Полная расшифровка выпуска AI Is a Business Decision, Not a Tech Decision

hardware today? 00:04:51.129 --> 00:05:02.329 I think one of the most fascinating things of the last couple months is if you scroll some of these so some of the social media platforms, there's like a breakthrough product launch that happens daily. 00:05:02.490 --> 00:05:02.810 Yeah. 00:05:03.050 --> 00:05:08.409 Like, did you see the gold, the gold fusion company transmuting gold? 00:05:08.490 --> 00:05:16.490 Like they've physically proved that they can do it and they're you know essentially creating gold from from isotopes. 00:05:16.730 --> 00:05:29.689 And so, yeah, it's like if we're creating gold out of thin air through better reactors and you know, ice i weird isotope combinations, what can't we do? 00:05:29.769 --> 00:05:34.810 And like even like in the hardware space, what is protected if they're doing you know, if you're if you're able to do that? 00:05:34.969 --> 00:05:37.449 So, yeah, that's been mostly where my head's been. 00:05:37.529 --> 00:05:45.930 And I think there's there's quite a few different categories I'm excited about, and a few deals in particular that I think will get over the line. 00:05:46.089 --> 00:05:47.849 So feel good, but yeah. 00:05:48.170 --> 00:05:53.930 You know, one observation that I've had is we know we look at these like software waves, right? 00:05:54.009 --> 00:05:57.930 We went from client server to like cloud. 00:05:58.649 --> 00:06:07.930 And the trend, the the movement from client server to cloud was actually really tough for incumbent companies, right? 00:06:08.089 --> 00:06:12.810 When Salesforce came out, it was like they they literally had the logo no software. 00:06:12.969 --> 00:06:16.409 Well, it was really just web-based, cloud-based software, right? 00:06:17.209 --> 00:06:24.889 And it was very hard for client-server companies, like it took them years to come up with their cloud version. 00:06:25.449 --> 00:06:26.649 Took them years. 00:06:26.889 --> 00:06:36.810 What's interesting about some of this AI stuff is the incumbents are building AI features almost faster than startups. 00:06:38.089 --> 00:06:43.529 I mean, Procore just like spun some things up, and Autodesk just spins some things up, right? 00:06:43.849 --> 00:06:47.289 And so when you look at that, I mean, that's like your first sign. 00:06:48.329 --> 00:07:03.370 Like, can you build anything defensible when the old school incumbent don't spend enough money, don't have enough incentives to build new things, are moving faster than startups. 00:07:04.250 --> 00:07:06.810 Like that's that's really, really different. 00:07:07.050 --> 00:07:07.849 Totally. 00:07:08.170 --> 00:07:10.089 And and I don't think you've ever seen that. 00:07:10.170 --> 00:07:19.689 I mean, whether it's client server, I was around for like the mid-range movement, you know, from AS400s to clients, I mean, all that stuff was like really hard. 00:07:20.009 --> 00:07:24.009 This transition for incumbents has not been hard. 00:07:24.649 --> 00:07:32.409 And and

so I think I look at that and I go, like, you know, kind of confirming some of our own thinking around investing. 00:07:33.050 --> 00:07:44.810 But then at the same moment, you see your LinkedIn fleet feed full of like another startup doing AI SaaS, right? 00:07:44.889 --> 00:07:48.649 So not AI native, but like AI SaaS. 00:07:50.009 --> 00:07:52.730 And it's that that doesn't make sense to me. 00:07:52.810 --> 00:07:53.610 Like, what are we doing? 00:07:53.689 --> 00:07:55.769 You know, more AI, AI CRMs. 00:07:55.930 --> 00:08:00.810 Like, do we need an AI CRM or do you just get a CRM and it has an AI feature? 00:08:01.050 --> 00:08:01.370 Yeah. 00:08:01.529 --> 00:08:14.250 Um, so it's and I do think you also have this weird dynamic where I always say, you know, back when you know, early days of internet in '92, we had this mindset that like the internet was free. 00:08:14.810 --> 00:08:15.050 Right? 00:08:15.289 --> 00:08:19.129 Unlimited everything was free was kind of the mindset. 00:08:19.289 --> 00:08:23.849 And that's where, you know, like the Facebooks of the world, like, oh, we're not going to charge for our platform. 00:08:23.930 --> 00:08:25.129 That's not how that works, right? 00:08:25.289 --> 00:08:33.370 It quickly went to add monetization models versus charging for using tools on the internet, right? 00:08:33.769 --> 00:08:38.409 And so, which is also funny, I don't know if you saw that Foursquare got bought. 00:08:38.570 --> 00:08:40.970 I was just like, that's like blasts from the past. 00:08:41.289 --> 00:08:44.570 But um the bending spoons play who bought that. 00:08:45.289 --> 00:08:46.490 I don't think it was bending spoons. 00:08:46.649 --> 00:08:48.809 I think somebody bought it for like a thousand bucks or something. 00:08:48.970 --> 00:08:50.409 Like it was like bad. 00:08:50.809 --> 00:08:57.450 But but it but it's just kind of funny when you think about all those motions. 00:08:57.529 --> 00:09:05.370 And I think with AI, people are kind of moving into the software is free mindset, just like the internet was free. 00:09:05.610 --> 00:09:07.370 Well, why am I paying for software now? 00:09:07.769 --> 00:09:09.129 You know, it's free. 00:09:09.450 --> 00:09:17.450 Now, I think that interesting, I was talking to a CEO the other day about the idea that software is free, and he made an interesting point. 00:09:17.529 --> 00:09:26.250 He said, Well, I don't know, like I might be willing to pay for software because there's a cap on token costs. 00:09:26.409 --> 00:09:39.450 In other words, his point was, great, we get rid of our CRM, whatever, and we build something internally, and I have no idea what my usage costs are gonna be. 00:09:40.250 --> 00:09:50.169 So, in many ways, his theory was I'm gonna keep buying software because it's not usage based, it's capped. 00:09:50.970 --> 00:10:02.169 And if I do something usage-based, I have no predictability, it can create all the efficiencies in the world, but if I don't have predictability, I can't run my company, which I thought was interesting. 00:10:03.049 --> 00:10:05.450 Makes sense, yeah, makes a lot of sense. 00:10:05.529 --> 00:10:08.090 I think there's just a lot of uncertainty on what the token costs would be. 00:10:08.250 --> 00:10:14.970 You diffuse agents throughout the whole organization and it gets potentially very costly fast. 00:10:15.210 --> 00:10:22.250 Yeah, it's like all the people that when Uber rides were five dollars, they sold their car and said it's not worth owning a car. 00:10:22.330 --> 00:10:24.649 I can get around for five bucks everywhere, right? 00:10:24.809 --> 00:10:26.169 Not worth having a car. 00:10:26.409 --> 00:10:29.689 Then you know that changed, and it's like, oh, I need to go get a car. 00:10:30.009 --> 00:10:31.129 You did that, didn't you? 00:10:31.370 --> 00:10:34.490 Yeah, I went, I went like what, two years or something without a car? 00:10:34.730 --> 00:10:36.090 Yeah, yeah. 00:10:36.169 --> 00:10:39.289 The running joke was like between Uber and hitchhiking. 00:10:39.529 --> 00:10:41.529 Because like people, people would like leave the office. 00:10:41.610 --> 00:10:42.569 I'm like, hey, where are you heading? 00:10:42.730 --> 00:10:45.370 And they're like, Oh, this one, like, oh, can you drop me off over here? 00:10:45.610 --> 00:10:46.889 It was pretty funny, actually. 00:10:47.210 --> 00:10:49.610 Bumin rides, yeah, just bumming rides off there. 00:10:49.769 --> 00:10:51.370 Like, which way are you going, man? 00:10:52.490 --> 00:11:00.889 And I think we were in a wee work, so I just like walk on the like I'm walking the way out, and people would like grabbing their book, you know, their backpacks and heading down, like, which way are you running, man? 00:11:01.210 --> 00:11:03.129 Yeah, it was like almost two years. 00:11:03.450 --> 00:11:04.889 It's pretty good, yeah. 00:11:05.850 --> 00:11:06.409 It was a good run. 00:11:06.730 --> 00:11:10.009 So again, you bought a car, yeah, yeah. 00:11:10.889 --> 00:11:13.769 A couple the other direction. 00:11:14.809 --> 00:11:16.169 I think you went a little too far. 00:11:17.610 --> 00:11:19.529 Spiritual about that, yeah. 00:11:20.730 --> 00:11:27.929 But I do think like I I was I was making this comment to someone today, actually. 00:11:28.809 --> 00:11:41.529 And I said, You you have to I I think like everybody's worried about AI, and I think you have to take a position and have conviction around it. 00:11:42.009 --> 00:11:42.330 For sure. 00:11:42.730 --> 00:11:44.330 And I think that's the only way you survive. 00:11:44.409 --> 00:11:52.649 And so I was talking to somebody, I said, Look, do you believe the next five years are is gonna define the next 50 years? 00:11:53.450 --> 00:11:53.769 Yep. 00:11:54.009 --> 00:11:54.889 I'm like, okay. 00:11:55.769 --> 00:12:00.009 You're the CEO of a company that's been around for call it a hundred years. 00:12:01.049 --> 00:12:06.330 The decisions you make in the next five

