Полная расшифровка выпуска Ep 80 | Perth Property Has Changed. Are You Still Playing by the Old Rules?

so within Australia, within Perth, property is always on the tip of everyone's tongue. 00:04:01.120 --> 00:04:07.919 And it seems like more so um now than ever because of how strong the market's been, some of the announcements from the federal budget. 00:04:08.000 --> 00:04:20.000 So we wanted to take a little bit of time today to go through what you're actually seeing on the ground, Rowan, and also what people need to be thinking about because it seems like it's a conversation every barbecue, every event you go to. 00:04:20.319 --> 00:04:20.879 It's an obsession. 00:04:21.120 --> 00:04:21.199 Yeah. 00:04:21.600 --> 00:04:24.000 You're telling me, imagine been working it for the last 10 years. 00:04:24.560 --> 00:04:25.680 So tell us what you actually do. 00:04:26.079 --> 00:04:32.079 So obviously being a buyer's agent and the director of it, it's it's essentially working on the buyer's side of the transaction. 00:04:32.240 --> 00:04:35.759 So that's for first home buyers all the way through to the prestige market. 00:04:35.920 --> 00:04:48.079 Um just giving the confidence and comfort for a lot of buyers to obviously making one of the biggest financial decisions of your life, especially when you're buying homes, just to give you the experience and knowledge firsthand. 00:04:48.319 --> 00:04:54.639 So obviously that's a part of like finding appropriate properties, obviously doing the appropriate due diligence depending on the price range. 00:04:54.800 --> 00:05:00.160 And the biggest one's probably understanding value and and what makes up a quality home in particular. 00:05:00.399 --> 00:05:05.199 And then just the other part where we spend a lot of time negotiating on the behalf of clients. 00:05:05.360 --> 00:05:10.160 Not how many people are comfortable with that to and fro, dealing with sales agents, so there is a lot of that. 00:05:10.319 --> 00:05:12.480 And obviously the the contractual sides. 00:05:12.639 --> 00:05:15.519 So it's a start to finish advisory. 00:05:15.920 --> 00:05:16.000 Yeah. 00:05:16.240 --> 00:05:31.600 I was saying to Aidan before, you know, when we were looking at downsizing, um there was just nothing that met our Because as you get older, and particularly for downsizers, you got quite tight criteria and we didn't want to move out of suburbs. 00:05:32.319 --> 00:05:39.600 And so we just got to the point where we said the only option we've got is to buy something, land value, and build. 00:05:40.319 --> 00:05:50.560 Because it's just so you would come into your own there, I imagine, where people have got very specific criteria that they're looking for, and you're able to really just narrow down the options. 00:05:50.639 --> 00:05:57.600 Aaron Powell Even further than that, so it's we do area specialization, so we have a buyer's agent for each, like it normally makes up like six to eight suburbs. 00:05:57.839 --> 00:05:58.160 Yeah, right. 00:05:58.399 --> 00:06:05.439 So I I specialise in the Western suburbs, so if there's something that is to come up and it is a little bit unique, you need to be all across it depending on price point. 00:06:05.600 --> 00:06:08.319 Obviously, the higher you go, the less properties there are. 00:06:08.399 --> 00:06:31.839 So it's all about that relationship and uncovering things that probably people aren't aware of, but also just providing relevant information that you're not across as well, which makes it easier to understand where value is within the market, as which I'll probably touch on in regards to the number of stock and little things like that where it has been so tightly held and it continued to be so that you need that little bit of advantage over the next buyer. 00:06:32.160 --> 00:06:36.000 So if we sort of give our listeners a bit of context, I've I've done a little bit of homework. 00:06:36.160 --> 00:06:41.759 So median house price in Perth, so just houses in 2021 was about 840,000. 00:06:42.000 --> 00:06:45.600 Fast forward to the middle of this year, and it's about 1.35 million. 00:06:45.759 --> 00:06:49.120 So what's like what have you seen over that journey? 00:06:49.199 --> 00:06:53.519 Because I imagine it's been a pretty steep curve the last couple of years where everyone's clawing to find it. 00:06:53.600 --> 00:06:54.319 What's it actually been like? 00:06:54.639 --> 00:07:11.680 On the ground, so obviously with my clients come to me, so probably you touched on 2021 to probably late last year, probably early start of this year, it was more about how quickly can I get in the market, just because there was there's so many, as you guys we've been across, so many headlines about how much the market's moving, how how things are going. 00:07:11.839 --> 00:07:21.680 And then the tail off of that, probably the last, I'd I'd only say last two, three months, it's probably been is this the best option that I can get instead of how quickly do I want to get in? 00:07:22.319 --> 00:07:23.439 It's going back to quality. 00:07:23.519 --> 00:07:32.240 So probably if you were markets of the 2018, 2020, probably just that prior to COVID, being like, well, do I think there's much room left in the market? 00:07:32.399 --> 00:07:34.399 Is this the best quality home I'm going to buy? 00:07:34.480 --> 00:07:38.639 And that's only come under from scrutiny of like uncertainty, to be honest. 00:07:38.800 --> 00:07:41.759 And obviously we've we've got more stock on the market. 00:07:41.920 --> 00:07:48.800 We've got 6,100, whereas in 2021, and I remember it, we had like under we hit under 3,000, which is a 3,500 or something. 00:07:48.959 --> 00:07:50.000 Which is a record or something. 00:07:53.360 --> 00:07:57.120 Um you go back historically to then and everyone was like, I just got to find something. 00:07:57.279 --> 00:07:58.800 If something does come up, I'm buying it. 00:07:59.040 --> 00:08:01.199 Whereas that mindset just completely shifted. 00:08:01.680 --> 00:08:01.839 Trevor Burrus, Jr. 00:08:02.000 --> 00:08:04.160

