บทถอดความฉบับเต็มของ Election Hangover: Can Soybeans Recover?

00:02:09.919 --> 00:02:13.120 And I know what's what's your your message on the Nasdaq? 00:02:13.360 --> 00:02:15.120 It was the one of the biggest ones ever, right? 00:02:15.280 --> 00:02:18.240 Yep, 1,421 point drop in the Nasdaq. 00:02:18.319 --> 00:02:22.000 That's the biggest point drop in a single day ever on the Nasdaq. 00:02:22.319 --> 00:02:25.360 Percentage-wise, it was down five and a half percent yesterday. 00:02:25.840 --> 00:02:31.840 Uh, top 10 would have been anywhere between 8.5% to like 12.5%, would have been the hardest top 10 days ever. 00:02:32.000 --> 00:02:36.560 Uh, pretty much what happened was Blue Wave came in, Blue Wave won. 00:02:36.719 --> 00:02:43.199 With that being the case, 40 out of the 41 local ballot measures voted against AI data centers. 00:02:43.439 --> 00:02:51.039 Uh, it looks like going forward, a lot of these data centers are gonna have delays, permitting's gonna be hard. 00:02:51.120 --> 00:02:56.319 It's just gonna get a lot more expensive for them to build these things and a lot harder and drug out. 00:02:56.400 --> 00:03:02.400 And with that being the case, that worried the Nasdaq and stock market yesterday specifically. 00:03:02.560 --> 00:03:03.759 That uncertainty. 00:03:04.000 --> 00:03:12.000 You know, when you talk about election impacts, it's not even so much the policies that are like all of a sudden, boom, like this is gonna happen. 00:03:12.159 --> 00:03:18.560 That's why fundamental will be pricing in more reaction post-elections or pre is just uncertainty. 00:03:18.719 --> 00:03:21.919 Well, of course, like because they aren't going to pass policy right away. 00:03:22.080 --> 00:03:33.599 No, at a at a federal level, yes, uh, like they aren't even gonna be in office till January, and then you're still going to have an a president that's been pretty vocal about nothing's gonna happen for basically two years. 00:03:33.919 --> 00:03:38.479 That dude's gonna go golfing for two years, correct, and it's gonna be a dead stop on everything. 00:03:38.719 --> 00:03:41.360 It'll be veto stamps and golf rounds for two years. 00:03:41.759 --> 00:03:46.240 Uh, and then after that, who knows what happens because we're having another election cycle. 00:03:46.479 --> 00:04:00.080 Now, you could say a few of these state elections, uh, like what Arizona's blue from Senator Raphouse, governor, uh, all the way through, which is like hardly ever happened. 00:04:00.159 --> 00:04:02.400 And you see some of the results in Texas. 00:04:02.560 --> 00:04:26.800 Again, probably every, I guess, the information I've read and the context we have in Texas, it's definitely a federal Democrat swing uh and a Democratic governor, but there is still a lot of red uh state offices uh uh in the Texas and a lot of these Midwest states that we that got a lot of attention because it was some of their first Democrats they've elected in a long time. 00:04:26.959 --> 00:04:37.759 So if you are building a data center in Texas, which of course was one of the big reasons why uh why a lot of the Democrats won, you still have that state uh support. 00:04:37.920 --> 00:04:43.120 I think now it's it's gonna be tough because you do have a opposing uh position governor. 00:04:43.360 --> 00:04:46.160 But again, I think what you're you said is correct. 00:04:46.319 --> 00:04:54.319 It's the overreaction right away that this is gonna take forever, we're gonna have more policies, we're gonna have uh permitting problems. 00:04:54.480 --> 00:04:56.959 Um, is it worth worth it anymore? 00:04:57.040 --> 00:05:00.319 Um should we just go build these in China or somewhere else? 00:05:00.560 --> 00:05:06.319 And that's where I guess the market thought was gonna look at and sunk the thing yesterday. 00:05:06.560 --> 00:05:07.360 Or the moon. 00:05:07.439 --> 00:05:08.160 Yep, the moon. 00:05:08.399 --> 00:05:13.040 We could be building these, and I say that ironically, I'm I'm not even lying. 