สำเนาบทสนทนา 🔗
WEBVTT
1
00:00:02.759 --> 00:00:08.800
Al Jazeera podcasts Today, gen Z protests make way for
2
00:00:08.880 --> 00:00:11.560
a military coup and Madagascar.
3
00:00:11.000 --> 00:00:14.560
Breaking news out of Madagascar. The army has taken control
4
00:00:14.640 --> 00:00:17.839
of the country and lawmakers in the National Assembly have
5
00:00:17.960 --> 00:00:19.519
voted to impeach the president.
6
00:00:20.280 --> 00:00:23.640
But is this new leadership the type of change protesters
7
00:00:23.679 --> 00:00:26.879
had in mind. I'm Molica Bilal and this is the
8
00:00:26.960 --> 00:00:36.159
take before we continue with today's show. If you're watching this,
9
00:00:36.399 --> 00:00:38.520
remember to leave us a comment letting us know what
10
00:00:38.560 --> 00:00:41.240
you think about this episode and what stories you want
11
00:00:41.320 --> 00:00:44.280
us to do next. If you're listening, leave us a
12
00:00:44.320 --> 00:00:47.759
review on your podcast app telling us where you're listening from,
13
00:00:48.119 --> 00:00:50.359
and feel free to give us a five star rating
14
00:00:50.399 --> 00:00:52.439
while you're there. It really helps the show.
15
00:00:55.679 --> 00:00:58.200
My name is Rose Momagne. I'm a polic school ris
16
00:00:58.240 --> 00:01:01.200
canonists and Tambusaai. Thanks for having.
17
00:01:01.000 --> 00:01:04.439
Me well, Rose, thank you for being here. Welcome to
18
00:01:04.480 --> 00:01:08.879
the Take. In your role as political risk analyst, you
19
00:01:09.120 --> 00:01:13.079
made a prediction a few weeks ago as youth protests
20
00:01:13.079 --> 00:01:18.920
against the government of Madagascar ramped up, you foreshadowed a coup.
21
00:01:19.599 --> 00:01:23.200
Fast forward to this week and the president and Ron Joelina,
22
00:01:23.239 --> 00:01:26.239
has fled the country. Ninety nine percent of parliament has
23
00:01:26.280 --> 00:01:30.120
voted to impeach him for abandoning his post, and now
24
00:01:30.239 --> 00:01:34.200
the military has declared itself in charge. What made you
25
00:01:34.239 --> 00:01:36.480
think Madagascar was heading in this direction?
26
00:01:36.920 --> 00:01:38.719
Well, I mean, the main thing is that I've been
27
00:01:38.760 --> 00:01:42.200
monitoring the situation in Madagascar for many years now, and
28
00:01:42.799 --> 00:01:46.280
there was a build up of tensions between Rajulina and
29
00:01:46.400 --> 00:01:48.760
the business elites that put him in power after the
30
00:01:48.760 --> 00:01:52.719
coup of two thousand and nine. And so my biggest
31
00:01:52.719 --> 00:01:55.280
concern when I was monitoring maybe three years ago, was
32
00:01:55.319 --> 00:01:59.879
that how Rajelina managed these tensions, because the problem was
33
00:01:59.879 --> 00:02:01.959
that a lot of these elites no longer felt like
34
00:02:02.000 --> 00:02:04.640
Gradulina promoted and represented their interests.
35
00:02:05.480 --> 00:02:07.040
And so in the last three years of Agelia has
36
00:02:07.079 --> 00:02:08.520
really struggles to manage this.
