TRANSCRIÇÃO 🔗
WEBVTT
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I already know I'm in a I'm gonna regret being in the middle seat today because I feel like Jonathan has a lot to say.
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Hello everybody, welcome to the podcast.
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This is the Commission Impossible podcast, and we're out here ready to have some fun.
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We're back in the office, and we've got three.
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There are three of us today, two amazing guests and one amazing host, and three awesome topics.
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So, back by popular demand, again and again and again.
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Troy, who has been talking about becoming the host, and I'll be leaving the podcast hopefully soon.
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But he's back.
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He doesn't usually like to say anything when I introduce him, but we'll allow him that opportunity.
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I'm only going to say this.
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You started the pod by saying hello.
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So hello.
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Perfect.
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And Jonathan Owens joins us today, who is a superstar retail broker at Newmark Mountain West, who represents a ton of tenants, but three, which or four, which he would allow us to talk about are Harmons, Dix, Ace, AutoZone.
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I could say five more, but I won't.
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Welcome.
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I appreciate it.
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Thanks for having me.
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All right.
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Who wants to go first?
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I want to go first.
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I feel like I went first last time, though.
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Probably.
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Probably did.
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Selfish.
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Were you talking about Texas Roadhouse last time?
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I can't remember.
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I don't remember.
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The lobster tank?
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I don't know.
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I have to get my phone out because I kept some notes on my phone on this subject.
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But um yeah, I'll go I'll go first.
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Obviously, we we like to we like to hit a couple of different topics each week.
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And uh I volunteered for uh for this one.
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I'm excited about it, as you can see by the expression on my face.
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Um I've gotta get my note though.
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Okay, okay.
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Who remembers where they were on March 9th, 2020?
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March 9th, 2020.
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I think the jazz were playing in Minnesota.
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Load full transcript
They were.
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I remember this distinctly because I was leaving the office to try to get home to catch the jazz playing Minnesota, and I turned it on on the radio, and it was David Locke talking, and he said, and it was essentially alluding to we don't know what's going on.
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They were set for the tip off, and everybody has now gone into the locker room.
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Yeah, I think that was the night Rudy Gobert caused COVID.
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That's exactly right.
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Yeah.
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Two days later, he was diagnosed with COVID.
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Right.
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That was my last day in the office for 11 months.
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All right.
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Two days later.
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So if you were to think back on the um the other things that kind of occurred during that time.
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So March 11th, the uh World Health Organization stated that we were in a global pandemic.
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Also the day that Rudy was found to have you know tested positive for COVID.
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On March 13th, um, the United States government acknowledged we got a problem, right?
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And on March 18th, March 18th, something crazy happened in Salt Lake City.
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Many of us were probably, you know, shopping for toilet paper that day as we were preparing for this pandemic.
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Most likely.
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On March 18th, there was a 5.7 magnitude earthquake.
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That was that was magical.
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That's completely remember that.
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And that day, Moroni dropped his trunk.
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You remember this?
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I remember that because I I was awoken by it, and my daughter at the time was like 16, and I have no idea how she got this information, but like 38 seconds after the earthquake, she said the angel Moroni just fell off the temple.
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I was like, I don't even what are you talking about?
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Like, there's no way that's real.
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There's no way that happened.
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But it was partially true.
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So the trumpet fell.
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And um, and so when I think back on, and and my topic is the is the temple renovation and and the celebration that's coming up, but when I think back on that, I I had always kind of imagined that that's when the uh church decided to do the renovation.
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But you're correct, they actually started the construction in December of 2019.
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Okay.
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Yeah.
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So it was it was under construction when the trumpet fell.
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Got it.
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Early stages, right?
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So uh so anyway, so Jonathan's like cool.
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Yeah, he's super.
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A lot is lost on me, but I can intimate that it is that was an ominous thing to have happen.
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That was those were crazy times.
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Sure.
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Yeah.
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Where were you when the earthquake hit?
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I was in bed by myself.
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My wife and daughter were at my mother-in-law's, and I was by myself, and it woke me up.
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And I remember thinking, I gotta climb up on my roof and look to see if the pit of hell has opened up somewhere nearby.
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Because the look that was grumbling.
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It's crazy times, right?
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Where were you?
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I was in bed, yeah.
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It woke me up.
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So I was shopping for toilet paper.
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I was at dance at Foothill Village.
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Yep.
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And like 7:30 in the morning?
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No, no, no.
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It was the one that it was an aftershock.
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It was like later that morning.
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First one was the 7.30.
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Yeah, first one was early.
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First one was early.
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The aftershock was later, and I remember watching all the like all the aisles, like groceries were falling off.
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It was just crazy, right?
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We none of us knew what was happening, and we had this thing with the pandemic, and anyway.
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So that's when the church started construction.
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Here's some stats now.
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I gotta read this off my phone.
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1,000, this is from Jacobson construction.
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1,000 workers a day, 20 hours per day, over a million man hours later.
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Billions and billions of dollars.
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That's not that's not the point.
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No, but it is.
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No, it is, it is.
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Yeah, billions and billions.
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I was actually thinking about this the other day.
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Somebody was talking about this subject, and I I mean, I don't know what the number is, nobody does, but I would I would guesstimate that the church has
probably spent ten billion dollars in the last 10 years in downtown Salt Lake.
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Oh, for sure.
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City Creek and all the different assets the temple.
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Well, yeah, City Creek.
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I mean, when that was built, it was the only mall in the country being built, and the official numbers on that were two and a half billion dollars.
