Bản chép lời đầy đủ của Pigskins Picks Szn 4 Ep 11: NCAA Week 0

this is not a team that travels well. And I just think a week one matchup at Dulk for a program and team that is so hungry to start the year off well. I know last season you started three and but you finished five and eight on the year. Like not good enough. and that's that's the problem is like, you know You have seven wins last two years, Florida State. The last season, Florida State started the year off really hot. You know, they started the year playing against Alabama. Again, that huge two touchdown, you know, win. Then they play their two teams that are I would consider closer to New Mexico State's caliber and Eastern Tech Eastern Texas AM. They won 77 to 3 and they won 66 to 10 to Kent State. After that, you know, they they then lost four in a row. They were four and four, and then they, you know. went one and three over their last four games and finished the year five and eight. They need to have a better start this year. So I'm taking the over. Florida State's offense last year ranked twenty-second in the country in points per game. Most of the team is back offensively. You do have a different quarterback than you have Ashton Daniels versus Tommy Castellanos. To be honest with you, I think Daniels has a higher ceiling than Castellanos. Castellanos was Fun at times, but very much when she like figured out his first read, he was pretty, you know, useless. The question is gonna be what this defense does. They were ranked 43rd last year in the nation. I know when they played bad teams, they were able to really beat up on him, which is why I'm also fine taking the over because I just think if they get the short fields, they're gonna score. I just think Florida State's third line of is 41 and a half points. I think they're gonna hit that. I think this is realistically a game where they can have 45 points, and I need one touchdown by New Mexico. and I think New Mexico will get a s score at least once. I don't think Florida State's defense is at this, you know, elite level that they're gonna necessarily shut them out. I mean last year Florida State, even when they played well, they they still gave up ten points to they still gave up ten points to Kent State. Eastern Texas St. I think they gave up three, but like outside of that, you know, you gave up third forty six to Virginia, thirty four to Pitt, twenty to Stanford, twenty four to Clemson, who was a terrible Clemson team, twenty one to NC State. Forty to Florida. It's it's it's a game that and the spread itself I believe is thirty eight and half points, which I they could obviously cover that, but I just feel like the fifty two is I'll buy the the half point down to minus one twenty five and just roll with that because in case New Mexico starts out hot or gets any kind of garbage time touchdown to push us over the edge. I just think that Fort State should be scoring in the mid forties against a team that also has a lot of questions. Their offense is very very much retooled. So I think that we

may see a slow offense, especially in the first half of that game, where Fort State can really like force three and outs and then just go right down and score quick. 'Cause that's one thing they did well last year was they could score and they could score off big plays and they have all those guys back. You still got Deuce Robinson there, you still got Mc Makai Denzi, you still like got the weapons. The running back room is still very, you know, honestly, I think a better running back from in last season. And so it's I I the team needs to start hot and start quick. And that is is just another reason why it's like I don't necessarily like worry about how this game's gonna be. it should be a four to say domination. if we're just being honest. And if it isn't then it's just another year of a lot of question marks, but I think between Quintravius, Wisner and then Uzumain, Quoma like There's and Sam Singleton, like the three of them, you know, Chroma being last there last year, Singleton being there last year. Singleton, you know, had three hundred and sixty yards on fifty carries, Chroma had four hundred yards on seventy carries. I mean, they both averaged very, you know, good numbers. Let's see Chroma getting the touch get a few touchdowns, you know, this week. And then Wisner last year, you Was was very good for Texas, you know, 600 yards and on 130 carries, averaging almost five yards. I he had a thousand yard season twenty-four. Last year he kind of fell out the rotation a little bit, but I'm I'm happy to take him there. So I just expect a a full estate domination and the over to hit. So Ryan's first play. He is going out to sunny California and USC and San Jose State over 16 and a half. We know USC's got a high powered offense. And we also know that San Jose gives up lot of points. Ryan fully expects four you USC to be scoring over forty two, which I think there's a chance they're breaking fifty. I think this USC dolphins has got a lot of opportunity to be a very, very dangerous team. Like, they're not