The Countdown Is ON: Two Weeks Until Crucial Midterm Elections 的完整文字稿

mislead people, 49 00:01:28.110 --> 00:01:29.879 but we'll try to cut through some of the noise maybe a little bit, 50 00:01:29.910 --> 00:01:30.139 uh, 51 00:01:30.150 --> 00:01:30.949 later this week. 52 00:01:31.309 --> 00:01:31.610 Um, 53 00:01:31.790 --> 00:01:32.019 uh, 54 00:01:32.139 --> 00:01:33.379 if you have not joined yet, 55 00:01:33.629 --> 00:01:35.580 the Senate Fantasy League that we have going on, 56 00:01:35.720 --> 00:01:37.449 you should get in it because it's free to join 57 00:01:37.709 --> 00:01:39.389 and it's there's thousands of dollars in 58 00:01:39.389 --> 00:01:41.489 cash prizes just for predicting the winners 59 00:01:41.629 --> 00:01:42.250 of the Senate. 60 00:01:42.389 --> 00:01:43.940 It takes like 5 minutes to get your team in. 61 00:01:44.139 --> 00:01:44.849 It's a lot of fun. 62 00:01:45.150 --> 00:01:45.790 We're doing it now, 63 00:01:45.949 --> 00:01:47.370 Senate Fantasy.com. 64 00:01:47.870 --> 00:01:48.069 It's, 65 00:01:48.230 --> 00:01:48.540 uh, 66 00:01:48.650 --> 00:01:50.029 it's something I think you'll enjoy and hopefully, 67 00:01:50.040 --> 00:01:51.250 you'll definitely enjoy it if you win, 68 00:01:51.470 --> 00:01:52.150 because then you can, 69 00:01:52.269 --> 00:01:52.669 you know, 70 00:01:52.830 --> 00:01:54.650 either fill your prediction market account 71 00:01:54.870 --> 00:01:55.959 for investing in the future, 72 00:01:56.120 --> 00:01:59.510 or you can fill your belly with incredible amounts of Taco Bell. 73 00:01:59.940 --> 00:02:00.129 Uh, 74 00:02:00.139 --> 00:02:02.500 both of those things can happen with Senate Fantasy.com. 75 00:02:02.580 --> 00:02:02.730 And, 76 00:02:02.760 --> 00:02:04.180 and do we have the Senate Fantasy leaderboard, 77 00:02:04.279 --> 00:02:04.449 uh, 78 00:02:04.540 --> 00:02:04.660 up, 79 00:02:04.699 --> 00:02:05.050 by the way? 80 00:02:05.139 --> 00:02:05.419 This is, 81 00:02:05.489 --> 00:02:05.800 um, 82 00:02:06.019 --> 00:02:06.209 there's, 83 00:02:06.220 --> 00:02:06.339 you know, 84 00:02:06.410 --> 00:02:07.660 hundreds of people in it already. 85 00:02:07.959 --> 00:02:10.339 You start with 1000 points and then go up, 86 00:02:10.460 --> 00:02:11.330 up and down from there. 87 00:02:11.619 --> 00:02:14.570 The number 1 team right now is bring back the, 88 00:02:14.660 --> 00:02:16.149 the Redskins at number 1. 89 00:02:16.460 --> 00:02:19.279 Dave Landau for president is #2 currently. 90 00:02:19.820 --> 00:02:20.339 Interesting. 91 00:02:20.460 --> 00:02:20.580 Now, 92 00:02:20.660 --> 00:02:21.619 Dave told me today, 93 00:02:21.699 --> 00:02:21.770 uh, 94 00:02:21.979 --> 00:02:23.639 I do a show called Stu and Dave Do America 95 00:02:23.899 --> 00:02:24.669 as well on Blaze TV. 96 00:02:25.360 --> 00:02:25.479 Uh, 97 00:02:25.570 --> 00:02:27.309 something that I think you would enjoy. 98 00:02:27.729 --> 00:02:27.990 But, 99 00:02:28.050 --> 00:02:28.210 uh, 100 00:02:28.369 --> 00:02:29.649 Dave said he's gonna be putting a

team in, 101 00:02:29.729 --> 00:02:30.490 but it's not in yet, 102 00:02:30.559 --> 00:02:31.789 so that's not Dave. 103 00:02:32.389 --> 00:02:32.570 Uh, 104 00:02:32.690 --> 00:02:33.490 so I don't know who this is, 105 00:02:33.570 --> 00:02:34.669 but Dave Landau for president, 106 00:02:34.929 --> 00:02:35.960 the Blue Tsunami, 107 00:02:36.250 --> 00:02:37.149 Dubbells, 108 00:02:37.339 --> 00:02:37.600 uh, 109 00:02:37.690 --> 00:02:39.070 Panic Day prophecy. 110 00:02:39.449 --> 00:02:40.970 And it's interesting if you look here, 111 00:02:41.050 --> 00:02:43.089 and I'm gonna skip over the 10th slot there. 112 00:02:43.169 --> 00:02:43.240 Well, 113 00:02:43.330 --> 00:02:43.690 first of all, 114 00:02:43.889 --> 00:02:45.929 number 9 is definitely not Stuber here. 115 00:02:46.130 --> 00:02:46.240 Now, 116 00:02:46.289 --> 00:02:47.429 that is not my team. 117 00:02:48.050 --> 00:02:48.470 However, 118 00:02:48.929 --> 00:02:51.330 I think I can plausibly claim it if it wins. 119 00:02:51.699 --> 00:02:53.279 Cause you're not gonna remember this segment. 120 00:02:53.580 --> 00:02:54.279 And if I say not, 121 00:02:54.289 --> 00:02:55.009 definitely not super good. 122 00:02:55.059 --> 00:02:55.839 That was a joke. 123 00:02:56.380 --> 00:02:57.380 It actually is my team, 124 00:02:57.500 --> 00:02:58.240 you'll believe that. 125 00:02:58.460 --> 00:02:58.779 I just, 126 00:02:58.940 --> 00:02:59.059 the, 127 00:02:59.119 --> 00:03:01.380 the sad thing I don't want to address here is that Adam, 128 00:03:01.529 --> 00:03:02.110 our producer, 129 00:03:02.179 --> 00:03:04.880 is somehow in 10th place in this competition, 130 00:03:04.979 --> 00:03:06.139 which is a travesty. 131 00:03:06.300 --> 00:03:06.979 It's a sham, 132 00:03:07.020 --> 00:03:08.000 it's a mockery. 133 00:03:08.179 --> 00:03:09.720 It's a Travis sham mockery. 134 00:03:10.059 --> 00:03:10.250 Um, 135 00:03:10.339 --> 00:03:11.429 but I will say this. 136 00:03:12.070 --> 00:03:12.750 If you look at Adam, 137 00:03:12.830 --> 00:03:12.940 Steve, 138 00:03:13.029 --> 00:03:13.789 click on your team there, 139 00:03:13.869 --> 00:03:14.070 Adam, 140 00:03:14.110 --> 00:03:14.490 for a minute. 141 00:03:14.830 --> 00:03:15.270 And this is, 142 00:03:15.350 --> 00:03:16.110 when you click on the team, 143 00:03:16.190 --> 00:03:16.309 is it, 144 00:03:16.389 --> 00:03:16.820 or if you're not, 145 00:03:16.869 --> 00:03:17.539 or if you're not logged in, 146 00:03:17.589 --> 00:03:18.179 this isn't gonna work, 147 00:03:18.229 --> 00:03:18.710 is it? 148 00:03:19.190 --> 00:03:19.389 Uh, 149 00:03:19.509 --> 00:03:20.449 you're probably not logged in. 150 00:03:21.029 --> 00:03:21.710 typical Adam. 151 00:03:21.820 --> 00:03:22.100 He could, 152 00:03:22.190 --> 00:03:23.449 he could pick a top 10 team, 153 00:03:23.910 --> 00:03:25.750 but he can't log in his own account. 154 00:03:25.990 --> 00:03:26.270 Anyway, 155 00:03:26.419 --> 00:03:26.580 uh, 156 00:03:26.830 --> 00:03:27.589 if you log in, 157 00:03:27.669 --> 00:03:27.789 you, 158 00:03:27.869 --> 00:03:29.559 you click on the teams and you can see. 159 00:03:30.509 --> 00:03:31.699 Everybody who's been picked. 160 00:03:31.830 --> 00:03:32.660 And we have this set up, 161 00:03:32.669 --> 00:03:33.869 like it's very easy for you to do. 162 00:03:33.910 --> 00:03:34.979 If you don't even know these races, 163 00:03:35.029 --> 00:03:35.940 you can still guess, 164 00:03:36.270 --> 00:03:36.350 uh, 165 00:03:36.419 --> 00:03:36.550 you know, 166 00:03:36.589 --> 00:03:37.630 you got a 1 or 2 chance in these, 167 00:03:37.669 --> 00:03:37.789 and, 168 00:03:37.869 --> 00:03:38.789 and they show the percentages. 169 00:03:38.839 --> 00:03:39.649 It's very easy. 170 00:03:40.110 --> 00:03:40.270 But, 171 00:03:40.389 --> 00:03:40.509 you know, 172 00:03:40.550 --> 00:03:42.470 you have to take certain things from certain areas. 173 00:03:42.550 --> 00:03:43.000 You can take, 174 00:03:43.149 --> 00:03:43.960 there's regional candidates, 175 00:03:44.029 --> 00:03:44.910 you have to take an east candidate, 176 00:03:44.990 --> 00:03:45.750 a south candidate, 177 00:03:45.789 --> 00:03:46.570 a west candidate, 178 00:03:46.990 --> 00:03:47.270 um, 179 00:03:47.389 --> 00:03:47.509 you know, 180 00:03:47.550 --> 00:03:48.490 you pick an MVP, 181 00:03:48.630 --> 00:03:50.229 you got to pick one Republican and one Democrat. 182 00:03:50.320 --> 00:03:51.410 So every single team 183 00:03:51.750 --> 00:03:52.889 has at least one of each. 184 00:03:53.699 --> 00:03:55.220 Some of these teams though I've noticed, 185 00:03:55.460 --> 00:03:56.139 are picking like, 186 00:03:56.210 --> 00:03:56.720 let's say, 187 00:03:56.820 --> 00:03:57.860 all Democrats. 188 00:03:58.009 --> 00:03:58.179 OK, 189 00:03:58.250 --> 00:03:58.729 now we can see it. 190 00:03:58.779 --> 00:03:59.509 Here's Adam's team. 191 00:03:59.979 --> 00:04:00.899 And this is an example of it. 192 00:04:01.009 --> 00:04:01.809 All Democrats, 193 00:04:01.860 --> 00:04:03.240 except for the one time, 194 00:04:03.460 --> 00:04:04.720 you have to pick a Republican. 195 00:04:04.940 --> 00:04:05.369 In this case, 196 00:04:05.419 --> 00:04:07.050 he picked a Darlene Graham Nordone. 197 00:04:07.300 --> 00:04:07.500 I mean, 198 00:04:07.610 --> 00:04:09.660 we know what Darlene Graham Nordone looks like. 199 00:04:09.729 --> 00:04:10.539 Can we get her picture up there? 200 00:04:10.764 --> 00:04:10.904 What, 201 00:04:10.985 --> 00:04:12.044 what's going on with the site? 202 00:04:12.255 --> 00:04:12.975 Adam Hamilton, 203 00:04:13.125 --> 00:04:13.865 just no picture. 204 00:04:14.104 --> 00:04:14.845 He's a major, 205 00:04:15.225 --> 00:04:15.785 uh, 206 00:04:15.865 --> 00:04:16.144 you know, 207 00:04:16.225 --> 00:04:16.613 uh, 208 00:04:16.863 --> 00:04:19.005 mega church pastor in Kansas, 209 00:04:19.385 --> 00:04:19.803 and, 210 00:04:19.875 --> 00:04:20.265 uh, 211 00:04:20.385 -->

00:04:21.334 just no picture of him. 212 00:04:21.505 --> 00:04:21.733 Uh, 213 00:04:21.983 --> 00:04:23.265 you mentioned this to Brett. 214 00:04:23.464 --> 00:04:23.665 Brett, 215 00:04:23.864 --> 00:04:24.035 he's, 216 00:04:24.105 --> 00:04:24.665 he's on the plane. 217 00:04:24.725 --> 00:04:25.744 He can fix it on the plane. 218 00:04:26.065 --> 00:04:26.345 Add some, 219 00:04:26.505 --> 00:04:27.244 add some pictures. 220 00:04:27.424 --> 00:04:27.804 Um, 221 00:04:28.464 --> 00:04:28.744 at the, 222 00:04:28.785 --> 00:04:29.225 at the, 223 00:04:29.265 --> 00:04:29.505 uh, 224 00:04:29.665 --> 00:04:32.704 double point MVP he has as Abdul El Sayed. 225 00:04:32.945 --> 00:04:35.385 He's got Tallarico and Troy Jackson and Ossoff and, 226 00:04:35.709 --> 00:04:35.829 Uh, 227 00:04:35.989 --> 00:04:36.869 Sherrod Brown and Pelt, 228 00:04:36.989 --> 00:04:40.130 he picked almost all Democrats thinking there's gonna be maybe a bluish wave. 229 00:04:40.470 --> 00:04:41.929 What's interesting about this, 230 00:04:42.390 --> 00:04:44.049 we built this tool really for fun. 231 00:04:44.390 --> 00:04:46.779 For you to be able to have a place to kind of just hang out, 232 00:04:46.910 --> 00:04:47.929 make some predictions, 233 00:04:48.160 --> 00:04:48.910 go against your friends. 234 00:04:48.989 --> 00:04:52.019 There's a share feature where you can kind of challenge your friends on this. 235 00:04:52.070 --> 00:04:53.190 I encourage you to use that. 236 00:04:53.519 --> 00:04:53.630 Uh, 237 00:04:53.670 --> 00:04:55.140 you can battle them on the leaderboard. 238 00:04:55.200 --> 00:04:57.700 It's just fun to see who can predict the election better. 239 00:04:57.959 --> 00:05:00.100 But what it's actually kind of done is it's almost 240 00:05:00.480 --> 00:05:01.260 turned into 241 00:05:01.670 --> 00:05:03.220 an interesting measure 242 00:05:03.480 --> 00:05:05.019 as to what's happening in the election. 243 00:05:05.160 --> 00:05:06.589 Go back to that leaderboard for a second. 244 00:05:06.880 --> 00:05:07.040 Um, 245 00:05:07.119 --> 00:05:08.859 if you go to the top of this list, 246 00:05:09.140 --> 00:05:09.480 um, 247 00:05:09.600 --> 00:05:10.720 and you'll see some of these teams, 248 00:05:10.839 --> 00:05:11.000 again, 249 00:05:11.279 --> 00:05:13.260 the number 1 team bring back the Redskins. 250 00:05:13.440 --> 00:05:13.519 Uh, 251 00:05:13.600 --> 00:05:14.269 if you click on that, 252 00:05:14.399 --> 00:05:15.709 I'm gonna just tell you without even looking at it, 253 00:05:15.750 --> 00:05:16.760 it's gonna be all look at us, 254 00:05:16.839 --> 00:05:17.390 all Democrats, 255 00:05:17.470 --> 00:05:17.600 right? 256 00:05:17.760 --> 00:05:18.600 Dave Landau for president, 257 00:05:18.679 --> 00:05:19.200 what's he got? 258 00:05:19.640 --> 00:05:20.119 Uh, 259 00:05:20.160 --> 00:05:20.630 let's see, 260 00:05:20.709 --> 00:05:21.470 uh, 261 00:05:21.760 --> 00:05:22.440 almost all Democrats, 262 00:05:22.480 --> 00:05:25.109 only one extra Republican outside of the minimum. 263 00:05:25.239 --> 00:05:26.820 The Blue tsunami 264 00:05:27.000 --> 00:05:27.779 is the next one. 265 00:05:28.760 --> 00:05:31.260 there's only one Republican outside of the minimum. 266 00:05:31.519 --> 00:05:32.420 Um, 267 00:05:32.790 --> 00:05:34.470 Dobbells is the 4th-place 1. 268 00:05:34.679 --> 00:05:35.160 Again, 269 00:05:35.320 --> 00:05:36.519 a couple of them in there, 270 00:05:36.640 --> 00:05:37.709 a couple of Republicans, 271 00:05:38.040 --> 00:05:39.019 but generally speaking, 272 00:05:39.230 --> 00:05:40.820 all the teams at the top of this list 273 00:05:41.079 --> 00:05:43.179 are people that just basically picked all Democrats. 274 00:05:43.279 --> 00:05:43.519 Now, 275 00:05:43.920 --> 00:05:44.079 look, 276 00:05:44.239 --> 00:05:44.309 the, 277 00:05:44.359 --> 00:05:45.619 the leaderboard is fun to look at. 278 00:05:45.839 --> 00:05:46.040 Um, 279 00:05:46.119 --> 00:05:49.059 Adam is bragging about it constantly and it's infuriating. 280 00:05:49.359 --> 00:05:49.679 Um, 281 00:05:49.799 --> 00:05:50.100 but 282 00:05:50.559 --> 00:05:53.459 it doesn't really make much of a difference until election day, 283 00:05:53.959 --> 00:05:54.119 right? 284 00:05:54.239 --> 00:05:55.880 You're gonna look at it on election day and say, 285 00:05:56.000 --> 00:05:56.160 hey, 286 00:05:56.279 --> 00:05:56.440 if, 287 00:05:56.480 --> 00:05:57.559 if your candidates lose, 288 00:05:57.640 --> 00:05:58.609 you're gonna be weighed out at the bottom. 289 00:05:58.679 --> 00:05:59.279 If your candidates win, 290 00:05:59.320 --> 00:06:00.510 you're gonna be weighed up at the top. 291 00:06:00.769 --> 00:06:01.739 That's how this works. 292 00:06:02.119 --> 00:06:02.359 So, 293 00:06:02.410 --> 00:06:02.519 uh, 294 00:06:02.589 --> 00:06:02.829 check it out, 295 00:06:02.950 --> 00:06:03.839 Senate Fantasy.com. 296 00:06:03.920 --> 00:06:04.040 And, 297 00:06:04.109 --> 00:06:04.709 and basically, 298 00:06:04.720 --> 00:06:05.940 it's telling us since 299 00:06:06.399 --> 00:06:07.640 we launched this competition, 300 00:06:07.679 --> 00:06:09.100 which is a couple of weeks ago, 301 00:06:09.359 --> 00:06:12.540 there has been movement in prediction markets toward Democrats 302 00:06:12.880 --> 00:06:13.640 all over the board. 303 00:06:14.420 --> 00:06:17.579 And that has been true every time I've checked it. 304 00:06:17.910 --> 00:06:18.459 I will say too, 305 00:06:18.510 --> 00:06:19.309 if you look at the leaderboard, 306 00:06:19.350 --> 00:06:20.149 you will see my team, 307 00:06:20.190 --> 00:06:21.390 and I'm not at the top, 308 00:06:21.470 --> 00:06:22.540 but I'm doing OK. 309 00:06:22.790 --> 00:06:22.980 I'm, 310 00:06:22.989 --> 00:06:23.299 I'm, 311 00:06:23.309 --> 00:06:23.739 uh, 312 00:06:23.750 --> 00:06:24.179 I don't know. 313 00:06:24.269 --> 00:06:25.029 I don't know what place I'm in. 314 00:06:25.059 --> 00:06:26.179 I don't know if you

