บทถอดความฉบับเต็มของ Explaining Early Marlins Rumors & Inside Ely's Master Plan

week almost a week and a half i guess into um since the post-world series stretch and yet No, uh, I don't think any major league deals of any kind for any players, even though the clock is ticking in terms of getting this business done on this side of the lockout. Um, you know, some rumors floating around very general rumors because the GM meetings started yesterday in Las Vegas. Uh, we should have some audio from Peter Bendix between now and Wednesday nights that we'll be able to share for our audience on fish on first.com. Um, he does some media availabilities. I think he spoke on MLB network radio earlier today. Um, I didn't actually listen to that myself, but I think he's usually pretty reserved with that type of stuff in terms of what he's sharing over there. But yeah, we'll get you caught up on what's going on. Before I get into my off-season blueprint, which is what we're going to dedicate a lot of this episode to, I wanted to check in with your reporting that we put out on Monday on the site, kind of doing an overview about what we could expect from the Marlins during this month of November, just to summarize it for people, what we're some of the names that you've heard attached to the Marlins at this stage of the off season. And, um, yeah, what do you think that this could look like on this side of the lockout in terms of them actually attacking the, the off season early and making some pretty much needed upgrades in certain spots? Yeah. 00:04:39 Speaker 2: The, I mean, it took a while to, you know, gather all the information and we got it done. Isaac helped you help. So it was, it was a collective effort. Um, But yeah, I mean, nothing too shocking, I would say. The only, I guess, semi-shocker was the Marhomes stuff that we heard of. But in reality, it just comes down to, you know, that's a need that the team has. They need a left-handed reliever. I mean, if you could bank on, if some way, somehow, Bruce Sherman actually wants this guy, they'll get him. And I can see a world where he is a starter. I haven't heard anything that would suggest that they're targeting him as a starter. But there are rumors that are out there saying that Adrian Marhomes potentially could start for teams where they view him as a starter, like a Clay Holmes type guy. But I don't think that would be the case with the Marlins, although it would be great. So, yeah, that one was a shocker. Outside of that, it was pretty much everything I expected to hear. And the names, you know, Sandoval was a little bit of a surprise to me, but I'm not at the same time too surprised. You know, shout out to AJ, who identified him as a target for the Marlins. They need a left-handed hitter, left-handed pitcher. And he could definitely fill in that back end of the rotation. He's dealt with a lot of injuries, but he's only 30 years old. So he has, there's a world where you could potentially, you know, bounce back with the Marlins where they would give him an opportunity. And I'm sure

AJ would vouch for the Marlins if it ever came down to that. But, you know, Dustin May, World Series champ. He's been with the Dodgers, crossed paths with Clayton and Gabe Kapler, who is now the GM. They were in the minor league, working in the minor leagues back then as directors and overseeing that area. Same with Alex Vecchia, who was with the Dodgers. And the organization likes Vecchia a lot. They really like him. They really would like him. New comes the other name that has come up. Heard some names catching, nothing too concrete, but they do believe in Gus still, and they think that there's a world where that could potentially be the backup. I think a big thing to note here is whoever the backup is to Joe Mack will be playing about 30 to 40 games behind the plate. Who knows that many, right? So that has to be the right situation for the Marlins to get a player like that. But no, excited that we got this out and definitely got a lot of buzz. And yeah, I mean, it definitely is exciting when you hear the possibilities that the Marlins could do. Hearing that there's a good chance that a lot of this is done in November just because of the uncertainty of the lockout. And there are five roster spots open, so they have a lot of flexibility to move. And they have one more potentially opening when, I know you mentioned this in your offseason blueprint, but they're probably going to non-tender Andrew Yardy. So that's probably going to be the other move that they make. And that'll open a sixth roster spot. But they also have to, they don't necessarily have to, but there is concern that there may potentially be a Rule 5 draft following the lockout. So technically, I guess you'd still have to add players. Brayden Taylor... Jonathan Long, Eliezer Dishmay, Carson Milbrandt, Kemp Alderman. Those are some of the guys to note from that group. So, yeah, it's going to be an interesting next couple of weeks for the Marlins. But I think it'll be exciting, especially now when I think we saw this in the last lockout. So many moves were made. So regardless of if it's the Marlins or not, you're going to get a lot of clarity within the next couple of weeks. And the GM meetings are definitely a start to that. 00:08:07 Speaker 1: I think the big thing, question, this skepticism, reason why people might not be fully bought in in terms of the rumors when they cross is just because we've now seen three off seasons in a row where when it comes to free agency, at least the Marlins are very cautious with what they do. No, very notably, no players have signed to multi-year guaranteed deals in the Bendix era. And even those that signed the one-year deals, of course, have worked out very poorly. And some of the names that you've heard them attached to are guys like Morajon being the obvious one. Even Newcomb coming off back-to-back very good years as a reliever. And Vessia. I think Vessia is another no-brainer that he's going to get multiple years guaranteed from somebody at a pretty high price tag per year. So this team would have to step outside their comfort zone to do it and make a stretch that they haven't had to before. And it's not always because... they would love to have that player for two, three, or four years on the roster. It's because that's kind of the price of doing business. When these players have very good track records of performance and have high upside, that's what the bidding takes it to. That's why you have to go longer than you would like to for players. That can be inconsistent just because that's what it takes to get it done. So we'll continue to monitor that and try to get more specifics in terms of what those players would cost, but I think a spoiler alert that some of those names you mentioned are going to take multiple years. You're not going to be able to get away with another Chris Paddock contract or Cal Quantrill. That's not going to get it done for guys that actually are coming off good years and we're pitching for very competitive teams. 