Transcrição completa de Are We Overlooking a MAJOR Factor in our Midterm Calculations??

00:02:35.279 uh, 101 00:02:35.479 --> 00:02:37.279 that might be a little bit of an understatement, 102 00:02:37.350 --> 00:02:38.779 but what I always say about polling, 103 00:02:39.000 --> 00:02:40.979 and this is something that it's important to understand, 104 00:02:41.350 --> 00:02:44.279 is that polling is not designed to be a surgical incident, 105 00:02:44.399 --> 00:02:44.559 uh, 106 00:02:44.570 --> 00:02:45.110 uh, 107 00:02:45.119 --> 00:02:45.720 instrument. 108 00:02:45.880 --> 00:02:48.240 It is designed to be a blunt instrument. 109 00:02:48.520 --> 00:02:49.419 It tells you 110 00:02:50.080 --> 00:02:50.550 very well, 111 00:02:50.559 --> 00:02:53.360 but the polls are really good at telling you general strokes, 112 00:02:53.470 --> 00:02:53.750 uh, 113 00:02:53.759 --> 00:02:54.919 broad strokes about the election, 114 00:02:55.080 --> 00:02:55.309 right? 115 00:02:55.520 --> 00:02:57.839 General themes about an election or a topic. 116 00:02:57.919 --> 00:02:58.800 They're very good at that. 117 00:02:59.210 --> 00:02:59.649 Um, 118 00:02:59.699 --> 00:03:05.179 they are not very good at surgical differences between two candidates at 48%. 119 00:03:05.539 --> 00:03:07.020 It's really hard for polls to do, 120 00:03:07.059 --> 00:03:08.580 and they don't do that very well. 121 00:03:08.889 --> 00:03:09.380 And we, 122 00:03:09.520 --> 00:03:09.610 uh, 123 00:03:09.660 --> 00:03:09.720 uh, 124 00:03:09.809 --> 00:03:13.970 as people who don't really care about the statistical background of polls, 125 00:03:14.020 --> 00:03:15.529 what we care about are the outcomes. 126 00:03:15.889 --> 00:03:16.880 Who's gonna win the race? 127 00:03:17.809 --> 00:03:18.570 For people who want, 128 00:03:19.130 --> 00:03:23.050 we are asking out of polls something that they're not really designed to give us. 129 00:03:23.570 --> 00:03:25.919 And we are constantly demanding these, 130 00:03:25.929 --> 00:03:26.160 uh, 131 00:03:26.169 --> 00:03:27.850 very intricate differences in, 132 00:03:27.910 --> 00:03:29.009 in races that are just, 133 00:03:29.089 --> 00:03:29.250 you know, 134 00:03:29.320 --> 00:03:29.479 it's, 135 00:03:29.539 --> 00:03:31.389 it's just not what polling does well. 136 00:03:32.050 --> 00:03:32.750 Can be good, 137 00:03:33.050 --> 00:03:33.850 but it isn't always. 138 00:03:34.169 --> 00:03:35.440 And you look at the polls right now, 139 00:03:35.570 --> 00:03:38.289 they're not very good if you happen to be a Republican or a conservative. 140 00:03:38.369 --> 00:03:39.690 If you are a Democrat or a liberal, 141 00:03:39.770 --> 00:03:41.039 you're loving the polls right now. 142 00:03:41.369 --> 00:03:43.410 You can't get enough polling content. 143 00:03:43.929 --> 00:03:44.610 So let me break, 144 00:03:44.729 --> 00:03:44.839 uh, 145 00:03:44.889 --> 00:03:46.289 there's two new polls out today. 146 00:03:46.759 --> 00:03:47.160 Uh, 147 00:03:47.630 --> 00:03:48.619 two pretty big ones 148 00:03:49.119 --> 00:03:49.460 that, 149 00:03:49.559 --> 00:03:50.110 um, 150 00:03:50.279 --> 00:03:52.880 that aren't about each individual race or more 151 00:03:52.880 --> 00:03:55.619 generally thematic of the race and talking about, 152 00:03:55.800 --> 00:03:57.399 is there a blue wave and how big will it be? 153 00:03:58.210 --> 00:03:59.289 Let me start off with this one. 154 00:03:59.369 --> 00:04:00.169 This is one of the, 155 00:04:00.279 --> 00:04:00.449 you know, 156 00:04:00.520 --> 00:04:01.610 the biggest pollsters out there, 157 00:04:01.729 --> 00:04:02.410 New York Times, 158 00:04:02.610 --> 00:04:03.589 Sienna College. 159 00:04:04.089 --> 00:04:04.610 Um, 160 00:04:05.210 --> 00:04:08.610 Democrats have a wide lead in our new poll as Trump slides. 161 00:04:08.789 --> 00:04:09.929 Part of the story here, 162 00:04:10.050 --> 00:04:10.330 of course, 163 00:04:10.410 --> 00:04:11.770 is Donald Trump and his approval rating, 164 00:04:11.850 --> 00:04:12.830 which is not very good. 165 00:04:12.970 --> 00:04:13.729 You may have heard, 166 00:04:14.169 --> 00:04:15.050 not exactly, 167 00:04:15.059 --> 00:04:15.279 uh, 168 00:04:15.289 --> 00:04:16.790 stellar at the moment with, 169 00:04:16.928 --> 00:04:17.160 uh, 170 00:04:17.170 --> 00:04:18.269 registered voters. 171 00:04:18.700 --> 00:04:19.690 This is of course a poll. 172 00:04:19.738 --> 00:04:19.928 This is, 173 00:04:19.940 --> 00:04:20.329 I believe, 174 00:04:20.339 --> 00:04:21.809 a likely voter poll. 175 00:04:21.899 --> 00:04:22.079 Um, 176 00:04:22.420 --> 00:04:23.709 I know it is a likely voter, 177 00:04:23.779 --> 00:04:23.899 uh, 178 00:04:23.980 --> 00:04:24.399 poll, 179 00:04:24.579 --> 00:04:26.619 which is common at this point in the campaign. 180 00:04:26.660 --> 00:04:28.980 You're not gonna necessarily do a registered voter or all adults 181 00:04:28.980 --> 00:04:30.899 poll because it's not really gonna give you that much information. 182 00:04:30.980 --> 00:04:32.000 You want likely voters. 183 00:04:32.339 --> 00:04:32.640 So 184 00:04:32.859 --> 00:04:33.100 this, 185 00:04:33.140 --> 00:04:33.339 uh, 186 00:04:33.500 --> 00:04:34.660 particular chart from The New York Times, 187 00:04:34.700 --> 00:04:36.179 and it is a chart of Palooza today, 188 00:04:36.339 --> 00:04:37.220 we've got a lot of charts coming. 189 00:04:37.325 --> 00:04:37.885 In your way, 190 00:04:38.084 --> 00:04:38.244 uh, 191 00:04:38.364 --> 00:04:38.644 of course, 192 00:04:38.734 --> 00:04:39.625 you on podcast, 193 00:04:39.765 --> 00:04:40.915 if you're listening on audio, 194 00:04:40.964 --> 00:04:42.725 I will do my best to describe these for you, 195 00:04:43.005 --> 00:04:43.165 um, 196 00:04:43.244 --> 00:04:46.285 but this is how support for Donald Trump has changed 197 00:04:46.515 --> 00:04:47.184 over time. 198 00:04:47.404 --> 00:04:48.244 In 2020, 199 00:04:48.325 --> 00:04:49.644 he was about a this is among, 200 00:04:49.755 --> 00:04:49.915 uh, 201 00:04:49.924 -->

00:04:50.515 younger voters, 202 00:04:50.554 --> 00:04:50.954 by the way, 203 00:04:51.204 --> 00:04:51.315 uh, 204 00:04:51.364 --> 00:04:52.964 he's about a -25, 205 00:04:53.084 --> 00:04:56.084 but you expect him to be kind of in the negative among younger voters. 206 00:04:56.404 --> 00:04:57.204 In 2024, 207 00:04:57.325 --> 00:04:58.734 he went from -25 208 00:04:58.964 --> 00:05:00.565 up into about -8, 209 00:05:00.804 --> 00:05:02.484 not too bad for Donald Trump in, 210 00:05:02.565 --> 00:05:02.795 uh, 211 00:05:02.804 --> 00:05:04.665 January in 2024 for that election. 212 00:05:05.410 --> 00:05:06.809 By January 2026, 213 00:05:06.890 --> 00:05:08.390 it had gone from -8 214 00:05:08.799 --> 00:05:10.940 to -46. 215 00:05:12.369 --> 00:05:13.350 In January, 216 00:05:13.450 --> 00:05:14.190 and today, 217 00:05:14.450 --> 00:05:16.950 it sits at -55. 218 00:05:17.799 --> 00:05:18.660 That's not good 219 00:05:19.149 --> 00:05:20.309 for non-white voters, 220 00:05:20.399 --> 00:05:22.559 you see a -35 in, 221 00:05:22.600 --> 00:05:22.869 uh, 222 00:05:22.920 --> 00:05:23.239 in, 223 00:05:23.320 --> 00:05:23.480 uh, 224 00:05:23.559 --> 00:05:24.529 back in 2020 225 00:05:24.739 --> 00:05:25.559 turn into, 226 00:05:25.600 --> 00:05:26.019 um, 227 00:05:26.279 --> 00:05:27.920 about a -20 in 2024. 228 00:05:28.040 --> 00:05:28.790 Still not a great number, 229 00:05:28.859 --> 00:05:29.109 but much, 230 00:05:29.160 --> 00:05:30.320 much better than he was. 231 00:05:30.720 --> 00:05:30.910 Uh, 232 00:05:31.040 --> 00:05:33.420 now it is all the way down to over -50. 233 00:05:33.959 --> 00:05:35.190 Regis all registered voters, 234 00:05:35.230 --> 00:05:35.529 here we go, 235 00:05:35.630 --> 00:05:36.579 registered voters, 236 00:05:36.799 --> 00:05:38.299 you're at -5. 237 00:05:38.899 --> 00:05:38.910 0, 238 00:05:38.920 --> 00:05:40.679 I just got a major buzz in my ear there. 239 00:05:40.799 --> 00:05:41.119 Ouch, 240 00:05:41.200 --> 00:05:41.720 that hurt. 241 00:05:42.119 --> 00:05:42.640 That hurt. 242 00:05:43.230 --> 00:05:43.549 Um, 243 00:05:43.630 --> 00:05:45.450 you now have a half-deaf host. 244 00:05:45.820 --> 00:05:46.029 Um, 245 00:05:46.100 --> 00:05:46.269 OK, 246 00:05:46.390 --> 00:05:48.329 registered voters at -8, 247 00:05:48.429 --> 00:05:49.170 uh, 248 00:05:49.209 --> 00:05:49.890 uh, 249 00:05:50.149 --> 00:05:52.089 was where he was back in 2020. 250 00:05:52.230 --> 00:05:53.970 He brought it up to basically even 251 00:05:54.309 --> 00:05:55.500 for the 2024 election, 252 00:05:55.709 --> 00:05:57.929 that backed off to about -13. 253 00:05:58.290 --> 00:05:58.399 Uh, 254 00:05:58.450 --> 00:06:01.920 in 20 in January of this year and is now at -25. 255 00:06:02.089 --> 00:06:04.510 The pattern is similar for almost all 256 00:06:04.769 --> 00:06:06.190 of these voters. 257 00:06:06.489 --> 00:06:06.649 Um, 258 00:06:06.730 --> 00:06:08.070 you're seeing a drop, 259 00:06:08.089 --> 00:06:10.329 with the exception of white voters who have dropped kind of like 260 00:06:10.329 --> 00:06:13.359 very minimally until January and then a big drop till today. 261 00:06:13.649 --> 00:06:13.809 Uh, 262 00:06:13.970 --> 00:06:15.410 everything else has been kind of this like U-turn, 263 00:06:15.570 --> 00:06:15.739 right? 264 00:06:15.809 --> 00:06:17.790 Where it was at a kind of at a bad point, 265 00:06:18.130 --> 00:06:19.750 reversed to kind of a good point, 266 00:06:19.929 --> 00:06:22.369 and has now gotten to an even worse point than where it started. 267 00:06:22.850 --> 00:06:23.809 That is where Donald Trump is. 268 00:06:23.890 --> 00:06:24.190 Now, 269 00:06:24.549 --> 00:06:24.910 again, 270 00:06:25.769 --> 00:06:27.899 presidential approval rating does not tell the entire story. 271 00:06:28.779 --> 00:06:30.459 You can believe or not believe these polls. 272 00:06:30.559 --> 00:06:33.209 What I would say is to believe the generalities. 273 00:06:33.459 --> 00:06:35.390 Don't get caught up in the specific numbers, 274 00:06:35.820 --> 00:06:37.859 get caught up a little bit in the generalities here, 275 00:06:37.899 --> 00:06:38.359 which is 276 00:06:38.459 --> 00:06:40.450 that Donald Trump is not very popular right now. 277 00:06:40.739 --> 00:06:41.700 We can give you the reasons for that. 278 00:06:41.779 --> 00:06:42.739 We've talked about it before, 279 00:06:42.820 --> 00:06:44.410 the Iran war is central, 280 00:06:44.459 --> 00:06:44.730 I think, 281 00:06:44.899 --> 00:06:45.239 to 282 00:06:45.459 --> 00:06:47.850 the falloff at least from January of this year. 283 00:06:48.100 --> 00:06:48.220 I mean, 284 00:06:48.260 --> 00:06:51.220 it's almost all Iran war related since then, 285 00:06:51.500 --> 00:06:53.459 but there are other things that kind of pushed him into 286 00:06:53.459 --> 00:06:56.339 a more negative position before that as well that are factors. 287 00:06:57.100 --> 00:06:59.630 This is a jarring chart I'm about to show you. 288 00:06:59.970 --> 00:07:01.809 And this is a chart that can put 289 00:07:02.010 --> 00:07:04.640 the potential of a blue tsunami, 290 00:07:05.010 --> 00:07:05.829 blue wave 291 00:07:06.089 --> 00:07:06.750 into 292 00:07:07.049 --> 00:07:07.720 perspective. 293 00:07:07.890 --> 00:07:08.209 Again, 294 00:07:08.320 --> 00:07:10.209 this is not about this negative polling. 295 00:07:10.260 --> 00:07:12.329 I'm going to talk about polling error here in a second, 296 00:07:12.429 --> 00:07:13.640 so don't get caught up if you're like, 297 00:07:13.690 --> 00:07:14.000 oh gosh, 298 00:07:14.049 --> 00:07:14.329 I want, 299 00:07:14.410 --> 00:07:15.089 I want good things for. 300 00:07:15.364 --> 00:07:17.045 Republicans don't get caught up in the bad news, 301 00:07:17.285 --> 00:07:17.494 uh, 302 00:07:17.505 --> 00:07:17.785 yet. 303 00:07:17.964 --> 00:07:20.244 And if you are a person who's on the left and you're saying, 304 00:07:20.285 --> 00:07:20.404 oh,

