Transcrição completa de Final Election Predictions 2026

went to vote at like 6 p.m. 00:02:08.400 --> 00:02:10.560 I was like, oh my god, I've got to get out of here. 00:02:10.879 --> 00:02:15.280 So I think then, yeah, it must have been 2022 because in 2024 I was like just doing it early. 00:02:15.360 --> 00:02:15.840 I'm going in. 00:02:15.919 --> 00:02:16.400 I'm just going in. 00:02:16.719 --> 00:02:17.840 Because I think you're gonna be out of town. 00:02:18.000 --> 00:02:18.639 Oh no, no, no. 00:02:18.719 --> 00:02:19.599 That was this obviously that was this. 00:02:19.919 --> 00:02:22.000 That was this last year for the primary, I think. 00:02:22.240 --> 00:02:22.479 Yes. 00:02:22.719 --> 00:02:24.159 Yeah, I voted, I voted early for that. 00:02:24.400 --> 00:02:24.719 That's right. 00:02:24.879 --> 00:02:25.120 That's right. 00:02:25.199 --> 00:02:26.159 Yeah, whatever. 00:02:26.319 --> 00:02:35.199 So whether you vote early, whether you vote often, or whether you vote on election day, um, we've got a bunch of marquee races to go over here, and none bigger than the U.S. 00:02:35.280 --> 00:02:40.719 Senate race, which is what's causing Garrick and me so much uh consternation because it's on our TV all the time. 00:02:40.960 --> 00:02:43.280 Uh, most public polls are now showing this. 00:02:43.439 --> 00:02:45.199 I think Tujia showed a tide. 00:02:45.280 --> 00:02:47.280 Uh, a couple of them had Jackson up too. 00:02:47.360 --> 00:02:49.919 I mean, it's all within the margin of error, so it's more or less tied. 00:02:50.000 --> 00:02:56.319 I've uh heard from people that internals are showing almost exactly the same thing. 00:02:56.560 --> 00:03:00.000 So the campaigns think the same thing that the public polls are showing. 00:03:00.240 --> 00:03:01.199 What do you think? 00:03:01.439 --> 00:03:02.560 You have to make a prediction. 00:03:02.800 --> 00:03:03.840 Nobody gets out of this. 00:03:04.400 --> 00:03:07.520 I want not only a winner-loser, I want a margin. 00:03:07.599 --> 00:03:10.879 Oh, you don't have to give me the exact numbers, right? 00:03:10.960 --> 00:03:17.199 But you got to give me a plus two, plus three, something that tells me how much whoever is gonna win is gonna win by. 00:03:17.520 --> 00:03:18.159 I'll go last. 00:03:18.560 --> 00:03:19.199 I'll go last. 00:03:19.680 --> 00:03:21.280 Collins plus three. 00:03:21.520 --> 00:03:28.879 Okay, so Montana's throwing down the flag on Collins plus three as they sit there terrified of making an answer here. 00:03:29.039 --> 00:03:30.960 You explain to me why it's Collins plus three. 00:03:31.199 --> 00:03:42.000 I I I I think that a lot of the polls showing it's even should be slightly worrying for the Jackson campaign, considering how she always overperforms in polls. 00:03:42.159 --> 00:03:47.120 There are a lot of people going with the whole, like, oh, it's gonna be another Gideon plus eight, plus nine. 00:03:47.360 --> 00:03:48.560 I'm yeah by that. 00:03:48.800 --> 00:03:50.479 I'm not quite that optimistic. 00:03:50.639 --> 00:03:55.599 I think that there is quite like the galvanization of around the left. 00:03:55.759 --> 00:04:07.039 So I I I think that there is certainly a margin for Collins to win here, but it will not be this blowout that a lot of people think, you know, that it will be just off of prior polling data. 00:04:07.280 --> 00:04:15.280 So I I kind of was splitting the difference between the it's dead tide and the eight-point blowout that a lot of people say it would be. 00:04:15.360 --> 00:04:20.639 So like a plus four, but then I'm a little cynical, so I took one point away to a plus three. 00:04:20.800 --> 00:04:21.199 Yep. 00:04:21.360 --> 00:04:21.759 All right. 00:04:21.920 --> 00:04:23.040 That was my strategy. 00:04:23.120 --> 00:04:31.439 And then I I am gonna also say that I think there will actually be probably about like one percent of people that do go for like write-in candidates, even if it's not a declared Raiden. 00:04:31.839 --> 00:04:33.279 Like if it might be for platinum or whatever. 00:04:33.439 --> 00:04:34.959 But it won't be enough to trigger RCV. 00:04:35.120 --> 00:04:35.279 Right. 00:04:35.360 --> 00:04:40.160 That's my my I'm saying like 5148.1, something like that. 00:04:40.399 --> 00:04:42.319 Like that's roughly what I'm saying. 00:04:42.480 --> 00:04:43.680 Like 50 and a half or something like that. 00:04:44.000 --> 00:04:44.399 Right, right. 00:04:44.480 --> 00:04:49.439 Like she's just over RCV and Jackson a little lower because of the Raiden's. 00:04:49.680 --> 00:04:50.480 All right, there you go. 00:04:50.560 --> 00:04:56.959 And speaking of RCV, by the way, it cannot go without mentioning that there's a brand new ranked choice voting report out by the Maine Policy Institute. 00:04:57.040 --> 00:05:00.240 Montana Towers worked on that a long time, and it's awesome. 00:05:00.319 --> 00:05:02.879 So go check it out at Maine Policy.org. 00:05:03.199 --> 00:05:15.920 If you want to learn 16 different reasons why ranked choice voting is a trash system, then Garrick's been trying to figure out a way all week to make the 16 reasons we hate RCV connect to the 16 counties of Maine. 00:05:16.319 --> 00:05:17.279 Yeah, there's one for each county. 00:05:17.519 --> 00:05:18.800 16 reasons why it sucks. 00:05:19.920 --> 00:05:21.199 It's exactly what I want to do. 00:05:21.439 --> 00:05:25.519 We haven't gotten it fine, you know, fine-tuned yet, but you know, it might be in the works. 00:05:25.680 --> 00:05:32.000 Yeah, it's just like what a what a lovely coincidence that there's there's one reason for every county in the state of Maine. 00:05:32.079 --> 00:05:34.560 So yeah, I I I uh see a jingle coming up. 00:05:34.879 --> 00:05:35.120 Indeed. 00:05:35.360 --> 00:05:37.920 All right, well, now you've tried to get yourself out of giving me a prediction. 00:05:38.000 --> 00:05:40.639 So what is Garrick Hoffman's prediction? 00:05:40.879 --> 00:05:41.360 You know what? 00:05:41.519 --> 00:05:48.560 I'm gonna um I'm gonna

one up Montana and go with uh with no confidence at all. 00:05:48.639 --> 00:05:55.199 I'm gonna go Collins plus five because when we uh So here's the thing. 00:05:56.000 --> 00:06:00.480 I just want to point out two people who I assume are voting for Collins think Collins is gonna win. 00:06:00.639 --> 00:06:05.040 Is there any bias in your in your predictions here, gentlemen? 00:06:05.360 --> 00:06:12.319 My because if we did this podcast with the main people's alliance or the main center for economic policy, I'm guessing they'd be like, well, I think it's Troy Jackson by three. 00:06:12.560 --> 00:06:14.639 Wait till we get to the governor predictions, though. 00:06:14.959 --> 00:06:15.279 Okay. 00:06:16.000 --> 00:06:43.600 And I and I know that I could be absolutely radically off, but I I can't help but you know, think about the last race with Collins and Sarah Gideon and how much Collins just destroyed her at a time when like there was it's like if you think that there's a lot of vitriol for for Susan Collins right now, like I really don't know how if it's really any worse than during the time with Sarah Gideon, because that was on the heels of the Kavanaugh vote, you know, like or like shortly thereafter. 00:06:43.680 --> 00:06:47.040 Yeah, and she still blew Sarah Gideon way out of the water. 00:06:47.279 --> 00:06:53.920 And so I'm like, is there really that much more antipathy now than there ever than there was, you know, six years ago for Susan Collins? 00:06:54.000 --> 00:06:58.240 I like I'm I think about all the bye-bye Susan bumper stickers, you know what I mean. 00:06:58.560 --> 00:07:00.000 I've been seeing for years. 00:07:00.319 --> 00:07:07.600 And it's like there was nothing more satisfying in 2020 than driving by a car that had to go on the bumper the day after the election. 00:07:08.240 --> 00:07:10.560 I was like, she's still here. 00:07:10.720 --> 00:07:12.399 She still is still sticking six more years. 00:07:12.639 --> 00:07:19.360 Yeah, and so and so that's why I guess I I feel like there's still absolutely a possibility of something like that happening. 00:07:19.519 --> 00:07:26.560 Um and also it's and that was still during the end of Trump's term. 00:07:27.519 --> 00:07:29.759 It was in his at the end of his first term, yeah. 00:07:30.079 --> 00:07:33.680 It was a Trump, it wasn't a Trump midterm, but it was a Trump re-elect. 00:07:33.759 --> 00:07:33.839 Right. 00:07:35.040 --> 00:07:35.199 Right. 00:07:35.360 --> 00:07:42.240 So you think that there'd be like a maybe similar, it's like kind of similar conditions if you want to if you think about it, you know what I mean? 00:07:42.480 --> 00:07:45.199 But um, and so I mean I could be way off. 00:07:45.279 --> 00:08:02.879 I could be absolutely way off, but I think that will uh I I I want to say that there could be a a modicum of a repeat of the Sarah Gideon year, especially because there's really there can't be that much more um uh I guess fervor for Troy Jackson. 00:08:03.040 --> 00:08:07.839 I mean, if if if Susan Collins was up against Graham Platiner right now, I would not be saying plus five. 00:08:08.000 --> 00:08:10.399 Yeah, I would absolutely not be saying plus five. 00:08:10.560 --> 00:08:11.120 No way. 00:08:11.279 --> 00:08:13.040 Um I wouldn't even be saying plus three. 00:08:13.199 --> 00:08:16.639 And you're honestly probably more correct than I am with your prediction right now, Montana. 00:08:16.720 --> 00:08:25.439 But yeah, if she was up against Grant Platner, like I would be extremely um not confident, I guess, about her winning, um, especially by any of the things. 00:08:25.519 --> 00:08:34.639 All right, so before I do my prediction and before Emily's forced to give me a prediction as well, as she will be, um counter-argument, sir. 00:08:34.720 --> 00:08:42.399 Uh the defense counsel says here that Jackson may not be a compelling person and uh he does suck. 00:08:42.559 --> 00:08:53.200 I mean, I'm not a Troy Jackson fan at all, but there's a few things about him that are different than Gideon, I think, that make make him potentially a little more sellable for palatable, yeah. 00:08:53.360 --> 00:08:54.000 More palatable. 00:08:54.080 --> 00:08:57.120 I mean, the the biggest and most obvious one is that Sarah Gideon was from Freeport. 00:08:57.200 --> 00:09:07.200 She was a southern Maine coastal elite Democrat, and he is, for whatever else you want to say about him, like a backwoods, you know, dude from northern Maine, right? 00:09:07.440 --> 00:09:12.639 So whether it's the accent or the you know, wearing a barn jacket next to the logs and all that other stuff, whatever. 00:09:12.720 --> 00:09:19.840 He's got a vibe, and that vibe is more working class, sure, it's more union, it's uh more northern Maine, etc. 00:09:20.080 --> 00:09:25.759 And that is a that is a like long time lesson that we've we've seen in Maine politics. 00:09:25.840 --> 00:09:30.960 Like the Democratic Party in Maine actually, people don't understand this, it actually sucks statewide. 00:09:31.039 --> 00:09:37.600 Like they're really bad statewide, yeah, unless they choose a rural Maine Democrat or a northern Maine Democrat. 00:09:37.840 --> 00:09:40.720 When they choose southern Maine Democrats, they get destroyed. 00:09:40.960 --> 00:09:42.960 But Jana Mills, Farmington, right? 00:09:43.120 --> 00:09:46.080 Western Maine, more rural, like up there, she's very successful. 00:09:46.240 --> 00:09:48.399 John Baldacci, Greater Bangor area. 00:09:48.480 --> 00:09:49.919 Like it's the the people that win. 00:09:50.000 --> 00:09:52.159 I mean, that's what's we have now that we have Pingry. 00:09:52.480 --> 00:09:54.639 Pingry's a first district congresswoman. 00:09:55.279 --> 00:09:56.000 That's it. 00:09:57.039 --> 00:09:59.360 Hannah Pingry, maybe, sure. 00:09:59.759 --> 00:10:01.279 Uh, but I think that there's some complicated things. 00:10:01.679 --> 00:10:02.480 Well that I guess that's what I mean.