00:09:44 Speaker 2: And on top of that, I mean, you look at where we are right now with the whole lockout situation potentially coming, one-year deals are risky to take. So you don't necessarily want to take those risks, right? Because if, let's say, God forbid, there's not a season, that contract goes right down the drain. and you don't really get anything out of it sandy doesn't pitch one more year with the marlins he goes into his free agency um and you know the marlins that are notoriously known for making one for doing one of your deals um yeah they wouldn't get any of that stuff i mean you shit uh dustin may signs a one-year deal with the marlins tomorrow and there's no season dustin may never pitched with the marlins so just some things to note there and maybe doing those multiple year deals maybe like a one plus one with a club option wouldn't hurt and that's something the marlins could definitely consider and they they could do um and i know in your in your uh in your offseason blueprint there are definitely a lot of multi-year deals i don't think there were many one-year deals i think the most straw one was a one plus one um but outside of that yeah it's a lot of guys you're acquiring for control and I think that's what the Marlins want to do as well, just get guys under control, and that's what they need. 00:10:48 Speaker 1: Well, you've teased enough of it already, so we're going to take a quick break, hear from our friends at Mintz Mobile, and on the other side of the break, we're going to break down this blueprint step-by-step. It's an exercise. I guess I've only done it two years in a row. I thought I had a longer streak of it, but looking back at it, it is an annual tradition now moving forward, and I was able to get it in thankfully before any seismic moves happened around the game. So, yeah, on the other side of the break, I'll explain what I would do if I was in Peter Bendix's shoes this offseason. You're going to want to stick

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Upfront payment of $ 45 for three months, $ 90 for six months, or $ 180 for 12-month plan required, $ 15 per month equivalent, taxes and fees extra. Initial plan term only greater than 50 gigabytes may slow when network is busy. Capable device required. Availability, speed, and coverage varies. See mintmobile.com. 00:12:24 Speaker 1: Back here on FOF Live, Eli Sussman and Kevin Baral. We're going to get into my off-season blueprint for the 26-27 season. offseason. Just some ground rules that I established for myself is that we're going to be on the bright side. We're going to assume that we're getting a full 2027 season. Kevin kind of gave you the opposite end of that right before the break, that there's a chance we don't get any baseball if these two sides don't come to an agreement on a new CBA. But I'm going to assume a full 162 games. I'm going to assume no major rule changes that go into effect immediately. So it's still like approaching this as if things are pretty similar to what we're used to in terms of putting a team together and what that looks like. And I, I naturally assume that the Marlins are going to spend a little bit more money, just a little bit more money than they have the past couple of years when they've been dead last in payroll across all baseball. I think Bruce continues to insist that they have room to grow in that regard. And I'm going to give him, I'm going to say that he's, I'm going to believe him on that. So, I think that kind of sums up the overview. We're going to go kind of step-by-step here, and that's the way that I organized it. Kevin kind of mentioned it already about coming up in chronological order. Next week is when the Marlins have to set their 40-man roster in advance of a Rule 5 draft that I don't think is going to actually happen, but just out of an abundance of caution, there are all these guys that are available that are eligible for the Rule 5 and could potentially be taken by other teams. For Marlins fans, they're probably quietly rooting for Rule 5, right? Because they've seen what Bendix does in the Rule 5, including most notably getting Liam Hicks about a year and a half of very good all-around performance from Hicks as a Rule 5 pick. So those are kind of the best-case scenario about what you get in Rule 5. You mentioned a handful of guys that would be Rule 5 eligible. The ones that I would put on the 40-man would be Kemp Alderman, Jonathan Long, Carson Milbrandt. but I kind of put this disclaimer that I don't think a rule five is the major league portion is actually going to happen this off season, just because the precedent is from the lockout five years ago, where they still do the minor league phase, which really doesn't amount to much of anything, to be honest with you. But the major league portion would normally take place at the winter meetings and the winter meetings are going to get postponed and ultimately canceled if we have a lockout that goes into December and January, et cetera. So I think I would kind of call everybody's bluff on this. I feel like across the league, they're going to be adding these prospects to the 40-man, that they don't actually need to be protected from anything in this particular offseason. Just out of caution, I would add Kemp, Long, and Milbrandt, just because those are guys that we expect to play in the big leagues this upcoming season anyway. Kemp has been in AAA for more than a full season. Jonathan Long has been in AAA for two full seasons, first with the Cubs organization and then finished up with the Marlins. And then Milbrandt has been in AAA for more than half of last season, even though it went terribly, he's a guy that you would think that at least as a reliever, there's something that he could offer, uh, this upcoming season to the Marlins out of the pen. So, um, yeah, I don't know. That's, that's kind of a complicated topic for you to weigh in on, but that's kind of how I split the difference here is that I don't want to risk totally screwing up here and losing all these guys for nothing just because I was playing by different rules. But, um, Yeah, I think this is kind of the, I think it's a calculated risk that I would take just because it leaves more room to actually add experienced big leaguers to the 40-man. And the Marlins are going to need some space in order to do that. 00:15:57 Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think one thing that, one disagreement here is I would have probably put Braden Taylor as well. I don't think a team would take him, but just in case, you never know. But yeah, I agree not putting Dishmay on there. I don't think there's a reason to do that, especially if you go into a lockout. you know, I know you're under the grounds of no lock of, Oh no, you are under the grounds of a lockout. Yeah, you are. Um, but you know, you can just put them on your triple A roster and you're protecting him from the, I think the draft that would matter a little bit more in this case, which is the minor league phase of this whole thing. Um, and, and he's not quite ready yet. Uh, he's still maybe a year away. Um, and,

