บทถอดความฉบับเต็มของ 124: Why Bitcoin Ripped

by almost 6%. 29 00:02:20,480 --> 00:02:21,140 We'll see at the end. 30 00:02:21,240 --> 00:02:22,060 Actually, I could tell you right now. 31 00:02:22,100 --> 00:02:23,780 Let's take a look right now just because it's interesting. 32 00:02:24,580 --> 00:02:25,120 Oh, man. 33 00:02:25,440 --> 00:02:26,080 Look at this. 34 00:02:26,560 --> 00:02:29,560 So in the last 24 hours, Bitcoin is up 5.7%. 35 00:02:29,560 --> 00:02:37,120 It's up 8% since the last episode, currently sitting at 68,420, which is the most strength 36 00:02:37,120 --> 00:02:39,920 we have seen since really the bear market took hold. 37 00:02:39,920 --> 00:02:42,600 We really haven't broke above 65 very often. 38 00:02:42,820 --> 00:02:47,300 This is a very strong, although maybe temporary, but a very strong pump right now. 39 00:02:47,500 --> 00:02:50,720 We're up. That means our 30 day price is up 5 percent. 40 00:02:51,220 --> 00:02:52,700 So this is a real move here. 41 00:02:53,140 --> 00:02:56,740 And it's a real move for the very reasons Bitcoin was designed for. 42 00:02:57,260 --> 00:03:00,780 Quote, I have spent five decades trading on a simple premise. 43 00:03:01,220 --> 00:03:07,900 Markets aggregate information no committee possesses and prices are how that information reaches decision makers. 44 00:03:08,320 --> 00:03:12,180 The long term treasury yield is the most important price in the world. 45 00:03:12,180 --> 00:03:16,680 It is also the only fiscal disciplinarian the U.S. has left. 46 00:03:16,920 --> 00:03:17,380 End quote. 47 00:03:17,500 --> 00:03:31,020 Stan, a longtime advocate of entitlement reform, pushes back on Besant's moves, especially hard here, and says the steps Besant is taking amount to procrastination, putting off what really must be done to meaningfully address U.S. debt. 48 00:03:31,420 --> 00:03:33,620 That means reforming Social Security and Medicare. 49 00:03:34,060 --> 00:03:36,540 That means creating a responsible budget. 50 00:03:36,540 --> 00:03:53,980 He lays out how Besson and the government have not only given the game away here, but they, like Trump on trade and Iran, have again misunderstood their power and influence and will quickly learn that they have miscalculated and cannot impose their will on others with the might that they think they have. 51 00:03:53,980 --> 00:04:03,880 My take is Druck's core point was that if you tell the market you're going to be supplying it like this, they're going to adapt to that and you're just going to see the yield continue to rise. 52 00:04:03,960 --> 00:04:06,100 It'll become the new norm, which is kind of what's happening. 53 00:04:06,100 --> 00:04:10,580 But the Treasury said they're doubling down. They will continue to support it if they need to. 54 00:04:11,140 --> 00:04:17,180 And investors, they seem to be just more skeptical about the long-term possibility of financing Washington's debt. 55 00:04:17,540 --> 00:04:26,040 And unfortunately, we live in a world with a lot of uncertainty

right now, not only politically, but on the monetary side as well. 56 00:04:26,100 --> 00:04:28,840 And I think that's what we're seeing on Bitcoin right now. 57 00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:33,840 It's a lot of like the realization that this is a very different asset from what we've seen before. 58 00:04:36,100 --> 00:04:41,560 And it's not just the tether guy saying it. 59 00:04:42,040 --> 00:04:52,620 That's the point I'm trying to make here is there has been a tone shift around Bitcoin with the suits that seems to have really stuck after this treasury decision. 60 00:04:52,980 --> 00:04:55,420 And that narrative kind of went on blast this week. 61 00:04:55,860 --> 00:04:57,240 That's really what I'm noticing. 62 00:04:57,520 --> 00:04:59,340 Here's BlackRock's head of digital assets. 63 00:04:59,800 --> 00:05:02,040 They're seeing a shift at the institutional level. 64 00:05:02,040 --> 00:05:28,340 So there's periods where it's behaving more risk on, and that's partly driven by some of the speculative traders that exist in the market, often with leverage. And there's periods where it behaves more risk off. And certainly in the last couple of weeks, the latter narrative has risen back to the forefront. I think in the long run, that's the narrative to bet on around Bitcoin. That's how most of the long term institutional type investors that we engage with are seeing it. 65 00:05:28,340 --> 00:05:33,620 that's how the long-term institutional investors that they engage with, BlackRock, 66 00:05:34,080 --> 00:05:35,380 that's how they're seeing it. 67 00:05:35,980 --> 00:05:39,960 So not only is it BlackRock's position, but that's how their clients are seeing it. 68 00:05:40,000 --> 00:05:41,160 That's what he's saying right now. 69 00:05:41,200 --> 00:05:41,960 That's what Robby's saying. 70 00:05:42,740 --> 00:05:46,380 Institutional-type investors that we engage with are seeing it. 71 00:05:47,080 --> 00:05:49,680 And the idea is that Bitcoin, by its nature, 72 00:05:50,260 --> 00:05:54,180 is this global, scarce, decentralized, emerging monetary alternative. 73 00:05:54,180 --> 00:06:00,240 and ultimately its long run risk and return drivers are going to be quite distinct from 74 00:06:00,240 --> 00:06:02,560 most other asset classes that investors have. 75 00:06:02,920 --> 00:06:06,460 And then as of like three weeks ago was, well, it's going to be at least 4 billion guys. 76 00:06:06,560 --> 00:06:09,080 It's not a big deal, but it's going to be like 4 billion just to, you know, provide 77 00:06:09,080 --> 00:06:10,200 some buyer pressure here. 78 00:06:10,560 --> 00:06:16,260 And then this, well, today it was announced that it's going to be 6 billion now, still 79 00:06:16,260 --> 00:06:18,780 small outstained versus the outstanding debt, right? 80 00:06:18,800 --> 00:06:20,200 Because we're talking tens of trillions of dollars. 81 00:06:20,280 --> 00:06:23,200 So still overall a drop in the bucket. 82 00:06:23,200 --> 00:06:30,800 but it is large

compared to any single 2000 to 2002 operation. It's larger than average for sure. 83 00:06:31,160 --> 00:06:37,740 But what's big is the noise they're making around it. That's the unusual part. It seems to me like 84 00:06:37,740 --> 00:06:42,960 they're making a lot of fuss about this, trying to get people to notice it. And I don't know what 85 00:06:42,960 --> 00:06:50,180 that's about. I think a lot of people are reading it as Buffalo Besson hubris. I don't know so much. 86 00:06:50,180 --> 00:06:52,760 The bond market just said, screw you. 87 00:06:53,000 --> 00:06:55,860 And literally on the news, the yield rallied higher. 88 00:06:56,420 --> 00:07:01,140 So like on the news, like just did the opposite of what the Treasury wants. 89 00:07:01,280 --> 00:07:05,940 So it seems to me the bond market is quite literally fighting Buffalo Besant right now. 90 00:07:05,960 --> 00:07:13,020 And as the Iran war continues and the 10 year note is getting higher and higher, if they 91 00:07:13,020 --> 00:07:20,120 don't have some sort of pressure release valve here, we could see next week the 10 year yield 92 00:07:20,120 --> 00:07:26,200 rise above 5%. And I say that because I pulled it up on a chart today, and we're up 100 basis 93 00:07:26,200 --> 00:07:31,620 points since the Iran war began on the 10-year. It's just doot-doot-doot-doot-doot-doot. It just 94 00:07:31,620 --> 00:07:37,180 keeps ticking up on like a clock. It's just block by block almost. I mean, it's impressive. 95 00:07:37,620 --> 00:07:42,680 So we're on track here for something that ain't so good. The economic war is getting real, 96 00:07:42,680 --> 00:07:48,540 and the U.S. is starting to struggle. Everything basically goes up when diesel goes up. It's one 97 00:07:48,540 --> 00:07:53,180 of the key inputs to the economy because so many things move by diesel or involved with 98 00:07:53,180 --> 00:07:56,200 manufacturing or creation of food or housing, et cetera, et cetera. 99 00:07:56,660 --> 00:07:57,760 Diesel prices go up. 100 00:07:57,920 --> 00:07:59,240 Everything goes up. 101 00:07:59,280 --> 00:08:04,640 And I've been saying now for a few weeks, the longer this conflict has gone on, the more 102 00:08:04,640 --> 00:08:07,840 the knobs of pressure get turned up on the energy market. 103 00:08:08,380 --> 00:08:10,440 The bond market gets harder to control. 104 00:08:10,560 --> 00:08:14,500 We've been witnessing that, you know, Buffalo Besson's just kind of pissing in the wind 105 00:08:14,500 --> 00:08:15,420 with his buybacks. 106 00:08:15,820 --> 00:08:18,740 And the world economy ends up getting squeezed from both ends. 107 00:08:18,860 --> 00:08:21,400 We get inflation and you get also the risk of stagflation. 108 00:08:21,780 --> 00:08:24,820 We are now in a total rock and hard place. 109 00:08:25,340 --> 00:08:28,020 And this is a total 180 from where we were back in February. 110 00:08:28,480 --> 00:08:29,680 This is Stephen Major. 111 00:08:29,860 --> 00:08:46,460 He

