Transcrição completa de Post-Election Hangover

being, that's who it would be. 00:02:04.799 --> 00:02:06.719 Without question, it's not even close. 00:02:07.439 --> 00:02:12.879 Uh the first two years of the second Trump presidency has been uh disaster. 00:02:13.039 --> 00:02:19.199 There's no other word that you could possibly objectively analyze what has occurred so far. 00:02:19.680 --> 00:02:30.319 And this was a full-throated repudiation of what he's done or really what he has not done, or what he's failed to do that he said he would do over the last two years. 00:02:30.400 --> 00:02:34.879 Uh, and I would say chief among them is just the cost of living and energy specifically. 00:02:35.280 --> 00:02:36.800 Let me tug on that thread a little bit. 00:02:36.960 --> 00:02:54.560 Um if if it's due to Trump and people's feelings about it, how much of it is I really hate what that guy's agenda is and what he's doing, you know, everything from immigration to obviously Iran and all that stuff, um, which kind of is like what I would think would be the sort of independence or democratic view, right? 00:02:54.719 --> 00:03:06.560 And how much of it would be the people who are on the right who voted for Trump in 2024, uh, maybe reliable Republicans, right-leaning independents, that kind of thing, who expected him to do things that didn't get done. 00:03:06.800 --> 00:03:07.759 Like, you know what I mean? 00:03:07.840 --> 00:03:09.039 Like how much of it is each? 00:03:09.280 --> 00:03:10.080 Yeah, I'm not sure. 00:03:10.159 --> 00:03:16.240 It's certainly a combination of the two, but I'm not sure if I could necessarily give uh maybe the former. 00:03:16.319 --> 00:03:28.719 I I think when we see at least, you know, main-related data, uh, when the turnout results, yeah, when the results are certified, I think you're gonna see that it was, you know, uh obviously very much more so in the favor of Democrats. 00:03:28.800 --> 00:03:31.120 So I'm not sure exactly where I would draw the line. 00:03:31.199 --> 00:03:37.120 It probably is a combination of the two, but um, I just for me, there's good reason. 00:03:37.280 --> 00:03:39.439 Obviously, you know, if you're a Democrat, you don't like the guy. 00:03:39.520 --> 00:03:45.439 It doesn't really matter if he gave you a million dollars, you're still gonna, you know, vote D all the way down the ballot. 00:03:45.840 --> 00:04:00.400 To me, I think especially when you like it's hard for me to analyze the mind of an independent voter, but where my brain goes to is like, this guy is such a showman, he's so in your face about what he's gonna do and who he is and how he's gonna govern. 00:04:00.479 --> 00:04:11.520 And like when you don't do that, and when you actually do the opposite of what you just told everybody two years ago you were gonna do, people are like, bro, yeah, what what is what is going on here? 00:04:11.759 --> 00:04:19.680 Or put it a different way, he's he's very, very good at getting himself in the center of everybody's mind. 00:04:19.839 -->

00:04:24.639 Like, you know, he's he's the guy who's in charge, he's the person who's directing stuff, etc. 00:04:24.959 --> 00:04:28.079 And when, you know, the circumstances are right, that's a very good thing. 00:04:28.160 --> 00:04:30.879 Because then, you know, like when he was running for president in 2024, right? 00:04:30.959 --> 00:04:40.399 You had, I think, people generally dissatisfied with Biden, and then all of a sudden there's this guy and he's the alternative, and he's just in the middle of everything, and he's on podcasts talking to Rogan and all this other stuff. 00:04:40.560 --> 00:04:50.160 But then when it's him in charge and he's doing stuff and things aren't going the way that a lot of people want them to, then all of a sudden you have nothing you have nothing but blame for the guy. 00:04:50.240 --> 00:04:50.399 Yeah. 00:04:50.560 --> 00:05:02.720 I mean, I I think a lot that's what struggle I struggle with a lot in Maine here is that there was just a resounding victory for the Maine Democratic Party that was unbelievably undeserved based on what's been happening in the state at state level policy. 00:05:02.800 --> 00:05:08.000 Like the things you're unhappy about here, certainly there's an element of Iran and Trump and all that stuff. 00:05:08.160 --> 00:05:08.879 No question. 00:05:09.120 --> 00:05:11.519 But you're really upset about your overall energy prices. 00:05:11.680 --> 00:05:17.920 You're upset about the way that schools have been kind of declining, you're upset about taxes, you're upset, you're upset about a lot of stuff. 00:05:18.160 --> 00:05:19.600 Donald Trump didn't enact energy. 00:05:20.000 --> 00:05:25.839 99% of that is the leaders in Augusta, and you just gave them a reward, which tells me that I'm mad at stuff. 00:05:25.920 --> 00:05:26.720 Who do I blame? 00:05:26.879 --> 00:05:27.360 That guy. 00:05:27.519 --> 00:05:27.680 Right. 00:05:27.839 --> 00:05:30.000 And that's really a consequence of his Yeah. 00:05:30.079 --> 00:05:31.759 And it it's it's unfortunate too. 00:05:32.399 --> 00:05:32.560 Right. 00:05:32.639 --> 00:05:35.360 It's unfortunate too because all you have to do is be normal. 00:05:35.680 --> 00:05:36.240 No kidding. 00:05:36.480 --> 00:05:39.199 The thing that you're running against is like purple hair. 00:05:39.439 --> 00:05:49.759 Your kids should, you know, no longer have breasts, let them have whatever they want when they're 12, uh, you know, hand out money, funny money to anybody in affordable housing. 00:05:49.920 --> 00:05:54.399 Oh, you're a solar developer here, take tax money uh and jack up people's rates. 00:05:54.480 --> 00:05:55.680 All you have to do is be normal. 00:05:55.759 --> 00:06:03.600 All you have to do is govern like you have six functioning brain cells and can construct sentences and not do the opposite of what you said you're gonna do. 00:06:03.920 --> 00:06:05.040 It's a very low bar. 00:06:05.120 --> 00:06:06.079 It's a very low bar. 00:06:06.160 --> 00:06:12.639 And that's why to me what happened is so bad because of what has transpired over the last two years. 00:06:12.800 --> 00:06:17.519 All you had to do, you could have done nothing instead of the something that you did. 00:06:17.600 --> 00:06:20.319 You could have just, you know, just chilled out and got on vacation. 00:06:20.720 --> 00:06:30.160 Made it look like you were trying, or or I mean, it's hard, it's hard to not do what you said you're gonna do because you know they had kind of a uh mandate from the standpoint of controlling the things that they needed to control. 00:06:30.560 --> 00:06:35.600 Well, sure, but like even things, even things like the big beautiful bill or whatever, like they barely came up in this campaign. 00:06:35.680 --> 00:06:42.959 Like, I mean, they know they were mentioned here and there, but they c people cared about ICE, they cared about Iran, gas prices, the economy, things like that. 00:06:43.120 --> 00:06:50.000 And if he had just like waltzed into office and did virtually nothing, I mean, gas prices would probably be like two dollars and sixty-five cents right now. 00:06:50.160 --> 00:06:55.360 And you know, maybe he would have lost a few seats or whatever, but it sure wouldn't have been forty, I think five is where we're at now. 00:06:55.439 --> 00:06:56.720 It's it's approaching fifty. 00:06:56.879 --> 00:07:00.639 Yeah, it's it's and losing Senate seats in Mississippi and stuff like that happens. 00:07:00.879 --> 00:07:15.759 Which which by the way, I'm sure when you look at those states, uh the Mississippi's, the Alabamas, the South Carolinas, I'm sure that there are people who were like brought into the Trump coalition, people who weren't really voters, registered as Republicans and were voting Republican for him when he was there. 00:07:16.399 --> 00:07:22.160 You know you don't elect Democrats in Mississippi without Republicans voting for him too. 00:07:22.240 --> 00:07:22.399 Right. 00:07:22.560 --> 00:07:36.959 And and that's that's like something that the party, more broadly speaking, needs to address before 2028, 2030, 2032, and and so on, because there are people who this guy, Trump, disaffected and voted for quote unquote the other team. 00:07:37.120 --> 00:07:37.360 Yeah. 00:07:37.519 --> 00:07:46.800 And when you're talking about a lot of those races, and I want to get uh Emily and Garrick in on this as well, when you're talking about those other races, I mean South Carolina falling, Iowa, Nebraska, Texas. 00:07:47.040 --> 00:07:53.360 I mean, you know, the funny thing I knew we were in trouble right out of the gate, like at seven o'clock, because of the Florida returns. 00:07:53.439 --> 00:08:05.759 Like when the Florida returns were coming in, obviously the senator there whose name is escaping me, uh, was able to win, and you had Byron Donald's who was able to win, but they won by pretty narrow uh margins. 00:08:05.839 --> 00:08:08.959 And I was like, oh God, if it's in Florida land,

DeSantis Land. 00:08:09.600 --> 00:08:11.120 Yeah, that's not good news, right? 00:08:11.439 --> 00:08:12.720 So you kind of knew immediately. 00:08:12.800 --> 00:08:18.720 But when those kinds of things fall, you have to just sort of like tip your cap and say that it's the environment. 00:08:18.879 --> 00:08:23.920 Like, I mean, that it is not normal that Nebraska would have gone blue. 00:08:24.079 --> 00:08:29.839 Like, that's that's not something that the politics and the basic fundamentals of that place should ever really do. 00:08:30.000 --> 00:08:35.120 But it did because of the feeling in America this year, which swept people away. 00:08:35.279 --> 00:08:38.000 Jason Savage and I were talking talking a little earlier this week. 00:08:38.240 --> 00:08:47.279 His analogy, which I think is great, is that uh, you know, there's like a hundred-foot seawall that we cre we created, but the storm surge was 120 feet. 00:08:47.360 --> 00:08:49.759 Like there's just that's how Susan Collins lost, right? 00:08:49.840 --> 00:08:51.039 And we'll get into Susan in a minute. 00:08:51.120 --> 00:08:55.120 But like she, if you've seen the maps and stuff, like she massively overperformed. 00:08:55.200 --> 00:08:57.440 She was an absolute gangster on the on the trail. 00:08:57.519 --> 00:09:04.879 She did everything anyone ever could do to win that race, and is about as popular as any Republican could be in a year like this. 00:09:05.120 --> 00:09:10.399 She actually improved Trump's numbers from 2024, and she's the only person in the entire country that did that. 00:09:10.720 --> 00:09:12.879 So, you know, how does that person still lose? 00:09:12.960 --> 00:09:14.320 Because it's a 120-foot wave. 00:09:14.399 --> 00:09:16.960 That's why it's it is actually a tsunami. 00:09:17.120 --> 00:09:17.759 So there you go. 00:09:18.240 --> 00:09:21.440 Emily, Garrick, do you have thoughts on what you experienced on Tuesday? 00:09:21.600 --> 00:09:24.000 What when did you not guys know it was over? 00:09:24.399 --> 00:09:25.600 When it was gonna be a bad night. 00:09:25.919 --> 00:09:26.399 The morning. 00:09:26.480 --> 00:09:27.120 I went right to bed. 00:09:27.279 --> 00:09:28.480 I didn't even check my phone. 00:09:28.559 --> 00:09:29.679 I licked when I woke up. 00:09:29.919 --> 00:09:32.240 Wow, that's a brave thing to to do. 00:09:32.559 --> 00:09:34.559 Well, yeah, and I flew back into Maine that night. 00:09:34.639 --> 00:09:37.120 So then I just went straight to bed too because I got in kind of late. 00:09:37.519 --> 00:09:38.960 But you had to have been checking your smartphone. 00:09:39.200 --> 00:09:43.679 Uh well, I was like, I'm just going to I'm just gonna hold off until tomorrow and just like let it be. 00:09:43.840 --> 00:09:52.320 So you I wanted to be completely divorced from election day and then just let myself be totally consumed the day after, which is what happened. 00:09:52.559 --> 00:10:00.960 And I I literally woke up to a text from my brother saying, Holy F, dude, I cannot believe Collins just lost. 00:10:01.360 --> 00:10:02.480 That was the first text that I saw. 00:10:02.559 --> 00:10:04.080 That was the first thing that I saw when I woke up. 00:10:04.240 --> 00:10:08.240 And and my aunt said something similar, like, oh my gosh, we're so screwed. 00:10:08.559 --> 00:10:11.039 So um, yeah, they're pretty concerned. 00:10:11.200 --> 00:10:19.039 And uh it's funny though, Jake talking about how Trump is essentially responsible for Susan Collins' demise, essentially. 00:10:19.120 --> 00:10:19.919 Uh that's everyone. 00:10:20.399 --> 00:10:21.840 Not just yeah, yeah. 00:10:22.000 --> 00:10:25.039 Yeah, but just to be like specific about Maine uh from Maine. 00:10:25.279 --> 00:10:26.639 Can I may I add one thing before you continue? 00:10:26.799 --> 00:10:39.519 Like the other thing that sort of is Trump's responsibility that has to be talked about, it just does, is not just like the vibes that he went out because of the because of the policies he's chosen and how he's done it, but it's also that he handpicked a lot of these people. 00:10:39.600 --> 00:10:43.840 Like Paxton was the candidate because he was flirting with him and then outright endorsed him. 00:10:44.000 --> 00:10:47.679 You know, I mean, Darlene Graham, I mean, I seriously, man. 00:10:47.840 --> 00:10:49.039 How many times do we have to do this? 00:10:49.200 --> 00:10:52.240 Like this happened with Herschel Walker in that whole, you know, cycle. 00:10:52.399 --> 00:10:53.840 I mean, there was like three or four. 00:10:53.919 --> 00:10:57.120 I mean, both Georgia seats are in the hands of Democrats right now. 00:10:57.200 --> 00:11:02.879 And while I admit that that is not exactly a beat red state anymore, it is not a blue state, shouldn't have two senators. 00:11:02.960 --> 00:11:07.679 And Osif shouldn't have just won by, by the way, nine or ten or whatever he won by down there. 00:11:07.840 --> 00:11:13.840 The only reason we did is because he picked moron candidates and and because he liked them and they shined him on and like it's all ego. 00:11:14.320 --> 00:11:15.039 A loyalty thing. 00:11:15.279 --> 00:11:17.919 Yeah, it's a loyalty thing, and it's ridiculous because they're terrible candidates. 00:11:18.159 --> 00:11:19.759 So just shooting yourself in the foot. 00:11:20.000 --> 00:11:23.840 And yeah, so this year an endorsement from Trump is essentially a smooch of death. 00:11:24.480 --> 00:11:28.559 It's a kiss of it's a kiss, it's a positive thing in your primary, but it's just sure. 00:11:28.639 --> 00:11:28.960 Yeah. 00:11:29.200 --> 00:11:31.039 But he and then he it just heard. 00:11:31.120 --> 00:11:32.720 But it's not to be radioactive. 00:11:32.879 --> 00:11:38.159 It's not because Trump like made those people radioactive, it's because he picked idiots. 00:11:38.320 --> 00:11:38.559 Yeah. 00:11:38.960 --> 00:11:41.120 Like they're not good candidates if George W. 00:11:41.200 --> 00:11:42.080