305 00:07:20.445 --> 00:07:21.484 this is the greatest news of all time, 306 00:07:21.565 --> 00:07:21.714 uh, 307 00:07:21.774 --> 00:07:22.234 hold on, 308 00:07:22.325 --> 00:07:23.404 because these things might not be true. 309 00:07:23.484 --> 00:07:23.785 But 310 00:07:24.165 --> 00:07:24.825 generally 311 00:07:25.035 --> 00:07:25.364 speaking, 312 00:07:25.515 --> 00:07:27.364 Donald Trump is not a very popular president right now. 313 00:07:27.524 --> 00:07:30.584 This is the list of presidents going back to the 40s, 314 00:07:30.885 --> 00:07:31.125 um, 315 00:07:31.244 --> 00:07:34.394 all of them together and where they were going into their midterms. 316 00:07:34.684 --> 00:07:36.285 The least popular one among them. 317 00:07:36.970 --> 00:07:37.570 Was Harry S. 318 00:07:37.649 --> 00:07:40.059 Truman at 33% approval rating. 319 00:07:40.149 --> 00:07:41.809 You might remember that Harry S. 320 00:07:41.820 --> 00:07:44.070 Truman actually turned out to be relatively popular by the, 321 00:07:44.089 --> 00:07:44.549 uh, 322 00:07:44.730 --> 00:07:45.730 historically speaking. 323 00:07:47.070 --> 00:07:47.470 However, 324 00:07:47.549 --> 00:07:49.070 you see the people around him. 325 00:07:49.309 --> 00:07:51.269 Harry Truman in 1950 also not popular. 326 00:07:51.470 --> 00:07:55.070 George Bush in 2006 is an illustrative example. 327 00:07:55.149 --> 00:07:56.850 He was at 37% approval 328 00:07:57.029 --> 00:07:57.890 in between 329 00:07:58.190 --> 00:07:59.269 Harry Truman and George W. 330 00:07:59.350 --> 00:07:59.929 Bush 331 00:08:00.070 --> 00:08:01.130 in his second term. 332 00:08:02.170 --> 00:08:02.809 Donald Trump, 333 00:08:02.929 --> 00:08:04.450 34% approval. 334 00:08:04.690 --> 00:08:06.290 If you could go down a little while, 335 00:08:06.450 --> 00:08:08.630 you will eventually get to Ronald Reagan 336 00:08:08.929 --> 00:08:10.089 at 42%, 337 00:08:10.209 --> 00:08:14.529 who wound up being very popular just a couple of years after that 1982 poll. 338 00:08:14.929 --> 00:08:15.109 Uh, 339 00:08:15.209 --> 00:08:18.329 Barack Obama in 2014 was only at 42%. 340 00:08:18.450 --> 00:08:19.230 It's looked back 341 00:08:19.570 --> 00:08:21.420 at positively certainly by the media. 342 00:08:21.690 --> 00:08:22.679 2018, 343 00:08:22.809 --> 00:08:23.660 Donald Trump 344 00:08:23.809 --> 00:08:25.220 at 42% 345 00:08:25.329 --> 00:08:26.320 in his first midterm, 346 00:08:26.390 --> 00:08:26.869 so he is. 347 00:08:27.380 --> 00:08:30.209 Less popular by 8 points from his first midterm, 348 00:08:30.459 --> 00:08:33.099 he is less popular than 2006 George W. 349 00:08:33.140 --> 00:08:33.419 Bush, 350 00:08:33.500 --> 00:08:36.530 which I will remind you was a catastrophic year for Republicans. 351 00:08:36.820 --> 00:08:37.479 That does not mean 352 00:08:37.900 --> 00:08:38.859 this is the only factor. 353 00:08:39.609 --> 00:08:41.520 But it is gonna give you a sense as to where 354 00:08:42.020 --> 00:08:45.599 things stand right now in the uphill battle that Republicans are looking at. 355 00:08:46.020 --> 00:08:47.619 The generic poll was also in here, 356 00:08:47.659 --> 00:08:48.219 to remind you, 357 00:08:48.340 --> 00:08:48.510 uh, 358 00:08:48.580 --> 00:08:49.809 for non-polling nerds, 359 00:08:49.859 --> 00:08:52.340 the generic poll is a poll that basically asks you, 360 00:08:52.580 --> 00:08:52.659 hey, 361 00:08:52.700 --> 00:08:55.260 you're gonna vote for a Republican or Democratic candidate this time. 362 00:08:55.619 --> 00:08:55.919 And, 363 00:08:56.090 --> 00:08:56.229 uh, 364 00:08:56.299 --> 00:08:57.820 so it gives you kind of a just a party, 365 00:08:58.090 --> 00:09:00.539 two-party idea as to where things stand. 366 00:09:00.909 --> 00:09:02.580 The reason why this is important is it kind of 367 00:09:02.580 --> 00:09:04.710 gives you a tone of the climate of an election. 368 00:09:04.830 --> 00:09:05.989 What is the current of the election? 369 00:09:06.109 --> 00:09:06.669 What is the, 370 00:09:06.989 --> 00:09:09.570 what's the playing field look like in this game we're about to begin? 371 00:09:10.869 --> 00:09:11.270 Uh, 372 00:09:11.390 --> 00:09:12.770 that poll right now is 373 00:09:13.030 --> 00:09:14.429 -11 374 00:09:14.590 --> 00:09:15.820 for Republicans, 375 00:09:15.830 --> 00:09:17.020 according to The New York Times, 376 00:09:17.270 --> 00:09:19.440 52 to 41 377 00:09:19.710 --> 00:09:20.270 is the number. 378 00:09:20.390 --> 00:09:21.669 -11 379 00:09:21.989 --> 00:09:22.530 is, 380 00:09:22.669 --> 00:09:22.979 you know, 381 00:09:23.460 --> 00:09:24.710 legitimately catastrophic. 382 00:09:24.750 --> 00:09:26.869 If that's the real number on election day, 383 00:09:26.989 --> 00:09:28.729 this will be a blue tsunami. 384 00:09:29.270 --> 00:09:31.489 It will be a situation where Democrats 385 00:09:31.669 --> 00:09:33.119 not only pick up the House and the Senate, 386 00:09:33.150 --> 00:09:34.010 but have major 387 00:09:34.390 --> 00:09:35.830 gains to the point they might be at, 388 00:09:35.989 --> 00:09:36.150 you know, 389 00:09:36.190 --> 00:09:36.580 53, 390 00:09:36.650 --> 00:09:36.989 54, 391 00:09:37.070 --> 00:09:38.229 55 seats in the Senate. 392 00:09:38.719 --> 00:09:39.330 So that's what that is. 393 00:09:39.489 --> 00:09:39.599 Now, 394 00:09:39.609 --> 00:09:40.409 let me give you another poll. 395 00:09:40.530 --> 00:09:40.719 Uh, 396 00:09:40.890 --> 00:09:42.010 Strength in numbers is, 397 00:09:42.090 --> 00:09:42.270 uh, 398 00:09:42.409 --> 00:09:43.320 has a new poll out. 399 00:09:43.570 --> 00:09:45.409 Democrats post their biggest generic ballot lead, 400 00:09:45.530 --> 00:09:45.640 uh, 401 00:09:45.729 --> 00:09:46.150 yet 402 00:09:46.369 --> 00:09:47.210 two weeks out. 403 00:09:47.450 --> 00:09:48.169 Here is their poll. 404 00:09:48.239 --> 00:09:50.400 You see how it's bounced around from time to time, 405 00:09:50.469 --> 00:09:52.799 but currently

at 52 to 41%. 406 00:09:52.849 --> 00:09:53.340 And again, 407 00:09:53.369 --> 00:09:54.650 an 11 point lead. 408 00:09:54.969 --> 00:09:55.929 On the generic 409 00:09:56.169 --> 00:09:56.530 ballot, 410 00:09:56.650 --> 00:09:56.890 a, 411 00:09:57.000 --> 00:09:57.809 a massive one, 412 00:09:58.200 --> 00:09:58.729 frankly. 413 00:09:59.049 --> 00:09:59.400 Again, 414 00:09:59.559 --> 00:10:00.109 I think 415 00:10:00.289 --> 00:10:01.429 if you think of the two 416 00:10:01.969 --> 00:10:02.590 recent 417 00:10:03.090 --> 00:10:04.309 terrible elections 418 00:10:04.729 --> 00:10:05.239 for, 419 00:10:05.250 --> 00:10:06.090 um, 420 00:10:06.099 --> 00:10:07.549 Republicans that were midterms, 421 00:10:07.729 --> 00:10:09.409 you think of 2018, 422 00:10:09.640 --> 00:10:10.409 very bad year. 423 00:10:10.650 --> 00:10:14.349 The generic ballot at that point was about a -8 for Republicans. 424 00:10:14.760 --> 00:10:14.929 Uh, 425 00:10:15.000 --> 00:10:15.809 2006, 426 00:10:15.890 --> 00:10:17.570 I don't have that one actually in front of me, 427 00:10:17.650 --> 00:10:19.349 but it was worse than 2018. 428 00:10:19.409 --> 00:10:20.359 It might have been 2010 or 2011, 429 00:10:20.409 --> 00:10:21.690 I can't remember what that number was. 430 00:10:22.159 --> 00:10:22.520 Um, 431 00:10:22.640 --> 00:10:23.979 so you're going back that far, 432 00:10:24.440 --> 00:10:27.469 you do see these types of outcomes in the generic ballot, 433 00:10:27.599 --> 00:10:28.940 if those polls are accurate, 434 00:10:29.289 --> 00:10:30.460 and we're about to get into whether they, 435 00:10:30.679 --> 00:10:31.979 we should consider them to be. 436 00:10:32.780 --> 00:10:33.099 Uh, 437 00:10:33.179 --> 00:10:35.159 that this would be catastrophic levels for, 438 00:10:35.289 --> 00:10:35.770 uh, 439 00:10:35.780 --> 00:10:36.140 Republicans, 440 00:10:36.179 --> 00:10:37.099 and you'd be looking at, 441 00:10:37.179 --> 00:10:37.450 uh, 442 00:10:37.659 --> 00:10:40.080 pretty much every race that was winnable for 443 00:10:40.580 --> 00:10:41.039 Democrats 444 00:10:41.260 --> 00:10:42.299 wouldn't be won. 445 00:10:42.659 --> 00:10:44.530 There'd always be some exceptions on either side of that, 446 00:10:44.590 --> 00:10:45.250 but generally speaking, 447 00:10:45.320 --> 00:10:46.039 that's what we'd be looking for. 448 00:10:46.140 --> 00:10:46.880 So right now. 449 00:10:47.840 --> 00:10:48.719 This is 450 00:10:49.080 --> 00:10:50.640 the tone of most polling. 451 00:10:51.859 --> 00:10:53.150 Most polling will tell you, 452 00:10:53.539 --> 00:10:54.719 Democrats have a massive lead, 453 00:10:54.760 --> 00:10:55.729 and this is going to look very, 454 00:10:55.820 --> 00:10:56.960 very bad for Republicans. 455 00:10:57.140 --> 00:10:58.679 So what we're looking at right now 456 00:10:59.020 --> 00:11:00.070 is one of two things, 457 00:11:00.419 --> 00:11:01.020 either 458 00:11:01.280 --> 00:11:01.979 a very, 459 00:11:02.140 --> 00:11:03.960 very bad Republican year, 460 00:11:04.419 --> 00:11:04.719 or 461 00:11:05.140 --> 00:11:05.539 a very, 462 00:11:05.619 --> 00:11:07.539 very bad polling error 463 00:11:07.820 --> 00:11:10.119 that we're looking at over a lot of pollsters 464 00:11:10.219 --> 00:11:11.020 at the same time. 465 00:11:12.229 --> 00:11:15.429 I bring this to your attention before we set up what we're about to go through, 466 00:11:15.510 --> 00:11:16.030 which is, 467 00:11:16.429 --> 00:11:18.059 should we be looking at a polling error? 468 00:11:18.150 --> 00:11:19.020 What does that actually look like? 469 00:11:19.190 --> 00:11:21.250 I know it feels like every polls wrong all the time. 470 00:11:21.570 --> 00:11:22.750 What are the actual stats about it? 471 00:11:22.830 --> 00:11:23.489 What's the history, 472 00:11:23.830 --> 00:11:24.780 and how does all this work? 473 00:11:24.830 --> 00:11:26.369 What does it mean if there is a polling error? 474 00:11:26.400 --> 00:11:27.489 So I wanna go through that in a second. 475 00:11:27.869 --> 00:11:28.109 But I, 476 00:11:28.229 --> 00:11:30.330 I do wanna make sure we pause and say that 477 00:11:30.630 --> 00:11:31.809 it is likely 478 00:11:32.270 --> 00:11:32.580 that 479 00:11:32.750 --> 00:11:38.070 the tone of a blue lean in this election is not some media creation. 480 00:11:39.099 --> 00:11:42.159 There is a lot of data out there to show 481 00:11:42.619 --> 00:11:45.659 that what we're looking at here is a left-leaning electorate, 482 00:11:45.820 --> 00:11:47.609 an electorate that's just pissed off, 483 00:11:47.859 --> 00:11:48.020 you know, 484 00:11:48.169 --> 00:11:48.940 like they're pissed off at the, 485 00:11:48.979 --> 00:11:49.770 the way the world is, 486 00:11:49.820 --> 00:11:50.609 is right now, 487 00:11:50.820 --> 00:11:53.719 and they're probably gonna take it out at the on the party in power. 488 00:11:53.929 --> 00:11:56.280 That is what happens in every midterm 489 00:11:56.539 --> 00:11:57.140 with very, 490 00:11:57.219 --> 00:11:59.159 very few exceptions over the past century. 491 00:11:59.375 --> 00:12:01.484 So that's not something that should be unexpected. 492 00:12:01.664 --> 00:12:03.734 It should be something that you should be expecting. 493 00:12:03.775 --> 00:12:05.854 It's what I've expected coming into this election 494 00:12:05.854 --> 00:12:07.344 and warned you about a bunch of times. 495 00:12:07.575 --> 00:12:10.015 It's why I was in on the Democratic House 496 00:12:10.255 --> 00:12:12.715 a million years ago and it was in the 60s 497 00:12:12.934 --> 00:12:16.155 when we were talking about it going back to before the show even started. 498 00:12:17.090 --> 00:12:17.750 So that's 499 00:12:18.530 --> 00:12:20.130 the historic basis for all of this. 500 00:12:20.940 --> 00:12:22.080 The question though, 501 00:12:22.369 --> 00:12:25.559 is that what happens if there is a polling error. 502 00:12:26.099 --> 00:12:28.400 This has happened

obviously many times. 503 00:12:28.809 --> 00:12:30.380 And there's a couple of them that you're gonna know about, 504 00:12:30.460 --> 00:12:32.119 obviously with Donald Trump in particular. 505 00:12:32.580 --> 00:12:34.679 But I wanna bring you back to take a wider look 506 00:12:35.010 --> 00:12:38.739 at polling and the errors that we've seen in polling over the years, 507 00:12:38.940 --> 00:12:40.299 especially as they apply to midterms. 508 00:12:40.400 --> 00:12:43.039 So let's go back to that first terrible year that I told you about 509 00:12:43.340 --> 00:12:44.719 in 2006. 510 00:12:44.900 --> 00:12:46.820 If you think about the context of this moment. 511 00:12:47.119 --> 00:12:47.599 You have, 512 00:12:47.640 --> 00:12:48.489 uh, 513 00:12:48.679 --> 00:12:49.739 Bush gets elected, 514 00:12:50.000 --> 00:12:51.219 9/11 happens, 515 00:12:51.479 --> 00:12:52.700 Afghanistan happens, 516 00:12:53.130 --> 00:12:54.130 Iraq happens, 517 00:12:54.390 --> 00:12:56.619 Bush is re-elected in 2004, 518 00:12:56.919 --> 00:12:58.900 and then we fast forward to 2006, 519 00:12:58.909 --> 00:13:00.659 and the war isn't going well. 520 00:13:01.119 --> 00:13:01.280 Uh, 521 00:13:01.359 --> 00:13:02.840 Bush is very unpopular, 522 00:13:02.919 --> 00:13:03.489 we just mentioned, 523 00:13:03.500 --> 00:13:05.020 37% approval rating. 524 00:13:05.650 --> 00:13:09.099 And they go into that midterm and get smoked in that midterm. 525 00:13:09.340 --> 00:13:10.489 The polling in that midterm, 526 00:13:10.570 --> 00:13:11.039 however, 527 00:13:11.380 --> 00:13:12.179 relatively accurate. 528 00:13:12.219 --> 00:13:12.380 In fact, 529 00:13:12.500 --> 00:13:13.840 one of the most accurate years 530 00:13:14.140 --> 00:13:14.820 we've ever had. 531 00:13:14.940 --> 00:13:15.739 2006, 532 00:13:15.849 --> 00:13:16.289 there was a, 533 00:13:16.299 --> 00:13:16.580 uh, 534 00:13:16.650 --> 00:13:16.890 uh, 535 00:13:16.900 --> 00:13:17.919 a polling error 536 00:13:18.299 --> 00:13:18.729 that, 537 00:13:19.020 --> 00:13:19.250 uh, 538 00:13:19.260 --> 00:13:22.909 favored Republicans only by 0.1% points. 539 00:13:23.059 --> 00:13:23.359 So, 540 00:13:23.590 --> 00:13:24.299 almost perfect. 541 00:13:24.390 --> 00:13:24.530 Now, 542 00:13:24.539 --> 00:13:25.479 when we talk about 543 00:13:25.760 --> 00:13:26.260 almost perfect, 544 00:13:26.299 --> 00:13:28.419 that doesn't mean there weren't misses in that cycle. 545 00:13:28.809 --> 00:13:32.380 But this is the most accurate cycle according to Nate Silver's silver bulletin, 546 00:13:32.580 --> 00:13:35.239 going back to 1998. 547 00:13:35.460 --> 00:13:38.059 What we're talking about here is a combined polling error. 548 00:13:38.140 --> 00:13:40.559 So we're averaging all the polling error out, 549 00:13:40.770 --> 00:13:41.159 um, 550 00:13:41.179 --> 00:13:42.559 across different categories. 551 00:13:42.809 --> 00:13:46.400 This doesn't mean there weren't misses in individual polls in that