00:10:02.559 --> 00:10:05.440 Like Hannah Pingry is still she's like a coastal elite, just like a mother. 00:10:05.679 --> 00:10:06.240 Yeah, she is. 00:10:06.559 --> 00:10:20.000 And now and and with like the amount of percentage points of well, at least, you know, by the polls of her being over Bobby, Charles, it's like, well, clearly people statewide still support a an elite coastal. 00:10:20.799 --> 00:10:26.000 Well, sure, if you want to analyze it that way, I think that they're probably willing to overlook it because she doesn't feel like one. 00:10:26.240 --> 00:10:26.480 Sure. 00:10:26.559 --> 00:10:26.799 Yeah, yeah. 00:10:26.960 --> 00:10:28.960 I mean, coastal elites have a snottiness to them. 00:10:29.279 --> 00:10:29.679 Oh, yes. 00:10:29.919 --> 00:10:35.360 That I think Sarah Gideon kind of exuded a little bit, honestly, wearing wearing her scarfs and you know, all that stuff. 00:10:35.519 --> 00:10:35.919 Oh, yeah. 00:10:36.080 --> 00:10:42.159 So I think Troy has like the potential for being more appealing to a lot of people that he would need to find him more appealing if he was gonna win. 00:10:42.320 --> 00:10:42.480 Yeah. 00:10:42.799 --> 00:10:44.159 Have I changed your mind at all? 00:10:46.159 --> 00:10:46.480 No. 00:10:46.799 --> 00:10:47.039 Good. 00:10:47.200 --> 00:10:47.519 Cool. 00:10:47.759 --> 00:10:49.600 I don't like when people change their mind when I make an argument. 00:10:50.159 --> 00:10:55.519 Um, okay, so plus three, plus five for Collins both. 00:10:56.080 --> 00:10:57.440 Can I ask just one quick question? 00:10:57.679 --> 00:11:01.679 When when she when she defeated Sarah Gideon, it was plus nine, wasn't it? 00:11:01.840 --> 00:11:02.799 It was eight and a half, yeah. 00:11:02.879 --> 00:11:03.279 Okay, yeah. 00:11:03.360 --> 00:11:04.879 Wow, that's you can round up. 00:11:05.120 --> 00:11:05.519 Yeah, wow. 00:11:05.679 --> 00:11:06.159 Yeah, not bad. 00:11:06.320 --> 00:11:06.879 All right, continue. 00:11:06.960 --> 00:11:09.840 And she was down by five, so that's a 14 points win for the goals. 00:11:10.639 --> 00:11:11.759 I do not think that's happening again. 00:11:12.639 --> 00:11:12.960 That's insane. 00:11:13.200 --> 00:11:15.519 So, Emily, do you want me to go first or shall you? 00:11:16.480 --> 00:11:18.879 Well, I think I'm gonna pick plus four. 00:11:21.039 --> 00:11:22.879 That's a safe place to be. 00:11:23.120 --> 00:11:30.080 Well, if it would be plus four, you guys you guys would be arguing over who won, so I'm just gonna make it easy and pick four. 00:11:30.480 --> 00:11:32.240 That's a true safe place, yeah. 00:11:32.480 --> 00:11:32.879 Okay, yeah. 00:11:33.200 --> 00:11:36.720 Do you actually feel that though, or is that just your tactical selection? 00:11:37.519 --> 00:11:43.519 Uh I didn't come in with any guesses, but I just okay, but straight up winning winning and losing. 00:11:43.600 --> 00:11:44.799 That's a that's a binary choice. 00:11:44.879 --> 00:11:45.679 Do you think Collins wins? 00:11:45.759 --> 00:11:46.879 Do you think Jackson wins? 00:11:47.039 --> 00:11:49.440 I mean, you just said plus four, so I think Collins. 00:11:49.600 --> 00:11:50.720 You do, you really do though. 00:11:50.960 --> 00:11:52.080 You really actually think that. 00:11:52.320 --> 00:11:55.759 I mean, I don't know the future, but no one does. 00:11:56.639 --> 00:11:57.600 I think Collins. 00:11:57.840 --> 00:12:00.320 Okay, so Collins and we'll settle for plus four. 00:12:00.399 --> 00:12:01.519 Plus four is my thing. 00:12:01.759 --> 00:12:13.519 Well, it this is really actually making me a mad and B B a little worried because I don't like when a group of four people on the political right agree that the care the candidate on the political right is gonna win. 00:12:14.480 --> 00:12:16.720 But I do, and there's a couple reasons why I do. 00:12:16.960 --> 00:12:22.159 Well, remember, it like I said, if it was against Graham Platner, I would don't I do not think I'd be making this prediction. 00:12:22.559 --> 00:12:23.759 So continue. 00:12:24.159 --> 00:12:24.720 That's fair. 00:12:24.799 --> 00:12:27.519 I mean, like if she wins, then we were just all right. 00:12:27.679 --> 00:12:34.879 Like, you know, so it's not not necessarily worrisome, but it does worry me when everybody like they that's that's groupthink in a nutshell. 00:12:35.039 --> 00:12:35.440 You know what I mean? 00:12:35.600 --> 00:12:35.679 Yeah. 00:12:35.840 --> 00:12:41.039 But here, let me I'm gonna read you a tweet storm of mine um from yesterday. 00:12:41.360 --> 00:12:43.440 Uh I think it was yesterday that I did this. 00:12:43.519 --> 00:12:54.639 But um ultimately it was actually sort of predictive of the of the race a little bit because what you had this week, if you guys didn't see, and I think you guys did, um, is you had a couple polls that came out that were sort of interesting. 00:12:54.799 --> 00:12:58.399 And uh the one that I think most people paid attention to was the Marist poll. 00:12:58.480 --> 00:13:03.840 And we have a few things to say about that with the governor's race because it showed something rather interesting that you weren't expecting. 00:13:03.919 --> 00:13:05.039 That's what we call a tease. 00:13:05.440 --> 00:13:09.120 Um, and uh it had a Senate race poll too, and I think it was Jackson plus two. 00:13:09.279 --> 00:13:11.200 It was, you know, it was margin of error kind of stuff. 00:13:11.759 --> 00:13:18.720 But uh the press the Press Herald covered that poll, and in that coverage, they mentioned that there was another poll that was done too. 00:13:18.960 --> 00:13:23.519 And the poll was by Echelon Insights, uh, which is a Virginia-based uh firm. 00:13:23.600 --> 00:13:25.279 And it has to be said it's a Republican firm. 00:13:25.360 --> 00:13:28.399 It's Kristen Sultis Anderson and uh Patrick Raffini. 00:13:28.720 --> 00:13:31.039 Uh, but they're actually like a very high-quality firm. 00:13:31.120 --> 00:13:40.080 Like