Bush picked them or something. 00:11:42.159 --> 00:11:43.039 Yeah, they're not good candidates. 00:11:43.279 --> 00:11:46.080 Well, I I yeah, it's but it's like I guess like any association. 00:11:46.159 --> 00:11:54.639 I mean, you're as a Republican, you by default are associated with Trump, even though Susan Collins was known for not really always exactly siding with him. 00:11:54.799 --> 00:12:01.759 But just by that association, that that that I feel like that made any that made any Republican candidate obviously kind of radioactive. 00:12:02.000 --> 00:12:02.399 No, I agree. 00:12:02.639 --> 00:12:10.399 And um, and so that's that's but I do I do still think that South Carolina wouldn't have elected a Democrat if I mean if Lindsey Graham was still there, if he hadn't died. 00:12:10.799 --> 00:12:11.679 It didn't surprise me. 00:12:11.759 --> 00:12:12.080 Yeah. 00:12:12.240 --> 00:12:16.240 Um but yeah, it's like I was telling Alanette from Maine Civic Action yesterday. 00:12:16.320 --> 00:12:22.240 I'm like, wow, it was wild that Trump basically single-handedly ended Susan Collins' 30-year political career. 00:12:22.399 --> 00:12:24.960 Like that's actually tribute, at least, you know, in my estimate. 00:12:25.120 --> 00:12:28.960 I know that people, you know, were after her for the Kavanaugh vote and for XYZ. 00:12:29.279 --> 00:12:30.240 They were last time too, you know. 00:12:30.480 --> 00:12:30.799 Well, right. 00:12:30.879 --> 00:12:31.120 That's it. 00:12:31.200 --> 00:12:40.320 Well, that's why I honestly didn't expect her to lose because I was like, we've been they've been, yeah, they've already they already hated on her for Kavanaugh back in 2020. 00:12:40.480 --> 00:12:42.480 So what's really much different now? 00:12:42.559 --> 00:12:48.399 And it's again, it's just it's just like the sheer hatred of Trump, the Iran war, et cetera, et cetera. 00:12:48.480 --> 00:12:59.759 So um, if if anything, I was like, yeah, I was surprised to see her lose, but I was actually more I feel like I was like surprised to see I was not surprised by how many Democrats won. 00:12:59.919 --> 00:13:03.279 I think I was more surprised by the degree to which they won. 00:13:03.440 --> 00:13:04.159 You know what I mean? 00:13:04.240 --> 00:13:08.559 Like the Well, Telurico in Texas didn't just win Texas, that dude won Texas. 00:13:08.960 --> 00:13:09.200 Right, yeah. 00:13:09.440 --> 00:13:10.159 I don't know if it's like seven. 00:13:10.480 --> 00:13:14.399 Well, that's and Texas actually was maybe the most shocking state to me of all of them. 00:13:14.480 --> 00:13:16.480 I was like, holy crap, they blew across the board. 00:13:16.639 --> 00:13:18.639 I'll tell you, yeah, I'll tell you what was shocking was Greg Abbott. 00:13:18.720 --> 00:13:21.519 I mean, like that guy is waltzed to his re-elections. 00:13:21.600 --> 00:13:26.159 And by the way, everybody in tax Texas is more or less like happy with the economy there. 00:13:26.240 --> 00:13:34.159 I

mean, that maybe is an oversimplification, but like Texas is like a beacon of like opportunity and growth and and low taxes and everything else. 00:13:34.240 --> 00:13:36.799 So I think they're generally satisfied with the policies. 00:13:36.960 --> 00:13:40.240 They've tended to like that guy, and they ditched him anyway. 00:13:40.399 --> 00:13:52.799 Yeah, and it's l literally as just an F you to Trump, like by association, which is like I feel like Bobby Charles situation too, because I don't really necessarily associate Bobby Charles with Trump, even though I know that people do. 00:13:52.960 --> 00:13:59.519 But I I think I think it's just because as a governor, it's like I I don't really think about his, I'm not concerned about his relationship with Trump. 00:13:59.679 --> 00:14:03.279 I uh you know, that's more of to me like a federal thing, a Senate thing. 00:14:03.440 --> 00:14:06.240 Like maybe Susan Collins is is that's more of a point of concern. 00:14:06.320 --> 00:14:07.759 But just because you work with them, yeah. 00:14:08.000 --> 00:14:18.399 Yeah, but it's it's you know, uh on on a state level, on a state policy level, it's it's weird to give Trump the F you by voting Democrat for your governor, in my estimation. 00:14:18.720 --> 00:14:22.720 I think I think uh Bobby had his own flaws as a candidate that resulted in that. 00:14:22.879 --> 00:14:28.399 It be like forget if if this wave did not happen, Bobby still wasn't gonna win. 00:14:28.639 --> 00:14:29.679 Like that's how I feel about it. 00:14:30.240 --> 00:14:34.559 Yeah, uh like there was polling going back and forth in the Senate race. 00:14:34.639 --> 00:14:37.279 Uh there was one the not the last one I saw. 00:14:37.360 --> 00:14:43.519 The last one I saw was was uh Jackson up two or up four, but there was one before that that had them tied, wasn't there? 00:14:43.840 --> 00:14:45.039 Uh what, Jackson and Collins? 00:14:45.120 --> 00:14:45.200 Yeah. 00:14:45.360 --> 00:14:45.440 Yeah. 00:14:45.519 --> 00:14:47.919 Actually, Collins was leading an Emerson poll. 00:14:48.000 --> 00:14:50.240 There was one poll late that she was up by two points in. 00:14:50.320 --> 00:14:50.559 Right. 00:14:50.799 --> 00:14:53.120 And you know, polling is polling, whether you believe it or you don't believe it. 00:14:53.200 --> 00:14:56.559 Yeah, but yeah, I'll tell you what though, like the New York Times Siena poll was almost dead on. 00:14:56.639 --> 00:14:59.519 Like, and I was trying to tell people that this entire cycle. 00:14:59.600 --> 00:15:06.720 Like, every how many times did you hear somebody say, well, in Sarah Gideon versus Collins in 20, like, you know, she was down by five in every poll. 00:15:06.799 --> 00:15:08.320 And it's like almost cliche. 00:15:08.559 --> 00:15:11.840 And I don't I said it a million times on this podcast, but I'm like, don't do that. 00:15:12.159 --> 00:15:16.879 Like, yeah, they were wrong last time and they've been wrong in the past, but that doesn't mean they are this time. 00:15:17.120 --> 00:15:19.360 And uh on midterms when Trump's not running. 00:15:19.440 --> 00:15:21.919 I mean, it's it's they're much more accurate in general. 00:15:22.080 --> 00:15:23.440 And they were absolutely dead on. 00:15:23.519 --> 00:15:26.159 I mean, they think they predicted six points, and it's gonna be like five point. 00:15:26.639 --> 00:15:30.879 Uh, let me look at actually really quick, it's like five point four for for Troy. 00:15:31.039 --> 00:15:32.320 So it was like dead on. 00:15:32.480 --> 00:15:33.759 So yeah, stop saying that. 00:15:33.919 --> 00:15:37.519 Like, I I don't trust or like them either, but you can't bank on it. 00:15:37.679 --> 00:15:46.960 You can't be like just like sort of like uh looking at the polls and then just doing some math to adjust them to oh, this is what it really is out there because it's not true necessarily. 00:15:47.279 --> 00:15:52.879 There's a pervasive sentiment, especially among conservatives, that because they've been wrong in the past, they are always wrong, right? 00:15:52.960 --> 00:15:54.000 Which they're just not, yeah. 00:15:54.159 --> 00:15:55.440 They're just unpredictably wrong. 00:15:55.600 --> 00:15:59.120 Like in some years they're terrible, some years they're good, some years they're halfway in between. 00:15:59.200 --> 00:16:06.159 Like you just don't know, but you I would you know always assume that they're right and and run accordingly. 00:16:06.399 --> 00:16:12.399 If you are leading a poll, you know, like assume maybe that it's not right and that you're behind. 00:16:12.480 --> 00:16:16.080 And if it shows you behind, believe it, you know, like just go with it. 00:16:16.159 --> 00:16:19.120 Stop with this whole like, oh yeah, she overperformed by 14 points last time. 00:16:19.600 --> 00:16:28.799 There was one crazy outlier I think I saw in Charles Pingree and the rest of the embarrassed very solidly, like she was like 11, 13 points ahead. 00:16:29.039 --> 00:16:30.240 She overperformed all those. 00:16:30.399 --> 00:16:30.559 Yeah. 00:16:30.720 --> 00:16:32.000 I mean, they they underestimated her. 00:16:32.320 --> 00:16:42.240 I was that's actually what I was gonna say is it it I do marvel at at the fact that Bobby Charles lost more than what the polls originally suggested. 00:16:42.399 --> 00:16:53.440 Because I because I think us here, we were a little incredulous about the poll numbers there, like what she has a 13-point lead or whatever, and then sure enough, he loses by like 17 points. 00:16:53.519 --> 00:16:54.799 Yeah, which was wild. 00:16:55.120 --> 00:17:14.720 I think people don't necessarily associate him with Trump, but I do think that there's like if you're somebody who doesn't watch politics blow by blow like we do, you're just like granny at home, and you see this guy on your TV, he's like a loud boister, he's very his wearing a hat. 00:17:15.039 --> 00:17:16.160 He's very Trumpy. 00:17:16.400 --> 00:17:17.039 You

know what I mean? 00:17:17.119 --> 00:17:23.920 Like he's not he's not he's not like an egotistical borderline narcissist like like Trump is for for sure. 00:17:24.400 --> 00:17:41.039 But he's very loud, he's very out there, he's very get in your face, accusatory, and and sometimes I would say cross the line between like uh and not that not that the ta attacks were out of bounds, but yeah, I guess confrontational is a good word. 00:17:41.279 --> 00:17:41.759 Very aggressive. 00:17:41.839 --> 00:17:42.400 He's very important. 00:17:42.480 --> 00:17:54.079 Well, I thought that the I mean, I guess we can get into that governor's race here a little bit uh in talking about this, but like, you know, Charles and his team went into the well on like corruption with Pingree, like sort of in the last month or so. 00:17:54.240 --> 00:17:59.359 They had that big press conference and like the thing with her and her husband and sort of profiteering and whatever. 00:17:59.599 --> 00:18:02.000 And I just like I mean, they were really happy about it. 00:18:02.079 --> 00:18:04.799 They were like, Oh, we got great press, and I think this was a great thing. 00:18:04.960 --> 00:18:06.400 We really, I think, stuck it to her and stuff. 00:18:06.480 --> 00:18:16.720 And I just felt like as I was watching it that they didn't really understand how it was coming off because it came off like cheap, like political, a little desperate. 00:18:16.960 --> 00:18:19.440 Like, and even if it wasn't, it came off that way. 00:18:19.599 --> 00:18:20.160 You know what I mean? 00:18:20.240 --> 00:18:29.200 Like it, like at some level, when you're running and you're running in the kind of environment they are, you know, I don't think that you can think that kind of stuff's gonna really work that much. 00:18:29.440 --> 00:18:34.640 You're not gonna dust up the person who's leading by apparent 17 points, six points right now. 00:18:34.880 --> 00:18:40.799 You're not gonna dust them up by like a press conference that says that her husband's taking money for this or whatever, no matter how solid you think it is. 00:18:41.039 --> 00:18:44.480 If something was like that was gonna work, you'd literally need bloody fingerprint. 00:18:44.799 --> 00:18:46.000 Yeah, you know what I mean. 00:18:46.400 --> 00:18:52.240 Well, I mean, the the thing, and I've heard this from so many different people too, is that like the thing about Charles campaign was that they just it was invisible. 00:18:52.559 --> 00:18:53.920 It was in I saw one ad. 00:18:54.000 --> 00:18:54.240 I don't know. 00:18:54.400 --> 00:18:55.440 Did you guys even see one? 00:18:55.680 --> 00:18:58.480 I I don't I saw it on the day before. 00:18:58.799 --> 00:19:02.400 It was the day before the election, and it was I swear a 10 second ad. 00:19:02.720 --> 00:19:04.720 It was basically like I have to run a commercial. 00:19:04.799 --> 00:19:05.920 So what's the cheapest one? 00:19:06.000 --> 00:19:06.480 Okay, great. 00:19:06.559 --> 00:19:06.960 Let's do it. 00:19:07.039 --> 00:19:09.519 I'm Bobby Charles, I'm gonna do it, and then out, it was done. 00:19:09.599 --> 00:19:10.799 It was not even a commercial. 00:19:11.200 --> 00:19:13.279 I was like, well, I mean, first of all, why'd you even bother? 00:19:13.440 --> 00:19:29.920 But like secondly, that was the first time in six months that I had seen the guy's face on TV, and I understand it's expensive, it's been crowded out by the Senate race, like I get it, but it's a real symptom of what his real problem was, which was just that he dig he didn't have any ability to actually attract attention at all. 00:19:30.160 --> 00:19:33.200 And if he did, he wasn't converting and persuading people at all. 00:19:33.440 --> 00:19:37.039 And he needed to convert a lot of people and persuade a lot of people. 00:19:37.279 --> 00:19:37.599 Yeah. 00:19:37.920 --> 00:19:39.680 What's wild is I'm looking at the map. 00:19:39.759 --> 00:19:52.480 Um, so I built the main election night.com website, and one of the elements I built into the map was a uh like an overall margin town by town, which actually, you know, if you look at it, it looks like you know Bobby Charles might have done halfway decent, right? 00:19:52.559 --> 00:19:55.599 There's a lot of red in that in that the in that map. 00:19:55.920 --> 00:20:06.000 But in order to judge how the race was going throughout the night, I had set a base expectation for like what I thought they were gonna get for raw votes, you know, like so overall turnout and share of each for every town. 00:20:06.240 --> 00:20:15.279 And how everybody did was gonna tell me which way it was going, like if they overperformed my model or if they underperformed the model, it was gonna adjust itself and tell me, hey, how's things going? 00:20:15.519 --> 00:20:26.400 Well, when you click the versus expectation button, uh, and as you do that, you should note that the expectation was that Pingree was gonna win by 11, I think it was, was my was my model 11, 12, 13. 00:20:26.640 --> 00:20:28.000 And that's about what the polls suggested too. 00:20:28.240 --> 00:20:33.680 Well, that was it was absentee ballots plus polls, plus a few things about the fundamentals of the towns, plus a few other things. 00:20:33.759 --> 00:20:36.400 It was a pretty, I gotta say, pretty nice little model I created. 00:20:36.880 --> 00:20:39.599 But uh it it was basically expecting her to win by 11. 00:20:40.000 --> 00:20:43.200 And so when you hit the button, like, look at this, boom. 00:20:43.359 --> 00:20:47.759 I know that the people on the podcast listening to us can't see, but basically every town in Maine. 00:20:48.000 --> 00:20:48.799 That's a lot of blue. 00:20:49.039 --> 00:20:51.519 That is almost every town she overperformed in. 00:20:51.599 --> 00:20:54.480 Uh, there's a couple in Roostic County, there's here and there in Western Maine. 00:20:55.039 --> 00:20:59.839 The ones that are red, there's like 56 people in the whole town,

