РАСШИФРОВКА 🔗
WEBVTT
1
00:00:14.539 --> 00:00:18.589
Thank you for joining Brett and I for today's episode
2
00:00:18.620 --> 00:00:22.390
of the Simply Financial Podcast. I'm your host, Christopher Calandra.
3
00:00:22.570 --> 00:00:28.949
I'm joined with Brett DiPasquale, part of the team here
4
00:00:28.969 --> 00:00:31.870
at Elliott Wealth Management, represented by the two of us.
5
00:00:32.369 --> 00:00:36.189
We want to increase your financial IQ with today's discussion,
6
00:00:36.270 --> 00:00:38.570
which is going to be brief, but we want to
7
00:00:38.670 --> 00:00:46.939
cover sort of post-midterm election analysis and sort of thoughts
8
00:00:47.679 --> 00:00:52.719
for the markets and the economy moving forward. Brett, does
9
00:00:52.740 --> 00:00:54.399
that sound like a pretty good summary of what we
10
00:00:54.439 --> 00:00:55.079
want to talk about?
11
00:00:55.640 --> 00:00:57.700
People are talking about it, so I think it's pretty good.
12
00:00:58.619 --> 00:01:00.700
So to set the stage, if you don't know, if
13
00:01:00.729 --> 00:01:03.329
you've been living under a rock, the Democrats had a
14
00:01:04.519 --> 00:01:09.540
wildly successful, uh, midterm election results. Uh, they picked up,
15
00:01:09.900 --> 00:01:11.540
I don't know how many seats in the house, but
16
00:01:11.560 --> 00:01:16.439
they got firm grip on the house. They really over, uh,
17
00:01:17.200 --> 00:01:21.969
over produced expectations in the Senate that they have 56
18
00:01:21.969 --> 00:01:27.590
Senate seats. And by historical standards, this is pretty normal.
19
00:01:27.790 --> 00:01:30.689
Often the out party does well in the midterm elections.
20
00:01:30.730 --> 00:01:34.390
That's pretty normal. I do think with that said, though,
21
00:01:34.790 --> 00:01:38.810
the strength and breadth of the Democrats' success on Election
22
00:01:38.849 --> 00:01:45.379
Day was surprising, even to the most optimistic Democrats and Republicans.
23
00:01:45.500 --> 00:01:50.060
So that's kind of where we find ourselves in terms
24
00:01:50.120 --> 00:01:53.099
of our clients and the work we do with investment
25
00:01:53.140 --> 00:01:57.140
advisory and financial planning and investment management. What do you
26
00:01:57.159 --> 00:01:59.400
think this means for everyone, Brett?
27
00:02:00.799 --> 00:02:03.480
I honestly don't think it means much. I mean, obviously,
28
00:02:03.519 --> 00:02:07.180
we knew going into the midterm elections, there was one
29
00:02:07.219 --> 00:02:09.539
of three outcomes that was going to come about. And
30
00:02:10.219 --> 00:02:13.879
there was a pretty strong sentiment that the Republicans weren't
31
00:02:13.930 --> 00:02:17.069
going to hold both the House and the Senate. It
32
00:02:17.110 --> 00:02:21.169
was looking like the Senate could have been up for
33
00:02:21.210 --> 00:02:24.530
grabs now that we see that it definitely wasn't. But
34
00:02:24.569 --> 00:02:27.509
I mean, overall, it doesn't really mean much for markets.
35
00:02:28.340 --> 00:02:31.780
Markets like certainty. And they definitely got some certainty on
36
00:02:31.879 --> 00:02:32.340
Tuesday night.
37
00:02:33.900 --> 00:02:37.620
Yeah, and as of this recording, the early results for
38
00:02:37.659 --> 00:02:42.020
the markets, the market's knee-jerk reaction has been nothing but positive, right?
39
00:02:42.960 --> 00:02:46.500
Yeah, correct. Yeah, it looks like it'll rally very nicely
40
00:02:47.719 --> 00:02:50.129
going forward. Might have a few bumps in the road,
41
00:02:50.430 --> 00:02:52.550
but overall, everything looks strong.
