บทถอดความฉบับเต็มของ Leonardo Avritzer: Understanding the Brazilian election

00:03:26.159 --> 00:03:30.319 One is what is the Bolsa Familia and how why is this so important? 00:03:30.479 --> 00:03:34.159 Because you seem to say this is the social policy. 00:03:34.479 --> 00:03:39.120 And the second is what is a presidential coalition system. 00:03:39.919 --> 00:03:40.560 Yeah. 00:03:40.800 --> 00:03:54.560 Uh so let's start with the presidential coalition system, which is a system that maybe exists only in Brazil, but as party fragmentation is uh moving everywhere. 00:03:54.800 --> 00:03:58.319 Maybe we'll see uh the system in other places. 00:03:58.560 --> 00:04:06.240 But in Brazil, the president is elected with a majority of the votes, 50% plus one votes. 00:04:06.479 --> 00:04:16.319 Uh but it the Brazilian president since 1994 never had a majority in parliament. 00:04:16.560 --> 00:04:18.639 So he needs a coalition. 00:04:18.959 --> 00:04:35.120 And uh how he crafts this coalition, he crafts this coalition distributing cabinet portfolios to other parties, especially PMDB, but also other parties as the Brazilian system fragmented. 00:04:36.160 --> 00:04:39.920 And with that, uh majorities created. 00:04:40.160 --> 00:05:08.560 So both Cardozo, Fernando Cardozo, Brazilian president between 1994 and uh 2002, and Lula, president between 2003 and 2010, they could approve, they had the rates of approval of his of their legal initiatives in Congress that was similar to the approval rates of the British system. 00:05:09.519 --> 00:05:20.160 So close to 90% of their legal initiatives were approved in Congress, and this is the Presidential Coalition system. 00:05:20.639 --> 00:05:37.199 As to Bolsa Família, Bolsa Família is a compensatory policy that's very important in order to reduce the huge inequalities that exist in Brazil. 00:05:37.920 --> 00:06:02.639 The government gives, it's not an entitlement in the sense that you need to qualify for it, but still the government uh supplements the income of the poor families up to 600 AIs, which is uh about half of the minimum wage and approximately 100 US dollars. 00:06:03.199 --> 00:06:17.600 I was checking some numbers the other day, and in 2026, uh some almost 20 million families receive cash from the Bolsa Familia. 00:06:18.160 --> 00:06:18.560 Yeah. 00:06:19.360 --> 00:06:21.120 It's a cash transfer system. 00:06:21.600 --> 00:06:25.360 No pork barrel politics is involved. 00:06:25.600 --> 00:06:29.040 Uh you either qualify or you do not qualify. 00:06:29.360 --> 00:06:35.600 Mayors or local politicians do not have any influence on Bolsa Familia. 00:06:35.759 --> 00:06:39.279 It's a truly universal cash transfer system. 00:06:39.600 --> 00:06:43.199 We have some local color, I can hear some birds in the background. 00:06:43.920 --> 00:06:44.560 Yeah. 00:06:45.199 --> 00:06:49.040 So it's a Bolsonaro did did try to change it a bit. 00:06:49.519 --> 00:06:56.879 Well, Bolsonaro, Bolsonaro uh it's a politician that has just a few concerns. 00:06:57.120 --> 00:07:02.639 He has a moral agenda, and the moral agenda is the most important issue for him. 00:07:02.879 --> 00:07:18.959 So being against abortion, being against the adoption of children by gay couples, uh, this kind of agenda are the important agendas for Bolsonaro, and he wanted to mobilize this base. 00:07:19.360 --> 00:07:24.720 Bolsa Familia and uh Bolaro inherited it. 00:07:24.959 --> 00:07:50.480 He kept it uh with a very low payment, and in the last year of his administration, he increased the value of Bolsa Familia, but he did not uh uh in his budget proposal for 2023, which would be the year if he would be re-elected, he would need to pay for it. 00:07:50.639 --> 00:07:55.839 There was no forecast for Bolsa Familia in the 2023 budget. 00:07:56.079 --> 00:08:07.519 So it was clearly a sort of cash transfer electoral cycle, in which you pay for the poor to vote for you and then you leave them behind after that. 00:08:08.240 --> 00:08:11.759 This kind of uh politics. 00:08:12.000 --> 00:08:12.480 Yeah. 00:08:12.879 --> 00:08:20.240 But he he wasn't proposing to end it, he was it was just this, he he gave an extra which was unfunded. 00:08:20.720 --> 00:08:21.040 Yeah. 00:08:21.680 --> 00:08:23.519 So that's the Bolsa Familia. 00:08:23.680 --> 00:08:34.639 So then far, people say, and indeed from within, people say that somehow the Bolsonaro period was some sort of threat to Brazilian institutions. 00:08:35.279 --> 00:08:43.840 And of course, we have seen elsewhere that elected presidents can undermine political institutions quite sometimes quite fundamentally. 00:08:44.080 --> 00:08:49.919 So, what is it that he tried to do, and what was it that what was the resistance? 00:08:50.799 --> 00:09:08.399 Yeah, well, from day one, or even before that, still during the electoral period in uh 2018, Bolsonaro uh son made the remark: well, to close the Brazilian Supreme Court, you need just need a GIP. 00:09:08.720 --> 00:09:13.759 And uh a GIP, yeah, and two soldiers. 