00:05:13.120 --> 00:05:15.519 Like, that's getting talked about as crazy as that is. 00:05:15.839 --> 00:05:27.120 But I I do want to just touch on a couple other things with this election, like agricultural-wise, have you heard anything with policies, biofuels, um, farm programs? 00:05:27.279 --> 00:05:30.560 Like, what's this mean for our businesses going forward? 00:05:30.800 --> 00:05:32.240 It's a really good question. 00:05:32.399 --> 00:05:36.480 Uh, so um Minnesota soybean had a a call. 00:05:36.560 --> 00:05:43.519 Uh I'm on the governing board there, and just kind of some general thoughts, just in Minnesota, but this could apply everywhere. 00:05:43.680 --> 00:05:48.720 Uh, and then whether you're soybean, corn, pork, beef, not going to matter. 00:05:48.959 --> 00:05:57.680 What one of the challenges that you're gonna have in your states and at the federal level is you have a whole lot of new people in office. 00:05:57.920 --> 00:06:01.839 Sometimes that's good, new ideas, new people to meet. 00:06:02.000 --> 00:06:14.879 However, if you are trying to get policy support or or change the mindset, now you have a battle in front of you of just getting to know the candidate, know the person that's in office. 00:06:15.120 --> 00:06:20.240 Um, and so we talked just in Minnesota of the big turnover at the state. 00:06:20.399 --> 00:06:21.920 Um, it takes a while. 00:06:22.000 --> 00:06:29.439 Like normally we do one state visit, we're probably gonna have to do three uh visits to the to the capitol just to get to know these people. 00:06:29.600 --> 00:06:33.680 And so that like we know that's a problem or a hurdle, right? 00:06:33.839 --> 00:06:38.720 And so all of your organizations will be pushing that and and getting in front of these people. 00:06:38.879 --> 00:06:48.959 Um, the threat would be is if they come in with an agenda and try to get something pushed before they have time to get to know it's like how is this going to affect agriculture? 00:06:49.120 --> 00:06:51.120 So so that'd be the first

challenge. 00:06:51.439 --> 00:07:02.959 From a policy standpoint or dollars and cents wise, uh a blue government, uh democratic government, generally should be supportive to biofuels. 00:07:03.279 --> 00:07:09.839 Um, that all all of that uh language or or 45Z was brought up in the Biden administration. 00:07:09.920 --> 00:07:20.560 It did continue with Trump and actually kind of got a little easier to qualify for, but we should not lose support for the biofuel and should see some expansion there, which is good. 00:07:20.720 --> 00:07:26.480 Um, I think the sustainable aviation uh fuel actually gets back on the table in a bigger way. 00:07:26.720 --> 00:07:29.120 E15 push could happen. 00:07:29.199 --> 00:07:38.319 Uh so generally favorable for biofuels, and and I would say most policies are pretty favorable agriculture. 00:07:38.480 --> 00:07:45.279 Uh now the exception will be some of the environmental regulations and expansion on a livestock side might get a little more difficult. 00:07:45.519 --> 00:07:54.079 Of course, the bigger hurdle will be on the tax inheritance uh side of the equation, right? 00:07:54.160 --> 00:08:12.480 Like those are the things that um a lot of times when you have a Democratic controlled uh Congress, um, those are the things that affect agriculture, not necessarily day-to-day, but at the end of the year, a little less favorable than what we have in place now. 00:08:12.639 --> 00:08:14.480 So uh lots to come. 00:08:14.560 --> 00:08:17.360 Uh, but those are a couple of the hurdles to watch out for right away. 00:08:17.519 --> 00:08:38.799 First off, just getting to know the people, know the know the the new um members of Congress that'll be on, like the Senate A Committee, House A Committee, uh, that is is a pretty important step to protecting the uh items or protecting what we have in place now and also advancing the agenda forward. 00:08:38.879 --> 00:08:49.279 So I was curious on what this setup looks like on average for the markets going forward with the S P 500, just overall uh pure stock market. 00:08:49.679 --> 00:08:58.240 When you have a Republican president historically and a Democratic Congress, historically that's the worst returns in the stock market for the next two years you could have. 00:08:58.399 --> 00:09:01.360 Only 4.9% return on the SP 500. 