Transcrição completa de FINAL NFL WEEK 8 Bets: Raiders-Jets, Cardinals-Cowboys and more

00:03:08 Speaker 4: We know what we're betting into here, but I don't think we'll realize how bad of a number they're betting into on this Raiders side. This should be closer to minus two and a half, minus three. And they're just betting plus one and a half because they think it's a good number. It's just, it's a bad bet. 00:03:22 Speaker 1: Let's set a line on the number of times we're going to have to talk about bad decisions made by Aaron Glenn in the final two minutes of the first half or the game when we are back on the air later tonight at 7.30 and he's got a towel wrapped around his neck and his glasses and he's this crazy mix of professorial and madman because he doesn't know what to do in the final two minutes and that's going to cost us, I think it's like two and a half is the number of times we might mention it later tonight. 00:03:58 Speaker 2: That's what I'm thinking. 00:04:01 Speaker 4: He's terrible, but it's like we said, it's a nice spot for this Jets team to bounce back. 00:04:07 Speaker 2: Well, let's hope so. 00:04:09 Speaker 1: Unlike the Jets, Simon, the Cleveland Browns, plus three and a half at Pittsburgh, We may be walking into it in this one in a different way because everybody on the public side loves the Browns. Money continues to come in on Pittsburgh. It's why this number has stubbornly stayed at 3.5%. I like the Browns for a lot of different reasons here. I like the Browns because I like the number at 3.5%. 00:04:40 Speaker 3: It was at 4%. 00:04:41 Speaker 1: It moved to 3.5%. off of professional moves early in the week. I also just like the matchup. I think there's good coaches at every level, defensive coordinator, Patrick Graham for the Steelers. I think Mike McCarthy has been doing a great job adjusting the Steelers. But I think what the Browns have done and the way Todd Munkin is managing these games, especially in the fourth quarter, when you keep doing it week after week, it's not flukish. It's because you know your personnel and you understand how to adjust in game. So I just like getting the hook here in addition to sort of some of the on-the-field matchups. But it does concern me that there continues to be some professional pushback on the Steelers. 00:05:23 Speaker 4: Yeah, because they're expecting what I'm honestly expecting, which is the shooter drop on this Browns team. I told you they did the exact same thing last week. They were hammering Tennessee all week. And you could say it did take a miracle for Cleveland, right? It took a crazy fourth down stop, which they were about to be down 21 points. And they got that stop and Watson brought them all the way back against Tennessee. 00:05:45 Speaker 3: And we're basically better. I'm going to do it again. 00:05:47 Speaker 4: That's, I mean, the books are taking a stand with the, with the pros here. Like this, they're basically saying this, they're going to win this game by four points or a touchdown. Like they're, they're really taking a hard stand here. So yeah, it's a game. If we want to talk ourselves out of switching it out, I would be okay with it. Cause like you said, it's, it's no different than the Raiders. It's a very public side. And you know, this Cleveland side, I, I was much higher on earlier in the week as the week has gone along. I've, I'm like, you have heard a lot of the noise of, I'm probably too low on this Pittsburgh team here, but yeah, I just, I can't get over it. It just feels like too big of a number where we've already had these two teams play. It was a really close game and the travel, I can't get over enough. 00:06:27 Speaker 3: We have the data, we've looked at it. It's a real thing. 00:06:30 Speaker 4: These guys who come back from Europe and don't take a bye week, they're always sluggish in the second half and they tend to play very close games. 00:06:36 Speaker 3: So I'm trying to find a way out of this one. I really am. It's just like last week with that, the chiefs in Seattle. 00:06:42 Speaker 4: I feel like we know we're doing something wrong here, but we know that as a percentage of time, this side is right. And that's what I'm trying to hedge here. It's like, you can't always be on the sharp side. And yeah, we're very much so on the public side here with the Cleveland Browns. 00:06:54 Speaker 1: Well, it's interesting you're saying that because I do think we're going to have to make some decisions. 