But something there's something that hasn't changed. 00:08:04.879 --> 00:08:09.199 And and the natural population replacement rate is about 1 percent. 00:08:09.519 --> 00:08:09.839 All right. 00:08:10.000 --> 00:08:16.800 So we're always going to need 1 percent more houses, more dwellings each year. 00:08:17.680 --> 00:08:23.439 But the current population growth rate for Perth is 2.85. 00:08:24.560 --> 00:08:26.399 So there's just a there's still a shortage. 00:08:26.720 --> 00:08:35.759 So to your question that you posed sort of rhetorically was a client thinking, oh, you one of your clients thinking, oh gee, has the property got much further to go? 00:08:36.240 --> 00:08:42.720 If our population growth rate stays at 2.85 percent, then the answer's got to be yes. 00:08:42.799 --> 00:08:44.159 Trevor Burrus, Jr.: It still goes back to it. 00:08:44.240 --> 00:08:45.440 And I 100% agree. 00:08:45.679 --> 00:08:53.919 And it it just goes it I actually think it's a little bit of a good thing there is a little bit of uncertainty because a lot of buyers are gravitating back to what is a quality home. 00:08:54.159 --> 00:08:55.039 Yeah, just pause, take a breath. 00:08:55.360 --> 00:08:56.399 Just pause, take a breath. 00:08:56.559 --> 00:09:06.240 Whereas like things were selling like seven to eight, seven to eight days on on market, whereas now it's like I wouldn't say blown out because it's 14 days of positive thing. 00:09:06.399 --> 00:09:15.679 But yeah, you have a bit of time to sit and think, and I've even seen that across the market where it's not you go through something on Saturday and then it sells Sunday morning or Saturday night. 00:09:15.759 --> 00:09:25.840 It's like, okay, we're we've got to the 20th of July, you've got 13 days, 15 days, you've got time to do due diligence, you have time to think in it, sit in it, okay, is this the right thing for me? 00:09:26.159 --> 00:09:37.200 And that's only a positive thing for buyers, I find, in this market is because obviously it a good quality home, no matter what the market's doing, is always going to sell and always going to be advantageous. 00:09:37.519 --> 00:10:00.720 It's just the fact I feel like a lot of buyers got caught up in the noise for a lot of the time that the market was moving, and it is, and it is continuing to do so, but they're buying inferior properties where the market was kind of covering up the quality of it because it's like, yeah, everyone's making equity, everyone's got growth in this asset, where you're like, well, I remember when that property was in 2016 and it was on the market for 210 days, and that was a softer market. 00:10:00.879 --> 00:10:05.279 If you were to pick that a home and sell it later in time, are you going to have the same consequences? 00:10:05.519 --> 00:10:06.080 I believe so. 00:10:06.320 --> 00:10:17.200 And you go back to like functionality, location, school zones, all the investment stuff that you've you've you've spoken about, but everyone just kind of brushed aside because it was so hot and and so quick to move. 00:10:17.360 --> 00:10:17.919 That's the difference. 00:10:18.480 --> 00:10:28.879 It's good that some of the heat is coming out of it, I think, Rowan, because recently it's probably felt a little bit like 2006, 7, 8. 00:10:29.919 --> 00:10:36.720 And that was very much the last probably mining construction boom in Perth. 00:10:36.879 --> 00:10:40.320 And Perth's always had that reputation of being a bit boom bust, right? 00:10:40.879 --> 00:11:00.080 But then when the GFC hit and all of and it just coincided with all of those construct big construction projects like Wheatstone and Barrow Island and that sort of thing finishing, lots of tradespeople migrated further east, population growth rate went down, and we had that lost decade. 00:11:00.480 --> 00:11:07.600 So 2010 through 2019, property prices fell quite sharply and then did nothing. 00:11:08.240 --> 00:11:22.080 So I think it's we talk about hard landing, soft landing in in financial markets, but in property markets it's probably really good that the heat is starting to come out of it to give people a bit more breathing space to make smart decisions. 00:11:22.639 --> 00:11:26.639 Yeah, and and that's what we've just been lacking is just people making smart decisions, to be honest. 00:11:27.279 --> 00:11:30.960 And that's that's right across the board, doesn't matter what price range you are. 00:11:31.039 --> 00:11:31.200 Trevor Burrus, Jr. 00:11:31.279 --> 00:11:37.840 Well I heard a story one of my sons said the property across the road from him in Palmara, really nicely renovated place. 00:11:38.000 --> 00:11:39.759 They had 20 offers. 00:11:40.639 --> 00:11:42.559 20 offers, like written offers. 00:11:43.840 --> 00:11:44.720 That's amazing. 00:11:45.200 --> 00:11:48.960 And you're starting to say that and so they're so you would have like your blue chip areas, for example. 00:11:49.120 --> 00:11:52.960 So Palmary, obviously, on the border of East Fairmount, all Big Ten through there. 00:11:53.200 --> 00:12:08.879 What's happening is you kind of call them the bridesmaid suburbs because there's no stock in that original suburb, people are pushed out, and therefore they've got the good budget, they have the income, so then they're pushing that house price or that median price in that suburb up because they can't get what they're trying to achieve, and they still go to quality. 00:12:09.120 --> 00:12:13.519 I think I know that Palmaron is a nicely renovated character home, which is unique for the area. 00:12:14.000 --> 00:12:21.679 So then you're getting people from outside of areas because there's such low stock push to that one, and then it causes a cascade effect in the outer fringes. 00:12:22.080 --> 00:12:29.679 Trevor Burrus, Jr.: So then people who can't no can no longer afford to who aspire people who might have been aspiring to North Perth can't get North Perth. 00:12:29.759 --> 00:12:31.120 So they say,

okay, better look south. 00:12:31.200 --> 00:12:32.159 Let's look at Palmyra. 00:12:32.320 --> 00:12:32.960 That works for me. 00:12:33.360 --> 00:12:40.960 The people who aspire to Palmyra are now saying, okay, well, geez, I'd better start looking in Hilton or Hamilton Hill or Which are all great suburbs. 00:12:41.039 --> 00:12:44.399 They're really gentrifying and that's what's happening across the board. 00:12:44.559 --> 00:12:45.600 You're starting to see that. 00:12:45.759 --> 00:12:50.960 And unfortunate thing is because when that Palmar one I would have said was probably start of the year as well. 00:12:51.120 --> 00:12:51.360 That's right. 00:12:51.600 --> 00:13:01.440 So what what happens is the the the mindset of the buyer was okay, there's 20 offers, if something else comes in in Palmara, I've got to be more aggressive than those next 19. 00:13:01.600 --> 00:13:05.919 But then two weeks ago, for example, I've um a property in Claremont. 00:13:06.159 --> 00:13:11.360 If you picked it up and put it at the start of the year, I think it would have been probably a high four and a slightly compromised. 00:13:11.519 --> 00:13:14.879 And so I when I say slightly compromised, it was across the road from a school. 00:13:14.960 --> 00:13:15.120 Yeah. 00:13:15.440 --> 00:13:16.960 They were chasing mid to high fours. 00:13:17.519 --> 00:13:21.360 A buyer who'd been missing out for 12 to 24 months just lobbed in at 4.95. 00:13:21.679 --> 00:13:22.159 Next offer. 00:13:22.480 --> 00:13:22.799 Get out. 00:13:22.960 --> 00:13:24.080 Next offer was 4.4. 00:13:24.639 --> 00:13:25.279 Get out. 00:13:25.519 --> 00:13:33.600 So you're starting to see the difference and shift between a new buyer who is just starting to enter and going, you know what, I'm having a good think about this. 00:13:33.679 --> 00:13:41.200 They're probably upgrading from a Mosman Park to get into Claremont where their they've got their house is two to two point five, they've got a bit of equity, they probably bought it for one. 00:13:41.600 --> 00:13:45.519 So then the loan amount's not as high, they can get to that four and a half range. 