00:09:01.679 --> 00:09:07.039 Your best returns typically happen with Democratic president and a split Congress. 00:09:07.200 --> 00:09:12.799 That's 17% Democratic president with a Republican Congress is even 16.3. 00:09:13.279 --> 00:09:21.600 So that just historically speaking, um, going back to 1953, that would be uh the setup for the stock market going forward. 00:09:21.759 --> 00:09:22.799 So I found that interesting. 00:09:22.879 --> 00:09:26.240 It's got talked about a little bit here over the past few days at least. 00:09:26.399 --> 00:09:43.519 But the big movers and shakers, and these were the items that they ran on to write, would be that when the

when the blue wave came through, a a big push for that was the Iran war basically was a huge part of it, just affordability and uh not following through on promises from the Republican side. 00:09:43.679 --> 00:09:49.519 So we'll see what they do with the Iran war going forward and uh whatever future that holds for us here. 00:09:49.600 --> 00:09:53.679 And the Strait of Hormuz and the Russia-Ukraine war, is there talk about peace talks? 00:09:53.840 --> 00:09:57.759 All that'll be probably the some of the bigger movers and shakers still. 00:09:58.000 --> 00:10:06.399 And I like on specifically on that front, I I think even Trump would recognize a little bit of well, this has become very not popular. 00:10:06.559 --> 00:10:08.879 And what is the end game here? 00:10:09.039 --> 00:10:23.360 It probably won't happen real soon, but it does feel like now we gotta push, like we gotta figure out we gotta get either pull out of here or let somebody else take care of this, which again, spinning it to agriculture, fuel prices should benefit everybody. 00:10:23.519 --> 00:10:24.639 Yep, for sure. 00:10:24.879 --> 00:10:29.360 When uh we look at a few of the other markets here, just it's been a rough go. 00:10:29.519 --> 00:10:39.919 The January soybeans, now the technical front month for the soybean markets as November futures are in delivery, 41 cents lower at the close this week from last week. 00:10:40.080 --> 00:10:43.919 So a really strong sell-off in the soybean markets throughout this week. 00:10:44.000 --> 00:10:46.559 And then corn, we were down about six cents. 00:10:46.799 --> 00:10:49.759 Uh I'll say not as big, but also at lows, right? 00:10:49.840 --> 00:10:56.559 So I mean uh you're at contract lows almost on corn, uh, not too far from the old low at 425 on D's, for example. 00:10:56.720 --> 00:11:09.279 So uh it's been a weak market, and I feel like the the election impacts, even right afterwards that night, when the SP popped at 1030 after the election, once the results came in, corn went right along with it. 00:11:09.440 --> 00:11:13.279 And yesterday, I feel like it was just a the blue wave brought a red wave. 00:11:13.360 --> 00:11:15.039 Like everything sold off yesterday. 00:11:15.120 --> 00:11:21.039 Yeah, I mean, it was a stock market, it was corn, it was hogs, it was cattle, it was just red everywhere. 00:11:21.279 --> 00:11:30.639 So um the market reaction to it from corn and soybeans perspective is one, we we had a Stonex report this week that showed massive yields in the U.S. 00:11:30.720 --> 00:11:32.639 as well for corn and soybeans. 00:11:32.799 --> 00:11:34.639 Fundamentally, it's not a great look. 00:11:34.799 --> 00:11:39.759 Crude oil started selling off pretty hard now, too, in the low 90s, even got under 90. 00:11:39.919 --> 00:11:43.679 Um, yeah, it really for these grain markets, they've just been under a lot of pressure. 00:11:43.840 --> 00:11:47.200 And you're looking for a catalyst to really give us some support. 00:11:47.360 --> 00:11:52.799 Otherwise, the funds have liquidated their long positions and they've slowed up some of the selling. 00:11:53.120 --> 00:11:56.080 Soybeans, there's quite a few longs that could get bailed out still. 00:11:56.240 --> 00:11:57.519 They're still long quite a bit. 00:11:57.759 --> 00:12:00.480 So maybe there's some further pressure further downside. 