brings up how much things have shifted since just before the conflict started Back in February of this year before the war in this region started that was on the 27th of February the yield on 10 treasuries was below 4 and the market was implying three cuts 112 00:08:46,700 --> 00:08:53,120 Here we are, six, seven months later, we've got 5% 10-year yields and three hikes. So one thing I 113 00:08:53,120 --> 00:09:00,880 would say is that you've had a six-rate hike move in the space of six, seven months. That's 150 114 00:09:00,880 --> 00:09:07,500 basis points. That explains the entirety of that 10-year yield shift and a bit more, really. 115 00:09:07,920 --> 00:09:12,100 So I think that a lot of the narrative out there has got very bearish on bonds, 116 00:09:12,160 --> 00:09:16,460 and it tends to talk about fiscal policy in the same breath as being bearish and about 117 00:09:16,460 --> 00:09:21,780 the supply of bonds and all of the inflation risk premium and what have you. I just don't 118 00:09:21,780 --> 00:09:27,340 really see it. The term premium hasn't gone up. People have been claiming that it has. It has not 119 00:09:27,340 --> 00:09:33,120 gone up. You can see it on the Bloomberg terminal. The curve has flattened because it's been pricing 120 00:09:33,120 --> 00:09:38,560 in the rate hikes. Inflation expectations are controlled. Spot inflation is a bit higher. 121 00:09:38,880 --> 00:09:45,200 So I could see one hike and then next year we could be back into the easing mode. It's the war 122 00:09:45,200 --> 00:09:52,320 in this region that has ruined the best laid plans. I mean, the best laid plans, whose best 123 00:09:52,320 --> 00:09:57,060 laid plant pans? Buffalo Bessent, of course. He said he was the house and the market said, 124 00:09:57,160 --> 00:10:01,980 okay, sure. Hold my beer. Three on the rules around any of it. So Bessent's going off and 125 00:10:01,980 --> 00:10:07,160 doing his own thing. And the growth story that we've all been counting on is undermining and 126 00:10:07,160 --> 00:10:12,900 sabotaging itself. Every one of these problems eventually comes back to just, I think, a basic 127 00:10:12,900 --> 00:10:18,880 question. Who controls the money? Who sets the price of capital? And who gets rescued if any of 128 00:10:18,880 --> 00:10:23,640 this breaks because it's not you and me individually, right? Bitcoin doesn't fix an 129 00:10:23,640 --> 00:10:30,040 energy shock. It doesn't fix a broken Congress. It doesn't fix a freaking bond market out. 130 00:10:30,240 --> 00:10:36,340 Doesn't help it. Doesn't fix it. But it does give you an asset outside of all of that, 131 00:10:37,140 --> 00:10:42,500 detached from the bailout community. It doesn't worry about forward guidance on the long term. 132 00:10:42,620 --> 00:10:48,740 Doesn't require a 12 to 0 vote to set the price. Doesn't include any rescue. There's no rescue 133 00:10:48,740 --> 00:11:04,780 with Bitcoin. And that brings us back to present time. And

what you've really got to wrap your 134 00:11:04,780 --> 00:11:11,080 noodle around is why no bailouts for Bitcoin is one of its best features. So let's just recap how 135 00:11:11,080 --> 00:11:16,380 the bailouts are going, how the management is doing. Let's see, we have the bond market that 136 00:11:16,380 --> 00:11:21,840 is fighting Bessent. We have energy constraints that are coming and going. We have inflation 137 00:11:21,840 --> 00:11:28,080 pressures that seem to be temporary, yet then long-term, transitory, but yet not. And the 138 00:11:28,080 --> 00:11:33,820 central banks, looking at all of this, including the United States Central Bank, started raising 139 00:11:33,820 --> 00:11:35,520 rates this last week. 140 00:11:35,680 --> 00:11:42,560 I am in New York. Over the past two weeks, our economists here at Morgan Stanley have revised 141 00:11:42,560 --> 00:11:50,240 their outlooks for the Fed, the ECB, and the Bank of Japan to include more rate hikes. Each economy 142 00:11:50,240 --> 00:11:55,140 faces different challenges, but all three central banks have arrived at roughly the same conclusion. 143 00:11:55,660 --> 00:11:59,920 Growth has remained remarkably resilient despite all of these shocks hitting the global economy, 144 00:12:00,240 --> 00:12:04,740 and renewed energy price pressures have increased the risk that inflation proves more persistent 145 00:12:04,740 --> 00:12:10,340 than they had previously expected. The clearest example and our biggest revision here is the Fed. 146 00:12:10,980 --> 00:12:14,940 Now, for much of this year, we had actually thought the Fed might avoid hiking interest 147 00:12:14,940 --> 00:12:15,620 rates altogether. 148 00:12:16,240 --> 00:12:21,400 But in addition to this increase that we just saw at the September FOMC meeting, we now 149 00:12:21,400 --> 00:12:26,700 expect two additional rate hikes in December and in March that'll bring the terminal rate 150 00:12:26,700 --> 00:12:28,640 up to four and a quarter to four and a half. 151 00:12:29,880 --> 00:12:33,320 So the 10-year did slip back below 5% after the Fed rate hike. 152 00:12:34,280 --> 00:12:39,740 And so the Fed's essentially, they're doing what people would call hiking rates on the 153 00:12:39,740 --> 00:12:40,220 front end. 154 00:12:40,340 --> 00:12:42,080 The immediate number, right? 155 00:12:42,460 --> 00:12:44,900 And then the long end, the bond market, it falls. 156 00:12:44,900 --> 00:12:51,020 When that happens, that actually can ease valuation pressure on long-term and risk assets, 157 00:12:51,160 --> 00:12:53,140 which is part of why Bitcoin ripped. 158 00:12:53,640 --> 00:13:00,320 So it is surprising to see Bitcoin rip after a Fed rate hike, but you got to kind of adjust 159 00:13:00,320 --> 00:13:02,480 your thinking and your narrative around this. 160 00:13:03,220 --> 00:13:09,200 We've gone into the fiscal dominance story plenty, but there's just a different game 161 00:13:09,200 --> 00:13:10,040 at play here, right? 162 00:13:10,040 --> 00:13:18,880 And overall, if you look at if you look at what the actual inflation rates are, the Fed is still there still is an easy policy still. 163 00:13:18,960 --> 00:13:19,800 There's still room in there. 164 00:13:19,880 --> 00:13:26,680 So it's one of those things where if they kept raising, right, if they kept on hiking, I could see Bitcoin struggling with that. 165 00:13:26,800 --> 00:13:31,220 But in the short term, because of the dynamics in the bond market, it's actually made people bullish again. 166 00:13:31,220 --> 00:13:38,640 And the other narrative that I think needed adjustment in all of this is Bitcoin pumped despite the failure of the Clarity Act. 167 00:13:39,260 --> 00:13:40,120 A Clarity Act. 168 00:13:40,200 --> 00:13:43,980 And I had been tapping the brakes on the Clarity Act the entire time, 169 00:13:44,100 --> 00:13:46,540 but others had started to build up momentum. 170 00:13:46,860 --> 00:13:47,900 I like Jordy Vesser. 171 00:13:48,460 --> 00:13:49,440 I think he's a good guy. 172 00:13:49,580 --> 00:13:53,880 But he was suggesting that we kind of needed the Clarity Act to really see Bitcoin pump. 173 00:13:54,240 --> 00:13:56,120 If we got anything positive on Clarity, 174 00:13:56,860 --> 00:14:01,060 I think crypto would go up far faster than people realize. 175 00:14:01,600 --> 00:14:03,260 And Bitcoin 100K if we get Clarity? 176 00:14:03,720 --> 00:14:04,020 Yes. 177 00:14:04,020 --> 00:14:04,940 I mean, who knows? 178 00:14:05,320 --> 00:14:06,140 I guess we'll never know. 179 00:14:06,580 --> 00:14:07,480 But we'll see. 180 00:14:07,480 --> 00:14:11,600 I did enjoy CNBC's attempt to catch up on what the heck's going on. 181 00:14:11,840 --> 00:14:15,780 Right. They clearly are just not getting their Bitcoin takes from the right place. 182 00:14:16,020 --> 00:14:19,020 Because when Bitcoin rips, their heads just spin. 183 00:14:19,220 --> 00:14:23,860 You're on set with us as Neoclassic Capital's co-founder and managing partner, Michael Buchella. 184 00:14:24,440 --> 00:14:26,560 Buchella. Anyway, it's a running joke. 185 00:14:27,040 --> 00:14:32,300 It is great to have you here. And we're not I'm not trying to conflate clarity with Bitcoin. 186 00:14:32,300 --> 00:14:36,680 The Bitcoiners told us it mattered, even though there's not really a one to one obvious. 187 00:14:36,680 --> 00:14:38,220 Gosh darn Bitcoiners. 188 00:14:38,440 --> 00:14:39,480 You know, relationship there. 189 00:14:39,640 --> 00:14:42,860 So just talk about what you think is driving the action in crypto lately. 190 00:14:42,960 --> 00:14:43,100 Sure. 191 00:14:43,240 --> 00:14:48,500 I've been trying to indicate that it doesn't matter nearly as much as I think the market wanted it to matter. 192 00:14:48,860 --> 00:14:49,820 It's something to point to. 193 00:14:49,900 --> 00:14:53,840 It's something to say Congress and the broader government are coming around to understanding our industry. 194