year. 552 00:13:46.619 --> 00:13:48.580 It's just that the overall picture was very, 553 00:13:48.659 --> 00:13:50.450 very accurate in 2006. 554 00:13:50.690 --> 00:13:51.409 2008, 555 00:13:51.539 --> 00:13:53.539 Barack Obama runs for president. 556 00:13:54.030 --> 00:13:54.440 Um, 557 00:13:54.520 --> 00:13:54.840 and, 558 00:13:54.919 --> 00:13:55.159 uh, 559 00:13:55.440 --> 00:13:57.210 another great year for Democrats, 560 00:13:57.479 --> 00:13:59.250 and a very good year for polls as well, 561 00:13:59.349 --> 00:14:01.179 less than a 1% error again, 562 00:14:01.640 --> 00:14:05.979 the polls came close favoring Democrats by just 0.8% points. 563 00:14:06.369 --> 00:14:06.890 So, 564 00:14:07.049 --> 00:14:07.729 good start here, 565 00:14:07.890 --> 00:14:08.030 right? 566 00:14:08.130 --> 00:14:08.950 Good start here 567 00:14:09.169 --> 00:14:11.679 as we go through the first couple of elections we're covering here. 568 00:14:11.890 --> 00:14:13.530 2010 happens. 569 00:14:13.770 --> 00:14:13.969 Now, 570 00:14:14.010 --> 00:14:14.640 over this time, 571 00:14:14.650 --> 00:14:15.669 we're seeing big 572 00:14:17.010 --> 00:14:18.400 changes in technology and, 573 00:14:18.530 --> 00:14:20.349 and polling's getting more and more difficult. 574 00:14:20.489 --> 00:14:22.400 Fewer people are responding to polls. 575 00:14:22.690 --> 00:14:25.150 There's a reason why these polls were more accurate 576 00:14:25.369 --> 00:14:27.210 back then than they feel right now. 577 00:14:27.619 --> 00:14:28.059 Um, 578 00:14:28.299 --> 00:14:28.739 so again, 579 00:14:28.820 --> 00:14:29.500 2010, 580 00:14:29.580 --> 00:14:31.330 the biggest wave election in a century, 581 00:14:31.500 --> 00:14:32.500 the Tea Party wave, 582 00:14:32.539 --> 00:14:33.780 as you might remember it, 583 00:14:33.969 --> 00:14:34.130 uh, 584 00:14:34.260 --> 00:14:35.760 goes massively in favor 585 00:14:35.900 --> 00:14:37.099 of Republicans. 586 00:14:37.210 --> 00:14:37.969 One of the reasons for that, 587 00:14:38.020 --> 00:14:38.479 by the way. 588 00:14:38.989 --> 00:14:39.260 Um, 589 00:14:39.309 --> 00:14:41.669 the reason why the numbers were so big is because you 590 00:14:41.669 --> 00:14:43.669 just had two big wins in a row for Democrats. 591 00:14:43.789 --> 00:14:45.349 So they have big majorities going into this. 592 00:14:45.789 --> 00:14:47.140 Republicans wipe out those majorities, 593 00:14:47.510 --> 00:14:48.349 smoke everybody, 594 00:14:48.580 --> 00:14:48.739 uh, 595 00:14:48.830 --> 00:14:49.049 in, 596 00:14:49.109 --> 00:14:49.260 uh, 597 00:14:49.309 --> 00:14:50.599 in the House and the Senate. 598 00:14:50.890 --> 00:14:51.789 But the polls again, 599 00:14:52.030 --> 00:14:52.270 very, 600 00:14:52.349 --> 00:14:53.309 very accurate that year. 601 00:14:53.669 --> 00:14:54.130 Republicans 602 00:14:54.309 --> 00:14:54.590 came, 603 00:14:54.669 --> 00:14:55.020 uh, 604 00:14:55.200 --> 00:14:55.340 were, 605 00:14:55.390 --> 00:14:59.090 were favored in the polls that time by just 0.3 606 00:14:59.229 --> 00:14:59.729 points. 607 00:15:00.190 --> 00:15:03.169 2012 is one that you may remember being a little bit different. 608 00:15:03.349 --> 00:15:04.030 2012, 609 00:15:04.179 --> 00:15:05.739 Mitt Romney runs for president. 610 00:15:05.989 --> 00:15:08.150 Barack Obama running for re-election. 611 00:15:08.460 --> 00:15:09.500 And the polls, 612 00:15:09.630 --> 00:15:11.539 as we get closer and closer to that election, 613 00:15:11.909 --> 00:15:12.630 start feeling like, 614 00:15:12.750 --> 00:15:13.369 wait a minute, 615 00:15:14.059 --> 00:15:16.030 Mitt Romney's got a chance to get rid of Barack Obama. 616 00:15:16.219 --> 00:15:17.229 Obama's not that popular, 617 00:15:17.390 --> 00:15:17.549 you know, 618 00:15:17.669 --> 00:15:17.950 right then. 619 00:15:18.030 --> 00:15:18.700 He's coming off of, 620 00:15:18.750 --> 00:15:19.059 uh, 621 00:15:19.190 --> 00:15:19.380 the, 622 00:15:19.429 --> 00:15:19.570 the, 623 00:15:19.650 --> 00:15:21.729 the healthcare.gov disaster. 624 00:15:21.909 --> 00:15:22.030 Uh, 625 00:15:22.270 --> 00:15:24.080 Obamacare really disliked. 626 00:15:24.270 --> 00:15:25.750 Romney runs that campaign, 627 00:15:26.150 --> 00:15:26.590 smokes, 628 00:15:26.679 --> 00:15:27.229 uh, 629 00:15:27.549 --> 00:15:28.750 Obama in the first debate. 630 00:15:29.229 --> 00:15:30.590 And then does terrible in the next two. 631 00:15:31.270 --> 00:15:34.150 but the outcome of the polls there were 632 00:15:34.150 --> 00:15:36.739 Republicans were actually favored in that election. 633 00:15:37.030 --> 00:15:37.140 Uh, 634 00:15:37.190 --> 00:15:40.109 the polls favored Republicans by 2.8% points, 635 00:15:40.190 --> 00:15:41.289 so that error 636 00:15:41.789 --> 00:15:42.630 went to the Republicans. 637 00:15:42.750 --> 00:15:45.530 Romney looked stronger than he actually was, 638 00:15:45.909 --> 00:15:48.799 and Obama wound up winning that election. 639 00:15:49.229 --> 00:15:50.950 We go to 2014. 640 00:15:51.190 --> 00:15:51.989 Interestingly enough, 641 00:15:52.109 --> 00:15:53.590 the exact reverse happens, 642 00:15:53.630 --> 00:15:54.549 2014. 643 00:15:54.770 --> 00:15:55.010 Uh, 644 00:15:55.080 --> 00:15:56.789 a 2.8% error 645 00:15:56.969 --> 00:15:58.130 in favor of Democrats. 646 00:15:58.450 --> 00:15:59.650 Democrats look better than they are, 647 00:15:59.719 --> 00:15:59.890 and, 648 00:16:00.010 --> 00:16:02.570 and 2014 winds up being a really good year, 649 00:16:02.770 --> 00:16:04.030 a really good midterm 650 00:16:04.369 --> 00:16:04.869 for 651 00:16:05.559 --> 00:16:06.030 Republicans, 652 00:16:06.289 --> 00:16:07.130 and the Democratic, 653 00:16:07.250 --> 00:16:09.130 the polls looked too good for Democrats. 654 00:16:09.250 --> 00:16:09.530 This isn't, 655 00:16:09.640 --> 00:16:09.729 you know, 656 00:16:09.890 --> 00:16:10.929 remember 2014 is, 657 00:16:10.989 --> 00:16:12.119 is an era where

people are saying, 658 00:16:12.169 --> 00:16:12.320 oh, 659 00:16:12.359 --> 00:16:12.760 this is, 660 00:16:13.210 --> 00:16:15.719 we're not even gonna have a Republican Party anymore. 661 00:16:15.950 --> 00:16:15.960 Uh, 662 00:16:16.450 --> 00:16:17.690 Barack Obama's changed all that. 663 00:16:17.849 --> 00:16:20.599 Maybe Republicans will only be a regional party from now on, 664 00:16:20.690 --> 00:16:20.840 like, 665 00:16:20.890 --> 00:16:21.030 uh, 666 00:16:21.119 --> 00:16:21.250 you know, 667 00:16:21.409 --> 00:16:22.250 like the Whigs. 668 00:16:22.700 --> 00:16:23.059 Uh, 669 00:16:23.179 --> 00:16:23.340 like, 670 00:16:23.380 --> 00:16:23.739 uh, 671 00:16:23.820 --> 00:16:24.059 you know, 672 00:16:24.179 --> 00:16:24.299 the, 673 00:16:24.380 --> 00:16:24.700 the, 674 00:16:24.840 --> 00:16:26.739 the racist parties of back in the day, 675 00:16:26.809 --> 00:16:27.679 you know those stories. 676 00:16:28.140 --> 00:16:29.400 So that's 2014. 677 00:16:29.859 --> 00:16:31.270 Now we get into the Trump era, 678 00:16:31.700 --> 00:16:32.460 and things get, 679 00:16:32.570 --> 00:16:35.119 start getting crazier and crazier and crazier and crazier. 680 00:16:35.619 --> 00:16:35.700 Uh, 681 00:16:35.780 --> 00:16:36.979 2016. 682 00:16:37.619 --> 00:16:39.340 The second cycle in a row, 683 00:16:39.539 --> 00:16:40.460 same as 2014, 684 00:16:40.539 --> 00:16:42.239 where we get a big error 685 00:16:42.780 --> 00:16:43.979 favoring Democrats. 686 00:16:44.059 --> 00:16:47.099 The average of that was a 3 point margin, 687 00:16:47.169 --> 00:16:48.359 the biggest we've seen so far, 688 00:16:48.890 --> 00:16:52.280 a 3 point margin favoring Democrats in 2016. 689 00:16:52.380 --> 00:16:55.140 This of course leads to the massive upset at the time 690 00:16:55.299 --> 00:16:57.280 of Donald Trump taking out Hillary Clinton, 691 00:16:57.770 --> 00:16:58.049 um, 692 00:16:58.150 --> 00:16:58.500 in in a, 693 00:16:58.580 --> 00:17:00.140 in a race that I don't even know if the 694 00:17:00.140 --> 00:17:02.299 people in the campaign thought they were going to win, 695 00:17:02.380 --> 00:17:02.900 but they did. 696 00:17:03.270 --> 00:17:03.390 Uh, 697 00:17:03.469 --> 00:17:04.750 he won the race fair and square, 698 00:17:05.030 --> 00:17:07.368 became the president of the United States. 699 00:17:07.790 --> 00:17:09.479 We go through a couple of years of Trump, 700 00:17:09.709 --> 00:17:10.348 uh, 701 00:17:10.550 --> 00:17:10.670 you know, 702 00:17:10.790 --> 00:17:11.709 there's bumps and bruises, 703 00:17:11.819 --> 00:17:12.270 some good things, 704 00:17:12.380 --> 00:17:13.030 some bad things, 705 00:17:13.310 --> 00:17:13.430 you know, 706 00:17:13.469 --> 00:17:15.890 it's not necessarily the most popular president in the world, 707 00:17:15.989 --> 00:17:16.550 obviously, 708 00:17:17.310 --> 00:17:19.250 you might notice he's a tad divisive. 709 00:17:19.670 --> 00:17:19.900 Um, 710 00:17:19.989 --> 00:17:20.310 and, 711 00:17:20.339 --> 00:17:21.300 uh, 712 00:17:21.550 --> 00:17:21.709 he, 713 00:17:21.819 --> 00:17:23.770 we have a 2018, 714 00:17:24.310 --> 00:17:24.848 um, 715 00:17:25.150 --> 00:17:25.858 uh, 716 00:17:26.030 --> 00:17:26.569 midterm. 717 00:17:26.670 --> 00:17:26.890 That 718 00:17:27.060 --> 00:17:28.709 midterm does not go well for Republicans. 719 00:17:29.209 --> 00:17:29.339 Um, 720 00:17:29.400 --> 00:17:29.619 in fact, 721 00:17:29.699 --> 00:17:29.900 they, 722 00:17:29.969 --> 00:17:30.180 uh, 723 00:17:30.260 --> 00:17:32.239 they get kind of smoked in that election. 724 00:17:32.260 --> 00:17:32.459 Again, 725 00:17:32.540 --> 00:17:33.739 that's about an 8 point, 726 00:17:33.819 --> 00:17:34.489 it was an 8 point, 727 00:17:34.500 --> 00:17:35.079 I believe, 728 00:17:35.250 --> 00:17:37.180 margin of a generic ballot vote, 729 00:17:37.369 --> 00:17:40.520 but the polls again were very good in that 2018 730 00:17:40.800 --> 00:17:40.849 election. 731 00:17:40.890 --> 00:17:41.060 In fact, 732 00:17:41.150 --> 00:17:41.290 the, 733 00:17:41.380 --> 00:17:41.579 uh, 734 00:17:41.660 --> 00:17:43.599 polls came close favoring Republicans 735 00:17:43.739 --> 00:17:45.680 by just 0.5 736 00:17:46.099 --> 00:17:46.540 points. 737 00:17:47.510 --> 00:17:49.459 0.5 points favoring Republicans, 738 00:17:49.510 --> 00:17:49.709 but again, 739 00:17:49.750 --> 00:17:49.869 I, 740 00:17:49.979 --> 00:17:52.819 I would just basically say they were good in 2018. 741 00:17:53.099 --> 00:17:54.920 The result for Republicans was very bad. 742 00:17:55.020 --> 00:17:56.010 The polls were very good. 743 00:17:56.219 --> 00:17:56.900 2020, 744 00:17:57.030 --> 00:17:58.010 Donald Trump runs again. 745 00:17:58.359 --> 00:17:59.810 This is something that people don't realize 746 00:18:00.270 --> 00:18:03.660 because Donald Trump won in 2020 2016 and 2024. 747 00:18:03.869 --> 00:18:04.739 In 2020, 748 00:18:04.939 --> 00:18:08.790 the polls had the biggest miss of any of these presidential races with Donald Trump, 749 00:18:08.869 --> 00:18:10.650 a 4.7 point miss 750 00:18:10.790 --> 00:18:11.060 for, 751 00:18:11.069 --> 00:18:11.489 uh, 752 00:18:11.550 --> 00:18:11.709 Democrats. 753 00:18:11.770 --> 00:18:13.829 The polls favored Democrats by 4.7 points. 754 00:18:13.920 --> 00:18:15.430 This is the largest polling miss. 755 00:18:15.800 --> 00:18:15.939 Uh, 756 00:18:16.010 --> 00:18:16.560 in the, 757 00:18:16.569 --> 00:18:17.040 uh, 758 00:18:17.050 --> 00:18:19.939 silver bulletin archive going back to 1998. 759 00:18:20.359 --> 00:18:20.520 Uh, 760 00:18:20.680 --> 00:18:21.160 this is, 761 00:18:21.449 --> 00:18:21.760 you know, 762 00:18:22.119 --> 00:18:22.619 because 763 00:18:22.800 --> 00:18:24.300 basically what happened in that one was 764 00:18:24.800 --> 00:18:28.359 Biden was favored by like 8 points and he only won by 3 or something like that. 765 00:18:28.400 --> 00:18:29.239 I can't remember the exact, 766

