บทถอดความฉบับเต็มของ Robinhood's Prediction Markets, The Gaming Super Cycle, and FOMC Analysis [Threadguy Stream Recap]

00:03:35.199 --> 00:03:37.280 And I read this, I was like, what should I read? 00:03:37.439 --> 00:03:41.199 I saw some article of his and I'm like, what should I read? 00:03:41.439 --> 00:03:45.680 And so I was recommended this book, Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas. 00:03:45.759 --> 00:03:46.639 Has anyone ever read it? 00:03:46.719 --> 00:03:47.599 Apparently it's a movie, too. 00:03:47.680 --> 00:03:48.639 It's Eli's PFP. 00:03:48.719 --> 00:03:50.240 I've been wondering what his PFP was forever. 00:03:50.479 --> 00:03:53.199 Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas. 00:03:53.520 --> 00:04:00.400 And I am telling you that I have maybe never read a better book in my entire life. 00:04:00.560 --> 00:04:04.800 I've probably read 20 books this year, and I have not laughed out loud a one time. 00:04:05.280 --> 00:04:05.599 Okay. 00:04:06.240 --> 00:04:13.680 And so I don't know if it's where it ranks in the funniest book ever, but all I do know is I've read a lot of books and I've never laughed. 00:04:13.919 --> 00:04:20.720 And I was sitting outside reading this book at the park, like audibly laughing, like consistently. 00:04:20.959 --> 00:04:21.279 Okay. 00:04:21.600 --> 00:04:24.160 It is just fucking incredible. 00:04:24.800 --> 00:04:29.040 It's a little much, and he's like a little overboard on the drug thing. 00:04:29.120 --> 00:04:34.079 Like it's like a little much on the drugs, but it is just incredible. 00:04:34.240 --> 00:04:37.040 And the thing about it, it reminds me of Crypto Twitter, okay? 00:04:37.279 --> 00:05:01.439 Because he he does this whole bit where he's like, you know, he comes to Vegas to write a story about this motocross event of sorts, and he comes into Vegas and he has all these sort of preconceived notions about how terrible Vegas is, how much of a crash out the place is, how much the people suck, they'll chew you up in Vegas, they'll you know, they'll eat you alive, kick you to the curb, spit on you, leave you there. 00:05:01.519 --> 00:05:02.720 You gotta be careful in Vegas. 00:05:02.800 --> 00:05:11.839 He has this whole this whole bit about Vegas people, and you go through this entire book in his like world, and then at the end, you sort of have this like somber realization. 00:05:11.920 --> 00:05:16.480 There's this scene where it's like, you know, he paid for the event with a with a bad check. 00:05:16.639 --> 00:05:18.959 The Cadillac he rented is destroyed. 00:05:19.120 --> 00:05:22.480 He hasn't slept in six days, he destroyed his hotel room. 00:05:22.560 --> 00:05:26.959 They like kidnapped this girl and like kicked her out, and he's in this diner. 00:05:27.040 --> 00:05:28.639 He's he can't even like be in Maine Vegas. 00:05:28.720 --> 00:05:38.560 He's in this diner in like North Vegas in the middle of fucking nowhere with this like sicko attorney who's holding a knife at the waitress in this diner at her throat. 00:05:38.720 --> 00:05:39.839 He hasn't slept in days. 00:05:39.920 --> 00:05:41.040 He's disgusting.

00:05:41.279 --> 00:05:48.800 He like ruined Vegas and he like looks at himself and he's like, damn, I'm actually just it's it's me. 00:05:48.959 --> 00:05:50.720 I'm the Vegas guy in question. 00:05:50.879 --> 00:05:51.839 It was me the whole time. 00:05:51.920 --> 00:05:53.120 Like, it's actually just me. 00:05:53.360 --> 00:05:55.439 Everybody here is just like living their normal lives. 00:05:55.600 --> 00:06:11.120 Waiters are waiters, the house staff are the house staff, everyone's like completely normal and doing mundane day-to-day lives, and here he is just like just destroying this place that that he came into with these these notions about. 00:06:11.279 --> 00:06:12.160 I'm the problem. 00:06:12.319 --> 00:06:18.240 And it reminds me of crypto twitter a lot, where everybody is like, this place is destructive. 00:06:18.399 --> 00:06:29.519 By the way, Heineken, if you come back in this chat with another fucking 24 hours of whining and bitching and moaning about crypto, you are the pro dude with the fucking moaning, bro. 00:06:30.000 --> 00:06:32.319 Boo fucking who crypto was down. 00:06:32.560 --> 00:06:34.160 Boo fucking who, brother. 00:06:34.319 --> 00:06:36.079 What are we gonna fucking cry about it every day? 00:06:36.240 --> 00:06:38.000 Boo who womp womp womp. 00:06:38.079 --> 00:06:42.480 Pull your fucking goddamn pants up and listen to what I'm saying because I'm talking about you. 00:06:42.560 --> 00:06:44.000 I'm actually talking about you. 00:06:44.240 --> 00:06:46.639 Okay, and all these people in CT do this. 00:06:46.720 --> 00:06:48.720 Everyone on FinTwit and Crypto Twitter does this. 00:06:48.879 --> 00:07:08.399 They come here and they complain about how crypto is dead and how the place sucks and how everyone shows garbage and no one provides market commentary and nobody posts trade ideas, and no one has any idea, no one, no one does anything productive, and they take bad sponsors and they show bullshit, and they wake up in the morning and they participate in said activities. 00:07:08.560 --> 00:07:11.920 You are fear and loathing in Vegas, you are the problem, okay? 00:07:12.000 --> 00:07:15.279 If you feel like this place has provides no value, provide some fucking value. 00:07:15.439 --> 00:07:17.120 At the end of the day, it's just a bunch of people. 00:07:17.199 --> 00:07:18.879 Crypto Twitter is not a real thing, okay? 00:07:18.959 --> 00:07:22.560 It's a bunch of people that have some shared interests amongst a market, and that's all it is. 00:07:22.720 --> 00:07:26.319 And so if your contribution to the shared interest sucks, you're part of the problem. 00:07:26.480 --> 00:07:27.199 Go read the book. 00:07:27.360 --> 00:07:28.160 Sit down, read the book. 00:07:28.240 --> 00:07:29.279 I'll take you three hours. 00:07:29.439 --> 00:07:30.560 That's all that's all it is. 00:07:30.720 --> 00:07:32.240 It sucks because you suck. 00:07:39.279 --> 00:07:46.959 Come on, come on. 00:07:47.600 --> 00:07:48.560 That was good. 00:07:49.040 --> 00:07:54.000 That was really, really, really good. 00:07:54.720 --> 00:07:57.360 Anyways, that's my rant to start off the morning. 00:07:57.519 --> 00:07:58.959 Go read some fucking books, man. 00:07:59.040 --> 00:08:01.120 There's there's parallels everywhere for the eyes to see. 00:08:01.360 --> 00:08:07.439 I don't know if this is true, but the story is that instinct just raised around$30 billion. 00:08:07.920 --> 00:08:11.360 Can anyone here confirm to me if that is true? 00:08:11.519 --> 00:08:16.079 Because if it is, it is in unfathomable if that's true. 00:08:16.240 --> 00:08:16.800 Truly. 00:08:17.040 --> 00:08:25.759 I was I know a guy who was talking about investing in an instinct round at$10 billion, like two months. 00:08:26.079 --> 00:08:27.120 I mean, how long, Malcolm? 00:08:27.199 --> 00:08:27.920 Two months ago. 00:08:28.160 --> 00:08:31.439 They're like, I'm gonna invest in the$10 billion round two months ago. 00:08:31.680 --> 00:08:34.159 And I looked at him and I said, You're fucking out of your mind. 00:08:34.320 --> 00:08:35.039 $10 billion. 