and I, I see him as a late 20, 27, early 28 option for the Marlins anyways. So I wouldn't really need to add him per se. Braden Taylor's the only other guy I would have added there. Um, But yeah, I agree. Kemp, Jonathan Long, Carson Milbrandt, all guys will probably play some sort of role at the Marlins, especially if the Marlins are in need of first basemen. You have Long and Alderman who could hit for power, drive and runs, middle of the bat order. I mean, that's what you want, right? And it's good. I can also see a world where someone like Kemp fits as a trade target, like a guy who you want to move. And maybe, who knows, maybe you move him right before This all happens, and you make a trade. I can see a world where that happens. If the Marlins are willing to move prospect capital for major league talent, this is the time to do it with Kemp Alderman. I don't think they're going to move long. Milbrand, I could see that, but unlikely. I think that's another thing to keep in mind here. Who are you willing to move off of? And I think Alderman is definitely a name that I could see the team moving off of. 00:17:31 Speaker 1: Over the course of this, you guys will find out that I didn't make too many drastic departures from this roster, and most of those that I did were actually guys that are already big leaguers rather than prospect capital. We're going to go to free agency next because, again, chronologically that's how it usually plays out is we see the free agent signings first, then we see trades later on in the offseason, and I think that's how it's going to go this time around where I think pre-lockout portion, it's almost all going to be free agent signings. And then once we get to the other side is when teams are going to make the corresponding trades in order for the pieces to fit together. We'll take it one by one. The biggest one that I have is on the starting pitching side. I think we've assumed that the Marlins are going to do something here just because starting pitching depth was a big issue for a lot of last year due to injuries. There were a lot of Ryan Gusto, way too much Ryan Gusto. Too many openers were being used at various points. Obviously, Tyler Phillips being forced into a starting role. So I'm going to add a veteran starting pitcher from the outside. And who I came up with was Matthew Boyd on a two-year $ 26 million deal. We have his stats scrolling across. He's been with the Cubs the last couple of years. He was an all-star in 2025. And as previously mentioned, the Marlins just do not sign guys to multi-year free agent deals in recent history. He would be, at the same time, I feel like I jumped on him because I think it's a great value. I think this is a guy that at his best is a legit number three starter. And he's a guy who starts playoff games. He has started playoff games each of the last three years for Cleveland in 24 for the Cubs, each of the last couple of years. And he's somebody that has been had inconsistencies

in his career, but he was fully healthy in 25. And he had a couple non arm related IL stints this past year. He's on the older side. He's going to be 36 by the time next season gets underway. Just your general thoughts about him. He's a lefty, and I know you're interested in lefties too, given how imbalanced Marlon's rotation was from that regard. There's a bunch of starting pitching options available at a similar price range, so just your thoughts on Boyd and what you might have done instead when it comes to adding a starting pitcher. No, I like it. 00:19:39 Speaker 2: I like this option, definitely do. Not a guy I thought of, to be honest, but he does provide you a lot of innings, and despite the age, is what you kind of need on this team. right? And I think you were talking about how quick he is to throw in the ball to the plate, to the catcher, and that would be good for Joe Mack, who is going to be able to throw out more runners. Personally, not a name I've heard from behind the scenes, or the Marlins I've heard of their targeting, but definitely would fit what they need, and it's a left-handed pitcher that could be maybe the third or fourth starter in the rotation, and Given what you did, and you're going to walk us through all of it, they're going to need someone like Matthew Boyd in the final product of what you did here. But, yeah, I like it. It's a good player to add experience, veteran presence that they need in the clubhouse, and has pitched in the postseason, as you noted. So, yeah, this is a good get if the Marlins were to do this. But just not a name I've personally heard so far. 00:20:32 Speaker 1: And I've seen some projections saying that he– could be gettable on a one-year deal. Both MLB Trade Rumors and Fangraphs haven't projected for one year. It's possible to become a free agent. He turned down a $ 15 million mutual option for next year. I don't think he gets that much per year, but I think he did that. I fully expect him to get multiple years. I believe he's a Scott Boras client as well, so there's not going to be any sort of discounts here when it comes to what he's going to sign for, especially with a team like the Marlins that he doesn't have a direct connection for. But I've heard just really good things about him just as a personality, as a teammate, etc. And as somebody that's been very humbled because in the middle of his career, it looks like he was on the way out years ago due to injuries and ineffectiveness. So it's been a very up and down process for him to get to this point where he's now pitching about as good as he ever has deep into his career like this. So the Cubs are one of many teams, I think, would be interested in having him back. Their rotation is in shambles too. So yeah, the Marlins will have to, again, pay more than they're used to paying for a back-end starting pitcher. And that's because I think he really is a mid-rotation starting pitcher that they could get for like number five starter money. So