00:06:58 Speaker 2: As everybody knows, we do this. 00:07:01 Speaker 1: Our final five picks are based on the contest, Sharper Square contest. And you can start making your picks in the contest Tuesday, of the week when the games are being played. So we put in picks on Thursday just as placeholders to try to get the best of the numbers. There's one game in which the number has moved against us. And so if we decide to take Cleveland out, we're going to have to make a call on whether or not we like the other game so much and the number we got in that game. We're going to get to it in a second. But first, Minnesota at Detroit. Another one, this was Simon Says. I've bet it at three and a half. Like the Browns, I'm not nearly as confident. 00:07:46 Speaker 2: As I was early in the week. 00:07:49 Speaker 1: We've talked about the Jared Goff versus the Blitz stuff. We're really banking on Kevin O'Connell getting something right with his Kyler Murray offense and being able to take advantage of what has been a bad Lions defense. Brian Branch makes a difference in that defensive backfield to me. 00:08:11 Speaker 2: It's another one. 00:08:12 Speaker 1: Like the number is finally trending towards lions minus three. I don't, I can't tell if that's because professionals are finally coming in on Minnesota or Minnesota is just such an overwhelming public dog that bookmakers feel like they have to start moving the number. 00:08:27 Speaker 4: I don't know how much of a public dog it is just because most shops I've talked to, it's all lions money and the public, like anytime

they go to minus. 00:08:36 Speaker 3: Three, it's been hammered lions money. So. 00:08:40 Speaker 4: I would say it's definitely more public side. I honestly thought more prominent would it be on Minnesota just because we've talked about it. It's a lot to give a hook to this team where Detroit, as good as they've been this year, they're not this game wrecking type of team like they used to be. They're a team that plays teams very close and yeah, branches obviously an upgrade to their secondary, but it's, it's not like Minnesota's defense offense has been lighting it up. So, we're really basing this bet on the defense. Honestly, we need, we're, we're expecting Calgary to play better, but this is really a better once again on the Vikings defense, which is basically my view coming into this season. And I look at this Detroit team is yeah. Could they roll this Vikings team? We're totally prepared for that. They're obviously due for a loss, but we've said last week, they probably should have lost, but they're so well coached. Their defense is so good. They just, they keep them in these games. They shouldn't really be in. And, We've all seen that stat, right, that their first team to be 6-0 with 10 touchdowns or fewer since the 1930s. They're a total outlier, not only team. Yeah, it's another line that if you want to talk us out of it, we can. But this week, I'm on basically all the plus 3.5 dogs. 00:09:49 Speaker 3: So am I. 00:09:50 Speaker 4: And that's just the way it's broken. Obviously, that's not a position you always want to be in. But it's like this game, it just feels unavoidable. Like if it was minus three all week on Detroit or minus two and a half, I could have been talking to Detroit, but with the hook, which is still available out there, still some three and a halves out there. 00:10:07 Speaker 3: I'm never going to avoid this on the Vikings. There's just too much value on a team that I expect to show up in this position. 00:10:13 Speaker 2: Yeah, it is strange. 00:10:15 Speaker 1: I am like you Cleveland three and a half, Minnesota three and a half, We were obviously on Carolina three and a half. There's one more three and a half meatball that's hanging out there that we're going to get to right after I tell you guys that our closing time trade of the week presented by Polymarket is going to be Arizona Cardinals trading at seven and a half at Dallas at 52% on. 00:10:50 Speaker 2: Polymarket. 00:10:52 Speaker 1: This is an interesting one. It was at six and a half for a lot of the week. Then it got up to seven. It's now at seven and a half in our contest, which is great news. Neither of us were impressed with Dallas in the win over Philly. The Cardinals didn't look great against Denver, but I do think that Dallas's defense is so inferior to that we are going to get to fade the perception on this one. For what it's worth, Jeremiah Love actually is going to play in this game, but I think it's going to be hard for us to avoid Arizona at 7.5. 00:11:32 Speaker 3: Yeah, we're expecting some games to have a huge upset, right? 