บทถอดความฉบับเต็มของ First Base Blackjack Seminar Las Vegas Part II

00:04:15.280 --> 00:04:18.399 If you turn this on its side, you have this. 00:04:18.560 --> 00:04:19.360 And what is that? 00:04:19.519 --> 00:04:20.399 The shoe. 00:04:20.639 --> 00:04:22.399 So let's diagram it. 00:04:22.959 --> 00:04:25.759 This right here, here's a low round. 00:04:26.000 --> 00:04:36.879 Here's a high round, here's a high round, here's a high round, here's a neutral round, here's a neutral round, here's a low round, here's a low round, here's a neutral, low high. 00:04:38.160 --> 00:04:42.959 Low, high, high, high, neutral, neutral, low, low, neutral, low, high. 00:04:43.279 --> 00:04:45.360 What can someone tell me about this clumping? 00:04:45.600 --> 00:04:46.079 It's simple. 00:04:46.160 --> 00:04:49.439 You just look at it, the tens are right here in one section. 00:04:50.000 --> 00:04:51.439 What game type are you in? 00:04:51.600 --> 00:04:56.240 You're in a type uh game where you must use advantage betting. 00:04:57.439 --> 00:05:04.079 Or in rare instances when you're winning hand after hand after hand uh up as you win. 00:05:04.160 --> 00:05:08.160 That's if you're winning, and even you're winning these hands as well because the deal is breaking. 00:05:08.879 --> 00:05:10.480 You know, you uh it's very difficult. 00:05:10.639 --> 00:05:12.639 Those type of opportunities are not prevalent. 00:05:12.879 --> 00:05:16.160 This is more likely nine times a ten will be an advantage bet situation. 00:05:16.399 --> 00:05:18.000 Maybe ninety-eight times out of a hundred. 00:05:18.079 --> 00:05:21.920 The other two times out of a hundred in this situation, you would use up as you win. 00:05:22.480 --> 00:05:23.600 Everyone follow that? 00:05:27.040 --> 00:05:28.720 Uh I do that mentally as well. 00:05:28.879 --> 00:05:30.480 You can get the best, you can do that. 00:05:30.879 --> 00:05:33.360 I know the dealer is breaking 30% of the hands. 00:05:33.680 --> 00:05:37.360 I just watched uh I note the exact number of hands is broken. 00:05:37.600 --> 00:05:39.120 I get a mental picture of that. 00:05:39.439 --> 00:05:41.600 Uh if you want to note it with the chip, please. 00:05:41.920 --> 00:05:42.879 Do it the chips. 00:05:43.199 --> 00:05:44.959 There's no shame in do using chips. 00:05:45.360 --> 00:05:45.600 Okay? 00:05:46.079 --> 00:05:48.639 It actually might for most of you it's the best thing to do. 00:05:48.800 --> 00:05:50.639 Just offset the chip, of course. 00:05:50.959 --> 00:05:52.480 You'll see where the dealer brakes come from. 00:05:52.560 --> 00:05:55.759 But the key thing with brakes is what how many is he breaking or not? 00:05:56.079 --> 00:06:01.920 If he's breaking 30% of the time, it's close, it's that's close to what basic strategies it takes. 00:06:02.160 --> 00:06:04.399 You would favor basic and the basic grounds. 00:06:04.639 --> 00:06:08.800 You attend in the hair, you know the hairline decisions that you have to make sometimes. 00:06:09.120 --> 00:06:11.600 The ground is uh it's leaning towards low.

00:06:11.680 --> 00:06:14.000 There's around 20% attends on the layout. 00:06:14.639 --> 00:06:17.120 So favor basic in that situation. 00:06:17.920 --> 00:06:19.040 Okay, you follow me? 00:06:21.120 --> 00:06:23.279 Any other questions before I move on? 00:06:24.160 --> 00:06:30.079 The chip thing, I mean you obviously have one for one shoe and you start the next shoe, you start a whole new chip thing. 00:06:30.319 --> 00:06:30.560 Exactly. 00:06:31.199 --> 00:06:33.040 But one thing I want to say before you start this question. 00:06:34.800 --> 00:06:35.040 Excuse me? 00:06:35.199 --> 00:06:36.959 Yeah, you just break it down and start over new. 00:06:37.279 --> 00:06:38.959 And the second one and then you start the third round. 00:06:40.240 --> 00:06:41.759 One thing, remember, what are we tracking here? 00:06:41.920 --> 00:06:44.480 50% tens ratio areas. 00:06:44.639 --> 00:06:46.000 That's a high round. 00:06:46.399 --> 00:06:50.639 A low round, we're saying it's less than way, significantly less than 25. 00:06:50.800 --> 00:06:53.279 I'd say less than 20% tens. 00:06:53.920 --> 00:06:57.680 And a neutral round is just that, between around 20 and 45% tens. 00:06:58.000 --> 00:07:00.720 These are very dense areas, they're hard to shuffle out. 00:07:00.879 --> 00:07:04.639 It will keep perpetuating itself in this model. 00:07:04.720 --> 00:07:15.920 In the old MBJ model, when we said 4 out of 13 is neutral, 5 out of 13 is high, 3 out of 13 is low, all you have to do is inject 110 into that 13, and it could change the entire signature too volatile. 00:07:16.000 --> 00:07:24.879 It is not volatile in this way, that's why the master Ellis has, you know, has realized yes, these game signatures won't change if they're viewed in this manner. 00:07:25.120 --> 00:07:25.920 That is clumps. 00:07:26.079 --> 00:07:28.000 That is a clump configuration. 00:07:28.879 --> 00:07:30.399 Another mechanical question. 00:07:30.560 --> 00:07:37.040 If uh one asks a dealer for ten pink chips because you want to use them for your neutral rounds, they're not usually. 00:07:37.199 --> 00:07:37.360 Yeah. 00:07:37.600 --> 00:07:37.680 Yes. 00:07:38.000 --> 00:07:39.360 They usually don't want to give them to you. 00:07:39.759 --> 00:07:42.800 Use white, red, green. 00:07:43.279 --> 00:07:46.079 Start bringing more money to the casino with you so you can get some greens. 00:07:46.160 --> 00:07:49.120 Remember, you're not gonna see many high tens ratio rounds anyway. 00:07:49.279 --> 00:07:51.680 Uh six greens will suffice for a shoe. 00:07:51.839 --> 00:08:00.720 So if you buy in with um$200,$220, say, you'll get$150, ask for$150 green, 40 red, 10 white. 00:08:00.800 --> 00:08:03.759 They'll give you the white, they'll they'll say sure, because they think you're gonna be a tipper. 00:08:04.160 --> 00:08:08.639 But obviously, you're not using it for your for your signature, but you don't have to let them know that. 00:08:11.519 --> 00:08:12.079 Oh, will that? 00:08:12.639

--> 00:08:14.319 Okay, that's a good suggestion right there. 00:08:14.399 --> 00:08:23.920 If you feel worried that they're gonna pinpoint you as having some sort of, you know, diabolical strategy to defeat them, buy your chips out of craftsable. 00:08:24.160 --> 00:08:25.680 He said they'll give you any denomination you want. 00:08:26.800 --> 00:08:30.160 And they're gonna give you all the red you need when you say that. 00:08:30.319 --> 00:08:31.519 Yeah, don't you don't need pink. 00:08:31.600 --> 00:08:32.799 You can go again. 00:08:33.200 --> 00:08:39.840 As long as you have$200, listen, you guys bought a manual here that's$400 and you've paid$500 for a world-class manual. 00:08:40.000 --> 00:08:45.360 If you're going to the casino at less than$200, that means uh, you know, I don't that's a very bizarre situation. 00:08:45.440 --> 00:08:48.080 I don't think anyone in this room goes at less than$200. 00:08:49.039 --> 00:08:49.360 Okay. 00:08:53.519 --> 00:08:54.240 Any other questions? 00:08:55.200 --> 00:08:56.480 You've got to move on. 00:08:58.960 --> 00:08:59.120 Okay. 00:08:59.919 --> 00:09:06.240 Um, let's go on to uh next uh um I'm gonna go to the next topic. 