and 34 showed up instead of 28. 00:21:00.079 --> 00:21:00.400 Exactly. 00:21:00.480 --> 00:21:01.599 That's exactly what happened too. 00:21:01.759 --> 00:21:08.000 But it was almost the entire state went more for her than I even I expected to based on the data that we had. 00:21:08.160 --> 00:21:10.079 So that tells you that there was a big failure. 00:21:10.160 --> 00:21:12.000 And I think the failure was just invisibility. 00:21:12.160 --> 00:21:18.160 And they really went heavily into like online marketing and stuff, which you know is it's important, it's an element, but it just wasn't gonna breakthrough. 00:21:18.480 --> 00:21:24.160 Now, would that also would that also capture if there are R's voting for D's? 00:21:24.960 --> 00:21:26.079 Rs voting for her? 00:21:26.640 --> 00:21:35.039 Uh no, that is only a strict uh overall margin of R versus D votes in that town versus my expectation. 00:21:35.440 --> 00:21:44.480 So if it's like a town of a thousand people and I expected it to be fifty-five forty-five uh in favor of Pingree and it was actually sixty forty, it would turn itself blue, essentially. 00:21:44.559 --> 00:21:51.680 That's all it's but but that could be a result of people who you had estimated were going to vote for Charles who did not and voted for Pingree instead of. 00:21:51.920 --> 00:21:53.200 Yeah, whatever yes, a hundred percent. 00:21:53.359 --> 00:21:55.839 It doesn't give you the diagnosis of exactly how it happened. 00:21:55.920 --> 00:21:56.079 Yeah. 00:21:56.319 --> 00:21:59.119 But we can I mean there's a little bit of stuff we can do to halfway figure it out. 00:21:59.279 --> 00:22:09.200 I mean Th there's um I did a little preliminary analysis of like the turnout and the estimations of like how many D's came out versus how many R's came out and how many unenrolleds did. 00:22:09.359 --> 00:22:17.759 And long and the short of it is that about 90 to 95 percent in most of the state of the Democrats who came out in 2024 came out in 2026. 00:22:17.920 --> 00:22:20.319 So they all basically had presidential turnout. 00:22:20.720 --> 00:22:25.680 The Republicans were down in the 70s and 80s, and actually even that's nationwide pretty good, frankly. 00:22:25.839 --> 00:22:27.599 Like it's in the 70s or 60s. 00:22:28.160 --> 00:22:29.519 I think it's in like the 40s in Texas. 00:22:29.599 --> 00:22:30.160 It's unbelievable. 00:22:30.880 --> 00:22:32.240 Texas had really low turnout, didn't they? 00:22:32.559 --> 00:22:33.680 Well, just on Republicans. 00:22:33.759 --> 00:22:34.160 Yeah, right. 00:22:34.480 --> 00:22:36.319 Republican turnout was terrible in Texas. 00:22:36.640 --> 00:22:38.480 Um so can I ask what you think? 00:22:38.559 --> 00:22:41.200 What like what that phenomenon, what's behind that phenomenon? 00:22:41.440 --> 00:22:42.720 I think Jake's opening statement. 00:22:42.960 --> 00:22:52.960 Yeah, I think I think I voted for a program that I'm not getting, and I I the generally it's probably like I'm not

gonna vote for that, but I'm certainly not gonna come defend this. 00:22:53.039 --> 00:22:55.519 That's that's what that's I think that's exactly what it was. 00:22:55.680 --> 00:23:02.400 I think that's exactly what it was, like apathy, disappointment, you know, like uh not liking how stuff's going. 00:23:02.720 --> 00:23:18.640 I know that he's a very controversial figure, but uh I I did I remember watching a uh a few months ago a clip of Nick Fuentes um on YouTube saying something about how and he he was like a once you know, once upon a time, he was like a super Trump guy, you know, Trump's biggest fan practically. 00:23:18.799 --> 00:23:20.400 Um certainly not true anymore. 00:23:20.720 --> 00:23:46.240 And yeah, and then this year he's like basically encouraging all of his listeners to vote Democrat just as an F you to the Republican Party um to pro as a yeah, as like a protest vote because because you know, as as many Republicans feel, Trump has broken all of his campaign promises, especially with the Iran war, um, and we're not getting what we voted for, or the Republicans are not getting what we what they voted for. 00:23:46.400 --> 00:23:52.480 So therefore, you should everyone should go and um make the Republicans feel it at on election day. 00:23:52.720 --> 00:23:53.440 Yeah, that'll teach them. 00:23:53.519 --> 00:23:54.480 I'm sure they'll learn a lesson. 00:23:54.720 --> 00:24:03.680 Yeah, I'm just saying, like, but I'm just saying, like, there are, I'm sure, plenty of Republicans out there like that who are like, no, actually, F you, I voted for you, and you are not doing anything that you promised. 00:24:03.920 --> 00:24:07.519 So Echelon Insights, which is a firm I really respect, it's run by Patrick Caffini. 00:24:07.599 --> 00:24:10.960 They did some exit polling data stuff um on election day. 00:24:11.119 --> 00:24:13.119 And is this in a particular state? 00:24:13.519 --> 00:24:14.559 Uh this was nationwide. 00:24:14.799 --> 00:24:15.599 This was nationwide. 00:24:15.759 --> 00:24:25.359 And uh basically what they did is they were interviewing people who said, I mean, they interviewed everybody, but they interviewed people who said that they voted for Trump in 2024 and then did not in 2026. 00:24:25.519 --> 00:24:26.799 And they were like, why? 00:24:26.960 --> 00:24:29.039 Like, what's what's what's the reason? 00:24:29.279 --> 00:24:41.839 Uh the top response uh of 42% of the people who answered that question who were either Republicans or whoever voted for Trump and then didn't, uh, was economy and cost of living. 00:24:42.480 --> 00:24:45.920 I mean, I mean, I did vote, but like even I felt it, right? 00:24:46.000 --> 00:24:51.839 Like, I mean, it it it I'm doing pretty damn well for myself, honestly, and it hurts to put gas in my truck. 00:24:52.000 --> 00:24:52.480 It hurts. 00:24:52.640 --> 00:24:54.799 Like our home heating oil situation is a nightmare. 00:24:54.880 --> 00:24:58.799 We have a bunch of kids, big house, like it's really, really expensive. 00:24:58.960 --> 00:25:04.079 And if I'm having trouble with it, I have to imagine somebody on the economic margins is getting crushed right now. 00:25:04.240 --> 00:25:05.279 And that's these folks, I think. 00:25:05.359 --> 00:25:08.160 Largely I am genuinely worried about Mayners going into winter right now. 00:25:08.319 --> 00:25:08.960 Yeah, you should be. 00:25:09.119 --> 00:25:13.599 The second one, by the way, and this I'm I know will appeal to Jake, is foreign policy wars in Iran. 00:25:13.759 --> 00:25:15.279 That's 15% of respondents. 00:25:15.359 --> 00:25:18.160 Yeah, you know, then you get broken campaign promises, leadership and direction. 00:25:18.640 --> 00:25:19.680 It's hard for me, it's hard. 00:25:19.759 --> 00:25:37.759 I I found it funny because I saw some clip of Mark Levin and and uh Ben Shapiro talking about uh the reasons why people are gonna war, what uh vote what they're upset about, and they said something about like, yeah, the Iran war is not gonna be a factor because the latest Fox News poll shows it's only at four percent of an issue. 00:25:37.839 --> 00:25:40.400 And it's like, what what what what was the question? 00:25:40.559 --> 00:25:41.759 Do you care about Iran? 00:25:41.920 --> 00:25:42.640 Like, yeah, sure. 00:25:42.720 --> 00:25:44.400 Maybe four percent of people said no. 00:25:44.559 --> 00:25:49.920 I mean, said yes to that, but uh the cost of living is a result of that decision. 00:25:50.160 --> 00:25:51.599 The better question is no way to separate the truth. 00:25:51.759 --> 00:25:56.400 The better question would have been do you blame Trump's decision to go into Iran for your really expensive gas? 00:25:56.480 --> 00:25:58.160 Yes, and that's most people would say yes. 00:25:58.319 --> 00:25:58.400 Right. 00:25:58.480 --> 00:26:02.880 I was gonna say if you pulled the American public on that, it'd probably be 84% yes. 00:26:03.200 --> 00:26:05.759 They had some verbatims too when they did these interviews. 00:26:06.000 --> 00:26:09.680 I can't afford to live was the top one. 00:26:09.839 --> 00:26:14.960 Uh in 2024, I got the impression that he was going to support the country a lot more than he has been. 00:26:15.200 --> 00:26:18.079 Now his actions have increased the cost of living. 00:26:18.319 --> 00:26:24.799 The high inflation caused by the endless wars and how he campaigned for uh no more endless wars. 00:26:24.960 --> 00:26:31.119 Uh the on again, off again situation with tariffs is causing unnecessary problems and economic disruption, et cetera, et cetera. 00:26:31.200 --> 00:26:33.440 So it's like, I think it's everything we've been talking about. 00:26:33.599 --> 00:26:36.319 Like they're just they're dissatisfied with what they got from him. 00:26:36.400 --> 00:26:46.559 And I think maybe the best the worst sin that I've seen so far that I think made it not just a bad year, but a really truly, truly bad year was that he seemed to not care very

much. 00:26:46.720 --> 00:26:52.240 Like he day after the election, he's out there in his dumb ballroom, sitting there, like, oh, we're gonna put a beam up. 00:26:52.319 --> 00:26:53.279 Look at this great ballroom. 00:26:53.359 --> 00:26:57.920 You know, he's today he, you know, had declared a national monument, the Oval Office. 00:26:58.079 --> 00:27:01.839 Like, wow, you know, like really responsive to the things I care about right now. 00:27:01.920 --> 00:27:03.920 And like, yeah, I actually do think they need a ballroom. 00:27:04.000 --> 00:27:07.200 Like, I don't give a damn about the the building, you know. 00:27:07.440 --> 00:27:14.640 But you know, the arch the arch just got you know nicked by a judge or whatever, and he's like all excited about this damn arch that he's putting on the bridge next to it. 00:27:14.720 --> 00:27:17.359 Like it seems like Marie Antoinette kind of double stuff. 00:27:17.440 --> 00:27:18.000 Yeah, it does. 00:27:18.079 --> 00:27:23.920 It's like you are you are imperial and you're in a bubble and you are saying it would be radically out of two. 00:27:24.160 --> 00:27:30.880 If he said, if he came out and gave us like an Oval Office speech and like a TV address or something like that, and he's like, Look, guys, yeah, I heard it's loud and clear. 00:27:31.119 --> 00:27:33.599 Yeah, I I I know you're pissed about this. 00:27:33.759 --> 00:27:35.039 I want to explain to you why I did it. 00:27:35.119 --> 00:27:36.000 I still believe in what I did. 00:27:36.079 --> 00:27:40.720 You can even go down that road if you need to be like, I'm gonna defend why we did this a little bit, right? 00:27:40.880 --> 00:27:41.839 But dude, I get it. 00:27:41.920 --> 00:27:45.279 And we're gonna try to do what we can to try to fix this for you. 00:27:45.519 --> 00:27:52.079 That would be what I think would communicate to people that you understand the pain in some way. 00:27:52.160 --> 00:27:54.960 Yeah, you know, that's why Bill Clinton was popular. 00:27:55.119 --> 00:27:59.440 It wasn't that nothing was wrong in the country, it was that like when it was, he was like, Be a straight shooter. 00:27:59.759 --> 00:28:02.079 I understand that, and I'm gonna do something to try. 00:28:02.160 --> 00:28:05.200 Yeah, you know, and even if you failed, he he understood. 00:28:05.519 --> 00:28:09.359 There's you know, there's a couple things that I heard on election night that just blew me away. 00:28:09.519 --> 00:28:15.039 One, Trump-related, was he before the election, he said, vote like I'm on the ballot. 00:28:15.200 --> 00:28:21.359 And then and then his immediate statement on truth social was something to the effect of like Republicans lost because I wasn't on the ballot. 00:28:21.519 --> 00:28:22.960 It's like, no, no, no, no, no, no. 00:28:23.119 --> 00:28:32.799 You lost because you are the head of our government and you're a buffoon, and you've done the opposite of what you said you were going to do, and this is everybody repudiate repudiating that. 00:28:33.039 --> 00:28:36.079 Trump's uh guns blazing today. 00:28:36.400 --> 00:28:41.279 I don't remember which channel, which channel is uh Kaylee, is it Kaylee McInney? 00:28:41.440 --> 00:28:42.640 Katie McInney McNane. 00:28:42.880 --> 00:28:44.160 Kayle McInney, which channel? 00:28:44.400 --> 00:28:45.680 I think she's Fox, isn't she? 00:28:45.759 --> 00:29:06.160 It's it's uh when I was at the shoe fox thing in uh Bangor, one of the TV, I couldn't remember if it was that or CNN, but there was something playing, and she said, and I quote, uh maybe it's not verbatim, but it's something to the effect of this election was about socialism and Republicans failed to make the case against it. 00:29:06.480 --> 00:29:08.720 This election had nothing to do with socialism. 00:29:08.799 --> 00:29:33.599 Yeah, I don't know who pays-I wish that it would have been to go on TV and say these moronic things, but if you believe that, if you're still in any way prescribed to this program where where like you're waiting with baited breath for the next thing to come out of Donald Trump's mouth because you just believe it, like I'm sorry, but you might be worse than a liberal in my book right now. 00:29:33.839 --> 00:29:41.920 And not not that not that I dislike liberals, there's plenty who are my friend, but it's like you're you're you're as lost as they are from an ideological standpoint. 00:29:42.000 --> 00:29:42.559 You just are. 00:29:42.720 --> 00:29:45.519 I hate to break it to you, but you are this guy's misguided, yeah. 00:29:45.759 --> 00:29:47.200 This guy does not care about you. 00:29:47.359 --> 00:29:53.599 This guy cares about himself, he cares about his image, he cares about his ego, he cares about his legacy. 00:29:53.839 --> 00:29:55.039 He doesn't care about you. 00:29:55.119 --> 00:30:02.880 And if he cared about you, we wouldn't be in the next pointless war with Iran. 00:30:03.279 --> 00:30:05.200 That's just the plain chain reality of it. 00:30:06.160 --> 00:30:06.640 Well, I don't know. 00:30:06.720 --> 00:30:16.559 I wouldn't go that far because I think there is, I mean, you can certainly disagree with it, and I think I do, but like you can make a case that Iran was a foreign policy necessity or something like that if you want to. 00:30:16.720 --> 00:30:31.599 I think the bigger sin of his is that it was so callous, and he there was no kind of recognition that there were like other things that were really, really important in the country that he was just totally ignoring and not even talking about. 00:30:31.759 --> 00:30:37.839 I mean, did you really hear anything about gas prices at all from the guy in the last no six months or so, right? 00:30:38.079 --> 00:30:43.279 And maybe he didn't want to talk about it because a lot of it does relate to Iran and the Hormuz thing and all that stuff, I suppose. 00:30:43.519 --> 00:30:50.480 But I do think that there was a just total blind spot in the administration from