tall I know we did the big time breakdown, I didn't have them highly r ranked, but it's a team that since that episode I I I've starting to maybe buy more of the Kool-Aid than I share, drink more of the Kool-Aid. It's they got some weapons there. I think Jaden Maiava is a incredibly underrated quarterback. The defense is where the question marks are, but it's a it's most of the team's back. I do think San Jose State's gonna find a way to score, you know, a two touchdowns or so, you know, give you fourteen, maybe twenty one. And if they do that, you're over should be hitting 'cause I again USC should be able to score out well against San Jose State. They just said. The they've played these two teams have played before. I we've watched San Jose State over the years, you know, have games, especially early season games. You know, last season's early game against Texas, they let up thirty eight, but like they didn't score that game, unfortunately. You

know, two years ago they they started the year out early with, you know, Oregon State week one. Given up 42, they put when they last time they play against USC. It was 56, 28. Like it wouldn't shock me if we're getting that kind of game again. USC's defense has definitely been under you know questionable the last few seasons. Since they made the transition to the Big Ten, we know they've not played Big Ten style defense. I'm not saying it's that same team from 23, for instance, but that 23 team was because that twenty three team Nick Nash. Nick Nash was awesome. But I just I think that from a you know offensive wise, they should be able to get something going. you would think. 'cause, you know, they're a team that they're not elite by any means, but they are a fun team that always plays extremely hard. You know, it's a lot of new guys, you know, it's a whole new offense. So it may take a second to figure this out out on the from the receiver standpoint. They do bring in Luke Weaver, who came from Hawaii, who had a very modest season last year, but I think you're gonna be ripping it. This is gonna be a game that they're gonna have to try to score. And so they're gonna be ripping it. And again, we just don't know, you know, USC USC has made, you know, strides on defense, attempting just various between high school and the transfer portal, though it just can always take a day you know, a second to come up to speed. And that defense, again, has a few changes, but it's nothing out of the ordinary, but it's still interesting to see what's gonna happen. I just think this this I agree with Ryan on the over here. I think that the US C is gonna just put up enough points themselves. Now, play number two for Ryan. He is going North Dakota State over, I believe it's Jacksonville State. I'll just double check. And he's taking them to not only cover, he's taking it them to cover six and a half. I believe the line is seven, which is fine. It's minus one minus one ten at seven. Ryan wants to take the six and a half to So you just cover the hook, it's minus one twenty. It really is a Fine, like to buy the half point. We know what North Dakota State is. North Dakota State has been nothing but I know last season was, I guess, technically a a a a down year for them compared to what they have done. But they they're a program that wins and wins a lot and has been extremely successful. They've had a ton of guys go to the NFL. Like it's a really impressive team when you think about it. and you know, they got they got dogs back across the board. You're gonna have, you know, kind of new play caller, Nathan Hayes under center. But the one thing I've noticed with North Korta State is for the last decade now, they've had guys, they've had guys who can just it they translate the NFL like they they they have good good players. And it's a home game for them. And then being it's a home game, Jacksonville State's got seven new guys on the offense. Same quarterback, Caden Creel. Caden Creel was was decent last year. Nothing crazy. They had a couple touchdowns. so he he's a little bit of a can can move, if I'm not mistaken, little little mobile niss to him, but it's definitely you know, he had fifteen hundred yards in the air and a thousand yards on the ground. So like he's gonna He's gonna run. But it's it's the it's it's fine, I think, at the end of the day. Like I I do think this game will be fun. I don't know if we're gonna see a ton of points. That what's gonna be the difference maker in this game is the defense of Jacksonville State. It's almost the entire defense back, but again, the offense for North Dakota State is the exact same offense outside of a right tackle. It's everyone's back. Have they have an experienced team? It's it's again, and they've a team that you know over the last couple years, they've shown up in in their quote unquote big matches. You know, a couple years back when they made Colorado, they should have beaten Colorado outright, but they didn't, but they they played the hell out of Colorado. it's Nathan Hayes is now stepping in at quarterback. He is sat behind Cole Payton and he