บทถอดความฉบับเต็มของ How Serbia’s Students Unseated Vučić (w/ Damjan Krnjević Mišković)

Western 00:05:04.889 --> 00:05:08.470 governments from really becoming upset. Yes. 00:05:08.470 --> 00:05:10.449 And not just Western governments. I think that 00:05:10.449 --> 00:05:13.050 he was very accommodationist, not just with the 00:05:13.050 --> 00:05:15.050 United States and the European Union and some 00:05:15.050 --> 00:05:17.790 of the main member states of the EU, but also 00:05:17.790 --> 00:05:21.050 Russia and China and Turkey and, you know, so 00:05:21.050 --> 00:05:26.509 on. He was very, very skilled at. Being able 00:05:26.509 --> 00:05:28.569 to do that and to play some of them off against 00:05:28.569 --> 00:05:32.069 each other, to make whatever concessions to allow 00:05:32.069 --> 00:05:35.550 dirty money to come in, to construct entire new 00:05:35.550 --> 00:05:39.709 neighborhoods, to do whatever really was required 00:05:39.709 --> 00:05:44.149 in order for him and his core group of co -conspirators 00:05:44.149 --> 00:05:47.470 to just be able to have free reign domestically 00:05:47.470 --> 00:05:49.050 in the country. And there are a whole bunch of 00:05:49.050 --> 00:05:51.250 reasons for that that we can get into, but that 00:05:51.250 --> 00:05:54.949 was essentially his modus operandi. Now, within 00:05:54.949 --> 00:05:57.170 that context, obviously, corruption was ripe. 00:05:57.569 --> 00:05:59.870 You know, all of the usual things that you would 00:05:59.870 --> 00:06:02.589 imagine as a result of this way of conducting 00:06:02.589 --> 00:06:06.329 domestic affairs. A couple of years ago, one 00:06:06.329 --> 00:06:08.970 of these construction projects, which was the 00:06:08.970 --> 00:06:12.829 construction of a new train station in a city 00:06:12.829 --> 00:06:16.290 to the north of Belgrade called Novi Sad, there 00:06:16.290 --> 00:06:20.230 was this canopy over this. train station that 00:06:20.230 --> 00:06:23.029 Vucic had stated was, you know, the cutting edge 00:06:23.029 --> 00:06:25.750 of European train stations or whatever, the canopy 00:06:25.750 --> 00:06:28.829 collapsed because of shoddy construction and, 00:06:28.870 --> 00:06:31.110 you know, no inspections and all the rest of 00:06:31.110 --> 00:06:35.149 it. And it killed nearly 20 people. No, there 00:06:35.149 --> 00:06:39.189 was no accountability. There was no, no one resigned. 00:06:39.490 --> 00:06:42.230 No one got, you know, there was no trial, nothing, 00:06:42.389 --> 00:06:45.189 right? Just straight up impunity. And the consequence 00:06:45.189 --> 00:06:49.560 of all of this was that there arose this bottom 00:06:49.560 --> 00:06:55.459 -up movement that was led by students, high school 00:06:55.459 --> 00:06:58.060 students, university students, graduate students, 00:06:58.339 --> 00:07:03.199 that slowly coalesced into a real popular movement 00:07:03.199 --> 00:07:06.439 of discontent. They were able to capture the 00:07:06.439 --> 00:07:10.600 opposition political space because they were 00:07:10.600 --> 00:07:13.839 able to portray the various opposition parties 00:07:13.839 --> 00:07:16.319 as being ineffective or not having the right 00:07:16.319 --> 00:07:19.370 kind of leadership or whatever. which was not 00:07:19.370 --> 00:07:22.269 exactly untrue. And at the same time, they were 00:07:22.269 --> 00:07:25.230 able slowly to push back through a really good, 00:07:25.389 --> 00:07:28.670 incredibly well thought out grassroots campaign 00:07:28.670 --> 00:07:31.750 that involved really just traveling to every 00:07:31.750 --> 00:07:34.750 little hamlet in the country. They were able 00:07:34.750 --> 00:07:37.389 to gain ground against the Vucic regime. And 00:07:37.389 --> 00:07:40.790 all of this culminated in Vucic calling an early 00:07:40.790 --> 00:07:42.629 election that he clearly thought he would win. 00:07:42.769 --> 00:07:45.730 He was term limited to two terms as president. 