00:00:00
Speaker 1: The most valuable commandity I know of his information.
00:00:04
Speaker 2: Wouldn't you agree A five dollars?
00:00:08
Speaker 1: Just a row a level?
00:00:10
Speaker 2: How many tackle shit?
00:00:11
Speaker 3: One? You're saying that humans need fantasy to make life bearable.
00:00:19
Speaker 2: Humans need fantasy to be human? My goodness, that was good.
00:00:27
Speaker 1: Prose bests relentless refusing to give up. All right, hit that horn, babe.
00:00:33
Speaker 3: Let's let's jump to the NFC and we'll start with Dallas.
00:00:41
Speaker 2: See Lamb or Amari for you?
00:00:43
Speaker 1: This is so tough because I mean, I don't want to get off the CD train. It's been fun. I drafted a shit ton of him when he was wide receiver seventeen, But now that he's wide receiver twelve and Mark Cooper is like wide receiver fifteen, I would prefer Amari because it does look like I'm Marii's healthy, But you know, Lamb's going to have such a big year that you can't go wrong with either. Again, this is one of those things where we're nitpicking. Michael Gallup at wide receiver forty six is probably the best value out of all of them. So that's why I've typically gotten him in most of my drafts, whereas these guys, it depends where your draft slot is, depends who you get in round one or two. But you know, I'm okay having either one of these guys on my teams. Yeah.
00:01:27
Speaker 3: Actually, funny exactly have Gout ranked exactly at wide receiver forty six. But I do agree that he is he's a value given that Dak should be back and this often should be able to support the you know, three wide receivers. So but yeah, for Lamb versus two, per I have Lamb one spot ahead. But yeah, they're essentially tied. But I think they're both top twelve receivers, So I don't think you can go wrong with either one of those guys. Let's go to the Washington football team. Where are you on Curtis Samuel? Because I think I think Gibson's known quantity. Logan Thomas is a known quantity, or at least he's kind of locked into that tight end seven spot. But I think Samuel is a little bit more of a wildcard. You're just given that he's you know, coming over from the Panthers.
00:02:16
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you know, I haven't ranked wide receiver forty seven right now, adp is wide receiver fifty two. I think the market may be underestimating his one to two carries per game that I sneak into my projections. But you know, he's not a guy targeting. This is the range we're shooting for the moon, and he's more of a high four guy. But even in this offense, I don't know if we could say that, Like you said, they have Logan Thomas, they have Terry McLaurin. You know, I don't know how they're gonna use Curtis Samuel in the backfield. They already have Antonio Gibson and J D. McKissick. So it's, you know, his role may be limited, and he's the kind of guy that sort of needs volume to hit in fantasy. So I just don't know if we're going to get that week too week. So I'm off on him, even though I'm a little bit ahead of ADP. Where are you on him? Though?
00:03:03
Speaker 3: Yeah, I haven't met wide receiver fifty one, so I'm pretty much in line with consensus.
00:03:08
Speaker 2: Uh.
00:03:09
Speaker 3: Yeah, he's it's you know, he's there for the taking, but I don't see him being a big air yards guy.
00:03:14
Speaker 2: That's not the best way to use him.
00:03:15
Speaker 3: So he's gonna have to be a big PPR guy, but he's still behind you know, McLaurin, Thomas and probably McKissick even for targets.
00:03:25
Speaker 1: So and he missed, he missed like most of camp right in preseason. So that's not good when you have a you're in a new maybe not a new system for him, but new team with a new quarterback, Like that's not good.
00:03:37
Speaker 3: Yeah, and he has struggle with injuries at times in his career. So yeah, just not a guy that I think is going to be a league winner. So not getting too much of him. Patterson is really the deep sleeper that I like on this team because I have him know right his borderline, you know, top sixty running back, So I think he deserves to be picked just for just for his upside and the fact that he showcased so time.
00:03:58
Speaker 2: Remember this is the.
00:03:58
Speaker 3: Same organization that found you know, Antonio Gibson, a legit, you know, workhorse back in the middle rounds of the draft. So they and they and they kind of you turned the kitsick you know, nobody wanted into a viable threat. So this is a this is a good organization with Ron Rivera at the helm for unearthing these these backs, and he also took Christian McCaffrey. So yeah, this is a pretty good track record here. So don't mind the dart throw on Patterson. Uh, if you're in a deep league of best ball going like extreme zero running back and want to benefit from some some variants or whatever, not so uh that's what I'm doing with with the football team.
00:04:41
Speaker 2: The Eagles.
00:04:43
Speaker 3: It's interesting because they have these guys going in the middle rounds.
00:04:48
Speaker 2: That I don't know.
00:04:50
Speaker 3: It's just tough to go either to feel like amazing about them or feel like too two down on them.
00:04:55
Speaker 2: But I don't know.
00:04:57
Speaker 3: Miles Sanders, Davonte Smith, and Dallas Goddard.
00:05:01
Speaker 2: Who's the best value for you of those two guys.
00:05:04
Speaker 3: I know they are different positions, but that's kind of a point, like, if you're investing in this offense, who's the best value for you.
00:05:11
Speaker 1: I don't love any of them, mainly because Jalen hurts. You know, he robs them of their value because of his rushing ability, his inaccuracy as a passer. So I think Miles Sanders, I'm in line with adp at least, he's a guy that I don't go into drafts wanting to draft him. But if he were to Faull to me at the end of the RB two tier, and you know I was busy taking wide receivers and tight ends in the first few rounds. He's a guy that could be part of my draft plan. DeVante Smith, I think is being drafted a bit too high. And then Dallas Goddter. I mean, I feel like we talked about every pod, but he's a bit risky where he's going. But his ADP has dipped enough to where I think, at you know, tight end twelve, I would consider him. I think he is talented enough, even with zach Ertz still there, to produce value there, especially considering I keep mentioning this tight end two tier is collapsing beneath him, so that's kind of raising his value a little bit. But you know, all these guys, I'm uninterested this. This is an offense where you know, Jalen Hurts is gonna be the fancy asset from this teams.
00:06:17
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree, I Hurts is really the guy it's target. Out of those three guys, it's Smith for me, just because you have like some of that unknown giving you that upside.
00:06:27
Speaker 2: Now, I do agree.
00:06:29
Speaker 3: I think he's being drafted a little too high, but there's a chance for you know the air yard hogging, the target hogging there and in some of the offscript plays, and you know he's kind of competing, you know, wide receiver, he's competing with Jalen Rager and Quez Watkins, so he's gonna be open. And then you know, tight ends, as we talked about, they don't really influence like there there there's only a few tight ends that really draw out that like alpha target share that are gonna change, you know, the wide receivers projection.
00:07:01
Speaker 2: That's a short list.
00:07:02
Speaker 3: It's like Waller and and Kelsey and so yeah, I think I think Smith has some some upside here, but it's hurt. It really hurts their bust for me went investing into this Eagles offense. The Giants another team that, aside from Saquon who we've talked about, probably a little too risky to to be an optimal first second round pick given that everybody has ceiling in that range. But outside of him, another team where everyone's going you know, fifth, sixth round or later, usually gaud A Shepherd Ingram who's a little banged up. Slayton even got the rookie Tony Devontae Booker, the Saquon handcuff, Daniel Jones late round quarterback, any who's the best value outside of Saquon?
00:07:54
Speaker 2: Like, who do you target? If who should? Who would you target if you had to in this offense?
00:08:00
Speaker 1: I mean, it's so crowded that like none of them really, But it leads me to Daniel Jones at QB like twenty nine. For any of these guys to hit, he has to be good. So the answer is Daniel Jones. And I think he still carries that you know, weekly QB one upside, so he's more of a best ball for a target for me. You can get him super late. He's not really a threat to get benched necessarily, so he should play all seventeen games as long as he stays healthy. Out of the pass catchers, I would say Sterling Shepherd is probably the best target. You know, he's sort of under the radar where he could be the target leader in this offense. You know, Kenny Galladay has missed pretty much all of the camp in preseason, so we don't even know if he's healthy. So we've known that strung Shepherd can be you know, a target monster when needed. So I think out of all these guys, it would be Shepherd for me.
00:08:53
Speaker 3: Yeah, Shepherd is the pass catcher I get the most of in drafts. He's great in a full PPR especially. He averaged five point seven catches per game in twenty nineteen, five point five last year.
00:09:05
Speaker 2: That's so that's a lot of catches.
00:09:06
Speaker 3: And that that's you know, with Daniel Jones mostly so I think Shepherd is somewhat of a value, not going to give you much in the touchdown department, but he does get some rushing attempts. Jones I do like at as a late round quarterback, just more so because of the rushing upside, you know, the passing.
00:09:25
Speaker 2: It'll land where it lands.
00:09:26
Speaker 3: But I do have Jones ranked QB twenty, which again you know he usually goes far later than that, So like him.
00:09:34
Speaker 2: And then I am starting.
00:09:35
Speaker 3: To take just a little bit of DeVante Booker because I think it gives you some some interesting like anti fragile nests with you know, every like being down on Saquon. How do you profit off that, Well, you could take the guy that you know will be the RB, you know, be their starter as Saquon goes down and essentially for free and Remember, you know the risks of Saquon apply because he's a first second round pick. Look at a guy like Wayne Gollman, who you could have got for free last year or picked up on waivers. You know, he gave you in the middle of the season, you know RB two high end RB two production. So that's kind of the way I like to invest in this team is go with the guys that you could get for free, Daniel Jones and Booker the NFC North we got the Packers. Robert Tunyan kind of came out of nowhere last year, double digit touchdowns. Where do you have him ranked the midst of this tight end chaos?
00:10:33
Speaker 1: So he's tight end ten ten right now, and honestly, it's it's like a four to eight way tie for this massive, massive tier. So he's tight end ten. But again, you can't go wrong if you take him tight end seven. He's a tight He's a touchdown dependent tight end that should probably score a bunch of touchdowns again this year, So I can't fault you for taking him. He might be a little less consistent than a guy like a Logan Thomas or even to know of fans, So that's why I have him tight end ten. But you know, I'm avoiding the list here to begin with. Like I said, once the top six tight ends are off the board, I'm basically punting until the end of the draft and just take a flyer on whoever's left. But where do you have Tanya Now?
00:11:17
Speaker 3: I have him tighten nine, and I do get some of him because he sometimes falls into that, you know, outside of the top one hundred picks. And he's still on a short list of tight ends that has no ten to fifteen touchdown upside. So I still I don't mind investing in him as long as I don't have to get him above his ADP. I will never take him over a guy like Logan Thomas because Thomas run you know, ran around on ninety percent of the dropbacks and Tanyan was at sixty five percent. So there is a difference there and that opens you up to you know, that touchdown variance if he doesn't, if Rogers regresses or whatnot. But I still think the upside is there, and there it is enough of a ship show that you know, Tanyan should be among the top red zone targets and among the top leaders and touchdowns at the position. So the fact that if you can get him is like one of the last people to take your tight end.
00:12:11
Speaker 2: I don't hate it.
00:12:12
Speaker 3: I'd rather take him than like wait for like now that this cheer has totally deteriorated, like I'd rather take him than than wait on something like a few weeks ago, it was like, Okay, there are some guys I can take if I wait. You know, Evan Ingram, but he's gone, or Smith or he's starting to get hurt or Smith hurt. You know, jack ERT's still interesting to me. But yeah, there's a lot less guys now, I think that.
00:12:39
Speaker 1: Who's your tight end? Ten? Then, like, who do we have?
00:12:42
Speaker 2: I think it's still got her. Let me, let me do what you have.
00:12:45
Speaker 1: So I Logan Thomas and Tyler Higby ranked above Tanya. Do you have any of those guys?
00:12:51
Speaker 2: No fants I have at eight? I believe so.
00:12:54
Speaker 3: Then, but it's neck and neck, and I don't mind taking Tanyan over Fan because I do think you know, Fan, it's year three. Tight End breakouts happen a little more in year three than wide receivers usually year two now, just because they get just how the game is going. But tight end is a little tougher, So I do like the talent there. I think it's a little crowded, but I don't mind taking Tony and just for that touchdown. Just chasing that touchdown upside and he usually get is cheaper than fans.
00:13:20
Speaker 2: So that's really what it comes down to.
00:13:22
Speaker 3: Higbee I think is you know, he's right there, but I think Stafford benefits the receivers a little more than the tight end in that offense. So and I think Titian has more touchdown upside than Higbee.
00:13:34
Speaker 1: So it makes sense.
00:13:36
Speaker 3: Let's go to the talk about the vikings with IRV Smiths. You know swaited to miss time. Where are you ranking Tyra Concline? Now, it looks like Smith's going to be out the entire year. It has like a four to five month timeline on the was it moniscus surgery?
00:13:53
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, they I guess it was between cleaning it up or doing a full repair, and they went the full repair route. So it's unfortunate he'll miss this season, but he should be one hundred percent next year, so we'll get to see him break out.
00:14:06
Speaker 2: Then.
00:14:07
Speaker 1: I have Tyler Conklin tight end twenty seven right now, so he's in that you know, Blake Jarvin, Eric Ebron Hayden Hurst. I have Adam Troutman there too. Tier This is only you know, deeper tight end premium formats where you need to care about him. But he's clearly the tight end one. I'm not too concerned about Chris Hernon. Once they made the trade for Chris Herndon, I fear the worst for Arv Smith. So we'll see. Maybe Herndon has some potential with the change of scenery, but I'm avoiding these guys anyway. I think it's just going to be, you know, probably more targets for Justin Jefferson, Adam Helen, and Dalvin Cook. So outside of those three, I want nothing to with the Vikings. I don't care who the number three wide receiver is. I'm trying to figure out who it's going to be. Don't care. It's it's the three main guys for this team or bust for me.