talking about the things that ordinary people actually gave a shit about. 00:30:50.960 --> 00:30:55.839 And because of that, you know, everybody got the message like you don't really care that much about the things that I do. 00:30:56.160 --> 00:30:59.039 Yeah, keep chilling in your ivory tower while all of us suffer, bro. 00:30:59.119 --> 00:31:14.240 Yeah, and there's there's other issues, not that these were like there's no doubt in my mind that the if you had to narrow it to two things which are intertwined, it is war and cost of living, you know, just energy prices generally are what drive the cost of living issue. 00:31:14.640 --> 00:31:18.559 Um I don't think there's any way to to break those two things off. 00:31:18.720 --> 00:31:23.200 Also, I just thought of this, and uh this is separate from where I was going, but I wanted I just remembered it. 00:31:23.359 --> 00:31:24.799 We we were talking about Florida. 00:31:24.960 --> 00:31:30.559 Yeah, can we talk for just a second about the fact that uh they can conduct like what is it? 00:31:30.640 --> 00:31:35.279 What are they the third, fourth biggest state in the country? 00:31:35.519 --> 00:31:36.000 Florida? 00:31:36.240 --> 00:31:37.839 Yes, something or third, yeah. 00:31:38.240 --> 00:31:38.880 Third fourth. 00:31:39.119 --> 00:31:46.559 Yeah, how can they conduct an election in like two hours and get it done and give everybody the results and report everything in like Maine? 00:31:46.640 --> 00:31:50.400 It's like you gotta wait till 36 hours later. 00:31:50.720 --> 00:31:52.079 Like, come on, man. 00:31:52.160 --> 00:31:53.440 Like I I get it, I get it. 00:31:53.519 --> 00:31:57.440 You have like these small rural towns way out in the middle of nowhere, but that should make it easier. 00:31:57.519 --> 00:31:58.640 Yeah, it's not a lot of ballots. 00:31:58.880 --> 00:32:01.599 It's like even if there's one person there, you just gotta count 200 ballots. 00:32:01.680 --> 00:32:03.759 I can count to 200 in 45 seconds. 00:32:03.920 --> 00:32:06.480 Like, why does it take so long in the state to do that? 00:32:06.640 --> 00:32:09.519 I I think it's actually the reporting that takes forever. 00:32:09.599 --> 00:32:12.160 Like, I think they're doing it like on telegraph or something. 00:32:12.240 --> 00:32:22.960 Like it's like I don't know what they're really doing, honestly, to report those results because it should take, I mean, in a town of 150 or something, which a lot of these ones that came in at like 11 or 12 p.m. 00:32:23.200 --> 00:32:24.240 uh or uh a.m. 00:32:24.400 --> 00:32:29.519 I guess, or in the morning uh when we came back on Wednesday, like a lot of those are really small towns. 00:32:29.680 --> 00:32:32.880 Like you should be able to do that by hand in about an hour, right? 00:32:33.119 --> 00:32:34.240 Yeah, that's amazing. 00:32:34.480 --> 00:32:35.039 It makes no sense. 00:32:35.359 --> 00:32:44.319 Speaking of which, uh, as of the recording of this podcast, the LaPage Dunlap race is still going to rank choice voting on Monday. 00:32:44.480 --> 00:32:47.599 Yeah, it was announced yesterday, but then it it kind of complicated things. 00:32:47.680 --> 00:32:51.599 It got weird because because Dunlap conceded the race. 00:32:51.839 --> 00:32:52.960 It's because he's lost, yeah. 00:32:53.119 --> 00:32:56.799 Yeah, but it's you know, so I was talking to Montana about this. 00:32:56.880 --> 00:33:01.759 It's like, okay, well, so if he conceded, does that mean he's like, you know, that's that's it? 00:33:02.000 --> 00:33:02.559 That's the finale. 00:33:02.799 --> 00:33:05.759 But it's like, but uh so by law, they probably have to Right. 00:33:06.000 --> 00:33:10.079 This is one of the only times you'll ever hear me actually halfway sort of defend Shenobellos. 00:33:10.319 --> 00:33:13.039 Like there really isn't much you can do about it. 00:33:13.119 --> 00:33:16.480 Like it's supposed to automatically proceed to RCV if somebody's under 50%. 00:33:16.960 --> 00:33:23.599 The thing I object to is the Secretary of State's rulemaking that says we're gonna put the denominator as the blank votes plus the regular votes. 00:33:23.680 --> 00:33:26.559 Like, if you're a blank vote, you don't exist in my book. 00:33:26.720 --> 00:33:31.119 That should not be like in the math for who got 50 or who did not get 50. 00:33:31.279 --> 00:33:34.720 You have surrendered your choice by not filling out a ballot. 00:33:34.799 --> 00:33:36.319 So I don't care that they're there. 00:33:36.400 --> 00:33:40.720 It shouldn't be counted in the percentage, but they do, and since they are, they got to do it. 00:33:40.799 --> 00:33:42.400 But he's got 49.9%. 00:33:43.599 --> 00:33:44.960 He's leading by like 6,000 votes. 00:33:45.440 --> 00:33:46.079 Dunlap, yeah. 00:33:46.160 --> 00:33:48.480 I think Dunlap has like 48.3. 00:33:49.039 --> 00:33:50.240 Yeah, that sounds about right. 00:33:50.640 --> 00:34:04.480 It's because it's because the blank ballots, and this has happened in the past, but I think the example they gave in one of the golden elections was there was 38 out of 10,000, some are 380 out of 10,000, whatever whatever the hell the number was. 00:34:04.640 --> 00:34:10.159 It's some minuscule percentage of people who do not make a valid first place choice. 00:34:10.320 --> 00:34:20.960 They leave it blank, but there is a tiny, tiny, tiny universe of people who will make a second choice ranking, which if the election goes two rounds, does become a valid first place choice. 00:34:21.199 --> 00:34:22.960 And I get that, but I don't care. 00:34:23.119 --> 00:34:25.039 Like you didn't make a first place choice. 00:34:25.199 --> 00:34:26.320 So it doesn't get counted. 00:34:26.480 --> 00:34:28.159 I I agree with you that that's how it should be. 00:34:28.239 --> 00:34:33.119 And and I believe it was uh David Boyer who had a bill in to do that, and you know. 00:34:33.599 --> 00:34:36.079 So it's weird too, because Boyer win.

00:34:36.480 --> 00:34:40.800 I'm trying to figure out who died in the in the or politically died in the in the race. 00:34:40.880 --> 00:34:42.400 I haven't kept track of all the legislative seats. 00:34:42.800 --> 00:34:43.280 Yes, he did. 00:34:43.360 --> 00:34:45.039 He ran on a post, I'm pretty sure. 00:34:46.159 --> 00:34:48.559 Excuse me, his district was fine, so yeah. 00:34:48.800 --> 00:34:59.199 Yeah, uh it's just it's wild to me too that all the costs uh associated with with RCV now like still have to be essentially taken. 00:34:59.280 --> 00:35:05.519 They have to, you know, there's still resources from the state that have to be used to count this to count the votes, you know. 00:35:05.760 --> 00:35:06.800 I think there's something that's already done. 00:35:07.119 --> 00:35:09.599 There really should be a law if your opponent concedes, you don't have to do it. 00:35:09.840 --> 00:35:10.159 Yeah. 00:35:10.239 --> 00:35:10.480 Yeah. 00:35:10.719 --> 00:35:11.199 It's not the law. 00:35:11.440 --> 00:35:12.239 Because it will there should be. 00:35:12.480 --> 00:35:17.280 Yeah, because it's gonna take money and resources to count these votes again, and all for what? 00:35:17.599 --> 00:35:19.039 You know, just to fulfill the law. 00:35:19.199 --> 00:35:23.920 I feel bad that I derailed this because now I don't remember what I was gonna say originally about Trump and Iran and this stuff. 00:35:24.239 --> 00:35:26.320 Probably a couple things that you'll you'll still it'll still come up. 00:35:26.480 --> 00:35:27.119 Yeah, it'll come back. 00:35:27.280 --> 00:35:31.119 Well, I do want to go back to something else we were just talking about a minute ago that has been bugging me for a long time. 00:35:31.199 --> 00:35:36.639 And I'm not sure I'm gonna be a terribly popular guy to say this, but you've been tumping on Trump, so I'm probably not the enemy today. 00:35:37.599 --> 00:35:44.239 But the media, um, and not not like the media that we usually complain about, like the New York Times and the CNNs and all that. 00:35:44.480 --> 00:35:45.519 Conservative media. 00:35:45.760 --> 00:35:50.800 Conservative media is a is not a blessing, in my opinion, to the movement right now. 00:35:50.880 --> 00:35:52.719 I think it is holding them back. 00:35:52.800 --> 00:36:06.079 I think it's a noose around their neck, and I think it is a very comfortable little lie that they like to tell themselves that what they what they hear and what they read and what they see on conservative media is worth wasting your time on. 00:36:06.320 --> 00:36:12.559 I have not been a Fox News viewer for probably the better part of 10 years, I would say at least at least, frankly. 00:36:12.719 --> 00:36:20.159 And it's not because I have a particular objection to the political point of view of any Fox News host or even the news guys or anything like that. 00:36:20.239 --> 00:36:23.920 Like it has nothing to do with that, really, because I agree with them on most stuff, I'm sure. 00:36:24.239 --> 00:36:27.119 But it's it's just sycophantic BS. 00:36:27.360 --> 00:36:35.519 It it's it's like they the lens through which they view everything that happens is as though they are communicators at the RNC. 00:36:35.599 --> 00:36:46.960 Like it, they just they will the programming that they do, the guests they line up, and how they ask them questions, you know, obviously the political programming when you get later in the evening and all that stuff, it's just entirely unhelpful. 00:36:47.039 --> 00:36:49.280 And it's just like what you do, it's like comfort food. 00:36:49.440 --> 00:36:50.559 You're getting fat though. 00:36:50.719 --> 00:36:53.119 Like it's comf comfort food makes you fat. 00:36:53.440 --> 00:37:01.440 Okay, so stop eating the biscuits and the gravy and all the horrible, horrible food that you are you are becoming obese eating. 00:37:01.599 --> 00:37:04.880 That's what I'm saying to the people that are listening who consume conservative media. 00:37:05.039 --> 00:37:14.880 I'm not gonna name names, I'm not gonna name channels, but I did a lot of media this year because Maine was such an interesting race and they were looking for literally any stooge they could possibly get to get on TV. 00:37:14.960 --> 00:37:25.519 So I did a lot of hits, and in certain hits, I mean, some of these are worse than others, but in certain hits that I was doing, um, you know, I would join and I like being an analyst. 00:37:25.599 --> 00:37:28.239 I like telling people like what I think's really happening and stuff. 00:37:28.320 --> 00:37:32.880 But I would be asked questions like, so President Trump's in town and he's really firing people up. 00:37:33.039 --> 00:37:35.199 What do you think what do you hear about how awesome he is? 00:37:35.360 --> 00:37:37.920 Like, is that what I really think is happening? 00:37:38.079 --> 00:37:42.159 And you know, and then of course it incentivizes me to kind of tell this audience what they want to hear. 00:37:42.400 --> 00:37:48.559 I tried to give them actual truth, but I mean, you know, I'm not gonna sit there and like, you know, rain on the parade on the wrong place. 00:37:48.880 --> 00:37:50.639 And who is watching it? 00:37:50.880 --> 00:37:51.760 Who is watching it? 00:37:51.840 --> 00:37:53.599 It's people who want that to be true. 00:37:53.920 --> 00:38:03.360 They want the whole like uh state that he's visiting or whatever to be really, really excited that he's there and it's gonna turn out Republicans and they're gonna win the election, and everything is great. 00:38:03.519 --> 00:38:14.239 Like the level of delusion that existed, I think, going into the election among the people on the right is a direct result of the information they consume and how they consume it. 00:38:14.400 --> 00:38:15.599 And it has to end. 00:38:15.840 --> 00:38:16.639 Stop it. 00:38:16.880 --> 00:38:19.599 Stop feeding this beast, I ask you. 00:38:19.679 --> 00:38:20.079 I beg you. 00:38:20.480 -->