00:07:46.259 --> 00:07:49.860 And so he resigned for tactical reasons so that 00:07:49.860 --> 00:07:53.579 he could lead his party's list for this parliamentary 00:07:53.579 --> 00:07:56.699 election. What the students ended up doing through 00:07:56.699 --> 00:07:59.699 a very interesting and basically unique selection 00:07:59.699 --> 00:08:02.240 process, they came up with a list of candidates, 00:08:02.519 --> 00:08:05.060 none of whom were students, but who had been 00:08:05.060 --> 00:08:07.579 basically approved through a series of direct 00:08:07.579 --> 00:08:09.759 democracy plenaries and various faculties across 00:08:09.759 --> 00:08:13.620 the country. They put forward this, what ended 00:08:13.620 --> 00:08:16.040 up being called the student list. And the student 00:08:16.040 --> 00:08:18.860 list won the election, which was more or less 00:08:18.860 --> 00:08:21.899 free, but certainly not fair in the sense of 00:08:21.899 --> 00:08:24.800 media coverage and all the rest of it. But they 00:08:24.800 --> 00:08:26.839 were able to do two things at the same time. 00:08:26.920 --> 00:08:29.560 They democratically overthrew the Vucic regime, 00:08:29.939 --> 00:08:33.179 but they also swept aside the opposition, including 00:08:33.179 --> 00:08:36.820 some figures who had been instrumental in the 00:08:36.820 --> 00:08:40.500 democratic overthrow of Slobodan Milosevic in 00:08:40.500 --> 00:08:44.690 September, October 2000. So it really was, in 00:08:44.690 --> 00:08:48.549 a way, a clean sweep. And now we're a week out 00:08:48.549 --> 00:08:53.389 since the election happened. And, you know, all 00:08:53.389 --> 00:08:56.149 sorts of procedures need to take place. The election 00:08:56.149 --> 00:08:58.809 results need to be certified and all the rest 00:08:58.809 --> 00:09:01.710 of it. And then a new parliament constituted 00:09:01.710 --> 00:09:03.250 and the government needs to be formed and all 00:09:03.250 --> 00:09:06.669 that. But, you know, in another month or two, 00:09:06.870 --> 00:09:09.529 the student list or the government nominated

00:09:09.529 --> 00:09:13.769 by the student list will be in power. process 00:09:13.769 --> 00:09:17.769 that you just described, I kind of have to ask 00:09:17.769 --> 00:09:20.210 myself a question. And since I don't know the 00:09:20.210 --> 00:09:24.070 answer, I'm going to ask you instead. Well, I 00:09:24.070 --> 00:09:27.409 might know the answer. Which is the following. 00:09:27.769 --> 00:09:30.789 You know, what you've described, it kind of makes 00:09:30.789 --> 00:09:34.370 me ask myself the student list in assembling 00:09:34.370 --> 00:09:37.970 what must have been a pretty broad coalition, 00:09:38.210 --> 00:09:42.759 taking certainly voters away from the opposition 00:09:42.759 --> 00:09:45.360 because they, you know, they beat the opposition, 00:09:45.659 --> 00:09:50.600 but also taking voters away from people who kind 00:09:50.600 --> 00:09:54.080 of one assumes at least historically had supported 00:09:54.080 --> 00:09:58.399 the regime, you know, but had become very frustrated 00:09:58.399 --> 00:10:01.980 with that perhaps over time. Is that the kind 00:10:01.980 --> 00:10:04.700 of group that's going to have like a unifying 00:10:04.700 --> 00:10:09.779 philosophy of governance and sort of a shared? 00:10:11.039 --> 00:10:14.320 domestic agenda, a shared foreign policy agenda, 00:10:14.600 --> 00:10:20.460 or is it at risk of kind of falling apart? Because 00:10:20.460 --> 00:10:26.379 it was an anti -movement, not a pro -movement, 00:10:26.379 --> 00:10:29.340 if you know what I mean. The atmosphere was really 00:10:29.340 --> 00:10:32.539 referendum -like, right? I'm not the first to 00:10:32.539 --> 00:10:35.779 say this. The students, one of the tricks that 00:10:35.779 --> 00:10:37.559 the students, and I don't mean this in a negative 00:10:37.559 --> 00:10:39.620 way, one of the tricks that the students were 00:10:39.620 --> 00:10:43.080 able to do, or to pull off was to make it a binary 00:10:43.080 --> 00:10:47.659 choice so that they were relatively soft on policy, 00:10:47.860 --> 00:10:51.600 except sort of by bringing out general principles, 00:10:51.899 --> 00:10:55.240 most of which involved, you know, returning the 00:10:55.240 --> 00:10:57.879 country to normalcy, right? The level of corruption 00:10:57.879 --> 00:11:02.100 is astounding. The level of graft and the strength 00:11:02.100 --> 00:11:05.159 of organized criminal networks, the, you know, 00:11:05.179 --> 00:11:07.519 you have betting houses and casinos all over 00:11:07.519 --> 00:11:10.929 the place. You've got all sorts of Just a terrible 00:11:10.929 --> 00:11:13.669 state of affairs domestically, notwithstanding 00:11:13.669 --> 00:11:15.509 the fact that the economy has done relatively 00:11:15.509 --> 00:11:18.549 well. But socially, it's a mess. It's a real 00:11:18.549 --> 00:11:21.529 mess. The level of division, you know, the tension 00:11:21.529 --> 00:11:24.149 that you felt on the streets, certainly in the 00:11:24.149 --> 00:11:28.129 past few years, total impunity, and so on. It 00:11:28.129 --> 00:11:31.389 was the basic tenets of the program are something 00:11:31.389 --> 00:11:34.830 like this, real, serious, comprehensive lustration. 