00:13:45.679 --> 00:13:50.080 Whereas this person that's consistently missed out, they missed down one before it sold. 00:13:50.240 --> 00:13:57.600 No, I think it was this is obviously we'll we'll touch on it just before everything in the world went skew in the policy in Trump. 00:13:57.759 --> 00:14:03.200 There was a house that sold in Claremont as well, they're chasing high falls, sold for 5.3, and they were the underbidder. 00:14:03.279 --> 00:14:06.639 And there was, as you mentioned, there wasn't 20, but it's still seven. 00:14:06.799 --> 00:14:07.840 And that's a good price point. 00:14:08.159 --> 00:14:08.639 At that price point. 00:14:08.879 --> 00:14:09.279 At that price point. 00:14:10.480 --> 00:14:20.559 So then you start to go, okay, and that person's picked that up and gone, I need to get in for whatever reason, and then they've gone to go buy that, and the next offer, well, the the buyer pool is around the mid-fours. 00:14:21.200 --> 00:14:27.279 So that just shows you how that's probably a good indication of what the market is doing and and where people are seeing. 00:14:27.360 --> 00:14:28.480 And I see it across the board. 00:14:28.720 --> 00:14:37.759 You're seeing people that have probably been in the market for too long and have been burnt by the 20 offers in Palmara that they will missed out and they're like, I could have gone higher, I should have gone higher. 00:14:38.000 --> 00:14:39.039 Sometimes you don't need to. 00:14:39.279 --> 00:14:43.600 Obviously, if you're buying a home for 10, 20, 30 years within reason, it makes sense. 00:14:43.759 --> 00:14:45.600 But to the extent of if it's slightly. 00:14:54.000 --> 00:15:11.039 So if you talk about what the market's been doing and you go through those numbers and the stock on market as well, like obviously, like I said, you've got six thousand one hundred, but if you go to the top six suburbs, one of them's South Perth, where it's all apartments, because that that's the weakest asset class to get going. 00:15:11.279 --> 00:15:21.440 Baldivers, house and land packages, Alkamos, it's all the outer fringes where land there's a lot of open land and you talk about population growth and builds and stuff like that. 00:15:21.519 --> 00:15:22.799 It's nowhere people want to live. 00:15:22.879 --> 00:15:33.440 Aaron Powell We've talked a bit on the podcast about what I think is a fundamental shift in biopsychology in Perth. 00:15:34.240 --> 00:15:51.600 Where um up until really quite recently, buying not what you and I would consider apartments, like new builds, like but they're the 1950s, 1960s, walk-up, sort of two-level, three-level, what we used to-I grew up calling flats. 00:15:52.159 --> 00:16:06.879 I actually like them because when you go into them, they're some of them are really roomy and they've got nine-foot ceilings and but they're sort of looked down upon because they tend to be clustered around Stirling Highway or Canning Highway or whatever. 00:16:07.360 --> 00:16:16.559 But we're seeing a shift with our clients' kids where they're now saying, well, if I want location, I have to trade something out. 00:16:16.799 --> 00:16:30.720 So I either have to trade out location and move further away to get the house that I want, or I've got to trade out the house that I want for an apartment, an older style apartment, in a location that's really desirable. 00:16:31.120 --> 00:16:32.879 We've sort of seen that anecdotally. 00:16:33.120 --> 00:16:35.360 Are you is that working for you? 00:16:35.679 --> 00:16:35.919 100%. 00:16:36.240 --> 00:16:47.759 And it it's it is that the old like Renvestor mentality where people are like, oh, I might buy something in the outer fringes, but then you you're cross-referencing that with what you're buying in the western suburbs and you are changing asset class. 00:16:47.919 -->

00:16:50.960 So depending on where they're coming from, exactly the same. 00:16:51.279 --> 00:16:58.000 And uh it's not the fact that the apartments per se are new ones because they're they're more that's a different kind of buyer pool. 00:16:58.080 --> 00:17:01.440 It's the older, probably a little bit more derelict type where you can add value. 00:17:01.600 --> 00:17:01.840 Yep. 00:17:02.000 --> 00:17:02.960 They're they're the ones. 00:17:03.200 --> 00:17:05.920 But yeah, 100% that that's what we're seeing across the board. 00:17:06.000 --> 00:17:11.359 Like that, probably they're that sub 700k apartments, that's probably where it is. 00:17:11.440 --> 00:17:14.000 And then from there, people are going, well, what can I get for that money? 00:17:14.160 --> 00:17:16.559 Is it buying a home and a little bit further out? 00:17:16.720 --> 00:17:18.640 But then these are the conversations they're having to have. 00:17:18.720 --> 00:17:23.759 It's like am I going to be 25, 30 minutes commute, or am I going to be a five to ten closer to family? 00:17:23.839 --> 00:17:24.000 Trevor Burrus, Jr. 00:17:24.160 --> 00:17:29.519 But if that psychology is shifted, it's going to take something really big in the market for that to reverse. 00:17:30.319 --> 00:17:38.880 Because kids have been buying one-bedroom apartments in Sydney in good locations for twenty-five years. 00:17:39.440 --> 00:17:48.000 So I suspect that's probably a real shift for us from a social and demographic point of view, that people are now saying, okay, that's my way in. 00:17:48.319 --> 00:17:54.000 Renovate, move, renovate, move, and you know, you just don't get to buy your dream home up front. 00:17:54.079 --> 00:18:04.160 Trevor Burrus, Jr.: If you look through the buyers that are buying at the moment that are using the equity, like they are coming from like your villas and Chewett Hill, Villas and YoCon, and then buying the family home, it is a stepping stone. 00:18:04.319 --> 00:18:04.400 Yeah. 00:18:04.640 --> 00:18:13.119 Where a lot of I think the the the conversations was around trying to like you you're seeing first-time buyers with spending two million or two and a half to get that first thing. 00:18:13.279 --> 00:18:19.920 Whereas I I think the the appropriate strategy is starting to see is they're building that up over time, getting in the good area, b basing that. 00:18:20.079 --> 00:18:25.119 And it's a set and forget mindset a lot of the time of what I'm seeing across the board. 00:18:25.279 --> 00:18:26.880 And because it location beats all. 00:18:49.200 --> 00:18:52.000 Is there always gonna be a buyer for that type of property when you had to sell it? 00:18:52.240 --> 00:18:52.799 Yeah, absolutely. 00:18:53.119 --> 00:18:55.039 But Rowan, something seems to have shifted. 00:18:55.680 --> 00:19:16.799 Like second Tuesday in May, federal budget night, um Treasurer Chalmers makes a range of announcements in the budget papers that had been well signalled, and then a number