they are a right-leaning firm, but it's not one of like the you know, like the Trafalgar groups or whatever that that pretty much always has like super pro-Republican answers. 00:13:40.159 --> 00:13:41.519 They they try to actually poll. 00:13:41.600 --> 00:13:46.559 So it's a it's a fairly good polling outfit, I would say, because Kristen in particular knows what she's doing. 00:13:46.799 --> 00:13:53.120 But anyway, they pointed out that in the echelon poll, they actually this is actually more data than it is polling. 00:13:53.440 --> 00:13:56.080 They polled people who've already voted. 00:13:56.639 --> 00:13:59.519 So if you have already voted, what did you do? 00:13:59.840 --> 00:14:09.360 And the results there, and the way the Press Herald characterized it was that this was more encouraging results for the Democrat than the Marist poll, because the Maris poll had him up too. 00:14:09.600 --> 00:14:16.559 People who voted on election day, Jackson was leading, and he was leading 51 to 44, so a seven-point advantage. 00:14:16.720 --> 00:14:19.440 So you see that and you're like, that's good news for him, right? 00:14:19.759 --> 00:14:20.799 It is horrible news for him. 00:14:21.679 --> 00:14:25.840 It's really bad news for him, and I will tweet storm uh an answer for why. 00:14:26.000 --> 00:14:38.799 Uh, it's not good news for Jackson, because the funny thing about this is that we actually have real data, not polling or projections on absentee ballots, uh, not polling or projections, but absentee ballots requested and returned in Maine. 00:14:38.960 --> 00:14:54.720 So that we can actually apply the echelon numbers to what we've already seen come back, and we can kind of try to draw a conclusion about what election day and how many voters we have and how that'll all work out, because you can basically take real numbers and then sort of project them out a little bit. 00:14:54.960 --> 00:15:10.000 Uh, so I ran some numbers on this one, and uh, with the absentee ballots returned thus far being 5144 for Jackson among those who've already voted, then I applied it to what it would mean for the outcome based on the projections for overall turnout with all uh voters. 00:15:10.159 --> 00:15:17.039 Because if you don't know this, and I think most people do, Democrats and Republicans vote early and absentee at very different rates. 00:15:17.600 --> 00:15:22.240 The the Democratic Party has become very comfortable with voting early and voting absentee. 00:15:22.799 --> 00:15:28.320 Republicans, even today, even after 2024, they tend to distrust it, they don't like it, so they vote on election day. 00:15:28.559 --> 00:15:35.759 So in election after election after election after election, you see this sort of like big absentee ballot advantage that the Democrats have. 00:15:35.840 --> 00:15:43.519 And then on election day, the Republicans come out at their the rate that they come out and equalize it to a significant degree, and you know, there you are. 00:15:43.759 --> 00:15:46.960 Now, as they do that, you have to keep in mind the kind of year it is. 00:15:47.039 --> 00:15:51.519 Like this is a Democratic year in a midterm election, so no presidential race. 00:15:51.679 --> 00:16:02.240 So you have past performance of Republicans coming out on Election Day in races like that to judge what's going to happen with them on election day. 00:16:02.399 --> 00:16:11.759 So that's kind of complicated, but you know, that's the math is basically what do I expect for total overall uh people showing up in both parties on election day? 00:16:11.919 --> 00:16:15.120 How do I apply what the absentee ballots have already showed me? 00:16:15.360 --> 00:16:20.559 And what do I know about those people's intentions to vote and how can I apply those to the people that haven't voted yet? 00:16:20.960 --> 00:16:22.720 It's very complicated, it sounds like, right? 00:16:22.799 --> 00:16:24.000 But it's actually fairly simple. 00:16:24.240 --> 00:16:30.159 So the early ballots so far are heavily Democratic by registration, as we all know, and he's leading by seven. 00:16:30.399 --> 00:16:35.360 Uh, this is very consistent with uh what we saw in 2020, for instance. 00:16:36.240 --> 00:16:43.840 Ultimately, long story short, he's leading by about 28 percentage points in overall ballots that have been returned on the Democratic Party. 00:16:44.159 --> 00:16:56.080 So if the unenrolled voters who have already voted would have split evenly, just as an example, then and and say Collins and Jackson had the same rate of their own party, then he would have a 28% lead. 00:16:56.399 --> 00:16:57.759 He has a 7% lead. 00:16:58.159 --> 00:17:00.399 So the question is is like what's happening here? 00:17:00.639 --> 00:17:11.920 Um the polls that have been done by New York Times and Siena, uh, I think the new and H poll also did it, asked questions about hey, are you a Republican or a Democrat voter? 00:17:12.240 --> 00:17:12.720 Uh great. 00:17:12.880 --> 00:17:14.240 Are you voting for Collins or Jackson? 00:17:14.400 --> 00:17:22.640 And then they have like the rate of loyalty for both parties, and Jackson's was like 87% or something like that, and Collins's was like 91%. 00:17:23.039 --> 00:17:25.200 So the Republicans are slightly more loyal. 00:17:25.359 --> 00:17:31.440 So you build that into it a little bit, and uh so the disloyal Democrats are built into your all overall calculus here. 00:17:31.839 --> 00:17:43.680 And uh then you have to figure out after you do that what's left over for the break in those independents in what's already happened with the voting, and the break is it's huge, it's like 6040. 00:17:43.839 --> 00:17:48.319 It's it's 6040-ish uh for the unenrolled voters going for Collins. 00:17:48.720 --> 00:18:00.480 So if that's true, and if X number of unenrolled voters and X number of Republicans come on election day, and the remainder of the Democrats come on election day, what would that mean uh for the

overall outcome? 00:18:00.720 --> 00:18:13.119 It's dependent on a couple things, including how many how much of Collins' margin was actually more disloyalty in the Democrats than those polls showed, and how much of it was actually winning independence. 00:18:13.200 --> 00:18:21.279 Like some of that changes the math a little bit, but it's anywhere from one to eight points that Collins would win if that stuff is true. 00:18:21.359 --> 00:18:22.559 And that's the big if, right? 00:18:22.640 --> 00:18:24.240 If is Echelon right? 00:18:24.480 --> 00:18:27.440 Did when they called those people, is that a representative sample? 00:18:27.599 --> 00:18:29.119 Can you rely on that information? 00:18:29.279 --> 00:18:30.400 Is that really true? 00:18:30.559 --> 00:18:32.559 Because if it is, she's winning, she's totally winning. 00:18:32.720 --> 00:18:33.599 100% she's winning. 00:18:33.839 --> 00:18:35.279 Probably by five, I think. 00:18:35.759 --> 00:18:42.720 Well, it's funny you guys are chuckling, but the uh the range was one to eight, but the most likely scenario was four to six. 00:18:42.960 --> 00:18:47.200 So you may be actually dead on with your four. 00:18:47.359 --> 00:18:49.519 Is the evil genius amongst us here? 00:18:49.759 --> 00:18:51.359 She's real hustling over here, dude. 00:18:51.519 --> 00:18:59.039 Yeah, I think I'm predicting something a little bit more narrower because I think that uh just the kind of year it is and how things are going, it's gonna break a little bit away from that. 00:18:59.119 --> 00:19:03.599 So I would say two, two to four is where I'm falling on this. 00:19:04.079 --> 00:19:05.119 Two to four, you say. 00:19:05.200 --> 00:19:06.480 That sounds around three. 00:19:06.720 --> 00:19:09.599 It does sound like it could be three, possibly. 00:19:10.000 --> 00:19:15.200 But here's the other thing, too, is that um the polls have all shown that it's basically tied, right? 00:19:15.519 --> 00:19:17.759 But what have I been saying for like six months now? 00:19:18.000 --> 00:19:20.960 Polling Maine is really hard, and pulling the second district is hard. 00:19:21.039 --> 00:19:35.839 And when you go back into all of her past uh elections, every single one of them, she has overperformed the polls, whether she won by 40 points, which happened when she was going against Giannibello's hilarious race, by the way. 00:19:36.000 --> 00:19:38.000 Um, or if she's just win narrowly. 00:19:38.079 --> 00:19:40.559 Um, she always overperforms what the expectations were. 00:19:40.640 --> 00:19:49.440 And I think that the big reason, if you want to explain this soberly, is that her strength, her base of strength is actually very second congressional district. 00:19:49.519 --> 00:19:50.640 It's very much northern Maine. 00:19:50.720 --> 00:19:52.319 She's originally from Arista County. 00:19:52.400 --> 00:19:59.920 Um, CD2 is more Republican anyway, but she's really good there in general, like just as a politician, especially on converting Democrats and stuff. 00:20:00.079 --> 00:20:03.680 Uh, and that is a place that no one has figured out how to poll. 00:20:03.839 --> 00:20:04.880 Nobody ever gets it right. 00:20:05.039 --> 00:20:09.680 I mean, these polls that show like Dunlap and LePage tied, I wouldn't be shocked if that dude won by 15 points. 00:20:09.839 --> 00:20:13.920 I really wouldn't, just because of how bad the polling has been there over the last 10 years. 00:20:14.079 --> 00:20:23.519 So if you get the place that is her biggest strength wrong, and if it's hard to poll it, then you could be thinking this is a tied race when it's not. 00:20:23.680 --> 00:20:29.279 I mean, you could think it's a five-point Gideon win when it's actually a nine-point Collins win because of things like that. 00:20:29.519 --> 00:20:35.680 Now, do I think that's necessarily going to be true forever and that they'll never figure it out or they'll never fix it? 00:20:36.240 --> 00:20:42.799 No, but I don't see any evidence that they have figured out anything about the second district right now, and Collins is on the ballot again. 00:20:42.880 --> 00:20:46.559 I mean, I just I and Troy Jackson's a terrible candidate. 00:20:47.200 --> 00:20:51.119 So I just have this nagging suspicion it ain't gonna work out for the guy. 00:20:51.680 --> 00:20:53.519 But maybe that's wishful thinking. 00:20:53.599 --> 00:20:54.160 I don't know. 00:20:54.880 --> 00:20:58.319 So we've now done our predictions for that one race. 00:20:59.440 --> 00:21:01.920 Uh let's do the governor's race. 00:21:02.240 --> 00:21:05.200 Who wants to take that prediction first? 00:21:05.599 --> 00:21:24.240 And and as you think about your prediction, you are correct, Garrett Hoffman, that most of the uh polls have shown like an eight or a ten or even a twelve point win for Hannah Pingry, but that very same Marist poll that I referenced just a moment ago that had Jackson up by two had the governor's race tied. 00:21:24.480 --> 00:21:26.720 Yeah, like totally de-even tied. 00:21:27.200 --> 00:21:27.359 Yeah. 00:21:28.000 --> 00:21:32.640 Now I have some concerns about that poll, but hey, maybe they're on to something. 00:21:33.039 --> 00:21:43.440 It is interesting too to go from what Pingry with like a 13 point lead to all of a sudden this poll comes out and they're dead even within just what, like a couple weeks. 00:21:43.519 --> 00:21:46.079 I I want to say ever have a 13 point lead. 00:21:46.480 --> 00:21:46.880 Right. 00:21:47.359 --> 00:21:48.240 Because that would be the question. 00:21:48.559 --> 00:21:50.799 It's not like something radically changed, it's just like they were wrong. 00:21:51.039 --> 00:21:51.119 Right. 00:21:51.359 --> 00:21:53.920 I mean, Maine I'm sorry, but Maine is a hard place to pull. 00:21:54.640 --> 00:21:55.119 It really is. 00:21:55.200 --> 00:21:59.359 And again, if they are wrong about second district stuff, which maybe they're not. 00:22:00.160 --> 00:22:02.160 They're dead on, but