00:11:35.289 --> 00:11:37.169 Right. Even more than what the Czech Republic 00:11:37.169 --> 00:11:41.250 did in the early 90s. Lustration being just like 00:11:41.250 --> 00:11:45.830 a clean sweep of officials affiliated with the 00:11:45.830 --> 00:11:49.649 past government. Yes. And so, you know, they 00:11:49.649 --> 00:11:51.509 haven't gotten into the details how many years 00:11:51.509 --> 00:11:53.710 this and that, but basically some version of 00:11:53.710 --> 00:11:56.350 a, aside from people being removed from the positions 00:11:56.350 --> 00:11:58.929 that they were put in, you know, through irregular 00:11:58.929 --> 00:12:02.450 means on various, you know, party lists, quotas, 00:12:02.450 --> 00:12:06.090 whatever else. But also, I think, I would hope 00:12:06.090 --> 00:12:09.990 that this would also result in looking forward 00:12:09.990 --> 00:12:13.649 in a ban on any kind of participation in public 00:12:13.649 --> 00:12:17.029 life. This, again, is something that the Czechs 00:12:17.029 --> 00:12:19.610 did right after the fall of the Berlin Wall. 00:12:19.929 --> 00:12:22.649 It's something that was done in other crucial 00:12:22.649 --> 00:12:25.389 political circumstances. This is something that 00:12:25.389 --> 00:12:27.029 Serbia needs. This is something that we didn't 00:12:27.029 --> 00:12:30.110 do in the year 2000 because of the coalition. 00:12:30.779 --> 00:12:32.700 that came together to overthrow Miloshevich. 00:12:32.740 --> 00:12:35.120 There were some in that coalition who were against 00:12:35.120 --> 00:12:37.740 this sort of thing. That was obviously a mistake. 00:12:38.000 --> 00:12:40.000 I think that the students understand that that 00:12:40.000 --> 00:12:43.399 mistake cannot be repeated. When I say the students, 00:12:43.440 --> 00:12:45.639 I mean the student list. But also, you know, 00:12:45.700 --> 00:12:48.059 rule of law, right? One of the chief characteristics 00:12:48.059 --> 00:12:50.720 of the Vucic regime was that you had, at the 00:12:50.720 --> 00:12:52.980 very best, a selective application of the rule 00:12:52.980 --> 00:12:56.559 of law. You had a downgrading of the power of 00:12:56.559 --> 00:12:59.840 institutions, of the normal functioning of... 00:13:00.019 --> 00:13:02.460 the institutions of government, again, because 00:13:02.460 --> 00:13:04.940 of corruption and all the rest of it. And so 00:13:04.940 --> 00:13:07.480 you have, you know, this basic sort of, you know, 00:13:07.480 --> 00:13:10.039 set of not just principles, but then applying 00:13:10.039 --> 00:13:13.820 them to the Serbian domestic context. That is, 00:13:13.820 --> 00:13:16.779 there's, I think, total unity in the context 00:13:16.779 --> 00:13:19.500 of the student list, that is to say

the MPs, 00:13:19.539 --> 00:13:22.399 but also the students who stand behind them and 00:13:22.399 --> 00:13:24.879 the voters, that this is something that is necessary 00:13:24.879 --> 00:13:27.980 to do and that that should be the top priority 00:13:27.980 --> 00:13:30.580 of the new government. How long that takes, how 00:13:30.580 --> 00:13:32.980 it will happen is, of course, yet to be determined. 00:13:33.179 --> 00:13:35.379 And I don't think it's a strike against them 00:13:35.379 --> 00:13:37.340 that they haven't, you know, worked out the details 00:13:37.340 --> 00:13:40.139 of how to do this. Because part of the issue 00:13:40.139 --> 00:13:43.059 is that still we don't have anything resembling 00:13:43.059 --> 00:13:46.200 an accurate audit of how bad it really is because 00:13:46.200 --> 00:13:48.799 of the way that the country was run for 14 years. 