00:09:14.000 --> 00:09:18.240 You don't need more than that to close the Brazilian Supreme Court. 00:09:18.559 --> 00:09:28.000 He was dead wrong about that, because Brazilians, in fact, respect the court, and the court has a legitimacy among Brazilians. 00:09:28.240 --> 00:09:46.799 In addition to that, still in the early months of 2019, uh it came to the attention of many people in Brazil that uh there were attacks to the opposition, but also to Supreme Court justices, important politicians. 00:09:47.519 --> 00:10:11.840 And as people would try to see where these attacks uh in the in the internet or social networks were coming from, they identified the second floor of the presidential palace where an institution, quote unquote, called the hate cabinet, was established. 00:10:12.159 --> 00:10:15.840 The hate that's right, Gabinete do audio. 00:10:16.480 --> 00:10:17.039 Exactly. 00:10:17.120 --> 00:10:19.519 Yeah, hate cabinet, yes. 00:10:19.759 --> 00:10:20.399 Yes. 00:10:20.720 --> 00:10:36.960 Um

and uh Bolsonaro created a professional structure to uh further polarize the country, attack center politicians, and the Brazilian Supreme Court. 00:10:37.440 --> 00:10:48.159 The Supreme Court, as a reaction to that, opened uh an inquiry uh that is called the Fake News Investigation. 00:10:48.320 --> 00:11:11.919 Yeah, and fake news investigation, which uh at that point um the member who was assigned to chair this investigation was the junior minister or the rookie of the Brazilian uh Supreme Court, Alexandre de Moraes, yeah, was just has just been nominated by Michel Temer. 00:11:12.480 --> 00:11:14.559 So he was in charge. 00:11:15.120 --> 00:11:18.960 And very rapidly he identified the source. 00:11:19.200 --> 00:11:33.200 And he and uh and the Brazilian federal police, uh, it's a judicial police that's very active and take orders directly from the Brazilian Supreme Court, which is not the American system. 00:11:33.360 --> 00:11:39.840 I don't know how it is the British system, but in the US you need to go through the Attorney General. 00:11:40.000 --> 00:11:42.000 But in Brazil you don't need to. 00:11:42.480 --> 00:11:53.919 So uh the federal police investigated and uh made several uh indictments out of that. 00:11:54.480 --> 00:12:07.840 This was the beginning of Bolsonaro's uh attack on democratic institutions, and he started to make personal attacks against Moraes and in September 7. 00:12:08.320 --> 00:12:23.120 September 7 is Independence Day in Brazil, September 7, 2021, he made a very strong speech against Moraes, saying, I'm not I'm no longer going to accept his orders. 00:12:23.360 --> 00:12:28.720 So this is the first point of Bolsonaro's attack against democracy. 00:12:28.960 --> 00:12:40.639 A second one, which is also very important, is Bolsonaro from the very beginning made criticisms of the electronic ballot. 00:12:41.039 --> 00:12:56.799 Brazil has a very sophisticated technological system for counting the votes much better than many uh advanced democracies, especially the US. 00:12:56.879 --> 00:13:01.360 Well, it's not clear that the US is an advanced democracy at this point. 00:13:01.919 --> 00:13:21.759 Uh, but still, the US counts votes on a decentralized way, Brazil counts votes on a centralized system, and uh despite the fact that we had uh more than 100 million electors, uh the electoral result comes out in a few hours. 00:13:22.000 --> 00:13:24.240 So Bolsonaro criticized this. 00:13:24.480 --> 00:13:34.240 He criticized the system, said the system was prone to hacking, which is not true, because the system is not connected. 00:13:34.320 --> 00:13:38.399 It's an intranet and it's not connected to the internet. 00:13:39.279 --> 00:13:57.279 Um also uh increased his attacks uh against the system as the Brazilian electoral court gave access to the system, which is a common procedure about the near before the election. 00:13:57.440 --> 00:14:14.559 Uh any party can check the system, can check the coding of the system in

order to uh be sure that it works and it does not lead, uh mislead uh in relation to the results. 00:14:14.799 --> 00:14:25.519 So Bolsonaro made this attack, and in July 2022, a few months before the election, he called what we today call the ambassadors meeting. 00:14:25.759 --> 00:14:39.279 So he summoned um international ambassadors to the presidential palace in order to say that the system was not safe and that uh he was afraid that the elections would be reaped. 00:14:39.600 --> 00:14:48.399 Today he's even convicted for spending resources for summoning the ambassadors. 00:14:48.559 --> 00:14:58.720 So all this uh led to uh a comprehensive challenge of Brazilian political institutions. 00:14:59.039 --> 00:15:03.919 And did he have support from other parts of the I mean he wasn't alone in this, was he? 00:15:04.080 --> 00:15:10.000 He had support from people in the parliament, in the chamber, in the Senate, from the press. 