00:14:53,840 --> 00:14:59,140 But the last few times I was on, I said we can still pursue our industry without government intervention. 195 00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:03,900 And I think it's been interesting to see Bitcoin was resilient in the face of that last week. 196 00:15:03,900 --> 00:15:08,720 and then also kind of flipped and turned sort of market correlated this week 197 00:15:08,720 --> 00:15:11,500 where you had a billion dollars of inflows into the Bitcoin ETF yesterday. 198 00:15:11,700 --> 00:15:11,920 Yes. 199 00:15:11,980 --> 00:15:14,800 And so we see a resiliency and then a participation on the upside. 200 00:15:15,020 --> 00:15:16,160 So bad news is good news. 201 00:15:16,240 --> 00:15:17,040 Good news is good news. 202 00:15:17,120 --> 00:15:18,520 We're in a good place for my Bitcoin friends. 203 00:15:18,560 --> 00:15:19,260 And I have many of them. 204 00:15:19,460 --> 00:15:19,700 You know what? 205 00:15:19,700 --> 00:15:20,420 I think they just. 206 00:15:20,600 --> 00:15:21,920 OK, so she still doesn't get it. 207 00:15:21,920 --> 00:15:22,120 Right. 208 00:15:22,160 --> 00:15:23,180 And she'll continue on. 209 00:15:23,360 --> 00:15:28,780 Even after all these years of covering it, they still lump in Bitcoin with all the other 210 00:15:28,780 --> 00:15:29,120 crypto. 211 00:15:29,940 --> 00:15:33,040 You know, you buy a little bit of this for that bet and you buy a little bit of that 212 00:15:33,040 --> 00:15:33,860 for this bet. 213 00:15:33,900 --> 00:15:35,860 And, you know, if you want privacy, you buy some of that. 214 00:15:35,920 --> 00:15:38,620 And if you want tokenization, you buy some of that. 215 00:15:39,120 --> 00:15:42,360 But what they're missing is the maturing of the market. 216 00:15:42,960 --> 00:15:49,400 I mean, each digital asset that survives in this marketplace is going to have a particular market fit. 217 00:15:50,280 --> 00:15:52,760 And Bitcoin is finding its market fit. 218 00:15:52,920 --> 00:15:54,700 Chris Perkins was on the Schwab Network. 219 00:15:54,880 --> 00:15:55,380 He explained. 220 00:15:56,080 --> 00:16:00,540 Chris Perkins, head of Franklin Crypto, arm of Franklin Templeton, is joining me now. 221 00:16:00,540 --> 00:16:10,420 So when you see Bitcoin here above $85,000, moving to the highest level since January, what's the risk appetite about here? 222 00:16:10,560 --> 00:16:12,340 Why are folks jumping into Bitcoin? 223 00:16:13,260 --> 00:16:14,400 Nicole, great to see you. 224 00:16:14,620 --> 00:16:18,040 It certainly feels like we're entering the beginnings of a bull cycle. 225 00:16:18,640 --> 00:16:20,620 We saw ETF demand coming back. 226 00:16:20,700 --> 00:16:22,680 We saw about a billion dollars in inflows on Monday. 227 00:16:22,680 --> 00:16:32,960 And what we're seeing is that despite a number of stresses that may have hurt Bitcoin in years past, we had a hike in rates. 228 00:16:33,260 --> 00:16:34,580 The Clarity Act didn't pass. 229 00:16:34,700 --> 00:16:36,360 There's been other geopolitical stresses. 230 00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:39,780 But the asset continues to move nicely up. 231 00:16:40,340 --> 00:16:41,000 Why is that? 232 00:16:41,080 --> 00:16:42,260 I think the market is maturing. 233 00:16:42,600 --> 00:16:44,920 We're seeing institutions step in. 234 00:16:45,460 --> 00:16:46,480 Retail's coming back. 235 00:16:46,560 --> 00:16:47,900 They saw a little bit of price action. 236 00:16:48,020 --> 00:16:48,680 They like it. 237 00:16:48,680 --> 00:17:00,720 But you're seeing it depart, perhaps, from being a frontier risk asset and wrapping all of crypto in this, like, wrapper of frontier risk assets to assets that are being driven by fundamentals. 238 00:17:00,720 --> 00:17:04,640 Because as institutions come in, they're looking at fundamentals. 239 00:17:05,020 --> 00:17:10,600 They're seeing what's going on with the dollar and some of the action that Treasury Secretary Besant's taking. 240 00:17:11,240 --> 00:17:27,800 Its biggest feature is that there isn a nation driving it or a company You know a lot of times people say well why would I buy Bitcoin when I could just buy a stock Well because stock has counterparty risk You know the treasuries have sovereign risk and the market is hungry for an 241 00:17:27,800 --> 00:17:33,060 asset that doesn't. So that I think, and it's not me saying that, right? It's Chris Perkins over 242 00:17:33,060 --> 00:17:37,480 there on the Schwab network explaining it in the wonky way that they explain things. But I think 243 00:17:37,480 --> 00:17:41,420 he's right. I think we're seeing it's not completely, we're not there. It's not like we're on the other 244 00:17:41,420 --> 00:17:46,620 end of this. This is a multi-year journey, but we are seeing a gradient of understanding and 245 00:17:46,620 --> 00:17:59,060 market fit develop that wasn't there even just five weeks ago. I think another dynamic at play 246 00:17:59,060 --> 00:18:05,480 is the long timers cashed out that we're going to cash out. And now whoever still has their stash, 247 00:18:05,560 --> 00:18:09,820 they're hodling for a while again. Now, I think it's probable that we could see this thing go 248 00:18:09,820 --> 00:18:14,120 either way, just because it's a midterm year and that's still just a big variable. But either way, 249 00:18:14,140 --> 00:18:18,700 it's been very strong performance that would suggest that a bear market is over. I don't know. 250 00:18:19,000 --> 00:18:23,260 But if you consider you have this market fit happening at the institutional level, 251 00:18:23,340 --> 00:18:27,580 plus then you have the longtime whales, the ones that wanted to cash out, 252 00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:32,380 they kind of cashed out when it was around 100,000 or above. And some of those, some of those 253 00:18:32,380 --> 00:18:38,900 wallets, those very wallets that sold have been buying back since about July. So I think for a 254 00:18:38,900 --> 00:18:48,160 moment, if you look at

the four-year cycle, if you look at it, some say it started early. Maybe 255 00:18:48,160 --> 00:18:52,680 now some are going to say it ended early. I don't know. Here's what I do know. If this was a four-year 256 00:18:52,680 --> 00:18:59,580 cycle, it was a pretty mild one, and it ran a bit short. From November 2022 low to a July 2026 low 257 00:18:59,580 --> 00:19:07,900 is about 1,338 days. So versus 1,430 days before that, I think I was supposed to write November 258 00:19:07,900 --> 00:19:16,760 2025 in there. Sorry. Typo. November 2025 low to a July 2026 low was 1,338 days. Wow. Let me pull 259 00:19:16,760 --> 00:19:22,980 up the old dashboard here and take a look at this too. Yeah. And 300. Okay. Yeah. And we're 351 days 260 00:19:22,980 --> 00:19:30,920 since our all time high, $126,180, which was on October 6th, 2025. So a lot of people thought the 261 00:19:30,920 --> 00:19:36,900 four-year cycle would wrap up in October, but here we are. We're a little early. Usually the average 262 00:19:36,900 --> 00:19:44,340 four-year cycle down the bare part of the four-year cycle is longer than that. So if this was the 263 00:19:44,340 --> 00:19:48,100 four-year cycle, it was a short one, I guess is what I'm trying to ineloquently say. Because I 264 00:19:48,100 --> 00:19:53,300 think you'd have to go back to June, July. That was technically the low. We set the low in June 265 00:19:53,300 --> 00:19:59,820 or July. So the reality, I think, is if there is a four-year cycle, it is now clearly mostly human 266 00:19:59,820 --> 00:20:05,720 driven if we continue to rally. And I don't think that's that radical of an idea. I think it's 267 00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:10,840 exactly what you would expect. You think initially it'd be mechanical because of just supply 268 00:20:10,840 --> 00:20:16,200 constraints, but as the supply dynamics move to the market, the spot market ETFs and whatnot, 269 00:20:16,740 --> 00:20:21,720 you could see how it shifts from a mechanical mechanism to a human mechanism. And once it 270 00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:26,860 becomes human driven, that's when you start front running these kinds of things. You front run the 271 00:20:26,860 --> 00:20:31,300 top and you try to front run the bottom, which creates the reverse of each of those conditions. 272 00:20:31,300 --> 00:20:37,320 I don't okay I'll play this clip for you listen to this matter of fact nature of how this CEO 273 00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:41,780 he's Calamos I think is what it's called and this is a really interesting guy he's boring 274 00:20:41,780 --> 00:20:47,820 but he's interesting because he's like the profile of a traditional Wall Street investment firm 275 00:20:47,820 --> 00:20:54,240 CEO doesn't really have any skin in the game they didn't really pay a lot of attention to 276 00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:59,380 digital assets for a long time and then they just kind of quietly for a couple of years did a bunch 277 00:20:59,380 --> 00:21:04,300 of in-house research and