00:13:49.000 --> 00:13:51.159 On the other hand, you can't conduct an audit 00:13:51.159 --> 00:13:53.779 for a year because you're still going to have 00:13:53.779 --> 00:13:57.480 all of these associates of the Vucic regime who 00:13:57.480 --> 00:14:00.240 need to be. removed from from the institutions 00:14:00.240 --> 00:14:04.019 if serbia is going to have any kind of chance 00:14:04.019 --> 00:14:07.159 at really standing up on its own two feet again 00:14:07.159 --> 00:14:10.759 just kind of shifting gears here into sort of 00:14:10.759 --> 00:14:15.179 a second set of of questions serbia obviously 00:14:15.179 --> 00:14:19.779 is not a european union member but certainly 00:14:19.779 --> 00:14:23.580 you know a part of kind of geographical europe 00:14:23.580 --> 00:14:28.250 and cultural europe and you know economically 00:14:28.250 --> 00:14:31.509 very integrated and all kinds of other things. 00:14:31.629 --> 00:14:33.750 You know, there are a number of people who have 00:14:33.750 --> 00:14:38.389 looked at this election and tried to sort of 00:14:38.389 --> 00:14:42.259 draw Europe wide. lessons from it, because we 00:14:42.259 --> 00:14:45.200 have sort of these two trends and I'm going to 00:14:45.200 --> 00:14:49.220 like grossly oversimplify, you know, but on the 00:14:49.220 --> 00:14:51.820 one hand, you know, we have there was a really 00:14:51.820 --> 00:14:54.580 significant election in Hungary several months 00:14:54.580 --> 00:14:59.429 ago and Viktor Orban, who. From what you're describing, 00:14:59.730 --> 00:15:02.470 you know, sounds like he was not so different 00:15:02.470 --> 00:15:05.769 from Mr. Vujicic in certain respects. You know, 00:15:05.789 --> 00:15:08.830 that was a government that was extremely corrupt 00:15:08.830 --> 00:15:13.049 and that kind of lost an election in no small 00:15:13.049 --> 00:15:17.909 part on that basis. And there's sort of a turn 00:15:17.909 --> 00:15:22.190 toward kind of a more... Democratic, with a small 00:15:22.190 --> 00:15:26.470 d, Hungarian political system. Recognizing, by 00:15:26.470 --> 00:15:30.330 the way,

that the new president, Peter Magyar, 00:15:30.629 --> 00:15:39.909 is very much also right of center in the way 00:15:39.909 --> 00:15:43.389 that Orban was. So it's not a sort of a total 00:15:43.389 --> 00:15:46.370 overturning. And then on the other hand, you 00:15:46.370 --> 00:15:50.679 know, we're having kind of this march of regional 00:15:50.679 --> 00:15:55.159 elections, you know, across Germany, where we're 00:15:55.159 --> 00:16:00.519 seeing sort of more and more the AFD, you know, 00:16:00.580 --> 00:16:03.679 the Alternative für Deutschland, this sort of 00:16:03.679 --> 00:16:07.639 very much to the right party that's just sort 00:16:07.639 --> 00:16:12.639 of generating anxiety all across Europe that's 00:16:12.639 --> 00:16:15.940 linked to kind of Germany's political history. 00:16:16.440 --> 00:16:20.659 Where does the Serbian election fit into that 00:16:20.659 --> 00:16:23.899 framework, if at all? I don't think it fits at 00:16:23.899 --> 00:16:26.500 all. Look, the student list, both the students 00:16:26.500 --> 00:16:29.559 as a group, again, to simplify, and the people 00:16:29.559 --> 00:16:34.080 on the list who got elected as MPs, some are 00:16:34.080 --> 00:16:35.899 on the left, some are in the center, some are 00:16:35.899 --> 00:16:38.860 on the right, some are in between. But I don't 00:16:38.860 --> 00:16:42.139 think that this was an ideological election in 00:16:42.139 --> 00:16:44.940 the sense of left -right. I think this was a... 00:16:45.049 --> 00:16:46.690 Maybe the best way to put it is that it was an 00:16:46.690 --> 00:16:50.210 ideological election between justice and tyranny. 00:16:50.509 --> 00:16:53.149 And I mean this really seriously. There is a 00:16:53.149 --> 00:16:56.889 very, very small appetite amongst the circles 00:16:56.889 --> 00:17:01.970 of those who are now about to take power to fight 00:17:01.970 --> 00:17:03.990 anything that resembles a culture war. We have 00:17:03.990 --> 00:17:06.890 a lot more fundamental and basic things to do 00:17:06.890 --> 00:17:10.029 than to worry about left -right divisions on 00:17:10.029 --> 00:17:12.460 various issues. We're just not there yet. This 00:17:12.460 --> 00:17:15.240 is not something that is on the agenda in any 00:17:15.240 --> 00:17:18.500 serious way. I'm not saying that this won't obviously 00:17:18.500 --> 00:17:21.039 come up because, you know, in politics, it's 00:17:21.039 --> 00:17:23.539 impossible to avoid this, but it will and should 00:17:23.539 --> 00:17:27.119 come later in the sense of getting to the top 00:17:27.119 --> 00:17:32.380 of the agenda. So it's a special case, I guess, 00:17:32.460 --> 00:17:36.720 is what you're saying. It's not part of a sort 00:17:36.720 --> 00:17:41.059 of a continental