00:38:22.880 Yeah, that's that's what I was talking about, was Kaylee McKinney. 00:38:23.119 --> 00:38:23.199 Yeah. 00:38:23.840 --> 00:38:31.119 And that what you're talking about is the same thing that I was touching upon in terms of like trying to say that this election was about things that it was not about. 00:38:31.199 --> 00:38:38.159 It was so clearly about the program of the last two years and it not meeting the expectations that were laid out before it all started. 00:38:38.400 --> 00:38:39.840 There's there's no way around that. 00:38:39.920 --> 00:38:50.000 And I I I found it, I I just have to say that this is, I mean, I I'm I'm I'm so opposed to every Trump is just number one on my shit list. 00:38:50.159 --> 00:38:51.519 There's no way around it, right? 00:38:51.920 --> 00:38:56.000 But here's like the great irony of this all to me. 00:38:57.440 --> 00:39:18.239 The the RNC or Donald Trump, or I don't know who dreams up these uh talking points that just get regurgitated, but you heard the steady drum of it's about socialism, it's about socialism, it's about socialism, like the last month basically when they knew that they were underwater and they were gonna get toast, and that was like their last gasp, right? 00:39:19.280 --> 00:39:31.679 What how on earth can you say that this is all about socialism when Donald Trump himself, like a month before the election, said, if we win, I'll give you five thousand dollar checks. 00:39:32.159 --> 00:39:33.119 Like, what the hell? 00:39:33.280 --> 00:39:34.480 Yeah, what do you mean? 00:39:34.639 --> 00:39:37.840 Like this this whole this whole thing is a farce. 00:39:37.920 --> 00:39:38.800 It's a it's a joke. 00:39:38.960 --> 00:39:44.239 Vote for me and I will redistribute wealth and give you a check for$5,000. 00:39:44.960 --> 00:39:46.239 Which would never happen, by the way. 00:39:46.639 --> 00:39:47.360 Right, right, right. 00:39:47.519 --> 00:39:48.400 It wouldn't happen. 00:39:48.480 --> 00:39:49.440 Uh you know what I mean? 00:39:49.519 --> 00:39:52.320 Like the the Congress probably wouldn't vote for it. 00:39:52.480 --> 00:39:55.679 Um he'll send that check right after I get my tariff relief check or whatever. 00:39:55.920 --> 00:39:56.239 Yeah, right. 00:39:56.960 --> 00:40:13.119 Um so so it's just like that that to me is like the great irony is that this election is allegedly about socialism, and in their last gasp to rip retain power, they're promising everybody to redistribute wealth to the tune of five thousand dollar checks to everybody. 00:40:14.880 --> 00:40:19.599 Well, you're not you're not under the misapprehension that the Republican Party actually cares about socialism, are you? 00:40:19.920 --> 00:40:21.519 I mean, it's just because the modern one doesn't. 00:40:21.599 --> 00:40:27.039 That's one of the things that's making me most despondent about modern politics is there's no longer a home for someone like me. 00:40:27.280 --> 00:40:34.239 I've been a Republican ever since I was 18 when I when I registered to vote, um, which I think everybody in the audience knows because we talk about it so often. 00:40:34.400 --> 00:40:40.079 But I mean, you know, the last 10, 15 years or so on on an almost daily basis, I'm like, I should just pull it. 00:40:40.159 --> 00:40:42.639 Like it's just it's so worthless to me to be in this party. 00:40:42.719 --> 00:40:45.599 The only reason I ever maintain it is just to vote in primaries, I guess. 00:40:45.760 --> 00:40:49.280 But I'm not sure why, because it doesn't really get me much of anything. 00:40:49.440 --> 00:41:01.360 Um, but like I I I joined the party and I'm on the right side of the political aisle for a reason, because I believe in limited government and, you know, capitalism and all that other fun stuff that Republicans used to believe in. 00:41:01.519 --> 00:41:02.880 And they just don't anymore. 00:41:03.039 --> 00:41:05.519 Like, they don't care about debt, they don't care about spending. 00:41:05.679 --> 00:41:06.719 In fact, they want to increase it. 00:41:06.880 --> 00:41:16.880 I mean, when Trump came into office and he started talking about the Pentagon budget going up to like$1.4 trillion or something like that, like I like the military too, guys, but Jesus, come on, let's be a little rational here. 00:41:16.960 --> 00:41:19.360 You're not gonna cut the size of the deficit by doing that. 00:41:19.519 --> 00:41:21.519 So he didn't care about it, nobody else did either. 00:41:21.679 --> 00:41:26.719 Yeah, sure, they did the big beautiful bill with some, I think, decent tax law, although it wasn't really that great. 00:41:26.880 --> 00:41:29.199 There's a lot of shortcomings in it, but it was okay. 00:41:29.360 --> 00:41:33.760 Um, but outside of that, like the regulatory environment like hasn't really been improving. 00:41:33.920 --> 00:41:35.119 In fact, there's a lot of stuff that's there. 00:41:35.280 --> 00:41:38.960 The tariff issue, which I'm gonna go on at length about every once in a while. 00:41:39.119 --> 00:41:44.719 Um, it's it's like economically left of center in in almost every respect these days. 00:41:44.800 --> 00:41:46.320 So where the hell am I supposed to go now? 00:41:46.400 --> 00:41:46.719 Yeah. 00:41:46.960 --> 00:41:47.440 I don't know. 00:41:47.519 --> 00:41:49.119 I'm not gonna be a libertarian party member. 00:41:49.199 --> 00:41:49.519 I'm sorry. 00:41:49.599 --> 00:41:50.880 I'm just not that's a joke of the party. 00:41:51.360 --> 00:41:52.000 Come on over. 00:41:52.079 --> 00:41:57.280 Uh I would if your party didn't have an absolute shit show of crazy people. 00:41:57.760 --> 00:41:59.519 Me and my 62 closest friends. 00:42:00.000 --> 00:42:07.119 It's funny that you say that though, Matt, because I saw a post from um uh the Instagram account called Being a Libertarian. 00:42:07.199 --> 00:42:15.119 Yeah, and it said that for the first time since the Republican Party's founding, New England will have zero GOP senators

after Susan Collins' loss in Maine. 00:42:15.280 --> 00:42:21.679 And it's funny because a lot of the people commenting were like, Are you gonna really are are we still pretending that Susan Collins is Republican? 00:42:21.840 --> 00:42:25.760 Or you know, you know, all these people basically saying like Republicans aren't even conservative anymore. 00:42:25.920 --> 00:42:28.239 And it's kind of and it's it certainly feels that way. 00:42:28.559 --> 00:42:33.679 I suppose so, but that's probably a MAGA person saying that she was insufficiently conservative, I would bet. 00:42:34.079 --> 00:42:41.440 Totally possible because that's been they've been dumping on her for that for 20 or 30 years, which I mean it's not exactly an unfair criticism because she was a moderate, but right, right. 00:42:41.760 --> 00:42:46.559 I just like their version, like the extreme right now, like whatever that even means, yeah. 00:42:46.639 --> 00:42:55.119 You know, I don't even know what it means, but the extreme right, their views on economics are basically not that far off from Bernie Sanders in a lot of ways right now. 00:42:55.280 --> 00:42:55.840 They just aren't. 00:42:56.079 --> 00:42:56.320 Yeah. 00:42:56.400 --> 00:42:59.039 Who uh who's the guy who uh Steve Bannon? 00:42:59.119 --> 00:43:01.679 Steve Bannon and is like no conservative. 00:43:01.920 --> 00:43:03.760 Right, he's basically a Bernie bro at this point. 00:43:03.840 --> 00:43:04.079 Yeah. 00:43:04.239 --> 00:43:17.679 Um but to your point about the uh like the unhelpfulness of the conservative media environment, I think that in many ways is indicative of the civil war that I would argue. 00:43:17.840 --> 00:43:23.119 I mean, obviously there was big differences between different commentators talking heads, yada yada yada. 00:43:23.360 --> 00:43:25.280 But you talk about like the podcast war people? 00:43:25.679 --> 00:43:26.159 Yeah, yeah, yeah. 00:43:26.320 --> 00:43:26.880 That that. 00:43:26.960 --> 00:43:38.400 Um so I think like depending on which side of that you're on, if you don't consume anything else, including the other side of the infighting within the Republican Party, that's not going to be helpful to you. 00:43:38.480 --> 00:43:43.199 You definitely need to consume like more mainstream stuff too to get a better feeling. 00:43:43.440 --> 00:43:45.199 So just to slap you across the face every once in a while. 00:43:45.599 --> 00:43:49.519 Yeah, to to to to get a better idea of like what's actually going on there in the world. 00:43:49.599 --> 00:44:07.599 But um I do think that we have already seen as a result of how quickly JD Vance got out there, like they're this loss uh and And I feel like I've I'm to some degree vindicated because I think the last time I was on this podcast, I said Donald Trump is going to destroy this party. 00:44:07.760 --> 00:44:14.400 This this war with Iran and his whole program falling to pieces is going to destroy this party. 00:44:14.480 --> 00:44:24.960

And to some degree, that's not even like that hot of a take, because when you have a president who is done their second term, there's going to be a vacuum that needs to be vacuum of power that needs to be filled anyway. 00:44:25.280 --> 00:44:30.800 But the the haste with which JD Vance, who obviously wants to run for president, we've known that in 2028. 00:44:30.960 --> 00:44:34.320 The haste with which he came out and was like, Yep, this was about Iran. 00:44:34.480 --> 00:44:34.559 Yeah. 00:44:34.880 --> 00:44:40.320 Kind of distancing, trying to distance himself from the administration of which he's a part, which is very funny. 00:44:40.480 --> 00:44:50.559 Um and then, you know, even from then there's been fallout related to his statement on uh you know what is the real cause of this. 00:44:50.800 --> 00:44:50.960 Yeah. 00:44:51.119 --> 00:44:57.280 Well, you bring up an uncomfortable truth, which is that the political right right now has no idea what it is. 00:44:57.440 --> 00:45:00.239 And there's factions, and the factions hate each other. 00:45:00.480 --> 00:45:10.639 And, you know, the podcast uh bro situation with like, you know, the Shapiro's and the Tuckers and the Candace Owenses and all the all of the many names that you all know. 00:45:10.800 --> 00:45:12.719 There's a couple things that disturb me about it. 00:45:12.800 --> 00:45:19.519 The first one is the obvious one because they just it's a fractured movement and you can't possibly win stuff when you are infighting like that. 00:45:19.599 --> 00:45:20.400 It's just not possible. 00:45:20.480 --> 00:45:21.360 And wouldn't you know it? 00:45:21.440 --> 00:45:23.679 They just lost everything because they're in fighting. 00:45:23.920 --> 00:45:37.199 But also because like it's a symptom of something that's existed in the conservative movement for I think like the better part of my life, actually, like 30, 40 years, which is this weird sort of like uh obsession with personalities. 00:45:37.440 --> 00:45:39.840 I like I I don't I've never liked it. 00:45:39.920 --> 00:45:43.599 It's I don't know if it began with talk radio, maybe back in the way, old days. 00:45:43.760 --> 00:45:45.679 And it does sort of make sense if you think about it. 00:45:45.760 --> 00:45:56.960 Like if the media is against you and you don't have anybody who you agree with or you like that you can watch in the evening news, if there's a talk radio guy that says what you think too, and like you really, oh my god, I finally hear it. 00:45:57.039 --> 00:45:57.440 There it is. 00:45:57.519 --> 00:46:01.199 Like you get some sort of attachment to that individual, I suppose. 00:46:01.360 --> 00:46:04.079 But you know, it really does turn into cults though. 00:46:04.239 --> 00:46:06.800 Like like the they have followers, you know. 00:46:06.880 --> 00:46:08.880 Like, I'm why do you view anybody like that? 00:46:08.960 --> 00:46:12.639 I just I I don't view any of the podcasters as people. 00:46:12.719 --> 00:46:27.679