00:09:06.320 --> 00:09:06.720 Let me see. 00:09:06.879 --> 00:09:09.200 Oh, table oh, change the tape. 00:09:09.600 --> 00:09:16.080 Now I'm gonna give you um specific uh advice on the best way to utilize no rent. 00:09:16.240 --> 00:09:23.120 Okay, everyone everyone's familiar with it. 00:09:23.440 --> 00:09:24.879 When to play it. 00:09:25.440 --> 00:09:32.639 You do not want to play no rent in most situations because tell me why, what does that do to the game? 00:09:33.279 --> 00:09:36.320 Exactly, it keeps changing the player number. 00:09:36.559 --> 00:09:39.519 You want to play no rent in this situation. 00:09:39.679 --> 00:09:42.799 You're in a game, you're winning, you're doing phenomenal on your high bets. 00:09:42.879 --> 00:09:45.759 You're catching double high cards, you're winning 70% of the high bet. 00:09:46.080 --> 00:09:49.360 You're getting slaughtered after all neutral and low rounds. 00:09:49.440 --> 00:09:51.039 Literally slaughtered, you're winning 20%. 00:09:51.919 --> 00:09:58.799 Don't give them, don't give them, you know, that those low bets, okay? 00:09:59.039 --> 00:10:01.200 Start playing, unless your spread is way up. 00:10:01.279 --> 00:10:05.039 I'm talking about if you're in a game and you've been there for a while and you're a one-to-five spread, fine. 00:10:05.279 --> 00:10:09.120 Your advantage on your high bet will negate the slaughtering on the low bets. 00:10:09.279 --> 00:10:16.879 But suppose you're in a game where you're winning 60% of your high bets, you're doing very well, and you're getting massacred on the low bets, but you don't want to depart the game. 00:10:17.120 --> 00:10:17.440 Okay? 00:10:18.159 --> 00:10:27.919 What you do here is just like um uh an aircraft would do, suppose that they want they're in the midst of having difficulties. 00:10:28.559 --> 00:10:35.200 Uh, and uh we'll even say uh that's not a good example, but all right, just follow me for a minute. 00:10:35.279 --> 00:10:37.200 They jettison fuel, okay? 00:10:37.360 --> 00:10:41.279 They want to take as much danger as possible out of that crash landing as possible. 00:10:41.440 --> 00:10:43.600 So they have a button on the cockpit panel. 00:10:43.679 --> 00:10:44.720 It does jettison fuel. 00:10:44.799 --> 00:10:50.080 It re the fuel literally gets thrown out of the airplane, gets blown out. 00:10:50.399 --> 00:10:57.440 What the pilot there is doing is he's trying to reduce risk to everyone on that plane when landing that it doesn't blow up. 00:10:57.679 --> 00:10:57.919 Okay? 00:10:58.240 --> 00:10:59.279 That's what you're doing here. 00:10:59.360 --> 00:11:00.159 You're in a game. 00:11:00.720 --> 00:11:05.279 The casino is blowing you up during low and neutral rounds, but you're blowing them up after high rounds. 00:11:05.360 --> 00:11:06.000 Let's suspend. 00:11:06.399 --> 00:11:15.200 So if we stay in that game, we're gonna have no advantage because the slaughtering on the low rounds and the neutral rounds, you know, when we're not making a hard bet is negating our advantage in the high bet. 00:11:15.519 --> 00:11:20.320 We have no recourse here then to a leave a winning situation, or b, you play no rent. 00:11:20.480 --> 00:11:23.600 Do not give them the opportunity to slaughter you. 00:11:23.679 --> 00:11:33.120 You've already realized, hey, uh, if I play a spread here, this the low round rent that we're paying will eat up my profits that I make on the high bet. 00:11:33.279 --> 00:11:33.519 Fine. 00:11:33.759 --> 00:11:37.279 Once you have ascertained that and only that, you go to a no-rent situation. 00:11:37.360 --> 00:11:44.799 What you do is, after your next high bet, if it's not a high bet, just tell the I'm a little tired, I'm gonna, you know, sit out a few hands. 00:11:45.039 --> 00:11:46.559 They'll still say, okay. 00:11:46.720 --> 00:11:49.919 And then when the high better, go in again. 00:11:50.159 --> 00:11:50.480 Okay? 00:11:51.759 --> 00:11:54.639 Now, if after that one, there's another high bet, fine. 00:11:54.720 --> 00:11:57.039 You just place it and they'll think everything's, you know, kosher. 00:11:57.440 --> 00:12:01.120 But uh, if you drop out again, you just say, uh, I just don't feel lucky. 00:12:01.200 --> 00:12:03.600 Keep making excuses, they won't bother you after a while. 00:12:03.759 --> 00:12:07.440 If the player starts screaming, fine, just ignore them, completely ignore them. 00:12:07.600 --> 00:12:13.679 You stay at that no-rent situation for as long as you are winning and catching double high cards. 00:12:13.919 --> 00:12:18.399 That that strategy has saved me so many times from exiting a game. 00:12:18.480 --> 00:12:25.039 I can tell, I'm sure, has everyone been in one of those games where you're doing great on your high bet, but getting slaughtered on

the low bets? 00:12:25.440 --> 00:12:26.960 Everyone's seen that, right? 00:12:27.679 --> 00:12:31.759 There's there's there's a tactic right there to keep you in that game. 00:12:32.000 --> 00:12:32.639 Yeah. 00:12:32.960 --> 00:12:34.399 No mid-shoe entry. 00:12:34.639 --> 00:12:37.360 No midshoe entry, you can't do no rent, obvious. 00:12:37.600 --> 00:12:45.279 Then with the guy at second base, you sit out, and then when you want to make your your big bet, you say to the guy, let me play on your hand, because he's now the first base player. 00:12:45.759 --> 00:12:47.840 Oh, you're sitting at first second base? 00:12:48.000 --> 00:12:50.080 I'm sitting at first base and I'm getting killed. 00:12:50.159 --> 00:12:50.799 I sit out. 00:12:50.879 --> 00:12:51.120 Right. 00:12:51.279 --> 00:12:53.759 I can't re-enter the shoe because there's no mid-shoe entry. 00:12:54.000 --> 00:12:56.720 Then drop out before you drop out, second base. 00:12:57.039 --> 00:12:57.279 Yeah, right. 00:12:57.440 --> 00:12:58.240 I see my advantage. 00:12:58.320 --> 00:13:01.200 He's now becomes de facto the first base player. 00:13:01.360 --> 00:13:01.679 Right. 00:13:01.919 --> 00:13:03.200 I now would make a big bet. 00:13:03.279 --> 00:13:04.559 I can't would you put him on a shoe? 00:13:05.200 --> 00:13:09.919 You're gonna ask him if you're diplomatic enough, he'll he'll accept your offer and he'll say, okay. 00:13:10.000 --> 00:13:11.360 And then sooner or later he'll catch on. 00:13:11.440 --> 00:13:14.159 Hey, this guy's obviously knows when to make a bet. 00:13:14.480 --> 00:13:20.960 He'll more than he'll welcome your bet every time because he'll he'll see, hell, every time this guy bets, I'm gonna win. 00:13:21.120 --> 00:13:28.720 So obviously he's gonna invite you, he's gonna hope you're betting every time, but you're not, but he'll see when the favorable opportunity is to bet if he's intelligent. 00:13:28.879 --> 00:13:33.039 A lot of these people, you know, that sit down here are dumber than a bag of ronks. 00:13:33.279 --> 00:13:36.320 So so just keep that in mind. 00:13:38.720 --> 00:13:39.200 Yeah. 00:13:39.679 --> 00:13:45.600 Rather than uh changing the number of players at the table, why not just increase your spread to 10 to 1 or something like that? 00:13:45.919 --> 00:13:49.120 Because you have to work up to that kind of spread. 00:13:49.279 --> 00:14:02.480 If you, as I said two minutes ago, if you're already up to like a one-to-five spread, if you get even when you're getting slaughtered, you'll have enough horsepower on that, on the, you know, on the amount you're winning on the on the high bets to offset the slaughtering on the low bets. 00:14:02.639 --> 00:14:07.919 That's not that's a rare, you know, circ that's a circus that comes up a lot, fine. 00:14:08.000 --> 00:14:19.120 But if you're in a game where you're you've made maybe seven or eight high bets and you've won five, but you're just getting massacred on low bets, protect those high

