BẢN CHÉP ÂM THANH 🔗
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Welcome back to another deep dive episode of Geeks, Geezers and Googlization.
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I'm once again thrilled to turn over the mic to my
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special co host. Let's give a big warm welcome
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to Eli and Casey. You know, you sent us over a
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really interesting piece this week from Ira s Wolf,
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the future of work global thought leader, which is quite a title.
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It certainly is. Sets a high bar. Right. And the the core idea
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he puts forward, it really grabbed my attention. He's arguing that the biggest
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danger facing businesses isn't, you know, some external threat out
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there. Not the usual suspects then, like tech disruption or a
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new competitor? No. Not primarily. He says it's more of an
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internal blind spot, this, delusion almost that
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they've already adapted enough to everything that's changing. Okay. So the
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threat is internal perception. That's compelling. We're often so focused
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outwards, aren't we? Looking for the next big wave. Exactly. And Wolf's pointing the
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finger right back inside saying the real weakness is how we see see our own
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adaptability. And he's actually coined a term for
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adaptive perception disorder, APD. APD. Okay.
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Yeah. It's basically this gap. The gap between how much change is really happening out
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there and how much an organization thinks it's keeping up. They underestimate
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the change and overestimate their own response. So it's a mismatch.
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A dangerous one, presumably. Totally. It's like a self imposed limit on growth,
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on survival even. And what's really tricky, I imagine, is
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that this APD could look like, well,
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like business as usual, maybe even like strength. That's the really
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counterintuitive part he highlights. Things that look like stability or
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resilience maybe might actually be masking this disorder. It's
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hiding in plain sight. Almost paradoxical. Right. And he uses this
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quote from, doctor Ava Shiffman to really drive it home. She says,
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APD is like being in the eye of a hurricane and calling it a light
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breeze. Wow. That paints a picture a massive disconnect
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from reality. Doesn't it? Just sticks with you, that level of, well,
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potentially dangerous underestimation. It really does. It speaks volumes about
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complacency. Yeah. So okay. If APD is the subtle
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internal thing, what are the signs? What are the, you know, symptoms Wolf points
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out that we might actually recognize day to day? Well, he lists a
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few things that felt, pretty familiar. One that jumped out at me was
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outdated strategy decks. Ah, yes. The
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PowerPoint graveyard. Exactly. Specifically, ones that haven't
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really changed much since, say, before the pandemic, like Yeah.
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2019 thinking driving 2025 decisions.
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That's a big one given everything that's happened. Digital acceleration,
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work changes, consumer shifts, using a pre 2020
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map now seems Risky. Right? Yeah. It suggests those massive shifts
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just haven't fully sunk in at a strategic level. Makes you really question the shelf
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life of strategy these days. It needs to be much more dynamic.
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Absolutely. And then there's this other one that, kinda made me raise an eyebrow. He
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talks about leaders maybe in 2025 still congratulating themselves
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on handling 2020. Like dwelling on past glories.
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Yeah. It's celebrating that past when, well, maybe,
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just maybe, ignoring the brand new challenges right in front of them. It's looking backward
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when you need to be looking forward. That's a good point. Does that past success
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even guarantee future agility? Weathering one storm doesn't
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mean you're ready for the next totally different one. Are they building capacity now?
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Right. Are they resting on laurels? And then there are those, you know, company wide
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meetings or town halls. Lots talk like, we're on track.
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Uh-huh. Vague positivity. Super vague. But
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if you press for details, like, what is the track? How are we
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measuring it against, you know, today's reality? Yeah. Often, there's no
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clear answer. It's just confidence without substance.
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That lack of clear metrics, clear definitions, that's telling.
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It
Load full transcript
suggests either they don't really grasp the changes needed or maybe
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they just don't wanna face the hard specifics. Easier to say north without a
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compass. And Wolf just nails it, I think. Mhmm. He says these are signs
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of strength. It's change blindness dressed up as
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confidence. Oh, I like that phrasing. Change blindness dressed up as
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confidence. It implies the organization is so convinced it's okay,
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it literally can't see the warning sign. Pretty much. So, okay, those are the
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general symptoms. But he also breaks APD down further into these,
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telltale subtypes, more specific ways it shows up. Okay. Interesting. What are those? He's
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got four. The first is perceptual change deficiency, PCD. This is the don't
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worry. It's just temporary mindset. The this too shall pass approach
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even when it's clearly not passing. Exactly. His analogy is
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brilliant. Facing a tidal wave with just an umbrella. You feel like
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you're doing something, but you fundamentally misjudged the scale of the threat. That
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really hits the denial aspect, doesn't it? Refusing to see that the change might be
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permanent. What drives that, I wonder? Wishful thinking,
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lack of data. Could be all of those. Then there's change blindness
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syndrome, CBS. This is where the signs have been obvious. Ages.
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Wolf says, like, three years loudly and with neon
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signs. Okay. So really unmissable signs. You'd think. But the reaction
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is still, woah, where did that come from? Like, they genuinely didn't see
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it. They're so stuck in their ways. They're blind to the new reality right there.
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CBS, that points to a failure in environmental scanning, maybe.
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We're just not connecting the dots internally. Why miss the neon signs?
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Information overload perhaps or just nobody listening? Good question.
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The third one is adaptive overconfidence disorder, AOD. This
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is the classic, oh, we're great at change, always have been.
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The legacy argument, we handled y two k. We can handle anything.
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Exactly. But Wolf pushes back hard.