00:14:54
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean the number three receiver will probably be Emir Smith Marsette. He'll loves a return kicks. I think Osbourne has taken some reps there, but Smith Mark sat is like in a super deep week, he does have some up upside, just because he's been you know, he's playing well, and they could go a lot more three receiver sets without Smith. That's what the That's what Zimmer said. So but yeah, I have conclorin at twenty four. I think he is, you know, a viable in basketball, and he does. He does have some upside because again the Titan has been a big part of this offense, and Herndon is not really a threat for targets even if they're running routes at the same time. So Conkland could factor in, give you some big weeks. Maybe DFS play well on DFS player or something like that. So that's how I kind of attack him. The Bears another team where it's kind of top heavy of Montgomery, you have Alan Robinson. Is there any value on this team outside of them?
00:15:52
Speaker 2: Mooney?
00:15:52
Speaker 1: Maybe well, and justin fields obviously, but we don't need to talk about him. You know, if he starts weak two, he's gonna crush his a. But yeah, Darnell Mooney for me, you know, I keep mentioning this, but he was the tenth most targeted player downfield last year of twenty four targets of twenty plus air yards, but the second worst catchable wall rate. Only six of those are catchable. So you would assume with improved quarterback play, which I think justin Fields will bring. You know, he's he's gonna unlock that deep threat that Mooney has. So I think Mooney, you know, as a high upside wide receiver sort of in that Nico Hardman Elijah Moore range, just one of those guys where you were just taking a flyer and if if he doesn't pan out, he's not going to kill you. He's one of those guys that I'm targeting.
00:16:38
Speaker 3: Yeah, I have him at fifty five, but you know, so in that glut like you said, but I do like his upside.
00:16:43
Speaker 1: I do like to.
00:16:44
Speaker 3: Target him over you know, Curtis Samuel and especially and if it's not a full PPR format, because I think he has some air yard upside that is attractive and he has that year two that year to break out potential here to to crush his ADP of things go if things go right, So like Mooney. But that's yeah, that's about it, not really touching the tight ends committing Graham still, I think too much of a committee to find any any true value there. And then the quarterback way is still not going to be great, so not really too interested in the Bear and the old line should not.
00:17:19
Speaker 2: Be should be pretty bad as well.
00:17:21
Speaker 3: The Lions. DeAndre Swift still goes in the usually in the top fifteen, top twenty, maybe with the ADP phone a little bit, but Jamal Williams usually goes closer to the fortieth running back.
00:17:35
Speaker 2: Who do you think is the better value of those two guys?
00:17:38
Speaker 1: Probably Williams. He's the anti fragile type of back that you mentioned earlier, but he's the kind of guy where, even when Swift is healthy, this could be closer to a fifty to fifty time sure than people are willing to admit, so he might be able to provide some RB three flex value on occasion depending on the game script. We need to see how this kind of works out in the receiving game. But you know, if DeAndre Swift were to miss any time, I think Jamal Williams will be RB two RB three type of back. So that's why I tend to prefer the backup in situations like this. But you mentioned DeAndre Swift, his ADP has been all over the map. If if he goes into the top fifteen, I'm basically not getting him at all, But if he falls to me in the RB twenty range, I'll absolutely take a flyer on him. He should be closer to one hundred percent going in a week one than we thought, you know, a couple of weeks ago, so you know, I think he still has that upside. So he's the guy kind of guy. Where Again, if you're attacking wide receiver tight end early in the draft and he ends up falling to you as a low in RB two, I can get behind that. I think he is talented enough to warrant that. And you know, the Lions are gonna have a ton of trailing game scripts and I think Swift should be the pass catching back. Like I said, We'll see, but I think he'll still be playable in these negative game scripts. So that's why I still think Swift is okay at like RB twenty.
00:19:00
Speaker 3: Yeah, I haven't gotten too much of him. I mean, you have the availability concerns. I do, like, you know, the breakout potential, but it's just tough for me to justify him over guys that project for a much safer Carrie floor, like Carson and Jacobs and James Robinson like Swift only averaged like eight point was it about nine carries per game last year, So we don't know if he's really going to jump. Because they did acquire Jamal Williams, Jamar Jefferson has played well in the preseason the rookie, and then I.
00:19:33
Speaker 2: Think they might even keep a fourth back active.
00:19:36
Speaker 3: God wouldn't is Wabuke or I'm not even trying to pronounce his name, but you know, they have a pretty voted backfield to where they can mix and match and you know, kind of monitor Swift's reps because he they've been there's been a lot of kind of negative negativity surrounding his availability and health from the coaching staff itself.
00:19:55
Speaker 2: So that does raise a little bit of a red flag.
00:19:58
Speaker 3: So in a full PBI, I think it's the best time to you know, kind of maximize the upside. But in happy VR and standard, I've been going to two guys who I just think have safe for Carrie Floores in his ADP range. What about the the receiving core. We love Hockinson, but at wide receiver, I mean somebody has to catch the ball. Here you have aman Ross Saint Brown. The rookie should be kind of a slot guy who could he'll be like top two in terms of routes, kind of maximize it by I usually do it in full PPR team and then Tyroll Williams should be locked into one starting role and then who knows what they're going to do with the other side. They released powerman Cephis Benson they traded for Cephis could factor in kuif Raymond had a good camp.
00:20:40
Speaker 2: Who knows. But will Saint Brown or Tyroll.
00:20:44
Speaker 3: Be viable at all given that there is still some target share up for grabs there or are you staying away? No?
00:20:50
Speaker 1: I think Saint Brown is the guy worth targeting, Like you know, you get them basically for free. He's a better fit with Jared Goff. You know, Tyrell Williams might be the alpha reci that draws the top cornerback every week, and he's not really the playing style that Goff typically target. So I think Saint Brown's going to be sort of the target funnel all up Cooper Cup in the slot. We know Jared Goff's you know, always willing to target as a slot receiver. But at the end of the day, like you already mentioned TJ. Howkinson as my boy, I think, you know at tight end six. He's really my perfect draft strategy is getting TJ. Hawkinson at tight end six. He ultimately will be the number one target in this offense. I don't even think they have a backup tight end right now. So yeah, so he's the number one target. But after that, I think I'm on Saint Brown out of the slot will be the number two target in this offense.
00:21:41
Speaker 3: Yeah, Hockinson has like one hundred catch up side on his high range of outcomes, which you can't say for any of the receivers.
00:21:47
Speaker 2: So love Hockinson. I think Saint Brown.
00:21:50
Speaker 3: You maximize him by doing it in full PPR because I don't expect this team to throw a lot of touchdowns, and I expect Saint Brown to have a low which you have to target, which is you know, it is good because it helps you get, you know, receptions, but I don't think the touchdowns will be there, and I don't know that the yardage will be there, just given that you have Jared Goffick quarterback too, So.
00:22:13
Speaker 1: Yeah, probably he probably won't give you a Justin Jefferson type rookie season, but yeah, just like a sixty catch nice little PPR season In deeper leags for sure.
00:22:23
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the ceiling is like Cooper Cupp who you know, played well with Jared Goff his rookie year, but obviously that was a Sean McVay offense. This is an Anthony win offense. So I mean maybe keenan Allen role, who knows. But there's some upside there is what I'm saying. But next up here on the Fantasy Flex is an all new segment that we've been doing called Elite Entries, where Sean and I dive into the Prize Picks app and compare our player projections to the props and.
00:22:50
Speaker 2: Build some entries. For listeners unfamiliar with Prize Picks, it's a super simple way to play DFS.
00:22:57
Speaker 3: Prize Picks offers a bunch of fantasy and over undermarkets for both daily and season long like Zeke Elliott rushing yards for the season or Josh Allen Week one Fantasy points. You choose the picks you like and you build your entry.
00:23:13
Speaker 2: You can go two, three, four, or even.
00:23:15
Speaker 3: Five picks, and your payout is based on how big your lineup is and how.
00:23:19
Speaker 2: Much you risk.
00:23:20
Speaker 3: For example, if you choose two props like Zeke under and Josh Allen over and they both hit you get three times er entry feed, but if you build an entry with four props, you can win up to ten times your entry fee. So Sean and I like use our projections who identify markets we like in the prize picks app and we're gonna look at three today.
00:23:42
Speaker 2: Sean, what is your first prize pick?
00:23:46
Speaker 1: So hopefully you listen to my advice a couple of weeks ago and built some entries around Gus Edwards over six hundred rushing yards. It is now up to eight hundred and fifty and a half rushing yards due to JK. Dobbins season I Andrey I still think this is too low. I'm projecting him post to one thousand yards, so I would actually pick this up to about nine to twenty five rushing yards. So I still think we still we have some value here at eight fifty So I love the over yep.
00:24:14
Speaker 3: I have Gus Edwards over nine hundred yards in my model as well, so I like that one. For mine, I'm going with gets running back Michael Carter over five seventy five and a half rushing yards. Again, I think there's been some pessimism after it was a backfield committee in the preseason, and well, I do think the other backs will mix in. The cream always rises to the top, and that cream is Carter. He's great in the past game, he's great in the run game, and this.
00:24:47
Speaker 2: Is a really low bar to clear.
00:24:49
Speaker 3: So I have him well over six hundred rushing yards on the season, and that's a pretty conservative projection. So I love the over five to seventy five and a half. Who's your final prize pick entry for this week's shop?
00:25:03
Speaker 1: So I'm diving into the Week one pool here. I just came out with my initial Week one projections, so I'm going with the Justin Herbert under two hundred and seventy four and a half passing yards Week one. They're at Washington, so this is gonna be a really tough test to begin this season. He's on our new system under new offensive quarter Joe Lombardi, so you know he might take a couple of weeks to kind of get some the system, really get going. This is a really tough test week one, and Justin Herbert benefited his rookie season not having to play away games in front of you know, maximum capacity crowd, so you know, maybe he's a little rattled week one when they have a full crowd there. So I love the under here. I'm projecting this culture to two sixty soul. I would pick this down to about two seven ors.
00:25:50
Speaker 3: So yeah, I like that Herbert call Washington is a tough defense to move the ball against.
00:25:57
Speaker 2: So like that one as well.
00:25:58
Speaker 3: And that's going to do it for our elite entry for today again, we're going with Gus Edwards over eight hundred and fifty and a half rushing yards for the season, Michael Carter over five hundred seventy five and a half rushing yards for the season, and Justin Herbert under two hundred and seventy four and a half passing.
00:26:19
Speaker 2: Yards in week one. As a reminder, Prize Picks markets do move.
00:26:25
Speaker 3: So you want to be nimble to lock in those numbers before they.
00:26:31
Speaker 2: Are on the move.
00:26:32
Speaker 3: If you haven't created a prize Picks account yet, check out the link in our episode description.
00:26:37
Speaker 2: They will match.
00:26:38
Speaker 3: Your first deposit up to one hundred dollars. Or visit prize picks dot com and use the promo code Action ten. That's Action one zero at prizepicks dot com. Okay, back to the fantasy flex the NFC South, we have the Bucks, we have of Evans and Godwin going pretty high in the top twenty receivers, there's no question about that. But this is a great offense. Tom Brady at the Helm good Old line. So among these middle round guys, who do you like as the best value Antonio Brown, Ronald Jones, or Leonard Fournette.
00:27:23
Speaker 1: Let me just start off by saying it's not Ronald Jones, so he's number three for me, and then it's probably a toss up, honestly between Leonard Fournette, who I don't get. He's not a running back I seek out and drafts. But at RB thirty six, you could do worse. You know, maybe we see playoff money all season, who knows, but he's the only back in this offense that can kind of dominate the rushing work and receiving work if either Ronald Jones or Joe Bernard were at a miss time. But you know, Antonio Brown, I think he's one of those players where I have a ranked forty fifth, but I'd probably draft him much earlier. So his ADP at thirty five does sound about I think that's you know, that's sort of his ceiling honestly if everybody says healthy. But he's probably the guy with the most upside out of these three, so I would target him if I mean, imagine if either Mike Evans or Chris Godden were to go down. I mean, he has wide receiver two upside for sure, So he's one of those guys at that point in the draft, I am, okay kind of reaching for that ceiling. So I would probably lean Antonio Brown out of these three.
00:28:25
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm an ad at forty two, but I agree.
00:28:27
Speaker 3: I mean, he say, I believe he averaged the most catches per game once they acquired him out of all of them, so you know, he just his he was getting targeted on those like little gimme short routes, so it wasn't it's not the same as it was in Pittsburgh necessarily, but he's still Antonio Brown. He's still a guy who could be a high volume receiver. So yeah, it's it's him for me. I'm you know, I don't hate Ronald Jones as much as I did earlier because and I do end up getting him sometimes because when you look at the Bucks schedule, I mean they just have a very very favorable schedule, So there could be a scenario where, especially given how good the defense is and how you know that, the fact that you have a quarterback that's gonna convert on third down and get you up and down the field, the running backs could be valuable, very valuable on this team, even though it is a committee. I mean there's a lot of offenses these days with committees. So Ronald Jones has that double digit touchdown upside. I still think uh and Fournette I think gets dinged a little more because even though he got the receiving usage last year, I think that's why they went out and got Bernard because they don't like Fournette's not really a great receiver. It's just you know, when you have Tom Brady and everyone else is going deep, you're gonna you're gonna get some catches. But I think I think he's I do agree that he has that like due threat capability, but I think the plan is to reduce his role, whereas Jones role because he didn't ever rely on receiving usage in the first place. I think he kind of maintains the same role. So I think I actually like Jones more than fort have. Jones thirty two and for Nett's thirty nine in Happy People.
00:30:03
Speaker 1: That's fair, And I was going to mention, you know, Ronald Jones is too one dimensional, but you know, the Buccaneers should provide plenty of Ronald Jones game script. So you know, I do like him that regard, but I think Fournett definitely has a higher ceiling, and again in this range at running back, that's kind of what I'm going for.
00:30:21
Speaker 3: All right, let's go to the Falcons. Where are you ending up on Mike Davis?