bets and drop out of the low the slaughtering. 00:14:19.440 --> 00:14:23.360 Because if you're only up five or six is three to four units, you're not betting a one to five spread yet. 00:14:23.440 --> 00:14:25.600 You're still at it, maybe you're at a one to three. 00:14:25.840 --> 00:14:30.159 You're not you're not at a high enough spread to offset the slaughtering. 00:14:30.639 --> 00:14:34.320 You're going, you're taking, you're shallanking, you're taking on your low bets. 00:14:35.039 --> 00:14:43.120 How does the number of players affect um first face regarding um the length of the clumps, the length of the clumping? 00:14:43.279 --> 00:14:44.639 Okay, great question. 00:14:45.120 --> 00:14:54.559 The clumping, obviously, uh more players there are, the more clumps, but the more players you have there, the more the dealers' ten up instances increase. 00:14:54.639 --> 00:14:55.519 Do you follow me? 00:14:55.759 --> 00:14:58.080 You could be catching, the clumping's increasing, great. 00:14:58.159 --> 00:14:59.679 You're gonna catch more first cart ends. 00:14:59.759 --> 00:15:00.320 So is the dealer. 00:15:00.480 --> 00:15:01.039 Do you follow me? 00:15:01.200 --> 00:15:02.240 It offsets. 00:15:02.639 --> 00:15:04.879 Does everyone follow that answer I just gave to that question? 00:15:04.960 --> 00:15:07.519 It's an important theoretical example. 00:15:08.240 --> 00:15:08.799 How about sure? 00:15:09.120 --> 00:15:09.759 How about that? 00:15:09.840 --> 00:15:10.879 Okay, how about if I call it? 00:15:11.039 --> 00:15:11.919 Let me address this again. 00:15:12.639 --> 00:15:14.480 Okay, let me exactly. 00:15:14.799 --> 00:15:18.320 The more players at the game, you don't even have to worry about that. 00:15:18.399 --> 00:15:22.480 The more players at the game, the more the dealer is going to catch a 10 up. 00:15:22.559 --> 00:15:24.320 Now remember, what is a 10 up for the dealer? 00:15:24.399 --> 00:15:26.240 A first card 10, that's his first card. 00:15:26.480 --> 00:15:32.240 So if you're in a game and you're you're getting 50% first card 10s, but so is the dealer. 00:15:32.399 --> 00:15:35.279 You're that then you're not doing anything there. 00:15:35.440 --> 00:15:38.159 You're you're not negating the negative advantage in that game. 00:15:38.240 --> 00:15:40.480 The dealer is offsetting your first card 10s with him. 00:15:40.639 --> 00:15:45.840 So you also have to be aware of how many times in this game uh is the dealer getting a 10 up, first card 10. 00:15:45.919 --> 00:15:47.759 Remember, a 10 up is a dealer, first card 10. 00:15:47.919 --> 00:15:58.159 As I said in this, your you know, your pre-flight check, you are looking at the dealer's break ratio and the number of 10 ups. 00:15:58.960 --> 00:15:59.279 Okay? 00:16:00.799 --> 00:16:10.720 Also, I was gonna add that that the lengths of the clumps and the lengths of the um and the number of players are gonna determine whether or not you get that second card. 00:16:11.200 --> 00:16:13.919 No, what determines that is the tens ratio. 00:16:14.559 --> 00:16:14.879 Okay. 00:16:15.279 --> 00:16:24.080 If you're catching it at the high tens ratio rounds, again, the second card is purely uh it's not a random act. 00:16:24.159 --> 00:16:32.000 It's you're trying to define in that shoe to the art of catching another high card is simply the art of determining how the tens are dispersed. 00:16:32.159 --> 00:16:42.240 If they are evenly dispersed, then you have a better, then you have, you know, if they're evenly dispersed, then that dispersal is favoring your getting a second card. 00:16:42.320 --> 00:16:56.399 But in a tight, tight situation, you're gonna catch a f you're going to catch a second card because they're so woven together about as you add players, it's gonna stretch out, but it's so heavily clumped anyway that it will continue around and it will continue to the dealer. 00:16:56.559 --> 00:16:57.840 You follow me? 00:16:58.480 --> 00:17:00.639 Um kind of. 00:17:00.879 --> 00:17:01.200 Okay. 00:17:02.559 --> 00:17:02.960 Chen. 00:17:03.360 --> 00:17:08.400 If if say for argument's sake, you're getting uh 60% first card tens, no matter how you do it, right? 00:17:08.559 --> 00:17:10.640 Oh, it's you're getting 60% first card tens. 00:17:10.880 --> 00:17:11.200 Yeah. 00:17:11.359 --> 00:17:16.720 And the dealer's getting 60% first card tens, but my second card is coming after his first card 10. 00:17:16.880 --> 00:17:18.720 I'm getting the next card after his 10. 00:17:18.880 --> 00:17:26.079 Which, if he's getting that 10 up all the time, I'm still assuming that 10's following 10s, I'm still in better position. 00:17:26.480 --> 00:17:28.960 You can't get into that type of thinking at the table. 00:17:29.119 --> 00:17:33.440 What you want to simply define is where uh the you're not where the win is coming from. 00:17:33.599 --> 00:17:35.359 Are they coming after high rounds or low rounds? 00:17:35.440 --> 00:17:39.680 You don't don't think well if the deal like it's 10, then the clump's ending over here and then it's over there. 00:17:39.759 --> 00:17:39.920 No. 00:17:40.000 --> 00:17:40.480 You yeah. 00:17:40.720 --> 00:17:43.279 He's showing me it's still that there's a 10-card clump. 00:17:43.359 --> 00:17:44.799 If he's getting a 10 on top, my second. 00:17:45.920 --> 00:17:57.920 Hopefully, what you're doing why I'm uh or involved why you're betting after three cards is you're in a clump, it will probably end right after you, because there aren't that many clumps that are 10, 15 cards in a row. 00:17:58.240 --> 00:18:06.720 When it comes around again, when it comes around again, again, if it's in a high card clump, if it's a h if it's a tightly woven high card clump, think about it. 00:18:07.039 --> 00:18:08.000 10 up is the indicator. 00:18:08.880 --> 00:18:12.960 No, I know it's an indication, but also you will cat you already have your first card 10. 00:18:13.200 --> 00:18:13.440 Okay? 00:18:13.759 -->