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Yeah, and a similar number was attributed to the temple, around two and a half billion dollars.
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This is an incredible investment, like just objectively, irrespective of religion and all that stuff, like it's isn't an incredible investment into downtown Salt Lake.
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Yeah, no question.
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Um, and along those lines, how does that investment kind of impact the city over the course of the next six months, or I guess, well, six plus couple, so 10 months.
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Let me give you guys some more stats.
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So right now, um, we're currently well, let's go pre-pandemic.
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So, pre-pandemic, um, we had on average about 46,000 um well, let's see, okay, so 36,000 daily office visits downtown pre-pandemic, so 2019.
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And um, and then non-office visits totaled 46,000.
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So there were almost 80,000 people a day in downtown Salt Lake City back in 2019.
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Uh, forward to today, we're at about 60,000 people per day and the 38,000 on the weekends.
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So the office is down about 30%.
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Um, what they're estimating with this new um celebration is an additional 22 to 30,000 people a day, um, which gets us back to about 90,000 on the weekdays and 70,000 on the on the weekends.
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Big numbers.
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They're estimating 5 million people will visit downtown Salt Lake City between uh April and October.
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Um, they'll have shuttles from the airport downtown, they're closing South Temple.
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I mean, this is this is going to be a pretty momentous occasion.
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Uh it's been 130 years or something since people have been able to be inside this this the temple who aren't members of the LDS Church.
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So I'm really excited about it.
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I'm excited for what it'll do for downtown business.
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I I do feel like it'll have a positive impact.
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I may have missed it.
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When is this?
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When's the date, the official date?
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We've already gotten tickets for you.
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Okay.
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I just need the date.
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Let me know when I can schedule it out-of-the-art.
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Uh it starts April 7th and it ends October 7th.
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Okay.
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So um I'm sure someone's earmarked some tickets for you.
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And then it gets resealed, and I'm no longer allowed back to it.
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And then you just have to jump through some hoops and you can get right back in.
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I yeah, I think uh look, hey, as a resident of Salt Lake City, and we're officed, one of our offices uh is our headquarters are in downtown Salt Lake.
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It's fabulous.
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More bodies downtown or better.
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It restores us to levels that we were pre-pandemic.
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Um, those people that are coming in spend dollars.
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Yeah, lots of dollars.
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So and we've talked about the restaurants that have closed in downtown Salt Lake.
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We've talked about some of the retail struggles and the rising lease rates and and all these, you know, things that have kind of contributed to to some challenges downtown.
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Well, hopefully this provides a little bit of relief.
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And we did a white paper a couple of uh weeks ago, which we can link in the bio of this pod, but um, it really showed the downtown Salt Lake, especially the nightlife, has really boosted the last couple of years.
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And I think um, if I'm paraphrasing the report, nightlife is better than it's ever been in downtown Salt Lake.
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I don't mean like I just mean like the amount of people in downtown Salt Lake is more than it's ever been.
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I'm doing my best.
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You know, I should have been down at about 8:30, but I'm going hard till then.
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Yeah.
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Every day.
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Thank you.
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I think it's incredible.
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I think about the first apartment I had post-college, so it would have been 2010, 11.
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Salt Lake City, I mean, it was a ghost town.
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I was a few blocks from O'Shucks, and that was essentially the only bar in Salt Lake, and you'd see the same 12 people every time you went, whether you were with friends or not.
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Just Irish people?
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No, none of those either.
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Um, but what it is now, I don't get down as often as I I used to, but it's an it's not a recognizable place for what I used to live down here, which I think is incredible.
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In addition, it from a real estate perspective, whenever I have clients in town, bar none, every single time, we always take a lap through downtown, and everybody wants to see Temple Square and they want to hear about the history of it and everything else, and all the investment and the time spent on these city blocks.
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And everybody's always really impressed by it, not only because of the history and everything else, but that we have this driving engine that really I don't want to say artificially props up our downtown, but it has forced it to grow up in a way that I don't think we would have grown up without that kind of investment.
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So I think it's a boon for the city to have it back home.
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No question.
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No doubt.
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Yeah, I'm excited for it.
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I think next year 2027 is gonna be crazy bringing that many people downtown.
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I think parking, like if you start to think about the the logistics of it, parking is gonna be incredibly challenging.
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Yeah.
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I mean, the church actually owns tons of parking all over downtown.
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I'm sure they'll absorb all of that and then some.
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And then layer on top of all of that, jazz games, mammoth games.
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Well, we're not gonna, I mean, are we playing with your playoff team this year?
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So maybe maybe there will be some jazz games.
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Don't be like that.
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Okay, yeah, we'll get there later.
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Long, long run, deep into the playoffs.
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Yeah.
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Yeah, it's it's cool.
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It's exciting.
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I mean, it's been a long time.
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I'm I'm excited.
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It'll be fun.
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Thanks.
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We'll get your tickets.
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I can't wait.
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I've never been in one.
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Let's get it.
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Alright, let me jump into uh something that I've been thinking about.
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It's a really exciting subject.
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Malls.
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Malls.
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Shopping malls.
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So what if I told you guys malls are better than they've ever been?
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Would you believe me?
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Ever?
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I'd ask you to qualify that as well.
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Ever in our lifetime, which is essentially ever.
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I
would have a hard time believing that.
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That's fair.
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Are you D malls or malls?
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Malls.
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No way.
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Alright.
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Let me challenge this.
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How many malls were in America in 2010 in the middle of the Great Recession?