of budget changes that had not been so well signalled. 00:19:16.960 --> 00:19:21.039 And he's been variously referred to as a liar and you know, all the rest of it. 00:19:21.119 --> 00:19:23.920 There's been quite a lot of vitriol towards the federal government. 00:19:24.480 --> 00:19:29.759 What are you seeing since the the the the last budget? 00:19:30.559 --> 00:19:32.799 Oh a lot, to be honest. 00:19:33.039 --> 00:19:40.720 Um probably pre-budget uh majority of the buyer pool was like 50% owner-occupier, 50% probably investor. 00:19:41.039 --> 00:19:55.680 They were buying those apartments, um, the the entry-level villas and on those types of properties because obviously you had even on my books, you'd probably I would still have 50-50 in some regard that are trying to buy aspirational as well. 00:19:55.759 --> 00:19:59.440 Like get the best location, figure out a build, buy in that that pocket. 00:19:59.839 --> 00:20:07.359 So they're trying to buy the land value with as little value attributed to the house as they possibly can because it's their next move. 00:20:07.680 --> 00:20:07.759 Yeah. 00:20:08.160 --> 00:20:10.640 So they're trying to go that location-based strategy. 00:20:10.799 --> 00:20:17.519 And then you had like still over-reached type of buyers trying to get in, make it obviously the yields were still pretty good. 00:20:17.839 --> 00:20:22.880 And then post-budget, I would probably say it's like 75% owner-occupiers and climbing to 25%. 00:20:23.359 --> 00:20:27.200 And the only investors that I see at the moment on the ground are developers. 00:20:29.119 --> 00:20:40.079 You're saying then, and I know this is anecdotal, this is just what you're observing, but you're saying that that prior to the budget it was 50% investors, 50% owner occupiers, and now it's 75%, 25%. 00:20:40.400 --> 00:20:49.519 So you can infer from that that 25% of all bidders for homes established at dwellings have essentially left the market. 00:20:50.160 --> 00:20:50.799 Yeah, 100%. 00:20:51.759 --> 00:20:55.519 Just for taxation purposes or their strategies have had to change significantly. 00:20:56.079 --> 00:21:09.920 So we're hearing we don't do auctions so much in Perth, but we're hearing um, you know, New South Wales and Victorian um auction clearance rates are at you know, uh really low levels. 00:21:10.640 --> 00:21:12.559 Um I imagine that's that impact. 00:21:12.880 --> 00:21:24.319 Whereas the the investors have just left completely and um you know the rest have got a bit of time to as you were mentioning before, to to just hold back and wait and see. 00:21:24.720 --> 00:21:27.680 Yeah, and and and it's gonna be depending on where that investors come from. 00:21:27.920 --> 00:21:34.799 So if they're eastern states and they're doing the other strategy where they're like, okay, I've made some money in Western Australia, I've made it in Perth. 00:21:34.880 --> 00:21:48.640 Now they're maybe if housing prices are starting to come off in Melbourne

and Sydney, they own they might be doing the same philosophy as what people are trying to do here and then upgrade because maybe it's a little bit easier to distinguish maybe I can get into a better area. 00:21:48.880 --> 00:21:51.519 And that's so I'm starting to see that as well. 00:21:52.000 --> 00:21:56.160 But to your comments, yeah, like the even auctions, yeah. 00:21:56.319 --> 00:22:01.440 So like I could have there's a couple of auctions that happened in Perth, a couple Weeks post the budget. 00:22:01.680 --> 00:22:07.519 There was one in Wembley that bought it for 1925 in 2024, couldn't get a bit over 1.8 two weeks post. 00:22:08.240 --> 00:22:15.279 So that probably gives you an indication of the uncertainty in the market, because that would have been a land value asset and they would have bought that to build. 00:22:15.519 --> 00:22:22.880 And personally as well, I've had clients that have had to stop looking because they can't do that strategy, or that was a part of it. 00:22:23.039 --> 00:22:35.200 That the whole proposition was to go, we are upgrading from maybe a woodlands to a city beach to get into a better area, but I can't hold both with obviously with one that beans such a significant cash burn as well. 00:22:35.359 --> 00:22:35.519 Trevor Burrus, Jr. 00:22:35.759 --> 00:22:42.079 That's that's so interesting because if I just take that thread a little bit further. 00:22:42.720 --> 00:22:45.839 People who established homes who are saying, look, what's our next opportunity? 00:22:46.000 --> 00:22:52.480 We're going to buy that old clunker of a house down the road on a really good block. 00:22:52.559 --> 00:23:03.920 So we're going to pay a lot of money for the block and then we'll negative gear it for two years while we go through the process of designing our new home, finding a builder, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. 00:23:04.240 --> 00:23:07.680 And the tenant will move out hopefully the day before we start demolition. 00:23:09.440 --> 00:23:22.799 What this policy does, I suspect, without uh unintended consequence is significantly increase the cost of building a new home. 00:23:24.720 --> 00:23:26.160 Uh extraordinary. 00:23:26.480 --> 00:23:31.519 It's it's there's a huge cost um replacement cost in Perth is an absolute premium right now. 00:23:31.759 --> 00:23:32.000 Wow. 00:23:32.240 --> 00:23:36.960 So a lot of my buyers um that I'm getting are upgrading. 00:23:37.279 --> 00:23:38.880 They have a renovation project. 00:23:38.960 --> 00:23:41.440 So I just transacted a mine in Cottisloy. 00:23:41.680 --> 00:23:44.559 It's a 20, 2018 architecturally designed home. 00:23:45.440 --> 00:23:52.960 That was around eight mil, but they were coming from a renovation project in Peppermint Grove for 7.8, which was going to cost them six mil. 00:23:53.279 --> 00:24:01.440 And they said, you know what, I think it's better if I trade sideways because, first of all, if I am to buy a land value, yes, it's a lot of cash burn. 00:24:01.599 --> 00:24:10.319 There's also if I am to sell my home to make this work, I know there's rent involved for you moving out, and then we'll probably touch on it as well, the vacancy rates, it's hard to get a rental. 00:24:10.480 --> 00:24:17.359 So all these fundamentals don't quite add up, whereas people are going, you know what, I'll willingly wait for that finished product. 00:24:17.519 --> 00:24:22.480 And I'll I'll if I have to pay for it, I will pay for it because I know that sometimes the timing makes sense. 00:24:22.640 --> 00:24:30.960 Or if it's location and something that needs a slight bit of renovations, it has the potential, they prefer that strategy than starting over and building again. 00:24:31.359 --> 00:24:31.920 That's what I'm saying. 00:24:32.000 --> 00:24:44.960 Trevor Burrus, Jr.: So our listeners will know from our budget episode that I was banging on about this the last budget being so anti-aspirational for younger people. 