00:15:14.879 --> 00:15:19.840 And uh there is uh also an informal institution that we call Central. 00:15:20.320 --> 00:15:29.759 And Central is kind of rentiers of the political system that goes from the extreme right to the center right. 00:15:29.919 --> 00:15:36.159 And Central was in charge of both chambers, the lower chamber and the Senate. 00:15:36.399 --> 00:15:36.559 Yeah. 00:15:36.720 --> 00:15:39.360 Central, which just means the big center. 00:15:39.840 --> 00:15:41.519 Yeah, the big center, yeah. 00:15:41.840 --> 00:15:43.120 And central was in charge. 00:15:43.360 --> 00:15:52.080 Central perhaps never agreed, also because the Brazilian presidential election elections are a comprehensive election. 00:15:52.240 --> 00:16:05.679 Uh all governors, uh between one-third and two-thirds of the senators, uh, all MPs, federal and state, they are all elected on the same day. 00:16:05.919 --> 00:16:10.000 So you challenge election, you challenge all deals. 00:16:10.399 --> 00:16:18.960 And of course, for Central, it made no sense to challenge uh its own uh uh election. 00:16:19.759 --> 00:16:27.440 So Bolsonaro was not alone, but he did not have a huge majority on his side as he did that. 00:16:29.519 --> 00:16:44.240 So so this um personality in Morais has become a very central figure, and some people might say that he has acquired a political um protagonism, shall we say. 00:16:44.480 --> 00:17:04.640 I mean, certainly to people uh to me and to people outside Brazil if the procedure that the Supreme Court can initiate um a an investigation is very unusual, but they can just do this on the basis of what they read in the papers, so to speak, on their own initiative. 00:17:05.519 --> 00:17:07.359 Well, not exactly. 00:17:07.519 --> 00:17:18.319 Yeah, well, um in Brazil, Ministério Público, the public prosecutor, is the initiator of all uh criminal investigations. 00:17:18.559 --> 00:17:18.880 Yeah. 00:17:19.119 --> 00:17:21.440 So this is the Brazilian law. 00:17:21.759 --> 00:17:30.799 But uh the statute of the Brazilian

Supreme Court allows the court to initiate processes when it is attacked. 00:17:31.039 --> 00:17:36.880 And this is the foundation, the legal foundation of the fake news investigation. 00:17:37.119 --> 00:17:37.440 Right. 00:17:37.680 --> 00:17:50.000 Yeah, so it's not completely illegal, but uh, of course, it was an overstretching of the court uh legal initiative. 00:17:50.240 --> 00:18:21.920 The court did that to defend itself, and uh, we can say uh that this is a sort of defensive democracy device, because if the court did not do it, eventually Brazil could have ceased uh to be a democracy, yeah, because Bolsonaro would really uh disempower the court, and the court was very important to contain him just after the 2022 election. 00:18:22.319 --> 00:18:22.960 Yeah. 00:18:23.279 --> 00:18:31.119 So I should say to the readers also that in Brazilian political jargon, the word for fake news is fake news. 00:18:31.680 --> 00:18:34.960 It's a become part of the language in Brazil. 00:18:35.599 --> 00:18:51.440 So you don't think that um the protagonism of this particular in individual judge who has taken the lead in in several cases has um done any harm to the standing of the Supreme Court? 00:18:53.039 --> 00:19:12.799 Well, um it's difficult to say when you are in a situation where democracy is eroding itself uh from within, yeah, as we say, is the case of Brazil, the United States, and a few other countries, uh uh you have to face two issues. 00:19:12.960 --> 00:19:15.920 One is how can I save democracy? 00:19:16.240 --> 00:19:22.640 And uh, of course, you need to address this issue in legal terms. 00:19:22.880 --> 00:19:37.759 So uh Moraes went, uh took this road, and the road was at least semi-legal in a good sense of the word, because the statute of the Supreme Court, of the Constitution of the Supreme Court allowed it. 00:19:38.160 --> 00:19:45.839 Uh, but in addition to that, uh it was an overstretching of the court uh prerogatives. 00:19:46.240 --> 00:20:00.079 Um but I ask you if the US Supreme Court would be using the same kind of devices and forbidding some of the abuses of Donald Trump, would the US today be less or more democratic? 00:20:00.960 --> 00:20:03.119 Well, I don't know because it hasn't happened yet. 00:20:03.279 --> 00:20:05.200 I mean, I I'm not okay. 00:20:05.440 --> 00:20:08.240 I'm not saying I hope it will happen soon. 00:20:08.559 --> 00:20:09.200 Yes. 00:20:09.920 --> 00:20:10.559 Yes. 00:20:11.119 --> 00:20:16.079 So, and then well, then Lula wins the election. 00:20:16.319 --> 00:20:21.519 Um still, though, one has to say that it wasn't by a massive majority. 00:20:21.599 --> 00:20:29.440 I mean, and if it hadn't been for Lula, do you think that Bolsonaro might have won the election in 2022? 00:20:30.559 --> 00:20:39.920 Well, Bolsonaro created his uh or managed his administration in order to enlarge his political basis. 00:20:40.160 --> 00:20:53.119 So he did many, many things up to the pandemic that uh would give