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I would expect you guys to know the answer to this, obviously.
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350.
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1,200.
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I don't know how you guessed 1,200, because that's actually what the number was.
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Get out of here, really?
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It's a mall guy.
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I've found the only guy in America that knows mall stats.
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Is there really 1,200?
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There were 1,200 malls in America in 2010.
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Today, how many malls are there?
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350.
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750.
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There's 700 malls.
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You never decided malls.
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Off the top of my head.
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No, that's not true.
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Did you guys meet before that?
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No, I felt like we should have.
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But there are 700 malls.
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So obviously, significantly less.
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And why are there significantly less?
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We know the answer, but I think it's a really interesting thing.
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I don't answer why.
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The answer is the same issue that's that's been happening with retail overall.
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In in the Great Recession, we were over-retailed in many ways.
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Right.
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And we were building a ton of retail.
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We had a ton of retail that had been delivered, and there was heavy vacancy, and malls were pretty much at the forefront of that.
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You had Class A, Class B, Class C malls, and there were malls everywhere.
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And they were garbage.
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Like of so many malls were just garbage malls that probably should have never been built.
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It was in a time where you know everyone had a department store.
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Remember how many department stores there used to be?
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There are far fewer department stores now than there used to be.
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And vacancy rates in 2010 on malls and retail in general was 10 to 15 percent.
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Right.
00:14:04.480 --> 00:14:09.279
Vacancy rates today on malls are around 3 to 5%.
00:14:10.159 --> 00:14:12.080
So far fewer malls.
00:14:12.399 --> 00:14:27.440
Everyone has has basically flown to class A assets, and most of the malls that were class B, class C have been demuled, sold, redeveloped, scraped, or they're just literally standing vacant today.
00:14:28.240 --> 00:14:32.639
So the absorption sort of happened by deduction.
00:14:32.799 --> 00:14:33.120
Yeah.
00:14:33.440 --> 00:14:37.679
Um and so I I think malls have never been better.
00:14:40.080 --> 00:14:40.879
Well, it's interesting.
00:14:40.960 --> 00:14:50.000
If you take the ones here, it's interesting because the malls that still do really, really well were just great real estate, right?
00:14:50.240 --> 00:14:56.799
Fashion Place, Leyton Hills, even though it's it's kind of a tired old thing, it's still great real estate.
00:14:57.120 --> 00:14:59.519
It's right off there, right off Hillfeld Road.
00:14:59.840 --> 00:15:04.480
Southtown Mall, it's gone through its own trials and tribulations, but it's great real estate.
00:15:04.559 --> 00:15:10.480
And then you even look at one like Cottonwood Mall, which well, I think was the first indoor mall west of the Mississippi.
00:15:10.799 --> 00:15:12.879
But became a class B, Class C.
00:15:13.360 --> 00:15:19.279
Terrible real estate for a mall, but ultimately in the fullness of time, has become good real estate again.
00:15:19.440 --> 00:15:21.200
It's had to be reimagined.
00:15:21.519 --> 00:15:26.320
Cash Valley Mall in Logan, similarly, not good for them all, but good real estate.
00:15:26.559 --> 00:15:27.120
Great real estate.
00:15:27.279 --> 00:15:30.879
And ultimately got devalued to the point where it could be repurposed.
00:15:31.039 --> 00:15:44.240
And I think we're seeing this, you know, when we're looking for bigger box tenants, there is a real overabundance of demand for the boxes that exist in these malls, and there's just not enough of it anywhere.
00:15:44.399 --> 00:15:44.879
That's right.
00:15:45.120 --> 00:15:50.559
Every hey, we have Wayfair looking for 120,000 feet up and down the Wasatch front.
00:15:50.639 --> 00:15:56.480
We would love yeah, we'd love to peel any of that off from any existing mall, and none of it exists.
00:15:56.799 --> 00:16:04.320
But to that point, in 2010, 11, 12, if you said I have Wayfair looking for 120,000 square feet, you would have developers at your house tonight.
00:16:04.480 --> 00:16:05.120
Yes, exactly.
00:16:05.440 --> 00:16:07.519
Knocking on your windows, serious boxes for you.
00:16:07.679 --> 00:16:07.840
Yeah.
00:16:08.000 --> 00:16:18.399
It's interesting though, like the the malls that you're describing that had that are that are situated in in you know really great locations, I think I think the real estate has certainly been part of their success.
00:16:18.639 --> 00:16:36.320
But every one of these mall owners has had a very proactive approach to maximizing, you know, building pads, um,
making their mall outward-facing, um, you know, taking advantage of those big vacant boxes and and potentially adding multifamily to the mall.
00:16:36.559 --> 00:16:39.360
I mean, I'm I'm working on a Provo Town Center right now.
00:16:39.440 --> 00:16:44.320
I've worked on the Gateway for 10 plus years, uh, worked on Valley Fair for a period of time.
00:16:44.399 --> 00:16:49.360
And and one thing that that uh Valley Fair and Gateway have in common is this is a resume or is this a public?
00:16:49.840 --> 00:16:51.360
He got to talk about all the Tennessee representations.
00:16:51.519 --> 00:16:52.879
No, he's bitching his face right now.
00:16:53.279 --> 00:16:57.120
I never even get an opportunity to like, hi, I'm Troy Hardy, commercial real estate.
00:16:57.600 --> 00:16:59.039
Um, don't lead with that.
00:16:59.120 --> 00:17:01.279
I don't, I know it's tempting.
