บทถอดความฉบับเต็มของ Saudi Arabia under attack & Ethiopia on brink of war | Red Sea crisis explained

00:04:39.600 --> 00:04:58.800 So I would say that it's something that drives me absolutely nuts about this discussion is, you know, for example, in Britain, the intensity of discussion, often totally ignorant about the politics of a place quite far away, and the total inability for our us to change the reality on that ground. 00:04:59.040 --> 00:05:14.800 And yet, you know, you've got whole political parties in Britain kind of ruining their prospects over trying to see who can be anti-Semitic enough and, you know, throw out things like this conflict, as you were just saying in The Guardian, has, you know, destroyed all things, all parts of the world. 00:05:14.879 --> 00:05:18.160 I mean, it's the most ignorant thing I think I could possibly think of to say. 00:05:18.240 --> 00:05:26.000 And a complete kind of dismissal of the whole history of this conflict, which is long and complex and involved and quite damning on all ends. 00:05:26.160 --> 00:05:35.360 I was having a chat actually with um Kieran, who works on the US for us at Actlet, about what we might be tracking that might have an influence over the midterms and whether there was anything to be aware of. 00:05:35.439 --> 00:05:41.600 And I was asking about, you know, the the relationships that Trump had with Israel and what that says about the various parties. 00:05:41.680 --> 00:05:54.240 And he was saying, well, not really any impact other than that's how woke, not woke people are determining their local representative by how vocal they are on a particular stance or not. 00:05:54.399 --> 00:05:56.560 And that seems counterproductive to me. 00:05:56.879 --> 00:05:58.399 Well, I mean, it has nothing to do with them. 00:05:58.480 --> 00:06:01.120 So why are you basing your representative choice on that? 00:06:01.360 --> 00:06:24.879 I think that one of the things that we've learned kind of post-COVID, maybe actually the social justice protests of 2000 and onwards, has been this need to, especially on the left, but to some degree also on the right, to come out and publicly adhere to the most extreme line and do so with no recourse, full loyalty, no common sense. 00:06:25.040 --> 00:06:27.439 And that seems to have captured this issue. 00:06:27.600 --> 00:06:28.639 I think it's ridiculous. 00:06:28.800 --> 00:06:41.759 If I asked any of those people about the complexities of, let's say, Fatah or who was running in the Israeli election, what their position was regarding what should happen in Gaza, literally no one would be able to tell me that information. 00:06:42.160 --> 00:06:46.240 It seems particularly trendy, and that's weird, right? 00:06:46.480 --> 00:06:48.720 Weird, and I also think like just people go too far. 00:06:48.879 --> 00:07:09.040 So, for example, the Green Party here in Britain, a few weeks ago at their conference in Brighton passed a resolution with minimal votes, but they it still passed that Zionism was racism, and as a result, of course, they are dealing with the fact that they are now considered to be an anti-Semitic party and by pretty reasonable people. 00:07:09.199 --> 00:07:20.560 But one of the tenets of their resolution was that there should be a one-party state, and that party should be Palestinians, as in Israel should not exist and had no right to exist. 00:07:20.720 --> 00:07:34.240 And when you take such an extreme position and you say to anybody who doesn't agree with it that they are in fact a fascist or any sort of nonsense that's going along with this, I think you place yourself in a realm where you should kind of just be sectioned. 00:07:34.319 --> 00:07:37.040 Like, I mean, you're not contributing at all to this discussion. 00:07:37.120 --> 00:07:38.560 You're only listening to hear yourself talk. 00:07:38.720 --> 00:07:48.399 Yeah, something we spend a lot of time on within anything media headlines and whatever, those kind of extreme views, they're obviously the ones that generate the most noise and the most visual, you know, they're they're appealing. 00:07:48.560 --> 00:07:52.800 People want to listen to the more the extreme they get, but this certainly has kind of taken a bit of a toll. 00:07:52.879 --> 00:07:58.079 So I think labeling of things is certainly something that you and I would unpick for a while another day. 00:07:59.120 --> 00:08:05.360 So let's move on then to the Houthis and this intensified attack in Saudi Arabia. 00:08:05.439 --> 00:08:15.839 So this has been taken over the news over the last three days completely, and lots of images have come out, and people are trying to catch up with the history here. 00:08:15.920 --> 00:08:19.439 Again, it's not something that has had much worldwide attention. 00:08:19.519 --> 00:08:25.759 So there's been lots of different takes on where it all started and what fed this recent escalation. 00:08:25.920 --> 00:08:27.199 So talk us through that, Cleaner. 