00:18:18.559 It could it changes often enough away from that that the deal is not 10 up all the time, you understand? 00:18:18.720 --> 00:18:21.839 But if per chance he is, the game is over clumped. 00:18:22.000 --> 00:18:23.759 And you're gonna push 20s with him. 00:18:24.000 --> 00:18:25.680 Only in a severe can you visualize that? 00:18:25.759 --> 00:18:26.400 Only in a severely. 00:18:26.880 --> 00:18:29.839 But no matter what he turns up, it's an indication of my second card. 00:18:30.319 --> 00:18:30.720 Excuse me? 00:18:31.119 --> 00:18:34.960 No matter what he turns up in a sense, is an indication of my second card. 00:18:35.440 --> 00:18:41.279 Basically, yes, but it but what I'm saying is it couldn't it's depends on time. 00:18:41.440 --> 00:18:41.920 My second card. 00:18:42.240 --> 00:18:46.319 No, that does not necessarily mean a ten up for the dealer. 00:18:46.480 --> 00:18:46.960 Do you understand? 00:18:47.200 --> 00:18:56.559 Well, I see in a situation where a dealer's getting a lot of tens up, you're telling me it doesn't get to stay out of that game, but on the other hand, if I cut my second card is coming in. 00:18:57.200 --> 00:19:02.559 Uh uh only in rare circumstances will you get the dealer getting a 10 up and you're getting a 20. 00:19:02.640 --> 00:19:08.640 And if you're both pushed, you're worrying about that because you're he's getting a 10 up, but your fill card is a 10 because he has a 10 up. 00:19:08.720 --> 00:19:09.759 It's finishing a clump. 00:19:09.920 --> 00:19:10.319 Fine. 00:19:10.400 --> 00:19:13.359 If the clumps are that lengthy, then the casinos have done their job. 00:19:13.519 --> 00:19:14.240 Congratulate them. 00:19:14.319 --> 00:19:16.799 They have clumped all the tens into one section, no one wins. 00:19:17.279 --> 00:19:18.799 It alternates as it goes around the table. 00:19:19.039 --> 00:19:28.319 A lot of games it does alternate, and no one, uh unless you uh no one has a crystal ball or a Ouija board to say the clump is going to end after three cards, the clump is gonna end after five cards. 00:19:28.400 --> 00:19:29.759 It's impossible to determine that. 00:19:29.839 --> 00:19:33.839 You should not waste your brain power thinking about such because it's mathematically unquantifiable. 00:19:37.839 --> 00:19:50.079 I understand that, and that means you want to hope for a 10 up because that means you also 50% of the time the clump could change. 00:19:50.160 --> 00:19:50.880 That's what I'm saying. 00:19:50.960 --> 00:19:52.240 You're not trying to win everything. 00:19:52.480 --> 00:19:56.000 You want to win about seven if you win 70% of the hands, that's great. 00:19:56.960 --> 00:19:58.960 Yeah, I know, I know, but I'm trying to um yeah. 00:19:59.279 --> 00:20:02.160 If he gets a low on his up card, I'm probably gonna get a low on my own. 00:20:02.640 --> 00:20:03.680 Not necessarily, you don't know. 00:20:04.559 --> 00:20:08.319 You don't know what that's why you're looking where are the winners coming from. 00:20:08.559 --> 00:20:10.079 Double high card is usually a winner. 00:20:10.880 --> 00:20:15.920 Okay, then why do you think I have where are the winners coming from on the pre-flight checklist before you increase your spread? 00:20:16.079 --> 00:20:24.720 You don't want to get into a game with a spread, even a one-to-three spread where you know, where you're trading 20s with a dealer. 00:20:24.880 --> 00:20:25.440 Just what? 00:20:25.680 --> 00:20:26.319 What are you saying? 00:20:26.400 --> 00:20:28.480 Uh, we want to hear it if you have something to say. 00:20:30.640 --> 00:20:32.400 No, I'm not I'm not being combative with you. 00:20:32.480 --> 00:20:33.279 We're trying to learn here. 00:20:33.440 --> 00:20:35.440 No, but I mean if a clump is a clump. 00:20:36.160 --> 00:20:39.599 You know, oily shows a 10 up, and I'm gonna get the next card after this deal. 00:20:39.680 --> 00:20:40.319 I kind of would be able to do that. 00:20:40.480 --> 00:20:41.519 We can't learn about that though. 00:20:41.599 --> 00:20:46.720 You don't I understand what you're saying, but no, the second card is you we have no control over it. 00:20:46.880 --> 00:20:52.640 The only anyone who could tell you they could predict uh the that the clump is gonna be seven cards and like the five cards, like you don't know. 00:20:52.799 --> 00:20:57.680 The first, what we're doing is reducing risk on the first card by hitting into a clump. 00:20:57.759 --> 00:20:58.480 Do you follow that? 00:20:58.640 --> 00:21:01.920 The second card, the only way we could, we have no way of determining that. 00:21:02.079 --> 00:21:05.279 The only way we could reduce risk is to know where the where the winners are coming from. 00:21:05.359 --> 00:21:05.759 Do you understand? 00:21:07.279 --> 00:21:07.519 Good. 00:21:07.839 --> 00:21:09.039 Okay, I get my ten. 00:21:09.359 --> 00:21:09.680 Right. 00:21:09.839 --> 00:21:12.000 Okay, the dealer comes around and he gets a 10. 00:21:12.240 --> 00:21:12.480 Okay. 00:21:12.960 --> 00:21:16.160 I got, I mean, I just saying it's just if the dealer is a dealer might be stiff, sir. 00:21:16.400 --> 00:21:16.880 70, 80%. 00:21:17.119 --> 00:21:18.480 Yeah, but if he's yeah, no, I'm not gonna be able to do it. 00:21:18.960 --> 00:21:19.920 But the thing is, good. 00:21:20.000 --> 00:21:28.799 If you get your first card 10 and say 50% of the time the dealer gets a first card 10 in those high bet rounds that you're getting, okay, say he does, say it won't even happen 50. 00:21:28.960 --> 00:21:39.039 Say it happens 40%, and you're catching um, say, 50, 60% first card 10s, the hands where the dealer doesn't get a first card 10, you should you understand? 00:21:39.119 --> 00:21:40.240 It's a random area. 00:21:40.319 --> 00:21:43.599 It's going to be 4 and 13, the fill, the fill ratio. 00:21:43.680 --> 00:21:44.240 You understand? 00:21:44.400 --> 00:21:51.279 The second card, I don't, the only way you can even harness any control over it,

because we don't know what we're keying off of. 00:21:51.359 --> 00:21:56.400 The second card's just cards pulling out of a shoe, is knowing where our best hands are coming after. 00:21:56.960 --> 00:21:59.039 What we're trying to do, this is not an exact science. 00:21:59.200 --> 00:22:02.079 We're trying to Reduce risk in an intelligent manner. 00:22:02.319 --> 00:22:10.720 The way to do that is A try and control probability in increasing our chances to catching a first card 10. 00:22:10.799 --> 00:22:12.400 Everyone here is well versed in that. 00:22:12.559 --> 00:22:21.759 And the only mathematical and logical way to increase your probability that you're going to catch a second card high is to know after what rounds the highs are coming. 00:22:21.839 --> 00:22:25.359 A if the dealer gets a 10 up and starts pushing at you, you know what kind of game you're in. 00:22:25.519 --> 00:22:26.319 Over clumped. 00:22:26.400 --> 00:22:28.000 It's time to say bye-bye. 00:22:28.319 --> 00:22:30.240 There's nothing you can do about that. 00:22:30.559 --> 00:22:31.359 Except leave. 00:22:32.079 --> 00:22:32.319 Okay? 00:22:32.720 --> 00:22:34.880 That's the second card, we there is no. 00:22:34.960 --> 00:22:35.920 We can't predict. 00:22:36.160 --> 00:22:41.279 We can only eliminate risk and turn it in our favor if we know where our double high comes are coming from. 00:22:41.359 --> 00:22:44.559 If it doesn't do the job, if the dealer's also getting a double high card, fine. 00:22:44.640 --> 00:22:45.839 We gave it our best chance. 00:22:46.000 --> 00:22:49.119 We tied them, we leave, we try and find a better game. 00:22:50.400 --> 00:22:53.119 Is that basically the answer? 