00:18:29.319 --> 00:18:29.780 uh, 767 00:18:30.449 --> 00:18:30.599 remember, 768 00:18:30.640 --> 00:18:32.400 it might have been a little bit smaller than that actually, 769 00:18:32.680 --> 00:18:32.750 uh, 770 00:18:32.760 --> 00:18:33.319 the final count, 771 00:18:33.420 --> 00:18:33.660 but, 772 00:18:33.880 --> 00:18:34.040 uh, 773 00:18:34.349 --> 00:18:37.300 that was a big miss and you saw big misses around, 774 00:18:37.329 --> 00:18:37.709 uh, 775 00:18:37.800 --> 00:18:38.189 the, 776 00:18:38.280 --> 00:18:38.550 uh, 777 00:18:38.640 --> 00:18:39.180 the nation. 778 00:18:39.329 --> 00:18:39.640 In fact, 779 00:18:39.689 --> 00:18:42.920 you go back and this is the one Susan Collins was a huge underdog, 780 00:18:42.959 --> 00:18:43.599 wound up winning. 781 00:18:43.839 --> 00:18:46.000 There's these big individual polling races, 782 00:18:46.239 --> 00:18:46.760 race misses, 783 00:18:46.829 --> 00:18:47.060 but 784 00:18:47.199 --> 00:18:47.630 overall, 785 00:18:47.640 --> 00:18:48.400 the average was. 786 00:18:48.839 --> 00:18:49.079 Big. 787 00:18:49.180 --> 00:18:52.000 It was a big miss for polls in 2020. 788 00:18:52.319 --> 00:18:52.510 Now, 789 00:18:52.599 --> 00:18:53.930 each time this happens, 790 00:18:54.079 --> 00:18:56.339 they're trying to correct for these errors. 791 00:18:56.599 --> 00:18:59.000 And you'd think after they missed in 2016, 792 00:18:59.119 --> 00:19:02.599 there was talk about how well we didn't correctly adjust for education levels, 793 00:19:02.680 --> 00:19:02.920 we didn't, 794 00:19:02.959 --> 00:19:03.069 you know, 795 00:19:03.079 --> 00:19:03.270 blah, 796 00:19:03.280 --> 00:19:03.479 blah, 797 00:19:03.489 --> 00:19:03.839 blah blah, 798 00:19:03.920 --> 00:19:04.719 we missed a lot of the, 799 00:19:04.729 --> 00:19:04.739 the, 800 00:19:04.839 --> 00:19:06.099 the shy Trump voters. 801 00:19:06.280 --> 00:19:06.479 OK, 802 00:19:06.579 --> 00:19:07.319 2020 happens, 803 00:19:07.380 --> 00:19:07.520 OK, 804 00:19:07.630 --> 00:19:08.280 we'll do much better. 805 00:19:08.439 --> 00:19:09.380 They actually do worse. 806 00:19:09.880 --> 00:19:12.339 They actually do worse in 2020 than they did in 2016. 807 00:19:13.099 --> 00:19:14.260 2022 happens, 808 00:19:14.339 --> 00:19:14.979 a midterm. 809 00:19:15.180 --> 00:19:16.739 This is Biden's first midterm. 810 00:19:17.099 --> 00:19:19.219 Polling showing Republicans with a slight lead, 811 00:19:19.250 --> 00:19:20.099 but not overwhelming. 812 00:19:20.219 --> 00:19:21.760 There's rumors of a red wave. 813 00:19:22.099 --> 00:19:23.410 The polls do very well. 814 00:19:23.500 --> 00:19:23.699 Again, 815 00:19:23.819 --> 00:19:25.099 they only missed by less than a point, 816 00:19:25.199 --> 00:19:26.099 0.8 points. 817 00:19:26.380 --> 00:19:26.459 Uh, 818 00:19:26.540 --> 00:19:27.819 they favored Democrats, 819 00:19:28.010 --> 00:19:28.140 uh, 820 00:19:28.250 --> 00:19:30.020 in that by just 0.8 points. 821 00:19:30.569 -->

00:19:33.170 Donald Trump runs again in 2024. 822 00:19:33.579 --> 00:19:34.329 Once again, 823 00:19:34.410 --> 00:19:34.810 you think, 824 00:19:34.979 --> 00:19:35.089 well, 825 00:19:35.170 --> 00:19:36.650 these guys will correct this this time, 826 00:19:37.119 --> 00:19:37.130 right? 827 00:19:37.140 --> 00:19:38.280 They do better than 2020, 828 00:19:38.329 --> 00:19:39.089 I'll give them credit for that. 829 00:19:39.170 --> 00:19:39.880 But again, 830 00:19:40.260 --> 00:19:41.290 another polling error, 831 00:19:41.569 --> 00:19:45.250 another polling error that favors Democrats this time by 2.9 points, 832 00:19:45.290 --> 00:19:46.069 which brings us, 833 00:19:46.250 --> 00:19:46.400 uh, 834 00:19:46.410 --> 00:19:46.849 to today. 835 00:19:46.939 --> 00:19:47.229 So. 836 00:19:47.839 --> 00:19:48.719 Let me show you the history. 837 00:19:48.810 --> 00:19:49.949 This is all the polls, 838 00:19:50.000 --> 00:19:50.170 uh, 839 00:19:50.290 --> 00:19:53.339 from 2000 all the way up to today, 840 00:19:53.609 --> 00:19:55.400 and the range of polling errors. 841 00:19:55.489 --> 00:19:56.689 This is what we're looking at. 842 00:19:56.770 --> 00:19:57.020 Now, 843 00:19:57.569 --> 00:19:59.650 you could in theory have a bigger polling error than either of those, 844 00:19:59.729 --> 00:19:59.959 but, 845 00:20:00.209 --> 00:20:00.449 you know, 846 00:20:00.530 --> 00:20:01.760 to expect that is to, 847 00:20:01.810 --> 00:20:02.199 uh, 848 00:20:02.209 --> 00:20:03.589 to expect something we haven't seen 849 00:20:04.010 --> 00:20:05.109 in 25 years. 850 00:20:05.449 --> 00:20:07.500 Here's what we have seen in 25 years. 851 00:20:07.729 --> 00:20:07.839 Uh, 852 00:20:07.910 --> 00:20:10.109 a 7.5 point spread 853 00:20:10.430 --> 00:20:11.170 between polling errors. 854 00:20:11.209 --> 00:20:15.569 The biggest polling error favoring Democrats was a 4.7 point miss in 2020. 855 00:20:15.790 --> 00:20:20.520 And a 2.8% miss in 2012 was the largest facing Republicans. 856 00:20:20.829 --> 00:20:24.729 So that is kind of what you might expect as a potential 857 00:20:25.010 --> 00:20:25.719 swing here. 858 00:20:25.869 --> 00:20:27.859 A 4.7 points being the high end, 859 00:20:28.150 --> 00:20:29.489 and a 2.8 points 860 00:20:29.630 --> 00:20:32.069 for the Republicans on that high end. 861 00:20:33.109 --> 00:20:33.510 Now, 862 00:20:33.910 --> 00:20:35.349 when you look back at all this data, 863 00:20:35.469 --> 00:20:36.449 what is it telling us? 864 00:20:37.030 --> 00:20:38.150 What's the story here? 865 00:20:40.189 --> 00:20:41.469 The story is that 866 00:20:41.790 --> 00:20:42.650 typically, 867 00:20:43.119 --> 00:20:44.609 more often than not, 868 00:20:45.109 --> 00:20:47.130 polling errors do exist. 869 00:20:47.869 --> 00:20:49.849 And they're significant, 870 00:20:50.260 --> 00:20:51.750 and they favor Democrats. 871 00:20:51.829 --> 00:20:54.030 That's not something you're imagining 872 00:20:54.229 --> 00:20:55.449

if that's the way you feel. 873 00:20:55.869 --> 00:20:58.469 Here's the actual data going back to 2000. 874 00:20:58.819 --> 00:21:00.729 46% of these, 875 00:21:01.069 --> 00:21:01.390 um, 876 00:21:01.430 --> 00:21:02.530 polling errors 877 00:21:02.869 --> 00:21:04.099 favored Democrats, 878 00:21:04.150 --> 00:21:07.089 only 15% favored Republicans. 879 00:21:07.520 --> 00:21:09.170 About 39% 880 00:21:09.589 --> 00:21:10.569 were about right. 881 00:21:10.790 --> 00:21:11.869 So in 13 cycles, 882 00:21:11.949 --> 00:21:13.109 6 of them favored Democrats, 883 00:21:13.229 --> 00:21:14.260 5 of them were about right, 884 00:21:14.300 --> 00:21:16.790 and only 2 of them favored Republicans. 885 00:21:17.260 --> 00:21:18.160 You see that split. 886 00:21:18.349 --> 00:21:18.510 Now, 887 00:21:18.599 --> 00:21:19.770 that includes 888 00:21:20.030 --> 00:21:21.050 presidential years. 889 00:21:21.150 --> 00:21:24.030 When you take out the presidential years and only look at the midterms, 890 00:21:24.199 --> 00:21:25.349 this is what the numbers look like, 891 00:21:25.390 --> 00:21:26.170 and they're gonna be, 892 00:21:26.510 --> 00:21:26.709 uh, 893 00:21:26.829 --> 00:21:26.989 you know, 894 00:21:27.069 --> 00:21:28.369 maybe shocking to some people. 895 00:21:28.829 --> 00:21:30.949 33% favored Democrats, 896 00:21:31.270 --> 00:21:33.449 67% were about right, 897 00:21:33.949 --> 00:21:35.160 0% 898 00:21:35.270 --> 00:21:36.109 favored Republicans. 899 00:21:36.310 --> 00:21:36.750 So we have, 900 00:21:37.030 --> 00:21:39.689 since 2000 have had not had one significant 901 00:21:39.689 --> 00:21:42.550 polling miss that favored Republicans in the midterms. 902 00:21:42.709 --> 00:21:43.589 That's important to note. 903 00:21:44.130 --> 00:21:45.800 The other important note here is, 904 00:21:45.810 --> 00:21:47.329 most of the time in midterms, 905 00:21:47.609 --> 00:21:48.849 the polls have been good. 906 00:21:52.750 --> 00:21:55.869 The idea that this is a polling this favoring Republicans, 907 00:21:56.229 --> 00:21:57.420 very unlikely. 908 00:21:57.709 --> 00:21:58.739 It's a small sample size, 909 00:21:58.790 --> 00:21:59.060 but it's, 910 00:21:59.099 --> 00:22:01.189 it's unlikely as we can come up with in the data. 911 00:22:02.030 --> 00:22:02.469 However, 912 00:22:02.550 --> 00:22:05.869 the most likely outcome in a midterm election over this, 913 00:22:05.949 --> 00:22:07.150 over this time period 914 00:22:07.349 --> 00:22:08.369 has been 915 00:22:08.989 --> 00:22:09.469 that 916 00:22:09.790 --> 00:22:11.189 the polls are just pretty good. 917 00:22:12.630 --> 00:22:13.229 So 918 00:22:14.489 --> 00:22:17.030 Looking at this and seeing what these polls mean, 919 00:22:17.239 --> 00:22:18.800 where do we stand right now? 920 00:22:19.000 --> 00:22:19.400 I think it's, 921 00:22:19.479 --> 00:22:19.640 you know, 922 00:22:19.800 --> 00:22:20.479 we're going through that, 923 00:22:20.560 --> 00:22:20.869 uh, 924 00:22:21.000 --> 00:22:21.079 that, 925 00:22:21.160 --> 00:22:22.780 that archive from the silver bulletin. 926 00:22:23.000 --> 00:22:24.650 Let's look at their generic ballot code. 927 00:22:24.800 --> 00:22:27.420 So you had a couple of polls that had it at 11 points earlier, 928 00:22:27.589 --> 00:22:29.079 but what's the actual average here? 929 00:22:29.160 --> 00:22:30.380 The average right now 930 00:22:30.640 --> 00:22:32.800 is about 9.2 points. 931 00:22:33.545 --> 00:22:34.915 Democrats at 50.5%, 932 00:22:35.464 --> 00:22:37.864 Republicans at 41.3%, 933 00:22:37.984 --> 00:22:40.334 really on the fringes of the margins of error, 934 00:22:40.344 --> 00:22:41.125 you can see 935 00:22:41.344 --> 00:22:42.324 in this particular 936 00:22:42.505 --> 00:22:43.244 graphic. 937 00:22:43.464 --> 00:22:45.135 50.5 to 41.3%, 938 00:22:45.224 --> 00:22:50.405 so a 9.2% advantage for 939 00:22:51.064 --> 00:22:51.604 Democrats. 940 00:22:52.224 --> 00:22:53.444 How would that work 941 00:22:53.584 --> 00:22:54.505 with a polling error? 942 00:22:55.290 --> 00:22:56.849 This is how important this stuff is. 943 00:22:57.140 --> 00:22:58.479 Cause the polling error here 944 00:22:58.650 --> 00:22:59.859 can be the entire game, 945 00:23:00.060 --> 00:23:01.439 can be the entire ball game 946 00:23:01.609 --> 00:23:02.680 when it comes to control. 947 00:23:02.780 --> 00:23:03.180 OK. 948 00:23:03.380 --> 00:23:03.780 This is, 949 00:23:03.849 --> 00:23:04.489 uh, 950 00:23:04.500 --> 00:23:04.780 the, 951 00:23:04.939 --> 00:23:05.280 what 952 00:23:05.459 --> 00:23:07.300 the likely outcome would be 953 00:23:07.540 --> 00:23:08.599 if we have, 954 00:23:08.660 --> 00:23:08.969 um, 955 00:23:09.099 --> 00:23:11.369 a generic ballot falling in different ranges. 956 00:23:11.540 --> 00:23:11.839 So, 957 00:23:11.979 --> 00:23:13.119 if you look at this chart, 958 00:23:13.540 --> 00:23:14.780 between 9 and 10 points, 959 00:23:14.819 --> 00:23:15.910 which is where we are. 960 00:23:16.420 --> 00:23:17.869 The Democrats have a, 961 00:23:18.030 --> 00:23:20.189 if that is the real number in real life, 962 00:23:20.469 --> 00:23:21.430 when it comes to Senate seats, 963 00:23:21.510 --> 00:23:24.530 the Democrats have a 98% chance of winning the Senate. 964 00:23:24.790 --> 00:23:25.819 So if this polling is right, 965 00:23:25.910 --> 00:23:27.150 there's no polling error, 966 00:23:27.469 --> 00:23:29.650 the Democrats have a 98% chance 967 00:23:29.949 --> 00:23:31.689 of winning the Senate according to this data. 968 00:23:32.030 --> 00:23:34.589 They would average about 54 seats. 969 00:23:34.829 --> 00:23:35.969 So you are talking. 970 00:23:37.180 --> 00:23:38.900 Blue wave territory for sure. 971 00:23:38.979 --> 00:23:40.680 Does this count as blue tsunami? 972 00:23:40.890 --> 00:23:41.000 I mean, 973 00:23:41.060 --> 00:23:42.420 it's basically 2018. 974 00:23:43.189 --> 00:23:44.119 So you would say it, 975 00:23:44.140 -->