years, you might be the guy that sunk the ship. 00:12:07.529 --> 00:12:10.889 Like you might be that guy if you're not careful. 00:12:11.689 --> 00:12:13.689 And he was like, Well, you know, like tell me more. 00:12:13.769 --> 00:12:14.649 Like, what are you talking about? 00:12:14.730 --> 00:12:18.730 I'm like, you keep thinking that AI is a technology decision. 00:12:18.889 --> 00:12:24.409 You keep thinking AI is an innovation decision, and it is far from it. 00:12:24.490 --> 00:12:25.689 It is a business decision. 00:12:25.769 --> 00:12:29.610 I was like, get rid of all the technology people, right? 00:12:29.850 --> 00:12:39.370 Like, focus on what you think the business decision you're making is and what are what kind of business decisions you're making, and just operate under the conviction. 00:12:39.450 --> 00:12:45.450 Like, if you believe the next five years is going to change everything, like what's the business side of it? 00:12:45.610 --> 00:12:50.250 Because I just kind of operate, you know, even like the stuff we're building, dude. 00:12:50.409 --> 00:12:57.850 Like, I spend most of my day in our engineering Slack channel just going, like, holy shit, like they did what? 00:12:58.169 --> 00:13:00.330 Like this, like it's like magic, right? 00:13:00.569 --> 00:13:08.409 And every day you spend time, you know, around AI, like doing real stuff, you're like, oh, like literally the possibilities are endless. 00:13:08.649 --> 00:13:15.129 So, how are you gonna build a business model not based on probabilities, but the possibilities? 00:13:15.450 --> 00:13:18.970 And that's where like CEOs, I think, are getting really, really lost. 00:13:19.129 --> 00:13:25.049 By I had one the other day said, Oh, we shut off everything because of cybersecurity. 00:13:25.689 --> 00:13:26.409 Yeah, yeah. 00:13:26.649 --> 00:13:32.250 Which is and I apparently they got ransomware last year, had nothing to do with AI, but they got ransomware. 00:13:32.490 --> 00:13:34.009 Yeah, so they're like worried about it. 00:13:34.090 --> 00:13:35.049 I'm like, okay, great. 00:13:35.129 --> 00:13:39.210 Like that's the someone could also hit you over the head in the parking lot. 00:13:39.289 --> 00:13:44.569 Like, I mean, like there, there's there's always risks, you know, waking up and getting out of bed is a risk, right? 00:13:45.129 --> 00:14:00.569 But but I think just the shift of thinking around like it's a business decision, and so when you read some of the reports coming out, like, well, you know, AI isn't getting the ROI and people are not seeing the benefit. 00:14:00.889 --> 00:14:04.409 I'm like, because business people didn't deploy it. 00:14:05.129 --> 00:14:10.490 Business people didn't deploy it with some business objective, right? 00:14:10.730 --> 00:14:14.490 It was like, yeah, we're gonna we're gonna hire this consulting firm and we're gonna do AI. 00:14:14.730 --> 00:14:16.169 Like, great. 00:14:16.649 --> 00:14:25.370 And unfortunately, I think one of

the things you have to decide is we're gonna deploy AI and cut 20,000 people of our workforce. 00:14:25.529 --> 00:14:32.889 Like, I think you have to like either decide and have conviction that says AI is gonna replace some people. 00:14:33.210 --> 00:14:42.330 So my metric for success will be getting rid of people, and you won't be popular, and maybe you don't say it out loud, but maybe that's the thing, you know what I mean? 00:14:42.409 --> 00:14:54.009 So I think there's just this weird, like as a business person, I told the CEO, I was like, you know what you need to do is you need to go take like one day off to put your phone away, whatever, and try to understand what you think this business looks like. 00:14:54.169 --> 00:14:57.929 Assuming AI is magic, what does your business look like in 50 years? 00:14:58.090 --> 00:15:00.090 And stop talking to the IT people. 00:15:00.250 --> 00:15:00.889 Yeah. 00:15:01.129 --> 00:15:03.129 And and he was like, no, I think you're right. 00:15:03.210 --> 00:15:04.649 I like, I think we're all thinking about. 00:15:04.889 --> 00:15:10.569 And and by the way, when you when you think about like have conviction about it, it's all look, it may not be popular. 00:15:10.730 --> 00:15:14.490 It's okay to say like AI is going to cut 20% of my workforce. 00:15:15.450 --> 00:15:16.889 I don't have a problem with that. 00:15:17.529 --> 00:15:33.210 I think one of the one of the one of the questions I'd have for this person that you're this hypothetical person you're talking to, is do they actually understand and believe and are they convicted that it is magic? 00:15:33.529 --> 00:15:38.730 Because something you said stood out to me, which is, hey, I'm in my engineering team Slack channel every day. 00:15:39.049 --> 00:15:44.330 As a, you know, as an AC executive, you're not in that, right? 00:15:44.569 --> 00:15:50.809 You're you're, you know, maybe using a chat interface and and getting some quick, you know, quick answers. 00:15:50.970 --> 00:16:02.409 Maybe your your workflows are improving slightly, but I just know the types of use cases that most executives are that that that that we work with are are seeing and using with AI. 00:16:02.490 --> 00:16:12.250 And unless you're like involved in the actual engineering and development andor using yeah front frontier-oriented products that people are building for you, you don't know that it's magic. 00:16:12.409 --> 00:16:12.649 Yeah. 00:16:12.809 --> 00:16:13.689 It's so funny. 00:16:13.929 --> 00:16:17.610 This morning, Barry said, KP, you know, we're in a bubble. 00:16:17.850 --> 00:16:21.450 Like he's like, we're we're like in a 1% bubble. 00:16:21.610 --> 00:16:23.450 Like it's not even like, oh, we're in this 30%. 00:16:23.769 --> 00:16:27.049 He's like, dude, we're in the under 1% bubble. 00:16:27.289 --> 00:16:32.409 And it was funny he said that because I had someone else tell me the other day, this is fascinating. 00:16:32.649 --> 00:16:34.090 I was like, are you using AI? 00:16:34.169 --> 00:16:36.490 It's like, oh yeah, use it every day. 00:16:36.730 --> 00:16:37.370 I'm like, really? 00:16:37.610 --> 00:16:38.090 Like what? 00:16:38.250 --> 00:16:42.649 Well, I go into Google search, I type something in, and I click AI mode. 00:16:43.529 --> 00:16:46.330 And I was like, oh my God, right? 00:16:46.569 --> 00:16:47.450 Barry's right. 00:16:47.610 --> 00:16:49.450 We're in a 1% bubble. 00:16:49.689 --> 00:16:50.090 Yes. 00:16:50.250 --> 00:16:58.490 And so, but you know, one of the things that stands, the advice I give executives all the time, like, you need to have some nerdy friends. 00:16:59.450 --> 00:17:04.809 I'm like, I might be one of them, but you should have nerdy friends that are like, hey man, did you know? 00:17:05.130 --> 00:17:07.210 Because I don't think you're gonna get it. 00:17:07.289 --> 00:17:13.690 You know, if you're the CEO of Acom, there's a you you have a bunch of nerds in your company, but not that this is different. 00:17:13.769 --> 00:17:15.370 These are different nerds, right? 00:17:16.250 --> 00:17:28.170 I think I've been playing around with Muse because I feel like Muse has the potential to capture the boomer generation because it's Facebook and they're hanging out on Facebook, right? 00:17:28.650 --> 00:17:34.009 That maybe that channel to market is somewhat frictionless and it's free, and I've been playing around with it. 00:17:34.250 --> 00:17:35.369 It's not bad. 00:17:35.609 --> 00:17:36.329 Oh, it's great. 00:17:36.569 --> 00:17:37.369 It's like it's not bad. 00:17:37.930 --> 00:17:41.289 I use instinct, but I've used Muse too, similar product, but yeah. 00:17:42.009 --> 00:17:50.009 And I only have it on my personal stuff, and you know, it told me, like, hey, this subscription's renewing. 00:17:50.250 --> 00:17:52.970 I'm like, well, I don't want it, cancel it. 00:17:53.129 --> 00:17:54.170 It said okay. 00:17:54.970 --> 00:18:00.170 And all I had to do was click a button, and it did I just approve it and it did it, right? 00:18:00.809 --> 00:18:07.450 And also funny, and of course, you know, for some of us, tax season was this month, right? 00:18:08.329 --> 00:18:15.849 Um some of you might get that, but others of you well, like, yeah, most of us do not pay on time, we pay in October, right? 00:18:16.490 --> 00:18:18.329 And it started bugging me. 00:18:21.049 --> 00:18:23.769 Yeah, October 15th, 1159. 00:18:23.849 --> 00:18:40.490 I'm holding on my cash until then, but uh, Muse sent me a note saying, like, hey, um, your accountant said they were gonna get you the signed copies of your tax returns, ASAP. 00:18:40.970 --> 00:18:42.490 I still haven't seen them. 00:18:42.569 --> 00:18:44.410 Would you like me to ping them? 00:18:45.210 --> 00:18:46.730 Muse said that, yeah. 00:18:46.890 --> 00:18:47.529 Oh, yeah, yeah. 00:18:47.769 --> 00:18:49.210 I was like, Yeah, do it, get on there. 00:18:50.089 --> 00:18:50.650 Get them. 00:18:50.730 --> 00:18:51.129