I'm like, I'd like to go there to find out what I am gonna think about this issue or my approach to it or whatever, and I'm gonna then judge the other side that's on the other side of the faction because they don't agree with my podcaster, and it's they have groupies like the Grateful Dead. 00:46:28.079 --> 00:46:30.079 Yeah, it it is, it's actually a lot like a band. 00:46:30.320 --> 00:46:39.039 It really is a lot like a band in in a lot of ways, and it troubles me because it means like I don't like people buying into cults of personality in general, politicians, media figures, etc. 00:46:39.360 --> 00:46:42.079 And it seems like the conservatives do that an awful lot right now. 00:46:42.159 --> 00:46:46.079 I mean, the Fox News phenomenon for a long time has been that. 00:46:46.320 --> 00:46:51.440 You know, it's like there's these figures that you just like latch on to for whatever reason, and they end up hiring people. 00:46:51.519 --> 00:46:53.039 Like, I mean, Kaylee McEnaney, right? 00:46:53.119 --> 00:47:00.719 Like, like, why is she a person who is who is viewed as an analyst on TV so that Jake gets mad at her? 00:47:01.280 --> 00:47:10.480 Like, because the conservative movement uh liked her when she was the press secretary because she's an attractive young blonde who said things they agree with. 00:47:10.559 --> 00:47:12.559 Like, I hate to say it, but it's the case. 00:47:12.639 --> 00:47:15.280 So, like, go hire her, she'll make people happy. 00:47:15.440 --> 00:47:17.280 Like, I don't want to be made happy. 00:47:17.440 --> 00:47:27.360 I want truth, I want honesty, I want to be able to analyze this stuff to figure out what's really happening, and I want to move forward in a productive way, which I can't when I live in fantasy land. 00:47:27.519 --> 00:47:33.280 And we live in fantasy land because of this weird obsession with these like these these icons that are in the movement. 00:47:33.599 --> 00:47:35.760 It's gotta stop, but it I don't think will. 00:47:36.559 --> 00:47:36.880 No. 00:47:37.119 --> 00:47:37.920 No, I don't think it will. 00:47:38.159 --> 00:47:39.199 No, that's a happy thought. 00:47:39.519 --> 00:47:40.800 That's a happy thought. 00:47:41.199 --> 00:47:43.280 You just give it up, it's over, over, man. 00:47:43.760 --> 00:47:55.199 No, I don't I don't I don't think it's over, but I I I I'm not optimistic about 2028 because it doesn't feel like the various factions can get on the same page. 00:47:55.360 --> 00:47:59.360 Like the reality is you need a figure like Trump to bring everybody. 00:47:59.519 --> 00:48:03.920 Like he made the quote unquote big tent like even bigger than it's ever been, frankly. 00:48:04.000 --> 00:48:13.760 I mean, when you look at the numbers of like the the black men and Hispanics broadly, like the coalition that voted for him is unlike anything ever seen before, quite frankly. 00:48:14.000 --> 00:48:17.280 Um, certainly for the modern Republican Party. 00:48:17.760 --> 00:48:22.079 And I just don't know what how do you reconstruct that? 00:48:22.239 --> 00:48:24.000 How do you reconstruct that for 2028? 00:48:24.159 --> 00:48:24.880 I don't think you do. 00:48:25.039 --> 00:48:26.000 I don't think you can. 00:48:26.239 --> 00:48:30.320 But it does beg a question of can you reconstruct something else that would be as effective? 00:48:30.639 --> 00:48:41.599 And I think that's when you know the 28 election, when that primary happens, I mean, I don't know everybody who's gonna run, but I think it's fairly obvious that it's JD Vance, it's almost certainly Marco Rubio, you definitely have Ted Cruz in that mix. 00:48:41.679 --> 00:48:46.320 DeSantis, if you haven't been following him in the last 48 hours, that guy is going nuclear on everybody. 00:48:46.400 --> 00:48:48.800 He's everywhere, and he's basically like, yeah, Florida. 00:48:48.880 --> 00:48:50.480 You know, he's just doing that thing. 00:48:50.800 --> 00:48:53.760 So that's gonna be a really brutal primary. 00:48:53.920 --> 00:48:58.320 And there's real fundamental differences of opinion about like what the future of the country is. 00:48:58.480 --> 00:49:02.800 I mean, even things like economics, like JD Vance and Marco Rubio don't agree on economics. 00:49:02.960 --> 00:49:06.159 They don't they sort of appear to to dumb people, but they don't. 00:49:06.320 --> 00:49:07.119 They're not even close. 00:49:07.280 --> 00:49:11.440 So when they fight it out, people are gonna take sides and they're gonna really hate each other. 00:49:11.519 --> 00:49:14.320 And it's not gonna be, I don't think it's gonna be easy to stitch it back together. 00:49:14.559 --> 00:49:26.000 I feel like I feel like the reality is that the the message, the platform, the thing that Trump said he was going to do is worthy of rebuilding that coalition. 00:49:26.079 --> 00:49:30.800 The problem is that now like you can't use the terminology America first anymore. 00:49:30.960 --> 00:49:36.960 You gotta come up with a different I mean maybe you can, maybe it's not wholly lost, but the fact maybe you could mean it though. 00:49:37.119 --> 00:49:38.639 Yeah, right, maybe you could mean it. 00:49:38.719 --> 00:49:43.920 And and the and here's the thing is that like I guess from a foreign policy standpoint, I've always agreed with like quote unquote America first. 00:49:44.239 --> 00:49:47.760 But I like you, I really reject nationalism. 00:49:48.079 --> 00:50:05.920 But at some point, just being like a a a realist, if I see drug addicted people in my streets and needles everywhere, and nobody can afford anything, it's like well, maybe we should solve these problems here before we be worthy a little attention. 00:50:06.400 --> 00:50:09.440 Do anything else, you know, let's fix the problem here. 00:50:09.519 --> 00:50:12.639 And so I That's actually a very I don't mean to interrupt you, but that's a very good point. 00:50:12.800 --> 00:50:18.400 Like, you know, I said earlier that there's a case to be

made that like Iran was the right thing to do or something like that. 00:50:18.559 --> 00:50:25.599 But it's only really possible to make that case if you feel or if the voters feel like you're being responsive to the things they care about first. 00:50:25.679 --> 00:50:25.840 Right. 00:50:26.000 --> 00:50:29.519 And the things they care about first are their lives and how things feel to me. 00:50:29.679 --> 00:50:34.559 And if they feel generally satisfied with that, I mean, like you go back to the war on terror with George W. 00:50:34.719 --> 00:50:35.199 Bush, right? 00:50:35.280 --> 00:50:39.440 You you felt at that moment in time like things in America were going pretty decent. 00:50:39.519 --> 00:50:41.119 Like, you know, there's nothing that's really terrible. 00:50:41.199 --> 00:50:45.280 It was a decent time economically and socially, it wasn't that horrible. 00:50:45.440 --> 00:50:51.360 Uh, and then you had an obviously stark example of, you know, a terrorist attack in 9-11 and everything like that. 00:50:51.440 --> 00:50:53.519 So I think America was like, all right, yep, I'm good. 00:50:53.599 --> 00:50:55.519 Let's go, let's go do something, right? 00:50:55.599 --> 00:50:57.679 And and obviously that soured over time. 00:50:57.840 --> 00:51:06.880 I'm not suggesting otherwise, but I feel like that was one of the reasons why people were on board with it, because they felt like maybe everything wasn't solved at home, but like they felt like everything was kind of okay. 00:51:07.119 --> 00:51:10.880 It's clear in the last five or 10 years that people feel like things are not okay here. 00:51:11.039 --> 00:51:18.159 Yeah, it's crazy that like post-9-11 was probably the last time our country was actually enjoying some semblance of unity, too. 00:51:18.320 --> 00:51:19.440 Some, you know what I mean? 00:51:19.679 --> 00:51:21.519 It's a little togetherness, some solidarity. 00:51:21.840 --> 00:51:24.800 Yeah, because we're united, like all of a sudden we have this common enemy. 00:51:24.960 --> 00:51:25.679 You know what I mean? 00:51:25.760 --> 00:51:30.239 So we can unite against that enemy, and now we really just all hate each other. 00:51:30.400 --> 00:51:31.519 Yeah, it really does feel that way. 00:51:31.599 --> 00:51:34.719 It feels like it feels like Americans hate each other a lot. 00:51:34.960 --> 00:51:37.039 I think it feels like that because Americans do hate each other. 00:51:37.280 --> 00:51:40.000 Yes, Americans truly it's yeah, and that's kind of a scary thing to admit. 00:51:40.239 --> 00:51:40.880 It is, yeah. 00:51:40.960 --> 00:51:41.440 Yeah, yep. 00:51:41.519 --> 00:51:42.239 I think about it often. 00:51:42.320 --> 00:51:45.119 I'm like, wow, it's it is wild how much Americans hate each other. 00:51:45.360 --> 00:51:48.960 I mean, that has been that has been very apparent in the last 24 hours. 00:51:49.119 --> 00:51:51.280 Did you guys see that guy that went to Colin's office? 00:51:51.440 --> 00:51:54.079 Uh it was a I think it was a TikTok or something like that. 00:51:54.239 --> 00:51:59.039 I saw it somewhere, but it was some guy, and he's obviously like a Democratic Party candidate, gay guy or something like that. 00:51:59.199 --> 00:52:05.119 He walks in and he, I think he brings her like an application to to like Starbucks or something like that or whatever, anything. 00:52:05.360 --> 00:52:06.800 I hear she needs a job. 00:52:06.960 --> 00:52:09.840 Here's an application, like just trying to rub it in. 00:52:10.000 --> 00:52:12.800 Isn't that like, I mean, isn't that just like doesn't it? 00:52:12.960 --> 00:52:14.320 I don't know, it hurts my heart. 00:52:14.480 --> 00:52:21.039 It hurts my heart that somebody, I mean, she's been there for 30 years, whatever you think about her, even if you don't love her, like she's clearly a public servant. 00:52:21.199 --> 00:52:23.760 Like, I mean, she's been trying to do something for Maine in general. 00:52:23.840 --> 00:52:28.880 Like, she lost, she's already disappointed, she's already sad, she already did the speech, giving it up. 00:52:28.960 --> 00:52:30.320 You know, it's like it's over, man. 00:52:30.400 --> 00:52:30.960 You guys won. 00:52:31.039 --> 00:52:34.000 Like, you do not have to stick the knife in and twist it. 00:52:34.159 --> 00:52:39.280 And the fact that you want to, like that you have this impulse that's like, I'm gonna get her, you know, something like that. 00:52:39.360 --> 00:52:40.159 It's just such a stick. 00:52:40.400 --> 00:52:43.360 Stick for a hundred thousand likes on a yeah. 00:52:43.519 --> 00:52:52.800 I was gonna say, um, I mean, that that kind of stuff really reveals the hearts of those people, and and and then it subsequently reveals the hearts of the people who engage with it and like it as well. 00:52:52.960 --> 00:52:54.639 And we see that fairly often. 00:52:54.880 --> 00:52:56.159 I know, and it just seems like it's growing, though. 00:52:56.239 --> 00:52:56.960 Yeah, no, it is, yeah. 00:52:57.280 --> 00:52:59.760 It's the same people who cheerleaded Charlie Kirk's death. 00:52:59.920 --> 00:53:00.800 Well, right, exactly. 00:53:00.880 --> 00:53:06.719 That it's it's reveals the callousness and the darkness that pervades these people's hearts. 00:53:06.880 --> 00:53:10.800 And and it's it's I think it what's disturbing is how widespread it is now. 00:53:11.039 --> 00:53:13.599 Like it's truly it's common, you know. 00:53:13.840 --> 00:53:22.320 And that's why people are celebrating, yeah, like Charlie Kirk's assassination, um, the assassination of that um healthcare, the um Oh, the CEO guy. 00:53:22.400 --> 00:53:22.719 Yeah, yeah. 00:53:22.800 --> 00:53:24.800 Um things like they celebrate violence like that now. 00:53:24.880 --> 00:53:29.280 But there's yeah, but there's like a mean spirited spiritedness that I feel like has pervaded. 00:53:29.519 --> 00:53:31.679 Yeah, like you deserve what you're getting, you know, that kind of thing. 00:53:31.840 -->

00:53:32.000 Right. 00:53:32.079 --> 00:53:32.239 Yeah. 00:53:32.320 --> 00:53:35.360 And it's like to spite in this case, yeah, it's like to to spite her. 00:53:35.599 --> 00:53:49.360 And you know what the other thing too is, and this is maybe something to close with in general because we're coming up on an hour, but um I feel like that this, you know, we've been for obviously down on the on Trump, on the Republican Party, on the conservative movement and their performance in the last couple of years. 00:53:49.519 --> 00:54:02.800 But the funny thing about these types of events, like an election like this that happened the way that it did, is that it inevitably, it inevitably like uh inspires some kind of a backlash or response or whatnot. 00:54:02.960 --> 00:54:08.880 Like we have been experiencing for at least 20 years, if not more, the pendulum going back and forth repeatedly over time. 00:54:09.039 --> 00:54:15.199 I mean, you know, the whipsaw of going from Obama in 2008, winning everything. 00:54:15.360 --> 00:54:18.159 He had 60 senators when Arlen Specter switched over. 00:54:18.239 --> 00:54:23.119 He had 250-something seats in the House, he won 365 electoral votes. 00:54:23.280 --> 00:54:26.639 Like it was not like you shouldn't be a Republican in 2008. 00:54:26.719 --> 00:54:31.679 Like it's just a total decimation, total extinction level event, as DeSantis said this week. 00:54:31.840 --> 00:54:37.760 And then two years later, you have the Tea Party wave, 63 House seats fit fall to the Republicans, six Senate seats do. 00:54:37.920 --> 00:54:41.679 Like the whole country turns Republican, like like like two years later. 00:54:41.920 --> 00:54:44.719 And then two years after that, Obama gets re-elected. 00:54:44.960 --> 00:54:48.400 Two years after that, the Republicans take eight Senate seats, take back the U.S. 00:54:48.400 --> 00:54:50.480 Senate, take back like 20-something seats in the House. 00:54:50.719 --> 00:54:52.960 I mean, it's and then after that's Trump. 00:54:53.519 --> 00:54:56.320 And then Trump Biden, and then Biden back to Trump. 00:54:56.480 --> 00:55:06.800 And like I'm getting a little sick of this, but the reason why it happens is because now we're in this cycle where the people who won think that they won the argument. 00:55:06.960 --> 00:55:12.320 You know, like I think the Republicans thought they won the argument in 2024, that like we've defeated the left. 00:55:12.400 --> 00:55:18.800 Maybe not permanently necessarily, but like we like America agrees with us, and like we're just like they trust us, right? 00:55:18.880 --> 00:55:23.199 So they they I think arrogantly approached the next two years of how they governed. 00:55:23.280 --> 00:55:26.480 And I know that's what the Democrats did before, and I know that's what they're about to do. 00:55:26.639 --> 00:55:28.079 They have massive majorities here. 00:55:28.159 --> 00:55:34.079 I mean, you're talking about like, what is it, Jake, like 250 something house seats now, I think it is that Democrats have. 00:55:34.239 --> 00:55:36.800 Uh, give or take, like maybe 260 almost. 00:55:37.199 --> 00:55:39.199 Republicans are gonna be completely useless. 00:55:39.440 --> 00:55:42.480 Yeah, and there's like what 57 senators at the it's nuts. 00:55:42.559 --> 00:55:44.480 It's like a giant, giant, giant win. 00:55:44.800 --> 00:55:48.079 So they don't have to worry about losing votes like the Republicans did in the last couple of years. 00:55:48.239 --> 00:55:50.480 They can lose 20, 30 votes and still be fine. 00:55:50.559 --> 00:55:52.000 So they're gonna do whatever they want. 00:55:52.159 --> 00:56:01.280 I mean, they'll they'll impeach exeth, they'll like you know, like whatever, right out of the gate, and they will bite off more than they can chew, and they will make themselves look stupid and whatever else. 00:56:01.440 --> 00:56:08.079 And it will probably, I'm guessing, at some point, uh inspire Americans to be like, well, I guess those Republicans weren't so bad. 00:56:08.559 --> 00:56:13.599 Because they'll yeah, that'll yeah, there will be a response to the extreme measures that uh because it's undertaken. 00:56:13.920 --> 00:56:30.000 The only way you can explain this because they hate, they hate or hate past tense, the Democrats, they despised what they got out of that uh governing coalition just a couple years ago, but now they get a resounding win, like where they trust them now and they like their agenda. 00:56:30.159 --> 00:56:34.480 Like, no, they don't, they just reject what they just saw in leadership for the last two years. 00:56:34.559 --> 00:56:36.880 Yeah, and you're the only other option, so okay. 00:56:37.039 --> 00:56:38.159 And that's what we've been doing. 00:56:38.320 --> 00:56:42.960 It's basically like you suck, I'm going with the other guy back and forth every two years. 00:56:43.679 --> 00:56:54.559 Yeah, what I my my uh message of hope would be the next two years at the federal level are so clearly going to be mired in trying to impeach Donald Trump. 00:56:54.880 --> 00:56:58.880 I also think that really, I mean, maybe I'm wrong. 00:56:59.039 --> 00:57:07.280 I consume a lot of media, but I didn't hear uh like an articulated plan for anything, fixing anything. 00:57:07.440 --> 00:57:17.519 It was basically just Orange Man really bad this time because he started a war, uh which was an easy sentiment to to to you know agree with. 00:57:17.920 --> 00:57:20.239 Um but I haven't heard an articulable plan. 00:57:20.400 --> 00:57:28.480 I haven't seen Chuck Schumer saying uh we're ending the war in Iran, first first, first order of business. 00:57:28.880 --> 00:57:35.599 Uh I haven't heard anybody talk about trying to end foreign entanglements and things that people just voted against. 00:57:36.159 --> 00:57:41.119 Uh I haven't heard an articulated plan for how we're gonna reduce the cost of energy. 00:57:41.360 --> 00:57:55.519 I uh the same people who we just uh supported,