42
00:02:53.689 --> 00:02:57.030
Do you think, Brett, that, again, we don't know how
43
00:02:57.069 --> 00:02:59.370
the markets will perform by the time this is published?
44
00:02:59.409 --> 00:03:01.189
Of course, you know, there's a little bit of a delay.
45
00:03:01.639 --> 00:03:04.620
between when we record and when we publish. But let's
46
00:03:04.639 --> 00:03:09.530
just assume that this short-term trend continues. The market thrives
47
00:03:10.069 --> 00:03:14.669
after the election. Do you think that's more because the
48
00:03:14.750 --> 00:03:22.030
markets are welcoming of Democrat policies and legislation that might
49
00:03:22.050 --> 00:03:27.270
be passed? Or do you think it's more of what
50
00:03:27.330 --> 00:03:30.539
you said that The market's just happy it has more
51
00:03:30.599 --> 00:03:33.780
certainty than it did the day before the election. Or
52
00:03:33.840 --> 00:03:37.620
the third choice, do you think it's more welcoming of, hey,
53
00:03:37.659 --> 00:03:40.500
we're going to have gridlock, not much is going to happen,
54
00:03:41.240 --> 00:03:43.020
and we could just focus on the economy?
55
00:03:44.680 --> 00:03:47.020
I think it's a combination of number two and number three.
56
00:03:47.180 --> 00:03:50.680
I think that the certainty is the number one thing.
57
00:03:50.699 --> 00:03:55.400
I think number two would also be that we will
58
00:03:55.439 --> 00:03:57.689
have gridlock. But it's going to be interesting to see
59
00:03:57.710 --> 00:04:01.669
the direction that the new Democratic House and Senate take,
60
00:04:02.030 --> 00:04:05.930
whether it's going to be more litigation against the current administration,
61
00:04:06.469 --> 00:04:11.289
what type of ideas come out of them, and whether
62
00:04:11.310 --> 00:04:13.210
they're accepted or not. And I think that's going to
63
00:04:13.229 --> 00:04:19.209
be really the key, especially in 2027 before an upcoming
64
00:04:19.209 --> 00:04:22.529
2028 election, which I can't believe we're even talking about that.
65
00:04:23.779 --> 00:04:26.240
I agree with you. And I think the first option
66
00:04:26.279 --> 00:04:30.509
I gave you is the least important. And that is
67
00:04:30.589 --> 00:04:33.990
because it's very unclear to me, and I think to
68
00:04:34.050 --> 00:04:40.970
most people, what the Democratic Party will want to do
69
Load full transcript
00:04:41.050 --> 00:04:45.180
with this new power that it has in Congress. Most
70
00:04:45.250 --> 00:04:51.649
of the politicians that ran They have varying ideas on policies,
71
00:04:51.769 --> 00:04:54.550
and of course they have some ideas, maybe good, bad,
72
00:04:54.589 --> 00:04:57.189
and ugly, whatever. But I don't think there's really a
73
00:04:57.370 --> 00:05:03.680
unifying initiative that the Democrats seem to be able to
74
00:05:03.740 --> 00:05:06.899
rally around. So it's very unclear what they're going to
75
00:05:06.959 --> 00:05:09.279
do with this power, if anything. Would you agree with
76
00:05:09.319 --> 00:05:09.939
that assessment?
77
00:05:10.620 --> 00:05:14.680
Yeah, I think the biggest plan for them as of
78
00:05:14.759 --> 00:05:17.529
now is is going to be to try to undo
79
00:05:17.610 --> 00:05:19.790
some of the things that have been done over the
80
00:05:19.829 --> 00:05:24.290
past two years. Whatever new ideas come out of that
81
00:05:24.329 --> 00:05:27.750
are yet to be seen, but even looking forward a
82
00:05:27.790 --> 00:05:32.209
little bit, we've got some big things that could possibly
83
00:05:32.269 --> 00:05:36.569
be reversed going into 2028, including the new tax cuts
84
00:05:36.829 --> 00:05:39.120
from last year. So a lot of those things are
85
00:05:39.220 --> 00:05:40.860
yet to be seen, but it's gonna be interesting.