maybe they are. 00:22:02.400 --> 00:22:05.200 And if they are, then Charles would be closer, just naturally. 00:22:05.359 --> 00:22:05.680 Yeah. 00:22:06.000 --> 00:22:13.119 So I know that that that poll, I think, made me sort of second guess a little bit, but I I know that you've expressed some concerns. 00:22:13.279 --> 00:22:15.279 I maybe uh I don't know if you did, too. 00:22:15.359 --> 00:22:17.519 Yeah, um, so now it's like, what do I believe? 00:22:17.680 --> 00:22:18.960 I don't know what to believe. 00:22:19.279 --> 00:22:24.880 Well, can we can we say that it's definitely a great reason to just not let polls lead you around? 00:22:25.200 --> 00:22:25.839 Right, right. 00:22:26.000 --> 00:22:28.640 Because how many people have not given Bobby Charles a check? 00:22:28.880 --> 00:22:32.559 You know, like he raised up a million bucks, but but like it's like this guy's losing, he's losing by 10. 00:22:32.640 --> 00:22:35.279 I'm not gonna give money to some dude that's losing by 10, right? 00:22:35.359 --> 00:22:39.599 Yeah, and if they thought that he was winning, they would have given him money and then he would have had an easier time winning. 00:22:39.759 --> 00:22:39.920 Right. 00:22:40.400 --> 00:22:41.680 And it's like self-fulfilling prophecy. 00:22:42.000 --> 00:22:47.279 If he ends up losing by two or three points, yeah, you know, if he had it's gonna be some hell to pay if that happens, right? 00:22:47.359 --> 00:22:57.680 Because then the points, you know, on the polling may could have made the difference in the race by to your point stopping that money from flowing in, which could have gotten him those few percentage points that he would have needed. 00:22:58.319 --> 00:23:05.680 It's wild that polls can be so radically inaccurate and it can be so they can be so influential in elections. 00:23:05.759 --> 00:23:09.599 It really is like with the track record they have, no one should take them seriously, right? 00:23:09.680 --> 00:23:11.839 And it's it's it's wild though, like but they can't help it. 00:23:12.000 --> 00:23:20.400 It's like a mechanism that actually does interfere with elections if you think that's and it's not and they're not even very necessarily credible or reliable. 00:23:20.720 --> 00:23:21.839 Was it last week that we talked about it? 00:23:21.920 --> 00:23:22.960 The fake poll thing? 00:23:23.440 --> 00:23:24.880 Do you guys did we talk about that on the podcast? 00:23:25.839 --> 00:23:26.319 On the podcast. 00:23:26.559 --> 00:23:36.640 So there's twice now, there has been some either guy, guy or group uh that has created a fake polling firm and has released fake poll numbers. 00:23:36.960 --> 00:23:45.920 And it was and in both cases, it was done as a social experiment to prove that you people out like journalists, like will just do anything. 00:23:46.079 --> 00:23:46.480 You'll just take it. 00:23:46.559 --> 00:23:48.079 Yeah, you don't care, you're just gonna take it. 00:23:48.240 --> 00:23:49.599 You

don't have any idea who I am. 00:23:49.680 --> 00:23:52.240 You haven't done any work on who, like, am I credible? 00:23:52.400 --> 00:23:55.200 Uh, you just it's you it's irresistible catnip too. 00:23:55.279 --> 00:23:56.880 You cannot not put it up. 00:23:56.960 --> 00:23:59.119 And they're right because they just always do. 00:23:59.200 --> 00:24:02.240 I mean, MS now did this whole segment on this fake poll. 00:24:02.319 --> 00:24:03.599 It was just so great. 00:24:03.839 --> 00:24:08.559 But uh then they come out and they say afterwards, they're like, uh yeah, we're shutting down and we're not a real polling firm. 00:24:08.640 --> 00:24:09.440 So shame on you. 00:24:09.680 --> 00:24:10.400 Shame on you. 00:24:10.640 --> 00:24:22.240 And after the late, latest one that did that, um, which happened, I think, like two weeks ago, one of the candidates that lost to El Said in in Michigan, uh, the Democratic candidate that lost to him, was pissed. 00:24:22.720 --> 00:24:28.960 Because she said that the poll that they released that was fake that showed her losing big affect like dried up her fundraising. 00:24:29.039 --> 00:24:29.200 Right. 00:24:29.440 --> 00:24:33.839 People didn't believe she could win anymore, and like it just actually psychologically influenced exactly. 00:24:33.920 --> 00:24:34.160 Yeah. 00:24:34.400 --> 00:24:43.039 Like not just the voters on election day, but how the election went because she didn't have the resources she needed, she didn't have the volunteers she needed because they all thought she was a loser. 00:24:43.200 --> 00:24:43.519 Yeah. 00:24:43.680 --> 00:24:50.480 And it could be and maybe she would have been anyway, but and it could be totally faulty or like you said, fake polling. 00:24:50.960 --> 00:25:00.319 And but people take it as gospel, and they you know, like their psychology is determined by those polls, and then their behavior is determined by their psychology. 00:25:00.400 --> 00:25:05.359 So they don't, yeah, like you said, like contribute to a campaign or whatever, or go out and vote for the person. 00:25:05.519 --> 00:25:21.200 I remember like the I think like one of the most famous examples, and we've talked about it before, but like the 2015 election um or 2016 with Trump with Trump and Hillary, and Hillary was up, was like CNN was framing it as like such a guaranteed victory for Hillary Clinton. 00:25:23.920 --> 00:25:32.640 I thought it was gonna I thought I was gonna I was gonna say like ninety-five, but yeah, to to make it seem like it's such a sure thing that to go out and even vote for Trump is a waste of your time. 00:25:32.720 --> 00:25:34.000 You might as well just surrender. 00:25:34.160 --> 00:25:37.279 And then sure enough, he ended up voting it defeats her. 00:25:37.359 --> 00:25:37.519 Yeah. 00:25:37.839 --> 00:25:46.799 And you have to wonder to what degree would he have ended up beating her if throughout the whole campaign there wasn't this like stench of death on the guy. 00:25:46.880 --> 00:25:47.039 Right. 00:25:47.200 --> 00:25:47.680 Right, right. 00:25:47.839 --> 00:25:49.039 Like if they had gotten it right, you know? 00:25:49.279 --> 00:25:58.720 So it's wild that in that, in that, um, in that way, polls actually kind of are sort of like electioneering in a way, or they're interfering with elections in that way. 00:25:58.880 --> 00:26:00.400 Whether it's and they're not even reliable. 00:26:00.720 --> 00:26:01.519 Yeah, they're not they're not. 00:26:01.599 --> 00:26:06.240 But the thing, you know, the person you should hate more is not the journal is not the uh pollsters, it's the journalists. 00:26:06.480 --> 00:26:17.839 Because the journalists could take these polls, report on them, and say, by the way, the University of New Hampshire has had pretty terrible uh track record in Maine predicting results. 00:26:18.000 --> 00:26:29.759 So while this is an interesting survey, you should probably be aware of the fact that they missed by nine in this last uh this last election cycle, and they missed by 11 in the one before whatever the numbers really are, you know, to give context to the whole thing. 00:26:29.920 --> 00:26:31.359 But you know, that would take effort. 00:26:31.759 --> 00:26:37.359 That would take intelligence, that would take research, you know, to actually be able to properly contextualize this. 00:26:37.440 --> 00:26:38.880 And all they want are clicks. 00:26:39.039 --> 00:26:42.799 They just want to do the least amount of work to get the most amount of clicks possible. 00:26:42.960 --> 00:26:48.720 So they will just basically take the press release of this company and just throw it up on their website. 00:26:49.680 --> 00:26:57.039 Just call it new poll shows, and then they not only do that, but then they in their other stories, this one drives me absolutely crazy. 00:26:57.200 --> 00:27:04.400 They will actually say things like he is leading or she is losing or whatever, as though it's just true. 00:27:05.119 --> 00:27:07.279 There's they're not even they don't qualify it at all. 00:27:07.359 --> 00:27:16.880 They just they basically take the horse race stuff and they assume that the polls are giving you an accurate representation of what's really happening out there when they could or they could not and you don't know. 00:27:17.039 --> 00:27:17.359 Right. 00:27:17.519 --> 00:27:19.839 And shame on them for that, but that's laziness also. 00:27:20.480 --> 00:27:24.960 I was yes, it would it would be yeah, like uh imprudent journalism, I guess. 00:27:25.119 --> 00:27:28.000 Um you see how hard it is for us to actually make a prediction here? 00:27:28.160 --> 00:27:29.680 None nobody's done it yet, right? 00:27:29.759 --> 00:27:36.480 I yeah, because I because I don't have any confidence in my prediction with with this upcoming with the governor's race, I guess, specifically. 00:27:36.720 --> 00:27:40.240 Because there's so many, I think, like confounding variables in a way. 00:27:40.480 -->

00:27:44.240 Um but uh get on. 00:27:44.480 --> 00:27:45.519 He's not gonna do it. 00:27:45.839 --> 00:27:47.119 I'm gonna have to poke him. 00:27:47.359 --> 00:27:53.039 Oh unfortunately, uh, I kind of do think um Pingree plus five. 00:27:53.200 --> 00:27:53.599 There you go. 00:27:53.680 --> 00:27:54.799 See, you gotta be made. 00:27:55.279 --> 00:27:57.759 I was gonna say I was actually gonna say Pingree plus three. 00:27:57.839 --> 00:27:58.319 Yeah, yeah. 00:27:58.640 --> 00:27:59.359 That's pretty close. 00:27:59.519 --> 00:27:59.920 Yeah. 00:28:00.160 --> 00:28:00.480 Yeah. 00:28:00.720 --> 00:28:03.119 Pingree plus three, Pingree plus five. 00:28:06.000 --> 00:28:07.279 Bobby Charles plus one. 00:28:07.680 --> 00:28:13.200 Bobby Charles, that's what I'm looking for in this podcast is some sort of a different take. 00:28:13.599 --> 00:28:17.200 Optimism, optimism, sure, but it's entirely possible. 00:28:17.279 --> 00:28:18.079 I've seen that happen. 00:28:18.240 --> 00:28:19.279 Yeah, I have seen that happen. 00:28:19.759 --> 00:28:37.440 This would be a funny year for it to happen, but Amenta asks Um, do you think that these journalists and everything must know that, or even polsters, that Republicans slash conservatives tend to be a bit defeatist when it comes to this stuff and easily surrender. 00:28:37.680 --> 00:28:46.079 And that's why if they can frame it as this Democrats leading, especially by this much, then it'll be demoralizing the position. 00:28:46.240 --> 00:28:48.160 Yeah, it demoralizes the little Sun Tzu in there. 00:28:48.240 --> 00:28:48.799 Is that what you're saying? 00:28:48.960 --> 00:28:56.319 Yeah, because I I don't know if it is like a uniquely Republican phenomenon where people if they if they're just a human thing. 00:28:56.400 --> 00:28:58.960 If it's yeah, if it's just a human thing, like, oh we're so screwed. 00:28:59.200 --> 00:28:59.680 What's the point? 00:28:59.839 --> 00:29:00.319 You know what I mean? 00:29:00.880 --> 00:29:01.839 You should talk to my wife right now. 00:29:01.920 --> 00:29:03.920 She's walking around the house just swearing at things. 00:29:04.559 --> 00:29:05.119 Oh no. 00:29:05.359 --> 00:29:06.799 It's like I don't understand what anything is. 00:29:07.039 --> 00:29:08.720 People in this state in this country are doing us. 00:29:09.599 --> 00:29:10.000 She won't stop. 00:29:10.079 --> 00:29:12.880 I'm like, oh my god, gotta get out of here. 00:29:13.039 --> 00:29:13.279 Yeah. 00:29:13.359 --> 00:29:14.559 Uh I think it's I think it's easy. 00:29:16.160 --> 00:29:17.200 You know, that phenomenon. 00:29:17.599 --> 00:29:18.480 You could, I don't know. 00:29:18.559 --> 00:29:19.440 A lot of people think they do. 00:29:19.599 --> 00:29:20.000 I don't. 00:29:20.160 --> 00:29:30.319 I think that you ne you should never assign to like evil, nefarious, mustache twirling, you know, villainry what you can assign to like laziness and incompetence. 00:29:30.480 --> 00:29:32.000 Like that tends