then decided they want to get in on Bitcoin and start doing some Bitcoin 278 00:21:04,300 --> 00:21:09,920 ETFs. I don't know about their ETFs, but I know they're managing about $50 billion in asset in 279 00:21:09,920 --> 00:21:16,020 their company per year and that they looked at this rationally and made a rational choice for 280 00:21:16,020 --> 00:21:19,920 based on their due diligence, based on what they thought their customers might want. 281 00:21:20,360 --> 00:21:23,600 And I just think it's interesting to listen to how he's telling his customers to allocate and 282 00:21:23,600 --> 00:21:29,020 almost casually matter of fact this old Wall Street cat is about all of this. 283 00:21:29,380 --> 00:21:33,860 Bitcoin trading around $86,000 this morning, breaking through, I think, what was kind of 284 00:21:33,860 --> 00:21:36,660 closely watched as a key technical level in trading this week. 285 00:21:37,340 --> 00:21:38,460 You are in that marketplace. 286 00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:39,780 You have products in the marketplace. 287 00:21:39,980 --> 00:21:40,440 Your thoughts? 288 00:21:41,140 --> 00:21:41,320 Sure. 289 00:21:41,320 --> 00:21:48,880 We last year developed an ETF, which is 100% principle protected for people that can't 290 00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:50,880 take the volatile swings in Bitcoin. 291 00:21:51,160 --> 00:21:56,720 So we feel that we also have a 90 and 80% protected type Bitcoin. 292 00:21:56,720 --> 00:22:06,540 So it has a similar volatility to money markets, to equities, to commodities, and you can put this in your portfolio. 293 00:22:07,340 --> 00:22:08,480 Bitcoin is here to stay. 294 00:22:08,740 --> 00:22:09,640 That's what we feel. 295 00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:10,700 That's what we believe. 296 00:22:11,280 --> 00:22:23,900 I think that just because the act didn't pass last week, I think the Clarity Act, I think the SEC the next day made some rulings where it's helped Bitcoin. 297 00:22:23,900 --> 00:22:26,220 And we've seen it gone up in price instead of down. 298 00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:28,840 I think the weak players are out of the market. 299 00:22:29,420 --> 00:22:36,720 And I think, you know, we're going to see a cycle in the next three months, even though it might take a little bit of a breather here, really go up. 300 00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:39,140 It trades in like four-year cycles. 301 00:22:39,820 --> 00:22:47,280 And in October should be the low of that four years where we start to see the rise again for the next four years. 302 00:22:47,420 --> 00:22:55,440 So I think that Bitcoin is definitely an allocation that most portfolios are starting to have, even the big sovereign wealth funds. 303 00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:57,320 It's not are you in Bitcoin? 304 00:22:57,680 --> 00:22:59,000 It's how much are you allocated? 305 00:22:59,400 --> 00:23:07,920 And if we had this conversation a year ago with the biggest banks in the world, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and all that, they did not want to participate. 306 00:23:08,200 --> 00:23:11,180 And now they're in and they're participating. 307 00:23:11,380 --> 00:23:13,260 They're lending against it and everything else. 308 00:23:13,360 --> 00:23:14,400 So it's here. 309 00:23:14,500 --> 00:23:15,260 It's here to stay. 310 00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:17,160 It's a long term hold. 311 00:23:17,900 --> 00:23:21,180 Don't watch it every day because you're not going to be happy. 312 00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:23,340 But we feel it's a great investment. 313 00:23:23,340 --> 00:23:30,720 So what strikes me there is just how confidently he speaks of the four-year cycle. 314 00:23:31,360 --> 00:23:34,360 There's no debate about it or what its nature is. 315 00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:35,160 It is a thing. 316 00:23:35,360 --> 00:23:39,880 And so if people in the market are just so certain it's a thing, well, then they're going 317 00:23:39,880 --> 00:23:40,800 to trade against it, right? 318 00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:46,040 And so if that is true, then they would want to get ahead of the bottom, right? 319 00:23:46,100 --> 00:23:49,560 Isn't that what everybody, anybody that's, I shouldn't say dumb enough because you probably 320 00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:49,940 are smart. 321 00:23:49,940 --> 00:23:51,080 You probably have more Bitcoin than me. 322 00:23:51,080 --> 00:23:54,080 But anybody that trades Bitcoin is trying to time it. 323 00:23:54,780 --> 00:23:56,500 And that is the real key thing. 324 00:23:56,620 --> 00:24:03,660 And so the portion of the market base that is doing that is trying to figure out if now is their time to get back in. 325 00:24:03,940 --> 00:24:05,700 They're buying on the ETFs. 326 00:24:06,020 --> 00:24:07,100 They're taking leverage. 327 00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:09,600 People that took leverage against it are getting washed. 328 00:24:09,900 --> 00:24:12,960 It's actually pretty fun to watch. 329 00:24:13,300 --> 00:24:14,440 I do enjoy a good rip. 330 00:24:15,900 --> 00:24:16,520 All right. 331 00:24:16,540 --> 00:24:17,500 So here's my question. 332 00:24:17,620 --> 00:24:18,760 You know what it is, don't you? 333 00:24:18,820 --> 00:24:19,820 You know what I'm going to ask. 334 00:24:19,820 --> 00:24:21,380 where do we go from here? 335 00:24:21,500 --> 00:24:23,820 Boost in and tell me where we go from here. 336 00:24:23,860 --> 00:24:26,520 And I do want you to boost in and let me know up or down, 337 00:24:27,120 --> 00:24:28,840 you know, I'd say over the next 30 days. 338 00:24:28,960 --> 00:24:30,560 You don't have to say the next, just the next 30 days. 339 00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:32,240 And I do need you to boost in. 340 00:24:32,460 --> 00:24:35,680 Boosts are down 27% over the last 30 days. 341 00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:37,160 And the trend is not my friend. 342 00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:38,760 When I zoom out beyond 30 days, 343 00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:43,160 really support peaked this year with the cold card breach. 344 00:24:43,320 --> 00:24:45,140 And then we have just been in a decline 345

00:24:45,140 --> 00:24:46,740 every episode since then. 346 00:24:47,420 --> 00:24:49,900 Thank you, everyone who has been boosting during that time. 347 00:24:50,300 --> 00:24:51,940 Seriously, MVPs and the members. 348 00:24:52,500 --> 00:24:54,620 Seriously, you guys are really the MVPs. 349 00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:55,200 Do I have here? 350 00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:56,100 I need to give you something. 351 00:24:56,360 --> 00:24:57,220 I got to give you something. 352 00:24:57,760 --> 00:24:58,280 Let me give you. 353 00:24:58,360 --> 00:24:58,660 How about. 354 00:25:00,100 --> 00:25:00,620 There you go. 355 00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:01,040 That's for you. 356 00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:03,160 I don't know if you like that, but that was for you. 357 00:25:03,420 --> 00:25:04,520 Really, thank you very much. 358 00:25:05,220 --> 00:25:10,620 But the uncomfortable truth is, is nearly 30 percent is just not going to do it. 359 00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:15,080 I don't have a lot of buffer with the show because it's such a major time cost every week for me. 360 00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:23,560 And if I took just a couple of weeks off of Twib, I think I could probably launch an entirely new JB show and get it off the ground in that time. 361 00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:27,040 And then if that show did better, that's where I'd have to focus my time, no doubt. 362 00:25:27,120 --> 00:25:28,680 But, you know, depending on where it went, we'd see. 363 00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:30,940 It's just something I have to consider. 364 00:25:31,060 --> 00:25:31,580 I hate it. 365 00:25:32,020 --> 00:25:33,440 Things are just really tight. 366 00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:35,880 And the margin for error is really, really. 367 00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:36,400 There isn't one. 368 00:25:37,060 --> 00:25:39,040 I was going to say it's really small, but there is no margin for error. 369 00:25:39,500 --> 00:25:41,760 So next episode, I think, is the last episode of the month. 370 00:25:41,760 --> 00:26:05,220 And if the trend continues and we hit 30 down by the end of the month I think I announce a short hiatus I not exactly sure when I announce a short hiatus and then I going to apply my time to some other projects It not a forever thing Ironically it may be just as Bitcoin is turning around which is kind of what I feared about the value for value model Could be a fatal flaw I think I don know But with 371 00:26:05,220 --> 00:26:13,100 a news-focused show, something I've always worried about is sort of the ebbs and flow of when 372 00:26:13,100 --> 00:26:17,140 something big is happening, people support the show. But then on the week-to-week events, 373 00:26:17,140 --> 00:26:20,040 like the last five weeks that got us to this point, 374 00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:22,220 people just don't find that as valuable 375 00:26:22,220 --> 00:26:24,220 and they don't support it as much. 376 00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:25,860 And then something major happens 377 00:26:25,860 --> 00:26:26,900 and the show gets some support. 378 00:26:27,380 --> 00:26:29,340 But it's the in-between weeks 379 00:26:29,340 --> 00:26:31,600 where the show kind of starves. 380 00:26:32,140 --> 00:26:33,640 I don't know what to do about that 381 00:26:33,640 --> 00:26:35,220 because I'm worried it may just be 382 00:26:35,220 --> 00:26:37,640 a fundamental issue with the format. 383 00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:39,680 But so thank you again to everybody 384 00:26:39,680 --> 00:26:41,160 who has been contributing during that time. 385 00:26:41,220 --> 00:26:41,840 You've kept me going. 386 00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:43,900 Even in the weeks I was sick and feeling like crap, 387 00:26:44,480 --> 00:26:45,460 you kept me focused. 388 00:26:45,580 --> 00:26:47,020 You kept me focused on the signal. 389 00:26:47,140 --> 00:26:49,100 and trying to do the best job I possibly could for you. 390 00:26:49,440 --> 00:26:50,180 So thank you, everybody. 391 00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:51,620 And do consider supporting the show, 392 00:26:51,780 --> 00:26:53,840 boost.jupiterbroadcasting.com 393 00:26:53,840 --> 00:26:56,780 or becoming a member at jupiter.party 394 00:26:56,780 --> 00:26:57,960 or in Fountain. 395 00:26:58,280 --> 00:26:59,100 That would be great, too. 396 00:27:17,140 --> 00:27:21,360 I want to mention you can also support the show just by doing what you want to do. 397 00:27:21,420 --> 00:27:24,700 If you want to buy sats on River, sign up with my link in the show notes. 398 00:27:24,920 --> 00:27:27,660 Also, the Bitcoin Well, automatic self-custody platform. 399 00:27:27,800 --> 00:27:28,500 They don't host the wallet. 400 00:27:28,700 --> 00:27:29,240 You do. 401 00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:30,000 It's pretty great. 402 00:27:30,340 --> 00:27:31,700 Super support for Lightning, too. 403 00:27:32,200 --> 00:27:35,380 Speaking of Lightning, you want to go from sats to gift card in seconds? 404 00:27:35,500 --> 00:27:36,940 Check out The Bitcoin Company. 405 00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:38,180 Link in the notes. 406 00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:39,760 You can log in with your Lightning. 407 00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:41,160 The only thing they deal with is Bitcoin. 408 00:27:41,720 --> 00:27:42,620 So many gift cards. 409 00:27:42,660 --> 00:27:43,300 It'd blow your mind. 410 00:27:43,360 --> 00:27:44,060 It's really handy. 411 00:27:44,560 --> 00:27:48,620 Now, Foldcard lets you stack sats while you're paying your daily bills, doing that kind of stuff. 412 00:27:48,660 --> 00:27:51,260 They got a new Visa card that stacks sats as well. 413 00:27:51,700 --> 00:27:53,140 A little bit back on every purchase. 414 00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:58,640 Salt Lending and Strike are both great platforms to get access to your Bitcoin liquidity without selling it. 415 00:27:59,020 --> 00:28:01,760 Strike also lets you stack sats and all kinds of Bitcoin services. 416 00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:03,700 I have links to those in the show notes. 417 00:28:03,700 --> 00:28:08,460 If you're creating an account, no official relationship