00:22:53.839 --> 00:22:54.160 Okay. 00:22:56.799 --> 00:22:58.480 I can see both of your points. 00:22:58.720 --> 00:22:59.039 Okay. 00:22:59.599 --> 00:23:00.799 He's saying if. 00:23:01.119 --> 00:23:01.599 I understand. 00:23:01.759 --> 00:23:06.480 If the dealer gets a first card ten, that means it's an it's a high card clump, so you want to see him get a first card ten. 00:23:07.839 --> 00:23:17.440 No, I know, but you're saying the math of clumping is you're gonna get the second car ten only if if the dealer's card before it was a ten because you're it if the clump is coming that way. 00:23:17.599 --> 00:23:18.480 I know what you're saying. 00:23:18.640 --> 00:23:19.680 I can visualize it. 00:23:20.079 --> 00:23:20.640 That's true. 00:23:20.799 --> 00:23:24.319 In some in a lot of instances, it's gonna be that way, but in a lot of instances it is not. 00:23:24.400 --> 00:23:25.839 The car just gonna be rambled. 00:23:28.640 --> 00:23:29.039 Excuse me? 00:23:29.279 --> 00:23:29.920 That's a that's a good thing. 00:23:32.480 --> 00:23:32.799 I agree. 00:23:34.160 --> 00:23:35.279 Listen to him for a moment. 00:23:40.079 --> 00:23:44.160 But you've already you're you're gonna get your tens at a greater hit rate than the dealer for the civil fact. 00:23:44.319 --> 00:23:48.640 You can control after what round, after why you increase your bet. 00:23:48.880 --> 00:23:49.359 He can't. 00:23:49.519 --> 00:23:52.160 He's always gonna get that fifth or seventh card. 00:23:52.319 --> 00:23:59.680 He can't raise his bet, you know, saying, okay, I'm only paying you guys at the rate of you have to bet two chips to win one now. 00:23:59.920 --> 00:24:00.240 Okay. 00:24:02.480 --> 00:24:02.640 Yeah. 00:24:02.880 --> 00:24:05.920 What I was trying to say is I can see both your points. 00:24:06.160 --> 00:24:08.240 You don't want to see the dealer get a 10 up. 00:24:08.400 --> 00:24:08.640 Right. 00:24:08.799 --> 00:24:11.440 But you don't mind the dealer getting a seven, eight, or nine. 00:24:13.440 --> 00:24:14.240 You're gonna see that well. 00:24:14.400 --> 00:24:16.640 You're hoping the dealer gets a seven eight or nine. 00:24:19.039 --> 00:24:21.359 You'll get a high card for your second card. 00:24:21.920 --> 00:24:28.160 You don't want to see the dealer get a lot of the fives and sixes because you might be then continue that low cost and get some steps. 00:24:28.400 --> 00:24:35.920 Uh, but the thing is, I understand, I know that's what he's saying, but again, this the the You're not trying to influence a dealer's up card. 00:24:36.000 --> 00:24:39.519 Obviously, you're trying to influence where your double high cards are coming from. 00:24:39.680 --> 00:24:43.200 If that's not doing it in that game, the dealer is getting a lot of ten ups and twenties. 00:24:43.680 --> 00:24:47.519 You gave it your best chance, your most educated guest. 00:24:48.319 --> 00:24:52.480 You didn't turn out, okay, you go to another table with a very small win or loss. 00:24:53.440 --> 00:25:03.119 The difference is you're talking about 10 ups, and he's saying, well, don't worry about uh deal a high card up, which could be an eight, nine, or or high seven. 00:25:03.440 --> 00:25:04.720 Honestly, you want to make money. 00:25:04.880 --> 00:25:06.640 Remember, we're on a very fine line here. 00:25:06.799 --> 00:25:14.319 We've, you know, our percentage is, you know, neg it's not negligible, it's but we're, you know, we're not dealing with a 70% advantage here. 00:25:14.480 --> 00:25:22.400 It's you know, our advantage, you know, is slightly above random probability, and to for it to balance towards a casino table is very easy. 00:25:22.480 --> 00:25:26.000 All you have to do is let your guard down at even one table, and that's what will happen. 00:25:27.759 --> 00:25:27.839 Right. 00:25:27.920 --> 00:25:29.359 The dealer's got the first 10 up. 00:25:29.519 --> 00:25:33.119 You get to 20, and you'll still happens, you'll find a blue end then. 00:25:33.279 --> 00:25:33.759 Over clump. 00:25:34.079 --> 00:25:34.160 Right. 00:25:34.400 --> 00:25:35.680 Probably more than likely. 00:25:36.000 --> 00:25:38.160 Likely you're in an overcompany and you have to recognize that. 00:25:38.240 --> 00:25:41.200 You can't get upset over it, you can't get emotional over

it. 00:25:41.279 --> 00:25:43.920 You just say, okay, listen, you did you did your job. 00:25:44.000 --> 00:25:45.680 You gave it the best try you can. 00:25:45.920 --> 00:25:49.119 The comp the clumping composition in that game is unbeatable. 00:25:49.200 --> 00:25:53.279 The casinos have done their job as well to clump the cards up so no one could win. 00:25:53.359 --> 00:25:55.920 Fine, you go find a more favorable opportunity. 00:25:56.559 --> 00:26:00.480 What happened to the 50% advantage in MBJ at first base? 00:26:00.880 --> 00:26:01.599 What about it? 00:26:01.920 --> 00:26:03.039 Well, it's not there anymore. 00:26:03.200 --> 00:26:04.640 You said you said it's only a couple of years. 00:26:04.799 --> 00:26:05.519 No, I didn't mean that. 00:26:05.599 --> 00:26:06.079 You know what I mean. 00:26:06.160 --> 00:26:07.119 It could be even at 8%. 00:26:07.839 --> 00:26:10.480 It's a very fine line between winning and losing, you understand? 00:26:10.640 --> 00:26:14.079 If you make a couple of bonehead errors, that negates your rate. 00:26:14.160 --> 00:26:16.319 Because remember, the rent rounds negate your advantage. 00:26:16.480 --> 00:26:19.119 If you make an error on your high bets, that's it. 00:26:19.279 --> 00:26:20.319 Do you follow me? 00:26:20.559 --> 00:26:30.319 The low ratio rounds, the rounds you're playing the rent in, those keeping error is out of it, but uh obviously these percentages are based on the proper plate, right? 00:26:30.480 --> 00:26:31.680 So the 15% is still there. 00:26:32.319 --> 00:26:32.960 Oh, you can get more. 00:26:33.119 --> 00:26:41.599 If you're um astute, you can get that's easy that's easily attainable if you do everything that I do, which is a lot, but n everyone in this room could do it. 00:26:41.680 --> 00:26:42.640 It's not too difficult. 00:26:42.799 --> 00:26:44.880 It's just discipline and practice. 00:26:45.039 --> 00:26:49.359 I didn't come up with all these things just by magic or hoping or wishing. 00:26:49.519 --> 00:26:53.440 I came up with them because I sat down and practiced and studied the theory. 00:26:53.599 --> 00:26:58.079 If I didn't know the theory of these, would I have been able to come up with all these little nuances of the game? 00:26:58.240 --> 00:27:00.960 Seriously, because I know the theory behind clumping. 00:27:01.039 --> 00:27:02.960 You've got to know the theory behind clumping. 00:27:03.039 --> 00:27:08.160 You've got to get a handle on what clumping is doing in that game in order to defeat it. 00:27:08.319 --> 00:27:09.839 It's like trying to crack a code. 00:27:10.000 --> 00:27:14.559 If you get the combination to that safe, you can get in there anytime you want. 00:27:14.799 --> 00:27:15.440 Same with here. 00:27:15.519 --> 00:27:20.400 Once you can crack that code in that game, you can get your hands into that safe, the DLS chip tray when you want. 00:27:22.319 --> 00:27:30.640 Under your first base system, would you also want to see what's happening after neutral rounds as well, like you did for high and low rounds? 