บทถอดความฉบับเต็มของ Israel’s Options, Plus Navalny’s Legacy and Ranking the US Presidents, with Dan Senor | GoodFellows: John H. Cochrane, Niall Ferguson, H.R. McMaster, and Bill Whalen | Hoover Institution

of 68 00:04:24,708 --> 00:04:28,743 the government, including members of the war cabinet, are bitter political enemies. 69 00:04:28,743 --> 00:04:32,792 Netanyahu and Gantz basically hate each other personally. 70 00:04:32,792 --> 00:04:36,265 Gadi Eisenkat, who's a part of Gantz's party, which is, 71 00:04:36,265 --> 00:04:41,048 he's in the war cabinet, also has been very public in his criticism of Netanyahu. 72 00:04:41,048 --> 00:04:45,569 And yet on the issues that Niall just spoke about, there's more or less unity. 73 00:04:45,569 --> 00:04:50,149 I went there in these meetings I had in Israel looking for daylight. 74 00:04:50,149 --> 00:04:54,344 And if you follow the press over here in the west, you're going there expecting 75 00:04:54,344 --> 00:04:57,551 there to be a lot of daylight, and there's virtually none. 76 00:04:57,551 --> 00:05:01,629 So take, for example, the issue of the two state solution and 77 00:05:01,629 --> 00:05:06,493 this effort by the US and the UN and some Arab capitals in the EU to try to push 78 00:05:06,493 --> 00:05:11,377 forward a very quick declaration or recognition of a Palestinian state. 79 00:05:11,377 --> 00:05:15,648 The Israeli cabinet put out a statement on Sunday during their cabinet meeting that 80 00:05:15,648 --> 00:05:19,920 every member of the cabinet signed off on, including Gantz, including Eisenka, 81 00:05:19,920 --> 00:05:21,522 that basically said, no way. 82 00:05:21,522 --> 00:05:27,137 We are not starting this process with a declaration of a Palestinian state. 83 00:05:27,137 --> 00:05:30,485 We are not gonna make, they didn't use these words, these are my words, but 84 00:05:30,485 --> 00:05:32,970 we're not going to make October 7, Independence Day. 85 00:05:32,970 --> 00:05:35,582 And that position is held across the board. 86 00:05:35,582 --> 00:05:39,919 And then you think about the political constituencies that could be for 87 00:05:39,919 --> 00:05:44,487 a Palestinian state in Israel, which did once exist and was very vibrant. 88 00:05:44,487 --> 00:05:51,231 A lot of it was wiped out figuratively during the second intifada. 89 00:05:51,231 --> 00:05:55,583 So, meaning the left in Israel was dramatically weakened during the second 90 00:05:55,583 --> 00:05:57,555 intifada in the early 2000s, 91 00:05:57,555 --> 00:06:02,187 when there were 140 suicide bombings over a thousand Israelis slaughtered. 92 00:06:02,187 --> 00:06:05,306 And this was after Ehud Barak had went to Camp David and 93 00:06:05,306 --> 00:06:08,576 basically offered Yasser Arafat everything, right? 94 00:06:08,576 --> 00:06:09,812 He offered a Palestinian state. 95 00:06:09,812 --> 00:06:11,361 He offered East Jerusalem as the capital. 96 00:06:11,361 --> 00:06:13,054 I mean, he was willing to deal with every issue. 97 00:06:13,054 --> 00:06:16,956 And Arafat walked out, and Israel got the second intifada. 98 00:06:16,956 --> 00:06:22,193 So that wiped out a lot of the political support for a two state solution. 99 00:06:22,193 --> 00:06:27,316 And now what was left within the Israeli political left in the last 100 00:06:27,316 --> 00:06:33,012 few years was largely populated in southern Israel in those kibbutzim. 101 00:06:33,012 --> 00:06:36,679 That is where the peace activists lived and were organizing and 102 00:06:36,679 --> 00:06:40,153 were working on coexistence with the Palestinian Gazans. 103 00:06:40,153 --> 00:06:44,913 And those are the people who are sitting in tunnels today being held hostage. 104 00:06:44,913 --> 00:06:49,866 Those kibbutzim were the ones that were raided in 2014, which was the last 105 00:06:49,866 --> 00:06:54,670 time there was a major Israel Gaza war with a serious ground troop presence, 106 00:06:54,670 --> 00:06:56,268 lasted about 50 days. 107 00:06:56,268 --> 00:07:01,278 It was those Israelis in the south that led the protest movement inside Israel, 108 00:07:01,278 --> 00:07:05,166 calling on the israeli government to stop the war because they 109 00:07:05,166 --> 00:07:09,073 wanted peaceful coexistence with the Palestinians in Gaza. 110 00:07:09,073 --> 00:07:12,941 And those are the Israelis that were slaughtered on October 7, 111 00:07:12,941 --> 00:07:15,385 and their communities were destroyed. 112 00:07:15,385 --> 00:07:19,629 And many of them are being held hostage today. 113 00:07:19,629 --> 00:07:22,929 There's nobody in Israel right now. 114 00:07:22,929 --> 00:07:27,372 Nobody really, like, on any of the fringes, nowhere can you find people 115 00:07:27,372 --> 00:07:31,762 that are arguing that this is the moment to declare a Palestinian state. 116 00:07:31,762 --> 00:07:34,964 >> John H. Cochrane: May I ask you guys, and what about in Washington? 117 00:07:34,964 --> 00:07:39,056 It's hard for me to understand what our leaders are after here when they say two 118 00:07:39,056 --> 00:07:39,987 state solution. 119 00:07:39,987 --> 00:07:43,293 I would think the first part of the two state solution is, 120 00:07:43,293 --> 00:07:47,363 you guys who want your state, you have to recognize Israel's right to exist 121 00:07:47,363 --> 00:07:49,537 as a jewish state within given borders. 122 00:07:49,537 --> 00:07:56,695 And to be peaceful about that, that has to be institutional, encoded in an way. 123 00:07:56,695 --> 00:07:59,756 Or is it just here, Palestinian people. 124 00:07:59,756 --> 00:08:03,330 PLO, the one organization everybody hates, right, to consider. 125 00:08:03,330 --> 00:08:05,577 Here, you go to your own country, and 126 00:08:05,577 --> 00:08:08,584 the route to importing the rockets is over here. 127 00:08:08,584 --> 00:08:13,284 So what are they talking about when they say Palestinian 128 00:08:13,284 --> 00:08:17,685 state in Washington, in Saudi Arabia and so forth? 129 00:08:17,685 --> 00:08:21,896 [COUGH] I presume there's something more concrete than just that. 130 00:08:21,896 --> 00:08:24,932 And second, does nobody think aloud? 131 00:08:24,932 --> 00:08:27,717

There's a lot of people around the world who want their own state. 132 00:08:27,717 --> 00:08:30,179 [COUGH] The Kurds would like their own state. 133 00:08:30,179 --> 00:08:31,689 The would like their own state. 134 00:08:31,689 --> 00:08:35,669 So the answer is you get your own state, if you kill enough Jews, 135 00:08:35,669 --> 00:08:37,378 we reward terrorism here? 136 00:08:37,378 --> 00:08:40,413 I can't imagine that that hasn't occurred to them. 137 00:08:40,413 --> 00:08:45,341 So the question, sorry to wind around the question, in Washington, in Saudi Arabia, 138 00:08:45,341 --> 00:08:49,312 in the UN, in all the worthy [INAUDIBLE], what are they talking about? 139 00:08:49,312 --> 00:08:51,792 And is there anything vaguely coherent here? 140 00:08:51,792 --> 00:08:54,194 >> Dan Senor: Neil, you wanna take it or should I? 141 00:08:54,194 --> 00:08:56,662 >> Niall Ferguson: Dan, I think you should go ahead, 142 00:08:56,662 --> 00:09:00,154 because this is much more your turf than mine. 143 00:09:00,154 --> 00:09:05,101 >> Dan Senor: So I don't think they really know what they mean when they say 144 00:09:05,101 --> 00:09:07,026 Palestinian state. 145 00:09:07,026 --> 00:09:11,240 I think different parties here have different views in mind, I think, 146 00:09:11,240 --> 00:09:12,727 and different agendas. 147 00:09:12,727 --> 00:09:19,309 I think the Biden administration has a domestic political concern, which is, 148 00:09:19,309 --> 00:09:25,203 they need to get images of chaos in Gaza off the front page of the press and 149 00:09:25,203 --> 00:09:31,611 off of TikTok, and they need to be shown, in their mind, this is their view. 150 00:09:31,611 --> 00:09:35,995 I'm not saying I agree with them, but in their view, the people around Biden 151 00:09:35,995 --> 00:09:39,569 need to bring down the temperature on the Palestinian issue and 152 00:09:39,569 --> 00:09:43,498 on the Hamas war issue inside the United States heading to 2024. 153 00:09:43,498 --> 00:09:46,446 Because they're concerned about the risk. 154 00:09:46,446 --> 00:09:48,416 They're concerned about, shall we say, 155 00:09:48,416 --> 00:09:50,812 deflated enthusiasm among the progressive base. 156 00:09:50,812 --> 00:09:55,041 And somehow this issue has become representative to them of an issue that 157 00:09:55,041 --> 00:09:59,128 they need to deal with in order to deal with the lack of enthusiasm among 158 00:09:59,128 --> 00:10:02,588 the progressive base as Biden heads into a reelection. 159 00:10:02,588 --> 00:10:04,004 We can get into that. 160 00:10:04,004 --> 00:10:06,349 I think they are overthinking it. 161 00:10:06,349 --> 00:10:10,145 I'm skeptical that them dealing with the Israel-Gaza issue is going to deal with 162 00:10:10,145 --> 00:10:12,372 their progressive base enthusiasm problem. 163 00:10:12,372 --> 00:10:15,764 But be that as it may, there's enough people around Biden saying that. 164 00:10:15,764 --> 00:10:21,533 And there are enough players in Arab capitals who they want two things, John. 165 00:10:21,533 --> 00:10:24,292 They want Hamas destroyed. 166 00:10:24,292 --> 00:10:29,664 Everybody I speak to in the Arab world, really, they all want Hamas gone. 167 00:10:31,284 --> 00:10:34,365 And they also don't want this to be a political headache for them in their 168 00:10:34,365 --> 00:10:37,769 own countries to the extent it's a problem on the quote unquote, Arab street. 