00:08:27.600 --> 00:08:28.160 How did we get here? 00:08:28.319 --> 00:08:31.439 So the Houthis, you know, they've been around for quite a while. 00:08:31.600 --> 00:08:34.559 So they really became prominent in about 2014. 00:08:34.639 --> 00:08:37.279 We've had discussions about the Houthis on the podcast before. 00:08:37.440 --> 00:08:45.440 Their role at the moment is that they had a particularly successful attempt to overtake some areas on the coast of the Red Sea. 00:08:45.519 --> 00:08:54.000 And so they've been overtaking some very important commercial shipping lanes that kind of complement what they believed Iran had managed to do in the Strait of Hormuz. 00:08:54.159 --> 00:09:04.720 So they've attacked four commercial ships between kind of late, late July and mid-August, and including a tanker off Jizan, and they've sent explosive boats at ships. 00:09:04.879 --> 00:09:08.320 You know, the last maritime event is September 11th. 00:09:08.480 --> 00:09:15.200 And so what I'm saying here is that like they've kind of just been, their MO was to make as much trouble as possible,

right? 00:09:15.600 --> 00:09:19.679 So they are an incredibly destructive force within Yemen. 00:09:19.759 --> 00:09:30.799 They've been getting a lot of kind of cache, I think, because people think like they're just this ragtag army that have managed to overtake, let's say, Saudi and then its support for the opposition movement. 00:09:30.960 --> 00:09:31.840 It's not like that. 00:09:32.000 --> 00:09:37.279 They have a really extensive military structure, supported on and off, of course, by Iran. 00:09:37.360 --> 00:09:44.000 And itself, there's been some assistance in, for example, intelligence and bombing, I believe by Russia is what people are claiming. 00:09:44.159 --> 00:09:49.360 But Saudi Arabia is definitely now the Houthi campaign, which has continued attacks on Saudi Arabia. 00:09:49.519 --> 00:09:54.000 So in the last 30 days, there's been kind of over a hundred strikes. 00:09:54.159 --> 00:10:00.879 You know, there's been a number that are intercepted, but they're hitting oil and gas sites the most, which is very, very serious. 00:10:01.039 --> 00:10:24.639 Of course, what they're doing is destroying the Saudi image of not just being the wealthiest, but also the place that can be a bridge between the Middle East and the West, because absolutely nothing that the Saudis have been promoting in the last few years, whether it's Red Sea tourism, it's oil and gas, it's infrastructure, it's logistics hubs, whatever, they're all under attack now by the Houthis. 00:10:24.960 --> 00:10:30.480 So they've been hitting the airports, the ports, the air bases, the desalination plants. 00:10:30.639 --> 00:10:38.639 They've focused quite a bit on the southwest and that border, in part just because the Houthis believe that there's a significant part of Saudi Arabia that's theirs. 00:10:38.799 --> 00:10:41.279 And so it's not like a typical land war. 00:10:41.360 --> 00:10:45.679 They're just lobbing missiles at them constantly and being incredibly effective at it. 00:10:45.840 --> 00:10:55.679 In part because Saudi Arabia has failed to, and then I think been incredibly reluctant to take the fight to the Houthis in a very significant way. 00:10:55.840 --> 00:11:01.440 And it's in part because their military is very well equipped, but not quite up to this task. 00:11:01.679 --> 00:11:03.519 It is rife with nepotism. 00:11:03.600 --> 00:11:05.840 It looks stronger on paper than it is in practice. 00:11:06.000 --> 00:11:13.279 That doesn't just go for the Saudi military, but also, of course, the opposition forces that it has been supporting within Yemen itself. 00:11:13.519 --> 00:11:19.120 And so it now needs to rally a lot of its allies to come and get rid of this problem. 00:11:19.279 --> 00:11:25.759 And my biggest concern is that they are going to destroy Yemen between now and Christmas. 00:11:26.000 --> 00:11:37.360 So I was watching Channel 4 news yesterday and I found myself quoting you at the telly because they had an expert on that was saying all the Houthis really want is control of Yemen. 00:11:37.440 --> 00:11:39.679 And as of was it the last time we spoke? 00:11:39.759 --> 00:11:43.519 You said they want to cause trouble, but they do have control of Yemen. 00:11:44.000 --> 00:11:47.279 Like, could you explain again like what that looks like on the ground right now? 00:11:47.519 --> 00:11:54.720 The vast majority of the population of Yemen is located in the area that the Houthis have had control of now for several years. 00:11:54.879 --> 00:12:02.639 And there was the opposition government, which is internationally recognized for whatever that means, is located in the city of Aden. 00:12:02.879 --> 00:12:04.799 And they didn't have control of that. 00:12:04.960 --> 00:12:16.159 They also, of course, like needed control of certain port cities, like Chodeda and of course Aden, Mecca, which we discussed before about the areas that they took, Mocca, which they took recently. 