Yeah. 00:18:52.250 --> 00:18:59.210 So, you know, for me, like the proactiveness is the that was that that's like that's the new thing. 00:18:59.450 --> 00:19:01.690 Yeah, I'm fairly convinced by the end of the year. 00:19:02.650 --> 00:19:08.650 Yeah, right by the end of the year, I think we will be prompted by our AIs more than we prompt them. 00:19:08.809 --> 00:19:12.650 I mean, I'm seeing it with Muse, it's always on my case about something. 00:19:12.890 --> 00:19:13.289 Yep. 00:19:13.690 --> 00:19:15.849 You know, did I turn in an expense report? 00:19:16.009 --> 00:19:16.890 This charge came in. 00:19:16.970 --> 00:19:17.690 Is this a you know? 00:19:17.769 --> 00:19:21.210 I think the other day it asked me if that was a a business flight. 00:19:21.529 --> 00:19:21.849 Yeah. 00:19:22.089 --> 00:19:23.849 And did I need to be reimbursed? 00:19:23.930 --> 00:19:27.609 And then it noticed on the payment that it was actually a corporate card. 00:19:27.690 --> 00:19:31.049 And it's like, oh, it's it was actually charged to a corporate card, you're okay. 00:19:31.369 --> 00:19:32.009 What the hell? 00:19:32.089 --> 00:19:33.049 Like, you know. 00:19:34.250 --> 00:19:46.490 So I do I do think, I mean, Barry's point was like, you know, because he was like, I mean, I get it, we're in a bubble, but when he was like, we're in a one percent bubble, at first I was like, nah, man. 00:19:46.650 --> 00:19:48.890 And then I was like, oh, I think you're Iraq. 00:19:50.089 --> 00:19:51.129 It's a good question, yeah. 00:19:51.289 --> 00:19:52.890 How how much of a bubble? 00:19:53.129 --> 00:20:05.049 I don't quite know, but I do know that, yeah, in the context of where we were talking about this hypothetical situation of like, hey, and you you're making a business decision, not you're not buying technology. 00:20:05.450 --> 00:20:16.329 I do think for most people that is a hard like they're not they're not quite convicted that that's the case, that the next five years are actually going to matter to the case. 00:20:16.730 --> 00:20:17.369 Which is fine. 00:20:17.529 --> 00:20:25.690 I mean, I'm just kind of saying, like, I think the the service you do as a leader in any organization is not have conviction. 00:20:25.849 --> 00:20:29.769 Being wishy-washy is not a great sign of leadership. 00:20:29.930 --> 00:20:31.849 But I think you can say, like, I disagree. 00:20:31.930 --> 00:20:33.849 I don't think AI is going to affect anything. 00:20:34.009 --> 00:20:34.329 Great. 00:20:34.490 --> 00:20:37.849 Own it, have conviction, make your business decisions that way. 00:20:38.009 --> 00:20:41.769 I mean, you're wrong, but go ahead and do that, you know. 00:20:42.329 --> 00:20:44.569 But I do think there's a lack of conviction. 00:20:44.730 --> 00:20:50.009 I mean, I think in general, there's just like a lack of conviction around what the future looks like. 00:20:50.089 --> 00:20:54.170 And I think that's that's the big thing I think leadership has to think about. 00:20:55.930 --> 00:20:58.410 I was just gonna say homework for anyone listening. 00:20:58.650 --> 00:21:05.529 If you have not already downloaded Muse or an alternative would be Instinct, that's the product I refer to. 00:21:05.769 --> 00:21:08.170 They're basically personal AI assistants. 00:21:08.329 --> 00:21:10.410 Muse is Facebook's product. 00:21:10.650 --> 00:21:14.410 Probably I think it's I think Instinct, you actually have to get an invite. 00:21:14.490 --> 00:21:17.210 So I would just recommend downloading Muse MUSE. 00:21:17.529 --> 00:21:19.289 Go to the app store and download it. 00:21:19.450 --> 00:21:26.410 I think you'll be pretty blown away by the use cases that you can gain real value from right away from it. 00:21:26.569 --> 00:21:38.490 And I think it's a pretty good, I mean, to look at where things are going, like consumer-wise, I mean, really, it's really interesting to use the product and just think through, oh, this is like how I'm gonna buy everything. 00:21:38.650 --> 00:21:45.450 I'm not I'm not gonna go through the front interfaces anymore, the front interfaces of the internet to to purchase anything. 00:21:45.529 --> 00:21:51.849 I'm not gonna, you know, type into, I'm I'm not typing URLs into, you know, an address bar anymore. 00:21:51.930 --> 00:21:57.609 I'm just gonna like, I'm gonna ask my agent, pull up links and pull up websites and buy buy stuff for me. 00:21:57.769 --> 00:22:03.769 And I I know they're for what it's worth, the business model and news and and instinct, it's all gonna be transaction based. 00:22:03.849 --> 00:22:15.769 There's not even a few products because they know that purchases are it's already seen in product, like purchases are where you can take, you know, there there's enough purchases happening through them that you can take real fees. 00:22:16.170 --> 00:22:17.049 Make real money on it. 00:22:17.210 --> 00:22:17.369 Yeah. 00:22:17.450 --> 00:22:28.650 So funny enough, you know, through all our travels, I was in Atlanta for a week and I met with one of my friends who you know, who's a unicorn exited founder, right? 00:22:29.129 --> 00:22:31.690 And I was just he's literally doing nothing right now. 00:22:31.769 --> 00:22:34.410 And I went and had drinks with him. 00:22:34.730 --> 00:22:38.170 And I asked him, like, dude, you're like, you're not in the game anymore. 00:22:38.250 --> 00:22:39.609 You've exited. 00:22:40.009 --> 00:22:41.609 You're not building anything. 00:22:41.849 --> 00:22:43.849 What do you think about AI? 00:22:44.809 --> 00:22:51.529 And he was just like, I'm unconvinced that most of these tech companies are going to make it. 00:22:51.769 --> 00:22:56.490 I think it's going to be the traditional businesses that really leverage AI. 00:22:56.809 --> 00:22:58.650 They're going to crush it. 00:22:59.129 --> 00:23:04.970 But you know, there's just too many tools, there's too many things in terms of AI tools out there. 00:23:05.049 --> 00:23:07.129 So it's like

being in the business is the thing. 00:23:07.210 --> 00:23:08.410 And I'm like, well, what are you doing? 00:23:08.490 --> 00:23:16.250 He's like, I think the next big market is analog individual experiences. 00:23:17.210 --> 00:23:17.450 Yeah. 00:23:17.690 --> 00:23:19.609 So he bought several hundred acres. 00:23:19.769 --> 00:23:23.529 He keeps buying property and he's putting like different things. 00:23:23.609 --> 00:23:26.569 Like, I think he's going to do like a fishing lodge in one place. 00:23:26.730 --> 00:23:28.170 He's doing yurts. 00:23:28.490 --> 00:23:36.730 I was telling my I've been looking at property to do some like to create like an e-mountain biking retreat or something like that here in Northern California. 00:23:36.970 --> 00:23:43.769 And he was just like, I think the people that are running these businesses really well are going to make a lot of money. 00:23:44.009 --> 00:23:45.690 They're going to have a lot of time. 00:23:45.849 --> 00:23:54.809 And the last thing they're going to do is want to binge watch Netflix as entertainment, go to the movies as entertainment, like that kind of thing. 00:23:55.049 --> 00:23:59.129 It's going to be, no, I want to go fly fishing, I want to go hiking, I want to go biking. 00:23:59.450 --> 00:24:01.609 And so he's like doubling down on that stuff. 00:24:01.930 --> 00:24:02.650 Makes sense. 00:24:02.809 --> 00:24:04.809 You know, which I was like, interesting, you know. 00:24:04.890 --> 00:24:07.690 But I think, I mean, how often do you go to movies? 00:24:08.250 --> 00:24:16.009 I saw my first movie in I think a year, maybe, maybe two, maybe two years in the past month. 00:24:16.170 --> 00:24:17.690 And you want to know what it was? 00:24:18.009 --> 00:24:18.809 Odyssey. 00:24:19.369 --> 00:24:19.609 No. 00:24:20.329 --> 00:24:22.009 The Elizabeth Holmes one. 00:24:22.250 --> 00:24:22.650 Yes. 00:24:22.970 --> 00:24:23.930 Did you really? 00:24:24.650 --> 00:24:26.089 You can see everything. 00:24:26.250 --> 00:24:26.410 Yeah. 00:24:26.650 --> 00:24:27.769 I heard it's great. 00:24:28.009 --> 00:24:28.809 It was so good. 00:24:30.089 --> 00:24:36.329 I now I'll go see it because you said it, but you know, all the podcast all the podcast people have been talking about it. 00:24:36.970 --> 00:24:44.410 I mean, I so my experience with it was, and then I'll get I'll let you get to why you were asking me this question. 00:24:44.569 --> 00:24:47.529 But my experience was sitting down in the theater. 00:24:48.170 --> 00:24:53.369 One, it was kind of nice to get out of the house where you typically watch a movie and get back to the theater. 00:24:55.289 --> 00:24:58.809 Get down from your kids and had a three-hour break. 00:24:59.049 --> 00:25:01.450 And got to sit next to my wife. 00:25:01.609 --> 00:25:02.569 It was great. 00:25:03.129 --> 00:25:06.089 Sarah, as you know, is my wife, she's a therapist. 00:25:06.170 --> 00:25:12.009 And so if you know anything about this movie, like sitting

