976
00:21:43.099 --> 00:21:44.739
And you see on primary day,
977
00:21:44.780 --> 00:21:47.800
it drops all the way to a 55-44 race,
978
00:21:48.260 --> 00:21:51.959
where Rodgers is all the way up to almost a 50/50 shot
979
00:21:52.099 --> 00:21:52.760
at winning.
980
00:21:53.180 --> 00:21:55.189
What the markets have actually decided here.
981
00:21:55.949 --> 00:21:59.510
now they are as sure as they were before the primary
982
00:21:59.790 --> 00:22:01.430
that El Sayed is going to win.
983
00:22:01.510 --> 00:22:02.339
He's up now to what,
984
00:22:02.390 --> 00:22:03.949
77%,
985
00:22:04.040 --> 00:22:05.050
74%.
986
00:22:05.630 --> 00:22:06.089
So,
987
00:22:06.750 --> 00:22:07.250
basically,
988
00:22:07.310 --> 00:22:09.849
there was a worry that El Sayed is a bad candidate.
989
00:22:09.910 --> 00:22:11.189
He's gonna be a weaker candidate.
990
00:22:11.349 --> 00:22:13.569
The markets have shunned that aside
991
00:22:14.069 --> 00:22:14.500
and said,
992
00:22:14.510 --> 00:22:18.589
we still think he's now as sure a thing as we did before this primary even took place.
993
00:22:18.650 --> 00:22:20.180
It's kind of a remarkable move.
994
00:22:20.469 --> 00:22:21.020
He's been very,
995
00:22:21.089 --> 00:22:22.290
very positive lately.
996
00:22:22.459 --> 00:22:22.579
Uh,
997
00:22:22.630 --> 00:22:23.810
his polls are
998
00:22:24.030 --> 00:22:25.369
on the right side of things.
999
00:22:26.040 --> 00:22:27.229
If you look strictly at the polls,
1000
00:22:27.270 --> 00:22:29.560
you'd rather be El Sayyed right now that he has a slight lead.
1001
00:22:29.790 --> 00:22:30.000
However,
1002
00:22:30.079 --> 00:22:30.900
I still have that
1003
00:22:31.119 --> 00:22:32.359
in the toss-up category.
1004
00:22:32.439 --> 00:22:34.359
We're gonna do a little bit about the Senate board here in a,
1005
00:22:34.410 --> 00:22:34.560
in a,
1006
00:22:34.650 --> 00:22:35.119
in a minute.
1007
00:22:35.439 --> 00:22:37.160
So maybe we'll get into that and I'll show you where my,
1008
00:22:37.199 --> 00:22:37.430
uh,
1009
00:22:37.479 --> 00:22:39.119
where my current positions are
1010
00:22:39.359 --> 00:22:39.880
in the Senate.
1011
00:22:40.040 --> 00:22:40.760
But El Sayed,
1012
00:22:40.849 --> 00:22:42.280
I think that's a 50/50 race.
1013
00:22:42.359 --> 00:22:43.560
I think that is a toss-up right now.
1014
00:22:43.640 --> 00:22:47.550
Rodgers actually has a real chance to win in a very difficult year for Republicans.
1015
00:22:47.880 --> 00:22:48.119
So that,
1016
00:22:48.239 --> 00:22:48.349
that,
1017
00:22:48.439 --> 00:22:48.640
that,
1018
00:22:48.719 --> 00:22:48.910
uh,
1019
00:22:48.969 --> 00:22:50.540
I'm gonna be watching very closely
1020
00:22:50.760 --> 00:22:51.819
when it comes to the debate
1021
00:22:52.000 --> 00:22:52.599
on Thursday.
1022
00:22:52.719 --> 00:22:52.819
All right,
1023
00:22:52.869 --> 00:22:53.319
we're gonna take a break.
1024
00:22:53.400 --> 00:22:53.920
Back in a second.
1025
00:23:12.839 --> 00:23:14.589
We've got a lot of talk about waves,
1026
00:23:14.640 --> 00:23:16.020
wave elections are coming.
1027
00:23:16.439 --> 00:23:17.619
The blue wave
1028
00:23:17.839 --> 00:23:18.439
we've seen before,
1029
00:23:18.479 --> 00:23:19.359
the red wave.
1030
00:23:19.430 --> 00:23:20.270
There's always a wave,
1031
00:23:20.359 --> 00:23:21.500
then there's a tsunami.
1032
00:23:21.959 --> 00:23:22.000
What,
1033
00:23:22.119 --> 00:23:22.239
what,
1034
00:23:22.329 --> 00:23:23.040
how do we get above,
1035
00:23:23.099 --> 00:23:24.699
what's above that apocalypse?
1036
00:23:25.040 --> 00:23:25.239
Uh,
1037
00:23:25.319 --> 00:23:26.069
whatever it is,
1038
00:23:26.359 --> 00:23:27.359
there's always a wave talk,
1039
00:23:27.469 --> 00:23:29.829
and the wave kind of meaning like one side just kind of dominates,
1040
00:23:29.880 --> 00:23:30.030
right?
1041
00:23:30.089 --> 00:23:31.339
Like does better than expectations,
1042
00:23:31.599 --> 00:23:32.300
kind of blows
1043
00:23:32.479 --> 00:23:33.079
things out of the water.
1044
00:23:33.150 --> 00:23:35.020
The biggest wave we've seen in our lifetime,
1045
00:23:35.479 --> 00:23:35.640
uh,
1046
00:23:35.719 --> 00:23:36.739
was 2010,
1047
00:23:36.839 --> 00:23:37.880
the Tea Party wave,
1048
00:23:38.000 --> 00:23:38.819
which was the biggest,
1049
00:23:38.839 --> 00:23:39.150
uh,
1050
00:23:39.160 --> 00:23:40.739
wave election in a century.
1051
00:23:41.160 --> 00:23:41.319
Um,
1052
00:23:41.400 --> 00:23:42.209
but we've seen others.
1053
00:23:42.339 --> 00:23:42.349
Uh,
1054
00:23:42.359 --> 00:23:44.390
2006 was really bad for Republicans.
1055
00:23:44.479 --> 00:23:44.640
Uh,
1056
00:23:44.719 --> 00:23:46.099
2010 was really good for,
1057
00:23:46.420 --> 00:23:46.430
uh,
1058
00:23:46.520 --> 00:23:46.780
excuse me,
1059
00:23:46.959 --> 00:23:47.000
yeah,
1060
00:23:47.109 --> 00:23:48.760
really bad for Republicans in 2006,
1061
00:23:49.319 --> 00:23:49.619
really,
1062
00:23:49.719 --> 00:23:49.959
uh,
1063
00:23:50.040 --> 00:23:51.819
pretty bad for Republicans in 2008.
1064
00:23:52.170 --> 00:23:52.439
Uh,
1065
00:23:52.560 --> 00:23:55.130
2010
1066
00:23:55.239 --> 00:23:56.130
was a huge wave,
1067
00:23:56.199 --> 00:23:56.839
as I mentioned,
1068
00:23:56.920 --> 00:23:58.030
for Republicans.
1069
00:23:58.390 --> 00:24:00.359
2014 was pretty good for Republicans,
1070
00:24:00.439 --> 00:24:01.199
2018,
1071
00:24:01.239 --> 00:24:02.310
pretty good for Democrats.
1072
00:24:02.599 --> 00:24:02.869
Um,
1073
00:24:03.000 --> 00:24:03.119
you know,
1074
00:24:03.199 --> 00:24:05.540
it's depending on your definition of wave,
1075
00:24:06.199 --> 00:24:08.199
all or some of those would qualify.
1076
00:24:08.609 --> 00:24:08.689
Uh,
1077
00:24:08.699 --> 00:24:09.489
2022,
1078
00:24:09.540 --> 00:24:10.939
there's a lot of talk about a red wave,
1079
00:24:11.020 --> 00:24:11.140
you know,
1080
00:24:11.260 --> 00:24:11.270
I,
1081
00:24:11.400 --> 00:24:12.300
and I mentioned this at the time,
1082
00:24:12.359 --> 00:24:13.119
the polling
1083
00:24:13.660 --> 00:24:14.640
really didn't support
1084
00:24:14.859 --> 00:24:15.500
a wave.
1085
00:24:15.579 --> 00:24:15.739
I mean,
1086
00:24:15.780 --> 00:24:17.849
it looked like it was gonna be a good year for Republicans.
1087
00:24:18.260 --> 00:24:20.369
Republicans did check the box by winning the House,
1088
00:24:20.420 --> 00:24:21.410
which they needed to do,
1089
00:24:21.739 --> 00:24:21.900
uh,
1090
00:24:21.979 --> 00:24:23.660
but it wasn't a great year for Republicans.
1091
00:24:23.900 --> 00:24:25.089
The wave was more of a ripple,
1092
00:24:25.099 --> 00:24:25.760
as they say.
1093
00:24:26.089 --> 00:24:26.260
Um,
1094
00:24:26.420 --> 00:24:28.060
so what is exactly a wave election?
1095
00:24:28.140 --> 00:24:30.140
Should Republicans be on high alert?
1096
00:24:30.390 --> 00:24:30.619
Um,
1097
00:24:30.780 --> 00:24:31.219
Nate Cohn,
1098
00:24:31.270 --> 00:24:33.209
who's one of the data guys over at The New York Times,
1099
00:24:33.219 --> 00:24:34.449
and actually does a good job over there,
1100
00:24:34.729 --> 00:24:36.489
unlike many other sections of the New York Times,
1101
00:24:36.500 --> 00:24:36.859
in my,
1102
00:24:37.010 --> 00:24:37.209
uh,
1103
00:24:37.380 --> 00:24:37.619
opinion.
1104
00:24:38.140 --> 00:24:38.359
Um,
1105
00:24:38.390 --> 00:24:38.770
but he says,
1106
00:24:38.829 --> 00:24:38.979
uh,
1107
00:24:38.989 --> 00:24:41.449
2026 wave implied by recent polling
1108
00:24:41.670 --> 00:24:43.229
would not be the biggest one in memory.