00:24:45.119 --> 00:24:45.279 Trevor Burrus, Jr. 00:24:45.519 --> 00:25:00.480 But it's actually hitting it's hitting the not just your generation and below, but the generation up as well, because it's actually going to be just so much more expensive to build that dream home that you had hoped to build. 00:25:00.559 --> 00:25:02.559 Trevor Burrus, Jr.: Well, it's even going to be the downsizes. 00:25:02.880 --> 00:25:15.359 Because they might have an older home who are asset-rich, cash poor, and then they're having to sell their home into a newer build, which then you're doing the cross-reference and you might have a really good land holding, and you're going into something that's a core of the size and you're paying the same price. 00:25:15.519 --> 00:25:18.319 Trevor Burrus, Jr.: Oh, look, our time. 00:25:18.720 --> 00:25:28.240 Our anecdotal experience is that and and this feeds into our advice is be very, very careful if you're downsizing to expect to change. 00:25:29.200 --> 00:25:39.039 Like the likelihood of you downsizing and buying the house you really want and getting change out of your initial sort of family home. 00:25:39.440 --> 00:25:40.400 We just don't see it, do we? 00:25:40.480 --> 00:25:40.799 I don't know. 00:25:40.880 --> 00:25:40.960 No. 00:25:41.680 --> 00:25:42.400 It's rare. 00:25:42.880 --> 00:25:43.039 Trevor Burrus, Jr. 00:25:43.279 --> 00:25:59.599 Which just references the premium for replacement cost, because you're you're paying for a build on a small lot of land versus and this is where like you go back to the buying fundamentals, like obviously doing finance economics and we've got value valuers in our team and stuff like that. 00:25:59.839 --> 00:26:03.839 You're always taught to buy the the worst house on the best street and the biggest lot of land. 00:26:04.079 --> 00:26:05.920 Whereas that's kind of it's an interesting metric. 00:26:11.359 --> 00:26:14.319 You're also at a stage of your life where you actually want what you want. 00:26:15.119 -->

00:26:18.720 Like you you're pretty sick of doing trade-offs all your life. 00:26:18.880 --> 00:26:22.000 So as you bring your kids up, you're making trade-offs every day. 00:26:22.480 --> 00:26:22.720 Right? 00:26:22.960 --> 00:26:24.720 You do we do this or do we do that? 00:26:24.880 --> 00:26:27.839 Do we upgrade the house or do we c take the kids on family holiday? 00:26:27.920 --> 00:26:33.519 So by the time you get to my age in your sixties and you're downsizing, you're gonna make sure you're getting what you really want. 00:26:33.839 --> 00:26:44.240 I think I wouldn't mind touching on so a lot of what we say to clients is one of our main roles is to help them make smart financial decisions and help them avoid costly mistakes, which in essence is what you're doing for buyers. 00:26:44.480 --> 00:26:54.799 So what are you seeing at the moment, or what are some of the I guess red flags for people to look out for where they can avoid making mistakes when they're going to make this big decision about buying a home? 00:26:55.759 --> 00:26:59.440 There's it like there's the way they always look at it is like locations, number one. 00:26:59.599 --> 00:27:08.319 So obviously avoid main roads, little things like that, assess the noise element, especially if there are there is a lot of conversations about R codes changing. 00:27:08.400 --> 00:27:16.640 So you want to probably keep away from like thoroughfares or anything that's probably close proximity to already higher density zone that probably could even be expanded further. 00:27:16.720 --> 00:27:18.960 That's my first and foremost that I look at. 00:27:19.359 --> 00:27:21.920 The other things is just like floor plan functionality. 00:27:22.079 --> 00:27:27.200 Is it worth even doing an extension and a renovation because it's so the cost of to do so? 00:27:27.440 --> 00:27:29.680 And understanding like the ceiling of that suburb. 00:27:29.839 --> 00:27:37.039 So even if you are to buy that product and do a renovation on it, you might be overcapitalizing by the time you finish because replacement cost is so high. 00:27:37.279 --> 00:27:41.279 Orientation, like things that people buyers completely forgot about for a period of time. 00:27:41.359 --> 00:27:43.759 It's like, what do you like about living in your home? 00:27:43.839 --> 00:27:48.079 And everyone always says natural light, and I know it's a it's a weird thing to talk about in some respects. 00:27:48.400 --> 00:27:48.960 It's leaving. 00:27:49.200 --> 00:27:57.359 But is it but people for forego that just because they were like, okay, I want to get into this suburb and makes sense and I'll pay this premium because there's one property every three, six months. 00:27:57.519 --> 00:28:00.960 Whereas there's always more properties, you've just got to ask the right questions in some regard. 00:28:01.039 --> 00:28:13.279 But you don't oversay that because if you're spending 10, 20, 30 years, you you want to be somewhere you love and it it's it's a it's it's a thought where every time you're home, you're like, what is wrong with my home? 00:28:13.440 --> 00:28:15.279 What could what are the risks associated? 00:28:15.440 --> 00:28:16.400 What could go wrong? 00:28:16.559 --> 00:28:18.799 And that therefore you're not even going to enjoy where you are. 00:28:18.880 --> 00:28:30.559 And so if you go back to location, orientation, functionality, all the things that everyone was so good at in probably 2018, 2019, because they had more time, there was more stock, you're more selective, you can go through more properties. 00:28:30.799 --> 00:28:39.359 Whereas because you're going through one every six months, you can't create that feedback loop of like what do I like, what don't I like, why did that one sell, why is that one so much more than this one? 00:28:39.599 --> 00:28:39.759 Yeah. 00:28:40.000 --> 00:28:45.519 Because you you get caught up by not seeing anything, you you become that panicked buyer and you go, I've just got to get something. 00:28:46.400 --> 00:28:58.000 So if what you suggested earlier is true and there are 25% less bidders in market that the investors are not there, what's happening with prices, do you think? 00:28:58.160 --> 00:28:59.119 Is it too early to tell? 00:28:59.279 --> 00:29:03.440 Have they like you're saying there are there are fewer people turning up for home open. 00:29:03.759 --> 00:29:04.960 There's less competition. 00:29:05.519 --> 00:29:07.119 But are prices moving? 00:29:07.519 --> 00:29:09.279 Prices are still where they were. 00:29:09.359 --> 00:29:15.599 I there I would say there's less number of people through a home, but still the same amount of genuine interest. 00:29:15.839 --> 00:29:23.200 So you've you've kind of just created a more efficient it's become more efficient to identify the best buyer in the pool, I would say. 00:29:23.359 --> 00:29:25.839 You're still getting three or four offers on a property. 00:29:25.920 --> 00:29:30.640 You're not getting your 20, but you're getting three to four in a good price range as well. 00:29:30.799 --> 00:29:34.160 So it it prices are still relative. 00:29:34.319 --> 00:29:38.000 Um if it's a good quality home, there's still competition, it's still pushing it up. 00:29:38.160 --> 00:29:50.720 But things that are slightly compromised, I'm saying that it's probably probably the prices of the back end of last year or that mid-year, where it's kind of leveled out in some respect because buyers become a bit more astute and they have more time. 00:29:50.799 --> 00:29:56.240 They're like, well, I'm not making that sacrifice, it might need too much work, or long term, this isn't going to work for us. 00:29:56.559 --> 00:30:00.480 What about so you've got teams that work in different pockets of the market and specialists? 00:30:00.559 --> 00:30:06.160 So you're seeing different things in different areas, say the top end versus the entry points, what's like what's changed in that perspective? 00:30:06.640