we'll see if they make that leap to do so. I also thought that, you know, even more specifically, a left-handed reliever is highly important for this team. And I did go with the guy that you personally have linked to the Marlins that has come up in our conversations already. That'd be Sean Newcomb. Back-to-back years of really good relief performance this past year with the White Sox. Pitched about as many innings in the bullpen as anybody in baseball. He pitched 90 innings in the regular season and then seven more in October. Looked really good in the ALDS, even though the White Sox lost. So I'm also getting a two-year deal, about two years and $ 16 million or so. So that'd be $ 8 million a year for two years. And yeah, I think it's definitely going to take multiple years just because he's been that impressive the past couple of seasons. Something to keep in mind is that he hasn't really been used that much in high leverage situations. It's been more so middle relief where he comes in and sometimes eats multiple innings at a time, which is really valuable, but he's not going to be somebody that's closing games or even directly setting up whoever is closing for the Marlins, whether that be Ronnie Henriquez or Anthony Bender, et cetera. So I'll be curious... In my mind, I think he should be used in more important spots, just given the success that he's had. He matches up really well against both lefties and righties. He can pitch on back-to-back days if necessary. He's just become a really versatile guy. Similar to Boyd, he's had just this really crazy career where he was a very well-regarded starting pitching prospect once upon a time with the Braves and didn't really pan out all that much as a starter, but has now found his niche. So again, to you, Kevin, I think this one is one where they have a pretty... obvious need for a lefty reliever, especially if they move on from Andrew Nardi. Yeah, what do you think about Newcomb trying to just continue what he's been doing the past couple years and being effective that way? 00:23:33 Speaker 2: Yeah, he's a guy that the Marlins are interested in, as you noted, and I think it would be a great fit. They need a left-handed reliever. I agree. He probably should be pitching in some higher-level situations, and that could very well be the case. I could also see an avenue where maybe they believe he could still be a starting pitcher. I know that There is a world where failed starters go back to being starters, like we saw with Tyler Phillips last year. Neal's all right in that role. I don't think Newcomb would be that just quite yet. And, you know, there is a little bit more risk with Newcomb. As you've noted, he's had a weird career so far. And I think that's why they're a little higher on Alex Vessia, personally. And he's pitched in high leverage. He's pitched in the World Series. I mean, he's been in all sorts of situations. So that's probably why they're a little higher on Vessia. 00:24:17 Speaker 1: But.

00:24:19 Speaker 2: again, that's probably going to cost you a little bit more than someone like Newcomb. I like this option for Newcomb. He only gave up four homers all season from what I'm looking at here. He was really good. Definitely would play well in Lone Depot Park. I think this is a good addition for the Marlins if they were to make it. 00:24:39 Speaker 1: We have a comment here from Teal Pinstripes about, is Russell Iglesias a possibility when it comes to the bullpen? He, of course, has been with the Braves for the last bunch of years and A more experienced closer, an older guy, and someone that, just to keep in mind, if the Marlins are really stubborn about sticking to one-year deals, Iglesias, just because of his age, because of his slightly declining stuff at that stage of his career, he'd be somebody that I think would be slightly cheaper than Newcomb. A bigger name that would also be cheaper, but I think for understandable reasons, someone that I think is more risky, somebody that can get out left-handed batters, but is not a lefty himself. so it's possible the Marlins do add multiple relievers over the course of this offseason. I tend to think probably not, just because they do have Ronnie coming back from his injury. They do have several young guys that were impressive last year, including Josh Eckness. To me, I just felt they were one very, very trustworthy reliever away from rounding out this bullpen, and it doesn't take a whole lot to be an upgrade over Pete Fairbanks and filling that void, so I think Newcomb can do that, but Iglesias is a fair name to shout out and one that I wouldn't be shocked if the Marlins have some potential interest along the way, especially if he's able to take a one-year deal. 00:25:51 Speaker 2: Something to note here with Iglesias quickly is he had one of the best seasons of his career this past year. He made his first ever All-Star appearance. I think he said he matched his career high in saves. He was the closer for the Atlanta Braves, one of the best teams in the National League. So I think it will be a little bit more than Newcomb, definitely, on a one-year deal especially. He's going to try to get another big contract, not a multi-year deal, I'm saying, but like a one-year good deal that he could go back to if it's to Braves or shoot. I mean, he'd be the Marlins' closer coming in right away. And you said it, he could get lefty hitters out. He lives in Miami. He trains at FIU. So this is an option for the Marlins, most definitely. Not a name I personally have heard. He's on the older side, but he's a guy who definitely would be a good fit. I think him, any of those relievers, honestly, as you said, would be better than Fairbanks. And if he's a guy who can get out lefty hitters, yeah, he'll definitely take it. 00:26:50 Speaker 1: So the last major league free agent signing I had in mind was on the position player side. Miles Straw is the guy I kind of had circled, I believe it was two off seasons