services I have or do use. 418 00:28:08,660 --> 00:28:09,280 And I like them. 419 00:28:09,880 --> 00:28:12,620 And you can support the show by doing what you do. 420 00:28:14,060 --> 00:28:25,620 We do have some boosts. 421 00:28:25,660 --> 00:28:27,880 Four score and seven boosts to go. 422 00:28:28,360 --> 00:28:33,140 Our top booster this week is J-Cube, who came in with 60,000 sats. 423 00:28:33,260 --> 00:28:34,620 Hey, rich lobster! 424 00:28:36,740 --> 00:28:38,920 J-Cube, that makes you our sap, Bala. 425 00:28:39,060 --> 00:28:39,820 Thank you very much. 426 00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:40,820 Great coverage, Chris. 427 00:28:40,820 --> 00:28:43,380 Listening to Twib is not only informative, but it's dang enjoyable. 428 00:28:43,540 --> 00:28:44,000 Keep it up. 429 00:28:44,060 --> 00:28:45,040 Thank you, J-Cube. 430 00:28:45,940 --> 00:28:49,740 A lot of times I really, not, I don't know how to put it, but I agree. 431 00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:51,200 I enjoy doing the show quite a bit. 432 00:28:51,780 --> 00:28:52,660 I wish I could, you know what? 433 00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:56,120 Oh my gosh, I wish I could only do the show and then go to Bitcoin events and travel around 434 00:28:56,120 --> 00:28:56,680 and do meetups. 435 00:28:57,900 --> 00:28:59,080 I just think, all right. 436 00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:00,520 Boy, I wish I could. 437 00:29:01,300 --> 00:29:05,420 If I had like, you know, if I already had a million sats or a million Bitcoin or something, 438 00:29:05,480 --> 00:29:08,480 if I just had a huge stash, you know, screw it, I'd go for it. 439 00:29:08,560 --> 00:29:09,320 I'd go for it. 440 00:29:09,780 --> 00:29:11,040 I'd come buy you a beer, J-Cube. 441 00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:12,260 Thank you very much. 442 00:29:12,260 --> 00:29:14,880 Sats McGee comes in with a row of McDucks. 443 00:29:14,960 --> 00:29:17,120 That's 22,222 Sats. 444 00:29:17,220 --> 00:29:18,880 This old duck still got it. 445 00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:21,460 Fantastic essay at the end of episode one, two, three. 446 00:29:21,560 --> 00:29:22,000 Thank you, Sats. 447 00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:23,160 I wanted to wrap it all up. 448 00:29:23,300 --> 00:29:24,320 I appreciate that feedback. 449 00:29:25,220 --> 00:29:27,040 I was trying to put a button on it, if you will. 450 00:29:27,300 --> 00:29:28,640 And I appreciate that value too. 451 00:29:29,400 --> 00:29:32,780 Read BTCs here with 3,400 Satoshis. 452 00:29:33,420 --> 00:29:34,420 Turn Ferguson. 453 00:29:35,360 --> 00:29:37,280 That's when I hit the random button. 454 00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:38,160 Here's another one for you. 455 00:29:38,680 --> 00:29:39,740 Hey, I like that one. 456 00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:41,200 3,400 Sats. 457 00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:43,060 to say great episode with a beer. 458 00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:44,260 Thank you very much. 459 00:29:44,400 --> 00:29:46,120 This is a tasty burger. 460 00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:47,020 Appreciate you. 461 00:29:47,760 --> 00:29:49,480 Moon Knight's back with 2000 sats. 462 00:29:49,720 --> 00:29:50,940 Linux or something. 463 00:29:51,400 --> 00:29:53,420 Worst possible timing for the rates to go up. 464 00:29:53,480 --> 00:29:55,360 Me and my partner are actively in the process 465 00:29:55,360 --> 00:29:56,320 of trying to buy our condo. 466 00:29:56,760 --> 00:29:59,060 Saw the projected monthly payments crank right up overnight. 467 00:29:59,840 --> 00:30:00,580 Oh, man. 468 00:30:00,580 --> 00:30:04,040 I remember before the 2008 financial crisis, 469 00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:05,540 I was having such a hell of a time 470 00:30:05,540 --> 00:30:08,160 getting the house financed. 471 00:30:08,260 --> 00:30:09,120 It was wild. 472 00:30:09,660 --> 00:30:11,180 I know what that's a bit like. 473 00:30:11,260 --> 00:30:11,940 I'm sorry to hear that. 474 00:30:12,140 --> 00:30:14,780 Hopefully, hopefully in a few years, 475 00:30:14,880 --> 00:30:16,280 things turn around or a couple of years, 476 00:30:16,320 --> 00:30:17,320 you know, things take quite a while 477 00:30:17,320 --> 00:30:18,600 on the Fed scale, timescale, 478 00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:20,880 but, you know, you can refinance or something. 479 00:30:21,640 --> 00:30:22,820 Then buy some Bitcoin, right? 480 00:30:23,220 --> 00:30:24,720 Ah, yeah, buddy. 481 00:30:25,280 --> 00:30:25,960 Thank you, Moon. 482 00:30:26,300 --> 00:30:27,140 Appreciate the value. 483 00:30:28,140 --> 00:30:30,660 User 54.5 is here with 4,000 sats. 484 00:30:30,660 --> 00:30:32,560 Put some macaroni and cheese on there too. 485 00:30:32,720 --> 00:30:34,000 No message, just value. 486 00:30:34,120 --> 00:30:34,960 Thank you very much. 487 00:30:35,860 --> 00:30:39,000 Debitcoiners.eu is here with 10,000 satoshis. 488 00:30:39,140 --> 00:30:39,600 Woo-hoo! 489 00:30:39,940 --> 00:30:42,060 Ten gold blooms out of a possible ten gold blooms. 490 00:30:42,200 --> 00:30:43,040 Keep up the good work. 491 00:30:43,100 --> 00:30:44,040 Well, thank you, Debitcoin. 492 00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:45,260 Appreciate you. 493 00:30:45,740 --> 00:30:47,740 Orange Mart's here with 5,000 Satoshis. 494 00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:49,720 Why you got to put numbers and letters together? 495 00:30:49,980 --> 00:30:51,320 Why can't you just go f*** yourself? 496 00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:53,880 The random button is spicy today. 497 00:30:54,340 --> 00:30:56,840 Orange Mart has no message of value. 498 00:30:57,180 --> 00:30:58,940 I should switch to manual, perhaps. 499 00:30:59,420 --> 00:31:01,380 I don't know if I like some of these. 500 00:31:01,420 --> 00:31:02,040 You know what I mean? 501 00:31:02,460 --> 00:31:03,180 I don't know. 502 00:31:03,180 --> 00:31:04,260 Ha ha ha. 503 00:31:04,740 --> 00:31:06,120 Ha ha ha. 504 00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:07,280 Ha ha ha. 505 00:31:08,280 --> 00:31:11,320 Chew Toys here with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 sats. 506 00:31:11,420 --> 00:31:11,700 Yes. 507 00:31:11,860 --> 00:31:12,440 That's amazing. 508 00:31:12,560 --> 00:31:14,180 I've got the same combination

on my luggage. 509 00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:16,140 He says, long live Twib. 510 00:31:16,220 --> 00:31:17,320 Thank you very much. 511 00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:18,140 Appreciate you. 512 00:31:18,420 --> 00:31:19,460 Smoke if you got them. 513 00:31:19,700 --> 00:31:22,820 Gene Bean's here with a row of ducks, 2,222 sats. 514 00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:25,280 And Gene says, boost. 515 00:31:25,460 --> 00:31:26,280 You got it, Gene. 516 00:31:26,420 --> 00:31:26,980 Thanks, Gene. 517 00:31:27,100 --> 00:31:27,900 Appreciate the value. 518 00:31:28,060 --> 00:31:29,640 Ace Ackerman's here with a row of ducks. 519 00:31:30,360 --> 00:31:31,820 The Clarity Act will return. 520 00:31:31,820 --> 00:31:36,240 Similarly, how Trump promoted the COVID vaccine, but everyone said it was too dangerous until Biden took office. 521 00:31:36,960 --> 00:31:47,460 I think you're right in the sense that I saw a letter come out from a couple of different Democrat Congress critters that said they are committing to continuing the process in the next session. 522 00:31:48,260 --> 00:31:55,120 But it may be what. Oh, right. Oh, one of the senators was Liz, Liz Warren. 523 00:31:55,340 --> 00:31:58,200 She wants to be the one that leads it in the next session. 524 00:31:58,200 --> 00:31:58,880 And she wants to do so. 525 00:31:58,960 --> 00:31:59,640 Can you only imagine? 526 00:31:59,740 --> 00:32:01,520 Because her version, which we saw a version of. 527 00:32:01,740 --> 00:32:06,600 Oh, I think they I think she even I think there was even talk about going after self-custody. 528 00:32:06,740 --> 00:32:07,740 Bitcoin self-custody. 529 00:32:07,800 --> 00:32:08,280 Remember that? 530 00:32:08,580 --> 00:32:09,040 You remember that? 531 00:32:09,680 --> 00:32:10,340 I think I remember that. 532 00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:11,980 I think I remembered that. 533 00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:13,100 Thanks, Ace. 534 00:32:13,460 --> 00:32:14,020 Appreciate you. 535 00:32:15,460 --> 00:32:17,780 Is here with 10,000 sats. 536 00:32:17,940 --> 00:32:19,640 It's over 9000. 537 00:32:20,440 --> 00:32:21,380 Doesn't matter what's in the queue. 538 00:32:21,380 --> 00:32:24,720 When a new twib drops, I drop everything else and go straight to you. 539 00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:25,880 Keep up the strong signal. 540 00:32:25,980 --> 00:32:26,580 Always appreciated. 541 00:32:26,780 --> 00:32:27,180 Wow. 542 00:32:27,780 --> 00:32:29,300 Well, thank you very much. 543 00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:29,940 Oh, I'm in. 544 00:32:30,320 --> 00:32:31,920 That's really, I really appreciate that. 545 00:32:32,000 --> 00:32:34,300 That, see, now I can't stop doing the show, right? 546 00:32:34,420 --> 00:32:34,920 There you go. 547 00:32:35,500 --> 00:32:36,080 I can't stop. 548 00:32:36,220 --> 00:32:37,720 I hate building PCs. 549 00:32:37,980 --> 00:32:38,800 Brent, nobody asked you. 550 00:32:39,480 --> 00:32:40,980 Seattle BitDev, Seattle, eh? 551 00:32:41,060 --> 00:32:43,280 Is here with 9,600 sats. 552 00:32:47,460