--> 00:30:07.759 Complete like polar opposites. 00:30:08.000 --> 00:30:10.319 So I I do the prestige market, so the top end. 00:30:10.480 --> 00:30:14.640 I'm seeing more people upgrade their home and and just just get on with it. 00:30:14.720 --> 00:30:17.440 And then that's I don't know where that advice is probably coming from. 00:30:17.519 --> 00:30:24.559 It's more okay, if I've got good equity, I've got the foundations, if I might not have the best quality home, but I'm going to get the absolute premium I can. 00:30:24.799 --> 00:30:29.119 A couple of weekends ago, 45 mil of properties sold in cottysol in one weekend. 00:30:29.359 --> 00:30:32.160 And that was if you break it it's only about four houses. 00:30:32.559 --> 00:30:33.519 Well it was four houses. 00:30:33.599 --> 00:30:33.759 Yeah. 00:30:33.839 --> 00:30:38.400 And if you break it down, so like two of them were ocean views and two of them were large land holdings. 00:30:38.480 --> 00:30:38.720 Yeah. 00:30:38.880 --> 00:30:40.240 And with good homes. 00:30:40.480 --> 00:30:42.640 Whereas everything else through that market didn't sell. 00:30:42.799 --> 00:30:45.920 So like they're pinpointing, okay, what is quality, what's not. 00:30:46.319 --> 00:30:56.000 And then you go further, you go across the board and even like the three to four, a little bit slower because of like obviously income is that changed, it talks of interest rates. 00:30:56.160 --> 00:31:00.000 That one slowed a bit instead of having five offers, you probably got two to three good offers. 00:31:00.319 --> 00:31:01.680 Two to like that, two to three. 00:31:01.839 --> 00:31:08.640 Anything like 1.5 to 3, that's where the general buyer normally is, like that family upgrader. 00:31:09.359 --> 00:31:22.720 Depending on what suburb they're buying in, some of the suburbs have reached a ceiling where you're paying 1.8 for like a land value asset in Mount Hawthorne, and then they're like, well, the highest sale in Mount Hawthorne, yeah, it was like three and a half, but that was on a double block and architectural design. 00:31:23.119 --> 00:31:24.559 Doesn't leave me much runway. 00:31:24.799 --> 00:31:28.480 So that th that property is starting to stick, I find, in those pockets. 00:31:28.640 --> 00:31:37.119 And then the the like probably the sub 1 mil, you could probably even break it up into like sub one mil to 700k, and then sub-700k. 00:31:37.519 --> 00:31:43.279 The sub 700k is just so much uncertainty because the first home buyers, the 5% as you've touched on as well. 00:31:43.519 --> 00:31:47.440 As soon as there's they aren't they don't have experience to rely upon. 00:31:47.599 --> 00:31:50.720 So they are the first ones hit in some regard. 00:31:50.880 --> 00:31:56.960 And the pricing, that they're not as comfortable lobbying up a price in order to secure the property. 00:31:57.119 --> 00:32:01.920 And then the 700 to a mil, like you you're still seeing that same effect. 00:32:02.079 --> 00:32:04.400 There's just no confidence in their in their decision making. 00:32:04.480 --> 00:32:04.640 Trevor Burrus, Jr. 00:32:04.799 --> 00:32:12.319 With the 5% deposit scheme, so our listeners may not know, but I suspect it's been pretty well aired in the in the media. 00:32:12.880 --> 00:32:25.119 There's a scheme that enables you to buy a house for a 5% deposit, and then the government effectively guarantees the loan, which is a pretty significant distortion of the lending market. 00:32:25.759 --> 00:32:34.720 Um my guess would be that given what you've said throughout the podcast so far, that prices have been so strong. 00:32:35.039 --> 00:32:41.599 I imagine in that sort of 700 to a million mark, there would actually be people who are now in negative equity. 00:32:42.000 --> 00:32:49.839 Yeah, if they're in the outer fringes, I would imagine, in areas that are probably propped up by a lot by investor demand to because they were they had the strategy of being in and out. 00:32:50.000 --> 00:33:05.839 So they probably only held them for three, four years and they've propped up the suburb to look like it's more of a family-friendly, but then they're because they've all exited for whatever reasons to keep to get their cash out, in some respect some respect, it it's propped the suburb medium house price up. 00:33:05.920 --> 00:33:13.599 And then they've had to buy in at that, but then the demand's still not there anymore because it's a compromise location or it's not where people want to live. 00:33:13.759 --> 00:33:20.400 So therefore, you are you will start to see those those suburbs come off because the demand won't be there. 00:33:20.480 --> 00:33:20.640 Trevor Burrus, Jr. 00:33:20.799 --> 00:33:32.640 Other than perhaps for new brand new dwellings, so brand new apartments, brand new land subdivision, home house and home because they're still eligible for the negative gearing benefit. 00:33:33.279 --> 00:33:36.559 When we talk about aspiration, a lot of people see this as an opportunity. 00:33:36.799 --> 00:33:43.119 Buy your first home, build up your equity, use some of that equity as a deposit to buy a rental property, then buy another rental property. 00:33:43.440 --> 00:33:46.000 And that's not going to be possible anymore. 00:33:47.039 --> 00:33:50.640 So what do you think the strategy is going to be? 00:33:51.119 --> 00:33:57.039 Will people just say, okay, well, I'm just going to keep uh uh renovating and upgrading my primary residence? 00:33:57.279 --> 00:33:58.319 Because that's tax-free, right? 00:33:58.480 --> 00:34:05.039 You can you can sell a house for$25 million in Point Piper in Sydney and it's a tax-free capital gain. 00:34:05.599 --> 00:34:08.239 So, you know, what what what do you see happening there? 00:34:08.639 --> 00:34:14.480 I think that's I think it's gonna be everyone trying to upgrade or move and uh obviously their primary place a lot more. 00:34:14.559 --> 00:34:18.559 Um I think we'll probably start to see a little bit