1109
00:24:43.349 --> 00:24:43.819
That distinction,
1110
00:24:43.869 --> 00:24:44.310
as we said,
1111
00:24:44.430 --> 00:24:45.939
belongs to 2010
1112
00:24:46.189 --> 00:24:47.280
when a GOP wave,
1113
00:24:47.670 --> 00:24:48.229
Democratic landslide,
1114
00:24:48.239 --> 00:24:49.609
a 17 point,
1115
00:24:49.900 --> 00:24:50.260
uh,
1116
00:24:50.390 --> 00:24:52.250
swing toward Republicans.
1117
00:24:52.630 --> 00:24:55.140
But that would be what we're seeing now would be,
1118
00:24:55.189 --> 00:24:55.859
as he says,
1119
00:24:56.430 --> 00:24:59.569
comparable to 2006 or 2018.
1120
00:24:59.949 --> 00:25:00.390
As a result,
1121
00:25:00.510 --> 00:25:01.949
many states and districts where Mr.
1122
00:25:02.109 --> 00:25:05.920
Trump or Republicans won easily in 2024 would be expected to come into play,
1123
00:25:06.310 --> 00:25:07.199
and we're seeing a lot of that,
1124
00:25:07.239 --> 00:25:07.410
uh,
1125
00:25:07.469 --> 00:25:07.910
right now.
1126
00:25:08.810 --> 00:25:09.199
Um,
1127
00:25:09.359 --> 00:25:09.619
uh,
1128
00:25:10.339 --> 00:25:11.609
Republicans are making the argument they're not saying,
1129
00:25:11.660 --> 00:25:11.770
well,
1130
00:25:11.819 --> 00:25:12.890
we're gonna have a red wave.
1131
00:25:13.250 --> 00:25:14.160
They're saying this,
1132
00:25:14.390 --> 00:25:14.540
uh,
1133
00:25:14.609 --> 00:25:16.900
midterms won't be a blue wave or a red wave,
1134
00:25:17.000 --> 00:25:18.619
only knife fights and dark alleys,
1135
00:25:18.859 --> 00:25:20.839
says the GOP campaign boss,
1136
00:25:21.099 --> 00:25:21.209
um,
1137
00:25:21.300 --> 00:25:22.459
kind of making the idea that like,
1138
00:25:22.540 --> 00:25:22.739
look,
1139
00:25:22.819 --> 00:25:26.410
even the Republicans aren't necessarily saying there's going to be a red wave.
1140
00:25:26.739 --> 00:25:29.239
So I bring all that up as kind of context to talk about.
1141
00:25:30.010 --> 00:25:31.089
Our candidate of the day,
1142
00:25:31.130 --> 00:25:31.359
and,
1143
00:25:31.390 --> 00:25:31.569
you know,
1144
00:25:31.609 --> 00:25:32.359
you might look at this and say,
1145
00:25:32.410 --> 00:25:32.489
well,
1146
00:25:32.560 --> 00:25:33.050
wait a minute,
1147
00:25:33.290 --> 00:25:34.729
that doesn't even work as a candidate of the day,
1148
00:25:34.770 --> 00:25:35.589
and here's the thing,
1149
00:25:35.849 --> 00:25:36.869
it's my show.
1150
00:25:37.989 --> 00:25:40.130
I get to make up the rules for all of these segments.
1151
00:25:40.310 --> 00:25:42.869
So if I want to make the candidate of the day this.
1152
00:25:43.599 --> 00:25:44.650
Then it's gonna be this.
1153
00:25:44.949 --> 00:25:45.479
Candidate of the day,
1154
00:25:45.550 --> 00:25:47.439
28 days until the midterms.
1155
00:25:47.550 --> 00:25:47.680
Yes,
1156
00:25:47.760 --> 00:25:48.800
our candidate of the day,
1157
00:25:48.959 --> 00:25:49.949
what does that look like right now?
1158
00:25:50.160 --> 00:25:52.229
That candidate is the red wave.
1159
00:25:52.640 --> 00:25:52.760
Yes,
1160
00:25:52.869 --> 00:25:54.390
the candidate of the day is the red wave,
1161
00:25:54.560 --> 00:25:55.920
and you may be disappointed in this,
1162
00:25:56.119 --> 00:25:57.839
but the no position.
1163
00:25:58.189 --> 00:25:59.420
On the red wave.
1164
00:25:59.459 --> 00:25:59.660
Now,
1165
00:25:59.770 --> 00:26:00.430
a wave,
1166
00:26:00.439 --> 00:26:01.949
you can come up with a bunch of different definitions.
1167
00:26:01.959 --> 00:26:02.709
We just talked about that.
1168
00:26:02.760 --> 00:26:03.380
The definition,
1169
00:26:03.780 --> 00:26:03.880
uh,
1170
00:26:03.890 --> 00:26:04.079
here,
1171
00:26:04.170 --> 00:26:06.189
an election cycle where the Republican Party achieves
1172
00:26:06.189 --> 00:26:08.060
a major surge in voter support and wins
1173
00:26:08.189 --> 00:26:11.180
a large number of seats or control across the government.
1174
00:26:11.479 --> 00:26:11.599
Well,
1175
00:26:11.709 --> 00:26:12.420
what's that definition?
1176
00:26:12.439 --> 00:26:14.040
That's not really the important definition.
1177
00:26:14.819 --> 00:26:17.300
The 2nd Amendment
1178
00:26:17.540 --> 00:26:18.939
to the predictable Constitution.
1179
00:26:19.099 --> 00:26:20.209
We have a predictable constitution,
1180
00:26:20.260 --> 00:26:20.640
by the way,
1181
00:26:20.729 --> 00:26:23.520
all of our rules that I use every day to to trade
1182
00:26:23.939 --> 00:26:24.849
on prediction markets,
1183
00:26:24.900 --> 00:26:26.920
it's up at predictableshow.com.
1184
00:26:27.459 --> 00:26:27.780
Free,
1185
00:26:28.010 --> 00:26:28.989
for you to look at all the time.
1186
00:26:29.060 --> 00:26:30.339
I want you to do well on these markets,
1187
00:26:30.459 --> 00:26:30.719
so,
1188
00:26:30.780 --> 00:26:31.199
uh,
1189
00:26:31.219 --> 00:26:33.119
use these rules cause they're usually rules
1190
00:26:33.689 --> 00:26:35.900
made by mistakes that I have participated in.
1191
00:26:35.969 --> 00:26:36.949
But our Second Amendment is,
1192
00:26:37.060 --> 00:26:38.119
you gotta read the rules.
1193
00:26:38.780 --> 00:26:40.859
It doesn't matter what the definition of the dictionary is or
1194
00:26:40.859 --> 00:26:42.729
the definition of the New York Times says it is.
1195
00:26:43.260 --> 00:26:45.459
What is the definition in this particular contract?
1196
00:26:45.540 --> 00:26:47.079
This is a Calci contract,
1197
00:26:47.420 --> 00:26:49.780
and it's interesting for a couple of different reasons.
1198
00:26:49.930 --> 00:26:51.150
Let me show you the market.
1199
00:26:51.500 --> 00:26:51.619
Uh,
1200
00:26:51.699 --> 00:26:52.180
this is a,
1201
00:26:52.260 --> 00:26:53.839
will there be a red wave
1202
00:26:54.099 --> 00:26:54.949
this year?
1203
00:26:55.180 --> 00:26:56.500
The chances are very low.
1204
00:26:56.660 --> 00:26:58.650
So there's not a massive profit opportunity here,
1205
00:26:58.699 --> 00:27:00.060
but there's a couple of things I like about this.
1206
00:27:00.180 --> 00:27:00.739
Number one,
1207
00:27:01.380 --> 00:27:01.500
Uh,
1208
00:27:01.579 --> 00:27:01.739
I,
1209
00:27:01.819 --> 00:27:01.979
you know,
1210
00:27:02.140 --> 00:27:02.959
you may know this,
1211
00:27:03.140 --> 00:27:04.199
I am a conservative.
1212
00:27:04.449 --> 00:27:04.739
Uh,
1213
00:27:04.900 --> 00:27:06.400
I like to hedge my life.
1214
00:27:06.609 --> 00:27:09.650
This is a really nice clean opportunity for you to hedge
1215
00:27:09.650 --> 00:27:12.680
your life if you happen to be a Republican or a conservative
1216
00:27:12.819 --> 00:27:14.609
rooting for red results,
1217
00:27:14.939 --> 00:27:15.050
uh,
1218
00:27:15.199 --> 00:27:16.469
because if you put no on here.
1219
00:27:17.060 --> 00:27:17.229
Um,
1220
00:27:17.390 --> 00:27:18.880
click over to the no position if you could,
1221
00:27:19.079 --> 00:27:19.239
Adam.
1222
00:27:19.310 --> 00:27:19.839
I don't know what that,
1223
00:27:19.880 --> 00:27:20.030
uh,
1224
00:27:20.119 --> 00:27:21.020
if you can do that,
1225
00:27:21.040 --> 00:27:21.069
uh,
1226
00:27:21.079 --> 00:27:21.680
or not,
1227
00:27:22.199 --> 00:27:23.280
given the way the screen is set up.
1228
00:27:23.319 --> 00:27:23.599
If not,
1229
00:27:23.650 --> 00:27:24.300
that's OK.
1230
00:27:24.479 --> 00:27:24.819
Um,
1231
00:27:25.359 --> 00:27:25.550
uh,
1232
00:27:25.920 --> 00:27:25.989
yeah,
1233
00:27:26.079 --> 00:27:26.579
so you're like,
1234
00:27:26.589 --> 00:27:26.609
you know,
1235
00:27:26.640 --> 00:27:27.660
in the mid-nineties here.
1236
00:27:27.719 --> 00:27:28.040
Um,
1237
00:27:28.150 --> 00:27:28.280
you know,
1238
00:27:28.599 --> 00:27:30.439
you can see 93.3 would be the,
1239
00:27:30.550 --> 00:27:30.959
the straight,
1240
00:27:31.109 --> 00:27:32.260
straight position from the latest trade.