--> 00:32:48,240 Love the show. 553 00:32:48,340 --> 00:32:49,300 Well, thank you, Seattle. 554 00:32:49,420 --> 00:32:49,880 Make it show. 555 00:32:50,180 --> 00:32:52,520 We should, you know, we should have a Seattle meetup, right? 556 00:32:52,520 --> 00:32:53,500 Bring Wes down. 557 00:32:54,260 --> 00:32:56,260 Pacific Northwest meetup. 558 00:32:56,260 --> 00:33:06,820 up talk about bitcoin thank you appreciate you user 26 is here with 2345 sats alex rod says 559 00:33:06,820 --> 00:33:11,940 psyduck psyduck well okay i don't know what you're talking about but you get a duck this old duck 560 00:33:11,940 --> 00:33:20,020 still got it skak is here with 2323 sats i hate building pcs frank get out of here he's a good 561 00:33:20,020 --> 00:33:24,100 guy that's true he's a real good guy no he's a great guy that's that's true let's hear it good 562 00:33:24,100 --> 00:33:24,600 All right. 563 00:33:24,640 --> 00:33:26,500 He says, great take on the Doomer AI rhetoric. 564 00:33:27,040 --> 00:33:37,820 You can almost hear the bubble burst and the printer go burr to bail out these frontier AI companies as they backpedal their stance under the mass premise of altruistic AI slowdown to save humanity. 565 00:33:38,180 --> 00:33:43,360 They clearly are covering for their realization that they are not the gatekeepers they thought they were. 566 00:33:43,980 --> 00:33:48,340 And they're getting eaten alive with training costs while the Chinese models are just blasting. 567 00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:49,120 Right? 568 00:33:49,380 --> 00:33:50,280 I think you got it, SK. 569 00:33:50,420 --> 00:33:51,460 Thank you very much. 570 00:33:51,780 --> 00:33:52,400 Like that one. 571 00:33:52,400 --> 00:33:59,320 nakamoto is here with 5 000 sets live long and prosper this is appreciate the value i appreciate 572 00:33:59,320 --> 00:34:05,660 the value thank you very much superior ability breeds superior ambition all right and that's 573 00:34:05,660 --> 00:34:10,840 all our sats above 2000 and of course don't forget if you're a jupiter party member you get a free 574 00:34:10,840 --> 00:34:16,580 member boost when we bring it all together we had 24 of you stream sats and actually got close to 575 00:34:16,580 --> 00:34:17,420 our baller boost. 576 00:34:17,580 --> 00:34:18,000 Collectively, 577 00:34:18,080 --> 00:34:18,780 you sat streamers 578 00:34:18,780 --> 00:34:22,820 stacked 57,475 satoshis. 579 00:34:22,940 --> 00:34:24,720 You're doing very well. 580 00:34:24,780 --> 00:34:25,140 Thank you. 581 00:34:25,480 --> 00:34:26,400 When you bring it all together, 582 00:34:26,480 --> 00:34:26,660 it's really, 583 00:34:26,720 --> 00:34:26,880 I mean, 584 00:34:26,900 --> 00:34:27,740 it's not bad, right? 585 00:34:27,760 --> 00:34:28,900 It's just not quite 586 00:34:28,900 --> 00:34:29,540 where it needs to be 587 00:34:29,540 --> 00:34:30,280 to be sustainable. 588 00:34:30,800 --> 00:34:31,700 Our total this week 589 00:34:31,700 --> 00:34:34,220 was 213,053. 590 00:34:34,253 --> 00:34:39,773 Satoshis. It's, again, it's like if this, it's really not a bad amount if it hadn't been on the 591 00:34:39,773 --> 00:34:43,313 downward trend continuously, right? If this was just sort of a slow week, but it's been slow weeks 592 00:34:43,313 --> 00:34:47,973 for a bit. So I do very much appreciate that. I don't want to seem like I don't appreciate that. 593 00:34:48,693 --> 00:34:52,773 Just sort of reflecting on where we go from here, but thank you very much. I know every single one 594 00:34:52,773 --> 00:34:57,953 of you who did participate, you are the star, right? Tens of thousands of people will download 595 00:34:57,953 --> 00:35:04,193 this episode and 38 of you participated in this process, in the boost process, plus the members 596 00:35:04,193 --> 00:35:04,693 Thank you, members. 597 00:35:05,033 --> 00:35:06,453 And that just really means a lot to me. 598 00:35:06,513 --> 00:35:07,513 So thank you very much. 599 00:35:07,753 --> 00:35:08,493 Appreciate you. 600 00:35:08,813 --> 00:35:11,113 And now with that, we should continue on with the show. 601 00:35:11,213 --> 00:35:15,613 I just will mention boost.jupiterbroadcasting.com if you would like to send a message. 602 00:35:26,413 --> 00:35:30,013 Okay, this first one, it's a bit odd. 603 00:35:30,013 --> 00:35:37,113 Pete Hegseth, the U.S. Secretary of War, was at a hearing on Capitol Hill about the Iran war. 604 00:35:37,793 --> 00:35:44,173 And the topic of running Bitcoin nodes and Bitcoin and cryptocurrency in warfare came up. 605 00:35:44,833 --> 00:35:48,213 I don't know. It's kind of a notable moment, I suppose. 606 00:35:48,393 --> 00:35:54,493 Over the past decade, Bitcoin has evolved from a fringe asset into a matter of national security. 607 00:35:54,973 --> 00:35:58,893 Iran has demanded Bitcoin as a toll for transit through the Strait of Hormuz. 608 00:35:58,893 --> 00:36:04,733 This is Representative Lance Gooden. He is a Republican from Texas 5th District. 609 00:36:05,013 --> 00:36:13,233 Korean cyber actors have leveraged it in ransomware campaigns, and China is believed to be stockpiling substantial holdings as part of a strategic reserve. 610 00:36:13,793 --> 00:36:19,573 Just last week, EndoPaycom Commander Admiral Paparo stated that Bitcoin has direct implications for power projection, 611 00:36:19,953 --> 00:36:24,933 and he noted that EndoPaycom is operating a node on the Bitcoin network in furtherance of that mission. 612 00:36:25,293 --> 00:36:25,773 Secretary. 613 00:36:26,613 --> 00:36:27,533 Oh, whoa. 614 00:36:28,033 --> 00:36:34,133 Now, I had heard rumors before, but according to Representative Gooden here from Texas's 615 00:36:34,133 --> 00:36:39,713 powerful 5th District, we are confirming that we're running a Bitcoin node, the military. 616 00:36:40,053 --> 00:36:41,613 What does that node look like? 617 00:36:41,853 --> 00:36:45,013 Something tells me it's probably a bit more powerful than a Raspberry

Pi. 618 00:36:45,413 --> 00:36:47,453 Something tells me it might be more than one. 619 00:36:47,713 --> 00:36:50,593 Being a node on the Bitcoin network in furtherance of that mission. 620 00:36:50,993 --> 00:36:51,473 Secretary. 621 00:36:51,853 --> 00:36:52,693 I'm going to go back even further. 622 00:36:52,693 --> 00:36:55,533 Bitcoin has direct implications for power projection. 623 00:36:55,713 --> 00:36:59,513 And he noted that EndoPaycom is operating a node on the Bitcoin network. 624 00:37:00,573 --> 00:37:01,133 EndoPaycom. 625 00:37:01,233 --> 00:37:05,093 Anybody out there have any kind of military lingo translator for me? 626 00:37:06,213 --> 00:37:06,773 EndoPaycom. 627 00:37:07,733 --> 00:37:08,773 Endopacific pay. 628 00:37:09,213 --> 00:37:15,153 So like Endopacific, probably some sort of financial arm in the Endopacific area. 629 00:37:15,253 --> 00:37:15,813 I mean, I don't know. 630 00:37:16,293 --> 00:37:21,713 But it sounds like a particular department of the military is running these Bitcoin nodes. 631 00:37:21,713 --> 00:37:33,253 Just last week, Indopaycom Commander Admiral Paparo stated that Bitcoin has direct implications for power projection, and he noted that Indopaycom is operating a node on the Bitcoin network in furtherance of that mission. 632 00:37:33,553 --> 00:37:46,373 Secretary, do you share the opinion that Bitcoin is a tool to project power, and are there any department-wide initiatives to ensure the U.S. secures a strategic advantage in Bitcoin and combats China's digital authoritarianism? 633 00:37:47,213 --> 00:37:49,493 I guess my short answer would be yes and yes. 634 00:37:49,493 --> 00:37:54,693 long and enthusiast of Bitcoin and crypto potential. And a lot of the things we're doing, 635 00:37:54,813 --> 00:37:59,593 enabling it or defeating it is our classified efforts that are ongoing inside our department, 636 00:37:59,593 --> 00:38:03,553 which I do provide do provide us a lot of leverage in a lot of different scenarios. 637 00:38:03,813 --> 00:38:05,633 I appreciate that. And I share your views. 638 00:38:05,953 --> 00:38:10,793 Okay, that's not a great answer. Except it wouldn't surprise me to say the things that 639 00:38:10,793 --> 00:38:14,793 we're doing to defeat it are classified, right? Because that's probably like partnering with 640 00:38:14,793 --> 00:38:20,133 chain analysis and trying to figure out how to get somebody's ETH wallet or their stablecoins. 641 00:38:20,273 --> 00:38:26,753 Like that part doesn't surprise me at all. But then he also said to protect it. What the hell 642 00:38:26,753 --> 00:38:32,853 does that mean? I don't know if I like that. I almost prefer that they're doing the other thing. 643 00:38:33,313 --> 00:38:38,033 I don't know. It's just the entire line of questioning seems notable to me. So I wanted 644 00:38:38,033 --> 00:38:42,873 you to know about it. All right. Here's another thing you should know about. This week, East Texas 645 00:38:42,873 --> 00:38:49,893 A&M University students announced that they have built the first quantum proof security solution for the Bitcoin lightning network. 646 00:38:50,553 --> 00:39:00,650 Yes all aspects of the network need to be quantum safe including the base chain and the lightning Network So the two would have to work together on this And here what we know so far 647 00:39:01,110 --> 00:39:12,830 The technology is called the PQLN layers, and it's a lattice-based algorithm, which is ML-DSA and ML-KEM, which sit on top of existing cryptography without replacing it. 648 00:39:12,830 --> 00:39:21,330 The full code base is nearly 11,000 lines, which were added to the Rust-Lightning fork, and it is live on GitHub for the public to review. 649 00:39:21,970 --> 00:39:29,430 Upgraded nodes stayed interoperable with legacy nodes across 12 mixed node test scenarios with zero stuck payments. 650 00:39:29,870 --> 00:39:40,650 The details I'll link in the show notes, but the other thing that's probably at least worth mentioning is PQLN's benchmark suggests the extra security does come with a heavy price for individual transactions. 651 00:39:40,650 --> 00:39:49,510 the added cryptographic operations clock in at 0.33 milliseconds more per operation a delay that's 652 00:39:49,510 --> 00:39:52,790 unlikely to be noticed by anyone sending and receiving the payment but it is there the bandwidth 653 00:39:52,790 --> 00:39:58,070 tells a more complicated story gossip downloads on the lightning network balloon by roughly 10x 654 00:39:58,070 --> 00:40:04,570 under pqln's default ml dsa settings the cause is larger post-quantum signatures that need more data 655 00:40:04,570 --> 00:40:09,530 to move across the network a theme we see often the researchers those also test an alternative 656 00:40:09,530 --> 00:40:15,390 signature scheme called Falcon, which compresses the overhead down to about 4x. 657 00:40:15,850 --> 00:40:21,990 So we go from 10x to 4x. Still a meaningful increase, they note, but far more manageable 658 00:40:21,990 --> 00:40:26,210 for nodes with limited bandwidth. This is good to see. Not that we're really going to see this 659 00:40:26,210 --> 00:40:32,310 roll out, right? But we now are seeing active solutions for quantum on-chain that don't require 660 00:40:32,310 --> 00:40:37,330 a hard fork. And we're seeing solutions for quantum on lightning that are still interoperable 661 00:40:37,330 --> 00:40:38,290 with the older nodes. 662 00:40:38,690 --> 00:40:40,390 In both cases, they take more data. 663 00:40:40,950 --> 00:40:43,030 But honestly, I'm of the opinion 664 00:40:43,030 --> 00:40:44,510 by the time we're at a point 665 00:40:44,510 --> 00:40:46,330 where quantum computers are going to be a threat, 666 00:40:46,710 --> 00:40:49,130 we'll probably just have more base storage, 667 00:40:49,250 --> 00:40:49,910 more base bandwidth, 668 00:40:50,030 --> 00:40:51,810 because this is not a five-year thing. 669 00:40:51,870 --> 00:40:53,550 This is