sat behind Cam Miller. Now, for those who don't know Cole Payton. Cole Payton was a great player at you know the for North Dakota State. And he was he was very, very good player. He was I mean he was drafted last year. He was a fifth round pick. I know and I know he's not gonna play a ton, he's not gonna play, but He was was a very athletic guy. You know, he kinda waited his turn until last season. Last year was was great. I mean he had s sixteen touchdowns, four picks and on twenty seven hundred passing yards, then on a seventy two percent completion percentage. Then he had another seven hundred yards on the ground, thirteen touchdowns. I mean finished his college college career with with you know over thirty one hundred passing yards, twenty one touchdowns, six picks, and then thirty one touchdowns on the ground because he's he's a was a dual threat monster. so it's You had him and then you had Cam Miller, another NFL player. NFL guy. who again, it's just like the team quietly like they pump out dudes. I mean Miller's Miller's last season twenty four, you know, he put up Latin Villy's last he five years there, started the last three years there. 2,000 yards his sophomore year or his second season, thirteen and five in the air, another fifteen on the ground. Then he had nineteen on in the air and thirteen on the ground and twenty four three and twenty twenty four thirty thirty two hundred yards, thirty-three touchdowns, four picks, twelve on the ground. Like this team is known to pump out quarterbacks. So it's really just now it's it's Hayes' turn. It's Nathan Hayes' turn. You know, they've had two guys. He's behind my mind, two guys who were in the NFL now. Two quarterbacks. It's his turn. I I just think that they're going to start fast that they always have. They have weapons. And at the end of the day, it's just

it's you're watching so much of a defense for Jacksonville State that I don't know if they're going to be able to stop this North Dakota State team that should have a good offense this year again, as they've had for the last five years, four years, really since the turn of the turn of the of COVID. This has been an offense and a team that's been extremely successful. winning twelve, twelve, thirteen games every year. So I like to buy in the half and I I don't I you can take at minus seven. You just risk the push. I think this game has a chance for North Korta State to like impose their will. if they can just hold Jacksonville State offense in a little bit and and you know make Caden Creole feel the pressure. It's a very new off it's almost an entire new offensive line. It's four new starters, it's a new tight end, it's three new receivers. It's one of those things. we're gonna see. We're gonna see there. Cause I just I think it's a great opportunity for them to take care of business. And that's why I would take the them to cover the spread. It's it's also a home game from like I mentioned before, for North Dakota State, a team that I would not want to have to travel to, to be honest. You know, there's some projections out there. They think this could be a a you know double digit win. I don't necessarily know if it's gonna be a double digit win. I do think though that the North Coast State covers the seven. And finally, my last pick. Man, man, I've done so much research on this game, and so I just know it's gonna backfire. I am taking NC State plus seven. Plus seven. I'm buying the point and a half. I'm just gonna right now on the live stream, I'm just gonna double check. That it's still five and a half, because I feel like the line probably actually moved. Which, if it did, that's annoying. But we're gonna just double check live. So give me a second, folks, just to see online what we're looking at. Alright. The line for this game. It's it is four now. Well that sucks. Well, I'm gonna be on honest with you folks. If it's four, I will change the play and I will take it as four because now I don't believe what I was going to take is gonna even be yeah, my seven was now minus one seventy five. I had it at minus one forty. So I will be a man of my word and I will take them at plus four. Alright, so I'm not buying the push, I'm gonna just ignore plus four. Let's go on to the reasonings. Virginia has covered the spread in six of their last they're six and one against the spread their last seven games versus unranked opponents. NC State is and four in their o against the spread their last four games last year. So why am I taking NC State? NC State is twelve and one in the last thirteen openers under head coach David Dormeaton. NC State has also won six of the last seven games versus Virginia and has not lost in the state of Virginia since two thousand and six. Now, I know Virginia's coming off an 11-3 season. They were the you know number one, they had the best overall record in the ACC. They didn't make the ACC championship because of all the tiebreakers and stuff. Let's look at offense. NC State brings a much more experienced offense, but Virginia brings the most experienced offensive line in college. And