169 00:10:37,769 --> 00:10:39,305 So they want Hamas gone. 170 00:10:39,305 --> 00:10:46,008 They want Israel to finish the job, but they wanna be seen to be throwing a bone, 171 00:10:46,008 --> 00:10:51,513 providing something positive to the peaceful, quote unquote, 172 00:10:51,513 --> 00:10:57,942 Palestinian civilians, that have been as victimized by Hamas as anybody. 173 00:10:57,942 --> 00:10:58,570 That is their view. 174 00:10:58,570 --> 00:11:00,964 They need to show some momentum on that front. 175 00:11:00,964 --> 00:11:04,284 What does that actually mean, practically? 176 00:11:04,284 --> 00:11:09,385 It means what is emerging is some sort of declaration that 177 00:11:09,385 --> 00:11:15,354 there is going to be a Palestinian state in Tony Blinken's words. 178 00:11:15,354 --> 00:11:19,081 A time bound and irreversible, his words, which to me are the two of the most 179 00:11:19,081 --> 00:11:23,099 dangerous words I've heard in talking about a Palestinian state, time bound and 180 00:11:23,099 --> 00:11:23,988 irreversible. 181 00:11:23,988 --> 00:11:29,246 Now, keep in mind, that language has never been used before by the US government. 182 00:11:29,246 --> 00:11:33,376 The basis for negotiations that could lead to a Palestinian state have 183 00:11:33,376 --> 00:11:37,583 always been about the parties negotiating with one another directly. 184 00:11:37,583 --> 00:11:41,491 Israelis and Palestinians, without preconditions, just get to the table and 185 00:11:41,491 --> 00:11:42,140 negotiate. 186 00:11:42,140 --> 00:11:44,836 And it's not time-bound and irreversible. 187 00:11:44,836 --> 00:11:46,592 It's absolutely reversible. 188 00:11:46,592 --> 00:11:51,658 Meaning if Hamas or Hamas 2.0 takes over the political leadership 189 00:11:51,658 --> 00:11:56,672 of a quasi Palestinian state, you bet the process is reversible. 190 00:11:56,672 --> 00:12:00,872 So the fact that Blinken used the word the irreversible to me is quite alarming. 191 00:12:00,872 --> 00:12:05,485 And in the past, historically, it's always been milestone-based, 192 00:12:05,485 --> 00:12:07,689 meaning this is the path we are on. 193 00:12:07,689 --> 00:12:10,242 If the Palestinians meet certain milestones, 194 00:12:10,242 --> 00:12:14,133 then they will get more and more instruments and assets of sovereignty, 195 00:12:14,133 --> 00:12:16,130 on a path towards full sovereignty. 196 00:12:16,130 --> 00:12:17,511 I don't think would ever be full sovereignty. 197 00:12:17,511 --> 00:12:21,214 Meaning, I don't think anyone wants

a future Palestinian state to have its own 198 00:12:21,214 --> 00:12:24,426 military or its own airport or jurisdiction over its own airspace. 199 00:12:24,426 --> 00:12:29,354 But basically any path to sovereignty is gonna have to be milestone-based. 200 00:12:29,354 --> 00:12:32,042 That's how it's historically been talked about. 201 00:12:32,042 --> 00:12:35,647 I'm surprised, as I said, in, to some degree alarmed by how the administration 202 00:12:35,647 --> 00:12:37,226 is not talking about milestones. 203 00:12:37,226 --> 00:12:40,360 They're talking about making a move quickly and 204 00:12:40,360 --> 00:12:43,193 immediately towards a Palestinian state. 205 00:12:43,193 --> 00:12:44,763 I don't know what that means. 206 00:12:44,763 --> 00:12:47,923 I don't think there's any political leadership in any Palestinian 207 00:12:47,923 --> 00:12:50,706 faction ready to take on the upper leadership of the state. 208 00:12:50,706 --> 00:12:53,823 So I think it's sort of like an empty declaration. 209 00:12:53,823 --> 00:12:56,951 It's like, it's just they wanna be able to say, the administration and 210 00:12:56,951 --> 00:12:59,475 the governments in the Arab capitals wants to be able to tell 211 00:12:59,475 --> 00:13:01,393 all the respective constituencies, look, 212 00:13:01,393 --> 00:13:04,238 we're doing something we've done something never done before. 213 00:13:04,238 --> 00:13:06,326 We're declaring and recognizing a Palestinian state, 214 00:13:06,326 --> 00:13:07,440 that's never done before. 215 00:13:07,440 --> 00:13:08,728 We're not sure what that means. 216 00:13:08,728 --> 00:13:11,016 We're not sure who's gonna lead it. 217 00:13:11,016 --> 00:13:16,343 We're not sure what the path is, but it's happening and it's irreversible. 218 00:13:16,343 --> 00:13:18,720 The spaceship has taken off. 219 00:13:18,720 --> 00:13:21,424 They want that message. 220 00:13:21,424 --> 00:13:24,379 And again, to my earlier point, John, I just think, 221 00:13:24,379 --> 00:13:28,824 first of all, I don't think that's what Hamas wants, so we can get into that. 222 00:13:28,824 --> 00:13:33,125 But I just think the message to the Palestinian people and 223 00:13:33,125 --> 00:13:37,424 to the broader Arab world, is a very dangerous message, 224 00:13:37,424 --> 00:13:43,264 to say the west has never recognized a Palestinian state, ever. 225 00:13:43,264 --> 00:13:47,267 October 7th happens, the biggest massacre of Jews in a single day since 226 00:13:47,267 --> 00:13:50,430 the Holocaust, a nd now we declare a Palestinian state. 227 00:13:50,430 --> 00:13:51,834 >> John H. Cochrane: And there was a previous vision, 228 00:13:51,834 --> 00:13:53,939 the Abraham Accord vision, at least, which is, 229 00:13:53,939 --> 00:13:55,757 why don't we get you guys to be rich first? 230 00:13:55,757 --> 00:14:00,128 Get prosperous, make a lot of money, and then we can talk about political stuff 231 00:14:00,128 --> 00:14:04,190 afterwards, which as an economist, always struck me like a great idea. 232 00:14:04,190 --> 00:14:06,691 >> Bill Whalen: Yeah, I'd like to point you gentlemen to two dates on 233 00:14:06,691 --> 00:14:07,419 the calendar. 234 00:14:07,419 --> 00:14:09,869 One is Sunday the February 26. 235 00:14:09,869 --> 00:14:11,092 This is Vladimir Putin. 236 00:14:11,092 --> 00:14:15,085 We're gonna talk about Putin in the second segment of the show, inviting leaders of 237 00:14:15,085 --> 00:14:18,984 Hamas and PLO to Moscow for what he called a, quote, inter Palestinian meeting. 238 00:14:18,984 --> 00:14:21,070 Neil, you are a criminologist on the show. 239 00:14:21,070 --> 00:14:21,852 I'm dubbing you as that. 240 00:14:21,852 --> 00:14:25,724 And I'd like you to maybe get some thoughts on what you think Putin's up to. 241 00:14:25,724 --> 00:14:27,663 Then, Dan, I'd like you to weigh in on Rafah. 242 00:14:27,663 --> 00:14:32,231 We had Netanyahu the other day saying that Israel will assault that city. 243 00:14:32,231 --> 00:14:33,800 This is the southernmost city in Gaza. 244 00:14:33,800 --> 00:14:35,969 It's a population of about a million and a half people, 245 00:14:35,969 --> 00:14:37,595 which is about the size of Philadelphia. 246 00:14:37,595 --> 00:14:41,856 Anyway, Netanyahu has said that if the hostages aren't freed by the first day of 247 00:14:41,856 --> 00:14:45,191 Ramadan, which is Sunday, March 10, Israel's going in. 248 00:14:45,191 --> 00:14:49,903 So, Neil, why don't you give us some thoughts on Putin and then Dan, Rafah. 249 00:14:49,903 --> 00:14:52,792 And Rafah, is it really, Dan, I've seen the phrase key flash point? 250 00:14:52,792 --> 00:14:54,536 Is it really a key flash point, this word? 251 00:14:54,536 --> 00:14:55,716 Neil, you go for first. 252 00:14:55,716 --> 00:14:57,536 >> Niall Ferguson: Well, before I came to Jerusalem, 253 00:14:57,536 --> 00:14:59,660 I was at the Munich Security Conference, 254 00:14:59,660 --> 00:15:03,121 which should really be renamed the Munich Insecurity Conference, 255 00:15:03,121 --> 00:15:06,924 in which Europeans couldn't decide what they were more worried about. 256 00:15:06,924 --> 00:15:10,053 Was it Vladimir Putin gaining ground in Ukraine, or 257 00:15:10,053 --> 00:15:13,444 was it Donald Trump gaining ground in US opinion polls? 258 00:15:13,444 --> 00:15:15,564 But worried they were. 259 00:15:15,564 --> 00:15:18,749 And one of my reasons for being there was to try and 260 00:15:18,749 --> 00:15:21,624 explain, especially to our German hosts, 261 00:15:21,624 --> 00:15:26,845 why they needed to spend a little bit more than 1.5% of GDP on their defense. 262 00:15:26,845 --> 00:15:31,465 And they needed to do it not just because Russia is in Ukraine, and 263 00:15:31,465 --> 00:15:35,837 not just because Donald Trump might be reelected president. 264 00:15:35,837 --> 00:15:40,936 They ought to do it, actually, for their own economic as well as national security. 265 00:15:40,936 --> 00:15:45,871