00:12:16.320 --> 00:12:28.159 And what they're trying to do effectively is to take the lucrative and also politically important remaining parts of Yemen from whatever type of other entity there is within the state. 00:12:28.399 --> 00:12:33.840 They have no record for being decent at actually governing any sort of area that they have. 00:12:33.919 --> 00:12:40.080 So they've had control of Sana'a the capital now for several years, and of course up and down the country because they're from northern Yemen. 00:12:40.240 --> 00:12:41.519 They have no governance plan. 00:12:41.600 --> 00:12:43.600 Like they govern through violence, right? 00:12:43.840 --> 00:12:48.000 Forcing people into positions they don't want to be in, forced conscription, all the rest of it. 00:12:48.159 --> 00:12:51.440 And it's just a, I mean, it's a pretty tragic circumstance. 00:12:51.600 --> 00:12:53.840 They can cause a lot of trouble, and they have. 00:12:54.000 --> 00:12:58.080 But I will say that an effective military counter would work. 00:12:58.240 --> 00:12:58.960 It does work. 00:12:59.120 --> 00:13:01.279 They stop when they are hit, right? 00:13:01.840 --> 00:13:06.399 But Saudi has never wanted to continue hitting them for whatever reason. 00:13:06.559 --> 00:13:07.919 Saudi doesn't want to do that. 00:13:08.000 --> 00:13:12.159 So they went into this long-term negotiation with them, and it has resulted in this. 00:13:12.320 --> 00:13:12.960 It doesn't work. 00:13:13.200 --> 00:13:16.720 Was that Saudi Arabia's way of extraditing themselves from the war? 00:13:17.120 --> 00:13:18.480 Were they trying to take a step back? 00:13:18.720 --> 00:13:23.759 I think that they were afraid that the Houthis would do exactly what they're doing now, right? 00:13:24.000 --> 00:13:33.840 And they thought, you know, the Saudis have a lot of money, and as I mentioned, they don't have a particularly good military, so they thought they'd use what they have in order to deal with this problem. 00:13:33.919 --> 00:13:36.799 And the Saudis are kind of

famous at throwing money at a problem. 00:13:36.960 --> 00:13:40.240 And there's no amount of money that is going to placate them. 00:13:40.399 --> 00:13:40.639 None. 00:13:40.879 --> 00:13:49.200 There were discussions about how this summer there was a deal on the table to normalize their engagement, but the Saudis walk away from it. 00:13:49.360 --> 00:13:58.000 I think that, like, in in some sort of sympathy for the Saudis, like the Houthis will continue doing this until they don't exist anymore, not until they're paid off. 00:13:58.240 --> 00:14:06.159 So they might as well have thought, well, we could just give them a whole bunch of money, they're going to turn around and buy a lot of weapons with it, and then hit us with those. 00:14:06.320 --> 00:14:10.159 So maybe they didn't want to buy, you know, the seeds of their own destruction. 00:14:10.320 --> 00:14:21.919 Now, finally, the Mecca deal has kind of come into focus, and Pakistan is certainly going to go after the Houthis via, I'd say, their supporters in Tehran, but also directly. 00:14:22.080 --> 00:14:24.879 Turkey is talking about it, although still remains quite hesitant. 00:14:25.039 --> 00:14:28.480 The US will get involved, I would imagine, after the midterms. 00:14:28.639 --> 00:14:39.279 They're already moving quite a number of different aircraft carriers into the region, but that's because they expect to go after, I think, another round on Iran post-midterms. 00:14:39.440 --> 00:14:49.360 I will also say, referencing an earlier point you made there about the diesel deal with Putin, it's partially because, like, there's a lot of preparations to go back into Iran. 00:14:49.440 --> 00:14:52.240 They're quite weakened at the moment, as we've discussed a few weeks ago. 00:14:52.399 --> 00:14:57.759 Their control over the Straits of Hormuz is nowhere near as strong as it was even a few months ago. 00:14:57.919 --> 00:15:00.240 Economically, internally, very weakened, etc. 00:15:00.399 --> 00:15:12.399 So the US see an opportunity to go in while they're in this state, and they will have more clarity about whether or not Israel will participate or how Israel will participate after their elections, which is at a very similar time to the US elections. 00:15:12.559 --> 00:15:16.159 The US will contribute to strikes on the Houthis, there's no question. 00:15:16.399 --> 00:15:30.159 Not just because an American died in the activities over the weekend in the airport in Riyadh, but because the Houthis are going to do terrible things for the price of oil and gas, of course, in general, if the Red Sea is also out of commission, not just the Straits of Wombus. 00:15:30.399 --> 00:15:43.840 But can I just go back and say one of the main things Iran wanted to do, and one of the reasons that the US have to do something to help the Saudis out here, is that Iran really wanted to damage the reputation of the US and the Gulf, right? 00:15:44.000 --> 00:15:47.120 To take away the US security guarantee. 