uh enormous advantage to himself and his uh political group. 00:20:54.559 --> 00:21:10.160 In addition to that, uh Bolsonaro uh was popular in the sense that he did a sort of populist policy that was uh very uh well accepted by the Brazilian poor. 00:21:10.400 --> 00:21:21.759 He would come to the major cities to to make a motorcycle parade uh with his supporters, something that we called motossiatas. 00:21:22.160 --> 00:21:24.880 Mussolini also liked to do that. 00:21:25.039 --> 00:21:25.680 Yeah. 00:21:25.920 --> 00:21:31.039 Uh so and people would see themselves contemplated. 00:21:31.359 --> 00:21:44.480 Bolsonaro had built up various constituencies during his presidency, and despite the disaster of COVID, which doesn't seem to have harmed him as much as you would have thought. 00:21:45.519 --> 00:21:46.000 Yeah. 00:21:46.240 --> 00:21:55.119 Um well um he created new constituencies and made important advances towards the poor. 00:21:55.440 --> 00:22:06.000 He allowed the guys who uh received Increase in Bolsa familiar's value to indept themselves in public value. 00:22:07.039 --> 00:22:17.920 So Bolsonaro put into the economy something close to one percent of the Brazilian GNP in the 90 days before the election. 00:22:18.240 --> 00:22:19.279 That's a lot. 00:22:20.079 --> 00:22:21.119 Yeah, it's a lot. 00:22:21.599 --> 00:22:22.880 This made a difference. 00:22:25.440 --> 00:22:36.160 These were people who who were who were very poor who were receiving uh 600 AIs from Alta Familia and they were able to go to the bank and borrow m borrow against that. 00:22:37.519 --> 00:22:38.079 My God. 00:22:38.480 --> 00:22:45.599 So that that th that's why he how he maintained uh you know a fairly high percentage of the vote. 00:22:46.000 --> 00:22:58.079 So and uh of course the other element which people talk about a lot is the evangelical vote, which seems to go two-thirds to to Bolsonaro, no? 00:22:58.880 --> 00:23:17.359 Yeah, the evangelical vote was also very important because you you need to see that uh the increase in the political influence of the new Pentecostal politicians of Juma Hussein uh did not produce a political decadent. 00:23:17.839 --> 00:23:24.720 As a matter of fact, uh Jim Hassan himself, the important bishop of the universal church. 00:23:24.960 --> 00:23:28.480 He broke with Juma ten days before the impeachment. 00:23:29.119 --> 00:23:39.359 So um the new Pentecostals were almost evenly divided to change after the impeachment and after today. 00:23:43.759 --> 00:23:53.279 Uh there is a difference of almost 20 points in evangelical support for Bolsonaro and Lula. 00:23:53.839 --> 00:23:55.680 So this was also very important. 00:23:56.319 --> 00:24:00.480 Where Bolsonaro did not fare well, he did not fare well. 00:24:00.960 --> 00:24:13.680 Uh in the Brazilian Northeast, among women and in large cities of the Brazilian Southeast, where he was losing support because of COVID, for instance. 00:24:14.000 --> 00:24:21.440 Lula won in

the city of Sao Paulo, though uh loss in the state of Sao Paulo. 00:24:22.720 --> 00:24:30.319 The difference of votes in the state of Sao Paulo between Haddad who ran in 2018 and Lula. 00:24:30.799 --> 00:24:35.839 Uh Lula decreased this difference in almost four million votes. 00:24:36.960 --> 00:24:57.039 In regard to the internal Brazilian policies, Brazil has been very active and really resisted the attempts and the pressures of the United States uh to bring Brazil to its knees through taxes and international tariffs. 00:24:57.200 --> 00:25:11.599 Uh so Brazil resisted, uh received um exemptions, the US uh went back in regard to the imposition of tariffs in Brazil. 00:25:11.839 --> 00:25:16.640 Right now uh the tariffs are back, but Brazil is still negotiating. 00:25:16.799 --> 00:25:43.839 There are negotiations that will happen today uh with uh between Brazil and the US in this regard, and Brazil in this sense is doing uh at least as well as Canada and China, in the sense of uh telling the United States administration that it's not going to get its way without negotiation, negotiating uh uh with fair terms uh with the country. 00:25:44.240 --> 00:25:58.000 So in this regard, I think that the Lula's administration did very well despite the fact that there is this enormous imbalance of power between the United States uh and Brazil. 00:25:58.400 --> 00:26:05.200 Uh so uh I think uh that will uh the game is still being played. 00:26:05.279 --> 00:26:10.240 Uh we cannot say that the US will get its way in relation to Latin America. 00:26:10.400 --> 00:26:19.920 Even Claudia Scheinbaum, in my view, she resisted on key issues in regard to the US that she needed uh to resist. 00:26:20.400 --> 00:26:26.160 But we cannot make a coalition with Malay or with Keiko Fujimori. 