00:30:28
Speaker 1: I mean I like Mike Davis. He's RB twenty two right now. He really doesn't have much depth behind him. I know that they're talking about using Quadria Olison and Cordell Patterson as sort of a running back by committee, but this could be a pretty run heavy offense under Arthur Smith. So you know, I do like Mike Davis. Unfortunately, he does sort of fit the definition of a frozen pond running back because although he's the number of the week one starter, I mean, he's not a lot to hang on to all season. He's you know, he's been a journeyman his entire career. He had the breakout season last year when CMC went down, but you know, anything can happened in this backfield. The one thing going for him, like I said, is the depth chart behind him is pretty weak, but there is still some uncertainty there. So having said that, he I urge a little bit of caution drafting him at running back twenty two. But that's that's where my projections having.
00:31:21
Speaker 3: Ranked, Yeah, I have to have him RB nineteen, so I'm a little easy. Yeah, I think I'm a little higher on consensus. And I don't mind him at all because, yeah, number one, the backfield is pretty weak depth wise, but number two I read a quote from Arthur Blank, the Owner, and you know, I love, I love kind of getting inside these organizations heads cause I think that's where the edge is not and like who's making who's catching the ball at camp or this or that it is going to be all puff pieces. But sometimes you can find an edge just understanding what the organization is thinking. And you know, I think the question was asked of him, like why did you go with an offensive guy in Arthur Smith after he had all these defensive guys Dan Quinn and whatnot. And he he was like, you know, we need to like run the ball, and well that is not maybe that's not the best thing from a you know, football analytics standpoint. Uh, he's the owner, and that's there's gonna be an emphasis on running the ball. So I totally agree. I think this offense could look completely different. Remember, Arthur Smith is the king of running the ship out of the ball. Obviously he had Derrick Henry, but uh, you know that's what he's done, and and he's made a passing game effective by doing it. But uh, the running back has been very valuable in his offenses. And you know, the owner is saying like, hey, you know when we were good and we were winning, you know we had a run game. We would run efficiently, and uh that would help our defense, which we know isn't that great and it's going to take some time to rebuild. So I think this is a team that's fully going to try to implement that Tennessee strategy to some degree. Uh. And remember the Falcons have been like the past heaviest team the last couple of years in the league. I mean it was you know, they were in the mid sixth fifties in past attempts every year. So we could see a dramatically different offense, and it's just hard, you know, even because I do have you know, I'm projecting Davis for only about fifty on the season, only about fifty five percent of the total running back carries, you know, after counting in the miss games.
00:33:21
Speaker 2: But I still have him up pretty high. It's going to be hard.
00:33:24
Speaker 3: Allison's not really a threat to run too many routes out of the backfield. And then Patterson he's you know, he's not even a true he's like a running back wide receiver hybrid. So Davis should be on the field for a lot of pass naps and they should put an emphasis on running the ball.
00:33:38
Speaker 2: So I think, you know, I'm fine with him.
00:33:40
Speaker 3: Again, this is I think this is just a better RB two tier than than the year's pass And I like Davis a lot more than a guy like Todd Gurley, and Todd Gurley even was fine last year.
00:33:48
Speaker 2: So yeah, he got benched.
00:33:52
Speaker 1: Yeah, Davis is twenty years old, but he doesn't have that much tread on his tires. You know, he has four hundred and twelve career carries, so he might be a little bit fresher than your average twenty eight year old running back. So that that's certainly going in his favor. And obviously he's no Derrick Henry, we know that, but he does at least have that pass catching up side that Henry doesn't really have, so I could see how he would just thrive in this Arthur Smith offense.
00:34:16
Speaker 3: Yeah, he plays hard, He'll get you some yards after the contact. Probably not going to be a high yard per carry guy all things considered, But yeah, I'm a little higher on him.
00:34:25
Speaker 2: I don't mind.
00:34:26
Speaker 3: I don't mind getting him especially, you know Waight fifth thirly six if you need that that second running back.
00:34:30
Speaker 1: Or didn't he have the highest broken tackle rate of qualified running backs last year? I think that I might need to double check that, but pretty sure.
00:34:41
Speaker 2: I can check right now.
00:34:42
Speaker 3: Let's see, I do know, I do see that he's He was seventh on the year in in miss tackles forced in PFF and pretty much every running back on that list had more carries than him on the top six, so he should be up there.
00:34:57
Speaker 2: Yeah, he should be up there.
00:34:59
Speaker 3: He averaged three yards after contact, which is very good. So yeah, I think he's a I think he's a solid pick here. Not down on him at all, just given a situation for Carolina. I think we love Harris Marshall, especially David Moore being released, but.
00:35:20
Speaker 2: We also love Robbie Anderson.
00:35:22
Speaker 3: And then DJ Moore has put up too straight eleven hundred yard plus yard seasons, and there's also Christian McCaffrey, and there's also Dan Arnold should be more involved than Ian Thomas last year. So I guess my concern is, like, how likely are we to get a bust or two out of this Carolina pass catching unit given that we still have Sam Donald that quarterback, Like how many pass catchers can Sam Donald truly support?
00:35:47
Speaker 1: Yeah, probably not more than two or three, right, and you know CMC will probably be an every week hit. So that leaves, yeah, like one or two receivers after that. So I'm very worried that, you know, like a DJ Moore or Robbie Anderson could be inconsistent. So that's why you know DJ Moore at I think he's wide receiver eighteen now kind of scares me. I don't like to overspend an offense like this where you made a great point like this is a Sam Darnold offense, So I would say Dj Moore, I'd be cautious about that and I do like a guy like Terrence Marshall way later because you can get him, you know, super cheap. He might be the odd man out most weeks, but he will have weeks you know, where he scores a touchdown or he's heavily evolved. So he's a guy that can also kind of impact DJ Moore and Robbie Anderson negatively. So this is a very uh, this is offense they have to be careful about. They were able to support three receivers last year with Teddy Bridgewater, but you know, Christ McCaffery is out for most of the season, so that might be why. So that I'd be very careful. And the thing I've been doing is just not drafting Dj Moore at wide receiver eighteen because of the you know, the lower flour of this offense will have week to week.
00:36:58
Speaker 3: Yeah, he's he's my wide receiver twenty five.
00:37:01
Speaker 2: So whoa yeah in.
00:37:03
Speaker 3: That And that's because you know, I still have Anderson at thirty two and h and Marshall. You know, even though I haven't projected for about uh, you know, close to eighty percent of the routes per game like Samuel Ran last year, He's still my wide receiver, uh seventy because he just you know, the they're just there's just only so many targets to go around, and we don't know. We can't just project like a huge, huge change in efficiency for Donald, like I do have him better than he was in his Jets days Teddy Bridgewater average I think it was seven point six yards per attempt. So the receivers will definitely help Donald, but you also have to account for the fact that you know, Dan Arnold should comand a bigger target share than Thomas who was essentially running routes and nothing was happening when he ran those routes. So yeah, uh there, Yeah, it's just a it's just a numbers game where in West here, but we a huge believer in Donald taking a big step. I think there's gonna be at least some inconsistency. Even if these guys kind of hit their overall marks by the end of the season, you may not know exactly when to bench or start.
00:38:08
Speaker 2: Some of them. So uh, it's it's it's weird.
00:38:12
Speaker 3: It's a weird offense where it's like, I'm not too excited about it. I've been getting some Robbie when he was going real eight. But now it really depends on the on the on the league. Sometimes he goes in line with my projection of wide receiver thirty two. Sometimes you can still get him later, so yeah, it's about it.
00:38:28
Speaker 1: It's also unlikely that all these players stay healthy for all seventeen games, so I think the weeks where one or two of these players are out, the rest will benefit. But that's why you don't want to invest in like needing players to get hurt or miss time for a guy to hit. But that's that's where the upside for a guy like Marshall comes into play. Is if either DJ Moore or Robbie and Erson missed time, I think he does have that wide receiver three upside. But other than that, when they're all healthy, super low floor for everybody.
00:38:55
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I think you're right about more because it's just he's the guy that's still going in that premium range where he might have already hit his ceiling, you know, eleven hundred plus yards and back to back years, Like, there's not much higher he can go just given all of the guys around him and then the balance around him. But he's going in that range where you want that like wide receiver one overall upside still that I just don't know if More truly gives you that.
00:39:20
Speaker 2: Even though he's been he's been great and he's a great receiver, he.
00:39:23
Speaker 3: Might have from a numbers perspective, he might have topped out with the yardage these last couple.
00:39:28
Speaker 2: Of seasons the Saints.
00:39:30
Speaker 3: Who's the top value for you outside of Alvin Kamara, Marcus Cowaway? Is it Michael Thomas, Troutman, tray Kwon, Latavius.
00:39:40
Speaker 2: Who do you like? Who you targeting the most? Outside of Alvin Kamara?
00:39:45
Speaker 1: It's probably Latavious. He's always the anti fragile back I like to get sort of in that RB forty five to RB fifty range. I know there was some concern that he might be leaped fragged by Tony Jones. That doesn't appear to be the case, so I still think he's safe in the RB forty five range. Other than that, these guys aren't really guys. I'm targeting Marcuz Callaway. I do like him, but you know his ADP's wide receiver forty four. Now that's pretty rich, especially when the factor in that you know Michael Thomas should return at some point, So I think Callaway's value's only going to go down. Like when it comes to the fantasy playffs are going to be starting Kelly probably not. You know, Taysom Hill could take over any time. I think once that happens, you're not gonna like Callaway as much. So I think, you know, of all the preseason overreactions, I think Callaway being you know, wide receiver forty four might be one of them. Unfortunately, but outside of Kamara, this is an offense I'm basically staying away from now other than Latavius Murray is at a high upside backup.
00:40:53
Speaker 3: Actually, well, Callaway, I think I think I think we should still be drafting him because number one, he's going to start the season. Well, you know, you still have Winston, you have Thomas out, So if you can get you know, a guy in that range who gives you, I think legit like wide receiver two upside, it should like he should be a target hog every week.
00:41:12
Speaker 2: You know, all these weeks that Thomas.
00:41:14
Speaker 3: Is out, and when you look at like the rest of the Saints, you know you have Kamara there. With Thomas out, there's really no other guy that's going to command targets. You know, like trout Win is a very was a very low like target per out run guy. Trey Quon Smith's ridiculously low and calways.
00:41:33
Speaker 2: Like he should be right there.
00:41:34
Speaker 3: And then when Thomas gets back, I think you're going to see a few more like it's gonna be a little bit of a higher volume pass offense, and you know, the all the defensive attention is going to be on Camara and Thomas. So I think Callaways still can have you know, decent weeks even then.
00:41:51
Speaker 2: So I still like him going.
00:41:53
Speaker 3: Here because I just and just based on how well he like, you know, how well he's played. Because the Saints are another team that they tend to unearth these receivers, like they Colston, Willie Sneid. You know, They've had a lot of productive guys that coming into this season, or at least their first seasons really being in a prominent role, people kind of wrote off and then look they look back and it's like, oh, this guy was really productive. So I like Cowawi. I still like Cowi. He's the guy Murray I do get. But you know, just because of you know, there's been some skepticism and he is getting a little older, Like I'm not as excited as I was maybe like one two years ago about it. I still think if Kamara goes down, he leads the way and he gives you that running back one upside. But he is also a guy that could kind of fall off a cliff, and I mean maybe he does at some point get leap frog too.
00:42:42
Speaker 1: So do you have week one projections or rankings by any chance?
00:42:46
Speaker 2: I haven't. I haven't started that yet.
00:42:49
Speaker 1: Yeah, I have to callaway wide receiver thirty one. I was curious where you have him, But I do agree that he will get off to a fast start. But I like having really strong receivers, so I prefer for having like a Jerry Judy as my wide receiver three, not Calloway. But certainly if you're in a situation where you know you tag running back early on or tight end and Callowy is your wide receiver three to begin the year, I won't you know, slam me for that, but I just think that his value will only go down as the ear goes on. Unfortunately.
00:43:18
Speaker 2: Yeah, well we can go to.
00:43:19
Speaker 3: The wid receaver forty four and sometimes later than that and like more casual league. So yeah, you know, like we're in any sharp drafts where exactly, Yeah, he goes like wide receivers thirty five, and like I wouldn't, I don't need to start him as my wide receiver three. And like you said, you have him ranked inside the wide receiver three ranks already in Week one, even in a tough matchup against that Again, he's was it Green Bay, right.
00:43:42
Speaker 1: Yeah, That's why he's tricky to discuss, because again, if you're if you're stashing him on your bench, you know you're kind of losing that value. He's going to hit the ground running week one, So it sort of depends on your format. But certainly, if you can get him outside of the wide receiver fifty range, he's obviously worth it. There's just like I think I'd rather take a guy like Will Fuller honestly in that range. Maybe, oh, Michael Gallup in that range, But other than that, I think, yeah, if you can get around why I was here for forty five and Michael Gallop and Will Fuller or off the board, I can certainly get behind that.
00:44:16
Speaker 3: All right, Let's go to the West and we'll finish it out with the Rams and the Niners and the Seahawks's start with the Cardinals Chase Edmunds and James Connor.
00:44:29
Speaker 2: Edmunds usually goes right around.
00:44:32
Speaker 3: The mid twenties and running back ADP maybe the low twenties. Connor usually about ten spots lower than that, maybe in the outside definitely usually outside the top one hundred picks in that running back thirty five to forty range.
00:44:47
Speaker 2: Who's the better value for you at ADP?
00:44:51
Speaker 1: I would say Edmunds probably has the higher ceiling, so he's probably the better value. But honestly, both running backs sort of offer some value ADP because I think even if both stay healthy, they should be able to kind of upproduce as ADP. And if either one goes down, I mean, you know, they're gonna be pretty legit RB twos. But you know it depends if James Connor inherits like the full Kenyon Drake role. I mean, Edmunds was still able to put up RB twenty eight numbers even with Kenny on Drake there. So I think Edmunds is probably the guy for me, because you know, he just has that massive upset. I think he could be like a legit RB two if Connor were to go down. But even if Connor is healthy, he still has his defined role where he's a you know RB three kind of flex guy, more valuable in PPR format. So I'd say, out of these two Edmunds.