00:11:37 Speaker 4: Everyone and their grandmoms teasing this Rams team, this Dallas team. They're teasing the Patriots down, like the Moneyline bets, all the parlays, all these guys I've talked to. It's just like we need some big upset today, and this just– this, this game jumps out. 00:11:51 Speaker 3: It's the same. I feel about, I know you're not as much in love with. 00:11:53 Speaker 4: Miami, but these two games for the exact same, just total huge dogs against teams that probably a little, you know, overrated right now by the general public and the masses. And this Dallas team is great as they looked against the Eagles. You really needed a perfect game from Dak and that run game for them to kind of blow out that Eagles team who look like they'd get up in the season. The Cardinals, they do not look like a team that's given up on this season. 00:12:16 Speaker 3: They play hard. 00:12:17 Speaker 1: Yeah. 00:12:17 Speaker 3: Um, Yeah. I'm, I'm really excited. This has got back to seven and a half. 00:12:22 Speaker 4: I'm honestly shocked because the money basically kept this down low all week. And yeah, I just got to bet into that movement and could it burn or sure, but I will take this value every time I can on a line that moves our way, our direction. 00:12:35 Speaker 2: I'm shocked. 00:12:35 Speaker 1: And that's a lot of late money coming in on the Cardinals because even when I logged on this morning and looked in the contest, the Cardinals line was six and a half. So yeah, Only in the last couple hours in the contest has the line gone up to seven and a half. 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And Sweat picks together every Sunday in the Polymarket app. So download the Polymarket app today and use SHARP when you sign up. That's SHARP to get $ 25 free after you deposit just $ 10. 00:14:00 Speaker 2: Baltimore at Buffalo. 00:14:02 Speaker 1: One of the real pro-jo games on the board today. Wise guys on Baltimore, public on Buffalo. Just in the past 24 hours, though, it's

interesting. I've seen it aggressively bouncing back and forth, back and forth, back and forth between the three and the three and a half. We know Lamar is playing. We talked about the three and a half that we love this week. Brother, this one is just hard to avoid. It's hard to not want to be on Lamar Jackson as a three and a half point underdog. 00:14:32 Speaker 4: Yeah, especially when we– it's the same thing with the Holmes last week. We can't avoid them as dogs, and it's because we have all the data and the records from past performances, which Lamar 10-5 straight up as a dog. So it's a guy that he rarely is a dog, but he overperforms as another dog. I would say the pushback most pros I know betting the Bills side is they don't think the Ravens are a playoff team. They think this is a bad team and a poorly coached team. 00:14:56 Speaker 3: So they got doubters now. 00:14:58 Speaker 4: I mean, the Ravens, their excuse was, well, Lamar hasn't been playing I think there's a lot of really smart guys out there just like, no, this isn't a Lamar problem. This is a culture, a team problem right now with the Ravens. And we're really banking on the opposite of it, where it's Lamar, he raises all the talent around him, and this Bill's defense is so bad. Going back and re-watching some of the tape, it's just, how is Zay Flowers not sprinting open for easy catches and receptions? Like, how are there not options for Lamar to bail out on if he gets outside the pocket? They don't have anyone that can keep up with them. I mean, most teams don't, obviously, but They don't have any type of freak athletes, especially the DN position that can really trap Lamar. And so it is, it's a, it's a weird line because I really thought it'd be two and a half by now. And luckily it is the type of thing where Chad's talking about where he gets to three. There's so much money hitting the bills, like between the public and the professionals alike that most shops keep moving it back to three and a half, which someone like me, I'm going to keep taking that value. So yeah, it's another line. Like you said, we can't avoid it's a plus three and a half against a bad defense with Lamar. 00:15:59 Speaker 3: I have to take that number. 00:16:01 Speaker 1: Well, like you, I keep looking at, when I look at this game and I think about Zay Flowers, he has been so dominant when he has played with Lamar, even when he hasn't. The guy is just so crafty in getting open and so fast in breaking down defenses, especially splitting safeties, that I don't know how the Bills don't give up one or two massive plays that are game changers here on the defensive side. I think, you know, Wink Martindale, who was the former defensive coordinator there, just talking this week and going off about how there's a lack of leadership on the defensive side. Nobody's stepping up. That's been sort of an epidemic for that team. I think that's what you're referring to. That's what wise guys are thinking about. Not his