probably not unique strategies. 00:34:18.639 --> 00:34:25.760 I think it's gonna be very simplistic, but I I think the people are gonna be more open to moving their their family home for whatever reason. 00:34:26.000 --> 00:34:35.679 Um and the only other people probably that will be the movers and shakers will be the developers that are doing that might buy these subdivisions to do the two new townhouses. 00:34:35.760 --> 00:34:40.719 So there is a little bit of CGT discount and you can appeal it, like apply it to other people. 00:34:41.360 --> 00:34:44.480 But a a lot of the home buyers aren't going to buy that product. 00:34:44.800 --> 00:34:48.239 So it it's going to be an interesting landscape to watch. 00:34:48.320 --> 00:34:57.280 I I I'm already seeing it, people upgrading or moving their home to get a better location if they think, oh, you know what, I think the market's maybe covered up. 00:34:57.360 --> 00:35:00.079 I might have made a mistake in 2020, 2021. 00:35:00.480 --> 00:35:01.599 It's time to let go. 00:35:01.760 --> 00:35:15.840 It's time to go somewhere better and not have that risk associated long term, even if I have to borrow an extra little bit, or if it's it makes sense for them because they've already seen that a good product, no matter what the market's doing, is a strong product. 00:35:16.159 --> 00:35:17.360 So that's what I'm starting to say. 00:35:17.920 --> 00:35:18.480 So interesting. 00:35:19.119 --> 00:35:29.519 We often chat about the fact that advising clients is actually far more psychology than it is finance. 00:35:29.760 --> 00:35:31.840 And I'm hearing exactly the same thing for you. 00:35:32.239 --> 00:35:32.639 Yeah, 100%. 00:35:36.800 --> 00:35:37.519 As it is ours. 00:35:37.840 --> 00:35:40.400 Yeah, and and you've got to understand like why they're doing this. 00:35:40.639 --> 00:35:45.599 So like as you guys do with your advice, it's like why do you want to undertake this decision? 00:35:45.840 --> 00:35:47.519 What what's what's the thought behind it? 00:35:47.599 --> 00:35:48.639 Is it changing schools? 00:35:48.800 --> 00:35:56.639 Is it and then you you're getting more more time equates to more questions as well and more decisions that they're trying to figure out. 00:35:56.800 --> 00:36:05.519 Um whereas I think before, when the market was so aggressive, they didn't even always have time to think about what are the replicates, like what are the consequences, what's the positives, what's the cons? 00:36:05.599 --> 00:36:07.599 They were just doing it because they're like, oh, I just have to get in. 00:36:07.760 --> 00:36:10.239 Whereas now time has come back in. 00:36:10.320 --> 00:36:18.079 And even with my clients, you start to hear like, oh, maybe the wife doesn't want to go to work anymore, or they're thinking about retirement earlier. 00:36:18.239 --> 00:36:22.400 The little things that are starting to change that they're like, okay, what's the best decision for us? 00:36:22.639 --> 00:36:25.840 Have our kids more central, do we want to be closer to them? 00:36:26.000 --> 00:36:27.679 Is this the time to make that move? 00:36:27.920 --> 00:36:32.719 Whereas before, because it was moving so quickly, they they were probably weren't comfortable. 00:36:32.880 --> 00:36:37.440 And then you have the introduction of a bit more sub-sale offers, which I've which I'll touch on. 00:36:37.599 --> 00:36:40.239 That that's starting to come into the forefront as well. 00:36:40.639 --> 00:36:42.639 It's interesting, because that's really not been there at all. 00:36:42.800 --> 00:36:50.239 It's been if you haven't got a cash offer, you're and is are we are we thinking of there's a premium or subject to sale? 00:36:50.719 --> 00:36:55.920 Still have to pay a premium, but sometimes So the cash buyer is g still going to win every day of the week? 00:36:56.159 --> 00:36:56.239 Yeah. 00:36:56.480 --> 00:37:02.960 How much at two mil, I would say the subside needs to be two two or two two five, almost two hundred grand, I would say. 00:37:03.280 --> 00:37:04.079 So ten percent more. 00:37:04.960 --> 00:37:05.360 Subsale. 00:37:05.440 --> 00:37:05.519 Yeah. 00:37:05.760 --> 00:37:05.840 Wow. 00:37:06.079 --> 00:37:12.800 But sometimes it's the only way to unlock that downsize or that next product for a lot of for a lot of sellers and buyers. 00:37:12.960 --> 00:37:19.280 So that would be the interesting landscape for the next six to twelve months to see what it does numbers-wise on listings as well. 00:37:19.679 --> 00:37:26.000 Um I I probably think they will go up because subsales increase the number of listings, but they don't go under offer. 00:37:26.320 --> 00:37:27.360 So it'd be interesting. 00:37:27.440 --> 00:37:39.599 Um, and I'm starting to see that in the Western suburbs are taking that on, depending on what type of property it is, because it could be slightly compromised and someone's trying to get out of something that's worth more compromised than that to get into that. 00:37:39.760 --> 00:37:46.400 So it it's a really interesting landscape which I'll probably keep a little bit of an eye on, because then you'll start to see different types of buyers enter the market. 00:37:46.559 --> 00:37:58.880 Ones that they probably felt they were stuck financially, they put all their money into their primary place, they might not have anything else to go, that they might have inherited a property if they don't have the cash flow to in order to get a loan. 00:37:59.119 --> 00:38:00.159 That's where I'll start. 00:38:00.559 --> 00:38:02.480 That's when it will start to become pretty interesting as well. 00:38:02.880 --> 00:38:07.440 And even the impact, like speaking to a few mortgage brokers around like bridging finance for that exact reason. 00:38:07.599 --> 00:38:10.719 So they've got that in place with the subject to sale off. 00:38:10.960 --> 00:38:12.480 I'm um definitely seeing a bit more of that. 00:38:12.880 --> 00:38:18.159 Yeah, and it