Good, now, what I tried to argue was that you can't view the conflicts 266 00:15:45,871 --> 00:15:48,608 in Ukraine and Israel in isolation. 267 00:15:48,608 --> 00:15:52,055 They're part of a bigger geopolitical picture. 268 00:15:52,055 --> 00:15:56,066 And in that picture, as we've discussed on Good Fellows before, 269 00:15:56,066 --> 00:16:01,150 there's a kind of axis of ill will behind Russia stands China, Without Chinese dual 270 00:16:01,150 --> 00:16:06,615 use technology, the Russian war economy would have grown to a halt some time ago. 271 00:16:06,615 --> 00:16:12,575 Alongside Russia as a supplier of drones and other equipment is Iran. 272 00:16:12,575 --> 00:16:17,845 Russia is a player in the Middle east, has been since Barack Obama let them 273 00:16:17,845 --> 00:16:23,031 back in at the time of the Syrian red line crisis and bringing up the rear, 274 00:16:23,031 --> 00:16:29,005 last but not least, is North Korea also a source of weapons for the Russians. 275 00:16:29,005 --> 00:16:32,407 The tendency at the Munich security conference is to have a panel over there 276 00:16:32,407 --> 00:16:36,293 about Ukraine and a panel over there about the Middle east and not to join the dots. 277 00:16:36,293 --> 00:16:41,253 One person who did join the dots, incidentally, was former secretary of 278 00:16:41,253 --> 00:16:46,382 State Mike Pompeo, who gave a barnstorming speech I heard in which he said. 279 00:16:46,382 --> 00:16:48,692 Rather more forcefully than me, 280 00:16:48,692 --> 00:16:53,885 that we had to deal with these threats as one, as a single global threat. 281 00:16:53,885 --> 00:16:58,482 And if we saw it that way, we would realize that it would be folly to let 282 00:16:58,482 --> 00:17:02,985 Russia win in Ukraine and folly to let Iran win in the Middle east. 283 00:17:02,985 --> 00:17:08,934 And Iran wins in the Middle east, if Hamas survives, Iran wins, 284 00:17:08,934 --> 00:17:16,425 if a Palestinian state looks like a concession to terrorist action, Iran wins. 285 00:17:16,425 --> 00:17:22,329 If the Houthis continue to disrupt trade in the Red Sea, Iran wins. 286 00:17:22,329 --> 00:17:26,194 If Hezbollah is poised on Israel's northern border with 287 00:17:26,194 --> 00:17:30,617 a far larger arsenal than Hamas has ever possessed, Iran wins. 288 00:17:30,617 --> 00:17:35,957 If militias in Syria and Iraq are also converging on the scene. 289 00:17:35,957 --> 00:17:40,892 And so I do think it's extremely important to notice these 290 00:17:40,892 --> 00:17:45,928 connections when Putin invites, as you just said, Bill, 291 00:17:45,928 --> 00:17:51,166 Hamas and other leaders, and other organizations leaders, 292 00:17:51,166 --> 00:17:54,725 Islamic Jihad, too, to Moscow. 293 00:17:54,725 --> 00:18:00,398 It's not so that they can watch the Tucker Carlson interview together and 294 00:18:00,398 --> 00:18:01,755 swap stories. 295 00:18:01,755 --> 00:18:06,381 This is part of a coordinated effort to undermine democracy and 296 00:18:06,381 --> 00:18:11,235 more broadly, the Pax Americana, that's what's happening. 297 00:18:11,235 --> 00:18:14,872 And I'm kind of glad that Putin is so averse about it because 298 00:18:14,872 --> 00:18:19,099 it makes it easier to persuade people these things are connected. 299 00:18:19,099 --> 00:18:24,001 And however you may feel about the plight of the Palestinians in Gaza, and 300 00:18:24,001 --> 00:18:26,768 no doubt we should all feel compassion for 301 00:18:26,768 --> 00:18:30,895 those Palestinians who have nothing but loathing for Hamas. 302 00:18:30,895 --> 00:18:35,171 And who are now in the midst of a war zone that Hamas created. 303 00:18:35,171 --> 00:18:37,842 Nevertheless, you have to understand, 304 00:18:37,842 --> 00:18:42,515 Israel must defeat Hamas as surely as Ukraine must not lose to Russia. 305 00:18:42,515 --> 00:18:45,634 This is a global challenge we confront, and 306 00:18:45,634 --> 00:18:51,785 it extends all the way to the South China Sea, to the Philippines, to Taiwan. 307 00:18:51,785 --> 00:18:53,065 >> Bill Whalen: Dan, Rafa. 308 00:18:53,065 --> 00:18:57,744 >> Dan Senor: Yeah, so I'd say two things just on Neil's point I mean, 309 00:18:57,744 --> 00:19:01,862 if you think about who Putin is inviting to Moscow. 310 00:19:01,862 --> 00:19:06,255 The idea that any of these factions could one day populate the leadership 311 00:19:06,255 --> 00:19:10,226 of a Palestinian state is so preposterous, so start with Hamas. 312 00:19:10,226 --> 00:19:14,277 Where Yahya Sinwar has been saying since October 7 that there are more 313 00:19:14,277 --> 00:19:16,425 October sevenths to follow. 314 00:19:16,425 --> 00:19:19,093 So it's not like he's been jostled in any way, 315 00:19:19,093 --> 00:19:22,897 at least in his public statements, he says he would do it again. 316 00:19:22,897 --> 00:19:26,682 You have Khaled Mashaal, who's one of the leaders of the political wing of 317 00:19:26,682 --> 00:19:29,564 Hamas outside of Gaza, who two weeks ago was in Turkey and 318 00:19:29,564 --> 00:19:32,877 gave an interview, and he was asked about a two state solution. 319 00:19:32,877 --> 00:19:36,271 And he said there's no two state solution, he says it's a one state solution, 320 00:19:36,271 --> 00:19:39,253 meaning the Palestinians, Hamas will be in charge of the one state. 321 00:19:39,253 --> 00:19:42,768 And that one state, to quote Khaled Mashaal, was from Russia, 322 00:19:42,768 --> 00:19:47,129 necro, up in Israel's north all the way to a lot in the south, and, of course, 323 00:19:47,129 --> 00:19:48,613 from the river to the sea. 324 00:19:48,613 --> 00:19:51,724 So he wanted to be clear, he wasn't just talking about river to the sea, 325 00:19:51,724 --> 00:19:55,329 he was also talking from north to south, one state solution, so that's Hamas. 326 00:19:55,329 --> 00:19:57,760 Then you have the Palestinian Authority, obviously, 327 00:19:57,760 --> 00:20:01,145 Palestinian Islamic jihad

is another version of Hamas, so same version. 328 00:20:01,145 --> 00:20:06,917 Then you have Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian Authority in the West bank, 329 00:20:06,917 --> 00:20:10,123 in Ramallah, which has yet, by the way, 330 00:20:10,123 --> 00:20:14,613 yet to condemn what happened on October 7, repeatedly, 331 00:20:14,613 --> 00:20:20,432 repeatedly cajoled and consulted and has refused to condemn October 7. 332 00:20:20,432 --> 00:20:22,195 The Palestinian Authority, 333 00:20:22,195 --> 00:20:26,422 which still has in place its policies to monetarily reward anyone who, 334 00:20:26,422 --> 00:20:31,793 any Palestinian who attempts Palestinian violence, terrorist violence against Jews. 335 00:20:31,793 --> 00:20:35,598 They name, still name streets out of terrorists, they still provide monetary 336 00:20:35,598 --> 00:20:39,640 war to families of terrorists who die in service of jihad, of slaughtering Jews. 337 00:20:39,640 --> 00:20:43,829 This is the look at the textbooks in the schools in the West bank, 338 00:20:43,829 --> 00:20:47,795 they're full of indoctrination, of Jew hatred. 339 00:20:47,795 --> 00:20:50,024 So there's no sign that the, by the way, 340 00:20:50,024 --> 00:20:53,787 when I speak to officials in Gulf countries and Sunni Gulf countries, 341 00:20:53,787 --> 00:20:58,019 they also say that Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian Authority is hopeless. 342 00:20:58,019 --> 00:21:01,838 There's no way that they could be the leaders of a future joint Palestinian 343 00:21:01,838 --> 00:21:03,731 state, so who are these factions? 344 00:21:03,731 --> 00:21:07,621 I have yet to hear of a single player being invited to Moscow that is actually 345 00:21:07,621 --> 00:21:11,883 a real reformer that is willing to do the kinds of things that Neil's talking about 346 00:21:11,883 --> 00:21:15,769 in representing those palestinian civilians that want some normalcy. 347 00:21:15,769 --> 00:21:19,232 And so I, I do think in that sense, it's clarifying, and 348 00:21:19,232 --> 00:21:23,475 I think our friends in the Biden administration who feel pressured to do 349 00:21:23,475 --> 00:21:26,106 something on the Palestinian state front. 350 00:21:26,106 --> 00:21:31,825 It is clarifying to say these are the characters who are being gathered by Oba, 351 00:21:31,825 --> 00:21:36,679 by Vladimir Putin, who you are rightly obsessed with, and just, 352 00:21:36,679 --> 00:21:42,741 it's clarifying about whose side, which players on in terms of Rafa, this war. 353 00:21:42,741 --> 00:21:47,197 Neil is right that the Israeli leadership is extremely focused on finishing this war 354 00:21:47,197 --> 00:21:48,133 and ending it. 355 00:21:48,133 --> 00:21:51,998 And they can't finish it without going to Rafa, 356 00:21:51,998 --> 00:21:56,902 they just can't, there's close to 20 Hamas battalions, 357 00:21:56,902 --> 00:22:01,853 according to the Israeli leaders, that have been wiped out. 358 00:22:01,853 --> 00:22:03,486 There's still a few

more, 359 00:22:03,486 --> 00:22:07,604 and they can't wipe them out unless they get to Rafa unfortunately, 360 00:22:07,604 --> 00:22:12,835 there's well over a million Palestinian civilians currently concentrated in Rafa. 361 00:22:12,835 --> 00:22:16,599 The, everyone's putting pressure on Israel to figure out some kind of 362 00:22:16,599 --> 00:22:19,361 humanitarian corridor to get these Palestinians or 363 00:22:19,361 --> 00:22:22,523 a bunch of them out of the area and get them up to North Gaza. 364 00:22:22,523 --> 00:22:27,473 That is hard to do logistically, Israel's trying to do it, the risk, obviously, when 365 00:22:27,473 --> 00:22:31,643 you do that is a lot of bad actors will get out of Rafa and get up to the north. 366 00:22:31,643 --> 00:22:37,219 So how Israel does this in a way that doesn't have bad, Hamas, remnants of Hamas 367 00:22:37,219 --> 00:22:42,549 sneaking up and getting safe haven up in the north, in the northeast of Gaza, 368 00:22:42,549 --> 00:22:47,390 back on Israel's, back on Gaza's border with Israel is difficult. 369 00:22:47,390 --> 00:22:55,125 So I think this Rafa situation is going to be ugly, and it is necessary. 370 00:22:55,125 --> 00:22:59,483 And exactly what Neil said, the Israeli leadership that keeps saying we are going 371 00:22:59,483 --> 00:23:03,779 into Rafa is important not only because they probably do have to go into Rafa, but 372 00:23:03,779 --> 00:23:06,215 it's also sending a message. 373 00:23:06,215 --> 00:23:07,667 The international community and 374 00:23:07,667 --> 00:23:11,039 pressure from the international community has been unleashed on Israel. 375 00:23:11,039 --> 00:23:15,692 Every part of it, the EU, the UN, the media, the NGO's, the, I mean, 376 00:23:15,692 --> 00:23:20,049 just, obviously now, increasingly, the Biden administration, 377 00:23:20,049 --> 00:23:24,191 they're all pressuring Israel, saying, you cannot do Rafa. 378 00:23:24,191 --> 00:23:28,023 And Israel is saying, were doing Rafa, and I think that sends a very 379 00:23:28,023 --> 00:23:31,235 important message to Sinwar and the people around him. 380 00:23:31,235 --> 00:23:35,809 Like, we believed we could catalyze a massive international response 381 00:23:35,809 --> 00:23:40,731 after October 7 that would put pressure on Israel to show some restraint. 