1241
00:27:33.069 --> 00:27:33.530
Um,
1242
00:27:33.699 --> 00:27:34.869
is there a chance for a,
1243
00:27:34.910 --> 00:27:35.150
uh,
1244
00:27:35.270 --> 00:27:36.189
a red wave this year?
1245
00:27:36.500 --> 00:27:37.270
It's Gonna be really hard,
1246
00:27:37.390 --> 00:27:37.479
right?
1247
00:27:37.550 --> 00:27:38.949
This is a blue leaning year.
1248
00:27:39.030 --> 00:27:39.109
Now,
1249
00:27:39.189 --> 00:27:41.869
let's scroll down to the results or to the rules here for a moment.
1250
00:27:41.979 --> 00:27:42.150
Let's,
1251
00:27:42.260 --> 00:27:42.650
let's,
1252
00:27:42.910 --> 00:27:45.050
let's participate in the Second Amendment.
1253
00:27:45.300 --> 00:27:46.910
We love the Second Amendment here in this program.
1254
00:27:47.109 --> 00:27:47.550
Second Amendment,
1255
00:27:47.750 --> 00:27:48.500
read the rules.
1256
00:27:48.869 --> 00:27:49.420
This resolves,
1257
00:27:49.469 --> 00:27:49.900
yes,
1258
00:27:50.069 --> 00:27:50.650
if
1259
00:27:51.109 --> 00:27:53.770
all of the following occur for the 2026 midterms.
1260
00:27:54.069 --> 00:27:56.670
US House Republicans win 220 or more seats.
1261
00:27:56.849 --> 00:27:57.869
Stop for a second and think about that.
1262
00:27:57.949 --> 00:27:59.449
You only need 218 to win.
1263
00:27:59.829 --> 00:28:00.709
So in theory,
1264
00:28:01.119 --> 00:28:01.719
You could actually,
1265
00:28:01.800 --> 00:28:02.959
if you're in the no position here,
1266
00:28:03.040 --> 00:28:05.959
you could actually you could get control of the House
1267
00:28:05.959 --> 00:28:08.520
for Republicans and still win because it's not a wave.
1268
00:28:08.579 --> 00:28:08.859
Now,
1269
00:28:09.000 --> 00:28:10.670
I don't know why they picked 220 for a wave,
1270
00:28:10.719 --> 00:28:12.319
that doesn't scream wave to me,
1271
00:28:12.760 --> 00:28:13.739
but it is a victory.
1272
00:28:13.800 --> 00:28:15.270
It's a win for Republicans.
1273
00:28:15.520 --> 00:28:16.699
So 220 seats,
1274
00:28:16.920 --> 00:28:17.459
and then
1275
00:28:18.119 --> 00:28:20.880
Republicans hold 55 or more seats.
1276
00:28:22.020 --> 00:28:22.449
So,
1277
00:28:22.459 --> 00:28:22.979
that is a,
1278
00:28:23.060 --> 00:28:23.219
you know,
1279
00:28:23.260 --> 00:28:25.630
a really good year in the Senate.
1280
00:28:25.939 --> 00:28:27.930
Let me show you quickly the,
1281
00:28:27.939 --> 00:28:28.229
uh,
1282
00:28:28.239 --> 00:28:28.709
Senate board.
1283
00:28:28.810 --> 00:28:30.180
Do we have the Senate board live view.
1284
00:28:30.380 --> 00:28:30.689
This is,
1285
00:28:30.729 --> 00:28:31.140
uh,
1286
00:28:31.219 --> 00:28:32.780
this is available as well,
1287
00:28:32.900 --> 00:28:34.079
predictableShow.com.
1288
00:28:34.619 --> 00:28:36.280
We can go there and drag these states around
1289
00:28:36.859 --> 00:28:37.880
however you like.
1290
00:28:38.180 --> 00:28:38.339
Uh,
1291
00:28:38.410 --> 00:28:39.979
this is how my board is set up.
1292
00:28:40.050 --> 00:28:40.930
I think this is,
1293
00:28:41.180 --> 00:28:41.699
this looks,
1294
00:28:41.750 --> 00:28:41.890
yeah,
1295
00:28:41.979 --> 00:28:42.800
it looks pretty current.
1296
00:28:42.939 --> 00:28:44.119
I guess they updated it.
1297
00:28:44.339 --> 00:28:44.540
Um,
1298
00:28:44.619 --> 00:28:44.890
but,
1299
00:28:45.180 --> 00:28:47.380
so this is where I have it at 4949 right now.
1300
00:28:48.150 --> 00:28:50.349
Let's try to get to 55 for the heck of it,
1301
00:28:50.550 --> 00:28:51.300
for Republicans.
1302
00:28:51.569 --> 00:28:52.060
To do that,
1303
00:28:52.150 --> 00:28:52.770
you gotta give,
1304
00:28:52.989 --> 00:28:53.540
uh,
1305
00:28:53.550 --> 00:28:54.589
Michigan and Maine,
1306
00:28:54.660 --> 00:28:55.949
which are my two toss-up states,
1307
00:28:56.069 --> 00:28:59.339
drag those over to the Republican side to the lean R for a moment here.
1308
00:28:59.589 --> 00:29:01.310
That gets you only to 51.
1309
00:29:02.260 --> 00:29:03.780
How are you getting to 55 seats here?
1310
00:29:03.869 --> 00:29:03.880
Well,
1311
00:29:03.939 --> 00:29:06.420
let's give the lean Democrat states also to the Republicans.
1312
00:29:06.500 --> 00:29:07.439
That's Alaska
1313
00:29:07.660 --> 00:29:08.520
and Ohio.
1314
00:29:09.020 --> 00:29:10.479
That gets you to 53.
1315
00:29:10.739 --> 00:29:12.780
You still got to pick off 2 more seats here.
1316
00:29:12.900 --> 00:29:13.329
Now,
1317
00:29:13.579 --> 00:29:14.420
I will be honest with you,
1318
00:29:14.500 --> 00:29:15.880
I don't think there's any,
1319
00:29:16.140 --> 00:29:18.359
I don't think there's any reasonable chance
1320
00:29:18.589 --> 00:29:21.319
that Republicans are winning either Georgia or North Carolina.
1321
00:29:21.900 --> 00:29:23.380
So I guess to get to 55,
1322
00:29:23.420 --> 00:29:27.890
you've got to have Michelle Tafoya pick off Minnesota in a year like this,
1323
00:29:28.180 --> 00:29:28.579
and,
1324
00:29:28.619 --> 00:29:28.699
yeah,
1325
00:29:28.780 --> 00:29:29.520
drag that over.
1326
00:29:29.770 --> 00:29:30.979
And you gotta have,
1327
00:29:31.060 --> 00:29:31.839
uh,
1328
00:29:31.959 --> 00:29:32.579
Sununu,
1329
00:29:33.000 --> 00:29:34.359
whose polling is OK
1330
00:29:34.979 --> 00:29:35.930
in New Hampshire,
1331
00:29:36.260 --> 00:29:37.260
pick off Pappas,
1332
00:29:37.339 --> 00:29:38.579
that gets you to 55%.
1333
00:29:38.699 --> 00:29:40.439
That's really hard.
1334
00:29:40.530 --> 00:29:40.680
I mean,
1335
00:29:40.900 --> 00:29:41.479
that is,
1336
00:29:41.780 --> 00:29:43.680
that would be a shocking result
1337
00:29:44.099 --> 00:29:44.709
on election night.
1338
00:29:44.770 --> 00:29:44.859
Now,
1339
00:29:44.900 --> 00:29:45.739
you're paying for this,
1340
00:29:45.859 --> 00:29:46.000
right?
1341
00:29:46.089 --> 00:29:46.260
It's,
1342
00:29:46.359 --> 00:29:46.390
it's,
1343
00:29:46.489 --> 00:29:47.180
you're getting only like,
1344
00:29:47.300 --> 00:29:47.459
you know,
1345
00:29:47.540 --> 00:29:48.099
56,
1346
00:29:48.180 --> 00:29:48.979
7%.
1347
00:29:49.420 --> 00:29:50.180
On your money here.
1348
00:29:50.270 --> 00:29:51.920
So it's not like some miracle thing.
1349
00:29:52.260 --> 00:29:52.599
But
1350
00:29:52.900 --> 00:29:53.579
even
1351
00:29:53.939 --> 00:29:55.260
if you want to go on,
1352
00:29:55.300 --> 00:29:55.500
uh,
1353
00:29:55.589 --> 00:29:56.329
do we have,
1354
00:29:56.339 --> 00:29:56.869
um,
1355
00:29:57.760 --> 00:29:58.560
I don't have it in front of me.
1356
00:29:58.609 --> 00:29:59.410
If you can pull up the,
1357
00:29:59.439 --> 00:29:59.829
uh,
1358
00:29:59.839 --> 00:30:00.540
US House,
1359
00:30:01.099 --> 00:30:01.390
uh,
1360
00:30:01.400 --> 00:30:01.920
markets,
1361
00:30:02.040 --> 00:30:03.010
just who's gonna win the House,
1362
00:30:03.119 --> 00:30:03.359
Adam,
1363
00:30:03.640 --> 00:30:04.989
on poly market or on,
1364
00:30:05.000 --> 00:30:05.390
uh,
1365
00:30:05.800 --> 00:30:06.119
on,
1366
00:30:06.130 --> 00:30:07.099
uh,
1367
00:30:07.319 --> 00:30:07.739
uh,
1368
00:30:07.750 --> 00:30:08.339
over on,
1369
00:30:08.400 --> 00:30:11.709
or if you have the predict uh predictable market consensus or midterm consensus,
1370
00:30:11.719 --> 00:30:12.660
it's on there as well.
1371
00:30:13.079 --> 00:30:14.619
I don't know what that number currently is,
1372
00:30:15.000 --> 00:30:15.500
but like,
1373
00:30:15.839 --> 00:30:18.260
you gotta pay in the 90s just to get the house.
1374
00:30:18.680 --> 00:30:19.390
Where are we at now?