00:23:46.790 it is a very bad outcome for Republicans. 976 00:23:47.699 --> 00:23:50.060 Maybe not blue tsunami territory and maybe not 977 00:23:50.060 --> 00:23:51.920 the most catastrophic outcome we've ever seen, 978 00:23:52.020 --> 00:23:52.510 but very bad. 979 00:23:52.619 --> 00:23:53.979 Maybe not as bad as 2006. 980 00:23:54.810 --> 00:23:56.449 If you happen to have a rep uh, 981 00:23:56.489 --> 00:23:57.010 uh, 982 00:23:57.020 --> 00:23:57.319 uh, 983 00:23:57.329 --> 00:23:59.609 a polling error that favors Republicans, 984 00:23:59.689 --> 00:23:59.969 so 985 00:24:00.250 --> 00:24:02.069 the polls are better for Republicans 986 00:24:02.369 --> 00:24:03.430 than they wind up being. 987 00:24:04.050 --> 00:24:05.310 And we see movement. 988 00:24:05.449 --> 00:24:07.050 The biggest way that could go is, 989 00:24:07.170 --> 00:24:08.079 uh, 990 00:24:08.130 --> 00:24:10.069 through history would be a 2.8% 991 00:24:10.239 --> 00:24:12.069 polling error that would bring that up to 992 00:24:12.369 --> 00:24:13.829 about 12 points, 993 00:24:14.290 --> 00:24:17.390 about where those first couple of polls were that we talked about today. 994 00:24:17.689 --> 00:24:18.849 If that does happen, 995 00:24:19.089 --> 00:24:21.130 you're looking at a basically 100% chance, 996 00:24:21.250 --> 00:24:21.969 bring up that last graphic, 997 00:24:22.050 --> 00:24:23.150 100% chance. 998 00:24:23.560 --> 00:24:23.910 Um, 999 00:24:23.959 --> 00:24:24.140 uh, 1000 00:24:24.280 --> 00:24:26.260 for the Republicans to lose the Senate 1001 00:24:26.439 --> 00:24:28.079 and about 55 seats, 1002 00:24:28.280 --> 00:24:28.560 which is, 1003 00:24:28.640 --> 00:24:28.760 you know, 1004 00:24:28.839 --> 00:24:29.199 55, 1005 00:24:29.280 --> 00:24:30.959 56 is basically the maximum 1006 00:24:31.160 --> 00:24:31.979 you can see, 1007 00:24:32.219 --> 00:24:32.359 uh, 1008 00:24:32.439 --> 00:24:33.459 with any realistic, 1009 00:24:33.650 --> 00:24:34.119 um, 1010 00:24:34.199 --> 00:24:35.060 possibility. 1011 00:24:35.319 --> 00:24:35.520 Uh, 1012 00:24:35.680 --> 00:24:35.910 now, 1013 00:24:36.180 --> 00:24:36.280 again, 1014 00:24:36.349 --> 00:24:38.300 we haven't seen any midterm polling 1015 00:24:38.640 --> 00:24:39.760 misses toward Republicans, 1016 00:24:39.849 --> 00:24:40.199 so 1017 00:24:40.400 --> 00:24:41.109 this is unlikely, 1018 00:24:41.160 --> 00:24:43.079 but this is the ranges of outcomes. 1019 00:24:43.829 --> 00:24:45.150 If you go down the other way though, 1020 00:24:45.229 --> 00:24:46.469 this is the one that everyone's talking about. 1021 00:24:46.510 --> 00:24:47.829 This is what you're probably thinking right now. 1022 00:24:47.910 --> 00:24:48.439 Wait a minute. 1023 00:24:48.670 --> 00:24:50.250 What about if Democrats 1024 00:24:50.390 --> 00:24:50.890 are the, 1025 00:24:51.069 --> 00:24:51.310 uh, 1026 00:24:51.390 --> 00:24:51.849 the 1027 00:24:52.069 --> 00:24:53.089 beneficiary 1028 00:24:53.229 --> 00:24:55.010 of a polling error? 1029 00:24:55.430 --> 00:24:57.750 The average polling error or maybe the maximum. 1030 00:24:57.790 --> 00:24:58.869 Let's do the maximum. 1031 00:24:59.310 --> 00:25:00.739 If we get the polling error, 1032 00:25:00.949 --> 00:25:01.910 the biggest one that we've seen, 1033 00:25:01.949 --> 00:25:03.449 that was the 2020 election, 1034 00:25:04.069 --> 00:25:06.109 a 4.7 point polling miss, 1035 00:25:06.349 --> 00:25:09.949 that would bring the Republicans from this Democrat 9 to 10. 1036 00:25:10.359 --> 00:25:12.910 To the Democrat plus 4 to 5 area. 1037 00:25:13.089 --> 00:25:14.449 If they get into that area, 1038 00:25:14.609 --> 00:25:16.030 around 4.5 points, 1039 00:25:16.489 --> 00:25:18.579 the Republicans are now favored 1040 00:25:18.729 --> 00:25:19.290 in the Senate. 1041 00:25:20.000 --> 00:25:21.189 2 to 1 favorites in the Senate, 1042 00:25:21.229 --> 00:25:22.079 a 60, 1043 00:25:22.270 --> 00:25:22.510 what is it? 1044 00:25:22.550 --> 00:25:22.989 61, 1045 00:25:23.050 --> 00:25:23.989 62%. 1046 00:25:24.479 --> 00:25:24.790 Uh, 1047 00:25:24.959 --> 00:25:26.020 favorite in the Senate. 1048 00:25:26.439 --> 00:25:29.380 Likely that we're looking at there a 50/50 Senate, 1049 00:25:29.560 --> 00:25:30.300 where you have, 1050 00:25:30.359 --> 00:25:30.790 uh, 1051 00:25:30.800 --> 00:25:32.599 JD Vance breaking that tie. 1052 00:25:32.880 --> 00:25:34.119 So if you look at it this way, 1053 00:25:34.439 --> 00:25:35.869 best case scenario, 1054 00:25:36.119 --> 00:25:38.380 the Republicans are the favorite in the Senate. 1055 00:25:38.719 --> 00:25:41.420 They hold the Senate with 50 or 51 seats, 1056 00:25:41.670 --> 00:25:41.959 um, 1057 00:25:42.119 --> 00:25:44.119 and that's if the polls are in that, 1058 00:25:44.239 --> 00:25:45.420 in that sort of error 1059 00:25:45.560 --> 00:25:46.319 that favors, 1060 00:25:46.439 --> 00:25:46.550 uh, 1061 00:25:46.630 --> 00:25:49.020 that has been favoring Democrats through the polling season, 1062 00:25:49.319 --> 00:25:51.160 and we see better results for Republicans. 1063 00:25:51.359 --> 00:25:52.280 If you go the opposite way, 1064 00:25:52.400 --> 00:25:54.079 obviously it gets massively catastrophic. 1065 00:25:54.479 --> 00:25:55.520 So the question is, 1066 00:25:55.640 --> 00:25:55.800 you know, 1067 00:25:55.920 --> 00:25:56.430 does the poll, 1068 00:25:56.599 --> 00:25:57.680 should we be sitting here to, 1069 00:25:57.800 --> 00:25:58.219 you know, 1070 00:25:58.479 --> 00:25:58.630 like, 1071 00:25:58.719 --> 00:25:59.079 oh gosh, 1072 00:25:59.150 --> 00:26:00.280 the polling error will save us. 1073 00:26:01.810 --> 00:26:01.959 I mean, 1074 00:26:02.010 --> 00:26:02.369 the question, 1075 00:26:02.449 --> 00:26:02.969 the answer to that is, 1076 00:26:03.050 --> 00:26:03.239 is a, 1077 00:26:03.319 --> 00:26:04.469 is a big fat maybe. 1078 00:26:05.250 --> 00:26:05.449 You know, 1079 00:26:05.530 --> 00:26:10.530 there's about

1 out of 3 chance that the polling error is telling 1080 00:26:10.530 --> 00:26:13.030 you the Democrats are going to do better than they actually are. 1081 00:26:13.900 --> 00:26:14.839 In midterms. 1082 00:26:15.020 --> 00:26:16.540 If you look at the data from, 1083 00:26:16.579 --> 00:26:16.869 uh, 1084 00:26:17.020 --> 00:26:17.979 from all elections, 1085 00:26:18.060 --> 00:26:19.300 that number's a little bit higher. 1086 00:26:19.380 --> 00:26:20.819 It's about 1 in 2. 1087 00:26:21.869 --> 00:26:24.510 So somewhere between 1 and 2 and 1 and 3 chance 1088 00:26:24.680 --> 00:26:26.199 that a polling error will make 1089 00:26:26.670 --> 00:26:27.060 the, 1090 00:26:27.069 --> 00:26:27.540 uh, 1091 00:26:27.550 --> 00:26:31.510 the situation improve for Republicans from the data that you're seeing here. 1092 00:26:31.750 --> 00:26:33.290 If that does happen, 1093 00:26:33.550 --> 00:26:35.380 you're looking at a much better chance, 1094 00:26:35.540 --> 00:26:35.790 in fact, 1095 00:26:35.869 --> 00:26:38.410 all the way up to maybe Republicans are 2 to 1 favorites 1096 00:26:38.589 --> 00:26:39.270 in the Senate. 1097 00:26:39.989 --> 00:26:41.209 Massive range there, 1098 00:26:41.469 --> 00:26:45.750 but we should see and should understand what we're looking at and what we are coming, 1099 00:26:45.949 --> 00:26:47.229 the point that we're coming from. 1100 00:26:47.640 --> 00:26:48.439 Which is a point of, 1101 00:26:48.520 --> 00:26:48.680 look, 1102 00:26:49.000 --> 00:26:50.099 Democrats are favorite here. 1103 00:26:50.199 --> 00:26:52.099 They are heavy favorites to win in the House. 1104 00:26:52.479 --> 00:26:53.989 They are favorites to win in the Senate. 1105 00:26:54.199 --> 00:26:56.219 They are favorites in a lot of these close races. 1106 00:26:56.439 --> 00:26:57.579 That does not mean 1107 00:26:58.239 --> 00:26:59.400 that the die is cast. 1108 00:26:59.959 --> 00:27:01.069 And it does not mean if you are a 1109 00:27:01.069 --> 00:27:03.479 person who wants Republicans and conservatives to win, 1110 00:27:03.550 --> 00:27:06.140 it does not mean you should just give up and not go to the polls. 1111 00:27:06.479 --> 00:27:06.579 Uh, 1112 00:27:06.670 --> 00:27:06.920 in fact, 1113 00:27:07.040 --> 00:27:08.969 you're needed at the polls probably more than ever, 1114 00:27:09.439 --> 00:27:10.910 because if you don't go to the polls, 1115 00:27:11.189 --> 00:27:12.079 these blue wave, 1116 00:27:12.239 --> 00:27:15.479 blue tsunami situations are realistic possibilities. 1117 00:27:15.939 --> 00:27:19.170 This is not just some crazy media concoction. 1118 00:27:19.510 --> 00:27:21.880 This is a thing that could actually happen, 1119 00:27:22.140 --> 00:27:22.560 and 1120 00:27:22.780 --> 00:27:23.339 honestly, 1121 00:27:23.540 --> 00:27:26.500 some of the data indicates it's likely to happen. 1122 00:27:27.449 --> 00:27:30.130 So if you want that to not occur, 1123 00:27:30.369 --> 00:27:32.750 the things that you could be doing to help 1124 00:27:33.000 --> 00:27:35.050 in a situation like this are really, 1125 00:27:35.170 --> 00:27:36.109 really important. 1126 00:27:36.489 --> 00:27:37.310 Be active, 1127 00:27:38.130 --> 00:27:40.250 try to convince people to change their minds if that's up, 1128 00:27:40.369 --> 00:27:41.569 if that's something that you want. 1129 00:27:41.729 --> 00:27:42.729 If you're someone on the, 1130 00:27:42.810 --> 00:27:43.599 on the left and you're like, 1131 00:27:43.650 --> 00:27:44.089 I love this, 1132 00:27:44.199 --> 00:27:44.359 you know, 1133 00:27:44.449 --> 00:27:44.640 I mean, 1134 00:27:44.729 --> 00:27:45.150 look, 1135 00:27:45.489 --> 00:27:46.209 you're at a situation, 1136 00:27:46.250 --> 00:27:46.489 I, 1137 00:27:46.569 --> 00:27:46.890 you know, 1138 00:27:46.969 --> 00:27:48.209 I don't like your policies all that much, 1139 00:27:48.329 --> 00:27:48.569 so. 1140 00:27:49.400 --> 00:27:50.239 maybe you could stay home. 1141 00:27:50.319 --> 00:27:50.380 No, 1142 00:27:50.439 --> 00:27:50.750 I'm not. 1143 00:27:51.119 --> 00:27:51.910 You do what you wanna do. 1144 00:27:52.160 --> 00:27:54.390 My point here though is when it comes to the elections, 1145 00:27:54.640 --> 00:27:56.260 being active is always a good idea. 1146 00:27:56.520 --> 00:27:57.780 When it comes to prediction markets, 1147 00:27:57.839 --> 00:27:59.819 it's about guarding these positions. 1148 00:28:00.079 --> 00:28:01.560 You don't want to be in a position 1149 00:28:01.800 --> 00:28:03.489 where you blow off the polls and say, 1150 00:28:03.599 --> 00:28:03.790 well, 1151 00:28:03.880 --> 00:28:05.439 I've got a guy who's in the Republicans, 1152 00:28:05.540 --> 00:28:05.550 uh, 1153 00:28:05.849 --> 00:28:05.859 yeah, 1154 00:28:05.920 --> 00:28:06.050 it's, 1155 00:28:06.119 --> 00:28:06.680 it's Kansas, 1156 00:28:06.880 --> 00:28:08.430 what are the chances of me losing? 1157 00:28:08.839 --> 00:28:09.000 Well, 1158 00:28:09.079 --> 00:28:10.359 the chances of you losing, 1159 00:28:10.430 --> 00:28:10.859 are there, 1160 00:28:10.920 --> 00:28:11.599 they're real. 1161 00:28:12.040 --> 00:28:12.400 So, 1162 00:28:12.520 --> 00:28:12.800 if you, 1163 00:28:12.859 --> 00:28:15.000 you should shield yourself from some of those, 1164 00:28:15.520 --> 00:28:17.079 watch the size of those positions. 1165 00:28:17.119 --> 00:28:19.579 If you've been really aggressive in a state that's more, 1166 00:28:20.400 --> 00:28:21.869 making you more nervous, 1167 00:28:22.280 --> 00:28:24.099 don't just deny the new data, 1168 00:28:24.479 --> 00:28:25.189 adjust, 1169 00:28:25.520 --> 00:28:25.839 right? 1170 00:28:26.119 --> 00:28:27.560 Maybe trim some of that position. 1171 00:28:27.599 --> 00:28:30.510 I've talked to you about what I did on Monday's show, 1172 00:28:30.739 --> 00:28:32.839 trimming about 5 or 6 positions 1173 00:28:33.040 --> 00:28:34.699 that I thought were in a risky spot, 1174 00:28:34.709 --> 00:28:38.000 and

taking that money and allocating it to places I feel better about. 1175 00:28:38.560 --> 00:28:38.800 Yeah, 1176 00:28:39.119 --> 00:28:39.239 sure, 1177 00:28:39.319 --> 00:28:40.989 I took a little bit of a short-term loss there. 1178 00:28:41.130 --> 00:28:43.020 I wanna make it up in another place where I can, 1179 00:28:43.199 --> 00:28:43.400 I'm, 1180 00:28:43.479 --> 00:28:44.500 I'm much more confident. 1181 00:28:45.079 --> 00:28:46.589 If you can do that and you can kinda keep your, 1182 00:28:46.680 --> 00:28:47.239 your balance, 1183 00:28:47.319 --> 00:28:47.550 uh, 1184 00:28:47.560 --> 00:28:50.439 your portfolio balanced to a place where you understand 1185 00:28:50.709 --> 00:28:52.380 that you are not just saying, 1186 00:28:52.520 --> 00:28:54.079 I know this is going to happen, 1187 00:28:54.160 --> 00:28:54.680 but you're saying, 1188 00:28:54.760 --> 00:28:56.560 I think this range is gonna happen. 1189 00:28:56.640 --> 00:28:58.660 I wanna be safe in this entire range. 1190 00:28:59.000 --> 00:29:00.199 When you think that way, 1191 00:29:00.359 --> 00:29:01.619 you're much more likely 1192 00:29:01.760 --> 00:29:02.859 to have consistent, 1193 00:29:03.199 --> 00:29:03.430 uh, 1194 00:29:03.439 --> 00:29:04.420 positive outcomes 1195 00:29:04.530 --> 00:29:05.670 when it comes to these elections. 1196 00:29:05.880 --> 00:29:06.000 Look, 1197 00:29:06.109 --> 00:29:07.800 all this stuff is up at predictableShow.com. 1198 00:29:07.880 --> 00:29:08.280 I want you to be 1199 00:29:08.425 --> 00:29:08.714 Able to see it. 1200 00:29:08.724 --> 00:29:10.214 I want you to be able to use these tools. 1201 00:29:10.444 --> 00:29:10.604 Uh, 1202 00:29:10.685 --> 00:29:12.635 the predictable mid-term consensus is up there. 1203 00:29:12.844 --> 00:29:14.555 We've got the Republican freakout Index. 1204 00:29:14.625 --> 00:29:16.704 I'll put up some of this data as well at some point here 1205 00:29:16.964 --> 00:29:17.744 in the coming days. 1206 00:29:17.885 --> 00:29:19.314 I want you to have all the tools that I have, 1207 00:29:19.405 --> 00:29:19.555 uh, 1208 00:29:19.604 --> 00:29:20.704 to trade these markets, 1209 00:29:20.964 --> 00:29:21.084 uh, 1210 00:29:21.194 --> 00:29:23.084 and we've done pretty well over the primaries. 1211 00:29:23.165 --> 00:29:24.875 We've done pretty well in history. 1212 00:29:25.125 --> 00:29:25.435 So, 1213 00:29:25.604 --> 00:29:26.064 you know, 1214 00:29:26.444 --> 00:29:28.964 we hope we continue that here in a couple of weeks. 1215 00:29:29.165 --> 00:29:29.324 OK, 1216 00:29:29.435 --> 00:29:29.964 we're gonna take a break, 1217 00:29:30.125 --> 00:29:31.405 come back on the other side, 1218 00:29:31.765 --> 00:29:32.314 cause I just said, 1219 00:29:32.405 --> 00:29:32.525 hey, 1220 00:29:32.625 --> 00:29:33.005 polls, 1221 00:29:33.204 --> 00:29:33.324 you know, 1222 00:29:33.405 --> 00:29:33.625 you 1223 00:29:33.765 --> 00:29:34.765 can't completely dismiss them. 1224 00:29:34.805 --> 00:29:37.064 You need to know what they are and you need to understand what they mean. 1225 00:29:37.689 --> 00:29:39.079 Sometimes you can completely dismiss them. 1226 00:29:39.239 --> 00:29:40.760 We'll tell you a story about that next. 1227 00:29:56.869 --> 00:29:56.979 Look, 1228 00:29:57.020 --> 00:29:57.829 if you're looking for hope, 1229 00:29:57.979 --> 00:29:58.209 uh, 1230 00:29:58.300 --> 00:29:59.459 on the Republican side, 1231 00:29:59.569 --> 00:29:59.739 you know, 1232 00:30:00.250 --> 00:30:01.300 maybe all the polls are fake. 1233 00:30:01.420 --> 00:30:02.680 Maybe they're all completely made up from scratch. 1234 00:30:05.180 --> 00:30:05.290 Now, 1235 00:30:05.300 --> 00:30:06.959 you might say that sounds ridiculous, 1236 00:30:07.050 --> 00:30:07.339 um, 1237 00:30:07.469 --> 00:30:07.959 but 1238 00:30:08.459 --> 00:30:08.699 first of all, 1239 00:30:08.819 --> 00:30:09.660 you're probably not saying that. 1240 00:30:09.709 --> 00:30:10.219 But secondly, 1241 00:30:10.339 --> 00:30:10.670 what if, 1242 00:30:11.260 --> 00:30:11.619 uh, 1243 00:30:11.689 --> 00:30:12.839 it kind of sounds ridiculous, 1244 00:30:12.930 --> 00:30:13.140 right? 1245 00:30:13.300 --> 00:30:13.420 They're, 1246 00:30:13.530 --> 00:30:15.250 they're at least calling people and asking them the questions, 1247 00:30:15.329 --> 00:30:15.520 right? 1248 00:30:15.780 --> 00:30:15.890 Well, 1249 00:30:15.979 --> 00:30:16.500 maybe not, 1250 00:30:16.579 --> 00:30:17.650 at least in some cases, 1251 00:30:17.729 --> 00:30:17.880 uh, 1252 00:30:17.900 --> 00:30:21.250 fake polling firm duped media in social experiment. 1253 00:30:21.540 --> 00:30:21.650 Now, 1254 00:30:21.660 --> 00:30:22.459 this is interesting, 1255 00:30:22.540 --> 00:30:23.319 they went through, 1256 00:30:23.780 --> 00:30:23.849 uh, 1257 00:30:23.890 --> 00:30:25.900 this is a place called Wedgewood Polls. 1258 00:30:26.319 --> 00:30:27.150 And Wedgwood polls, 1259 00:30:27.160 --> 00:30:27.719 I'd seen them. 1260 00:30:27.760 --> 00:30:28.900 I'd never heard of them before. 1261 00:30:29.319 --> 00:30:29.660 Um, 1262 00:30:29.680 --> 00:30:31.189 I had seen them pop up in polls. 1263 00:30:31.199 --> 00:30:32.869 We probably mentioned one or two other polls. 1264 00:30:32.920 --> 00:30:34.520 I don't remember if we did as we were running through a 1265 00:30:34.520 --> 00:30:36.380 list of polls that were on the New York Times or whatever. 1266 00:30:36.800 --> 00:30:37.030 Um, 1267 00:30:37.119 --> 00:30:38.319 I had seen them before a couple of times, 1268 00:30:38.430 --> 00:30:38.640 I be like, 1269 00:30:38.709 --> 00:30:40.239 that's a weird result and kind of just, 1270 00:30:40.290 --> 00:30:40.439 you know, 1271 00:30:40.660 --> 00:30:40.760 just, 1272 00:30:40.920 --> 00:30:41.439 you don't know. 1273 00:30:41.560 --> 00:30:41.640 I, 1274 00:30:41.719 --> 00:30:41.959 I mean, 1275 00:30:42.000 --> 00:30:42.160 I'm, 1276 00:30:42.270 --> 00:30:43.079 I'm not calling