37
00:02:09.599 --> 00:02:11.919
In the last I would say in the last few months,
38
00:02:11.960 --> 00:02:14.840
I started to see the cracks, particularly because of one
39
00:02:14.840 --> 00:02:19.520
and more reports of resistance and this sent against Raygulina
40
00:02:19.560 --> 00:02:21.800
in the army, partly because of some of the restructuring
41
00:02:21.840 --> 00:02:24.759
that he's done over the years that haven't been well
42
00:02:24.800 --> 00:02:28.719
received by some veteran leaders in the army. In Madagascar,
43
00:02:28.919 --> 00:02:33.879
the institutions are very weak. The army is the only
44
00:02:34.240 --> 00:02:38.759
or the most organized institution, the institution with the most legitimately,
45
00:02:39.360 --> 00:02:42.879
but because of how informal power structures are in Madagascar,
46
00:02:43.240 --> 00:02:45.840
the army does not act independently. They act a lot
47
00:02:45.919 --> 00:02:48.280
of the times in the interests of these business elits,
48
00:02:48.599 --> 00:02:51.560
and so when is falling off, is falling out of
49
00:02:51.639 --> 00:02:55.520
these elits. My concern is how the army reacts. In
50
00:02:55.560 --> 00:03:00.159
the past, they've used protests as justification to remove the
51
00:03:00.199 --> 00:03:03.560
president from power, and so when this protest broke out
52
00:03:04.199 --> 00:03:05.879
a few weeks ago, that was my concern.
53
00:03:05.960 --> 00:03:09.759
That these protests are quite huge. It provides a perfect.
54
00:03:09.400 --> 00:03:13.039
Opportunity for the army to remove Ragulina in the name
55
00:03:13.080 --> 00:03:16.680
of the people. But also at the time I was
56
00:03:16.680 --> 00:03:18.639
concerned at Regina, but I also see it as an
57
00:03:18.639 --> 00:03:24.039
opportunity to basically remove this business elite from the governance system.
58
00:03:24.080 --> 00:03:27.400
And so he dismissed the prime minister, dissolved his cabinet,
59
00:03:27.960 --> 00:03:30.479
and so that confirms as true that Ragelina was trying
60
00:03:30.520 --> 00:03:34.080
to also use the protests as justification to remove some
61
00:03:34.360 --> 00:03:37.879
politicians or some government officials that he believes have links
62
00:03:37.879 --> 00:03:38.960
to this business elite.
63
00:03:39.000 --> 00:03:41.599
And so he was trying to basically kill two birds
64
00:03:41.599 --> 00:03:42.400
with one stone.
65
00:03:42.840 --> 00:03:45.479
But like I said in one of the articles, I
66
00:03:45.520 --> 00:03:48.879
wrote that that was a very dangerous move for the
67
00:03:48.919 --> 00:03:52.479
president because you know, it could lead to a strong
68
00:03:52.520 --> 00:03:54.439
retaliation from this business and needs.
69
00:03:54.479 --> 00:03:56.719
And unfortunately that's what has happened.
70
00:03:57.439 --> 00:03:58.919
And so, like I said in the beginning, it's like
71
Load full transcript
00:03:58.960 --> 00:04:02.599
a combination of this tensions that have been building up
72
00:04:03.400 --> 00:04:05.039
for the last at three.
73
00:04:04.879 --> 00:04:10.199
Years rose you started to see the cracks. So we
74
00:04:10.280 --> 00:04:13.080
know that gen z Anti government protests have been having
75
00:04:13.120 --> 00:04:17.959
their moment in Nepal, in Morocco, Peru, other countries, and
76
00:04:18.000 --> 00:04:22.480
in Madagascar's capital of Antenna Narivo. Thousands of protesters were
77
00:04:22.519 --> 00:04:23.360
in the streets.
78
00:04:24.600 --> 00:04:28.000
At least twenty two killed in anti government protests according
79
00:04:28.040 --> 00:04:32.720
to the UN, and one hundred reported injured and clashes
80
00:04:32.759 --> 00:04:37.120
with security forces, all figures disputed by the country's government.
81
00:04:37.839 --> 00:04:40.360
What were the issues that brought people to the streets
82
00:04:40.439 --> 00:04:42.439
in the first place, Because I've seen a lot of
83
00:04:42.480 --> 00:04:47.920
signs written in Malagassy mostly, but signs that call for water,
84
00:04:48.360 --> 00:04:52.240
signs that call for electricity. What were people calling for?