00:26:26.880 --> 00:26:42.720 Though it's important to point out that Keiko made important openings in regard to the Lula's administration just after her inauguration, and the bilateral relations between Peru and Brazil right now are not bad. 00:26:44.000 --> 00:27:10.960 So Brazil in relation to the other South American countries is trying to solve the issue on uh bilateral um uh negotiations, and in regard to the US, it's not bending in the same way that other countries did because it has an economy that it's very calibrated in terms of its international relations. 00:27:11.279 --> 00:27:27.759 So the US is not uh does not represent a huge uh amount of the Brazilian exports, as a matter of fact, Brazilian exports are very balanced uh to both China, the European community and the US. 00:27:27.839 --> 00:27:35.039 And I would say that the US does not have the kind of leeway it thinks uh it has with Brazil. 00:27:35.279 --> 00:27:46.240 So uh uh during the first uh uh uh attractions between the Trump administration and Brazil, the US reviewed its position. 00:27:46.400 --> 00:27:58.000 Uh and I hope it will review again, despite the fact that it's not happy with the administration,

uh but the role of the Brazilian administration is not making Trump happy. 00:27:58.559 --> 00:27:58.799 No. 00:27:59.279 --> 00:28:05.440 Because you say Brazil's main uh partner for commodities trade is China, isn't it? 00:28:05.759 --> 00:28:06.640 Not not America. 00:28:07.599 --> 00:28:08.720 It's very easy. 00:28:09.119 --> 00:28:13.839 Uh so China it it's uh the largest partner. 00:28:14.400 --> 00:28:27.039 Um the US, as a matter of fact, Brazilian exports to the US uh are decreasing in quantity and in value because uh this is the result of the tariffs. 00:28:27.119 --> 00:28:27.440 Yeah. 00:28:29.359 --> 00:28:54.160 Um if the situation continues as it is, most likely there there will emerge uh uh a second and a third partner, and Brazil will diversify its exports because Brazilian meat exports, for instance, are uh are sick in in the Middle East, for instance, Saudi Arabia and other countries. 00:28:54.319 --> 00:29:09.839 Uh in Europe, there is some sort of protest among especially French uh uh farmers, but still Brazil is increasing uh its agricultural exports also to the European community. 00:29:10.160 --> 00:29:17.359 So I don't think that the US has the kind of leverage with Brazil that it thinks uh it has. 00:29:18.000 --> 00:29:18.400 Yeah. 00:29:18.960 --> 00:29:28.960 So finally, uh does Brazil uh do Brazil do Brazilian diplomats, shall we say, not politicians, because I don't think they're particularly uh interested in the subject. 00:29:29.359 --> 00:29:41.680 Do Brazilian diplomats have any uh idea of whether uh whether they should have a role uh in Venezuela or do they have uh relation relationships with the Venezuelan government? 00:29:43.759 --> 00:29:53.920 Well the problem is that the Maduro's administration was on very bad terms with Brazil when he was captured uh uh early this January. 00:29:54.160 --> 00:30:07.440 So Brazil did not recognize the election result and uh it should not have, because uh there were indications of massive fraud uh which does not justify of course uh the US invasion. 00:30:07.680 --> 00:30:13.920 But as a matter of fact, uh Brazil was not on very good terms uh with Maduro. 00:30:14.559 --> 00:30:37.119 Um so um the Brazilian position is uh we are, of course, for the full self-determination of Venezuela uh in uh all its meanings, which means that the Venezuelan oil should belong to Venezuela in addition to its political sovereignty. 00:30:37.519 --> 00:30:55.759 The problem is what Brazil can do right now, and we have to point out that it's not just a Brazilian problem, the Europeans also did not protest very much uh in the same way as the Chinese and the Russians, because we are in a different world right now in relation to these issues. 00:30:56.000 --> 00:31:08.079 So Brazil is doing exactly in relation to Venezuela or uh exactly the same that all the other countries uh in the international community are doing. 00:31:08.960 --> 00:31:09.359 Yeah. 00:31:09.759 --> 00:31:31.680 I mean I did

feel that for many years uh Brazil and other Latin American countries were very uh unwilling to take a position wh while Maduro and indeed Chavez before him were clearly breaking the rules on in a systematic and ever ever more violent basis uh way. 00:31:32.240 --> 00:31:40.799 But there was very little um very little will to become involved. 00:31:41.279 --> 00:31:51.359 And that of course is to do with the Latin American what you've just described, you know, the Latin American um respect for respect for sovereignty. 00:31:53.519 --> 00:32:12.079 As we are speaking, the Brazilian media are talking about the Brazilian Supreme Court finding itself in the midst of the worst crisis since the constitution of 1988, and maybe even since long before that. 00:32:12.640 --> 00:32:24.559 This has to do with a case surrounding a bank called the Banco Master, which has then had various repercussions over the last six months or so. 00:32:24.799 --> 00:32:29.279 So, Leo, can you please explain to us what this is all about? 