382 00:23:40,731 --> 00:23:44,251 We knew they'd have to respond in some way, but to have to show some restraint. 383 00:23:44,251 --> 00:23:47,345 And this, and the Israeli leadership saying, no, we're going, 384 00:23:47,345 --> 00:23:49,405 we're even going if we have to go in Ramadan, 385 00:23:49,405 --> 00:23:52,738 is sending a message that you're unleashing everything on us, right. 386 00:23:52,738 --> 00:23:57,435 You're sending genocide cases to the ICJ, you're I mean, you're throwing everything 387 00:23:57,435 --> 00:24:00,646 at us and we're still going That is a very important message, 388 00:24:00,646 --> 00:24:04,723 not only to the Hamas leadership, it's also an important message to all those 389 00:24:04,723 --> 00:24:06,902 regional actors that Neil talks about. 390 00:24:06,902 --> 00:24:11,797 And I just wanna say early on in this war, there was a big debate about whether 391 00:24:11,797 --> 00:24:15,870 Israel should move quickly to negotiations for the hostages. 392 00:24:15,870 --> 00:24:19,336 And defense Minister Yoav Gallant, 393 00:24:19,336 --> 00:24:25,596 argued very strongly that Israel would do best on negotiations for 394 00:24:25,596 --> 00:24:31,090 hostages if they move aggressively militarily quickly. 395 00:24:31,090 --> 00:24:35,488 That is to say, Israel's negotiating position to the extent that they have 396 00:24:35,488 --> 00:24:38,854 one will be strengthened by a strong military response and 397 00:24:38,854 --> 00:24:42,015 will be strengthened by Hamas believing that Israel is 398 00:24:42,015 --> 00:24:46,658 willing to do whatever it has to do to wipe out Hamas and get the hostages back. 399 00:24:46,658 --> 00:24:49,642 And he believes he's vindicated a lot. 400 00:24:49,642 --> 00:24:51,026 He has said this publicly. 401 00:24:51,026 --> 00:24:54,349 He believes that the deal that he got on the first round, 402 00:24:54,349 --> 00:24:57,885 which most on the Israeli side believe on that first round of 403 00:24:57,885 --> 00:25:00,642 hostages released was a good deal for Israel, 404 00:25:00,642 --> 00:25:05,451 was made possible because Israel moved so aggressively on the military front and 405 00:25:05,451 --> 00:25:10,568 convincing the people around Sinwar that Israel was willing to move aggressively. 406 00:25:10,568 --> 00:25:15,427 And I think that the statements you're hearing them articulate on 407 00:25:15,427 --> 00:25:17,780 Rafa are of that same strategy. 408 00:25:19,470 --> 00:25:22,892 >> John H. Cochrane: The north's end of Gaza seems like a terrible place to spend 409 00:25:22,892 --> 00:25:25,902 six months while Israel flames out the south end. 410 00:25:25,902 --> 00:25:27,918 The obvious place to go is Egypt. 411 00:25:27,918 --> 00:25:31,698 And it's interesting that the Arab states who say they wanna get rid of Hamas and 412 00:25:31,698 --> 00:25:35,814 say they care about the palestinian people will nonetheless not let a single one in. 413 00:25:35,814 --> 00:25:38,078 I saw a picture of the border wall that Egypt. 414 00:25:38,078 --> 00:25:39,358 >> Dan Senor: It's amazing what they're building. 415 00:25:39,358 --> 00:25:42,139 It would be like Donald Trump's dream >> Bill Whalen: [LAUGH] 416 00:25:42,139 --> 00:25:42,959 >> John H. Cochrane: To have a border 417 00:25:42,959 --> 00:25:43,998 wall like that. 418 00:25:43,998 --> 00:25:46,030 But yet a little bit of pressure from the US. 419 00:25:46,030 --> 00:25:49,092 Okay, you care about Palestinians, let them have a place. 420 00:25:49,092 --> 00:25:55,117 Obviously, we know this game they are playing, the game of deliberately 421 00:25:55,117 -->

00:26:00,468 increased Palestinian suffering as a weapon against Israel. 422 00:26:00,468 --> 00:26:02,972 I wanna ask you the economic question, though. 423 00:26:02,972 --> 00:26:09,092 How long can Israel hold out if this will go on for months more? 424 00:26:09,092 --> 00:26:14,084 You got every country in the world, including the US, now giving up on them. 425 00:26:14,084 --> 00:26:18,336 You wrote a book on the Israeli economy prosecuting war as there's more and 426 00:26:18,336 --> 00:26:22,723 more sanctions, more and more, whatever comes from the rest of the world and 427 00:26:22,723 --> 00:26:26,420 perhaps the second front, it's gonna be hard for Israel. 428 00:26:26,420 --> 00:26:27,620 How do they do it? 429 00:26:27,620 --> 00:26:31,994 >> Dan Senor: So just on your first point, it is true and I agree with you John, 430 00:26:31,994 --> 00:26:36,612 I'm amazed that there has not been more focus on the lengths Egypt is 431 00:26:36,612 --> 00:26:40,732 going to prevent any suffering Gazans into their country. 432 00:26:40,732 --> 00:26:45,510 The reason they're doing it is not only cuz they want to prolong the suffering, 433 00:26:45,510 --> 00:26:47,570 but I think the more paramount. 434 00:26:47,570 --> 00:26:51,810 The overriding motivation is they don't want these people in their country. 435 00:26:51,810 --> 00:26:53,770 That's what it's about. 436 00:26:53,770 --> 00:26:57,964 I mean, I spoke to an American official who was involved with getting out 437 00:26:57,964 --> 00:26:59,698 American-Palestinians. 438 00:26:59,698 --> 00:27:02,874 So American citizens who are Palestinian that live in Gaza. 439 00:27:02,874 --> 00:27:06,520 And when the war began October 7rh, the US government was focused. 440 00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:11,222 This got less attention, but the American government was focused on getting out 441 00:27:11,222 --> 00:27:14,139 these American citizens who were living in Gaza. 442 00:27:14,139 --> 00:27:17,856 And he described to me how the Egyptian government was so 443 00:27:17,856 --> 00:27:22,378 nervous about any Palestinian leaving Gaza and coming into Egypt. 444 00:27:22,378 --> 00:27:26,828 That if the American government wanted to get out a US citizen that was Palestinian 445 00:27:26,828 --> 00:27:31,086 living Gaza, the US government had to provide its own personnel to personally 446 00:27:31,086 --> 00:27:35,278 escort that person not only through the border, but once they're in Egypt, 447 00:27:35,278 --> 00:27:39,148 that American officials had to man the person in Egypt until they're in 448 00:27:39,148 --> 00:27:41,220 the airport and on the plane and out. 449 00:27:41,220 --> 00:27:44,980 So it's like they do not want these people in their country. 450 00:27:44,980 --> 00:27:50,619 The idea that Israel gets these accusations of, quote unquote apartheid, 451 00:27:50,619 --> 00:27:55,554 if this really is their concern, Egypt could solve this overnight 452 00:27:55,554 --> 00:28:00,048 if they were willing to take in some Palestinian refugees. 453 00:28:00,048 --> 00:28:03,269 On the economic front, the worrying news is, 454 00:28:03,269 --> 00:28:06,632 I'm not worried about Israel's tech sector. 455 00:28:06,632 --> 00:28:08,520 Let me start with that. 456 00:28:08,520 --> 00:28:14,206 There's about 400 plus multinationals with major operations in Israel, 457 00:28:14,206 --> 00:28:19,630 and it's all the big companies, Google, Meta, Intel, Apple, and also 458 00:28:19,630 --> 00:28:26,050 a lot of non tech companies like Procter and Gamble and the major auto companies. 459 00:28:26,050 --> 00:28:31,858 400 plus major multinational companies have very expansive operations in Israel. 460 00:28:31,858 --> 00:28:37,130 Not a single one of them has announced they're shutting down since October 7th. 461 00:28:37,130 --> 00:28:39,534 So I think that speaks to the deep tech and 462 00:28:39,534 --> 00:28:43,538 the deep innovation that there are d centers in Israel are doing. 463 00:28:43,538 --> 00:28:46,078 You don't just unplug that quickly. 464 00:28:46,078 --> 00:28:48,494 So the good news is they are staying. 465 00:28:48,494 --> 00:28:49,990 They seem to be sticking it out. 466 00:28:49,990 --> 00:28:52,590 And some of them made very strong statements about why they're 467 00:28:52,590 --> 00:28:53,502 sticking it out. 468 00:28:53,502 --> 00:28:54,534 Venture capital. 469 00:28:54,534 --> 00:28:58,765 Israel tracks more global venture capital globally on a per capita basis in any 470 00:28:58,765 --> 00:29:00,070 country in the world. 471 00:29:00,070 --> 00:29:02,830 Obviously it's down, but it's also down globally. 472 00:29:02,830 --> 00:29:07,625 So it's hard to disentangle what's a secular trend in terms of global venture 473 00:29:07,625 --> 00:29:12,203 capital fundraising, in terms of what's going on in tech globally versus 474 00:29:12,203 --> 00:29:15,360 what's happening in Israel, and it's war. 475 00:29:15,360 --> 00:29:20,074 The downside that I'm more focused on is just the simple reality for 476 00:29:20,074 --> 00:29:25,698 the last four months, somewhere between 10 to 30% of the senior executives 477 00:29:25,698 --> 00:29:31,024 of most tech companies in Israel have been called up to fight in reserves. 478 00:29:31,024 --> 00:29:35,934 And there's just the reality that that head of business development that was 479 00:29:35,934 --> 00:29:40,391 working on closing a deal with an American company or some marketing, 480 00:29:40,391 --> 00:29:41,988 theyre just not there. 481 00:29:41,988 --> 00:29:44,587 Theyre gone for four months and theyre fighting, and 482 00:29:44,587 --> 00:29:46,316 stuff falls through the cracks. 483 00:29:46,316 --> 00:29:50,820 And that segment of the economy, which is the engine of the economy, takes a hit. 484 00:29:50,820 --> 00:29:51,628 Thats inevitable. 485 00:29:51,628 --> 00:29:56,659 Now, partly because of the economic pressure, the reserves are coming back, 486 00:29:56,659 -->