ago, when he was just buried in the minor leagues with Cleveland's. on a bad contract and they were just looking to give him away. They gave him away to the blue Jays. And in 25, he actually had a nice part-time role on that team that made it all the way to game seven of the world series, a slight step back this past year. Uh, but to me, he just checks the boxes I want from that typical backup center fielder. I don't even want to say a fourth outfielder because it's almost like a fifth outfielder on this team where he wouldn't really play a ton other than when Jacob Marcy needs time off. The contract I came up with, I think it's just one year, $ 3 million with a club option for about $ 4 million the next year. So if things go pretty well, then it's an efficient deal for the team to pick up. A guy that you're never going to try to force him into an everyday role, even if Marcy gets hurt. He's somebody that, against very select lefties, could make occasional starts. It's more so guarding in case of Marcy's rehab from this elbow issue, of course, where I think He's optimistic. He told us that he's optimistic he could be ready for opening day. But potentially that would be as some DH responsibilities mixed in there while his arm gets fully built up. So I just think there's going to be quite a bit of center field playing time to go around early in the year. If they roll it back with what they had last year, that'd be Estere Ruiz, who had some ups and downs this past year. And to me, despite his speed, I just don't like him in center field. And Straw is somebody that very consistently grades out well defensively, especially two years ago and then even this past year. despite now being 32 years old, that he's still a good center fielder, and that's hard to find in this organization. So to me, just a guy that complements what they have. We know that this team has very good outfield depth, but to me, he is somebody that fits very specifically with, I think, what they already have. A guy that would be a low-maintenance addition to this team. 00:28:50 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's going to be a guy who you're not going to expect a lot from offensively, but defensively, he's a gold-glover, I believe. He's really good. He can play all three offensive spots, can play center. You'll definitely take a player like that, and you know, he's going to steal your bases. He's a quick player, so it's going to be pretty much the Acer Ruiz 2.0. That is assuming the Marlins move on from Ruiz and non-tender him in a couple weeks here, but yeah, this would be another solid addition. Low maintenance, as you said. Got to keep your expectations low offensively for someone like Myles Straw, but when You brought in Ruiz. Expectations were low for him, and who knows? Maybe they think they could unlock something offensively for him too, and he could have another nice first half with with the marlins um but yeah it would be a cheap deal i think he put it at a one plus one uh three million uh for the year and then four million for 28 so that would be pretty solid and it's a club option so it doesn't work out you just decline the club option and you move on so yeah uh it's it's a good it's a good get for the marlins uh who definitely could use the help in the outfield in terms of their defense. 00:29:53 Speaker 1: So we're gonna take one more break here from jet ski rentals in south florida And then I'm going to pour out all the trades that I have. I have six trades in mind as well as a couple extensions. So we're going to fly through those on the other side of the break, get your takes. And obviously eager to hear from everybody in the live chat as well. So keep that coming. Keep sticking around with us. And we'll be back on the other side with the rest of my off-season blueprint for the Marlins. Jet Ski Rentals of South Florida. They present all of our podcast efforts here on Fish on First. Miami's best jet ski and boat adventures. Jet ski rentals of South Florida with six jet ski locations and over 120 boats. There's something for every style and every budget. Ride jet skis right in front of the downtown skyline and Ferris wheel or book your own private boat starting as low as $ 300 with the captain included. Bring your drinks to your friends and enjoy the water your way. The boat is completely yours for the time you reserve it. The reservation based only to book call 305-990-2192 or check them out online at sfjetskyrentals.com. Make sure to use our promo code FISHONFIRST and that gets you a 10% discount off your next booking. Again, that's 305-990-2192 or online at sfjetskyrentals.com. Back here again on FOF Live, continuing with my Marlins offseason blueprints. We've touched on the 40-man stuff, and here's a very quick look at the free agent signings that we just discussed as well. Matthew Boyd, two years, $ 26 million. Sean Newcomb, two years, $ 16 million. Miles Straw, one year, $ 3 million with a club option for $ 28 million. And some minor league deals that I included as well. Jake Rogers as a depth catcher. Reese Hoskins kind of on his last legs trying to reestablish himself as a power hitting first baseman. Jeffrey Springs has some connections to Peter Bendix from. 00:31:43 Speaker 2: Their Rays days. 00:31:44 Speaker 1: He used to be a pretty good reliever turn starter, and I think he could fit in this staff one way or the other as a reliever or starter as the year goes on, but has to really reestablish his value. And I threw in Albert Abreu as well, a hard-throwing right-handed reliever who's doing very well in winter ball right now. So that's how he kind of caught my attention. But now I'm going to show all the trades at one time. the six that I came up with in addition to these free agent moves that I think would put the Marlins in a great position heading into next year. We're going to spend the most time, I think, on the first two or three. So they're on the screen for those of you watching. But the one I want to

begin with, this is the second offseason in a row where I've chosen the Cardinals as I think an ideal trade partner for the Marlins. And they didn't follow my advice last year. Otherwise, last year's would have panned out pretty well. I had them bundling together Nolan Arenado and Alec Burleson together, and both of them had very good years, Burleson in particular, but that was a complicated one. This one's more simple. It's just a three-player deal and basically a challenge trade of two all-stars, Max Meyer going to St. Louis and Ivan Herrera going to Miami. I also included this lower-level catching prospect, Juan Rujano, who I didn't know a whole lot about. He's more of a throw-in here, but to me, I think Meyer... and Herrera just fit better with these organizations than they do with their current ones. As I said, both of them are first-time All-Stars in 2026. But with Max, of course, his season ended pretty abruptly with what was initially called a neck injury and didn't pitch at all from late July onward. Herrera played almost every single game for the Cardinals, but a lot of it as a DH. When he was a catcher, the results were