next to a therapist was very compelling and entertaining. 00:25:12.329 --> 00:25:23.609 And but yeah, I think that so anyway, my my quick, I won't spoil anything, but the first half of the movie is really entertaining and kind of but kind of slow. 00:25:23.769 --> 00:25:27.049 Like it, it's it it there's the development aspect to it. 00:25:27.369 --> 00:25:32.569 In the second half of the of the movie, so like it's three hours, it's a three-hour documentary. 00:25:32.650 --> 00:25:32.809 Yeah. 00:25:32.970 --> 00:25:38.009 First half, like you're you're in it, you're inner, you're you know, things are developing, but you're entertained. 00:25:38.250 --> 00:25:41.930 The second half of the movie, I'm on my the edge of my seat in a documentary. 00:25:42.329 --> 00:25:43.930 I'm like leaning in. 00:25:44.170 --> 00:25:48.890 Everyone is like the movie, like the theater is, you know, like it's a raucous environment. 00:25:48.970 --> 00:25:50.009 So it was actually kind of cool. 00:25:50.089 --> 00:25:54.730 I mean, a little bit to what you're speaking, speaking of, it was experiential. 00:25:54.970 --> 00:25:58.410 And you know, you go to an average movie today, you're not gonna get that sort of experience. 00:25:58.490 --> 00:25:59.049 It was cool. 00:25:59.369 --> 00:26:03.609 Yeah, the the reason I bring it up, I'm probably good for like one movie a year, right? 00:26:03.930 --> 00:26:04.809 Odyssey. 00:26:05.289 --> 00:26:16.650 I think last year I saw F1 in the theater, and it's usually optimized around like screen size, and then I mean, honestly, most like F1 element by myself, right? 00:26:16.730 --> 00:26:20.970 It's literally, I mean, I'm I'm perfectly fine going to a movie by myself. 00:26:21.210 --> 00:26:30.089 Sometimes when I travel, like I'm like, I can go back to the hotel room and jam on emails or whatever, or or go out to dinner and do whatever, right? 00:26:30.329 --> 00:26:32.170 Or just go to a movie, right? 00:26:32.730 --> 00:26:40.009 And my point about movies is I think unlike what your experience was, I think I don't think that they're like spending time with people, right? 00:26:40.089 --> 00:26:44.170 I think it is like you go and you sit in front of a screen together. 00:26:44.730 --> 00:26:51.049 So I do think there is room for people wanting to do stuff together, right? 00:26:51.210 --> 00:26:57.049 Whether it's pickleball or Paddell or hiking or whatever. 00:26:57.210 --> 00:27:10.650 And I think I told you, like I started playing golf again, not because I'm any good, but when you have 26-year-old and 24-year-old grown children, get them hooked on golf and you get to go spend four to six hours with them. 00:27:10.809 --> 00:27:13.690 You know, like that that's all you're really optimizing for. 00:27:13.930 --> 00:27:24.809 So I do think there's gonna be, I mean, I think it's interesting, you know, if you look at streaming, you know, Netflix had a terrible quarter, right? 00:27:24.970 --> 00:27:41.369 If you look at what's what's wrong at Netflix, what may or may not be wrong with the Paramount deal, you know, like this idea of like we we post-pandemic, during pandemic streaming was up, post-pandemic, oh streaming, streaming. 00:27:41.609 --> 00:27:48.410 So you have to ask yourself like how much of this streaming are people gonna keep doing, and I it could be a downward trend. 00:27:48.569 --> 00:27:53.529 I mean, that paramount deal is wild in terms of how levered it was. 00:27:53.690 --> 00:28:03.849 And I think Elon Musk came in and gave him some money to knock down some of their debt, but it was a highly leveraged deal that they have no choice but to grow or die, right? 00:28:03.930 --> 00:28:05.769 That's grow or die, basically. 00:28:06.009 --> 00:28:13.849 But no, I I do think it's all about you know, these spending time with people and mostly outside. 00:28:14.170 --> 00:28:36.809 Yeah, I mean, I think one one thing that's gonna reinforce that thesis is anyone that's anyone that's doing real cognitive work in the next two decades, the actually the experience of sitting in front of the computer and interacting with models is gonna be I at least in my opinion, it's gonna be pretty cognitively demanding. 00:28:37.049 --> 00:28:57.289 Like the the old model of sitting with your craft and having like a leisurely experience while you create and do hard things, but like you know, the old model, I'm just thinking of like you're drafting, you know, you're drafting plans or you're reviewing specs, flipping blueprints, that that those days are over. 00:28:57.450 --> 00:29:06.250 Like the the game now is managing managing massive amounts of of work and moving through it quickly, right? 00:29:06.329 --> 00:29:19.289 So it's like it's more of a management exercise when you're interacting with AI, which is what everyone's gonna be be doing, than it is, you know, like thinking deeply and and performing like crap, you know, craft-like work. 00:29:19.369 --> 00:29:23.369 And I think a lot of our industry, for what it's worth, I think we're familiar with that old model. 00:29:24.809 --> 00:29:38.809 Do you do you think though, like there's been a lot of studies and stuff coming out that kind of you know, to sum it up, AI is making it dumber, which I would say I don't think it's making us necessarily dumber. 00:29:39.049 --> 00:29:42.650 I think like most things, it's how do you use it, right? 00:29:43.210 --> 00:29:47.210 I feel like I use AI to be more, I don't think it's like smart and dumb. 00:29:47.289 --> 00:29:50.650 I think it's knowledgeable or less informed, right? 00:29:50.890 --> 00:29:55.849 I think I use AI because I'm in a like I have to look up everything, I have to know about everything. 00:29:56.089 --> 00:29:59.369 Someone says string theory, I gotta like, I need to understand screen theory, you know. 00:29:59.450 --> 00:30:03.369 Claude explained it to me like I'm a two-year-old, like you know, whatever, right? 00:30:04.170 --> 00:30:06.009 But

that's my own insanity. 00:30:06.170 --> 00:30:20.890 But I think a lot of people, just like they said with search engines or they said with spell check, you know, people are gonna forget how to spell, which has kind of happened because I see people type things without even caring, like how it's spelled, knowing that it'll get corrected. 00:30:21.129 --> 00:30:33.049 But you know, there's there's this notion, and there's been a lot of stuff published about it saying that like people are actually gonna get less and less knowledgeable about things, which I don't know. 00:30:33.210 --> 00:30:42.809 They said that about YouTube, you know, they said that about the millennials, like, oh, YouTube's making them dumber because they just look everything up and they don't actually know how to change their tire. 00:30:42.890 --> 00:30:47.369 It's not important that they know and retain that because they'll just look it up on YouTube. 00:30:47.690 --> 00:30:48.009 Yeah. 00:30:48.410 --> 00:30:55.529 Reminds me of the the discourse around the fear of people not reading things anymore. 00:30:56.170 --> 00:31:01.930 I mean, there's already documented studies that people are just generally reading fewer and fewer books every year. 00:31:02.089 --> 00:31:06.410 And I think there's a real question is that a is it a bad thing? 00:31:07.369 --> 00:31:23.529 I think as long as you know we're consuming mediums that are helping us use our brains and we're not like completely shutting off our, you know, our our proactive, you know, high agency selves, I think it's okay. 00:31:23.690 --> 00:31:27.129 Like it like is it okay to watch a YouTube video instead of read a book? 00:31:27.210 --> 00:31:28.170 I think that's okay. 00:31:28.410 --> 00:31:28.730 Yeah. 00:31:29.049 --> 00:31:32.569 I think they're just different, you know, ways to consume information. 00:31:32.809 --> 00:31:40.890 I I mean, I do think though that there is like I I think the most immersive learning experience is reading. 00:31:41.129 --> 00:31:50.890 So if you actually want to like sit down and understand something deeply to just be consumed by text and have to really like sit with it and think through it, it's not the most efficient. 00:31:51.049 --> 00:31:58.730 Like it takes, I think it takes longer, but you might understand and comprehend the subject better if you actually sit with it and you're not doing anything else. 00:31:58.890 --> 00:32:06.650 You know, when you're consuming an interactive video, it I think it's just it's less it's it sticks with you less. 00:32:06.809 --> 00:32:07.210 Yeah. 00:32:07.529 --> 00:32:11.849 I so I think, you know, when I was younger, I was not a reader. 00:32:12.170 --> 00:32:18.329 I still don't read I don't read any fiction, which I have been told is I should read some fiction, right? 00:32:18.410 --> 00:32:20.490 Like I get recommended these things. 00:32:20.809 --> 00:32:23.930 But early in my career, I didn't read at all. 00:32:24.329 --> 00:32:31.450 And