00:30:00,060 meaning theyre being reintegrated into society. 487 00:30:00,060 --> 00:30:02,452 So most of the fighting are in the near term, and that could change. 488 00:30:02,452 --> 00:30:06,006 But most of the fighting in the near term is gonna be the regular army and 489 00:30:06,006 --> 00:30:07,140 not the reservists. 490 00:30:07,140 --> 00:30:13,020 So hopefully that pressure on the tech companies is going to go down. 491 00:30:13,020 --> 00:30:16,438 We'll see though, cuz there could be other fronts that open up, 492 00:30:16,438 --> 00:30:18,052 Neil talked about the north. 493 00:30:18,052 --> 00:30:21,336 I mean, there's other stuff that could happen where Israel could be back in it 494 00:30:21,336 --> 00:30:24,500 again, having to call up hundreds of thousands of reservists. 495 00:30:24,500 --> 00:30:31,140 I think, and this is not me trying to look at this through rosy eyed lenses. 496 00:30:31,140 --> 00:30:35,829 I will say when I wrote startup nation, we looked at Salha and I looked at 497 00:30:35,829 --> 00:30:41,146 the history of the 91 Gulf war where Saddam Hussein was launching Scud missiles 498 00:30:41,146 --> 00:30:46,386 into Israel that the Israelis believed could be laced with chemical weapons and 499 00:30:46,386 --> 00:30:51,404 the whole economy shut down and everyone was in gas masks and sealed rooms. 500 00:30:51,404 --> 00:30:56,514 And the tech innovation and the interdisciplinary skills, 501 00:30:56,514 --> 00:31:01,724 and the initiative taking mindset that came out of that period 502 00:31:01,724 --> 00:31:06,376 helped fuel a tech boom for the next couple of decades. 503 00:31:06,376 --> 00:31:10,720 It's not by accident that international investors view Israeli entrepreneurs as 504 00:31:10,720 --> 00:31:12,104 the most resourceful. 505 00:31:12,104 --> 00:31:13,380 They are unique. 506 00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:19,000 Mine and Neil's mutual friend Eric Schmidt told me when he was at Google. 507 00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:23,282 He said, if you take the average Israeli 25 year old and you put him or 508 00:31:23,282 --> 00:31:27,709 her up against their peers anywhere in the world, he told me at the time, 509 00:31:27,709 --> 00:31:30,312 this was in around 2008, 2009. 510 00:31:30,312 --> 00:31:35,132 Google will hire the Israeli 25 year old any day of the week because they just 511 00:31:35,132 --> 00:31:38,767 have a level of maturity and interdisciplinary skills and 512 00:31:38,767 --> 00:31:43,515 leadership during pressure and crisis management skills that no young tech 513 00:31:43,515 --> 00:31:46,182 executives have anywhere in the world. 514 00:31:46,182 --> 00:31:49,918 He says Google will hire the Israeli over anyone else any day. 515 00:31:49,918 --> 00:31:51,421 There's just no comparison. 516 00:31:51,421 --> 00:31:54,227 So if you think about what these tech executives that are being called up 517 00:31:54,227 --> 00:31:57,125 are dealing with now, many of them are in their thirties and forties, and 518 00:31:57,125 --> 00:31:59,589 now they're going back to their tech companies, and I just. 519 00:31:59,589 --> 00:32:02,157 Think, I wouldn't wish this upon any of them. 520 00:32:02,157 --> 00:32:05,052 But the reality is, many of them are. 521 00:32:05,052 --> 00:32:08,570 You're gonna see a whole other level of maturing and crisis management skills. 522 00:32:08,570 --> 00:32:11,370 And so, I think ultimately the long run the Israeli tech economy is 523 00:32:11,370 --> 00:32:12,125 going to be fine. 524 00:32:12,125 --> 00:32:18,396 My bigger question is Israel's military industrial base. 525 00:32:18,396 --> 00:32:23,256 I think that one wake up call for Israel, these last few months, 526 00:32:23,256 --> 00:32:29,395 is how dependent it is on the US, for munitions and other defense capabilities. 527 00:32:29,395 --> 00:32:32,306 And it's not to say that the us government is playing games with them. 528 00:32:32,306 --> 00:32:33,939 Politically, I do not think they are. 529 00:32:33,939 --> 00:32:36,829 I think the Biden administration has actually been very strong on this front. 530 00:32:36,829 --> 00:32:39,924 They're trying to get Israel whatever, Israel needs, and 531 00:32:39,924 --> 00:32:44,235 the White House has gone to extraordinary lengths despite in the face of dysfunction 532 00:32:44,235 --> 00:32:46,254 in Congress to get them what they need. 533 00:32:46,254 --> 00:32:49,683 But the reality is there are supply chain issues in the US that Israel can't do 534 00:32:49,683 --> 00:32:50,487 anything about. 535 00:32:50,487 --> 00:32:54,067 There's other priorities the administration has, visa-v Ukraine, 536 00:32:54,067 --> 00:32:55,893 that Israel cant do anything about. 537 00:32:55,893 --> 00:32:57,699 And I think there is this wake up call, 538 00:32:57,699 --> 00:32:59,905 I picked this up in a bunch of meetings I was in. 539 00:32:59,905 --> 00:33:03,074 That Israel needs to pivot dramatically, and quickly, 540 00:33:03,074 --> 00:33:05,981 to building out its own military industrial base and 541 00:33:05,981 --> 00:33:09,427 I think ultimately that's probably good for their economy. 542 00:33:09,427 --> 00:33:11,139 But in the short-term its a huge pivot. 543 00:33:11,139 --> 00:33:15,370 Its gonna require a big increase in defense spending, and 544 00:33:15,370 --> 00:33:21,259 that will have real economic implications that I think could be, quite costly. 545 00:33:21,259 --> 00:33:22,552 >> Bill Whalen: So, let's leave it there gentlemen. 546 00:33:22,552 --> 00:33:24,772 Neil, I hope you have a column in the near future. 547 00:33:24,772 --> 00:33:27,377 You've been to Kyiv and you've now been Jerusalem. 548 00:33:27,377 --> 00:33:30,346 I think a contrast between the two wartime footage would be fascinating 549 00:33:30,346 --> 00:33:30,996 to read about. 550 00:33:30,996 --> 00:33:34,866 So, hopefully that's somewhere in your mind right now. 551 00:33:34,866 --> 00:33:38,084 >> Niall Ferguson: That

is actually what I woke up at four in the morning, 552 00:33:38,084 --> 00:33:39,451 thinking about Bill. 553 00:33:39,451 --> 00:33:43,663 That is exactly the contrast that I'm gonna write about, for my, 554 00:33:43,663 --> 00:33:44,877 column on Sunday. 555 00:33:44,877 --> 00:33:46,715 It's, it's a fascinating one. 556 00:33:46,715 --> 00:33:50,850 I'll tell you one thing, just to sign off on this topic, 557 00:33:50,850 --> 00:33:57,161 Ukrainians global communications are so far vastly more successful than Israel's. 558 00:33:57,161 --> 00:34:02,403 Ukraine has really aced global communications, and everyone here admits 559 00:34:02,403 --> 00:34:07,158 they're quite clear about it, that this has gone horribly wrong. 560 00:34:07,158 --> 00:34:11,159 And I think one thing I'm struck by is that Israelis are shocked at how unpopular 561 00:34:11,159 --> 00:34:15,477 they've become, particularly amongst young people on both sides of the Atlantic. 562 00:34:15,477 --> 00:34:17,394 This has been a rude awakening. 563 00:34:17,394 --> 00:34:19,731 They could learn something from the way the Ukrainians do this. 564 00:34:19,731 --> 00:34:24,159 So they have been offering some tips based on my trips to Kiev. 565 00:34:24,159 --> 00:34:25,027 >> Bill Whalen: Excellent, look forward to it. 566 00:34:25,027 --> 00:34:28,337 Dan, as proof that no good deed goes unpunished, I want you to stick around for 567 00:34:28,337 --> 00:34:29,248 our second segment. 568 00:34:29,248 --> 00:34:31,906 We're gonna talk about the mysterious death of Alexei Navalny. 569 00:34:31,906 --> 00:34:33,556 Mysterious in this regard. 570 00:34:33,556 --> 00:34:36,420 Navalny was seen in court just prior to his death. 571 00:34:36,420 --> 00:34:38,905 Mysterious also that we don't know his cause of death. 572 00:34:38,905 --> 00:34:41,484 I think Russian government called it sudden death syndrome, 573 00:34:41,484 --> 00:34:42,780 whatever the heck that means. 574 00:34:42,780 --> 00:34:45,294 Neil, I wanna play gameshow's host here with you, and 575 00:34:45,294 --> 00:34:48,786 I want you to choose between what's behind door number one, two, or three. 576 00:34:48,786 --> 00:34:50,706 Door number number one, Neil, is the timing of this. 577 00:34:50,706 --> 00:34:55,273 This comes right before the russian election, which I think is on March 25. 578 00:34:55,273 --> 00:34:58,876 Door number two, Neil, would be what's next for Russian opposition? 579 00:34:58,876 --> 00:35:03,804 Can Navalny's wife, Yulia Navalny, can she step in and continue where he went? 580 00:35:03,804 --> 00:35:06,441 Or, door number three, if you want Neil, which is his legacy? 581 00:35:06,441 --> 00:35:10,001 And here I turn to our colleague Michael McFaul, the Hoover senior fellow and 582 00:35:10,001 --> 00:35:13,973 former ambassador Moscow, who wrote the following in the Washington Post, quote. 583 00:35:13,973 --> 00:35:15,635 Navalny dreamed of a free Russia, 584 00:35:15,635 --> 00:35:19,603 while barbaric dictators such as Putin can kill men, but they cannot kill ideas. 585 00:35:19,603 --> 00:35:23,446 I do not know when, but I am confident that Navalny's ideas of freedom will 586 00:35:23,446 --> 00:35:25,339 outlive Putin's ideas of tyranny. 587 00:35:25,339 --> 00:35:32,186 >> Niall Ferguson: Well, let me go through that third door. 588 00:35:32,186 --> 00:35:39,534 When he went back, I said to my wife, Ayan, he's choosing martyrdom. 589 00:35:39,534 --> 00:35:41,767 I wonder if that will work. 590 00:35:41,767 --> 00:35:45,742 I was talking to Russian journalist now in exile, 591 00:35:45,742 --> 00:35:48,866 at Munich at the security conference, 592 00:35:48,866 --> 00:35:53,518 and he said, no, he didn't think that it was martyrdom. 