they also have 31 grad transfers or grad players. But Bo Pudula. And the new offense at Virginia is where I think the difference lies. I know Virginia just can't is coming off one of the best seasons they've had in k forever. So I get it. You're like, why would you go against them at home? Fun little fact too, that if Virginia wins, it'll be their seven hundredth career win for the university, which is pretty impressive. Offensively go for ancient state. It's the same old line. It's again a couple new wide receivers, but they still have Kenyon Jackson there, who, you know, didn't have a huge year for them, but you know, it was decent. They have a new running back in Duke Scott. Not new is not the right word. It's he's now the the the Bel Cow. He had six hundred almost six hundred yards last year and 160 carries, but they have CJ Bailey. CJ Bailey is is that guy. Defensively, you have a couple, you know, most of the defense is back. the the linebacking group is is a new group so that's the question mark there. You go to Virginia. They have the offensive line help outside of that. It's all of the wide receivers are new and your running back's new. You have a new quarterback down bo you know Bob Pabula, who there's some questions on. I know people thought he was going to go to Virginia Tech and follow his, you know, old coach James Franklin. He did not He was fine. He played better against non conference teams last year in the SEC at Missouri than against the conference. So that factors. And it's also I I you know, when you have a team like Virginia who is not great and then has a great season last year, you know, the defense has got their, you know, their secondary is is kind of gutted. Front should be good again, but the second year was kind of gutted. It's all new guys there. And I don't I'm just saying I'm gonna say all this that I don't necessarily think that NC State wins this game. I would not take NC State in the money line. I would take NC State plus the four because this is, I think, a one-possession game, potentially just the field goal difference. And that comes down to there's a lot of injuries right now for NC State. A lot of injuries. I mean, there's a lot of injuries for Virginia. Virginia folks. I'm just gonna read you real quick. I'm gonna pull up the list. Because this was a little concerning. When I saw the Ryan earlier today sent me the breakdown of the rosters. So Virginia, as of earlier today, by the way, this was or late last night, NTC's got a couple guys that are out, you know, Isaiah Crowell, Teddy Hoffman, Gus Ritchie, Ryan Van, Tyree Cooper, Carmelo McKenzie, JJ Ferguson. Seven guys. Virginia has Corey Costner and Cam Robinson who are questionable. And then who are

out for them. Rico Flores Jr., Tim Ham, Dylan Newton Short, Tristan Ward, Alex Dunn, Salman D.B. Jack Stevens, Isaiah Reese, Chase Morrison, Tyler Simmons, Noah Harstow, Grant Ellinger, Isaiah Robinson, Lucas Ungar, Ezekiel Larry, Bull Richardson. I'm just gonna tell you right now. I just can tell you right now. That's a total Sixteen guys are out with them potential Yeah. Who knows what? Cam Bobitson is questionable, he's just throwing in a linebacker as well. That's not good. Tyler Simmons and you know they're they're they're front, they're deep Chase Morrison. These are not necessarily guys who are starting, but this is your depth pieces. That's not good. It's A lot on the defense too. It's a lot of defensive guys. So that also has me feel like, okay, that's why the line moved from five and a half, by the way, because they have so many guys who are who are out already. That is the the you know, yeah, Rico Flores, one of their starting wide receivers, out. That's not good. That's not good. Isaiah Robinson, a backup wide receiver, he's also out. That's not good. It's it's a lot, it's just it's a lot. A lot of pieces that I would not feel comfortable with. So I'm gonna take the healthier team. I'm gonna take the team that I I know what the quarterback is. This is year three for CJ Bailey. He's got potentially one of the highest ceilings in college football. I'll take the chances with them to keep it close. I would have liked it at seven, then four, but for the pod purposes, I will take them at four. So those our picks. Those are our four picks for the week. Now on to some news. We'll start the shortest news. 22 Watwell was traded from the Dolphins back to the Rams for running back Jaquez Hunter. I find this really funny that's The Dolphins have such a dumpster fire in the wide receiver room that they trade one of the guys who's supposed to start for them for another running back that I don't know if I can make sense of it. All I can think of is that the Dolphins are going to not be very good and people are gonna say that it's all Malik Willis's fault and it just isn't. It just isn't. I mean right now, Jalen Tilbert, Mike Wash Malik Washington and Caleb Douglas your starting wide receivers. With Chris Bell, maybe Jalen Rager. Didn't even know he was still in the league. Jayquez Honor is is going to be running back four for them at best. I mean, you have Devon H. in there, Ali Gordon, Jalen Wright. It just it seemed a little head scratching for a guy who 2 2 out my expectation would have been that he would have started. Maybe not. Maybe I just am over shooting how good 2 2 is in my mind. Leonard Williams, defensive end from the CLC Hawks, signs a three year ninety million dollar extension, getting 58 million, 56 million of that guaranteed. Good for him. Right before the season starts. Paid a lot of money now between him, Witherspoon, you know, and now you gotta pay a lot of the de that defense. It is a win now situation in Seattle because you have