00:08:35.360 --> 00:08:36.879 Are you out of your mind? 00:08:37.360 --> 00:08:41.600 This is right after Muse launched, and they're like, I'm I like the 10 B round on instinct. 00:08:41.679 --> 00:08:43.120 I said, Are you nuts? 00:08:43.679 --> 00:08:44.799 What are you talking about? 00:08:44.960 --> 00:08:45.679 $10 billion? 00:08:46.080 --> 00:08:46.639 No way. 00:08:46.879 --> 00:08:47.360 Pass. 00:08:47.679 --> 00:08:50.159 It was like a billion a couple months ago. 00:08:50.320 --> 00:08:54.080 Well, I don't know if they they invested or not, but it's at 30 already. 00:08:54.159 --> 00:08:59.120 The thing about it that's crazy is I heard about instinct for the first time three, four months ago. 00:08:59.279 --> 00:08:59.600 Max. 00:08:59.759 --> 00:09:01.440 Three, four months ago, max. 00:09:02.159 --> 00:09:05.600 And look, I use it every day. 00:09:06.399 --> 00:09:07.840 I use it every day. 00:09:08.960 --> 00:09:15.039 I mainly just use it to ask it when I'm gonna get my tax return because I want to buy a watch. 00:09:15.200 --> 00:09:19.840 And so I keep asking it tax return, tax return, where is it, where is it, where is it, where is it, where is it? 00:09:20.080 --> 00:09:21.679 But I do use it every day. 00:09:22.080 --> 00:09:28.639 And the thing about it that's crazy is to my knowledge, the reason I run at 30 billion dollars, I I don't believe I've paid for it at any at any moment. 00:09:28.799 --> 00:09:30.000 Maybe I'm wrong and I am paying for it. 00:09:30.159 --> 00:09:33.200 That's my credit card, but I don't think I've paid is a it's I think it's free. 00:09:33.360 --> 00:09:34.159 I think it's free. 00:09:34.240 --> 00:09:39.200 I have I paid for instinct, I don't think I paid for instinct, I think it's free, and the reason I'm at 30 billion dollars. 00:09:39.360 --> 00:09:41.919 So man, it's look, it's a useful product. 00:09:42.080 -->

00:09:48.240 Here's the thing I'll say the the only difference, because everyone everyone is saying, you know, oh reminds me of of crypto 21. 00:09:48.399 --> 00:09:55.120 It does, but the only difference is the stuff that was raising at 30 billion dollars in 2021 was like avalanche. 00:09:55.279 --> 00:09:56.960 The instinct product is actually useful. 00:09:57.120 --> 00:09:58.960 No sh I'm not even gonna say no shade anymore. 00:09:59.039 --> 00:10:00.480 I've I've just dragged them so many times. 00:10:00.720 --> 00:10:02.159 The instinct product is useful. 00:10:02.320 --> 00:10:07.279 The muse, the harness, these, these eight, they are useful and they work and they're good. 00:10:07.440 --> 00:10:09.600 And I see I I get it, man. 00:10:09.759 --> 00:10:11.919 I I'll tell you what, I get it. 00:10:12.080 --> 00:10:16.559 I I I I I completely get it, but yeah, that was a crazy stray easy. 00:10:16.639 --> 00:10:19.279 There was no reason why I had to give an avalanche stray right there. 00:10:19.440 --> 00:10:21.519 There was absolutely no reason I had to do that. 00:10:21.600 --> 00:10:22.799 I haven't even done it in months. 00:10:22.960 --> 00:10:24.720 I just fucking relapsed on stream. 00:10:24.799 --> 00:10:27.279 It's the no signs I'm relapsing on stream. 00:10:27.360 --> 00:10:29.279 But they were I I haven't done it in months. 00:10:29.440 --> 00:10:32.879 It was mostly garbage that was raising ridiculous rounds in 2021. 00:10:33.039 --> 00:10:39.679 I understand why if you're a VC, you would be panicking to shove an instinct type of thing at any price. 00:10:40.000 --> 00:10:44.159 Because regardless of what happens to the financials of some of these companies, it's it's accelerating. 00:10:44.320 --> 00:10:46.000 And it's accelerating in a crazy way. 00:10:46.159 --> 00:10:52.559 If you've been watching our stream for a long time, you will remember when Google first launched their genie like world model. 00:10:52.720 --> 00:11:01.759 Remember, I was like generating myself in the Pokemon Center with Nurse Joy's fine ass and like a Charizard and walking around and it was like kind of janky, but it worked. 00:11:01.840 --> 00:11:02.639 Do you remember this? 00:11:02.879 --> 00:11:07.919 Well, they just launched Genie 4, and it is fucking nuts. 00:11:08.799 --> 00:11:10.080 It is nuts. 00:11:10.399 --> 00:11:12.320 Look at this model that just launched. 00:11:12.399 --> 00:11:13.200 Please watch this. 00:11:13.279 --> 00:11:16.799 If you think I'm crazy, I made 7k copy trades on bought yesterday. 00:11:16.879 --> 00:11:17.279 Thanks, buddy. 00:11:17.360 --> 00:11:18.559 Dude, I'm down like 30 bands. 00:11:18.639 --> 00:11:21.279 I'm down like$200,000 in a month. 00:11:21.440 --> 00:11:22.480 Shut the fuck up. 00:11:22.720 --> 00:11:26.879 If you don't believe in the gaming thesis, I beg you to sit down and watch this. 00:11:26.960 --> 00:11:27.759 Please watch this. 00:11:28.080 --> 00:11:31.759 Genie 4 is our most realistic and interactive world model yet. 00:11:31.919 --> 00:11:34.720 Build environments and simulate worlds on command. 00:11:34.879 --> 00:11:38.480 Keep prompting, and Genie 4 will work out what happens next. 00:11:38.639 --> 00:11:41.279 Then explore and reshape them in real time. 00:11:41.519 --> 00:11:42.559 Seriously, watch this. 00:11:42.720 --> 00:11:43.519 Ah, fine, why not? 00:11:43.840 --> 00:11:47.039 Transform a picture into a dynamic environment that's ready to explore. 00:11:47.200 --> 00:11:47.840 About that, right? 00:11:48.159 --> 00:11:49.759 Complete with ambient sound. 00:11:49.919 --> 00:11:53.279 Create a team, move the camera, direct every detail. 00:11:53.440 --> 00:11:54.240 Look at this ship. 00:11:54.399 --> 00:11:55.759 And watch the world change. 00:11:56.000 --> 00:11:56.559 Live. 00:11:56.879 --> 00:11:58.559 Do you really think we're gonna make it? 00:11:58.799 --> 00:12:01.600 Well or describe an interactive experience. 00:12:01.759 --> 00:12:06.559 A few seconds later, you're inside it with full control over your character. 00:12:06.879 --> 00:12:10.879 Hey! Let's attack the castle! No! It's a trap! 00:12:11.039 --> 00:12:14.080 Good luck, my friends! Is this not insane? 00:12:14.240 --> 00:12:18.879 I mean, guys, that's like one of the most unbelievable demos I've ever seen. 00:12:18.960 --> 00:12:20.399 And it's like some casual shit. 00:12:20.480 --> 00:12:24.799 Like no one's even it was like the 30th thing on my stream dock. 00:12:24.879 --> 00:12:32.639 It was some complete casual shit that I've didn't even I wasn't even gonna it wasn't even gonna make it onto my screen today. 00:12:32.879 --> 00:12:35.039 Which is that's how crazy it is. 00:12:35.279 --> 00:12:36.080 Truly. 00:12:36.559 --> 00:12:40.080 Um, so there the stuff is happening at the same time. 00:12:40.240 --> 00:12:46.879 There is some advancements in our AI gaming sort of thing, which is pretty crazy. 00:12:47.120 --> 00:13:13.600 Um, they basically figured out how to put full-fledged video games into Roblox and they put CSGO full game into Roblox, supported working, active game into Roblox, and then they put Roblox into the browser for free for anybody to play Roblox on your browser for free, no download for anyone to play in your browser for free with CSGO on it. 00:13:13.759 --> 00:13:17.039 It's like line, it's like yeah, it's happening. 00:13:17.200 --> 00:13:20.799 Um, there was some controversy in the sports world the other day. 00:13:20.879 --> 00:13:21.840 I don't know if you saw this. 00:13:22.000 --> 00:13:28.159 Killian Mbappe, star of the soccer world, made this comment. 00:13:28.639 --> 00:13:42.000 They asked him about his favorite like meme or social media post online, and he said that it was a video of him as the face of Mao, quote, a Chinese dictator. 00:13:42.320 --> 00:13:43.919 This is the video, this is the video. 00:13:49.840 --> 00:13:50.639 Can I play this? 00:13:50.720 --> 00:13:51.279 I can, right? 00:13:51.360 -->