I mean uh voted for, have been supporting a lot of the same things in terms of votes that Republicans just got slapped across the face for. 00:57:55.920 --> 00:58:01.039 So I'm just not sure how that really changes in the next two years. 00:58:01.199 --> 00:58:26.880 And so I can I can see a world where in 2028 obviously it's gonna be a big big presidential election, but I can see the pendulum swinging back the other way because I don't think there's going to necessarily be a big change of scenery in terms of what federal policy looks like, and I think all of the time and attention that Democrats uh will get now that they're quote unquote in charge is going to be used persecuting Trump. 00:58:27.199 --> 00:58:32.239 And so that makes me feel good that they're not really going to accomplish much in the next two years. 00:58:33.119 --> 00:58:35.039 Well, I think there's no doubt they're not going to accomplish much. 00:58:35.119 --> 00:58:48.880 I think the twenty-eight question will be once again, does the like the does things not being satisfactory to people and not a lot is being accomplished go for blame to Trump or to the new Democratic majority? 00:58:49.119 --> 00:58:50.719 Like who do they view as the villain? 00:58:50.960 --> 00:58:57.519 And if they view Trump as the villain still, then that doesn't bode well for whoever the Republican nominee is, especially if it's Vance. 00:58:57.760 --> 00:58:59.280 Because I mean, but Rubio too. 00:58:59.360 --> 00:59:06.000 I mean, Rubio's secretary of state in this administration, so obviously that's not a a connection that he probably will love if people are blaming Trump for stuff. 00:59:06.079 --> 00:59:14.239 But if they blame the Democrats for being buffoons, which they almost certainly will be, then that makes it much more likely that Republicans end up retaining the White House. 00:59:14.320 --> 00:59:15.760 So I don't I don't know how it'll go. 00:59:15.920 --> 00:59:20.639 Um, I just know that whenever it all settles out, eventually the other side will win. 00:59:20.719 --> 00:59:21.679 It's just the way that it works. 00:59:21.760 --> 00:59:22.559 I mean, like in Maine, right? 00:59:22.639 --> 00:59:28.000 Like we talked about Maine a lot or in the early part of the podcast, but Pingry wins by 17 and a half points. 00:59:28.159 --> 00:59:35.199 There's gonna be like what, 87, 88 house seats that are Democrats, um, and then uh 23, I think, for the Senate. 00:59:35.360 --> 00:59:38.239 So it's a pretty bad situation for the Republicans. 00:59:38.320 --> 00:59:45.119 And I could 100% see the next election having the Republicans sweep both house in the Senate. 00:59:45.199 --> 00:59:46.159 Like I can totally see it. 00:59:46.239 --> 00:59:55.599 And then you got Governor Governor Pingry with a hostile Republican majority in the House and the Senate, uh, or at least one of the two, um, probably the House more than the Senate, but it's entirely possible. 00:59:55.760 --> 00:59:56.239 Is it likely? 00:59:56.320 --> 00:59:59.360 I don't know, but like it's that's the kind of world we live in right now. 00:59:59.519 --> 01:00:11.360 And I was saying this entire election cycle, if this was Kamala Harris's midterm, it's almost I mean, I don't know what she would have done about Iran or whatever, but I'm not I don't believe that people would have been terribly happy with their lives if she was still president and whatnot. 01:00:11.440 --> 01:00:14.719 So she probably would have had a very strong reaction in the other direction. 01:00:14.880 --> 01:00:19.679 Republicans would have picked up seats and whatever, but that's not what happened because Trump won. 01:00:19.760 --> 01:00:25.360 So it's actually made me wonder what what life would be like if Ron DeSantis had actually become president, you know. 01:00:25.840 --> 01:00:27.280 What would the reality look like? 01:00:27.679 --> 01:00:30.719 I don't think it would matter who the president was. 01:00:31.039 --> 01:00:36.480 I think we'd I think the I'm I'm I'm on a foreign policy standpoint. 01:00:36.559 --> 01:00:40.159 I kind of believe in the whole like it's kind of a one great big uniparty thing. 01:00:40.320 --> 01:00:50.880 I don't I don't necessarily believe that on economic policy stuff, but like what is the what is somebody articulate to me the foreign policy difference between Chuck Schumer and Susan Collins? 01:00:51.119 --> 01:00:51.840 I'll wait. 01:00:52.719 --> 01:00:54.239 I I don't really think there is one. 01:00:54.880 --> 01:01:03.920 Do you guys think that the uh Democrats aren't gonna be super effective or get stuff done because, like you said, they don't have a plan, Jake, or is it because Trump's president? 01:01:04.480 --> 01:01:05.119 I think it's both. 01:01:05.280 --> 01:01:09.760 I think they're I think they're just gonna spend so much time going after the guy, like they did investigation there. 01:01:10.079 --> 01:01:10.320 I see. 01:01:10.480 --> 01:01:10.639 Okay. 01:01:10.880 --> 01:01:11.519 Yeah, yeah. 01:01:11.840 --> 01:01:24.000 Yeah, whereas in my mind, I'm like, I'm like, is this their uh gonna be their opportunity to try to push through some of their, you know, um, I don't know, their their lofty kind of like pass Medicare for all or something. 01:01:24.159 --> 01:01:25.840 I was gonna say Medicare for all or things like that. 01:01:26.079 --> 01:01:30.000 Yeah, I mean they probably could at this point with the number of votes they have for DSA folks and everything else. 01:01:30.079 --> 01:01:31.199 They probably could pass that. 01:01:31.360 --> 01:01:33.840 Now, here's my question is like, does Trump sign it? 01:01:34.079 --> 01:01:57.119 That's see, that's the thing that really has always bugged me about him is I do not believe he is an ally on size and scope of government spending, right, you know, like like appropriateness of government interference in an in a uh in an industry, just because he's clearly indicated over the course of all 10

plus years that he's been, you know, in the the limelight that he really doesn't care about those things. 01:01:57.280 --> 01:02:00.719 They've just been sort of uh secondary or third concerns of his. 01:02:00.960 --> 01:02:10.000 And you know, I remember he ran for president in 2016 saying he was gonna have a like nationalized healthcare system, and Republicans didn't care, and I could not believe that they didn't care. 01:02:10.159 --> 01:02:10.559 He said that. 01:02:10.719 --> 01:02:11.599 It was only 60 minutes. 01:02:11.679 --> 01:02:13.840 Like he gave it as an interview, man, and like nobody cared about it. 01:02:14.079 --> 01:02:18.960 The 3D chess play would be to sign it and then watch the whole thing buckle under its own weight. 01:02:19.760 --> 01:02:21.199 Then you then you get a red wave. 01:02:21.440 --> 01:02:23.199 Yeah, yeah, that's that's definitely worth it. 01:02:23.360 --> 01:02:27.119 Bankrupt the country just so we can get a red wave, and then once the red wave happens, have them do nothing. 01:02:27.199 --> 01:02:27.840 That's fantastic. 01:02:28.079 --> 01:02:30.880 What's your diagnosis for the next two years, Emily? 01:02:31.440 --> 01:02:36.800 I think they're gonna try to impeach Trump, so I don't think like immediately, or do you think they'll wait a little bit? 01:02:36.960 --> 01:02:39.119 Like, do they know that it's a stupid idea to do that? 01:02:39.199 --> 01:02:40.800 And then I think immediately. 01:02:41.039 --> 01:02:42.559 I don't think they can wait. 01:02:42.800 --> 01:02:43.920 I don't think they want to wait. 01:02:44.159 --> 01:02:48.400 Yeah, they're there there there was somebody from California, I forget, who won. 01:02:48.480 --> 01:02:55.360 Uh, who like their first upon being declared the winner tweeted like lawyer up or something like that. 01:02:55.519 --> 01:02:56.239 You know what I mean? 01:02:56.320 --> 01:03:01.679 So see, I think that they will get they'll try to go after him, but I think it they'll they'll do it a little slower. 01:03:01.840 --> 01:03:07.199 I think that they're smart enough to know that they'll look really cheap and pathetic if they go after him like tomorrow. 01:03:07.360 --> 01:03:09.280 But they are gonna start with exeth, I think. 01:03:09.360 --> 01:03:16.800 I think they're gonna do an impeachment of exeth like right now, which is why I think Trump's talking about firing him if you've if you've seen that kind of stuff happening recently. 01:03:16.960 --> 01:03:22.960 So do you think you said that you th uh it'll be it would be a really stupid idea for them to impeach Trump? 01:03:23.199 --> 01:03:23.440 Yeah. 01:03:23.679 --> 01:03:25.679 So what in in your estimation, why? 01:03:25.920 --> 01:03:28.719 I think it would just look like I mean I think it'd be an optics thing. 01:03:28.880 --> 01:03:29.199 I think so. 01:03:29.280 --> 01:03:34.320 I think the American people as a whole are really sick of the whole Hatfield McCoy thing. 01:03:34.400 --> 01:03:37.280 Like they're just they're done with the backbiting, stupid BS. 01:03:37.440 --> 01:03:41.199 Like it was the thing people liked the least about the ads and the campaigns and all this other stuff. 01:03:41.280 --> 01:03:42.639 Like, I think they just are they're over it. 01:03:42.800 --> 01:03:48.079 So if you immediately come out of the gate and you're like, I'm going after my political enemies, like I think you just look stupid. 01:03:48.320 --> 01:03:49.679 And they've already done it a couple times. 01:03:49.760 --> 01:03:51.119 They've already tried tried to. 01:03:51.360 --> 01:03:53.280 I don't think they can help themselves to Emily's point. 01:03:53.360 --> 01:03:55.599 I think that they're they just bloodthirsty. 01:03:55.920 --> 01:04:01.280 Whether it's six months from now or it's next week or whenever it happens, I think they do do it. 01:04:01.360 --> 01:04:01.679 Yeah. 01:04:02.400 --> 01:04:02.639 Yeah. 01:04:02.800 --> 01:04:07.280 High crimes and misdemeanors, get him out of office, which by the way would also be stupid if they actually succeeded. 01:04:07.440 --> 01:04:10.960 Like you're gonna make JD Vance president in advance of the next presidential election. 01:04:11.039 --> 01:04:11.920 Like, why would you want to do that? 01:04:12.239 --> 01:04:13.039 Yeah, yeah. 01:04:13.199 --> 01:04:17.360 But and then they'll probably say, like, we know we need to remove the felon from office stat. 01:04:17.679 --> 01:04:19.199 So, like, whatever, things like that. 01:04:19.360 --> 01:04:33.360 I mean, like you said, Jake, you we we should be we should assume that they have no plan because they probably don't, because all they have is an arsenal of slogans, they have an arsenal of bumper stickers, and that's that's basically it. 01:04:33.440 --> 01:04:37.519 It's just the one-liners that they pair it out almost mindlessly. 01:04:37.760 --> 01:04:48.800 Um, so that's why yeah, I'm not convinced that they necessarily have a plan, but it I feel like it is reasonable to assume that they might still try to pass uh their more, yeah, like I said, like lofty. 01:04:50.639 --> 01:04:53.519 So let's let's end on something happy since we are coming up on our time now. 01:04:53.599 --> 01:04:57.280 Um, and maybe the positive thing that happened this election. 01:04:57.360 --> 01:04:58.320 I mean, there's actually a couple. 01:04:58.480 --> 01:05:00.639 Like, I don't know if you guys saw the Bangor City Council. 01:05:00.719 --> 01:05:04.320 Like they elected a slate of three conservatives to like clean up Bangor. 01:05:04.480 --> 01:05:07.599 It was like, well, that didn't see that coming on my bingo card. 01:05:07.760 --> 01:05:09.840 Um, but Paula Page has to be mentioned. 01:05:09.920 --> 01:05:11.440 I mean, we have barely talked about him at all. 01:05:11.519 --> 01:05:20.079 Like, and I know that he uh he won and we briefly mentioned that, but he is the only person in America who took a blue seat and turned it red this year.