00:12:00.639 --> 00:12:05.279 That chart action, there's a lot bigger of a gap, I think, that you could try to take out here. 00:12:05.360 --> 00:12:12.080 So and I think you're right, they're looking for a catalyst, but you're looking for a catalyst at some pretty hard times to find one, right? 00:12:12.399 --> 00:12:15.440 Because the Stone X comes out and yields are even higher. 00:12:15.600 --> 00:12:28.240 Um, I I would say the general trend, and we'll talk about harvest results here in a minute, but the general trend has been kind of better than I thought in a lot of areas for corn and and especially soybeans. 00:12:28.399 --> 00:12:30.639 Um, so you you're you're put under pressure there. 00:12:30.799 --> 00:12:36.240 Oil didn't fare very well after the election, which is going to pull down uh corn and beans too. 00:12:36.399 --> 00:12:42.720 Um, like there's just a lot of things weighing on the market, and there's nothing really to turn it uh around. 00:12:42.879 --> 00:12:46.320 And the election, uh, how is it affect corn and bean price? 00:12:46.399 --> 00:12:50.080 Well, again, biofuels should offer some long-term support. 00:12:50.320 --> 00:12:51.600 Exports, like we should. 00:12:51.679 --> 00:13:00.320 I would think tariffs would be harder uh to get, it should come off the table more readily eventually, uh, with the election results. 00:13:00.399 --> 00:13:06.799 So that should be supportive as well, but not enough of a catalyst immediately to start anything uh going the other way. 00:13:06.960 --> 00:13:10.399 It's raining, like as we started off, it's raining all over the place. 00:13:10.559 --> 00:13:14.159 The the drought monitor is getting better every single week. 00:13:14.399 --> 00:13:24.240 And we always had this thought of the strong El Nino should be tough on Brazil and South America, and so far that hasn't really come true at all either. 00:13:24.399 --> 00:13:32.960 So that like you said, Mike, that's trying to find a catalyst to spark something, and boy, it's been hard to find in the corn and soybean market. 00:13:33.120 --> 00:13:37.360 So there's three big catalysts that the market is looking for today. 00:13:37.600 --> 00:13:49.600 The the first one is the obvious inflation hedge, like if the Iran war is gonna stay around and they need to be long commodities, corn still has an okay balance sheet, global balance sheets are still tight, so the inflation plays still there. 00:13:49.759 --> 00:13:51.440 That's what they're looking for and part of it. 00:13:51.519 --> 00:13:53.039 The second thing would be China buying. 00:13:53.200 -->

00:13:55.679 I think this is a big one this week and next week. 00:13:55.919 --> 00:14:00.080 This week, what we saw was China has been sniffing around wheat. 00:14:00.399 --> 00:14:07.039 They came out here and they said now they are agreeing to a$600 million purchase in wheat and sorghum. 00:14:07.759 --> 00:14:11.759 The market was expecting it, but they were expecting, I think, flash sales. 00:14:11.840 --> 00:14:13.360 And we didn't get the flash sales. 00:14:13.759 --> 00:14:20.320 So I feel like today, other than Russia-Ukraine peace talks advancing, that hurt the wheat market. 00:14:20.399 --> 00:14:25.360 But I think they're also a little disappointed that, like, ah, the we heard rumblings China was gonna buy wheat. 00:14:25.519 --> 00:14:27.200 I was hoping for some actual sales. 00:14:27.600 --> 00:14:29.440 And you just kind of agreed to a purchase agreement. 00:14:29.600 --> 00:14:35.279 It's like, what about the 10 billion other dollars worth of egg products you said you were gonna buy that you haven't yet for this year? 00:14:35.440 --> 00:14:37.519 And kind of running out of time on that, too. 00:14:37.919 --> 00:14:38.159 Sure. 00:14:38.320 --> 00:14:40.799 The third thing's just Waz Day next week, Tuesday. 00:14:40.960 --> 00:14:41.519 Who knows? 00:14:41.759 --> 00:14:43.360 We're expecting bigger yields. 00:14:43.440 --> 00:14:51.840 Uh, demand's been pretty good for the most part here still across most of these egg commodities on the corn and soybean sides, biofuel. 