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Really? When was the last big adaptation? 02/2008. That
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one software upgrade. He points out it's often based on
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isolated, maybe outdated examples, not proof of current
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capability. Yeah. AOD sounds dangerous because it creates this
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false security blanket. Past success in a different world
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doesn't mean you're fit for today's race, like a marathoner thinking they're ready for a
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sprint, as you said. Nicely put. And the final subtype,
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strategic narcissism, s n. Strategic narcissism.
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Sounds serious. It is. This is the belief that, the market
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will come back to us eventually. They're so convinced of their own inherent brilliance, their
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product's superiority. But they refuse to see the market has just moved on, found
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something faster, cheaper, better. Precisely. It's this internal
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arrogance, this belief that history guarantees future relevance. Even when
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everything's changed, you see it with established players sometimes, dismissing the new kids on
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the block. Right. Until it's too late. Okay. So
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PCD, CBS, AOD, SN,
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different flavors of the same basic problem. But what are the
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actual, like, tangible consequences? Why should a business leader or
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even an employee really care about spotting this
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APD? What's the real cost? Well, Wolf spells out
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some pretty stark outcomes. He says companies with APD end up building
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their whole systems, their processes, everything on assumptions that
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are just obsolete. So building on shaky ground.
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Totally. Think about pouring money into tech that's about to be irrelevant
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or training people for jobs that won't exist soon. It's a huge
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misdirection of effort and money. Wasted resources, investing in horse drawn
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carriages when cars are taking over as you mentioned earlier. Exactly that. And
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he also talks about how these organizations tend to stick to their comfort zones,
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familiar processes, familiar tech, even if it's actually holding them back. That
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resistance to leaving the familiar, it strangles innovation, doesn't it?
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Prevents them from building the new muscles they need. They get stuck
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in an echo chamber, reinforcing the old ways. Yeah. And the image he uses to
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capture the end result is chilling. He quotes the
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doctor Eli Burnham. Organizations with APD don't burn out.
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They rot quietly. Rot quietly.
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That's powerful. Not a big explosion, but a slow internal
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decay. Right. An insidious decline that might not be obvious until it's
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very, very advanced. It really highlights those unseen long term
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costs of just failing to keep up. Incredibly impactful.
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Okay. So the picture of the problem is clear. The symptoms, the
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types, the grim potential costs. What's the solution
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then? What's Wolf's antidote to this adaptive perception disorder? He
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calls it radical AQ, adaptability intelligence. AQ,
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like IQ or EQ, but for adaptability. Exactly. It's not just reacting to
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change. It's proactively building the ability to adapt, making it a
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core competency, almost like a muscle you have to constantly exercise. Makes sense. So
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how do you build that muscle? What are the key parts of building or maybe
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rebuilding this AQ? He lays out a few critical things. First, you have to actively
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challenge your existing knowledge. To question everything. Pretty much. It
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requires, intellectual humility. Being willing to
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say, maybe what we know isn't true anymore. Being open to new
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data, even if it's uncomfortable or contradicts current
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beliefs. That sounds like a major cultural shift for many places.
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Admitting you might not have all the answers, that the old ways aren't sacred. It
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really is. It demands continuous learning, a healthy dose of
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skepticism about the status quo. Second, he says,
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push beyond the comfort zone. Get uncomfortable. Liberally.
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Seek out new experiences, try new approaches, experiment,
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embrace a bit of calculated risk to actually build those adaptive skills. So not just
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talking about agility, but actually doing things that require it. Learning by doing,
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essentially. Exactly. And third, and this feels crucial,
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actively seek out and listen to uncomfortable truths.
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Oh, the stuff people might be hesitant to say. Yeah.
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Foster a culture where it's okay to disagree, where critical feedback is
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actually welcomed, not punished, where leaders genuinely wanna hear
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perspectives that challenge their own views. Creating psychological safety,
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basically, so people can point out the blind spots without fear. Absolutely.
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And ultimately, Wolf says, building AQ boils down to
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constantly asking that really tough question. What if we're not as ready as
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we think we are? Constant self assessment.
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Relentless improvement. Yes. A fundamental commitment to evolving,
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not stagnating. Okay. So wrapping it
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all up then, the big takeaway from Ira Wolf's Wolf's piece
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isn't about some monster under the bed, some external disruptor.
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No. The biggest threat, he argues, is internal.
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It's that, that fantasy, the fantasy that we've already adapted
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enough. That's such a vital point. It shifts the focus dramatically. It's about self
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awareness, about looking inward first. Well, it really makes you think, doesn't it, about
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your own company or places you observe. Are they truly evolving? Are they
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meeting the pace of change? Or are they just confidently narrating their own decline
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completely unaware? Yeah. Are they mistaking routine for readiness? That's the
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critical question Wolf leaves us with. Because as he says, in this age of
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nonstop change, the real risk isn't just disruption itself. It's
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the delusion that you're immune, that you're already prepared. Exactly. And, you know,
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if this whole deep dive into APD has struck a chord, if listeners are
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thinking, maybe this applies here. Wolf actually mentions a
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tool in his article, their AQ team audit. So a way to
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potentially measure this to get beyond just gut feeling? Seems like
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it. A way for organizations to try and objectively assess their actual
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adaptability intelligence, their AQ level. Interesting. A call to action
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then. Move from assumption to assessment. Yeah. So we really just encourage
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everyone listening to mull over these ideas. Think about your own experiences,
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what you see around you. Do these symptoms, these subtypes, and APD
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resonate at all? It's definitely, definitely food for thought.
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Thanks for watching Geeks, Geezers, and Googolization.
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Be sure to listen to the podcast and follow us on YouTube.