00:15:47.279 --> 00:15:53.039 And Trump did a lot of damage to that himself by how he acted since March of this year. 00:15:53.279 --> 00:16:06.639 But not responding or not helping Saudi respond to this threat, not just on the kingdom, but on the region, the Red Sea, etc., is going to be the death knell for any US influence in the Gulf. 00:16:06.799 --> 00:16:10.559 They must respond if they want to keep relationships in there. 00:16:10.720 --> 00:16:20.000 Even though, as we've discussed, the US have left a lot of their bases or have temporarily left a lot of their bases in the Gulf at the moment, they're going to have to come back pretty strong. 00:16:20.159 --> 00:16:26.159 And so I really appreciate the sort of explanation about which elements of all of this are interconnected, right? 00:16:26.240 --> 00:16:34.080 The things that you just mentioned or talked about as though they're kind of separate issues, but there's kind of lines and things that cross all of them in various ways for various different reasons. 00:16:34.240 --> 00:16:41.360 And one of them that I wanted to pick up today is the Red Sea links that also brings what's happening in Ethiopia into the conversation. 00:16:41.600 --> 00:16:47.279 So what is the connection before we dive into what's been changing there with Jalale? 00:16:47.600 --> 00:16:48.480 How are they linked? 00:16:48.799 --> 00:17:05.200 I would say that one of the biggest connections that I'm just seeing on the kind of international level is if Saudi is busy and working on what's happening with the Houthis, it can no longer offer the support necessary for the horn to guide it or to at least support the decisions. 00:17:05.359 --> 00:17:16.559 And I'd like Jalale to kind of confirm or refute this for me, but I'm seeing Egypt step up a lot more this week as the regional hegemon who's going to be the counter, especially to Ethiopia. 00:17:16.720 --> 00:17:20.400 There is discussions, of course, about Egypt deploying troops in Somalia. 00:17:20.559 --> 00:17:26.400 Egypt already has about 15,000 troops in Somalia in order to do a peacekeeping mission there. 00:17:26.640 --> 00:17:34.880 But just of course, a lot of further positioning with one assumes US and Saudi blessings. 00:17:35.119 --> 00:17:52.960 But I also just think that things are getting so tense here and people are going to be concerned about domestic conflict and they're going to be concerned about regional conflict that they're going to start siloing themselves to some degree rather than offering assistance even slightly further afield for the next short while. 00:17:53.279 --> 00:17:59.759 Indeed, we've been seeing Egypt acting as a dominant actor in the Horn of Africa. 00:17:59.920 --> 00:18:15.920 This has been shown by their meeting with Earth, Sudan, and Somalia in the statement they they have released, basically stating that if any of these countries' border is not respected, there is a chance for them to respond accordingly.

00:18:16.160 --> 00:18:22.480 So we have been seeing that, but this is an escalation of what has been going on for the past few years. 00:18:22.640 --> 00:18:32.559 For example, Egypt decided to deploy its troops in Somalia because of Ethiopia's decision to sign memorandum agreement with Somaliland. 00:18:32.799 --> 00:18:39.119 Immediately, Somalia president at that time reached out to Egypt, they signed a security agreement. 00:18:39.279 --> 00:18:43.680 Basically, Egypt offering its troops to fight al-Shaba. 00:18:44.079 --> 00:18:50.720 But if you see where their troops are deployed, it's near to the Ethiopia border within Somalia. 00:18:50.880 --> 00:18:58.160 There was also internal demonstration against this move in these uh territories within Somalia, but that's another topic. 00:18:58.400 --> 00:19:13.039 So Egypt has been encircling Ethiopia in different ways to minimize or dominate Ethiopia's influence in the region, to force Ethiopia to sign an agreement on how to manage the dam over Nile. 00:19:13.359 --> 00:19:16.319 So that's basically the main reason why Egypt is involved. 00:19:16.480 --> 00:19:20.559 So, Jalali, since we last spoke, it's been pretty busy, right? 00:19:20.640 --> 00:19:28.240 There's been developments that we've been collecting, as well as accusations out there between Ethiopia and Eritrea, both openly accusing each other of aggression. 00:19:28.400 --> 00:19:33.200 There's questions around how close it's getting to a kind of full-scale war. 00:19:33.440 --> 00:19:34.720 So could you start us off? 00:19:34.960 --> 00:19:36.960 What's happened since we last spoke? 00:19:37.279 --> 00:19:46.240 So since we last spoke, so many things happened, which also includes the Eritrean troops officially entering the Ethiopian territory. 00:19:46.400 --> 00:19:48.559 Many has questioned how we know this. 00:19:48.799 --> 00:19:54.799 A lot of eyewitnesses have seen these troops being active, mobilizing within the Ethiopian territories. 00:19:54.960 --> 00:20:01.119 For example, through the Zalambesa route, going through Adikrat and Itga Hamus and so on in that area. 00:20:01.359 --> 00:20:04.799 And there are a lot of eyewitnesses from these areas. 