86
00:05:41.759 --> 00:05:43.560
Even if they're passed out of both the House and
87
00:05:43.579 --> 00:05:48.920
the Senate, Seems likely the Trump, President Trump would veto them.
88
00:05:48.959 --> 00:05:52.199
That is his signature legislation. So I think that's sort
89
00:05:52.230 --> 00:05:53.930
of dead on arrival. Is that fair?
90
00:05:54.470 --> 00:05:55.790
I would hope so. I would hope so.
91
00:05:56.629 --> 00:06:02.009
Yeah. And then from a historical perspective, these swings in
92
00:06:02.050 --> 00:06:07.389
midterm elections, it's pretty common. You know, Obama in the
93
00:06:07.449 --> 00:06:10.920
midterm elections, he lost lots of seats. Clinton experienced that.
94
00:06:10.959 --> 00:06:13.730
I believe George W. Bush did too. We had less
95
00:06:13.769 --> 00:06:16.149
of that in the Biden administration. But there is a
96
00:06:16.230 --> 00:06:21.399
historical precedent for this. This is not new territory. But
97
00:06:21.439 --> 00:06:25.660
from a historical perspective, we've looked as market watchers and
98
00:06:26.199 --> 00:06:29.959
knowledgeable about the history of the markets. This is really
99
00:06:30.000 --> 00:06:31.970
no big thing, right? Which is what you said at
100
00:06:31.990 --> 00:06:32.379
the beginning.
101
00:06:33.129 --> 00:06:34.949
Yeah, I don't think so. I don't think so at all.
102
00:06:37.519 --> 00:06:38.860
I was in a meeting with you. We don't do
103
00:06:38.879 --> 00:06:41.040
many joint meetings these days, but we were together in
104
00:06:41.100 --> 00:06:44.959
a client meeting before the election. One of the things
105
00:06:45.000 --> 00:06:47.160
I got wrong, by the way, was I said that
106
00:06:47.639 --> 00:06:50.319
I thought the Republicans would hold the Senate. Boy, that
107
00:06:50.370 --> 00:06:53.889
was wrong. I probably should call Marianne and apologize. You
108
00:06:53.930 --> 00:06:56.910
thought the Democrats would take both the House and the Senate.
109
00:06:57.029 --> 00:07:00.610
So you were correct. One of the additional points I
110
00:07:00.629 --> 00:07:03.649
had made in that meeting is one of the good
111
00:07:03.670 --> 00:07:06.740
things is with the certainty you talked about, And now
112
00:07:06.839 --> 00:07:11.579
with this divided government that probably means mostly gridlock, I
113
00:07:11.649 --> 00:07:16.370
think the positive is that the markets could then focus
114
00:07:16.430 --> 00:07:19.810
on what's happening in the economy with this AI revolution
115
00:07:20.569 --> 00:07:24.329
and with corporate profitability and the job market being healthy.
116
00:07:24.629 --> 00:07:28.149
I think the positive is that there's going to be
117
00:07:28.209 --> 00:07:30.790
less going on in the political world that might impact
118
00:07:30.810 --> 00:07:33.129
the markets. Could be wrong about that, but that's my
119
00:07:33.329 --> 00:07:36.779
current thought. And that means the markets could focus on
120
00:07:36.839 --> 00:07:39.519
the real economy. And there's some good things in the
121
00:07:39.560 --> 00:07:42.379
real economy, especially if we could get things wrapped up
122
00:07:42.459 --> 00:07:45.779
in Iran and have oil prices come down some more.
123
00:07:45.920 --> 00:07:46.800
What do you think about that?
124
00:07:47.939 --> 00:07:50.199
Yeah, I think so. I think the biggest thing right
125
00:07:50.259 --> 00:07:53.439
now is the Iran war. It's inflation that's kind of
126
00:07:53.459 --> 00:07:56.720
piggybacking off of that with energy prices. So I think
127
00:07:56.740 --> 00:07:59.350
that's a big one. And I'll also mention this, too.