to be the bigger thing to me. 00:29:32.079 --> 00:29:38.559 I think that I just think the reporters, it's partly laziness and partly they're so overworked and overextended because there aren't any reporters left. 00:29:38.640 --> 00:29:41.039 Like, there's like two people in the newsroom where there used to be 20. 00:29:41.440 --> 00:29:44.559 So they cover everything and they cover it superficially, so they don't know what they're doing. 00:29:44.799 --> 00:29:44.960 Yeah. 00:29:45.200 --> 00:29:47.440 And then they also are also lazy. 00:29:47.680 --> 00:29:48.559 Do you on top of it? 00:29:49.039 --> 00:29:52.480 Do you think Republicans do tend to be more defeatist, though, than Democrats? 00:29:52.640 --> 00:30:02.880 Because I only ask that because sometimes it does seem like Democrats are way, way more politically animated and motivated than Republicans sometimes. 00:30:02.960 --> 00:30:24.400 Like they could it's just because sometimes they seem so in in some cases ideologically possessed, and in some in some cases too, where like because politics is their religion, they they're just so committed to the cause and like mobilizing people and getting getting the vote and that's maybe I don't know, maybe that's why they vote in such huge numbers in absentee, but maybe that's a different thing. 00:30:24.480 --> 00:30:25.119 I don't I don't know. 00:30:25.200 --> 00:30:27.039 It's just something I've I've thought about a lot. 00:30:27.920 --> 00:30:28.240 Yeah. 00:30:28.480 --> 00:30:44.720 I mean, I my it's dimes store psychoanalysis, but I would say that the the shift that's taken place in both parties over the last 20 or so years, where the Republicans have become more working class and the Democrats have become more white-collar and professional and whatnot. 00:30:44.799 --> 00:30:45.200 Yeah. 00:30:45.359 --> 00:30:50.720 Um, it has uh coincided with a major change in propensity to vote. 00:30:51.200 --> 00:30:53.200 Like white-collar people vote more. 00:30:53.279 --> 00:30:53.920 They they just do. 00:30:54.000 --> 00:30:58.240 Like if you're highly educated, you have a good job, you whatever, they you you show up every time. 00:30:58.319 --> 00:30:58.799 You just do. 00:30:58.960 --> 00:31:03.359 Working class people are far more captured by like the politics of the moment. 00:31:03.440 --> 00:31:05.759 So like presidential races are interesting, so they go. 00:31:05.839 --> 00:31:09.599 And you know, when it's like the local dog catcher, they don't, and stuff like that. 00:31:09.839 --> 00:31:18.160 And it used to be that Republicans were, you know, suburban white-collar professionals, high income, you know, high education, whatever. 00:31:18.400 --> 00:31:23.200 And the low propensity voters were Democrats because they were more working class, labor unions, etc. 00:31:23.440 --> 00:31:25.279 And it just just was the way that it was. 00:31:25.359 --> 00:31:26.000 And now we've switched. 00:31:26.079 --> 00:31:29.279 Yeah, it's and so as we've switched, like, guess who's not showing up as much? 00:31:29.440 --> 00:31:30.319 It's the Republicans. 00:31:30.480 --> 00:31:33.359 So I'm not sure it's about demoralization or like defeatism or whatever. 00:31:33.440 --> 00:31:40.240 I think it's just a sure, it's like a trickle-down effect of like the voter propensity stuff that's just always been true. 00:31:40.400 --> 00:31:40.720 Okay. 00:31:40.880 --> 00:31:41.839 It's my case. 00:31:42.079 --> 00:31:44.160 So you yeah, your prediction, Matthew? 00:31:44.400 --> 00:31:45.599 Oh no, no, no, no, no. 00:31:45.759 --> 00:31:46.240 No, she's gonna be. 00:31:46.319 --> 00:31:46.799 Oh, she did it. 00:31:46.960 --> 00:31:47.279 She did one. 00:31:47.359 --> 00:31:48.720 Okay, so I am gonna do one. 00:31:50.000 --> 00:31:51.119 That's a good question. 00:31:51.279 --> 00:31:55.920 I let me say this first because I don't want Bobby Charles to get mad at me. 00:31:56.799 --> 00:31:57.440 I don't. 00:31:57.599 --> 00:31:59.440 I mean, I I I'm gonna vote for him. 00:31:59.519 --> 00:32:01.039 So I very rarely say that stuff. 00:32:01.119 --> 00:32:02.400 So there you go, Bobby. 00:32:02.559 --> 00:32:03.119 I said it. 00:32:03.200 --> 00:32:06.799 I don't usually say who I vote for on this thing because I don't want to make any of this stuff political. 00:32:06.880 --> 00:32:10.799 Because I really, you know, if Hannah Pingry won and I could get my stuff through, cool. 00:32:11.119 --> 00:32:12.480 Whatever, don't care. 00:32:12.720 --> 00:32:18.480 Um, but I think Bobby Charles probably would win this race in a neutral year. 00:32:18.720 --> 00:32:25.039 I was gonna say if I was uninfluenced by who the president of the United States is right now. 00:32:25.519 --> 00:32:28.559 Yeah, because especially after the last eight years of right. 00:32:28.720 --> 00:32:37.119 I mean, I if you if it was just about state stuff and there was no president or something, I think that he he at the very least would have an even money shot of flipping a coin of winning. 00:32:37.200 --> 00:32:48.559 Um, and I think that probably because of the need for change and the desire for something else to happen, which I think is true and people really feel, um, I think he would be in a great position to ultimately win. 00:32:48.880 --> 00:32:53.680 Uh, this is not one of those years, so that makes his job a great deal more difficult, I think. 00:32:53.839 --> 00:32:58.000 Now, I do think it always has been much more close than those polls have shown. 00:32:58.160 --> 00:32:59.680 So I never believe 10 points. 00:32:59.759 --> 00:33:00.880 I just don't. 00:33:01.039 --> 00:33:05.519 Um, and if it ends up being 10 points, then I guess I'll eat my hat or something like that. 00:33:05.599 --> 00:33:12.240 But I I think it's probably been more like six or you know, maybe seven or maybe five or something like that. 00:33:12.400 --> 00:33:18.559 Like he's been down, but it's been sort of within shoot shouting distance of

being able to be uh competitive. 00:33:18.720 --> 00:33:23.599 Uh, I just think that given the nature of the year, it's too big of a mountain for him to climb. 00:33:23.839 --> 00:33:24.880 I really do think that. 00:33:25.039 --> 00:33:27.759 Um, you know, the he's raised a decent amount of money. 00:33:28.000 --> 00:33:32.480 He has not done anything on TV, and I think that's actually like a compliment. 00:33:32.559 --> 00:33:34.720 Like, I don't think that it was going to help him very much to do that. 00:33:34.799 --> 00:33:41.839 So you might as well spend your money on the ground and knocking on doors and sending out mailers and doing whatever, you know, internet ads, whatever you can do. 00:33:42.000 --> 00:33:44.240 Um, but I just don't think that it's enough. 00:33:44.319 --> 00:33:48.960 I think the Democratic Party is too motivated, and the motivation is anti-Trump in every respect. 00:33:49.119 --> 00:33:54.079 So Hannah Pingry, just like Troy Jackson, is essentially generic Democrat to them. 00:33:54.160 --> 00:33:58.079 They're just like vote blue no matter who, as you often say. 00:33:58.319 --> 00:34:00.960 Um, and she's just the late the latest vessel for that. 00:34:01.039 --> 00:34:05.599 She could have screwed it up, but she's a pretty disciplined uh politician. 00:34:05.920 --> 00:34:08.079 She she will not make those kinds of mistakes. 00:34:08.239 --> 00:34:09.280 I mean, watch those debates. 00:34:09.440 --> 00:34:11.599 She said nothing, she said absolutely nothing. 00:34:11.679 --> 00:34:18.400 And that annoys people like me that she said nothing because it's doing a disservice to the voters, but to the clapping seals, though. 00:34:18.559 --> 00:34:21.039 To the clapping seals, but also it's not making mistakes. 00:34:21.199 --> 00:34:21.440 Yeah. 00:34:21.599 --> 00:34:22.000 You know what I mean? 00:34:22.159 --> 00:34:22.639 I don't know what you mean. 00:34:22.719 --> 00:34:24.400 Yeah, like gaffes to like humiliating her. 00:34:24.639 --> 00:34:27.360 She's not screwing anything up right for herself. 00:34:27.519 --> 00:34:27.760 Yeah. 00:34:28.000 --> 00:34:30.400 So sadly, I do think she wins. 00:34:30.480 --> 00:34:34.480 I uh my my margin would probably be I would go with five. 00:34:34.719 --> 00:34:35.280 Yes. 00:34:35.519 --> 00:34:36.480 I would go with five. 00:34:36.639 --> 00:34:38.239 That's where I where I feel now. 00:34:38.400 --> 00:34:47.920 If it was like two, or even if it's Bobby Charles by one, Emily, I wouldn't be like blown away, shocked. 00:34:48.239 --> 00:34:48.800 I wouldn't be. 00:34:48.960 --> 00:34:49.760 I'll tell you what. 00:34:50.000 --> 00:34:57.760 If Collins ends up winning by six or more, something that's like a really comfortable win for her, there's a shot. 00:34:58.079 --> 00:34:58.719 There's a shot. 00:34:58.800 --> 00:35:01.679 I don't know if there's like really a uh coattails issue with her. 00:35:01.760 --> 00:35:09.840 I just think that that would probably mean that the whole idea of Republicans not coming out enough and not responding and to by showing up and stuff would not be true. 00:35:10.000 --> 00:35:12.719 Because if she's winning by that much, then it would have they would have come out. 00:35:12.960 --> 00:35:18.079 They would have come out if they kind of come out how I expect them to, like more like the two or three for her. 00:35:18.159 --> 00:35:20.960 So how much do you think Bennett will end up getting? 00:35:21.679 --> 00:35:22.320 Seven. 00:35:22.960 --> 00:35:23.599 Really? 00:35:24.079 --> 00:35:26.159 Maybe five, somewhere somewhere in there. 00:35:26.400 --> 00:35:27.199 Five was my guess. 00:35:27.679 --> 00:35:28.880 It was all in the five zone, right? 00:35:29.679 --> 00:35:30.079 Yeah, yeah, yeah. 00:35:30.320 --> 00:35:31.440 I was four for Collins. 00:35:31.840 --> 00:35:32.000 Yeah. 00:35:32.079 --> 00:35:33.519 Did you see the student uh elections? 00:35:33.599 --> 00:35:34.159 Did you guys see that? 00:35:34.239 --> 00:35:34.800 Yeah, I didn't see that. 00:35:34.960 --> 00:35:37.280 He got 24% or something, 22%? 00:35:37.840 --> 00:35:38.320 Something like that. 00:35:38.480 --> 00:35:39.440 I'm independent. 00:35:39.760 --> 00:35:41.119 Kids like thinking they're independent. 00:35:41.760 --> 00:35:43.440 Well, that's exactly what happened, right? 00:35:43.519 --> 00:35:44.880 It's just like none of them. 00:35:45.039 --> 00:35:45.199 Yeah. 00:35:45.360 --> 00:35:45.840 Sure, him. 00:35:45.920 --> 00:35:47.039 I don't know who he is, but okay. 00:35:47.199 --> 00:35:48.639 Yeah, he's independent. 00:35:48.880 --> 00:35:53.440 Speaking of that, I remember uh there's the uh what's it the the betting market? 00:35:53.519 --> 00:35:54.320 Kal starts with a K. 00:35:54.480 --> 00:35:54.719 Kelshi? 00:35:54.960 --> 00:35:55.280 Kelshi. 00:35:55.440 --> 00:35:55.760 Kel she? 00:35:55.920 --> 00:35:56.079 Yeah. 00:35:56.559 --> 00:35:57.840 Don't pretend like you don't know. 00:35:58.239 --> 00:35:59.519 Um I couldn't, yeah, I couldn't remember. 00:35:59.599 --> 00:36:00.800 I was like, Kelshi, Kalshi. 00:36:01.119 --> 00:36:05.519 Um, so they there are some Kelshi and Polymarket addicts in this staff. 00:36:05.679 --> 00:36:06.960 I'm just letting you know. 00:36:08.400 --> 00:36:27.039 Well, I saw one, I saw a uh I saw like the results this week of Collins and Troy Jackson and where the market stood there, and it was like 64% for um for Troy Jackson, and then like yeah, like 36 for Susan Collins. 00:36:27.199 --> 00:36:30.320 Um, so but that's you know, that's just the the betting market. 00:36:30.400 --> 00:36:32.320 But I people on Calci not knowing. 00:36:32.480 --> 00:36:37.360 But yeah, I was gonna say, like, but that's that also yeah, that re represents people from all around the country, yeah. 00:36:37.519 --> 00:36:40.880 And like people who don't really know or understand Maine that well. 00:36:41.039 --> 00:36:44.400 They just think that Troy Jackson is gonna blow her out