pretty underwhelming defensively, but he's somebody that gets on base a lot. has hit for a decent amount of power several years in a row now. And to me, I just think he fits a whole lot better, as you mentioned, as the Marlins look for a Joe Mack platoon partner behind the plate and somebody that I think is a good enough bat to also be a DH on most days, even when he isn't catching, that Herrera could be in the lineup almost every day for this team and really deepen that lineup. And with Mack, she becomes a little bit more expendable as long as they're willing to spend a bit in free agency on a starter like Matthew Boyd. Even though Max is better than Boyd this past year. If you're looking forward and just paying attention to what we think is going to happen in the future, I would trust Boyd more than Meyer in terms of pitching more innings the next couple of years. So that's kind of my thinking in terms of why I think Max is a little bit expendable and why I think Herrera would be a nice boost to this team as they look for more right-handed quality hitting. 00:34:26 Speaker 2: Yeah, I like this. I was very shocked when I was scrolling down. I was like, oh, Max Meyer, didn't see that one coming. But when you think about it for Yvonne Herrera, a guy who could probably use, not maybe the change of scenery as much, but more just a new role on a new team and a place where they're planning to compete a little bit sooner than the Cardinals maybe. And then I like the addition of the catcher, the other catcher, the low-level catcher, but they need catching in this organization and if you listened to the episode with Jacob Brenner on fish and filtered, you'd know that is very much the case, but yeah, Herrera was an all-star last year could play catcher could DH could play even some first base. So definitely a guy who could help

out this team right away and would be a cool addition to the Marlins, a different type of player. I would say just another option for the, for, for Clayton to have and yeah, right-handed hitter in the middle of the order. That's what they need. 00:35:16 Speaker 1: Right. 00:35:17 Speaker 2: So it's, it's time to get someone like that. And, Yeah, he's coming off one of the better seasons of his career. Could definitely help out for sure. And he played really well in the WBC back in the, a couple of years ago for Pan. And no, not the WBC, I'm sorry, the Caribbean series. He played here a couple of years ago and that was a big showing for him. So yeah, he's definitely familiar with Lone Depot Park. 00:35:40 Speaker 1: I guess the one other that we'll dive into a bit is Xavier Edwards. He's somebody that we floated around as one of the, sneakier trade candidates than the Marlins have just because he is as good as he is and as solid as he is. He is limited to second base. He is limited to hitting for hardly any power whatsoever. I have him go into the Texas Rangers for this three-player package, adding more rotation depth to help backfill for Max Meyer and buying low on Jack Leiter, who himself was an extremely high draft pick, hasn't really put it together yet for the Rangers. But I have him, a minor league catcher in Malcolm Moore, who's hit really well at high A and double A to this point, and then taking a flyer on Brainerd Figueroa, who was an outfielder just a year ago, got released by another organization, converted to pitching, and all of a sudden he's throwing 99 miles an hour from the left side and he's striking at everybody in the DSL. Very small sample size, but he was somebody that intrigued me there. So with Edwards sending him away, opens up second base for a combination of Javier Sanoja and a couple other infielders that the Marlins have. Selling him before he gets too expensive, not wanting to take him for granted, but if you're able to address several other areas all together at once with Leiter, a guy that I would think has a good shot at winning the fourth or fifth spot in this rotation, Moore gives them some catching depth in the minors behind Mack and Herrera because otherwise it's really thin down there outside of those guys that are already major league ready. And then with Figueroa, I think that the upside is really interesting, even though he's obviously a bunch of years away from actually contributing. 00:37:23 Speaker 2: Yeah, I would not have expected a Texas Rangers trade, but here we are. Yeah, Dak Leiter, definitely it's not gone as the Rangers expected. I'm curious to see what they do there, though, because they may move off of Corey Seager, Evaldi, Jacob deGrom. So depending on what happens there, maybe they do keep Leiter as one of those building blocks. But I like that you're addressing the need for left-handed pitching, catching as well in this trade. And the Rangers could definitely use someone like Xavier Edwards. They could pair up with Corey Seager if Seager does decide to, or not decide to, ends up staying. Or yeah, decides to stay because he does have a new trade clause. So he reunites with Skip Schumacher, his former manager. So that's something else to keep in mind there. And Pipe, Luis Urueta, who is the... uh bench coach there so yeah a couple things to note there it's it's an interesting trade i think edwards would fit well in that rangers lineup add some speed some versatility as well a little bit of it if they feel like that that is something that's in his cards and uh skip would probably use him how he wants this time around um instead of playing him at shortstop he could play him at second base and get the full value out of him not gonna hit a homer there i would assume that is a very tough ballpark to hit a homer i've heard um so he's gonna have to take uh It's going to be a lot of extra base hits, but it's a good opportunity for him. Marlins have clearly shown that they can fix pitching. So Jack Leiter, with still a good amount of years of control, comes over to Miami in this trade and would be, like you said, that fourth or fifth starter, especially with match gone and you eventually getting rid of Ryan Gusto as well. So, yeah, they made a couple trades here, and they now need to add some starting pitching so they get Jack Leiter in this alternate universe. Mm-hmm. 00:39:03 Speaker 1: So the one other to cover a five-player trade that he came up with in relation to Herrera now being that number two catcher in that main DH, Gus is kind of out of a spot. He's out of minor league options. He didn't hit very well in the big leagues this past year. And defensively, we lost hope for him a couple years ago on that front. So this is going to be selling low on Gus, which is why I've got to bundle him with a couple