political narrative. Well, it's, 00:17:41.059 --> 00:17:44.170 you know, You'll know this, and some of the people 00:17:44.170 --> 00:17:45.630 who are listening to this will know that I had 00:17:45.630 --> 00:17:47.869 something to do with Serbia's policy towards 00:17:47.869 --> 00:17:50.869 to counter Kosovo's unilateral declaration of 00:17:50.869 --> 00:17:53.309 independence. And the proponents of this used 00:17:53.309 --> 00:17:57.589 this wonderful term, sui generis. a unique case. 00:17:57.769 --> 00:18:01.509 So let me say that the circumstances that led 00:18:01.509 --> 00:18:04.049 to the overthrow, the democratic overthrow of 00:18:04.049 --> 00:18:06.990 the Vucic tyranny were sui generis. I think that 00:18:06.990 --> 00:18:09.289 there are some, including Magyar himself, who 00:18:09.289 --> 00:18:12.509 sort of tried to take some credit for this. You 00:18:12.509 --> 00:18:14.890 know, I set the standard and now the Serbs are 00:18:14.890 --> 00:18:17.390 falling. No, that's simply not the case. One 00:18:17.390 --> 00:18:19.970 of the fundamental differences is the fact that 00:18:19.970 --> 00:18:23.789 there was no leader, no individual leading the 00:18:23.789 --> 00:18:26.710 push against the Vucic regime. And that was done 00:18:26.710 --> 00:18:29.950 on purpose in part to prevent co -optation or 00:18:29.950 --> 00:18:32.809 blackmail or whatever you'd like by Vucic and 00:18:32.809 --> 00:18:34.609 the regime and the services and all the rest 00:18:34.609 --> 00:18:38.670 of it. And so that is something that you don't 00:18:38.670 --> 00:18:41.490 see anywhere else in Europe. That's actually 00:18:41.490 --> 00:18:45.130 a very interesting piece of it. Absolutely. Maybe 00:18:45.130 --> 00:18:52.140 we can move on now to kind of a third area. Which 00:18:52.140 --> 00:18:55.039 is, you know, what do you think this means for 00:18:55.039 --> 00:18:59.799 Serbia's foreign policy, for its interaction, 00:19:00.000 --> 00:19:02.500 you know, first and foremost with the European 00:19:02.500 --> 00:19:06.980 Union and its neighbors in Europe, but also with, 00:19:07.019 --> 00:19:10.500 you know, other key geopolitical actors, you 00:19:10.500 --> 00:19:13.359 know, the United States, Russia. There's obviously 00:19:13.359 --> 00:19:17.339 a long historical, cultural relationship with 00:19:17.339 --> 00:19:22.039 Russia and China. Yeah. OK, let's. You're the 00:19:22.039 --> 00:19:23.880 boss here. Tell me where you want me to begin. 00:19:24.619 --> 00:19:26.940 Well, let's start with Europe. Let's start with 00:19:26.940 --> 00:19:28.839 Europe because I think that's most immediate. 00:19:29.200 --> 00:19:32.140 So the student list put out a relatively short, 00:19:32.220 --> 00:19:35.720 succinct program of its vision of how to engage 00:19:35.720 --> 00:19:39.099 with neighboring countries and then sort of major 00:19:39.099 --> 00:19:42.460 powers. The first sentence in the public version 00:19:42.460 --> 00:19:44.539 of this program reads as follows with regards 00:19:44.539 --> 00:19:47.500 to the European Union. The European Union is 00:19:47.500 --> 00:19:49.339 the Republic of Serbia's most important economic

00:19:49.339 --> 00:19:52.619 partner. accounting for nearly 60 % of its foreign 00:19:52.619 --> 00:19:56.220 trade in 2025, a clear indication of the depth 00:19:56.220 --> 00:19:58.759 and value of this partnership. It then goes on 00:19:58.759 --> 00:20:00.819 to say a whole bunch of other things, but nowhere 00:20:00.819 --> 00:20:06.759 in there does it directly refer to Serbia maintaining 00:20:06.759 --> 00:20:10.920 its sort of central strategic priority of acceding 00:20:10.920 --> 00:20:12.880 to the European Union, that is to say, of becoming 00:20:12.880 --> 00:20:15.740 a fully -fledged, you know, free and equal member 00:20:15.740 --> 00:20:18.759 of the European Union. The reason for that, or 00:20:18.759 --> 00:20:21.319 at least one of the reasons for that, is because 00:20:21.319 --> 00:20:25.059 it's so obviously far off. And making a declarative 00:20:25.059 --> 00:20:27.200 statement just for the sake of making a declarative 00:20:27.200 --> 00:20:29.839 statement, that's the kind of politics that I 00:20:29.839 --> 00:20:31.640 think that the student list is not interested 00:20:31.640 --> 00:20:35.519 in doing. Obviously, the new government is going 00:20:35.519 --> 00:20:38.839 to need and is going to expect serious