of the water if you're gonna be able to do that. 00:36:44.559 --> 00:36:45.039 Yeah, I don't know. 00:36:45.199 --> 00:36:45.599 Betting on the colour. 00:36:45.920 --> 00:36:47.119 They're they're just following polls. 00:36:47.360 --> 00:36:48.719 Yeah, that's all it is, right? 00:36:48.800 --> 00:36:50.800 Yeah, just it's just conventional wisdom. 00:36:50.880 --> 00:36:53.440 That's like that's what Calci and Polymarket should be called. 00:36:53.599 --> 00:37:01.679 I'm gonna start up a a uh a micro betting website uh that's called conventional wisdom because that's what it is. 00:37:01.760 --> 00:37:07.039 Yeah, I mean like go look at the football games and stuff, like it's just like the betting lines, like that's all it is. 00:37:07.360 --> 00:37:08.480 So I don't know. 00:37:08.719 --> 00:37:10.639 Um okay, so that's two of them. 00:37:10.960 --> 00:37:15.840 Ever does anybody want to take their stick their neck out on uh Chelly Pingree versus Ron Russell? 00:37:17.039 --> 00:37:21.039 I'm actually I'm actually pretty curious about the DA race, like what's gonna happen there. 00:37:21.280 --> 00:37:22.639 Oh, that's a good that's a good point. 00:37:22.719 --> 00:37:24.400 Yeah, I'm very curious about that. 00:37:24.639 --> 00:37:25.280 Yeah. 00:37:25.599 --> 00:37:26.239 Yeah. 00:37:26.559 --> 00:37:29.119 Uh I mean, I don't have any thoughts on it. 00:37:29.360 --> 00:37:31.039 Like in terms of in terms of like predictions. 00:37:31.440 --> 00:37:31.760 Hell man. 00:37:32.000 --> 00:37:49.360 Just in terms of predictions, but but I'm just curious because of just like knowing the type of person who Jackie Sartoris is, um, especially with all the main wire coverage in the last year with pajama parties and uh people like like a total lack of prosecution or whatever, soft on crime, restorative justice, bull crap, yeah. 00:37:49.599 --> 00:37:53.599 Um, and and people probably losing their appetite for stuff like that. 00:37:53.679 --> 00:37:54.880 And then here's Stephanie Anderson. 00:37:55.199 --> 00:37:55.599 One would hope. 00:37:55.760 --> 00:37:56.960 Yeah, that's what I was just thinking. 00:37:57.360 --> 00:37:57.760 You would hope. 00:37:57.840 --> 00:37:58.960 You would think at this point. 00:37:59.280 --> 00:38:01.760 But some people are just like, yeah, we need more of that. 00:38:01.920 --> 00:38:02.800 So but I'm curious. 00:38:03.360 --> 00:38:05.440 Did you see that Brewer ended its needle program, by the way? 00:38:05.599 --> 00:38:06.880 I mean, it was in the main wire, yeah. 00:38:07.039 --> 00:38:10.079 Oh wow, like the first uh city in the state to actually vote to do that? 00:38:10.159 --> 00:38:11.119 It's like, hey, Brewer. 00:38:11.840 --> 00:38:13.360 Yeah, maybe there is some comedy. 00:38:13.679 --> 00:38:22.559 It's just like if if the city can vote for Mark Dion, would the would the greater area be more inclined to vote for Stephanie Anderson? 00:38:22.960 --> 00:38:23.119 Yeah. 00:38:23.280 --> 00:38:25.360 I

think I think that she has a reasonable chance of winning. 00:38:25.440 --> 00:38:26.400 Yeah, she really does. 00:38:26.559 --> 00:38:27.519 I hope she wins. 00:38:27.679 --> 00:38:29.599 Uh I mean, maybe I'm just revealing all my votes here. 00:38:31.119 --> 00:38:34.320 But uh, you know, she was in that position for 26 years or something like that. 00:38:34.400 --> 00:38:42.960 And you know, she was elected as a Republican in a time when you could do that in Cumberland County, so there's a reason she's running as an independent right now, but it's also a fairly non-political office. 00:38:43.039 --> 00:38:45.199 You're uh you're a prosecutor, it should be, yeah. 00:38:45.519 --> 00:38:45.679 Right. 00:38:45.760 --> 00:38:46.480 I mean, like I don't care. 00:38:46.639 --> 00:38:52.159 I would vote for a Democrat that was going to lock people up and you know, do stuff that I wanted them to do. 00:38:52.239 --> 00:38:57.039 So it doesn't particularly matter, I think, to most people what you are for that job, you know, for governor, sure. 00:38:57.119 --> 00:38:58.559 But yeah, yeah, I don't know. 00:38:58.639 --> 00:39:02.400 But uh the name, you know, she left office, I think, in 2019, right? 00:39:02.559 --> 00:39:05.280 Because then it was uh Sarbeck for four years and then it was Jackie. 00:39:05.440 --> 00:39:11.199 So she, you know, recent enough people remember her probably a little bit, maybe I don't know. 00:39:11.440 --> 00:39:14.400 Jackie Sartoris has been just a disaster, just a disaster. 00:39:15.119 --> 00:39:16.000 Yeah, we'll see. 00:39:16.079 --> 00:39:17.360 No, I'm not doing predictions in that race. 00:39:17.519 --> 00:39:17.760 Yeah, maybe. 00:39:17.920 --> 00:39:18.239 I'm not doing it. 00:39:18.320 --> 00:39:19.519 It's too too low, too little. 00:39:19.760 --> 00:39:20.719 Uh LePage v. 00:39:20.800 --> 00:39:21.440 Dunlap, though. 00:39:21.519 --> 00:39:23.199 That's the other big one for us that we gotta do. 00:39:23.519 --> 00:39:24.320 LaPage v. 00:39:24.400 --> 00:39:25.760 Dunlap, CD2. 00:39:28.880 --> 00:39:33.679 LePage plus I want to just stick to five. 00:39:33.760 --> 00:39:35.119 I don't know, maybe it just feels safe. 00:39:35.360 --> 00:39:37.440 But Lepage, LePage plus five. 00:39:37.679 --> 00:39:39.840 I'm tempted to go higher though, I'm not gonna lie. 00:39:41.440 --> 00:39:49.119 Because Dunlap is even though Jared Golden won last time, uh it was even though it was against poloquin. 00:39:49.280 --> 00:39:53.119 Um Terio, yeah, sorry. 00:39:53.199 --> 00:39:55.920 Yeah, um that was that was raised before I was thinking. 00:39:56.239 --> 00:40:19.519 Um LePage obviously has name recognition, even though I know Dunlap does too, but I I just it just seems like that would be an area that LePage would fare better in, and and I just don't think that Dunlap really necessarily has the uh I don't know the the gusto or the bravado, yeah, the juice, yeah, to get him over the victory line. 00:40:19.840 --> 00:40:27.920 So I feel like that's uh that's an area LePage is very much uh it's a part of Maine where LePage I think just has a major advantage. 00:40:28.960 --> 00:40:40.320 Last four polls in C D2 were Dunlap plus four, Dunlap plus two, Dunlap plus six, and tied. 00:40:41.360 --> 00:40:50.880 I was just gonna say, like, like watching the polling in C D2, like it I I just I don't understand how how Dunlap could be that high. 00:40:51.119 --> 00:40:55.679 Like uh nobody likes him, even his own party doesn't seem to like him. 00:40:55.760 --> 00:41:01.119 I I've said since the primary that I have no idea how Dunlap won that primary. 00:41:01.280 --> 00:41:02.800 So just like with that at anything. 00:41:02.880 --> 00:41:04.480 Maybe he's got a secret appeal you don't know about. 00:41:04.800 --> 00:41:08.000 I I guess so, but like nobody's been able to explain it to me yet. 00:41:08.880 --> 00:41:13.360 And I I just I have a really hard time thinking that against LePage in CD2. 00:41:13.840 --> 00:41:16.000 I mean he he's no golden stiff competition. 00:41:16.239 --> 00:41:16.559 That's what I mean. 00:41:16.639 --> 00:41:17.760 He's not he's not Jared Golden. 00:41:18.079 --> 00:41:27.360 Like Golden was a uniquely talented politician, like like he was perfect for what that district needed to elect a more left-wing uh figure. 00:41:27.679 --> 00:41:32.000 He was exactly what they needed, and Dunlap is 100% not that, right? 00:41:32.239 --> 00:41:36.079 And and I I just have such a hard time believing that was polls. 00:41:36.159 --> 00:41:41.519 I'm probably a little below Garrick, like I'd say LePage three or four. 00:41:43.840 --> 00:41:45.840 You said five, yeah. 00:41:46.079 --> 00:41:48.159 Three, four, and five are taken. 00:41:48.480 --> 00:41:52.159 Um LePage six. 00:41:52.480 --> 00:41:54.480 Ooh, so you're going for the bigger win. 00:41:54.639 --> 00:41:56.639 Yeah, I feel like the other ones are too low. 00:41:57.039 --> 00:41:57.360 Okay. 00:41:57.760 --> 00:41:59.280 Why do you feel that they are too low? 00:41:59.440 --> 00:42:02.880 Do you just have a good vibe about uh our friend Paul intuition? 00:42:03.519 --> 00:42:07.679 I think he's gonna win by more than one or two. 00:42:08.559 --> 00:42:09.360 Comfortable win. 00:42:09.519 --> 00:42:13.280 Well, I mean, the certainly the past performance of polls would seem to agree with you. 00:42:13.360 --> 00:42:31.519 I mean, I think the one one of the wildest ones I ever saw was I think that they had I think that they had um Hillary Clinton beating Donald Trump in CD2 specifically back in 2016 by like 15 points or 20 points or something huge like that, and then Trump won by like 10. 00:42:31.760 --> 00:42:36.719 So it's like a 30-point swing in the polls, and that's kind of getting what I'm talking about about then not knowing how to do this district. 00:42:36.800 --> 00:42:38.159 Like they just they just don't know how. 00:42:38.239 --> 00:42:38.559 Yeah. 00:42:38.800 -->