actual prospects in this case. Nate Payne, who had a really good year with Hia Beloit, and Dylan Head, who had kind of a shaky year with Hia Beloit and had a lot more prospect pedigree but hasn't really progressed the way that the Marlins thought he would. Sending them to the Giants for a package headline by Casey Schmidt. Schmidt was one of the hottest hitters in baseball during this patch in early to mid-May. And even the overall numbers were career numbers for him. It was an OPS in the high 700s. He hit 21 home runs even without being an everyday player, missing the end of the year. He's great defensively. That's kind of a big element here is that I like him most at third base, but he can play second. He was playing a lot of left field for the Giants last year as well just because they have veteran players filling up their infields. so he was kind of out of his spot, but I think with the Marlins, he'd be in fields only, and I think he would improve their defense while also being another guy like Herrera that hits left-handed pitching extremely well, and Jack Choate is this massive left-handed reliever in the upper minors who

has an unorthodox delivery, and he's got a shot at contributing by the very end of the year out of the bullpen, but to me, this is mainly about Moving on from Gus and hoping that Schmidt can kind of pick up where he left off last year before he got hurt at the end of the season. 00:40:50 Speaker 2: Yeah, big fan of this trade. It's three guys who the Marlins are sending away. First, Gus. It's obviously a weird situation with him because you don't really know what his role could entail on this team. And you're kind of selling low on him, but you have to, especially after the season that he just had. And then you're pairing it up with two prospects out of the lower minors, Nate Payne, Dylan Head. I think you're in a position where you could trade some pitching from this organization. And Nate Payne is totally fine to do that with. Same thing goes with offense. Dylan Head has just underperformed so far with the Marlins. A lot of it due to injuries, obviously. But the speed's there. He can play the outfield well. And it's a guy that maybe the Giants could just get a little bit more out of. And he's still a couple years away. So is Nate Payne. So the Marlins don't need those players in the immediate future. As for Casey Schmidt, where you can play him anywhere in the infield, especially at third base, which is a big need. You're moving on from Edwards. you put Sonoha at second, you put Schmidt at third. You have yourself a pretty solid infield still with Stowers at first, Sonoha at second, you have Otto at short, and then Schmidt at third. I mean, and Schmidt had a really nice offensive season. I know with Choate, upper minors guy, maybe could make his debut at some point this upcoming season. So it's another little left-handed option they could have there, or big left-handed option in this case, as you say. But yeah, this is a good trade. I think it's the trades that, fans hate are the ones that they don't like that end up working out i think is what the how it's said so giants fan probably will hate this trade but augustine ramirez goes to a place where it's a fresh start for him he could still catch in that organization too i don't think they'll have a catcher for uh competing with him or they don't have um what's his name patrick bailey anymore over there so yeah this is a good opportunity for gust to go and catch and not have the pressure Cause this is a team that probably isn't going to compete very much in, in 2027. 00:42:37 Speaker 1: So the last few are all one for one trades that I have here. Ryan Gusto going to the Rockies for Willie Castro being a nice left hand. He's a switch hitter, but a guy that could kind of platoon with Sonoha and with Schmidt so that they don't have to face too many right-handed pitchers. He could play a bunch of different positions and he's a former all-star himself. Although that's kind of a stretch. That's not really the expectation. He's more of a super utility guy. I have Carter Johnson going to the Yankees for

Luis Gil. Both those guys, their stock is down quite a bit from where it used to be. Of course, Johnson was a very high draft pick, and he's coming off his best year in the minors, but that's not saying a whole lot. And Gil is kind of squeezed out of a job with the Yankees just because they have so much rotation depth, and he's been hurt for most of the last two years. Related to the Miles Straw signing, I have Ruiz going to the Guardians for this left-handed, not reliever, well, he's a starting pitching prospect for now. But I guess Ruiz, realistically, most likely a big league reliever in the future named Caden favors going to the guardians. The guardians always struggled to get outfield production. And, uh, Ruiz, as I said, I just don't love the fit moving forward. If he's not going to be a center fielder, he can still help as a base runner. He was a surprisingly decent hitter for a lot of last year, but I think he's more valuable to other organizations than he would be in Miami. So I want to get out of here shortly with this about these extensions that I had in mind. There's so many potential extension candidates in the organization. The ones that I landed on that I want to focus on are Sandy and Marcy. Sandy has been floated as one, even though he's an unusual extension candidate, for obvious reasons he's been mentioned just because he's been with this organization forever. He's coming off a very solid season where he led the big leagues in innings pitched and even closed for a few games. He's so instrumental to what they do behind the scenes as well. So the terms I came up with are four years, $ 90 million, and even a $ 20 million vesting option for a fifth year, which basically means if, if he just stays healthy at the end of this deal, then it would go for a fifth year. This basically goes through, if not his entire career, then certainly his, his best years remaining deep into his mid thirties. Um, and it would give him a slight raise over what he's earning this year. This year is earning 21 million. I have him as an annual value at 22 and a half moving forward. I think it's a fair compromise where he's not being paid like an ace because realistically he's not an ace anymore. He was an ace most recently in 2022, and now he's a very important starter for this team. And I think this is kind of that middle ground where he still gets to feel valued. He still gets to really rack up these insane numbers in terms of where he stands in franchise history for all these stats, but at the same