1375
00:30:19.520 --> 00:30:20.469
Uh,
1376
00:30:20.599 --> 00:30:20.770
this is,
1377
00:30:20.800 --> 00:30:20.959
OK,
1378
00:30:21.000 --> 00:30:23.089
this is actually a little bit of a mid,
1379
00:30:23.189 --> 00:30:24.140
this is actually both,
1380
00:30:24.199 --> 00:30:24.630
um,
1381
00:30:24.640 --> 00:30:24.880
sides.
1382
00:30:24.920 --> 00:30:25.579
But if you look at,
1383
00:30:25.640 --> 00:30:25.829
uh,
1384
00:30:25.920 --> 00:30:26.229
let's see,
1385
00:30:26.680 --> 00:30:27.119
Democrats.
1386
00:30:27.630 --> 00:30:28.030
Um,
1387
00:30:28.130 --> 00:30:29.930
sweep is 65%,
1388
00:30:30.349 --> 00:30:31.349
and Democrats,
1389
00:30:31.430 --> 00:30:31.750
uh,
1390
00:30:31.949 --> 00:30:32.329
House,
1391
00:30:32.869 --> 00:30:33.920
Republican Senate is 29%.
1392
00:30:34.189 --> 00:30:35.189
So add those both up,
1393
00:30:35.280 --> 00:30:36.239
those are the Democrats winning,
1394
00:30:36.310 --> 00:30:37.229
that's 85,
1395
00:30:37.270 --> 00:30:38.410
94%.
1396
00:30:38.630 --> 00:30:39.709
1 of those two things happens.
1397
00:30:40.520 --> 00:30:41.819
You're basically getting.
1398
00:30:43.150 --> 00:30:45.939
That if you could have the Democrats win the House,
1399
00:30:46.359 --> 00:30:47.920
and you have the Democrats win the Senate.
1400
00:30:48.609 --> 00:30:49.069
Um,
1401
00:30:49.250 --> 00:30:49.540
and,
1402
00:30:49.619 --> 00:30:49.819
uh,
1403
00:30:49.890 --> 00:30:50.699
you're gonna be fine there.
1404
00:30:50.780 --> 00:30:53.219
You're getting better prices than you're getting on some of these other markets.
1405
00:30:53.339 --> 00:30:53.630
So,
1406
00:30:53.939 --> 00:30:54.579
in a weird way,
1407
00:30:54.660 --> 00:30:56.219
I like this market a little bit more than
1408
00:30:56.219 --> 00:30:58.400
some of the other traditional markets if you can find
1409
00:30:58.819 --> 00:31:00.119
some shares there because
1410
00:31:00.329 --> 00:31:03.079
you're getting a little bit of a bonus out of this red wave thing
1411
00:31:03.260 --> 00:31:04.209
and you have a little bit of room.
1412
00:31:04.260 --> 00:31:04.400
I mean,
1413
00:31:04.699 --> 00:31:05.479
Republicans could win
1414
00:31:06.099 --> 00:31:06.260
the,
1415
00:31:06.300 --> 00:31:06.579
uh,
1416
00:31:06.699 --> 00:31:07.280
the House
1417
00:31:07.579 --> 00:31:09.770
and hold the Senate and get to 54 seats,
1418
00:31:09.819 --> 00:31:10.760
which would be a miracle,
1419
00:31:11.170 --> 00:31:12.640
and you're still gonna win this contract.
1420
00:31:13.290 --> 00:31:13.770
So,
1421
00:31:13.930 --> 00:31:14.729
it's a great hedge.
1422
00:31:14.810 --> 00:31:15.890
The only way you lose this,
1423
00:31:15.930 --> 00:31:18.329
if you happen to be a person who wants conservatives,
1424
00:31:18.339 --> 00:31:18.750
uh,
1425
00:31:18.770 --> 00:31:20.790
to win this particular election,
1426
00:31:21.290 --> 00:31:24.489
the only way you lose your contract is if you have an
1427
00:31:24.810 --> 00:31:27.270
incredible year that you're gonna be thrilled by
1428
00:31:27.569 --> 00:31:28.079
politically.
1429
00:31:28.609 --> 00:31:28.770
Uh,
1430
00:31:28.880 --> 00:31:29.550
and again,
1431
00:31:29.890 --> 00:31:31.170
it's not the biggest return in the world,
1432
00:31:31.250 --> 00:31:32.829
but you're talking about 7,
1433
00:31:33.209 --> 00:31:34.420
maybe 8%
1434
00:31:34.810 --> 00:31:36.390
over a period of
1435
00:31:36.729 --> 00:31:37.839
4 weeks,
1436
00:31:38.170 --> 00:31:39.449
which is great
1437
00:31:39.609 --> 00:31:41.930
as far as a return in any other circumstance.
1438
00:31:42.050 --> 00:31:42.390
So,
1439
00:31:42.729 --> 00:31:42.810
again,
1440
00:31:42.890 --> 00:31:43.650
I think there's tons of,
1441
00:31:43.750 --> 00:31:44.130
uh,
1442
00:31:44.329 --> 00:31:44.609
this,
1443
00:31:44.689 --> 00:31:47.189
this type of market is still available out there.
1444
00:31:47.574 --> 00:31:49.214
We've been drilling down to these candidates for a while.
1445
00:31:49.295 --> 00:31:51.655
We've hit a lot of the big kind of sexy races,
1446
00:31:51.895 --> 00:31:53.314
and we're gonna have to get deeper and deeper
1447
00:31:53.555 --> 00:31:54.295
into looking for these,
1448
00:31:54.405 --> 00:31:55.295
getting into margin markets,
1449
00:31:55.405 --> 00:31:56.854
getting into these combo type markets.
1450
00:31:56.935 --> 00:31:58.114
I like these markets a lot.
1451
00:31:58.255 --> 00:31:59.994
I like these markets a lot.
1452
00:32:00.135 --> 00:32:01.005
I want more of them.
1453
00:32:01.135 --> 00:32:03.875
I want more volume in them because I think there's real opportunities
1454
00:32:04.334 --> 00:32:04.505
there.
1455
00:32:04.594 --> 00:32:04.875
So,
1456
00:32:05.015 --> 00:32:06.474
my candidate of the day.
1457
00:32:06.939 --> 00:32:08.180
It's not a candidate at all.
1458
00:32:08.260 --> 00:32:09.640
It is Red Wave.
1459
00:32:09.979 --> 00:32:10.579
No,
1460
00:32:10.859 --> 00:32:12.050
it's a Calshi market,
1461
00:32:12.260 --> 00:32:13.239
but look for these other,
1462
00:32:13.329 --> 00:32:13.489
uh,
1463
00:32:13.500 --> 00:32:14.219
combo markets.
1464
00:32:14.300 --> 00:32:16.619
You can find really interesting versions of these
1465
00:32:16.619 --> 00:32:18.640
where they'll combine 3 or 4 things happening.
1466
00:32:19.380 --> 00:32:19.859
And
1467
00:32:20.099 --> 00:32:20.619
you can kind of say,
1468
00:32:20.709 --> 00:32:20.819
well,
1469
00:32:20.939 --> 00:32:21.380
wait a minute,
1470
00:32:21.500 --> 00:32:23.760
that even just that one is not gonna happen.
1471
00:32:23.939 --> 00:32:25.079
I can rule that one out.
1472
00:32:25.369 --> 00:32:25.650
Um,
1473
00:32:25.699 --> 00:32:28.089
I like those markets and I like going no on them as well,
1474
00:32:28.219 --> 00:32:28.619
typically.
1475
00:32:28.660 --> 00:32:30.160
I like finding the no side
1476
00:32:30.339 --> 00:32:33.160
to those markets cause it's just a little bit of a different way to play and
1477
00:32:33.540 --> 00:32:34.420
you never can think
1478
00:32:34.540 --> 00:32:35.300
it's like saying like,
1479
00:32:35.420 --> 00:32:35.709
you know,
1480
00:32:35.859 --> 00:32:37.250
people talk about parlays a lot,
1481
00:32:37.339 --> 00:32:37.640
right?
1482
00:32:38.160 --> 00:32:38.709
Um,
1483
00:32:38.930 --> 00:32:39.329
and that's,
1484
00:32:39.410 --> 00:32:39.569
you know,
1485
00:32:39.609 --> 00:32:40.130
in a way,
1486
00:32:40.170 --> 00:32:43.510
you can compare this to a parlay if you want to look in a colloquial sense.
1487
00:32:43.770 --> 00:32:43.890
Uh,
1488
00:32:44.000 --> 00:32:44.410
you can say,
1489
00:32:44.449 --> 00:32:44.689
OK,
1490
00:32:44.770 --> 00:32:44.930
well,
1491
00:32:45.050 --> 00:32:48.329
unless you need 4 things to happen or 5 things to happen in some of these markets,
1492
00:32:48.560 --> 00:32:48.689
uh,
1493
00:32:48.770 --> 00:32:49.310
to win.
1494
00:32:49.530 --> 00:32:50.760
I like going no on those
1495
00:32:51.089 --> 00:32:51.349
because
1496
00:32:51.520 --> 00:32:54.010
oftentimes one of those things just burns you somehow.
1497
00:32:54.050 --> 00:32:54.930
You don't see it coming,
1498
00:32:55.010 --> 00:32:55.250
you're like,
1499
00:32:55.290 --> 00:32:55.650
oh gosh,
1500
00:32:55.689 --> 00:32:57.890
I would have never thought that that state would have gone the wrong way.
1501
00:32:58.170 --> 00:32:58.290
Uh,
1502
00:32:58.359 --> 00:33:00.050
but you can kind of go no on those markets,
1503
00:33:00.250 --> 00:33:01.479
and then if you get one of those things,
1504
00:33:01.489 --> 00:33:01.640
uh,
1505
00:33:01.699 --> 00:33:03.349
that doesn't go the way of,
1506
00:33:03.400 --> 00:33:04.300
of the combo,
1507
00:33:04.569 --> 00:33:05.729
you wind up with a victory,
1508
00:33:05.770 --> 00:33:06.569
and that's what we want here.
