Transcrição completa de Are Bad Actors Using Prediction Markets to MANIPULATE Reality?!

your money. 97 00:02:29.050 --> 00:02:29.250 Um, 98 00:02:29.300 --> 00:02:30.380 if you just really like the show, 99 00:02:30.460 --> 00:02:32.050 you really are interested in prediction markets, 100 00:02:32.119 --> 00:02:33.720 I also think it'll be worth your money. 101 00:02:33.979 --> 00:02:34.279 Um, 102 00:02:34.589 --> 00:02:36.800 if you're just a person who just likes 103 00:02:36.800 --> 00:02:39.639 watching overweight white person talk on television, 104 00:02:40.059 --> 00:02:41.520 it's probably still worth your money. 105 00:02:41.779 --> 00:02:41.889 So, 106 00:02:41.899 --> 00:02:42.940 any of those categories, 107 00:02:43.100 --> 00:02:43.520 it's great. 108 00:02:43.699 --> 00:02:43.809 Uh, 109 00:02:43.899 --> 00:02:45.279 predictableShow.com. 110 00:02:45.380 --> 00:02:46.419 Become a premium subscriber. 111 00:02:46.580 --> 00:02:47.179 Tons of people are, 112 00:02:47.220 --> 00:02:47.740 are signing up. 113 00:02:47.809 --> 00:02:48.729 We're really close to the election, 114 00:02:48.839 --> 00:02:49.619 so just join us. 115 00:02:49.699 --> 00:02:49.860 It's, 116 00:02:49.919 --> 00:02:50.740 it's a great place to be. 117 00:02:51.020 --> 00:02:53.580 And we do have a massive live stream happening on election night. 118 00:02:53.929 --> 00:02:54.050 Uh, 119 00:02:54.169 --> 00:02:54.279 so, 120 00:02:54.289 --> 00:02:54.570 you know, 121 00:02:54.729 --> 00:02:55.580 this is the place you wanna, 122 00:02:55.729 --> 00:02:56.750 wanna come for great 123 00:02:57.339 --> 00:02:58.289 election coverage as, 124 00:02:58.369 --> 00:03:00.339 as it ties into prediction markets. 125 00:03:00.929 --> 00:03:02.449 We will be talking about every race. 126 00:03:02.809 --> 00:03:03.520 A lot of the ones that, 127 00:03:03.610 --> 00:03:03.850 you know, 128 00:03:04.009 --> 00:03:04.919 maybe the bigger, 129 00:03:05.050 --> 00:03:05.250 you know, 130 00:03:05.410 --> 00:03:05.610 like, 131 00:03:05.690 --> 00:03:05.800 uh, 132 00:03:05.809 --> 00:03:06.550 streams or, 133 00:03:06.559 --> 00:03:07.029 uh, 134 00:03:07.050 --> 00:03:09.050 cable news channels aren't talking about because, 135 00:03:09.369 --> 00:03:09.449 you know, 136 00:03:09.529 --> 00:03:09.869 you might 137 00:03:10.039 --> 00:03:11.070 say there's not a lot of, 138 00:03:11.089 --> 00:03:11.559 uh, 139 00:03:11.570 --> 00:03:12.809 interest in some of the races, 140 00:03:12.889 --> 00:03:13.970 but if we can find interest, 141 00:03:14.050 --> 00:03:15.610 if we can find prediction market value, 142 00:03:15.690 --> 00:03:16.750 we'll be talking about them, 143 00:03:17.050 --> 00:03:18.270 and I will be live trading, 144 00:03:18.490 --> 00:03:19.029 uh, 145 00:03:19.250 --> 00:03:20.339 right on the air with you, 146 00:03:20.610 --> 00:03:20.970 so. 147 00:03:21.500 --> 00:03:22.820 You'll be able to see everything that we're doing, 148 00:03:22.899 --> 00:03:24.520 we'll be talking about it the whole time. 149 00:03:24.979 --> 00:03:25.779 Why do I bring all that up? 150 00:03:25.889 --> 00:03:25.979 Well, 151 00:03:26.089 --> 00:03:27.339 we're 7 days from the elections. 152 00:03:27.470 --> 00:03:29.610 It's beyond panic day. 153 00:03:29.809 --> 00:03:30.289 Yes, 154 00:03:30.419 --> 00:03:33.039 1 week until the midterms are here, 155 00:03:33.500 --> 00:03:34.179 and then, 156 00:03:34.300 --> 00:03:34.699 uh, 157 00:03:34.779 --> 00:03:36.679 we have to get a big live stream. 158 00:03:36.699 --> 00:03:38.320 We're gonna be covering everything that night. 159 00:03:38.830 --> 00:03:41.279 And the country's gonna change in one way or another. 160 00:03:41.600 --> 00:03:42.899 We will see how that goes. 161 00:03:43.119 --> 00:03:45.399 Early voting is already happening in 43 states. 162 00:03:45.440 --> 00:03:47.740 I think we get up to the max here in a couple of days. 163 00:03:47.820 --> 00:03:49.990 I think there's 46 total that wind up doing it, 164 00:03:50.119 --> 00:03:50.660 something like that, 165 00:03:50.839 --> 00:03:51.199 45, 166 00:03:51.279 --> 00:03:51.830 46. 167 00:03:52.199 --> 00:03:52.539 So 168 00:03:52.720 --> 00:03:54.500 there's a lot of stuff going on there and, 169 00:03:54.759 --> 00:03:55.059 you know, 170 00:03:55.160 --> 00:03:56.039 people are tense. 171 00:03:57.020 --> 00:03:57.669 People 172 00:03:58.050 --> 00:03:59.500 are on the edge a little bit. 173 00:03:59.580 --> 00:04:00.449 I've noticed this. 174 00:04:00.729 --> 00:04:01.979 I've noticed it on social media. 175 00:04:02.059 --> 00:04:03.020 I've noticed it in real life. 176 00:04:03.130 --> 00:04:03.520 People are, 177 00:04:03.660 --> 00:04:03.820 you know, 178 00:04:03.940 --> 00:04:04.490 freaked out. 179 00:04:04.660 --> 00:04:05.809 They want their side to win. 180 00:04:06.020 --> 00:04:08.139 You have the kind of dueling different things from 181 00:04:08.139 --> 00:04:10.660 each side where Republicans are generally speaking like, 182 00:04:11.020 --> 00:04:11.460 holy crap, 183 00:04:11.539 --> 00:04:12.910 is this gonna get really ugly for us? 184 00:04:12.979 --> 00:04:13.169 Like, 185 00:04:13.220 --> 00:04:14.619 are we gonna lose the Senate? 186 00:04:14.809 --> 00:04:15.649 Or is it gonna be, 187 00:04:15.979 --> 00:04:17.548 what about Supreme Court justices? 188 00:04:17.579 --> 00:04:18.178 If that happens, 189 00:04:18.220 --> 00:04:18.410 like, 190 00:04:18.420 --> 00:04:18.700 I'm, 191 00:04:18.899 --> 00:04:19.059 you know, 192 00:04:19.220 --> 00:04:20.959 we're not gonna be getting any bills passed. 193 00:04:21.500 --> 00:04:22.679 There's sort of that panic of like, 194 00:04:23.010 --> 00:04:23.420 wait a minute, 195 00:04:23.540 --> 00:04:24.570 the media says this stuff all the time, 196 00:04:24.619 --> 00:04:25.779 but is it real this time? 197 00:04:26.869 --> 00:04:28.100 And then on the other side, 198 00:04:28.350 --> 00:04:30.489 the Democrats have the 199 00:04:30.970 --> 00:04:31.989 holy crap, 200 00:04:32.380 --> 00:04:32.549 we, 201 00:04:32.630

--> 00:04:35.829 we were saying and being really cocky about how we were gonna win all this time, 202 00:04:35.950 --> 00:04:36.829 now that we're a week away, 203 00:04:36.910 --> 00:04:38.549 are we gonna somehow blow this again? 204 00:04:39.390 --> 00:04:41.190 They are panicked for a totally different reason. 205 00:04:41.429 --> 00:04:42.910 So everyone's freaked out, 206 00:04:43.190 --> 00:04:44.239 and that makes it, 207 00:04:44.250 --> 00:04:44.579 uh, 208 00:04:44.589 --> 00:04:44.970 wonderful. 209 00:04:45.070 --> 00:04:45.190 I, 210 00:04:45.269 --> 00:04:47.929 I think all of our interactions this time of year 211 00:04:48.109 --> 00:04:51.750 with other human beings are really positive because nobody's insane. 212 00:04:52.029 --> 00:04:52.899 Nobody's stressed out, 213 00:04:52.989 --> 00:04:55.890 nobody's nerves are frazzled to the degree 214 00:04:56.149 --> 00:04:57.489 that we've never seen before. 215 00:04:57.989 --> 00:04:58.290 Uh, 216 00:04:58.429 --> 00:04:58.630 actually, 217 00:04:58.690 --> 00:04:59.660 it's kind of how it is all the time, 218 00:04:59.709 --> 00:05:00.649 I feel like right now. 219 00:05:01.230 --> 00:05:02.929 And I noticed this on social media, 220 00:05:03.089 --> 00:05:04.029 and I noticed it because I, 221 00:05:04.149 --> 00:05:04.890 I post 222 00:05:05.190 --> 00:05:06.000 prediction market, 223 00:05:06.279 --> 00:05:06.899 uh, 224 00:05:06.910 --> 00:05:07.109 content. 225 00:05:07.739 --> 00:05:08.700 It's what I do for a living, 226 00:05:08.829 --> 00:05:08.850 you know, 227 00:05:08.940 --> 00:05:09.029 I, 228 00:05:09.179 --> 00:05:10.140 I talk about prediction markets, 229 00:05:10.220 --> 00:05:11.119 I talk about politics, 230 00:05:11.700 --> 00:05:12.910 and when I do that, 231 00:05:13.420 --> 00:05:14.299 people get angry. 232 00:05:14.690 --> 00:05:16.559 There's some weird anger going on against, 233 00:05:16.619 --> 00:05:16.880 uh, 234 00:05:16.899 --> 00:05:17.609 prediction markets, 235 00:05:17.619 --> 00:05:18.440 which I don't 236 00:05:18.739 --> 00:05:19.679 fully understand. 237 00:05:19.790 --> 00:05:20.100 Um, 238 00:05:20.220 --> 00:05:20.679 you know, 239 00:05:21.019 --> 00:05:22.480 there's always anger against something new, 240 00:05:22.609 --> 00:05:22.769 uh, 241 00:05:22.820 --> 00:05:24.019 and prediction markets are new. 242 00:05:24.290 --> 00:05:25.209 So I think that's part of it. 243 00:05:25.619 --> 00:05:26.980 But also like there's just this tie, 244 00:05:27.089 --> 00:05:29.739 this belief that these things are really bad for society. 245 00:05:29.820 --> 00:05:30.850 I went through all of this, 246 00:05:30.899 --> 00:05:31.290 uh, 247 00:05:31.320 --> 00:05:31.690 uh, 248 00:05:31.779 --> 00:05:31.899 you know, 249 00:05:31.970 --> 00:05:33.380 a good chunk of this argument last night. 250 00:05:33.739 --> 00:05:34.399 On the program, 251 00:05:34.739 --> 00:05:36.019 which I just don't see it that way at all. 252 00:05:36.079 --> 00:05:36.339 In fact, 253 00:05:36.540 --> 00:05:37.609 especially if you're someone who's, 254 00:05:37.660 --> 00:05:37.820 you know, 255 00:05:37.980 --> 00:05:38.480 gone through 256 00:05:38.899 --> 00:05:39.369 the battles, 257 00:05:39.420 --> 00:05:42.640 the trials and tribulations of having like only 3 channels 258 00:05:42.859 --> 00:05:44.000 and trying to get your message, 259 00:05:44.140 --> 00:05:44.369 uh, 260 00:05:44.380 --> 00:05:47.170 to be treated fairly or your ideas to be treated fairly, 261 00:05:47.540 --> 00:05:49.440 we saw that grand expansion 262 00:05:49.779 --> 00:05:50.309 of, 263 00:05:50.380 --> 00:05:50.679 uh, 264 00:05:50.690 --> 00:05:51.399 of media, 265 00:05:51.459 --> 00:05:53.920 and I think it was a good thing to push back against 266 00:05:54.140 --> 00:05:56.839 that sort of centralized control of 267 00:05:57.100 --> 00:05:58.619 what was acceptable opinion, 268 00:05:58.940 --> 00:05:59.179 right? 269 00:05:59.459 --> 00:06:00.739 That has expanded quite a bit. 270 00:06:01.059 --> 00:06:01.390 Um, 271 00:06:01.510 --> 00:06:01.769 you know, 272 00:06:01.910 --> 00:06:02.260 with that, 273 00:06:02.309 --> 00:06:02.589 of course, 274 00:06:02.709 --> 00:06:02.929 has, 275 00:06:03.269 --> 00:06:04.929 there's some bumps in that road as well, 276 00:06:04.989 --> 00:06:05.339 um, 277 00:06:05.510 --> 00:06:06.489 where you have, 278 00:06:06.559 --> 00:06:06.589 uh, 279 00:06:06.619 --> 00:06:08.510 some partisan interests taking over and everything else, 280 00:06:08.570 --> 00:06:08.670 and, 281 00:06:08.750 --> 00:06:10.630 and prediction markets do a great job of cutting through all 282 00:06:10.630 --> 00:06:12.459 that because people gotta put their money where their mouth is. 283 00:06:12.920 --> 00:06:17.269 People don't tend to take BS positions when they're putting currency next to them. 284 00:06:17.630 --> 00:06:19.429 That's just the reality of the situation, 285 00:06:19.630 --> 00:06:20.929 and it's why prediction markets 286 00:06:21.109 --> 00:06:22.089 have done so well 287 00:06:22.350 --> 00:06:22.890 predicting, 288 00:06:23.029 --> 00:06:23.220 uh, 289 00:06:23.230 --> 00:06:23.709 outcomes. 290 00:06:23.750 --> 00:06:24.089 Now, 291 00:06:26.079 --> 00:06:27.480 That doesn't mean everybody's convinced. 292 00:06:28.820 --> 00:06:29.489 If you're here, 293 00:06:29.549 --> 00:06:31.100 you're probably early on this bandwagon. 294 00:06:31.149 --> 00:06:34.029 You're probably understanding this a lot more than the people around you, 295 00:06:34.109 --> 00:06:34.790 your friends, 296 00:06:34.959 --> 00:06:35.609 your frenemies, 297 00:06:35.670 --> 00:06:36.410 your enemies. 298 00:06:36.760 --> 00:06:40.250 And so I wanted to go through a couple of these arguments that I see all the time. 299 00:06:40.429 --> 00:06:41.149 One in particular, 300 00:06:41.230 --> 00:06:42.589 which is really important about, 301 00:06:42.920 --> 00:06:43.390 uh, 302 00:06:43.410 -->