could find me real quick. 315 00:06:26.589 --> 00:06:27.890 The other thing I did notice is 316 00:06:28.149 --> 00:06:29.589 right behind me is now my son. 317 00:06:29.950 --> 00:06:30.140 Look at that, 318 00:06:30.190 --> 00:06:30.269 oh, 319 00:06:30.309 --> 00:06:30.390 no, 320 00:06:30.510 --> 00:06:31.070 now he's ahead of me. 321 00:06:31.119 --> 00:06:31.850 Oh no. 322 00:06:32.230 --> 00:06:32.350 No, 323 00:06:32.429 --> 00:06:33.649 this is terrible news. 324 00:06:34.190 --> 00:06:34.630 Edit this, 325 00:06:34.709 --> 00:06:35.809 edit this out of the show. 326 00:06:36.369 --> 00:06:36.589 Uh, 327 00:06:37.149 --> 00:06:37.309 get, 328 00:06:37.510 --> 00:06:38.369 get this out and post. 329 00:06:38.579 --> 00:06:39.649 ZB cards is my son, 330 00:06:39.989 --> 00:06:40.820 big sports card collector. 331 00:06:40.850 --> 00:06:41.399 I'm back to, 332 00:06:41.470 --> 00:06:42.230 I'm back to even, 333 00:06:42.269 --> 00:06:42.420 like, 334 00:06:42.429 --> 00:06:43.010 I haven't. 335 00:06:43.299 --> 00:06:43.500 I mean, 336 00:06:43.820 --> 00:06:43.940 you know, 337 00:06:44.019 --> 00:06:45.820 1000 points is basically where you start. 338 00:06:45.920 --> 00:06:46.769 So I'm at even it's, 339 00:06:46.779 --> 00:06:47.049 that's, 340 00:06:47.059 --> 00:06:47.290 uh, 341 00:06:47.299 --> 00:06:48.880 53rd place, 342 00:06:49.459 --> 00:06:49.660 uh, 343 00:06:49.779 --> 00:06:50.320 give or take, 344 00:06:50.709 --> 00:06:50.980 uh, 345 00:06:51.100 --> 00:06:52.579 and Zach and I are now tied. 346 00:06:52.779 --> 00:06:53.160 Um, 347 00:06:53.260 --> 00:06:53.559 but 348 00:06:53.779 --> 00:06:54.540 they have our employees, 349 00:06:54.609 --> 00:06:54.779 there's, 350 00:06:54.890 --> 00:06:56.700 there's a bunch of Blaze people who are adding their team. 351 00:06:56.790 --> 00:06:57.059 So anyway, 352 00:06:57.140 --> 00:06:57.540 that's just fun. 353 00:06:57.660 --> 00:06:58.010 Just do it. 354 00:06:58.160 --> 00:06:59.059 Senate Fantasy.com. 355 00:06:59.149 --> 00:07:00.760 does tell an interesting story though 356 00:07:01.019 --> 00:07:01.829 about the Senate, 357 00:07:02.059 --> 00:07:03.880 and polling tells a story, 358 00:07:04.260 --> 00:07:05.679 and prediction markets tell a story. 359 00:07:07.170 --> 00:07:08.089 I wanna show you, 360 00:07:08.250 --> 00:07:10.630 this is the Calci midterms hub. 361 00:07:10.730 --> 00:07:12.040 This is an interesting place for you. 362 00:07:12.089 --> 00:07:13.369 If you are a person who's like, 363 00:07:13.450 --> 00:07:13.609 I, 364 00:07:13.690 --> 00:07:14.350 I just wanna see 365 00:07:14.690 --> 00:07:15.089 who's gonna win. 366 00:07:15.160 --> 00:07:16.750 I don't care about your stupid fantasy leagues. 367 00:07:16.970 --> 00:07:18.119 I don't care about your, 368 00:07:18.130 --> 00:07:18.600 uh, 369 00:07:18.609 --> 00:07:18.869 your, 370 00:07:18.970 --> 00:07:20.209 your prediction markets. 371 00:07:20.290 --> 00:07:21.869 I don't really care about any of that. 372 00:07:22.329 --> 00:07:22.950 You're not alone, 373 00:07:23.040 --> 00:07:23.790 by the way. 374 00:07:24.329 --> 00:07:25.950 A lot of people who watch the show 375 00:07:26.209 --> 00:07:26.589 don't 376 00:07:27.010 --> 00:07:28.079 go on prediction markets at all, 377 00:07:28.209 --> 00:07:29.290 and that's totally fine. 378 00:07:29.619 --> 00:07:29.809 Um, 379 00:07:29.899 --> 00:07:30.730 getting the best election 380 00:07:31.230 --> 00:07:33.730 coverage and election information is the goal. 381 00:07:34.070 --> 00:07:35.260 Calci has a, 382 00:07:35.350 --> 00:07:35.829 an election, 383 00:07:36.040 --> 00:07:37.269 election midterms hub. 384 00:07:37.339 --> 00:07:38.089 Let's bring that up, 385 00:07:38.309 --> 00:07:38.549 um, 386 00:07:38.709 --> 00:07:38.899 that, 387 00:07:38.980 --> 00:07:39.109 uh, 388 00:07:39.269 --> 00:07:40.510 shows you kind of a map of the states. 389 00:07:40.619 --> 00:07:40.869 This is, 390 00:07:40.989 --> 00:07:41.950 these are all the states, 391 00:07:41.989 --> 00:07:42.100 uh, 392 00:07:42.149 --> 00:07:43.109 this is a Senate map. 393 00:07:43.630 --> 00:07:46.329 And it shows you where everything is with the percentages 394 00:07:46.549 --> 00:07:47.019 next to it, 395 00:07:47.029 --> 00:07:49.140 so you can kind of just see where states are leaning, 396 00:07:49.190 --> 00:07:50.989 at least according to these prediction markets. 397 00:07:51.230 --> 00:07:51.890 What do people 398 00:07:52.029 --> 00:07:54.589 who have their money on the line actually believe? 399 00:07:54.670 --> 00:07:55.709 Let's go to our Senate map. 400 00:07:55.779 --> 00:07:56.429 This is another tool, 401 00:07:56.470 --> 00:07:57.010 by the way, 402 00:07:57.220 --> 00:07:57.429 um, 403 00:07:57.510 --> 00:07:57.940 the Senate, 404 00:07:57.989 --> 00:07:58.380 uh, 405 00:07:58.470 --> 00:07:59.450 the Senate board, 406 00:07:59.700 --> 00:08:00.130 um, 407 00:08:00.480 --> 00:08:00.739 uh, 408 00:08:00.829 --> 00:08:03.049 that's another tool that we have for you 409 00:08:03.470 --> 00:08:05.130 to kind of be able to see. 410 00:08:06.179 --> 00:08:08.040 And play with Senate control. 411 00:08:08.299 --> 00:08:08.619 If you're saying, 412 00:08:08.700 --> 00:08:08.859 well, 413 00:08:08.940 --> 00:08:10.059 this state's kind of a toss-up, 414 00:08:10.100 --> 00:08:11.170 this state's leaning this way, 415 00:08:11.179 --> 00:08:13.040 and you can kind of drag the states around yourself 416 00:08:13.540 --> 00:08:14.559 and be able to see 417 00:08:15.059 --> 00:08:16.790 who has control of the Senate and who doesn't. 418 00:08:16.859 --> 00:08:18.100 And I thought it'd be an interesting exercise. 419 00:08:18.179 --> 00:08:19.209 We did this the other day with the, 420 00:08:19.220 --> 00:08:19.459 uh, 421 00:08:19.529 --> 00:08:20.540 with the election model, 422 00:08:20.700 --> 00:08:22.440 another free tool that we have up 423 00:08:22.660 --> 00:08:23.959 at predictableShow.com. 424

00:08:24.179 --> 00:08:25.230 Tons of this stuff is up there, 425 00:08:25.500 --> 00:08:26.279 and I built this. 426 00:08:26.730 --> 00:08:27.209 Honestly, 427 00:08:27.269 --> 00:08:27.790 for myself, 428 00:08:28.329 --> 00:08:28.640 uh, 429 00:08:28.649 --> 00:08:29.130 because I, 430 00:08:29.209 --> 00:08:30.690 this is how I think through the elections, 431 00:08:30.799 --> 00:08:31.049 and I, 432 00:08:31.089 --> 00:08:31.399 I thought, 433 00:08:31.609 --> 00:08:31.730 well, 434 00:08:31.809 --> 00:08:32.630 if I'm doing this, 435 00:08:32.640 --> 00:08:34.440 and I'm doing this for my prediction market positions, 436 00:08:34.650 --> 00:08:36.469 I want you to have access to this as well, 437 00:08:36.929 --> 00:08:38.900 and you can drag these states around wherever you want, 438 00:08:39.099 --> 00:08:39.409 and you can, 439 00:08:39.489 --> 00:08:41.440 it'll calculate for you in real time. 440 00:08:41.729 --> 00:08:44.109 So this is the predictable Senate board where we are right now, 441 00:08:44.369 --> 00:08:46.929 and I put all of these states that are, 442 00:08:46.969 --> 00:08:47.159 uh, 443 00:08:47.169 --> 00:08:48.169 in the toss-up category, 444 00:08:48.250 --> 00:08:49.169 we're gonna drag these, 445 00:08:49.409 --> 00:08:49.640 uh, 446 00:08:49.650 --> 00:08:50.710 to both sides 447 00:08:50.929 --> 00:08:53.950 as the prediction markets are predicting them right now. 448 00:08:54.510 --> 00:08:54.849 Um, 449 00:08:55.020 --> 00:08:56.299 we're gonna look at that and just. 450 00:08:57.020 --> 00:08:58.270 Make this sort of like, 451 00:08:58.330 --> 00:08:58.890 uh, 452 00:08:58.969 --> 00:09:00.679 if prediction markets are exactly right, 453 00:09:00.690 --> 00:09:02.440 and they probably won't be exactly right, 454 00:09:02.489 --> 00:09:03.119 I will say, 455 00:09:03.369 --> 00:09:05.510 when you're talking about 2 weeks out from any given 456 00:09:05.849 --> 00:09:06.330 data point, 457 00:09:06.409 --> 00:09:08.090 they are incredibly well calibrated. 458 00:09:08.330 --> 00:09:09.900 Millions of markets have been looked at. 459 00:09:10.280 --> 00:09:13.450 And if something it says it's a 20% chance to happen, 460 00:09:13.590 --> 00:09:15.289 happens about 20% of the time, 461 00:09:15.510 --> 00:09:16.280 20% of the time. 462 00:09:16.369 --> 00:09:18.130 So if you see a candidate that's at 20%, 463 00:09:18.330 --> 00:09:19.559 that doesn't mean they've lost. 464 00:09:19.809 --> 00:09:20.520 It just means that, 465 00:09:20.530 --> 00:09:20.960 uh, 466 00:09:20.969 --> 00:09:23.030 they will win about 20% of the time 467 00:09:23.369 --> 00:09:24.320 according to prediction markets, 468 00:09:24.330 --> 00:09:27.210 which have been proven incredibly accurate over long periods of time. 469 00:09:27.289 --> 00:09:28.200 You can always find mistakes. 470 00:09:28.210 --> 00:09:29.830 You can always find some that don't fit the bill, 471 00:09:30.570 --> 00:09:31.570 but generally speaking, 472 00:09:31.659 --> 00:09:32.200 they've done very, 473 00:09:32.250 --> 00:09:32.530 very well. 474 00:09:32.650 --> 00:09:33.919 So let's go through this right now. 475 00:09:34.059 --> 00:09:34.929 Let's start with Florida. 476 00:09:35.010 --> 00:09:35.630 Florida is, 477 00:09:35.650 --> 00:09:36.030 uh, 478 00:09:36.169 --> 00:09:37.229 kind of at the edge 479 00:09:37.450 --> 00:09:38.659 of the conversation of, 480 00:09:38.719 --> 00:09:39.000 uh, 481 00:09:39.010 --> 00:09:39.390 most, 482 00:09:39.450 --> 00:09:39.960 uh, 483 00:09:40.530 --> 00:09:40.849 Uh, 484 00:09:40.929 --> 00:09:41.890 of competitive, 485 00:09:42.130 --> 00:09:42.739 uh, 486 00:09:43.049 --> 00:09:43.450 Florida is, 487 00:09:43.530 --> 00:09:45.349 is leaning Republican for sure. 488 00:09:45.609 --> 00:09:45.719 Uh, 489 00:09:45.809 --> 00:09:48.200 so Florida will go to the Republican right now, 490 00:09:48.289 --> 00:09:49.650 that is Ashley Moody. 491 00:09:50.619 --> 00:09:52.330 And Moody is at, 492 00:09:52.789 --> 00:09:53.109 uh, 493 00:09:53.190 --> 00:09:53.630 let's see, 494 00:09:53.710 --> 00:09:55.070 90. 495 00:09:56.859 --> 00:09:57.690 90, 496 00:09:57.700 --> 00:09:58.950 90% chance to win. 497 00:09:59.140 --> 00:09:59.820 Ashley Moody. 498 00:10:00.140 --> 00:10:00.250 Uh, 499 00:10:00.380 --> 00:10:00.500 sorry, 500 00:10:00.619 --> 00:10:00.780 my, 501 00:10:00.820 --> 00:10:01.320 uh, 502 00:10:01.500 --> 00:10:03.599 my phone is acting up here as I'm doing this live. 503 00:10:03.849 --> 00:10:04.090 Uh, 504 00:10:04.340 --> 00:10:06.419 90% chance to win 505 00:10:06.700 --> 00:10:07.130 in, 506 00:10:07.219 --> 00:10:07.380 uh, 507 00:10:07.539 --> 00:10:08.419 Florida for Moody. 508 00:10:08.500 --> 00:10:11.340 So we'll drive it over to the right side and we'll reveal the top of this at the end, 509 00:10:11.440 --> 00:10:11.619 Adam, 510 00:10:11.739 --> 00:10:12.059 so don't, 511 00:10:12.099 --> 00:10:13.239 let's not go off of the screen. 512 00:10:13.590 --> 00:10:13.760 Uh, 513 00:10:13.869 --> 00:10:15.919 next up we will go with Minnesota. 514 00:10:16.200 --> 00:10:19.109 Minnesota is Peggy Flanagan going up against Michelle Tafoya. 515 00:10:19.479 --> 00:10:20.750 Been a competitive race and, 516 00:10:20.880 --> 00:10:20.989 and, 517 00:10:21.080 --> 00:10:23.179 and a race that I think Democrats are upset about 518 00:10:23.359 --> 00:10:23.979 it being 519 00:10:24.320 --> 00:10:25.710 competitive right now though, 520 00:10:26.000 --> 00:10:27.880 prediction markets don't see it as that close. 521 00:10:28.000 --> 00:10:30.239 They see it as a lean Democrat, 522 00:10:30.489 --> 00:10:33.260 an 88% chance for Peggy Flanagan 523 00:10:33.400 --> 00:10:34.260 to win that race, 524 00:10:34.719 --> 00:10:36.599 according to the Calci markets currently. 525 00:10:36.989 --> 00:10:37.250 Um, 526 00:10:37.349 --> 00:10:38.830 Alaska is up next. 527 00:10:38.940 --> 00:10:39.950 Alaska is, 528 00:10:40.190 --> 00:10:40.590 by

the way, 529 00:10:40.669 --> 00:10:41.270 if you have, 530 00:10:41.390 --> 00:10:42.570 if you are a predictable 531 00:10:43.119 --> 00:10:44.099 premium member, 532 00:10:44.309 --> 00:10:46.429 you get access to every Senate race and 533 00:10:46.429 --> 00:10:48.109 how it matches up against prediction markets. 534 00:10:48.229 --> 00:10:49.390 The biggest gap 535 00:10:49.549 --> 00:10:50.020 in the entire, 536 00:10:50.109 --> 00:10:51.489 on the entire board is Alaska. 537 00:10:51.830 --> 00:10:54.530 The prediction markets are much more aggressive 538 00:10:54.830 --> 00:10:56.369 than the prediction model is. 539 00:10:56.750 --> 00:10:57.109 Um, 540 00:10:57.239 --> 00:10:59.130 the markets like Alaska 541 00:10:59.349 --> 00:11:00.969 quite a bit for the Democrats, 542 00:11:01.229 --> 00:11:01.619 and, 543 00:11:01.630 --> 00:11:01.830 uh, 544 00:11:01.989 --> 00:11:03.349 Mary Peltola, 545 00:11:03.590 --> 00:11:04.369 she is. 546 00:11:04.830 --> 00:11:05.390 Uh, 547 00:11:05.510 --> 00:11:08.109 coming in at 76% chance to win. 548 00:11:08.190 --> 00:11:10.390 So we'll drag that over to the Democratic side. 549 00:11:10.710 --> 00:11:12.690 Peltola at 76%. 550 00:11:13.030 --> 00:11:15.909 Up next is the state of South Carolina. 551 00:11:15.989 --> 00:11:17.210 We've mentioned that before, 552 00:11:17.520 --> 00:11:17.619 uh, 553 00:11:17.659 --> 00:11:19.109 with Darlene Graham Nordone. 554 00:11:19.229 --> 00:11:20.429 We don't know what she looks like. 555 00:11:20.549 --> 00:11:21.229 We have no, 556 00:11:21.349 --> 00:11:23.330 there are no known photographs 557 00:11:23.590 --> 00:11:25.309 of Darlene Graham Nordone. 558 00:11:25.729 --> 00:11:26.090 Uh, 559 00:11:26.570 --> 00:11:26.650 uh, 560 00:11:26.719 --> 00:11:28.650 but she has an 82% chance to win. 561 00:11:28.729 --> 00:11:28.989 So, 562 00:11:29.169 --> 00:11:29.320 uh, 563 00:11:29.450 --> 00:11:30.929 we're driving over to the Republican side. 564 00:11:31.210 --> 00:11:32.849 We'll drive these all just to the leanners for now, 565 00:11:32.929 --> 00:11:32.969 uh, 566 00:11:33.080 --> 00:11:33.210 Adam, 567 00:11:33.289 --> 00:11:33.679 as we go, 568 00:11:33.770 --> 00:11:34.270 as we go. 569 00:11:34.570 --> 00:11:34.830 OK, 570 00:11:34.890 --> 00:11:35.359 um, 571 00:11:35.489 --> 00:11:37.650 next up is the state of Mississippi. 572 00:11:37.809 --> 00:11:40.070 How is this a state that's not like decided? 573 00:11:40.119 --> 00:11:41.489 It's freaking Mississippi. 574 00:11:42.000 --> 00:11:42.710 But Mississippi, 575 00:11:42.760 --> 00:11:44.239 when it comes to prediction markets, 576 00:11:44.520 --> 00:11:45.000 they have, 577 00:11:45.080 --> 00:11:45.390 uh, 578 00:11:45.599 --> 00:11:46.159 Scott Colom, 579 00:11:46.239 --> 00:11:46.979 the Democrat, 580 00:11:47.320 --> 00:11:48.140 a chance to win, 581 00:11:48.320 --> 00:11:48.400 uh, 582 00:11:48.440 --> 00:11:48.559 uh, 583 00:11:48.640 --> 00:11:49.630 that is in double digits, 584 00:11:49.679 --> 00:11:51.989 which is a lot if you think about the state of Mississippi, 585 00:11:52.039 --> 00:11:53.479 but Sydney Hyde-Smith still the heavy favorite, 586 00:11:53.559 --> 00:11:54.380 89% 587 00:11:54.599 --> 00:11:56.940 will go over to the Republican side 588 00:11:57.280 --> 00:11:57.700 there. 589 00:11:58.080 --> 00:11:58.340 Then 590 00:11:58.520 --> 00:12:00.400 the next state we will go to is Kansas. 591 00:12:00.510 --> 00:12:03.059 We're getting into the real toss-up territory now. 592 00:12:03.840 --> 00:12:04.359 Kansas. 593 00:12:04.580 --> 00:12:07.049 Is Adam Hamilton versus Roger Marshall. 594 00:12:07.380 --> 00:12:07.659 Marshall, 595 00:12:07.700 --> 00:12:08.460 the Republican, 596 00:12:08.580 --> 00:12:10.260 still with a lead according to prediction markets, 597 00:12:10.299 --> 00:12:11.640 61% chance 598 00:12:11.820 --> 00:12:12.770 for Roger Marshall. 599 00:12:13.010 --> 00:12:15.179 We'll drag that over to the Republican side. 600 00:12:15.500 --> 00:12:15.780 Uh, 601 00:12:15.859 --> 00:12:19.239 and that is a race where the polling is not necessarily 602 00:12:19.460 --> 00:12:20.640 in line with the markets. 603 00:12:21.140 --> 00:12:24.080 Polling seems to be leaning in the very slightest bit 604 00:12:24.299 --> 00:12:24.929 towards Hamilton, 605 00:12:25.000 --> 00:12:27.440 though I believe Roger Marshall led the most recent poll, 606 00:12:27.700 --> 00:12:27.859 very, 607 00:12:27.940 --> 00:12:28.799 very close state. 608 00:12:29.099 --> 00:12:30.739 Certainly a toss-up at this point, 609 00:12:30.820 --> 00:12:32.460 but we're gonna drag it no matter what, 610 00:12:32.539 --> 00:12:32.659 uh, 611 00:12:32.729 --> 00:12:33.179 into the, 612 00:12:33.219 --> 00:12:33.409 uh, 613 00:12:33.500 --> 00:12:34.840 into one of the two categories. 614 00:12:35.099 --> 00:12:35.419 Next up, 615 00:12:35.460 --> 00:12:37.179 we will go with, 616 00:12:37.299 --> 00:12:38.200 let's go Texas. 617 00:12:39.080 --> 00:12:40.190 Texas up next. 618 00:12:40.260 --> 00:12:40.530 Uh, 619 00:12:40.690 --> 00:12:42.299 James Tallarico has been leading in the polls, 620 00:12:42.359 --> 00:12:42.830 although 621 00:12:43.400 --> 00:12:46.609 Paxton led a poll recently and has closed the gap from these 622 00:12:46.609 --> 00:12:49.919 4 and 6-point margins to more like 1 or 2-point margins. 623 00:12:50.349 --> 00:12:52.859 One of our kind of thesis statements on this program is to say, 624 00:12:52.969 --> 00:12:53.190 hey, 625 00:12:53.409 --> 00:12:53.530 you know, 626 00:12:53.609 --> 00:12:54.750 when you get closer to an election, 627 00:12:55.590 --> 00:12:57.690 What you generally see happening 628 00:12:58.030 --> 00:12:59.349 is people coming home. 629 00:13:00.010 --> 00:13:00.450 Um, 630 00:13:00.530 --> 00:13:00.869 and, 631 00:13:00.940 --> 00:13:01.130 uh, 632 00:13:01.210 --> 00:13:02.489 if you're a Republican voter, 633 00:13:02.570 --> 00:13:04.409 you maybe you're a little upset with