128
00:07:59.370 --> 00:08:02.800
Just taking a look at the big picture, which is
129
00:08:02.839 --> 00:08:05.680
what we've been discussing with clients a lot, is the
130
00:08:05.699 --> 00:08:09.040
market's had a great run since 2022. So we've had
131
00:08:09.079 --> 00:08:12.800
some really, really good years. And historically, midterm election years
132
00:08:13.120 --> 00:08:16.980
do underperform. So big picture-wise, where we're at for the
133
00:08:17.019 --> 00:08:21.889
year in 2026 looks great. So with the strength of
134
00:08:21.930 --> 00:08:25.449
the economy that you were mentioning, businesses are doing well,
135
00:08:25.509 --> 00:08:28.189
people are spending money, it's a lot of green flags
136
00:08:28.230 --> 00:08:30.329
for 2027.
137
00:08:30.410 --> 00:08:33.529
Very good. Well, let's leave it there. Everyone that's listening,
138
00:08:33.610 --> 00:08:36.190
if you have any questions or want to discuss any
139
00:08:36.230 --> 00:08:39.210
of this further, especially if you're freaked out about the
140
00:08:39.250 --> 00:08:42.029
results of the election, you could reach out to us.
141
00:08:42.269 --> 00:08:44.730
If you're clients, you have our email and phone numbers,
142
00:08:44.850 --> 00:08:49.720
but for anyone else, you could go to our website, elliottwealth.com.
143
00:08:50.240 --> 00:08:53.480
You could sign up for a complimentary consultation, get more
144
00:08:53.519 --> 00:08:56.600
information on the work we do for clients, how we
145
00:08:56.639 --> 00:08:59.980
help our clients win with money. Thank you for listening
146
00:09:00.080 --> 00:09:04.059
to today's episode of the Simply Financial podcast. We will
147
00:09:04.100 --> 00:09:07.059
be back with you on the next episode very soon.
148
00:09:08.340 --> 00:09:12.350
The views expressed are not necessarily the opinion of Osaic Wealth, Inc.,
149
00:09:12.879 --> 00:09:15.899
and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an
150
00:09:16.000 --> 00:09:20.440
offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Investing
151
00:09:20.519 --> 00:09:24.919
is subject to risks including loss of principal invested. Past
152
00:09:24.980 --> 00:09:28.909
performance is not a guarantee of future results. No strategy
153
00:09:28.970 --> 00:09:32.750
can assure a profit nor protect against loss. Please note
154
00:09:32.769 --> 00:09:37.080
that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information should be
155
00:09:37.120 --> 00:09:41.799
relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice. Please note,
156
00:09:42.340 --> 00:09:45.799
the information being provided is strictly as a courtesy. When
157
00:09:45.820 --> 00:09:48.700
you link to any of the websites provided here, you
158
00:09:48.740 --> 00:09:52.240
are leaving this website. We make no representation as to
159
00:09:52.279 --> 00:09:56.200
the completeness or accuracy of information provided at these websites.
160
00:09:57.159 --> 00:09:59.970
nor is the company liable for any direct or indirect
161
00:10:00.190 --> 00:10:04.070
technical or system issues or any consequences arising out of
162
00:10:04.110 --> 00:10:08.250
your access to or your use of third-party technologies, websites,
163
00:10:08.309 --> 00:10:12.730
information and programs made available through this website. When you
164
00:10:12.889 --> 00:10:15.860
access one of these websites, you are leaving our website
165
00:10:16.029 --> 00:10:19.490
and assume total responsibility and risk for your use of
166
00:10:19.529 --> 00:10:23.549
the websites you are linking to. Securities and advisory services
167
00:10:23.690 --> 00:10:29.320
are offered through Osaic Wealth, Inc., Member FINRA, SIPC. Insurance
168
00:10:29.340 --> 00:10:34.539
services offered through Elliott Wealth Management Services, LLC, not affiliated
169
00:10:34.580 --> 00:10:35.669
with Osaic Wealth, Inc.