85
00:04:53.199 --> 00:04:56.519
The reasons behind the protests are very genuine and very serious,
86
00:04:56.800 --> 00:05:00.319
and a lot of it has to do with social,
87
00:05:00.319 --> 00:05:03.519
economic development, which is that the youth feels like the
88
00:05:03.560 --> 00:05:08.199
government has not prioritized economic developments. There's not enough jobs
89
00:05:08.199 --> 00:05:12.399
for the young people. Infrastructure is poor and hasn't been
90
00:05:12.480 --> 00:05:16.399
developed sufficiently, especially outside the capital Antanana rival. But also
91
00:05:16.639 --> 00:05:21.399
there's a problem with service delivery, inefficiencies and states corporations,
92
00:05:21.399 --> 00:05:25.079
including the power utility, the water services, which is that
93
00:05:25.480 --> 00:05:29.000
access to water, access to electricity and other basic necessity
94
00:05:29.079 --> 00:05:32.720
is very very limited, especially when we go outside the capitol,
95
00:05:33.279 --> 00:05:36.680
and so you know, those are the primary concerns the
96
00:05:36.800 --> 00:05:39.079
of the youth. But also there's the fact that there's
97
00:05:39.079 --> 00:05:43.399
been more and more reports of police brutality and repression
98
00:05:43.439 --> 00:05:46.439
against the youth and the opposition and violence which have
99
00:05:46.920 --> 00:05:49.160
made you know, these sentiments match once.
100
00:05:49.480 --> 00:05:50.399
But also there's.
101
00:05:50.160 --> 00:05:53.720
Been more and more annotations of corruption against the Visualina region.
102
00:05:54.199 --> 00:05:56.040
They are corrupt, they are incompetent.
103
00:05:56.639 --> 00:06:00.639
Sorry, we gen Z are mobilizing of the old guard
104
00:06:00.720 --> 00:06:03.959
who are just lining their pockets make way for young people.
105
00:06:04.279 --> 00:06:06.399
Some of his online some of the business elits that
106
00:06:06.399 --> 00:06:11.079
he collaborates with having involved in huge corruption scandals and
107
00:06:11.199 --> 00:06:15.839
so of course the youth are claiming that this corruption
108
00:06:16.120 --> 00:06:19.759
and this illicit patronage systems networks are to blame for
109
00:06:20.120 --> 00:06:22.360
their conditions, for the poverty level and for the time
110
00:06:22.399 --> 00:06:26.920
that the government hasn't prioritized socioeconomic development. And so yeah,
111
00:06:26.920 --> 00:06:29.360
the concerns are very serious and very genuine.
112
00:06:31.160 --> 00:06:34.199
Okay, very serious concerns. Well, Rose, I know that you
113
00:06:34.360 --> 00:06:37.759
are based in Nairobi, Kenya, but you've been to Madagascar
114
00:06:37.879 --> 00:06:44.160
several times. So from your advantage point, what does it
115
00:06:44.240 --> 00:06:47.000
feel like? Can you feel those concerns in everyday life?
116
00:06:47.120 --> 00:06:49.959
The people needing electricity and not having enough of it
117
00:06:50.199 --> 00:06:52.759
to go about their daily lives, people needing water and
118
00:06:52.800 --> 00:06:55.040
not having enough of that? What does that actually feel
119
00:06:55.079 --> 00:06:55.680
like on the ground.
120
00:06:56.199 --> 00:07:01.399
What start out to me was the inequality in the country.
121
00:07:01.399 --> 00:07:04.079
Spell in London and Vere you see a five star
122
00:07:04.240 --> 00:07:08.279
hotel next to Islam, like yeah, sharing a wall. You'll
123
00:07:08.319 --> 00:07:12.439
see people begging on the street for food, and you know,
124
00:07:12.519 --> 00:07:14.839
five minutes later you see a very fancy car being
125
00:07:14.879 --> 00:07:17.600
driven by whether it's a businessman or a politician.