Paxton, 634 00:13:04.830 --> 00:13:04.849 yeah, 635 00:13:04.989 --> 00:13:05.929 you get to that voting booth, 636 00:13:05.960 --> 00:13:06.489 you kind of say, 637 00:13:06.570 --> 00:13:06.890 you know what, 638 00:13:06.929 --> 00:13:07.989 I don't want a Democrat, 639 00:13:08.380 --> 00:13:08.599 uh, 640 00:13:08.609 --> 00:13:08.909 Senate, 641 00:13:09.280 --> 00:13:09.400 uh, 642 00:13:09.489 --> 00:13:10.289 so you might come home. 643 00:13:10.570 --> 00:13:11.330 Texas right now, 644 00:13:11.409 --> 00:13:11.729 however, 645 00:13:11.979 --> 00:13:12.710 still favored 646 00:13:12.890 --> 00:13:13.919 for Democrats, 647 00:13:14.010 --> 00:13:17.409 a 62% chance for James Tallarico to win that race, 648 00:13:17.450 --> 00:13:17.989 according to 649 00:13:18.229 --> 00:13:19.090 Calie right now. 650 00:13:19.130 --> 00:13:21.190 We'll drag that over to the Democratic side. 651 00:13:21.570 --> 00:13:21.760 Uh, 652 00:13:21.770 --> 00:13:23.369 a few more races to go here. 653 00:13:23.450 --> 00:13:24.770 Let's go to Ohio. 654 00:13:25.210 --> 00:13:25.380 Uh, 655 00:13:25.489 --> 00:13:26.700 Ohio is a, 656 00:13:26.820 --> 00:13:27.130 is a, 657 00:13:27.179 --> 00:13:28.640 is an interesting race. 658 00:13:28.900 --> 00:13:29.250 It is, 659 00:13:29.299 --> 00:13:29.460 uh, 660 00:13:29.659 --> 00:13:30.280 Sherrod Brown, 661 00:13:30.419 --> 00:13:32.809 former senator from the state of Ohio, 662 00:13:33.099 --> 00:13:34.280 going up against the current 663 00:13:34.559 --> 00:13:35.820 appointed senator, 664 00:13:36.099 --> 00:13:36.900 John Husted. 665 00:13:37.020 --> 00:13:39.599 He was appointed when JD Vance became vice president. 666 00:13:39.900 --> 00:13:40.049 Uh, 667 00:13:40.140 --> 00:13:40.900 and right now, 668 00:13:40.979 --> 00:13:43.330 prediction markets like Sherrod Brown to win the race, 669 00:13:43.380 --> 00:13:44.880 65% chance 670 00:13:45.010 --> 00:13:45.690 for Sherrod Brown. 671 00:13:45.700 --> 00:13:47.119 That'll go to the leading Democrat 672 00:13:47.460 --> 00:13:48.559 in this particular 673 00:13:49.140 --> 00:13:51.520 race in a special election in Ohio. 674 00:13:52.309 --> 00:13:52.809 Michigan, 675 00:13:52.950 --> 00:13:53.469 we know this one. 676 00:13:53.530 --> 00:13:54.390 Abdul El Sayed, 677 00:13:54.500 --> 00:13:55.770 big debate tomorrow night, 678 00:13:55.900 --> 00:13:56.429 by the way. 679 00:13:56.549 --> 00:13:58.989 El Sayed again going up against Mike Rogers. 680 00:13:59.030 --> 00:14:00.989 It was a really vicious debate last time. 681 00:14:01.059 --> 00:14:02.609 They're both got each other's throats. 682 00:14:02.989 --> 00:14:03.219 Uh, 683 00:14:03.309 --> 00:14:03.989 I don't know if you, 684 00:14:04.059 --> 00:14:04.179 uh, 685 00:14:04.510 --> 00:14:04.830 personally, 686 00:14:04.869 --> 00:14:06.210 not a huge fan of the style, 687 00:14:06.950 --> 00:14:07.229 um, 688 00:14:07.309 --> 00:14:07.750 of, 689 00:14:08.030 --> 00:14:08.710 of El Sayed, 690

00:14:08.789 --> 00:14:08.900 but, 691 00:14:08.909 --> 00:14:09.150 you know, 692 00:14:09.270 --> 00:14:10.570 I'm not a fan of his politics either, 693 00:14:10.700 --> 00:14:11.109 frankly. 694 00:14:11.429 --> 00:14:11.710 Um, 695 00:14:11.830 --> 00:14:14.030 so Michigan though is still leaning Democrats, 696 00:14:14.070 --> 00:14:16.929 68% chance for El Sayed to pull that one off. 697 00:14:17.309 --> 00:14:19.169 The polling's been very close there. 698 00:14:19.349 --> 00:14:21.289 We pulled that over to the Democratic side. 699 00:14:21.520 --> 00:14:22.479 Two more states to go, 700 00:14:22.669 --> 00:14:23.070 Maine, 701 00:14:23.150 --> 00:14:23.429 of course, 702 00:14:23.619 --> 00:14:25.330 Susan Collins versus, 703 00:14:25.780 --> 00:14:26.179 um, 704 00:14:26.390 --> 00:14:26.830 Jackson. 705 00:14:26.909 --> 00:14:28.090 Troy Jackson is there. 706 00:14:28.619 --> 00:14:31.409 This is one of the closest races in the entire Senate, 707 00:14:31.510 --> 00:14:32.169 and right now, 708 00:14:32.179 --> 00:14:33.609 63% chance 709 00:14:33.909 --> 00:14:36.169 for Troy Jackson to pull it off 710 00:14:36.390 --> 00:14:37.419 over Susan Collins. 711 00:14:37.429 --> 00:14:37.789 Jackson, 712 00:14:37.909 --> 00:14:40.289 who told Collins to shut up in the middle of the debate 713 00:14:40.630 --> 00:14:41.109 the other night. 714 00:14:42.179 --> 00:14:43.630 Which I guess is a positive in Maine. 715 00:14:43.710 --> 00:14:43.960 I don't, 716 00:14:44.059 --> 00:14:44.369 I, 717 00:14:44.989 --> 00:14:45.210 maybe, 718 00:14:45.229 --> 00:14:46.210 I don't think she was saying it. 719 00:14:46.469 --> 00:14:47.020 All she said was, 720 00:14:47.030 --> 00:14:49.229 I think someone was protesting in the crowd and I think I, 721 00:14:49.429 --> 00:14:49.669 she said, 722 00:14:49.710 --> 00:14:51.359 I think that's one of Tory Jackson's supporters. 723 00:14:51.630 --> 00:14:51.710 She, 724 00:14:51.789 --> 00:14:52.150 she goes, 725 00:14:52.190 --> 00:14:52.390 oh, 726 00:14:52.489 --> 00:14:53.150 shut up. 727 00:14:54.770 --> 00:14:55.719 He's quite a character. 728 00:14:55.929 --> 00:14:57.030 I don't think he's a very good candidate, 729 00:14:57.090 --> 00:14:58.989 but he is leading 63% chance, 730 00:14:59.280 --> 00:14:59.500 uh, 731 00:14:59.609 --> 00:15:00.969 for Troy Jackson 732 00:15:01.130 --> 00:15:02.130 in prediction markets. 733 00:15:02.289 --> 00:15:03.049 And that leaves us with, 734 00:15:03.130 --> 00:15:03.260 uh, 735 00:15:03.369 --> 00:15:04.520 that we've read that to the Democratic side, 736 00:15:04.609 --> 00:15:05.989 that leaves us with only Iowa. 737 00:15:06.330 --> 00:15:09.440 Iowa is the closest state by most measures 738 00:15:09.570 --> 00:15:10.640 when it comes to prediction markets. 739 00:15:10.809 --> 00:15:13.479 Polling is back and forth between Turk and Hinson. 740 00:15:13.849 --> 00:15:14.789 This is a race, 741 00:15:15.450 --> 00:15:18.510 another tool that we have built here

at PredictableShow.com. 742 00:15:19.580 --> 00:15:20.219 Is, 743 00:15:20.580 --> 00:15:20.770 uh, 744 00:15:20.859 --> 00:15:22.909 the Republican freak out index, 745 00:15:23.140 --> 00:15:25.880 which kind of shows you which states you could see real problems 746 00:15:26.179 --> 00:15:27.419 and for Republicans, 747 00:15:27.539 --> 00:15:27.650 uh, 748 00:15:27.739 --> 00:15:31.729 and Iowa is up there near the top of the list with factors like fuel prices, 749 00:15:31.799 --> 00:15:32.010 uh, 750 00:15:32.030 --> 00:15:32.969 going up the most, 751 00:15:33.340 --> 00:15:34.380 diesel prices, 752 00:15:34.460 --> 00:15:34.890 um, 753 00:15:35.000 --> 00:15:35.380 uh, 754 00:15:35.539 --> 00:15:36.580 also tariffs, 755 00:15:36.590 --> 00:15:36.729 uh, 756 00:15:36.739 --> 00:15:38.030 affecting that area quite a bit. 757 00:15:38.419 --> 00:15:38.539 Uh, 758 00:15:38.659 --> 00:15:39.940 so Iowa goes, 759 00:15:40.030 --> 00:15:40.219 uh, 760 00:15:40.340 --> 00:15:41.380 in this particular race, 761 00:15:41.460 --> 00:15:41.739 however, 762 00:15:41.979 --> 00:15:42.679 still sticking 763 00:15:43.020 --> 00:15:43.960 with the Republicans, 764 00:15:44.059 --> 00:15:46.619 only a 58% chance for Henson to win there. 765 00:15:46.950 --> 00:15:47.090 Uh, 766 00:15:47.150 --> 00:15:49.429 that was one of my favorite races coming into this election. 767 00:15:49.510 --> 00:15:51.169 I really like that position quite a bit, 768 00:15:51.429 --> 00:15:53.150 and it is making me nervous. 769 00:15:53.229 --> 00:15:53.510 I will, 770 00:15:53.590 --> 00:15:54.270 I will be honest with you, 771 00:15:54.309 --> 00:15:55.739 it's making me a little nervous. 772 00:15:56.030 --> 00:15:57.099 It's the polling has been very, 773 00:15:57.179 --> 00:15:57.469 very close. 774 00:15:57.590 --> 00:15:57.989 So that's it. 775 00:15:58.030 --> 00:15:59.450 Let's reveal the top of this list. 776 00:15:59.510 --> 00:16:01.390 What is our count here in the Senate? 777 00:16:01.640 --> 00:16:02.950 da da dun dun dun. 778 00:16:03.049 --> 00:16:03.780 Ah, 779 00:16:04.270 --> 00:16:04.469 Democrats, 780 00:16:04.510 --> 00:16:05.380 52, 781 00:16:06.270 --> 00:16:06.739 Republicans, 782 00:16:07.150 --> 00:16:07.989 48. 783 00:16:08.760 --> 00:16:10.539 Holding up a little bit low, 784 00:16:10.719 --> 00:16:11.030 uh, 785 00:16:11.039 --> 00:16:13.840 for the Republicans in this particular race. 786 00:16:14.039 --> 00:16:15.080 This is the same count, 787 00:16:15.159 --> 00:16:16.020 I believe 788 00:16:16.440 --> 00:16:19.429 that the predic predictable midterm consensus, 789 00:16:19.640 --> 00:16:22.270 our election model showed last week, 790 00:16:22.440 --> 00:16:23.679 52-48, 791 00:16:23.719 --> 00:16:24.080 a slight. 792 00:16:24.275 --> 00:16:24.974 Lean to Democrats, 793 00:16:25.075 --> 00:16:26.815 although you have very close races. 794 00:16:27.784 --> 00:16:29.744 Republicans could easily win Texas, 795 00:16:30.085 --> 00:16:30.424 Maine,

796 00:16:30.984 --> 00:16:31.465 Michigan, 797 00:16:31.724 --> 00:16:32.244 Ohio, 798 00:16:32.325 --> 00:16:32.945 Alaska, 799 00:16:33.364 --> 00:16:33.794 Minnesota. 800 00:16:33.835 --> 00:16:33.965 I mean, 801 00:16:34.005 --> 00:16:35.244 the polling is showing it very close. 802 00:16:35.364 --> 00:16:36.364 I'd be pretty, 803 00:16:36.484 --> 00:16:36.705 uh, 804 00:16:36.744 --> 00:16:37.674 I'd be pretty surprised, 805 00:16:37.724 --> 00:16:38.075 frankly, 806 00:16:38.125 --> 00:16:39.744 if Republicans win in Minnesota. 807 00:16:40.044 --> 00:16:40.325 Um, 808 00:16:40.474 --> 00:16:40.565 you know, 809 00:16:40.645 --> 00:16:41.474 Michelle Tafoy is there, 810 00:16:41.544 --> 00:16:42.525 run a pretty good campaign. 811 00:16:42.604 --> 00:16:44.525 Peggy Flanagan dresses very oddly. 812 00:16:45.460 --> 00:16:46.000 Uh, 813 00:16:47.469 --> 00:16:48.229 Very strange dresser. 814 00:16:48.309 --> 00:16:48.909 You can bring us up, 815 00:16:48.979 --> 00:16:49.179 uh, 816 00:16:49.190 --> 00:16:50.349 back up to the window if you want. 817 00:16:50.419 --> 00:16:50.590 Um, 818 00:16:50.669 --> 00:16:50.950 but, 819 00:16:51.190 --> 00:16:51.409 uh, 820 00:16:51.419 --> 00:16:52.090 bottom line is, 821 00:16:52.109 --> 00:16:52.630 uh, 822 00:16:53.510 --> 00:16:54.549 It's a very close race. 823 00:16:55.770 --> 00:16:56.489 Very close, 824 00:16:56.570 --> 00:16:59.169 and it is 52-48 in that particular measure. 825 00:16:59.289 --> 00:16:59.369 Now, 826 00:16:59.409 --> 00:17:00.479 let me show you the polls, 827 00:17:00.489 --> 00:17:02.140 just so we can get a sense as to where these polls go, 828 00:17:02.169 --> 00:17:02.510 because 829 00:17:02.729 --> 00:17:03.590 one thing I have seen 830 00:17:04.040 --> 00:17:05.229 over the past couple of days, 831 00:17:05.530 --> 00:17:07.689 you can put me in a little window box if you want on some of these, 832 00:17:07.770 --> 00:17:08.560 uh, 833 00:17:08.569 --> 00:17:08.598 uh, 834 00:17:08.608 --> 00:17:08.848 Adam, 835 00:17:08.959 --> 00:17:09.079 uh, 836 00:17:09.130 --> 00:17:09.430 but 837 00:17:09.608 --> 00:17:09.810 they, 838 00:17:09.930 --> 00:17:11.630 they have this situation 839 00:17:12.329 --> 00:17:12.910 where, 840 00:17:13.180 --> 00:17:13.848 uh, 841 00:17:14.170 --> 00:17:14.329 you know, 842 00:17:14.410 --> 00:17:16.229 you have a really weird 843 00:17:16.689 --> 00:17:17.310 vibe 844 00:17:17.410 --> 00:17:17.890 going on. 845 00:17:18.400 --> 00:17:19.560 Because prediction marks, 846 00:17:19.598 --> 00:17:21.229 as I showed you with the Senate Fantasy League, 847 00:17:21.479 --> 00:17:23.900 the Democratic teams are rising to the top. 848 00:17:24.000 --> 00:17:24.920 Over and over and over again, 849 00:17:25.000 --> 00:17:27.180 the Democratic heavy teams are near the top of the list. 850 00:17:28.619 --> 00:17:33.060 Which would indicate movement in the past couple of weeks toward Democrats. 851 00:17:34.400 --> 00:17:36.969 But we're not really seeing that that much in the polls. 852 00:17:37.089 --> 00:17:37.489 Let me show you, 853 00:17:37.689 --> 00:17:39.229 click on Senate at the top here. 854 00:17:39.329 --> 00:17:40.400 We're doing Senate now and, 855 00:17:40.469 --> 00:17:42.180 and we'll come back maybe with the governors here in a little bit, 856 00:17:42.250 --> 00:17:43.569 but this is the Senate races. 857 00:17:43.930 --> 00:17:44.680 If you click on Senate, 858 00:17:44.689 --> 00:17:45.890 this will sort it by the Senate, 859 00:17:45.900 --> 00:17:47.189 and you see Peltola, 860 00:17:47.800 --> 00:17:48.319 um, 861 00:17:48.500 --> 00:17:48.640 uh, 862 00:17:48.729 --> 00:17:49.369 toward the top there. 863 00:17:49.489 --> 00:17:50.729 Peltola up by 2. 864 00:17:50.939 --> 00:17:51.510 That is 865 00:17:51.969 --> 00:17:53.670 probably a good poll 866 00:17:54.250 --> 00:17:55.439 for Republicans. 867 00:17:55.569 --> 00:17:55.729 Uh, 868 00:17:55.810 --> 00:17:58.750 we've seen wider margins in Alaska than just 2 points. 869 00:17:59.160 --> 00:17:59.890 Pretty close. 870 00:18:00.400 --> 00:18:01.579 Then you see Ricketts, 871 00:18:01.760 --> 00:18:02.000 uh, 872 00:18:02.079 --> 00:18:02.719 in Nebraska, 873 00:18:02.920 --> 00:18:04.229 just go looking a few down, 874 00:18:04.479 --> 00:18:05.040 plus 3. 875 00:18:05.160 --> 00:18:05.270 Now, 876 00:18:05.280 --> 00:18:06.719 that is a Republican sponsor, 877 00:18:06.760 --> 00:18:08.939 always important to understand who's taking the poll, 878 00:18:09.439 --> 00:18:11.819 but Ricketts leading by 3 points 879 00:18:12.040 --> 00:18:12.699 in that race, 880 00:18:12.760 --> 00:18:14.579 a pretty good poll for Republicans. 881 00:18:14.880 --> 00:18:15.160 Um, 882 00:18:15.239 --> 00:18:15.760 New Hampshire, 883 00:18:15.920 --> 00:18:16.979 Pappas plus, 884 00:18:17.119 --> 00:18:17.439 what is that, 885 00:18:17.479 --> 00:18:18.119 6 886 00:18:18.400 --> 00:18:19.040 and 7, 887 00:18:19.079 --> 00:18:19.439 depending on, 888 00:18:19.469 --> 00:18:19.750 uh, 889 00:18:19.760 --> 00:18:19.910 who, 890 00:18:20.160 --> 00:18:21.079 what the measure is there, 891 00:18:21.140 --> 00:18:21.390 but 892 00:18:21.670 --> 00:18:22.359 Um, 893 00:18:22.709 --> 00:18:23.609 that is a 894 00:18:24.410 --> 00:18:25.260 bit about average, 895 00:18:25.349 --> 00:18:27.290 maybe a little bit better for Republicans. 896 00:18:27.589 --> 00:18:27.829 Uh, 897 00:18:28.109 --> 00:18:28.500 Sununu, 898 00:18:28.609 --> 00:18:28.790 um, 899 00:18:28.859 --> 00:18:31.609 a little closer than it has been previous polls we've seen. 900 00:18:32.109 --> 00:18:33.800 Then you have Iowa, 901 00:18:33.910 --> 00:18:35.010 Hinson leading. 902 00:18:35.270 --> 00:18:35.739 She's led, 903 00:18:35.949 --> 00:18:36.790 led in some polls, 904 00:18:36.829 --> 00:18:38.500 but trailed in some polls. 905 00:18:38.869 --> 00:18:38.969 Uh, 906 00:18:39.150 --> 00:18:41.719 here she's up by 3 points over Josh Turrick 907 00:18:42.219