00:17:01.519 --> 00:17:17.039
Um but but the reality is they all have this in common in that they're all adding multifamily, they're adding office, they're adding these other components so they can kind of generate more daytime captive traffic, and that that's helping with the overall productivity of these malls.
00:17:17.200 --> 00:17:20.240
I do think though, like I look at fashion place, that's an outlier.
00:17:20.319 --> 00:17:22.319
I mean, that is that is such incredible real estate.
00:17:22.400 --> 00:17:23.519
But Southtown, perfect reason.
00:17:23.680 --> 00:17:25.200
Why is Southtown successful?
00:17:25.440 --> 00:17:26.960
Because it's being demuled.
00:17:27.279 --> 00:17:30.400
So while we're talking about Fashion Place, what do you guys think?
00:17:30.799 --> 00:17:36.559
The world of malls are generally judged by their sales per square foot, right?
00:17:36.799 --> 00:17:37.039
Right.
00:17:37.200 --> 00:17:48.000
Um, so fashion place, let's start actually with the number one mall in America of sales per square foot, which I'll just say what it is because I it's it's Ball Harbor in Miami.
00:17:48.319 --> 00:17:48.960
Would not have gone.
00:17:49.200 --> 00:17:50.319
Yeah, I go there all the time.
00:17:51.440 --> 00:17:53.839
That does$3,000 a square foot.
00:17:54.079 --> 00:17:55.200
Big number.
00:17:55.920 --> 00:17:59.279
The next one is Ala Moana, which is what I thought the number one was.
00:17:59.440 --> 00:17:59.599
Right.
00:17:59.759 --> 00:18:00.480
But that's pretty close.
00:18:00.559 --> 00:18:03.839
It's$2,500 square feet or$2,500 a square foot.
00:18:04.079 --> 00:18:07.200
And we visited that recently during a horrific storm.
00:18:07.519 --> 00:18:08.319
I contributed$12,000.
00:18:08.640 --> 00:18:10.640
When I say we, it's the three of us.
00:18:10.880 --> 00:18:11.680
What an experience.
00:18:12.000 --> 00:18:13.119
The food court was incredible.
00:18:13.359 --> 00:18:13.680
Epic.
00:18:13.920 --> 00:18:16.400
That food court actually is like 100,000 square feet.
00:18:16.480 --> 00:18:16.960
It's unbelievable.
00:18:17.119 --> 00:18:18.319
How about the food court in the garage?
00:18:18.559 --> 00:18:20.559
Yeah, so where do you find that?
00:18:20.880 --> 00:18:22.960
Forum shops in Vegas is another one.
00:18:23.039 --> 00:18:25.119
So those are kind of the high water mark.
00:18:25.200 --> 00:18:29.680
Now, Fashion Place is the number one mall in Utah, as you guys mentioned.
00:18:29.839 --> 00:18:31.680
What does that do per square foot?
00:18:32.000 --> 00:18:32.960
1,200.
00:18:33.119 --> 00:18:36.400
I'm going no, I'm not even going to try to do that.
00:18:36.559 --> 00:18:38.160
800 to 1,000 bucks a square foot.
00:18:38.400 --> 00:18:38.640
All right.
00:18:38.720 --> 00:18:39.680
So it's still pretty strong.
00:18:39.759 --> 00:18:47.759
I remember when I started in uh commercial real estate however many decades ago, people would throw around Fashion Place like breaking 400 bucks.
00:18:48.079 --> 00:18:50.880
I was gonna say 450 was a big number.
00:18:51.200 --> 00:18:55.039
I remember that number being quoted by GGP back in the day.
00:18:55.279 --> 00:18:58.240
Yeah, if you strip out inflation, I don't even know what the growth is.
00:18:58.319 --> 00:19:00.000
But look at Fashion Place.
00:19:00.079 --> 00:19:01.680
Like Fashion Place has come so far.
00:19:01.759 --> 00:19:05.680
It's always been the greatest real estate, it's always been the number one mall in the in the state.
00:19:05.839 --> 00:19:08.319
But even then, like they've done an incredible job.
00:19:08.400 --> 00:19:08.640
Yeah.
00:19:08.799 --> 00:19:11.759
And it's it's pretty much 100% occupied.
00:19:11.920 --> 00:19:12.720
Yeah, for sure.
00:19:13.039 --> 00:19:18.160
Do we count the little pop-up type retailers in our mall occupancy?
00:19:18.400 --> 00:19:18.799
I don't know.
00:19:18.960 --> 00:19:20.640
Because it's always a little bit of a mystery.
00:19:20.720 --> 00:19:23.839
You know, you walk through a mall and everything looks full.
00:19:24.000 --> 00:19:26.640
And you wonder, are these real tenants?
00:19:27.440 --> 00:19:28.000
What's going on?
00:19:28.880 --> 00:19:29.920
That's the interesting part about it.
00:19:30.640 --> 00:19:43.359
Because I go to fashion place every once in a while, and there's still it feels a little like walking back in time, even though it has been, you know, it's got plenty of facelifts and it is indoor-outdoor facing, and they've got all the new tenants.
00:19:43.519 --> 00:19:47.680
But there is a certain aspect of it where I feel like I'm 15 years old again walking now.
00:19:48.000 --> 00:19:48.799
Kind of feels the same.
00:19:49.039 --> 00:19:50.160
Yes, it really does.
00:19:50.559 --> 00:19:54.799
Like it no matter how many times they do the facelift, sometimes it still just feels tired.