1509
00:33:06.810 --> 00:33:07.650
That's what we're doing here.
1510
00:33:08.040 --> 00:33:09.199
We've been doing this for months.
1511
00:33:09.479 --> 00:33:09.599
Uh,
1512
00:33:09.680 --> 00:33:10.839
you've been here with us on this ride.
1513
00:33:10.920 --> 00:33:12.270
You probably did pretty well in the primaries.
1514
00:33:12.280 --> 00:33:13.400
If you've been around here for a while,
1515
00:33:13.479 --> 00:33:14.619
we hope to do just as well.
1516
00:33:14.880 --> 00:33:16.280
Coming up in just 1 month.
1517
00:33:16.599 --> 00:33:16.680
Yeah,
1518
00:33:16.790 --> 00:33:18.380
we're 4 weeks away from the election
1519
00:33:18.680 --> 00:33:20.439
and still hopefully churning out winners.
1520
00:33:20.680 --> 00:33:21.319
So check that one out.
1521
00:33:21.359 --> 00:33:23.170
It's a red wave no on Calshi
1522
00:33:23.680 --> 00:33:24.599
for that particular market.
1523
00:33:24.680 --> 00:33:25.839
We're gonna be back in just a moment.
1524
00:33:38.189 --> 00:33:38.810
Welcome back.
1525
00:33:38.989 --> 00:33:39.349
Um,
1526
00:33:39.430 --> 00:33:39.670
there's all,
1527
00:33:39.849 --> 00:33:39.869
um,
1528
00:33:39.989 --> 00:33:40.109
you know,
1529
00:33:40.150 --> 00:33:41.819
it's one of these things where we talk about,
1530
00:33:41.829 --> 00:33:42.430
um,
1531
00:33:42.989 --> 00:33:45.170
there's people coming for prediction markets all the time.
1532
00:33:45.510 --> 00:33:46.530
They are a target.
1533
00:33:46.660 --> 00:33:48.550
And if you like prediction markets,
1534
00:33:48.630 --> 00:33:49.310
if you think they,
1535
00:33:49.430 --> 00:33:50.489
they give value,
1536
00:33:50.750 --> 00:33:52.270
it's important to understand
1537
00:33:52.469 --> 00:33:53.979
that that's just not your vibe,
1538
00:33:54.189 --> 00:33:54.469
you know,
1539
00:33:54.790 --> 00:33:56.150
if you think it's just fun,
1540
00:33:56.229 --> 00:33:56.750
if you think,
1541
00:33:56.829 --> 00:33:57.189
oh gosh,
1542
00:33:57.229 --> 00:33:58.819
I'm throwing money around and I don't care,
1543
00:33:59.349 --> 00:34:00.089
play money and
1544
00:34:00.619 --> 00:34:01.540
You might use them that way.
1545
00:34:01.619 --> 00:34:02.439
Some people do.
1546
00:34:02.739 --> 00:34:04.770
We use it a totally different way on this program.
1547
00:34:04.939 --> 00:34:08.030
We talk about it as investing all the time because
1548
00:34:08.260 --> 00:34:09.219
that's what we're doing,
1549
00:34:09.379 --> 00:34:09.580
you know,
1550
00:34:09.659 --> 00:34:09.840
I mean,
1551
00:34:09.899 --> 00:34:10.050
it,
1552
00:34:10.139 --> 00:34:10.629
it's
1553
00:34:11.438 --> 00:34:11.678
You know,
1554
00:34:11.799 --> 00:34:11.918
there,
1555
00:34:12.118 --> 00:34:12.197
look,
1556
00:34:12.279 --> 00:34:13.197
there's not a lot of people who are like,
1557
00:34:13.279 --> 00:34:13.518
hey,
1558
00:34:13.717 --> 00:34:13.839
you,
1559
00:34:13.918 --> 00:34:14.819
you wanna be a gambler?
1560
00:34:14.878 --> 00:34:17.138
Let me give you something where you can get 8% gains.
1561
00:34:17.208 --> 00:34:17.349
Like,
1562
00:34:17.358 --> 00:34:18.668
that's not really a thing,
1563
00:34:18.779 --> 00:34:18.938
right?
1564
00:34:19.217 --> 00:34:19.368
Most,
1565
00:34:19.467 --> 00:34:20.658
that's not how people gamble.
1566
00:34:21.039 --> 00:34:23.358
People invest that way to try to get those types of gains,
1567
00:34:23.388 --> 00:34:24.059
and we look for
1568
00:34:24.388 --> 00:34:25.438
85,
1569
00:34:25.559 --> 00:34:26.789
2015,
1570
00:34:26.878 --> 00:34:28.138
30% gains,
1571
00:34:28.358 --> 00:34:28.638
um,
1572
00:34:28.799 --> 00:34:30.018
often on this show.
1573
00:34:30.467 --> 00:34:30.748
And,
1574
00:34:30.918 --> 00:34:31.079
you know,
1575
00:34:31.158 --> 00:34:31.748
a lot of people are like,
1576
00:34:31.789 --> 00:34:32.079
oh gosh,
1577
00:34:32.178 --> 00:34:32.989
give me a real long shot.
1578
00:34:33.029 --> 00:34:33.248
It's like,
1579
00:34:33.309 --> 00:34:33.398
well,
1580
00:34:33.559 --> 00:34:33.678
you know,
1581
00:34:33.789 --> 00:34:34.938
long shots usually lose.
1582
00:34:35.319 --> 00:34:36.958
I'd rather give you something where I think we're gonna win.
1583
00:34:37.418 --> 00:34:38.219
If I can find a long shot,
1584
00:34:38.260 --> 00:34:39.458
I will happily give you those,
1585
00:34:39.500 --> 00:34:40.800
and we've hit some of those as well.
1586
00:34:41.090 --> 00:34:41.239
Um,
1587
00:34:41.300 --> 00:34:42.938
one of the reasons I bring this up is because people
1588
00:34:42.938 --> 00:34:45.340
are talking about prediction markets as if they have no value,
1589
00:34:45.500 --> 00:34:45.629
right?
1590
00:34:45.739 --> 00:34:45.860
They,
1591
00:34:46.179 --> 00:34:46.580
this is like,
1592
00:34:46.659 --> 00:34:47.020
oh gosh,
1593
00:34:47.060 --> 00:34:49.260
a bad thing for society and people are gambling
1594
00:34:49.260 --> 00:34:50.580
on these young people who are on markets.
1595
00:34:50.620 --> 00:34:50.739
Like,
1596
00:34:50.780 --> 00:34:50.899
I,
1597
00:34:50.978 --> 00:34:51.228
I will,
1598
00:34:51.320 --> 00:34:51.409
I,
1599
00:34:51.489 --> 00:34:52.560
I've picked apart
1600
00:34:53.020 --> 00:34:55.219
a bunch of different pieces of this argument over
1601
00:34:55.219 --> 00:34:56.750
the years and I'll continue to do it,
1602
00:34:57.100 --> 00:34:57.520
um,
1603
00:34:57.860 --> 00:34:59.560
because I think it's important that you know the facts.
1604
00:35:00.030 --> 00:35:03.260
But when it comes to whether they're providing something for the public,
1605
00:35:03.399 --> 00:35:04.790
really that is kind of guarded,
1606
00:35:04.909 --> 00:35:04.989
uh,
1607
00:35:05.070 --> 00:35:05.179
uh,
1608
00:35:05.300 --> 00:35:05.469
you know,
1609
00:35:05.540 --> 00:35:07.179
guided by whether they're accurate or not,
1610
00:35:07.270 --> 00:35:07.429
right?
1611
00:35:07.500 --> 00:35:09.070
If they're just giving you random numbers,
1612
00:35:09.179 --> 00:35:09.350
they,
1613
00:35:09.429 --> 00:35:09.550
they,
1614
00:35:09.669 --> 00:35:12.570
they don't serve all that much value even if they might be fun,
1615
00:35:13.270 --> 00:35:13.669
um,
1616
00:35:13.870 --> 00:35:14.459
and they might be able to,
1617
00:35:14.510 --> 00:35:14.629
you know,
1618
00:35:14.709 --> 00:35:14.860
you,
1619
00:35:14.870 --> 00:35:16.620
a way for you to test your own opinions,
1620
00:35:16.830 --> 00:35:18.169
you're gonna get that much value out of them,
1621
00:35:18.629 --> 00:35:18.750
uh,
1622
00:35:19.070 --> 00:35:19.610
unless they're
1623
00:35:19.750 --> 00:35:20.560
telling you the right thing.
1624
00:35:20.669 --> 00:35:21.860
So I wanna highlight a couple of things.
1625
00:35:21.909 --> 00:35:22.310
This is from,
1626
00:35:22.350 --> 00:35:22.540
uh,
1627
00:35:22.550 --> 00:35:23.270
Benjamin Freeman.
1628
00:35:23.649 --> 00:35:24.120
Um,
1629
00:35:24.300 --> 00:35:25.540
he says depending on whether prediction
1630
00:35:25.540 --> 00:35:27.260
markets are favoring Republicans or Democrats,
1631
00:35:27.459 --> 00:35:30.360
everyone seems to have an opinion they are biased one way or the other.
1632
00:35:30.580 --> 00:35:31.179
In reality,
1633
00:35:31.290 --> 00:35:34.090
a Dartmouth study dating all the way back to 1880
1634
00:35:34.489 --> 00:35:38.800
finds nosy uh systematic evidence of political or demographic bias.
1635
00:35:39.100 --> 00:35:40.290
For most prediction market traders,
1636
00:35:40.340 --> 00:35:41.760
this probably doesn't come as a surprise,
1637
00:35:41.850 --> 00:35:43.850
but I would encourage everyone to read the study and give it some,
1638
00:35:43.939 --> 00:35:44.020
some,
1639
00:35:44.120 --> 00:35:44.580
some thoughts.