126
00:07:17.720 --> 00:07:19.680
And so these inequalities are.
127
00:07:19.600 --> 00:07:23.839
Very very apparent when when you're in Madagascar and you
128
00:07:23.879 --> 00:07:26.279
know the poverty levels, Ye're just there in your face.
129
00:07:26.279 --> 00:07:29.199
You can't ignore them. But in addition to this, poverty level.
130
00:07:29.240 --> 00:07:32.759
This is it needs who are living very luxurians lights
131
00:07:33.360 --> 00:07:36.600
and of course that's going to anger the youth in
132
00:07:36.639 --> 00:07:38.839
the same way has angered you, for example in Kenya
133
00:07:38.879 --> 00:07:40.759
and other other parts of the content.
134
00:07:42.319 --> 00:07:43.600
Yeah.
135
00:07:43.639 --> 00:07:49.199
Well, Madagascar's president has not officially resigned despite all of
136
00:07:49.199 --> 00:07:53.519
those grievances that people have, and in a video message
137
00:07:53.560 --> 00:07:56.560
from an undisclosed location, he said he had been forced
138
00:07:56.639 --> 00:07:59.959
fully because of a plot to
assassinate him at his palace.
139
00:08:00.720 --> 00:08:02.480
Maraamila vivis.
140
00:08:03.920 --> 00:08:07.920
A group of military personnel and politicians considered attempting to
141
00:08:07.959 --> 00:08:13.079
take my life.
142
00:08:13.680 --> 00:08:18.480
What can you tell us about this president who's currently
143
00:08:18.519 --> 00:08:20.240
on the run. What should we know about him?
144
00:08:20.800 --> 00:08:23.120
Well, I think the most important thing to know and
145
00:08:23.319 --> 00:08:25.839
this is basically kind of part of them. Why I
146
00:08:25.959 --> 00:08:27.759
was able to predict that this would happen is that
147
00:08:28.639 --> 00:08:31.439
Rangelina took power after coup in two thousand and nine.
148
00:08:32.399 --> 00:08:36.879
Born to a relatively wealthy family and privately educated Andredswell
149
00:08:36.960 --> 00:08:39.399
started his career as a DJ in the clubs and
150
00:08:39.480 --> 00:08:43.799
bars of Antanana, Rivo, the fresh faced politician, launched his
151
00:08:43.840 --> 00:08:48.279
political career after establishing himself as a successful advertising entrepreneur.
152
00:08:50.000 --> 00:08:52.559
He was put in power by business elease and all
153
00:08:52.559 --> 00:08:55.559
are these same people who he's fallen out with right now.
154
00:08:56.080 --> 00:08:59.559
How ironic is that for you as a political risk analyst?
155
00:09:00.000 --> 00:09:02.519
Do you watch these things as they unfold and you
156
00:09:02.600 --> 00:09:06.679
predict accurately In this case, that seems very ironic.
157
00:09:06.759 --> 00:09:09.279
Yeah, very very ironic, but also very.
158
00:09:11.279 --> 00:09:13.879
I believe that he knew that this was a possibility
159
00:09:13.879 --> 00:09:16.679
and he worked really really hard to prevent this, and
160
00:09:16.679 --> 00:09:18.240
that's part of the reason why he took a bit
161
00:09:18.240 --> 00:09:20.519
of an authoritarian turn in recent years.
162
00:09:20.559 --> 00:09:21.200
He really tried to.