these people. 1277 00:30:43.160 --> 00:30:43.839 I'm not doing this, 1278 00:30:43.959 --> 00:30:44.400 this, 1279 00:30:44.680 --> 00:30:45.069 this, 1280 00:30:45.079 --> 00:30:45.109 uh, 1281 00:30:45.119 --> 00:30:45.479 backend. 1282 00:30:45.770 --> 00:30:46.000 You, 1283 00:30:46.119 --> 00:30:50.020 you'd think there's some backend research as to whether these polls are real or not. 1284 00:30:50.439 --> 00:30:50.859 Um, 1285 00:30:51.560 --> 00:30:52.380 these people, 1286 00:30:52.430 --> 00:30:52.680 uh, 1287 00:30:52.800 --> 00:30:53.680 in organizations, 1288 00:30:53.790 --> 00:30:55.400 50+1 is one of them. 1289 00:30:55.729 --> 00:30:56.189 Um, 1290 00:30:56.310 --> 00:30:56.550 uh, 1291 00:30:56.989 --> 00:30:58.810 says that they did do some backup. 1292 00:30:58.930 --> 00:31:00.229 They did do some checking. 1293 00:31:00.489 --> 00:31:00.609 Uh, 1294 00:31:00.689 --> 00:31:02.010 they found that the people running them 1295 00:31:02.010 --> 00:31:04.949 had experience in the polling industry previously, 1296 00:31:05.290 --> 00:31:05.650 and, 1297 00:31:05.689 --> 00:31:05.930 uh, 1298 00:31:06.050 --> 00:31:06.199 you know, 1299 00:31:06.290 --> 00:31:07.969 did the basic checks and look, 1300 00:31:08.089 --> 00:31:10.089 read their methodology statement and all of that and, 1301 00:31:10.199 --> 00:31:10.459 and said, 1302 00:31:10.530 --> 00:31:10.689 OK, 1303 00:31:10.729 --> 00:31:12.920 it looks like they're good enough to include in our polling averages. 1304 00:31:13.449 --> 00:31:14.089 To their credit, 1305 00:31:14.209 --> 00:31:16.079 they kept looking at this to try to figure out, 1306 00:31:16.170 --> 00:31:16.489 wait a minute, 1307 00:31:16.550 --> 00:31:17.719 this doesn't seem right, 1308 00:31:17.930 --> 00:31:19.569 and eventually caught Wedgwood, 1309 00:31:19.810 --> 00:31:20.000 um, 1310 00:31:20.099 --> 00:31:21.540 manufacturing data. 1311 00:31:21.910 --> 00:31:22.380 Um, 1312 00:31:22.619 --> 00:31:26.300 and it's a long story about how they did it with like identification numbers and, 1313 00:31:26.560 --> 00:31:26.800 um, 1314 00:31:26.920 --> 00:31:27.040 you know, 1315 00:31:27.160 --> 00:31:31.500 internal numbers of the polling place that actually did the supposed calls. 1316 00:31:31.719 --> 00:31:33.719 They could tell that they were manufactured numbers. 1317 00:31:33.880 --> 00:31:34.280 I honestly, 1318 00:31:34.319 --> 00:31:36.500 it was a pretty good detective project by them, 1319 00:31:36.760 --> 00:31:38.589 but they did eventually figure this out. 1320 00:31:38.880 --> 00:31:39.180 And, 1321 00:31:39.310 --> 00:31:39.589 uh, 1322 00:31:39.670 --> 00:31:40.520 and once they did, 1323 00:31:40.599 --> 00:31:40.900 they 1324 00:31:41.040 --> 00:31:41.599 called them and said, 1325 00:31:41.680 --> 00:31:41.800 hey, 1326 00:31:41.880 --> 00:31:42.119 wait a minute, 1327 00:31:42.199 --> 00:31:43.359 you're gonna give us some comment on this? 1328 00:31:43.430 --> 00:31:43.510 I, 1329

00:31:43.719 --> 00:31:43.790 of course, 1330 00:31:43.959 --> 00:31:45.719 we're about to do a story about how you're fake. 1331 00:31:45.959 --> 00:31:47.939 And then Wedgwood did not reply. 1332 00:31:48.910 --> 00:31:50.089 I think they did reply with FU, 1333 00:31:51.689 --> 00:31:52.890 which I think is actually real, 1334 00:31:53.229 --> 00:31:53.430 um, 1335 00:31:53.510 --> 00:31:53.810 but 1336 00:31:54.030 --> 00:31:54.219 they, 1337 00:31:54.260 --> 00:31:54.489 uh, 1338 00:31:54.500 --> 00:31:56.780 replied with this message on social media. 1339 00:31:57.030 --> 00:31:58.020 They say Wedgwood polling, 1340 00:31:58.030 --> 00:32:00.780 an experimental project to determine the vulnerabilities, 1341 00:32:00.949 --> 00:32:01.739 lack of oversight, 1342 00:32:01.790 --> 00:32:04.729 and overall low barrier to entry in the modern polling industry, 1343 00:32:05.150 --> 00:32:06.349 makes this public statement. 1344 00:32:06.670 --> 00:32:06.829 We, 1345 00:32:06.900 --> 00:32:07.089 uh, 1346 00:32:07.189 --> 00:32:07.469 basically, 1347 00:32:07.530 --> 00:32:08.189 they basically said, 1348 00:32:08.270 --> 00:32:08.469 look, 1349 00:32:08.550 --> 00:32:09.349 we just. 1350 00:32:09.800 --> 00:32:10.770 We had no history, 1351 00:32:10.880 --> 00:32:12.329 we had no credentials, 1352 00:32:12.650 --> 00:32:15.359 we had no data behind the vast majority of our releases, 1353 00:32:15.640 --> 00:32:18.609 and yet the New York Times and 50+1 and VoteHub 1354 00:32:18.810 --> 00:32:21.569 all repeatedly treated us as a legitimate polling source. 1355 00:32:21.650 --> 00:32:22.510 So they're basically saying like, 1356 00:32:22.530 --> 00:32:24.150 we did this on purpose to show 1357 00:32:24.489 --> 00:32:25.430 how bad 1358 00:32:25.609 --> 00:32:26.880 the information system is. 1359 00:32:27.079 --> 00:32:27.089 Uh, 1360 00:32:27.130 --> 00:32:27.290 you know, 1361 00:32:27.449 --> 00:32:29.060 part of me likes those types of things, 1362 00:32:29.239 --> 00:32:29.569 honestly, 1363 00:32:29.650 --> 00:32:29.770 like, 1364 00:32:29.810 --> 00:32:32.030 I like when people do that and they screw with the media. 1365 00:32:33.160 --> 00:32:33.520 But I mean, 1366 00:32:33.599 --> 00:32:33.910 also, 1367 00:32:33.959 --> 00:32:35.380 I don't really like it that much, 1368 00:32:35.510 --> 00:32:35.640 you know, 1369 00:32:35.719 --> 00:32:36.420 it's like you, 1370 00:32:36.640 --> 00:32:36.920 it's, 1371 00:32:37.040 --> 00:32:37.280 it's, 1372 00:32:37.310 --> 00:32:37.760 uh. 1373 00:32:39.359 --> 00:32:41.829 Our information diet is crappy enough as it is. 1374 00:32:42.079 --> 00:32:42.709 I will say, 1375 00:32:42.719 --> 00:32:43.180 one of the, 1376 00:32:43.359 --> 00:32:44.400 the secrets of this game, 1377 00:32:44.479 --> 00:32:45.400 if you're in here and you're, 1378 00:32:45.520 --> 00:32:45.949 you're like, 1379 00:32:46.020 --> 00:32:46.160 I, 1380 00:32:46.280 --> 00:32:46.439 you know, 1381 00:32:46.520 --> 00:32:47.520

I love prediction markets. 1382 00:32:47.599 --> 00:32:47.800 I am, 1383 00:32:47.880 --> 00:32:48.000 you know, 1384 00:32:48.079 --> 00:32:48.199 I, 1385 00:32:48.280 --> 00:32:49.699 I wanna try to figure this stuff out. 1386 00:32:50.439 --> 00:32:52.140 One of the ways you do this 1387 00:32:52.400 --> 00:32:55.420 is by trying to suss through bad data, 1388 00:32:55.680 --> 00:32:55.800 right? 1389 00:32:55.880 --> 00:32:59.140 Like looking at a report and trying to understand 1390 00:32:59.520 --> 00:33:01.119 which parts are good and which parts are bad, 1391 00:33:01.229 --> 00:33:01.880 which polls are good, 1392 00:33:01.989 --> 00:33:02.640 which polls are bad, 1393 00:33:02.760 --> 00:33:03.359 which data is good, 1394 00:33:03.479 --> 00:33:04.319 which data is bad. 1395 00:33:04.670 --> 00:33:05.469 That's the whole game. 1396 00:33:05.550 --> 00:33:08.569 It's why prediction markets typically outperform polls 1397 00:33:09.109 --> 00:33:10.750 because they are taking into account, 1398 00:33:10.869 --> 00:33:11.300 wait a minute, 1399 00:33:11.390 --> 00:33:12.609 I don't believe that. 1400 00:33:12.869 --> 00:33:15.030 I don't believe that internal poll that shows 1401 00:33:15.030 --> 00:33:17.910 the Democrat up by 19 points in Alabama. 1402 00:33:18.069 --> 00:33:19.050 I don't buy it. 1403 00:33:19.550 --> 00:33:19.670 You know, 1404 00:33:19.750 --> 00:33:21.099 if you just believe polls straight, 1405 00:33:21.229 --> 00:33:22.910 you wind up with information that's terrible, 1406 00:33:22.949 --> 00:33:23.530 and in this case, 1407 00:33:23.709 --> 00:33:23.869 really, 1408 00:33:23.989 --> 00:33:24.430 really bad. 1409 00:33:24.510 --> 00:33:24.630 Now, 1410 00:33:24.949 --> 00:33:26.069 Democrats are really pissed off about this. 1411 00:33:26.150 --> 00:33:28.020 And it's funny because I remember seeing Wedgwood in the, 1412 00:33:28.069 --> 00:33:29.219 in these polling results and being like, 1413 00:33:29.349 --> 00:33:29.609 gosh. 1414 00:33:30.349 --> 00:33:32.329 I remember getting pissed at them because 1415 00:33:32.589 --> 00:33:32.760 I was like, 1416 00:33:32.829 --> 00:33:32.949 God, 1417 00:33:33.020 --> 00:33:35.630 that polls is against my prediction market position, 1418 00:33:35.709 --> 00:33:35.800 right? 1419 00:33:35.839 --> 00:33:36.260 Like I was like, 1420 00:33:36.300 --> 00:33:36.709 oh crap, 1421 00:33:36.750 --> 00:33:37.550 this is screwing my, 1422 00:33:37.670 --> 00:33:37.890 my, 1423 00:33:37.900 --> 00:33:38.060 uh, 1424 00:33:38.069 --> 00:33:39.290 portfolio up a little bit. 1425 00:33:39.589 --> 00:33:39.959 Um. 1426 00:33:40.819 --> 00:33:44.170 But I don't remember them being favoring Republicans over and over and over again. 1427 00:33:44.469 --> 00:33:44.910 I guess, 1428 00:33:45.020 --> 00:33:45.140 uh, 1429 00:33:45.189 --> 00:33:46.869 that's at least the accusation right now. 1430 00:33:47.189 --> 00:33:50.050 Democrats furious after a pollster boosting far-left candidates, 1431 00:33:50.229 --> 00:33:50.810 admits 1432 00:33:50.969 --> 00:33:52.569 fabricating surveys. 1433 00:33:53.109 --> 00:33:54.989 One of the candidates who was really pissed 1434 00:33:54.989 --> 00:33:56.989 off with this is someone named Mallory McMorrow. 1435 00:33:57.069 --> 00:33:58.550 You might not remember that name because she, 1436 00:33:58.750 --> 00:33:59.619 she dropped out. 1437 00:34:00.030 --> 00:34:00.689 She was the. 1438 00:34:00.939 --> 00:34:02.739 If you remember El Sayed on one side, 1439 00:34:02.780 --> 00:34:03.439 on the left, 1440 00:34:03.859 --> 00:34:04.619 on my left, 1441 00:34:04.819 --> 00:34:05.020 um, 1442 00:34:05.140 --> 00:34:05.420 and, 1443 00:34:05.459 --> 00:34:05.650 uh, 1444 00:34:05.780 --> 00:34:06.819 Haley Stevens as the, 1445 00:34:06.900 --> 00:34:07.010 uh, 1446 00:34:07.099 --> 00:34:07.219 you know, 1447 00:34:07.380 --> 00:34:08.500 centrist candidate, 1448 00:34:08.570 --> 00:34:09.978 I'm certainly not going to say on the right 1449 00:34:10.219 --> 00:34:11.208 when we're talking about this crew. 1450 00:34:11.580 --> 00:34:13.139 Mallory McMorrow was the one in the middle. 1451 00:34:13.489 --> 00:34:14.918 And she was kind of the one that at, 1452 00:34:14.989 --> 00:34:17.080 at the beginning was thought to be favored because, 1453 00:34:17.330 --> 00:34:17.639 you know, 1454 00:34:17.850 --> 00:34:21.168 I'll say it's it's too extreme on one side and Stevens is too extreme on the other. 1455 00:34:21.250 --> 00:34:22.159 Maybe we'll pick the middle one. 1456 00:34:22.239 --> 00:34:22.290 Now, 1457 00:34:22.330 --> 00:34:23.688 I don't know when that actually ever works. 1458 00:34:23.800 --> 00:34:24.030 Frankly, 1459 00:34:24.070 --> 00:34:25.228 it doesn't seem to work all that often, 1460 00:34:25.300 --> 00:34:25.590 but 1461 00:34:25.850 --> 00:34:26.168 whatever. 1462 00:34:26.250 --> 00:34:27.429 She tried it and failed. 1463 00:34:27.688 --> 00:34:27.850 Um, 1464 00:34:27.969 --> 00:34:29.000 she tweeted this out, 1465 00:34:29.090 --> 00:34:29.250 uh, 1466 00:34:29.370 --> 00:34:30.929 after this news came out from the, 1467 00:34:31.090 --> 00:34:31.929 about the Wedgwood poll, 1468 00:34:32.010 --> 00:34:33.800 which did poll her race. 1469 00:34:34.050 --> 00:34:36.050 She says that one of the candidates featured in these polls, 1470 00:34:36.100 --> 00:34:39.449 the infamous one in late June that showed me plummeting into single digits, 1471 00:34:39.728 --> 00:34:41.889 which was at odds with our internal polling. 1472 00:34:42.309 --> 00:34:43.589 Here's the impact of your, 1473 00:34:43.688 --> 00:34:44.708 your experiment. 1474 00:34:44.989 --> 00:34:46.138 Donations dried up. 1475 00:34:46.309 --> 00:34:47.618 Volunteers were devastated, 1476 00:34:47.748 --> 00:34:49.408 pleading for guidance on what to do. 1477 00:34:49.789 --> 00:34:52.018 Reporters hounded me with calls to drop out. 1478 00:34:52.467 --> 00:34:52.589 Sure, 1479 00:34:52.668 --> 00:34:53.549 a

