Transcrição completa de Profiling Week 1 Sneaky & Chalky DFS Plays

do no wrong. You could do whatever you want this year. We 59 00:05:01.750 --> 00:05:05.029 all think to Carlos Hide isn't really a person that we should worry about it 60 00:05:05.149 --> 00:05:10.699 terms of volume, but urban Meyer wants to use Carlos Hide and if he's 61 00:05:10.699 --> 00:05:14.779 going to do so to keep James Robinson fresh and healthy, I don't have 62 00:05:14.860 --> 00:05:17.019 a problem with that? Go ahead and give him some touches. Obviously, 63 00:05:17.220 --> 00:05:20.810 would not be great to see him utilize on the goal line. It's been 64 00:05:20.889 --> 00:05:26.050 kind of a fifty split in the preseason. However, I think that was 65 00:05:26.209 --> 00:05:31.170 to keep Jim Robinson healthy, I think, more than anything so James Robinson 66 00:05:31.209 --> 00:05:36.000 has a very fair price on draft kings. I believe he's sixty four hundred. 67 00:05:36.920 --> 00:05:43.079 Plan against that Houston Texans Defense, where they've lost a couple of their 68 00:05:43.160 --> 00:05:50.350 main linebacking core members, were looking at a team that is in disarray for 69 00:05:50.430 --> 00:05:57.910 the most part. I don't know how they anticipate getting through this season without 70 00:05:57.949 --> 00:06:03.819 making wholesale changes across their roster. But Houston was a team who struggled to 71 00:06:03.980 --> 00:06:10.779 defend the run last year and and didn't do much to get better. I've 72 00:06:11.220 --> 00:06:16.740 heard a couple of different twitter accounts expressing that from year to year you can't 73 00:06:16.779 --> 00:06:24.730 really look at the team's rankings or schedule and say that it's going to be 74 00:06:24.850 --> 00:06:28.970 the same. Every team improves, every team steps back. But, however, 75 00:06:29.129 --> 00:06:31.490 with a lot of the covid signings, a lot of players are getting 76 00:06:31.490 --> 00:06:38.519 signed to one year deals. Where people were retaining players. The the Texans 77 00:06:38.600 --> 00:06:43.680 in general. Have I heard something like twenty nine players on one year deals, 78 00:06:44.240 --> 00:06:49.709 where you're not getting heavy impacted players and you have a team that didn't 79 00:06:49.709 --> 00:06:55.430 make tremendous strides in free agency in the draft to improve the defense. So 80 00:06:57.029 --> 00:07:00.430 if you were struggling last year, I don't want to say that you're absolutely 81 00:07:00.509 --> 00:07:04.740 going to struggle this year. But with with covid and with the salary cap 82 00:07:04.939 --> 00:07:09.300 not expanding quite as much as everybody thought, I think that we might have 83 00:07:09.459 --> 00:07:13.339 a little more turnover this year than we did last year. So I'm targeting 84 00:07:13.620 --> 00:07:17.290 this running game. Running game that ranks thirty s versus running backs last year. 85 00:07:17.970 --> 00:07:23.649 Their last five last year were against Derrick Henry and week seventeen, then 86 00:07:23.730 --> 00:07:30.480 Joe Bernard Taylor, Dave Montgomery and then Johnson Taylor again, going back from 87 00:07:30.480 --> 00:07:33.639 week seventeen the week thirteen and they get up thirty nine, twenty one, 88 00:07:33.879 --> 00:07:42.319 nineteen, twenty seven and twenty two points to those running back so I feel 89 00:07:42.360 --> 00:07:46.589 like James Robinson is a pretty safe play that you can play in cash. 90 00:07:46.949 --> 00:07:53.069 You know he has a three point x value at a projection of nineteen point 91 00:07:53.149 --> 00:07:59.060 three points on the line. Star APP I don't. I don't see any 92 00:07:59.139 --> 00:08:01.220 problems here? I don't see any problems here. You can put him in 93 00:08:01.980 --> 00:08:09.100 in GPP's as well. I there are other players that have a similar price 94 00:08:09.259 --> 00:08:13.810 tag who you know, like Joe Mixon, that that might garner some of 95 00:08:13.930 --> 00:08:20.529 that ownership. I think another play is Antonio Gibson at five nine hundred, 96 00:08:20.610 --> 00:08:24.769 who people are going to jump all over. Chris Carson at five nine hundred 97 00:08:24.769 --> 00:08:31.160 as well. Some of these players are in similar spots, but Chris Carson 98 00:08:31.240 --> 00:08:35.720 has so much more consistency in certainty around him in that passing game. If 99 00:08:35.720 --> 00:08:41.629 they they you know, get down or they catch a little bit of fire 100 00:08:41.750 --> 00:08:46.389 there. You I could see a Russell Wilson, you know, three touchdown 101 00:08:46.429 --> 00:08:50.710 game potentially, or even a struggle fest going in against the team in the 102 00:08:50.789 --> 00:08:54.149 northwest. There's a there's a lot of ways that that game could go, 103 00:08:54.230 --> 00:08:58.940 especially with guys like Darius Leonard Manning the middle. That could be a Gamer. 104 00:09:00.019 --> 00:09:03.500 Chris Carson, it has, has some pretty high ownership due to his 105 00:09:03.620 --> 00:09:09.009 price, but doesn't really outperform that fourteen point projection. Same thing with Antonio 106 00:09:09.090 --> 00:09:15.049 Gibson, wasn't used as heavily as we might have liked in the passing game 107 00:09:15.090 --> 00:09:20.769 during the preseason garb to peyton barber, so presumably any short yardage work should 108 00:09:20.769 --> 00:09:24.759 be his, like we all expected. By Antony Gibson, is another guy 109 00:09:24.759 --> 00:09:31.200 who has fourteen point, seven point projection play against the chargers defense, who 110 00:09:31.639 --> 00:09:37.240 was not very strong last year, rank twenty four against the position but, 111 00:09:37.519 --> 00:09:43.309 you know, should be taking some potential strides this year. I don't think 112 00:09:43.350 --> 00:09:46.269 it is a bad spot by any stretch, but I don't think it a 113 00:09:46.389 --> 00:09:52.059 smashbot either if he's going to be sharing some time.

So Jen Robinson as 114 00:09:52.059 --> 00:09:54.860 a guy who I, like I said, is a guy who can put 115 00:09:54.860 --> 00:10:00.460 in in every single lineup. I have a lineup with him as well as 116 00:10:00.500 --> 00:10:07.049 Rahim most where raheemost is playing against the detroits thirty second rank defense against the 117 00:10:07.129 --> 00:10:15.009 run. I'm sure Detroit is going to be more conservative in their approach, 118 00:10:15.009 --> 00:10:18.610 trying to project a protect jared goff. I'm sure that they're going to want 119 00:10:18.610 --> 00:10:22.919 to try to stop the run as well. However, Rahim most in this 120 00:10:24.320 --> 00:10:30.919 in this ers offense, the lines were pretty good at stopping the run on, 121 00:10:30.919 --> 00:10:33.240 let you know, gap and power type plays, but we're not great 122 00:10:33.320 --> 00:10:37.789 against outside zone. If I'm not mistaken, last year. This is a 123 00:10:37.870 --> 00:10:41.789 zone heavy team. I feel like right he mosted his one or two plays 124 00:10:41.830 --> 00:10:46.909 away from a hundred yard bonus and, you know, one or two touchdown 125 00:10:46.950 --> 00:10:48.950 day and then, let you know, Trey sermon and the other guys eat 126 00:10:50.019 --> 00:10:54.259 for the rest of the game. At fifty eight hundred. I like Rhee 127 00:10:54.340 --> 00:10:56.740 most her more than some of those other guys I mentioned at five nine hundred. 