--> 00:18:42.750 in Iowa. 908 00:18:42.829 --> 00:18:43.069 Again, 909 00:18:43.510 --> 00:18:44.060 Republican sponsor, 910 00:18:44.109 --> 00:18:45.510 but a good result for Republicans. 911 00:18:45.869 --> 00:18:46.449 Um, 912 00:18:46.589 --> 00:18:47.150 generally speaking, 913 00:18:47.280 --> 00:18:47.910 Montana, 914 00:18:48.030 --> 00:18:48.150 uh, 915 00:18:48.189 --> 00:18:48.439 uh, 916 00:18:48.589 --> 00:18:48.750 is, 917 00:18:48.829 --> 00:18:49.030 uh, 918 00:18:49.150 --> 00:18:50.829 Almay up by 16. 919 00:18:51.459 --> 00:18:53.020 Good result for Republicans from Qantas, 920 00:18:53.390 --> 00:18:54.229 South Dakota, 921 00:18:54.469 --> 00:18:54.589 uh, 922 00:18:54.689 --> 00:18:56.030 Rounds up by 17. 923 00:18:56.229 --> 00:18:56.550 Again, 924 00:18:56.660 --> 00:18:57.750 this is a Rounds poll, 925 00:18:57.829 --> 00:18:59.089 you could take a grain of salt there, 926 00:18:59.109 --> 00:18:59.670 but that's, 927 00:19:00.020 --> 00:19:01.660 A pretty good result for Republicans. 928 00:19:01.989 --> 00:19:02.689 North Carolina, 929 00:19:02.910 --> 00:19:04.170 Cooper up by 11, 930 00:19:04.390 --> 00:19:05.699 about where we've expected it, 931 00:19:05.750 --> 00:19:07.729 maybe a little bit leaning toward Democrats there 932 00:19:07.949 --> 00:19:10.469 as far as where we've seen recent polling go. 933 00:19:10.670 --> 00:19:11.270 Alabama, 934 00:19:11.280 --> 00:19:12.109 Moore up by 21, 935 00:19:12.189 --> 00:19:12.949 should win easily there. 936 00:19:13.069 --> 00:19:16.069 Reed up by 23 for the Democrats in Rhode Island and blah, 937 00:19:16.079 --> 00:19:16.310 blah, 938 00:19:16.349 --> 00:19:16.869 blah blah blah. 939 00:19:16.969 --> 00:19:17.510 Markey way up, 940 00:19:17.569 --> 00:19:18.369 we know that. 941 00:19:18.680 --> 00:19:19.020 Um, 942 00:19:19.229 --> 00:19:20.390 Sherrod Brown up by 4, 943 00:19:20.469 --> 00:19:21.609 a smaller 944 00:19:21.949 --> 00:19:23.579 lead than we've seen recently. 945 00:19:23.869 --> 00:19:25.469 Henson again leading in the next poll, 946 00:19:25.579 --> 00:19:25.770 uh, 947 00:19:25.949 --> 00:19:27.630 Florida Republicans leading. 948 00:19:27.910 --> 00:19:28.189 Um, 949 00:19:28.270 --> 00:19:30.479 Ossoff up by 7 is about where that one's been. 950 00:19:30.560 --> 00:19:30.810 So, 951 00:19:30.979 --> 00:19:31.939 bottom line is, 952 00:19:32.560 --> 00:19:33.910 over the past couple of weeks, 953 00:19:33.959 --> 00:19:34.880 the polling. 954 00:19:36.040 --> 00:19:37.459 Has been relatively stable. 955 00:19:37.640 --> 00:19:38.020 If 956 00:19:38.680 --> 00:19:38.819 anything, 957 00:19:38.880 --> 00:19:41.359 I would say it's slightly leaned towards Republicans. 958 00:19:41.400 --> 00:19:43.130 It's moved towards Republicans, 959 00:19:43.199 --> 00:19:44.160 the slightest amount. 960 00:19:44.439 --> 00:19:44.550 Now, 961 00:19:44.560 --> 00:19:45.819 I wouldn't go crazy with that. 962 00:19:46.079 --> 00:19:46.689 I wouldn't say that, 963

00:19:46.839 --> 00:19:47.079 oh gosh, 964 00:19:47.400 --> 00:19:48.439 Republicans have tons of momentum. 965 00:19:48.520 --> 00:19:49.319 I wouldn't say that's true, 966 00:19:49.400 --> 00:19:49.699 but 967 00:19:50.040 --> 00:19:51.900 what I will say is I don't see the evidence 968 00:19:52.319 --> 00:19:55.739 for movement in prediction markets toward Democrats 969 00:19:55.959 --> 00:19:57.189 at the levels we've seen it. 970 00:19:57.949 --> 00:20:01.699 And what's interesting about that is I think there's a couple of explanations. 971 00:20:02.560 --> 00:20:04.260 And they're more internal 972 00:20:04.719 --> 00:20:05.949 prediction market, 973 00:20:06.280 --> 00:20:06.750 uh, 974 00:20:06.760 --> 00:20:08.660 explanations than they are, 975 00:20:08.959 --> 00:20:09.420 um, 976 00:20:10.079 --> 00:20:11.579 outside election 977 00:20:11.880 --> 00:20:14.219 type of um relationships. 978 00:20:14.680 --> 00:20:15.349 First of all, 979 00:20:15.599 --> 00:20:17.819 we are now starting to see money 980 00:20:18.479 --> 00:20:19.959 really flowing into these markets. 981 00:20:20.040 --> 00:20:21.099 We're 2 weeks away. 982 00:20:21.579 --> 00:20:24.219 We saw this constantly through the primary process where people, 983 00:20:24.339 --> 00:20:25.660 there would be tons of money in, 984 00:20:25.780 --> 00:20:25.930 you know, 985 00:20:26.099 --> 00:20:27.319 two states that had primaries. 986 00:20:27.660 --> 00:20:29.900 The money would uh resolve from that primary, 987 00:20:29.959 --> 00:20:31.180 they'd move to the next primary. 988 00:20:31.260 --> 00:20:34.170 We saw that over and over and over again to a point that during primary season, 989 00:20:34.219 --> 00:20:36.920 we started trying to get ahead of those primaries a little bit more 990 00:20:37.099 --> 00:20:38.170 to catch more value. 991 00:20:38.739 --> 00:20:38.880 Because, 992 00:20:39.060 --> 00:20:39.380 uh, 993 00:20:39.469 --> 00:20:41.239 you'd see these favorites, 994 00:20:41.500 --> 00:20:43.099 maybe they should have been 92%, 995 00:20:43.180 --> 00:20:44.400 91% favorites, 996 00:20:45.260 --> 00:20:48.020 constantly cracking in at 98% and 99%. 997 00:20:48.829 --> 00:20:51.140 Eliminating all the value from the heavy favorites. 998 00:20:51.260 --> 00:20:54.099 That's because money was flowing in from big time players, 999 00:20:54.380 --> 00:20:54.579 right? 1000 00:20:54.859 --> 00:20:55.790 Moving the markets 1001 00:20:55.890 --> 00:20:56.719 a few points 1002 00:20:56.939 --> 00:20:59.439 and making those favorites a little bit more of a sure thing 1003 00:20:59.979 --> 00:21:01.020 than they otherwise would be. 1004 00:21:01.939 --> 00:21:04.920 I think that's starting to happen in these big election markets now. 1005 00:21:05.140 --> 00:21:08.020 We're starting to see a point where I think I'm starting to see things, 1006 00:21:08.180 --> 00:21:08.369 uh, 1007 00:21:08.430 --> 00:21:09.260 people who are. 1008 00:21:09.699 --> 00:21:09.900 You know,

1009 00:21:10.089 --> 00:21:11.800 should be around 90%, 1010 00:21:12.280 --> 00:21:13.400 92% 1011 00:21:13.660 --> 00:21:14.619 showing up at 95%, 1012 00:21:14.699 --> 00:21:15.219 96, 1013 00:21:15.280 --> 00:21:15.890 97%. 1014 00:21:16.180 --> 00:21:17.260 People who should be, 1015 00:21:17.380 --> 00:21:17.420 uh, 1016 00:21:17.500 --> 00:21:17.619 you know, 1017 00:21:17.660 --> 00:21:17.739 I, 1018 00:21:17.839 --> 00:21:18.260 I'll give you those, 1019 00:21:18.329 --> 00:21:18.910 some of those races, 1020 00:21:19.010 --> 00:21:20.849 those mid-level races for Democrats, 1021 00:21:20.900 --> 00:21:22.319 the Peeltolas of the world, 1022 00:21:22.579 --> 00:21:22.859 um, 1023 00:21:23.020 --> 00:21:23.219 you know, 1024 00:21:23.420 --> 00:21:24.380 Sherrod Browns of the world. 1025 00:21:24.459 --> 00:21:26.699 Like Sherrod Brown's polling has not necessarily 1026 00:21:26.699 --> 00:21:27.969 improved over the past couple of weeks. 1027 00:21:28.260 --> 00:21:30.760 Yet his numbers on prediction markets are up considerably. 1028 00:21:31.060 --> 00:21:32.680 I know that he's on my fantasy team. 1029 00:21:32.939 --> 00:21:33.319 Um, 1030 00:21:33.459 --> 00:21:33.849 uh, 1031 00:21:34.020 --> 00:21:34.619 Peltola, 1032 00:21:34.890 --> 00:21:35.300 same story. 1033 00:21:35.380 --> 00:21:35.979 El Sayed, 1034 00:21:36.140 --> 00:21:36.839 same story. 1035 00:21:37.300 --> 00:21:38.949 Their polling hasn't gotten any better. 1036 00:21:39.819 --> 00:21:43.140 There's no real external reason for these markets to be 1037 00:21:43.140 --> 00:21:45.400 moving except that just money starting to settle in, 1038 00:21:45.619 --> 00:21:48.060 in places where people believe the winner's going to be. 1039 00:21:48.500 --> 00:21:50.479 We are getting a lot of internal polling as well. 1040 00:21:50.699 --> 00:21:52.859 You're starting to see the rating agencies, 1041 00:21:52.939 --> 00:21:53.420 if you will, 1042 00:21:53.540 --> 00:21:53.739 the, 1043 00:21:53.819 --> 00:21:54.060 uh, 1044 00:21:54.170 --> 00:21:54.569 the sites, 1045 00:21:54.619 --> 00:21:56.130 the Cook Politicals and the, 1046 00:21:56.229 --> 00:21:59.219 the crystal the uh Sabato's crystal ball. 1047 00:21:59.459 --> 00:22:01.829 They're starting to move more races towards Democrats. 1048 00:22:02.130 --> 00:22:03.439 That's kind of part of it too. 1049 00:22:03.780 --> 00:22:03.939 Um, 1050 00:22:03.979 --> 00:22:06.449 you're seeing these prediction models start to move this as well, 1051 00:22:06.500 --> 00:22:07.800 and that's another big part of this. 1052 00:22:09.270 --> 00:22:11.270 We have the predictable midterm consensus. 1053 00:22:11.349 --> 00:22:12.750 It is a kind of a, 1054 00:22:12.829 --> 00:22:14.329 a consensus view of 1055 00:22:14.550 --> 00:22:18.219 all sorts of different measures from election models to prediction or to, 1056 00:22:18.229 --> 00:22:18.339 uh, 1057 00:22:18.349 --> 00:22:18.430 not, 1058 00:22:18.469 --> 00:22:19.229 not prediction models, 1059 00:22:19.300 --> 00:22:19.439 uh, 1060 00:22:19.469 --> 00:22:20.329 prediction data. 1061 00:22:20.709 --> 00:22:20.890 Uh, 1062 00:22:21.109 --> 00:22:23.089 we left that out intentionally so you can look at 1063 00:22:23.189 --> 00:22:23.459 the, 1064 00:22:23.550 --> 00:22:24.869 the other data against that. 1065 00:22:25.229 --> 00:22:25.430 Um, 1066 00:22:25.469 --> 00:22:26.180 but you've got, 1067 00:22:26.189 --> 00:22:26.630 uh, 1068 00:22:26.670 --> 00:22:27.339 election modeling, 1069 00:22:27.410 --> 00:22:27.890 you've got, 1070 00:22:27.910 --> 00:22:27.920 uh, 1071 00:22:27.939 --> 00:22:28.849 uh, 1072 00:22:28.859 --> 00:22:29.869 polling averages, 1073 00:22:30.030 --> 00:22:31.390 you've got fundamentals and, 1074 00:22:31.469 --> 00:22:33.459 and history and all the things, 1075 00:22:33.469 --> 00:22:34.109 fundraising 1076 00:22:34.310 --> 00:22:35.010 that make up 1077 00:22:35.349 --> 00:22:37.229 the picture of any given election. 1078 00:22:37.430 --> 00:22:38.729 And we put those all together in one place. 1079 00:22:40.339 --> 00:22:42.290 In there are prediction models, 1080 00:22:42.500 --> 00:22:43.900 and these prediction modelers, 1081 00:22:44.060 --> 00:22:46.300 really smart people who crunch this data for a living. 1082 00:22:47.219 --> 00:22:47.739 Uh, 1083 00:22:47.979 --> 00:22:49.540 there's a wide gap between them, 1084 00:22:49.619 --> 00:22:49.939 however, 1085 00:22:50.060 --> 00:22:53.060 some people say the House is a 99% chance for Democrats, 1086 00:22:53.140 --> 00:22:54.810 some people say it's 70%. 1087 00:22:55.140 --> 00:22:56.680 Some people say it's 65%. 1088 00:22:56.939 --> 00:22:57.780 And that's pretty low. 1089 00:22:57.859 --> 00:22:58.449 But generally speaking, 1090 00:22:58.500 --> 00:23:00.660 there's some people in the 70s all the way up to 99%. 1091 00:23:02.489 --> 00:23:03.010 We take that, 1092 00:23:03.130 --> 00:23:03.800 put it all together, 1093 00:23:03.810 --> 00:23:05.119 so you get one set number. 1094 00:23:05.199 --> 00:23:07.560 But one of the things that's happening with these prediction markets, 1095 00:23:07.729 --> 00:23:07.890 um, 1096 00:23:07.969 --> 00:23:08.290 excuse me, 1097 00:23:08.369 --> 00:23:08.550 the, 1098 00:23:08.560 --> 00:23:09.280 uh, 1099 00:23:09.290 --> 00:23:10.109 election models right now. 1100 00:23:10.920 --> 00:23:11.550 Is 1101 00:23:12.650 --> 00:23:12.989 They, 1102 00:23:13.130 --> 00:23:14.510 they all take into account. 1103 00:23:15.969 --> 00:23:16.869 History, 1104 00:23:17.530 --> 00:23:18.449 fundamentals. 1105 00:23:19.099 --> 00:23:19.579 Um, 1106 00:23:19.939 --> 00:23:20.199 everything 1107 00:23:20.369 --> 00:23:21.550 other than polling, 1108 00:23:22.079 --> 00:23:23.979 a bunch of different measures that and, 1109 00:23:24.089 --> 00:23:24.209 and, 1110 00:23:24.250 --> 00:23:25.680 and then also the polls. 1111 00:23:25.869 --> 00:23:26.979 So it takes both of those things out. 1112