00:13:58.639 Surely, anyways, he said this is his favorite meme, and there was a like unbelievable freak out from this. 00:13:58.960 --> 00:13:59.279 Okay. 00:13:59.679 --> 00:14:05.600 They said that uh one he got dropped from basically every Asian brand, instantly dropped. 00:14:05.840 --> 00:14:18.159 The second thing that happened is that um they're saying La Liga is going to lose multiple nine figures from this because China doesn't want to show their games anymore, which is crazy. 00:14:18.320 --> 00:14:22.960 China doesn't want to show their games anymore, and so they've stopped playing La Liga games. 00:14:23.039 --> 00:14:24.240 He plays he plays for Real, I think. 00:14:24.320 --> 00:14:26.240 Yeah, it plays for Real with Vinicius. 00:14:26.720 --> 00:14:33.120 China stopped playing La Liga games on their television, which I don't know how long they're gonna do it for. 00:14:33.360 --> 00:14:35.679 Sounds like a dictatorship, okay. 00:14:36.000 --> 00:14:46.879 And um, La Liga president came out and he was like, We'll fix a date to travel to China to hold a meeting and personally apologize to the people of China for his comments regarding the dictator meme. 00:14:47.039 --> 00:14:53.679 The Chinese are going on to boycott anything related to Kylian Mbappe after what he said, including cutting La Liga and all sponsorship related to the player. 00:14:53.840 --> 00:15:01.200 Kilan Mbappe has apologized, and so is the La Liga president, but it's still not looking good for the league and the players, so they decided to personally travel to China to fix things. 00:15:01.440 --> 00:15:10.799 Okay, and here is one of the brands that dropped him, and it went from 116 a share in a straight line to 99. 00:15:11.120 --> 00:15:13.039 It's like a 15% candle. 00:15:13.200 --> 00:15:14.480 This is this is one of them. 00:15:16.720 --> 00:15:17.759 Um, another one. 00:15:17.840 --> 00:15:20.240 There's four brands that dropped him and got just destroyed. 00:15:20.320 --> 00:15:20.639 Let me see. 00:15:20.799 --> 00:15:22.799 HKEX 2319. 00:15:23.120 --> 00:15:24.320 This one wasn't so bad. 00:15:24.559 --> 00:15:25.519 This wasn't so bad. 00:15:25.600 --> 00:15:27.279 Um, on got hit. 00:15:27.360 --> 00:15:28.159 That's crazy. 00:15:28.320 --> 00:15:29.360 Yeah, not super bad. 00:15:29.600 --> 00:15:30.159 Not super bad. 00:15:30.240 --> 00:15:30.960 The other one is what? 00:15:31.120 --> 00:15:31.840 SSE. 00:15:31.919 --> 00:15:37.759 Let's see, SSE 6600 882. 00:15:40.240 --> 00:15:41.759 No, not super bad at all either. 00:15:42.000 --> 00:15:44.080 But the first the first company got crushed. 00:15:44.320 --> 00:15:47.919 Red line down 10% immediately after the announcement. 00:15:48.559 --> 00:15:56.080 And look, I'm not trying to get myself into any controversy in the eastern hemisphere of the world, but I don't know. 00:15:56.320 --> 00:15:58.000 It didn't feel like it was that crazy. 00:15:58.159 --> 00:16:00.720 Truly, it didn't feel like it was

that nuts what he said. 00:16:00.879 --> 00:16:03.200 I don't know, it didn't feel like it was that nuts. 00:16:03.840 --> 00:16:13.679 And the thing that's crazy, this is what's actually crazy about it to me is that okay, we go through this era of peak, peak, peak, peak cancel culture. 00:16:13.840 --> 00:16:18.799 2021, America's woke, da da da da da 2020, 2019, really 2021. 00:16:18.960 --> 00:16:20.960 Then it goes completely the other way. 00:16:21.200 --> 00:16:27.440 Trump part two, Nick Fuentes, and Ross, say whatever the fuck you want to say as loud as you can. 00:16:27.519 --> 00:16:30.639 Dana White, fuck everybody, retard is back. 00:16:30.720 --> 00:16:32.320 We can say whatever we want. 00:16:32.879 --> 00:16:41.919 And then now it feels like we've landed somewhere in the middle where you are either like you work in like finance or edgy tech. 00:16:42.240 --> 00:16:48.559 You were allowed to say whatever you want, however you want, to whoever you want, and nobody can do fucking shit. 00:16:48.720 --> 00:16:59.840 And this part of the world is completely oblivious to the rest of the world that like hates Gen AI, thinks it's hurting water, and you cannot say anything at all. 00:17:00.080 --> 00:17:02.399 Like Shane Gillis makes some comment. 00:17:02.799 --> 00:17:03.360 You know what I mean? 00:17:03.440 --> 00:17:13.200 Like, you cannot say anything about anything at all, and it's like unbelievable crash out to the point where these two parties almost don't know that each other exists. 00:17:13.599 --> 00:17:19.359 We're very like segregated from it on Twitter where everybody just says whatever the fuck on this app. 00:17:19.599 --> 00:17:20.400 Whatever the fuck. 00:17:20.480 --> 00:17:22.640 Everybody comes in here and they say whatever. 00:17:22.799 --> 00:17:23.920 The tech guys say it. 00:17:24.160 --> 00:17:26.319 Chamoff and them are talking about retard maxing. 00:17:26.400 --> 00:17:27.359 You they say whatever they want. 00:17:27.440 --> 00:17:33.519 And then on the other side, there is this crazy cancel culture like vibe. 00:17:33.680 --> 00:17:37.759 And it's the vast majority of the US, and these people have power, okay? 00:17:37.839 --> 00:17:49.279 They're the anti-data center, they are anti-gen AI, they're the, you know, this party is coming, and they're what they're big, they're fucking big. 00:17:49.519 --> 00:17:55.680 And when you see something like this Mbappe situation, it's like, whoa, it's a little bit eye-opening. 00:17:55.839 --> 00:17:56.160 Okay. 00:17:56.799 --> 00:18:04.480 Third story that is starting to happen underneath the surface, and I think we gotta start covering it, is it feels like layoffs are coming. 00:18:05.279 --> 00:18:05.599 Okay. 00:18:05.759 --> 00:18:07.359 We've seen three posts now about it. 00:18:07.440 --> 00:18:14.000 Number one was Microsoft is offering buyouts to 60,000 workers as part of the company efforts to cut costs amid AI adoption. 00:18:14.160 --> 00:18:19.039 Personal