00:06:44.369 elections in particular. 303 00:06:44.700 --> 00:06:44.950 Uh, 304 00:06:45.149 --> 00:06:45.429 first of all, 305 00:06:45.510 --> 00:06:46.190 there was this claim, 306 00:06:46.269 --> 00:06:46.380 uh, 307 00:06:46.470 --> 00:06:46.750 prediction. 308 00:06:46.799 --> 00:06:46.869 I, 309 00:06:46.950 --> 00:06:48.230 I took the names out of these cause I don't, 310 00:06:48.299 --> 00:06:48.390 I, 311 00:06:48.570 --> 00:06:49.589 I don't wanna get some random, 312 00:06:49.670 --> 00:06:49.899 uh, 313 00:06:49.910 --> 00:06:51.829 person on social media flamed for this stuff. 314 00:06:51.910 --> 00:06:53.059 I'm just giving you their points. 315 00:06:53.260 --> 00:06:54.619 Prediction markets are useless. 316 00:06:54.769 --> 00:06:55.649 They don't predict anything. 317 00:06:55.910 --> 00:06:57.750 They are one step below odds at the track. 318 00:06:57.989 --> 00:06:58.290 Now. 319 00:06:59.440 --> 00:06:59.920 First of all, 320 00:07:00.070 --> 00:07:00.859 odds at the track, 321 00:07:01.040 --> 00:07:01.390 uh, 322 00:07:01.519 --> 00:07:01.750 uh, 323 00:07:01.839 --> 00:07:02.109 you know, 324 00:07:02.239 --> 00:07:02.959 there's a reason why, 325 00:07:03.040 --> 00:07:03.279 you know, 326 00:07:03.359 --> 00:07:04.100 the 327 00:07:04.709 --> 00:07:05.859 institutions that set odds 328 00:07:06.040 --> 00:07:07.019 tend to make money 329 00:07:07.359 --> 00:07:09.549 because they set them in very accurate ways, 330 00:07:09.559 --> 00:07:09.839 actually. 331 00:07:09.959 --> 00:07:10.880 They're difficult to beat. 332 00:07:10.959 --> 00:07:13.119 That's why people lose at sports gambling a lot, 333 00:07:13.359 --> 00:07:13.480 uh, 334 00:07:13.679 --> 00:07:16.700 because the odds set by the house are usually very difficult to beat, 335 00:07:16.720 --> 00:07:17.940 and they have nice spreads and 336 00:07:18.320 --> 00:07:18.720 whatever. 337 00:07:18.959 --> 00:07:20.000 So I don't know that odds are, 338 00:07:20.149 --> 00:07:20.350 uh, 339 00:07:20.359 --> 00:07:23.440 by the track are necessarily the bad thing to be compared to. 340 00:07:23.869 --> 00:07:25.040 But when you say they're useless, 341 00:07:25.119 --> 00:07:25.450 like, 342 00:07:25.480 --> 00:07:25.640 we, 343 00:07:25.679 --> 00:07:27.190 we went through a lot of this data yesterday, 344 00:07:27.279 --> 00:07:29.079 there's been a ton of studies that show, 345 00:07:29.440 --> 00:07:29.790 uh, 346 00:07:29.799 --> 00:07:30.570 exactly what 347 00:07:30.760 --> 00:07:32.339 these prediction markets do 348 00:07:32.640 --> 00:07:33.320 and do well, 349 00:07:33.440 --> 00:07:34.529 which is they are 350 00:07:34.799 --> 00:07:35.440 basically, 351 00:07:35.519 --> 00:07:35.760 I mean, 352 00:07:36.040 --> 00:07:37.820 almost near perfect calibration 353 00:07:38.239 --> 00:07:38.980 to reality. 354 00:07:39.239 --> 00:07:42.320 If a prediction market says there's a 70% chance of something happening. 355 00:07:42.829 --> 00:07:43.320 Um, 356 00:07:43.640 --> 00:07:44.079 that means, 357 00:07:44.160 --> 00:07:44.920 just so we're aware, 358 00:07:44.959 --> 00:07:48.140 cause I posted a poll on this and I got kind of shocking results. 359 00:07:48.440 --> 00:07:48.890 Um, 360 00:07:49.279 --> 00:07:50.000 so we're clear. 361 00:07:50.239 --> 00:07:50.799 If something, 362 00:07:50.920 --> 00:07:53.260 if a prediction market says a 70% favorite, 363 00:07:53.480 --> 00:07:55.119 that means that candidate 364 00:07:55.519 --> 00:07:56.140 should lose, 365 00:07:56.160 --> 00:07:57.679 if he ran that race a zillion times, 366 00:07:57.760 --> 00:07:59.500 should lose 30% of the time. 367 00:07:59.769 --> 00:08:01.619 Anything marked as a 70% favorite 368 00:08:01.760 --> 00:08:03.399 should lose about 30% of the time. 369 00:08:03.619 --> 00:08:05.910 Anything marked as a 30% underdog 370 00:08:06.160 --> 00:08:08.040 should win about 30% of the time. 371 00:08:08.200 --> 00:08:09.380 That's how these odds work. 372 00:08:09.799 --> 00:08:10.140 So, 373 00:08:10.720 --> 00:08:11.920 when you understand that. 374 00:08:12.390 --> 00:08:12.640 You, 375 00:08:12.720 --> 00:08:14.190 you could understand what calibration means, 376 00:08:14.239 --> 00:08:14.600 which is, 377 00:08:14.640 --> 00:08:17.109 if someone says there's only a 10% chance of that happening, 378 00:08:17.359 --> 00:08:19.179 that doesn't mean it never happens. 379 00:08:19.890 --> 00:08:20.839 That doesn't mean 380 00:08:20.940 --> 00:08:22.579 it's the craziest thing in the world. 381 00:08:22.779 --> 00:08:23.420 Like we all, 382 00:08:23.540 --> 00:08:23.649 you know, 383 00:08:23.660 --> 00:08:26.299 mocked the Francesca Hong primary because it was a, 384 00:08:26.480 --> 00:08:26.619 you know, 385 00:08:26.700 --> 00:08:27.440 prediction markets, 386 00:08:27.679 --> 00:08:27.940 um, 387 00:08:28.100 --> 00:08:28.380 you know, 388 00:08:28.500 --> 00:08:28.579 I, 389 00:08:28.660 --> 00:08:28.769 I, 390 00:08:28.859 --> 00:08:29.380 I was on them. 391 00:08:29.459 --> 00:08:31.100 I lost some money on Francesca Hong, 392 00:08:31.209 --> 00:08:32.640 she was at 95%. 393 00:08:32.859 --> 00:08:33.799 I started buying her 394 00:08:34.390 --> 00:08:37.260 a little bit when she dropped to 80% cause I still thought she was gonna win. 395 00:08:37.380 --> 00:08:38.320 She almost did, 396 00:08:38.820 --> 00:08:39.500 but she lost. 397 00:08:40.558 --> 00:08:41.018 And 398 00:08:41.508 --> 00:08:41.729 everyone was like, 399 00:08:41.789 --> 00:08:42.039 oh gosh, 400 00:08:42.119 --> 00:08:43.508 what a failure for prediction markets. 401 00:08:43.638 --> 00:08:44.039 No, 402 00:08:44.309 --> 00:08:47.739 a 95% favorite should lose 5% of the time. 403 00:08:48.039 --> 00:08:48.379 If 404 00:08:48.638 --> 00:08:51.218 a 95% favorite does not lose ever, 405 00:08:51.838 --> 00:08:52.999 then the markets are broken. 406 00:08:55.750 --> 00:08:59.419 This has been shown over millions of contracts. 407 00:08:59.789 -->

00:09:02.030 I know you saw one graph on Twitter. 408 00:09:02.109 --> 00:09:02.809 I get it. 409 00:09:03.109 --> 00:09:05.489 And I get how that impacted you in some way. 410 00:09:06.030 --> 00:09:08.880 But the truth of the matter is when you look at this over a long period of time, 411 00:09:08.979 --> 00:09:10.229 over millions of contracts, 412 00:09:10.270 --> 00:09:10.570 over, 413 00:09:10.580 --> 00:09:11.929 over dozens of years. 414 00:09:12.640 --> 00:09:12.770 Uh, 415 00:09:12.849 --> 00:09:13.049 you know, 416 00:09:13.390 --> 00:09:15.650 when you break it down by all the different exchanges, 417 00:09:15.729 --> 00:09:16.630 what you find. 418 00:09:17.289 --> 00:09:20.890 Is that these prediction markets do a better job at this 419 00:09:20.890 --> 00:09:23.090 type of thing than any other tool that we have. 420 00:09:23.979 --> 00:09:24.739 Now that mark, 421 00:09:24.859 --> 00:09:26.969 that argument we kind of dealt with yesterday in more detail, 422 00:09:26.979 --> 00:09:28.090 if you wanna go back and watch that, 423 00:09:28.270 --> 00:09:28.690 you could. 424 00:09:28.900 --> 00:09:29.729 We also have this one, 425 00:09:29.739 --> 00:09:30.679 and I get this one 426 00:09:31.099 --> 00:09:33.369 pretty much anytime I post anything about prediction markets. 427 00:09:33.539 --> 00:09:33.780 It's a, 428 00:09:33.859 --> 00:09:34.530 this is a version of, 429 00:09:34.580 --> 00:09:35.239 this is a quote, 430 00:09:35.729 --> 00:09:35.969 uh, 431 00:09:36.059 --> 00:09:36.250 but, 432 00:09:36.299 --> 00:09:36.500 uh, 433 00:09:36.580 --> 00:09:36.820 you know, 434 00:09:37.000 --> 00:09:37.010 you, 435 00:09:37.059 --> 00:09:37.719 you get the sense. 436 00:09:37.979 --> 00:09:39.719 The market is garbage. 437 00:09:41.650 --> 00:09:42.369 First of all, 438 00:09:42.650 --> 00:09:44.200 I want a t-shirt that says, 439 00:09:44.210 --> 00:09:45.559 the markets is garbage. 440 00:09:45.760 --> 00:09:48.270 We were just building our merch store the other day. 441 00:09:48.570 --> 00:09:49.789 This might need to be one of them, 442 00:09:49.890 --> 00:09:51.030 in just this font, 443 00:09:51.409 --> 00:09:53.750 the markets is garbage with no period. 444 00:09:54.250 --> 00:09:55.130 I want that shirt. 445 00:09:55.210 --> 00:09:56.570 I don't know if anyone else would ever buy it, 446 00:09:56.640 --> 00:09:57.690 but I would wear it around. 447 00:09:57.849 --> 00:09:58.630 The markets 448 00:09:58.840 --> 00:09:59.840 is garbage. 449 00:10:00.210 --> 00:10:04.229 He says $5000 can change the markets by up to 30%. 450 00:10:06.179 --> 00:10:08.419 It's the market manipulation argument. 451 00:10:08.619 --> 00:10:08.929 And the, 452 00:10:08.979 --> 00:10:09.210 the, 453 00:10:09.299 --> 00:10:09.500 the, 454 00:10:09.619 --> 00:10:10.619 the thought of it goes like this, 455 00:10:10.700 --> 00:10:12.179 and then there's some sense to, 456 00:10:12.299 --> 00:10:13.299 you could see this happening. 457 00:10:13.539 --> 00:10:13.869 Obviously, 458 00:10:13.900 --> 00:10:16.750 prediction markets are being talked about more and more in our society. 459 00:10:16.849 --> 00:10:18.330 They're being in their own news channels and everything else. 460 00:10:18.380 --> 00:10:19.400 People talk about them. 461 00:10:19.859 --> 00:10:21.119 And if you could spend 462 00:10:21.539 --> 00:10:22.719 $5000 463 00:10:22.890 --> 00:10:24.559 to move a market by 30 points, 464 00:10:24.780 --> 00:10:26.580 it's possible one of those news networks would say, 465 00:10:26.659 --> 00:10:26.979 wait a minute, 466 00:10:27.090 --> 00:10:27.210 uh, 467 00:10:27.260 --> 00:10:27.419 gosh, 468 00:10:27.500 --> 00:10:27.650 this, 469 00:10:27.700 --> 00:10:29.000 this candidate is spiking, 470 00:10:29.419 --> 00:10:29.799 right? 471 00:10:30.250 --> 00:10:30.530 Um, 472 00:10:30.619 --> 00:10:31.880 and if that happens, 473 00:10:32.099 --> 00:10:32.929 maybe that will, 474 00:10:32.940 --> 00:10:33.349 uh, 475 00:10:33.380 --> 00:10:35.940 mean that people will start supporting that candidate. 476 00:10:36.909 --> 00:10:39.340 Maybe they will think that candidate has a better chance to win. 477 00:10:39.390 --> 00:10:40.390 They'll get more excited about it. 478 00:10:40.469 --> 00:10:43.270 Maybe they'll think their candidate has a bigger chance to lose, 479 00:10:43.549 --> 00:10:45.530 and they'll be so depressed by that information 480 00:10:45.669 --> 00:10:47.489 that they will not go to the polls at all, 481 00:10:47.679 --> 00:10:48.799 and it manufactures, 482 00:10:48.809 --> 00:10:49.020 uh, 483 00:10:49.030 --> 00:10:49.270 a, 484 00:10:49.280 --> 00:10:49.559 uh, 485 00:10:49.590 --> 00:10:51.909 a major problem in our electoral system. 486 00:10:51.989 --> 00:10:52.890 That's kind of 487 00:10:53.270 --> 00:10:54.609 the thought process behind it. 488 00:10:54.830 --> 00:10:56.539 I wanna kind of go through this step by step, 489 00:10:56.950 --> 00:10:57.500 because I don't, 490 00:10:57.590 --> 00:10:58.890 I don't think people 491 00:10:59.469 --> 00:11:01.130 fully understand and grasp 492 00:11:02.469 --> 00:11:04.330 how difficult that would be to do. 493 00:11:05.440 --> 00:11:05.789 How, 494 00:11:06.119 --> 00:11:06.750 uh, 495 00:11:07.090 --> 00:11:08.700 silly it would be to attempt, 496 00:11:09.289 --> 00:11:10.830 how expensive it would be 497 00:11:10.969 --> 00:11:11.750 to maintain. 498 00:11:12.500 --> 00:11:13.750 And frankly, 499 00:11:13.869 --> 00:11:17.530 I don't know that it would lead to any results whatsoever at the end of the day anyway. 500 00:11:17.950 --> 00:11:18.140 So, 501 00:11:18.150 --> 00:11:19.169 let me go through this a little bit. 502 00:11:20.590 --> 00:11:21.359 The bottom line is, 503 00:11:21.669 --> 00:11:24.179 anybody can go into one of these markets if you're not insider trading, 504 00:11:24.229 --> 00:11:25.590 and you can legally buy shares. 505 00:11:25.679 --> 00:11:27.400 If you are just a supporter of a candidate,

506 00:11:27.479 --> 00:11:29.659 let's say you support uh James Tallarico, 507 00:11:29.760 --> 00:11:30.349 and you're like, 508 00:11:30.400 --> 00:11:32.859 I just want James Tallarico to have a bigger number. 509 00:11:33.179 --> 00:11:33.299 Uh, 510 00:11:33.419 --> 00:11:35.260 than he has in these prediction markets because, 511 00:11:35.580 --> 00:11:36.020 frankly, 512 00:11:36.140 --> 00:11:37.260 I don't even care if I win my, 513 00:11:37.380 --> 00:11:37.580 my, 514 00:11:37.659 --> 00:11:37.909 uh, 515 00:11:38.059 --> 00:11:38.820 my position or not. 516 00:11:38.900 --> 00:11:39.679 I just want 517 00:11:39.940 --> 00:11:40.510 to show, 518 00:11:40.619 --> 00:11:41.940 I wanna manipulate these markets. 519 00:11:42.039 --> 00:11:43.179 I wanna change these markets. 520 00:11:43.219 --> 00:11:43.619 I wanna say, 521 00:11:43.700 --> 00:11:44.090 look, 522 00:11:44.619 --> 00:11:45.260 these markets, 523 00:11:45.340 --> 00:11:45.489 uh, 524 00:11:45.500 --> 00:11:48.200 are gonna show Tallarico now as an 80% favorite, 525 00:11:48.440 --> 00:11:49.409 and everyone's gonna think, 526 00:11:49.500 --> 00:11:49.650 uh, 527 00:11:49.739 --> 00:11:50.200 he's on, 528 00:11:50.380 --> 00:11:50.570 on, 529 00:11:50.619 --> 00:11:50.859 on, 530 00:11:50.960 --> 00:11:51.219 on, 531 00:11:51.260 --> 00:11:51.849 uh, 532 00:11:51.859 --> 00:11:52.140 winning, 533 00:11:52.219 --> 00:11:55.099 and they're gonna get on the bandwagon and Tallarico is gonna actually win in Texas. 534 00:11:55.419 --> 00:11:55.619 OK, 535 00:11:55.780 --> 00:11:55.969 so, 536 00:11:56.140 --> 00:11:56.739 there's your theory. 537 00:11:59.229 --> 00:12:00.630 Moving a candidate from, 538 00:12:00.669 --> 00:12:03.229 I think we're Talarico is in the mid-60s to 80%, 539 00:12:03.309 --> 00:12:03.849 let's say, 540 00:12:04.030 --> 00:12:04.690 um, 541 00:12:05.070 --> 00:12:05.869 would be very, 542 00:12:05.950 --> 00:12:07.320 very expensive to do. 543 00:12:07.669 --> 00:12:08.010 Um, 544 00:12:08.059 --> 00:12:08.789 and in fact, 545 00:12:08.830 --> 00:12:10.409 we don't have to guess at these numbers, 546 00:12:10.469 --> 00:12:10.950 um. 547 00:12:11.919 --> 00:12:13.280 We can look at the markets. 548 00:12:13.359 --> 00:12:14.919 Do we have the Tallarico market ready? 549 00:12:15.200 --> 00:12:17.549 Here's the James Tallarico versus Ken Paxton market. 550 00:12:17.599 --> 00:12:18.020 You see 551 00:12:18.479 --> 00:12:18.799 what, 552 00:12:18.880 --> 00:12:19.030 uh, 553 00:12:19.039 --> 00:12:19.270 uh, 554 00:12:19.280 --> 00:12:19.820 what the, 555 00:12:19.919 --> 00:12:21.460 the history of this race is. 556 00:12:21.679 --> 00:12:21.789 Uh, 557 00:12:21.880 --> 00:12:23.190 Paxton heavy favorite, 558 00:12:23.400 --> 00:12:25.590 75% all the way up to the beginning of this year, 559 00:12:25.880 --> 00:12:26.479 started falling. 560 00:12:26.520 --> 00:12:27.479 It became a close race. 561 00:12:27.659 --> 00:12:28.719 In 2026, 562 00:12:28.979 --> 00:12:29.070 uh, 563 00:12:29.190 --> 00:12:31.090 beat him a 50/50 race in, 564 00:12:31.109 --> 00:12:32.130 let's say August 565 00:12:32.419 --> 00:12:34.070 and then has moved towards Tallarico. 566 00:12:34.140 --> 00:12:36.059 Now he's at 66% and I can't remember, 567 00:12:36.109 --> 00:12:37.750 I think this was the race we were talking about 568 00:12:37.950 --> 00:12:39.669 when we were talking about market manipulation because, 569 00:12:39.719 --> 00:12:39.830 you know, 570 00:12:39.950 --> 00:12:41.890 Tallarico's popped and honestly his polls 571 00:12:42.270 --> 00:12:43.369 aren't that great. 572 00:12:44.320 --> 00:12:44.440 Uh, 573 00:12:44.559 --> 00:12:45.400 Tarico's polls are, 574 00:12:45.460 --> 00:12:47.239 he's up by a couple of points over Paxson. 575 00:12:47.320 --> 00:12:47.599 Paxson, 576 00:12:47.679 --> 00:12:47.960 I would say, 577 00:12:48.000 --> 00:12:49.780 has narrowed the gap slightly recently, 578 00:12:50.030 --> 00:12:50.359 but you see, 579 00:12:50.479 --> 00:12:51.880 Tallarico percentage is up. 580 00:12:51.969 --> 00:12:52.299 So, 581 00:12:52.559 --> 00:12:52.760 why, 582 00:12:52.840 --> 00:12:53.280 what does that mean? 583 00:12:53.400 --> 00:12:53.479 Well, 584 00:12:53.549 --> 00:12:54.780 if you scroll down a little bit here, 585 00:12:55.239 --> 00:12:55.510 um, 586 00:12:55.640 --> 00:12:56.780 you can see exactly 587 00:12:56.919 --> 00:13:00.359 how much it would take to move these markets from mid-60s to 80s. 588 00:13:00.429 --> 00:13:01.960 If you click on James Tallarico's name there, 589 00:13:02.039 --> 00:13:03.039 we will get the order book. 590 00:13:03.200 --> 00:13:04.479 Order book is a really key thing. 591 00:13:04.679 --> 00:13:06.119 One of our predictable 101 592 00:13:06.270 --> 00:13:07.119 videos is handling that. 593 00:13:07.200 --> 00:13:08.140 That's coming out soon. 594 00:13:08.349 --> 00:13:08.549 Um, 595 00:13:08.719 --> 00:13:09.840 but you should always buy in the, 596 00:13:09.919 --> 00:13:10.200 in the, 597 00:13:10.280 --> 00:13:10.429 uh, 598 00:13:10.520 --> 00:13:10.669 in, 599 00:13:10.750 --> 00:13:11.039 in these, 600 00:13:11.119 --> 00:13:11.500 uh. 601 00:13:11.989 --> 00:13:12.119 Uh, 602 00:13:12.190 --> 00:13:13.000 when you're buying in these markets, 603 00:13:13.059 --> 00:13:13.719 use the order book. 604 00:13:13.919 --> 00:13:14.630 If you don't know how to use it, 605 00:13:14.679 --> 00:13:16.200 you can look at predictable one on one very soon, 606 00:13:16.239 --> 00:13:16.349 and, 607 00:13:16.440 --> 00:13:17.349 and we've got a whole video on it. 608 00:13:17.400 --> 00:13:17.679 OK. 609 00:13:18.590 --> 00:13:18.969 So 610 00:13:19.809 --> 00:13:23.799 What these things are showing are the available shares at different prices. 611 00:13:23.929 --> 00:13:24.520 So right now, 612 00:13:24.609 --> 00:13:25.229 you could buy 613 00:13:25.510 --> 00:13:27.950 455,000 shares 614 00:13:28.130 --> 00:13:30.469 and

