TRANSCRIÇÃO 🔗
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Or perspective on today's talks and President Trump's handling of Iran.
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We get now two views. Alan Air had a four
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decade career in US government, including in the Foreign Service,
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focusing on Iran. He was part of the Obama administration's
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team that negotiated the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or
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jcpoa agreement with Iran. He's now at the Middle East Institute.
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And retired Colonel Joel Raeburn had a twenty six year
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career in the Army. During the first Trump administration, he
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was on the National Security Council staff, focusing on Iran
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in the Middle East. He's now a senior Fellow at
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the Hudson Institute. Welcome to you bout, gentlemen, Thanks for
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being here. Having Alan, I'll begin with you. Just give
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us your assessment of how the talks have gone so far,
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and also your assessment of how President Trump has been
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handling this approach, dealing with Iran, demanding it gives up
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its nuclear program, assembling a massive military force, and threatening
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strikes if there's no deal.
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I think that again, based on what we heard today,
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there has been progress, and I think if there were
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enough time given to the process, there could in fact
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be a nuclear agreement between Iran the United States. They
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made progress, but there's still key red lines. The problem
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is you have all that military hardware in the Persian
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Gulf and nearby, and you can't keep that there, definitely. So,
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I mean, the most salient fact of all of this
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is that the red lines for either side have not
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really shifted, not just since last year's twelve year war,
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but since the beginning of the negotiations between the Trump
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administration and the Iranians. So we can reach an agreement,
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but it depends on whether we're willing to allow indigenous
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enrichment in Iran. In terms of how President Trump is
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handling it, it's all a question of whether he wants
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to give enough time to the suicide to negotiate to
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reach a deal, and that's his decision.
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Colonel, how do you see it?
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Well, I think what's different this time around is that
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the administration it's not just a nuclear issue. Really, if
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you listened to the President, if you listen to Secretary
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of Rubio in particular, it's the other aspects of the
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Iranian regimes, destabilizing and aggressive behavior. It's the ballistic missile
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and drone production and proliferation, including for example, into the
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Ukraine War through the Russians. It's the support for the
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terrorist proxies like Hesbala, Hamas and so on, which in
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the Huthis which exploded on October seventh, in October eighth,
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So I think what the administration is after right now,
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It does seem the Iranian negotiators will always try to
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sequestrate down to the narrow issue of nuclear enrichment, leaving
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the rest of the aspects of the Iranian regimes aggressive
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policies unaddressed. And frankly, that was one of the fatal
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flaws of the twenty fifteen JCPOA that the Obama administration negotiated.
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It became just an agreement about the nuclear enrichment file
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and left costm Solamani and the Kudz force and Hesbala's
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behavior across the region unaddressed, the missile and drone aspect unaddressed,
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and that's what began to blow up then twenty seventeen,
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eighteen and so on.
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Alan to the point that this is what we've heard
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from the Trump administration. Have they made a convincing case
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about why there is an imminent threat from Iran that
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would warrant a military strike. Have you heard that yet?
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I have not heard. I obviously listened to the State
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of the Union speech. Joel is right, Iran presents a
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type of threat to the United States and that it
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is antagonistic to what we're trying to do in the region,
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to what we're trying to do in the world. But
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in terms of it being an imminent threat either in
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the sense of its nuclear program, its missile programs, or
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it's decimated, if not
Load full transcript
destroyed, networks of proxies, no, no threat. No,
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no imminent threat. And what's most interesting is that now
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Iran has lost almost all of its deterrence that it
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had before the October seventh attacks. So finding an agreement
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with Iran on the nuclear issue is theoretically possible. If
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you put missiles on the table, if you put proxies
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on the table, the odds of reaching an agreement where
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Iran is null null set, It's not going to happen.
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So, Colonel, if the goal is a deal, then why
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the military build up, why the expedited talks with the
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threat of a strike on the back end.
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Well, I think we're in a different world in a
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post October seventh and October eighth. Remember October seventh was
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the Hamas attack against Israel. October eighth was the Iranian
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regime and has Bali decision to enter that war, which
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they didn't have to do. That was a war of
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choice on the Iranian regimes, part of the Supreme Leader's
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decision making. So I think we're in a different when,
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in a different world post October seventh and eighth. Their
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use of militant proxies, the ballistic missiles and drones which
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they provided that have done so much damage in Ukraine.
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The huthis shutting down the Red Sea, for example, against
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against commercial shipping. That's not tolerated anymore. In that kind
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of hybrid threat from the Irani is not tolerated anymore.
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Many of those proxies been degraded.
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Now they've been degraded. They've been degraded, and the writing
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regimes on capabilities has been degraded. But the intention still
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seems to be there. And I think what the President
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and the administration are responding to is after the Twelve
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Day War last June, I think there was an expectation
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that the Supreme Leader in his regime would abandon that
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aggressive policy. They would they would abandon their ambitions to
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get back to nuclear enrichment, to continue to produce and
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proliferate drones and missiles, and then they would they would
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be willing to severtize or wind down the military proxies.
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And that just hasn't happened. The evidence has been in
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the other direction. I think that's what's been compelling this action.
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Are you concerned this will end with the US military
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strike and if so, what do you think that strike
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looks like? What form could it take.
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I'm not concernedabill end with a US military strike. I'm
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concerned it will start with the US military strike in
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the sense that Iran has made it known that, unlike
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previous responses, were to be attacked either what we would
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characterize as a limited or decapitation, any type of attack.
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Iran has said largely because it feels its deterrence has
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been eradicated and it needs to restore that it will
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respond aggressively and disproportionately. So I'm concerned that, despite the
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huge imbalance in military power between the US and Israel,
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were to join and Iran, that Iran will strike out
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and try to destabilize the region. Strike at our allies,
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strike at our forces in the region, strike at Israel,
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and that would lead two events in the in the
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region that can't be helpful.
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Colonel thirty seconds left, I'll give you the last word.
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I just think in a military confrontation, if it comes
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to that between the United States and Iran, it's not
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really a fight. It's not even just a fair fight.
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There really won't be a contest there. The Iranian regime
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has adopted as a security doctrine in which they essentially
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don't have conventional defenses. They don't really have an air force,
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a navy, an army, they barely have a missile and
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air defense. So this would be a short contest. It
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could be sharp, I think in the first couple of days,
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as it was in their confrontation with the Israelis last year.
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But the military disparity there is just vast, I think
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more than people understand.
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We'll see what happens. We'd love to have you back
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as things develop. Colonel Joel Rayburn and Alan Air, thank
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you so much for your time.
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Thank you having.
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