163
00:09:21.240 --> 00:09:25.840
Consolidate power, tried to take control over some army units
164
00:09:26.039 --> 00:09:29.200
while appeasing these business elites, trying to manage that. But
165
00:09:29.200 --> 00:09:31.559
also he put in a lot of effort to re
166
00:09:31.639 --> 00:09:34.840
engage the international community after the co of two thousand
167
00:09:34.879 --> 00:09:37.399
and nine. For a very long time and Agasta was
168
00:09:37.440 --> 00:09:42.399
excluded from the international community. Donors start funding, multilateral institutions
169
00:09:42.399 --> 00:09:46.639
start funding, and so it was a very difficult time
170
00:09:46.639 --> 00:09:47.200
for the government.
171
00:09:47.480 --> 00:09:49.120
How they survived was by.
172
00:09:49.840 --> 00:09:54.639
Basically entrenching illicit patronage networks and sectorms such as mining, agriculture.
173
00:09:54.799 --> 00:09:57.840
So I meanly survived, but to the
very difficult situation.
174
00:09:57.919 --> 00:10:01.759
So when he came and became president. After winning the elections,
175
00:10:02.519 --> 00:10:06.759
he prioritized re engaging the international community, and of course
176
00:10:06.799 --> 00:10:12.879
he did this as a way to rebuild Madagascar's economy,
177
00:10:13.000 --> 00:10:16.440
but behind that was also the hope that by re
178
00:10:16.480 --> 00:10:19.639
engaging with the international community and gaining their support, that
179
00:10:19.679 --> 00:10:23.840
would give him enough legitimacy that would discourage his tractors
180
00:10:23.879 --> 00:10:26.720
from removing him as constitutionality. So that's one of the
181
00:10:26.759 --> 00:10:30.080
things that he was really really banking on, and you
182
00:10:30.120 --> 00:10:32.759
know things, of course, having turned out the way he hoped,
183
00:10:32.799 --> 00:10:33.360
he would.
184
00:10:35.120 --> 00:10:35.919
War with rows.
185
00:10:36.240 --> 00:10:42.279
After the break, a young woman killed a stranger in
186
00:10:42.360 --> 00:10:46.320
South Korea because of her obsession with true crime stories.
187
00:10:46.960 --> 00:10:50.879
Her curiosity for dark tales became a deadly impulse to
188
00:10:51.039 --> 00:10:55.240
try out one of her own. Is the media responsible?
189
00:10:56.120 --> 00:11:00.360
Does true crime harm more than it helps? You're the
190
00:11:00.360 --> 00:11:03.399
full story on true crime reports.
191
00:11:10.440 --> 00:11:15.039
Well Roase. Along with the protesters, there's another power player
192
00:11:15.279 --> 00:11:18.120
at the table. People who have been watching the protests
193
00:11:18.200 --> 00:11:20.879
unfold have said the movement seemed to reach this turning
194
00:11:20.919 --> 00:11:25.039
point over the weekend when this elite army unit known
195
00:11:25.039 --> 00:11:28.799
as CAPSAT became involved. Can you tell us about CAPSAT
196
00:11:28.879 --> 00:11:30.600
and what their role in this has been.
197
00:11:30.960 --> 00:11:33.639
Yeah, so Capside doesn't really have a frontline role in
198
00:11:33.679 --> 00:11:36.360
the army, but they are the most influential army unit
199
00:11:36.480 --> 00:11:41.279
because of their historical legitimacy, because like I said, in Madagascar,
200
00:11:41.600 --> 00:11:43.799
you know, the army is the most organized and has
201
00:11:43.799 --> 00:11:47.919
that legitimacy that they are basically allowed by the population
202
00:11:48.039 --> 00:11:50.080
to take over in case about crisis, which has been
203
00:11:50.120 --> 00:11:52.840
caps AT leading this in the previous schools that have happened,
204
00:11:53.279 --> 00:11:54.440
and so they are very influential.
205
00:11:54.519 --> 00:11:56.840
They have very close ties to business elites.