I think it would just be a lot more unique ways to kind of support the primary place. 00:38:18.320 --> 00:38:20.079 I think that's that's the the difference. 00:38:20.239 --> 00:38:36.159 Whereas as I touched on earlier, when we said 50-50 investors owner aux, I don't see why that number won't continue to keep climbing past 75, to be honest, because the metrics or the like for an investor, it it just doesn't quite make sense for them to enter. 00:38:36.239 --> 00:38:41.840 Um, and the types of products that are on the market versus the ones that people actually want to buy don't match up. 00:38:42.159 --> 00:38:45.119 One thing I do want to quickly touch on before we sort of close it out. 00:38:45.199 --> 00:38:55.440 Um when we had you on the podcast a couple of years ago, one of the conversation points we had was like first-time buyers, parents or grandparents helping them into the property market, different ways you were seeing it. 00:38:55.519 --> 00:38:58.480 Has has anything changed in up front or what are you seeing in that? 00:38:58.960 --> 00:39:00.400 I think it's even like more so. 00:39:00.559 --> 00:39:08.480 I think like I I think when we spoke was like the the the starting point of people being like, okay, maybe this is the only way for my my immediate family to enter the market. 00:39:08.559 --> 00:39:09.679 I'm seeing it so often. 00:39:09.920 --> 00:39:10.159 Yeah. 00:39:10.320 --> 00:39:11.360 Um more so than ever. 00:39:11.679 --> 00:39:12.880 What what in particular? 00:39:13.280 --> 00:39:17.199 Uh probably like price range in particular is probably a one to two. 00:39:17.440 --> 00:39:27.760 Like people that are moving from that villa who've got two kids that probably need the guarantee or going to or like a 300k top-up, 250, just to get them over the line to get a better quality home. 00:39:28.079 --> 00:39:35.119 Recently had one for that with a client that went through my team that bought in Bayswater, their finance was one one. 00:39:35.280 --> 00:39:39.920 There was a house for one three five, that was a four by two, and they've been looking at two by ones, three by ones. 00:39:40.000 --> 00:39:44.159 And the parents helped out to get them there because they're like, this is a set and forget. 00:39:44.320 --> 00:39:49.039 To pay that extra little bit of money in the long term if you're here for 20 years instead of doing that extension. 00:39:49.440 --> 00:39:50.400 That made more sense. 00:39:50.480 --> 00:39:50.559 Yeah. 00:39:50.719 --> 00:39:52.000 And you're seeing that across the board. 00:39:52.079 --> 00:39:55.920 Even if it's just to get the slightly better quality property, I'm saying that. 00:39:56.239 --> 00:39:56.400 Yeah. 00:39:56.719 --> 00:39:58.800 We did a great episode with Mike Killener. 00:39:59.280 --> 00:40:10.320 Um and and you know, what was interesting about that was for listeners, was it's not uh you don't have to dig into your pocket as a parent to help your kids into the property market necessarily. 00:40:10.719 --> 00:40:13.440 If you can, you might choose to, that that's great. 00:40:14.079 --> 00:40:25.440 But the idea of the guarantee where you're using the equity in your property to help uh your adult child secure a property. 00:40:25.760 --> 00:40:34.559 The only time you wouldn't do that is if you felt your adult child was a bit of a black sheep and there will there might be some doubt about whether they meet their repayments or not. 00:40:34.719 --> 00:40:39.599 But if you're confident your your children are going to meet their repayments, then that it's a great strategy. 00:40:39.920 --> 00:40:40.079 Yep. 00:40:40.400 --> 00:40:52.639 And they've got full oversight as well, because a lot of the time the the most buyers I see that go wrong don't rely on experience or knowledge from previous like um parents or anything like that. 00:40:52.719 --> 00:40:59.360 So it's I actually think it's a it's a massive positive because you've got someone in your corner that's educating you and that's more experienced than you helping you out. 00:40:59.599 --> 00:41:09.119 And that I only see it being more like I actually think it'll probably more so if we start to see upgrades and and people that have equity in their home that are willing to do something with it. 00:41:09.199 --> 00:41:17.119 Because a lot of the time people might have bought these places in the parents might own the home since 1990, bought it for 86, and it's what could be worth 2.3. 00:41:17.519 --> 00:41:20.719 And they're not willing to downsize, they don't need to for a period of time. 00:41:20.800 --> 00:41:24.159 So what what they're gonna do is the next best thing is help their immediate family. 00:41:24.239 --> 00:41:31.519 Aaron Powell So if you just to close out, if we get you to get your crystal ball out, it's been a pretty topsy-turvy period in Perth property, and like you said, things are changing. 00:41:31.840 --> 00:41:36.559 What do you think the next 12 months looks like and what conversations will you be having with people do you think? 00:41:37.039 --> 00:41:46.320 I think the more conversations they'll be having is um I think it'd be more of like home management in regards to do they think is it the best possible home that they have? 00:41:46.480 --> 00:41:48.159 What are the positives and negatives? 00:41:48.320 --> 00:41:55.119 And the potential for is it time to move, is it time to upgrade and downsides if obviously subsales come on. 00:41:55.280 --> 00:42:01.039 I think there'll be I think the stock levels will increase, but I don't think the quality stock levels will increase if that makes sense. 00:42:01.199 --> 00:42:12.159 I think it'll be a lot of the outer fringes, the um the apartments where no one really wants high strata fees, things like that, or investors trying to cash out they might have bought previous years. 00:42:12.320 --> 00:42:13.519 I think we'll start to see that. 00:42:13.679 --> 00:42:17.440 And I I think the days on market will probably go up a little bit, but not too much. 00:42:17.599 --> 00:42:24.079 And I I think it's still a seller's market, but there's a there's a bit of reprieve for buyers, which is a positive sign. 00:42:24.559 --> 00:42:26.880 Um that's what I probably see in the next 12 months. 00:42:26.960 --> 00:42:30.000 It's I wouldn't say it's it's a equilibrium just yet. 00:42:30.159 --> 00:42:37.039 I think we're significant away from that, as Dave's touched on with the population growth and what we're rebuilding. 00:42:37.119 --> 00:42:38.880 I don't think it's going to get there for some time. 00:42:39.360 --> 00:42:42.639 Um and I think we're always gonna have a shortage of good quality stock. 00:42:42.800 --> 00:42:45.199 Um that's my crystal ball for the next 12 months. 00:42:45.599 --> 00:42:45.840 Love it. 00:42:46.000 --> 00:42:48.880 Well, we might have to get you on in 12 months' time and revisit it and see where we're at. 00:42:49.039 --> 00:42:49.360 Yeah. 00:42:49.599 --> 00:42:51.519 Um Rowan, thanks so much for joining us. 00:42:51.679 --> 00:42:57.760 As our listeners know, we love it when you send through questions, topics, anything that you'd like us to explore in further detail. 00:42:57.840 --> 00:43:05.199 Um, if you do, send them to myself or David's email or the podcast email, which is ask at capitalhyphenpartners.com.au. 00:43:05.440 --> 00:43:06.559 Rowan, Dave, thanks for joining me. 00:43:06.960 --> 00:43:07.440 Been a pleasure. 00:43:07.599 --> 00:43:08.719 As always, thanks for having me. 00:43:09.119 --> 00:43:13.440 Thank you for listening to another episode of the Purposeful Investor Podcast. 00:43:13.679 --> 00:43:18.719 Make sure that you share it with a friend, someone in your network who you think would benefit from having a listen. 00:43:18.880 --> 00:43:31.679 Both David Andrew and myself, Aidan Wilkins, are authorised representatives of Capital Partners Consulting Proprietary Limited, and we operate under the Australian Financial Services Licence 227 148.