1640
00:35:44.639 --> 00:35:44.959
Now,
1641
00:35:45.260 --> 00:35:45.570
um,
1642
00:35:45.739 --> 00:35:46.050
this was,
1643
00:35:46.060 --> 00:35:46.399
uh,
1644
00:35:46.489 --> 00:35:47.320
tweeted by,
1645
00:35:47.340 --> 00:35:48.209
uh,
1646
00:35:48.219 --> 00:35:48.860
Tarek Mansour,
1647
00:35:48.929 --> 00:35:49.219
who's the,
1648
00:35:49.260 --> 00:35:49.500
uh,
1649
00:35:49.510 --> 00:35:50.419
CEO of Calsci.
1650
00:35:50.580 --> 00:35:50.929
Obviously,
1651
00:35:50.979 --> 00:35:51.899
he likes prediction markets.
1652
00:35:52.020 --> 00:35:52.459
He's a fan.
1653
00:35:53.020 --> 00:35:53.340
Uh,
1654
00:35:53.419 --> 00:35:54.020
he says this,
1655
00:35:54.090 --> 00:35:54.330
uh,
1656
00:35:54.540 --> 00:35:55.919
our prediction markets biased
1657
00:35:56.139 --> 00:35:56.939
by white men,
1658
00:35:57.340 --> 00:35:58.560
Republicans or young people?
1659
00:35:58.850 --> 00:36:02.699
Dartmouth professor analyzed 145 years of election prediction market data.
1660
00:36:02.780 --> 00:36:02.850
Now,
1661
00:36:02.899 --> 00:36:03.469
I gotta be honest with you,
1662
00:36:03.520 --> 00:36:04.610
I know a lot about elections,
1663
00:36:04.689 --> 00:36:04.909
uh,
1664
00:36:04.949 --> 00:36:06.090
and prediction market data.
1665
00:36:06.379 --> 00:36:08.620
Didn't know there were prediction markets in 1880.
1666
00:36:08.780 --> 00:36:08.889
I,
1667
00:36:08.939 --> 00:36:11.100
I need to go through this entire study to learn about this,
1668
00:36:11.179 --> 00:36:12.050
the history of this,
1669
00:36:12.379 --> 00:36:13.770
cause my understanding of it is it went back,
1670
00:36:13.830 --> 00:36:13.939
you know,
1671
00:36:13.979 --> 00:36:14.659
a few decades.
1672
00:36:14.770 --> 00:36:15.899
There were examples of this.
1673
00:36:15.939 --> 00:36:16.939
I didn't know it went back that far,
1674
00:36:17.020 --> 00:36:17.350
but
1675
00:36:17.860 --> 00:36:19.199
They found no systemic evidence
1676
00:36:19.500 --> 00:36:21.409
of political bias across different eras,
1677
00:36:21.659 --> 00:36:22.120
countries,
1678
00:36:22.139 --> 00:36:22.800
and offices.
1679
00:36:22.899 --> 00:36:25.899
I will say some prediction markets were biased toward the Whig Party.
1680
00:36:27.080 --> 00:36:27.409
That's just,
1681
00:36:27.530 --> 00:36:28.689
I don't have any data to support that,
1682
00:36:28.750 --> 00:36:29.550
but that's what I believe.
1683
00:36:29.729 --> 00:36:29.850
Uh,
1684
00:36:29.929 --> 00:36:32.850
no systemic evidence of pricing bias based on candidates' race,
1685
00:36:32.929 --> 00:36:33.290
gender,
1686
00:36:33.370 --> 00:36:34.149
or age.
1687
00:36:34.409 --> 00:36:34.570
Uh,
1688
00:36:34.729 --> 00:36:36.760
traders weren't always representative of the voting population,
1689
00:36:37.010 --> 00:36:39.409
yet that didn't translate into systematic bias.
1690
00:36:39.729 --> 00:36:41.270
What's interesting about that is it's kind of something you,
1691
00:36:41.340 --> 00:36:41.729
you know,
1692
00:36:41.850 --> 00:36:42.149
right?
1693
00:36:43.379 --> 00:36:44.610
If you ask somebody,
1694
00:36:44.989 --> 00:36:45.379
uh,
1695
00:36:45.389 --> 00:36:47.100
who might be of a particular racial group or
1696
00:36:47.100 --> 00:36:50.010
a particular gender or a particular political group,
1697
00:36:50.550 --> 00:36:53.669
you may or may not be able to trust what they think about an election.
1698
00:36:53.750 --> 00:36:55.979
But when you're talking to people who are putting their money where their mouth is,
1699
00:36:55.989 --> 00:36:56.159
I mean,
1700
00:36:56.189 --> 00:36:56.669
how many people,
1701
00:36:56.790 --> 00:36:58.110
how many times have I recommended to you
1702
00:36:58.310 --> 00:36:59.949
that to put money on a democratic position?
1703
00:36:59.989 --> 00:37:00.750
I just did.
1704
00:37:01.030 --> 00:37:01.149
I mean,
1705
00:37:01.229 --> 00:37:01.389
you know,
1706
00:37:01.500 --> 00:37:01.659
I,
1707
00:37:01.909 --> 00:37:02.070
my,
1708
00:37:02.270 --> 00:37:02.949
when I say recommend,
1709
00:37:03.169 --> 00:37:03.379
recommend,
1710
00:37:03.389 --> 00:37:05.129
it's just my opinion and what I'm doing.
1711
00:37:05.459 --> 00:37:06.580
But when you talk about like,
1712
00:37:06.590 --> 00:37:07.290
uh,
1713
00:37:07.310 --> 00:37:08.129
the red wave,
1714
00:37:08.379 --> 00:37:08.580
like,
1715
00:37:08.590 --> 00:37:10.860
I would rather have conservatives win in these elections,
1716
00:37:10.949 --> 00:37:11.149
OK?
1717
00:37:11.260 --> 00:37:13.610
That's my own political opinion personally.
1718
00:37:14.709 --> 00:37:15.260
That being said,
1719
00:37:15.379 --> 00:37:15.939
I'm telling you,
1720
00:37:15.979 --> 00:37:17.610
I think the red wave is a,
1721
00:37:17.620 --> 00:37:17.850
uh,
1722
00:37:17.860 --> 00:37:20.209
is a no position because I don't think it's gonna happen.
1723
00:37:20.659 --> 00:37:20.969
And like,
1724
00:37:21.020 --> 00:37:21.340
frankly,
1725
00:37:21.439 --> 00:37:24.360
it's been difficult to hold up over the years when it comes to,
1726
00:37:24.379 --> 00:37:24.929
uh,
1727
00:37:24.939 --> 00:37:26.419
normal sort of partisan,
1728
00:37:26.659 --> 00:37:27.120
if you will,
1729
00:37:27.260 --> 00:37:28.179
media coverage.
1730
00:37:28.300 --> 00:37:28.419
I mean,
1731
00:37:28.459 --> 00:37:29.760
I've been on a lot of media coverage
1732
00:37:29.919 --> 00:37:32.560
talking with people who are very much rooting for their own side.
1733
00:37:32.820 --> 00:37:33.129
And like,
1734
00:37:33.179 --> 00:37:33.580
I get that,
1735
00:37:33.659 --> 00:37:34.199
that's important,
1736
00:37:34.260 --> 00:37:35.169
you have to do that.
1737
00:37:35.659 --> 00:37:35.739
Uh,
1738
00:37:35.770 --> 00:37:38.219
you have to do things that are support your own side if you think that's important.
1739
00:37:39.050 --> 00:37:39.800
But like,
1740
00:37:40.090 --> 00:37:41.129
taking the no,
1741
00:37:41.449 --> 00:37:41.610
no,
1742
00:37:41.669 --> 00:37:44.610
I don't think Mitt Romney's gonna win this election was not an easy thing.
1743
00:37:44.669 --> 00:37:44.810
I mean,
1744
00:37:44.850 --> 00:37:46.100
I had to do that a lot and say,
1745
00:37:46.209 --> 00:37:46.409
gosh,
1746
00:37:46.479 --> 00:37:48.270
I just don't think the data is there to support it.
1747
00:37:48.649 --> 00:37:49.010
Um,
1748
00:37:49.090 --> 00:37:50.959
and uh people hated that at the time,
1749
00:37:51.050 --> 00:37:51.439
uh,
1750
00:37:51.850 --> 00:37:52.870
when I was on with Glenn,
1751
00:37:53.120 --> 00:37:53.350
uh,
1752
00:37:53.360 --> 00:37:54.449
and some Blaze program,
1753
00:37:54.489 --> 00:37:54.679
and they,
1754
00:37:54.770 --> 00:37:56.370
they we're not fans of that particular argument,
1755
00:37:56.439 --> 00:37:57.189
but it wound up being,
1756
00:37:57.250 --> 00:37:57.370
you know,
1757
00:37:57.530 --> 00:37:57.610
true,
1758
00:37:57.649 --> 00:37:59.030
and that's what we try to do here.
1759
00:37:59.520 --> 00:37:59.879
Um,
1760
00:37:59.959 --> 00:38:00.550
he goes on to say,
1761
00:38:00.600 --> 00:38:00.760
uh,
1762
00:38:00.860 --> 00:38:02.679
open competition incentivizes research,
1763
00:38:02.840 --> 00:38:04.000
challenges consensus,
1764
00:38:04.040 --> 00:38:05.550
and gives the best ideas to surface.
1765
00:38:05.800 --> 00:38:07.340
People are rewarded for being right
1766
00:38:07.649 --> 00:38:09.550
regardless of their background or preferences.
1767
00:38:09.800 --> 00:38:12.459
The paper does find some pricing biases,
1768
00:38:12.760 --> 00:38:13.219
um,
1769
00:38:13.560 --> 00:38:14.050
uh,
1770
00:38:14.080 --> 00:38:17.280
including slight overpricing of long shots and underpricing of favorites,
1771
00:38:17.360 --> 00:38:19.120
which is interesting cause I think that's sort
1772
00:38:19.120 --> 00:38:20.919
of reversed over the past month or two.
1773
00:38:21.159 --> 00:38:23.139
I think some of the favorites are overpriced lately,
1774
00:38:23.320 --> 00:38:25.459
and we did find a lot of underdogs
1775
00:38:25.689 --> 00:38:26.719
that we were able to hit.