I would say I learned in an even slower way than what you're talking about, was I'd go talk to people. 00:32:31.769 --> 00:32:32.089 Yeah. 00:32:32.329 --> 00:32:33.450 That was my way of learning. 00:32:33.609 --> 00:32:35.049 Like, I don't want to read a book. 00:32:35.289 --> 00:32:42.089 If I want to learn about finance, I'm gonna go BS with a friend of mine and go have drinks for two or three hours and ask them lots of questions, right? 00:32:42.170 --> 00:32:46.410 Like that was kind of my method, which is very, it's very time consuming in a way. 00:32:46.970 --> 00:32:52.170 But but I do think like if the point is learning, right? 00:32:52.329 --> 00:32:53.210 That's the point. 00:32:53.529 --> 00:33:06.650 You know, the point is learning, and I think everybody's gonna have you know, because one would argue too, you know, I have friends who have kids that are dyslexic and they say they read while having the audible book in their ears. 00:33:06.890 --> 00:33:13.609 Wow, and that helps them like read better if they're like listening to the book while reading the book, stuff like that. 00:33:13.930 --> 00:33:21.690 So, I mean, I think in a world of like everybody gets an opportunity to learn stuff based on how they best observe. 00:33:22.970 --> 00:33:33.609 So, um the the man and machine construct, you know, I was at the Formula One race this weekend, and I can't help myself. 00:33:33.690 --> 00:33:49.690 I wrote about this on LinkedIn, and I wrote a Substack post about like the Formula One race because you know I have to observe things and I wish I had better hobbies, but my hobbies, like building companies, like that's that's Red Dude, that's how I think about things. 00:33:50.009 --> 00:34:01.529 And the thing that was interesting at the Formula One race to me is you have all these people, it's a team, but in the middle of that is a machine. 00:34:03.369 --> 00:34:07.930 And if the machine's not right, it doesn't matter how good a team you are, right? 00:34:08.570 --> 00:34:17.130 And and so I started drawing the analogy of an F1 car to like AI, right? 00:34:17.610 --> 00:34:32.170 Because it is a machine, we all can tune it however we want to tune it to get the most out of it, but ultimately it's the people around the machine that have to be that have to perform and operate as a team. 00:34:32.570 --> 00:34:36.650 And so I kind of drew to that analogy because you know, you you can have the best team in the world. 00:34:36.730 --> 00:34:43.610 If you have a crappy engineered car, which by the way was engineered by humans, you're not gonna win. 00:34:44.330 --> 00:34:50.010 And I think it's interesting because in many ways, F1 is like all racing sports, right? 00:34:50.090 --> 00:35:01.370 It's one of the few sports where it's a team sport, but heavily dependent on a machine in the middle, right? 00:35:01.770 --> 00:35:06.410 Yeah, tennis, maybe you have state-of-the-art tennis rackets, like there's that kind of stuff, right? 00:35:06.490

--> 00:35:08.170 But not it's it's not as important. 00:35:08.810 --> 00:35:20.250 But but you know, even the tennis the for the tennis analogy, for instance, you're relying on a on a manufacturer to produce that product, it's not your team that's building the racket, right? 00:35:20.730 --> 00:35:21.370 Right. 00:35:22.330 --> 00:35:23.130 So I don't know. 00:35:23.210 --> 00:35:33.210 I I went deep on this idea though, like it's the one sport, it's the one team sport where like the machine matters, right? 00:35:33.290 --> 00:35:38.650 So if we look at that responsible for the production of that machine, I guess, yeah. 00:35:39.130 --> 00:35:49.850 So if you look at in a world of AI and an enterprise organization trying to run teams, you know, you tune, you train, you do all these things with these models. 00:35:50.810 --> 00:35:57.210 And ultimately, if if the model is horrible, it doesn't matter how good of a team you have, it's not gonna matter, right? 00:35:57.290 --> 00:35:58.570 You're still not gonna win. 00:35:58.730 --> 00:36:02.250 So anyway, I th I thought it was like it was just one of those observational things. 00:36:02.730 --> 00:36:04.330 The way that you're framing this is interesting. 00:36:04.570 --> 00:36:13.690 So you're saying you're the way you're framing it is if your car is if the engineering of your car is bad, you don't stand a chance. 00:36:13.850 --> 00:36:18.490 So how do you like relating this back to to company building? 00:36:19.290 --> 00:36:25.130 I think the the car comment is is is is fairly obvious. 00:36:25.290 --> 00:36:27.130 If you have the worst car, you're not gonna win. 00:36:27.370 --> 00:36:28.010 Right. 00:36:28.730 --> 00:36:42.730 But how does the like what's your interpretation of how the team matters in both you know determining the the yeah, like ensuring efficacy of the of the of the product and then and then what matters assuming the product is good. 00:36:43.050 --> 00:36:45.450 I think I think your team has to have know-how, right? 00:36:45.530 --> 00:36:46.810 They have to know have know-how. 00:36:46.890 --> 00:36:50.490 They have to be able to have software engineering know-how. 00:36:50.650 --> 00:36:53.930 There has to be domain expertise know-how. 00:36:54.010 --> 00:37:02.330 I mean, I think it's pretty interesting, you know, for me, I feel like I have a world-class engineering team. 00:37:02.410 --> 00:37:14.010 I mean, I got off a call the other day with a client, and I told Barry, I was like, I sent him a Slack, and I was like, I hate to freak you out, but the engineering team is making me feel invincible. 00:37:14.250 --> 00:37:17.530 And when I feel invincible, I can go sell anyone. 00:37:18.090 --> 00:37:21.050 You know, and I was like, get ready, you know. 00:37:21.370 --> 00:37:34.330 And I think in the world of AI and what people are doing is you know, you have some startups that don't have, they're not, they don't have the domain expertise to build the to build a system, to build the car. 00:37:34.570 --> 00:37:37.770 They maybe don't have the technical expertise to build the car. 00:37:37.850 --> 00:37:58.170 I mean, I think we're seeing, you know, not to pick on YC, it's easy to pick on YC, but like YC, you know, that you have a 22-year-old founder that's maybe really good at coding and understands how to tune the car, but's never driven it around the lap, like had around the track, has no domain expertise. 00:37:58.410 --> 00:38:04.570 And they're like, I mean, I had one the other day that, like, hey, I'm doing quantity takeoffs for construction. 00:38:05.690 --> 00:38:07.690 And I said, like, why? 00:38:08.730 --> 00:38:10.010 Like, what's been your experience? 00:38:10.090 --> 00:38:18.890 He's like, Oh, I have no experience, and I I find I kind of feel like maybe there's something in the LLMs that you know, I'm applying to YC. 00:38:19.130 --> 00:38:21.930 What's a good business for me to pitch to get in? 00:38:22.170 --> 00:38:24.890 And like boring businesses like construction. 00:38:25.210 --> 00:38:30.170 Great, write me a business, write me my application for like I feel like there's some weird thing happening. 00:38:30.250 --> 00:38:39.130 There's way too many YC companies focused on the construction space with no connectivity whatsoever to construction. 00:38:39.210 --> 00:38:41.210 And and I don't think that's like a mistake. 00:38:41.370 --> 00:38:45.850 There's like something happening that people have decided that. 00:38:45.930 --> 00:38:56.570 So I think, but the same token, I see people with tons of industry experience that think they can vibe code, they don't need to hire, they don't have a respect for software engineering. 00:38:56.730 --> 00:39:09.290 Like, if you're gonna build something hard, you need people that know how to build hard things, and then they vibe code something together because they have all this domain expertise, and then you're like, well, that's not that's not that great either. 00:39:10.330 --> 00:39:20.090 And so I think it is about like having the engineering team to design the car and maintain the car and tweak the car over time, right? 00:39:20.250 --> 00:39:24.490 The the setup at the beginning of a season is not the setup at the end of the season, yeah. 00:39:24.730 --> 00:39:28.170 And then you have to operate as one, you have to operate as one. 00:39:29.370 --> 00:39:30.410 Yeah, very interesting. 00:39:30.650 --> 00:39:44.890 I think I mean one thing about this current time, if you look at that analogy and think about it from the perspective of five to ten years ago, and then look at the same scenario today. 00:39:45.450 --> 00:39:57.370 I mean, my my analysis is today, it's a lot easier to build the car because you have a lot of expertise around you via and free intelligence, right? 00:39:57.690 --> 00:40:02.250 Now, you still have to have the operational know-how, you still have to put the car put the car together. 00:40:02.330 --> 00:40:03.530 Like that's a