00:23:27.060 --> 00:23:27.979 It's not just a polling average, 1113 00:23:28.060 --> 00:23:29.079 they're putting a lot more into it. 1114 00:23:30.069 --> 00:23:30.599 And 1115 00:23:30.880 --> 00:23:33.099 what's fascinating about that 1116 00:23:33.319 --> 00:23:33.910 is that 1117 00:23:34.280 --> 00:23:34.750 that 1118 00:23:34.920 --> 00:23:35.920 uh percentage, 1119 00:23:36.000 --> 00:23:36.780 the split, 1120 00:23:36.880 --> 00:23:37.430 when you're very, 1121 00:23:37.520 --> 00:23:39.079 very early before there's any polling at all, 1122 00:23:39.140 --> 00:23:40.189 it's all fundamentals, 1123 00:23:40.400 --> 00:23:40.819 right? 1124 00:23:41.270 --> 00:23:42.359 As more polling comes in, 1125 00:23:42.430 --> 00:23:43.310 it starts to move. 1126 00:23:43.359 --> 00:23:46.099 The balance of an election model moves 1127 00:23:46.479 --> 00:23:49.439 from focusing on fundamentals when you're far away from an election, 1128 00:23:49.800 --> 00:23:51.859 to focusing on polling more 1129 00:23:52.000 --> 00:23:52.719 as you get closer, 1130 00:23:52.839 --> 00:23:54.859 because the idea is the polling's more accurate 1131 00:23:54.859 --> 00:23:56.280 because the election's right around the corner. 1132 00:23:57.020 --> 00:23:58.239 That is happening right now 1133 00:23:58.579 --> 00:24:00.599 in these election models where 1134 00:24:01.060 --> 00:24:01.819 over time, 1135 00:24:01.930 --> 00:24:03.800 polling is a much bigger factor 1136 00:24:03.939 --> 00:24:05.510 than what you believe about the states. 1137 00:24:05.579 --> 00:24:07.060 If you go back a couple of months, 1138 00:24:07.339 --> 00:24:09.359 what you see is you might see the same polling, 1139 00:24:09.660 --> 00:24:10.219 but people are like, 1140 00:24:10.300 --> 00:24:10.770 well, 1141 00:24:11.020 --> 00:24:12.819 no one ever wins in Kansas as a Democrat, 1142 00:24:12.939 --> 00:24:13.420 so, 1143 00:24:13.540 --> 00:24:13.660 you know, 1144 00:24:14.020 --> 00:24:15.160 Republicans are heavily favored. 1145 00:24:15.540 --> 00:24:18.510 Even though the polling hasn't moved that much in Kansas, 1146 00:24:18.819 --> 00:24:20.780 what we are seeing now is 1147 00:24:21.020 --> 00:24:23.180 the election models moving toward. 1148 00:24:23.560 --> 00:24:24.109 Uh, 1149 00:24:24.170 --> 00:24:24.369 Democrats. 1150 00:24:24.439 --> 00:24:24.729 And if you, 1151 00:24:24.810 --> 00:24:25.239 if you say, 1152 00:24:25.300 --> 00:24:25.489 well, 1153 00:24:25.660 --> 00:24:25.760 well, 1154 00:24:25.839 --> 00:24:26.270 wait a minute, 1155 00:24:27.369 --> 00:24:27.880 so what? 1156 00:24:28.130 --> 00:24:28.449 Why? 1157 00:24:28.609 --> 00:24:30.270 Cause it's moving towards that polling. 1158 00:24:30.729 --> 00:24:31.150 And 1159 00:24:31.569 --> 00:24:32.520 the reason that is, 1160 00:24:32.530 --> 00:24:33.160 uh, 1161 00:24:33.170 --> 00:24:36.069 important to you if you're on these prediction markets 1162 00:24:36.410 --> 00:24:36.949 is 1163 00:24:37.290 -->

00:24:39.609 those are very influential to the markets. 1164 00:24:40.400 --> 00:24:42.530 The markets are looking to synthesize data. 1165 00:24:42.699 --> 00:24:44.910 Prediction markets are what you're trying to do. 1166 00:24:45.209 --> 00:24:45.569 What 1167 00:24:45.689 --> 00:24:47.630 the data is doing for you 1168 00:24:48.199 --> 00:24:50.770 is synthesizing everything into one place, 1169 00:24:50.849 --> 00:24:51.489 into one number, 1170 00:24:51.569 --> 00:24:52.609 so you can understand it better. 1171 00:24:52.689 --> 00:24:53.910 That's why these things are so great, 1172 00:24:53.969 --> 00:24:55.150 to help you understand 1173 00:24:55.290 --> 00:24:56.400 what's going on in the world, 1174 00:24:56.410 --> 00:24:58.650 because they're taking all available information and synthesizing, 1175 00:24:58.760 --> 00:24:59.680 crystallizing it 1176 00:24:59.810 --> 00:25:00.479 into one 1177 00:25:01.130 --> 00:25:02.790 available number that everybody can access, 1178 00:25:02.930 --> 00:25:03.209 by the way, 1179 00:25:03.329 --> 00:25:04.150 for free. 1180 00:25:04.650 --> 00:25:07.199 You get this information for free from Calshi. 1181 00:25:07.849 --> 00:25:08.099 Um, 1182 00:25:08.170 --> 00:25:11.000 and that is a great tool for you to understand the world better, 1183 00:25:11.219 --> 00:25:14.979 but that is part of the reason why these markets are moving toward 1184 00:25:14.979 --> 00:25:17.319 Democrats right now and why if you're in the Senate Fantasy League, 1185 00:25:17.420 --> 00:25:18.599 and you got a bunch of Democrats, 1186 00:25:18.650 --> 00:25:20.400 and you're at them and you're on your high horse. 1187 00:25:23.260 --> 00:25:24.880 That's what he's seeing right now. 1188 00:25:25.420 --> 00:25:28.130 It is partially because people believe the Democratic year is here, 1189 00:25:28.319 --> 00:25:28.479 right? 1190 00:25:28.550 --> 00:25:30.619 And that's probably true at some level. 1191 00:25:30.939 --> 00:25:33.459 It is partially because the polls are pretty good for Democrats, 1192 00:25:33.579 --> 00:25:35.459 but they're not moving necessarily toward them. 1193 00:25:36.130 --> 00:25:38.550 And it's partially because a bunch of money 1194 00:25:38.810 --> 00:25:40.569 is coming into these markets right now, 1195 00:25:40.890 --> 00:25:41.719 looking for favorites, 1196 00:25:41.849 --> 00:25:42.859 looking to take a couple, 1197 00:25:43.010 --> 00:25:43.170 you know, 1198 00:25:43.209 --> 00:25:43.449 10, 1199 00:25:43.560 --> 00:25:44.520 12% 1200 00:25:44.810 --> 00:25:46.410 on a two-week uh timeline. 1201 00:25:47.280 --> 00:25:48.400 And then also, 1202 00:25:48.410 --> 00:25:49.670 you have the situation where these 1203 00:25:50.449 --> 00:25:51.469 election modelers 1204 00:25:51.699 --> 00:25:51.920 are, 1205 00:25:51.969 --> 00:25:54.670 are starting to emphasize just straight polling, 1206 00:25:55.089 --> 00:25:56.530 cause you look at a place like Kansas, 1207 00:25:56.540 --> 00:25:56.689

where, 1208 00:25:56.780 --> 00:25:56.930 you know, 1209 00:25:57.010 --> 00:25:58.760 Hamilton might lead by 1 or 2 points, 1210 00:25:59.010 --> 00:25:59.250 and you say, 1211 00:25:59.329 --> 00:25:59.410 well, 1212 00:25:59.449 --> 00:26:00.290 he's leading the polling, 1213 00:26:00.420 --> 00:26:01.209 so he should be ahead. 1214 00:26:01.930 --> 00:26:05.969 Prediction markets and also election models take into account a lot more than that, 1215 00:26:06.140 --> 00:26:07.880 and they are moving things 1216 00:26:08.140 --> 00:26:10.060 toward those directions and holding back from 1217 00:26:10.060 --> 00:26:12.040 like giving Hamilton a lead in that race 1218 00:26:12.660 --> 00:26:13.459 because they're saying, 1219 00:26:13.579 --> 00:26:13.699 well, 1220 00:26:13.780 --> 00:26:14.140 wait a minute, 1221 00:26:14.260 --> 00:26:17.829 Kansas hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932. 1222 00:26:18.300 --> 00:26:20.000 Should we be taking this seriously? 1223 00:26:21.000 --> 00:26:21.859 That's the game. 1224 00:26:22.079 --> 00:26:22.959 That's why I love these things. 1225 00:26:23.000 --> 00:26:24.469 It's figuring all of that out, 1226 00:26:25.040 --> 00:26:26.140 understanding all that data, 1227 00:26:26.359 --> 00:26:27.709 bringing it down in your own mind and saying, 1228 00:26:27.770 --> 00:26:27.890 well, 1229 00:26:27.959 --> 00:26:28.310 wait a minute, 1230 00:26:28.400 --> 00:26:30.060 where is the weakness in this market? 1231 00:26:30.640 --> 00:26:31.880 I think they're wrong in this state, 1232 00:26:31.959 --> 00:26:32.319 in this state, 1233 00:26:32.390 --> 00:26:32.790 in this state. 1234 00:26:32.839 --> 00:26:33.599 I think they're right here, 1235 00:26:33.680 --> 00:26:34.459 here and here. 1236 00:26:35.260 --> 00:26:35.930 Going in there, 1237 00:26:36.170 --> 00:26:37.069 finding the value 1238 00:26:37.369 --> 00:26:38.810 and profiting a little bit off of, 1239 00:26:38.900 --> 00:26:39.020 uh, 1240 00:26:39.089 --> 00:26:39.280 of, 1241 00:26:39.469 --> 00:26:40.400 of these politicians. 1242 00:26:40.489 --> 00:26:41.329 God knows they've been, 1243 00:26:41.489 --> 00:26:41.650 you know, 1244 00:26:41.810 --> 00:26:42.930 profiting off of you 1245 00:26:43.250 --> 00:26:44.310 your entire life. 1246 00:26:44.689 --> 00:26:46.489 It's about time you turn the tables a little bit on them, 1247 00:26:46.569 --> 00:26:47.069 don't you think? 1248 00:26:47.670 --> 00:26:48.300 All these tools, 1249 00:26:48.310 --> 00:26:48.520 by the way, 1250 00:26:48.589 --> 00:26:49.290 are available 1251 00:26:49.430 --> 00:26:50.010 for free 1252 00:26:50.310 --> 00:26:52.489 at predictableshow.com. 1253 00:26:52.589 --> 00:26:53.989 Become a free subscriber. 1254 00:26:54.229 --> 00:26:54.819 Just get on, 1255 00:26:55.030 --> 00:26:55.229 get on, 1256 00:26:55.430 --> 00:26:55.910 get on board. 1257 00:26:55.969 --> 00:26:57.040 It's a great community. 1258 00:26:57.229 --> 00:26:58.390 You get the free chat,

1259 00:26:58.540 --> 00:26:59.859 you get the free emails, 1260 00:27:00.040 --> 00:27:00.660 you get the, 1261 00:27:00.670 --> 00:27:00.900 uh, 1262 00:27:00.910 --> 00:27:03.770 all these tools that I'm talking about at predictableShow.com. 1263 00:27:03.989 --> 00:27:06.420 And then if you wanna upgrade and get all the individual Senate races, 1264 00:27:06.469 --> 00:27:07.319 you can do that well, 1265 00:27:07.469 --> 00:27:07.790 as well, 1266 00:27:07.869 --> 00:27:09.569 plus a free stream of the show. 1267 00:27:09.709 --> 00:27:11.069 I answer your questions all the time, 1268 00:27:11.140 --> 00:27:11.959 all sorts of cool stuff. 1269 00:27:12.310 --> 00:27:13.829 If you wanna be a premium subscriber. 1270 00:27:13.989 --> 00:27:14.739 I would highly 1271 00:27:15.400 --> 00:27:16.520 Highly encourage that. 1272 00:27:16.849 --> 00:27:18.750 That would be at predictableShow.com. 1273 00:27:19.130 --> 00:27:19.349 Uh, 1274 00:27:19.369 --> 00:27:19.880 just join up. 1275 00:27:19.930 --> 00:27:20.640 You can do it by the month, 1276 00:27:20.650 --> 00:27:21.369 you can do it by the year, 1277 00:27:21.410 --> 00:27:22.130 whatever you want. 1278 00:27:22.489 --> 00:27:24.750 And Senate Fantasy.com is free. 1279 00:27:25.239 --> 00:27:26.880 There's thousands of dollars on the line. 1280 00:27:26.959 --> 00:27:28.709 You can win $2500 for winning this thing. 1281 00:27:28.839 --> 00:27:31.589 And $2500 will go a long way to fund your prediction, 1282 00:27:31.900 --> 00:27:32.109 uh, 1283 00:27:32.119 --> 00:27:32.939 market account 1284 00:27:33.170 --> 00:27:35.219 and grow that even bigger on the show. 1285 00:27:35.479 --> 00:27:35.680 Uh, 1286 00:27:35.760 --> 00:27:36.420 you can also, 1287 00:27:36.479 --> 00:27:36.869 um, 1288 00:27:37.160 --> 00:27:37.219 you, 1289 00:27:37.280 --> 00:27:39.579 you can donate it to some worthy charity, 1290 00:27:39.890 --> 00:27:40.079 um, 1291 00:27:40.199 --> 00:27:41.550 or you can donate it to, 1292 00:27:41.640 --> 00:27:41.829 um, 1293 00:27:41.900 --> 00:27:43.520 your spouse who wants something nice for, 1294 00:27:43.599 --> 00:27:44.160 for Christmas. 1295 00:27:44.359 --> 00:27:45.209 Whatever you wanna do. 1296 00:27:45.900 --> 00:27:47.359 You can also just keep it and pocket it. 1297 00:27:47.819 --> 00:27:48.040 Frankly, 1298 00:27:48.109 --> 00:27:49.020 you can do whatever you want with the money, 1299 00:27:49.060 --> 00:27:51.119 but you can win it at Senatefantassy.com. 1300 00:27:51.300 --> 00:27:51.420 All right, 1301 00:27:51.500 --> 00:27:52.939 gotta take a break back in a second with more. 1302 00:28:08.910 --> 00:28:09.869 Spent a lot of time on the Senate, 1303 00:28:09.910 --> 00:28:10.189 and that's, 1304 00:28:10.300 --> 00:28:10.430 you know, 1305 00:28:10.510 --> 00:28:10.520 we, 1306 00:28:10.739 --> 00:28:11.609 it's that kind of 1307 00:28:11.829 --> 00:28:13.089 marquee thing. 1308 00:28:13.430 --> 00:28:14.670 It's with prediction markets though, 1309 00:28:14.750 --> 00:28:15.500 it's diff different, 1310 00:28:15.569 --> 00:28:15.699 right? 1311 00:28:15.750 --> 00:28:18.530 Like it's not just about what is the biggest news topic 1312 00:28:18.869 --> 00:28:20.550 or what's the thing that you're looking for. 1313 00:28:20.670 --> 00:28:21.050 Also, 1314 00:28:21.229 --> 00:28:23.430 there's a lot of races that are under the radar where you can 1315 00:28:23.430 --> 00:28:26.430 make more profit and so we wanna focus on those as well. 1316 00:28:26.550 --> 00:28:27.069 We got a lot to, 1317 00:28:27.199 --> 00:28:29.300 we got a lot on our plate here at predictable with Stu. 1318 00:28:29.709 --> 00:28:29.760 Uh, 1319 00:28:29.790 --> 00:28:32.979 that's why we also have predictableShow.com to get into a lot of that extra stuff, 1320 00:28:33.060 --> 00:28:33.280 but 1321 00:28:33.609 --> 00:28:34.550 I wanted to highlight something, 1322 00:28:34.609 --> 00:28:34.689 uh, 1323 00:28:34.729 --> 00:28:36.050 this is from Decision desk, 1324 00:28:36.130 --> 00:28:36.250 uh, 1325 00:28:36.290 --> 00:28:39.109 they did a really good job with election data which states 1326 00:28:39.400 --> 00:28:41.489 will split tickets for Senate and governor, 1327 00:28:41.569 --> 00:28:43.030 and this is an interesting thing because. 1328 00:28:43.920 --> 00:28:45.709 I am depending on this happening 1329 00:28:46.010 --> 00:28:46.699 multiple times. 1330 00:28:46.770 --> 00:28:47.369 I think it will, 1331 00:28:47.449 --> 00:28:47.849 and it's, 1332 00:28:47.900 --> 00:28:50.630 what's weird about that is it almost never occurs anymore. 1333 00:28:51.010 --> 00:28:51.479 What this means, 1334 00:28:51.489 --> 00:28:51.689 of course, 1335 00:28:51.729 --> 00:28:53.369 is when you're talking about a Senate and a governor, 1336 00:28:53.439 --> 00:28:54.689 are they from the same party or not? 1337 00:28:54.849 --> 00:28:58.319 Do you have one like a Democratic senator and a Republican governor or vice versa? 1338 00:28:58.719 --> 00:28:59.250 It's very, 1339 00:28:59.329 --> 00:29:01.709 very rare as we've grown into a more partisan era, 1340 00:29:01.969 --> 00:29:03.680 as people are more focused on politics, 1341 00:29:04.209 --> 00:29:05.829 there's just a lot less 1342 00:29:06.170 --> 00:29:08.829 of that type of activity going on 1343 00:29:09.130 --> 00:29:10.650 where you have those splits. 1344 00:29:11.199 --> 00:29:12.530 And just to show you a quick, 1345 00:29:12.540 --> 00:29:12.640 uh, 1346 00:29:12.650 --> 00:29:12.969 graph, 1347 00:29:13.010 --> 00:29:13.589 this is from, 1348 00:29:13.609 --> 00:29:14.199 uh, 1349 00:29:14.209 --> 00:29:14.869 DDHQ. 1350 00:29:15.569 --> 00:29:15.760 Um, 1351 00:29:15.810 --> 00:29:17.050 you'll notice the splits, 1352 00:29:17.170 --> 00:29:18.930 split tickets going back to 1990, 1353 00:29:19.000 --> 00:29:19.250 you see, 1354 00:29:19.359 --> 00:29:20.569 you see it more often. 1355 00:29:20.689 --> 00:29:20.930 It's, 1356 00:29:21.010 --> 00:29:22.319