comments, but just what they're starting to see for this team. 00:16:53 Speaker 2: So that's the scary part. 00:16:55 Speaker 1: But you can't hide the tape for the Buffalo Bills on defense anymore. They're just not very good right now. Those are the five we're focused on. Cleveland, Minnesota, Arizona, Baltimore, the New York Jets. Lingering out there, you mentioned Miami plus seven and a half at New England. That one had dipped down to seven. It had gotten to six and a half. This morning, a lot of money coming in on New England. It's back up to seven and a half. I'm dolphin curious, but you're dolphin committed. 00:17:40 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm just simply playing the spot. 00:17:42 Speaker 4: And if you want to take the Zach position where you're back in New England here, I totally understand it. Where if you're looking for the perfect condition, this is it, right? It's a bad weather game and it's a 4 p.m. 00:17:54 Speaker 3: Starts. 00:17:55 Speaker 4: You're not going to have the sun eating up this New England side. And you're also as much as you want to make fun of Drake May having small hands, whatever you want to say, he's less likely to continue to turn the ball over fumbling wise than you would say for Miami. And I just view that both these teams don't protect the ball particularly well, more so New England. Like they have a running back issues holding on the ball. Now you're adding in, that's supposed to be a tsunami here. And now it's up to seven and a half. Like I, this is what I've done. 00:18:18 Speaker 3: Same thing with Arizona. It's what I dreamt about. 00:18:20 Speaker 4: Get me to seven and a half bad weather game, divisional game, New England's curse, especially when they go down to Miami. It's, It's everything I could hope for. But like the biggest pause for me here would just simply be Drake may does beat up on bad teams. And so does, you know, this defense in new England. So like, this is where we make no qualms about it. We know my name is a bad team, but I still think they're undervalued general public. Like I can't believe this is seven and a half truly. Cause it's, this is going to be one too, where I'll adjust my model, a huge amount off this game. I have this game at four and a half. So yeah, that's what I. 00:18:54 Speaker 3: Was just speaking about. It's like, I can't believe I'm getting three points of value on a team. 00:18:58 Speaker 4: In miami that i get it people are so scared off but they're not bad i keep trying to smack people it's an nfl team they have nfl guys on this roster like my biggest issue with them will always be the consistency all offensively right it's just i don't know what i'm getting from a league from game to game and that's that's why he's not a top 15 top 20 quarterback in this league that's just the way it is but um i i just can't get over how big this number has grown to and Yeah, the weather, it's going to affect three games today in Florida. Like it's bad thunderstorms for all these games, a ton of rain for all these games. So this is just another game where I think it's moved a certain way just because it's just so much public money right now in New England. 00:19:35 Speaker 3: Most shops I talk to, they're getting 90% of the money is on New England. 00:19:38 Speaker 4: Between the straight number and the teasers and the parlays, it's even higher. 00:19:44 Speaker 3: It's 95%. So it is all all Patriots money right. 00:19:46 Speaker 1: Now these aren't on the script right now Matt Mitchell so I'm throwing you for a loop but rain in Florida Jacksonville massive massive favorite and then you've got the Bucs two and a half over the Falcons both teams leaning into the run that's where the advantage is But do we think the weather is a mitigating factor for Baker playing with a thumb that is still in recovery from the injury that he had had when you're playing in the rain like this? 00:20:25 Speaker 3: Yeah, it feels a little bit like a little bit of a nightmare, right? 