00:19:54.880 --> 00:19:55.920
It feels like a mall.
00:19:57.039 --> 00:19:59.039
And like wildly therapeutic.
00:19:59.279 --> 00:19:59.519
Yes.
00:20:01.200 --> 00:20:02.160
Let's go pierce our yeah.
00:20:02.319 --> 00:20:03.279
Yeah, exactly.
00:20:03.599 --> 00:20:06.400
Simon Property Group is the number one mall owner in America.
00:20:06.480 --> 00:20:11.119
They own 200 plus malls, most of them class A, 180 million square feet.
00:20:11.279 --> 00:20:12.480
Brookfield, number two.
00:20:12.559 --> 00:20:14.160
They own 130 malls.
00:20:14.319 --> 00:20:18.400
So it's been a lot of consolidation in that, those two companies.
00:20:18.640 --> 00:20:20.799
Um, you guys touched on City Creek before.
00:20:21.039 --> 00:20:24.240
City Creek is a very, very successful mall.
00:20:24.559 --> 00:20:32.799
Many of those retailers are not open on Sunday, which probably hurts its per square foot sales, but it's an incredible mall, beautiful.
00:20:33.039 --> 00:20:37.200
Um if you haven't been there, obviously one to take a look at.
00:20:37.440 --> 00:20:44.000
But that's my mall pitch on why malls are better than they've been in many, many decades.
00:20:44.319 --> 00:20:45.200
That's a pretty good pitch.
00:20:45.440 --> 00:20:47.119
Do we ever see a new mall?
00:20:47.440 --> 00:20:48.720
In the traditional sense.
00:20:48.880 --> 00:20:50.960
I'm not talking a lifestyle center or anything like that.
00:20:51.200 --> 00:20:51.920
That's my question.
00:20:52.240 --> 00:20:53.279
Does that ever happen again?
00:20:53.519 --> 00:20:54.000
I don't know.
00:20:54.319 --> 00:21:01.440
Like a fully enclosed three anchors and everything in between.
00:21:02.000 --> 00:21:08.960
So I think the problem, the answer is probably not, but I'm trying to think of why the answer is probably not.
00:21:09.039 --> 00:21:26.319
And it's because by the time growth happens in today's world, like on the fringes, say Saratoga Springs or wherever, so many power centers have been built before the mall can even come out of the ground that it's just they strip all of the major tenants away from a mall potential.
00:21:26.400 --> 00:21:27.039
That's my opinion.
00:21:27.119 --> 00:21:27.440
I don't know.
00:21:27.680 --> 00:21:32.319
What if Seg comes to us and and the proposal for the entertainment district is all enclosed?
00:21:32.480 --> 00:21:35.599
It's just like a mall attached to the Delta Center.
00:21:35.839 --> 00:21:43.119
We're gonna bring back David Busters, or not David Busters, what was the tenant that went bankrupt with TIs back in the day?
00:21:43.359 --> 00:21:47.119
Oh uh um they're they're out, they were at Southtown.
00:21:47.200 --> 00:21:47.279
Yeah.
00:21:47.440 --> 00:21:48.160
Oh no, no, no, no.
00:21:48.240 --> 00:21:51.200
You're thinking of uh oh, so that's Stephen Berry's?
00:21:51.359 --> 00:21:52.000
Yeah, Stephen Berry.
00:21:52.160 --> 00:21:53.519
We're gonna bring out Stephen Berry's.
00:21:53.759 --> 00:21:54.559
Yeah, yeah.
00:21:54.880 --> 00:21:59.359
Um no, I I think that I think the days of them all are are behind us, hopefully.
00:22:00.000 --> 00:22:02.559
But I do remember uh Tiff Tiffany.
00:22:02.720 --> 00:22:03.759
I think we're alone now.
00:22:03.839 --> 00:22:07.440
I think I think she performed in uh in a mall in Utah.
00:22:07.519 --> 00:22:09.039
It was one of her first live performances.
00:22:09.359 --> 00:22:10.079
And you were there.
00:22:10.319 --> 00:22:12.000
I think I I think I was there.
00:22:12.799 --> 00:22:14.400
I think we're alone now.
00:22:14.559 --> 00:22:15.119
Anyway.
00:22:15.440 --> 00:22:15.759
Thank you.
00:22:16.000 --> 00:22:16.640
Take us back.
00:22:16.960 --> 00:22:17.519
Alrighty.
00:22:17.680 --> 00:22:20.000
This is non-real estate topic.
00:22:20.160 --> 00:22:22.240
And let me lay out for a second here.
00:22:22.480 --> 00:22:27.599
So sports betting has become synonymous with sports.
00:22:28.079 --> 00:22:30.960
They do not, it it no longer is a separate topic, right?
00:22:31.519 --> 00:22:32.400
Can we name this real quick?
00:22:32.559 --> 00:22:33.920
This is Jonathan's Picks.
00:22:34.079 --> 00:22:34.960
This is Jonathan's picks.
00:22:35.359 --> 00:22:35.920
I will get to my books.
00:22:36.240 --> 00:22:37.279
Welcome to Jonathan's Picks.
00:22:37.519 --> 00:22:38.720
This is first Jonathan's recording.
00:22:38.880 --> 00:22:41.440
You've listened this far in, now you get Jonathan's picks.
00:22:41.680 --> 00:22:42.559
Jonathan's locks.
00:22:42.880 --> 00:22:43.839
So it's pervasive.
00:22:44.000 --> 00:22:45.440
You can't listen to a talk show.