593 00:35:53,518 --> 00:35:57,525 He thought he would be Mandela, of Russia. 594 00:35:57,525 --> 00:35:59,813 The Mandela of Russia. 595 00:35:59,813 --> 00:36:03,875 So, I think that fundamentally, 596 00:36:03,875 --> 00:36:11,020 he underestimated how utterly ruthless Vladimir Putin is, 597 00:36:11,020 --> 00:36:16,621 and how much he is the heir of the KGB tradition, 598 00:36:16,621 --> 00:36:21,117 and indeed the Stalinist tradition. 599 00:36:21,117 --> 00:36:26,169 I mean, in some ways, dissidents, by the time of Brezhnev, 600 00:36:26,169 --> 00:36:31,528 had a better chance of survival than dissidents under Putin now. 601 00:36:31,528 --> 00:36:35,649 So, we really have gone back to a very dark time, 602 00:36:35,649 --> 00:36:40,090 to a Stalinist time, when opposition led to death. 603 00:36:40,090 --> 00:36:43,773 Led to the gulag, and then to death. 604 00:36:43,773 --> 00:36:47,669 The idea is a cheering one, and I want to believe it, 605 00:36:47,669 --> 00:36:52,008 that Navalny will prevail, and that ideas of freedom will 606 00:36:52,008 --> 00:36:56,636 ultimately transcend the tradition of despotism in Russia. 607 00:36:56,636 --> 00:37:01,741 His widow, has vowed to carry on his struggle. 608 00:37:01,741 --> 00:37:07,069 It is nevertheless quite hard to see signs, 609 00:37:07,069 --> 00:37:12,109 that spirit, is going to stand a chance, 610 00:37:12,109 --> 00:37:14,989 as long as Putin lives. 611 00:37:14,989 --> 00:37:17,933 He has created a fascist regime in Russia. 612 00:37:17,933 --> 00:37:22,590 This is something that I predicted a long time ago, 24 years ago, 613 00:37:22,590 --> 00:37:27,817 in fact, when I said that Russia had become Weimar Russia, under Yeltsin, 614 00:37:27,817 --> 00:37:32,171 and, what came after Weimar, that was a point that I made in a. 615 00:37:32,171 --> 00:37:37,561 An article way back when, in 2000, and with a kind of sickening inevitability. 616 00:37:37,561 --> 00:37:42,472 Russia has gone down the exact same path, the fascist path, 617 00:37:42,472 --> 00:37:46,722 and the path of aggression against its neighbours. 618 00:37:46,722 --> 00:37:48,918 So, Navalny died. 619 00:37:48,918 --> 00:37:53,336 I would love to believe that

ultimately, his spirit will prevail. 620 00:37:53,336 --> 00:37:58,036 The consolation is that the fascist regimes do all die, but 621 00:37:58,036 --> 00:38:00,109 they have to be defeated. 622 00:38:00,109 --> 00:38:02,915 They tend not to self liquidate. 623 00:38:02,915 --> 00:38:08,013 And it was only after the Third Reich had been decisively defeated, 624 00:38:08,013 --> 00:38:12,847 crushed, obliterated, that the tradition of freedom that did 625 00:38:12,847 --> 00:38:17,160 exist in Germany before 1933 was able to resurface. 626 00:38:17,160 --> 00:38:20,297 So in the end I think Mike McFall will be right, 627 00:38:20,297 --> 00:38:23,039 but only if this regime can be defeated. 628 00:38:23,039 --> 00:38:28,220 And until there is a greater stiffening of resolve in Europe and in the United States 629 00:38:28,220 --> 00:38:32,603 and a recognition that this Russian fascist regime must be defeated. 630 00:38:32,603 --> 00:38:37,374 Then I'm afraid Navalny and all the other people Putin has killed, 631 00:38:37,374 --> 00:38:42,325 will not have the satisfaction beyond the grave of ultimate victory. 632 00:38:42,325 --> 00:38:44,753 >> Dan Senor: Neil, when the Russia Ukraine war began, 633 00:38:44,753 --> 00:38:49,473 I remember there was a lot of speculation as to whether or not Zelensky would leave, 634 00:38:49,473 --> 00:38:52,385 would get out of Kiev, may even get out of Ukraine. 635 00:38:52,385 --> 00:38:57,612 And that the most important strategic and symbolic decision Zelenskyy made, 636 00:38:57,612 --> 00:39:01,342 was to lead the defense of Ukraine from inside Ukraine. 637 00:39:01,342 --> 00:39:06,040 And to your earlier point about Israel it's part of his story, 638 00:39:06,040 --> 00:39:10,916 the myth, the global PR which I agree has been both impressive but 639 00:39:10,916 --> 00:39:15,100 also very authentic that he's been there in the fight. 640 00:39:15,100 --> 00:39:18,978 Do you think, Navalny could have been Navalny if he were not in Russia? 641 00:39:18,978 --> 00:39:21,104 I mean, do you think he ultimately made that calculation? 642 00:39:21,104 --> 00:39:22,577 You make the comparison to Mandela. 643 00:39:22,577 --> 00:39:25,440 Mandela fought the fight, often mostly from a prison, but 644 00:39:25,440 --> 00:39:27,967 still he fought the fight from inside South Africa. 645 00:39:27,967 --> 00:39:32,407 Navalny, on the one hand, he probably. 646 00:39:32,407 --> 00:39:35,714 One would think he knew there was a risk that his life would end if he came back 647 00:39:35,714 --> 00:39:36,248 to Russia. 648 00:39:36,248 --> 00:39:41,120 And yet, if he wanted to be Navalny, capital N, the image that he's 649 00:39:41,120 --> 00:39:46,582 the symbol he's become, sort of Zelenskyy has become this massive symbol. 650 00:39:46,582 --> 00:39:49,198 You can't do it if you're not in the country, that you're fighting. 651 00:39:49,198 --> 00:39:50,340 >> Niall Ferguson: I disagree. 652 00:39:50,340 --> 00:39:53,713 And

I would here quote our colleague Steve Kotkin, 653 00:39:53,713 --> 00:39:58,592 who's long argued that there needs to be a credible government in exile. 654 00:39:58,592 --> 00:39:59,606 Would de Gaulle. 655 00:39:59,606 --> 00:40:02,566 Have become the leader of a free, 656 00:40:02,566 --> 00:40:07,880 democratic France if he'd given himself up to the Nazis. 657 00:40:07,880 --> 00:40:10,408 No, no, I think this was a mistake. 658 00:40:10,408 --> 00:40:13,704 I said it at the time, I said, he's chosen death. 659 00:40:13,704 --> 00:40:15,960 I'm not sure that's the right decision. 660 00:40:15,960 --> 00:40:18,568 But he believed he had to go back to Russia. 661 00:40:18,568 --> 00:40:23,056 And I think he just miscalculated and thought that he could be Mandela. 662 00:40:23,056 --> 00:40:27,908 Looking back on Mandela, the Afrikaners were ruthless, but they weren't so 663 00:40:27,908 --> 00:40:29,870 ruthless as to kill him. 664 00:40:29,870 --> 00:40:31,574 But Putin doesn't care. 665 00:40:31,574 --> 00:40:37,110 Like a truly evil and fascist dictator, he is prepared not only to invite 666 00:40:37,110 --> 00:40:43,094 the leaders of Hamas, the perpetrators of October 7, to Moscow publicly. 667 00:40:43,094 --> 00:40:48,312 Not only is he prepared to do that, he's prepared to murder the principal 668 00:40:48,312 --> 00:40:54,760 leader of the opposition, and he tried to murder him before when he was abroad. 669 00:40:54,760 --> 00:40:57,824 This is what we are up against in Putin. 670 00:40:57,824 --> 00:41:03,292 And it is a shocking and dismaying reality that now the russian opposition, 671 00:41:03,292 --> 00:41:07,136 now the people, the many Russians I know who yearn for 672 00:41:07,136 --> 00:41:10,808 a democratic Russia, they don't have a leader. 673 00:41:10,808 --> 00:41:12,560 He's dead. 674 00:41:12,560 --> 00:41:16,007 >> John H. Cochrane: I think Navalny had to go back because he wanted to be 675 00:41:16,007 --> 00:41:18,712 the leader of an internal opposition. 676 00:41:18,712 --> 00:41:24,530 De Gaulle came back with foreign armies, and no one's gonna invade Russia and 677 00:41:24,530 --> 00:41:28,460 depose the regime, at least anytime in the future. 678 00:41:28,460 --> 00:41:33,122 And there's plenty of governments in exile that are, I think the Habsburgs are still 679 00:41:33,122 --> 00:41:37,964 sitting around waiting for someone to call them back, [LAUGH] and it's not happening. 680 00:41:37,964 --> 00:41:40,852 I have to salute the tremendous courage of the man. 681 00:41:40,852 --> 00:41:44,135 Whether he knew he was gonna be a martyr or hoped he would be a Mandela, 682 00:41:44,135 --> 00:41:45,596 he knew there was a chance. 683 00:41:45,596 --> 00:41:50,412 And not since the Christian martyrs of the third century have I seen 684 00:41:50,412 --> 00:41:52,182 that kind of courage. 685 00:41:52,182 --> 00:41:56,038 But I also wanna point to why did it not work? 686 00:41:56,038 --> 00:42:01,918 Yes, he may have underestimated the ruthlessness of Putin and company. 687 00:42:01,918 --> 00:42:06,559 Yes, the Afrikaners were at least decent enough that they were not gonna murder 688 00:42:06,559 --> 00:42:07,886 Mandela in prison. 689 00:42:07,886 --> 00:42:14,958 I also think he counted on being famous enough that Putin wouldn't dare. 690 00:42:14,958 --> 00:42:20,382 And thanks to Scott, who looked up the quote for us in 2021, Biden warned 691 00:42:20,382 --> 00:42:25,754 of devastating consequences for Russia if Navalny were killed in prison. 692 00:42:25,754 --> 00:42:27,578 One more line in the sand. 693 00:42:27,578 --> 00:42:31,545 I think there was a feeling, [COUGH] that if you were important enough, 694 00:42:31,545 --> 00:42:35,850 Russia wouldn't dare because the rest of the world would do something awful 695 00:42:35,850 --> 00:42:37,490 enough to it about Russia. 696 00:42:37,490 --> 00:42:41,794 I think this is another sign of deterrence being gone. 697 00:42:41,794 --> 00:42:46,470 I wonder what devastating consequences the Biden administration has in mind. 698 00:42:47,640 --> 00:42:51,376 Maybe, God forbid, allow the Ukrainians to win their war or something of the sort. 699 00:42:51,376 --> 00:42:54,976 But it's clear Putin knew he could get away with it. 700 00:42:54,976 --> 00:43:00,334 And there is an element of our deterrence, of the sense that there are limits 701 00:43:00,334 --> 00:43:05,792 you can't go beyond, even if you're Putin, even if you're a dictator. 