1776
00:38:27.070 --> 00:38:27.439
Um,
1777
00:38:27.600 --> 00:38:27.760
uh,
1778
00:38:27.840 --> 00:38:32.040
or at least ride them from a 5% chance up to a 20% chance during the primaries,
1779
00:38:32.120 --> 00:38:32.399
but
1780
00:38:32.560 --> 00:38:35.120
I do think that because these markets are getting sharper,
1781
00:38:35.209 --> 00:38:36.989
I think almost they've overcompensated for that,
1782
00:38:37.040 --> 00:38:37.800
but that's just my opinion.
1783
00:38:38.000 --> 00:38:38.560
This is the market,
1784
00:38:38.719 --> 00:38:39.280
this is the study,
1785
00:38:39.360 --> 00:38:39.719
by the way,
1786
00:38:39.840 --> 00:38:41.540
our prediction market's politically biased.
1787
00:38:41.760 --> 00:38:42.149
Um,
1788
00:38:42.239 --> 00:38:42.760
it talks about,
1789
00:38:42.840 --> 00:38:43.040
uh,
1790
00:38:43.159 --> 00:38:44.100
finds no evidence
1791
00:38:44.270 --> 00:38:47.040
of an overpricing either left or right-leaning candidates
1792
00:38:47.360 --> 00:38:50.560
across a variety of subsample samples and goes through the entire data.
1793
00:38:50.629 --> 00:38:51.500
You can go check that out.
1794
00:38:52.520 --> 00:38:55.780
This is not the only piece of evidence that shows though that this is accurate.
1795
00:38:56.000 --> 00:38:56.360
And you might say,
1796
00:38:56.459 --> 00:38:56.530
well,
1797
00:38:56.600 --> 00:38:56.959
wait a minute,
1798
00:38:57.000 --> 00:38:57.800
I saw a guy who was,
1799
00:38:57.879 --> 00:38:58.219
they were,
1800
00:38:58.860 --> 00:39:02.300
Francesca Hong was a 92% favorite and then she lost.
1801
00:39:02.679 --> 00:39:03.909
Prediction markets aren't accurate.
1802
00:39:04.000 --> 00:39:05.139
I see that all the time.
1803
00:39:05.479 --> 00:39:05.639
Oh,
1804
00:39:05.760 --> 00:39:08.330
look at the numbers are going up and down over a short period of time.
1805
00:39:08.399 --> 00:39:09.560
That can't mean they don't know anything,
1806
00:39:09.639 --> 00:39:10.479
prediction markets.
1807
00:39:10.840 --> 00:39:13.189
There is a lot of academic research on this.
1808
00:39:13.560 --> 00:39:14.239
Let me give you a,
1809
00:39:14.280 --> 00:39:16.639
a few different examples of academic research,
1810
00:39:17.040 --> 00:39:17.739
industry research
1811
00:39:18.040 --> 00:39:20.600
that shows this in case you're interested in it.
1812
00:39:21.000 --> 00:39:21.379
Um,
1813
00:39:21.610 --> 00:39:22.129
Calci,
1814
00:39:22.250 --> 00:39:22.360
uh,
1815
00:39:22.409 --> 00:39:22.729
did a,
1816
00:39:22.959 --> 00:39:23.080
uh,
1817
00:39:23.129 --> 00:39:23.239
an,
1818
00:39:23.419 --> 00:39:24.649
a research study on its,
1819
00:39:24.729 --> 00:39:25.120
on its own,
1820
00:39:25.169 --> 00:39:25.330
and,
1821
00:39:25.389 --> 00:39:26.000
and you might be saying,
1822
00:39:26.040 --> 00:39:26.330
oh gosh,
1823
00:39:26.419 --> 00:39:26.489
well,
1824
00:39:26.560 --> 00:39:27.209
that's just Calci.
1825
00:39:27.250 --> 00:39:27.449
Let me,
1826
00:39:27.560 --> 00:39:27.689
let me,
1827
00:39:27.770 --> 00:39:28.929
let me go through this data though first.
1828
00:39:29.290 --> 00:39:31.229
Calibration and prediction markets theory and evidence.
1829
00:39:31.489 --> 00:39:33.590
This is a working paper from August 2026.
1830
00:39:34.129 --> 00:39:34.989
They measured,
1831
00:39:35.090 --> 00:39:35.439
um,
1832
00:39:35.729 --> 00:39:38.449
2.2 million different prediction markets,
1833
00:39:38.560 --> 00:39:40.469
2.2 million calci markets
1834
00:39:40.689 --> 00:39:40.989
over,
1835
00:39:41.080 --> 00:39:41.250
uh,
1836
00:39:41.290 --> 00:39:42.469
a five-year period.
1837
00:39:42.810 --> 00:39:44.770
And this is what they found.
1838
00:39:45.010 --> 00:39:46.189
A three-month probability.
1839
00:39:46.689 --> 00:39:46.889
Now,
1840
00:39:47.010 --> 00:39:48.489
just explain what this graph is showing you,
1841
00:39:48.570 --> 00:39:48.719
to,
1842
00:39:48.770 --> 00:39:49.850
to oversimplify it,
1843
00:39:50.070 --> 00:39:51.409
and I'll explain it for podcasters.
1844
00:39:51.489 --> 00:39:52.969
There's a line going from the lower
1845
00:39:52.969 --> 00:39:54.679
left-hand corner to the upper right-hand corner,
1846
00:39:54.850 --> 00:39:55.489
straight line.
1847
00:39:56.510 --> 00:39:57.709
Perfect calibration
1848
00:39:57.929 --> 00:39:58.429
would mean
1849
00:39:58.810 --> 00:40:00.510
that that red line
1850
00:40:00.770 --> 00:40:02.689
would be exactly on the dotted line.
1851
00:40:03.050 --> 00:40:06.149
What you see here is a red line that is very close
1852
00:40:06.810 --> 00:40:07.409
to the dotted line,
1853
00:40:07.489 --> 00:40:07.959
not exact,
1854
00:40:08.030 --> 00:40:09.030
but very close.
1855
00:40:09.479 --> 00:40:09.790
Uh,
1856
00:40:09.929 --> 00:40:12.030
so what calibration means is like,
1857
00:40:12.050 --> 00:40:12.280
if,
1858
00:40:12.409 --> 00:40:14.610
if prediction markets say there's a 20% chance of,
1859
00:40:14.649 --> 00:40:15.629
of something happening.
1860
00:40:16.129 --> 00:40:17.080
It should happen
1861
00:40:17.219 --> 00:40:18.479
20% of the time.
1862
00:40:18.820 --> 00:40:21.100
If it says there's an 80% chance of happening,
1863
00:40:21.260 --> 00:40:22.699
it should happen 80% of the time.
1864
00:40:23.020 --> 00:40:24.649
So when you say something like Francesca Hong,
1865
00:40:24.739 --> 00:40:24.780
well,
1866
00:40:24.830 --> 00:40:26.770
it said there was a 95% chance and she lost,
1867
00:40:27.050 --> 00:40:28.320
that should happen
1868
00:40:28.899 --> 00:40:29.860
5% of the time.
1869
00:40:29.979 --> 00:40:31.080
5% of the time,
1870
00:40:31.340 --> 00:40:33.560
a 95% favorite should lose.
1871
00:40:34.419 --> 00:40:37.679
And what we've seen over millions of markets,
1872
00:40:37.699 --> 00:40:41.820
is that a 95% favorite actually loses about 5% of the time.
1873
00:40:42.020 --> 00:40:42.139
Now,
1874
00:40:42.179 --> 00:40:44.290
that's 3 months in advance.
1875
00:40:44.699 --> 00:40:45.899
They also have it at 1 month,
1876
00:40:46.060 --> 00:40:46.659
you'll see,
1877
00:40:46.909 --> 00:40:47.020
uh,
1878
00:40:47.100 --> 00:40:48.020
with the 1 month chart,
1879
00:40:48.129 --> 00:40:49.760
the line is even a little bit closer
1880
00:40:49.939 --> 00:40:51.399
to perfect calibration.
1881
00:40:51.629 --> 00:40:52.929
When you go to 1 week,
1882
00:40:53.139 --> 00:40:56.639
the line is even a little bit closer to perfect calibration,
1883
00:40:56.899 --> 00:40:58.379
and you go to 1 day,
1884
00:40:58.459 --> 00:41:01.199
this is 492,000 markets,
1885
00:41:01.659 --> 00:41:01.810
the,
1886
00:41:01.899 --> 00:41:02.580
the,
1887
00:41:02.780 --> 00:41:02.860
the,
1888
00:41:02.909 --> 00:41:03.060
I mean,
1889
00:41:03.100 --> 00:41:03.979
it's almost perfect.
1890
00:41:04.810 --> 00:41:07.189
Almost perfect calibration over that
1891
00:41:07.429 --> 00:41:08.199
size sample.
1892
00:41:08.250 --> 00:41:08.600
You might say,
1893
00:41:08.649 --> 00:41:08.810
OK,
1894
00:41:08.889 --> 00:41:09.449
that's Calci,
1895
00:41:09.530 --> 00:41:09.840
they're talking,
1896
00:41:10.250 --> 00:41:10.310
you know,
1897
00:41:10.530 --> 00:41:11.030
it's Calci,
1898
00:41:11.120 --> 00:41:11.429
you know,
1899
00:41:11.860 --> 00:41:13.189
checking their own homework here?
1900
00:41:13.570 --> 00:41:13.870
No.
1901
00:41:14.129 --> 00:41:15.330
There's another independent study,
1902
00:41:15.409 --> 00:41:16.350
74,000,
1903
00:41:16.370 --> 00:41:16.449
uh,
1904
00:41:16.530 --> 00:41:17.360
Calci Markets,
1905
00:41:17.409 --> 00:41:17.679
uh,
1906
00:41:17.689 --> 00:41:18.909
found a similar pattern.