128 00:10:58.940 --> 00:11:03.220 Mile Sanders being at sixty five against Atlanta is another one that people are 129 00:11:03.259 --> 00:11:09.289 going to potentially try to go to. Atlanta is kind of struggled a little 130 00:11:09.289 --> 00:11:13.610 bit against pass catching running backs, but I think that that was more so 131 00:11:13.850 --> 00:11:18.639 do to Dan Quinn's defense playing a lot of cover three and running and chasing 132 00:11:18.720 --> 00:11:22.559 and rallying and taking away those short passes after the catch was already made. 133 00:11:24.279 --> 00:11:26.679 With Dean P's I think that the we're going to see some differences from the 134 00:11:26.799 --> 00:11:31.320 Falcon's offense. They still don't work. Excuse me, the defense. The 135 00:11:31.759 --> 00:11:35.950 defense still doesn't profile. Is a super stout defense as far as the personnel 136 00:11:37.029 --> 00:11:41.830 goes, but Dean P's coming over from you know, the Ravens and and 137 00:11:41.029 --> 00:11:45.909 Tennessee helping those defenses out. I feel like he is going to be a 138 00:11:45.990 --> 00:11:50.259 guy who is going to put those guys in a position to succeed where they 139 00:11:50.299 --> 00:11:54.139 might have some ups, more ups than last year. So that brings me 140 00:11:54.299 --> 00:12:00.139 to my kind of get weird, live dangerously GPP play. I'm taking the 141 00:12:00.179 --> 00:12:05.570 Atlanta Falcons at two thousand dead minimum on DK as my defense, and in 142 00:12:05.730 --> 00:12:11.730 some of my tournaments you can even play him and play them in cash. 143 00:12:13.210 --> 00:12:18.200 They should, at a two point seven valuation, be able to or two 144 00:12:18.240 --> 00:12:24.320 point seven x value, be able to hit their their five point projection. 145 00:12:24.440 --> 00:12:28.320 But this is a defense who, week one, has a ton of time 146 00:12:28.559 --> 00:12:35.470 to plan and study. Jalen hurts, Guy who only had a couple of 147 00:12:35.549 --> 00:12:37.909 starts last year, a guy who was up and down. I'm a huge 148 00:12:37.909 --> 00:12:43.269 jalen hurts fan. I think that he has a great opportunity to utilize his 149 00:12:43.299 --> 00:12:48.100 legs. But if MP's is going to throw different blitz looks and different zone 150 00:12:48.220 --> 00:12:52.940 looks, you might be able to take away some of that running ability if 151 00:12:52.940 --> 00:12:56.820 you run a little bit more zone there. Their past catching or receiving core 152 00:12:58.139 --> 00:13:03.730 is not overlea stout in Philadelphia. So at the end of the day you're 153 00:13:03.730 --> 00:13:07.169 not really looking at too many weapons that are going to just, you know, 154 00:13:07.330 --> 00:13:13.360 blow you away. They should be a steady offense. Their offensive line 155 00:13:13.360 --> 00:13:16.159 should be more healthy, so they should be more ready to go. But 156 00:13:16.799 --> 00:13:20.159 there's still some question marks there. So if deem bees can D dial up 157 00:13:20.200 --> 00:13:26.679 a bigtime game plan, the linebacking core being the strength of the Falcons team, 158 00:13:26.720 --> 00:13:30.190 they can stop the run. Last year we're a very sneaky run, 159 00:13:30.230 --> 00:13:37.070 quality run Defense Force them into passing at a volume that they probably don't want 160 00:13:37.110 --> 00:13:41.019 to be. They probably want to be a more balanced offense there in Philadelphia. 161 00:13:41.500 --> 00:13:43.659 They're throwing a little bit more. You know, you might see a 162 00:13:43.700 --> 00:13:48.820 couple of interceptions here, a couple of sacks and I think they opened at 163 00:13:48.860 --> 00:13:56.450 a forty seven total, which which is not ultralow, but it's not ultra 164 00:13:56.450 --> 00:14:01.809 highs right in the middle. So I think that's that's a great play if 165 00:14:01.889 --> 00:14:05.370 you want to throw in one or two lineups just to kind of differentiate yourself 166 00:14:05.610 --> 00:14:09.279 and really give you that flexibility to jam in a bunch of studs. Might 167 00:14:09.360 --> 00:14:15.639 have a lineup where I'm playing that defense as well as my next kind of 168 00:14:15.799 --> 00:14:20.320 get weird, kind of lay in order to Jamm and guys like C MC 169 00:14:20.559 --> 00:14:26.110 and Dalvin Cook so my next play is going to be Tyler Croft, the 170 00:14:26.269 --> 00:14:31.470 tight end for the New York jets, and and Tyler Croft is a guy 171