702 00:43:05,792 --> 00:43:07,136 That sense is gone. 703 00:43:07,136 --> 00:43:08,328 >> Bill Whalen: We have just a couple minutes left here. 704 00:43:08,328 --> 00:43:11,848 I'd like to get the panel's thoughts on Tucker Carlson's sit down with Putin. 705 00:43:11,848 --> 00:43:15,794 This was eight days before Navalny's death, a two hour interview in which Putin 706 00:43:15,794 --> 00:43:19,113 just basically rambled on and on, interminable history lessons. 707 00:43:19,113 --> 00:43:23,324 Then later trolled Carlson by saying he thought he'd get asked tougher questions. 708 00:43:23,324 --> 00:43:26,243 And then Tucker saying something afterwards he'd like to take back where he 709 00:43:26,243 --> 00:43:29,516 said that, basically he said, quote, was, quote, every leader kills people. 710 00:43:29,516 --> 00:43:31,412 Leadership requires killing people. 711 00:43:31,412 --> 00:43:33,792 Dan, this is somebody in the podcast space with here, 712 00:43:33,792 --> 00:43:37,420 [LAUGH] what are your thoughts on what Tucker's trip to Moscow tells us? 713 00:43:37,420 --> 00:43:39,420 >> Dan Senor: It was embarrassing. 714 00:43:39,420 --> 00:43:45,676 It, I mean, look, I don't wanna- >> Bill Whalen: Go to pile. 715 00:43:45,676 --> 00:43:47,780 >> Dan Senor: Yeah, Tucker's doing what Tucker's doing, 716 00:43:47,780 --> 00:43:49,500 I don't quite get what he's doing. 717 00:43:49,500 --> 00:43:55,217 It's so at leaving Tucker aside to the extent what he's up to is

emblematic 718 00:43:55,217 --> 00:44:00,644 of something broader going on on the right or on elements of the right. 719 00:44:00,644 --> 00:44:03,580 That's what worries me in the United States. 720 00:44:03,580 --> 00:44:08,715 There is, now, I will say Trump has said a lot of things about Russia and 721 00:44:08,715 --> 00:44:10,756 Putin that we don't like. 722 00:44:10,756 --> 00:44:14,520 He still has not come out, and I'm not trying to bait him here, 723 00:44:14,520 --> 00:44:18,089 as I know he's a loyal listener of the Goodfellas podcast. 724 00:44:18,089 --> 00:44:23,680 But Trump has still not come out against aid to Ukraine. 725 00:44:23,680 --> 00:44:28,279 So there are a lot of people from Tucker Carlson to JD Vance to Josh Hawley and 726 00:44:28,279 --> 00:44:32,504 Rand Paul and Mike Lee in the Senate who are against aid to Ukraine. 727 00:44:32,504 --> 00:44:36,370 And I can't figure out if they are like the vanguard of something or they are, 728 00:44:36,370 --> 00:44:39,242 like, out on a ledge and they're gonna be embarrassed. 729 00:44:39,242 --> 00:44:42,744 Because if Trump gets elected president, he will provide aid to Ukraine. 730 00:44:42,744 --> 00:44:44,088 He has not come out against it. 731 00:44:44,088 --> 00:44:47,674 So I've been going back and forth trying to figure out, 732 00:44:47,674 --> 00:44:51,108 is the Tucker kind of JD Vance crowd representative of 733 00:44:51,108 --> 00:44:55,175 something really big going on that we should be worried about. 734 00:44:55,175 --> 00:44:57,690 Or is it actually just a lot of noise? 735 00:44:57,690 --> 00:45:03,050 And the press likes to cover what they're saying and doing disproportionately. 736 00:45:03,050 --> 00:45:06,440 And in fact, it's ultimately not that relevant and 737 00:45:06,440 --> 00:45:11,143 the bipartisan consensus on defending countries like helping to defend 738 00:45:11,143 --> 00:45:15,478 countries like Ukraine against threats from Russia will endure. 739 00:45:15,478 --> 00:45:20,403 Again I swing back and forth, I'm obviously hopeful 740 00:45:20,403 --> 00:45:25,130 it's the latter, but I'm at the edge of my seat. 741 00:45:25,130 --> 00:45:26,666 >> Bill Whalen: John, quickly, your thoughts. 742 00:45:26,666 --> 00:45:29,586 >> John H. Cochrane: I think we have to try to understand people. 743 00:45:29,586 --> 00:45:34,458 So why are people on this kind of fringe of the right ready to throw in the towel? 744 00:45:34,458 --> 00:45:39,446 Well, they might have lost a cousin in Iraq and are wondering why they might have 745 00:45:39,446 --> 00:45:43,031 lost a brother or sister in Afghanistan, which we lost. 746 00:45:43,031 --> 00:45:44,922 That took us 20 years to lose that war. 747 00:45:44,922 --> 00:45:45,935 They ask why? 748 00:45:45,935 --> 00:45:51,027 Ukraine were kind of ready to give up the fight after two years, and they go, 749 00:45:51,027 --> 00:45:57,110 hmm, Israel looks like we're ready to give up and lose that one after three months. 750 00:45:57,110 --> 00:46:00,142 And these are the people who fight and die in our wars. 751 00:46:00,142 --> 00:46:03,899 And I think they're ready to back an America that wants to win and 752 00:46:03,899 --> 00:46:05,439 knows what they wanna do. 753 00:46:05,439 --> 00:46:10,396 But they are skeptical of send more of my relatives and 754 00:46:10,396 --> 00:46:14,583 friends and maybe be off to incompetently led 755 00:46:14,583 --> 00:46:20,080 exercises that we then give up on and retreat from. 756 00:46:20,080 --> 00:46:24,009 Obviously, I'm a big hawk, I've been our Ukraine hawk all along, 757 00:46:24,009 --> 00:46:25,309 if that's possible. 758 00:46:25,309 --> 00:46:29,150 And I think Israel needs to absolutely win this war, and 759 00:46:29,150 --> 00:46:31,849 I don't think it's expressed well and 760 00:46:31,849 --> 00:46:37,008 I don't wanna encourage Tucker Carlson and then this Putin adoration. 761 00:46:37,008 --> 00:46:40,913 But I think we should understand why the people who fight and die for 762 00:46:40,913 --> 00:46:46,154 these wars are wondering, are the people in charge competent at what they're doing? 763 00:46:46,154 --> 00:46:47,590 >> Bill Whalen: Neil, you get the last word. 764 00:46:49,130 --> 00:46:54,639 >> Niall Ferguson: I am beyond disappointed in what Tucker Carlson has 765 00:46:54,639 --> 00:47:00,660 become, because four years ago he was an impressive and 766 00:47:00,660 --> 00:47:06,950 effective broadcaster whose monologues I used to enjoy. 767 00:47:09,010 --> 00:47:13,411 I mean, Tucker, I don't know if you listen to this, but 768 00:47:13,411 --> 00:47:19,374 you have a chance to admit that you made a terrible mistake by going to Moscow, 769 00:47:19,374 --> 00:47:23,070 that you were made use of by a fascist dictator. 770 00:47:24,370 --> 00:47:27,402 You don't wanna be the Walter Duranty of this story. 771 00:47:27,402 --> 00:47:31,178 You don't wanna be the useful idiot of 772 00:47:31,178 --> 00:47:36,208 American journalism who fell for dictatorship. 773 00:47:36,208 --> 00:47:40,304 So, my advice is own it. 774 00:47:40,304 --> 00:47:44,923 You made a huge blunder and you need to admit it and 775 00:47:44,923 --> 00:47:50,116 recognize that you have been used by a fascist regime. 776 00:47:50,116 --> 00:47:55,184 And the fact that Navalny was killed just after you had been 777 00:47:55,184 --> 00:48:00,771 made a fool of in that interview, where- Putin filibustered, 778 00:48:00,771 --> 00:48:06,987 made stuff up that you didn't know enough Russian history to correct. 779 00:48:06,987 --> 00:48:12,266 All of this has all but destroyed your reputation and the only possible 780 00:48:12,266 --> 00:48:17,829 solution is a full and frank apology and an admission that you screwed up. 781 00:48:17,829 --> 00:48:20,673 >> Bill Whalen: All right, gentlemen, on to the Lightning Round. 782 00:48:20,673 --> 00:48:24,432 >> Speaker 6: Lightning Round. 783 00:48:24,432 --> 00:48:26,587 >>

Bill Whalen: We begin with a question from one of our viewers, 784 00:48:26,587 --> 00:48:28,647 John in Australia, he writes the following. 785 00:48:28,647 --> 00:48:32,092 Republicans are trading US credibility at home and abroad, for 786 00:48:32,092 --> 00:48:35,106 short-term political gain at the cost of US Hegemony. 787 00:48:35,106 --> 00:48:38,280 When the invasion of Ukraine began, I recall the US heroically proclaiming they 788 00:48:38,280 --> 00:48:40,016 were backing the Ukrainians until the end. 789 00:48:40,016 --> 00:48:42,853 Given what is happening now with Republican Party's continued 790 00:48:42,853 --> 00:48:45,635 blocking of Ukraine aid, and why should a country like Korea, 791 00:48:45,635 --> 00:48:48,696 Japan, Australia or Taiwan trust the USA with future commitments? 792 00:48:48,696 --> 00:48:50,124 Dan, why don't you take it? 793 00:48:50,124 --> 00:48:55,340 >> Dan Senor: Yeah, I agree, I think the combination of us 794 00:48:55,340 --> 00:49:00,970 looking like Ukraine is if they're not losing, 795 00:49:00,970 --> 00:49:04,555 they're not winning the war. 796 00:49:04,555 --> 00:49:09,165 And the impression that the US is backing off to some degree from Israel. 797 00:49:09,165 --> 00:49:14,828 Now, my only caveat is we're 130 plus days into this and 798 00:49:14,828 --> 00:49:18,466 the US is still standing with Israel. 799 00:49:18,466 --> 00:49:24,511 Previous wars, 2006 Lebanon war it was 34 days before the Bush administration told, 800 00:49:24,511 --> 00:49:26,461 Israel, it's over, stop. 801 00:49:26,461 --> 00:49:29,482 2014 Gaza war that I mentioned earlier was about 50 days. 802 00:49:29,482 --> 00:49:32,842 If you would have told me four months, four plus five months into this, 803 00:49:32,842 --> 00:49:35,040 the Biden administration may have concerns. 804 00:49:35,040 --> 00:49:37,888 Maybe flashing a yellow light, but is not flashing a red light, 805 00:49:37,888 --> 00:49:39,120 I would have been shocked. 806 00:49:39,120 --> 00:49:40,786 And so here we are. 807 00:49:40,786 --> 00:49:47,518 So I think on balance, we're doing fine with regard to Israel, I have concerns. 