Sam Battle on such a team friendly deal. Sam plays, you know, like he did last year, which wasn't elite, but was definitely better than, you know, a good portion of the league, you have to pay him a lot more money when his contract's up. And then you start having issues with trying to keep the team together. The Packers are expecting a suspension for Josh Jacobs. It is not known what the game is gonna be, you know, how long. But I would say we're probably looking at six games, maybe eight games. the Packers today, I will read another stat from the Packers today. Packers. He is Josh was formally charged with two misdemeanors. So that's It's not good. I would think that he's gonna have to be no less than six games, probably eight games. I don't think they'll do more. The NFL has never been that harsh on suspending p you know players, especially good players for heinous activities aga especially against women. They've gotten you know, the only really one that ever was bad was Ray Rice, and that was that because of getting him on video? I believe so. If it was just a he should Seashed. I don't know if it would have been the whole season, maybe two games. Watched it happen too many times over the years. So I bet you we're looking at six to eight games, personally. So news out in Cleveland. Deshaun Watson was named starter for the Cleveland Browns. It feels like it's been forever since we last played football. I don't know if that's gonna necessarily be the answer for them. And just because Shader's not starting does not mean that Shader will not be playing at at some point this season. Like if I'm a Shudder fan, it's like don't I would tell him sure be upset you're not selling day one, but like don't expect Deshaun to thrive. That that's the thing is that team is I think a quarterback away from being a really good team. They have all other pieces there. They just don't have a real quarterback, as I put it. I need to see more from Sanders to call him a real quarterback. Saints signed two-time all-pro kicker Daniel Carlson. I do like this move a lot. I think the Saints are more one of the more underrated teams in football. Last season was a great stepping point. Tyler Shrook played awesome. Ryan, who hated on him, thought he was gonna be terrible. I said, Ryan, you were wrong. Shruk was arguably the best of the rookie quarterbacks last year. Dart had his flashes, but Shuck played the full year. Cam, you know, should have a good second season. I like Chook. I think that they also have some weapons around him. I hurts. It hurts not to have Jordan Tyson. That was why you drafted Jordan Tyson was to give another weapon for him. But like the team is is one that, you know, there's a very good chance they could win this out. Wouldn't shock me at all. K Sean Booty was traded from the New England Patriots to the Houston Texans. The trade was for Jalen Reed, safety, Jalen Reed, safety linebacker, you know, kind of Swiss Army Knife flyer, and seven and a seventh round pick. This kind of puts the end of the saga of of the Booty saga. As a Patriot fan of I'm sad Boutet left, but I understand. He's wanted to get out when he saw the writing on the wall that they were bringing in Dobbs, that they brought in AJ Brown. Like it ch he just knew where he was gonna be on the depth chart. And realistically he's wide receiver three at best. At best in the current situation. And he wants to go somewhere to get more targets. And so like I don't have an issue. People that are like, look, the Patriots got no value for him. That just shows the league didn't really value him. Like Patriot fans. Now, again, I thought he was super productive in the limited amount of snaps or limited amount of targets. He was extremely productive. But Texans needed a wide receiver. Now I've read some discourse from talk people talking about the following day, Calvin Austin for the Giants towards ACL, and maybe if the Patriots waited a day, they could have gone gone down that route and done Giants get Boute, maybe Patriots get have a way to do Bhutan to pick and get K round tip. I mean maybe. But at the same time, play has to happen. We're two weeks away? From the season. A week away from the season starting? So two weeks? Two weeks away. What am I saying? A week away. Ha So a I I get it. The ninth, it's only two weeks from one two weeks from this past Wednesday. Christian Gonzalez, still no contact with the Patriots. You know, people sub questioning is it trouble in paradise? I think one thing no one's talking about in this whole situation as a Patriot fan, obviously I want the Gonzo O'Deal done. The deal wouldn't kick in till 2028. Gonzo's under contract for the 2026 season and the 2027 season. Right now, what New England's doing is more or less trying to just get ahead of it because they know next offseason they're going to want to try, try to get the Drake May deal done. Just to lock you down long term. And it would be, you know, preferable to get another large guarantee contract in now because it will hit go into effect here before Drake's goes into effect. 