real thing. 00:40:03.770 --> 00:40:08.570 But but you know, you look five to ten years ago, like you didn't have any of that intelligence. 00:40:09.210 --> 00:40:16.570 You had to have the people that deeply, deeply understood this, you know, the the science and the engineering of everything, because that wasn't just a bunda. 00:40:16.890 --> 00:40:20.490 But what I'll say is it's become easier to build a car. 00:40:21.690 --> 00:40:25.530 To build a championship car, not so easy. 00:40:26.410 --> 00:40:28.250 Still takes lots of engineering, right? 00:40:28.410 --> 00:40:33.050 Still takes takes world-class engineering to b to build a world champion team. 00:40:33.290 --> 00:40:37.530 And I think what's become easier is like it's easier to build a car, right? 00:40:39.210 --> 00:40:40.010 Maybe not. 00:40:40.810 --> 00:40:51.770 How do you think about that analogy related to build if you extend it to completing a commercial building versus a versus a car? 00:40:51.850 --> 00:40:53.850 So like relate it back to the industry a bit. 00:40:54.090 --> 00:40:58.090 Do you think it's yeah, do you think that analogy is apt? 00:40:58.250 --> 00:41:00.490 Like is it like the the championship car analogy? 00:41:00.570 --> 00:41:02.810 It's it's again it's harder to build a championship car. 00:41:02.890 --> 00:41:06.650 Is it harder to build a you know, top five percent building? 00:41:07.690 --> 00:41:21.130 I think it's very hard to design and build a building that outperforms, outperforms aesthetically, energy efficient, less waste, all those things. 00:41:21.290 --> 00:41:38.490 I think what happens, you know, there's there's a reason why like let's say mainstream architects like to make fun of the starchite, like, oh, I mean, they're gonna, but you know, in a world of like which architect do you want to design your, you know, I've been focused on designing my forever house, right? 00:41:39.370 --> 00:41:46.730 And do you want like a someone that's doing generic steel office buildings? 00:41:46.970 --> 00:41:49.930 Or do yeah, or do I want Norm Foster to design my house? 00:41:50.090 --> 00:41:53.450 If I could have it, I would have Foster design my house, right? 00:41:53.690 --> 00:42:11.290 And so I think the the give and take is the feeling is if you take a world-class architect, you might you'll get something very unique, but then building it is very hard, maintaining it like they're not thinking about energy costs and things like that, possibly, right? 00:42:11.690 --> 00:42:32.170 And so I think the where this starts to come together, can you have an award-winning designed building, an award-winning energy performance building, and one that's not as expensive, that's not significantly more expensive than the other building, right? 00:42:32.250 --> 00:42:34.650 You know, if you look per square foot, right? 00:42:34.730 --> 00:42:38.490 So if you put all those things together, are we in a spot now where we can get there? 00:42:38.650 --> 00:42:42.330 I think if people try, you could right. 00:42:42.490 --> 00:42:48.970 I mean, in a way, like design isn't design is so cheap relatively to the cost of building, right? 00:42:49.450 --> 00:42:55.130 It's just that a lot of times when you try to get too creative about design, it's hard to build, it's hard to maintain. 00:42:55.290 --> 00:42:55.610 Yeah. 00:42:57.290 --> 00:42:57.930 Yeah. 00:42:59.690 --> 00:43:01.930 Do you think that those last two pieces? 00:43:02.090 --> 00:43:21.130 So, like you mentioned what's getting harder about building a great building is is also is it's considering the performance and the energy attributes of the building and generally how it maintains over the long the long term. 00:43:21.370 --> 00:43:28.170 Is that do you is your view that that's a new phenomenon that we're like just so important to do that? 00:43:29.050 --> 00:43:31.290 It's pretty funny where we went down this road. 00:43:31.530 --> 00:43:35.930 Um because I was talking to someone this week. 00:43:36.170 --> 00:43:46.730 So back in the day of when a Mar group was designing a building, when they were getting Burj Khalifa and all this stuff in Dubai built, I was involved with a lot of that back then. 00:43:47.690 --> 00:44:05.530 And my initial like reaction seeing how these buildings were getting designed and built was oh my gosh, these things, the growth industry will be maintaining and like maintenance of these buildings because they're not there's not a lot of thoughtfulness being put into design. 00:44:05.770 --> 00:44:09.530 There's being no thoughtfulness is being put into maintaining them. 00:44:09.850 --> 00:44:15.850 So I was telling someone this this story, and I was like, God knows how much it's costing to maintain those assets. 00:44:16.250 --> 00:44:17.610 Sets now, right? 00:44:18.330 --> 00:44:21.690 And I was like, what do you think is gonna happen with these data centers? 00:44:22.330 --> 00:44:31.690 I'm like, the growth business in three to five years will be maintaining these data centers because I guarantee you it's going too fast. 00:44:32.170 --> 00:44:34.490 They're not being designed with everything in mind. 00:44:34.570 --> 00:44:36.810 They're God knows how they're being built. 00:44:37.050 --> 00:44:41.290 And you have a user that doesn't care about energy costs. 00:44:42.170 --> 00:44:44.650 But what happens when you have to care about energy costs? 00:44:44.890 --> 00:44:47.210 Yeah, for them to pencil the energy costs, have to make sense. 00:44:47.690 --> 00:44:47.850 Right. 00:44:48.010 --> 00:44:51.050 Five years from now, eight years from now, whatever it is, right? 00:44:51.690 --> 00:44:54.250 And so I to me I saw that same parallel. 00:44:54.570 --> 00:44:58.410 Like, you do absolutely have, I mean, it's like any asset, right? 00:45:00.490 --> 00:45:04.090 You have to think about the total cost of ownership. 00:45:04.730 --> 00:45:06.730 That's just math, right? 00:45:06.970 --> 00:45:13.130 Yeah,