00:20:27 Speaker 4: If you're playing in Baker, but he's already wearing the glove regardless to protect the thumb. So I don't know how much of a big of a deal it is that much because he's been practicing obviously all week with the glove on and Apparently, they've been doing wet ball training. They knew it was going to be a wet game, so they're obviously using wet balls in practice this week. That's another line where I get up, I think it was like 3.45, 4 o'clock in the morning, check the lines, and a ton of pro money came in on Atlanta. 00:20:54 Speaker 3: A bunch of books had gone to one and a half. Yeah, it's unfortunate. I'm still dug in on the books here, but. 00:21:02 Speaker 4: I get why guys are taking a position on Atlanta here, where there is going to be a lot more questions about Baker then more so than there are about Pennix right now. 00:21:09 Speaker 3: So that's, which is totally fair. Like we just, we have no idea how Baker's hand is healed. 00:21:13 Speaker 4: He's not really played football in a bunch of weeks. And last week we joked about it. He had seven completions, right? 00:21:19 Speaker 3: Seven of 11 or six of 11, whatever he was. It just, we have no idea. 00:21:23 Speaker 4: I have a read on it, but I just, another time where it's like, how do you not love this Bucks defense here, especially in the elements against the guy like Pennix, who has no mobility or at least Baker can give us some mobility in this weather. You get none of that from Pennix. So, Another game I'm just dugging in. I'm really dugging on the books here, and I think you're still getting a good number, especially if it moves down to minus one and a half. 00:21:43 Speaker 1: Last game I want to talk about before we finalize and make our hard choices. Kansas City at Denver. Denver is still a one and a half point underdog. The line is moving as if it's going to go down to one. Broncos are very clearly the sharp side here. I wrote a whole article for The Athletic this week

that indicates, shows with evidence, statistical evidence, That betting on Patrick Mahomes in this spot is a very bad idea. 00:22:12 Speaker 2: It is a losing proposition. 00:22:16 Speaker 1: I hate betting against Patrick Mahomes, but I did pull the trigger on the Broncos. The Chiefs are now without Mansour Delane and LeJarrius Sneed, their top two cornerbacks. And even then, Sneed was getting smoked left and right by the Seahawks. 00:22:36 Speaker 3: So.... 00:22:38 Speaker 2: We talked about it for a second. Do you like the Broncos here? 00:22:43 Speaker 1: Is this, should, should this be in the conversation to replace one of our teams in the final five? 00:22:50 Speaker 3: I'm the wrong guy. 00:22:50 Speaker 4: Like I got them in teasers, but I have more money on that. The loser Colts at 10 and a half than I do on the Broncos. 00:22:55 Speaker 1: Yeah. 00:22:57 Speaker 4: Like I have money invested in a teaser here at plus seven and a half, obviously in the Broncos, but I just haven't been back that much into it. So yeah, if you wanted to put this one in, I'm not going to fight you on it. Like I'm, I can tell you, I know groups are all over the Broncos. They're right there with Chad. They like the Broncos here. They think it's a good spot for them. And they're not drinking the Kool-Aid anymore of this Chiefs team where I told you I was very high on them going into last week. And obviously they got humbled, but I kind of throw that game out where it's like Seattle in that spot, they make teams look that way. And, you know, that was a bad Mahomes game. And that's my hesitation, which is Mahomes hasn't looked good this whole year. So that's why I'm not fighting you at all on this one. It's like, no, I bet into Denver. You can, you want to back them. 00:23:37 Speaker 3: I'll support it. 00:23:38 Speaker 4: But yeah, it's like you, it's never a good feeling to go against my homes when he's catching this group of points. 00:23:44 Speaker 1: I think we got to make a call on whether or not we're keeping Cleveland in or taking them out and putting. 00:23:51 Speaker 2: Miami in instead. 00:23:57 Speaker 1: I've been more confident about Miami and more comfortable with Miami all week. 00:24:00 Speaker 2: Than I have with Denver. especially if we're getting seven and a half. 00:24:04 Speaker 3: Exactly. That's why I'll do it. Seven and a half. 00:24:06 Speaker 4: It's like, I can't, I can't pass on. It's way too many points. And we might get burned by the weather, all that. And we're going to probably be eating it with Cleveland's up, you know, 14, nothing. It's like, of course this Pittsburgh team is super jet lagged or whatever. But yeah, I'm, I'm like you where it's, we just don't like being on the public side. That's our biggest bugaboo here. It's like, man, it's Chad knows it's everyone he talked to was on Cleveland. That's, that's the fear here. So yeah, I, I'm going to take that value just like you are at that 7.5. This week, we have a lot of numbers where we're just– we're going to die no matter what. Arizona, we're going to die on it. The Minnesota Vikings, like Chad said, 3.5. 