00:45:43
Speaker 2: For me, yeah, I like both, Like I don't. I like because Edmunds.
00:45:49
Speaker 3: I have him, you know, RB twenty four in full PPR, and I think he has upside for even more than that.
00:45:54
Speaker 2: But Connor is also.
00:45:56
Speaker 3: Right there is like a fringe top thirty guy for me just because there Arizona almost never splits the carries three ways. So yeah, if Edmunds gets hurt, I think Connor will be like a twenty carry per game guy. If Connor gets hurt, I think Edmunds will be like a twenty carry per game guy. And even if they're splitting work, you know Edmunds with his receiving usage and he'll probably get like, you know, eight to ten carries, and then there's still probably double digit carries on the table for Connor with a catch, with a couple catches here and there, and you do have that Kenyan Drake upside. And even though Kenyan Drake people were down on him last year once you know, as the season kind of progressed, he was.
00:46:33
Speaker 2: Still like a top twenty back or fourteen.
00:46:37
Speaker 3: Right, Yeah, so Kenny like, even though it wasn't maybe impressive week in week out, it was kind of ugly, Kenny Drake still got it done and there these carries have to go somewhere.
00:46:47
Speaker 2: And this is also one of the fastest paced teams.
00:46:50
Speaker 3: So Arizona was number one in Football Outsiders situation adjusted pace at twenty seven point one seconds between plays. So that that just gives even more upside in a higher floor to the to this backfield. That should be that, it should be all, that should be all. You see, it's just those two guys, you know, when when one went down Edmunds got all the the other got all the carries last year.
00:47:18
Speaker 2: So like both of those guys at their ADP.
00:47:23
Speaker 3: For the forty nine ers, we have maybe a similar situation, but they're just a more crowded backfield. You have Trace Sermon the rookie, and you have Raheem Mostert, the incumbent starter.
00:47:35
Speaker 2: Mostert has you know, he's a.
00:47:37
Speaker 3: Talented guy, but never really held up over like a full season with a big workload. So where are you on those two guys in terms of value at ADP.
00:47:48
Speaker 2: Sermon usually goes a little higher than most are.
00:47:50
Speaker 1: This is a similar situation where I think both are worth drafting. You know, I think most are will hit the grout running. So if you're in a situation where you need a guy to start right away, most it's your guy. Week one rankings, I have him RB twenty one. They're they're against the Lions. I think he's gonna have a good game to start the season, and I have Sermon RB thirty four. But I think as the season goes on, Sermon's gonna catch up ground and eventually overtake him. And certainly, you know, Mozart hasn't been the healthiest back. He's had his injury issues, so he could end up missing time and then Sermon has you know, RB one, RB two sort of upside, they just cut Wayne Goleman, so that kind of clears up this RB three role. So I think both backs. Honestly, the forty nine ers are always a situation I'm trying to invest in. So you can make a case where you know, if you go zero RB and you need a running back to in this range, take Rahiem Moser because you can start him the first handful of games, or maybe maybe even the whole season. We'll see. But then Sermon's the kind of guy I like to have my bench where I think he's gonna peak come fantasy, you know, playoff time. He'll have games where he starts. So I think Sermon's probably the better long term investment. But I can get behind either one of these backs.
00:49:02
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean when the offseason started, I was kind of anti drafting San Francisco Backs period because it was there, was Goldman was still there. There are just a lot of certainty, you know, Mitchell hasty. But now it's cleared up a little bit because you know, Goldman got cut, Wilson's going to be out, you know, to start the year, and then Mitchell's been hurt as well, so you know, he just is getting back into the flow of things. So I think it's gonna be somewhat similar to the Denver situation, where you have a good defense, you know, you have a good running situation, and these two guys should dominate the work. Now I think there is a little bit lower of a floor both of them, just because you do have some other backs still there and Shanahan's been known to kind of mix it up. But so I like the Denver backs more like Gordon, rather Gordon in place of Moster, you know at adp or or Williams in place of Sermon.
00:49:53
Speaker 2: But uh yeah, I don't hate these guys anymore.
00:49:56
Speaker 3: They're just both kind of mid range RB three he's with with high end you know, RB two upside, So don't hate him as much as I did coming in. But I've been getting more of the Denver backfield in my in my own drafts for Seattle, and you know, we know, we know they might.
00:50:15
Speaker 2: Increase the pace.
00:50:16
Speaker 3: We know, Russell Wilson, Chris Carson and then metcalfin Lockett. That's the big four. There's not much to say about those guys. You're happy if you get any of those guys wherever they're going. But given that, you know Wilson is very efficient and there's could be a higher paced team than we've seen in years past. Is there any other way to invest in this offense? Do you think outside of those big four? Like I've seen Gerald Everett start to creep into the top one fifty in some in some spots, is he would he be the guy you target or are you just kind of staying away or somebody else?
00:50:48
Speaker 1: No, I think Everett is an interesting flyer, especially again this tight end two tiers getting decimated, so he's all the way up to tight end seventeen for me. So he's a He's a good way invest in this offense. He could end up being the number three target. You know, he's already familiar with offensive corner Shane Waldron from their time here in LA with the Rams, so I think he could be an interesting flyer. And you know, being the number three target and a Russell Wilson led offense, you can't go wrong with that. So I think out of all those guys, I think Everett would be the best way to invest in this offense cheaply. But again, I've mentioned it before in this pod that Chris Carson is definitely my most targeted Seahawks. I get him consistently at the end of the RB two tier. I think he's just a lock for the workhorse role. The only downside with Chris Carson, though, is he tends to be a violent runner and take big hits, so he's usually going to miss the game or two every year. But if facted that in already, and he's my running back fourteen. But Chris Carson, I think is the best Bank Feter Buck player on the Seahawks.
00:51:53
Speaker 3: I actually, for me, I get locked even more, and I get a lot of Carson, but I get lock it even more because just with my draft strategy, I'm usually drafting wide receivers in that range over running back. So you know, as good as Metcalf is, Russell Wilson is just so good that he's going to support two receivers.
00:52:11
Speaker 2: There tends to be a very concentrated target share.
00:52:14
Speaker 3: There in Seattle and so, and the better Metcalf is, the more it's just going to open things up for Carson. So excuse me for well, for Carson too, but for a time all everybody. Yeah, right, So I'm not worried about like Metcalf, Oh he's going to have this umongous breakout, because he already did.
00:52:32
Speaker 2: But in Lockett's going to disappear me.
00:52:33
Speaker 3: Last year, you know, it seems like Metcalf went off, and he did. He had thirteen hundred and three yards, but you look at the targets and it was Lockett one thirty two, Metcalf one twenty nine receptions, lock At one hundred Metcalf eighty three. So Lockett was right there, it's not going to be as sexy, but he's still a very good receiver. They both had ten touchdowns and a lot of that is just you know.
00:52:59
Speaker 2: He's had that he's he's had that.
00:53:01
Speaker 3: Experience that with Russell Wilson, and Russell Wilson's gonna look for him anytime Metcalf is covered, and uh, that's what it's gonna be. As far as like investing in the offense, Yeah, I've warmed up to ever a little bit. I think the tight end doesn't isn't usually a huge part of the offense aside from that like Will Disley, those random Will Disley like breakout stretches.
00:53:22
Speaker 2: But uh, I think for a deep sleeper, I don't mind.
00:53:25
Speaker 3: D Eskridge the rookie, because he's he's going essentially for free in that range where you say, okay, like Freddie Swain had think we know barely any production and David Moore as those kind of co number three wide receivers last year, So there's there's a spot for somebody to emerge as that number three target. And you know, evert you're having to pay a little more for him now, whereas eskridgees is free and they could scheme him some looks. So that's that's the guy I actually love targeting a little more.
00:53:58
Speaker 2: Like I don't hate Everett at all.
00:53:59
Speaker 3: It's just Escridge is even freer than Everett and I think has similar upsides, So it's him for me. But yeah, I think definitely an offense that I would not shy away from because they're already super efficient and if they increased the pace, I mean, it could just get silly because it could be like that that that first eight weeks of Russell Wilson last year.
00:54:21
Speaker 2: Like all year long.
00:54:22
Speaker 1: So I would love that.
00:54:23
Speaker 2: Oh my goodness, so that that would be great. Let's close it out with the Rams. The this offense to me, I don't know, like it's like it's not being talked about enough. How good this offense could be.
00:54:36
Speaker 3: Now that Sean McVay has a quarterback that he's comfortable with, because he was already great at scheming up ways for Jared Goff to throw for like forty five hundred yards and be very efficient. But now you got Stafford, you got somewhat of an incentive to pass more. Because Cam Akers went down and you know, even Xavier Jones went down, you have you know, kind of a new running back in Michelle and one that's still a little unproven. And so what are the ceilings you think for like Woods and Cup and Higbee.
00:55:05
Speaker 1: I think they're very high. I've been talking about them. I don't know where you've been.
00:55:09
Speaker 2: But I mean obviously, yes, I mean you know.
00:55:12
Speaker 1: Yeah, but yeah, I love you know, Robert Woods, Cooper Cup in this wide receiver two tier. I love Tyler Lockett as well, like I love this entire tier. But those entire division. Yeah, that the entire division. Brandon Ayuk as well. But yeah, Woods and Cup, like their ceilings glevated a ton with Matthew Stafford. Let me mention these stats one more time this offseason. So last year, the Rams ranked twenty fourth and pass attempts twenty plus yards or more. That should go up. With Matthew Stafford, they ranked thirtieth and pass attempts in the red zone last season and those numbers look even worse than he considered. They had the twelfth most pass attempts. So you know, Jared Goff was holding back their ceilings. Obviously, he boosted their floor because he targeted them so heavily. But you know, Staffer is going to give them so many more of these high value targets, deep targets, end zone targets that you know, these guys have legit wide receiver one potential. So yeah, I love targeting Woods and Cup. And then honestly, you know, guys like d Jacks in a best ball format, you can't go wrong with that. You know, the five games he's gonna play, he's gonna go off, we know that. But even like a guy like Van Jefferson, I think the wide receiver three in this offense now is a thing. Back remember when Jared Goff was really good. We were, you know, playing guys like Brandon Cooks, Cooper Cup and Robert Woods every week. I think we could see an offense like that now. So I love investing in this offense. Tyler Higbee as well. I think he's a low end tight end one. So I think Matthew Stafford just he elevates everybody's ceiling in this offense.
00:56:49
Speaker 3: Yeah, and you get with Woods especially, you get those rush attempts which really enhance his you know, floor ceiling combos. So I actually have Woods and Cup and this might sound surprising, but I have Woods and Cup ranked ahead of Alan Robinson because Wow, I think when you're looking at Robinson, it's gonna have to be a lot of volume driven.
00:57:12
Speaker 2: It's gonna be so volume driven.
00:57:13
Speaker 3: Where Woods and Cup already have the volume anyway, and they have the you know, they have the track record, but their ceilings haven't really been accessed in a way that Matthew Stafford could access them. So I think their high floor, high ceiling plays and like Sean McVay is brilliant, and whereas like Matt Naggy is kind of you know, we've seen, you know, we've seen kind of a little bit of a downturn there.
00:57:37
Speaker 2: I mean, Robinson should be fine.
00:57:39
Speaker 3: I'm just saying, like in terms of ceiling, I think Woods in Cup have a little bit more touchdown upside in this offense. And I just think, you know, they might not have to do it all on short on short stuff now with Stafford, so remember when he had like was it Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, and Kenny Galladay. I think it was for one year and they were all very productive. Like it could be like that, except Deshaun Jackson is not going to be as high volume guys. So I do love him in basketball, but I mean just look at where that's gonna leave Cup and Woods. Those guys could be like big weekend week out producers, and they have already been. I mean, Cooper Cup always finishes in you know, the top fifteen or twenty, you know, eating points for game war or just total production. Same thing for Woods and so I don't really see much downside with them, and I see a whole lot of upside.
00:58:26
Speaker 2: And they usually go after a couple.
00:58:28
Speaker 3: Of guys like you know, like a Robinson, who yeah, he's fine, he's gonna he should get a lot of targets. But you know, the upside might be even with fields at quarterback, like I think, I think I'd still prefer like this Matthew Stafford Sean McVay offense by a lot. So yeah, love love Woods and Cup, and I think those guys are great guys to target in that third fourth round. Just another reason why I'm almost always going receiver in that range. It's just it's hard for me to pass up these guys consistently because they're just such good force ceiling combos. So yeah, Woods, Cup, go draft those guys. You would not be disappointed. And that's uh, yeah, that's gonna do it final rankings when we went through a lot. You guys can check out our final rankings up at Action at network dot com. They're all in our Fantasy tool and uh so yeah, go check it out actionnetwork dot com. Don't forget to also download the award winning Action Network app, and you can follow Sean on Twitter at the Underscore Odds Maker. You can follow me at Chris Raybond, and you can find us at those same handles in the Action app as well. Also, don't forget to rate and review the pod. We're on a new feed so we can give you guys five episodes of weeks during the regular season, so uh definitely subscribe if you haven't already.
00:59:48
Speaker 2: And we got some winners for our contest.
00:59:52
Speaker 3: You know, we promised if you guys rated and reviewed the show, we were gonna give you some free swags. So yeah, so, Sean, we got a cup more winners that we're gonna give some free swag to.
01:00:03
Speaker 2: Who are our lucky winners this week?
01:00:06
Speaker 1: So our winners this week are t Stein seven eight nine and Shane Ohoff.
01:00:13
Speaker 3: All right, te Stein seven eight nine, Shane Ohoff, t Stein seven eight nine, and Shane Ohoff. Congratulations Please contact podcasts at action network dot com to claim your prize as podcasts at Action network dot com. All right, that is gonna do it for us for this episode until next week.
01:00:42
Speaker 2: Let's get this money.
