DZ Season 063 Part 7. 300 Spartans and All That – Was Xerxes a Hedgehog or a Fox.
Was Xerxes a hedgehog or a fox? Since there’s an overwhelming chance that you have no idea what I’m talking about I am going to have to explain aren’t I.
But first to get some context. Xerxes plans for invading Greece had received an enthusiastic response from everyone except his uncle, Artabanus.…
Anthea Roberts on dragonfly thinking, integrating multiple perspectives, human-AI metacognition, and cognitive renaissance (AC Ep73)
"Not everyone can see with dragonfly eyes, but can we create tools that help enable people to see with dragonfly eyes?"
– Anthea Roberts
About Anthea Roberts
Anthea Roberts is Professor at the School of Regulation and Global Governance at the Australian National University (ANU) and…
019 | Mental Models 2: How To Think Like A Bayesian, Avoid Black Swans, & Know The Value of Your Decisions
This is part 2 of our series on Mental Models. In it, we’re bringing you the most useful and applicable models we’ve encountered in everything we’ve read, heard or seen over the years! In part 2 we unpack models from Bayesian reasoning, calibration, and expected value. We also cover fat-tailed dist…
Superforcasting: How to Predict the Future - Philip Tetlock
In "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction", Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner teach you how to predict the future following a few simple rules.
If you know someone who could use this, share it with them!
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Episode 142: BeLikeWater on Forecasting and Understanding Probability
BeLikeWater (a.k.a. Lisa) is a Superforecaster® with Good Judgment Inc., the forecasting project co-created by Professor Philip Tetlock (the co-author of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction), and a forecaster with Sentinel Global Risks Watch and the Swift Centre in the UK.
In a rece…
How “Adversarial Collaboration” Can Improve Research When Scientists Clash
I hope you’ll watch and share this fresh and fascinating discussion of a project hosted at the University of Pennsylvania aimed at fostering “adversarial collaboration” when researchers - as just one example - clash in the literature over data that could reveal why humans tend to hold fast to certa…
71 - Philip Tetlock and The Secret of Thinking Like a Fox
The Psychologist Philip Tetlock's life changing advice.
Why the Trump cult falls for propaganda easily
The pattern is undeniable. Every debunked conspiracy. Every obvious lie. Every absurd claim. Trump supporters believe it all without question.
It’s not stupidity. It’s psychology.
Research into authoritarian movements reveals a disturbing truth: cult members don’t fall for propaganda by accident. T…
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