change at 66 cents 615 00:13:30.770 --> 00:13:31.929 uh for James Tallarico. 616 00:13:32.380 --> 00:13:33.070 If you bought all the, 617 00:13:33.340 --> 00:13:33.780 the, 618 00:13:33.820 --> 00:13:35.780 the cost of that would be $300,000 619 00:13:35.900 --> 00:13:36.109 OK? 620 00:13:36.219 --> 00:13:36.460 So, 621 00:13:36.700 --> 00:13:38.659 for $300,000 you could move this market. 622 00:13:38.739 --> 00:13:39.210 You could, 623 00:13:39.340 --> 00:13:40.260 you could do it right now, 624 00:13:40.450 --> 00:13:41.400 in the comfort of your own home. 625 00:13:41.659 --> 00:13:43.929 You could move it from $6600 to 67 cents, 626 00:13:44.159 --> 00:13:44.530 OK? 627 00:13:44.780 --> 00:13:46.900 You could wipe out every share at 66 cents, 628 00:13:47.059 --> 00:13:51.299 you go to $67 and then that number that says 66 now would change to 67. 629 00:13:52.109 --> 00:13:52.229 Now, 630 00:13:52.270 --> 00:13:55.349 if you wanted to move it all the way to 80 cents, 631 00:13:56.469 --> 00:13:57.299 To pick a number, 632 00:13:57.400 --> 00:13:59.159 let's scroll up to 80 cents for a second here. 633 00:13:59.210 --> 00:14:01.700 You'd have to buy the 700,000 shares at 634 00:14:01.880 --> 00:14:03.859 uh 67 cents and all these, 635 00:14:03.880 --> 00:14:04.780 all the way up. 636 00:14:05.200 --> 00:14:06.419 To get to 80 cents, 637 00:14:06.880 --> 00:14:09.859 that would run you $1.3 million. 638 00:14:10.750 --> 00:14:11.190 Now, 639 00:14:11.590 --> 00:14:12.020 you might say, 640 00:14:12.080 --> 00:14:12.190 well, 641 00:14:12.270 --> 00:14:14.109 $1.3 million is a lot of money for me, 642 00:14:14.349 --> 00:14:14.510 sure, 643 00:14:14.630 --> 00:14:16.070 but there's billionaires out there, 644 00:14:16.140 --> 00:14:18.789 you got the Elon Musks and the George Soroses, 645 00:14:18.849 --> 00:14:21.200 and you got all these people that $1.3 million means nothing to them. 646 00:14:21.270 --> 00:14:22.090 They could do this. 647 00:14:22.549 --> 00:14:23.710 And the truth is, 648 00:14:24.580 --> 00:14:25.619 In theory, 649 00:14:26.530 --> 00:14:27.320 You're right. 650 00:14:27.859 --> 00:14:31.940 Someone could spend $1.3 million and buy this up to 80 cents. 651 00:14:32.049 --> 00:14:34.099 So that number that you see that says 66 cents 652 00:14:34.099 --> 00:14:36.099 right there would all of a sudden show 80 cents. 653 00:14:36.869 --> 00:14:37.880 And then people would be saying, 654 00:14:37.960 --> 00:14:38.520 oh gosh, 655 00:14:38.599 --> 00:14:39.750 James Tallaricos spiking, 656 00:14:39.799 --> 00:14:40.380 right? 657 00:14:40.840 --> 00:14:41.010 Yeah, 658 00:14:41.840 --> 00:14:42.520 not so fast. 659 00:14:43.630 --> 00:14:44.630 The problem here is, 660 00:14:44.679 --> 00:14:45.840 if you could do this, 661 00:14:45.880 --> 00:14:48.219 it would briefly push it up to 80 cents. 662 00:14:48.479 --> 00:14:50.390 But the market has an idea, 663 00:14:50.719 --> 00:14:51.150 right? 664 00:14:51.400 --> 00:14:52.070 The market 665 00:14:52.440 --> 00:14:53.979 has an idea as to 666 00:14:54.520 --> 00:14:56.000 what these prices should be. 667 00:14:56.200 --> 00:14:57.880 They think right now it should be 66 cents. 668 00:14:57.960 --> 00:14:59.820 That's what the market has decided right now. 669 00:15:00.320 --> 00:15:01.419 So what you would have 670 00:15:01.559 --> 00:15:03.099 are people who would come into the market, 671 00:15:03.320 --> 00:15:04.200 and all of a sudden say, 672 00:15:04.299 --> 00:15:04.440 well, 673 00:15:04.570 --> 00:15:05.119 wait a minute. 674 00:15:06.239 --> 00:15:08.039 That Tallarico price is too high. 675 00:15:09.039 --> 00:15:09.380 Now, 676 00:15:09.919 --> 00:15:11.479 Ken Paxton is underpriced. 677 00:15:11.559 --> 00:15:13.479 He should be at 35 cents. 678 00:15:13.869 --> 00:15:15.719 I'm gonna start buying at 20 cents. 679 00:15:16.559 --> 00:15:18.919 And people would start putting pressure on the market 680 00:15:18.919 --> 00:15:21.340 to bring that number from 80 for Tallarico, 681 00:15:21.679 --> 00:15:23.080 back to 66, 682 00:15:23.479 --> 00:15:23.789 right? 683 00:15:24.080 --> 00:15:24.440 They would say, 684 00:15:24.520 --> 00:15:24.599 well, 685 00:15:24.669 --> 00:15:25.280 wait a minute, 686 00:15:25.599 --> 00:15:26.510 there's all these people out there, 687 00:15:26.530 --> 00:15:28.340 and here's how I know there are these people out there. 688 00:15:28.599 --> 00:15:30.179 I am one of them. 689 00:15:30.450 --> 00:15:32.440 If I saw that go up to 80 cents right now, 690 00:15:32.520 --> 00:15:34.719 I would load up on Ken Paxton shares. 691 00:15:35.880 --> 00:15:36.340 Because, 692 00:15:36.799 --> 00:15:37.000 and I, 693 00:15:37.070 --> 00:15:37.320 and look, 694 00:15:37.400 --> 00:15:37.989 I don't have, 695 00:15:38.200 --> 00:15:38.400 you know, 696 00:15:38.570 --> 00:15:38.710 the, 697 00:15:38.919 --> 00:15:39.270 the, 698 00:15:39.280 --> 00:15:39.549 uh, 699 00:15:39.559 --> 00:15:40.109 financial, 700 00:15:40.159 --> 00:15:41.270 financial picture to, 701 00:15:41.280 --> 00:15:41.549 uh, 702 00:15:41.559 --> 00:15:42.739 to push these markets around, 703 00:15:43.479 --> 00:15:44.119 but I would be, 704 00:15:44.190 --> 00:15:45.000 and I have done this, 705 00:15:45.080 --> 00:15:46.530 when I've seen markets that I think 706 00:15:46.719 --> 00:15:47.659 come too low, 707 00:15:48.039 --> 00:15:50.159 I would absolutely load up and I would keep loading up, 708 00:15:50.200 --> 00:15:51.250 and you know who else would do it? 709 00:15:51.840 --> 00:15:54.020 Giant institutions with billions of dollars 710 00:15:54.280 --> 00:15:54.909 on their table. 711 00:15:55.119 --> 00:15:55.840 They would look at this and say, 712 00:15:55.950 --> 00:15:56.039 well, 713 00:15:56.080 --> 00:15:56.440 wait a minute, 714 00:15:56.520 --> 00:15:56.760 this is, 715 00:15:56.799 --> 00:15:57.799 this price is wrong. 716 00:15:57.880 --> 00:16:00.340 This market has moved in some

strange error. 717 00:16:00.669 --> 00:16:03.549 And we're gonna go up and load up on these shares until it came 718 00:16:03.549 --> 00:16:07.820 back from 80 to 67 or 66 or 65 or whatever it is. 719 00:16:08.309 --> 00:16:08.630 So, 720 00:16:08.909 --> 00:16:09.489 you now, 721 00:16:09.510 --> 00:16:12.409 as this rich person who's put a million dollars into this already. 722 00:16:13.469 --> 00:16:15.090 would have to sit there and defend 723 00:16:15.549 --> 00:16:16.969 that position at 80 cents. 724 00:16:17.190 --> 00:16:20.750 You would have to buy up all these shares and keep putting more and more, 725 00:16:20.950 --> 00:16:24.130 millions and millions and millions of dollars more 726 00:16:24.390 --> 00:16:26.909 onto the market to defend that 80 cents position. 727 00:16:27.950 --> 00:16:28.409 Now, 728 00:16:28.750 --> 00:16:30.849 you might be able to do it for some time. 729 00:16:31.349 --> 00:16:32.330 I don't know how long. 730 00:16:32.710 --> 00:16:34.669 If you want to put $100 million on there, 731 00:16:34.750 --> 00:16:36.469 you might be able to do it for a little while, 732 00:16:36.669 --> 00:16:37.109 right? 733 00:16:37.510 --> 00:16:38.330 But eventually, 734 00:16:38.500 --> 00:16:41.489 the price pressure would come back to where the markets believe 735 00:16:41.630 --> 00:16:42.630 it should be. 736 00:16:43.030 --> 00:16:44.250 There would be a violation 737 00:16:44.549 --> 00:16:45.169 of 738 00:16:45.270 --> 00:16:47.070 what the market of the market efficiency, 739 00:16:47.190 --> 00:16:48.380 and that would be a major problem. 740 00:16:48.710 --> 00:16:51.650 Maintaining that battle would cost you millions of dollars. 741 00:16:52.789 --> 00:16:53.169 Now, 742 00:16:53.590 --> 00:16:55.349 the problem with this also is, 743 00:16:55.539 --> 00:16:56.710 let's say you did that on Calci. 744 00:16:58.570 --> 00:16:59.669 There's another big issue here, 745 00:16:59.789 --> 00:17:00.280 which is, 746 00:17:00.390 --> 00:17:03.039 there are other prediction markets that have the same contract. 747 00:17:03.520 --> 00:17:05.510 When they get way out of whack like that, 748 00:17:05.760 --> 00:17:06.469 what happens? 749 00:17:06.800 --> 00:17:07.579 People start 750 00:17:07.839 --> 00:17:09.819 trading across platforms 751 00:17:10.040 --> 00:17:12.170 to bring those prices back down to reality. 752 00:17:12.439 --> 00:17:13.118 So people who are like, 753 00:17:13.219 --> 00:17:13.239 well, 754 00:17:13.319 --> 00:17:13.719 wait a minute, 755 00:17:13.800 --> 00:17:14.780 I can buy 756 00:17:15.069 --> 00:17:15.979 shares of 757 00:17:16.199 --> 00:17:18.300 a Ken Paxton at 20 cents right now, 758 00:17:18.839 --> 00:17:23.040 and then I can sell shares of Ken Paxton on the other exchange for 36 cents. 759 00:17:23.910 --> 00:17:24.280 Right? 760 00:17:24.709 --> 00:17:25.030 Because they, 761 00:17:25.160 --> 00:17:26.510 so there's a huge split there now. 762 00:17:26.868 --> 00:17:27.229 So, 763 00:17:27.270 --> 00:17:27.848 essentially, 764 00:17:28.229 --> 00:17:28.709 they can, 765 00:17:28.810 --> 00:17:28.979 you know, 766 00:17:29.109 --> 00:17:29.229 again, 767 00:17:29.310 --> 00:17:30.829 you have to have the financial resources to do this, 768 00:17:30.910 --> 00:17:31.109 but I, 769 00:17:31.189 --> 00:17:31.969 I assure you, 770 00:17:32.390 --> 00:17:33.369 people have them, 771 00:17:33.869 --> 00:17:35.430 and they would take across, 772 00:17:35.510 --> 00:17:36.469 it might be polymarket, 773 00:17:36.540 --> 00:17:37.260 it might be predicted, 774 00:17:37.310 --> 00:17:37.780 it might be, 775 00:17:37.790 --> 00:17:37.979 uh, 776 00:17:37.989 --> 00:17:40.010 all the pick the exchange, 777 00:17:40.349 --> 00:17:43.209 and they would start dumping money into that to arbitrage this 778 00:17:43.349 --> 00:17:44.670 and make a big profit that way. 779 00:17:44.780 --> 00:17:45.209 Again, 780 00:17:45.829 --> 00:17:47.430 more pressure that you have to fight off. 781 00:17:47.709 --> 00:17:49.030 Now you're into this for $10.20 dollars, 782 00:17:49.089 --> 00:17:51.310 $30 million who knows how many millions of dollars you're into this, 783 00:17:51.510 --> 00:17:51.839 but 784 00:17:52.300 --> 00:17:53.410 To defend that position, 785 00:17:53.630 --> 00:17:55.369 it would cost basically 786 00:17:55.709 --> 00:17:57.569 uh an unlimited amount of money. 787 00:17:58.569 --> 00:18:02.349 If it was truly a false position that only you were supporting, 788 00:18:02.699 --> 00:18:06.199 every other player in this market would be attacking you constantly, 789 00:18:06.619 --> 00:18:09.839 and you would not be able to defend that position without an unlimited 790 00:18:10.099 --> 00:18:10.680 amount of money. 791 00:18:12.349 --> 00:18:12.750 Now 792 00:18:15.250 --> 00:18:17.630 Trying to keep that gap open would cost even more. 793 00:18:18.290 --> 00:18:18.969 If you did, 794 00:18:19.050 --> 00:18:19.410 however, 795 00:18:19.650 --> 00:18:20.930 successfully inflate these odds. 796 00:18:22.819 --> 00:18:25.250 You have to remember that moving the price 797 00:18:25.430 --> 00:18:27.290 of the first prediction market 798 00:18:27.469 --> 00:18:28.349 is different 799 00:18:28.750 --> 00:18:29.630 than moving votes. 800 00:18:30.550 --> 00:18:32.650 You haven't accomplished anything yet, 801 00:18:33.050 --> 00:18:33.219 right? 802 00:18:33.310 --> 00:18:35.859 Your whole big goal of manipulating the election 803 00:18:36.060 --> 00:18:38.589 has not been accomplished by the fact that that says 80%. 804 00:18:38.709 --> 00:18:41.189 All you've done is create more profit opportunities for me. 805 00:18:41.349 --> 00:18:42.369 That's all you've done so far. 806 00:18:43.430 --> 00:18:44.339 So right now, 807 00:18:44.589 --> 00:18:46.270 you're at a position where you've created, 808 00:18:46.349 --> 00:18:46.550 OK, 809 00:18:46.650 --> 00:18:47.430 let's say there's some buzz. 810 00:18:47.520 --> 00:18:49.069 Maybe a

couple media institutions pick it up, 811 00:18:49.109 --> 00:18:50.790 but this has jumped from 66 to 80, 812 00:18:50.989 --> 00:18:51.150 and, 813 00:18:51.229 --> 00:18:53.739 and there's this one odd person buying millions and 814 00:18:53.739 --> 00:18:55.390 millions and millions of contracts at this price. 815 00:18:56.189 --> 00:18:56.739 OK, 816 00:18:56.989 --> 00:18:57.270 great. 817 00:18:58.959 --> 00:18:59.400 Now what? 818 00:19:02.040 --> 00:19:03.189 You have to understand that 819 00:19:03.560 --> 00:19:03.989 you're, 820 00:19:04.119 --> 00:19:05.560 if you're watching this show, 821 00:19:05.880 --> 00:19:06.300 first of all, 822 00:19:06.400 --> 00:19:07.119 I apologize, 823 00:19:07.199 --> 00:19:07.439 uh, 824 00:19:07.520 --> 00:19:07.719 you know, 825 00:19:07.839 --> 00:19:09.079 I barely even brush my hair in the morning, 826 00:19:09.199 --> 00:19:10.060 but secondly, 827 00:19:10.439 --> 00:19:11.319 and more importantly, 828 00:19:12.270 --> 00:19:12.619 You're, 829 00:19:12.709 --> 00:19:14.439 this is a brand new medium. 830 00:19:14.550 --> 00:19:16.140 We're one of the first shows that's 831 00:19:16.140 --> 00:19:18.790 ever been conceived to cover prediction markets. 832 00:19:21.550 --> 00:19:23.819 People don't understand these things yet, 833 00:19:24.109 --> 00:19:24.689 they don't 834 00:19:24.939 --> 00:19:25.910 watch them obsessively, 835 00:19:25.989 --> 00:19:26.180 like, 836 00:19:26.229 --> 00:19:26.930 like you might. 837 00:19:27.630 --> 00:19:28.430 They don't 838 00:19:29.069 --> 00:19:31.329 understand what what these things even do. 839 00:19:31.829 --> 00:19:32.609 Most people 840 00:19:32.760 --> 00:19:33.729 would likely 841 00:19:34.069 --> 00:19:35.180 not even know. 842 00:19:36.579 --> 00:19:39.790 That James Tallarico's price moved from 66 to 80 cents. 843 00:19:40.609 --> 00:19:42.829 They would not even know it occurred. 844 00:19:43.329 --> 00:19:44.729 The only way they would know it occurred 845 00:19:44.729 --> 00:19:47.250 is that maybe if a more mainstream institution 846 00:19:47.410 --> 00:19:48.089 picked up on it, 847 00:19:48.410 --> 00:19:49.410 spread it over multiple days. 848 00:19:49.489 --> 00:19:49.729 Again, 849 00:19:49.810 --> 00:19:51.770 how many millions of dollars are you spending to keep this price? 850 00:19:52.770 --> 00:19:53.219 And 851 00:19:53.479 --> 00:19:54.050 they would cover it and say, 852 00:19:54.079 --> 00:19:54.270 wow, 853 00:19:54.349 --> 00:19:56.949 James Tallarico Tallarico has uh has spiked. 854 00:19:57.060 --> 00:19:58.400 He's he's gone up to 80 cents. 855 00:19:59.439 --> 00:19:59.530 Well, 856 00:19:59.599 --> 00:20:00.369 what does that do? 857 00:20:02.119 --> 00:20:02.829 First of all, 858 00:20:03.280 --> 00:20:05.359 most people would not even know it existed. 859 00:20:05.400 --> 00:20:06.630 You've seen the numbers on CNN. 860 00:20:06.709 --> 00:20:07.560 If CNN ran this thing, 861 00:20:07.640 --> 00:20:07.949 you'd get,