00:20:04.960 --> 00:20:12.240 And there was also reports of multiple drone strikes by the Ethiopian military targeting the Aythrian forces as well. 00:20:12.400 --> 00:20:18.160 So it seems like these drone strikes forced the Aythron forces to retreat a bit. 00:20:18.319 --> 00:20:26.559 So last week the new developments are the government forces and allied forces have controlled multiple locations. 00:20:26.720 --> 00:20:31.119 For example, Edgahamus, where the Aythrians were seen crossing. 00:20:31.279 --> 00:20:38.319 They have controlled Addigrad, they have controlled Shere and they are encircling Aksum at this moment. 00:20:38.480 --> 00:20:41.519 But there is also mobilization by different actors. 00:20:41.680 --> 00:20:47.680 For example, the Ethiopian military has mobilized

within the AFA region near to ASEP. 00:20:47.839 --> 00:20:58.160 I want to stress, we have no information that they have crossed the border, but they have mobilized to the towns of Ildar and Bure, which are at the border within the Ethiopian territory. 00:20:58.240 --> 00:20:59.519 That's in the AFAR region. 00:20:59.599 --> 00:21:06.000 But we have also information that the AirTrain troops are also still present within the Ethiopian territory. 00:21:06.079 --> 00:21:18.240 For example, they are along the Fazi Zalambesa route, specifically to Fia Kwasi areas in Gulo Magda Warada in central Tigrai zone. 00:21:18.319 --> 00:21:19.519 So we have this information. 00:21:19.759 --> 00:21:22.319 We are currently working on updating our map. 00:21:22.400 --> 00:21:29.359 So for those interested, they can go to our website and look at our daily alert feed and also our map. 00:21:29.519 --> 00:21:36.400 These are the new developments within Tegray region, but we also see developments in Amara region as well. 00:21:36.559 --> 00:21:43.839 One of the seven members of Alliances for Survival is the Amhara Fano National Movement, AFNM. 00:21:44.079 --> 00:21:52.240 So this group last week took multiple territories under its control in North Shawa zone. 00:21:52.480 --> 00:21:59.759 So there was armament clashes on the 7th of October, at least in certain locations in this zone. 00:22:00.240 --> 00:22:07.359 And IFNM FANO MIDIAS have regained control of at least 10 territories. 00:22:07.599 --> 00:22:21.920 Our information indicates that recently large members of ENDF left the area to the north to Tegrai, so this might have opened opportunity for the Fannu Militias to control these areas. 00:22:22.079 --> 00:22:31.279 Another area which witnessed a lot of like an intense battle is in South Wellazozone, which is called Mekanesalam area. 00:22:31.440 --> 00:22:44.000 Apparently, members of the IFNM managed to encircle one unit of ENDF and to support this unit, the ENDF also used multiple drone strikes and so on. 00:22:44.160 --> 00:22:46.160 This happened on the 5th of October. 00:22:46.240 --> 00:22:55.759 And by the 7th of October, we have reports that the ENDF managed to break the encircle and retrieve their members in this area. 00:22:56.000 --> 00:23:04.559 But there's also a report that the head of this Makanasalam town police also died in this operation. 00:23:04.720 --> 00:23:09.920 So this is what we see in this area related to Alliance for Survival. 00:23:10.079 --> 00:23:30.160 There is still development, for example, today I just saw in news that the authority which was established under the Praetoria Agreement, he was appointed as a president, but he was pushed aside when TPA Lev reinstated the 2020 regional government in May and they forcibly took him from McAlee. 00:23:30.240 --> 00:23:40.960 First, he was in house arrest, and then when the violence escalated 23 September, they moved him and other officials to a hotel forcibly. 00:23:41.119 --> 00:23:48.880 And when they were leaving Macalay, they took them from the hotel forcibly and nobody knew where they were. 00:23:49.039 --> 00:23:53.599 There was information that they might be even in AirTrabody knew. 00:23:53.839 --> 00:24:00.480 But now we have information that the ANDF has rescued them or they managed to retrieve them. 00:24:00.640 --> 00:24:07.200 We don't know the details, but they are back in McAlee now for four or five uh previous officials. 00:24:07.519 --> 00:24:09.200 So that's one development. 00:24:09.359 --> 00:24:13.440 Another development is the Mekalay Airport have started working. 00:24:13.599 --> 00:24:26.319 And in the first flight, a couple of officials, namely Gita Chorada, Red One, and officials of the Tigray Peace Forces, which is currently fighting along the Indiv, also traveled to Mekalay. 00:24:26.400 --> 00:24:44.880 There were videos for their supporters welcoming them, and they also traveled to Adigrad as well over the weekend, and they are trying to talk to the people, and they are saying that until election is held, there will be a command post established in the region to govern the region. 00:24:44.960 --> 00:24:46.880 So it's it's a totally new system. 