Speaker 1: The most valuable commandity I know of his information.
00:00:04
Speaker 2: Wouldn't you agree A five dollars?
00:00:08
Speaker 1: Just a row a level?
00:00:10
Speaker 2: How many tackle shit?
00:00:11
Speaker 3: One? You're saying that humans need fantasy to make life bearable.
00:00:19
Speaker 2: Humans need fantasy to be human? My goodness, that was good.
00:00:27
Speaker 1: Prose bests relentless refusing to give up. All right, hit that horn, babe.
00:00:33
Speaker 3: Let's let's jump to the NFC and we'll start with Dallas.
00:00:41
Speaker 2: See Lamb or Amari for you?
00:00:43
Speaker 1: This is so tough because I mean, I don't want to get off the CD train. It's been fun. I drafted a shit ton of him when he was wide receiver seventeen, But now that he's wide receiver twelve and Mark Cooper is like wide receiver fifteen, I would prefer Amari because it does look like I'm Marii's healthy, But you know, Lamb's going to have such a big year that you can't go wrong with either. Again, this is one of those things where we're nitpicking. Michael Gallup at wide receiver forty six is probably the best value out of all of them. So that's why I've typically gotten him in most of my drafts, whereas these guys, it depends where your draft slot is, depends who you get in round one or two. But you know, I'm okay having either one of these guys on my teams. Yeah.
00:01:27
Speaker 3: Actually, funny exactly have Gout ranked exactly at wide receiver forty six. But I do agree that he is he's a value given that Dak should be back and this often should be able to support the you know, three wide receivers. So but yeah, for Lamb versus two, per I have Lamb one spot ahead. But yeah, they're essentially tied. But I think they're both top twelve receivers, So I don't think you can go wrong with either one of those guys. Let's go to the Washington football team. Where are you on Curtis Samuel? Because I think I think Gibson's known quantity. Logan Thomas is a known quantity, or at least he's kind of locked into that tight end seven spot. But I think Samuel is a little bit more of a wildcard. You're just given that he's you know, coming over from the Panthers.
00:02:16
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you know, I haven't ranked wide receiver forty seven right now, adp is wide receiver fifty two. I think the market may be underestimating his one to two carries per game that I sneak into my projections. But you know, he's not a guy targeting. This is the range we're shooting for the moon, and he's more of a high four guy. But even in this offense, I don't know if we could say that, Like you said, they have Logan Thomas, they have Terry McLaurin. You know, I don't know how they're gonna use Curtis Samuel in the backfield. They already have Antonio Gibson and J D. McKissick. So it's, you know, his role may be limited, and he's the kind of guy that sort of needs volume to hit in fantasy. So I just don't know if we're going to get that week too week. So I'm off on him, even though I'm a little bit ahead of ADP. Where are you on him? Though?
00:03:03
Speaker 3: Yeah, I haven't met wide receiver fifty one, so I'm pretty much in line with consensus.
00:03:08
Speaker 2: Uh.
00:03:09
Speaker 3: Yeah, he's it's you know, he's there for the taking, but I don't see him being a big air yards guy.
00:03:14
Speaker 2: That's not the best way to use him.
00:03:15
Speaker 3: So he's gonna have to be a big PPR guy, but he's still behind you know, McLaurin, Thomas and probably McKissick even for targets.
00:03:25
Speaker 1: So and he missed, he missed like most of camp right in preseason. So that's not good when you have a you're in a new maybe not a new system for him, but new team with a new quarterback, Like that's not good.
00:03:37
Speaker 3: Yeah, and he has struggle with injuries at times in his career. So yeah, just not a guy that I think is going to be a league winner. So not getting too much of him. Patterson is really the deep sleeper that I like on this team because I have him know right his borderline, you know, top sixty running back, So I think he deserves to be picked just for just for his upside and the fact that he showcased so time.
00:03:58
Speaker 2: Remember this is the.
00:03:58
Speaker 3: Same organization that found you know, Antonio Gibson, a legit, you know, workhorse back in the middle rounds of the draft. So they and they and they kind of you turned the kitsick you know, nobody wanted into a viable threat. So this is a this is a good organization with Ron Rivera at the helm for unearthing these these backs, and he also took Christian McCaffrey. So yeah, this is a pretty good track record here. So don't mind the dart throw on Patterson. Uh, if you're in a deep league of best ball going like extreme zero running back and want to benefit from some some variants or whatever, not so uh that's what I'm doing with with the football team.
00:04:41
Speaker 2: The Eagles.
00:04:43
Speaker 3: It's interesting because they have these guys going in the middle rounds.
00:04:48
Speaker 2: That I don't know.
00:04:50
Speaker 3: It's just tough to go either to feel like amazing about them or feel like too two down on them.
00:04:55
Speaker 2: But I don't know.
00:04:57
Speaker 3: Miles Sanders, Davonte Smith, and Dallas Goddard.
00:05:01
Speaker 2: Who's the best value for you of those two guys.
00:05:04
Speaker 3: I know they are different positions, but that's kind of a point, like, if you're investing in this offense, who's the best value for you.
00:05:11
Speaker 1: I don't love any of them, mainly because Jalen hurts. You know, he robs them of their value because of his rushing ability, his inaccuracy as a passer. So I think Miles Sanders, I'm in line with adp at least, he's a guy that I don't go into drafts wanting to draft him. But if he were to Faull to me at the end of the RB two tier, and you know I was busy taking wide receivers and tight ends in the first few rounds. He's a guy that could be part of my draft plan. DeVante Smith, I think is being drafted a bit too high. And then Dallas Goddter. I mean, I feel like we talked about every pod, but he's a bit risky where he's going. But his ADP has dipped enough to where I think, at you know, tight end twelve, I would consider him. I think he is talented enough, even with zach Ertz still there, to produce value there, especially considering I keep mentioning this tight end two tier is collapsing beneath him, so that's kind of raising his value a little bit. But you know, all these guys, I'm uninterested this. This is an offense where you know, Jalen Hurts is gonna be the fancy asset from this teams.
00:06:17
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree, I Hurts is really the guy it's target. Out of those three guys, it's Smith for me, just because you have like some of that unknown giving you that upside.
00:06:27
Speaker 2: Now, I do agree.
00:06:29
Speaker 3: I think he's being drafted a little too high, but there's a chance for you know the air yard hogging, the target hogging there and in some of the offscript plays, and you know he's kind of competing, you know, wide receiver, he's competing with Jalen Rager and Quez Watkins, so he's gonna be open. And then you know, tight ends, as we talked about, they don't really influence like there there there's only a few tight ends that really draw out that like alpha target share that are gonna change, you know, the wide receivers projection.
00:07:01
Speaker 2: That's a short list.
00:07:02
Speaker 3: It's like Waller and and Kelsey and so yeah, I think I think Smith has some some upside here, but it's hurt. It really hurts their bust for me went investing into this Eagles offense. The Giants another team that, aside from Saquon who we've talked about, probably a little too risky to to be an optimal first second round pick given that everybody has ceiling in that range. But outside of him, another team where everyone's going you know, fifth, sixth round or later, usually gaud A Shepherd Ingram who's a little banged up. Slayton even got the rookie Tony Devontae Booker, the Saquon handcuff, Daniel Jones late round quarterback, any who's the best value outside of Saquon?
00:07:54
Speaker 2: Like, who do you target? If who should? Who would you target if you had to in this offense?
00:08:00
Speaker 1: I mean, it's so crowded that like none of them really, But it leads me to Daniel Jones at QB like twenty nine. For any of these guys to hit, he has to be good. So the answer is Daniel Jones. And I think he still carries that you know, weekly QB one upside, so he's more of a best ball for a target for me. You can get him super late. He's not really a threat to get benched necessarily, so he should play all seventeen games as long as he stays healthy. Out of the pass catchers, I would say Sterling Shepherd is probably the best target. You know, he's sort of under the radar where he could be the target leader in this offense. You know, Kenny Galladay has missed pretty much all of the camp in preseason, so we don't even know if he's healthy. So we've known that strung Shepherd can be you know, a target monster when needed. So I think out of all these guys, it would be Shepherd for me.
00:08:53
Speaker 3: Yeah, Shepherd is the pass catcher I get the most of in drafts. He's great in a full PPR especially. He averaged five point seven catches per game in twenty nineteen, five point five last year.
00:09:05
Speaker 2: That's so that's a lot of catches.
00:09:06
Speaker 3: And that that's you know, with Daniel Jones mostly so I think Shepherd is somewhat of a value, not going to give you much in the touchdown department, but he does get some rushing attempts. Jones I do like at as a late round quarterback, just more so because of the rushing upside, you know, the passing.
00:09:25
Speaker 2: It'll land where it lands.
00:09:26
Speaker 3: But I do have Jones ranked QB twenty, which again you know he usually goes far later than that, So like him.
00:09:34
Speaker 2: And then I am starting.
00:09:35
Speaker 3: To take just a little bit of DeVante Booker because I think it gives you some some interesting like anti fragile nests with you know, every like being down on Saquon. How do you profit off that, Well, you could take the guy that you know will be the RB, you know, be their starter as Saquon goes down and essentially for free and Remember, you know the risks of Saquon apply because he's a first second round pick. Look at a guy like Wayne Gollman, who you could have got for free last year or picked up on waivers. You know, he gave you in the middle of the season, you know RB two high end RB two production. So that's kind of the way I like to invest in this team is go with the guys that you could get for free, Daniel Jones and Booker the NFC North we got the Packers. Robert Tunyan kind of came out of nowhere last year, double digit touchdowns. Where do you have him ranked the midst of this tight end chaos?
00:10:33
Speaker 1: So he's tight end ten ten right now, and honestly, it's it's like a four to eight way tie for this massive, massive tier. So he's tight end ten. But again, you can't go wrong if you take him tight end seven. He's a tight He's a touchdown dependent tight end that should probably score a bunch of touchdowns again this year, So I can't fault you for taking him. He might be a little less consistent than a guy like a Logan Thomas or even to know of fans, So that's why I have him tight end ten. But you know, I'm avoiding the list here to begin with. Like I said, once the top six tight ends are off the board, I'm basically punting until the end of the draft and just take a flyer on whoever's left. But where do you have Tanya Now?
00:11:17
Speaker 3: I have him tighten nine, and I do get some of him because he sometimes falls into that, you know, outside of the top one hundred picks. And he's still on a short list of tight ends that has no ten to fifteen touchdown upside. So I still I don't mind investing in him as long as I don't have to get him above his ADP. I will never take him over a guy like Logan Thomas because Thomas run you know, ran around on ninety percent of the dropbacks and Tanyan was at sixty five percent. So there is a difference there and that opens you up to you know, that touchdown variance if he doesn't, if Rogers regresses or whatnot. But I still think the upside is there, and there it is enough of a ship show that you know, Tanyan should be among the top red zone targets and among the top leaders and touchdowns at the position. So the fact that if you can get him is like one of the last people to take your tight end.
00:12:11
Speaker 2: I don't hate it.
00:12:12
Speaker 3: I'd rather take him than like wait for like now that this cheer has totally deteriorated, like I'd rather take him than than wait on something like a few weeks ago, it was like, Okay, there are some guys I can take if I wait. You know, Evan Ingram, but he's gone, or Smith or he's starting to get hurt or Smith hurt. You know, jack ERT's still interesting to me. But yeah, there's a lot less guys now, I think that.
00:12:39
Speaker 1: Who's your tight end? Ten? Then, like, who do we have?
00:12:42
Speaker 2: I think it's still got her. Let me, let me do what you have.
00:12:45
Speaker 1: So I Logan Thomas and Tyler Higby ranked above Tanya. Do you have any of those guys?
00:12:51
Speaker 2: No fants I have at eight? I believe so.
00:12:54
Speaker 3: Then, but it's neck and neck, and I don't mind taking Tanyan over Fan because I do think you know, Fan, it's year three. Tight End breakouts happen a little more in year three than wide receivers usually year two now, just because they get just how the game is going. But tight end is a little tougher, So I do like the talent there. I think it's a little crowded, but I don't mind taking Tony and just for that touchdown. Just chasing that touchdown upside and he usually get is cheaper than fans.
00:13:20
Speaker 2: So that's really what it comes down to.
00:13:22
Speaker 3: Higbee I think is you know, he's right there, but I think Stafford benefits the receivers a little more than the tight end in that offense. So and I think Titian has more touchdown upside than Higbee.
00:13:34
Speaker 1: So it makes sense.
00:13:36
Speaker 3: Let's go to the talk about the vikings with IRV Smiths. You know swaited to miss time. Where are you ranking Tyra Concline? Now, it looks like Smith's going to be out the entire year. It has like a four to five month timeline on the was it moniscus surgery?
00:13:53
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, they I guess it was between cleaning it up or doing a full repair, and they went the full repair route. So it's unfortunate he'll miss this season, but he should be one hundred percent next year, so we'll get to see him break out.
00:14:06
Speaker 2: Then.
00:14:07
Speaker 1: I have Tyler Conklin tight end twenty seven right now, so he's in that you know, Blake Jarvin, Eric Ebron Hayden Hurst. I have Adam Troutman there too. Tier This is only you know, deeper tight end premium formats where you need to care about him. But he's clearly the tight end one. I'm not too concerned about Chris Hernon. Once they made the trade for Chris Herndon, I fear the worst for Arv Smith. So we'll see. Maybe Herndon has some potential with the change of scenery, but I'm avoiding these guys anyway. I think it's just going to be, you know, probably more targets for Justin Jefferson, Adam Helen, and Dalvin Cook. So outside of those three, I want nothing to with the Vikings. I don't care who the number three wide receiver is. I'm trying to figure out who it's going to be. Don't care. It's it's the three main guys for this team or bust for me.