00:24:41 Speaker 3: I'm going to die on it. Ravens, plus 3.5. 00:24:43 Speaker 4: They know what they're doing in the books. I'm going to take that every time. So this is no different. It's too many points. If it was 6.5, me and you could have talked our way out of this Miami game. But 7.5 now, full touchdown in the elements. 00:24:56 Speaker 3: Come on. Got to take it. 00:24:57 Speaker 4: I know. 00:24:58 Speaker 1: I know. We can– We know what we're doing. We're doing this eyes wide open here. We're taking a much worse team, a team that has been relatively less competitive, a team that just won. And we're taking a shot because it's a much bigger number on the hook instead of a team in the Browns. 00:25:19 Speaker 2: I get it. I totally get it. We're all in. That's fine. That's fine. 00:25:24 Speaker 1: So our final five are going. 00:25:27 Speaker 2: To be. 00:25:30 Speaker 1: Let me make sure I'm doing this right here. I think we're doing Minnesota plus three and a half. I think we're doing Miami plus seven and a half. Baltimore plus three and a half. New York Jets minus one and a half. Who am I missing there? Minnesota. 00:25:52 Speaker 2: Miami. 00:25:53 Speaker 3: Baltimore. 00:25:54 Speaker 2: Ravens. I got Ravens. 00:25:56 Speaker 3: And then you got Arizona. 00:25:59 Speaker 2: Arizona. 00:26:00 Speaker 1: Arizona. Arizona plus seven and a half. All right, Simon, give me your biggest bets right now as we wrap it up on Sunday morning. 00:26:11 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, everything on the board here. The Jets, what would really crush me today, if the Jets lose, obviously the Bucs lose, Arizona get blown out, and if Miami get blown out. Those four, those aren't really tied to me. The biggest one probably is... I'll go through my tickets. I'm assuming it's the Jets though. Like I've just been betting that all the way since Sunday night to this morning. Like I woke up and I bet a couple more because there are a couple of ones out there. So yeah, I can't believe it. But yeah, the Jets somehow ended up being one of my bigger bets this week. 00:26:39 Speaker 1: Simon, we have breaking news. I just logged into the contest to put in our picks. The Jets are now minus two and a half. They were one and a half when we came on the air in the contest. Now minus two and a half. Do we take them out? Do we put the Broncos in? Do we just roll with the Jets at two and a half? 00:27:02 Speaker 3: I just told you, I have to live with it, right? It's one of my bigger bets. 00:27:05 Speaker 4: That's unfortunate, but yeah, I guess we've got to take the two and a half. 00:27:09 Speaker 3: I'll own that if it lands on two. 00:27:11 Speaker 1: Well, also, I mean, I haven't seen lines like this move this quickly in our contest in this kind of window because the Broncos are down to a half. 00:27:22 Speaker 3: So. 00:27:24 Speaker 1: Clearly, we're seeing money come in on both of these sides in a weird way right now. But now we got the Jets minus two and a half. So our final five to reiterate. Let me make sure I got it right here. 00:27:43 Speaker 2: Your picks. 00:27:44 Speaker 1: Final five to reiterate. Jets minus two and a half. Minnesota plus three and a half. Arizona plus 7.5. Baltimore plus 3.5. New England plus 7.5. So New England last one in. 00:28:03 Speaker 2: Browns last one out. Man, nutty morning. 00:28:09 Speaker 1: Listen, we'll be back later tonight, 7.30 Eastern, live on Sharper Square YouTube with our instant NFL reactions as the late afternoon games begin. 00:28:21 Speaker 2: Wrap up. 00:28:22 Speaker 1: This has been Sharper Square presented by Polymarket, part of the Volume Podcast Network. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Download some Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. 00:28:32 Speaker 2: Rate, review, subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until tonight, love you. 00:28:38 Speaker 3: Super Bowl dreams that glowed in the summer sunshine flicker and fade in the autumn shadows. November can be cold and gray. November can be surly with bitter rain upon the world and winter coming early.