862 00:20:08.030 --> 00:20:08.239 you know, 863 00:20:08.880 --> 00:20:10.780 a couple million super hyper 864 00:20:11.040 --> 00:20:12.619 politically engaged people, 865 00:20:12.839 --> 00:20:13.520 uh, 866 00:20:13.589 --> 00:20:15.400 who would maybe see it and maybe they're like, 867 00:20:15.469 --> 00:20:17.300 wow, ta Rico's doing better than I thought. 868 00:20:17.479 --> 00:20:17.680 But well, 869 00:20:17.770 --> 00:20:19.550 how would that change their behavior exactly? 870 00:20:19.760 --> 00:20:20.069 Remember, 871 00:20:20.079 --> 00:20:21.880 the people who are much more likely to 872 00:20:21.880 --> 00:20:24.219 know about a price change on a prediction market 873 00:20:24.359 --> 00:20:27.979 are the people who are highly politically engaged anyway. 874 00:20:28.869 --> 00:20:31.250 And therefore are very unlikely 875 00:20:31.550 --> 00:20:35.310 to change their vote or not vote because of a prediction market percentage. 876 00:20:36.369 --> 00:20:39.280 The what you'd be gaining here would be so small, 877 00:20:39.290 --> 00:20:40.770 at such a high cost, 878 00:20:41.010 --> 00:20:41.800 even if it worked, 879 00:20:41.849 --> 00:20:43.510 which I assure you it probably wouldn't. 880 00:20:45.530 --> 00:20:47.729 All of that to say that it would be, 881 00:20:47.930 --> 00:20:50.189 you'd be basically preaching to a choir, 882 00:20:50.329 --> 00:20:52.569 a choir of people who had already made up their minds. 883 00:20:53.780 --> 00:20:54.020 Very, 884 00:20:54.099 --> 00:20:55.459 very difficult to try to pull off. 885 00:20:55.619 --> 00:20:55.900 Also, 886 00:20:55.979 --> 00:20:57.719 you don't know what the effect of that is. 887 00:20:58.060 --> 00:20:58.260 Yeah, 888 00:20:58.420 --> 00:20:58.540 sure, 889 00:20:58.619 --> 00:20:58.819 if, 890 00:20:58.900 --> 00:20:59.050 if, 891 00:20:59.089 --> 00:21:00.239 let's say you want Tallarico to win, 892 00:21:00.260 --> 00:21:01.719 you push him up to 80 cents, 893 00:21:02.339 --> 00:21:02.699 yeah, 894 00:21:02.829 --> 00:21:03.050 uh, 895 00:21:03.140 --> 00:21:05.170 it's possible that some people might be like, 896 00:21:05.219 --> 00:21:05.619 oh gosh, 897 00:21:05.699 --> 00:21:05.819 you know, 898 00:21:06.180 --> 00:21:06.890 Republicans see that and like, 899 00:21:06.930 --> 00:21:07.260 oh God, 900 00:21:07.339 --> 00:21:08.060 this election's lost. 901 00:21:08.099 --> 00:21:09.719 I'm not gonna go vote for Ken Paxton. 902 00:21:10.180 --> 00:21:10.420 I mean, 903 00:21:10.540 --> 00:21:10.770 I, 904 00:21:10.859 --> 00:21:11.089 I, 905 00:21:11.180 --> 00:21:11.979 I live in Texas. 906 00:21:12.060 --> 00:21:13.699 I don't know anybody really who would do that, 907 00:21:13.819 --> 00:21:14.260 but OK, 908 00:21:14.339 --> 00:21:14.979 let's say there's, 909 00:21:15.060 --> 00:21:16.489 there's a few people out there that might do it. 910 00:21:16.530 --> 00:21:17.290 It's a close election, 911 00:21:17.339 --> 00:21:17.819 who knows. 912 00:21:18.239

--> 00:21:20.099 You might also get a lot of people 913 00:21:20.380 --> 00:21:20.699 who 914 00:21:20.920 --> 00:21:22.469 become complacent on your side and think, 915 00:21:22.520 --> 00:21:22.839 oh gosh, 916 00:21:22.910 --> 00:21:24.000 we've got this in the bag. 917 00:21:24.439 --> 00:21:24.560 I mean, 918 00:21:24.599 --> 00:21:25.140 I would think 919 00:21:25.280 --> 00:21:27.400 it's probably cancels each other out if you're lucky. 920 00:21:28.079 --> 00:21:28.770 On that front. 921 00:21:30.719 --> 00:21:31.449 And I also just to, 922 00:21:31.569 --> 00:21:31.719 just, 923 00:21:31.729 --> 00:21:31.930 uh, 924 00:21:32.040 --> 00:21:32.170 you know, 925 00:21:32.250 --> 00:21:33.550 look that up a couple of studies. 926 00:21:34.079 --> 00:21:34.869 Earlier in this year, 927 00:21:35.209 --> 00:21:35.479 uh, 928 00:21:35.609 --> 00:21:36.800 only about 20%, 929 00:21:36.930 --> 00:21:40.780 21% of American adults were even somewhat familiar with prediction markets. 930 00:21:41.130 --> 00:21:41.810 So you're talking about a, 931 00:21:41.849 --> 00:21:42.829 a small slice, 932 00:21:43.250 --> 00:21:43.369 that, 933 00:21:43.449 --> 00:21:44.630 that's somewhat familiar, 934 00:21:44.810 --> 00:21:45.410 not, 935 00:21:45.770 --> 00:21:46.130 uh, 936 00:21:46.250 --> 00:21:46.369 you know, 937 00:21:46.530 --> 00:21:48.969 hyper-engaged to know the price movement of every single market, 938 00:21:49.209 --> 00:21:49.569 OK? 939 00:21:49.880 --> 00:21:50.270 Um, 940 00:21:50.439 --> 00:21:51.020 another poll, 941 00:21:51.160 --> 00:21:51.439 uh, 942 00:21:51.560 --> 00:21:52.760 April 2026, 943 00:21:53.079 --> 00:21:55.599 71% of registered voters had recently heard 944 00:21:55.599 --> 00:21:57.300 little or nothing about prediction markets. 945 00:21:57.520 --> 00:21:57.989 By the way, 946 00:21:58.160 --> 00:21:58.319 I mean, 947 00:21:58.439 --> 00:21:59.760 look at the growth potential of this show. 948 00:21:59.880 --> 00:22:01.160 You won't even know what these things are yet. 949 00:22:01.869 --> 00:22:03.010 Maybe I was a little early. 950 00:22:03.150 --> 00:22:03.349 Um, 951 00:22:03.469 --> 00:22:06.250 and then 54% had heard nothing about them. 952 00:22:06.670 --> 00:22:10.819 The majority of our society has never heard of a prediction market. 953 00:22:11.270 --> 00:22:13.589 So how are you manipulating this exactly? 954 00:22:13.709 --> 00:22:15.130 How is that gonna work out for you? 955 00:22:15.670 --> 00:22:17.089 And a small percentage of people, 956 00:22:17.670 --> 00:22:18.469 growing vastly, 957 00:22:18.550 --> 00:22:18.869 by the way, 958 00:22:18.949 --> 00:22:19.839 and that's good, 959 00:22:20.189 --> 00:22:20.310 uh, 960 00:22:20.380 --> 00:22:21.589 but people don't really know. 961 00:22:21.640 --> 00:22:22.329 And the thing is, 962 00:22:22.469 --> 00:22:23.030 as it, 963 00:22:23.189 --> 00:22:24.050 as it grows, 964 00:22:24.180 --> 00:22:27.050 and as you might get to the potential where a market maneuver might, 965 00:22:27.229 --> 00:22:27.689 uh, 966 00:22:27.709 --> 00:22:29.130 manifest itself in a way that might, 967 00:22:29.189 --> 00:22:29.469 uh, 968 00:22:29.550 --> 00:22:29.709 you know, 969 00:22:29.989 --> 00:22:31.369 influence someone's opinion on an election. 970 00:22:33.040 --> 00:22:34.449 Prediction markets are growing so quickly, 971 00:22:34.569 --> 00:22:36.410 by that time there will be even more liquidity. 972 00:22:36.469 --> 00:22:38.010 It'll be even harder to move these markets. 973 00:22:39.540 --> 00:22:39.619 Every look, 974 00:22:39.709 --> 00:22:39.829 look, 975 00:22:39.949 --> 00:22:40.140 let's, 976 00:22:40.180 --> 00:22:41.089 it's one of those things. 977 00:22:41.849 --> 00:22:44.410 Around every little corner in the hedge maze is an end. 978 00:22:44.969 --> 00:22:46.699 You could try to navigate your way through it, 979 00:22:46.770 --> 00:22:48.339 but in this particular hedge maze, 980 00:22:48.380 --> 00:22:50.689 you just keep running into a bush over and over again. 981 00:22:51.020 --> 00:22:53.040 You just slam your face into prickers. 982 00:22:53.219 --> 00:22:53.979 That's what keeps happening. 983 00:22:54.050 --> 00:22:55.959 It would be almost impossible to do. 984 00:22:56.260 --> 00:22:56.420 Um, 985 00:22:56.459 --> 00:22:58.170 let me give you one more example about this, 986 00:22:58.380 --> 00:22:58.900 cause this is actually, 987 00:22:58.979 --> 00:22:59.760 we have some real. 988 00:23:00.489 --> 00:23:00.839 It's funny, 989 00:23:00.890 --> 00:23:02.869 it's in an article that makes it sound really ominous. 990 00:23:03.170 --> 00:23:05.119 On electoral electoral prediction markets, 991 00:23:05.369 --> 00:23:06.410 bets can be played, 992 00:23:06.689 --> 00:23:06.890 placed, 993 00:23:06.930 --> 00:23:07.280 excuse me, 994 00:23:07.349 --> 00:23:09.170 in an attempt to influence the results, 995 00:23:09.380 --> 00:23:10.530 not just predict them. 996 00:23:10.689 --> 00:23:11.969 Here's what to know. 997 00:23:12.130 --> 00:23:12.329 OK, 998 00:23:12.530 --> 00:23:13.060 so what's to know? 999 00:23:13.119 --> 00:23:13.250 Here, 1000 00:23:13.369 --> 00:23:16.040 here's the article How Prediction Markets Upstage Election polls. 1001 00:23:16.359 --> 00:23:16.489 Again, 1002 00:23:16.569 --> 00:23:17.650 I think they are superior, 1003 00:23:17.890 --> 00:23:18.750 but included, 1004 00:23:19.079 --> 00:23:19.449 like, 1005 00:23:19.609 --> 00:23:21.209 polls are part of prediction markets. 1006 00:23:21.520 --> 00:23:23.530 All human knowledge is part of a prediction market. 1007 00:23:23.609 --> 00:23:24.750 That's why it's so good. 1008 00:23:25.250 --> 00:23:25.410 Uh, 1009 00:23:25.650 --> 00:23:25.890 anyway. 1010 00:23:26.339 --> 00:23:26.719 Someone, 1011 00:23:27.219 --> 00:23:27.239 I, 1012 00:23:27.250 --> 00:23:28.780 and I don't even think this was a manipulation attempt, 1013 00:23:28.859 --> 00:23:29.380 to be fair. 1014 00:23:29.660 -->

00:23:32.160 This is just someone who really believed Spencer Pratt was, 1015 00:23:32.300 --> 00:23:32.640 uh, 1016 00:23:32.739 --> 00:23:33.180 uh, 1017 00:23:33.199 --> 00:23:33.300 it, 1018 00:23:33.380 --> 00:23:34.500 it could be a manipulation attempt, 1019 00:23:34.579 --> 00:23:37.520 but I think it was just a guy who just really believed Spencer Pratt was gonna win. 1020 00:23:37.739 --> 00:23:38.140 And by the way, 1021 00:23:38.199 --> 00:23:39.459 a local mayorals race, 1022 00:23:39.579 --> 00:23:40.500 one that was highly covered, 1023 00:23:40.569 --> 00:23:40.810 but a, 1024 00:23:40.819 --> 00:23:41.800 a local race, 1025 00:23:42.180 --> 00:23:44.520 he put $1.26 million 1026 00:23:45.140 --> 00:23:45.760 into, 1027 00:23:45.979 --> 00:23:46.420 uh, 1028 00:23:46.430 --> 00:23:47.619 Spencer Pratt to win. 1029 00:23:48.410 --> 00:23:48.880 And you might say, 1030 00:23:48.939 --> 00:23:49.050 well, 1031 00:23:49.089 --> 00:23:49.199 we, 1032 00:23:49.250 --> 00:23:49.369 you know, 1033 00:23:49.449 --> 00:23:51.930 all the stuff you've been talking about so far is somewhat hypothetical, 1034 00:23:52.060 --> 00:23:52.209 right? 1035 00:23:52.290 --> 00:23:54.079 Like where I'm saying that 1036 00:23:54.209 --> 00:23:55.410 people would push the price back down, 1037 00:23:55.489 --> 00:23:56.890 but you don't know whether to believe me or not. 1038 00:23:57.010 --> 00:23:57.349 Well, 1039 00:23:57.849 --> 00:23:58.599 here's what it looks like. 1040 00:23:58.650 --> 00:23:59.380 This is a chart, 1041 00:23:59.489 --> 00:23:59.689 uh, 1042 00:23:59.810 --> 00:24:00.770 Ben Freeman actually posted this, 1043 00:24:00.849 --> 00:24:01.689 but this is a chart. 1044 00:24:03.619 --> 00:24:04.219 You see, 1045 00:24:04.380 --> 00:24:04.719 uh, 1046 00:24:04.829 --> 00:24:05.239 uh, 1047 00:24:05.300 --> 00:24:07.520 Spencer Pratt was about 28 cents, 1048 00:24:07.900 --> 00:24:08.849 28% to win. 1049 00:24:09.140 --> 00:24:09.880 Someone put, 1050 00:24:10.560 --> 00:24:10.569 uh, 1051 00:24:10.770 --> 00:24:12.880 $1.3 million of their own money 1052 00:24:13.050 --> 00:24:15.040 to buy Spencer Pratt's shares with no 1053 00:24:15.250 --> 00:24:16.119 sense of price, 1054 00:24:16.339 --> 00:24:16.589 and, 1055 00:24:16.609 --> 00:24:20.430 and maybe it was a manipulation attempt just solely because. 1056 00:24:21.270 --> 00:24:25.020 You could get this many shares if you waited and were patient at 28 cents. 1057 00:24:25.310 --> 00:24:27.530 So why would you buy all of them up to 45 cents? 1058 00:24:27.670 --> 00:24:28.579 But let's say it was, 1059 00:24:28.910 --> 00:24:29.790 up to 45 cents, 1060 00:24:29.819 --> 00:24:31.170 it went from 28 to 45, 1061 00:24:31.270 --> 00:24:32.130 massive jump. 1062 00:24:32.430 --> 00:24:33.589 How long did that jump last? 1063 00:24:36.560 --> 00:24:37.500 9 seconds 1064 00:24:39.319 --> 00:24:40.380 The jump lasted 1065 00:24:40.520 --> 00:24:41.160 9. 1066 00:24:42.089 --> 00:24:42.770 Seconds 1067 00:24:44.290 --> 00:24:45.250 The Pratt trader bought, 1068 00:24:45.359 --> 00:24:45.550 uh, 1069 00:24:45.569 --> 00:24:46.410 bought through the order book, 1070 00:24:46.520 --> 00:24:48.510 leading to a massive but temporary change in price. 1071 00:24:48.890 --> 00:24:52.170 The distortion involved a whopping $1.25 million over the course of 1072 00:24:52.170 --> 00:24:56.209 39 trades during a four-hour period visualized in red below. 1073 00:24:56.410 --> 00:24:57.550 The largest of these trades created a 1074 00:24:57.550 --> 00:25:00.530 drama dramatic book activity easily visualized here. 1075 00:25:00.609 --> 00:25:01.810 When he got it up to $45 though, 1076 00:25:01.890 --> 00:25:03.250 it lasted like nine seconds. 1077 00:25:06.650 --> 00:25:07.660 That's not a long time. 1078 00:25:08.329 --> 00:25:10.170 You'd have to have really perceptive people to 1079 00:25:10.170 --> 00:25:12.310 change their vote over that 9 2nd difference, 1080 00:25:12.670 --> 00:25:13.050 um. 1081 00:25:14.569 --> 00:25:15.209 I think, 1082 00:25:15.329 --> 00:25:16.469 to be fair here, 1083 00:25:16.709 --> 00:25:20.810 if you go back enough time or find a market that has no money in it. 1084 00:25:21.530 --> 00:25:21.729 You know, 1085 00:25:21.810 --> 00:25:24.160 there are a lot of small markets like certain margin markets, 1086 00:25:24.209 --> 00:25:25.589 but a lot of this stuff is all, 1087 00:25:25.750 --> 00:25:26.229 uh, 1088 00:25:26.290 --> 00:25:27.750 there's pressures created by it. 1089 00:25:27.959 --> 00:25:29.189 I think if you found a really small market, 1090 00:25:29.250 --> 00:25:30.150 you could move it around, 1091 00:25:30.439 --> 00:25:31.209 probably still. 1092 00:25:31.369 --> 00:25:33.010 I think if you go back 8, 1093 00:25:33.089 --> 00:25:34.030 10 years, 1094 00:25:34.530 --> 00:25:36.030 more of this stuff was attempted 1095 00:25:36.449 --> 00:25:36.560 because, 1096 00:25:36.630 --> 00:25:36.969 you know, 1097 00:25:37.180 --> 00:25:38.329 no one really knew about these things. 1098 00:25:38.410 --> 00:25:39.489 There wasn't a lot of money in them. 1099 00:25:39.569 --> 00:25:39.640 It, 1100 00:25:39.729 --> 00:25:40.589 it wasn't, 1101 00:25:40.650 --> 00:25:43.729 all these different mechanisms didn't necessarily exist 1102 00:25:43.729 --> 00:25:45.229 to correct the price really quickly. 1103 00:25:45.609 --> 00:25:46.609 All that to be said though, 1104 00:25:46.719 --> 00:25:47.349 right now, 1105 00:25:47.930 --> 00:25:48.770 you could attempt it. 1106 00:25:49.390 --> 00:25:52.180 What you would find it was almost impossible to maintain, 1107 00:25:52.390 --> 00:25:54.170 would be massively expensive, 1108 00:25:54.310 --> 00:25:56.369 and would give you almost no results. 1109 00:25:56.869 --> 00:25:57.189 So, 1110 00:25:57.390 --> 00:25:58.160 if that's the, 1111 00:25:58.229 --> 00:25:58.250 the, 1112 00:25:58.260 --> 00:25:59.709 the road you wanna go down, 1113 00:25:59.910 --> 00:26:00.849