00:32:30.319 --> 00:32:54.160 Yes, um well, Banco Master, uh you need to understand that Brazil has a very monopolized financial system um that has been deregulated, uh, but uh still it's concept, most of the activity, financial activities and assets are concentrated in less than a dozen banks. 00:32:54.559 --> 00:33:15.759 Um Banco Master is a bank that emerged through deregulation here in Belo Horizonte with very strong links with Igreja Batista da Lagoinha, uh which is a new Pentecostal church uh in the city, but also very important neo-pentecostal church uh in Brazil as a whole. 00:33:16.000 --> 00:33:32.799 Banco Master grew offering uh very high interest rates uh for investors, and um these investors uh these interest rates were not sustainable. 00:33:32.960 --> 00:33:49.039 So what Master did uh it wanted funds from a guarantor uh institution that exists in Brazil, such as the FDIC in the United States, that is Fundo Garantidor de Crecio. 00:33:49.759 --> 00:34:33.760 And this is the federal this is the deposit insurance, it's a deposit insurance, but most of its money are paid by the banks, so eventually the largest Brazilian banks uh challenged the central bank about how much money it was putting into Master, and in order to circumvent the central bank regulation and the other banks, Master went to the political system and um um got on its side very important politicians and very important Supreme Court uh justices. 00:34:34.159 --> 00:34:57.039 So for you to understand, David, Master is very different from Lava Jato and uh Men Salão, not only because Master is clearly what we say in Brazil, a banco de direita, well, very strong links with the Brazilian rights and Bolsonaro's, but also because it's not a systemic crisis. 00:34:57.199 --> 00:35:04.960 It's not a crisis that involves the whole financial system, the whole political system, the whole judicial system. 00:35:05.199 --> 00:35:27.360 What master did is it paid outrageous amounts of money to a few people, and among these people we see at least one Brazilian Supreme Court Justice, very important one, Alexandre de Moraes, and also uh very important leaderships of the Central. 00:35:27.679 --> 00:35:31.280 I think we already talked about Central, yeah, Steven Gueira. 00:35:31.840 --> 00:35:39.519 We've also we've also heard of Moraes previously as it with his protagonism in the fake news case. 00:35:39.920 --> 00:35:40.559 Yes. 00:35:40.880 --> 00:36:03.360 Um Moraes had the protagonism in the fake news case and containing Bolsonaro, um in uh running uh the conviction of those who uh invaded the Tripower Square on January 8th, 2023. 00:36:03.599 --> 00:36:14.960 So a very powerful and Supreme uh Supreme Court justice, but through his wife law office, he received tens of millions of dollars. 00:36:15.280 --> 00:36:20.960 His wife, his wife, is his wife's legal of his wife's law, law practice. 00:36:21.280 --> 00:36:22.880 Yes, in Brazilia. 00:36:23.039 --> 00:36:25.519 And this, I would say, she's not the only one. 00:36:25.599 --> 00:36:56.800 It's very common among Supreme Court justices, but the case involves morais because it involves uh a felony that in Brazil we called advocacia administrativa, which is when an officer a public officer uh advocates privately uh or lobbies privately for uh uh some particular interest. 00:36:57.119 --> 00:37:01.360 So um it's different from Lava Jato, but it's very important. 00:37:02.480 --> 00:37:22.719 And because Bolsonaro was convicted by Moraes and by the Supreme Court, and because he cannot run, the Brazilian right wants to remove uh Moraes from his post or impeach Moraes uh through this scandal. 00:37:22.880 --> 00:37:23.760 What happens? 00:37:24.000 --> 00:37:32.559 Bolsonaro indicated uh Supreme Court justice, he indicated two, but one of them is neo-Pentecostal. 00:37:32.800 --> 00:37:42.800 In the words of Bolsonaro, he would indicate someone terriblemente evangelical, these uh these were the words he used. 00:37:42.960 --> 00:38:21.599 And Mendoza in the last week put fire on the Brazilian Supreme Court by first releasing, most likely illegally, messages between uh the president of uh the bank, Daniel Rojado, and Moraes, and second, uh because the Brazil the Brazilian Federal Police uh objected to some of his actions, he removed the president of the federal police, which is completely unconstitutional and illegal, and this was just restored this morning. 00:38:21.920 --> 00:38:36.159 But at this point, we have a public uh fight among Supreme Court justices that might uh influence or most certainly will influence the election. 00:38:36.320 --> 00:38:50.159 Um, the Brazilian Supreme Court at this point has a very weak president, it's a rotation position in Brazil, uh, it's a very weak justice, and he cannot stand against both of them. 00:38:50.480 --> 00:39:08.639 Um and we have um a guerra de liminares, a war of injunctions, uh, because the Brazilian Supreme Court is