and select teams in the US, Canada, India, and the UK at a vice president level and below will be eligible. 00:18:19.119 --> 00:18:23.279 This reflects 27% of Microsoft's total workforce. 00:18:23.920 --> 00:18:26.799 They offered buyouts to 60,000 people. 00:18:27.279 --> 00:18:32.079 It's a little bit bizarre because what happens if you don't take it? 00:18:32.160 --> 00:18:33.279 And you know who's relevant again? 00:18:33.440 --> 00:18:34.960 We might have to get back on stream is Mr. 00:18:35.039 --> 00:18:35.920 Andrew Yang. 00:18:36.160 --> 00:18:37.200 It's back in the saddle. 00:18:37.279 --> 00:18:38.640 This is staggering. 00:18:38.880 --> 00:18:46.319 Every employee who receives the offer will have to think if I turn this down, do I get a pink slip on much worse terms next year? 00:18:46.480 --> 00:18:47.839 I mean, what's the game theory? 00:18:47.920 --> 00:18:49.759 You probably gotta take the buyout, right? 00:18:49.920 --> 00:18:50.880 There was two more, I think. 00:18:51.039 --> 00:19:03.519 Skydance was one as well, which is the was it Larry Ellison's son is in charge of this, are doing voluntary buyouts as well, which is maybe less AI expected. 00:19:03.680 --> 00:19:04.720 Was it was it Dropbox? 00:19:04.799 --> 00:19:05.599 What was the other one? 00:19:05.839 --> 00:19:06.640 Dropbox. 00:19:06.799 --> 00:19:11.599 Yes, Dropbox announced they're cutting 9% of the global the global workforce. 00:19:11.839 --> 00:19:15.920 And so it's interesting, it feels like it's starting to happen now. 00:19:16.400 --> 00:19:19.839 And if you think back, yeah, by the way, what is what are they doing at Dropbox? 00:19:19.920 --> 00:19:21.119 That tech is terrible. 00:19:21.599 --> 00:19:27.680 If you think back, the original Citrini article basically outlined this. 00:19:28.000 --> 00:19:28.720 Think about this. 00:19:29.119 --> 00:19:32.400 Euphoria was palpable by October 2026. 00:19:32.559 --> 00:19:34.240 S this article is from when? 00:19:34.319 --> 00:19:35.119 This is pretty old. 00:19:35.359 --> 00:19:36.400 This is from February. 00:19:36.480 --> 00:19:37.359 Watch this, watch this. 00:19:37.519 --> 00:19:39.200 Remember this article, the AI Doom article? 00:19:39.279 --> 00:19:41.839 By October 26th, the SP flirted with 8,000. 00:19:42.240 --> 00:19:44.319 Let's check in on the SP. 00:19:44.480 --> 00:19:52.079 Do SPX is 7722 with an all-time high of 7852. 00:19:52.240 --> 00:19:54.720 I think that's fair to say it's flirting with 8,000. 00:19:54.799 --> 00:19:56.720 The Nasdaq broke above 30k. 00:19:56.880 --> 00:19:57.119 Duh. 00:19:57.359 --> 00:19:59.519 NASDAQ broke above 30k. 00:19:59.599 --> 00:20:04.960 It was 31358.9 at the top. 00:20:05.119 --> 00:20:16.000 The initial waves of layoffs due to human obsol obsolescence began in early 2026, and they did exactly what layoffs are supposed to do. 00:20:16.240 --> 00:20:26.079 Margins expanded, earnings beat, stocks rallied, record setting corporate profits were funneled right

back into AI compute. 00:20:26.319 --> 00:20:30.319 And we saw what I thought was the smoking gun of this early in the year. 00:20:30.480 --> 00:20:32.240 No, this is the OG article, bro. 00:20:32.400 --> 00:20:35.359 This is from February 22nd, 2026. 00:20:35.519 --> 00:20:36.079 He posted this. 00:20:36.160 --> 00:20:42.559 It's the OG intelligence crisis, where it's like AI is so good it's deflationary and it fucks everyone's numbers. 00:20:42.880 --> 00:20:45.039 But he predicted basically exactly this. 00:20:45.279 --> 00:20:48.799 October 26th, SP was 8K, NASDAQ broke above 30k. 00:20:49.039 --> 00:20:49.839 Both of these did. 00:20:50.000 --> 00:20:53.039 And the initial wave of layoffs is like accelerating. 00:20:53.279 --> 00:21:03.279 And so if you remember, we were live on stream when Montclair, you're good, when Jack Dorsey laid off 25% of the workforce, I think 2,500 people at the block, and stock ripped. 00:21:03.359 --> 00:21:05.119 And I said, Oh boy, it's starting. 00:21:05.279 --> 00:21:06.240 It's starting right now. 00:21:06.319 --> 00:21:07.359 And it didn't start. 00:21:07.519 --> 00:21:09.519 And thought maybe it was like a little bit early. 00:21:09.680 --> 00:21:14.240 But then when Microsoft does it, they show up and they're like, Yeah, we're getting rid of 25% of our workforce. 00:21:14.319 --> 00:21:17.920 Except instead of 2,500 people, it's 65, it's 60,000. 00:21:18.079 --> 00:21:19.759 Oh boy, it's a big number. 00:21:19.920 --> 00:21:22.160 And so it's crazy to look at the Citrini article. 00:21:22.240 --> 00:21:24.559 You almost gotta give it, it's probably a decent time to read it again. 00:21:24.720 --> 00:21:28.079 Gotta give it some validity because it feels like it's starting to happen. 00:21:28.240 --> 00:21:30.000 And I just I don't know what to say. 00:21:30.160 --> 00:21:37.279 Like the tools are just good, and a lot of these jobs are just not that a lot of these jobs are just like, I don't know, man. 00:21:37.519 --> 00:21:40.799 A lot of these white, it's like, um, I don't know. 00:21:41.039 --> 00:21:41.599 I don't know. 00:21:41.839 --> 00:21:42.319 I don't know. 00:21:42.400 --> 00:21:44.960 It's a tough spot that that is starting to happen. 00:21:45.279 --> 00:21:45.599 Okay. 00:21:45.839 --> 00:21:59.759 Um, Robin Hood had earnings yesterday, and a lot of people are sort of bearish on Robin Hood at the moment, on the idea that retail trading activities is gonna go down, market slows, and I heard a statistic that was so I was looking. 00:22:00.400 --> 00:22:06.079 To omit listen to the earnings call, he read a stat out loud, and I stopped in my tracks and was like, Wait, what? 00:22:06.319 --> 00:22:07.599 Hold on, what? 00:22:08.319 --> 00:22:17.920 And what I learned is that Robin Hood prediction market contracts revenue hit 173 million up over 6X this quarter. 00:22:18.079 --> 00:22:21.680 Equities revenue 121 million. 00:22:21.839 --> 00:22:26.079 They are making more money off prediction markets than equities. 00:22:26.240 --> 00:22:29.759 Now, to be fair, it doesn't count options. 00:22:30.240 --> 00:22:31.680 This is spot equities. 00:22:31.920 --> 00:22:36.880 They are making more money on prediction markets than spot equities. 00:22:37.119 --> 00:22:39.279 I'm sorry, but I couldn't believe it. 00:22:39.599 --> 00:22:42.880 I mean, we're probably how far are we away from them saying fuck it? 00:22:42.960 --> 00:22:44.400 We're doing gotcha. 00:22:44.799 --> 00:22:45.440 Insane. 00:22:45.599 --> 00:22:48.079 Genuinely insane when I saw that. 00:22:48.240 --> 00:22:49.839 I don't know what the implications of this are. 00:22:49.920 --> 00:22:51.039 There's no signs in the background. 00:22:51.119 --> 00:22:53.359 I don't know what the implications of this are, but it can't be great. 00:22:53.599 --> 00:22:54.160 Truly. 00:22:54.400 --> 00:22:55.359 It cannot be great. 00:22:55.519 --> 00:22:58.720 So wanted to call that out as this was happening. 00:22:58.799 --> 00:23:00.559 Also, I missed this, but I just saw this news. 00:23:00.640 --> 00:23:01.440 Thank you for the note. 00:23:01.599 --> 00:23:05.200 Um, Wendy's gets to take private offer at 735 a share. 00:23:05.279 --> 00:23:08.559 Is Wendy's on no, it's not on Trade XYZ. 00:23:08.720 --> 00:23:09.839 Yo, Shoku. 00:23:10.640 --> 00:23:12.720 Wendy's Wendy's 735. 00:23:13.119 --> 00:23:14.640 Wow, pretty sick trade. 00:23:14.799 --> 00:23:16.880 It's only at 708. 00:23:17.279 --> 00:23:18.160 It's up 15%. 00:23:18.559 --> 00:23:19.200 Is it on lighter? 00:23:19.359 --> 00:23:19.920 Is it on lighter? 00:23:20.079 --> 00:23:20.480 Is it really? 