00:14:52.000 --> 00:14:54.399 So we'll see if something there could get spiced up. 00:14:54.639 --> 00:15:03.759 The X factor, kind of the like uh honorable mention in this, I would feel like, other than those three, would be the one you brought up with South America weather, just Brazil. 00:15:03.919 --> 00:15:07.600 We're in their weather time frame here in December, January, and we should see something there. 00:15:07.679 --> 00:15:13.279 So yeah, you're gonna have to see something on the South American weather in the next two months, or yeah, we're not gonna get it. 00:15:13.440 --> 00:15:22.080 When we talk about the harvest wrap-up quick, just on progress there, what can you tell me about just overall input on what you've heard across the corn belt? 00:15:22.320 --> 00:15:22.480 Yep. 00:15:22.639 --> 00:15:33.679 So, you know, talking to a lot of customers this week, uh, you know, we set the harvest price on our crop insurance here the the beginning of the week, 475 on corn, uh 1263 on soybeans. 00:15:33.759 --> 00:15:36.480 And so a lot of guys have been reporting production in. 00:15:36.639 --> 00:15:53.759 And I would say the general trend, Mike, is our little pocket where we sit in Laverne, uh, and kind of the circle of counties around us uh had a tough year, but it was it's a little bit of well, I don't know where this corn came from because we only had nine inches of rain. 00:15:54.000 --> 00:15:55.279 Yields are okay. 00:15:55.440 --> 00:15:57.840 Um,

and soybeans was the same way. 00:15:58.000 --> 00:16:06.000 You get outside of that, and Southeast South Dakota's got some areas that are struggling and actually struggling to get the crop out. 00:16:06.080 --> 00:16:12.960 There's a pretty good pocket down south of Sioux Falls where uh there's quite a bit of crop standing and some wet soils. 00:16:13.200 --> 00:16:21.120 But as we talked earlier, for the most part, everybody's kind of that 15% left uh of the crop if they aren't wrapped up already. 00:16:21.200 --> 00:16:24.080 And so you get out of that area, the yields were a lot better, right? 00:16:24.320 --> 00:16:27.279 You go north in Minnesota, uh yields are crazy. 00:16:27.360 --> 00:16:39.519 A lot of people saying record yields, um, you know, working with some customers, Marshall area uh north and and east of there towards Redwood Falls, uh, record yields, uh, corn and soybeans. 00:16:39.679 --> 00:16:43.120 Um, you know, northern, northeast South Dakota, same thing. 00:16:43.200 --> 00:16:46.879 Uh record yields, uh, kind of that Brookings area north. 00:16:47.039 --> 00:16:48.960 Um, it real surprising. 00:16:49.039 --> 00:16:52.799 Then you go south of here, Iowa's again pretty good. 00:16:52.960 --> 00:16:58.559 I would say Iowa uh might not be as good as what they thought on the corn yields. 00:16:58.639 --> 00:17:00.080 Um, just a few customers. 00:17:00.240 --> 00:17:03.519 Beans were really good, corn's good, right? 00:17:03.600 --> 00:17:07.279 And but good corn in Iowa is is really high yields anyway. 00:17:07.440 --> 00:17:12.160 So uh yeah, generally yields are probably better than what we originally thought. 00:17:12.240 --> 00:17:20.240 Uh we are in a little pocket of a lower area, but for the most part, uh a lot of our customer base had some pretty good corn soybean yields this year. 00:17:20.480 --> 00:17:28.720 Regardless of what I think the national corn yield is, I really like to talk about what the market's pricing in today. 00:17:28.799 --> 00:17:37.200 And I would argue fundamentally when we look at stocks to use ratio versus price today, I think they're at least pricing in a 182 or higher. 00:17:37.359 --> 00:17:43.839 The corn market is right now, using the futures price, where they're at, the way they've acted, the stone ox number. 00:17:44.000 --> 00:17:49.119 I think the I know the average trade guess is supposed to drop on Tuesday actually in yield. 00:17:49.279 --> 00:17:53.279 I feel like the market's using a 182 or higher today on price. 00:17:53.440 --> 00:17:55.279 So that I think will be interesting. 