give it a whirl. 1114 00:26:01.540 --> 00:26:01.910 Um, 1115 00:26:02.040 --> 00:26:02.650 but I think 1116 00:26:02.949 --> 00:26:03.550 at the end of the day, 1117 00:26:03.589 --> 00:26:04.349 you'd realize that, 1118 00:26:04.510 --> 00:26:04.630 you know, 1119 00:26:04.670 --> 00:26:07.689 if you've got 1020 $30 million to spend. 1120 00:26:08.040 --> 00:26:09.319 To try to hype up an election, 1121 00:26:09.530 --> 00:26:10.530 you're much better, 1122 00:26:10.770 --> 00:26:11.530 more likely to just, 1123 00:26:11.609 --> 00:26:11.989 you know, 1124 00:26:12.369 --> 00:26:13.030 try to 1125 00:26:13.250 --> 00:26:15.329 put together an organization and go door to door, 1126 00:26:15.530 --> 00:26:17.589 or to buy television or radio ads, 1127 00:26:17.770 --> 00:26:18.510 or to do 1128 00:26:18.650 --> 00:26:22.550 any number of normal things in a super PAC that you could do 1129 00:26:22.650 --> 00:26:24.410 and that people are doing all the time. 1130 00:26:24.729 --> 00:26:27.790 This would be likely a massive waste of your money. 1131 00:26:28.130 --> 00:26:28.579 And, 1132 00:26:28.589 --> 00:26:28.760 uh, 1133 00:26:28.770 --> 00:26:29.689 if you wanted to attempt that, 1134 00:26:29.729 --> 00:26:30.349 you could, 1135 00:26:31.010 --> 00:26:33.030 but it is a fool's gold, 1136 00:26:33.329 --> 00:26:34.750 and a fool's errand as well. 1137 00:26:35.010 --> 00:26:35.140 Uh, 1138 00:26:35.209 --> 00:26:35.550 so, 1139 00:26:35.810 --> 00:26:35.930 the, 1140 00:26:36.010 --> 00:26:37.170 the truth of this is. 1141 00:26:37.689 --> 00:26:38.170 When you think, 1142 00:26:38.250 --> 00:26:38.530 oh gosh, 1143 00:26:38.599 --> 00:26:39.650 these things are being manipulated, 1144 00:26:40.010 --> 00:26:41.530 almost certainly no is the answer. 1145 00:26:42.709 --> 00:26:44.079 Almost certainly, 1146 00:26:44.349 --> 00:26:44.670 no. 1147 00:26:46.780 --> 00:26:48.119 There's just no pathway 1148 00:26:48.300 --> 00:26:48.819 to do it 1149 00:26:48.979 --> 00:26:49.979 and do it comfortably. 1150 00:26:50.219 --> 00:26:50.459 Um, 1151 00:26:50.579 --> 00:26:50.780 and, 1152 00:26:50.859 --> 00:26:51.060 uh, 1153 00:26:51.170 --> 00:26:51.739 and honestly, 1154 00:26:51.819 --> 00:26:52.660 even if you did do it, 1155 00:26:52.780 --> 00:26:54.839 it probably wouldn't accomplish anything. 1156 00:26:55.219 --> 00:26:55.560 So, 1157 00:26:55.900 --> 00:26:56.780 that's the truth about that. 1158 00:26:56.900 --> 00:26:56.979 Uh, 1159 00:26:57.060 --> 00:26:58.199 we have more coming up here in a second. 1160 00:26:58.260 --> 00:26:58.859 I wanna get into, 1161 00:26:58.939 --> 00:26:59.130 uh, 1162 00:26:59.140 --> 00:26:59.760 Ohio. 1163 00:27:00.339 --> 00:27:02.260 I wanna get into South Carolina a little bit. 1164 00:27:02.300 --> 00:27:02.579 This is, 1165 00:27:02.589 --> 00:27:02.900 uh, 1166 00:27:03.020 --> 00:27:05.219 South Carolina a little bit on the fringes of this election all of a sudden, 1167 00:27:05.300 --> 00:27:05.780

isn't it? 1168 00:27:06.089 --> 00:27:06.339 Uh, 1169 00:27:06.500 --> 00:27:07.260 that market is, 1170 00:27:07.339 --> 00:27:08.859 is getting kind of interesting. 1171 00:27:09.199 --> 00:27:09.400 Um, 1172 00:27:09.439 --> 00:27:11.459 and some of the ads being run in those campaigns 1173 00:27:11.599 --> 00:27:12.500 are getting interesting. 1174 00:27:12.719 --> 00:27:12.959 Uh, 1175 00:27:13.079 --> 00:27:14.739 so join us at PredictableShow.com. 1176 00:27:14.829 --> 00:27:15.000 By the way, 1177 00:27:15.079 --> 00:27:16.859 we're gonna be doing some live streams coming up here 1178 00:27:16.859 --> 00:27:18.699 to try to get you prepped for the election, 1179 00:27:19.040 --> 00:27:20.900 and of course our election night coverage will be there 1180 00:27:21.260 --> 00:27:21.900 as well. 1181 00:27:22.079 --> 00:27:24.479 We really appreciate you joining us and checking this stuff out. 1182 00:27:24.560 --> 00:27:24.680 I guess, 1183 00:27:24.790 --> 00:27:26.140 as I said just a second ago, 1184 00:27:26.760 --> 00:27:27.359 you're early. 1185 00:27:27.729 --> 00:27:29.119 You're really early on this stuff. 1186 00:27:29.250 --> 00:27:32.119 You understand this stuff before almost anyone around you. 1187 00:27:32.489 --> 00:27:32.770 So, 1188 00:27:33.050 --> 00:27:34.199 take time to understand it, 1189 00:27:34.250 --> 00:27:36.229 to grow and to figure this stuff out, 1190 00:27:36.329 --> 00:27:36.989 but realize, 1191 00:27:37.670 --> 00:27:38.410 be patient with it. 1192 00:27:38.609 --> 00:27:39.560 There is a bit of a, 1193 00:27:39.640 --> 00:27:39.880 uh, 1194 00:27:39.890 --> 00:27:42.609 an uptake when it comes to understanding how these markets work and, 1195 00:27:42.630 --> 00:27:44.050 and what you can do with them and 1196 00:27:44.329 --> 00:27:46.229 how they can be utilized to your benefit. 1197 00:27:46.319 --> 00:27:47.530 We're gonna help you walk you, 1198 00:27:47.670 --> 00:27:48.609 walk you through that process, 1199 00:27:48.619 --> 00:27:48.890 and 1200 00:27:49.050 --> 00:27:50.630 I'll just remem uh recommend again, 1201 00:27:50.770 --> 00:27:51.890 predictable101.com. 1202 00:27:51.930 --> 00:27:53.030 If you're just getting into predictable, 1203 00:27:53.369 --> 00:27:53.589 uh, 1204 00:27:53.609 --> 00:27:54.390 prediction markets, 1205 00:27:54.410 --> 00:27:54.680 uh, 1206 00:27:54.689 --> 00:27:55.229 at the beginning. 1207 00:27:55.739 --> 00:27:56.699 It's a great place to go. 1208 00:27:56.810 --> 00:27:58.760 We'll get you everywhere from signing up to a site, 1209 00:27:58.979 --> 00:27:59.160 uh, 1210 00:27:59.170 --> 00:28:01.619 all the way to buying and selling and all the different ways that they have it, 1211 00:28:01.819 --> 00:28:01.969 uh, 1212 00:28:02.060 --> 00:28:02.780 and more to come. 1213 00:28:02.900 --> 00:28:03.060 So, 1214 00:28:03.079 --> 00:28:03.939 predictable 101, 1215 00:28:04.050 --> 00:28:04.819 great resource for you, 1216 00:28:05.099 --> 00:28:05.719 completely free. 1217 00:28:05.859 --> 00:28:06.020 All right, 1218 00:28:06.099 --> 00:28:06.619 back in a second. 1219 00:28:24.459 --> 00:28:27.079 And now it's time for a tale of two ads. 1220 00:28:27.219 --> 00:28:27.760 Um, 1221 00:28:27.859 --> 00:28:28.640 I 1222 00:28:28.819 --> 00:28:29.780 have noticed a. 1223 00:28:30.520 --> 00:28:32.239 An incongruity, 1224 00:28:32.420 --> 00:28:32.599 if, 1225 00:28:32.680 --> 00:28:33.400 if I may, 1226 00:28:33.479 --> 00:28:33.670 uh, 1227 00:28:33.920 --> 00:28:34.790 between a couple of different ads. 1228 00:28:34.800 --> 00:28:35.739 I wanna walk you 1229 00:28:35.969 --> 00:28:36.640 through this and, 1230 00:28:36.760 --> 00:28:38.300 and show you a couple of prediction markets 1231 00:28:38.640 --> 00:28:40.180 that might give us some opportunities. 1232 00:28:40.400 --> 00:28:40.719 Um, 1233 00:28:40.880 --> 00:28:41.079 here, 1234 00:28:41.160 --> 00:28:41.390 uh, 1235 00:28:41.520 --> 00:28:41.589 we, 1236 00:28:41.660 --> 00:28:43.680 we have the Vivek Ramaswamy ad first. 1237 00:28:43.839 --> 00:28:46.780 Ohio venues are canceling Vivek Ramaswamy events 1238 00:28:47.079 --> 00:28:48.439 as backlash grows. 1239 00:28:48.520 --> 00:28:50.500 This is in response to an ad 1240 00:28:50.880 --> 00:28:51.479 that he put, 1241 00:28:51.560 --> 00:28:52.010 um, 1242 00:28:52.140 --> 00:28:52.619 I mean, 1243 00:28:52.750 --> 00:28:53.699 he didn't say these things, 1244 00:28:53.880 --> 00:28:54.239 but the, 1245 00:28:54.359 --> 00:28:54.979 the mother 1246 00:28:55.329 --> 00:28:56.119 of his opponent, 1247 00:28:56.199 --> 00:28:58.180 Amy Acton said things about 1248 00:28:58.359 --> 00:28:59.040 Amy Acton. 1249 00:28:59.500 --> 00:29:00.449 Said basically this is my daughter. 1250 00:29:00.500 --> 00:29:00.910 I don't think we, 1251 00:29:00.979 --> 00:29:01.319 I think, 1252 00:29:01.420 --> 00:29:02.290 did we run the ad over here? 1253 00:29:02.300 --> 00:29:02.849 I don't even remember. 1254 00:29:02.900 --> 00:29:04.680 I know we did it on Stu and Dave do America, 1255 00:29:04.939 --> 00:29:05.130 but, 1256 00:29:05.140 --> 00:29:05.520 um, 1257 00:29:05.619 --> 00:29:06.729 basically the ad was, 1258 00:29:07.099 --> 00:29:07.300 hey, 1259 00:29:07.380 --> 00:29:08.359 my daughter's a liar. 1260 00:29:08.459 --> 00:29:09.560 She lies all the time. 1261 00:29:09.619 --> 00:29:09.969 Um, 1262 00:29:10.020 --> 00:29:10.500 I love her, 1263 00:29:10.609 --> 00:29:12.020 but she does not tell the truth. 1264 00:29:12.140 --> 00:29:12.839 Don't vote for her. 1265 00:29:13.260 --> 00:29:13.930 You get that pitch. 1266 00:29:14.140 --> 00:29:14.810 Now this is 1267 00:29:15.020 --> 00:29:17.119 much more complicated than I just laid it out because. 1268 00:29:17.479 --> 00:29:17.930 Um, 1269 00:29:18.089 --> 00:29:21.069 Amy Acton said that she was abused as a child 1270 00:29:21.410 --> 00:29:22.030 by 1271 00:29:22.410 --> 00:29:24.150 this biological mother's, 1272 00:29:24.489 -->

00:29:25.420 uh, 1273 00:29:25.449 --> 00:29:25.880 husband, 1274 00:29:26.089 --> 00:29:27.930 so Amy Acton's stepfather, 1275 00:29:27.969 --> 00:29:28.750 if I have the, 1276 00:29:28.969 --> 00:29:30.079 the family tree here, 1277 00:29:30.130 --> 00:29:30.290 uh, 1278 00:29:30.449 --> 00:29:30.910 correct. 1279 00:29:31.329 --> 00:29:34.489 And so they left the house and have not talked to her in a very long time. 1280 00:29:36.050 --> 00:29:36.540 Um, 1281 00:29:38.859 --> 00:29:39.339 Quite 1282 00:29:39.609 --> 00:29:40.040 clearly, 1283 00:29:40.209 --> 00:29:41.890 the media has looked at this and said, 1284 00:29:41.969 --> 00:29:42.130 OK, 1285 00:29:42.250 --> 00:29:42.329 well, 1286 00:29:42.410 --> 00:29:43.069 we believe, 1287 00:29:43.329 --> 00:29:43.640 you know, 1288 00:29:43.890 --> 00:29:44.689 believe all women. 1289 00:29:45.010 --> 00:29:46.329 They believe one of the women, 1290 00:29:46.569 --> 00:29:47.479 which is Amy Acton, 1291 00:29:47.530 --> 00:29:49.569 and don't believe the other woman who is the mom. 1292 00:29:49.729 --> 00:29:49.849 Now, 1293 00:29:49.890 --> 00:29:50.949 I don't know what happened here, 1294 00:29:51.050 --> 00:29:51.099 uh, 1295 00:29:51.130 --> 00:29:51.609 frankly, 1296 00:29:51.729 --> 00:29:51.880 uh, 1297 00:29:51.969 --> 00:29:52.130 you know, 1298 00:29:52.209 --> 00:29:52.599 I. 1299 00:29:53.420 --> 00:29:53.739 It's, 1300 00:29:53.780 --> 00:29:55.219 it's a million years ago and I don't know. 1301 00:29:55.300 --> 00:29:55.459 I mean, 1302 00:29:55.540 --> 00:29:56.130 uh, 1303 00:29:56.339 --> 00:29:57.660 a lot of the evidence makes me think that 1304 00:29:57.660 --> 00:29:59.420 maybe Amy Acton is telling the truth about it, 1305 00:29:59.579 --> 00:29:59.859 but I, 1306 00:29:59.939 --> 00:30:00.099 I, 1307 00:30:00.260 --> 00:30:00.660 I don't know, 1308 00:30:00.770 --> 00:30:00.900 you know, 1309 00:30:00.969 --> 00:30:01.180 I just, 1310 00:30:01.260 --> 00:30:03.300 it's one of those things that it's hard for me to litigate, 1311 00:30:03.380 --> 00:30:03.540 um, 1312 00:30:03.619 --> 00:30:05.160 and nor do I ever wanna think about it. 1313 00:30:05.500 --> 00:30:05.729 Uh, 1314 00:30:05.869 --> 00:30:06.339 obviously, 1315 00:30:06.420 --> 00:30:08.819 if Amy Acton was lying about something this serious, 1316 00:30:08.859 --> 00:30:10.540 it would be something that would be notable and, 1317 00:30:10.660 --> 00:30:11.900 and votes of Ohio, 1318 00:30:11.939 --> 00:30:12.219 uh, 1319 00:30:12.540 --> 00:30:13.140 should know about it. 1320 00:30:13.219 --> 00:30:13.500 But 1321 00:30:13.699 --> 00:30:13.979 then again, 1322 00:30:14.099 --> 00:30:14.849 if she wasn't lying, 1323 00:30:14.900 --> 00:30:16.579 it's a terrible intrusion into a, 1324 00:30:16.729 --> 00:30:17.959 an awful moment, 1325 00:30:18.020 --> 00:30:18.180 uh, 1326 00:30:18.300 --> 00:30:18.500 and, 1327 00:30:18.540 --> 00:30:19.160 uh, 1328 00:30:19.180 --> 00:30:20.479 era of her life, 1329 00:30:20.939 --> 00:30:22.119 and nobody wants that. 1330 00:30:22.540 --> 00:30:22.829 So. 1331 00:30:23.459 --> 00:30:24.680 That's kind of the background of this. 1332 00:30:24.780 --> 00:30:24.969 Now, 1333 00:30:25.099 --> 00:30:27.739 Major Ohio newspapers are reversing their policy 1334 00:30:27.739 --> 00:30:29.849 on endorsements to condemn Ramaswammiy ad. 1335 00:30:29.900 --> 00:30:30.959 I guess they weren't going to, 1336 00:30:30.969 --> 00:30:31.130 uh, 1337 00:30:31.140 --> 00:30:31.959 endorse at all 1338 00:30:32.180 --> 00:30:32.819 in this race, 1339 00:30:32.939 --> 00:30:37.099 so instead they decided they were going to endorse and they endorsed Amy Acton. 1340 00:30:37.660 --> 00:30:38.000 So, 1341 00:30:38.500 --> 00:30:38.619 uh, 1342 00:30:38.780 --> 00:30:39.579 because of this ad. 1343 00:30:40.780 --> 00:30:41.310 OK, 1344 00:30:41.729 --> 00:30:42.010 um, 1345 00:30:42.150 --> 00:30:44.680 polls show Ramoswami falling behind in Ohio's 1346 00:30:44.680 --> 00:30:46.550 governor's race is the headline from, 1347 00:30:46.589 --> 00:30:47.410 uh, 1348 00:30:47.619 --> 00:30:47.880 from, 1349 00:30:47.930 --> 00:30:48.280 uh, 1350 00:30:48.449 --> 00:30:48.880 what is this, 1351 00:30:48.890 --> 00:30:49.209 uh, 1352 00:30:49.329 --> 00:30:49.640 source, 1353 00:30:49.760 --> 00:30:50.170 uh. 1354 00:30:51.150 --> 00:30:51.790 I don't know what it is. 1355 00:30:51.910 --> 00:30:52.329 Anyway, 1356 00:30:52.579 --> 00:30:52.900 uh, 1357 00:30:52.989 --> 00:30:53.219 it is, 1358 00:30:53.229 --> 00:30:53.380 uh, 1359 00:30:53.469 --> 00:30:53.579 they, 1360 00:30:53.709 --> 00:30:56.469 they cite a New York Times Sienna poll released October 3rd. 1361 00:30:56.790 --> 00:30:56.989 Again, 1362 00:30:57.089 --> 00:30:57.099 that, 1363 00:30:57.270 --> 00:30:58.420 that might be before the ad, 1364 00:30:58.469 --> 00:30:58.849 right? 1365 00:30:59.229 --> 00:31:00.280 That was before the ad. 1366 00:31:00.550 --> 00:31:00.750 Um, 1367 00:31:00.829 --> 00:31:01.650 on October 20, 1368 00:31:01.790 --> 00:31:04.229 20th poll has it as a 7 point lead. 1369 00:31:04.310 --> 00:31:05.469 So it went from 4 to 7, 1370 00:31:05.510 --> 00:31:06.349 I guess is their point. 1371 00:31:07.040 --> 00:31:07.689 Um, 1372 00:31:07.890 --> 00:31:08.040 you know, 1373 00:31:08.170 --> 00:31:08.290 again, 1374 00:31:08.390 --> 00:31:09.119 two different pollsters, 1375 00:31:09.130 --> 00:31:10.459 you can't really compare 1376 00:31:10.689 --> 00:31:11.599 two different pollsters, 1377 00:31:11.689 --> 00:31:11.930 um, 1378 00:31:12.089 --> 00:31:12.449 like that, 1379 00:31:12.569 --> 00:31:12.869 but 1380 00:31:12.989 --> 00:31:13.400 whatever. 1381 00:31:13.650 --> 00:31:13.770 Uh, 1382 00:31:13.839 --> 00:31:14.369 you get the point. 1383 00:31:14.489 --> 00:31:14.650 They're, 1384 00:31:14.770 --> 00:31:16.459 they're making this narrative that now it's more of a blowout. 1385 00:31:16.569 --> 00:31:17.089 Now it's been, 1386