00:23:20.640 --> 00:23:22.160 Is that bullish or bearish hood? 00:23:22.240 --> 00:23:22.880 I don't know. 00:23:23.039 --> 00:23:23.519 I don't know. 00:23:23.680 --> 00:23:24.240 But I'll tell you this. 00:23:24.400 --> 00:23:27.359 Martin Kappa Robin Hood is 85. 00:23:27.680 --> 00:23:30.720 And they to my not they don't use Cal She, I don't think. 00:23:31.039 --> 00:23:33.039 And Cal she's 40. 00:23:33.119 --> 00:23:34.000 So they do. 00:23:34.079 --> 00:23:34.400 Okay, they do. 00:23:34.640 --> 00:23:34.880 Never mind. 00:23:35.039 --> 00:23:38.240 I thought they were were going to their own, is what I thought. 00:23:38.480 --> 00:23:40.160 Wendy's is on lighter. 00:23:40.240 --> 00:23:40.720 Nice. 00:23:41.039 --> 00:23:41.599 Nice. 00:23:42.079 --> 00:23:42.640 Nice. 00:23:42.880 --> 00:23:43.759 Look at that pump. 00:23:43.920 --> 00:23:44.400 How fast? 00:23:44.480 --> 00:23:45.359 How long do you have to take it? 00:23:45.440 --> 00:23:45.680 Wow. 00:23:45.759 --> 00:23:45.920 Five. 00:23:46.000 --> 00:23:46.720 That was in five minutes. 00:23:46.880 --> 00:23:48.559 Crazy how fast that happened. 00:23:48.640 --> 00:23:49.279 It's on lighter. 00:23:49.519 --> 00:23:49.920 GG. 00:23:50.079 --> 00:23:50.799 GG lighter. 00:23:51.200 --> 00:23:51.839 Straight up. 00:23:52.000 --> 00:23:52.480 All right. 00:23:52.720 -->

00:24:00.480 Um, it is 9 29 and 30 seconds on Wednesday, October 28th. 00:24:00.720 --> 00:24:01.440 Big day today. 00:24:01.599 --> 00:24:02.319 FOMC. 00:24:02.400 --> 00:24:03.039 We got a lot of stories. 00:24:03.279 --> 00:24:04.319 Gotta have a lot of through lines. 00:24:04.480 --> 00:24:09.759 Wendy's Robin Hood that we need to cover. 00:24:10.000 --> 00:24:12.480 It is 9:30 a.m. 00:24:12.720 --> 00:24:15.279 on Wednesday, October 28th. 00:24:15.680 --> 00:24:18.160 And the stock market is officially. 00:24:18.319 --> 00:24:19.119 That took some practice. 00:24:19.759 --> 00:24:21.920 Oh! Let's go, let's go, let's go. 00:24:22.000 --> 00:24:22.319 What do we got? 00:24:22.400 --> 00:24:22.720 What do we got? 00:24:22.799 --> 00:24:23.119 What do we got? 00:24:23.200 --> 00:24:24.640 Uh supply open is at 0.2. 00:24:24.799 --> 00:24:26.319 Is maybe saying all-time highs, man. 00:24:26.480 --> 00:24:27.279 It's gnarly. 00:24:27.759 --> 00:24:29.680 The thing is fucking gnarly. 00:24:30.079 --> 00:24:31.839 Um, it is gnarly. 00:24:32.319 --> 00:24:32.960 It's up 2%. 00:24:33.200 --> 00:24:34.319 Russell low cap is flat. 00:24:34.400 --> 00:24:39.359 The cospee was up six percent last night, which is crazy. 00:24:39.519 --> 00:24:41.039 NASDAQ 100 is up 0.17. 00:24:41.200 --> 00:24:42.000 The Dow was flat. 00:24:42.160 --> 00:24:43.599 Photonics are up 1.29. 00:24:43.759 --> 00:24:45.119 Neil Clutch are up 1.7. 00:24:45.519 --> 00:24:46.960 Ig V is down half a percent. 00:24:47.039 --> 00:24:48.000 Mags are up 0.4. 00:24:48.240 --> 00:24:50.079 Dram is up five. 00:24:50.960 --> 00:24:52.160 What the fuck? 00:24:52.400 --> 00:24:53.759 Soxel is up three. 00:24:53.839 --> 00:24:55.359 Dram is up five. 00:24:55.680 --> 00:24:56.720 Holy lord. 00:24:56.960 --> 00:24:58.079 Decent little bounce. 00:24:58.160 --> 00:24:59.119 I'm not gonna lie. 00:24:59.279 --> 00:25:00.319 Five whole percent. 00:25:00.400 --> 00:25:01.839 That's the best green day in a while. 00:25:01.920 --> 00:25:03.279 We've seen that fucking thing. 00:25:03.440 --> 00:25:04.640 Crypto on the open. 00:25:04.720 --> 00:25:06.480 Bitcoin is 80.6. 00:25:07.119 --> 00:25:10.720 Zach is 1288, down percent and a half. 00:25:10.880 --> 00:25:12.880 ETH 2337. 00:25:13.119 --> 00:25:16.079 Hype is down one, but that's 80 over 80, which is nice. 00:25:16.160 --> 00:25:17.119 Near is down 1.2. 00:25:17.200 --> 00:25:21.119 Lighter is down 2.7, pop down 2.6, silver's down a percent. 00:25:21.359 --> 00:25:22.319 Solana's flat. 00:25:22.400 --> 00:25:23.519 Stretch 99.6. 00:25:23.759 --> 00:25:24.319 Those are all down. 00:25:24.400 --> 00:25:29.039 30 years down 0.28, 10 years down 0.08, and the two-year is up technically 0.13. 00:25:29.519 --> 00:25:31.440 Um, the VIX, they updated the logo. 00:25:31.519 --> 00:25:32.640 Why is down a percent? 00:25:32.799 --> 00:25:34.240 Venice is down seven. 00:25:34.319 --> 00:25:35.359 How high did it go? 00:25:35.519 --> 00:25:36.640 Yeah, 26. 00:25:36.720 --> 00:25:37.359 That's fine. 00:25:37.519 --> 00:25:44.000 Um, gold is down a quarter, copper is flat, Monero is down 1.2, and XRP is down one. 00:25:44.400 --> 00:25:47.119 Brent oil back above 116. 00:25:47.200 --> 00:25:48.160 It's disgusting. 00:25:48.319 --> 00:25:49.359 It doesn't stop. 00:25:49.680 --> 00:25:51.039 It does not stop. 00:25:51.119 --> 00:25:52.240 Yo, Flood, where are you at? 00:25:52.319 --> 00:25:52.960 Is he in here? 00:25:53.039 --> 00:25:53.680 Let me tell you. 00:25:53.759 --> 00:25:56.000 I'm thinking not, but he's offline. 00:25:57.119 --> 00:25:58.720 Give that brother a break. 00:25:58.960 --> 00:26:01.920 Um, Brent up 1.7, crude up two. 00:26:02.000 --> 00:26:03.359 GD the bro who longed hood. 00:26:03.440 --> 00:26:03.839 Who? 00:26:04.000 --> 00:26:05.039 Wow, nice. 00:26:05.279 --> 00:26:08.240 Hood's down five, but candling green on the open. 00:26:08.319 --> 00:26:09.279 No emits over here. 00:26:09.359 --> 00:26:10.000 Welcome. 00:26:10.160 --> 00:26:11.920 Um, Raytheon is flat. 00:26:12.000 --> 00:26:13.039 Palantir's down 0.3. 00:26:13.200 --> 00:26:13.759 Where's Amit? 00:26:14.079 --> 00:26:16.880 Northrop's down 0.1, and Lockheed Martin is down 0.6. 00:26:17.200 --> 00:26:18.079 This is kind of scary. 00:26:18.160 --> 00:26:18.880 I'm gonna be honest. 00:26:18.960 --> 00:26:20.480 This Lockheed Martin chart. 00:26:20.640 --> 00:26:22.640 Um, look at that fucking thing. 00:26:22.799 --> 00:26:24.000 Is is is nuts. 00:26:24.160 --> 00:26:26.240 All right, big semis big AI, everything we care about. 00:26:26.400 --> 00:26:32.000 SK Heinex in last night's Korea session is up 11. 00:26:32.240 --> 00:26:35.440 Today in the US session, the ADR is up another 10. 00:26:35.680 --> 00:26:37.759 Sandisc lead of the way memory up five. 00:26:37.839 --> 00:26:40.319 Micron is right behind it, up five. 00:26:40.720 --> 00:26:46.400 Shaw's up 2.25, Bloom Energy is up 2.5, Marvell is up 2.5. 00:26:46.480 --> 00:26:47.759 I'm missing the Palantir event. 00:26:47.839 --> 00:26:48.720 What a fucking chat. 00:26:48.799 --> 00:26:50.400 Uh Lumentum's up 1.7. 00:26:50.480 --> 00:26:52.799 I have not heard from Diligent Plane in a while. 00:26:52.960 --> 00:26:54.319 Is he doing okay? 00:26:54.559 --> 00:26:56.079 Diligent Plane. 00:26:56.400 --> 00:26:58.240 He is doing okay. 00:26:58.400 --> 00:26:59.359 Wow, he's printing. 00:26:59.440 --> 00:27:00.720 I don't even he's printing. 00:27:00.960 --> 00:27:01.519 Hood. 00:27:01.759 --> 00:27:02.960 He's on liquid trading. 00:27:03.039 --> 00:27:04.319 Malcolm, interesting. 00:27:04.559 --> 00:27:08.880 Um, ranked number two in liquid trading over the past 24 hours up 7k. 00:27:09.440 --> 00:27:12.319 No PL portfolio post recently. 00:27:12.400 --> 00:27:15.279 DNA, see if you can find one on his account. 00:27:15.599 --> 00:27:17.519 But I know we like momentum, it's up 1%. 00:27:18.319 --> 00:27:19.680 Um, AMD. 00:27:19.920 --> 00:27:20.480 It's crazy.