00:24:47.039 --> 00:24:55.359 And we are seeing also the federal police forces are being deployed to different areas where the government forces controlled. 00:24:55.519 --> 00:25:05.279 I believe they are being used as a holding force while the ENDF and TPF are moving forward to control multiple locations. 00:25:05.440 --> 00:25:08.880 So there are a lot of developments, but these are the highlights. 00:25:09.119 --> 00:25:17.839 It seems like there's been a distinct change in attitude towards the TPLF and their claims this time around compared to last. 00:25:18.000 --> 00:25:31.279 In the last iteration, there was a distinct kind of anti-Ethiopian component of the international community in the war between Tigrae and the federal government, and they don't have the benefit of that now. 00:25:31.440 --> 00:25:33.839 There's been no big outpouring of support. 00:25:34.000 --> 00:25:38.160 This was seen as a power grab that has been coordinated with Eritrea. 00:25:38.559 --> 00:25:54.400 I agree because in the previous round there was a large support from different Western actors and regional actors to TPLIF, but now it seems like they don't enjoy the same support they did in the previous war, so that's correct. 00:25:54.559 --> 00:25:56.799 But the narrative against the government is the same. 00:25:57.039 --> 00:25:58.880 TP Lev has been quiet. 00:25:59.119 --> 00:26:23.119 Before the escalation, they were basically almost releasing daily statements, but they have been quiet, and so far they have released two or three statements, and the narrative against the government is still the same, which is the in quotation, the genocidal federal government is entering to Gri to do the same atrocities they did previously. 00:26:23.279 --> 00:26:34.400 This is

the narrative they still have, and they are doing strategical retreat, and they will fight back the government forces to the location they prefer to fight. 00:26:34.480 --> 00:26:41.279 So this is the narrative we have been seeing through these three or two statements we have seen so far. 00:26:41.599 --> 00:27:10.640 I think one of the important consequences of this shift is that the Ethiopian government fell out with a lot of international, whether it is INGOs or even governments, and they don't feel the need to explain their actions anymore in the way they would have done five years ago, and are treating this like a an Ethiopia sovereignty issue that they will not be taking feedback on, I guess is the way I put it. 00:27:10.799 --> 00:27:22.240 And the TPLF are are left without, I would say, one of their best weapons last time, which was, I would say, the totally illegitimate use of the word genocide and their general support in many places in the West. 00:27:22.559 --> 00:27:25.440 But it brings me to an issue which is I'm curious about. 00:27:25.599 --> 00:27:30.480 Well, there's two, which is that the Alliance for Survival has not been effective. 00:27:30.640 --> 00:27:39.440 We are not seeing any surge of activity that we hadn't noticed from any of these individual active groups in the past, in even in the recent past. 00:27:39.519 --> 00:27:46.240 So there's been no coordination that has been significant to date or a surge in conflict even in the regional centers. 00:27:46.400 --> 00:27:53.359 You mentioned Amhar there recently, but there was also, you know, a significant amount of violence in both Oromia and Amhara before this. 00:27:53.519 --> 00:28:05.119 And the second point I wanted to mention was that Ethiopia's framing of this as a domestic sovereignty issue sits uncomfortably with the notion that Assub is not Ethiopian. 00:28:05.200 --> 00:28:10.559 A sub is officially, legally, in every way, not part of Ethiopian territory. 00:28:10.640 --> 00:28:17.759 And so claiming it is a violation of international norms, which Abi doesn't particularly want to engage with. 00:28:18.000 --> 00:28:22.880 Yeah, the international law considers Assab within the territory of AirTram. 00:28:23.119 --> 00:28:24.480 That's the official border. 00:28:24.640 --> 00:28:32.559 There's official border that has been agreed in 1991 when they decided to become an independent country. 00:28:32.799 --> 00:28:44.720 And even Abi received his peace prize because he decided to accept the Algiers decision when it comes to the disputed territories of Badame and others. 00:28:44.960 --> 00:28:56.079 And that's why he won the peace agreement because he normalized the relationship between the two countries after 20 plus years of dormant conflict in the area. 00:28:56.240 --> 00:29:09.680 So there is official border and Assap is officially within the Earth territory, even though the narrative at this moment within Ethiopia and the government is that Ethiopia has historical claim of Assap. 00:29:10.079 --> 00:29:14.880 So most probably they can go with that, I don't know, some court or so. 00:29:15.039 --> 00:29:18.079 But officially it's within the Earthrian territory. 00:29:18.319 --> 00:29:19.440 Yeah, that's a really good point. 