00:14:31.549 --> 00:14:35.269 who has never been a big time fantasy contributor. He had a season, 172 00:14:35.350 --> 00:14:39.940 I believe in two thousand and sixteen, agree, about four hundred yards and 173 00:14:41.019 --> 00:14:43.740 seven touchdowns, forty two catches, something like that, where he kind of 174 00:14:45.019 --> 00:14:46.820 surprised a little bit, kind of was a guy you could pick up off 175 00:14:46.940 --> 00:14:54.929 of your waiver wire and be a touchdown dependent type of tight end, but 176 00:14:54.129 --> 00:14:58.330 other than that he hasn't been a guy you can rely on a consistent basis. 177 00:14:58.370 --> 00:15:05.889 But in this offense utilizing the tight end heavily, coming over from the 178 00:15:05.169 --> 00:15:09.480 the Ers, I believe that he's in a great spot, at least in 179 00:15:09.639 --> 00:15:13.480 week one, to have that, you know, twenty five hundred dollar price 180 00:15:13.600 --> 00:15:18.399 tag, catch a touchdown and maybe get, you know, four catches for 181 00:15:18.480 --> 00:15:24.269 forty or fifty yards and set you up big with the other point positions in 182 00:15:24.509 --> 00:15:28.629 your lineup. If you take a look at what they've done in the preseason, 183 00:15:28.669 --> 00:15:33.470 they let go of Chris Herndon, Kenny, you boa, the the 184 00:15:33.909 --> 00:15:39.580 tight end out of old miss the only other major pass catcher I believe is 185 00:15:39.620 --> 00:15:43.820 on the practice squad now. There's nobody else in that tight in room who 186 00:15:43.100 --> 00:15:48.820 is going to garner a ton of targets or even playing time. You know 187 00:15:48.019 --> 00:15:52.850 that old age, or the age old adage that you know young quarterbacks are 188 00:15:52.889 --> 00:15:54.809 going to throw it to the tight end, and that may or may not 189 00:15:54.929 --> 00:15:58.850 be true, but we've seen a Zach Wilson has an affinity to throw the 190 00:15:58.970 --> 00:16:03.009 Corty Cory Davis. Earlier in training camp he had an affinity to throw to 191 00:16:03.129 --> 00:16:07.840 Elijah more and also with Tyler Croft. So Elijah more's, you know, 192 00:16:08.000 --> 00:16:11.759 been nicked up a little bit towards the end of training camp. He sounds 193 00:16:11.799 --> 00:16:15.600 like he should be able to play, but crowder is not going to be 194 00:16:15.759 --> 00:16:19.870 playing, not going to be manning the slot. So might get another target 195 00:16:19.909 --> 00:16:25.429 or too coming the ways by the ways of the tight end. At the 196 00:16:25.470 --> 00:16:29.789 end of the day it really comes down to how do you feel about that 197 00:16:29.950 --> 00:16:36.019 connection in that game and how do you feel about utilizing a guy who may 198 00:16:36.139 --> 00:16:41.700 get you two catches for ten yards? I think I've seen a little bit 199 00:16:41.740 --> 00:16:47.019 more traction building because the panthers were not good at defending the

