บทถอดความฉบับเต็มของ Six Forces Reshaping Independent Auto Repair

part on the repair agreements that have governed access for conventional vehicles. 00:03:08.000 --> 00:03:14.159 That is real momentum, but momentum and a complete solution are not the same thing. 00:03:14.479 --> 00:03:24.719 The central question is whether federal policy will protect access for the vehicles arriving tomorrow, not just preserving a framework developed for the vehicles of yesterday. 00:03:25.039 --> 00:03:29.759 A modern repair can require far more than a service manual and a scan tool. 00:03:29.920 --> 00:03:42.879 It can require wireless vehicle data, secure authentication, software pairing, remote commands, cloud-based diagnostics, and permission to activate a replacement component. 00:03:43.120 --> 00:03:56.719 If the law protects traditional diagnostic information, but leaves those newer pathways under manufacturer control, independent repairs may technically have a right to repair while lacking a practical way to complete the job. 00:03:56.960 --> 00:04:02.640 This is why Autocare continues to press for enforceable protections covering all vehicle systems. 00:04:02.879 --> 00:04:05.520 The political opening is significant. 00:04:05.840 --> 00:04:10.159 And we thank Donald Trump for his leadership on Right to Repair and Dr. 00:04:10.319 --> 00:04:12.560 Dunn's leadership on the Repair Act. 00:04:12.800 --> 00:04:18.399 The task now is making sure that the outcome is technologically relevant and enforceable. 00:04:18.639 --> 00:04:24.159 And we really finish that job that the memorandum has set forth. 00:04:25.199 --> 00:04:32.399 Our second headline has to deal with USMCA and tariffs and how uncertainty is becoming an operating cost. 00:04:32.879 --> 00:04:36.959 And for the aftermarket, uncertainty itself has a price. 00:04:37.199 --> 00:04:46.720 The 2026 review of the United States Mexico-Canada agreement has placed automotive rules of origin and regional supply chains back under the microscope. 00:04:46.959 --> 00:04:54.879 At the same time, the administration has continued using tariffs and vehicle-related duties as leverage in broader trade disputes. 00:04:55.120 --> 00:04:58.240 So why does that matter to the autocare industry? 00:04:58.480 --> 00:05:04.800 Well, a parts journey is rarely as simple as it was made here and it was sold there. 00:05:05.040 --> 00:05:10.160 Raw material may come from one country, a subcomponent may be produced in another. 00:05:10.480 --> 00:05:15.199 Final assembly, packaging, distribution may each happen someplace else. 00:05:15.519 --> 00:05:22.720 So some products can cross a North American border more than once before it ever reaches a repair facility. 00:05:22.879 --> 00:05:29.199 When duty treatment changes or might change, businesses have to make decisions before they know the final rules. 00:05:29.439 --> 00:05:30.879 Do you buy more inventory? 00:05:31.040 --> 00:05:32.240 Do you change a supplier? 00:05:32.399 --> 00:05:34.079 Do you reprice the catalog? 00:05:34.240 --> 00:05:35.920 Do you absorb a cost temporarily? 00:05:36.160 --> 00:05:37.519 Pass it through immediately. 00:05:37.759 --> 00:05:39.680 Each choice can carry risk. 00:05:39.920 --> 00:05:42.480 And there's also a consumer consequence, right? 00:05:42.720 --> 00:05:50.079 When prices rise, vehicle owners don't stop having worn breaks, failed sensors, or leaking pumps, right? 00:05:50.240 --> 00:05:56.879 They're gonna delay that repair, reduce the scope, choose a lower priced option, or put the expense on their credit card. 00:05:57.120 --> 00:06:06.160 So trade policy really travels all the way from a customs classification to a safety decision at the service counter. 00:06:06.560 --> 00:06:13.120 Our third news story is about how the market is growing, but what kind of growth is it? 00:06:13.439 --> 00:06:21.680 The 2026 joint channel forecast projects 5.2% growth in the US light-duty automotive aftermarket this year. 00:06:21.920 --> 00:06:27.680 It also projects that the market will exceed$500 billion by 2029. 00:06:28.079 --> 00:06:41.120 The broader autocare industry, including medium and heavy duty, is for grass to grow 5.4% in 2026 and reach$676.5 billion in 2029. 00:06:41.360 --> 00:06:49.920 Those are really strong numbers and they reflect durable demand and aging vehicle populations and the essential nature of maintenance and repair. 00:06:50.160 --> 00:06:55.199 Americans depend on their vehicles, and those vehicles have to be kept in service. 00:06:55.600 --> 00:07:00.319 But sales growth does not automatically mean every business is healthier, right? 00:07:00.560 --> 00:07:03.519 Revenue can rise because shops complete more work. 00:07:03.680 --> 00:07:09.600 It can also rise because labor, parts, insurance, rent, equipment, and software also costs more. 00:07:09.759 --> 00:07:11.920 There's a whole environment around this. 00:07:12.160 --> 00:07:16.399 So consider a repair order that is 8% higher than it was a year ago. 00:07:16.639 --> 00:07:27.759 If the part costs more, technician pay has increased, the shop added another software subscription, and the procedure takes longer, the higher ticket may not produce a higher margin. 00:07:27.920 --> 00:07:32.959 Growth at the industry level can coexist with compression at the business level. 00:07:33.199 --> 00:07:37.199 And that distinction matters for how we talk about the forecast. 00:07:37.360 --> 00:07:45.040 The number is not merely a scoreboard, it's an invitation to ask where does the growth originate and where does that value really land? 00:07:45.360 --> 00:07:50.079 The risk is assuming that a rising market lifts every participant automatically. 00:07:50.319 --> 00:07:51.360 It might not. 00:07:51.600 --> 00:07:57.839 And businesses still have to translate demand into productive capability and profitable work. 00:07:58.879 --> 00:08:05.280 Now, our fourth headline is how software is becoming the repair bottleneck. 00:08:05.360 --> 00:08:09.439 I'm talking about programming