00:14:54
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean the number three receiver will probably be Emir Smith Marsette. He'll loves a return kicks. I think Osbourne has taken some reps there, but Smith Mark sat is like in a super deep week, he does have some up upside, just because he's been you know, he's playing well, and they could go a lot more three receiver sets without Smith. That's what the That's what Zimmer said. So but yeah, I have conclorin at twenty four. I think he is, you know, a viable in basketball, and he does. He does have some upside because again the Titan has been a big part of this offense, and Herndon is not really a threat for targets even if they're running routes at the same time. So Conkland could factor in, give you some big weeks. Maybe DFS play well on DFS player or something like that. So that's how I kind of attack him. The Bears another team where it's kind of top heavy of Montgomery, you have Alan Robinson. Is there any value on this team outside of them?
00:15:52
Speaker 2: Mooney?
00:15:52
Speaker 1: Maybe well, and justin fields obviously, but we don't need to talk about him. You know, if he starts weak two, he's gonna crush his a. But yeah, Darnell Mooney for me, you know, I keep mentioning this, but he was the tenth most targeted player downfield last year of twenty four targets of twenty plus air yards, but the second worst catchable wall rate. Only six of those are catchable. So you would assume with improved quarterback play, which I think justin Fields will bring. You know, he's he's gonna unlock that deep threat that Mooney has. So I think Mooney, you know, as a high upside wide receiver sort of in that Nico Hardman Elijah Moore range, just one of those guys where you were just taking a flyer and if if he doesn't pan out, he's not going to kill you. He's one of those guys that I'm targeting.
00:16:38
Speaker 3: Yeah, I have him at fifty five, but you know, so in that glut like you said, but I do like his upside.
00:16:43
Speaker 1: I do like to.
00:16:44
Speaker 3: Target him over you know, Curtis Samuel and especially and if it's not a full PPR format, because I think he has some air yard upside that is attractive and he has that year two that year to break out potential here to to crush his ADP of things go if things go right, So like Mooney. But that's yeah, that's about it, not really touching the tight ends committing Graham still, I think too much of a committee to find any any true value there. And then the quarterback way is still not going to be great, so not really too interested in the Bear and the old line should not.
00:17:19
Speaker 2: Be should be pretty bad as well.
00:17:21
Speaker 3: The Lions. DeAndre Swift still goes in the usually in the top fifteen, top twenty, maybe with the ADP phone a little bit, but Jamal Williams usually goes closer to the fortieth running back.
00:17:35
Speaker 2: Who do you think is the better value of those two guys?
00:17:38
Speaker 1: Probably Williams. He's the anti fragile type of back that you mentioned earlier, but he's the kind of guy where, even when Swift is healthy, this could be closer to a fifty to fifty time sure than people are willing to admit, so he might be able to provide some RB three flex value on occasion depending on the game script. We need to see how this kind of works out in the receiving game. But you know, if DeAndre Swift were to miss any time, I think Jamal Williams will be RB two RB three type of back. So that's why I tend to prefer the backup in situations like this. But you mentioned DeAndre Swift, his ADP has been all over the map. If if he goes into the top fifteen, I'm basically not getting him at all, But if he falls to me in the RB twenty range, I'll absolutely take a flyer on him. He should be closer to one hundred percent going in a week one than we thought, you know, a couple of weeks ago, so you know, I think he still has that upside. So he's the guy kind of guy. Where Again, if you're attacking wide receiver tight end early in the draft and he ends up falling to you as a low in RB two, I can get behind that. I think he is talented enough to warrant that. And you know, the Lions are gonna have a ton of trailing game scripts and I think Swift should be the pass catching back. Like I said, We'll see, but I think he'll still be playable in these negative game scripts. So that's why I still think Swift is okay at like RB twenty.
00:19:00
Speaker 3: Yeah, I haven't gotten too much of him. I mean, you have the availability concerns. I do, like, you know, the breakout potential, but it's just tough for me to justify him over guys that project for a much safer Carrie floor, like Carson and Jacobs and James Robinson like Swift only averaged like eight point was it about nine carries per game last year, So we don't know if he's really going to jump. Because they did acquire Jamal Williams, Jamar Jefferson has played well in the preseason the rookie, and then I.
00:19:33
Speaker 2: Think they might even keep a fourth back active.
00:19:36
Speaker 3: God wouldn't is Wabuke or I'm not even trying to pronounce his name, but you know, they have a pretty voted backfield to where they can mix and match and you know, kind of monitor Swift's reps because he they've been there's been a lot of kind of negative negativity surrounding his availability and health from the coaching staff itself.
00:19:55
Speaker 2: So that does raise a little bit of a red flag.
00:19:58
Speaker 3: So in a full PBI, I think it's the best time to you know, kind of maximize the upside. But in happy VR and standard, I've been going to two guys who I just think have safe for Carrie Floores in his ADP range. What about the the receiving core. We love Hockinson, but at wide receiver, I mean somebody has to catch the ball. Here you have aman Ross Saint Brown. The rookie should be kind of a slot guy who could he'll be like top two in terms of routes, kind of maximize it by I usually do it in full PPR team and then Tyroll Williams should be locked into one starting role and then who knows what they're going to do with the other side. They released powerman Cephis Benson they traded for Cephis could factor in kuif Raymond had a good camp.
00:20:40
Speaker 2: Who knows. But will Saint Brown or Tyroll.
00:20:44
Speaker 3: Be viable at all given that there is still some target share up for grabs there or are you staying away? No?
00:20:50
Speaker 1: I think Saint Brown is the guy worth targeting, Like you know, you get them basically for free. He's a better fit with Jared Goff. You know, Tyrell Williams might be the alpha reci that draws the top cornerback every week, and he's not really the playing style that Goff typically target. So I think Saint Brown's going to be sort of the target funnel all up Cooper Cup in the slot. We know Jared Goff's you know, always willing to target as a slot receiver. But at the end of the day, like you already mentioned TJ. Howkinson as my boy, I think, you know at tight end six. He's really my perfect draft strategy is getting TJ. Hawkinson at tight end six. He ultimately will be the number one target in this offense. I don't even think they have a backup tight end right now. So yeah, so he's the number one target. But after that, I think I'm on Saint Brown out of the slot will be the number two target in this offense.
00:21:41
Speaker 3: Yeah, Hockinson has like one hundred catch up side on his high range of outcomes, which you can't say for any of the receivers.
00:21:47
Speaker 2: So love Hockinson. I think Saint Brown.
00:21:50
Speaker 3: You maximize him by doing it in full PPR because I don't expect this team to throw a lot of touchdowns, and I expect Saint Brown to have a low which you have to target, which is you know, it is good because it helps you get, you know, receptions, but I don't think the touchdowns will be there, and I don't know that the yardage will be there, just given that you have Jared Goffick quarterback too, So.
00:22:13
Speaker 1: Yeah, probably he probably won't give you a Justin Jefferson type rookie season, but yeah, just like a sixty catch nice little PPR season In deeper leags for sure.
00:22:23
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the ceiling is like Cooper Cupp who you know, played well with Jared Goff his rookie year, but obviously that was a Sean McVay offense. This is an Anthony win offense. So I mean maybe keenan Allen role, who knows. But there's some upside there is what I'm saying. But next up here on the Fantasy Flex is an all new segment that we've been doing called Elite Entries, where Sean and I dive into the Prize Picks app and compare our player projections to the props and.
00:22:50
Speaker 2: Build some entries. For listeners unfamiliar with Prize Picks, it's a super simple way to play DFS.
00:22:57
Speaker 3: Prize Picks offers a bunch of fantasy and over undermarkets for both daily and season long like Zeke Elliott rushing yards for the season or Josh Allen Week one Fantasy points. You choose the picks you like and you build your entry.
00:23:13
Speaker 2: You can go two, three, four, or even.
00:23:15
Speaker 3: Five picks, and your payout is based on how big your lineup is and how.
00:23:19
Speaker 2: Much you risk.
00:23:20
Speaker 3: For example, if you choose two props like Zeke under and Josh Allen over and they both hit you get three times er entry feed, but if you build an entry with four props, you can win up to ten times your entry fee. So Sean and I like use our projections who identify markets we like in the prize picks app and we're gonna look at three today.
00:23:42
Speaker 2: Sean, what is your first prize pick?
00:23:46
Speaker 1: So hopefully you listen to my advice a couple of weeks ago and built some entries around Gus Edwards over six hundred rushing yards. It is now up to eight hundred and fifty and a half rushing yards due to JK. Dobbins season I Andrey I still think this is too low. I'm projecting him post to one thousand yards, so I would actually pick this up to about nine to twenty five rushing yards. So I still think we still we have some value here at eight fifty So I love the over yep.
00:24:14
Speaker 3: I have Gus Edwards over nine hundred yards in my model as well, so I like that one. For mine, I'm going with gets running back Michael Carter over five seventy five and a half rushing yards. Again, I think there's been some pessimism after it was a backfield committee in the preseason, and well, I do think the other backs will mix in. The cream always rises to the top, and that cream is Carter. He's great in the past game, he's great in the run game, and this.
00:24:47
Speaker 2: Is a really low bar to clear.
00:24:49
Speaker 3: So I have him well over six hundred rushing yards on the season, and that's a pretty conservative projection. So I love the over five to seventy five and a half. Who's your final prize pick entry for this week's shop?
00:25:03
Speaker 1: So I'm diving into the Week one pool here. I just came out with my initial Week one projections, so I'm going with the Justin Herbert under two hundred and seventy four and a half passing yards Week one. They're at Washington, so this is gonna be a really tough test to begin this season. He's on our new system under new offensive quarter Joe Lombardi, so you know he might take a couple of weeks to kind of get some the system, really get going. This is a really tough test week one, and Justin Herbert benefited his rookie season not having to play away games in front of you know, maximum capacity crowd, so you know, maybe he's a little rattled week one when they have a full crowd there. So I love the under here. I'm projecting this culture to two sixty soul. I would pick this down to about two seven ors.
00:25:50
Speaker 3: So yeah, I like that Herbert call Washington is a tough defense to move the ball against.
00:25:57
Speaker 2: So like that one as well.
00:25:58
Speaker 3: And that's going to do it for our elite entry for today again, we're going with Gus Edwards over eight hundred and fifty and a half rushing yards for the season, Michael Carter over five hundred seventy five and a half rushing yards for the season, and Justin Herbert under two hundred and seventy four and a half passing.
00:26:19
Speaker 2: Yards in week one. As a reminder, Prize Picks markets do move.
00:26:25
Speaker 3: So you want to be nimble to lock in those numbers before they.
00:26:31
Speaker 2: Are on the move.
00:26:32
Speaker 3: If you haven't created a prize Picks account yet, check out the link in our episode description.
00:26:37
Speaker 2: They will match.
00:26:38
Speaker 3: Your first deposit up to one hundred dollars. Or visit prize picks dot com and use the promo code Action ten. That's Action one zero at prizepicks dot com. Okay, back to the fantasy flex the NFC South, we have the Bucks, we have of Evans and Godwin going pretty high in the top twenty receivers, there's no question about that. But this is a great offense. Tom Brady at the Helm good Old line. So among these middle round guys, who do you like as the best value Antonio Brown, Ronald Jones, or Leonard Fournette.
00:27:23
Speaker 1: Let me just start off by saying it's not Ronald Jones, so he's number three for me, and then it's probably a toss up, honestly between Leonard Fournette, who I don't get. He's not a running back I seek out and drafts. But at RB thirty six, you could do worse. You know, maybe we see playoff money all season, who knows, but he's the only back in this offense that can kind of dominate the rushing work and receiving work if either Ronald Jones or Joe Bernard were at a miss time. But you know, Antonio Brown, I think he's one of those players where I have a ranked forty fifth, but I'd probably draft him much earlier. So his ADP at thirty five does sound about I think that's you know, that's sort of his ceiling honestly if everybody says healthy. But he's probably the guy with the most upside out of these three, so I would target him if I mean, imagine if either Mike Evans or Chris Godden were to go down. I mean, he has wide receiver two upside for sure, So he's one of those guys at that point in the draft, I am, okay kind of reaching for that ceiling. So I would probably lean Antonio Brown out of these three.
00:28:25
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm an ad at forty two, but I agree.
00:28:27
Speaker 3: I mean, he say, I believe he averaged the most catches per game once they acquired him out of all of them, so you know, he just his he was getting targeted on those like little gimme short routes, so it wasn't it's not the same as it was in Pittsburgh necessarily, but he's still Antonio Brown. He's still a guy who could be a high volume receiver. So yeah, it's it's him for me. I'm you know, I don't hate Ronald Jones as much as I did earlier because and I do end up getting him sometimes because when you look at the Bucks schedule, I mean they just have a very very favorable schedule, So there could be a scenario where, especially given how good the defense is and how you know that, the fact that you have a quarterback that's gonna convert on third down and get you up and down the field, the running backs could be valuable, very valuable on this team, even though it is a committee. I mean there's a lot of offenses these days with committees. So Ronald Jones has that double digit touchdown upside. I still think uh and Fournette I think gets dinged a little more because even though he got the receiving usage last year, I think that's why they went out and got Bernard because they don't like Fournette's not really a great receiver. It's just you know, when you have Tom Brady and everyone else is going deep, you're gonna you're gonna get some catches. But I think I think he's I do agree that he has that like due threat capability, but I think the plan is to reduce his role, whereas Jones role because he didn't ever rely on receiving usage in the first place. I think he kind of maintains the same role. So I think I actually like Jones more than fort have. Jones thirty two and for Nett's thirty nine in Happy People.
00:30:03
Speaker 1: That's fair, And I was going to mention, you know, Ronald Jones is too one dimensional, but you know, the Buccaneers should provide plenty of Ronald Jones game script. So you know, I do like him that regard, but I think Fournett definitely has a higher ceiling, and again in this range at running back, that's kind of what I'm going for.
00:30:21
Speaker 3: All right, let's go to the Falcons. Where are you ending up on Mike Davis?