1907
00:41:19.409 --> 00:41:20.300
Washington Post,
1908
00:41:20.530 --> 00:41:20.610
yeah,
1909
00:41:20.689 --> 00:41:22.129
the Washington Post even found this.
1910
00:41:22.209 --> 00:41:23.510
Why prediction markets elections
1911
00:41:23.770 --> 00:41:23.850
are,
1912
00:41:23.879 --> 00:41:24.310
uh,
1913
00:41:24.340 --> 00:41:26.389
election picks are useful even when they seem
1914
00:41:26.649 --> 00:41:27.129
wrong.
1915
00:41:27.370 --> 00:41:28.750
They predict they produced,
1916
00:41:28.909 --> 00:41:29.080
uh,
1917
00:41:29.090 --> 00:41:29.929
their own study.
1918
00:41:30.340 --> 00:41:30.550
Uh,
1919
00:41:30.669 --> 00:41:31.860
with a similar type graph,
1920
00:41:32.030 --> 00:41:32.110
again,
1921
00:41:32.189 --> 00:41:33.590
you see an upper right-hand line of like,
1922
00:41:33.669 --> 00:41:34.389
here's the the,
1923
00:41:34.469 --> 00:41:34.790
the,
1924
00:41:34.850 --> 00:41:35.219
uh,
1925
00:41:35.350 --> 00:41:35.550
the,
1926
00:41:35.669 --> 00:41:36.699
the numbers should be,
1927
00:41:36.949 --> 00:41:38.070
and you see the dots,
1928
00:41:38.229 --> 00:41:40.010
they fit on that line again,
1929
00:41:40.389 --> 00:41:41.649
almost perfectly
1930
00:41:41.840 --> 00:41:43.290
in the green boxes
1931
00:41:43.469 --> 00:41:45.409
in every single shaded area,
1932
00:41:45.540 --> 00:41:47.149
all the way from 0 all the way to 100.
1933
00:41:47.229 --> 00:41:48.209
The bottom line here
1934
00:41:48.550 --> 00:41:49.120
is that
1935
00:41:49.350 --> 00:41:51.060
when you hear arguments about people saying,
1936
00:41:51.110 --> 00:41:51.189
well,
1937
00:41:51.229 --> 00:41:52.229
there's no value to this.
1938
00:41:52.919 --> 00:41:53.080
You know,
1939
00:41:53.159 --> 00:41:54.340
it's just gambling.
1940
00:41:55.689 --> 00:41:58.820
You getting better information is valuable.
1941
00:41:59.129 --> 00:42:00.399
It is incredibly valuable,
1942
00:42:00.969 --> 00:42:03.850
especially in this crappy media era we're in,
1943
00:42:04.209 --> 00:42:06.360
when people are lying to you all the time.
1944
00:42:06.409 --> 00:42:08.209
The fact that you now have a tool
1945
00:42:08.409 --> 00:42:09.510
that you can see,
1946
00:42:10.699 --> 00:42:10.959
you know,
1947
00:42:11.600 --> 00:42:12.909
almost exactly,
1948
00:42:13.330 --> 00:42:13.840
uh,
1949
00:42:13.850 --> 00:42:16.629
to that one line that we're talking about here.
1950
00:42:17.199 --> 00:42:17.209
They,
1951
00:42:17.290 --> 00:42:21.229
these are perfectly calibrated results over millions of markets over years.
1952
00:42:21.489 --> 00:42:23.669
In some markets going back to 1880.
1953
00:42:25.110 --> 00:42:29.629
That is a massive improvement over the media diet and the information diet you,
1954
00:42:29.639 --> 00:42:33.270
you had before 2021 when Calci came online or predicted before that or,
1955
00:42:33.479 --> 00:42:35.189
or polymarket or whoever you wanna say.
1956
00:42:35.449 --> 00:42:36.479
This is a massive,
1957
00:42:36.600 --> 00:42:40.659
massive improvement for you and your life when it comes to your news and media diet.
1958
00:42:40.959 --> 00:42:41.270
And,
1959
00:42:41.280 --> 00:42:41.760
uh,
1960
00:42:41.840 --> 00:42:42.040
you know,
1961
00:42:42.159 --> 00:42:43.860
the fact that three-quarters of people
1962
00:42:44.000 --> 00:42:44.520
don't trade.
1963
00:42:44.600 --> 00:42:46.149
They come to these sites to check the numbers,
1964
00:42:46.199 --> 00:42:46.780
they don't trade.
1965
00:42:47.280 --> 00:42:49.179
That is a real benefit to society
1966
00:42:49.280 --> 00:42:49.429
that,
1967
00:42:49.439 --> 00:42:49.800
of course,
1968
00:42:50.580 --> 00:42:51.399
the media will not admit.
1969
00:43:00.469 --> 00:43:00.550
All right,
1970
00:43:00.629 --> 00:43:01.489
that's all the time we have,
1971
00:43:01.500 --> 00:43:01.770
uh,
1972
00:43:01.790 --> 00:43:01.870
today.
1973
00:43:01.929 --> 00:43:04.429
I wanna remind you we have lots of great tools at predictableShow.com.
1974
00:43:04.560 --> 00:43:04.989
Go there,
1975
00:43:05.110 --> 00:43:05.479
you get,
1976
00:43:05.510 --> 00:43:05.780
uh,
1977
00:43:05.790 --> 00:43:07.399
the Senate board for free.
1978
00:43:07.550 --> 00:43:08.429
You can check that out whenever you want.
1979
00:43:08.510 --> 00:43:10.100
The predictable midterm consensus.
1980
00:43:10.189 --> 00:43:11.469
Get those top line numbers for free.
1981
00:43:11.540 --> 00:43:14.169
If you want every single race broken down by prediction market data
1982
00:43:14.429 --> 00:43:15.379
and the expert data,
1983
00:43:15.590 --> 00:43:16.889
you can get that as part of your premium.
1984
00:43:17.415 --> 00:43:17.774
Description.
1985
00:43:18.064 --> 00:43:20.344
We also have the predictable constitution,
1986
00:43:20.465 --> 00:43:21.824
predictable 101.com.
1987
00:43:21.945 --> 00:43:24.145
These are things to get you started to make sure that you don't,
1988
00:43:24.344 --> 00:43:24.475
you know,
1989
00:43:24.574 --> 00:43:26.445
blow all your money on prediction markets.
1990
00:43:26.625 --> 00:43:26.854
Um,
1991
00:43:27.014 --> 00:43:27.564
be smart with it,
1992
00:43:27.705 --> 00:43:28.284
start small,
1993
00:43:28.784 --> 00:43:29.465
get to understand them.
1994
00:43:29.534 --> 00:43:30.254
If you're new to this,
1995
00:43:30.665 --> 00:43:31.534
don't feel like you're like,
1996
00:43:31.584 --> 00:43:32.024
oh gosh,
1997
00:43:32.064 --> 00:43:33.024
I'm way left behind.
1998
00:43:33.064 --> 00:43:34.465
I don't understand what he's talking about.
1999
00:43:35.185 --> 00:43:35.665
Get started,
2000
00:43:35.784 --> 00:43:35.985
watch,
2001
00:43:36.104 --> 00:43:37.604
go to predictable101.com.
2002
00:43:38.024 --> 00:43:38.854
Get involved in it.
2003
00:43:39.024 --> 00:43:40.304
Kinda make a couple of small trades,
2004
00:43:40.344 --> 00:43:40.945
a couple of bucks,
2005
00:43:41.024 --> 00:43:41.465
that's it.
2006
00:43:41.860 --> 00:43:42.030
Uh,
2007
00:43:42.110 --> 00:43:44.419
don't jump in with hundreds of dollars and thousands of
2008
00:43:44.419 --> 00:43:47.050
dollars because you probably will make some mistakes early on.
2009
00:43:47.310 --> 00:43:48.409
But you've got a month here
2010
00:43:48.840 --> 00:43:49.750
before this election happens.
2011
00:43:49.820 --> 00:43:51.209
There's a ton of opportunities
2012
00:43:51.469 --> 00:43:53.489
we've been telling you about that we're gonna take advantage of,
2013
00:43:53.709 --> 00:43:56.290
and I think you can take advantage of them as well.
2014
00:43:56.629 --> 00:43:58.610
We would love to have you at predictableShow.com.
2015
00:43:58.790 --> 00:43:59.770
We have every pick.
2016
00:44:00.030 --> 00:44:02.290
Stu's picks is up on the premium site as well.
2017
00:44:02.590 --> 00:44:04.389
It's every prediction market position that I take.
2018
00:44:04.540 --> 00:44:05.110
So if you're just thinking like,
2019
00:44:05.149 --> 00:44:05.389
I don't.
2020
00:44:05.610 --> 00:44:06.679
really know what I wanna do here.
2021
00:44:07.219 --> 00:44:07.879
Look at my list,
2022
00:44:08.060 --> 00:44:09.610
see which ones you think are smart plays,
2023
00:44:09.750 --> 00:44:10.810
see which ones you don't,
2024
00:44:11.090 --> 00:44:13.800
and you can even piggyback on some of those if you think they're valuable.
2025
00:44:14.060 --> 00:44:14.139
Uh,
2026
00:44:14.179 --> 00:44:15.500
that's all up at predictableShow.com.
2027
00:44:15.570 --> 00:44:17.500
We try to give you as many resources as you can.
2028
00:44:17.699 --> 00:44:18.500
Tons of them are free.
2029
00:44:18.580 --> 00:44:20.679
You can be a free subscriber and get all the stuff
2030
00:44:20.939 --> 00:44:22.270
at predictableShow.com
2031
00:44:22.379 --> 00:44:23.169
or if you want to upgrade,
2032
00:44:23.300 --> 00:44:23.889
if you're a trader,
2033
00:44:23.969 --> 00:44:24.840
if you wanna get more involved,
2034
00:44:25.129 --> 00:44:26.040
we'd love to have you there
2035
00:44:26.219 --> 00:44:27.399
on the premium side as well.
2036
00:44:27.530 --> 00:44:28.459
It's all the time we have for tonight.
2037
00:44:28.620 --> 00:44:29.139
We'll see you later.