and the software divine vehicle. 00:08:09.920 --> 00:08:19.839 We did some repair shop research that was published back in March, and in case you missed it, it found that roughly half of incoming vehicles require programming. 00:08:20.000 --> 00:08:29.040 And shops have also described compatibility issues, software bugs, time-intensive procedures, and the costs of keeping tools current. 00:08:29.280 --> 00:08:32.959 This is a fundamental change in the meaning of a replacement part. 00:08:33.199 --> 00:08:37.600 Mechanically installing the correct component may no longer finish the repair. 00:08:37.759 --> 00:08:46.879 And that component may need to be coded, paired, initialized, calibrated, or authorized before the vehicle accepts it or is able to talk to it. 00:08:47.119 --> 00:08:50.239 So think about that, what that does to a workflow. 00:08:50.399 --> 00:08:55.919 The shop identifies the failure, looks up the vehicle, sources the part, and installs it. 00:08:56.079 --> 00:09:06.879 Then a software process fails because a server is unavailable, an interface behaves differently than expected, or maybe a subscription doesn't include the required function. 00:09:07.279 --> 00:09:16.559 The vehicle is occupying a bay, the technician's time is tied up, and the customer hears that a seemingly straightforward repair might take longer. 00:09:16.719 --> 00:09:31.359 So for consumers, the problem appears as time and costs, but for a repair facility, it appears as a non-billable diagnostic effort, tool duplication, interrupted workflow, and sometimes a referral to a different facility. 00:09:31.599 --> 00:09:39.839 For the industry, it is evidence that control of software functions can shape competition just as powerfully as control of physical parts. 00:09:40.000 --> 00:09:43.919 This is where the operational story reconnects with the right to repair, right? 00:09:44.000 --> 00:09:45.679 I know what you were thinking. 00:09:46.000 --> 00:09:54.399 Vehicle data access is not an abstract policy debate when a paid-for component cannot be activated without permission from the outside shop. 00:09:54.559 --> 00:10:02.719 The winners in this environment are going to be the ones that combine technical training, reliable repair information, and current tools and disciplined workflow. 00:10:02.879 --> 00:10:06.639 We see a lot of shops in the supply chain doing exactly this. 00:10:06.879 --> 00:10:14.639 But fair competition still requires that qualified independent businesses have a workable path to the necessary functions. 00:10:15.679 --> 00:10:22.879 Our fifth news story is that technician availability may be becoming a capacity ceiling. 00:10:23.359 --> 00:10:29.519 The technician workforce, this subject is often described as a recruiting shortage. 00:10:29.679 --> 00:10:33.199 And I wonder if that framing might be too narrow. 00:10:33.439 --> 00:10:43.279 There was a survey of nearly 700 repair professionals, and it found that 59% said that the technician shortage had a high or moderate impact on their business. 00:10:43.439 --> 00:10:44.399 No surprise. 00:10:44.639 --> 00:10:52.159 Respondents identified low compensation and a negative perception of the industry as the leading contributing factors. 00:10:52.479 --> 00:10:55.919 That should influence the conversation, right? 00:10:56.159 --> 00:11:04.479 If compensation and perception are causes, the solution cannot be limited to just telling more people that automotive careers exist. 00:11:04.719 --> 00:11:21.279 We have to show as an industry that our careers offer modern facilities, cutting-edge training, professional management, continuing education, really amazing working conditions, and good tools and a visible path to higher responsibility and pay. 00:11:21.519 --> 00:11:25.199 So this technician shortage obviously has an immediate business effect. 00:11:25.439 --> 00:11:32.319 A shop may have vehicles waiting, parts available, and customers approving the work, yet lack enough skilled hours to complete it. 00:11:32.479 --> 00:11:38.559 Or they're looking to put a succession plan in place and there's no one to hire to bring into that shop. 00:11:38.799 --> 00:11:48.959 At that point, labor is not just an HR issue, it's a ceiling on revenue, customer satisfaction, and the mobility kind of of these communities that they serve. 00:11:49.119 --> 00:11:58.559 So there are encouraging developments, such as the workforce Pell Grants, which can expand financial assistance for approved short-term technical programs. 