00:31:17.250 --> 00:31:17.359 uh, 1387 00:31:17.609 --> 00:31:19.390 Acton's had a lead for a while. 1388 00:31:20.280 --> 00:31:21.300 Hasn't been huge 1389 00:31:22.000 --> 00:31:22.569 Um, 1390 00:31:22.729 --> 00:31:23.310 and 1391 00:31:23.410 --> 00:31:25.469 I don't know how much this ad is affecting, 1392 00:31:25.599 --> 00:31:25.880 uh, 1393 00:31:26.060 --> 00:31:26.209 this. 1394 00:31:26.250 --> 00:31:27.430 I think it is a big talking point. 1395 00:31:27.489 --> 00:31:28.890 I think people are talking about it 1396 00:31:29.130 --> 00:31:29.579 in Ohio. 1397 00:31:29.650 --> 00:31:32.410 I do think sometimes the people who pay super 1398 00:31:32.410 --> 00:31:34.479 close attention to politics in the media and, 1399 00:31:34.530 --> 00:31:34.650 you know, 1400 00:31:34.729 --> 00:31:35.709 on Twitter and everything else 1401 00:31:35.849 --> 00:31:37.349 tend to make more out of 1402 00:31:37.569 --> 00:31:38.910 some of these controversies than, 1403 00:31:39.050 --> 00:31:39.239 uh, 1404 00:31:39.250 --> 00:31:40.209 actual voters do. 1405 00:31:40.709 --> 00:31:41.119 Um, 1406 00:31:41.280 --> 00:31:41.439 you know, 1407 00:31:41.550 --> 00:31:41.680 I, 1408 00:31:41.760 --> 00:31:42.750 it's hard to, 1409 00:31:43.160 --> 00:31:44.050 there are definitely people like, 1410 00:31:44.079 --> 00:31:44.280 think it, 1411 00:31:44.479 --> 00:31:44.750 I mean, 1412 00:31:44.760 --> 00:31:45.459 think about 1413 00:31:45.599 --> 00:31:45.719 what, 1414 00:31:45.800 --> 00:31:47.839 what it would make you to switch parties right now. 1415 00:31:47.920 --> 00:31:49.699 What kind of ad would it need to be 1416 00:31:50.030 --> 00:31:51.219 for you to decide to vote, 1417 00:31:51.449 --> 00:31:51.640 uh, 1418 00:31:51.760 --> 00:31:53.920 for higher or lower taxes or, 1419 00:31:54.040 --> 00:31:54.199 uh, 1420 00:31:54.280 --> 00:31:54.560 you know, 1421 00:31:54.680 --> 00:31:54.839 uh, 1422 00:31:54.920 --> 00:31:55.709 uh, 1423 00:31:55.760 --> 00:31:57.219 the Second Amendment or not the Second Amendment, 1424 00:31:57.280 --> 00:31:57.859 whatever your, 1425 00:31:58.239 --> 00:31:59.420 your opinions are. 1426 00:31:59.719 --> 00:32:01.160 Changing those views for you is, 1427 00:32:01.239 --> 00:32:02.800 is probably pretty hard to do 1428 00:32:03.079 --> 00:32:04.079 and we have to shake you up a little. 1429 00:32:04.209 --> 00:32:05.579 This is a pretty dramatic moment. 1430 00:32:06.079 --> 00:32:06.310 Um, 1431 00:32:06.479 --> 00:32:08.310 this is how the markets have reacted to this, 1432 00:32:08.319 --> 00:32:08.550 and, 1433 00:32:08.680 --> 00:32:08.800 uh, 1434 00:32:08.959 --> 00:32:10.119 and it's kind of interesting. 1435 00:32:11.010 --> 00:32:11.290 Um, 1436 00:32:11.329 --> 00:32:11.890 you see, 1437 00:32:11.969 --> 00:32:12.119 uh, 1438 00:32:12.130 --> 00:32:12.530 Acton, 1439 00:32:12.609 --> 00:32:17.560 after really this being a 50/50 race up until September-ish or so. 1440 00:32:17.890 --> 00:32:18.239

When was it? 1441 00:32:18.290 --> 00:32:19.640 Can you check the date on this ad? 1442 00:32:19.810 --> 00:32:20.829 When did this ad come out? 1443 00:32:20.930 --> 00:32:21.089 I think, 1444 00:32:21.170 --> 00:32:22.699 I feel like it was like 2 or 3 weeks ago. 1445 00:32:23.010 --> 00:32:24.729 So I think it was definitely in October. 1446 00:32:25.000 --> 00:32:25.130 Um, 1447 00:32:25.219 --> 00:32:25.479 we will, 1448 00:32:25.530 --> 00:32:25.689 uh, 1449 00:32:25.770 --> 00:32:26.969 we'll get you to that here in a second, 1450 00:32:27.060 --> 00:32:27.469 but 1451 00:32:28.199 --> 00:32:28.609 Um, 1452 00:32:29.969 --> 00:32:30.229 The, 1453 00:32:30.239 --> 00:32:31.229 the race itself 1454 00:32:31.810 --> 00:32:32.910 is an interesting one. 1455 00:32:33.449 --> 00:32:35.469 And if you saw that market 1456 00:32:35.770 --> 00:32:36.680 and how it had moved, 1457 00:32:36.930 --> 00:32:39.650 it now has it as a 77 to 23 race. 1458 00:32:39.709 --> 00:32:40.400 It looked like it was about, 1459 00:32:40.469 --> 00:32:41.010 it pop, 1460 00:32:41.089 --> 00:32:42.609 it's off a little bit off of its highs, 1461 00:32:42.650 --> 00:32:43.949 but it was 80/20, 1462 00:32:43.959 --> 00:32:44.810 not that long ago. 1463 00:32:45.819 --> 00:32:46.900 Vivek Ramaswamy is 1464 00:32:47.119 --> 00:32:48.060 in a red state. 1465 00:32:48.859 --> 00:32:50.189 And is, 1466 00:32:50.270 --> 00:32:50.989 uh, 1467 00:32:51.000 --> 00:32:52.520 within a few points of Acton. 1468 00:32:53.310 --> 00:32:55.930 We haven't seen much polling that would, 1469 00:32:56.109 --> 00:32:56.550 uh, 1470 00:32:57.030 --> 00:33:00.709 necessarily describe this as a blowout now because of this ad, 1471 00:33:01.069 --> 00:33:01.500 though 1472 00:33:01.670 --> 00:33:02.619 perhaps there's been movement. 1473 00:33:02.670 --> 00:33:02.810 I mean, 1474 00:33:02.869 --> 00:33:04.239 if you squint in the polling average, 1475 00:33:04.310 --> 00:33:05.300 I think you can see it a little bit. 1476 00:33:05.949 --> 00:33:06.130 Uh, 1477 00:33:06.270 --> 00:33:06.550 right now, 1478 00:33:06.630 --> 00:33:07.750 if you see in the middle there, 1479 00:33:07.829 --> 00:33:07.859 uh, 1480 00:33:07.939 --> 00:33:08.670 this is a Calshi, 1481 00:33:08.829 --> 00:33:09.150 um, 1482 00:33:09.189 --> 00:33:09.650 graphic, 1483 00:33:10.030 --> 00:33:13.760 but in the middle there you see D + 3.2 margin forecast. 1484 00:33:13.910 --> 00:33:14.209 So, 1485 00:33:14.469 --> 00:33:14.670 again, 1486 00:33:14.790 --> 00:33:14.979 what, 1487 00:33:15.089 --> 00:33:17.569 what is being forecasted is a 3 point race. 1488 00:33:17.949 --> 00:33:19.810 And it is an 80/20 situation. 1489 00:33:20.390 --> 00:33:20.790 You wonder, 1490 00:33:20.869 --> 00:33:21.489 is there 1491 00:33:21.869 --> 00:33:23.589 opportunity there on the Ramaswamy side? 1492 00:33:23.630 --> 00:33:24.310 At some point, 1493 00:33:24.349 --> 00:33:26.270 this becomes cheap enough that I'm buying shares in it. 1494 00:33:26.390 --> 00:33:27.410 I don't know what it is. 1495 00:33:28.040 --> 00:33:28.390 Uh, 1496 00:33:28.479 --> 00:33:28.910 but it's, 1497 00:33:28.959 --> 00:33:29.709 it's close. 1498 00:33:30.040 --> 00:33:30.359 We're, 1499 00:33:30.400 --> 00:33:31.109 we're almost there. 1500 00:33:31.280 --> 00:33:31.640 And honestly, 1501 00:33:31.680 --> 00:33:33.599 I kind of thought Ramaswami would win this race, 1502 00:33:33.619 --> 00:33:33.750 uh, 1503 00:33:33.800 --> 00:33:34.979 if you go back 6 months. 1504 00:33:35.479 --> 00:33:35.760 Um, 1505 00:33:35.880 --> 00:33:36.709 Amy Acton is the, 1506 00:33:36.760 --> 00:33:36.910 uh, 1507 00:33:37.000 --> 00:33:37.630 the COVID, 1508 00:33:37.640 --> 00:33:38.219 uh, 1509 00:33:38.920 --> 00:33:39.380 chief 1510 00:33:39.719 --> 00:33:40.540 for Ohio. 1511 00:33:40.640 --> 00:33:43.800 Ohio kind of famously known as the one red state that was really, 1512 00:33:43.880 --> 00:33:45.079 really restrictive 1513 00:33:45.359 --> 00:33:46.430 when it came to, 1514 00:33:46.439 --> 00:33:46.869 um, 1515 00:33:47.119 --> 00:33:47.939 these particular, 1516 00:33:48.040 --> 00:33:48.739 uh, 1517 00:33:48.839 --> 00:33:49.770 restrictions for COVID. 1518 00:33:49.839 --> 00:33:50.469 So interesting, 1519 00:33:50.560 --> 00:33:50.859 but 1520 00:33:51.359 --> 00:33:52.390 I also wanna kind of just, 1521 00:33:52.599 --> 00:33:53.800 maybe this is a little bit of a sidebar. 1522 00:33:55.750 --> 00:33:57.040 It sure seems 1523 00:33:57.400 --> 00:33:58.660 like there's a lot, 1524 00:33:59.040 --> 00:33:59.400 uh, 1525 00:33:59.520 --> 00:34:03.699 there's a much higher amounts of consternation against Vivek Ramaswamy 1526 00:34:03.920 --> 00:34:06.890 than there was in the race in South Carolina. 1527 00:34:07.750 --> 00:34:08.540 Where we saw 1528 00:34:09.239 --> 00:34:09.438 a, 1529 00:34:09.500 --> 00:34:10.938 an expose 1530 00:34:11.199 --> 00:34:11.958 of Lindsay, 1531 00:34:12.080 --> 00:34:13.719 not Darlene Graham Nordone, 1532 00:34:13.800 --> 00:34:14.360 the candidate, 1533 00:34:14.438 --> 00:34:15.469 but Lindsey Graham, 1534 00:34:15.679 --> 00:34:16.899 the dead senator, 1535 00:34:17.120 --> 00:34:17.350 uh, 1536 00:34:17.399 --> 00:34:20.449 who passed away and is the brother of Lindsey Graham, 1537 00:34:20.918 --> 00:34:21.780 because of some 1538 00:34:22.639 --> 00:34:24.719 alleged sexual habits he had. 1539 00:34:24.879 --> 00:34:26.208 A big expose 1540 00:34:26.399 --> 00:34:27.978 put out there by left-wing groups 1541 00:34:28.199 --> 00:34:31.239 to say that Lindsey Graham was hooking up with male prostitutes. 1542 00:34:31.668 --> 00:34:31.800 Uh, 1543 00:34:31.870 --> 00:34:35.280 and these male prostitutes are just presented in the most glowing of light, 1544 00:34:35.438 --> 00:34:35.600 uh, 1545 00:34:35.719 --> 00:34:36.750 which I'm sure they're the most, 1546 00:34:36.840 --> 00:34:38.080 the greatest people in the world, 1547 00:34:38.159 --> 00:34:39.020 no

doubt about it. 1548 00:34:39.360 --> 00:34:39.889 Um, 1549 00:34:40.360 --> 00:34:40.639 this is, 1550 00:34:40.708 --> 00:34:41.070 and this is, 1551 00:34:41.080 --> 00:34:41.708 of course, 1552 00:34:41.719 --> 00:34:42.418 covered by, 1553 00:34:42.918 --> 00:34:43.080 you know, 1554 00:34:43.199 --> 00:34:44.560 this getting lots of attention. 1555 00:34:44.679 --> 00:34:44.790 Uh, 1556 00:34:44.830 --> 00:34:48.360 the video by left-wing group claims Lindsey Graham paid men for sex. 1557 00:34:48.590 --> 00:34:51.199 Progressive activists released a video of three men 1558 00:34:51.449 --> 00:34:54.179 making the allegations about the South Carolina Republican 1559 00:34:54.520 --> 00:34:54.639 who, 1560 00:34:54.688 --> 00:34:54.918 you know, 1561 00:34:55.000 --> 00:34:55.780 is dead. 1562 00:34:56.570 --> 00:34:58.129 And has been since July. 1563 00:34:58.790 --> 00:34:59.770 Um, 1564 00:35:00.379 --> 00:35:01.830 Darlene Graham won't, 1565 00:35:01.909 --> 00:35:02.139 uh, 1566 00:35:02.270 --> 00:35:04.449 answer questions about these claims. 1567 00:35:06.570 --> 00:35:07.149 Just 1568 00:35:07.409 --> 00:35:08.110 answer me that question, 1569 00:35:08.250 --> 00:35:09.050 why would she? 1570 00:35:09.399 --> 00:35:09.469 I, 1571 00:35:09.530 --> 00:35:09.689 I, 1572 00:35:09.729 --> 00:35:10.469 frankly, 1573 00:35:10.929 --> 00:35:12.310 why on earth would 1574 00:35:12.570 --> 00:35:13.530 the sister, 1575 00:35:13.810 --> 00:35:15.270 a grieving sister 1576 00:35:16.010 --> 00:35:16.689 of a guy, 1577 00:35:16.879 --> 00:35:17.429 answer 1578 00:35:18.050 --> 00:35:21.250 questions about whether he was hooking up with male prostitutes. 1579 00:35:22.199 --> 00:35:22.889 Of course he's, 1580 00:35:22.969 --> 00:35:24.649 she's not answering questions about that. 1581 00:35:24.929 --> 00:35:25.649 She's the candidate, 1582 00:35:25.729 --> 00:35:26.489 he's not. 1583 00:35:28.929 --> 00:35:31.550 President Trump holding a rally in South Carolina, 1584 00:35:31.969 --> 00:35:32.439 um, 1585 00:35:32.689 --> 00:35:33.379 to try to 1586 00:35:33.850 --> 00:35:34.719 close the voting gap. 1587 00:35:34.770 --> 00:35:35.189 I will say, 1588 00:35:35.290 --> 00:35:35.409 uh, 1589 00:35:35.489 --> 00:35:35.610 you know, 1590 00:35:35.689 --> 00:35:37.239 this is another thing that a lot is a big rumor. 1591 00:35:37.330 --> 00:35:40.010 One of the reasons these markets are moving like they are 1592 00:35:40.290 --> 00:35:42.979 is Democratic early vote numbers look very good 1593 00:35:43.169 --> 00:35:44.010 in many places, 1594 00:35:44.120 --> 00:35:44.600 not everywhere, 1595 00:35:44.610 --> 00:35:45.669 but in many places. 1596 00:35:45.899 --> 00:35:46.330 Um, 1597 00:35:46.610 --> 00:35:46.850 uh, 1598 00:35:46.969 --> 00:35:47.770 I'm not a big, 1599 00:35:47.850 --> 00:35:48.429 I don't, 1600 00:35:48.810 --> 00:35:52.449 I don't dive too deeply into the early voting stuff because it's very, 1601 00:35:52.560 --> 00:35:53.409