tight end last 200 00:16:47.059 --> 00:16:49.809 year and they didn't do very much in free agency. Are The draft to 201 00:16:49.929 --> 00:16:56.129 address that position. They did pick up JAC HORNE WHO, by all account, 202 00:16:56.210 --> 00:17:00.809 should probably be spending a decent amount of time on Cory Davis and if 203 00:17:00.929 --> 00:17:03.319 so, then some of those past, you know, passing targets might be 204 00:17:03.519 --> 00:17:08.720 funneled elsewhere. He might not get that seventy five percent get sure he's beginning 205 00:17:10.079 --> 00:17:14.599 during his snaps in the preseason. So I like Tyler Croft. I like 206 00:17:14.799 --> 00:17:18.069 the Atlanta's defense, not as mainstays where I'm going to play them in every 207 00:17:18.150 --> 00:17:23.150 lineup, but I do have them sprinkled in as well as sprinkled in together 208 00:17:23.750 --> 00:17:27.230 to really really be able to jam in guys that I want to play, 209 00:17:27.950 --> 00:17:33.420 those upper levels, seven and eight K guys, so I can try to 210 00:17:33.660 --> 00:17:37.380 maximize that in a cash game lineup or two and then maybe even a GPP 211 00:17:37.579 --> 00:17:44.410 lineup. As I stated, I'm going to leave the major roster construction in 212 00:17:44.569 --> 00:17:48.890 major player evaluation to the guys who do this a ton, the guys who 213 00:17:48.930 --> 00:17:52.849 have much more research and experience. But those are just some guys that I'm 214 00:17:52.890 --> 00:17:56.890 taking some shots on, guys that you know, I don't I don't hear 215 00:17:56.930 --> 00:18:00.039 a whole lot about. So maybe guys. You want to look at other 216 00:18:00.160 --> 00:18:03.440 than that. You know, I hope that everybody is enjoying their fantasy leagues' 217 00:18:04.440 --> 00:18:08.359 first week. I mean the the first game was a great game to start 218 00:18:08.440 --> 00:18:14.029 off with. You know, high scoring, you know, high passing offense 219 00:18:14.150 --> 00:18:17.589 game. I mean it sucks to see the injuries to Gallop. Hopefully, 220 00:18:17.990 --> 00:18:19.910 you know, he'll be back sooner rather than later, but it looks like, 221 00:18:21.029 --> 00:18:22.630 you know, Cooper and lamb are going to pick up where they left 222 00:18:22.670 --> 00:18:30.099 off. It looks like Zeke struggled a little bit. He's not quite looking 223 00:18:30.140 --> 00:18:33.940 as surprise you would have hoped. When you hear all of the cliche he's 224 00:18:33.019 --> 00:18:38.059 lost articles and things of that nature. I just think that at some point, 225 00:18:38.339 --> 00:18:42.450 you know in your career, sometimes you know that you start losing that 226 00:18:42.490 --> 00:18:47.930 juice and it looks like Pollard has it, but we've never seen Pollard hold 227 00:18:48.009 --> 00:18:52.009 up to a big time workload and we know that even with less juice, 228 00:18:52.049 --> 00:18:56.359 that Z can do that. So that that kind of backsfield splits going to 229 00:18:56.400 --> 00:19:00.119 be interesting. I think in the Games whereas he gets major volume he's going 230 00:19:00.240 --> 00:19:03.240 to be a why or R be one for you, and Games where he 231 00:19:03.319 --> 00:19:07.319 doesn't get major volume when he's getting touches in the, you know, ten 232 00:19:07.480 --> 00:19:11.390 to fourteen range like those might be, you know, R betwo or worst 233 00:19:11.630 --> 00:19:12.990 games, and so, you know, I would be a little bit more 234 00:19:14.150 --> 00:19:18.390 worried about that, you know. Lastly, I mean, Hey guys, 235 00:19:18.029 --> 00:19:22.829 if you guys want to engage with us on twitter again, hit us at 236 00:19:23.619 --> 00:19:29.339 pay dirt, underscore profile, give us a follow. Let us know what 237 00:19:29.460 --> 00:19:33.900 you like which dislike from the podcast. We're still learning, we're still trying 238 00:19:33.940 --> 00:19:37.809 to grow, we're still trying to find our niche. I spent a lot 239 00:19:37.890 --> 00:19:42.970 of time this offseason