206
00:11:57.720 --> 00:11:59.879
In as much as we only do like the man
207
00:12:00.120 --> 00:12:03.120
genial and technical aspect of the army, they have a
208
00:12:03.159 --> 00:12:06.320
lot of influence and legitimacy. And so when they decide
209
00:12:06.399 --> 00:12:09.440
that we are signing with the protesters and Hagulina has
210
00:12:09.519 --> 00:12:14.279
to resign or has to go, then is that statement
211
00:12:14.320 --> 00:12:16.360
carries a lot of weight in the country because of
212
00:12:16.559 --> 00:12:18.519
what they have done in the past and how much
213
00:12:18.519 --> 00:12:19.279
influence they have.
214
00:12:20.639 --> 00:12:23.279
So talk to me about what it felt like for
215
00:12:23.360 --> 00:12:26.840
you to see that moment when the protesters are out
216
00:12:26.879 --> 00:12:29.240
on the streets and then cheers erupted because they began
217
00:12:29.320 --> 00:12:33.480
to see caps AT members join their ranks. It seemed
218
00:12:33.519 --> 00:12:36.200
like something had shifted, or at least something was going
219
00:12:36.240 --> 00:12:36.720
to shift.
220
00:12:36.960 --> 00:12:39.000
Well, I mean, if I'm being honest, I felt a
221
00:12:39.000 --> 00:12:43.440
bit sad for the protestants because I know how you know,
222
00:12:43.559 --> 00:12:46.480
how much bravery and resilience it takes to be able
223
00:12:46.519 --> 00:12:49.559
to do that kind of protests in Madagascar. But at
224
00:12:49.559 --> 00:12:52.519
the same time, based on what I know about the
225
00:12:52.720 --> 00:12:55.799
army and whose interests they are serving, I knew that
226
00:12:56.679 --> 00:13:00.320
the protesters, unfortunately, they're not going to.
227
00:13:00.080 --> 00:13:02.240
Get what they want. Even if the army takes over.
228
00:13:02.559 --> 00:13:05.440
The army will just replicate the same power structure and
229
00:13:05.440 --> 00:13:08.559
power dynamics, and Halina was just a different person than
230
00:13:08.600 --> 00:13:11.960
they trust more and so for the protesters, that was
231
00:13:12.000 --> 00:13:16.600
my first Thoughtlet is this really a win for the protesters.
232
00:13:16.639 --> 00:13:20.000
They're putting so much effort, and there's a lot of them,
233
00:13:20.000 --> 00:13:22.600
you know, suffered from the violence of the police and
234
00:13:22.639 --> 00:13:25.159
all that, and so my first thought was what a
235
00:13:25.200 --> 00:13:30.080
shame that the army has once again. I mean, they
236
00:13:30.159 --> 00:13:32.799
might be one intentional, who knows, but my fear is
237
00:13:32.799 --> 00:13:36.080
that this business at leits might choose their links to
238
00:13:36.120 --> 00:13:36.799
the army.
239
00:13:36.600 --> 00:13:38.320
To hijack basically the movement.
240
00:13:38.919 --> 00:13:41.320
And it reminds me of you know, places like Sudan
241
00:13:41.440 --> 00:13:42.799
and other places in the region.
242
00:13:44.480 --> 00:13:50.159
Yeah, well, a colonel from that elite unit, Colonel Mikhael
243
00:13:50.279 --> 00:13:53.559
randrian Arena, is sworn in as Madagascar as new president
244
00:13:54.039 --> 00:13:57.000
and he gave an interview to the Associated Press and
245
00:13:57.000 --> 00:13:59.879
what he talked about the country's next steps.
246
00:14:00.080 --> 00:14:05.440
In directors, we had to take responsibility yesterday because there
247
00:14:05.480 --> 00:14:09.559
is nothing left in the country, no president, no president
248
00:14:09.600 --> 00:14:14.799
in the Senate, no government. Madagascar is a dying country.
249
00:14:16.919 --> 00:14:24.720
We must take responsibility as citizens and patriots.
250
00:14:25.240 --> 00:14:27.000
What do we know about him anything?