00:22:45.519 --> 00:22:46.640
You can't watch a game.
00:22:46.799 --> 00:22:48.079
You can't go to an arena.
00:22:48.240 --> 00:22:52.559
You can't do anything without sports betting being either the advertiser.
00:22:54.400 --> 00:22:58.400
Every sports show talks about it, the line, how does this affect the line?
00:22:58.559 --> 00:22:58.960
Everything else.
00:22:59.200 --> 00:22:59.680
Right.
00:23:00.079 --> 00:23:04.799
And with that, there have been a lot of really negative, unintended consequences.
00:23:04.960 --> 00:23:05.519
We've seen them.
00:23:05.599 --> 00:23:14.480
We've seen three separate occasions in the NBA of what are now being treated in the federal courts as insider trading, guys betting on themselves.
00:23:14.720 --> 00:23:17.680
We've seen it in NCAA football.
00:23:17.839 --> 00:23:20.240
We've seen it in golf.
00:23:20.640 --> 00:23:27.440
And we've seen it across the board a really, really negative impact on sports.
00:23:27.599 --> 00:23:30.640
And I think we all are relatively big sports fans here.
00:23:30.799 --> 00:23:33.200
And it is hard to separate the two.
00:23:34.559 --> 00:23:53.440
And the reason I bring it up is there are now these uh market groups out there, polymarket and calci, where you can do sports betting on it, but it's not considered sports betting because it's essentially futures trading, which I I would argue a sports betting is a futures trade.
00:23:53.680 --> 00:24:03.920
But you can now we've invited it into every aspect of our life, whether it be politics, entertainment, geopolitical conflicts.
00:24:04.160 --> 00:24:04.400
Right.
00:24:04.720
--> 00:24:07.200
You can set a market for anything you want.
00:24:07.839 --> 00:24:14.640
And the problem is, is the negativity it's brought to sports, now question the integrity of events.
00:24:14.880 --> 00:24:22.160
I don't know if you guys watched the President's Cup, but a guy shouted in the back swing of the opponent of Scotty Scheffler.
00:24:22.480 --> 00:24:32.079
And there have been many documented cases where golf is particularly susceptible to fan interaction affecting the outcome of the events.
00:24:32.319 --> 00:24:34.480
Yeah, Troy yelled at me once in my in his back seat.
00:24:34.799 --> 00:24:35.039
Exactly.
00:24:35.119 --> 00:24:38.240
We do it with our buddies on a$5 nine-hole bet.
00:24:38.400 --> 00:24:41.359
But we've now invited this into every aspect of our life.
00:24:41.519 --> 00:24:44.079
And my question is, why have we done this?
00:24:44.240 --> 00:24:45.759
Who is asking for this?
00:24:46.079 --> 00:24:47.440
I genuinely am curious.
00:24:48.480 --> 00:24:51.839
It's at the touch of your finger at all times.
00:24:52.799 --> 00:24:56.559
Sports betting addiction is already a huge, huge problem.
00:24:56.880 --> 00:24:59.519
And we've now just invited it to every aspect of our life.
00:24:59.759 --> 00:25:01.920
You don't have to wait for a game to start anymore.
00:25:02.079 --> 00:25:07.759
You can bet on the over-under of a rotten tomato score of a movie you and I will never watch.
00:25:08.000 --> 00:25:09.519
And I'm talking volumes.
00:25:09.599 --> 00:25:12.240
You can look it up on Calcian's in the millions.
00:25:12.960 --> 00:25:17.039
People are betting over and under a score of 85 on a movie that's going to come out.
00:25:17.440 --> 00:25:19.440
Are you a are you a sports better or I don't know?
00:25:19.519 --> 00:25:19.920
Not at all.
00:25:20.160 --> 00:25:20.400
Yeah.
00:25:20.559 --> 00:25:26.400
I mean, this is this is a giant issue right now that is so hard for me to understand.
00:25:26.559 --> 00:25:27.759
I understand betting.
00:25:27.920 --> 00:25:34.240
That's fine, but it's I was at a at a Utah football game with a guy, a younger guy who we all know.
00:25:34.319 --> 00:25:35.519
I'm not gonna say his name.
00:25:35.759 --> 00:25:36.880
And I'll say it.
00:25:36.960 --> 00:25:38.720
And he was like, Do you use sports better?
00:25:38.799 --> 00:25:40.160
I was like, I don't even know what you're saying.
00:25:40.319 --> 00:25:42.559
And he's like, Weird, we'll use mine.
00:25:42.799 --> 00:25:46.960
And I can't even remember what the one was, but whatever it was.
00:25:47.200 --> 00:25:47.920
DraftKings.
00:25:48.000 --> 00:25:48.960
It was DraftKings or something.
00:25:49.279 --> 00:25:50.000
I can't remember.
00:25:50.160 --> 00:25:53.440
But anyway, we he puts$300 in.
00:25:53.599 --> 00:26:02.720
He does like this weird parlay bet where it's like, if Utah wins by four and this guy has 12 rushing yards more than like it was like five string bets.
00:26:02.960 --> 00:26:07.440
He's
like, look, dude, if we win this, we're gonna make$43,000.
00:26:08.079 --> 00:26:11.759
I was like, dude, you're not gonna win five bets in a row.
00:26:11.920 --> 00:26:15.119
I know enough about betting to know that is a 0% chance.
00:26:15.359 --> 00:26:16.160
But he did win.