00:42:47.840 Um, but you know, they have had somewhat better track records in the golden uh space, but I'm wondering whether or not that was just because he was an overperformer. 00:42:48.000 --> 00:42:48.239 Yeah. 00:42:48.400 --> 00:42:52.159 So like their polls were accidentally more accurate in a way. 00:42:52.480 --> 00:42:56.880 Didn't weren't the last few races with Golden pretty close? 00:42:57.039 --> 00:42:58.159 Like I thought almost all of them. 00:42:58.400 --> 00:42:58.800 They're all close. 00:42:59.039 --> 00:43:00.559 They have all been pretty neck and neck. 00:43:00.719 --> 00:43:01.360 Yeah. 00:43:01.840 --> 00:43:10.480 So that's why like when I think of LePage, you know, who was the former governor of the state of Maine and uh is from Lewiston and everything like that. 00:43:10.559 --> 00:43:16.079 When I think deeply popular in that district, I can yeah, see, I just imagine him blowing Dunlap out of the water. 00:43:16.320 --> 00:43:26.559 If you go to Maine Politicaldata.com and you check out the historical polling section, which is pretty awesome, uh, there was a survey USA poll out of CD2 in 2024. 00:43:26.639 --> 00:43:27.679 So that was the last election. 00:43:27.760 --> 00:43:28.880 It was the last one here. 00:43:29.039 --> 00:43:33.360 And the survey USA showed Golden beating Terrier 53 to 41. 00:43:33.599 --> 00:43:37.519 And the actual results were 50.3 to 49.6. 00:43:37.760 --> 00:43:39.360 It was extremely close, obviously. 00:43:39.440 --> 00:43:43.760 So they had this margin of 12 points, and it ended up being basically tied. 00:43:44.079 --> 00:43:47.119 It's like they don't know how to pull, they don't know how to pull it. 00:43:47.360 --> 00:43:47.840 So I don't know. 00:43:48.079 --> 00:43:50.000 Learn to pull it, you may be right, Emily. 00:43:50.079 --> 00:43:50.800 You may you may be right. 00:43:50.960 --> 00:43:52.719 Maybe, maybe it's more than six. 00:43:52.800 --> 00:43:53.199 I don't know. 00:43:53.360 --> 00:43:55.199 Um, I kind of suspect otherwise, though. 00:43:55.280 --> 00:43:57.599 Like I the the the year is what's getting to me. 00:43:57.760 --> 00:43:59.599 Yeah, another another new. 00:44:00.159 --> 00:44:01.519 Neutral site thing, he would crush her. 00:44:01.679 --> 00:44:02.960 Uh crush him, excuse me. 00:44:03.199 --> 00:44:05.840 Um but this year I think that's gonna be muted a little bit. 00:44:05.920 --> 00:44:16.079 And and I I know that, you know, I think both the Collins folks and the LePage folks are like nervous a little bit, you know, because they're I'm sure their internal polling is showing it's just as close as anything else. 00:44:16.320 --> 00:44:18.239 So I mean, I I don't know, it's possible. 00:44:18.480 --> 00:44:21.199 I think it's more like two-ish. 00:44:22.079 --> 00:44:22.960 Give or take. 00:44:23.440 --> 00:44:25.440 But I think this would be the only one like that though. 00:44:25.519 --> 00:44:35.039 Like if he runs for re-election, which I suspect he will

at least once uh after getting elected, I think like the next election he wins by like 15 or 20 or something like that, just because it's a more normal year. 00:44:35.360 --> 00:44:42.400 Um and you know, again, he he lost in 2022 statewide by 13 points, and he still won the second district. 00:44:42.480 --> 00:44:47.280 So I just do I think that Matt Dunlap is stronger than Janet Mills in the second district? 00:44:48.800 --> 00:44:49.360 I don't think so. 00:44:50.400 --> 00:45:01.920 And you know, is is LePage, did he do anything like he did in 2022, which was to like have bad debate performances and you know things that kind of uh contributed to him not doing so well overall? 00:45:02.400 --> 00:45:03.119 I don't think so. 00:45:03.280 --> 00:45:07.039 You know, it's just all the fundamentals line up with him probably being okay. 00:45:07.360 --> 00:45:09.119 And I was saying this to somebody earlier too. 00:45:09.280 --> 00:45:17.280 This may be, if he does win, this is maybe the only place in America where someone flips a blue seat to a red seat this year. 00:45:18.239 --> 00:45:24.559 In 1994, Maine's second congressional district was exactly like that, in case anybody didn't know that. 00:45:24.719 --> 00:45:30.079 That was the Republican Revolution year, when Republicans won, I think, like almost 60 seats at 54 or something like that. 00:45:30.159 --> 00:45:33.199 Um, it was the Newt Gingridge contract with America year. 00:45:33.360 --> 00:45:39.119 And the only seat in America that went from red to blue was the CD2 race. 00:45:39.280 --> 00:45:41.679 And John Baldacci somehow managed to pull that one off. 00:45:41.840 --> 00:45:42.559 Beating who? 00:45:42.719 --> 00:45:43.119 Who? 00:45:43.280 --> 00:45:43.840 Anybody? 00:45:44.000 --> 00:45:44.880 anybody? 00:45:47.360 --> 00:45:52.800 Oh I'm deeply sipping for my cup here as you don't answer my question. 00:45:54.079 --> 00:45:55.199 You don't know. 00:45:55.920 --> 00:45:56.880 Rick Bennett. 00:45:57.360 --> 00:46:03.840 Oh Rick Bennett, apparently the only Republican in America that could lose that race that year for some reason. 00:46:04.079 --> 00:46:04.800 That's right, that's right. 00:46:04.960 --> 00:46:05.199 Yeah. 00:46:05.360 --> 00:46:06.239 Wow, that's wild. 00:46:06.400 --> 00:46:06.639 Yeah. 00:46:09.519 --> 00:46:26.079 That is the weird part about this year, like you've mentioned multiple times now, is the fact that Trump is president and so many people will just vote against Republicans for that reason, even though in a normal year or whatever, uh you know, just generally speaking, there would be maybe the Republicans would be more favorable. 00:46:26.400 --> 00:46:29.760 Uh yeah, if it was like a Democrat president, etc. 00:46:29.920 --> 00:46:30.159 etc. 00:46:30.719 --> 00:46:45.039 Um But but again, though that well, that's that's that is the weird part about this era that we're in, is the fact that I know how much antipathy there is towards Trump, but at the same time, the left has never been so far left. 00:46:45.440 --> 00:46:57.840 So it's like their politics are so unpalatable, and we've seen the destruction of it that has been that has wrought um, you know, that that has been introduced here in the state of Maine and nationally. 00:46:58.079 --> 00:46:59.519 So that's what's interesting, I guess. 00:46:59.599 --> 00:47:02.000 It's like we've said that a number of times on this podcast, right? 00:47:02.079 --> 00:47:03.199 If they were just normal, right? 00:47:03.280 --> 00:47:03.760 That's what I mean. 00:47:03.920 --> 00:47:06.559 If they were just normal, they would win everything this year. 00:47:06.800 --> 00:47:06.960 Right. 00:47:07.119 --> 00:47:17.840 If they if they could just be, yeah, a little bit closer to the center like they were for decades, literally decades, until five minutes ago, then I they would they're they would have a probably better shot. 00:47:18.159 --> 00:47:19.199 Yeah, but what happens? 00:47:19.280 --> 00:47:25.519 Troy Jackson brings to the state of Maine Bernie Sanders, AOC, and Elizabeth Warren as his main headliners. 00:47:25.599 --> 00:47:26.800 Right because that's who he is. 00:47:27.039 --> 00:47:29.360 Yeah, all the all the pro breadline people. 00:47:31.920 --> 00:47:32.239 Yeah. 00:47:32.400 --> 00:47:33.679 Okay, well, that's your predictions. 00:47:33.760 --> 00:47:35.360 That is you've got it right there. 00:47:35.440 --> 00:47:39.840 I guess we could do house and senate too, I suppose, with uh the main house and the main senate. 00:47:40.079 --> 00:47:41.840 But I'm not sure if you guys care. 00:47:42.079 --> 00:47:45.760 I mean, uh what just what would you what do you do you think of flips house? 00:47:45.920 --> 00:47:46.880 That's mainly what I care about. 00:47:47.119 --> 00:47:51.039 In a neutral year, if it wasn't for the democratic wave, I think it absolutely would. 00:47:51.199 --> 00:47:57.920 Um this year, I sadly expect us to lose uh the right, the political right to lose a handful of seats. 00:47:58.000 --> 00:47:58.239 Yeah. 00:47:58.559 --> 00:48:04.559 Just and well, that's that's that's sad because this has been a year where they actually recruited a lot of good candidates. 00:48:04.639 --> 00:48:06.559 Um, and I think they've been doing a lot of hard work. 00:48:06.639 --> 00:48:09.920 And you know, there still is an outside shot of them taking it back, I suppose. 00:48:10.000 --> 00:48:18.079 But I just think I have studied past elections in the state, and you can find out a lot about it on mainpoliticaldata.com. 00:48:18.719 --> 00:48:24.159 And it's just a very it the state is very susceptible to national wins in the state legislature. 00:48:24.320 --> 00:48:31.039 So it's almost like not important whether or not the local person running is awesome and did a lot of hard work. 00:48:31.280 --> 00:48:36.480 If they just want to send a message to Trump, like that's just one of the casualties, is those littler races. 00:48:36.559 -->