00:11:58.799 --> 00:12:07.279 AutoCare has also launched the tools for tomorrow's technicians grant program to help high school automotive programs address outdated or limited equipment. 00:12:07.359 --> 00:12:10.000 And that's offered by our tool and equipment community. 00:12:10.239 --> 00:12:17.119 The pipeline matters, but filling the pipeline without improving retention is like adding coolant to a system that still leaks. 00:12:17.359 --> 00:12:24.799 Speaking from experience, shops in the wider industry have to develop people, equip them, and give them reasons to stay. 00:12:25.039 --> 00:12:41.679 And some of the happiest and most engaged shops that I've had the pleasure of meeting and seeing with on the shop floor are all really giving praise to those programs that are giving them all the training that they need to stay up to date and to service all the vehicles that are coming into their vase. 00:12:42.639 --> 00:12:57.039 Our final story on this episode of traction control is the compliance story hiding in plain sight because it's less visible to the average driver, but it may become increasingly important to manufacturers, importers, and distributors. 00:12:57.199 --> 00:13:00.879 And that is extended producer responsibility or EPR. 00:13:01.119 --> 00:13:02.959 You've heard us talk about it here before. 00:13:03.199 --> 00:13:11.039 EPR policies shift more responsibility for a product's full life cycle onto the businesses

that place it into the market. 00:13:11.279 --> 00:13:20.719 Depending on the jurisdiction and product category, that can involve collection, recycling, reporting fees, or safe disposal of those materials. 00:13:21.039 --> 00:13:23.199 And the concept is straightforward, right? 00:13:23.439 --> 00:13:27.199 The responsibility for a product should not end at the point of sale. 00:13:27.439 --> 00:13:30.559 The implementation is where it becomes complicated. 00:13:30.719 --> 00:13:45.199 So the aftermarket includes batteries, tires, lubricants, fluids, filters, electronics, packaging, and thousands of other products with very different recovery systems and environmental profiles. 00:13:45.439 --> 00:13:50.959 And a rule designed for one product product category may not translate cleanly to another. 00:13:51.119 --> 00:13:59.839 And a growing state-by-state patchwork can force businesses to track different definitions, deadlines, and reporting requirements across multiple markets. 00:14:00.000 --> 00:14:02.159 It is becoming very confusing. 00:14:02.319 --> 00:14:10.879 So in response, Autocare expanded its EPR Resource Center this year to help businesses understand and prepare for these emerging requirements. 00:14:11.119 --> 00:14:12.639 And it's an important signal. 00:14:12.879 --> 00:14:18.719 EPR is moving from a sustainability discussion into an operational compliance issue. 00:14:18.799 --> 00:14:26.399 So you're going to hear a lot from us on this this year and in the future as we continue to help our members navigate this. 00:14:26.639 --> 00:14:35.439 The policy opportunity here is to strengthen responsible collection and recycling while recognizing systems that already work. 00:14:35.839 --> 00:14:49.279 The policy risk is creating duplicative fees, conflictive requirements that are creating all of these administrative burdens that fall disproportionately on smaller businesses and really all businesses across the autocare ecosystem. 00:14:50.319 --> 00:15:00.319 So if you made it to the end, step back from these six stories that have been happening this summer and look at the common theme that appears, which I think is access. 00:15:00.559 --> 00:15:15.759 Access to repair data and software functions, access to predictable parts supply, access to affordable repair choices, and access to trained people, and access to compliance systems that businesses can realistically navigate. 00:15:15.919 --> 00:15:24.079 The aftermarket's projected growth is real and the opportunity is substantial, but growth alone does not guarantee competition. 00:15:24.319 --> 00:15:35.679 Our industry's future will depend on whether independent businesses can obtain the tools, the information, the products, and the talent required to serve the next generation of vehicles. 00:15:36.000 --> 00:15:37.839 That is why this moment matters. 00:15:38.079 --> 00:15:52.159 Decisions being made now in Congress, federal agencies, trade negotiations, classrooms, and shop management meetings, these will all determine who can repair a vehicle, how much that repair costs, and how many choices the owner retains. 00:15:52.319 --> 00:15:54.639 So here's the question I'm gonna leave you with. 00:15:54.879 --> 00:16:02.319 The aftermarket is growing, but are we building the conditions that allow the entire independent industry to grow with it? 00:16:02.639 --> 00:16:06.159 Thanks for tuning in to another episode of Auto Care on Air. 00:16:06.399 --> 00:16:09.759 Make sure to subscribe to our podcast so that you never miss an episode. 00:16:09.919 --> 00:16:14.239 And don't forget to leave us a rating and review that helps others discover our content. 00:16:14.479 --> 00:16:22.319 Auto Care on Air is a production of the Auto Care Association, dedicated to advancing the autocare industry and supporting professionals like you. 00:16:22.559 --> 00:16:27.439 To learn more about the association and its initiatives, visit autocare.org.