00:27:31.279 --> 00:27:32.160 Uh, okay. 00:27:32.400 --> 00:27:36.160 If you're catching first card tens after everything, then that's what I'm saying. 00:27:36.319 --> 00:27:39.440 You're in a game where you're in a window of plumping, that's what I'm saying. 00:27:39.519 --> 00:27:42.240 You can control your first card 10. 00:27:42.400 --> 00:27:49.599 If it's in a game where the 10s ratio is scattered throughout the shoe, it is a random act, you catching a second card. 00:27:49.680 --> 00:27:54.960 Anyone who tells you it's not is you know, but think about it. 00:27:55.119 --> 00:28:00.880 Even with random probability, okay, these are the chances, these are the cards you can fill with. 00:28:01.039 --> 00:28:08.480 Another ace, there you go, blackjack, a deuce, a twelve, three, a four, five, and a six. 00:28:08.720 --> 00:28:09.039 Okay? 00:28:09.680 --> 00:28:11.680 These you can do something with. 00:28:11.839 --> 00:28:14.319 These are usually meaning a quick death. 00:28:14.559 --> 00:28:17.519 That you can is uh not that great. 00:28:17.759 --> 00:28:18.079 Okay? 00:28:18.400 --> 00:28:22.640 Then you have eight, nine, ten, jack, queen, king. 00:28:22.880 --> 00:28:23.200 Okay? 00:28:23.440 --> 00:28:24.240 Let's count it. 00:28:24.400 --> 00:28:27.599 One, two, three, four, five, six, seven. 00:28:27.759 --> 00:28:30.000 Seven out of thirteen are very favorable. 00:28:30.319 --> 00:28:32.319 Seven out of thirteen will get you a winner. 00:28:32.720 --> 00:28:36.079 Out of these, say only what you'll only win one and you lose two. 00:28:36.400 --> 00:28:37.920 You're now at eight out of thirteen. 00:28:38.079 --> 00:28:40.240 Out of these, say you only win one and lose two. 00:28:40.640 --> 00:28:43.440 Nine out of thirteen, that's what you're gonna win. 00:28:43.920 --> 00:28:44.240 Okay? 00:28:44.480 --> 00:28:45.359 You follow me? 00:28:45.519 --> 00:28:49.519 That's random probability, your chance is random probability when you catch a first card ten. 00:28:49.839 --> 00:28:53.119 So if you ascertain you're in a random situation, good, great. 00:28:53.359 --> 00:28:54.960 We'll win nine out of thirteen hands. 00:28:55.039 --> 00:28:55.519 I can take that. 00:28:55.680 --> 00:28:56.480 Can everyone else? 00:28:57.279 --> 00:28:57.599 Okay? 00:29:00.960 --> 00:29:02.720 Any any other questions on this? 00:29:04.240 --> 00:29:06.559 Oh, you want to take the towel mellow? 00:29:25.839 --> 00:29:39.759 Uh one thing I'd like you to understand about first base, I know John covered a lot of stuff, is the when we say the percentage of how frequently you'll win when you get a first card 10. 00:29:39.920 --> 00:29:46.720 The way we did that is we actually tracked that ratio over thousands and thousands of hands. 00:29:47.200 --> 00:29:53.519 Recognize that that ratio isn't always 70% in every game. 00:29:53.680 --> 00:29:56.400 It can it can it can run around quite a bit. 00:29:56.640

--> 00:30:06.720 Uh, for instance, if you are in a highly, highly clumped game, you'll find that the dealer will match your 10 quite frequently. 00:30:06.960 --> 00:30:12.400 Whenever you get a first card 10, the dealer gets a first card 10, they want your advantage. 00:30:12.480 --> 00:30:14.960 You're now playing her even from that point. 00:30:15.519 --> 00:30:21.680 And in some games, you'll find the percentage is even higher than 70%, in some games it'll be lower than 70%. 00:30:22.000 --> 00:30:33.119 But if you look at thousands of actual games, you'll find that just from that basis, when you get a first card 10, you're looking at winning 7 to 8 percent of the hands. 00:30:34.079 --> 00:30:36.559 Okay, let's move on to something else. 00:30:36.720 --> 00:30:49.519 I want to talk to you a little bit about the merits of playing dealer strategy in low ratio rounds. 00:30:51.200 --> 00:30:56.880 You'll find these kinds of statistics in an average game. 00:30:57.119 --> 00:31:16.240 You'll find about one-third, if you if you track the ratios, I know a lot of you have, in an average game, you'll find about one-third of the shoe is high ratio, and uh two-thirds is low ratio. 00:31:16.559 --> 00:31:23.279 Every now and then you can catch a shoe that is one hundred percent low ratio. 00:31:24.000 --> 00:31:33.839 The only thing that happened is that you've got all of your tens in one clump or one area of the shoe, and that area got cut off by the cutoff card. 00:31:34.000 --> 00:31:37.279 So you end up with a you've we've all had those nightmarish shoes. 00:31:37.359 --> 00:31:41.440 You keep waiting for the tens, and you're waiting for the tens, the shoes over, the tens never came out. 00:31:41.599 --> 00:31:43.039 Uh that can happen. 00:31:43.279 --> 00:31:55.519 There was a game that uh Harvey and I played uh the Thursday of Labor Day weekend, where uh Harvey and uh Michael Blacklock and I were playing. 00:31:55.599 --> 00:31:58.559 I was playing first, Harvey was playing third, and Michael was in the middle. 00:31:58.640 --> 00:32:01.119 There was nobody else in the game. 00:32:01.359 --> 00:32:03.359 And the dealer started dealing from the beginning. 00:32:03.759 --> 00:32:04.960 We first sat down at the table. 00:32:05.200 --> 00:32:06.720 She started dealing from the beginning of the shoe. 00:32:06.799 --> 00:32:12.960 We got halfway through the shoe, halfway through the shoe, a total of 11 tens had fallen. 00:32:13.440 --> 00:32:16.799 So I said, Harvey, and we weren't winning, obviously. 00:32:17.119 --> 00:32:19.440 Total of 11 tens fell and half a shoe. 00:32:19.680 --> 00:32:24.319 So I said, Harvey, you know, that's the 11th 10 that's fallen. 00:32:24.799 --> 00:32:28.559 And Harvey just got up from his chair and he says, let's go find a better game. 00:32:28.720 --> 00:32:32.880 So Harvey and I took off, and Michael sat right there. 00:32:33.200 --> 00:32:36.079 I don't know where the heck my brains were. 00:32:36.640 --> 00:32:42.319

But of course, Michael sat right there because that means all the tens are gonna come out now and the rest of the shoe. 00:32:42.559 --> 00:32:46.160 Michael won$4,500 in the rest of the shoe. 00:32:46.799 --> 00:32:48.960 Just won just about every single hand. 00:32:49.039 --> 00:32:52.640 I don't know what was wrong with uh Harvey and I. 00:32:52.720 --> 00:32:54.640 We just didn't, we weren't thinking about it. 00:32:54.720 --> 00:33:06.880 But let me talk to you about playing dealer strategy because I know that it's the hardest part of MBJ to actually do in a casino. 00:33:07.359 --> 00:33:14.559 It's not difficult, by the way, for new players, for players where that learn how to play cards on MBJ. 00:33:14.720 --> 00:33:15.279 They do it. 00:33:15.359 --> 00:33:18.000 If anything, they'll hit too much, if anything. 00:33:18.319 --> 00:33:26.720 But for people that learned basic strategy first and then learned MBJ, that's the biggest change that we have to make. 00:33:26.799 --> 00:33:44.960 And especially if you get in a game and a couple of your MBJ plays backfire on you right off the start, and they really look foolish, don't they, when they do backfire, like you hit a 13, you draw, you draw a 10, you know, and end up giving the dealer her hand and making everybody mad. 00:33:45.039 --> 00:33:46.000 It can happen. 