00:27:20.640 --> 00:27:26.079 Robin Hood Options did 400 million last quarter and prediction markets at 173. 00:27:26.240 --> 00:27:27.519 How is that possible? 00:27:27.680 --> 00:27:29.279 Oh my lord, that's insane. 00:27:29.359 --> 00:27:30.319 How is that possible? 00:27:30.480 --> 00:27:31.839 It's oh my god. 00:27:32.000 --> 00:27:34.880 Arms up 1.7, Broadcom's up two, Nokia's up 1.5. 00:27:35.039 --> 00:27:35.599 How is that possible? 00:27:35.759 --> 00:27:37.119 Cloudflare 331. 00:27:37.200 --> 00:27:37.759 This is the classic. 00:27:38.079 --> 00:27:38.880 Anyone in the stream hold it? 00:27:38.960 --> 00:27:40.240 I know we've talked about it a bunch. 00:27:40.400 --> 00:27:41.440 How is that possible? 00:27:41.759 --> 00:27:47.039 Can you get a breakdown of what people are trading on uh event contracts in Robinhood, or that's not possible? 00:27:47.200 --> 00:27:49.119 It probably is bullish hyper liquid, by the way. 00:27:49.200 --> 00:27:53.680 HP4, uh twist is up two and a half, Intel is up half, Google's up 1.16. 00:27:53.759 --> 00:27:56.079 They released their new model, I forget what we're calling it. 00:27:56.240 --> 00:27:57.279 Genie 4. 00:27:57.359 --> 00:27:58.559 It's unbelievable. 00:27:58.799 --> 00:28:02.400 Oracle is flat, Rocket Lab's up 0.6, Amazon's up 0.5. 00:28:02.880 --> 00:28:09.119 Um, NVIDIA's up 0.6%, crowd check's up 1.5, fat margins up prediction markets, yeah. 00:28:09.279 --> 00:28:10.240 Um, wow, look at this. 00:28:10.319 --> 00:28:11.440 Palo Alto, high of the day. 00:28:11.519 --> 00:28:13.599 That's up 1.2% to 406. 00:28:13.839 --> 00:28:14.799 Devils down 0.25. 00:28:14.960 --> 00:28:19.920 Meta's back up 0.25, but crazy that this thing is at 620. 00:28:20.240 --> 00:28:23.920 It's down 20 off the muse highs. 00:28:24.079 --> 00:28:24.720 Oh my god. 00:28:24.799 --> 00:28:27.599 That was some of the worst foam I've ever felt in a trade in my life. 00:28:27.920 --> 00:28:29.839 Tesla is flat right on the open. 00:28:29.920 --> 00:28:31.839 Firefly's down half a percent, red wire is flat. 00:28:31.920 --> 00:28:33.039 Microsoft is up 0.5. 00:28:33.440 --> 00:28:36.000 Not sure if how much of this is layoffs or what it is. 00:28:36.079 --> 00:28:40.960 Apple's down a quarter, IBM's down a quarter, Qcom's down a quarter, Netflix down another percent. 00:28:41.119 --> 00:28:42.240 Robo Strategy is down one. 00:28:42.319 --> 00:28:43.119 ASTS is down two. 00:28:43.279 --> 00:28:48.720 Cerebrus, it never needs an explanation as to why it is dumping, it just dumps. 00:28:48.880 --> 00:28:50.880 Cerebrus is down 3.5. 00:28:51.279 --> 00:28:53.599 At some point, Netflix will be a generational long. 00:28:53.680 --> 00:29:03.519 I sort of disagree with you because this you could be playing the real life return of Christ on TV and not be able to get a 15-year-old off their phone in TikTok. 00:29:03.680 --> 00:29:05.440 Netflix is fucked. 00:29:05.759 --> 00:29:10.960 I don't have the capability to watch a regular show without double stim. 00:29:11.119 --> 00:29:13.119 I'm just gonna keep it completely honest. 00:29:13.279 --> 00:29:14.799 I need double stim on everything. 00:29:14.960 --> 00:29:17.839 I'm either reading or mat or triple stimed at all the time. 00:29:17.920 --> 00:29:20.079 Broadcom is moving sword up 350. 00:29:20.240 --> 00:29:21.519 I just need triple stim. 00:29:21.680 --> 00:29:24.079 Uh Netflix is uh in trouble for me. 00:29:24.319 --> 00:29:27.599 SpaceX is down two, Blackberry's flat, Dobie's down half. 00:29:27.759 --> 00:29:28.799 Yeah, Sravi's now down four. 00:29:28.880 --> 00:29:29.279 Look at this thing. 00:29:29.359 --> 00:29:30.079 There's crater. 00:29:30.160 --> 00:29:33.440 It there's no ex it never needs any explanation on any given day. 00:29:33.519 --> 00:29:35.200 Uh micron's up six percent. 00:29:35.279 --> 00:29:36.799 We're about to be back over a thousand. 00:29:37.200 --> 00:29:38.880 Sand disk is also up six percent. 00:29:38.960 --> 00:29:42.480 Look at these, all of a sudden, these charts start to look relatively interesting. 00:29:42.720 --> 00:29:43.279 Sand disc. 00:29:43.519 --> 00:29:50.400 I think micron micron back above the thousands emphatically, and some are you back in if it reclaims that level? 00:29:50.559 --> 00:29:51.279 It looks good. 00:29:51.359 --> 00:29:55.279 I mean, Dram is up over five, soxel is up two and a half. 00:29:55.440 --> 00:29:56.240 Missed some memory entries. 00:29:56.319 --> 00:30:00.640 I mean, to be fair, not that much has really happened on the memory entries. 00:30:01.119 --> 00:30:02.720 We're probably gonna FOMC. 00:30:02.880 --> 00:30:08.400 It feels like I'm gonna do some FOMC coverage here in a minute, but it there isn't really it's up 50% off the bottom. 00:30:08.559 --> 00:30:14.079 There isn't, I mean, we're basically like 99% chance of hold here. 00:30:14.319 --> 00:30:15.119 What are we at? 00:30:15.359 --> 00:30:19.440 94.8% chance of hold. 00:30:19.519 --> 00:30:21.200 Uh from what I understand. 00:30:22.240 --> 00:30:24.559 Um, Kenny, uh, get the fuck out of here, man. 00:30:24.640 --> 00:30:26.079 We're here to talk about trades, not answer. 00:30:26.400 --> 00:30:27.519 Get the fuck out of here. 00:30:28.160 --> 00:30:30.480 Um, it's gonna hold. 00:30:30.720 --> 00:30:32.079 They it seems to be. 00:30:32.240 --> 00:30:34.640 We don't have forward guidance, but it seems as if they're gonna hold. 00:30:34.720 --> 00:30:35.839 All right, let's get D Nap. 00:30:36.160 --> 00:30:36.799 Get rid of them, please. 00:30:36.880 --> 00:30:39.680 Uh, they're gonna hold, but it apparently it's leading up to midterms. 00:30:39.839 --> 00:30:41.440 FOMC they don't really do much. 00:30:41.759 --> 00:30:49.519 But we will see what happens post-midterms on Tuesday, which I'm gonna do my best to stream, but to to my understanding, it uh it's like long. 00:30:49.599 --> 00:30:51.279 Like how long, let's go. 00:30:51.599 --> 00:30:52.640 Good afternoon. 00:30:53.039