listening to podcast. As I stated, I was on 240 00:19:44.009 --> 00:19:48.890 the rookie all the ride podcast. I mean I'm massive thirty two team twitter 241 00:19:49.250 --> 00:19:55.319 fantasy league with other people that are in the industry. They're much further ahead 242 00:19:55.359 --> 00:19:57.759 than I am. We spent a lot of time speaking in our and our 243 00:19:57.799 --> 00:20:03.240 chat and I have to thank Christian Williams for putting that together and inviting me 244 00:20:03.279 --> 00:20:07.589 to that league. I also was able to show up on the going for 245 00:20:07.750 --> 00:20:12.829 two live podcast where we broke down the teams. In regards to that League, 246 00:20:14.549 --> 00:20:18.230 got to talk with Jake Estis and a ton of different guys who are 247 00:20:18.349 --> 00:20:22.500 in this industry who, again no more than I do, have more experience 248 00:20:22.500 --> 00:20:26.460 than I do. So I'm trying to be a sponge, trying to learn. 249 00:20:26.220 --> 00:20:33.380 I think one of our goals mainly is to learn, engage, listen, 250 00:20:33.940 --> 00:20:37.569 try to be inclusive in the community. Next we want to make sure 251 00:20:37.650 --> 00:20:42.210 that we can try to build a process. I've been watching football for my 252 00:20:42.369 --> 00:20:48.329 entire life, as well as our other hosts. We've we've all been around 253 00:20:48.329 --> 00:20:52.039 the game. You know, I played football as well as Jamar at Sandigo 254 00:20:52.119 --> 00:20:57.960 state, Kyle played the University of Redlands, as well as coaches for high 255 00:20:57.960 --> 00:21:03.720 school currently, and then Tony, he's been around the game his entire life 256 00:21:03.000 --> 00:21:08.430 and also films for NFL films. So we do have a good baseline of 257 00:21:08.549 --> 00:21:12.589 knowledge, but there is a ton to learn as far as the analytics and 258 00:21:14.589 --> 00:21:19.380 things that you know intuitively and things that you picked up over time, finding 259 00:21:19.380 --> 00:21:25.660 out a way that you can condense that all into one package. You know, 260 00:21:25.859 --> 00:21:30.859 the idea is the pay dirt profile, you know, profiling ways that 261 00:21:30.220 --> 00:21:33.930 you can, you know, get your listeners to hit pater, to have 262 00:21:34.089 --> 00:21:38.650 success, to to be able to share and be more knowledgeable. That's the 263 00:21:38.769 --> 00:21:44.410 goal. So we're just trying to do things that we can to to get 264 00:21:44.529 --> 00:21:49.599 to be more consistent and to get to be more actionable in our processes instead 265 00:21:49.680 --> 00:21:53.160 of just, you know, intuitively saying this is what I think, you 266 00:21:53.279 --> 00:21:57.240 know, having a little bit more behind it as far as analysis and analytics. 267 00:21:57.839 --> 00:22:02.150 So that's something definitely going to continue working on. As for now, 268 00:22:03.269 --> 00:22:07.910 continue to try to deliver information like this. Do So and interact on twitter 269 00:22:07.829 --> 00:22:12.789 and on Instagram, on facebook. You can also email us at the pay 270 00:22:12.910 --> 00:22:22.019 dirt profile at gmailcom. Any collaboration opportunities or any constructive criticism is always appreciated. 271 00:22:22.259 --> 00:22:26.859 So thank you, guys, for listening. Everybody. Good luck everybody. 272 00:22:26.980 --> 00:22:30.650 Hope you have a good first week. I'm going to be with my 273 00:22:30.809 --> 00:22:36.289 daughter tomorrow while my wife is out at a spa, and we're going to 274 00:22:36.329 --> 00:22:40.329 kick back, hang out watching football, place in games, probably go to 275 00:22:40.450 --> 00:22:45.960 the pool. Hope you guys enjoy your weekend and until next time we're out