251
00:14:27.320 --> 00:14:29.559
In twenty twenty three, he was arrested and accused of
252
00:14:29.559 --> 00:14:34.200
plotting a coup. My concern was that he was suspected
253
00:14:34.399 --> 00:14:37.399
of having of supporting the opposition basically at the time,
254
00:14:37.960 --> 00:14:39.840
and so that's one thing that I know about him.
255
00:14:39.840 --> 00:14:42.120
But I also know that he has very close links
256
00:14:42.120 --> 00:14:44.639
to some of the influential political and business lialits in
257
00:14:44.639 --> 00:14:46.799
the country and they were able to negotiate it for
258
00:14:46.840 --> 00:14:48.600
his quick release after that incident.
259
00:14:48.720 --> 00:14:49.120
I don't know.
260
00:14:49.159 --> 00:14:52.240
He's connected, and he's well connected, means he's not necessarily
261
00:14:52.320 --> 00:14:53.320
an outsider.
262
00:14:53.639 --> 00:14:55.720
He has connected He's definitely not an outsider.
263
00:14:55.840 --> 00:14:59.440
He has connections and yeah, he I might not know
264
00:14:59.480 --> 00:15:03.080
he personally, but I know him from the general political
265
00:15:03.759 --> 00:15:06.919
or the stakeholders in the army and people who have
266
00:15:07.240 --> 00:15:09.559
you know, intervened on his behalf.
267
00:15:11.240 --> 00:15:14.919
Well, okay, looking back at history, do you think that
268
00:15:14.960 --> 00:15:21.200
there is a sense that people can trust this government
269
00:15:21.720 --> 00:15:24.159
this time around, this new military government.
270
00:15:25.320 --> 00:15:27.759
Well, I think people are hopeful, of course, and I
271
00:15:27.759 --> 00:15:30.320
think it's a good thing that people are hopeful, because
272
00:15:30.320 --> 00:15:32.759
that's what we'll keep them going. And people are trying
273
00:15:32.799 --> 00:15:35.320
to wish for the best and trying to see the
274
00:15:35.320 --> 00:15:37.360
best in the arm because they do believe in the
275
00:15:37.480 --> 00:15:38.279
army to.
276
00:15:38.200 --> 00:15:39.000
A certain extent.
277
00:15:39.600 --> 00:15:44.039
But like I said, there's a fear, there's a likelihood
278
00:15:44.039 --> 00:15:47.799
that's the same and needs that put in power will
279
00:15:47.799 --> 00:15:51.000
lose their links to the military to visibly install someone
280
00:15:51.000 --> 00:15:55.000
else who will protect and entrench this illicit patronage systems.
281
00:15:55.399 --> 00:15:59.320
And I think, you know, the military leaders are aware
282
00:15:59.399 --> 00:16:01.679
of that this could happen. All that they are when
283
00:16:01.679 --> 00:16:06.000
that people might be worried about this, and they they've
284
00:16:06.279 --> 00:16:08.759
made some big promises. They promised to go after some
285
00:16:08.799 --> 00:16:12.600
of the corrupt businessmen and business it needs, and so
286
00:16:12.679 --> 00:16:14.480
it remains to be s another that we follow through
287
00:16:14.519 --> 00:16:16.919
with that. I think if they follow through with that,
288
00:16:16.919 --> 00:16:20.320
that would be a good sign, But otherwise my concern
289
00:16:20.399 --> 00:16:22.399
is actually just repeating the same cycle.
290
00:16:23.639 --> 00:16:27.200
Okay, well, thinking of cycles in a bid to not
291
00:16:27.399 --> 00:16:31.240
repeat them. I want to end here with a tiny
292
00:16:31.240 --> 00:16:34.240
bit of history, but using it to look forward, because
293
00:16:34.240 --> 00:16:37.279
Madagascar has been an independent country for sixty five years.