very hard to read. 1602 00:35:53.729 --> 00:35:54.010 Um, 1603 00:35:54.129 --> 00:35:54.479 so, 1604 00:35:54.610 --> 00:35:54.689 I, 1605 00:35:54.770 --> 00:35:56.729 I'll show you some tools that maybe can help with that. 1606 00:35:56.800 --> 00:35:58.129 I know Patrick Ruffinni started one, 1607 00:35:58.169 --> 00:35:59.469 which I thought was pretty helpful, 1608 00:35:59.889 --> 00:36:01.469 but I just don't know how much you get out of it, 1609 00:36:01.729 --> 00:36:01.929 um, 1610 00:36:02.090 --> 00:36:02.889 because you just don't know. 1611 00:36:03.000 --> 00:36:04.040 You don't know, 1612 00:36:04.370 --> 00:36:04.479 uh, 1613 00:36:04.500 --> 00:36:04.580 uh, 1614 00:36:04.659 --> 00:36:05.850 it can measure passion. 1615 00:36:06.610 --> 00:36:06.810 Uh, 1616 00:36:06.929 --> 00:36:07.629 it can measure, 1617 00:36:08.129 --> 00:36:08.290 you know, 1618 00:36:08.489 --> 00:36:08.969 certain things, 1619 00:36:09.050 --> 00:36:09.810 but you just don't know. 1620 00:36:09.860 --> 00:36:10.000 Like, 1621 00:36:10.090 --> 00:36:10.209 you know, 1622 00:36:10.280 --> 00:36:11.229 it's one of those things 1623 00:36:11.489 --> 00:36:11.850 that when, 1624 00:36:11.929 --> 00:36:12.129 you know, 1625 00:36:12.209 --> 00:36:12.449 if you, 1626 00:36:12.530 --> 00:36:12.889 if you say, 1627 00:36:12.989 --> 00:36:13.320 hey, 1628 00:36:13.610 --> 00:36:14.209 we're gonna knock, 1629 00:36:14.250 --> 00:36:14.530 uh, 1630 00:36:14.610 --> 00:36:16.250 $10,000 off our cars, 1631 00:36:16.520 --> 00:36:16.610 uh, 1632 00:36:16.679 --> 00:36:18.370 for the next 5 days and you get a bunch of sales, 1633 00:36:18.489 --> 00:36:21.550 how many of those sales were people that were gonna buy anyway for $10,000 more 1634 00:36:21.850 --> 00:36:22.570 two weeks from now? 1635 00:36:22.770 --> 00:36:25.610 And they moved their purchase up because you gave them this big discount. 1636 00:36:25.679 --> 00:36:26.209 You just don't know. 1637 00:36:26.270 --> 00:36:28.479 And when people get excited and they get out there and they vote early, 1638 00:36:28.719 --> 00:36:30.770 that might mean that they're very excited to vote, 1639 00:36:30.929 --> 00:36:31.590 but their vote, 1640 00:36:31.969 --> 00:36:32.800 at least at this point, 1641 00:36:33.050 --> 00:36:34.149 still only counts once. 1642 00:36:35.429 --> 00:36:37.239 This is what the South Carolina race looks like, 1643 00:36:37.310 --> 00:36:38.139 and you can see. 1644 00:36:38.919 --> 00:36:39.159 You know, 1645 00:36:39.439 --> 00:36:41.590 without the negative media attention on, 1646 00:36:41.639 --> 00:36:41.929 on, 1647 00:36:41.939 --> 00:36:42.310 uh, 1648 00:36:42.320 --> 00:36:43.689 someone like Ramaswamy for his 1649 00:36:43.919 --> 00:36:44.979 controversial ad, 1650 00:36:45.229 --> 00:36:46.399 Annie Andrews is just, 1651 00:36:46.479 --> 00:36:46.600 you know, 1652 00:36:46.719 --> 00:36:47.699 kind of cruising along 1653 00:36:48.000 --> 00:36:50.379 and now increasing to

a 24% chance. 1654 00:36:51.030 --> 00:36:51.229 Um, 1655 00:36:51.360 --> 00:36:51.879 Darlene Graham, 1656 00:36:51.919 --> 00:36:52.570 I have backed out. 1657 00:36:52.739 --> 00:36:52.750 I, 1658 00:36:52.800 --> 00:36:54.239 I had some Darlene Graham early. 1659 00:36:54.320 --> 00:36:56.399 I took a little bit of a loss on it because I just, 1660 00:36:56.520 --> 00:36:56.639 you know, 1661 00:36:56.719 --> 00:36:58.330 I don't think she's the greatest candidate in the world, 1662 00:36:58.479 --> 00:36:59.739 having nothing to do with whether her 1663 00:37:00.439 --> 00:37:02.120 dead brother slept with dudes. 1664 00:37:02.399 --> 00:37:02.510 Uh, 1665 00:37:02.570 --> 00:37:02.790 but like, 1666 00:37:02.840 --> 00:37:02.959 you know, 1667 00:37:03.030 --> 00:37:03.239 I just, 1668 00:37:03.320 --> 00:37:05.199 I don't think she's a great candidate and I do think there's 1669 00:37:05.199 --> 00:37:07.760 a little bit of a worry on the fringes of a blue wave 1670 00:37:07.919 --> 00:37:09.260 that this race could be affected. 1671 00:37:09.600 --> 00:37:09.760 Um, 1672 00:37:09.840 --> 00:37:10.280 and I just like, 1673 00:37:10.350 --> 00:37:10.560 you know what, 1674 00:37:10.639 --> 00:37:11.719 I'll take a tiny loss now again, 1675 00:37:11.840 --> 00:37:11.850 uh, 1676 00:37:11.959 --> 00:37:11.989 what, 1677 00:37:12.120 --> 00:37:12.610 what's our. 1678 00:37:13.800 --> 00:37:16.020 17th Amendment to the predictable Constitution is 1679 00:37:16.159 --> 00:37:17.330 a smaller loss 1680 00:37:17.479 --> 00:37:18.080 is a win. 1681 00:37:18.370 --> 00:37:19.469 So I might not lose that race. 1682 00:37:19.520 --> 00:37:21.840 I think likely she'll probably still win 1683 00:37:22.070 --> 00:37:22.919 in South Carolina, 1684 00:37:23.000 --> 00:37:23.239 but 1685 00:37:23.479 --> 00:37:23.899 that's the thing, 1686 00:37:23.959 --> 00:37:25.560 when you don't have this negative attention, 1687 00:37:25.639 --> 00:37:26.000 like it's, 1688 00:37:26.070 --> 00:37:27.040 it's not like Amy Adams, 1689 00:37:27.120 --> 00:37:27.459 uh, 1690 00:37:27.560 --> 00:37:28.159 Amy Adams, 1691 00:37:28.239 --> 00:37:29.139 I don't know if she's running, 1692 00:37:29.439 --> 00:37:29.679 um, 1693 00:37:29.800 --> 00:37:30.159 Annie, 1694 00:37:30.280 --> 00:37:30.550 what is it? 1695 00:37:30.560 --> 00:37:31.100 Annie, 1696 00:37:31.610 --> 00:37:32.280 Annie Andrews, 1697 00:37:32.350 --> 00:37:33.379 Annie Williams, 1698 00:37:33.750 --> 00:37:34.040 um, 1699 00:37:34.159 --> 00:37:34.550 what's her name? 1700 00:37:34.800 --> 00:37:35.810 Annie Andrews. 1701 00:37:36.040 --> 00:37:37.209 I have no idea what her name is. 1702 00:37:37.350 --> 00:37:39.520 I got have her confused with 9 different actresses. 1703 00:37:39.949 --> 00:37:40.320 Um, 1704 00:37:40.429 --> 00:37:40.629 uh, 1705 00:37:40.830 --> 00:37:41.370 she 1706 00:37:41.590 --> 00:37:42.189 is 1707 00:37:42.389 --> 00:37:43.370 in this race and, 1708 00:37:43.379 --> 00:37:43.540 and, 1709 00:37:43.610 --> 00:37:45.030 and is not dealing with the negatives. 1710 00:37:45.110 --> 00:37:45.239 Now, 1711 00:37:45.429 --> 00:37:47.419 there is a distinction here that I wanna make sure I point out. 1712 00:37:47.770 --> 00:37:49.129 It was a Ramaswamy 1713 00:37:49.310 --> 00:37:49.909 ad. 1714 00:37:50.350 --> 00:37:53.489 Though the controversy started and it was being covered heavily 1715 00:37:53.989 --> 00:37:55.870 before anyone knew it was a Ramaswamy ad. 1716 00:37:55.989 --> 00:37:56.060 Uh, 1717 00:37:56.139 --> 00:37:57.909 they had to confirm that like a week later. 1718 00:37:58.189 --> 00:37:59.780 So I don't know if that actually counts or not, 1719 00:37:59.830 --> 00:38:00.020 but, 1720 00:38:00.310 --> 00:38:00.429 uh, 1721 00:38:00.550 --> 00:38:01.780 Andrew's not getting the negative attention. 1722 00:38:01.830 --> 00:38:02.939 I will just say that there's just, 1723 00:38:02.989 --> 00:38:04.850 you'd think there'd be an equal, 1724 00:38:05.189 --> 00:38:05.300 uh, 1725 00:38:05.350 --> 00:38:09.310 at least an equal amount of outrage versus at these two approaches. 1726 00:38:09.739 --> 00:38:10.320 At the very least, 1727 00:38:10.340 --> 00:38:11.300 you'd think it would be an equal amount, 1728 00:38:11.310 --> 00:38:12.540 and of course it's not at all. 1729 00:38:12.669 --> 00:38:13.899 And that tells you something very, 1730 00:38:13.979 --> 00:38:14.560 very true 1731 00:38:15.020 --> 00:38:15.679 about the media 1732 00:38:15.860 --> 00:38:16.530 to this moment, 1733 00:38:16.620 --> 00:38:18.300 it will continue probably to the end of time. 1734 00:38:18.409 --> 00:38:18.540 OK, 1735 00:38:18.659 --> 00:38:19.199 gotta take a break. 1736 00:38:19.379 --> 00:38:19.820 Back in a second. 1737 00:38:34.409 --> 00:38:39.570 So the NBA is partnering with Calci and Poly Market amid regulation fights as 1738 00:38:39.570 --> 00:38:42.750 ESPN and there's been a lot of these partnerships that have started up, 1739 00:38:43.000 --> 00:38:43.199 uh, 1740 00:38:43.330 --> 00:38:43.840 and, 1741 00:38:43.889 --> 00:38:44.169 uh, 1742 00:38:44.250 --> 00:38:44.399 you know, 1743 00:38:44.489 --> 00:38:44.850 it like, 1744 00:38:44.909 --> 00:38:45.310 it's 1745 00:38:46.010 --> 00:38:46.250 obviously, 1746 00:38:46.290 --> 00:38:46.929 I think there's a, 1747 00:38:47.370 --> 00:38:48.409 an obvious crossover. 1748 00:38:48.929 --> 00:38:51.149 Sports is one of those things that people are comfortable 1749 00:38:51.929 --> 00:38:52.850 thinking about in this way, 1750 00:38:53.250 --> 00:38:55.429 taking their knowledge and turning it into 1751 00:38:55.729 --> 00:38:57.110 positions they might gain, 1752 00:38:57.129 --> 00:38:57.520 uh, 1753 00:38:57.530 --> 00:38:58.129 money on. 1754 00:38:58.439 --> 00:38:58.649 Um, 1755 00:38:58.689 --> 00:38:59.899 that's been happening obviously for a while, 1756 00:38:59.969 --> 00:39:00.199 I think, 1757 00:39:00.250 --> 00:39:00.530 you know, 1758

00:39:00.649 --> 00:39:00.850 my, 1759 00:39:00.929 --> 00:39:01.189 my 1760 00:39:01.370 --> 00:39:03.129 personal opinion is that a prediction market gives you a much 1761 00:39:03.129 --> 00:39:05.139 better experience than some of the other options in that world, 1762 00:39:05.209 --> 00:39:05.439 but, 1763 00:39:05.770 --> 00:39:05.889 uh, 1764 00:39:06.050 --> 00:39:06.489 that being said, 1765 00:39:06.580 --> 00:39:06.810 it's, 1766 00:39:06.919 --> 00:39:08.389 it's one of those situations where, 1767 00:39:08.610 --> 00:39:08.810 um, 1768 00:39:08.889 --> 00:39:09.709 it's a growing, 1769 00:39:09.729 --> 00:39:09.959 uh, 1770 00:39:09.969 --> 00:39:10.090 thing, 1771 00:39:10.129 --> 00:39:11.070 and a lot of people 1772 00:39:11.209 --> 00:39:14.570 who are already familiar with that type of monetary risk 1773 00:39:14.850 --> 00:39:16.489 are able to kind of jump into these markets a 1774 00:39:16.489 --> 00:39:18.580 lot quicker than the average person who's never really, 1775 00:39:18.590 --> 00:39:18.600 uh, 1776 00:39:18.610 --> 00:39:19.780 dabbled in that way. 1777 00:39:20.209 --> 00:39:20.780 Um, 1778 00:39:20.989 --> 00:39:21.270 of course, 1779 00:39:21.389 --> 00:39:22.189 there's a legal battle. 1780 00:39:22.310 --> 00:39:23.010 Uh, 1781 00:39:23.189 --> 00:39:24.610 there are a lot of your, 1782 00:39:25.229 --> 00:39:25.429 your, 1783 00:39:25.489 --> 00:39:26.209 your nanny 1784 00:39:26.389 --> 00:39:27.340 is out is out there, 1785 00:39:27.350 --> 00:39:27.469 and, 1786 00:39:27.580 --> 00:39:28.969 and their nanny always wants to make sure 1787 00:39:28.969 --> 00:39:30.820 you're doing what they think is responsible. 1788 00:39:30.909 --> 00:39:31.719 That's important. 1789 00:39:32.030 --> 00:39:33.780 Government always knows best. 1790 00:39:33.989 --> 00:39:37.290 They always know what you should do with your money better than you, 1791 00:39:37.389 --> 00:39:39.020 and I can't believe you're still questioning that. 1792 00:39:39.070 --> 00:39:40.389 I'm very upset at you 1793 00:39:40.709 --> 00:39:42.520 for even thinking that you, 1794 00:39:42.830 --> 00:39:44.810 you would know what to do with your money. 1795 00:39:45.560 --> 00:39:47.760 That's disgusting for you to even believe that. 1796 00:39:48.530 --> 00:39:49.050 The truth is, 1797 00:39:49.129 --> 00:39:49.570 of course, 1798 00:39:49.689 --> 00:39:51.389 the people in Washington know best, 1799 00:39:51.610 --> 00:39:53.360 and the people in all of your different states. 1800 00:39:53.489 --> 00:39:53.719 Um, 1801 00:39:54.360 --> 00:39:55.429 Calci could be headed for a, 1802 00:39:55.449 --> 00:39:55.800 uh, 1803 00:39:55.810 --> 00:39:57.239 Supreme Court showdown, 1804 00:39:57.610 --> 00:39:57.719 uh, 1805 00:39:57.810 --> 00:39:59.290 says the CEO of Calci, 1806 00:39:59.330 --> 00:40:00.159 but interesting, 1807 00:40:00.169 --> 00:40:00.590 um, 1808 00:40:00.600 --> 00:40:03.149 nugget in this particular report is from Reuters. 1809 00:40:04.770 --> 00:40:05.570 Uh, 1810 00:40:05.659 --> 00:40:06.030 this, 1811 00:40:06.449 --> 00:40:07.120 this is, 1812 00:40:07.250 --> 00:40:08.209 because one of the things people say is like, 1813 00:40:08.250 --> 00:40:08.370 oh, 1814 00:40:08.439 --> 00:40:08.889 it's all, 1815 00:40:08.969 --> 00:40:09.090 you know, 1816 00:40:09.159 --> 00:40:09.850 it's all sports, 1817 00:40:09.889 --> 00:40:10.350 it's all, 1818 00:40:10.449 --> 00:40:11.320 uh, 1819 00:40:11.530 --> 00:40:13.870 sports betting and all these other things. 1820 00:40:14.860 --> 00:40:16.100 We've gone through that a million times, 1821 00:40:16.179 --> 00:40:16.600 but, 1822 00:40:17.060 --> 00:40:17.179 you know, 1823 00:40:17.290 --> 00:40:18.760 it has been a high percentage 1824 00:40:18.939 --> 00:40:19.949 of what, 1825 00:40:20.179 --> 00:40:20.409 uh, 1826 00:40:20.419 --> 00:40:21.810 these prediction markets are doing, 1827 00:40:21.860 --> 00:40:23.580 as for the reasons I just stated, 1828 00:40:23.899 --> 00:40:24.100 and, 1829 00:40:24.179 --> 00:40:25.280 and others as well, 1830 00:40:25.500 --> 00:40:25.739 um, 1831 00:40:25.820 --> 00:40:26.620 which we can talk about, 1832 00:40:26.699 --> 00:40:27.600 but this is the new, 1833 00:40:27.689 --> 00:40:28.320 uh, 1834 00:40:28.530 --> 00:40:28.810 rate, 1835 00:40:28.830 --> 00:40:29.129 and it's, 1836 00:40:29.149 --> 00:40:30.080 it's quite a different, 1837 00:40:30.100 --> 00:40:30.530 uh, 1838 00:40:30.540 --> 00:40:30.860 story. 1839 00:40:31.120 --> 00:40:34.739 Sports now generate about 65% of Calshi's revenue. 1840 00:40:35.080 --> 00:40:37.570 That is down from approximately 95% 1841 00:40:37.760 --> 00:40:38.860 9 months ago. 1842 00:40:39.239 --> 00:40:39.429 So, 1843 00:40:39.520 --> 00:40:40.159 in just 9 months, 1844 00:40:40.199 --> 00:40:42.040 it's gone from 95% to 65%. 1845 00:40:42.080 --> 00:40:43.040 The reason for that is, 1846 00:40:43.120 --> 00:40:43.239 you know, 1847 00:40:43.350 --> 00:40:44.389 it's a couple of different things. 1848 00:40:44.639 --> 00:40:45.879 People getting more familiar with them, 1849 00:40:46.040 --> 00:40:49.600 more money coming in from institutions and other people who are interested in this. 1850 00:40:50.080 --> 00:40:50.290 Um, 1851 00:40:50.409 --> 00:40:52.040 and interested in different topics. 1852 00:40:52.370 --> 00:40:53.919 The other thing too is obviously the elections, 1853 00:40:54.050 --> 00:40:54.560 and this is, 1854 00:40:54.570 --> 00:40:54.810 remember, 1855 00:40:54.879 --> 00:40:56.070 a pretty boring 1856 00:40:56.370 --> 00:40:57.350 midterm election. 1857 00:40:57.570 --> 00:40:58.209 When I say boring, 1858 00:40:58.290 --> 00:40:58.610 I mean like, 1859 00:40:58.649 --> 00:40:58.889 you know, 1860 00:40:59.010 --> 00:41:00.290 there's a heavy favorite here. 1861 00:41:00.340 --> 00:41:02.280 This does not seem like a 50/50 thing, 1862 00:41:02.489 --> 00:41:02.929 you know, 1863 00:41:03.169 --> 00:41:03.949 it's not