01:05:20.239 --> 01:05:22.159 He's the one, the only guy. 01:05:22.400 --> 01:05:23.760 Uh, how did he do that? 01:05:23.840 --> 01:05:28.719 And like, does it mean anything like about maybe like the brand and how you sell yourself or something like that? 01:05:28.880 --> 01:05:34.400 I mean, I I I know Matt Dunlap was not a terribly inspiring candidate, but there, you know, neither was Troy Jackson. 01:05:34.480 --> 01:05:36.800 And Troy Jackson ended up sweeping Susan Collins. 01:05:36.880 --> 01:05:39.119 So how did he withstand the wave? 01:05:39.280 --> 01:05:43.519 Because he had a hundred and thirty-foot seawall instead of hundred and hundred and uh twenty. 01:05:44.000 --> 01:05:59.760 I think I think it's I think it's the district, but like Golden had defied the odds to win the seat and retain the seat because of who he was and how he voted and how he carried himself very much. 01:06:00.159 --> 01:06:02.000 As a regular everyday manner. 01:06:02.400 --> 01:06:13.599 And uh but he didn't I mean not that his voting didn't necessarily represent the district, but like his party didn't represent the district who they are. 01:06:13.760 --> 01:06:18.320 And so I think But it was an eight-point democratic swing. 01:06:18.559 --> 01:06:20.320 Yeah, no, there's there's no doubt about that. 01:06:20.400 --> 01:06:26.719 But I think I just to me it's like l the LaPage victory like just sets that right. 01:06:27.199 --> 01:06:31.440 It's like if you're so hits the reset button on the district a lot. 01:06:31.599 --> 01:06:42.320 Yeah, yeah, it hits the reset button on the district because Golden did something that he's a uni he's he's very Susan Collins-y in terms of like how he governs or how he votes on behalf of main people. 01:06:42.559 --> 01:06:51.440 He wasn't afraid to poke his own party in the eye, and he showed people that yeah, I might have this D next to my name, but that doesn't define, you know, how I'm gonna vote. 01:06:51.599 --> 01:06:57.280 And I I think it was obviously very unique his substack and the way that he reasoned things to Mainers and yada yet. 01:06:57.360 --> 01:07:05.920 So to me, it's like uh I'm not sure, and I'm there's probably people associated with the campaign who would say that they, you know, did things that have never been done before or something like that. 01:07:06.000 --> 01:07:16.159 But I at the end of the day, I just feel like that was the reset button that the uh second congressional district needed in general, just to quote unquote go back to normal. 01:07:16.320 --> 01:07:17.679 Like that's how it should be. 01:07:17.760 --> 01:07:22.559 If you look at the numbers in that district, in a really good democratic year, it should be hard to win. 01:07:22.639 --> 01:07:23.360 You know what I mean? 01:07:23.440 --> 01:07:29.920 So Golden, let's be honest, if Golden didn't step down, I I I don't care if it was Paula Page, I don't think he would have won. 01:07:30.079 --> 01:07:30.639 You know what I mean? 01:07:30.719 --> 01:07:37.599 Is the fact that it was Paul LePage in that district where he is so beloved, I think that's that's what it was. 01:07:37.679 --> 01:07:39.360 He just set it back to how it should have been. 01:07:39.519 --> 01:07:44.719 I don't think that if he ran against Jared Golden, I do not think that campaign would have won. 01:07:44.800 --> 01:07:54.079 And maybe that's wrong or naive of me, and maybe I should be more hopeful, but I I mean Golden already proved that there would be that there were Republicans who voted for him. 01:07:54.159 --> 01:07:54.719 You know what I mean? 01:07:54.800 --> 01:08:00.800 They liked his military background, or they liked that he just gave it to him straight, even if he didn't agree with him a hundred percent of the time. 01:08:01.039 --> 01:08:02.320 He was a likable guy. 01:08:02.480 --> 01:08:18.079 So uh I think I think that just resets a district, puts it back to normal, puts it back to how it should be, and Democrats would have to have a even bigger tsunami to to to truly flip it, or have a really unique candidate again like like Jared Golden in the future. 01:08:20.079 --> 01:08:24.319 Any other feedback on the LePage victory from uh the peanut gallery? 01:08:25.279 --> 01:08:27.439 I had a thought, but I I've I've lost it. 01:08:27.760 --> 01:08:31.039 And I don't mean I don't I don't say that as a means to like I'm so glad. 01:08:31.279 --> 01:08:34.880 Like I I didn't agree with everything that Golden did. 01:08:34.960 --> 01:08:40.720 I'd way rather have a golden-y type politician in that seat than a Troy Jackson-y type politician in that seat. 01:08:40.800 --> 01:08:47.520 I would obviously way rather from an ideological standpoint have uh LePage in Congress representing the the district. 01:08:47.840 --> 01:08:54.479 It's no small feat that he is the lone place in the whole country where that change made. 01:08:54.800 --> 01:09:04.720 Uh I I I I do think that if you look at Collins' numbers and LePage's numbers, particularly in the second district, it does show that Republicans did very well there. 01:09:04.800 --> 01:09:08.079 They turned out the voters that they needed to turn out there on the whole. 01:09:08.399 --> 01:09:18.399 Um obviously it wasn't enough to to to to carry the day for everyone or to change the tides um throughout the course of what happened uh, you know, with the legislative seats. 01:09:18.560 --> 01:09:19.680 So it's impressive. 01:09:20.159 --> 01:09:21.920 I don't mean to say that it's not. 01:09:22.000 --> 01:09:25.520 Um I just to me it's like that's what that district should be anyway. 01:09:25.600 --> 01:09:26.640 That's its default. 01:09:26.960 --> 01:09:29.199 Yeah, I do think that LePage does deserve credit. 01:09:29.279 --> 01:09:31.680 I mean, like he was pretty disciplined, he didn't really mess up. 01:09:31.840 --> 01:09:37.680 I mean, there was a little bit of a kerfuffle around the whole Florida thing, you know, and whether he's a resident

of Florida and all that stuff. 01:09:37.760 --> 01:09:40.000 They got kind of the old LePage back up again a little bit. 01:09:40.079 --> 01:09:42.479 He got his back up against the wall, got a little salty there. 01:09:42.560 --> 01:09:43.199 I like that. 01:09:43.359 --> 01:09:48.640 But generally, he kind of kept his nose down and he did he did the good campaign work that you have to do to win a race like that. 01:09:48.800 --> 01:09:53.760 He actually had some, believe it or not, pretty decent commercials and you know, like it was it was a good campaign. 01:09:53.920 --> 01:09:57.680 I think that if that was Terry, I think Dunlap wins. 01:09:57.760 --> 01:09:58.000 Yeah. 01:09:58.159 --> 01:09:58.479 I do. 01:09:58.560 --> 01:10:05.840 I think if it was not Paul LePage, I think that it would have been um potentially one that got wiped away um with the rest, which is not a statement on terror. 01:10:06.399 --> 01:10:07.119 What if it was Golden? 01:10:07.199 --> 01:10:07.840 What do you think happens? 01:10:08.000 --> 01:10:09.840 If it's Golden versus LePage, I think Golden wins. 01:10:09.920 --> 01:10:10.479 Yeah, I do. 01:10:10.560 --> 01:10:13.760 Not because Paul's not a good candidate or it wouldn't work, it's just the wrong year. 01:10:13.920 --> 01:10:27.920 I think if you had somebody who had the durability of surviving 24, you know, and and and uh Trump winning so well and still winning in that district, certainly in a D plus 8.5 year, you would think that he would be in a good position to be able to get re-elected. 01:10:28.079 --> 01:10:28.159 Right. 01:10:28.319 --> 01:10:31.279 Wouldn't guarantee it, but I I think he'd be the odds-on favorite for sure. 01:10:31.359 --> 01:10:34.960 Um, but with it being Dunlap, I mean Dunlap was just a he was a dead fish. 01:10:35.039 --> 01:10:39.119 I mean, he he did absolutely nothing that was inspiring at all to anybody. 01:10:39.279 --> 01:10:41.760 I don't think the Democrats were really all that excited about him. 01:10:41.920 --> 01:10:43.359 I don't know if that's just my perception. 01:10:43.760 --> 01:10:48.399 I also I and to be honest, like on a human level, I I very much like Matt Dunlap. 01:10:48.560 --> 01:10:56.399 I would agree with you that he didn't run a very inspired like the whole campaign was you lived in Florida for a few years after you left being governor. 01:10:56.479 --> 01:10:58.880 Uh, and that's not terribly inspiring. 01:10:59.119 --> 01:11:06.239 I would agree with you that LaPage ran a much better campaign for this seat than he did in 22. 01:11:06.479 --> 01:11:07.439 Yeah, yeah, for governor. 01:11:07.600 --> 01:11:13.920 Like that that campaign was marred by like not uh just confronting the abortion issue head on. 01:11:14.000 --> 01:11:18.079 It was like he avoided it like the plague, you know what I mean? 01:11:18.159 --> 01:11:21.199 And then when he had a chance and made an answer, it wasn't good. 01:11:21.279 --> 01:11:27.279 He kind of fumbled over it and and and it just wasn't sound, and uh there was nothing like that. 01:11:27.359 --> 01:11:37.760 And he was very disciplined and on message, and sometimes uh when the district has your back from like a registration standpoint like that, it is as simple as just not making a mistake. 01:11:37.920 --> 01:11:38.880 Yeah, you know what I mean? 01:11:39.039 --> 01:11:43.119 I think that's that's that's that's that was the Hannah Pingry strategy. 01:11:43.279 --> 01:11:43.680 Yeah. 01:11:43.920 --> 01:11:48.239 She just waited it out, playing a little pre-vent defense there, and it worked like a charm for her. 01:11:48.479 --> 01:11:58.159 I'm surprised that, and I mean I didn't see this, but I'm surprised that Dunlap never used the subject of abortion against against LaPage in this whole race. 01:11:58.399 --> 01:11:59.119 I don't think, did he? 01:11:59.520 --> 01:12:03.760 I mean, he might have, but I didn't follow, I mean, I wasn't in district, so I couldn't see the the media or whatever. 01:12:04.079 --> 01:12:04.720 Yeah, me neither, yeah. 01:12:04.800 --> 01:12:11.600 But in even in the debates or but I do know that it's probably uncomfortable for him to do that because I think he used to be pro-life, didn't he? 01:12:11.680 --> 01:12:13.439 Like I think when he was a state lawmaker, like way. 01:12:13.840 --> 01:12:22.399 It used to be actually common, believe it or not, that Democrats in Maine would be pro-life and that Republicans would be pro-choice. 01:12:22.560 --> 01:12:24.640 Like back in the McKernan v. 01:12:25.439 --> 01:12:32.159 Uh Brennan uh race back in 1986 or 90, I think it was his real act. 01:12:32.319 --> 01:12:34.159 It was 1990, so a long time ago. 01:12:34.319 --> 01:12:37.520 And you can find information about this on Mainepoliticaldata.com. 01:12:37.840 --> 01:12:49.119 Um that was I saw some commercials once, and it was McKernan running like uh Brennan is it was a pro-lifer ads like against him. 01:12:49.199 --> 01:12:50.640 Like Brennan's a pro-lifer. 01:12:50.720 --> 01:12:52.159 I defend a woman's right to choose. 01:12:52.239 --> 01:12:55.359 And I'm like, you know, looking at it today, you're like, whoa, that's wild. 01:12:55.600 --> 01:12:59.279 That is not the modern Democratic or the Republican Party right now. 01:12:59.680 --> 01:13:00.479 Totally inverse now. 01:13:00.720 --> 01:13:01.520 Absolutely crazy. 01:13:01.680 --> 01:13:06.560 So I didn't I think Dunlap used to be sort of over there, and I don't I don't know if he wants to really talk about that. 01:13:06.640 --> 01:13:07.119 Yeah, yeah. 01:13:07.359 --> 01:13:17.600 I saw I saw a video like that that was uh Obama on the 08 campaign stump talking about immigration, and it was just like, God, I can't believe that was like 15 years ago, 20 years. 01:13:18.000 --> 01:13:18.239 Dude, yeah. 01:13:18.319 --> 01:13:19.600 I was talking to Alan about that again. 01:13:19.920 --> 01:13:38.479 Like, I know that we've talked about on this podcast, but it really is wild that just 15 years ago, you could hear, you know, some of the some of the most popular or you know big time Democrats sound like quote unquote radical right wingers to in today's standards in terms of like immigration, gay marriage. 01:13:38.640 --> 01:13:47.680 Um yeah, those those issues, like they're they were very much they to today they would be described as right-wing extremists for their views. 01:13:47.760 --> 01:13:49.199 And that was only 15 years ago. 01:13:49.279 --> 01:13:52.800 It wasn't twenty, it wasn't 50, it was 15 years. 01:13:52.880 --> 01:13:53.119 Right. 01:13:53.279 --> 01:13:54.239 That's wild. 01:13:54.560 --> 01:13:55.279 Yeah, it is. 01:13:55.439 --> 01:13:55.760 All right. 01:13:55.840 --> 01:13:58.319 Well, I think that's about it for us, ladies and gentlemen. 01:13:58.479 --> 01:14:00.079 Emily, Garrick, and Jake. 01:14:00.159 --> 01:14:01.600 Nice to have you here as usual. 01:14:01.840 --> 01:14:03.119 We will be back again next week. 01:14:03.199 --> 01:14:08.319 And I think now we will have dispensed fully with all election-related stuff because we've done our post-election roundup here. 01:14:08.479 --> 01:14:10.560 So back to what do they do next? 01:14:10.720 --> 01:14:10.960 Right? 01:14:11.119 --> 01:14:12.640 Like we're gonna have a new legislature. 01:14:12.880 --> 01:14:15.359 Jake, there's plenty of stuff to talk about there, isn't it? 01:14:15.520 --> 01:14:16.720 There's no doubt about it. 01:14:16.880 --> 01:14:20.640 So we'll get to all that and more uh next week on the Pine Tree Pulse. 01:14:22.159 --> 01:14:24.560 This has been Pine Tree Paul. 01:14:25.600 --> 01:14:30.319 Disrupting the main political machine, one podcast at a time. 01:14:30.800 --> 01:14:33.840 Visit mainpolicy.org to learn more. 01:14:33.920 --> 01:14:37.279 Or follow the main policy institute on social media. 01:14:37.439 --> 01:14:38.399 Thanks for listening. 01:14:38.479 --> 01:14:41.439 And make sure to join us again next time.