00:26:16.400 --> 00:26:17.519
No, we did not win.
00:26:17.839 --> 00:26:18.720
He did not win.
00:26:19.039 --> 00:26:20.880
There was no good moral to the story.
00:26:21.119 --> 00:26:27.920
And in addition, now betters take out their vitriol on the athletes on who they're betting, right?
00:26:28.079 --> 00:26:36.319
It just creates all that more negativity, more incentive to be more raucous at the game, say worse things at the game.
00:26:36.480 --> 00:26:42.480
We have plenty of experience with that in the jazz arena with um Russell Westbrook.
00:26:43.440 --> 00:26:48.400
He had multiple issues with fans, but it gets worse and worse and worse.
00:26:48.720 --> 00:26:53.039
And again, to your point, it's live game betting in the game.
00:26:53.680 --> 00:26:55.440
And that's just sports betting.
00:26:55.680 --> 00:26:57.119
It's now every aspect of life.
00:26:57.440 --> 00:26:58.880
You can set a market right now.
00:27:00.160 --> 00:27:03.519
By the way, you could then influence the outcome of the market ideas right now.
00:27:03.599 --> 00:27:04.799
I'm gonna set a market for this podcast.
00:27:05.119 --> 00:27:09.680
How much will Troy Hardy make in gross commission dollars between now and the I'm on the under.
00:27:09.839 --> 00:27:11.279
Whatever the market is, I'm on the under.
00:27:11.440 --> 00:27:12.319
No, here's the deal.
00:27:12.400 --> 00:27:22.799
I the the thing that I kind of like see through all this is this idea that things are more enjoyable when you have a little skin in the game, right?
00:27:22.960 --> 00:27:32.480
And what it's done is it's taken, it's sucked out the joy of everything for a certain segment of our population.
00:27:32.640 --> 00:27:38.720
There, there are there are individuals I know who don't want to watch a sporting event unless they have money on the game.
00:27:38.880 --> 00:27:40.799
There's just there's no there's they're not interested in it.
00:27:41.039 --> 00:27:42.400
There's like no adrenaline anymore.
00:27:42.720 --> 00:27:48.319
So so as you address, like this, this now leaves sports and it goes into the into life, right?
00:27:48.480 --> 00:27:48.799
Right.
00:27:48.960 --> 00:27:52.640
So at what point are we betting on everything?
00:27:52.799 --> 00:27:53.279
We're there now.
00:27:53.519 --> 00:27:54.319
I think he's saying we're there.
00:27:54.960 --> 00:27:55.519
We are there.
00:27:55.680 --> 00:27:56.240
We are there now.
00:27:56.480 --> 00:27:57.039
This is crazy.
00:27:57.200 --> 00:28:03.759
So so then it's okay, so so I can see how it would affect an adult person, man or woman.
00:28:03.839 --> 00:28:07.920
I'm sure there are many very addicted women out there in sports betting.
00:28:08.160
--> 00:28:14.319
But imagine the impact this has on a 13-year-old kid who has access to this app.
00:28:14.559 --> 00:28:15.759
I know this is happening.
00:28:15.920 --> 00:28:17.279
He's betting on games.
00:28:17.440 --> 00:28:19.359
Maybe it's$5,$10, whatever.
00:28:19.440 --> 00:28:26.000
But but when you were 12 or 13 years old, you went to you went to a sporting event because it was fun to be at the event.
00:28:26.079 --> 00:28:27.200
It was fun to be at the game.
00:28:27.279 --> 00:28:27.440
Yeah.
00:28:27.599 --> 00:28:29.039
It was fun to cheer at the game.
00:28:29.200 --> 00:28:31.440
It's not because you had$20 on the game.
00:28:31.680 --> 00:28:36.079
And so, what does this do to the future of all athletics?
00:28:36.240 --> 00:28:38.079
Like professional, amateur, right?
00:28:38.160 --> 00:28:39.519
I mean, you can you can bet on anything.
00:28:39.839 --> 00:28:40.640
Anything you want.
00:28:40.799 --> 00:28:45.119
I mean, I could make a market for my son's six-year-old soccer game.
00:28:45.359 --> 00:28:49.359
Which we should do just in the interest of the money over.
00:28:49.440 --> 00:28:49.920
He's a demon.
00:28:50.079 --> 00:28:50.559
But isn't it?
00:28:50.640 --> 00:28:51.680
It's it's really sad.
00:28:51.839 --> 00:28:57.599
Like I think about the impact this will have on just individuals' ability to just enjoy things, right?
00:28:57.759 --> 00:29:03.440
I mean, I I have I I'll I'll I'll admit it, I've I've bet on a game and it didn't work out.
00:29:03.519 --> 00:29:07.359
And I was grumpy for a very long period of time after that game.
00:29:07.680 --> 00:29:11.359
But his second bet that he made that cured me of it.
00:29:11.759 --> 00:29:12.480
I was in college.
00:29:12.720 --> 00:29:14.079
Yeah, I mean, it's it's happened, right?
00:29:14.160 --> 00:29:19.599
And I remember though, like learning that lesson, like I'm not a nice person when I when I bet on sports.
00:29:19.680 --> 00:29:22.240
It actually changes it's almost like the best thing that happened to you.
00:29:22.319 --> 00:29:24.400
Imagine if you had gone on a win streak.
00:29:24.960 --> 00:29:26.640
Betters never lose, Chad.
00:29:26.720 --> 00:29:27.839
They never lose.
00:29:28.319 --> 00:29:28.799
That is true.