294
00:16:37.600 --> 00:16:40.919
Before it was a French colony, and before that it
295
00:16:40.960 --> 00:16:43.559
was home to many independent people groups, and it had
296
00:16:43.559 --> 00:16:46.960
a long history of trade. It's also now one of
297
00:16:47.000 --> 00:16:50.600
the poorest countries in the world. So when you think
298
00:16:50.639 --> 00:16:55.000
of Madagascar's history and how this movement turned military coup
299
00:16:55.399 --> 00:16:58.639
fits into that, do you have a lot of hope
300
00:16:58.720 --> 00:17:01.360
for what comes next? In your role as someone who
301
00:17:01.799 --> 00:17:05.880
looks at the risk and analyzes it and makes predictions.
302
00:17:06.400 --> 00:17:09.880
I'm very cautious right now because of what has happened
303
00:17:09.880 --> 00:17:11.680
in the past and because of what I know about
304
00:17:11.680 --> 00:17:15.359
the people who are leading some of the movements right now,
305
00:17:15.720 --> 00:17:18.039
and so when it comes to history, I think perhaps
306
00:17:18.039 --> 00:17:20.240
one of the biggest things that I think of is
307
00:17:20.319 --> 00:17:26.519
how much violent repression Madagascar faced under the French colonists,
308
00:17:26.720 --> 00:17:29.480
and how that has meant that today there's a lot
309
00:17:29.519 --> 00:17:32.640
of communities that, because of that are still discouraged or
310
00:17:32.720 --> 00:17:36.680
rather reluctant to participate in politics, especially outside the capitol,
311
00:17:37.119 --> 00:17:39.200
which gives politicians a lot of power.
312
00:17:39.839 --> 00:17:41.119
And you know, I also.
313
00:17:40.839 --> 00:17:44.960
Think of some of the you know, the complex ethnic
314
00:17:45.000 --> 00:17:48.119
context of Madagascar, which means that there's you know, the Marina,
315
00:17:48.319 --> 00:17:50.680
who make about twenty percent of the population and have
316
00:17:50.880 --> 00:17:54.440
primarily power around the capitol. The fact that they are
317
00:17:54.480 --> 00:17:59.680
not a majority, they have to rely on agreements usually
318
00:18:00.200 --> 00:18:02.920
based on convenience with leaders from the other communities, the
319
00:18:02.960 --> 00:18:06.119
other coastal communities, and how this has created a system
320
00:18:06.160 --> 00:18:12.000
where political alliances in Madagascar shaped quite rapidly. And the
321
00:18:12.000 --> 00:18:14.839
people who was a bordering gradual Lena two weeks ago,
322
00:18:14.920 --> 00:18:18.519
a lot of them have voted for his impeachment. And
323
00:18:19.119 --> 00:18:25.279
it's a very unstable, very unstable political system, very weak institutions,
324
00:18:25.920 --> 00:18:30.200
And for me, that's a big, big vulnerability. And in
325
00:18:30.279 --> 00:18:32.720
as much as I want to have hope, I'm concerned
326
00:18:32.720 --> 00:18:37.319
that because of these weak institutions, these informal players who
327
00:18:37.400 --> 00:18:40.200
might not have any official positions but have so much
328
00:18:40.240 --> 00:18:44.519
power based on their links or based on their ability
329
00:18:44.640 --> 00:18:48.960
to bring together different interests, and how those actors might
330
00:18:49.079 --> 00:18:53.839
hijack whatever movement people are trying to do to change things,
331
00:18:54.240 --> 00:18:56.279
and so yeah, and I want to be hopeful, but
332
00:18:57.119 --> 00:19:00.000
based on what I know, are more concerned and hopeful.
333
00:19:01.000 --> 00:19:05.480
M Well Rose, thank you for sharing what you know.
334
00:19:05.640 --> 00:19:08.240
We really appreciate your analysis here.
335
00:19:09.640 --> 00:19:12.279
Thank you for being on the take, Thank you for
336
00:19:12.279 --> 00:19:12.759
having me