it was never super common, 1357 00:29:22.369 --> 00:29:23.510 at least in recent history, 1358 00:29:23.930 --> 00:29:24.969 but there used to be 34, 1359 00:29:25.089 --> 00:29:26.109 5% of the vote 1360 00:29:26.449 --> 00:29:28.189 where you'd see a little bit of a split. 1361 00:29:28.849 --> 00:29:29.160 Now, 1362 00:29:29.170 --> 00:29:31.530 the projections here look like it could be the smallest gap, 1363 00:29:31.560 --> 00:29:33.229 at least since 2014. 1364 00:29:33.849 --> 00:29:33.979 Uh, 1365 00:29:34.050 --> 00:29:34.969 on the record, 1366 00:29:35.060 --> 00:29:35.469 and 1367 00:29:35.719 --> 00:29:35.969 so you, 1368 00:29:36.060 --> 00:29:36.260 you, 1369 00:29:36.420 --> 00:29:40.020 what you're expecting here is people to vote all Republican or all Democrat, 1370 00:29:40.339 --> 00:29:41.479 not splitting that ticket 1371 00:29:41.930 --> 00:29:42.660 with one or the other. 1372 00:29:42.750 --> 00:29:43.060 Now, 1373 00:29:43.180 --> 00:29:46.979 there are several races where there's a real possibility of a split ticket. 1374 00:29:47.060 --> 00:29:47.349 Here's, 1375 00:29:47.410 --> 00:29:47.589 uh, 1376 00:29:47.699 --> 00:29:47.890 the, 1377 00:29:48.040 --> 00:29:48.839 the breakdown. 1378 00:29:49.660 --> 00:29:53.239 The same party clearly favored in 18 of the 25 states, 1379 00:29:53.439 --> 00:29:53.930 um, 1380 00:29:54.219 --> 00:29:56.010 that are doing both races. 1381 00:29:56.339 --> 00:29:56.540 Uh, 1382 00:29:56.619 --> 00:29:59.020 and this is what this kind of looks like. 1383 00:29:59.140 --> 00:30:00.239 You see a gap, 1384 00:30:00.819 --> 00:30:01.319 uh, 1385 00:30:01.339 --> 00:30:01.510 between, 1386 00:30:01.609 --> 00:30:02.939 when you see those long gaps, 1387 00:30:02.979 --> 00:30:04.540 and I'll explain this for those on podcasts, 1388 00:30:04.619 --> 00:30:04.780 the, 1389 00:30:04.859 --> 00:30:07.739 the wide gaps between the two dots on this chart 1390 00:30:07.930 --> 00:30:09.650 indicates a most likely, 1391 00:30:09.660 --> 00:30:10.359 uh, 1392 00:30:10.650 --> 00:30:11.729 situation to split. 1393 00:30:11.939 --> 00:30:12.810 New Hampshire is the, 1394 00:30:12.939 --> 00:30:14.060 by far the biggest one. 1395 00:30:14.339 --> 00:30:16.500 We have a heavily favored Republican Governor, 1396 00:30:16.540 --> 00:30:17.219 Kelly Ayotte. 1397 00:30:17.670 --> 00:30:22.280 And a heavily favored Democratic senator in Chris Pappas over John Sununu. 1398 00:30:22.800 --> 00:30:22.920 Uh, 1399 00:30:23.000 --> 00:30:23.199 you know, 1400 00:30:23.310 --> 00:30:24.369 that might not happen. 1401 00:30:24.469 --> 00:30:24.920 Uh, 1402 00:30:25.000 --> 00:30:26.339 either one of those could potentially fail, 1403 00:30:26.410 --> 00:30:27.640 but that's the biggest split, 1404 00:30:27.800 --> 00:30:29.979 the most likely split ticket that we have. 1405 00:30:30.319 --> 00:30:31.000 Georgia, 1406 00:30:31.229 --> 00:30:31.439 uh, 1407 00:30:31.599 --> 00:30:32.390 likely as well, 1408 00:30:32.400 --> 00:30:32.959 where you have, 1409 00:30:33.000 --> 00:30:33.280 um, 1410 00:30:33.390 --> 00:30:33.479 uh, 1411 00:30:33.560 --> 00:30:34.780 Ossoff and Jackson. 1412 00:30:35.390 --> 00:30:35.630 Uh, 1413 00:30:35.790 --> 00:30:35.910 the, 1414 00:30:35.989 --> 00:30:37.650 the favorites in those races, 1415 00:30:37.949 --> 00:30:38.270 um, 1416 00:30:38.510 --> 00:30:39.699 also have a heavy favorite, 1417 00:30:39.869 --> 00:30:40.140 really, 1418 00:30:40.150 --> 00:30:40.430 uh, 1419 00:30:40.510 --> 00:30:40.819 you know, 1420 00:30:40.969 --> 00:30:41.270 uh, 1421 00:30:41.430 --> 00:30:41.829 uh, 1422 00:30:42.030 --> 00:30:42.180 you know, 1423 00:30:42.260 --> 00:30:44.390 a fifty-fifty race basically for governor there. 1424 00:30:44.829 --> 00:30:45.229 Maine, 1425 00:30:45.349 --> 00:30:47.829 you have a heavy favorite in the governor's race, 1426 00:30:48.130 --> 00:30:50.170 a fifty-fifty race in the Senate. 1427 00:30:50.630 --> 00:30:50.750 Uh, 1428 00:30:50.849 --> 00:30:51.329 Iowa, 1429 00:30:51.430 --> 00:30:52.140 you have a, 1430 00:30:52.270 --> 00:30:52.420 uh, 1431 00:30:52.560 --> 00:30:55.670 a Democratic favorite in the governor's race, 1432 00:30:55.910 --> 00:30:57.969 and a fifty-fifty race in the Senate. 1433 00:30:58.390 --> 00:30:58.839 Um, 1434 00:30:59.310 --> 00:30:59.750 Alaska, 1435 00:30:59.910 --> 00:31:00.069 pretty, 1436 00:31:00.189 --> 00:31:01.949 they're pretty close to split both ways, 1437 00:31:02.030 --> 00:31:02.989 could really go either way. 1438 00:31:03.069 --> 00:31:04.609 Both races are very close there. 1439 00:31:05.030 --> 00:31:05.160 Uh, 1440 00:31:05.239 --> 00:31:06.459 Ohio is another one, 1441 00:31:06.839 --> 00:31:07.829 and then Texas, 1442 00:31:07.959 --> 00:31:07.979 uh, 1443 00:31:08.079 --> 00:31:08.390 you have, 1444 00:31:08.500 --> 00:31:08.550 uh, 1445 00:31:08.680 --> 00:31:09.339 Abbott is a, 1446 00:31:09.439 --> 00:31:09.790 uh, 1447 00:31:09.920 --> 00:31:10.760 moderate favorite, 1448 00:31:10.839 --> 00:31:12.050 72% favorite, 1449 00:31:12.369 --> 00:31:12.579 um, 1450 00:31:12.719 --> 00:31:13.020 where, 1451 00:31:13.160 --> 00:31:13.520 uh, 1452 00:31:13.680 --> 00:31:14.560 the underdog is, 1453 00:31:14.640 --> 00:31:14.849 uh, 1454 00:31:15.079 --> 00:31:15.640 Paxton. 1455 00:31:16.530 --> 00:31:17.089 And then in, 1456 00:31:17.130 --> 00:31:17.640 uh, 1457 00:31:17.969 --> 00:31:19.489 in Ohio is another interesting 1, 1458 00:31:19.569 --> 00:31:20.459 50%, 1459 00:31:20.810 --> 00:31:21.000 uh, 1460 00:31:21.060 --> 00:31:22.089 to 40%. 1461 00:31:22.199 --> 00:31:23.810 Ramaswamy is an underdog. 1462 00:31:24.010 --> 00:31:24.560 You got a, 1463 00:31:24.579 --> 00:31:25.569 a closer race, 1464 00:31:25.609 --> 00:31:25.810 uh, 1465 00:31:25.930 --> 00:31:26.089 in, 1466 00:31:26.290 --> 00:31:28.229 according to DDHQ when it comes to, 1467 00:31:28.579 --> 00:31:28.770 uh, 1468 00:31:28.969 --> 00:31:29.650 Sherrod Brown. 1469

00:31:30.050 --> 00:31:30.369 Um, 1470 00:31:30.489 --> 00:31:30.689 so, 1471 00:31:30.800 --> 00:31:31.079 uh, 1472 00:31:31.250 --> 00:31:33.119 that's the situation for those split tickets. 1473 00:31:33.199 --> 00:31:34.010 One more quick, 1474 00:31:34.020 --> 00:31:34.270 interesting, 1475 00:31:34.339 --> 00:31:34.430 uh, 1476 00:31:34.449 --> 00:31:35.709 chart they had on there. 1477 00:31:36.050 --> 00:31:36.550 If you 1478 00:31:36.790 --> 00:31:38.229 only knew the outcome of one race, 1479 00:31:38.530 --> 00:31:40.520 what is the likelihood of the Democrats winning the Senate? 1480 00:31:40.829 --> 00:31:40.849 Uh, 1481 00:31:40.969 --> 00:31:43.310 this is just a dumb exercise that I think is fun to look at. 1482 00:31:43.530 --> 00:31:43.829 But 1483 00:31:44.050 --> 00:31:44.209 if, 1484 00:31:44.290 --> 00:31:44.439 if, 1485 00:31:44.449 --> 00:31:44.599 like, 1486 00:31:44.609 --> 00:31:44.880 for example, 1487 00:31:44.959 --> 00:31:46.439 if the Democrats win South Carolina, 1488 00:31:46.520 --> 00:31:49.479 they have an 88% chance to win the Senate knowing no other results. 1489 00:31:49.770 --> 00:31:51.229 Kansas is their next best, 1490 00:31:51.439 --> 00:31:52.449 86%. 1491 00:31:52.859 --> 00:31:53.140 Um, 1492 00:31:53.209 --> 00:31:53.900 if they win Iowa, 1493 00:31:53.969 --> 00:31:56.199 they've got an 81% chance of winning the Senate. 1494 00:31:56.420 --> 00:31:57.459 If they win just Ohio, 1495 00:31:57.500 --> 00:31:58.530 it's the only race we know, 1496 00:31:58.619 --> 00:32:00.010 79% chance to win, 1497 00:32:00.219 --> 00:32:01.380 and it goes on down from there. 1498 00:32:01.489 --> 00:32:04.040 Kind of an interesting look at the Senate percentages. 1499 00:32:04.250 --> 00:32:04.500 Um, 1500 00:32:04.699 --> 00:32:05.380 let me look at the, 1501 00:32:05.459 --> 00:32:05.569 uh, 1502 00:32:05.699 --> 00:32:06.010 Calci 1503 00:32:06.469 --> 00:32:06.930 map here. 1504 00:32:07.010 --> 00:32:07.780 This is for the governors. 1505 00:32:07.859 --> 00:32:09.489 I wanna go through some of these because I think, 1506 00:32:09.699 --> 00:32:09.819 you know, 1507 00:32:09.859 --> 00:32:11.420 we have spent more time on the Senate. 1508 00:32:11.790 --> 00:32:11.979 Uh, 1509 00:32:12.069 --> 00:32:14.209 it's kind of the marquee thing plus you have control of the Senate, 1510 00:32:14.260 --> 00:32:15.060 which is at charge. 1511 00:32:15.130 --> 00:32:16.819 It doesn't really matter necessarily. 1512 00:32:16.890 --> 00:32:18.319 There's no voting block 1513 00:32:18.459 --> 00:32:19.339 of governors, 1514 00:32:19.619 --> 00:32:20.380 but it is important, 1515 00:32:20.579 --> 00:32:22.180 more important to you in your home state. 1516 00:32:22.489 --> 00:32:23.270 If you're thinking about, 1517 00:32:23.400 --> 00:32:23.810 oh gosh, 1518 00:32:23.890 --> 00:32:24.229 well, 1519 00:32:24.290 --> 00:32:24.609 um, 1520 00:32:24.849 --> 00:32:27.729 who am I really hoping for in my home state to be in the party that I want, 1521 00:32:28.050 --> 00:32:28.829 you want the governor. 1522 00:32:29.089 --> 00:32:32.109 The governor is more important to your day to day life 1523 00:32:32.569 --> 00:32:33.290 than a senator is. 1524 00:32:33.359 --> 00:32:34.810 A senator is one of 100 votes. 1525 00:32:35.000 --> 00:32:35.520 Still very, 1526 00:32:35.609 --> 00:32:36.589 very important, 1527 00:32:37.010 --> 00:32:39.329 but not as important to your everyday life, 1528 00:32:39.369 --> 00:32:39.969 in my opinion, 1529 00:32:40.010 --> 00:32:40.550 at least. 1530 00:32:40.770 --> 00:32:40.930 Um, 1531 00:32:40.979 --> 00:32:41.930 this is what that looks like. 1532 00:32:42.010 --> 00:32:43.489 Let's go through some of the races here. 1533 00:32:43.569 --> 00:32:45.910 There's a bunch of solid races we don't have to touch on. 1534 00:32:46.400 --> 00:32:46.640 Uh, 1535 00:32:46.719 --> 00:32:47.160 that are, 1536 00:32:47.270 --> 00:32:48.140 you know, 1537 00:32:48.349 --> 00:32:50.589 anywhere from 89% on up. 1538 00:32:50.839 --> 00:32:52.430 The closest one for the Republicans, 1539 00:32:52.439 --> 00:32:54.619 if you're looking for a solid state is Nebraska, 1540 00:32:54.949 --> 00:32:56.449 an 89% chance for, 1541 00:32:56.560 --> 00:32:56.800 uh, 1542 00:32:57.000 --> 00:32:58.819 Jim Pille to win there. 1543 00:32:59.150 --> 00:32:59.430 Uh, 1544 00:32:59.560 --> 00:33:02.280 nothing else really even remotely close to talk about. 1545 00:33:02.359 --> 00:33:03.619 On the solid side for, 1546 00:33:04.109 --> 00:33:04.589 um, 1547 00:33:05.160 --> 00:33:05.589 Democrats, 1548 00:33:05.880 --> 00:33:07.030 you have races like Colorado, 1549 00:33:07.119 --> 00:33:07.479 Delaware, 1550 00:33:07.599 --> 00:33:07.949 Georgia, 1551 00:33:08.040 --> 00:33:08.520 Illinois, 1552 00:33:08.680 --> 00:33:09.439 Massachusetts, 1553 00:33:09.550 --> 00:33:10.219 nothing really clear. 1554 00:33:10.439 --> 00:33:10.880 They do have, 1555 00:33:10.920 --> 00:33:11.180 um, 1556 00:33:11.439 --> 00:33:11.589 uh, 1557 00:33:11.640 --> 00:33:13.959 96% chance for Roy Cooper now to win. 1558 00:33:14.410 --> 00:33:14.810 Um, 1559 00:33:14.920 --> 00:33:15.260 which is, 1560 00:33:15.339 --> 00:33:15.589 uh, 1561 00:33:15.670 --> 00:33:16.469 uh, 1562 00:33:16.780 --> 00:33:16.859 oh, 1563 00:33:17.099 --> 00:33:17.180 wait, 1564 00:33:17.300 --> 00:33:17.380 wait, 1565 00:33:17.500 --> 00:33:17.520 a minute, 1566 00:33:17.709 --> 00:33:18.540 let me change it back. 1567 00:33:18.699 --> 00:33:19.099 Sorry about that, 1568 00:33:19.140 --> 00:33:20.099 I clicked on the wrong button. 1569 00:33:20.500 --> 00:33:21.000 Oops, 1570 00:33:21.459 --> 00:33:21.849 sorry about that. 1571 00:33:21.930 --> 00:33:22.339 Let me go back, 1572 00:33:22.410 --> 00:33:22.699 uh, 1573 00:33:22.780 --> 00:33:23.280 here we go. 1574 00:33:23.500 --> 00:33:23.890 Um, 1575 00:33:24.020 --> 00:33:24.219 OK, 1576 00:33:24.300 --> 00:33:25.979 so over on this, 1577 00:33:27.459 -->

00:33:27.849 sorry about this. 1578 00:33:27.900 --> 00:33:29.339 This is what live television is like, 1579 00:33:29.459 --> 00:33:29.900 guys, 1580 00:33:30.219 --> 00:33:31.939 people clicking around on phones and websites. 1581 00:33:32.260 --> 00:33:32.540 Um, 1582 00:33:32.619 --> 00:33:33.380 that's how it's always been. 1583 00:33:33.619 --> 00:33:36.020 Katie Hobbs is in the solid Democratic category. 1584 00:33:36.069 --> 00:33:38.199 That was one I know Republicans had high hopes for, 1585 00:33:38.459 --> 00:33:38.699 uh, 1586 00:33:39.069 --> 00:33:39.280 California, 1587 00:33:39.380 --> 00:33:40.040 Becerra, 1588 00:33:40.469 --> 00:33:40.579 uh, 1589 00:33:40.699 --> 00:33:41.290 Colorado, 1590 00:33:41.380 --> 00:33:41.780 Connecticut, 1591 00:33:41.900 --> 00:33:42.339 Hawaii. 1592 00:33:42.420 --> 00:33:42.540 Yeah, 1593 00:33:42.900 --> 00:33:44.000 you're gonna be surprised to hear, 1594 00:33:44.189 --> 00:33:44.329 uh, 1595 00:33:44.459 --> 00:33:45.810 Josh Green's gonna win in Hawaii, 1596 00:33:46.060 --> 00:33:46.540 Illinois, 1597 00:33:46.859 --> 00:33:47.380 Massachusetts. 1598 00:33:47.449 --> 00:33:47.699 Those are, 1599 00:33:47.780 --> 00:33:47.969 uh, 1600 00:33:48.099 --> 00:33:48.219 uh, 1601 00:33:48.380 --> 00:33:49.209 Maine is another one. 1602 00:33:49.469 --> 00:33:50.540 Michigan is a, 1603 00:33:50.619 --> 00:33:51.119 uh, 1604 00:33:51.339 --> 00:33:52.760 probably the closest race 1605 00:33:52.979 --> 00:33:53.199 over here. 1606 00:33:53.459 --> 00:33:57.060 Still a 92% chance for Benson to beat James, 1607 00:33:57.349 --> 00:33:57.540 uh, 1608 00:33:57.660 --> 00:33:58.060 in, 1609 00:33:58.140 --> 00:33:58.540 uh, 1610 00:33:58.660 --> 00:33:59.079 in, 1611 00:33:59.380 --> 00:33:59.890 um, 1612 00:34:00.140 --> 00:34:00.680 Michigan, 1613 00:34:00.819 --> 00:34:01.219 according. 1614 00:34:01.729 --> 00:34:02.890 To prediction markets. 1615 00:34:03.050 --> 00:34:04.550 So let's go to the closer races here. 1616 00:34:05.069 --> 00:34:05.170 Uh, 1617 00:34:05.239 --> 00:34:06.449 let's start with likely Democrat. 1618 00:34:06.530 --> 00:34:07.069 You've got 1619 00:34:07.290 --> 00:34:08.188 Alaska, 1620 00:34:08.469 --> 00:34:08.649 uh, 1621 00:34:08.728 --> 00:34:10.469 is an 80% Democratic state. 1622 00:34:10.969 --> 00:34:11.520 Iowa, 1623 00:34:11.679 --> 00:34:13.290 86% Democratic state. 1624 00:34:13.389 --> 00:34:13.570 Again, 1625 00:34:13.610 --> 00:34:15.188 it's kind of a shocking development 1626 00:34:15.610 --> 00:34:16.199 when you talk about, 1627 00:34:16.290 --> 00:34:16.449 uh, 1628 00:34:16.530 --> 00:34:16.780 um, 1629 00:34:16.889 --> 00:34:17.469 Iowa. 1630 00:34:17.760 --> 00:34:21.469 Oregon is probably the most perplexing race in the union 1631 00:34:22.010 --> 00:34:22.510 right now. 1632 00:34:22.889 --> 00:34:23.688 The polling is very, 1633 00:34:23.800 --> 00:34:24.260 very close. 1634 00:34:24.370 --> 00:34:27.000 People don't really like Tina Kodak in Oregon. 1635 00:34:27.129 --> 00:34:29.389 It's a Democratic year in a Democratic state. 1636 00:34:29.899 --> 00:34:31.949 But Drazen really has a chance in that race. 1637 00:34:32.030 --> 00:34:32.188 It's, 1638 00:34:32.399 --> 00:34:34.889 I have a Koech position that's relatively large. 1639 00:34:35.110 --> 00:34:36.179 I'm nervous about it. 1640 00:34:36.310 --> 00:34:37.449 I don't know that 1641 00:34:37.590 --> 00:34:39.409 I've trimmed it a little bit in the past week. 1642 00:34:39.590 --> 00:34:40.750 I'm nervous about that position, 1643 00:34:40.830 --> 00:34:42.020 but it is hanging out there. 1644 00:34:42.270 --> 00:34:43.830 And Wisconsin's another interesting one. 1645 00:34:43.909 --> 00:34:45.830 David Crowley at 80% to win. 1646 00:34:45.969 --> 00:34:47.610 I'm terrified of any poll 1647 00:34:47.870 --> 00:34:49.149 in Wisconsin in particular. 1648 00:34:49.228 --> 00:34:51.790 The polling's been notoriously horrible there, 1649 00:34:52.070 --> 00:34:52.188 uh, 1650 00:34:52.270 --> 00:34:54.969 but does have Crowley with a slight lead over Tom Tiffany. 1651 00:34:55.260 --> 00:34:57.439 Prediction markets think it's about an 80/20 1652 00:34:57.709 --> 00:34:58.149 race. 1653 00:34:58.889 --> 00:35:01.159 On the Republican likely side here, 1654 00:35:01.209 --> 00:35:02.370 you've got Florida. 1655 00:35:02.459 --> 00:35:03.810 David Jolly is the Democrat, 1656 00:35:03.929 --> 00:35:05.169 Byron Donald's the Republican. 1657 00:35:05.409 --> 00:35:07.439 Donald's up to about 80%. 1658 00:35:07.649 --> 00:35:10.229 I still like that race and like the value there 1659 00:35:10.370 --> 00:35:11.080 for Donald's. 1660 00:35:11.250 --> 00:35:12.280 Florida is one of those races. 1661 00:35:12.290 --> 00:35:13.310 I think Republicans 1662 00:35:13.419 --> 00:35:15.290 are going to draw a line around Florida and 1663 00:35:15.290 --> 00:35:17.229 hold most of the stuff that they have there. 1664 00:35:17.439 --> 00:35:18.010 We will see. 1665 00:35:18.169 --> 00:35:18.590 Kansas, 1666 00:35:19.080 --> 00:35:19.370 uh, 1667 00:35:19.520 --> 00:35:21.669 has Ty Masterson at 77% favor, 1668 00:35:21.729 --> 00:35:22.610 the Republican 1669 00:35:23.090 --> 00:35:23.969 ahead in Kansas. 1670 00:35:24.090 --> 00:35:24.770 Oklahoma, 1671 00:35:24.889 --> 00:35:25.750 Mike Maizey 1672 00:35:25.929 --> 00:35:27.229 at 91%. 1673 00:35:27.780 --> 00:35:28.129 And, 1674 00:35:28.149 --> 00:35:28.459 uh, 1675 00:35:28.620 --> 00:35:30.860 Greg Abbott in my own state here in Texas, 1676 00:35:30.939 --> 00:35:33.550 73% favorite over Gina Hinahoza, 1677 00:35:33.899 --> 00:35:34.020 uh, 1678 00:35:34.100 --> 00:35:35.600 who's running a lot of ads now. 1679 00:35:35.770 --> 00:35:38.439 Now it's gotten to the point where every single ad is one of these candidates 1680 00:35:38.620 --> 00:35:39.300 in Texas. 1681 00:35:39.540 --> 00:35:41.419 They're spending hundreds of millions of dollars. 1682 00:35:41.459 --> 00:35:42.919 It's