engagement 00:20:38.839 --> 00:20:41.960 from the European Union and other states. Obviously, 00:20:41.960 --> 00:20:44.500 Serbia needs a lot of help to get back on its 00:20:44.500 --> 00:20:48.119 feet. Making these kinds of statements just for 00:20:48.119 --> 00:20:50.660 the sake of making them is not, that's not the 00:20:50.660 --> 00:20:54.619 priority. Obviously, having as close of a relationship 00:20:54.619 --> 00:20:57.460 with the European Union, especially in the economic 00:20:57.460 --> 00:21:00.599 dimension, is fundamentally in Serbia's interest 00:21:00.599 --> 00:21:04.359 and nobody would deny that. But that is far from 00:21:04.359 --> 00:21:08.619 expecting or, you know, being realistic about 00:21:08.619 --> 00:21:11.839 the fact that. membership, the question of membership 00:21:11.839 --> 00:21:15.140 in the accession process and the negotiations 00:21:15.140 --> 00:21:17.539 and all that stuff, that's going to take years. 00:21:17.660 --> 00:21:20.079 I don't know how many. Nobody can say with any 00:21:20.079 --> 00:21:22.380 degree of seriousness how many. And that's not 00:21:22.380 --> 00:21:26.000 something that's worth getting into at this stage 00:21:26.000 --> 00:21:29.059 in the context of the student list. So I don't 00:21:29.059 --> 00:21:31.559 think that you can say that the incoming government 00:21:31.559 --> 00:21:34.460 is pro -EU or pro -America or pro -Russia or 00:21:34.460 --> 00:21:37.319 pro -China, pro -whatever you want. No, I think 00:21:37.319 --> 00:21:41.059 that they're pro themselves. You mean in the 00:21:41.059 --> 00:21:44.079 sense of being pro -Serbia? Pro -Serbia. This 00:21:44.079 --> 00:21:46.779 is a political movement that needs to lead a 00:21:46.779 --> 00:21:49.460 process of domestic transformation that is really 00:21:49.460 --> 00:21:52.339 going to be difficult to achieve. And the pursuit 00:21:52.339 --> 00:21:55.740 of any policy, especially any foreign policy, 00:21:55.900 --> 00:21:59.200 that can create fissures in this genuinely well 00:21:59.200 --> 00:22:02.900 put together broad coalition of Democrats, small 00:22:02.900 --> 00:22:05.960 d, is not something that I think the student 00:22:05.960 --> 00:22:09.259 list is interested in pursuing. So I hope that 00:22:09.259 --> 00:22:11.420 the European Union and the United States and 00:22:11.420 --> 00:22:15.339 everyone else will look favorably upon this kind 00:22:15.339 --> 00:22:17.480 of approach that the people who just won the 00:22:17.480 --> 00:22:20.220 election and who are, after all, going to be 00:22:20.220 --> 00:22:23.220 the electoral embodiment of the sovereignty of 00:22:23.220 --> 00:22:25.740 the country will respect it and take it seriously. 00:22:26.099 --> 00:22:28.299 There's also another thing, and this is something 00:22:28.299 --> 00:22:30.599 that is a bitter pill to swallow. The European 00:22:30.599 --> 00:22:33.339 Union supported the Vucic regime from the very 00:22:33.339 --> 00:22:37.759 beginning, and that support went on almost. fully 00:22:37.759 --> 00:22:40.779 until the very end. Supported in what sense? 00:22:41.099 --> 00:22:44.099 Financially, politically? Financially, politically, 00:22:44.400 --> 00:22:47.700 diplomatically. The condemnations were few and 00:22:47.700 --> 00:22:51.359 far between. The language was always very soft. 00:22:52.259 --> 00:22:56.160 It was as if both Brussels and Belgrade thought 00:22:56.160 --> 00:22:58.440 that there was a mutual advantage in both sides 00:22:58.440 --> 00:23:01.480 pretending that they are moving closer to one 00:23:01.480 --> 00:23:06.099 another. From the perspective of Serbia, I can 00:23:06.099 --> 00:23:10.880 kind of... envision why the Serbian leadership 00:23:10.880 --> 00:23:14.539 might want to pretend that for domestic political 00:23:14.539 --> 00:23:18.099 reasons. From the perspective of the Europeans, 00:23:18.440 --> 00:23:21.799 maybe to pivot a little bit, would you attribute 00:23:21.799 --> 00:23:25.900 that to the geopolitical competition between 00:23:25.900 --> 00:23:29.339 the Europeans and Russia? Is that? where that's 00:23:29.339 --> 00:23:31.700 coming from? Or is there some other reason for 00:23:31.700 --> 00:23:35.819 that? And kind of how do you, what attitude do 00:23:35.819 --> 00:23:39.279 you think the student list government, you know, 00:23:39.279 --> 00:23:41.619 would have toward Moscow? I know you said they 00:23:41.619 --> 00:23:44.440 wouldn't be kind of pro -Russian or pro -anything 00:23:44.440 --> 00:23:46.420 else, but how do you think they're going to think 00:23:46.420 --> 00:23:49.640 about Russia? Yeah, look, it predates this whole 00:23:49.640 --> 00:23:52.480 sort of