time, somebody that the Marlins can actually afford to keep around, which hasn't been the case very often. And then the other one is Marcy. where for him, I came up with seven years, $ 48 million and an eighth year club option if he's six round long enough. So that would take him all the way until he's 33 years old. They pick up the option. He's a little bit older than the typical extension candidate too, for these young guys that usually break through at a slightly younger age. But to me, he just has such a safe profile. He always gets on base. I really liked his centerfield defense this past season, especially as the year went on. And of course the bat turned around after that very slow start. So I just think that offensively, 2026 was almost the floor for him, like the worst case scenario. I think he's going to very consistently be an above average hitter who can stick in center field. And even if he has to move to left field, um, when other guys come up that he's, uh, he's still going to add a lot of value in that sense. So to me, he'd be the first young guy that I would extend with this team. And, uh, I kind of based it on the Sedan Rafaela extension that he got from the Red Sox. The terms here would be pretty similar. I have the Marlins breaking their extension drought that has gone on for almost, at this point, since the last Sandy extension almost five years ago. 00:46:27 Speaker 2: No, don't forget Richard Blyer. 00:46:30 Speaker 1: I'm intentionally skipping Richard Blyer. I guess that counts technically. 00:46:34 Speaker 2: It counts. 00:46:38 Speaker 1: Your quick thoughts on extensions before we get out of here. 00:46:42 Speaker 2: I spoke to someone today And they said that Sonoha is definitely more likely of an extension candidate than Marcy, which doesn't surprise me because they definitely love Sonoha and Sonoha loves Miami. But Marcy was an extension candidate just last offseason and nothing really ever came of it. Right. But my understanding is that the last conversation there was on opening day. Nothing since. But that doesn't mean that nothing, you know, never say never. Right. I can definitely see a world where that happens. Maybe not as expensive as maybe they would have assumed going into this 2026 season. and coming out of it, right? I think you would have expected him to potentially be a $ 100 million player by the end of the season, just the way he had performed in 2025. I'm not saying he is one, but I think seven for 48 is great. And the $ 15 million club option, you put that all together. And yeah, the Marlins tried to give Stowers that same deal, right? With the Rafaela deal is what the comparison was. So do it with Marcy, who's a younger player, because he's going to be around a lot longer. And I think you, do you buy out the free agent years? I think you do. 00:47:41 Speaker 4: Yeah. 00:47:42 Speaker 1: Yes. It doesn't be a couple of free agent years. 00:47:45 Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly. So that's huge. And then Sandy, uh, that's perfect. I really don't, you know, give him whatever he wants at this point to keep him on Marlin. 00:47:51 Speaker 1: Right. 00:47:52 Speaker 2: But, uh, four for 90, 20 million divesting option. Uh, yeah, no, I mean, this is exactly what he's going to want to command in the market. Um, maybe even more than that, but this is his last big contract, uh, as a, as a major leaguer. So he's going to want to break the bank. Maybe the Marlins give him

the opportunity to explore that market. in free agency next year. Obviously, he's going to have the opportunity regardless or not, but maybe he wants to do something with the Marlins before that and get to a contract extension. But it doesn't seem like that's going to be the case, and they're just going to see if this, let this ride off into the offseason to come. 00:48:27 Speaker 1: If you want my full rationale behind the moves, it is up on fishonfirst.com in article form. I do have some more explaining in terms of why it is I arrived at these decisions and why I think it's semi-realistic. Um, but, uh, yeah, we'll see as history says, they don't usually follow too many of my specific recommendations, but it's, it's good to know that they're at least paying attention. 00:48:47 Speaker 2: Have you ever hit on one? 00:48:49 Speaker 1: Oh, I'm trying to remember. Not in other article forms, like during, in like mid season moves, I've gotten close. I'm trying to think, um, out there. Remember, certainly not, not laughing. 00:49:00 Speaker 2: We'll ever be arms, uh, not right on. What was it? Um, Bella Cruz for, uh, yeah. Yeah. 00:49:08 Speaker 1: That's the bar that I'm trying to clear. 00:49:10 Speaker 2: The one little news, Brian Alvarado is no longer a Marlin. He's now with the Phillies. 00:49:15 Speaker 1: With the Phillies? 00:49:16 Speaker 2: Yeah, invite to camp. I'm pretty sure the only homer. he hit last year was in Philadelphia. So clearly they got scared and they said we need to have him. So wishing him nothing but the best. Amazing guy. He will definitely be a coach at some point in his future. Maybe he will be one honestly now. But he does have an opportunity to get at least a backup job there in Philly. He's going to compete for it because Garrett Stubbs isn't there anymore. I don't know– I'm trying to figure out the name. The Marshawn, I think, is his name, who's the other catcher there. So maybe he'll compete for that job. But Navarretto's going to have a good opportunity to win the job. And I could see a world where if he doesn't get it, he'll go somewhere else. And I really don't think the minor leagues is in his future in Philly. 00:49:55 Speaker 1: Well, thank you for that update. I hadn't noticed that yet. So good on Navarretto. We'll see if he actually gets back to the big leagues or whether he's AAA depth. But spent longer than we were expecting in the big leagues last year. Most of the season on the active roster. 00:50:09 Speaker 2: At least now all the Marlins fans that hated me thinking that I didn't like this guy. It's, it's over. All the hate is over. And they could finally admit that Brian Alvarado was not going to be the Marlins backup catcher next year. So yeah. 00:50:20 Speaker 1: Yeah. We'll wrap it up here. Eli Sussman and Kevin Baral here on FOF live fish on first podcast, found a territory network presented by jet ski rentals of South Florida. So we'll have another stream next week. We'll have another unfiltered in between. 00:50:32 Speaker 4: Now and then. 00:50:33 Speaker 1: So stay tuned for that, wherever you get your podcasts and thank you so much for the support as always go fish. 00:50:47 Speaker 2: So.