amazing to watch 1683 00:35:43.100 --> 00:35:43.840 in action. 1684 00:35:44.060 --> 00:35:44.540 They do, 1685 00:35:45.100 --> 00:35:46.540 Democrats do have a chance to win. 1686 00:35:46.620 --> 00:35:48.120 I still think Abbott is the favorite 1687 00:35:48.340 --> 00:35:48.760 there. 1688 00:35:49.090 --> 00:35:49.219 Uh, 1689 00:35:49.300 --> 00:35:51.439 some lean Republican races right now, 1690 00:35:51.780 --> 00:35:51.899 uh, 1691 00:35:52.020 --> 00:35:53.580 Vermont is an interesting one. 1692 00:35:53.949 --> 00:35:56.229 And if you wanna go to the fringes of the blue wave, 1693 00:35:56.510 --> 00:35:58.110 this is an interesting one to investigate. 1694 00:35:58.270 --> 00:35:59.260 Phil Scott has been very, 1695 00:35:59.350 --> 00:35:59.790 very, 1696 00:35:59.870 --> 00:36:00.090 uh, 1697 00:36:00.139 --> 00:36:00.489 popular. 1698 00:36:00.590 --> 00:36:01.669 He is a Republican, 1699 00:36:01.750 --> 00:36:03.709 a Republican governor of Vermont, 1700 00:36:03.780 --> 00:36:04.340 of all places, 1701 00:36:04.389 --> 00:36:05.929 the Bernie Sanders state. 1702 00:36:06.629 --> 00:36:07.050 But 1703 00:36:07.310 --> 00:36:10.830 Scott has been a very popular moderate Republican governor. 1704 00:36:11.189 --> 00:36:11.310 Uh, 1705 00:36:11.389 --> 00:36:12.500 he's done by all accounts, 1706 00:36:12.510 --> 00:36:14.699 a very good job there for the state, 1707 00:36:14.949 --> 00:36:16.739 and Vermont voters tend to like him. 1708 00:36:16.949 --> 00:36:19.229 Amanda Janou is much more like Bernie Sanders. 1709 00:36:19.330 --> 00:36:19.689 Basically, 1710 00:36:20.010 --> 00:36:21.449 she was endorsed by Sanders. 1711 00:36:22.389 --> 00:36:23.000 The question is, 1712 00:36:23.080 --> 00:36:24.199 in this Democratic year, 1713 00:36:24.500 --> 00:36:24.840 Vermont, 1714 00:36:24.919 --> 00:36:27.600 who's already very open to a Bernie Sanders type candidate, 1715 00:36:27.800 --> 00:36:29.540 do they surprise us 1716 00:36:29.719 --> 00:36:30.909 and knock Phil Scott out? 1717 00:36:30.919 --> 00:36:32.000 I think there's a chance of it. 1718 00:36:32.239 --> 00:36:34.580 She's at 24% right now. 1719 00:36:34.959 --> 00:36:35.560 Um, 1720 00:36:35.760 --> 00:36:36.790 you also have, 1721 00:36:36.840 --> 00:36:38.780 over on the lean Democratic side, 1722 00:36:39.320 --> 00:36:41.280 there is Amy Acton going up against, 1723 00:36:41.370 --> 00:36:41.889 uh, 1724 00:36:42.000 --> 00:36:43.320 Vivek Ramaswamy. 1725 00:36:43.810 --> 00:36:45.649 That is an interesting race, 1726 00:36:45.689 --> 00:36:46.010 uh, 1727 00:36:46.129 --> 00:36:47.050 likely because, 1728 00:36:47.129 --> 00:36:47.300 uh, 1729 00:36:47.409 --> 00:36:49.729 of the back and forth between the candidates there. 1730 00:36:49.810 --> 00:36:52.409 I want to get into that maybe here in a second if I have time. 1731 00:36:52.600 --> 00:36:52.610 Yeah, 1732 00:36:52.770 --> 00:36:53.649 I'm pretty long on this break. 1733 00:36:53.729 --> 00:36:55.000 We might have to hold that till tomorrow. 1734 00:36:55.370 --> 00:36:55.449 Uh, 1735 00:36:55.570 --> 00:36:55.850 toss-off, 1736 00:36:55.929 --> 00:36:56.929 you got Georgia, 1737 00:36:57.169 --> 00:36:59.879 which is Keisha Lance Bottoms against Rick Jackson. 1738 00:37:00.110 --> 00:37:02.389 That's a 50/50 race basically exactly. 1739 00:37:02.770 --> 00:37:03.169 Um, 1740 00:37:03.250 --> 00:37:06.610 and then Nevada is a 58% Democratic favor, 1741 00:37:06.850 --> 00:37:08.719 Aaron Ford over Joe Lombardo. 1742 00:37:08.929 --> 00:37:10.669 That one could go either way for sure. 1743 00:37:11.169 --> 00:37:11.370 Very, 1744 00:37:11.479 --> 00:37:12.510 very close race 1745 00:37:12.689 --> 00:37:12.850 there. 1746 00:37:12.889 --> 00:37:14.790 I want to focus on Ohio for one more second there. 1747 00:37:15.129 --> 00:37:15.310 Um, 1748 00:37:15.360 --> 00:37:17.889 Ohio is Vivek Ramaswamy against Amy Acton. 1749 00:37:17.929 --> 00:37:18.729 Acton was, 1750 00:37:18.810 --> 00:37:19.060 uh, 1751 00:37:19.330 --> 00:37:19.489 you know, 1752 00:37:19.649 --> 00:37:20.209 had some issues. 1753 00:37:20.290 --> 00:37:21.610 She doesn't seem to be a great candidate. 1754 00:37:22.010 --> 00:37:22.139 Um, 1755 00:37:22.219 --> 00:37:23.100 Vivek Ramaswamy, 1756 00:37:23.179 --> 00:37:24.030 not very popular, 1757 00:37:24.139 --> 00:37:26.219 not very well liked for whatever reason in Ohio. 1758 00:37:26.260 --> 00:37:27.459 It's a very strange race. 1759 00:37:27.540 --> 00:37:27.800 Uh, 1760 00:37:28.370 --> 00:37:29.699 it seems like if Ohio had the choice, 1761 00:37:29.739 --> 00:37:30.300 they'd pick, 1762 00:37:30.310 --> 00:37:30.350 uh, 1763 00:37:30.500 --> 00:37:31.020 neither, 1764 00:37:31.219 --> 00:37:33.159 none of the above would probably be their pick. 1765 00:37:33.540 --> 00:37:33.860 Um, 1766 00:37:34.000 --> 00:37:35.120 the polling has been 1767 00:37:35.379 --> 00:37:36.379 relatively close here, 1768 00:37:36.419 --> 00:37:37.510 3 or 4 points 1769 00:37:37.860 --> 00:37:38.459 favoring, 1770 00:37:38.540 --> 00:37:38.820 um, 1771 00:37:38.939 --> 00:37:40.739 Acton in the most recent polls. 1772 00:37:40.810 --> 00:37:43.239 Ramaswamy had one pretty close recently. 1773 00:37:43.540 --> 00:37:45.219 They pulled out all the stops there though, 1774 00:37:45.300 --> 00:37:45.889 I will say, 1775 00:37:45.899 --> 00:37:49.580 maybe tomorrow we should feature the new ad by Ramaswamy featuring, 1776 00:37:49.739 --> 00:37:50.560 I kid you not. 1777 00:37:51.320 --> 00:37:52.590 Amy Acton's mom. 1778 00:37:53.689 --> 00:37:55.879 In an ad for her opponent, 1779 00:37:56.159 --> 00:37:57.469 Vivek Ramaswamy. 1780 00:37:57.679 --> 00:37:58.919 We'll get into that tomorrow and, 1781 00:37:58.929 --> 00:37:59.120 uh, 1782 00:37:59.129 --> 00:37:59.489 so much more. 1783 00:37:59.530 --> 00:38:00.050 I wanna take a break, 1784 00:38:00.169 --> 00:38:00.850 come back on the other side. 1785 00:38:00.889 --> 00:38:02.010 It's

NBA kickoff, 1786 00:38:02.050 --> 00:38:02.120 uh, 1787 00:38:02.129 --> 00:38:03.010 tip-off tonight. 1788 00:38:03.290 --> 00:38:04.790 They wouldn't really kick off in the NBA, 1789 00:38:05.090 --> 00:38:05.209 uh, 1790 00:38:05.290 --> 00:38:06.959 tip-off NBA tonight. 1791 00:38:07.250 --> 00:38:08.850 I wanna tell you a little bit about that with a 1792 00:38:08.850 --> 00:38:11.310 couple of interesting positions we can look at in prediction markets there 1793 00:38:11.610 --> 00:38:12.570 and so much more to come. 1794 00:38:24.909 --> 00:38:26.750 LeBron James on his own new team. 1795 00:38:26.830 --> 00:38:30.649 He's gonna make a regular season debut as a Philadelphia seventy-Sixer. 1796 00:38:31.000 --> 00:38:31.189 Yes, 1797 00:38:31.350 --> 00:38:33.189 against the New York Knicks. 1798 00:38:33.270 --> 00:38:33.360 Uh, 1799 00:38:33.429 --> 00:38:34.189 that's tonight. 1800 00:38:34.419 --> 00:38:36.449 NBA season kicks off. 1801 00:38:37.060 --> 00:38:37.419 Uh, 1802 00:38:37.590 --> 00:38:38.030 there is a, 1803 00:38:38.110 --> 00:38:38.260 uh, 1804 00:38:38.459 --> 00:38:38.629 more of course, 1805 00:38:38.790 --> 00:38:40.310 there's markets on all of these games. 1806 00:38:40.389 --> 00:38:42.969 That's not typically how we use prediction markets here. 1807 00:38:43.100 --> 00:38:43.770 A lot of people, 1808 00:38:43.790 --> 00:38:43.870 uh, 1809 00:38:43.909 --> 00:38:44.419 do use them, 1810 00:38:44.510 --> 00:38:44.659 uh, 1811 00:38:44.739 --> 00:38:45.290 for that purpose. 1812 00:38:45.790 --> 00:38:45.979 Um, 1813 00:38:46.070 --> 00:38:47.870 we're kind of look more longer term. 1814 00:38:47.989 --> 00:38:48.110 Uh, 1815 00:38:48.310 --> 00:38:49.330 I do like sports, 1816 00:38:49.389 --> 00:38:49.949 um, 1817 00:38:50.330 --> 00:38:50.540 uh, 1818 00:38:50.629 --> 00:38:50.850 and, 1819 00:38:50.870 --> 00:38:51.060 uh, 1820 00:38:51.070 --> 00:38:52.110 I do like sports markets. 1821 00:38:52.189 --> 00:38:54.100 We find a lot of value in them and have done very, 1822 00:38:54.179 --> 00:38:55.399 very well in sports markets, 1823 00:38:55.510 --> 00:38:55.810 including 1824 00:38:56.110 --> 00:38:59.469 a big position that I won earlier this year of whether LeBron would retire or not. 1825 00:38:59.629 --> 00:39:00.219 Give me a break. 1826 00:39:00.270 --> 00:39:01.429 He's not retiring without a, 1827 00:39:01.550 --> 00:39:02.149 uh, 1828 00:39:02.750 --> 00:39:05.429 everybody focusing on him for an entire year of farewell. 1829 00:39:05.750 --> 00:39:07.439 You're not gonna just announce it on a Tuesday. 1830 00:39:07.590 --> 00:39:08.010 Anyway, 1831 00:39:08.179 --> 00:39:08.510 um, 1832 00:39:08.590 --> 00:39:10.739 this is what the market for that game looks like. 1833 00:39:10.899 --> 00:39:11.409 Sixers are, 1834 00:39:11.510 --> 00:39:11.669 you know, 1835 00:39:11.830 --> 00:39:13.129 the big buzz team. 1836 00:39:13.709 --> 00:39:13.820 Our, 1837 00:39:13.899 --> 00:39:14.659 our underdogs, 1838 00:39:14.709 --> 00:39:14.899 of course, 1839 00:39:14.979 --> 00:39:16.090 the defending champs, 1840 00:39:16.169 --> 00:39:16.280 uh, 1841 00:39:16.340 --> 00:39:18.340 39% chance for the Sixers to win, 1842 00:39:18.689 --> 00:39:18.810 uh, 1843 00:39:18.850 --> 00:39:20.679 61% for the Knicks. 1844 00:39:21.010 --> 00:39:21.300 Um, 1845 00:39:21.500 --> 00:39:21.949 I wanna, 1846 00:39:22.100 --> 00:39:22.219 though, 1847 00:39:22.300 --> 00:39:24.169 I like looking at the over-unders for the year, 1848 00:39:24.459 --> 00:39:24.570 uh, 1849 00:39:24.620 --> 00:39:26.080 when it comes to win totals, 1850 00:39:26.459 --> 00:39:28.939 and I like that because you can find value there. 1851 00:39:29.120 --> 00:39:32.280 And the way that prediction markets do this is different than if you've ever seen, 1852 00:39:32.389 --> 00:39:32.530 uh, 1853 00:39:32.659 --> 00:39:34.320 something kind of similar, 1854 00:39:34.659 --> 00:39:34.689 uh, 1855 00:39:34.699 --> 00:39:35.090 on a, 1856 00:39:35.129 --> 00:39:35.340 uh, 1857 00:39:35.449 --> 00:39:35.620 you know, 1858 00:39:35.739 --> 00:39:35.899 uh, 1859 00:39:36.100 --> 00:39:38.179 a more traditional sports gambling site. 1860 00:39:38.550 --> 00:39:38.820 Um, 1861 00:39:39.000 --> 00:39:41.439 they give you all sorts of different options here. 1862 00:39:41.560 --> 00:39:41.760 Um, 1863 00:39:41.840 --> 00:39:44.110 let me show you what this looks like if you are interested in this. 1864 00:39:44.159 --> 00:39:44.830 Maybe we should do an, 1865 00:39:44.919 --> 00:39:45.030 uh, 1866 00:39:45.120 --> 00:39:45.479 a draft. 1867 00:39:45.550 --> 00:39:48.060 We did a draft for over-under for NFL wins. 1868 00:39:48.389 --> 00:39:48.679 Um, 1869 00:39:48.760 --> 00:39:48.879 uh, 1870 00:39:48.959 --> 00:39:50.000 you guys seem to like that show. 1871 00:39:50.050 --> 00:39:51.719 Maybe we'll do one for the NBA as well. 1872 00:39:51.800 --> 00:39:52.050 But, 1873 00:39:52.360 --> 00:39:52.560 uh, 1874 00:39:52.639 --> 00:39:53.129 if you look here, 1875 00:39:53.260 --> 00:39:54.439 you're like the Wizards are the, 1876 00:39:54.639 --> 00:39:56.479 why would the Wizards be the number one on this? 1877 00:39:56.560 --> 00:39:56.800 Come on, 1878 00:39:56.989 --> 00:39:57.229 Calhi, 1879 00:39:57.360 --> 00:39:57.530 what are you, 1880 00:39:57.610 --> 00:39:58.850 you're putting the Wizards up there? 1881 00:39:59.120 --> 00:39:59.239 Uh, 1882 00:39:59.280 --> 00:40:00.500 the Wizards are 30, 1883 00:40:00.639 --> 00:40:00.909 like, 1884 00:40:01.000 --> 00:40:02.520 will they win 35 games or more? 1885 00:40:02.760 --> 00:40:02.860 Uh, 1886 00:40:02.919 --> 00:40:04.260 55% chance of that. 1887 00:40:05.060 --> 00:40:05.379 I'm, 1888 00:40:05.580 --> 00:40:06.959 I'm thinking under on these, 1889 00:40:07.139 --> 00:40:07.300 uh, 1890 00:40:07.419 --> 00:40:10.719 40 wins at a 36% chance of that. 1891 00:40:10.979 --> 00:40:11.739 The Sixers, 1892 00:40:12.020 --> 00:40:12.939 kind of that