00:33:46.559 --> 00:33:47.839 And it will happen. 00:33:48.079 --> 00:33:56.640 But I want to just uh oh, and by the way, when we have that one-third ratio of high card tens, I forgot to finish that. 00:33:57.920 --> 00:34:03.200 The you can get shoes where you don't even have a third of the shoes, high card. 00:34:03.279 --> 00:34:10.559 You can get it, you can get shoes or games, for instance, that have shoes, maybe only has 25% high tens ratio. 00:34:10.639 --> 00:34:15.920 That just means the the tens are clumped much cleaner in that in that game. 00:34:16.159 --> 00:34:25.920 And a game that has only a 25% high cards area in it, is very difficult to it's very difficult to play. 00:34:26.639 --> 00:34:31.920 Because you're going to push a lot with the dealer when you get to the high, when you get to your favorable area. 00:34:32.159 --> 00:34:35.280 Games could easily be overcome, particularly here in Atlantic City. 00:34:35.360 --> 00:34:40.639 We don't see it that much in Vegas, but we see it in Atlantic City and just about everywhere else, all the time. 00:34:41.199 --> 00:34:48.960 Now, I want you to think in terms for a minute that the low ratio portion of the shoe, I don't want to talk about neutrals right now. 00:34:49.039 --> 00:34:55.519 I'm just gonna talk about high ratio and low ratio, but that the low ratio of the shoe is dealer favorable. 00:34:55.679 --> 00:34:57.679 I want you to think of it in terms of dealer favorable. 00:34:57.840 --> 00:35:00.800 Yeah, we're gonna win as many hands as we can in the low ratio. 00:35:00.960 --> 00:35:04.800 Sometimes you can actually even win more than half of them in the low ratio. 00:35:05.199 --> 00:35:14.000 But your real job in the game is to win the high ratio rounds and to win as many of the low ratio rounds as you possibly can. 00:35:14.159 --> 00:35:21.840 We might call low ratio as the rent that we have to pay in order to play the high ratio rounds. 00:35:22.079 --> 00:35:27.119 One of the tricks you can do, by the way, in Atlantic City is not play the low ratio rounds. 00:35:27.199 --> 00:35:29.440 Just don't play until you see the tens come out. 00:35:29.679 --> 00:35:32.320 Most casinos in Atlantic City will let you do that. 00:35:32.480 --> 00:35:35.679 Some will let you do it in Vegas, particularly if you're tipping. 00:35:35.920 --> 00:35:41.280 Almost every dealer in Atlantic City will let you do that, particularly if you tip a little bit. 00:35:41.360 --> 00:35:44.239 That's one reason that you might tip to do that. 00:35:44.480 --> 00:35:46.400 But that's not what I want to talk about right now. 00:35:46.480 --> 00:35:49.119 I want to talk about when we're playing the whole shoe. 00:35:49.280 --> 00:36:01.760 And I want to talk about the fact that about two-thirds of the shoe, therefore, it being low ratio, is dealer favorable, and one-third of the shoe being high ratio is player favorable. 00:36:02.400 --> 00:36:08.480 Now think about it, it's easiest to explain if I explain it from the standpoint of a head-to-head game. 00:36:08.639 --> 00:36:14.239 I'm going to give you three reasons, three reasons to play dealer strategy. 00:36:14.400 --> 00:36:20.800 Dealer strategy is a triple-edged sword, and very few people realize this. 00:36:21.199 --> 00:36:36.239 You take a game, you're playing head-to-head, and you play it basic strategy, and you count the high ratio rounds, and you count the low ratio rounds, and you come up with a difference of those ratio of one-third, two-thirds. 00:36:36.320 --> 00:36:40.320 One-third high ratio to two-thirds low ratio. 00:36:41.039 --> 00:36:47.039 So one-third of the shoe was advantageous to you, two-thirds was advantageous to the dealer. 00:36:47.280 --> 00:36:54.559 Now you take that same game, you take that same game and play the low ratio rounds dealer strategy. 00:36:55.360 --> 00:36:56.239 What happens? 00:36:56.480 --> 00:36:58.880 The ratio in the whole game is going to change. 00:36:58.960 --> 00:37:04.880 It's going to go roughly 50% high ratio and 50% low ratio. 00:37:05.199 --> 00:37:11.760 Recognize that one of the reasons that you have so many low ratio rounds is because nobody hits in low ratio rounds. 00:37:11.840 --> 00:37:16.239 If nobody hits in the low ratio rounds, the cards last longer and longer and longer. 00:37:16.320 --> 00:37:19.920 It takes you forever to get out of the low ratio rounds because nobody's hitting in the game. 00:37:20.079 --> 00:37:23.519 If you're playing head-to-head, you're playing basic strategy, you're not hitting. 00:37:23.599 --> 00:37:24.960 You never hit in low ratio rounds. 00:37:25.199 --> 00:37:28.559 You

might, you know, you're going to hit if you got a nine or a ten or eleven. 00:37:28.719 --> 00:37:33.360 But once you got a 12, 13, 14, 15, and 16, you're going to stand. 00:37:33.440 --> 00:37:37.119 They don't even like it in this city when you hit a 12 against a two. 00:37:37.440 --> 00:37:38.159 They don't like it. 00:37:38.320 --> 00:37:40.000 They get mad at you, you know. 00:37:40.159 --> 00:37:41.679 So the players, they won't hit. 00:37:41.760 --> 00:37:43.360 So those cards last forever. 00:37:43.519 --> 00:37:48.000 It takes you forever to get through those cards and to get into the high ratio. 00:37:48.239 --> 00:37:51.920 Now, what do we do in the high ratio versus the basic strategy player? 00:37:52.079 --> 00:37:54.800 The basic strategy player hits everything in a high ratio. 00:37:54.880 --> 00:38:04.079 He's going to hit any 12, any 13, any 14, any 15, or any 16 against any up card of 7, 8, 9, or 10. 00:38:04.239 --> 00:38:06.320 That's the way he was taught to play. 00:38:06.480 --> 00:38:06.800 Okay? 00:38:07.199 --> 00:38:08.239 So what did he do? 00:38:08.400 --> 00:38:14.960 He waited for the maximum dealer break area of the shoe to stop hit, to start hitting. 00:38:15.199 --> 00:38:19.679 The maximum dealer break area of the shoe is also his maximum break area. 00:38:19.920 --> 00:38:24.559 If he hits during that portion of the shoe, he's going to break ahead of the dealer. 00:38:24.719 --> 00:38:25.679 So we don't. 00:38:25.760 --> 00:38:32.480 So we use up less cards in the high ratio round, stretching the high ratio round out, okay? 00:38:32.719 --> 00:38:44.239 Whereas a basic strategy player, he hits more in that portion, shrinking the high ratio cards down, shrinking the number of rounds possible down, and he does the exact opposite and low ratio. 00:38:44.400 --> 00:38:46.559 So he's penalized himself, hasn't he? 00:38:46.639 --> 00:38:59.199 He's making the dealer favorable part of the shoe last twice as long as it needs to last, and he's making his favorable player area, player favorable area of the shoe go by too quickly. 00:38:59.280 --> 00:39:00.559 He's penalizing himself. 00:39:00.719 --> 00:39:02.400 I want you to think about that. 00:39:02.559 --> 00:39:08.079 You know, it isn't just a question, dealer strategy, of winning more hands. 