a 5, 10, 20-year thing. 670 00:40:54,050 --> 00:40:55,130 So I think it's good that we're here. 671 00:40:55,210 --> 00:40:56,190 It's good that we're here already 672 00:40:56,190 --> 00:40:57,530 and that we have proof. 673 00:40:57,750 --> 00:40:59,250 And this week they demonstrated it. 674 00:40:59,430 --> 00:41:00,370 That I like to see. 675 00:41:01,190 --> 00:41:02,790 Okay, something I want to call out specifically, 676 00:41:02,790 --> 00:41:03,909 it was probably pretty obvious, 677 00:41:04,050 --> 00:41:04,750 but I want to make sure 678 00:41:04,750 --> 00:41:06,610 we're just really upfront about it. 679 00:41:06,610 --> 00:41:14,330 A lot of Bitcoin's recent price action in the last week has been driven by ETF purchases, the Bitcoin ETFs. 680 00:41:14,330 --> 00:41:23,630 I want to mention this because watching the Bitcoin ETF flows will tell you a lot about where the spot price momentum is at, where things are going. 681 00:41:24,350 --> 00:41:31,230 Bitcoin magazines has a TV stream now, and they had Bloomberg senior research analyst and an ETF guy on there to explain. 682 00:41:31,490 --> 00:41:36,170 After conviction, we welcome our next guest to the show, James Safer, senior ETF analyst. 683 00:41:36,170 --> 00:41:39,670 at Bloomberg. Hey, James. Hey, guys. Thanks for having me. 684 00:41:40,130 --> 00:41:44,250 Yes, thank you. So we just laid out the numbers there. U.S. bought Bitcoin ETFs, 685 00:41:44,250 --> 00:41:48,930 seeing nearly $1 billion of net inflows in a single day on Monday. What does that level 686 00:41:48,930 --> 00:41:51,730 of demand tell you about where we are in the Bitcoin market right now? 687 00:41:52,450 --> 00:41:56,330 Yeah, things have definitely turned a quarter, and it's not just that one day. If you go back 688 00:41:56,330 --> 00:42:02,270 two days prior, I'll just read them out to you. We're looking at $160, $433, $999, so just shy of 689 00:42:02,270 --> 00:42:07,409 that 1 billion number. And then yesterday was 715. So you go back, you know, just three months ago, 690 00:42:07,409 --> 00:42:11,610 and those numbers were inverse, we were seeing those types of outflows. So this is just kind of 691 00:42:11,610 --> 00:42:16,029 when I look back at like any sort of ETF category, whether it's a digital asset like Bitcoin, or, 692 00:42:16,029 --> 00:42:22,950 you know, some other individual ETF category, like the what you tend to see is things what you want 693 00:42:22,950 --> 00:42:26,610 to see is, you know, that line of assets and flows going up into the right, but you're going to see 694 00:42:26,610 --> 00:42:29,710 pullbacks, like there are times where people are going to take profits, they're going to do those 695 00:42:29,710 --> 00:42:33,930 types of things. And this is just healthy. So right now, we've come out of a pretty bad, 696 00:42:34,050 --> 00:42:38,090 tough area in June and July, where we're seeing tons of outflows. And this is coming back, 697 00:42:38,110 --> 00:42:43,210

and it's coming back in a big way. Now, I'd love your confirmation here. The data I'm looking at 698 00:42:43,210 --> 00:42:48,490 suggests that the average holder's cost basis of these ETFs is around an $82,000 Bitcoin. 699 00:42:49,409 --> 00:42:54,310 And now we're rallying sharply up above that breakeven point, where these investors are 700 00:42:54,310 --> 00:42:58,490 largely in the green, you know, how important is that level to ETF holders? 701 00:42:58,770 --> 00:43:03,590 And, you know, does the fact that, you know, the average ETF investor is now back in profit 702 00:43:03,590 --> 00:43:07,690 tell you anything about the behavior we've seen over the past couple of days or the psychology 703 00:43:07,690 --> 00:43:08,690 behind these investors? 704 00:43:09,130 --> 00:43:23,466 Because really what he asking here if it not totally clear is now that the average ETF holder is back in the green there there probably going to be some selling this is the market works these idiots always sell as soon as they get back in the 705 00:43:23,466 --> 00:43:29,006 green i'd just hold it if you if you just all hold it it'll go up even more but anyways so they do 706 00:43:29,006 --> 00:43:34,126 they sell it not everybody but there is always some profit taking once they get back into the 707 00:43:34,126 --> 00:43:39,846 green and so i think that's sort of what he's asking there yeah so i mean i could i could answer 708 00:43:39,846 --> 00:43:43,246 I could talk about this for like 10 minutes. So you have to cut me off if I go too long, but 709 00:43:43,246 --> 00:43:47,146 the real answer is like, yeah, from like a technical perspective, I mean, this is the 710 00:43:47,146 --> 00:43:51,066 average cost basis. So one, it's like a, it's a resistance level, right? Like people who bought 711 00:43:51,066 --> 00:43:53,926 in and that was their average cost basis. And they were sitting, you know, 20% below, 712 00:43:54,046 --> 00:43:57,966 below their cost basis. They were like, okay, now I'm in profit. I might as well just take it 713 00:43:57,966 --> 00:44:02,546 and just move on with my life. I'm no longer in loss. So it's one, it's, it's smashed through that 714 00:44:02,546 --> 00:44:05,706 resistance level. It's probably going to chop sideways as people make that decision, whether 715 00:44:05,706 --> 00:44:10,766 or not to allocate or take the profits as they've made them. But the other side of it is when you 716 00:44:10,766 --> 00:44:15,466 look at the data, generally people have been buying. I mean, like I said, we saw some outflows, 717 00:44:15,466 --> 00:44:21,486 but from when these things launched in January of 24 until now, until the peak in October 10, 718 00:44:21,586 --> 00:44:26,626 2025, there were $64 billion that came out of these things. That's absolutely smashing success. 719 00:44:26,806 --> 00:44:30,086 We thought they were going to be success. They knocked any of our predictions out of the water. 720 00:44:30,226 --> 00:44:34,326 They knocked pretty much anyone's predictions out of the water. But now, so they pulled back a little 721 00:44:34,326 --> 00:44:39,026 bit to like 53. We're now at 56, 57. So we're just $6 billion away from that all-time high 722 00:44:39,026 --> 00:44:43,406 order mark of money coming into these things. So really, at the end of the day, for the most part, 723 00:44:43,446 --> 00:44:47,666 people have been allocating. When you look at a lot of those outflows, we can see what institutions 724 00:44:47,666 --> 00:44:52,406 were buying these. We don't know what retail is doing. So 70, 75% of the holders of these things 725 00:44:52,406 --> 00:44:56,726 are retail. From an institution's perspective, advisors have been allocating. The only time 726 00:44:56,726 --> 00:45:00,226 they were net sellers was in the first quarter. They were buying in the second quarter. They're 727 00:45:00,226 --> 00:45:03,646 likely buying now. It's hedge funds that we're selling earlier this year, mostly. 728 00:45:04,226 --> 00:45:08,786 It's interesting. A couple of things are at the end. 70% of the ETF holders are retail. 729 00:45:09,286 --> 00:45:14,406 And it was mostly hedge funds at the beginning of the year, but institutional buyers continued 730 00:45:14,406 --> 00:45:19,386 to buy through the dip. So they bought all of those long timers who sold their coins. 731 00:45:19,386 --> 00:45:23,726 They just snapped them up, snapped them up, snapped them up. And that's what they've been doing. 732 00:45:23,726 --> 00:45:31,666 I just and it is interesting too that on average they're basically they have been buying all right 733 00:45:31,666 --> 00:45:36,506 and you know that's what a lot of people say is a lot of the ETF a lot of the ETF purchases on on 734 00:45:36,506 --> 00:45:41,306 the whole on average end up being hobbers all right so I gave pomp and Geordi a hard time I 735 00:45:41,306 --> 00:45:46,886 like both of them pomp's a complicated one for me you know he's he's been around for a while which 736 00:45:46,886 --> 00:45:51,626 means he's taken a few strays he's probably led a few people down the wrong path a couple of times 737 00:45:51,906 --> 00:45:52,906 Maybe intentionally, maybe not. 738 00:45:52,926 --> 00:45:53,286 I don't know. 739 00:45:53,846 --> 00:45:58,726 But the one thing that guys like Pomp and Natalie Burnell and others, they're really good at. 740 00:45:58,726 --> 00:46:09,466 They're not saying they're similar, but I'm saying the things that they both are really good at are being a consistent, well-spoken representative on Bitcoin to the media. 741 00:46:10,486 --> 00:46:15,566 And Fox Business has a show with a guy named Barney or something like that. 742 00:46:15,806 --> 00:46:16,786 He's an older fellow. 743 00:46:16,986 --> 00:46:18,126 He's been around for a while. 744 00:46:18,126 --> 00:46:21,746 and he's just never really liked Bitcoin. 745 00:46:22,386 --> 00:46:24,486 And so when it rips, 746 00:46:24,906 -->