point was proven, 1480 00:34:53.628 --> 00:34:54.697 polling is broken, 1481 00:34:54.868 --> 00:34:56.868 but tens of thousands of people poured their hearts, 1482 00:34:56.978 --> 00:34:57.628 time and energy, 1483 00:34:57.668 --> 00:34:58.509 and hard-earned money into. 1484 00:34:58.669 --> 00:35:00.489 Something they believed in for a year and a half 1485 00:35:00.669 --> 00:35:01.729 and it was treated like a game. 1486 00:35:02.070 --> 00:35:02.989 Our volunteers, 1487 00:35:03.149 --> 00:35:03.300 uh, 1488 00:35:03.310 --> 00:35:03.979 gave it their all, 1489 00:35:03.989 --> 00:35:04.590 and then some, 1490 00:35:04.669 --> 00:35:06.629 I feel like we let so many of them down. 1491 00:35:06.870 --> 00:35:07.340 She goes on to, 1492 00:35:07.419 --> 00:35:07.550 you know, 1493 00:35:07.669 --> 00:35:09.610 shill for El Sayed and then say, 1494 00:35:09.790 --> 00:35:10.750 if this teaches us anything, 1495 00:35:10.870 --> 00:35:12.620 don't get complacent and don't trust the polls. 1496 00:35:12.659 --> 00:35:13.179 And I think that's, 1497 00:35:13.270 --> 00:35:13.649 look, 1498 00:35:14.020 --> 00:35:14.850 always the right advice. 1499 00:35:15.830 --> 00:35:16.149 I was, 1500 00:35:16.229 --> 00:35:17.060 I was confused by this. 1501 00:35:17.110 --> 00:35:17.540 People were like, 1502 00:35:17.590 --> 00:35:17.870 oh gosh, 1503 00:35:17.909 --> 00:35:18.909 I want my candidate to win. 1504 00:35:18.949 --> 00:35:19.739 I wanna vote for the winner. 1505 00:35:19.800 --> 00:35:21.310 Who cares if you vote for the winner or not? 1506 00:35:21.790 --> 00:35:22.770 Vote for who you think is good, 1507 00:35:22.939 --> 00:35:23.709 who you think is right. 1508 00:35:25.379 --> 00:35:26.939 if the polls show your person's behind, 1509 00:35:27.060 --> 00:35:28.570 even more reason for you to go vote, 1510 00:35:28.739 --> 00:35:28.860 right? 1511 00:35:29.020 --> 00:35:29.879 Because you want them to win. 1512 00:35:30.379 --> 00:35:30.489 Uh, 1513 00:35:30.659 --> 00:35:32.959 you shouldn't be downtrodden by the polls. 1514 00:35:33.330 --> 00:35:33.419 The, 1515 00:35:33.479 --> 00:35:37.260 the answer is always to go out there and do a little bit more if it's possible for you. 1516 00:35:37.629 --> 00:35:38.020 Um, 1517 00:35:38.070 --> 00:35:38.830 if you care about the, 1518 00:35:38.949 --> 00:35:39.149 these, 1519 00:35:39.270 --> 00:35:39.709 these races, 1520 00:35:39.830 --> 00:35:40.810 do something about it. 1521 00:35:41.020 --> 00:35:41.270 Um, 1522 00:35:41.389 --> 00:35:42.610 all that being said, 1523 00:35:42.870 --> 00:35:43.070 uh, 1524 00:35:43.189 --> 00:35:43.969 the fact is, 1525 00:35:44.310 --> 00:35:45.459 we are in a weird environment, 1526 00:35:45.469 --> 00:35:45.750 and I, 1527 00:35:45.870 --> 00:35:48.010 I've said this on Twitter and I'll say it again here. 1528 00:35:48.310 --> 00:35:49.489 Maybe the answer here 1529 00:35:49.590 --> 00:35:51.100 is you don't include them in your polling 1530 00:35:51.100 --> 00:35:53.830 averages until you understand they are legitimate. 1531 00:35:53.989 --> 00:35:56.969 Don't just include them and then try to disprove their legitimacy. 1532 00:35:57.350 --> 00:35:58.100 Do the opposite. 1533 00:35:58.330 --> 00:35:59.429 Find out they're legitimate first. 1534 00:35:59.510 --> 00:36:00.649 If they're new to the game 1535 00:36:00.949 --> 00:36:02.290 and not an established player. 1536 00:36:02.879 --> 00:36:03.780 Have a vetting period. 1537 00:36:04.280 --> 00:36:05.760 Wait until you see what the heck they're 1538 00:36:05.760 --> 00:36:07.750 doing before you include them in these averages, 1539 00:36:07.909 --> 00:36:09.560 that seems to be the most simple step. 1540 00:36:24.179 --> 00:36:24.379 Uh, 1541 00:36:24.469 --> 00:36:24.580 yes, 1542 00:36:24.659 --> 00:36:27.389 there's always people at the storming the gates of the castle, 1543 00:36:27.540 --> 00:36:29.100 trying to take down prediction markets. 1544 00:36:29.219 --> 00:36:29.580 That is, 1545 00:36:29.610 --> 00:36:29.899 uh, 1546 00:36:29.909 --> 00:36:33.169 kind of the central function of many government officials these days, 1547 00:36:33.500 --> 00:36:34.699 because they got nothing better to do. 1548 00:36:34.820 --> 00:36:36.659 Certainly no problems going on in the country right now. 1549 00:36:36.739 --> 00:36:38.639 Let's make sure we go after prediction markets. 1550 00:36:39.010 --> 00:36:39.260 Um, 1551 00:36:39.340 --> 00:36:40.679 a new lawsuit came out, 1552 00:36:40.780 --> 00:36:41.139 uh, 1553 00:36:41.219 --> 00:36:41.729 in Utah. 1554 00:36:41.790 --> 00:36:42.870 Utah sues Calsci, 1555 00:36:43.620 --> 00:36:46.639 seeking up to $60 million in profit made off of 1556 00:36:46.870 --> 00:36:47.919 Utahns. 1557 00:36:48.909 --> 00:36:49.719 It's a fun word to say, 1558 00:36:49.840 --> 00:36:50.979 Utahns. 1559 00:36:51.479 --> 00:36:51.820 Look. 1560 00:36:54.699 --> 00:36:56.199 Spencer Cox is the governor there. 1561 00:36:56.500 --> 00:36:57.090 Um, 1562 00:36:57.179 --> 00:36:58.399 I had him on the show before. 1563 00:36:58.699 --> 00:36:59.260 Uh, 1564 00:36:59.379 --> 00:37:02.040 the Attorney general's name is Derek Brown. 1565 00:37:02.219 --> 00:37:02.899 I don't know him. 1566 00:37:02.939 --> 00:37:03.419 I don't, 1567 00:37:03.500 --> 00:37:04.580 I mean probably has been on, 1568 00:37:04.679 --> 00:37:06.600 was on the radio show with us as well back in the day. 1569 00:37:06.820 --> 00:37:07.139 I have nothing, 1570 00:37:07.219 --> 00:37:08.540 I don't combat this is like the, 1571 00:37:08.659 --> 00:37:11.620 the person who's like a typically attacking a Republican politician. 1572 00:37:11.699 --> 00:37:12.060 Like I, 1573 00:37:12.169 --> 00:37:12.500 you know, 1574 00:37:12.580 --> 00:37:14.459 I agree with him on most topics. 1575 00:37:15.169 --> 00:37:16.169 This is a pretty weak one, 1576 00:37:16.260 --> 00:37:17.699 a pretty weak set of arguments, 1577 00:37:17.780 -->

00:37:18.379 and frankly, 1578 00:37:18.459 --> 00:37:21.280 it doesn't feel like they put all that much effort into these arguments, 1579 00:37:21.620 --> 00:37:21.929 um, 1580 00:37:22.100 --> 00:37:22.389 you know, 1581 00:37:22.500 --> 00:37:24.360 except to try to make up little catchy lines. 1582 00:37:24.419 --> 00:37:24.580 I mean, 1583 00:37:24.629 --> 00:37:24.879 let me, 1584 00:37:24.939 --> 00:37:25.360 uh, 1585 00:37:25.939 --> 00:37:26.860 I'll give you an example. 1586 00:37:27.179 --> 00:37:28.139 These companies, 1587 00:37:28.540 --> 00:37:29.879 they're not your friends, 1588 00:37:30.100 --> 00:37:30.580 but the, 1589 00:37:30.659 --> 00:37:31.100 just so you know, 1590 00:37:31.179 --> 00:37:32.500 the government is. 1591 00:37:32.580 --> 00:37:32.659 The, 1592 00:37:32.760 --> 00:37:34.540 the government is your friend. 1593 00:37:34.620 --> 00:37:36.899 That's what us conservatives believe today. 1594 00:37:37.219 --> 00:37:37.379 Uh, 1595 00:37:37.500 --> 00:37:37.939 these companies, 1596 00:37:38.020 --> 00:37:39.010 they're not your friends, 1597 00:37:39.219 --> 00:37:40.479 they're not helping you invest, 1598 00:37:40.820 --> 00:37:43.379 they're not providing you with insights or opportunity. 1599 00:37:43.669 --> 00:37:44.260 Frankly, 1600 00:37:44.379 --> 00:37:47.919 they are engineered to do one thing and one thing alone. 1601 00:37:48.699 --> 00:37:50.520 Empty your wallet, 1602 00:37:50.820 --> 00:37:51.939 said Elizabeth Warren. 1603 00:37:52.020 --> 00:37:52.260 I'm sorry, 1604 00:37:52.340 --> 00:37:52.419 no, 1605 00:37:52.530 --> 00:37:52.689 uh, 1606 00:37:52.780 --> 00:37:52.909 uh, 1607 00:37:52.979 --> 00:37:53.340 the, 1608 00:37:53.350 --> 00:37:53.360 uh, 1609 00:37:53.370 --> 00:37:54.429 AG from Utah. 1610 00:37:54.659 --> 00:37:55.020 Um, 1611 00:37:55.300 --> 00:37:55.659 look. 1612 00:37:57.889 --> 00:37:58.169 Cal, 1613 00:37:58.389 --> 00:37:58.699 this, 1614 00:37:58.830 --> 00:38:00.090 let me explain something to you. 1615 00:38:00.550 --> 00:38:00.979 Calhi, 1616 00:38:01.149 --> 00:38:02.020 this is how they make money, 1617 00:38:02.110 --> 00:38:02.310 OK? 1618 00:38:02.389 --> 00:38:02.510 Here, 1619 00:38:02.590 --> 00:38:02.879 here you go. 1620 00:38:02.949 --> 00:38:03.729 You ready for it? 1621 00:38:04.350 --> 00:38:07.330 You put in a trade and they take a fee off of that trade. 1622 00:38:07.590 --> 00:38:10.870 If they were specifically designed to empty your wallet, 1623 00:38:10.949 --> 00:38:11.840 what they might do, 1624 00:38:11.949 --> 00:38:13.330 let's just give a situation is 1625 00:38:13.510 --> 00:38:15.830 to try to get people to put a wager on, 1626 00:38:15.909 --> 00:38:16.909 on some position, 1627 00:38:17.110 --> 00:38:18.370 and then when they lose, 1628 00:38:18.629 --> 00:38:18.830 uh, 1629 00:38:18.949 --> 00:38:19.129 that, 1630 00:38:19.189 --> 00:38:19.489 uh, 1631 00:38:19.610 --> 00:38:19.620 the, 1632 00:38:19.750 --> 00:38:20.429 that wager, 1633 00:38:20.510 --> 00:38:21.370 they take all the money. 1634 00:38:21.669 --> 00:38:22.070 That's a. 1635 00:38:22.229 --> 00:38:23.709 To try to get people to empty their pockets. 1636 00:38:23.790 --> 00:38:23.959 Now, 1637 00:38:24.070 --> 00:38:26.719 I don't have any negative feelings about those types of things. 1638 00:38:26.909 --> 00:38:27.189 I, 1639 00:38:27.270 --> 00:38:28.060 as a conservative, 1640 00:38:28.110 --> 00:38:28.570 as a, 1641 00:38:28.709 --> 00:38:31.090 a person who believes in personal 1642 00:38:31.590 --> 00:38:32.790 responsibility, 1643 00:38:32.989 --> 00:38:33.570 I 1644 00:38:33.830 --> 00:38:34.330 believe 1645 00:38:34.510 --> 00:38:34.909 that 1646 00:38:35.070 --> 00:38:37.209 it is up to you to decide where to spend your money. 1647 00:38:37.429 --> 00:38:37.550 You know, 1648 00:38:37.629 --> 00:38:38.669 I went to a movie the other night. 1649 00:38:38.709 --> 00:38:39.229 You know what they did? 1650 00:38:39.310 --> 00:38:40.449 They took my money. 1651 00:38:40.949 --> 00:38:43.770 They were specifically designed to empty my wallet. 1652 00:38:44.610 --> 00:38:47.780 But I made that decision because it entertained me for a while. 1653 00:38:47.860 --> 00:38:50.520 So if you wanna make wagers on sports or whatever else, 1654 00:38:50.699 --> 00:38:51.459 that is up to you. 1655 00:38:51.659 --> 00:38:52.929 You're a big boy, 1656 00:38:53.179 --> 00:38:54.360 you're a big girl, 1657 00:38:54.580 --> 00:38:55.719 you're an adult. 1658 00:38:56.820 --> 00:38:57.179 I, 1659 00:38:57.260 --> 00:39:00.000 as someone who believes in personal responsibility, 1660 00:39:00.500 --> 00:39:03.219 think that that's kind of like really obvious, 1661 00:39:03.500 --> 00:39:06.179 but I guess the government's supposed to protect us from all these things. 1662 00:39:06.260 --> 00:39:06.379 Now, 1663 00:39:06.419 --> 00:39:06.959 OK, 1664 00:39:07.260 --> 00:39:08.060 you wanna say that. 1665 00:39:08.300 --> 00:39:11.820 If you are a company specifically designed to empty somebody's wallet, 1666 00:39:12.100 --> 00:39:14.340 the way you would not do that is to facilitate 1667 00:39:14.340 --> 00:39:16.620 trades and take a small percentage in a fee. 1668 00:39:17.219 --> 00:39:18.760 That's obviously moronic. 1669 00:39:19.129 --> 00:39:20.120 Then we would all be saying, 1670 00:39:20.169 --> 00:39:20.360 well, 1671 00:39:20.500 --> 00:39:21.370 PayPal, 1672 00:39:21.610 --> 00:39:24.169 PayPal is specifically designed to empty your wallet. 1673 00:39:24.290 --> 00:39:24.330 Well, 1674 00:39:24.409 --> 00:39:26.449 they're taking a small fee on transactions, 1675 00:39:26.570 --> 00:39:27.070 yeah. 1676 00:39:27.810 --> 00:39:29.429 It's just an idiotic argument. 1677 00:39:29.810 --> 00:39:29.959 And, 1678 00:39:30.010 --> 00:39:30.040 and, 1679 00:39:30.129 --> 00:39:30.290 you know, 1680 00:39:30.449 --> 00:39:30.889 frankly, 1681 00:39:31.100 --> 00:39:31.199 the, 1682 00:39:31.290 --> 00:39:31.370 I, 1683