'Cause I think that's something I don't know if people most people understand the way contracts work, but you sign the deal now, it does not go into effect like tomorrow. Like some of that guaranteed money, but the cap hit wise is g is the f following. It goes into the next league year. And that's why you can have these guys sign them when they do, is because they know like, it's gonna be, you know, three years from now is until the big hit comes. So I I don't I don't necessarily love the way that they're handling it. But you gotta pay Gonzo at the end of the day. You do. Yeah, and he knows that. So he's trying to use that leverage. I guess my only concern is that Gonzo's trying to get a proportion of the cap, future cap versus the cap now. Patriots have offered him the money that he'd be paid now, the highest. But he doesn't want to be suddenly outpaid in two years by, you know, five

guys. It's kinda like how looking at the wide receiver market when Jetta's and Chase got their contracts, the two IFPA contracts, and then suddenly all these other guys are getting the same amount money for what I would consider lower tier wide receivers. gonna just show you from a contract perspective. Yeah. Chase signs his. Justin signed his. Now Zay Flowers is making as much as Justin. Drake's making more than Justin. C D's making is making they're making all making more than C D. These are all the guys who are the same age, by the way, when they signed. All twenty five, except for Drake. Drake is twenty four. It's one of those things that like when Justin signed, he was the highest paid. Now Justin is fifth. Chase signed, he's now well behind JSN. Like it's it's I get it. I get it. So that's what he's that is what he's trying to do, Gonzo, is like how can I sign a deal and have it Protect me. You know, we can go to the the c we can go to the corner market and look at, you know, Witherspoon just signed the biggest deal ever at one thirty two, which passed Trent McDuffie's, which is one twenty four, which was done earlier this year. Last year was JC Oren at a hundred, a you know, Sauce Gardner at one twenty. Kinda makes you realize that like someone like you know, when Stingley signed you know, Patzertan signed in twenty twenty four, it was ninety six. Which was the second most ever at the time, behind Marlon Humphreys ninety seven and a half in twenty twenty. Now it's six and then Sting Lee signed at ninety. Like, I don't know if you're gonna f I I don't know if Gonzo should be suddenly making, you know, thirty million more than than some of these other guys. That's that's Where I'm coming from from it. But we will see. It now leads to my last note, which is an interesting one. I guess I just don't get what the appeal is to billionaires and just being stupid. Being stupid. Jeff York saga, one of the comers of the Forty Niners. A hundred and forty dollars, trailer park, prostitution. What are you doing? You're going to an Ohio trailer park and paying for Sexual favors? You are a billionaire man. Was it really worth a hundred and forty dollars? Was it really worth a hundred and forty dollars? I don't know. I don't know. That to me is just There's so much to unpack with this. I just wanted to mention it's going to be a little messy. I the NFL's not commented on like what kind of potential punishment could come from this. I don't I don't know what you would do, to be honest. I don't know. It's more like a personal thing, but you are a team owner. I don't know if they suddenly can like justify like them losing picks or anything like that. That I don't necessarily believe, but we're gonna we're gonna follow that story. That story's not gonna go away tomorrow. Like that's gonna be something that you know maybe a few weeks from now we'll we'll check in on the Shello Park, prostitution, what are you doing saga for $140, $160, depending on what some sources say. But folks, that's it. We got week zero. It's coming up. Saturday can't get here quick enough. As always, thank you so much for listening. Make sure to like, share, subscribe, tell your friends about us. We're back. Football's back, dude. I'm so excited. Next week we get to talk. Next week we get to talk week one college football and then week one NFL right after that. We'll preview the NFL, you know, set Wednesday and Thursday games since those are before the real season begins. So as always, I'm Dave. Thanks so much for listening. And as Ryan always says, Wink wink.