00:46:27,546 he has to take his licks, right? 747 00:46:27,586 --> 00:46:28,346 Or his, what is it? 748 00:46:28,626 --> 00:46:28,986 Lashes? 749 00:46:29,166 --> 00:46:29,506 I don't know. 750 00:46:29,586 --> 00:46:31,126 He has to admit that he was wrong. 751 00:46:31,626 --> 00:46:32,566 And so Pomp comes on there 752 00:46:32,566 --> 00:46:34,246 and they have an interesting conversation. 753 00:46:34,366 --> 00:46:35,946 I thought since I gave Pomp a hard time 754 00:46:35,946 --> 00:46:36,606 earlier in the show, 755 00:46:36,946 --> 00:46:38,466 we'd wrap up with this clip. 756 00:46:38,766 --> 00:46:40,166 For us to bring this technology to everybody. 757 00:46:40,166 --> 00:46:41,606 I remember coming on the show 758 00:46:41,606 --> 00:46:43,226 many, many, many years ago 759 00:46:43,226 --> 00:46:44,286 and saying that Bitcoin 760 00:46:44,286 --> 00:46:46,106 was the be-all and end-all of the future. 761 00:46:46,106 --> 00:46:50,626 And I poo-pooed you. I know I did. I was arguing vigorously with you. 762 00:46:50,626 --> 00:46:50,706 All right, everybody did. 763 00:46:51,266 --> 00:46:58,166 Everybody did, actually, yes. And we all missed out. So how come Bitcoin is now rallying? You're 764 00:46:58,166 --> 00:47:03,246 at 85.9 today. It's rallying. How come it's doing that when the Clarity Act failed? 765 00:47:03,746 --> 00:47:06,786 Well, I've been saying for months now, Bitcoin doesn't need the Clarity Act because Bitcoin 766 00:47:06,786 --> 00:47:11,166 already has clarity. We know what the regulatory treatment of Bitcoin is. But more importantly is 767 00:47:11,166 --> 00:47:14,286 Bitcoin is the most sensitive asset to global liquidity. 768 00:47:14,286 --> 00:47:16,966 And the U.S. government for the last month or so 769 00:47:16,966 --> 00:47:17,946 continues to tell us 770 00:47:17,946 --> 00:47:19,806 they are going to print a heck of a lot of money. 771 00:47:19,966 --> 00:47:22,026 We have more than a $40 trillion national debt. 772 00:47:22,166 --> 00:47:23,526 We have more than a trillion dollars annually 773 00:47:23,526 --> 00:47:24,646 in terms of the interest expense. 774 00:47:25,086 --> 00:47:28,446 And Bitcoin has no top because the dollar has no bottom. 775 00:47:28,566 --> 00:47:29,966 And so if the government keeps printing money, 776 00:47:30,406 --> 00:47:43,562 Bitcoin is gonna go way higher in the coming years And I think what you seeing in the last 30 days or so is that once the government Scott Besson at the Treasury said I going to double the purchases We going to print more money Everyone said maybe I should get some Bitcoin in case it catches on 777 00:47:43,682 --> 00:47:47,042 And I think that's what's happening. I'm inclined to go along with you to a point. 778 00:47:47,562 --> 00:47:50,442 I rather like my 5% return on a 10-year Treasury. 779 00:47:50,442 --> 00:48:04,902 it's all right Stuart you can have your five percent we're going to wrap up with the state 780 00:48:04,902 --> 00:48:10,802 of the network let's check in and see how things are doing I'm wrapping up at block height 968 781 00:48:10,802 --> 00:48:15,122 thousand three hundred and six what nine hundred and sixty eight thousand a cool number for some 782 00:48:15,122 --> 00:48:21,042 reason ah nine hundred sixty eight thousand three hundred and seven the current bitcoin price to us 783 00:48:21,042 --> 00:48:28,402 dollar is eighty four thousand one hundred and thirty that puts our stats per dollar at one thousand 784 00:48:28,402 --> 00:48:33,762 one hundred and ninety we are still down thirty three point three percent from our all-time high 785 00:48:34,442 --> 00:48:35,482 Doesn't feel like it, though. 786 00:48:35,762 --> 00:48:38,182 Yes, that was 351 days ago. 787 00:48:38,822 --> 00:48:40,102 October 6, 2025. 788 00:48:40,842 --> 00:48:44,622 Estimated difficulty change is now a downward adjustment of 2.6%. 789 00:48:44,622 --> 00:48:49,762 And nodes on the network, 24,009. 790 00:48:50,102 --> 00:48:51,442 It's an interesting correction as well. 791 00:48:52,262 --> 00:48:54,862 So we're down just a bit in the last 24 hours, 2.6%. 792 00:48:54,862 --> 00:48:58,182 But since the last episode, Bitcoin is up 12%. 793 00:48:58,182 --> 00:48:59,702 Look at it go. 794 00:49:00,182 --> 00:49:01,042 Look at it go. 795 00:49:01,542 --> 00:49:05,422 And of course, that retarget is 1,389 blocks away. 796 00:49:06,782 --> 00:49:09,762 Fees really remain the same that they have been for quite a while. 797 00:49:10,322 --> 00:49:11,582 The network is moving right along. 798 00:49:11,702 --> 00:49:14,522 It's fascinating to watch it adjust, see it adapt in real time. 799 00:49:14,922 --> 00:49:16,322 Of course, the network is strong. 800 00:49:26,742 --> 00:49:29,822 Links to what I talked about are at thisweekinbitcoin.show. 801 00:49:29,822 --> 00:49:39,202 Well, my goal is to give you a show that doesn't get distracted by the emotions about what is happening out there, but focuses on the signal and what you can do for yourself, your friends, your family, your business, your future, whatever it might be. 802 00:49:39,662 --> 00:49:40,242 Let me know. 803 00:49:40,322 --> 00:49:41,722 Boost.JupiterBroadcasting.com. 804 00:49:41,722 --> 00:49:47,202 Remember, I also want to know if you think over the next 30 days, are we going up or are we going down? 805 00:49:47,782 --> 00:49:51,602 Do we go to 70,000 first or do we go to 90,000 first? 806 00:49:52,782 --> 00:49:53,402 What do you think? 807 00:49:53,862 --> 00:49:55,942 Boost.JupiterBroadcasting.com. 808 00:49:56,002 --> 00:49:56,522 Let me know. 809 00:49:56,522 --> 00:50:00,042 And of course, of course, I'd love if you checked out the back catalog. 810 00:50:00,482 --> 00:50:07,342 And if you're in the Austin area during Texas Linux Fest, which is going to be in early November, come say hi. 811 00:50:07,442 --> 00:50:09,522 I think it's like November 7th. 812 00:50:10,482 --> 00:50:13,262 I'll look it up for you right now as I'm wrapping up, lugging it up. 813 00:50:13,382 --> 00:50:22,702 Texas Linux Fest, it is going to be, yes, November 6th through the 7th in Austin, Texas, in the beautiful Austin, Texas, at the Commons or something. 814 00:50:23,162 --> 00:50:24,322 Come around if you're going to be there. 815 00:50:24,362 --> 00:50:24,922 Come say hi. 816 00:50:24,922 --> 00:50:26,302 I'd love to talk Bitcoin with you. 817 00:50:26,302 --> 00:50:28,162 We don't get to do enough meetups on this show. 818 00:50:28,702 --> 00:50:30,382 So you can look up Texas Linux Fest. 819 00:50:30,702 --> 00:50:32,982 You, of course, can attend and come say hi there as well. 820 00:50:33,442 --> 00:50:34,642 And I'd love to hang out. 821 00:50:35,002 --> 00:50:37,042 And maybe, maybe that'll be one of the goals. 822 00:50:37,902 --> 00:50:39,082 You know, we turn things around. 823 00:50:39,762 --> 00:50:40,962 Support keeps coming in good. 824 00:50:41,042 --> 00:50:43,042 Maybe one of the goals is to start doing more of those meetups. 825 00:50:43,102 --> 00:50:45,282 Because I think that'd be another way to keep the energy high on the show 826 00:50:45,282 --> 00:50:48,542 and hear what people are really doing and how they're really using Bitcoin 827 00:50:48,542 --> 00:50:49,982 and improve the show with that. 828 00:50:50,402 --> 00:50:50,642 All right. 829 00:50:50,842 --> 00:50:51,522 Thanks for listening. 830 00:50:51,762 --> 00:50:53,442 See you back here next week. 831 00:50:56,302 --> 00:51:26,282 Thank you. 832 00:51:26,302 --> 00:51:56,282 Thank you. 833 00:51:56,302 --> 00:51:56,802 you