808 00:49:47,518 --> 00:49:51,842 But if it looks like we're getting shaky on Israel, and if it looks like we're 809 00:49:51,842 --> 00:49:56,100 failing on Ukraine, I think there's gonna be more and more bad actors around 810 00:49:56,100 --> 00:50:00,313 the world that are gonna continue to test us and it worries the hell out of me. 811 00:50:00,313 --> 00:50:01,170 >> Bill Whalen: John. 812 00:50:01,170 --> 00:50:04,861 >> John H. Cochrane: What is the chance the US would actually go and fight for 813 00:50:04,861 --> 00:50:05,589 Ukraine? 814 00:50:05,589 --> 00:50:09,645 We're not even talking about providing some aid to Ukraine, 815 00:50:09,645 --> 00:50:11,830 not actually us fighting there. 816 00:50:11,830 --> 00:50:17,200 So the rest of the world, you may be a lot more on your own than you think and 817 00:50:17,200 --> 00:50:21,358 I say that very sadly as a big believer in Pax Americana. 818 00:50:21,358 --> 00:50:26,572 But waiting for the cavalry to come is a dangerous strategy and 819 00:50:26,572 --> 00:50:32,399 I don't like a world where everybody is armed up to the teeth either. 820 00:50:32,399 --> 00:50:36,221 But counting on the Americans to come and fight for your country, 821 00:50:36,221 --> 00:50:41,018 given what's going on now seems, and given, by the way, we're gonna be tearing 822 00:50:41,018 --> 00:50:45,069 ourselves apart for the next four years, especially if Trump wins. 823 00:50:45,069 --> 00:50:46,991 >> Bill Whalen: Niall, George Shultz always said, 824 00:50:46,991 --> 00:50:50,596 trust is the coin of the realm, so how good is us currency these days? 825 00:50:50,596 --> 00:50:54,171 >> Niall Ferguson: Well, John, our viewer didn't mention the abandonment of 826 00:50:54,171 --> 00:50:58,597 Afghanistan, which I don't think can be blamed on the Republican Party. 827 00:50:58,597 --> 00:51:03,804 The question targeted Republican blocking of Ukraine aid, 828 00:51:03,804 --> 00:51:08,805 but I think the interruption to aid to Ukraine has a lot to do 829 00:51:08,805 --> 00:51:14,027 with the complex politics of the House of Representatives. 830 00:51:14,027 --> 00:51:17,851 This is a bipartisan failure, in my view, 831 00:51:17,851 --> 00:51:22,849 because the Biden administration successively failed 832 00:51:22,849 --> 00:51:27,737 to deter the Taliban, to deter Putin, to deter Iran, 833 00:51:27,737 --> 00:51:32,436 the backer of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. 834 00:51:32,436 --> 00:51:36,159 So it's a bipartisan crisis, but I don't think it's over, I think, 835 00:51:36,159 --> 00:51:37,845 actually this can be salvaged. 836 00:51:37,845 --> 00:51:42,062 I think aid will probably get through the House and be restored to Ukraine. 837 00:51:42,062 --> 00:51:47,074 I don't think, having listened to Mike Pompeo, that the Trump administration is 838 00:51:47,074 --> 00:51:52,026 necessarily going to be an isolationist administration, the last one wasn't. 839 00:51:52,026 --> 00:51:56,226 And so I don't think it's time for Australians or 840 00:51:56,226 --> 00:52:00,430 anybody else in Asia to give up on us commitments. 841 00:52:00,430 --> 00:52:04,714 This is a really critical point, there was much too much talk, I thought, 842 00:52:04,714 --> 00:52:07,844 in Munich, of the end of the transatlantic alliance. 843 00:52:07,844 --> 00:52:13,432 But it's not over any more than it was over in 2016 when Trump won the last time. 844 00:52:13,432 --> 00:52:17,425 Look at the national security bench he's likely choosing from I don't see many 845 00:52:17,425 --> 00:52:18,328 isolationists. 846 00:52:18,328 --> 00:52:22,019 Tucker Carlson is not gonna be secretary of state and in that sense, 847 00:52:22,019 --> 00:52:25,646 I think people should calm down a bit and recognize that mistakes in 848 00:52:25,646 --> 00:52:29,563

foreign policy have been made by both parties over a prolonged period. 849 00:52:29,563 --> 00:52:31,606 But America is still number one and 850 00:52:31,606 --> 00:52:34,998 there's no other Pax than the Pax Americana available. 851 00:52:34,998 --> 00:52:37,426 >> Bill Whalen: Our final question we have just a couple minutes here, gentlemen, 852 00:52:37,426 --> 00:52:38,674 I apologize for the brevity of it. 853 00:52:38,674 --> 00:52:42,565 The American Political Science Association is out with its rankings of the American 854 00:52:42,565 --> 00:52:43,231 presidents. 855 00:52:43,231 --> 00:52:44,801 Number 1, Abraham Lincoln. 856 00:52:44,801 --> 00:52:47,253 Number 2, Franklin Roosevelt. 857 00:52:47,253 --> 00:52:49,686 And number 3, George Washington. 858 00:52:49,686 --> 00:52:53,072 Joe Biden is 14th and Donald Trump is 45th. 859 00:52:53,072 --> 00:52:54,408 Niall, thoughts? 860 00:52:54,408 --> 00:52:57,064 >> Niall Ferguson: I think George Washington should be number 1. 861 00:52:57,064 --> 00:53:02,058 I mean, Dan, you know about startups, it was a startup nation then, 862 00:53:02,058 --> 00:53:05,370 he's gotta be number 1, sorry, no debate. 863 00:53:05,370 --> 00:53:08,606 >> Dan Senor: Wait a minute, Bill, where's Ronald Reagan on that list? 864 00:53:08,606 --> 00:53:11,200 >> Bill Whalen: Reagan is 16th, he is two slots behind Biden. 865 00:53:11,200 --> 00:53:12,216 >> Niall Ferguson: What? 866 00:53:12,216 --> 00:53:13,838 >> John H. Cochrane: [CROSSTALK] >> Dan Senor: Ended the Cold War, 867 00:53:13,838 --> 00:53:14,853 that's ridiculous. 868 00:53:14,853 --> 00:53:15,758 >> Niall Ferguson: [LAUGH] >> John H. Cochrane: How many 869 00:53:15,758 --> 00:53:18,049 Republicans were on the panel, may I ask? 870 00:53:18,049 --> 00:53:21,224 >> Bill Whalen: 154 political scientists, 15 Republicans who do. 871 00:53:21,224 --> 00:53:21,907 >> John H. Cochrane: Thank you. 872 00:53:21,907 --> 00:53:24,150 >> Niall Ferguson: That's about the right ratio. 873 00:53:24,150 --> 00:53:24,911 >> Bill Whalen: John, what do you think? 874 00:53:24,911 --> 00:53:27,487 >> Niall Ferguson: Tear it up, delete, delete, delete. 875 00:53:27,487 --> 00:53:30,180 >> John H. Cochrane: I wanna as a remarket economist, 876 00:53:30,180 --> 00:53:35,382 I'm not quite as much a fan as Roosevelt as everyone seems to be. 877 00:53:35,382 --> 00:53:38,494 Most of what he did, a few things were good, but most of 878 00:53:38,494 --> 00:53:42,903 what he did made the depression worse, but made it seem like he was in charge. 879 00:53:42,903 --> 00:53:46,454 [COUGH] Winning World War II was a decent thing. 880 00:53:46,454 --> 00:53:48,631 Yeah, I'll go with Washington one and Lincoln number two. 881 00:53:48,631 --> 00:53:51,101 Washington, especially for not becoming king, 882 00:53:51,101 --> 00:53:53,231 probably the most important thing he did. 883 00:53:53,231 --> 00:53:56,828 And I wanna put in a little word for my friend, Calvin Coolidge. 884 00:53:56,828 --> 00:54:00,392 Disclosure, I sit on the board of the Calvin Coolidge foundation, 885 00:54:00,392 --> 00:54:03,345 which is a wonderful organization, but little quiet. 886 00:54:03,345 --> 00:54:05,973 Cal did some pretty remarkable things, 887 00:54:05,973 --> 00:54:09,920 especially got the booming economy of the 1920s going. 888 00:54:09,920 --> 00:54:15,486 His motto, harding's motto, but he took it, too, was return to normalcy. 889 00:54:15,486 --> 00:54:20,605 A motto, I think, along with a cutting the tax rate from 70 to about 25%, return 890 00:54:20,605 --> 00:54:25,530 to normalcy and an economic boom, that wouldn't be a bad thing for us to emulate. 891 00:54:25,530 --> 00:54:26,861 >> Bill Whalen: Dan. 892 00:54:26,861 --> 00:54:29,900 >> Dan Senor: My top five would be Washington, for 893 00:54:29,900 --> 00:54:34,514 the reasons Niall said, lincoln, Reagan and Truman. 894 00:54:34,514 --> 00:54:37,395 Reagan, for the reasons I said, won the Cold War, 895 00:54:37,395 --> 00:54:39,614 deserves a Nobel Peace prize for that. 896 00:54:39,614 --> 00:54:44,495 And Truman, obviously, for winning and ending the Second World War and 897 00:54:44,495 --> 00:54:49,375 taking a huge number of risks, not the least of which what he had to do with 898 00:54:49,375 --> 00:54:53,699 Japan, which was probably the toughest decision a president, 899 00:54:53,699 --> 00:54:56,282 commander in chief, has had to make. 900 00:54:56,282 --> 00:55:00,984 And apropos of our earlier, earlier part of the conversation, his decision to 901 00:55:00,984 --> 00:55:05,966 recognize the state of Israel, which was by no means an inconsequential decision, 902 00:55:05,966 --> 00:55:10,204 and had enormous pressure among his advisors, and he stood up to them. 903 00:55:10,204 --> 00:55:14,016 So those are ones that I think should rank very high. 904 00:55:14,016 --> 00:55:16,189 >> Bill Whalen: And we will leave it there, Dan Senor, go out and 905 00:55:16,189 --> 00:55:17,470 go skiing with your family. 906 00:55:17,470 --> 00:55:20,146 Niall Ferguson, you be safe in Jerusalem, enjoy your meetings. 907 00:55:20,146 --> 00:55:21,770 Look forward to your column on Sunday. 908 00:55:21,770 --> 00:55:23,701 John, you and I are in a very soggy California, 909 00:55:23,701 --> 00:55:25,065 stay out of the rain, my friend. 910 00:55:25,065 --> 00:55:26,302 >> John H. Cochrane: Thank you. 911 00:55:26,302 --> 00:55:28,053 >> Bill Whalen: And that's it for this episode of GoodFellows, 912 00:55:28,053 --> 00:55:29,472 we hope you enjoyed the conversation. 913 00:55:29,472 --> 00:55:32,570 We'll be back in early March with a new show, until then, take care, thanks for 914 00:55:32,570 --> 00:55:35,003 watching, thanks for your support, and we will see you soon. 915 00:55:35,003 --> 00:55:35,722 Bye bye. 916 00:55:35,722 --> 00:55:40,141 [MUSIC] 917 00:55:40,141 --> 00:55:43,834 >> Speaker 7: If you enjoyed this show and are interested in watching more content 918 00:55:43,834 --> 00:55:48,321 featuring HR McMaster, watch battlegrounds, also available @hoover.org.