00:29:19.519 --> 00:29:28.960 And I suppose like I've been thinking about, as we discussed before, the narrative for going into Assad, the narrative that Ethiopia needs to have maritime access is a strong one. 00:29:29.119 --> 00:29:32.240 It has a strong one economically, politically, historically, etc. 00:29:32.559 --> 00:29:33.920 But it's not a legal one. 00:29:34.079 --> 00:29:37.279 As in, like, it's not that they're owed this territory, right? 00:29:37.440 --> 00:29:41.920 It's that they should have it because of some characteristics of that state and that region. 00:29:42.079 --> 00:29:58.400 It will be an interesting discussion about whether or not it does become a military fight around what would be an invasion versus a diplomatic engagement over receding land to a state that believes that it both requires it and it's been historically theirs. 00:29:58.559 --> 00:30:09.920 But separate all that, I guess, I'm wondering about what your thoughts are about the likelihood that Egypt would join Eritrea in a military standoff with the Ethiopian government. 00:30:10.079 --> 00:30:22.079 I don't think Egypts want to be physically present and provide the evidence that Egypt is supporting different actors and also confirming what Ethiopia has been claiming. 00:30:22.240 --> 00:30:26.880 So I don't believe the Air Threshans will be visible within the region. 00:30:27.119 --> 00:30:30.400 But behind closed doors, so many things could happen. 00:30:30.640 --> 00:30:34.720 We are seeing a lot of videos not confirmed, it might be rumors and so on. 00:30:34.799 --> 00:30:42.960 But we are seeing a lot of weapons, they look like new rounds of weapons compared to what we have seen during the first round of conflict. 00:30:43.119 --> 00:30:49.839 So we are waiting to see what will happen if, whenever, or if Ethiopia crosses the border. 00:30:50.000 --> 00:30:50.720 That's one thing. 00:30:50.880 --> 00:31:01.279 But yesterday or the day before yesterday, the Somali president or vice president, I believe, stated that they have no interest to assist Aertra if somebody crosses the border. 00:31:01.440 --> 00:31:06.799 So that's different from what they said in Egypt a few weeks ago. 00:31:06.960 --> 00:31:12.640 So we are closely monitoring to see who will be jumping directly in this violent conflict. 00:31:12.880 --> 00:31:33.839 I will say that there's been a lot of unexpected, I would say bad moves in the sense that, as you will have noticed, Egypt is believed to have attacked hundreds of Sudanese on the border in gold mines, and in doing so, really positioning itself in quite a difficult role for a country that it's supposed to be an ally to in Alberhan. 00:31:34.000 --> 00:31:46.799

It's reportedly worked with the SOF to train about 2,000 young men from the Hadandawa, then Ben Yamir, and Rashida in eastern Sudan, and has been training the Somali forces for years. 00:31:46.960 --> 00:32:09.519 So this is, of course, one of the reasons that Eritrea may be a significant force for them to engage with in Tigray, with the Ethiopians, but that the Egyptians provided effectively the large military, the major diplomatic force, certainly the organization, and then this alliance structure, which they put under strain recently, especially with Sudan. 00:32:09.680 --> 00:32:19.200 So for Egypt's airstrike within Sudan at this specific gold mine area, this is, I believe, the second round of such strike in this year. 00:32:19.440 --> 00:32:23.599 And I believe Egypt wants to give this area to investors. 00:32:23.759 --> 00:32:26.240 It's within Sudan territory, but it's disputed. 00:32:26.400 --> 00:32:31.359 And there are a lot of illegal miners from the Sudan side, Sudanese. 00:32:31.599 --> 00:32:38.480 And I believe this second round of drone strikes killed more people compared to the previous drone strikes. 00:32:38.640 --> 00:32:48.000 And Aertrea has been involved in training both the SAF and its allied forces, either within its territory or at the border. 00:32:48.079 --> 00:33:08.000 And even at some point, a large number of Sudanese air forces, like planes, drones, and so on, used to be within AirTrea for safety reasons when the RSF, the Rapid Support Forces, started using drone strikes and attacking different locations, Port Sudan and so on. 00:33:08.160 --> 00:33:12.240 So AirTra used to be the keepers of these weapons as well. 00:33:12.400 --> 00:33:24.319 So we are keeping an eye on how the others will join if they join the conflict within Ethiopia, or if the conflict started between Ethiopia and AirTra. 00:33:24.559 --> 00:33:28.160 But when it comes to SEMDO, we have clear evidences. 00:33:28.400 --> 00:33:30.960 For example, there was a conference within Sudan. 00:33:38.640 --> 00:33:41.920 And in this conference, we have seen different representatives. 00:33:43.839 --> 00:33:49.440 We have seen representatives of SAF, we have seen the TRAN representative, we have seen ONLEF. 00:33:49.519 --> 00:33:54.799 OENLEV is the Ogadian National Liberation Front, which is one of the members of the Alliances for Survival. 00:33:54.880 --> 00:33:57.440 So there are different people who have been seen. 00:33:57.519 --> 00:33:58.799 The video is still available. 00:33:58.960 --> 00:34:00.079 It's like three hours. 00:34:00.240 --> 00:34:04.559 People could go and see the videos of this conference. 00:34:04.720 --> 00:34:12.639 So Sudan is somehow involved, but I don't think they will be interested to be involved directly because there's a war in Sudan. 00:34:12.960 --> 00:34:18.159 And for example, at this moment there is a very active conflict within the Blue Nile state. 00:34:18.320 --> 00:34:27.920 Blue Nile state is the state or the