both constitutional court but also the top level uh of appeal uh for normal cases. 00:39:09.199 --> 00:39:16.159 So all the time we see injunctions, which is something very uncommon in constitutional courts. 00:39:16.320 --> 00:39:22.880 So at this point, um this war might involve the other two powers. 00:39:23.119 --> 00:39:44.320 One because Mendonça yesterday interfered in the executive branch, also because Mendonça is investigating the president of the Senate, which is the House that oversees actions of the uh Brazilian Supreme Court justices. 00:39:44.719 --> 00:39:51.760 So we can reach Election Day in a generalized institutional crisis. 00:39:51.920 --> 00:39:54.320 This is a real possibility right now. 00:39:55.360 --> 00:40:01.280 You might reach election day with a crisis between the Senate and the Supreme Court. 00:40:02.159 --> 00:40:03.760 And the executive branch. 00:40:04.079 --> 00:40:04.960 And all three. 00:40:06.320 --> 00:40:08.480 Between the three, yeah, among the three. 00:40:08.880 --> 00:40:13.760 Why is Mendonsa investigating the president of the Supreme Court? 00:40:15.039 --> 00:40:20.400 No, he's not investigating the president of the Supreme Court, he's investigating Moraes. 00:40:20.559 --> 00:40:21.039 That's right. 00:40:21.199 --> 00:40:35.840 And he's in Moraes is not the president of the court, but in the rotation system, uh the forecast is he's going to assume the presidency uh late next year. 00:40:36.239 --> 00:40:43.840 But he is the strongest justice right now, though his legitimacy is decreasing. 00:40:44.079 --> 00:40:52.960 So Mendoza is investigating him because he changed he exchanged messages uh with the president of the master bank. 00:40:53.440 --> 00:40:58.880 So because he's yeah, he he was investigating also the president of the Senate. 00:40:59.679 --> 00:41:09.199 He's uh he's investigating the president of the Senate because he's also involved in the master scandal. 00:41:09.360 --> 00:41:10.480 Why is it? 00:41:10.719 --> 00:41:33.039 Because he's from a state of the north of Brazil called Amapa, and uh the pension fund of public employees in Amapa put money into the master bank, and the fund lost a lot of money, and the person who took the decision is personally linked to Davi of Columbria. 00:41:33.360 --> 00:41:35.280 The president of the Senate, I see. 00:41:35.519 --> 00:41:41.920 So I mean, how is this conceivable that one judge can investigate another? 00:41:42.719 --> 00:41:44.480 It's not conceivable. 00:41:44.800 --> 00:42:11.199 Uh, according to the constitution of the Brazilian Supreme Court, he needs the authorization uh both from the president of the court and from the pla uh the plenarium, the full uh members' uh chamber, and he evaded that and sent it to public opinion and to the press. 00:42:11.440 --> 00:42:23.679 The problem is right now, Brazilians and the Brazilian press, at least the large newspapers and global network, what they really want to know is did he receive the money? 00:42:24.800 --> 00:42:26.079 Is he guilty? 00:42:26.320 --> 00:42:45.039 We cannot in Brazil, given the low complex low uh education of our electorate, conceive that the electorate would understand that this is procedurally unfeasible or illegal. 00:42:45.280 --> 00:42:48.880 Um what people want is Moraes to explain himself. 00:42:49.119 --> 00:43:14.800 But in this process, Mendonza went so far that yesterday, monitoring social networks, some Brazilian uh monitoring institutions saw that Moraes was more uh Mendonza was more criticized in in uh the social media than had his uh actions approved. 00:43:15.039 --> 00:43:39.280 So one possible solution is uh not to impeach the two because this is going to take time, but at least to remove them from the actions that they are taking or from the Banco Master uh scandal uh in order for to allow the court to resume some sort of normality. 00:43:39.840 --> 00:43:48.880 So the Banco Master, meanwhile, I mean it attempted to take over a bank in Braz in Brasilia, didn't it? 00:43:49.360 --> 00:43:54.880 And it was not to take over, it's a it's a second parallel scandal. 00:43:55.039 --> 00:43:59.760 So Brazil had a bank called BRB, and BRB is a state. 00:44:00.400 --> 00:44:10.239 Bank of Brazilia popular among public employees that had nothing to do with the master scandal. 00:44:10.320 --> 00:44:29.199 But at this at one point, because Daniel Vojcaro, the bank president, is very well connected with the central, the governor of the Federal District, Ibanez Rocha, wanted his bank to help or to assume master. 00:44:29.519 --> 00:44:36.239 In the end, the bank lost$2 billion and did not solve the problem. 00:44:36.719 --> 00:44:42.880 So right now, uh this is also influencing the election in Brazilia. 00:44:43.119 --> 00:45:01.119 And the vice governor who was ranking first in the polls is now trailing a workers' party candidate who criticized her for the actions of both the former governor and the president of the BRB. 00:45:01.519 --> 00:45:05.599 So this is in the election for the governor of Brasilia. 