--> 00:30:53.759 Good day. 00:30:53.920 --> 00:31:04.960 This morning, the FOMC decided to have a target rate for the federal funds rate at three and three-quarters to four percent in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. 00:31:05.519 --> 00:31:09.759 Economic activity is expanding at a strong pace. 00:31:10.000 --> 00:31:22.319 While uncertainty remains, owing in part to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient, productivity growth is strong, and capital investment robust. 00:31:23.039 --> 00:31:27.839 Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little. 00:31:28.240 --> 00:31:28.799 Am I behind? 00:31:29.200 --> 00:31:31.920 But inflation remains elevated. 00:31:32.160 --> 00:31:44.640 The committee believes that the accumulation of more information will help it determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the 2% goal. 00:31:44.880 --> 00:31:47.599 The committee will deliver price stability. 00:31:48.240 --> 00:31:54.319 At each policy meeting, my colleagues and I assess the economy by looking at the window. 00:31:54.480 --> 00:31:57.279 It's what we call interrogating reality. 00:31:57.440 --> 00:32:02.400 To gauge what's really going on, it is not a task that has grown easier. 00:32:02.799 --> 00:32:05.039 So, what exactly do we observe? 00:32:05.519 --> 00:32:08.799 Economically has strengthened. 00:32:09.279 --> 00:32:19.039 The GDP increase in the first half of this year was revised up from an earlier estimate of 1.8% up to 2.4%. 00:32:20.079 --> 00:32:35.839 And the third quarter appears to have brought an even more rapid advance, led by healthy consumer spending, likely running above 3% growth, and business investment likely rising at about a double-digit pace. 00:32:36.160 --> 00:32:40.720 Capital expenditures are at a historically high share of GDP. 00:32:41.440 --> 00:32:44.799 High tech investment is leading the acceleration. 00:32:44.960 --> 00:32:50.240 But there's also been a broadening in other categories, and these trends bear watching. 00:32:50.480 --> 00:32:52.160 What about the jobless rate? 00:32:52.400 --> 00:32:54.799 The jobless rate is lower than a year ago. 00:32:55.519 --> 00:32:59.839 And noticeably above last year's pace. 00:33:00.160 --> 00:33:07.839 The four-week moving average of unemployment insurance claims continues to run at the lowest level in generations. 00:33:08.720 --> 00:33:14.160 So on the employment side of the Fed's dual maintenance conditions are quite positive. 00:33:14.720 --> 00:33:24.319 And yet Americans, of course, are still dealing with inflation that has been running above the committee's objective for close to six years. 00:33:24.720 --> 00:33:28.079 It's our responsibility to get inflation down. 00:33:28.400 --> 00:33:36.559 That's the reason the FOMC's discussion over the last couple of days focused mainly on the price stability side of our remit. 00:33:37.680 --> 00:33:45.359 Since our policy action in September, we have started to see some changes in financial and credit conditions. 00:33:45.599 --> 00:33:50.720 They have tightened for some businesses and households, much as we would expect. 00:33:51.200 --> 00:33:56.079 Market participants are becoming somewhat more discerning in their capital allocations. 00:33:56.319 --> 00:34:03.519 And while overall financial conditions are tighter, I'm unwilling and unable to call them tight. 00:34:03.920 --> 00:34:14.079 But broadly, these developments go in the direction of achieving a longer, more durable period of economic growth and price stability. 00:34:14.480 --> 00:34:15.519 OWKI. 00:34:17.360 --> 00:34:21.360 Keep talking! Focusing, as I say, on the left side of the decimal point. 00:34:21.679 --> 00:34:23.920 I appreciate your attention this afternoon. 00:34:24.079 --> 00:34:26.559 Now my time is yours, and I welcome your questions. 00:34:27.199 --> 00:34:27.519 Wow. 00:34:28.480 --> 00:34:29.280 What did he just say? 00:34:29.440 --> 00:34:29.840 What does that mean? 00:34:29.920 --> 00:34:30.639 I don't know what that means. 00:34:32.079 --> 00:34:32.719 Why is that a big deal? 00:34:32.960 --> 00:34:36.639 There's been essentially no progress toward the two percent inflation target. 00:34:36.880 --> 00:34:40.880 The labor market remains stable, as you suggested in your opening statement. 00:34:40.960 --> 00:34:45.280 And most of your colleagues seem to be on board with raising rates in December. 00:34:45.440 --> 00:34:47.360 So why not just raise rates today? 00:34:48.320 --> 00:34:49.920 Um so it's a good question. 00:34:50.320 --> 00:34:55.199 I will say I read your stories the last day or two, so I must admit I sort of saw saw that question coming. 00:34:55.280 --> 00:34:56.880 Um see flirting. 00:34:57.440 --> 00:35:07.679 What I said in my prepared statement um was information coming in the coming period will help us tell us where we want to be, but I suspect you want a little more than that. 00:35:07.760 --> 00:35:08.800 So let me let me give it a shot. 00:35:09.039 --> 00:35:13.039 Maybe no hike! Um ensuring price stability, Colby. 00:35:13.360 --> 00:35:19.760 Quashing inflation is not about some fixed inju individual date on a calendar. 00:35:20.159 --> 00:35:24.159 Same way it's not about some isolated data point. 00:35:24.639 --> 00:35:32.239 If it were about those two things, this job would be easier, and we wouldn't be suffering from nearly six years of inflation above target. 00:35:32.639 --> 00:35:34.000 So what's this about? 00:35:34.239 --> 00:35:36.559 It's about ensuring we have clear objectives. 00:35:36.960 --> 00:35:43.360 It's not fancy monetary policy strategy, which might sound to your ear and others like a change. 00:35:43.679 --> 00:35:45.280 I read your article several years. 00:35:45.760 --> 00:35:47.280 So let me step back. 00:35:47.519 --> 00:35:55.039 Uh in the five months or so that I've been around, we've put in place what I describe as

new monetary medicine. 00:35:55.519 --> 00:35:58.480 Well, what's been in that package of medicine? 00:35:58.960 --> 00:36:06.000 First thing we did when we showed up with my colleagues is we doubled down on the 2% inflation target. 00:36:06.239 --> 00:36:09.519 We said, we own it, we're taking responsibility for it. 00:36:09.840 --> 00:36:10.639 Sly dog wars. 00:36:10.880 --> 00:36:16.239 And if you think that we're tolerating some inflation targets somewhere in the twos, let us disabuse you of it. 00:36:16.880 --> 00:36:17.280 That's the first part. 00:36:17.599 --> 00:36:19.360 Oh, oracles of 10% medicine. 00:36:19.840 --> 00:36:21.679 Second part is we took responsibility. 00:36:21.840 --> 00:36:25.199 No anguish of central banking here, no blaming others. 00:36:25.440 --> 00:36:27.280 It's a third thing that we've done. 00:36:27.440 --> 00:36:30.639 We laid out for you and the world our framework. 