00:29:28.880 --> 00:29:29.599
We know a lot of those.
00:29:29.839 --> 00:29:30.480
I'm kidding.
00:29:30.640 --> 00:29:34.559
Um, but yeah, imagine if it had made me a a a happier person.
00:29:34.720 --> 00:29:36.079
Maybe I should try again.
00:29:36.240 --> 00:29:37.599
No, I'm not, I'm out.
00:29:37.759 --> 00:29:38.160
I'm out.
00:29:38.400 --> 00:29:40.960
Yeah, I just don't think you can put the genie back in the bottle.
00:29:41.039 --> 00:29:46.000
It's sad, but it's a real, I think, negative on society.
00:29:46.319 --> 00:29:58.319
And I think, especially with younger people, younger uh men, they're just almost everyone I know that's in that 15 to 30 year old demographic sports bets.
00:29:58.720 --> 00:30:00.160
They have the app on their phones.
00:30:00.640 --> 00:30:03.119
It's it's it's being shoved down their throat.
00:30:03.440 --> 00:30:05.359
Yeah, and it's impossible.
00:30:05.440 --> 00:30:08.880
It's like a bunch of people who are prone to alcoholism.
00:30:09.039 --> 00:30:15.279
Let's get a full bar in the public library and at their kids' school, and everywhere you walk, there's a bar right there.
00:30:15.599 --> 00:30:15.920
Yeah.
00:30:16.319 --> 00:30:17.759
There's a sign on to your point.
00:30:18.000 --> 00:30:19.200
I don't know how we ever put it back in.
00:30:21.039 --> 00:30:21.599
But it's hard.
00:30:21.759 --> 00:30:31.039
The the cow she's of the world are hard because they do they do slide in under the sports betting as a futures commodities trading as well.
00:30:31.279 --> 00:30:35.359
What's the difference between that and actually trading like futures on the stock market or something?
00:30:35.759 --> 00:30:36.559
They're technicalities.
00:30:36.640 --> 00:30:44.559
You're basically buying a position as opposed to placing a bet, but because then you can then sell or buy additional positions.
00:30:44.880 --> 00:30:50.480
I'm just saying, like, if I'm arguing, like what how I would say, well, you're out there buying options on stocks.
00:30:50.640 --> 00:30:50.880
Right.
00:30:51.039 --> 00:30:51.920
What's the difference?
00:30:52.160 --> 00:30:52.720
Exactly.
00:30:52.880 --> 00:30:53.279
Yeah.
00:30:53.519 --> 00:30:56.240
But the SEC agreed that it is not sports betting.
00:30:56.319 --> 00:30:56.720
Yeah, it's really.
00:30:56.960 --> 00:30:58.880
Even though it's on sporting events.
00:30:59.200 --> 00:31:02.000
I just think it has such a horrific impact on kids.
00:31:02.319 --> 00:31:02.720
Agreed.
00:31:03.039 --> 00:31:04.960
It will create problems.
00:31:05.279 --> 00:31:10.160
But it'll give us the ability to set lines for younger and younger age groups, which is, I guess, the positive.
00:31:10.559 --> 00:31:13.759
So anyway, I like the Jazz's over win total this year.
00:31:14.079 --> 00:31:14.559
I do like that.
00:31:14.720 --> 00:31:16.720
So what's the win win-loss total for the Jazz?
00:31:16.880 --> 00:31:17.359
You're on the over?
00:31:17.599 --> 00:31:18.079
I'm on the O.
00:31:18.319 --> 00:31:18.400
Okay.
00:31:18.480 --> 00:31:18.880
I like the O.
00:31:19.039 --> 00:31:19.200
All right.
00:31:19.680 --> 00:31:20.480
Playing to win.
00:31:20.720 --> 00:31:22.319
How many games do we win this year?
00:31:22.559 --> 00:31:23.119
Jazz.
00:31:24.319 --> 00:31:25.440
46.
00:31:25.680 --> 00:31:26.319
Oh, okay.
00:31:26.480 --> 00:31:28.319
So we're going 500 plus.
00:31:28.400 --> 00:31:29.440
No, what are you?
00:31:29.599 --> 00:31:30.720
What's your what's your pick?
00:31:31.039 --> 00:31:33.680
I'm gonna, yeah, I think that's is this a 50-win team?
00:31:33.839 --> 00:31:37.839
I mean, it's injury dependent, but injury if we're healthy, I think it's 45 plus.
00:31:37.920 --> 00:31:38.160
Yeah.
00:31:38.400 --> 00:31:39.759
Feels that feels that way.
00:31:40.319 --> 00:31:45.279
Well, we'll uh we'll put a bookmark on this and we'll check back in in uh in a few months.
00:31:45.440 --> 00:31:46.640
Yeah, if we remember.
00:31:46.880 --> 00:31:48.079
We might be too interested.
00:31:48.319 --> 00:31:48.640
That's true.
00:31:48.799 --> 00:31:50.640
We're distracted by the sports betting.
00:31:51.200 --> 00:31:52.160
Already am.
00:31:52.559 --> 00:31:54.559
Guys, thank you for your time.
00:31:54.720 --> 00:31:58.240
Thank you for swinging by for the Commission Impossible.
00:31:58.319 --> 00:32:04.319
Thank you, everybody, for listening to Commission Impossible and uh hope to see you on the next one.
00:32:04.480 --> 00:32:04.799
Thanks.
00:32:05.039 --> 00:32:06.240
Thanks for having me.