00:17:55.599 --> 00:17:59.359 You probably don't, even at like a 178 national corn yield. 00:17:59.440 --> 00:18:03.200 I mean, that usually suggests like a$5 corn price on March futures. 00:18:03.519 --> 00:18:11.440 So that's a window I've been talking about with people, like five and a half to five bucks here, kind of any given yield scenario, depending on how we play out here. 00:18:11.680 --> 00:18:17.920 And I think you could make a case, a fantastic case, anywhere for yield to end up somewhere between those two numbers. 00:18:18.160 --> 00:18:18.559 Sure. 00:18:18.799 --> 00:18:24.000 And I uh I don't I have a hard time believing the USDA is gonna move too much more from where they're at. 00:18:24.160 --> 00:18:24.799 I think you're right. 00:18:24.880 --> 00:18:35.680 Like I and and as we get you know further into harvest and get these some of these numbers in, uh going down much just doesn't seem no seem like it's gonna happen. 00:18:35.759 --> 00:18:44.559 I I mean I I know there's tough areas, other places of the country, but boy, we thought we were in a pretty tough area, and that area is pretty big, and it's kind of proven us wrong. 00:18:44.880 --> 00:18:49.519 Today alone, I think I got asked a lot about ARC PLC. 00:18:49.680 --> 00:18:51.119 What opinions do you have? 00:18:51.359 --> 00:18:55.599 Let's uh let's give our listeners a quick recap of the things they should be focused on. 00:18:55.839 --> 00:18:56.079 Yep. 00:18:56.160 --> 00:18:59.519 All right, so uh been getting that question a lot too, Mike. 00:18:59.599 --> 00:19:07.440 So you have till December 11th uh to sign out that that's the deadline to sign up for 2026 ARC PLC decisions. 00:19:07.519 --> 00:19:11.200 Okay, so we're just going reviewing the timeline a little bit here. 00:19:11.440 --> 00:19:21.680 Uh, most farmers uh about the end of October got a deposit from USDA for their 2025 uh ARC PLC decision. 00:19:21.920 --> 00:19:23.680 Nice little bonus for the Christmas fund. 00:19:23.920 --> 00:19:24.240 Correct. 00:19:24.319 --> 00:19:27.359 And most people got paid uh on PLC. 00:19:27.519 --> 00:19:33.599 Some counties did get paid ARC, but that money you saw show up in October was from 2025. 00:19:33.759 --> 00:19:41.359 Now we are signing up for 2026, which of course is the crop you just harvested or are harvesting uh currently. 00:19:41.599 --> 00:19:45.599 When we're harvesting a crop, uh that really helps our decision, right? 00:19:45.839 --> 00:19:52.079 So um one thing that I would uh uh I guess looking at, we'll split it out by crop a little bit. 00:19:52.400 --> 00:19:54.559 Uh soybeans is an easy one. 00:19:54.720 --> 00:19:58.960 Art County is the clear winner on on what you should sign up for. 00:19:59.119 --> 00:19:59.759 Is this still true? 00:19:59.920 --> 00:20:02.240 PLC is never paid on soybeans. 00:20:02.559 --> 00:20:08.319 Yep, and the reason for that is so like soybeans, uh the the price was 1071. 00:20:08.480 --> 00:20:11.839 That is the reference price uh for PLC to pay. 00:20:11.920 --> 00:20:16.079 Uh currently, uh I think the market year average price is averaging$12. 00:20:16.400 --> 00:20:21.599 Now that'll come down because that's been moved up a lot, wasn't it like low nines before this? 00:20:21.839 --> 00:20:23.839 Well, yeah, going back to last year, yes. 00:20:24.160 --> 00:20:24.640 Yeah, yeah. 00:20:24.720 -->

00:20:28.480 Or yeah, before that it was down at$840 before it was changed. 00:20:28.640 --> 00:20:32.960 So uh 1071 is a lot better, but currently we are a lot higher than that. 00:20:33.119 --> 00:20:45.039 So definitely want to go to Arc County, uh, where we carry a higher guaranteed or a higher price, but we also have it's a county revenue coverage, it's yield and price. 00:20:45.200 --> 00:20:56.480 And so if you are in a county like in southwest Minnesota, southeast South Dakota, where yields are somewhat variable, uh, great option because our Arc County benchmark yields are pretty high. 00:20:56.640 --> 00:20:58.480 Uh, you're gonna want to sign up for Arc County. 