00:36:30.800 --> 00:36:32.239 I did it in Jackson Hole. 00:36:32.320 --> 00:36:34.400 Uh was part of the discussion the last couple days. 00:36:34.559 --> 00:36:37.360 There's the framework that many of my colleagues hew to as well. 00:36:37.599 --> 00:36:40.960 This is how we think about how monetary policy should work. 00:36:41.760 --> 00:36:44.719 These are the transmission mechanisms, and this is how we're going to deliver. 00:36:45.119 --> 00:36:46.719 Lay that shit out for me what's do. 00:36:46.800 --> 00:36:47.599 We interrogate reality. 00:36:47.840 --> 00:36:48.239 Hell yeah. 00:36:48.320 --> 00:36:49.360 Answer that question for me, Wars. 00:36:49.840 --> 00:36:51.199 That's a very useful thing to do. 00:36:52.400 --> 00:36:54.079 But we don't just talk, we act. 00:36:54.239 --> 00:37:00.480 And so in September, when we last we removed a dose of accommodation. 00:37:00.800 --> 00:37:04.480 So, what are the signposts about how this new strategy is going? 00:37:04.880 --> 00:37:09.039 Inflation compensation as measured by swaps, prices, many other measures. 00:37:09.199 --> 00:37:11.599 Inflation compensation is going in the right way. 00:37:12.000 --> 00:37:13.440 Uh inflation expectations. 00:37:13.760 --> 00:37:16.800 She's like, I just want to know about is quite unsettled. 00:37:17.280 --> 00:37:22.079 Um if you'd say absent the Fed, what would have happened to expectations? 00:37:22.320 --> 00:37:23.280 They might have gone the wrong way. 00:37:23.440 --> 00:37:24.880 They've gone the right way too. 00:37:25.119 --> 00:37:27.840 So I feel good about those signposts. 00:37:28.079 --> 00:37:32.400 The period right in front of us is information rich. 00:37:32.639 --> 00:37:35.599 There is a lot that's happening uh in the world. 00:37:35.840 --> 00:37:38.719 My colleagues and I are keen to take notice of it. 00:37:38.880 --> 00:37:42.960 So in this coming period, what do I think we're going to be able to do? 00:37:43.199 --> 00:37:52.800 We're going to be able to figure out what's the appropriate protocol as part of this package that we

started to deliver five months ago to deliver price stability. 00:37:52.960 --> 00:37:56.559 Uh I'm encouraged by the progress we've made in a short period of time. 00:37:56.800 --> 00:38:02.960 But if the crux of your question is you haven't delivered yet, you haven't achieved price stability, you're right about that. 00:38:03.039 --> 00:38:04.239 Uh, but we're working on it. 00:38:04.480 --> 00:38:06.960 I heard a whole bunch of nothing, I'm gonna be honest. 00:38:07.119 --> 00:38:09.039 The only thing I heard is they're doing less meetings. 00:38:09.119 --> 00:38:11.920 Bro, your stream honestly puts me in a good mood. 00:38:12.000 --> 00:38:12.719 This is my goal. 00:38:12.800 --> 00:38:16.400 Uh actually, it's not really my goal, but I'm glad that it works. 00:38:16.480 --> 00:38:17.360 Fed out show is tough. 00:38:17.440 --> 00:38:18.880 Okay, gamblers, what are we thinking? 00:38:19.119 --> 00:38:22.639 Bring back Powell, Warsh ends press conference, worst ends press conference. 00:38:22.960 --> 00:38:23.840 State of the news, by the way. 00:38:23.920 --> 00:38:24.800 Bring back Powell. 00:38:25.119 --> 00:38:26.320 Gamblers, what are we thinking? 00:38:26.480 --> 00:38:29.280 Warsh ends press conference, Warsh ends press conference. 00:38:29.519 --> 00:38:32.079 Tenure yield is up. 00:38:32.719 --> 00:38:34.639 FOMC, you mean the FOMO event? 00:38:34.800 --> 00:38:35.760 Economy is running too hot. 00:38:35.840 --> 00:38:38.320 That is not the judgment of most of my colleagues. 00:38:38.639 --> 00:38:41.679 Warsh, uh, most of the Fed don't think it's running too hot. 00:38:41.920 --> 00:38:42.480 Phantom. 00:38:43.199 --> 00:38:50.639 Worsh just called out the governor of the Bank of Korea and said he's talented in Gladys and managing the Central Bank of Korea. 00:38:50.960 --> 00:38:51.440 Warsh. 00:38:51.519 --> 00:38:52.960 I pay more attention to Korea than you might think. 00:38:53.119 --> 00:38:54.559 That was definitely bullish. 00:38:54.719 --> 00:38:55.840 Um, summary. 00:38:56.000 --> 00:38:58.480 They're eliminating one interest rate setting vote. 00:38:58.719 --> 00:39:01.760 They hold just six policy meetings in 2028, down from eight currently. 00:39:01.840 --> 00:39:04.719 Overwhelming consensus that monetary medicine is starting to work. 00:39:04.880 --> 00:39:05.840 According to what? 00:39:05.920 --> 00:39:08.000 What what what are our metrics for like healthy Fed? 00:39:08.079 --> 00:39:09.039 I'm not sure. 00:39:09.280 --> 00:39:13.039 Uh says he's unwilling and unable to call financial conditions tight. 00:39:14.400 --> 00:39:16.480 Um, he says inflation remains elevated. 00:39:16.639 --> 00:39:18.079 They're waiting for more information. 00:39:18.320 --> 00:39:19.519 I will see you tomorrow. 00:39:19.599 --> 00:39:20.800 That's two streams for today. 00:39:21.039 --> 00:39:22.639 Market's boring, but this is when it's important. 00:39:22.719 --> 00:39:23.039 I'm sorry. 00:39:23.119 --> 00:39:24.320 It is what it is, it ain't what it ain't. 00:39:24.559 --> 00:39:26.400 There is not much I can do. 00:39:26.639 --> 00:39:29.119 Um, so we're gonna keep doing what we do. 00:39:29.199 --> 00:39:34.400 If you're new here, if you pulled up for FOMC, I'm here every morning at 8 30 a.m. 00:39:34.480 --> 00:39:34.880 EST. 00:39:34.960 --> 00:39:36.800 Jackson Ray talking about some great stream. 00:39:36.880 --> 00:39:40.320 Like you show up once every month for FOMC. 00:39:40.559 --> 00:39:42.960 Get the fuck out of here, man. 00:39:43.039 --> 00:39:44.320 I know what you did. 00:39:44.719 --> 00:39:45.920 Love you too, Solomon. 00:39:46.000 --> 00:39:47.840 I know who you are, I know what you're about. 00:39:48.079 --> 00:39:51.039 Okay, you live on I know what you're about, man. 00:39:51.440 --> 00:39:53.440 It's like, give me a break, dude. 00:39:53.760 --> 00:39:55.440 8 30 a.m., Jackson Ray. 00:39:55.599 --> 00:39:56.400 I'll see you there tomorrow. 00:39:56.559 --> 00:39:57.360 I know I will. 00:39:57.599 --> 00:39:59.199 Um, I love you guys, I believe in you. 00:39:59.280 --> 00:40:00.559 I know, part timer. 00:40:00.880 --> 00:40:02.800 Part timer, and you're talking about a great stream. 00:40:02.880 --> 00:40:03.920 It's like, all right, bro. 00:40:04.079 --> 00:40:04.559 Was it? 00:40:04.639 --> 00:40:06.000 How would you even know it was a great stream? 00:40:06.079 --> 00:40:06.880 Compared to what? 00:40:07.199 --> 00:40:08.639 Compared to the last months? 00:40:09.039 --> 00:40:10.480 How would you even know what it is?