like the, 1864 00:41:04.090 --> 00:41:05.629 the normal exciting election. 1865 00:41:05.810 --> 00:41:08.050 Can you imagine what 2028 is going to look like? 1866 00:41:08.370 --> 00:41:08.850 If it's 6, 1867 00:41:08.929 --> 00:41:10.050 only 65% now, 1868 00:41:10.209 --> 00:41:10.550 I imagine, 1869 00:41:10.969 --> 00:41:11.239 uh, 1870 00:41:11.250 --> 00:41:11.939 what it's going to be. 1871 00:41:12.820 --> 00:41:13.419 As you go forward, 1872 00:41:13.479 --> 00:41:15.850 it's probably gonna be even lower than 65% that sports. 1873 00:41:16.459 --> 00:41:16.860 And of course, 1874 00:41:16.959 --> 00:41:17.139 you know, 1875 00:41:17.340 --> 00:41:18.320 part of the reason for this is 1876 00:41:18.540 --> 00:41:18.919 they don't, 1877 00:41:19.020 --> 00:41:20.280 they don't put 10 1878 00:41:20.919 --> 00:41:23.860 elections on TV every single night all year long, 1879 00:41:23.979 --> 00:41:24.290 right? 1880 00:41:24.620 --> 00:41:24.959 The 1881 00:41:25.300 --> 00:41:26.419 sports is unique. 1882 00:41:26.540 --> 00:41:29.169 There's so many events associated with sports, 1883 00:41:29.479 --> 00:41:29.590 right? 1884 00:41:29.689 --> 00:41:31.379 There's 82 games in an NBA schedule. 1885 00:41:31.459 --> 00:41:31.620 There, 1886 00:41:31.909 --> 00:41:32.379 there are, 1887 00:41:32.459 --> 00:41:32.739 you know, 1888 00:41:32.820 --> 00:41:33.399 obviously, 1889 00:41:33.500 --> 00:41:36.235 every weekend is loaded with Football and college football. 1890 00:41:36.594 --> 00:41:36.985 You also, 1891 00:41:37.034 --> 00:41:37.314 of course, 1892 00:41:37.395 --> 00:41:38.235 have Major League Baseball, 1893 00:41:38.274 --> 00:41:39.435 162 games, 1894 00:41:39.475 --> 00:41:40.864 which they should keep it 162, 1895 00:41:40.915 --> 00:41:41.195 by the way. 1896 00:41:41.334 --> 00:41:42.304 Stop screwing with the numbers. 1897 00:41:43.104 --> 00:41:43.114 Well, 1898 00:41:43.195 --> 00:41:44.185 they need more days off. 1899 00:41:44.314 --> 00:41:44.834 Stop it. 1900 00:41:45.175 --> 00:41:45.524 Stop. 1901 00:41:45.705 --> 00:41:46.245 160. 1902 00:41:46.354 --> 00:41:47.485 Keep it consistent. 1903 00:41:47.834 --> 00:41:48.104 Anyway, 1904 00:41:48.354 --> 00:41:48.844 point is, 1905 00:41:48.905 --> 00:41:50.215 a lot more opportunities to go in, 1906 00:41:50.225 --> 00:41:50.314 uh, 1907 00:41:50.425 --> 00:41:50.584 on, 1908 00:41:50.635 --> 00:41:52.594 in the sporting world than there are in the election world, 1909 00:41:52.645 --> 00:41:53.354 but these elections. 1910 00:41:53.860 --> 00:41:54.199 When, 1911 00:41:54.260 --> 00:41:55.340 as they are taking hold, 1912 00:41:55.459 --> 00:41:57.409 can you imagine what 2028 is gonna be like? 1913 00:41:57.739 --> 00:42:00.530 Imagine a presidential race with these things going on 1914 00:42:00.659 --> 00:42:01.239 in a way that 1915 00:42:01.370 --> 00:42:03.719 people are really engaged with it and really trying 1916 00:42:04.080 --> 00:42:04.250 to, 1917 00:42:04.260 --> 00:42:04.810 uh, 1918 00:42:04.820 --> 00:42:06.080 understand these elections more 1919 00:42:06.219 --> 00:42:07.340 and potentially profit as well. 1920 00:42:07.419 --> 00:42:08.500 I hope you'll be here with me. 1921 00:42:08.580 --> 00:42:08.679 Uh, 1922 00:42:08.780 --> 00:42:09.800 we'll be profiting here. 1923 00:42:09.979 --> 00:42:10.090 Uh, 1924 00:42:10.179 --> 00:42:10.540 I hope, 1925 00:42:10.629 --> 00:42:10.770 uh, 1926 00:42:10.860 --> 00:42:11.360 next, 1927 00:42:11.370 --> 00:42:11.379 uh, 1928 00:42:11.389 --> 00:42:11.840 Tuesday, 1929 00:42:11.979 --> 00:42:13.120 big election live stream, 1930 00:42:13.300 --> 00:42:14.159 part of our coverage, 1931 00:42:14.370 --> 00:42:14.600 uh, 1932 00:42:14.620 --> 00:42:16.820 on YouTube.com/atpredictableshow 1933 00:42:17.100 --> 00:42:18.969 and predictableshow.com. 1934 00:42:31.479 --> 00:42:31.639 Well, 1935 00:42:31.719 --> 00:42:34.219 the Philadelphia Eagles fell to 2 and 5. 1936 00:42:35.689 --> 00:42:37.540 As their season continues to spiral downwards, 1937 00:42:37.580 --> 00:42:39.850 the home loss to the Dallas freaking Cowboys. 1938 00:42:39.929 --> 00:42:40.100 Yes, 1939 00:42:40.219 --> 00:42:41.879 this is the worst day of my year. 1940 00:42:42.300 --> 00:42:42.520 Um, 1941 00:42:42.610 --> 00:42:42.939 and, 1942 00:42:42.989 --> 00:42:43.489 uh, 1943 00:42:43.550 --> 00:42:44.020 I will say, 1944 00:42:44.139 --> 00:42:44.419 look, 1945 00:42:44.530 --> 00:42:45.120 uh, 1946 00:42:45.570 --> 00:42:46.760 doesn't always work out every year. 1947 00:42:47.100 --> 00:42:47.219 Uh, 1948 00:42:47.340 --> 00:42:47.889 Eagles have had, 1949 00:42:47.939 --> 00:42:48.520 I will say, 1950 00:42:48.780 --> 00:42:50.040 very fortunate, 1951 00:42:50.379 --> 00:42:50.580 uh, 1952 00:42:50.699 --> 00:42:52.159 injury luck over the years, 1953 00:42:52.419 --> 00:42:52.659 um, 1954 00:42:52.780 --> 00:42:52.929 uh, 1955 00:42:53.060 --> 00:42:54.419 over this past run in particular. 1956 00:42:54.689 --> 00:42:55.209 This year, 1957 00:42:55.340 --> 00:42:56.649 they're paying the price for that, 1958 00:42:56.659 --> 00:42:57.459 and every single, 1959 00:42:57.560 --> 00:43:00.100 I think they're on their 6th running back last night at one point, 1960 00:43:00.260 --> 00:43:01.919 their 6th string running back, 1961 00:43:02.189 --> 00:43:02.500 um. 1962 00:43:02.959 --> 00:43:03.439 That's not good. 1963 00:43:03.600 --> 00:43:04.919 Not to mention they're aren't playing well. 1964 00:43:05.040 --> 00:43:08.060 Their defense was pretty healthy and was absolutely terrible yesterday, 1965 00:43:08.159 --> 00:43:09.340 so no excuses here. 1966 00:43:09.669 --> 00:43:09.870 Um, 1967 00:43:10.000 --> 00:43:11.620 but there's no excuses for you either, 1968 00:43:11.639 --> 00:43:11.959 because every, 1969 00:43:12.040 --> 00:43:12.159 you know, 1970 00:43:12.199 --> 00:43:12.790 every once in a while, 1971 00:43:12.820 --> 00:43:13.860 I do ask you for

something. 1972 00:43:14.320 --> 00:43:14.550 I say, 1973 00:43:14.620 --> 00:43:14.719 hey, 1974 00:43:14.800 --> 00:43:14.959 you know, 1975 00:43:15.080 --> 00:43:15.479 do you mind, 1976 00:43:15.560 --> 00:43:17.199 if you got the extra currency out there, 1977 00:43:17.280 --> 00:43:17.360 you know, 1978 00:43:17.479 --> 00:43:18.120 you wanna come on, 1979 00:43:19.040 --> 00:43:19.350 become a, 1980 00:43:19.360 --> 00:43:19.520 a, 1981 00:43:19.600 --> 00:43:21.199 a predictableShow.com member. 1982 00:43:21.479 --> 00:43:23.820 It's a great value for you and you'll get great value out of it. 1983 00:43:24.239 --> 00:43:24.760 And you might say, 1984 00:43:24.830 --> 00:43:24.879 well, 1985 00:43:24.939 --> 00:43:25.949 I don't wanna spend any money on that, 1986 00:43:25.959 --> 00:43:26.760 and I understand that. 1987 00:43:26.909 --> 00:43:27.360 However, 1988 00:43:27.949 --> 00:43:28.229 You should, 1989 00:43:28.310 --> 00:43:28.989 you don't have to. 1990 00:43:29.199 --> 00:43:30.850 I gave you the free money 1991 00:43:31.030 --> 00:43:33.149 a long time ago when I told you 1992 00:43:33.340 --> 00:43:37.090 it was 100% guaranteed the Philadelphia Eagles were not gonna win 1993 00:43:37.669 --> 00:43:39.770 13 games this year. 1994 00:43:40.070 --> 00:43:41.530 It was completely insane. 1995 00:43:41.709 --> 00:43:43.689 You could have turned that into any amount of money, 1996 00:43:43.860 --> 00:43:44.030 uh, 1997 00:43:44.060 --> 00:43:44.909 that you wanted to, 1998 00:43:45.149 --> 00:43:45.379 and, 1999 00:43:45.389 --> 00:43:45.669 uh, 2000 00:43:45.750 --> 00:43:46.290 and I'm, 2001 00:43:46.389 --> 00:43:47.409 I'm doing that myself. 2002 00:43:47.790 --> 00:43:47.909 Uh, 2003 00:43:47.949 --> 00:43:48.729 I will say, 2004 00:43:48.780 --> 00:43:48.989 uh. 2005 00:43:49.054 --> 00:43:50.524 It is nice to get paid for your pain. 2006 00:43:50.574 --> 00:43:52.135 We like to hedge our life a little bit here. 2007 00:43:52.304 --> 00:43:52.655 So if you, 2008 00:43:52.774 --> 00:43:53.445 this is one of the reasons, 2009 00:43:53.814 --> 00:43:55.614 one of the ways I sincerely use prediction markets. 2010 00:43:55.854 --> 00:43:56.054 Look, 2011 00:43:56.215 --> 00:43:57.875 my days get worse when the Eagles lose, 2012 00:43:58.014 --> 00:43:58.485 and they suck. 2013 00:43:58.534 --> 00:43:59.495 This season's gonna suck, 2014 00:43:59.534 --> 00:44:00.754 and I gotta get all the way through it. 2015 00:44:01.014 --> 00:44:01.495 I'm, 2016 00:44:01.574 --> 00:44:01.844 I'm, 2017 00:44:01.895 --> 00:44:02.235 I'm, 2018 00:44:02.245 --> 00:44:03.094 I'm not happy about it, 2019 00:44:03.175 --> 00:44:03.504 but 2020 00:44:03.695 --> 00:44:05.875 I'm being paid for my pain routinely, 2021 00:44:06.094 --> 00:44:06.254 you know, 2022 00:44:06.935 --> 00:44:07.324 I have, 2023 00:44:07.415 --> 00:44:07.655 uh, 2024 00:44:07.814 --> 00:44:09.245 do we have the market on the how many wins? 2025 00:44:09.294 --> 00:44:10.235 What are they saying now? 2026 00:44:10.695 --> 00:44:11.054 Oh God. 2027 00:44:11.215 --> 00:44:13.774 The days after that big Tennessee win in the last seconds 2028 00:44:13.774 --> 00:44:15.715 when they were thinking it was gonna be 13 wins, 2029 00:44:16.495 --> 00:44:16.614 uh, 2030 00:44:16.695 --> 00:44:18.034 now they're saying it's 6. 2031 00:44:19.219 --> 00:44:19.760 6. 2032 00:44:19.959 --> 00:44:22.439 I have no positions on everything down to 9 wins. 2033 00:44:22.479 --> 00:44:24.060 I think that's as pessimistic as I got. 2034 00:44:24.479 --> 00:44:25.719 I wish I went lower than that. 2035 00:44:25.909 --> 00:44:25.989 Uh, 2036 00:44:26.040 --> 00:44:27.520 but the bottom line is you can hedge, 2037 00:44:27.600 --> 00:44:27.709 uh, 2038 00:44:27.830 --> 00:44:28.040 you know, 2039 00:44:28.120 --> 00:44:28.540 your own 2040 00:44:28.919 --> 00:44:29.379 pain. 2041 00:44:29.679 --> 00:44:30.850 And get paid for that pain, 2042 00:44:31.050 --> 00:44:31.189 uh, 2043 00:44:31.199 --> 00:44:32.080 with prediction Markets. 2044 00:44:32.169 --> 00:44:32.280 Uh, 2045 00:44:32.330 --> 00:44:34.929 it's a tool I really like using and I do all the time. 2046 00:44:35.060 --> 00:44:35.310 So, 2047 00:44:35.570 --> 00:44:35.689 anyway, 2048 00:44:35.800 --> 00:44:35.919 uh, 2049 00:44:35.969 --> 00:44:37.530 that's what we have for tonight's show. 2050 00:44:37.810 --> 00:44:37.879 Uh, 2051 00:44:37.929 --> 00:44:39.090 go to predictableShow.com. 2052 00:44:39.290 --> 00:44:41.550 Take the money you should have won on the Eagles and put it into this, 2053 00:44:41.570 --> 00:44:41.770 uh, 2054 00:44:41.850 --> 00:44:42.889 in the website membership. 2055 00:44:42.969 --> 00:44:43.169 You'll, 2056 00:44:43.239 --> 00:44:44.270 you'll get value out of it. 2057 00:44:44.479 --> 00:44:45.110 Many people, 2058 00:44:45.330 --> 00:44:45.439 uh, 2059 00:44:45.489 --> 00:44:45.770 on the, 2060 00:44:45.850 --> 00:44:46.129 that are, 2061 00:44:46.209 --> 00:44:46.399 uh, 2062 00:44:46.409 --> 00:44:47.850 subscribers are already saying they paid for their 2063 00:44:47.850 --> 00:44:49.600 entire year's subscription just based on it. 2064 00:44:49.850 --> 00:44:50.209 So, 2065 00:44:50.530 --> 00:44:50.870 please 2066 00:44:51.050 --> 00:44:52.429 jump on board PredictableShow.com. 2067 00:44:52.530 --> 00:44:53.010 We'll see you later.