00:39:31.449 --> 00:39:31.610 I, 1684 00:39:31.729 --> 00:39:33.370 I have to imagine these guys know better, 1685 00:39:33.449 --> 00:39:33.989 but whatever. 1686 00:39:34.290 --> 00:39:34.449 You know, 1687 00:39:34.570 --> 00:39:34.810 this is, 1688 00:39:34.929 --> 00:39:36.010 it's the culture in Utah, 1689 00:39:36.090 --> 00:39:38.110 they believe the laws in Utah are on their side, 1690 00:39:38.449 --> 00:39:40.530 so they're making these arguments with their cute little, 1691 00:39:40.729 --> 00:39:41.239 uh, 1692 00:39:41.520 --> 00:39:42.030 uh, 1693 00:39:42.610 --> 00:39:46.070 Calshi bet today that Utah would not enforce its gambling laws. 1694 00:39:46.169 --> 00:39:46.429 Well, 1695 00:39:46.679 --> 00:39:48.219 Calci's lost their bet. 1696 00:39:48.320 --> 00:39:48.649 OK, 1697 00:39:48.729 --> 00:39:49.629 I got the tough guy, 1698 00:39:49.729 --> 00:39:50.010 uh, 1699 00:39:50.129 --> 00:39:50.280 you know, 1700 00:39:50.409 --> 00:39:51.260 bumper sticker thing. 1701 00:39:51.290 --> 00:39:51.479 That's, 1702 00:39:51.520 --> 00:39:52.229 that's really funny. 1703 00:39:53.239 --> 00:39:54.290 But it is a bit idiotic, 1704 00:39:54.360 --> 00:39:55.030 frankly. 1705 00:39:55.409 --> 00:39:55.530 Uh, 1706 00:39:55.610 --> 00:39:56.030 they are 1707 00:39:56.169 --> 00:39:57.530 in the lawsuit trying to get $330 to 1708 00:39:57.530 --> 00:40:00.689 $60 million acting like there's some thing that happened 1709 00:40:00.850 --> 00:40:03.929 where people were victimized by trading with other people, 1710 00:40:04.209 --> 00:40:04.840 largely, 1711 00:40:05.090 --> 00:40:05.250 uh, 1712 00:40:05.370 --> 00:40:05.530 and, 1713 00:40:05.649 --> 00:40:07.689 and a fee being taken off of that transaction. 1714 00:40:07.770 --> 00:40:07.919 Now, 1715 00:40:08.010 --> 00:40:08.429 look, 1716 00:40:08.729 --> 00:40:13.040 that number matches up with what we believe the fees were charged to people in Utah. 1717 00:40:13.129 --> 00:40:13.429 So, 1718 00:40:13.669 --> 00:40:14.429 we know 1719 00:40:14.530 --> 00:40:15.409 what they're saying here. 1720 00:40:15.489 --> 00:40:15.969 They're saying, 1721 00:40:16.090 --> 00:40:16.629 well, 1722 00:40:16.850 --> 00:40:17.810 what we have evidence of, 1723 00:40:17.889 --> 00:40:21.669 we believe are fees paid by people in Utah in these transactions. 1724 00:40:22.729 --> 00:40:25.090 They know the money wasn't lost to, 1725 00:40:25.169 --> 00:40:25.439 uh, 1726 00:40:25.570 --> 00:40:26.090 to Calci. 1727 00:40:26.179 --> 00:40:27.570 The money was lost to, 1728 00:40:27.850 --> 00:40:28.080 uh, 1729 00:40:28.090 --> 00:40:28.550 other people. 1730 00:40:28.689 --> 00:40:31.929 We know that because that number is right around what we'd expected for fees. 1731 00:40:32.239 --> 00:40:32.830 They have a, 1732 00:40:32.850 --> 00:40:33.149 uh, 1733 00:40:33.159 --> 00:40:34.679 convoluted idea here, 1734 00:40:34.689 --> 00:40:35.770 and this is in the lawsuit, 1735 00:40:35.850 --> 00:40:36.750 this diagram 1736 00:40:37.169 --> 00:40:37.370 of, 1737 00:40:37.459 --> 00:40:38.479 of companies, 1738 00:40:38.810 --> 00:40:39.189 which is, 1739 00:40:39.330 --> 00:40:40.959 this is a known thing where CalSci, 1740 00:40:41.040 --> 00:40:41.239 uh, 1741 00:40:41.250 --> 00:40:42.840 other markets do this as well, 1742 00:40:43.090 --> 00:40:43.439 where they have, 1743 00:40:43.489 --> 00:40:46.010 will have market makers putting shares available at both, 1744 00:40:46.070 --> 00:40:47.209 on both sides of trades, 1745 00:40:47.330 --> 00:40:48.929 so there's liquidity in markets, 1746 00:40:49.370 --> 00:40:49.629 right? 1747 00:40:50.500 --> 00:40:51.100 This is something, 1748 00:40:51.139 --> 00:40:53.060 especially in smaller markets where you kind of need this, 1749 00:40:53.139 --> 00:40:53.580 where there's no, 1750 00:40:53.729 --> 00:40:55.060 there's maybe nobody trading them. 1751 00:40:55.100 --> 00:40:56.449 They need to get trades going, 1752 00:40:56.540 --> 00:40:57.080 so they put, 1753 00:40:57.139 --> 00:40:57.409 uh, 1754 00:40:57.419 --> 00:40:58.979 shares available in markets. 1755 00:40:59.020 --> 00:40:59.540 These companies, 1756 00:40:59.620 --> 00:41:00.340 these clearing houses, 1757 00:41:00.419 --> 00:41:01.179 the platform operator, 1758 00:41:01.260 --> 00:41:01.780 market maker, 1759 00:41:01.860 --> 00:41:02.379 holding companies, 1760 00:41:02.459 --> 00:41:03.120 all this stuff 1761 00:41:03.250 --> 00:41:04.060 is something that's known. 1762 00:41:04.100 --> 00:41:04.919 And by the way, 1763 00:41:05.149 --> 00:41:07.659 all evidence that we have up until now at least, 1764 00:41:07.860 --> 00:41:08.320 is that 1765 00:41:09.070 --> 00:41:10.459 Calci loses money doing this. 1766 00:41:11.060 --> 00:41:12.580 Calci doesn't empty your wallet. 1767 00:41:12.679 --> 00:41:14.360 They lose money doing this. 1768 00:41:14.520 --> 00:41:14.679 They, 1769 00:41:14.840 --> 00:41:17.919 there's rumors of them losing millions of dollars doing this. 1770 00:41:18.199 --> 00:41:18.719 And for them, 1771 00:41:18.760 --> 00:41:19.639 it kind of might make sense, 1772 00:41:19.729 --> 00:41:19.840 right? 1773 00:41:19.909 --> 00:41:21.439 They want people to get involved in these markets, 1774 00:41:21.560 --> 00:41:23.659 so they don't mind losing some money on these trades, 1775 00:41:23.879 --> 00:41:25.399 but they lose money doing this, 1776 00:41:25.439 --> 00:41:27.199 at least of all the evidence we have now, 1777 00:41:27.280 --> 00:41:28.600 maybe something will turn up later on. 1778 00:41:28.679 --> 00:41:29.899 We will see on that. 1779 00:41:30.280 --> 00:41:30.649 Um. 1780 00:41:31.479 --> 00:41:32.709 That's what they're trying to do, 1781 00:41:32.760 --> 00:41:34.979 but we know there's a disingenuous tie here, 1782 00:41:35.159 --> 00:41:37.100 because the money that they're looking for 1783 00:41:37.409 --> 00:41:40.100 is the amount of money that is supposedly 1784 00:41:40.310

--> 00:41:42.919 um tied to the amounts of fees being charged. 1785 00:41:43.040 --> 00:41:43.459 Look, 1786 00:41:43.830 --> 00:41:44.199 I don't know. 1787 00:41:44.310 --> 00:41:44.439 Look, 1788 00:41:44.520 --> 00:41:45.560 you answer me this question. 1789 00:41:45.639 --> 00:41:46.709 Maybe I'm wrong on this. 1790 00:41:46.879 --> 00:41:49.070 Has the government charged any fees for anything? 1791 00:41:49.360 --> 00:41:51.399 You ever been charged a fee by the government? 1792 00:41:51.949 --> 00:41:53.719 Are they your friends? 1793 00:41:54.610 --> 00:41:57.159 Are they specifically designed to empty your wallet? 1794 00:41:57.209 --> 00:41:57.889 I'll give you a hint, 1795 00:41:58.010 --> 00:41:58.169 yeah, 1796 00:41:58.330 --> 00:41:58.729 kinda, 1797 00:41:58.929 --> 00:41:59.639 but still, 1798 00:41:59.850 --> 00:42:02.560 they don't seem to hold any blame for themselves on these things. 1799 00:42:02.850 --> 00:42:05.169 They're charging you fees for transactions all the time. 1800 00:42:05.330 --> 00:42:05.530 In fact, 1801 00:42:05.600 --> 00:42:06.270 they're fees, 1802 00:42:06.649 --> 00:42:08.149 transactions I don't even wanna have 1803 00:42:08.530 --> 00:42:09.360 anything to do with. 1804 00:42:09.889 --> 00:42:12.570 They make me go into the freaking DMV and they charge fees, 1805 00:42:12.610 --> 00:42:15.489 and then I gotta go pay this fee and this tax and all these other 1806 00:42:15.489 --> 00:42:18.050 things all the time to the government and I get nothing out of it. 1807 00:42:19.189 --> 00:42:19.570 If they're, 1808 00:42:19.830 --> 00:42:20.030 by the way, 1809 00:42:20.100 --> 00:42:21.449 if they're specifically designed 1810 00:42:21.669 --> 00:42:22.469 to empty your wallets, 1811 00:42:22.590 --> 00:42:24.010 they're doing a terrible job. 1812 00:42:24.429 --> 00:42:25.270 I've been profitable, 1813 00:42:25.520 --> 00:42:25.669 you know, 1814 00:42:25.780 --> 00:42:26.110 you don't, 1815 00:42:26.590 --> 00:42:26.669 look, 1816 00:42:26.750 --> 00:42:28.729 I've been profitable on prediction markets every year since, 1817 00:42:28.770 --> 00:42:29.030 what is it, 1818 00:42:29.070 --> 00:42:30.250 2014. 1819 00:42:31.270 --> 00:42:32.580 If you are on the other side of that, 1820 00:42:32.629 --> 00:42:32.750 you know, 1821 00:42:32.949 --> 00:42:33.310 people win, 1822 00:42:33.379 --> 00:42:33.800 people lose, 1823 00:42:33.870 --> 00:42:34.270 of course, 1824 00:42:34.350 --> 00:42:34.780 you make money, 1825 00:42:34.830 --> 00:42:35.229 you profit, 1826 00:42:35.270 --> 00:42:36.669 you lose just like in any market. 1827 00:42:37.110 --> 00:42:38.370 But the bottom line is, 1828 00:42:38.649 --> 00:42:38.939 uh, 1829 00:42:39.030 --> 00:42:39.870 if you want to clear out wallets, 1830 00:42:39.909 --> 00:42:43.209 you're doing a bad job with the people over here at PredictableShow.com, 1831 00:42:43.629 --> 00:42:43.750 uh, 1832 00:42:43.949 --> 00:42:45.070 because it's not working out all that

well, 1833 00:42:45.189 --> 00:42:45.469 Kelshi. 1834 00:42:45.790 --> 00:42:48.770 Maybe have to modify your stealing standards. 1835 00:42:49.070 --> 00:42:49.770 Back in a second. 1836 00:42:58.439 --> 00:43:00.750 Whether you like prediction markets or not or interested in them or not, 1837 00:43:01.280 --> 00:43:01.429 you, 1838 00:43:01.479 --> 00:43:02.469 you probably like elections. 1839 00:43:02.479 --> 00:43:03.840 You probably are interested in the outcomes. 1840 00:43:03.919 --> 00:43:06.280 If you think you can call the elections better than other people, 1841 00:43:06.639 --> 00:43:07.919 go to Senatefantasy.com. 1842 00:43:07.959 --> 00:43:09.600 We've got a Senate fantasy league going on right now. 1843 00:43:09.639 --> 00:43:10.459 It's free to join. 1844 00:43:10.719 --> 00:43:12.600 First prize is like 2500 bucks. 1845 00:43:12.919 --> 00:43:14.139 Fund your prediction market account 1846 00:43:14.290 --> 00:43:16.439 or just keep the money to yourself and do whatever you want. 1847 00:43:16.520 --> 00:43:17.179 I don't care. 1848 00:43:17.399 --> 00:43:17.600 Uh, 1849 00:43:17.679 --> 00:43:17.840 but, 1850 00:43:17.919 --> 00:43:18.070 uh, 1851 00:43:18.110 --> 00:43:18.199 hey, 1852 00:43:18.270 --> 00:43:18.979 it's free money. 1853 00:43:19.159 --> 00:43:19.439 Um, 1854 00:43:19.560 --> 00:43:20.419 so predictable, 1855 00:43:20.439 --> 00:43:20.739 uh, 1856 00:43:20.750 --> 00:43:22.699 show.com and Senate Fantasy.com. 1857 00:43:23.199 --> 00:43:23.330 Uh, 1858 00:43:23.449 --> 00:43:24.629 let's show the leaderboard here real quick. 1859 00:43:24.729 --> 00:43:24.810 Uh, 1860 00:43:24.889 --> 00:43:25.399 what do we have, 1861 00:43:25.409 --> 00:43:25.790 uh, 1862 00:43:26.770 --> 00:43:28.149 on the leaderboard if we could. 1863 00:43:28.610 --> 00:43:28.679 Uh, 1864 00:43:28.719 --> 00:43:29.050 there it is. 1865 00:43:29.159 --> 00:43:29.489 Uh, 1866 00:43:29.610 --> 00:43:29.919 number 1, 1867 00:43:30.050 --> 00:43:32.360 bring back the Redskins is the team name. 1868 00:43:32.570 --> 00:43:33.250 I think if they win, 1869 00:43:33.330 --> 00:43:35.290 we have to actually bring back the Washington Redskins. 1870 00:43:35.360 --> 00:43:36.149 No more commanders. 1871 00:43:36.399 --> 00:43:36.649 Uh, 1872 00:43:36.729 --> 00:43:37.639 what else do we have here? 1873 00:43:37.729 --> 00:43:38.290 Uh, 1874 00:43:38.399 --> 00:43:39.649 it's totally Stu's coping team, 1875 00:43:39.729 --> 00:43:40.770 definitely not Stu Bergeer. 1876 00:43:41.370 --> 00:43:42.110 Uh, 1877 00:43:42.360 --> 00:43:44.270 Dave Landau for president at number 12, 1878 00:43:44.350 --> 00:43:44.479 uh, 1879 00:43:44.580 --> 00:43:44.929 Adam, 1880 00:43:45.010 --> 00:43:45.590 our producer, 1881 00:43:45.649 --> 00:43:46.209 number 13, 1882 00:43:46.290 --> 00:43:47.070 very frustrating. 1883 00:43:47.489 --> 00:43:47.560 No, 1884 00:43:47.649 --> 00:43:47.729 oh, 1885 00:43:47.770 --> 00:43:47.939 actually, 1886 00:43:48.129 --> 00:43:49.209 New Zealand is fake, 1887 00:43:49.330 --> 00:43:50.489 which is an interesting statement. 1888 00:43:51.189 --> 00:43:51.560 Uh, 1889 00:43:51.870 --> 00:43:52.790 I don't know if that's true or not. 1890 00:43:53.030 --> 00:43:53.149 Uh, 1891 00:43:53.199 --> 00:43:53.590 that's there. 1892 00:43:53.649 --> 00:43:53.830 And then, 1893 00:43:53.870 --> 00:43:54.020 uh, 1894 00:43:54.110 --> 00:43:54.229 uh, 1895 00:43:54.330 --> 00:43:55.350 16 is PMT. 1896 00:43:55.429 --> 00:43:56.629 We gotta notify that. 1897 00:43:56.810 --> 00:43:57.260 Jeb is a mess. 1898 00:43:57.300 --> 00:43:58.570 He's at number 16 on the whole list. 1899 00:43:58.979 --> 00:43:59.979 That's available now to you, 1900 00:44:00.080 --> 00:44:00.229 uh, 1901 00:44:00.310 --> 00:44:03.530 you can win free money and join us at senatefantasy.com. 1902 00:44:03.709 --> 00:44:04.580 It's all the time we have. 1903 00:44:04.790 --> 00:44:05.350 We'll see you later.