European Union support for the Vucic 00:23:52.480 --> 00:23:56.910 regime predates the onset of the current. you 00:23:56.910 --> 00:23:59.549 know, stage in the conflict over Ukraine. That 00:23:59.549 --> 00:24:02.730 goes back a lot earlier. And it's a very long 00:24:02.730 --> 00:24:04.809 and complicated question. I will only say this 00:24:04.809 --> 00:24:08.009 for reasons of time, that there was for a very 00:24:08.009 --> 00:24:12.369 long time a distinct lack of enthusiasm for expanding 00:24:12.369 --> 00:24:15.690 the European Union. And clearly the Western Balkans 00:24:15.690 --> 00:24:19.029 were the next phase of that. And the enthusiasm 00:24:19.029 --> 00:24:24.730 there was not exactly high. And so it was a great 00:24:24.730 --> 00:24:27.839 way to not, for the EU not to have to basically 00:24:27.839 --> 00:24:30.700 say, we're going to pause or do anything like 00:24:30.700 --> 00:24:34.599 that. But, you know, if you don't hit back at, 00:24:34.700 --> 00:24:37.779 in the context of accession negotiations against 00:24:37.779 --> 00:24:40.180 the regime that's clearly not moving forward 00:24:40.180 --> 00:24:43.279 to comply with all of the various requirements 00:24:43.279 --> 00:24:46.539 to qualify for the conclusion of the accession 00:24:46.539 --> 00:24:49.000 talks, that makes it easier for you to continue 00:24:49.000 --> 00:24:51.039 to be able to say, yes, yes, we're all in favor 00:24:51.039 --> 00:24:56.240 of it. But in fact, Right. I understand what 00:24:56.240 --> 00:24:59.720 you're saying. With regards to Russia, look, 00:24:59.859 --> 00:25:04.759 Serbia and Russia have, in a way, a singular 00:25:04.759 --> 00:25:07.640 relationship. Without getting into all of the 00:25:07.640 --> 00:25:11.200 details here, it's easier for Serbia than for 00:25:11.200 --> 00:25:14.980 a lot of other countries to look favorably at 00:25:14.980 --> 00:25:18.599 Russia, in part because they're far away and 00:25:18.599 --> 00:25:21.440 in part because they never stayed. If you look 00:25:21.440 --> 00:25:23.799 at the last couple of centuries, it would be 00:25:23.799 --> 00:25:26.460 very difficult of sort of the bilateral relationship. 00:25:26.480 --> 00:25:29.099 It would be very difficult to come up with a 00:25:29.099 --> 00:25:32.440 long list of issues where Serbia and Russia were 00:25:32.440 --> 00:25:34.619 not on the same side in one way or another, right? 00:25:34.700 --> 00:25:37.000 Some of these were causal, some were not. But 00:25:37.000 --> 00:25:40.079 in principle, our bilateral experience with Russia 00:25:40.079 --> 00:25:42.960 is very different from that of other countries. 00:25:43.140 --> 00:25:45.460 That's the historical background. Then there's 00:25:45.460 --> 00:25:48.000 all the cultural stuff. you know, the linguistic 00:25:48.000 --> 00:25:50.740 and religious business. But there's also the 00:25:50.740 --> 00:25:54.039 fact that on the issue that is, in a way, neuralgic 00:25:54.039 --> 00:25:57.279 for everyone who's involved in public life and 00:25:57.279 --> 00:26:00.680 for the citizenry of the vast majority of the 00:26:00.680 --> 00:26:04.779 citizens of Serbia, this is the question of recognizing 00:26:04.779 --> 00:26:07.579 or not Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence. 00:26:08.279 --> 00:26:12.940 The Russians are one of Serbia's strongest. and 00:26:12.940 --> 00:26:15.119 most principled allies on this question. That's 00:26:15.119 --> 00:26:17.599 fundamentally important in the context of the 00:26:17.599 --> 00:26:21.460 Security Council, which is the only way that, 00:26:21.480 --> 00:26:24.680 which is the body that approves new UN member 00:26:24.680 --> 00:26:27.180 states and all the rest of it. There's been continuity. 