00:39:09.199 --> 00:39:16.239 You are gonna win more hands, but that isn't even necessarily the biggest advantage of dealer strategy. 00:39:16.400 --> 00:39:20.800 The biggest advantage is probably the fact that you just change the ratio of the whole game. 00:39:20.960 --> 00:39:24.639 That's why I say the more MBJ players are in the game, the better off you are. 00:39:24.800 --> 00:39:27.360 The more you're going to change that ratio. 00:39:27.519 --> 00:39:31.440 That's why playing MBJ head-to-head works so well. 00:39:31.599 --> 00:39:33.440 You're 100% of the players, aren't you? 00:39:33.599 --> 00:39:37.199 Now you got 100% of the players playing dealer strategy at low ratio rounds. 00:39:37.360 --> 00:39:39.199 The dealer's gotta do it, right? 00:39:39.360 --> 00:39:45.199 And when you do it, you know the dealer's gonna look at you, it's gonna look at you like you're stupid when you make these low ratio rounds. 00:39:45.280 --> 00:39:47.360 But the dealer never gives that a thought. 00:39:47.519 --> 00:39:51.039 You're getting through these low ratio rounds very, very quickly. 00:39:51.280 --> 00:40:02.159 For instance, if we are playing a uh sacrifice hand in a head-to-head game, in the low ratio rounds, we want to split with that sacrifice hand. 00:40:02.320 --> 00:40:05.519 Do everything you can, get rid of low ratio cards. 00:40:05.599 --> 00:40:08.159 That's what the sacrifice hand is there for. 00:40:08.239 --> 00:40:09.599 They're dealer favorable. 00:40:09.840 --> 00:40:11.760 Absorb them, get them out of the game. 00:40:11.840 --> 00:40:15.679 Just like the dealer takes tens out of the game, she deals everybody a two, a two, ten, twenty. 00:40:16.079 --> 00:40:18.719 You're taking low cards, you're taking her cards out of the game. 00:40:18.800 --> 00:40:21.440 You're literally cheating, but you're doing it legally. 00:40:21.519 --> 00:40:21.840 Okay? 00:40:21.920 --> 00:40:24.159 You're taking her cards out of the game. 00:40:24.480 --> 00:40:31.280 That's why the two the two hands, one of the reasons why playing two hands uh works so well. 00:40:31.760 --> 00:40:36.480 So now let me tell you what third, the third edge of this sword. 00:40:37.760 --> 00:40:46.559 If you're playing dealer strategy and the dealer's playing dealer strategy, there ain't gonna be no dealer biases because the cards don't know who the hell's dealing now. 00:40:47.119 --> 00:40:47.679 Alright? 00:40:47.920 --> 00:40:48.639 You understand? 00:40:48.719 --> 00:40:50.480 There can't be any dealer biases. 00:40:50.559 --> 00:40:52.159 They're just going to vanish. 00:40:52.320 --> 00:40:52.719 All right? 00:40:52.800 --> 00:40:54.079 They'll go right away. 00:40:54.320 --> 00:41:03.679 When we play head to head our way, you will almost always knock the almost always knock the dealer off of a dealer strategy. 00:41:03.840 --> 00:41:12.639 The only if, and I guarantee you that if you play long enough, you will knock the dealer off of a dealer off of dealer bias, not dealer strategy, but you'll knock her off of dealer bias. 00:41:12.800 --> 00:41:14.159 You will you'll absolutely do it. 00:41:14.239 --> 00:41:19.119 The only thing is, is that isn't a reason now to go through your stop loss. 00:41:19.280 --> 00:41:26.800 You don't say, well, you know, Davis says I can't go through my stop loss, but he also tells me to knock the dealer off of this dealer bias, so I gotta go through my stop loss to do that. 00:41:26.880 --> 00:41:29.280 No, don't go through your stop loss to do it. 00:41:29.440 --> 00:41:31.760 That's going a little bit too far. 00:41:32.320 --> 00:41:40.159 But that's why I'm going to tell you that I win about 80% of

the heads-up games that I play, and that's why. 00:41:40.320 --> 00:41:49.440 That's why you've changed the whole ratio of the game, you change the ratio between dealer favorable and player favorable, you're going to win more of those rounds. 00:41:49.519 --> 00:41:51.760 How does a dealer win 60% of the hands? 00:41:51.920 --> 00:41:56.559 She doesn't do a play in our play in basic strategy, they only win 40%. 00:41:57.119 --> 00:41:59.039 She does it play in dealer strategy. 00:41:59.199 --> 00:42:03.360 Dealer strategy wins more hands in the low ratio area. 00:42:03.519 --> 00:42:06.159 Look at it from a practical standpoint. 00:42:06.559 --> 00:42:14.960 The card counter, when he counts cards, is counting cards for one reason and one reason only. 00:42:15.440 --> 00:42:17.679 Many of you are ex-card counters. 00:42:17.760 --> 00:42:21.280 Some of you still count cards, you just don't do it when I'm around. 00:42:22.400 --> 00:42:24.480 Alright, here's what's going on. 00:42:25.440 --> 00:42:29.920 All card counting tells you is where the dealer is most likely to break. 00:42:30.079 --> 00:42:32.480 Sure, it's trying to tell you that there's extra tens. 00:42:32.719 --> 00:42:33.360 Well, so what? 00:42:33.519 --> 00:42:35.360 There's extra tens in the rest of the cards. 00:42:35.440 --> 00:42:38.800 What good does that do you that it doesn't do the dealer? 00:42:39.039 --> 00:42:41.360 It doesn't help your hand at all. 00:42:41.760 --> 00:42:45.199 It hurts the dealer because tens make the dealer break. 00:42:45.360 --> 00:42:47.599 That's what you're looking for when you count cards. 00:42:47.679 --> 00:42:51.119 You're looking for what area is the dealer going to break the most in. 00:42:51.360 --> 00:42:53.199 So what does the card counter do? 00:42:53.360 --> 00:42:54.559 He finds that area. 00:42:54.639 --> 00:42:56.239 Now he's got all these tens in there. 00:42:56.400 --> 00:42:57.360 What's he start doing? 00:42:57.519 --> 00:42:58.880 He starts hitting, doesn't he? 00:42:59.039 --> 00:43:05.519 Or what did he do all the accounting for to find out where the dealer's going to break if he's going to hit and break ahead of the dealer anyway? 00:43:05.760 --> 00:43:09.679 You know, that's why it makes a little sense, this card counting. 00:43:09.840 --> 00:43:17.840 He does all this counting to find out where the dealer is most likely to break, and where the dealer is most likely to break, so is he. 00:43:18.079 --> 00:43:18.960 So is he. 00:43:19.360 --> 00:43:21.920 And what does he do with a 16 against a 10? 00:43:22.639 --> 00:43:23.840 He hits it. 00:43:24.320 --> 00:43:26.000 And he gets a 26. 00:43:26.880 --> 00:43:28.800 That's hard to win with 26. 00:43:29.440 --> 00:43:31.920 You know, that's not the place to hit. 00:43:32.400 --> 00:43:34.079 That's the place to stand. 00:43:34.800 --> 00:43:35.360 Why? 00:43:35.599 --> 00:43:45.760 Well, there's two things that can go wrong when you hit in a high ratio area. 00:43:46.480 --> 00:43:50.800 Number one, you're hitting in the dealer's weakest area. 00:43:51.039 --> 00:43:54.480 Her mo her highest break vulnerable area. 00:43:56.400 --> 00:44:03.760 If it's high tens ratio, your chance of hitting successfully is less than anywhere else in the game. 00:44:04.000 --> 00:44:07.199 You have less chance of hitting successfully in a high tens ratio area than anywhere else. 00:44:07.440 --> 00:44:07.599 Why? 00:44:07.679 --> 00:44:09.119 Well, because that's where the tens are.