00:30:28
Speaker 1: I mean I like Mike Davis. He's RB twenty two right now. He really doesn't have much depth behind him. I know that they're talking about using Quadria Olison and Cordell Patterson as sort of a running back by committee, but this could be a pretty run heavy offense under Arthur Smith. So you know, I do like Mike Davis. Unfortunately, he does sort of fit the definition of a frozen pond running back because although he's the number of the week one starter, I mean, he's not a lot to hang on to all season. He's you know, he's been a journeyman his entire career. He had the breakout season last year when CMC went down, but you know, anything can happened in this backfield. The one thing going for him, like I said, is the depth chart behind him is pretty weak, but there is still some uncertainty there. So having said that, he I urge a little bit of caution drafting him at running back twenty two. But that's that's where my projections having.
00:31:21
Speaker 3: Ranked, Yeah, I have to have him RB nineteen, so I'm a little easy. Yeah, I think I'm a little higher on consensus. And I don't mind him at all because, yeah, number one, the backfield is pretty weak depth wise, but number two I read a quote from Arthur Blank, the Owner, and you know, I love, I love kind of getting inside these organizations heads cause I think that's where the edge is not and like who's making who's catching the ball at camp or this or that it is going to be all puff pieces. But sometimes you can find an edge just understanding what the organization is thinking. And you know, I think the question was asked of him, like why did you go with an offensive guy in Arthur Smith after he had all these defensive guys Dan Quinn and whatnot. And he he was like, you know, we need to like run the ball, and well that is not maybe that's not the best thing from a you know, football analytics standpoint. Uh, he's the owner, and that's there's gonna be an emphasis on running the ball. So I totally agree. I think this offense could look completely different. Remember, Arthur Smith is the king of running the ship out of the ball. Obviously he had Derrick Henry, but uh, you know that's what he's done, and and he's made a passing game effective by doing it. But uh, the running back has been very valuable in his offenses. And you know, the owner is saying like, hey, you know when we were good and we were winning, you know we had a run game. We would run efficiently, and uh that would help our defense, which we know isn't that great and it's going to take some time to rebuild. So I think this is a team that's fully going to try to implement that Tennessee strategy to some degree. Uh. And remember the Falcons have been like the past heaviest team the last couple of years in the league. I mean it was you know, they were in the mid sixth fifties in past attempts every year. So we could see a dramatically different offense, and it's just hard, you know, even because I do have you know, I'm projecting Davis for only about fifty on the season, only about fifty five percent of the total running back carries, you know, after counting in the miss games.
00:33:21
Speaker 2: But I still have him up pretty high. It's going to be hard.
00:33:24
Speaker 3: Allison's not really a threat to run too many routes out of the backfield. And then Patterson he's you know, he's not even a true he's like a running back wide receiver hybrid. So Davis should be on the field for a lot of pass naps and they should put an emphasis on running the ball.
00:33:38
Speaker 2: So I think, you know, I'm fine with him.
00:33:40
Speaker 3: Again, this is I think this is just a better RB two tier than than the year's pass And I like Davis a lot more than a guy like Todd Gurley, and Todd Gurley even was fine last year.
00:33:48
Speaker 2: So yeah, he got benched.
00:33:52
Speaker 1: Yeah, Davis is twenty years old, but he doesn't have that much tread on his tires. You know, he has four hundred and twelve career carries, so he might be a little bit fresher than your average twenty eight year old running back. So that that's certainly going in his favor. And obviously he's no Derrick Henry, we know that, but he does at least have that pass catching up side that Henry doesn't really have, so I could see how he would just thrive in this Arthur Smith offense.
00:34:16
Speaker 3: Yeah, he plays hard, He'll get you some yards after the contact. Probably not going to be a high yard per carry guy all things considered, But yeah, I'm a little higher on him.
00:34:25
Speaker 2: I don't mind.
00:34:26
Speaker 3: I don't mind getting him especially, you know Waight fifth thirly six if you need that that second running back.
00:34:30
Speaker 1: Or didn't he have the highest broken tackle rate of qualified running backs last year? I think that I might need to double check that, but pretty sure.
00:34:41
Speaker 2: I can check right now.
00:34:42
Speaker 3: Let's see, I do know, I do see that he's He was seventh on the year in in miss tackles forced in PFF and pretty much every running back on that list had more carries than him on the top six, so he should be up there.
00:34:57
Speaker 2: Yeah, he should be up there.
00:34:59
Speaker 3: He averaged three yards after contact, which is very good. So yeah, I think he's a I think he's a solid pick here. Not down on him at all, just given a situation for Carolina. I think we love Harris Marshall, especially David Moore being released, but.
00:35:20
Speaker 2: We also love Robbie Anderson.
00:35:22
Speaker 3: And then DJ Moore has put up too straight eleven hundred yard plus yard seasons, and there's also Christian McCaffrey, and there's also Dan Arnold should be more involved than Ian Thomas last year. So I guess my concern is, like, how likely are we to get a bust or two out of this Carolina pass catching unit given that we still have Sam Donald that quarterback, Like how many pass catchers can Sam Donald truly support?
00:35:47
Speaker 1: Yeah, probably not more than two or three, right, and you know CMC will probably be an every week hit. So that leaves, yeah, like one or two receivers after that. So I'm very worried that, you know, like a DJ Moore or Robbie Anderson could be inconsistent. So that's why you know DJ Moore at I think he's wide receiver eighteen now kind of scares me. I don't like to overspend an offense like this where you made a great point like this is a Sam Darnold offense, So I would say Dj Moore, I'd be cautious about that and I do like a guy like Terrence Marshall way later because you can get him, you know, super cheap. He might be the odd man out most weeks, but he will have weeks you know, where he scores a touchdown or he's heavily evolved. So he's a guy that can also kind of impact DJ Moore and Robbie Anderson negatively. So this is a very uh, this is offense they have to be careful about. They were able to support three receivers last year with Teddy Bridgewater, but you know, Christ McCaffery is out for most of the season, so that might be why. So that I'd be very careful. And the thing I've been doing is just not drafting Dj Moore at wide receiver eighteen because of the you know, the lower flour of this offense will have week to week.
00:36:58
Speaker 3: Yeah, he's he's my wide receiver twenty five.
00:37:01
Speaker 2: So whoa yeah in.
00:37:03
Speaker 3: That And that's because you know, I still have Anderson at thirty two and h and Marshall. You know, even though I haven't projected for about uh, you know, close to eighty percent of the routes per game like Samuel Ran last year, He's still my wide receiver, uh seventy because he just you know, the they're just there's just only so many targets to go around, and we don't know. We can't just project like a huge, huge change in efficiency for Donald, like I do have him better than he was in his Jets days Teddy Bridgewater average I think it was seven point six yards per attempt. So the receivers will definitely help Donald, but you also have to account for the fact that you know, Dan Arnold should comand a bigger target share than Thomas who was essentially running routes and nothing was happening when he ran those routes. So yeah, uh there, Yeah, it's just a it's just a numbers game where in West here, but we a huge believer in Donald taking a big step. I think there's gonna be at least some inconsistency. Even if these guys kind of hit their overall marks by the end of the season, you may not know exactly when to bench or start.
00:38:08
Speaker 2: Some of them. So uh, it's it's it's weird.
00:38:12
Speaker 3: It's a weird offense where it's like, I'm not too excited about it. I've been getting some Robbie when he was going real eight. But now it really depends on the on the on the league. Sometimes he goes in line with my projection of wide receiver thirty two. Sometimes you can still get him later, so yeah, it's about it.
00:38:28
Speaker 1: It's also unlikely that all these players stay healthy for all seventeen games, so I think the weeks where one or two of these players are out, the rest will benefit. But that's why you don't want to invest in like needing players to get hurt or miss time for a guy to hit. But that's that's where the upside for a guy like Marshall comes into play. Is if either DJ Moore or Robbie and Erson missed time, I think he does have that wide receiver three upside. But other than that, when they're all healthy, super low floor for everybody.
00:38:55
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I think you're right about more because it's just he's the guy that's still going in that premium range where he might have already hit his ceiling, you know, eleven hundred plus yards and back to back years, Like, there's not much higher he can go just given all of the guys around him and then the balance around him. But he's going in that range where you want that like wide receiver one overall upside still that I just don't know if More truly gives you that.
00:39:20
Speaker 2: Even though he's been he's been great and he's a great receiver, he.
00:39:23
Speaker 3: Might have from a numbers perspective, he might have topped out with the yardage these last couple.
00:39:28
Speaker 2: Of seasons the Saints.
00:39:30
Speaker 3: Who's the top value for you outside of Alvin Kamara, Marcus Cowaway? Is it Michael Thomas, Troutman, tray Kwon, Latavius.
00:39:40
Speaker 2: Who do you like? Who you targeting the most? Outside of Alvin Kamara?
00:39:45
Speaker 1: It's probably Latavious. He's always the anti fragile back I like to get sort of in that RB forty five to RB fifty range. I know there was some concern that he might be leaped fragged by Tony Jones. That doesn't appear to be the case, so I still think he's safe in the RB forty five range. Other than that, these guys aren't really guys. I'm targeting Marcuz Callaway. I do like him, but you know his ADP's wide receiver forty four. Now that's pretty rich, especially when the factor in that you know Michael Thomas should return at some point, So I think Callaway's value's only going to go down. Like when it comes to the fantasy playffs are going to be starting Kelly probably not. You know, Taysom Hill could take over any time. I think once that happens, you're not gonna like Callaway as much. So I think, you know, of all the preseason overreactions, I think Callaway being you know, wide receiver forty four might be one of them. Unfortunately, but outside of Kamara, this is an offense I'm basically staying away from now other than Latavius Murray is at a high upside backup.
00:40:53
Speaker 3: Actually, well, Callaway, I think I think I think we should still be drafting him because number one, he's going to start the season. Well, you know, you still have Winston, you have Thomas out, So if you can get you know, a guy in that range who gives you, I think legit like wide receiver two upside, it should like he should be a target hog every week.
00:41:12
Speaker 2: You know, all these weeks that Thomas.
00:41:14
Speaker 3: Is out, and when you look at like the rest of the Saints, you know you have Kamara there. With Thomas out, there's really no other guy that's going to command targets. You know, like trout Win is a very was a very low like target per out run guy. Trey Quon Smith's ridiculously low and calways.
00:41:33
Speaker 2: Like he should be right there.
00:41:34
Speaker 3: And then when Thomas gets back, I think you're going to see a few more like it's gonna be a little bit of a higher volume pass offense, and you know, the all the defensive attention is going to be on Camara and Thomas. So I think Callaways still can have you know, decent weeks even then.
00:41:51
Speaker 2: So I still like him going.
00:41:53
Speaker 3: Here because I just and just based on how well he like, you know, how well he's played. Because the Saints are another team that they tend to unearth these receivers, like they Colston, Willie Sneid. You know, They've had a lot of productive guys that coming into this season, or at least their first seasons really being in a prominent role, people kind of wrote off and then look they look back and it's like, oh, this guy was really productive. So I like Cowawi. I still like Cowi. He's the guy Murray I do get. But you know, just because of you know, there's been some skepticism and he is getting a little older, Like I'm not as excited as I was maybe like one two years ago about it. I still think if Kamara goes down, he leads the way and he gives you that running back one upside. But he is also a guy that could kind of fall off a cliff, and I mean maybe he does at some point get leap frog too.
00:42:42
Speaker 1: So do you have week one projections or rankings by any chance?
00:42:46
Speaker 2: I haven't. I haven't started that yet.
00:42:49
Speaker 1: Yeah, I have to callaway wide receiver thirty one. I was curious where you have him, But I do agree that he will get off to a fast start. But I like having really strong receivers, so I prefer for having like a Jerry Judy as my wide receiver three, not Calloway. But certainly if you're in a situation where you know you tag running back early on or tight end and Callowy is your wide receiver three to begin the year, I won't you know, slam me for that, but I just think that his value will only go down as the ear goes on. Unfortunately.
00:43:18
Speaker 2: Yeah, well we can go to.
00:43:19
Speaker 3: The wid receaver forty four and sometimes later than that and like more casual league. So yeah, you know, like we're in any sharp drafts where exactly, Yeah, he goes like wide receivers thirty five, and like I wouldn't, I don't need to start him as my wide receiver three. And like you said, you have him ranked inside the wide receiver three ranks already in Week one, even in a tough matchup against that Again, he's was it Green Bay, right.
00:43:42
Speaker 1: Yeah, That's why he's tricky to discuss, because again, if you're if you're stashing him on your bench, you know you're kind of losing that value. He's going to hit the ground running week one, So it sort of depends on your format. But certainly, if you can get him outside of the wide receiver fifty range, he's obviously worth it. There's just like I think I'd rather take a guy like Will Fuller honestly in that range. Maybe, oh, Michael Gallup in that range, But other than that, I think, yeah, if you can get around why I was here for forty five and Michael Gallop and Will Fuller or off the board, I can certainly get behind that.
00:44:16
Speaker 3: All right, Let's go to the West and we'll finish it out with the Rams and the Niners and the Seahawks's start with the Cardinals Chase Edmunds and James Connor.
00:44:29
Speaker 2: Edmunds usually goes right around.
00:44:32
Speaker 3: The mid twenties and running back ADP maybe the low twenties. Connor usually about ten spots lower than that, maybe in the outside definitely usually outside the top one hundred picks in that running back thirty five to forty range.
00:44:47
Speaker 2: Who's the better value for you at ADP?
00:44:51
Speaker 1: I would say Edmunds probably has the higher ceiling, so he's probably the better value. But honestly, both running backs sort of offer some value ADP because I think even if both stay healthy, they should be able to kind of upproduce as ADP. And if either one goes down, I mean, you know, they're gonna be pretty legit RB twos. But you know it depends if James Connor inherits like the full Kenyon Drake role. I mean, Edmunds was still able to put up RB twenty eight numbers even with Kenny on Drake there. So I think Edmunds is probably the guy for me, because you know, he just has that massive upset. I think he could be like a legit RB two if Connor were to go down. But even if Connor is healthy, he still has his defined role where he's a you know RB three kind of flex guy, more valuable in PPR format. So I'd say, out of these two Edmunds.