00:26:27.259 --> 00:26:30.079 When I had something to do with Serbian foreign 00:26:30.079 --> 00:26:33.119 policy, we did what we needed to do in order 00:26:33.119 --> 00:26:35.660 to ensure that the Russians supported us on this. 00:26:36.339 --> 00:26:39.910 The Vucic regime made... certainly more concessions 00:26:39.910 --> 00:26:42.910 than we did, but to maintain that Russian strategic 00:26:42.910 --> 00:26:45.089 posture, which became more complicated to do 00:26:45.089 --> 00:26:47.950 after Ukraine, obviously, because the Russians, 00:26:48.130 --> 00:26:51.509 even in Georgia, right after Kosovo, that this 00:26:51.509 --> 00:26:54.109 question of territorial integrity of UN member 00:26:54.109 --> 00:26:56.849 states became relativized, first with Kosovo 00:26:56.849 --> 00:26:59.910 and then Georgia and Ukraine and so on. It's 00:26:59.910 --> 00:27:01.690 one of these very strange ironies, you know, 00:27:01.730 --> 00:27:04.049 that the only permanent member of the United 00:27:04.049 --> 00:27:07.539 Nations Security Council that recognized recognizes 00:27:07.539 --> 00:27:10.359 the territorial integrity of all UN member states 00:27:10.359 --> 00:27:12.920 is China, right? That's just a fact, right? It's 00:27:12.920 --> 00:27:14.799 not the United States. It's not the United Kingdom, 00:27:14.920 --> 00:27:18.400 France, Russia. You know, this is a complex issue. 00:27:19.059 --> 00:27:20.980 There's an energy component. There are all sorts 00:27:20.980 --> 00:27:23.799 of other things. But again, I think it would 00:27:23.799 --> 00:27:27.619 be nobody serious would ever be willing to say, 00:27:27.720 --> 00:27:30.960 much less take seriously even a provocation that 00:27:30.960 --> 00:27:32.660 would suggest that the new Serbian government 00:27:32.660 --> 00:27:35.279 is going to be... You know, pro -Russia. Right, 00:27:35.619 --> 00:27:38.660 right, right. Sure, sure, sure. Well, maybe one 00:27:38.660 --> 00:27:43.059 minute here as we're kind of winding down on 00:27:43.059 --> 00:27:49.140 how Serbia might fit into the U .S.-China competition. 00:27:49.319 --> 00:27:54.119 Is there anything sort of new or different? Or 00:27:54.119 --> 00:27:57.299 would you expect kind of much as in the case 00:27:57.299 --> 00:28:00.960 of Russia, which you just described in some detail? 00:28:01.559 --> 00:28:06.759 kind of Serbian interests are constant and the 00:28:06.759 --> 00:28:10.099 basic direction in both cases would remain the 00:28:10.099 --> 00:28:12.960 same. Yeah, look, one of the objectively good 00:28:12.960 --> 00:28:15.160 things that the Vucic regime did was that it 00:28:15.160 --> 00:28:18.240 found a way to arrange, to make an arrangement 00:28:18.240 --> 00:28:20.599 with the United States that is called a strategic 00:28:20.599 --> 00:28:23.759 dialogue, right? The first session of this, Serbia's 00:28:23.759 --> 00:28:26.680 outgoing foreign minister and Secretary Rubio 00:28:26.680 --> 00:28:29.500 held the first round of this dialogue in July 00:28:29.500 --> 00:28:32.680 of this year. The emphasis was on practical cooperation, 00:28:33.180 --> 00:28:35.880 telecoms, energy, transport, infrastructure, 00:28:36.440 --> 00:28:41.900 AI, advanced tech, you know, investment, LNG, 00:28:42.079 --> 00:28:45.099 deeper defense cooperation, that kind of stuff. 00:28:45.339 --> 00:28:47.880 Practical cooperation, pragmatic cooperation. 00:28:48.359 --> 00:28:51.960 Evan Feigenbaum of Carnegie has this wonderful 00:28:51.960 --> 00:28:55.019 formulation, strategic transactionalism. You 00:28:55.019 --> 00:28:57.059 know, I think the Trump guys understand that. 00:28:57.180 --> 00:29:00.750 I think that... deepening a bilateral relationship 00:29:00.750 --> 00:29:03.809 on the basis of that kind of thinking is mutually 00:29:03.809 --> 00:29:06.589 beneficial i expect that that is going to be 00:29:06.589 --> 00:29:09.529 one of the main thrusts of the bilateral relationship 00:29:09.529 --> 00:29:13.140 moving forward terrific Well, Damian, thank you 00:29:13.140 --> 00:29:16.519 so much for taking the time to talk to me here 00:29:16.519 --> 00:29:21.299 today and to set out for our three questions, 00:29:21.380 --> 00:29:25.019 listeners, your perspective on the election in 00:29:25.019 --> 00:29:28.160 Serbia and the aftermath of that. I think a lot 00:29:28.160 --> 00:29:31.539 for everyone to think about. And again, this 00:29:31.539 --> 00:29:34.059 is Paul Saunders with the Center for the National 00:29:34.059 --> 00:29:38.529 Interest. joined by Damian Kurnovich -Miskovich, 00:29:38.609 --> 00:29:43.809 a professor of practice at ADA University in 00:29:43.809 --> 00:29:47.130 Baku, Azerbaijan. Thank you, Damian. Thank you 00:29:47.130 --> 00:29:51.109 very much, Paul. Happy to have done this. Thank 00:29:51.109 --> 00:29:51.269 you.