00:20:59.200 --> 00:21:04.319 Corn, uh, I think Arc County is kind of the default choice for corn as well. 00:21:04.480 --> 00:21:15.759 Again, if you're in this part of the of Minnesota, South Dakota, you're gonna want to sign up for our county because yields uh are could be lower than our benchmark, so that you're gonna benefit from that within our county. 00:21:15.920 --> 00:21:19.039 Um PLC reference price is 442. 00:21:19.119 --> 00:21:21.119 We're currently tracking at 470. 00:21:21.279 --> 00:21:22.559 Again, that will come down. 00:21:22.640 --> 00:21:23.039 We know that. 00:21:23.440 --> 00:21:25.680 But you got an average of that the whole year, correct. 00:21:25.759 --> 00:21:27.680 And and that'll go through uh August. 00:21:28.079 --> 00:21:31.440 So we we have a long tail on this price action. 00:21:31.519 --> 00:21:35.359 Yet uh I just I have to make a decision by December 11th. 00:21:35.599 --> 00:21:42.799 The thing I know is our yields were were okay to good, and my price is above 442. 00:21:43.039 --> 00:21:45.680 With those two things, I'm signing up for our county. 00:21:45.839 --> 00:21:49.519 If you do have wheat, wheat is the one I'd probably sign up for PLC. 00:21:49.680 --> 00:21:51.599 Uh wheat yields were pretty good. 00:21:51.759 --> 00:21:56.240 Uh, I mean, talking mainly west and north of here, and the price isn't great. 00:21:56.400 --> 00:22:00.960 So that's where uh plc has a reference price of$635. 00:22:01.279 --> 00:22:05.920 Um, so that's where I would sign up for PLC if I did have any wheat base acres. 00:22:06.240 --> 00:22:12.240 The last item I didn't want to talk about on this though is uh ARC individual coverage. 00:22:12.400 --> 00:22:20.799 Okay, so if you have maybe you're in one of these areas that were really crappy, sandy piece on its own in a county or something. 00:22:21.039 --> 00:22:22.240 And that's the main thing, right? 00:22:22.319 --> 00:22:37.519 So so low yields, probably like 50% of APH type low yields, and that farm, you only had one crop on it, and it was a standalone farm number, meaning so when you go sign up for these, you sign up by farm number at FSA. 00:22:37.920 --> 00:22:45.599 If that was the only piece in that farm number and you had it on one crop, uh ARC individual would be a good option for you. 00:22:45.920 --> 00:22:48.960 For most of our producers, they are not in that situation. 00:22:49.200 --> 00:22:53.839 Arc County is going to be the best choice for our corn and beans, PLC on the wheat. 00:22:54.079 --> 00:22:56.720 Having said all that, what are we looking at for payments? 00:22:56.799 --> 00:23:06.160 If yields are kind of average in your area and prices stay, you know, where they're at or slightly lower, we're not looking at as large of payments as we saw last year. 00:23:06.319 --> 00:23:11.680 Uh okay, potentially uh looking at a five to twenty dollar an acre payment. 00:23:11.759 --> 00:23:17.200 Now, if you're in a county with some pretty tough yields, that's what you could bump it up to 50, 60 bucks. 00:23:17.359 --> 00:23:20.799 But we'll figure all of that out uh in June of next year. 00:23:21.039 --> 00:23:21.440 All right. 00:23:21.599 --> 00:23:22.880 Well, thank you for your time today. 00:23:22.960 --> 00:23:24.000 I appreciate it, Lucas. 00:23:24.160 --> 00:23:28.240 Uh, please click the link in the description to get our daily market commentary list. 00:23:28.319 --> 00:23:30.000 Click the subscribe button to help us out. 00:23:30.160 --> 00:23:33.599 Hit our goal to thousand subscribers for the end of the year. 00:23:33.759 --> 00:23:37.039 Also, make sure to check out our daily market commentary. 00:23:37.119 --> 00:23:38.720 Uh, we've got some really cool stuff. 00:23:38.799 --> 00:23:42.480 Uh, we've got a cool new morning podcast with Nathan Lair. 00:23:42.799 --> 00:23:46.640 Uh, we've got uh the open opening look, that's gonna be a fun one. 00:23:46.720 --> 00:23:49.200 Uh, daily five minutes of just market action. 00:23:49.279 --> 00:23:54.640 It's gonna be breaking news, more of a news focused podcast to start off your day the right way. 00:23:54.880 --> 00:23:55.680 Thanks, everyone. 00:23:55.759 --> 00:23:58.079 Have a plea please have a great weekend.