00:45:06.000 --> 00:45:06.400 Yes. 00:45:06.639 --> 00:45:07.039 I see. 00:45:07.920 --> 00:45:09.679 The federal district, yeah. 00:45:10.079 --> 00:45:20.719 So finally, um you you use this expression one judge you say is weak, another judge is strong. 00:45:21.840 --> 00:45:37.280 And I mean we can see that Mohais has been very prominent in the media and has indeed got his way on in the in his um com in his um the trials of Bolsonaro. 00:45:37.440 --> 00:45:42.480 But um what do you really mean by a judge being strong or weak? 00:45:44.079 --> 00:45:52.320 Well, um the Brazilian Supreme Court is so politicized that some judges have the upper hand against others. 00:45:52.480 --> 00:46:09.760 For instance, uh Jomar Mendes was very strong during the Duma's administration, could even block uh her nomination of Lula for Chief of Staff in early 2015. 00:46:10.559 --> 00:46:20.239 Um Alexandre Mendes,

who used to be a rookie and was nominated by Michel Temer, uh became a very strong judge. 00:46:20.320 --> 00:46:24.239 And when you are a strong judge, you do things. 00:46:24.480 --> 00:46:35.280 For instance, you indict people, you interrupt uh actions uh of the executive branch. 00:46:35.440 --> 00:46:43.519 All this, in my view, is very wrong because the Supreme Court cannot assume prerogatives of the other branches. 00:46:43.599 --> 00:46:46.800 But in Brazil, if you are a strong judge, you can. 00:46:47.039 --> 00:46:57.760 And this is exactly what Mendonça tried to do yesterday, uh September 8th, when he removed the president of federal police. 00:46:58.000 --> 00:47:07.519 Federal police is an executive branch institution, and Lula has full authority, and no one can remove without due process. 00:47:07.920 --> 00:47:17.119 And uh removing the president of the federal police through an injunction is absolutely inconstitutional and illegal. 00:47:17.360 --> 00:47:19.760 So Mendoza tried to do that. 00:47:20.320 --> 00:47:28.000 And as he tried, he may uh diminish his influence in the court. 00:47:28.320 --> 00:47:36.880 Eventually, uh the full plenum will vote on that, and most likely he'll lose. 00:47:37.280 --> 00:47:42.239 So uh this is what a strong judge means. 00:47:42.400 --> 00:47:52.480 And a weak judge is a judge who does not have very much influence um with other justices. 00:47:53.119 --> 00:48:09.280 Um and right now, the weakest of the j among the justices is the president of the Brazilian Supreme Court, which is not good, and we'll see how this is going to evolve during the next few weeks. 00:48:09.599 --> 00:48:11.280 Well, this is really quite serious. 00:48:11.440 --> 00:48:21.760 I notice also that the polls which looked like giving favor to Lula are now leveling up between Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro. 00:48:22.400 --> 00:48:26.400 Well, this is a very short-run uh indicator. 00:48:26.719 --> 00:48:39.119 Uh so most likely it's because uh of the revelations uh that have been made against Moraes, but now we have revelations against Mendonza. 00:48:39.280 --> 00:48:46.079 And the fact of the matter is Lula is not involved with the Master Bank, but Flavio Bolsonaro is. 00:48:46.559 --> 00:49:07.039 So in the end, that is why they need to control the federal police, uh, or the bolsonaristas need to control the federal police, because most likely the upper hand on who is more involved is going to be decided through revelations of the Brazilian Federal Police. 00:49:07.440 --> 00:49:08.159 Very interesting. 00:49:08.320 --> 00:49:30.480 One should remember that the owner of the Banco Master uh offered to fund a film about um Jair Bolsonaro, and the son was raising what you said was enormo enormous sums of money for this, well in excess of what one might need for a film of that kind. 00:49:31.679 --> 00:49:45.840 Yes, and most likely the the extra money, though it's still not clear, but most likely the extra money is for funding extreme right activities against Brazil in the United States. 00:49:46.159 --> 00:49:46.559 Uh-huh. 00:49:47.840 --> 00:49:48.400 I see. 00:49:48.639 --> 00:50:09.119 And finally, I want to tell our listeners or remind our listeners that we have another podcast which was already published with Ezequiel Gonzalez Ocantos, which was also about the subject of the politicization of the judiciary or the judicialization of politics much more broadly in Latin America. 00:50:09.519 --> 00:50:13.840 So we have a theme there which is already in two of our podcasts. 00:50:15.679 --> 00:50:22.159 So thank you very much, Leo, for this extra, which we will add to the conversation we already had. 00:50:23.360 --> 00:50:24.639 Thank you, David. 00:50:25.440 --> 00:50:26.320 Such a pleasure. 00:50:27.360 --> 00:50:29.440 Thank you for listening to the Latin Americanist. 00:50:29.679 --> 00:50:39.599 If you enjoyed this episode, feel free to share it, and we'll be back soon with more insights, more interesting people, stories, and voices from across the region and beyond. 00:50:39.840 --> 00:50:43.760 Until then, stay curious and keep the conversation going.