00:45:43
Speaker 2: For me, yeah, I like both, Like I don't. I like because Edmunds.
00:45:49
Speaker 3: I have him, you know, RB twenty four in full PPR, and I think he has upside for even more than that.
00:45:54
Speaker 2: But Connor is also.
00:45:56
Speaker 3: Right there is like a fringe top thirty guy for me just because there Arizona almost never splits the carries three ways. So yeah, if Edmunds gets hurt, I think Connor will be like a twenty carry per game guy. If Connor gets hurt, I think Edmunds will be like a twenty carry per game guy. And even if they're splitting work, you know Edmunds with his receiving usage and he'll probably get like, you know, eight to ten carries, and then there's still probably double digit carries on the table for Connor with a catch, with a couple catches here and there, and you do have that Kenyan Drake upside. And even though Kenyan Drake people were down on him last year once you know, as the season kind of progressed, he was.
00:46:33
Speaker 2: Still like a top twenty back or fourteen.
00:46:37
Speaker 3: Right, Yeah, so Kenny like, even though it wasn't maybe impressive week in week out, it was kind of ugly, Kenny Drake still got it done and there these carries have to go somewhere.
00:46:47
Speaker 2: And this is also one of the fastest paced teams.
00:46:50
Speaker 3: So Arizona was number one in Football Outsiders situation adjusted pace at twenty seven point one seconds between plays. So that that just gives even more upside in a higher floor to the to this backfield. That should be that, it should be all, that should be all. You see, it's just those two guys, you know, when when one went down Edmunds got all the the other got all the carries last year.
00:47:18
Speaker 2: So like both of those guys at their ADP.
00:47:23
Speaker 3: For the forty nine ers, we have maybe a similar situation, but they're just a more crowded backfield. You have Trace Sermon the rookie, and you have Raheem Mostert, the incumbent starter.
00:47:35
Speaker 2: Mostert has you know, he's a.
00:47:37
Speaker 3: Talented guy, but never really held up over like a full season with a big workload. So where are you on those two guys in terms of value at ADP.
00:47:48
Speaker 2: Sermon usually goes a little higher than most are.
00:47:50
Speaker 1: This is a similar situation where I think both are worth drafting. You know, I think most are will hit the grout running. So if you're in a situation where you need a guy to start right away, most it's your guy. Week one rankings, I have him RB twenty one. They're they're against the Lions. I think he's gonna have a good game to start the season, and I have Sermon RB thirty four. But I think as the season goes on, Sermon's gonna catch up ground and eventually overtake him. And certainly, you know, Mozart hasn't been the healthiest back. He's had his injury issues, so he could end up missing time and then Sermon has you know, RB one, RB two sort of upside, they just cut Wayne Goleman, so that kind of clears up this RB three role. So I think both backs. Honestly, the forty nine ers are always a situation I'm trying to invest in. So you can make a case where you know, if you go zero RB and you need a running back to in this range, take Rahiem Moser because you can start him the first handful of games, or maybe maybe even the whole season. We'll see. But then Sermon's the kind of guy I like to have my bench where I think he's gonna peak come fantasy, you know, playoff time. He'll have games where he starts. So I think Sermon's probably the better long term investment. But I can get behind either one of these backs.
00:49:02
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean when the offseason started, I was kind of anti drafting San Francisco Backs period because it was there, was Goldman was still there. There are just a lot of certainty, you know, Mitchell hasty. But now it's cleared up a little bit because you know, Goldman got cut, Wilson's going to be out, you know, to start the year, and then Mitchell's been hurt as well, so you know, he just is getting back into the flow of things. So I think it's gonna be somewhat similar to the Denver situation, where you have a good defense, you know, you have a good running situation, and these two guys should dominate the work. Now I think there is a little bit lower of a floor both of them, just because you do have some other backs still there and Shanahan's been known to kind of mix it up. But so I like the Denver backs more like Gordon, rather Gordon in place of Moster, you know at adp or or Williams in place of Sermon.
00:49:53
Speaker 2: But uh yeah, I don't hate these guys anymore.
00:49:56
Speaker 3: They're just both kind of mid range RB three he's with with high end you know, RB two upside, So don't hate him as much as I did coming in. But I've been getting more of the Denver backfield in my in my own drafts for Seattle, and you know, we know, we know they might.
00:50:15
Speaker 2: Increase the pace.
00:50:16
Speaker 3: We know, Russell Wilson, Chris Carson and then metcalfin Lockett. That's the big four. There's not much to say about those guys. You're happy if you get any of those guys wherever they're going. But given that, you know Wilson is very efficient and there's could be a higher paced team than we've seen in years past. Is there any other way to invest in this offense? Do you think outside of those big four? Like I've seen Gerald Everett start to creep into the top one fifty in some in some spots, is he would he be the guy you target or are you just kind of staying away or somebody else?
00:50:48
Speaker 1: No, I think Everett is an interesting flyer, especially again this tight end two tiers getting decimated, so he's all the way up to tight end seventeen for me. So he's a He's a good way invest in this offense. He could end up being the number three target. You know, he's already familiar with offensive corner Shane Waldron from their time here in LA with the Rams, so I think he could be an interesting flyer. And you know, being the number three target and a Russell Wilson led offense, you can't go wrong with that. So I think out of all those guys, I think Everett would be the best way to invest in this offense cheaply. But again, I've mentioned it before in this pod that Chris Carson is definitely my most targeted Seahawks. I get him consistently at the end of the RB two tier. I think he's just a lock for the workhorse role. The only downside with Chris Carson, though, is he tends to be a violent runner and take big hits, so he's usually going to miss the game or two every year. But if facted that in already, and he's my running back fourteen. But Chris Carson, I think is the best Bank Feter Buck player on the Seahawks.
00:51:53
Speaker 3: I actually, for me, I get locked even more, and I get a lot of Carson, but I get lock it even more because just with my draft strategy, I'm usually drafting wide receivers in that range over running back. So you know, as good as Metcalf is, Russell Wilson is just so good that he's going to support two receivers.
00:52:11
Speaker 2: There tends to be a very concentrated target share.
00:52:14
Speaker 3: There in Seattle and so, and the better Metcalf is, the more it's just going to open things up for Carson. So excuse me for well, for Carson too, but for a time all everybody. Yeah, right, So I'm not worried about like Metcalf, Oh he's going to have this umongous breakout, because he already did.
00:52:32
Speaker 2: But in Lockett's going to disappear me.
00:52:33
Speaker 3: Last year, you know, it seems like Metcalf went off, and he did. He had thirteen hundred and three yards, but you look at the targets and it was Lockett one thirty two, Metcalf one twenty nine receptions, lock At one hundred Metcalf eighty three. So Lockett was right there, it's not going to be as sexy, but he's still a very good receiver. They both had ten touchdowns and a lot of that is just you know.
00:52:59
Speaker 2: He's had that he's he's had that.
00:53:01
Speaker 3: Experience that with Russell Wilson, and Russell Wilson's gonna look for him anytime Metcalf is covered, and uh, that's what it's gonna be. As far as like investing in the offense, Yeah, I've warmed up to ever a little bit. I think the tight end doesn't isn't usually a huge part of the offense aside from that like Will Disley, those random Will Disley like breakout stretches.
00:53:22
Speaker 2: But uh, I think for a deep sleeper, I don't mind.
00:53:25
Speaker 3: D Eskridge the rookie, because he's he's going essentially for free in that range where you say, okay, like Freddie Swain had think we know barely any production and David Moore as those kind of co number three wide receivers last year, So there's there's a spot for somebody to emerge as that number three target. And you know, evert you're having to pay a little more for him now, whereas eskridgees is free and they could scheme him some looks. So that's that's the guy I actually love targeting a little more.
00:53:58
Speaker 2: Like I don't hate Everett at all.
00:53:59
Speaker 3: It's just Escridge is even freer than Everett and I think has similar upsides, So it's him for me. But yeah, I think definitely an offense that I would not shy away from because they're already super efficient and if they increased the pace, I mean, it could just get silly because it could be like that that that first eight weeks of Russell Wilson last year.
00:54:21
Speaker 2: Like all year long.
00:54:22
Speaker 1: So I would love that.
00:54:23
Speaker 2: Oh my goodness, so that that would be great. Let's close it out with the Rams. The this offense to me, I don't know, like it's like it's not being talked about enough. How good this offense could be.
00:54:36
Speaker 3: Now that Sean McVay has a quarterback that he's comfortable with, because he was already great at scheming up ways for Jared Goff to throw for like forty five hundred yards and be very efficient. But now you got Stafford, you got somewhat of an incentive to pass more. Because Cam Akers went down and you know, even Xavier Jones went down, you have you know, kind of a new running back in Michelle and one that's still a little unproven. And so what are the ceilings you think for like Woods and Cup and Higbee.
00:55:05
Speaker 1: I think they're very high. I've been talking about them. I don't know where you've been.
00:55:09
Speaker 2: But I mean obviously, yes, I mean you know.
00:55:12
Speaker 1: Yeah, but yeah, I love you know, Robert Woods, Cooper Cup in this wide receiver two tier. I love Tyler Lockett as well, like I love this entire tier. But those entire division. Yeah, that the entire division. Brandon Ayuk as well. But yeah, Woods and Cup, like their ceilings glevated a ton with Matthew Stafford. Let me mention these stats one more time this offseason. So last year, the Rams ranked twenty fourth and pass attempts twenty plus yards or more. That should go up. With Matthew Stafford, they ranked thirtieth and pass attempts in the red zone last season and those numbers look even worse than he considered. They had the twelfth most pass attempts. So you know, Jared Goff was holding back their ceilings. Obviously, he boosted their floor because he targeted them so heavily. But you know, Staffer is going to give them so many more of these high value targets, deep targets, end zone targets that you know, these guys have legit wide receiver one potential. So yeah, I love targeting Woods and Cup. And then honestly, you know, guys like d Jacks in a best ball format, you can't go wrong with that. You know, the five games he's gonna play, he's gonna go off, we know that. But even like a guy like Van Jefferson, I think the wide receiver three in this offense now is a thing. Back remember when Jared Goff was really good. We were, you know, playing guys like Brandon Cooks, Cooper Cup and Robert Woods every week. I think we could see an offense like that now. So I love investing in this offense. Tyler Higbee as well. I think he's a low end tight end one. So I think Matthew Stafford just he elevates everybody's ceiling in this offense.
00:56:49
Speaker 3: Yeah, and you get with Woods especially, you get those rush attempts which really enhance his you know, floor ceiling combos. So I actually have Woods and Cup and this might sound surprising, but I have Woods and Cup ranked ahead of Alan Robinson because Wow, I think when you're looking at Robinson, it's gonna have to be a lot of volume driven.
00:57:12
Speaker 2: It's gonna be so volume driven.
00:57:13
Speaker 3: Where Woods and Cup already have the volume anyway, and they have the you know, they have the track record, but their ceilings haven't really been accessed in a way that Matthew Stafford could access them. So I think their high floor, high ceiling plays and like Sean McVay is brilliant, and whereas like Matt Naggy is kind of you know, we've seen, you know, we've seen kind of a little bit of a downturn there.
00:57:37
Speaker 2: I mean, Robinson should be fine.
00:57:39
Speaker 3: I'm just saying, like in terms of ceiling, I think Woods in Cup have a little bit more touchdown upside in this offense. And I just think, you know, they might not have to do it all on short on short stuff now with Stafford, so remember when he had like was it Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, and Kenny Galladay. I think it was for one year and they were all very productive. Like it could be like that, except Deshaun Jackson is not going to be as high volume guys. So I do love him in basketball, but I mean just look at where that's gonna leave Cup and Woods. Those guys could be like big weekend week out producers, and they have already been. I mean, Cooper Cup always finishes in you know, the top fifteen or twenty, you know, eating points for game war or just total production. Same thing for Woods and so I don't really see much downside with them, and I see a whole lot of upside.
00:58:26
Speaker 2: And they usually go after a couple.
00:58:28
Speaker 3: Of guys like you know, like a Robinson, who yeah, he's fine, he's gonna he should get a lot of targets. But you know, the upside might be even with fields at quarterback, like I think, I think I'd still prefer like this Matthew Stafford Sean McVay offense by a lot. So yeah, love love Woods and Cup, and I think those guys are great guys to target in that third fourth round. Just another reason why I'm almost always going receiver in that range. It's just it's hard for me to pass up these guys consistently because they're just such good force ceiling combos. So yeah, Woods, Cup, go draft those guys. You would not be disappointed. And that's uh, yeah, that's gonna do it final rankings when we went through a lot. You guys can check out our final rankings up at Action at network dot com. They're all in our Fantasy tool and uh so yeah, go check it out actionnetwork dot com. Don't forget to also download the award winning Action Network app, and you can follow Sean on Twitter at the Underscore Odds Maker. You can follow me at Chris Raybond, and you can find us at those same handles in the Action app as well. Also, don't forget to rate and review the pod. We're on a new feed so we can give you guys five episodes of weeks during the regular season, so uh definitely subscribe if you haven't already.
00:59:48
Speaker 2: And we got some winners for our contest.
00:59:52
Speaker 3: You know, we promised if you guys rated and reviewed the show, we were gonna give you some free swags. So yeah, so, Sean, we got a cup more winners that we're gonna give some free swag to.
01:00:03
Speaker 2: Who are our lucky winners this week?
01:00:06
Speaker 1: So our winners this week are t Stein seven eight nine and Shane Ohoff.
01:00:13
Speaker 3: All right, te Stein seven eight nine, Shane Ohoff, t Stein seven eight nine, and Shane Ohoff. Congratulations Please contact podcasts at action network dot com to claim your prize as podcasts at Action network dot com. All right, that is gonna do it for us for this episode until next week.
01:00:42
Speaker 2: Let's get this money.