area which borders the Spanish Angulgums region of Ethiopia, which hosts the dam over Nile. 00:34:28.079 --> 00:34:40.079 So there's like different layers and dynamics to consider when it comes to these conflicts, which which seems like separate, but they are somehow linked with invisible lines. 00:34:40.320 --> 00:34:50.159 Yeah, and and uh lest we become, you know, the Red Stream Brigade linking different conspiracies with each other, I will say there's a few things that we'll be looking out for, especially this week. 00:34:50.320 --> 00:34:55.760 The first, of course, is Ethiopian strikes on Eritrean territory, whether it's drones or elsewhere. 00:34:55.920 --> 00:34:59.840 The Eritreans are particularly poorly equipped to deal with drones. 00:35:00.000 --> 00:35:16.559 And so whether or not the Ethiopian strikes anywhere in Eritrean territory, whether or not there's an Egyptian deployment to Eritrea or Eritrean sites, and of course, then any disruption of the Djibouti corridor, which I think will again raise the stakes for everybody. 00:35:16.719 --> 00:35:27.760 So it's been a week where I think the stakes have been massively raised, and they are continuing to do so for all actors around the Red Sea, not just the ones we've spent today discussing. 00:35:30.320 --> 00:35:36.000 For the shortest answer in the world to round off today, I'm gonna pose to you the question that Al Jazeera is asking. 00:35:36.079 --> 00:35:39.840 They have written the headline, Ethiopian Eritrea, ramp up rhetoric. 00:35:40.000 --> 00:35:41.920 Are they inching towards war? 00:35:42.239 --> 00:35:42.559 Yes. 00:35:42.800 --> 00:35:44.159 We shall wait and see. 00:35:44.480 --> 00:35:46.880 But the possibility is higher. 00:35:47.119 --> 00:35:56.880 By the way, they they might be fighting within the Tigraite region, uh, especially along the routes of the Lambassine Fuzzy. 00:35:57.039 --> 00:36:02.800 We have information that, for example, near to Adigrat area, there was a battle yesterday. 00:36:02.960 --> 00:36:13.280 We are just trying to confirm whether the clash was between ENDF and TDF or whether it was between ENDF and the Air Trian forces. 00:36:13.440 --> 00:36:21.599 So within the Tigray region, that will happen, definitely as long as the Air Trian forces are present within the Tegray region. 00:36:22.000 --> 00:36:32.159 The question is whether the Ethiopian government or the Ethiopian forces will cross the border and fight within the Air Trian territory. 00:36:32.320 --> 00:36:34.400 That's the question I would like to answer. 00:36:34.639 --> 00:36:49.360 The possibility is high because, as I have already said, there have been multiple justifications being prepared by the government, the Ethiopian side, to cross the border and to have the fight within the air territory. 00:36:49.519 --> 00:36:51.039 That's why the possibility is high. 00:36:51.199 --> 00:37:01.920 For example, last week the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that they have the right to defend themselves because now the Air Trans forces are within the Ethiopian territory. 00:37:02.159 --> 00:37:06.320 So this gives Ethiopia to push maybe within Trian territory. 00:37:06.559 --> 00:37:09.360 The second issue is the question of the Red Sea access. 00:37:09.519 --> 00:37:14.320 Is the AB government going to cross the border and officially control ASEA? 00:37:14.639 --> 00:37:17.920 That's another possible justification to cross the border. 00:37:18.239 --> 00:37:23.360 And are the TPLF officials going to retreat to Aertria? 00:37:23.599 --> 00:37:24.800 That's another justification. 00:37:24.880 --> 00:37:33.199 If they do that, it gives a justification for the Ethiopian government to cross the border in the name of chasing these officials. 00:37:33.280 --> 00:37:34.960 So the justifications are high. 00:37:35.199 --> 00:37:36.320 Okay, I think that's it. 00:37:36.639 --> 00:37:38.800 We know what we're looking for in the next week. 00:37:38.960 --> 00:37:40.320 Thank you very much, both. 00:37:40.400 --> 00:37:42.000 It was a delight to chat. 00:37:42.480 --> 00:37:51.360 You've been listening to Conflicts of Interest with Professor Cleaner Raleigh, brought to you by ACLED, the world's leading source of political violence and protest data. 00:37:51.599 --> 00:37:57.119 Subscribe so you never miss an episode, and follow us on socials for updates in the meantime.