and I don't think any, just like back during Burge Khalifa and all that stuff, no one was thinking about total cost of ownership. 00:45:13.290 --> 00:45:18.810 They were just worried like, can I put another little antenna to be two feet taller than the guy next to me? 00:45:18.970 --> 00:45:20.570 That's all they were optimizing for. 00:45:20.810 --> 00:45:31.530 In fact, I worked on one project, the antenna, it was telescoping because they didn't want to disclose how tall it was, so the guy next to them couldn't build one taller than that. 00:45:31.610 --> 00:45:34.330 Like that, this is what the people were optimizing for, right? 00:45:34.970 --> 00:45:36.890 Because I want to be the tallest. 00:45:38.010 --> 00:45:43.290 So now, if you look at data centers, these things get old. 00:45:43.530 --> 00:45:48.170 By the way, they buildings get old really quickly. 00:45:49.130 --> 00:45:56.890 You know, I once again getting back to form so Formula One at Coda, they built out this like little amusement park called Coda Land, right? 00:45:57.210 --> 00:45:59.690 And I walked in, I was like, God, this is really nice. 00:45:59.770 --> 00:46:00.970 Like, it was like really nice. 00:46:01.050 --> 00:46:02.490 I was like, this place is really nice. 00:46:02.570 --> 00:46:04.810 And someone's like, Yeah, it's been open for two months. 00:46:04.890 --> 00:46:06.970 I'm like, oh, that explains everything. 00:46:08.410 --> 00:46:08.730 Right? 00:46:09.050 --> 00:46:10.970 Have you been to Six Flags lately? 00:46:11.210 --> 00:46:12.090 You know what I mean? 00:46:12.250 --> 00:46:15.210 Like, I mean, look at Disney. 00:46:15.450 --> 00:46:18.250 How many people do they have maintaining that place? 00:46:18.490 --> 00:46:18.890 Yeah. 00:46:19.130 --> 00:46:20.010 Like everywhere. 00:46:20.090 --> 00:46:24.250 They pop up, they pop up out of bushes, you know, kind of thing. 00:46:24.490 --> 00:46:24.730 Yeah. 00:46:24.890 --> 00:46:28.170 And so it's not cheap to maintain and manage an asset. 00:46:28.330 --> 00:46:37.930 And so it'll be really interesting to see someone's gonna take over a data center and go, oh, we're gonna have to redesign this. 00:46:38.170 --> 00:46:38.570 Yeah. 00:46:38.810 --> 00:46:40.490 I think there's gonna be a lot of that. 00:46:40.890 --> 00:46:57.690 I mean, I think that's what to me, that's where the game of engineering has really changed in our space is that that game of optimization related to maintenance and energy and you know, durability of the of the of the building. 00:46:57.850 --> 00:47:02.810 I think like that's yeah, to me, that's where you stand out from an engineering perspective. 00:47:02.890 --> 00:47:05.130 That's how you get a top to top one percent. 00:47:05.290 --> 00:47:11.210 So like when I think of competing F1 teams, like that's what engineering teams are competing, you know, against each other to to do. 00:47:11.290 --> 00:47:16.810 It's like optimizing the the the total cost via energy performance. 00:47:16.970 --> 00:47:17.450 Yeah. 00:47:17.850 --> 00:47:18.090 Yeah. 00:47:18.170 --> 00:47:24.010 And by the way, like you can you can build the fastest car on the track, it might only last four laps. 00:47:25.290 --> 00:47:25.930 Right. 00:47:26.730 --> 00:47:28.970 Like that, the those are the types of things. 00:47:29.050 --> 00:47:33.290 I mean, I mean, that's like to me, like that's the beauty of engineering, right? 00:47:33.530 --> 00:47:44.170 Yeah, performance, durability, you know, all those things matter, and you're constantly battling to optimize that. 00:47:44.490 --> 00:47:45.610 Yeah, yeah. 00:47:46.250 --> 00:47:49.850 I just don't think there's a lot of engineering going on with these data centers, man. 00:47:50.010 --> 00:47:51.850 I just throwing them together. 00:47:52.170 --> 00:47:52.570 Yep. 00:47:52.810 --> 00:47:54.090 Very temporary feeling. 00:47:54.250 --> 00:47:54.410 Yeah. 00:47:54.490 --> 00:48:01.210 I mean, how many of these hyperscalers are going to their mechanical engineers and saying, you know, I'm really worried about the energy consumption? 00:48:01.530 --> 00:48:02.170 Yeah. 00:48:02.410 --> 00:48:03.290 Like none. 00:48:03.450 --> 00:48:04.410 It's none at all. 00:48:04.650 --> 00:48:08.650 It's it's purely, yeah, is this and is this land energized? 00:48:08.730 --> 00:48:11.290 Can I get energy to this property? 00:48:11.370 --> 00:48:17.130 I'm not worried about the yeah, optimizing the we've been working on some stadium projects. 00:48:17.210 --> 00:48:23.930 And I was talking to an architect about it, and they're like, Yeah, like these billionaires are the worst. 00:48:24.330 --> 00:48:27.370 Because most sports teams are owned by billionaires, right? 00:48:27.930 --> 00:48:35.850 And they were talking about like they have all the money in the world, and they are surrounded by people, lots of yes men. 00:48:37.050 --> 00:48:41.370 And so they just start deciding, like, they decide they that they're architects, right? 00:48:41.450 --> 00:48:47.530 They've studied enough architecture books and have seen enough architecture, they have a say in what they want to do. 00:48:47.610 --> 00:48:50.570 Like, I'm a billionaire, I'm building this great stadium. 00:48:50.970 --> 00:48:58.490 And they said the biggest challenge is at least with other clients, if they say, Hey, what about this? 00:48:58.570 --> 00:49:00.490 You're like, Well, we can't afford that. 00:49:00.570 --> 00:49:01.930 Like, we can't do that. 00:49:02.170 --> 00:49:08.010 You know, money's always a challenge, but these billionaires are like, Yeah, so what? 00:49:08.730 --> 00:49:10.570 I want a roof that retracts. 00:49:10.970 --> 00:49:11.930 Yeah, why? 00:49:12.250 --> 00:49:15.530 Yeah, no reason, right? 00:49:15.770 --> 00:49:17.050 Like, no reason. 00:49:17.130 --> 00:49:18.010 I just want one. 00:49:19.610 --> 00:49:22.810 Actually, segue to sports, brewers win the world series. 00:49:24.090 --> 00:49:28.170 Yeah, one of the cheapest

rosters in baseball. 00:49:28.650 --> 00:49:30.490 Yeah, moneyball dynamic. 00:49:30.730 --> 00:49:32.490 Yeah, yeah. 00:49:33.290 --> 00:49:35.050 Yeah, they kind of crushed 4-1. 00:49:35.450 --> 00:49:36.010 Crazy. 00:49:36.330 --> 00:49:36.970 Yeah. 00:49:38.170 --> 00:49:41.050 I was talking to a friend of mine that's a big Brewers fan. 00:49:41.370 --> 00:49:46.170 He was flying down to Florida to go to games because he couldn't afford to see them in Milwaukee during the playoff. 00:49:46.650 --> 00:49:46.970 Wow. 00:49:47.210 --> 00:49:49.450 Because there was so much demand for Milwaukee tickets. 00:49:49.850 --> 00:49:52.730 He said 8,000 bucks if he wanted something decent. 00:49:53.050 --> 00:49:53.530 Yeah. 00:49:53.850 --> 00:49:54.410 Nuts. 00:49:54.650 --> 00:49:54.810 Yeah. 00:49:57.450 --> 00:49:59.050 It's like cheaper to fly to Florida. 00:49:59.450 --> 00:49:59.930 Cheaper. 00:50:00.330 --> 00:50:00.890 Nuts. 00:50:01.530 --> 00:50:02.010 Crazy. 00:50:02.170 --> 00:50:05.210 That's neat that their fan, their fanhood is that engaged. 00:50:05.290 --> 00:50:06.650 That's it's the first time ever. 00:50:06.890 --> 00:50:07.770 First time ever. 00:50:08.010 --> 00:50:08.650 Yeah. 00:50:09.370 --> 00:50:10.010 You know. 00:50:11.370 --> 00:50:12.010 Yeah. 00:50:13.370 --> 00:50:22.650 Any uh any parting thoughts that yeah, uh reflection from your last couple months? 00:50:22.970 --> 00:50:30.890 Yeah, I think I think our industry has a lot, a long way to go to figure things out. 00:50:33.130 --> 00:50:37.130 I feel like too many lead too much of leadership's just not asking the right questions, right? 00:50:37.210 --> 00:50:38.490 They're just not asking the right questions. 00:50:38.570 --> 00:50:41.290 Forget about the answers, they're not asking the right questions. 00:50:41.770 --> 00:50:52.490 I also think, you know, I'm I'm a big fan of like you follow the capital flows, where's capital moving, that kind of thing. 00:50:52.650 --> 00:50:54.410 I think we're gonna see some bumpiness. 00:50:54.490 --> 00:51:01.850 I mean, today, what is it, Friday, whatever 30th, the market got slammed today. 00:51:02.410 --> 00:51:05.210 But I think you have to start thinking about capital flows. 00:51:05.290 --> 00:51:10.170 I was talking to a very large PE firm that backslaw these hyperscalers. 00:51:10.410 --> 00:51:24.170 And their whole point is like, yeah, we're having a harder time attracting capital because as interest rates move, the the bogey for risk-free capital, risk-free returns is higher. 00:51:24.330 --> 00:51:26.810 So why am I getting when I'm getting zero percent? 00:51:26.890 --> 00:51:30.410 Yeah, sure, I'll find a bunch of data centers because it's better than zero. 00:51:30.730 --> 00:51:44.010 And when you start seeing some theories around like inflation rates versus what you can get in treasuries, some people are saying maybe I don't need to be all in on some of these projects. 00:51:44.250 --> 00:51:45.210 Yeah, yeah.

00:51:45.850 --> 00:51:51.690 But I think the capital flows are gonna be a little bit choppy, I think for the next year, honestly. 00:51:51.930 --> 00:51:52.970 I think for the next year. 00:51:53.370 --> 00:51:59.690 Just gonna ask, I was curious if you have you think this is a minor pullback or if you think this is actually gonna last for a bit. 00:51:59.930 --> 00:52:02.170 I think it's just gonna be choppy for a bit. 00:52:02.410 --> 00:52:07.850 You know, back in, you know, I I'm fortunate I don't manage any of my stuff. 00:52:08.010 --> 00:52:12.890 So when the stock market goes up and down, like I actually don't even have a login, I got rid of my login. 00:52:13.450 --> 00:52:16.330 I'm like, I I kind of get the paper statements. 00:52:17.130 --> 00:52:18.250 It's healthy. 00:52:18.570 --> 00:52:21.290 It's healthy just to get the paper statements, you know. 00:52:21.930 --> 00:52:25.930 One, they're not there all the time and you forget about them and whatever. 00:52:26.090 --> 00:52:32.490 But I do think if you're someone that likes to watch the market every minute of your life, I think you're gonna need some Prozac. 00:52:33.050 --> 00:52:49.690 But I I think it's just gonna be I and I I think it's just gonna be choppy because capital flows, I think you're gonna, you know, we we forget like the the biggest, you know, like if you look at retail investors now, it's quite amazing how much of the market is retail investors, right? 00:52:49.770 --> 00:52:52.970 We used to always believe, I mean, the hedgies run everything, right? 00:52:53.050 --> 00:52:58.010 We're just along for the ride, but retail investors are just so strong now. 00:52:58.170 --> 00:53:06.410 Yeah, and on the first of the 15th, you know, 401ks get funded and the SP gets funded, right? 00:53:06.490 --> 00:53:07.690 The capital flows. 00:53:08.570 --> 00:53:18.170 And and I even think that a lot of people, if you got fired and you got a new job with a 10% pay cut, I think people still max out their 401k. 00:53:18.250 --> 00:53:20.650 I don't think they say, oh, I'm making 10% less. 00:53:20.730 --> 00:53:23.130 I can't afford to put in my 401k. 00:53:23.610 --> 00:53:26.330 I think it's kind of automatic, automatic these days. 00:53:26.570 --> 00:53:40.170 And so I think until we start to see unemployment type stuff where there's just not the first and the 15th flows of 401ks, I think I think it's just good, I think I think there's just too many things out there to make things kind of, it's just could be choppy. 00:53:40.410 --> 00:53:40.970 Yeah, yeah. 00:53:41.210 --> 00:53:44.410 We're still very bullish on like just the world, right? 00:53:44.650 --> 00:53:49.210 What we're doing as a country where technology is going, all those things, right? 00:53:50.810 --> 00:53:54.890 But I just think you know, it'll be a little choppy. 00:53:54.970 --> 00:53:56.570 So just don't pay attention. 00:54:01.530 --> 00:54:04.570 Or short-term failure of the anthropic IPO. 00:54:04.650