buzzy team, 1893 00:40:13.020 --> 00:40:13.699 50 wins, 1894 00:40:13.780 --> 00:40:13.929 uh, 1895 00:40:13.979 --> 00:40:15.820 48% chance of 50 plus wins. 1896 00:40:15.889 --> 00:40:16.020 I mean, 1897 00:40:16.060 --> 00:40:17.080 if you think about that team, 1898 00:40:17.500 --> 00:40:18.250 they added LeBron, 1899 00:40:18.340 --> 00:40:18.780 but again, 1900 00:40:18.860 --> 00:40:20.360 they already had a lot of talent. 1901 00:40:20.580 --> 00:40:21.120 You add, 1902 00:40:21.179 --> 00:40:21.649 uh, 1903 00:40:21.739 --> 00:40:22.300 uh, 1904 00:40:22.560 --> 00:40:23.340 Jalen Brown. 1905 00:40:23.709 --> 00:40:24.090 Um, 1906 00:40:24.229 --> 00:40:25.310 you have Edgecombe, 1907 00:40:25.469 --> 00:40:26.389 you have Maxie. 1908 00:40:26.469 --> 00:40:26.629 I mean, 1909 00:40:26.870 --> 00:40:27.219 it is, 1910 00:40:27.280 --> 00:40:27.379 uh, 1911 00:40:27.510 --> 00:40:27.709 of course, 1912 00:40:27.830 --> 00:40:28.969 in beat if he plays, 1913 00:40:29.469 --> 00:40:29.989 it's a heck of, 1914 00:40:30.270 --> 00:40:30.870 they really got a lot, 1915 00:40:30.979 --> 00:40:31.810 they got a great team, 1916 00:40:31.959 --> 00:40:32.270 um, 1917 00:40:32.389 --> 00:40:32.649 if 1918 00:40:32.870 --> 00:40:33.459 people are healthy, 1919 00:40:33.550 --> 00:40:35.090 but they are depending a lot 1920 00:40:35.300 --> 00:40:36.189 on older players. 1921 00:40:36.340 --> 00:40:40.030 One of the things we went against in the NFL was against the Rams having this, 1922 00:40:40.070 --> 00:40:40.350 uh, 1923 00:40:40.550 --> 00:40:41.389 dream team season, 1924 00:40:41.429 --> 00:40:42.699 and so far that's paid off very, 1925 00:40:42.770 --> 00:40:43.449 very well, 1926 00:40:43.840 --> 00:40:44.110 uh, 1927 00:40:44.270 --> 00:40:44.580 for, 1928 00:40:44.649 --> 00:40:45.040 uh, 1929 00:40:45.189 --> 00:40:46.850 for us in the prediction markets 1930 00:40:47.629 --> 00:40:48.129 because, 1931 00:40:48.229 --> 00:40:48.429 you know, 1932 00:40:48.590 --> 00:40:50.219 those teams don't usually do that well, 1933 00:40:50.229 --> 00:40:51.520 and especially when you're depending. 1934 00:40:51.959 --> 00:40:53.340 On a team 1935 00:40:53.560 --> 00:40:55.379 to drag a couple of, 1936 00:40:55.479 --> 00:40:55.840 uh, 1937 00:40:56.000 --> 00:40:56.399 older players, 1938 00:40:56.469 --> 00:40:56.560 like, 1939 00:40:56.600 --> 00:40:56.719 you know, 1940 00:40:56.830 --> 00:40:58.419 LeBron James is in his 40s, 1941 00:40:58.679 --> 00:41:00.919 and Joel Embiid's body is 80. 1942 00:41:01.340 --> 00:41:01.669 He's, 1943 00:41:02.000 --> 00:41:02.270 it is, 1944 00:41:02.280 --> 00:41:02.449 uh, 1945 00:41:02.520 --> 00:41:03.840 as fragile as a, 1946 00:41:03.899 --> 00:41:04.020 uh, 1947 00:41:04.120 --> 00:41:04.919 Biscoff cookie. 1948 00:41:05.479 --> 00:41:05.830 Uh, 1949 00:41:05.959 --> 00:41:06.320 so, 1950 00:41:06.439 --> 00:41:07.479 and if you've ever been on a, 1951 00:41:07.550 --> 00:41:09.790 a flight where they have Biscovoff cookies as the treat, 1952 00:41:09.840 --> 00:41:10.439 you know, 1953 00:41:10.639 --> 00:41:12.379 the second you take a bite into one of those, 1954 00:41:12.840 --> 00:41:13.620 everything crumbles 1955 00:41:13.840 --> 00:41:15.080 and you're covered in dust, 1956 00:41:15.239 --> 00:41:16.399 Biscoff cookie dust, 1957 00:41:16.560 --> 00:41:17.820 which is delicious dust, 1958 00:41:18.120 --> 00:41:18.909 but it's dust. 1959 00:41:19.340 --> 00:41:19.520 And the, 1960 00:41:19.719 --> 00:41:22.590 that's basically what the bones are of Joel and Bede at this point. 1961 00:41:22.919 --> 00:41:23.159 So, 1962 00:41:23.239 --> 00:41:23.590 um, 1963 00:41:23.719 --> 00:41:24.699 gonna be an interesting season. 1964 00:41:24.800 --> 00:41:26.239 Maybe on Thursday's show, 1965 00:41:26.320 --> 00:41:27.100 we'll do, 1966 00:41:27.159 --> 00:41:29.219 an NBA over-under draft 1967 00:41:29.439 --> 00:41:31.600 and look at this season and see if I can, 1968 00:41:31.669 --> 00:41:31.800 uh, 1969 00:41:31.909 --> 00:41:32.199 you know, 1970 00:41:32.310 --> 00:41:32.639 uh, 1971 00:41:32.840 --> 00:41:33.000 I mean, 1972 00:41:33.040 --> 00:41:34.550 Adam's doing well in the Senate Fantasy League, 1973 00:41:34.590 --> 00:41:35.580 but he'd do terribly, 1974 00:41:35.840 --> 00:41:36.040 uh, 1975 00:41:36.070 --> 00:41:37.169 in the NBA over under him. 1976 00:41:37.560 --> 00:41:38.760 Maybe we'll bring him into the draft too, 1977 00:41:38.840 --> 00:41:39.300 so we can, 1978 00:41:39.399 --> 00:41:40.479 we can beat up on, 1979 00:41:40.550 --> 00:41:41.020 on him. 1980 00:41:41.320 --> 00:41:41.469 Um, 1981 00:41:41.520 --> 00:41:41.679 OK, 1982 00:41:41.790 --> 00:41:42.320 we're gonna take a break, 1983 00:41:42.399 --> 00:41:42.919 back in a second. 1984 00:41:54.580 --> 00:41:54.739 All right, 1985 00:41:54.780 --> 00:41:56.260 it's time for candidate countdown. 1986 00:41:56.300 --> 00:41:58.340 We pick a race that we think there's some value in, 1987 00:41:58.379 --> 00:41:59.500 and this one is, 1988 00:41:59.699 --> 00:42:01.159 this is legitimately my favorite, 1989 00:42:01.439 --> 00:42:01.889 uh, 1990 00:42:02.179 --> 00:42:03.060 one in the entire, 1991 00:42:03.139 --> 00:42:04.360 I think the entire, 1992 00:42:04.500 --> 00:42:05.179 uh, 1993 00:42:05.419 --> 00:42:06.780 prediction market space right now. 1994 00:42:07.070 --> 00:42:08.899 Our candidate countdown candidate of the day, 1995 00:42:09.010 --> 00:42:11.760 14 days until the election is. 1996 00:42:12.610 --> 00:42:13.090 Obviously, 1997 00:42:13.209 --> 00:42:14.709 Bernie Sanders, 1998 00:42:15.280 --> 00:42:15.590 independent 1999 00:42:16.110 --> 00:42:16.649 from Vermont. 2000 00:42:16.729 --> 00:42:18.129 A nice picture of Bernie there. 2001 00:42:18.239 --> 00:42:18.560 Looks very, 2002 00:42:18.649 --> 00:42:19.709 very pleasant as usual. 2003 00:42:20.050 --> 00:42:20.169 Now, 2004 00:42:20.290 --> 00:42:21.800 Bernie isn't running for

anything, 2005 00:42:22.010 --> 00:42:23.949 so it makes it hard to make him candidate of the day, 2006 00:42:24.010 --> 00:42:26.010 but there's a specific market that I absolutely like. 2007 00:42:26.090 --> 00:42:27.909 And let me highlight it with this New York Times 2008 00:42:28.169 --> 00:42:28.739 article from 2009 00:42:28.870 --> 00:42:29.139 Today, 2010 00:42:29.469 --> 00:42:31.550 drawn by Nixon's surprise surge, 2011 00:42:31.709 --> 00:42:33.969 Sanders makes a rare Florida trip. 2012 00:42:34.310 --> 00:42:34.580 Now, 2013 00:42:34.709 --> 00:42:34.830 uh, 2014 00:42:34.949 --> 00:42:36.750 Nixon is Ashley Moody's opponent. 2015 00:42:36.949 --> 00:42:37.250 Um, 2016 00:42:37.510 --> 00:42:38.530 at no point 2017 00:42:38.780 --> 00:42:42.429 in the article do they identify any piece of evidence that would, 2018 00:42:42.469 --> 00:42:45.179 I would tell you that there is a surge for Nixon. 2019 00:42:45.590 --> 00:42:47.090 I don't know what they're talking about. 2020 00:42:47.310 --> 00:42:48.129 There's no 2021 00:42:48.290 --> 00:42:49.620 surge for Nixon. 2022 00:42:49.949 --> 00:42:53.350 Moody leads in the polls and has led in the polls pretty consistently. 2023 00:42:53.679 --> 00:42:53.909 Uh, 2024 00:42:53.989 --> 00:42:55.899 there's been a couple of polls where it's been close, 2025 00:42:56.280 --> 00:42:57.229 but there's no big surge, 2026 00:42:57.310 --> 00:42:59.600 there's no big momentum going towards Nixon. 2027 00:42:59.879 --> 00:43:00.120 Um, 2028 00:43:00.239 --> 00:43:00.580 but 2029 00:43:00.840 --> 00:43:01.159 I guess, 2030 00:43:01.239 --> 00:43:01.389 uh, 2031 00:43:01.479 --> 00:43:02.959 you have to accept the premise to, 2032 00:43:03.040 --> 00:43:03.159 uh, 2033 00:43:03.239 --> 00:43:04.659 subscribe to The New York Times. 2034 00:43:05.080 --> 00:43:05.199 Uh, 2035 00:43:05.280 --> 00:43:06.469 so Democrats are surging everywhere, 2036 00:43:06.479 --> 00:43:07.360 just so you're aware. 2037 00:43:07.399 --> 00:43:07.800 This is what, 2038 00:43:07.879 --> 00:43:07.989 uh, 2039 00:43:08.050 --> 00:43:09.500 this is the market though that I love, 2040 00:43:09.919 --> 00:43:10.719 which is she did, 2041 00:43:10.850 --> 00:43:12.149 he did endorse Cynthia Nixon, 2042 00:43:12.370 --> 00:43:13.199 which I will say Cynthia. 2043 00:43:13.280 --> 00:43:13.739 What's her name? 2044 00:43:13.840 --> 00:43:15.120 I can never remember her actual name. 2045 00:43:15.280 --> 00:43:15.979 It's Nixon. 2046 00:43:16.290 --> 00:43:16.669 Uh, 2047 00:43:16.800 --> 00:43:17.219 what's her name? 2048 00:43:17.399 --> 00:43:17.629 Ms. 2049 00:43:17.719 --> 00:43:18.300 Nixon, 2050 00:43:18.520 --> 00:43:19.760 is what they say in the New York Times story. 2051 00:43:19.840 --> 00:43:20.149 Angie, 2052 00:43:20.219 --> 00:43:20.479 thank you. 2053 00:43:20.679 --> 00:43:21.360 Angie Nixon. 2054 00:43:22.000 --> 00:43:22.419 Um, 2055 00:43:22.570 --> 00:43:25.239 who will Bernie Sanders endorse before the midterms? 2056 00:43:25.290 --> 00:43:25.830 I 2057 00:43:26.370 --> 00:43:27.129 love this market. 2058 00:43:27.209 --> 00:43:28.790 I can't get enough of this market. 2059 00:43:29.169 --> 00:43:30.830 And it is premised on the idea 2060 00:43:31.530 --> 00:43:32.030 that 2061 00:43:32.330 --> 00:43:33.409 Bernie Sanders. 2062 00:43:34.080 --> 00:43:34.560 He is a, 2063 00:43:34.679 --> 00:43:37.020 is a cog in the Democratic wheel here. 2064 00:43:37.949 --> 00:43:39.120 He wants his candidates to win. 2065 00:43:39.239 --> 00:43:39.560 First of all, 2066 00:43:39.679 --> 00:43:42.580 Bernie Sanders is not very giving with his endorsements. 2067 00:43:42.830 --> 00:43:43.260 Um, 2068 00:43:43.679 --> 00:43:47.159 he is a guy who actually will only really go after and, 2069 00:43:47.199 --> 00:43:48.300 and endorse people 2070 00:43:48.760 --> 00:43:51.149 with a few exceptions in races he really, 2071 00:43:51.219 --> 00:43:52.520 really cares about with candidates that are 2072 00:43:52.520 --> 00:43:54.659 very closely aligned with his version of 2073 00:43:54.879 --> 00:43:56.419 being a Democrat or a socialist. 2074 00:43:56.639 --> 00:43:56.879 Um, 2075 00:43:56.969 --> 00:43:57.820 Cynthia Nixon, 2076 00:43:57.889 --> 00:43:58.340 or 2077 00:43:58.719 --> 00:43:59.760 Cynthia Nixon also fails, 2078 00:43:59.810 --> 00:43:59.919 but, 2079 00:43:59.959 --> 00:44:00.110 uh, 2080 00:44:00.120 --> 00:44:01.429 also Angie Nixon in Florida is, 2081 00:44:01.479 --> 00:44:02.550 is in that bucket. 2082 00:44:03.189 --> 00:44:04.610 But there's a bunch of candidates that aren't. 2083 00:44:04.949 --> 00:44:05.189 In fact, 2084 00:44:05.270 --> 00:44:08.830 the entire premise of their candidacies is that they are not socialists. 2085 00:44:09.030 --> 00:44:09.310 Now, 2086 00:44:10.179 --> 00:44:10.679 I gotta tell you, 2087 00:44:10.750 --> 00:44:13.629 I don't see any real room between these people and socialists. 2088 00:44:13.669 --> 00:44:14.429 So that's my opinion. 2089 00:44:14.469 --> 00:44:15.810 I'm just telling you that upfront. 2090 00:44:16.389 --> 00:44:16.729 But 2091 00:44:16.909 --> 00:44:17.929 the whole pitch 2092 00:44:18.389 --> 00:44:19.110 to voters. 2093 00:44:19.729 --> 00:44:19.739 About 2094 00:44:20.500 --> 00:44:21.560 James Tallarico, 2095 00:44:21.850 --> 00:44:23.239 is he's a moderate. 2096 00:44:23.449 --> 00:44:24.889 He's almost a Republican. 2097 00:44:25.310 --> 00:44:25.320 Uh, 2098 00:44:25.489 --> 00:44:26.600 Mary Peltola, 2099 00:44:26.810 --> 00:44:27.489 oh my gosh, 2100 00:44:27.689 --> 00:44:28.570 so Republican. 2101 00:44:29.209 --> 00:44:30.729 Dan Osborne in Nebraska, 2102 00:44:31.010 --> 00:44:31.280 he's, 2103 00:44:31.370 --> 00:44:33.469 he's so not a Democrat 2104 00:44:33.600 --> 00:44:34.969 and so not a socialist, 2105 00:44:35.090 --> 00:44:36.189 he's an independent. 2106 00:44:37.560 --> 00:44:38.629 All these people, 2107 00:44:38.800 --> 00:44:43.419 the whole pitch is to basically

fool normal independent voters, 2108 00:44:43.560 --> 00:44:43.750 uh, 2109 00:44:43.760 --> 00:44:45.360 that these people are not Democrats because 2110 00:44:45.360 --> 00:44:47.000 they wouldn't normally vote for Democrats. 2111 00:44:47.239 --> 00:44:49.159 They're trying to fool them into voting 2112 00:44:49.159 --> 00:44:51.709 for these independent candidates and moderate candidates. 2113 00:44:52.040 --> 00:44:52.340 So 2114 00:44:52.760 --> 00:44:56.219 an endorsement from Bernie Sanders would be the worst possible thing for them. 2115 00:44:56.899 --> 00:44:57.929 So why would he do that? 2116 00:44:58.100 --> 00:44:59.770 So I have no on tons of these people. 2117 00:45:00.060 --> 00:45:00.659 Tallarico, 2118 00:45:00.780 --> 00:45:01.250 by the way, 2119 00:45:01.659 --> 00:45:02.020 here, 2120 00:45:02.139 --> 00:45:04.860 a rally with Bernie Sanders in the same state. 2121 00:45:04.939 --> 00:45:06.090 What did Tallarico do? 2122 00:45:06.500 --> 00:45:09.280 Tallarico skips the Bernie Sanders rally in Texas. 2123 00:45:09.820 --> 00:45:09.979 They're, 2124 00:45:10.100 --> 00:45:11.620 they're campaigning for him. 2125 00:45:11.699 --> 00:45:13.120 He didn't even go to the rally. 2126 00:45:13.500 --> 00:45:14.219 Bernie Sanders, 2127 00:45:14.699 --> 00:45:15.600 one of the biggest, 2128 00:45:15.770 --> 00:45:16.010 you know, 2129 00:45:16.260 --> 00:45:17.500 figures in the political space. 2130 00:45:17.580 --> 00:45:17.860 So. 2131 00:45:18.320 --> 00:45:18.469 Uh, 2132 00:45:18.560 --> 00:45:18.870 every, 2133 00:45:19.080 --> 00:45:20.679 every piece of these types of candidates, 2134 00:45:20.800 --> 00:45:21.439 Peltola, 2135 00:45:21.560 --> 00:45:21.750 uh, 2136 00:45:21.949 --> 00:45:23.239 a lot of them are up in the 90s now. 2137 00:45:23.320 --> 00:45:24.540 I've been buying them all the way up. 2138 00:45:24.879 --> 00:45:25.000 Uh, 2139 00:45:25.040 --> 00:45:25.919 but I've mentioned this, 2140 00:45:25.959 --> 00:45:26.270 uh, 2141 00:45:26.280 --> 00:45:26.350 before, 2142 00:45:26.399 --> 00:45:29.080 it's one of my favorite markets on all of the prediction market space 2143 00:45:29.080 --> 00:45:31.229 right now because I just don't see why there would be any reason. 2144 00:45:31.520 --> 00:45:34.459 There's always risk because it's just one guy and he can just blurt something out. 2145 00:45:34.760 --> 00:45:35.719 So there's a little risk there. 2146 00:45:35.959 --> 00:45:36.479 But generally speaking, 2147 00:45:36.645 --> 00:45:37.405 I feel pretty good 2148 00:45:37.564 --> 00:45:39.334 in that market that Bernie Sanders will not 2149 00:45:39.445 --> 00:45:40.864 endorse any moderates 2150 00:45:41.004 --> 00:45:41.864 in this campaign. 2151 00:45:42.044 --> 00:45:42.284 OK, 2152 00:45:42.405 --> 00:45:43.885 that's all the time that we have for today. 2153 00:45:44.004 --> 00:45:47.844 Join us at predictableShow.com and get your Senate Fantasy League team in. 2154 00:45:48.084 --> 00:45:49.485 It's at senatefantassy.com. 2155 00:45:49.564 --> 00:45:52.024 It's free and you can win thousands of dollars in prizes. 2156 00:45:52.324 --> 00:45:54.165 Senate Fantasy.com. 2157 00:45:54.405 --> 00:45:55.044 We'll see you tomorrow.