--> 00:54:05.850 You think it'll be well received? 00:54:06.010 --> 00:54:08.890 You think it's gonna trade into a lot of fear? 00:54:09.210 --> 00:54:10.570 I think it's gonna do well. 00:54:10.810 --> 00:54:12.090 You go here's why. 00:54:12.250 --> 00:54:14.570 Like, did you see how much cash they have? 00:54:14.970 --> 00:54:15.370 Mm-hmm. 00:54:15.770 --> 00:54:17.450 120 billion. 00:54:19.770 --> 00:54:21.050 Okay, right. 00:54:21.130 --> 00:54:31.610 Like, so I think in the world of like fears, I mean, here's where I think like if you look at the anthropics, if you look at NVIDIA, these guys that have lots and lots of cash. 00:54:31.770 --> 00:54:35.370 I mean, NVIDIA is gonna end up bailing out some of these hyperscalers. 00:54:35.690 --> 00:54:44.170 Any of them that have any kind of levered debt, they're gonna come in and buy, you know, buy out their debt and and recap them, probably. 00:54:44.250 --> 00:54:45.610 I mean, they just have too much money. 00:54:45.850 --> 00:55:02.250 So I think there's one thing with the anthropic thing is you know, they have revenue growth, they have customer demand, like they have all the things happening, and they just have a lot of cash on the balance sheet, which means they can buy stuff. 00:55:02.410 --> 00:55:08.250 You know, they're mostly renters of data centers, they don't actually own many data centers, they're tenants, right? 00:55:08.730 --> 00:55:20.490 But tomorrow, if they say, hey, like we should buy Goldman Sachs and own AI in the in financial services, they can kind of buy. 00:55:20.730 --> 00:55:25.450 I mean, I think that's what starts to get in the stream is when you have that much cash on the balance sheet. 00:55:25.690 --> 00:55:31.050 I mean, it's it's not gonna be hiring more engineers, I don't think. 00:55:31.210 --> 00:55:31.690 Like, why? 00:55:31.850 --> 00:55:40.730 Like, I mean, I think that's the thing is like the flywheel of software engineering around these models, it's not, oh, we need to double the staff to make it twice as good. 00:55:40.970 --> 00:55:42.730 Yeah, it's not what's happening. 00:55:42.810 --> 00:55:44.650 So, what do they do with all that cash? 00:55:44.890 --> 00:55:48.490 Buy IBM, buy Microsoft? 00:55:49.370 --> 00:55:51.210 They're gonna spend it, cluster. 00:55:51.850 --> 00:55:53.130 I mean, maybe. 00:55:53.690 --> 00:55:55.370 I mean, they're gonna spend it for sure. 00:55:55.530 --> 00:56:00.250 I mean, it's just a matter of yeah, where what what's their what's their cup of tea in the short term? 00:56:00.410 --> 00:56:03.930 I mean, if I was them, I would just like build competitors. 00:56:04.250 --> 00:56:12.010 I mean, I was listening to on the software stack, like I'd go build like the Pro Core competitor and short the shit out of Procore. 00:56:13.130 --> 00:56:15.610 Like, watch the I mean, think about all this. 00:56:15.690 --> 00:56:20.570 I mean, I haven't opened up Excel, PowerPoint, or Word in six months. 00:56:22.250 --> 00:56:27.850

I mean, the only reason I don't get rid of it is for some weird, like, oh, don't I need my Microsoft suite? 00:56:28.410 --> 00:56:28.890 I don't know. 00:56:29.450 --> 00:56:30.730 Yeah, self-assurance. 00:56:30.970 --> 00:56:42.330 Yeah, I mean, I'm not sure why I need it, but I I mean so anyway, I think the anthropic IPO, I mean I think it's a it's a good business. 00:56:42.890 --> 00:56:45.610 It's a good business, and they have a ton of cash. 00:56:45.930 --> 00:56:50.250 You have a good business with a lot of cash, like you kind of have to screw it up, right? 00:56:50.730 --> 00:56:55.130 All signs and point towards in the short term that they're gonna do really well. 00:56:55.290 --> 00:57:07.930 I think the I think the IPO itself might be rocky for a bit, but all IPOs, you know, to some extent are, I think that, but yeah, the next couple years, like you're gonna print, they're gonna print money. 00:57:08.170 --> 00:57:15.290 Yeah, I mean it's they're always choppy because the bankers I wish I wish people would do more direct listings, quite honestly. 00:57:15.850 --> 00:57:27.770 Because the bankers go and make a market and they do all the things that they do very well, and so it kept it'll probably get priced somewhere aggressively, right? 00:57:29.050 --> 00:57:37.690 Yep, and and so it gets choppy because you know, then it they price it aggressively, it goes to market, and then everybody's trying to rationalize the valuation. 00:57:37.850 --> 00:57:44.730 I haven't checked in in SpaceX lately, but you know fairly close to where it it IPO'd. 00:57:45.050 --> 00:57:45.290 Yeah. 00:57:47.530 --> 00:57:49.050 This is not financial advice. 00:57:49.130 --> 00:57:50.890 We are not financial advisors. 00:57:52.170 --> 00:57:53.610 Insert disclaimer. 00:57:54.010 --> 00:57:56.330 Shouldn't have given up my financial advising status. 00:57:56.410 --> 00:57:57.610 I should have kept that. 00:57:59.530 --> 00:58:03.210 But my general point is I just think some of this stuff's gonna get kind of choppy. 00:58:03.370 --> 00:58:05.290 I think job losses are gonna get choppy. 00:58:05.370 --> 00:58:11.930 I mean, Microsoft announced, you know, 20,000 like people like voluntary, you can resign. 00:58:12.570 --> 00:58:21.290 You know, the quiet, like I don't know, from my experience, friends of mine that have lost their job in the last year, maybe 20% of them have gotten a new job. 00:58:21.450 --> 00:58:24.890 They've been out of work for I know friends that have been out of work for a year and a half. 00:58:25.130 --> 00:58:25.690 Yeah. 00:58:25.930 --> 00:58:29.370 And they're getting by doing some consulting here and there, kind of thing. 00:58:29.450 --> 00:58:30.890 And they have a spouse that works. 00:58:31.050 --> 00:58:38.170 And so I think the the jobless stuff, I think, is something really that that kind of worries me. 00:58:39.770 --> 00:58:40.970 Inflation doesn't worry me. 00:58:41.050 --> 00:58:48.250 I mean, look, as long as people have jobs and could pay some bills, it's great, right? 00:58:48.490 --> 00:58:59.210 Maybe they can't go out to fancy restaurants, but you know, but the minute people can't generate income, that's yeah, that's scary. 00:58:59.370 --> 00:59:00.410 Yeah, yeah. 00:59:01.210 --> 00:59:05.050 All right, well, in uh in the pod today on a note of fear. 00:59:06.730 --> 00:59:08.090 Have a great week from everybody. 00:59:08.330 --> 00:59:13.850 Good luck, good luck dealing with job losses and end of society and riots. 00:59:14.970 --> 00:59:16.250 We're just all gonna live in the woods. 00:59:16.410 --> 00:59:17.690 We're just gonna live in the woods, man. 00:59:17.770 --> 00:59:19.130 What are you talking about? 00:59:19.610 --> 00:59:20.490 Have a great life. 00:59:20.650 --> 00:59:21.050 See ya. 00:59:22.250 --> 00:59:22.890 All right, man. 00:59:22.970 --> 00:59:23.690 We'll see ya.