00:48:37.760 So we'll see. 00:48:37.920 --> 00:48:45.199 I mean, it's gonna be it'll be you'll find out, I think, pretty early in the night what kind of night it's gonna be, generally speaking. 00:48:45.360 --> 00:48:51.840 Because you'll see some of these early towns back, and it's oh my god, it's way more blue, or it's way less blue than we thought, and you'll know soon. 00:48:51.920 --> 00:49:01.519 And and you know, in fairness, in 2022, people thought it was gonna be all the polling said it was gonna be a you know, beat red, holy crap, every Democrat ever is gonna lose kind of year, and it wasn't. 00:49:02.000 --> 00:49:03.440 So it's the red tsunami. 00:49:04.400 --> 00:49:04.880 You never know. 00:49:05.039 --> 00:49:05.840 You never know. 00:49:06.079 --> 00:49:13.440 Uh, other news items on my list here, uh, before we leave elections and then get into fraud arrests in Maine and then close the show. 00:49:13.599 --> 00:49:24.639 Um, I have to ask you about the drama in Alaska right now, and maybe that's part of a of a prediction question for everybody about the national house and senate and what what happens there. 00:49:24.719 --> 00:49:27.360 Like, do the Democrats retake the Senate and stuff like that? 00:49:27.440 --> 00:49:39.920 But key to them retaking the Senate is Alaska, which you wouldn't have really said five or six months ago, but you definitely are seeing now because Mary Peltola, the Democrat, is running basically even with Dan S. 00:49:40.159 --> 00:49:40.800 Sullivan? 00:49:41.360 --> 00:49:42.320 I think he's Dan S. 00:49:43.119 --> 00:49:44.400 The other guy is Dan J. 00:49:45.199 --> 00:49:46.159 And I think I got it right. 00:49:46.239 --> 00:49:46.960 I think it's Dan S. 00:49:47.119 --> 00:49:48.079 is the actual incumbent. 00:49:48.239 --> 00:50:14.000 But um, there are two Dan Sullivan's running in Alaska, and the New York Times broke uh just in the last 24 hours a story that said that despite her claiming that she had nothing to do with it and her people had nothing to do with it, it was indeed Mary Peltola's campaign and her herself, uh, particularly her people, but uh they went and literally like got into the voter file and were looking for anybody named Dan Sullivan. 00:50:14.800 --> 00:50:15.599 And they found a lot. 00:50:15.760 --> 00:50:25.119 There was many Dan Sullivans, and they convinced this dude who's just like a school teacher or retired school teacher or something like that, to run in this race. 00:50:25.280 --> 00:50:31.280 And the guys from a remote, like a really remote part of Alaska, like you can't get there outside of a plane or a boat. 00:50:31.519 --> 00:50:34.000 So he's like way out there, and he's not campaigning at all. 00:50:34.079 --> 00:50:37.280 He's just on the ballot, and he's on the ballot as Dan J. 00:50:37.440 --> 00:50:38.079 Sullivan. 00:50:38.320 --> 00:50:49.199 And their hope was that they would cause confusion and that people would vote for the wrong Dan Sullivan, and that big Dan would lose the race because you know he lost a few thousand votes here and there. 00:50:49.679 --> 00:50:50.880 Shenanigans, I say. 00:50:51.039 --> 00:50:52.000 Shenanigans. 00:50:52.159 --> 00:50:53.679 Should that here's a question. 00:50:53.920 --> 00:50:55.440 Should that be illegal? 00:50:56.239 --> 00:50:56.639 Yes. 00:50:57.039 --> 00:50:57.280 Yes. 00:50:57.519 --> 00:51:03.920 I think it's really funny, but I think it's that you shouldn't be able to do it. 00:51:04.079 --> 00:51:05.519 And if you do, you should get in trouble. 00:51:05.760 --> 00:51:07.760 Yeah, that just doesn't seem right to me. 00:51:08.079 --> 00:51:11.440 Electioneering, maybe, would be the I mean, by the way, it could be illegal. 00:51:11.519 --> 00:51:15.599 Um, that's sort of the DOJ already filed suit and they're gonna probably go to court over it. 00:51:15.679 --> 00:51:17.199 So maybe it already is illegal. 00:51:17.360 --> 00:51:22.800 I kind of don't think it is, but uh I sort of think I'm with Emily on this one that it should be because that's really gross. 00:51:22.960 --> 00:51:26.880 And from the we must save democracy people, it is very rich. 00:51:27.280 --> 00:51:30.559 Yeah, the those the pro-democracy people have so many tricks up their sleeve. 00:51:30.880 --> 00:51:36.079 Democracy defenders, yeah, who who actively subvert democracy? 00:51:37.599 --> 00:51:38.159 Yeah, yeah. 00:51:38.400 --> 00:51:40.159 Is it the recruiting that you have a problem with? 00:51:40.320 --> 00:51:47.360 Because I guess like like my only other thought with this is like, does that mean that if you have the same name as another candidate, you can't run? 00:51:47.840 --> 00:51:48.559 Do you get what I'm saying? 00:51:48.639 --> 00:51:52.719 Like, like that's my that's my only concern with which would be difficult if somebody was named John Smith. 00:51:52.880 --> 00:51:53.119 Right. 00:51:53.679 --> 00:51:54.239 Right, exactly. 00:51:54.320 --> 00:51:59.440 Like, like, are you know, is that getting to something weird where you say anybody with this name can't run? 00:51:59.599 --> 00:52:01.679 Like, like that feels kind of weird to me. 00:52:01.840 --> 00:52:04.000 I I don't think that's what I think should be illegal. 00:52:04.079 --> 00:52:04.239 Yeah. 00:52:04.400 --> 00:52:07.760 Because I mean, how would you even decide who the one who's allowed to and not allowed to is? 00:52:07.920 --> 00:52:08.880 Like, you can't do that. 00:52:09.119 --> 00:52:21.599 But a political campaign who is the opponent of a person attempting to introduce confusion into the electorate, yeah, by by personally recruiting someone to run with the same name, they're the ones that should get in trouble. 00:52:21.760 --> 00:52:22.880 Like, I don't think Dan J. 00:52:23.039 --> 00:52:24.400 Sullivan should get in trouble. 00:52:24.639 --> 00:52:25.760 Although, what an idiot. 00:52:26.000 --> 00:52:27.360 Like, why are you what are you doing, man? 00:52:27.440 --> 00:52:28.000 You

know what I mean? 00:52:28.239 --> 00:52:33.519 But I do think I do think that Peltola and particularly her political consultants should get in. 00:52:34.239 --> 00:52:34.960 They should go to jail. 00:52:35.119 --> 00:52:35.360 Yeah. 00:52:35.519 --> 00:52:36.559 They should go to jail. 00:52:36.800 --> 00:52:37.679 Jail, I say. 00:52:37.920 --> 00:52:38.239 Yeah. 00:52:38.400 --> 00:52:39.199 I think so. 00:52:39.440 --> 00:52:39.760 I don't know. 00:52:39.840 --> 00:52:40.480 You think it should be? 00:52:40.880 --> 00:52:43.280 Do not Pasco, do not collect$100 jail. 00:52:43.519 --> 00:52:49.280 Um, yeah, I mean, it sounds like a pretty dirty tactic, and it's like you said, electioneering question mark. 00:52:49.599 --> 00:52:51.440 Seems like the only thing I could come up with. 00:52:51.679 --> 00:52:52.000 Right. 00:52:52.320 --> 00:52:52.719 Yeah. 00:52:53.039 --> 00:53:09.039 So I don't know, but like, you know, the the New York Times piece, in their desperate attempt to try to like sort of clean up the mess a little bit for Peltola, they said that, well, you know, ballot uh shenanigans are common and everybody does it. 00:53:09.199 --> 00:53:09.920 They literally said that. 00:53:10.000 --> 00:53:11.440 They're like, both parties do it. 00:53:11.599 --> 00:53:13.599 And yeah, they do, but they don't do this. 00:53:13.840 --> 00:53:16.960 Like, this is this is like what are the Republicans doing in Maine right now? 00:53:17.039 --> 00:53:24.719 There's some places where they recruited an independent to run instead of a Republican, and they have no Republican, and that's that's a choice. 00:53:24.880 --> 00:53:31.199 Like they made a choice for their own best interest because they think that independent would vote with them, and it's the more palatable option. 00:53:31.280 --> 00:53:36.559 So they've gone and recruited somebody to do that, and that's I think a legitimate thing to do. 00:53:36.719 --> 00:53:41.760 I think, you know, it's maybe a little bit gross, but I don't think it's like something that should be illegal necessarily. 00:53:42.000 --> 00:53:51.119 But that's a big difference between I want to intentionally make everyone confused about who they're voting for so that their vote is not for the person they intended to vote for. 00:53:51.280 --> 00:53:52.079 Yeah, yeah, yeah. 00:53:52.239 --> 00:53:52.880 You know what I mean? 00:53:52.960 --> 00:54:06.239 Like that's pretty much yeah, it kind of reminds me of how uh Shana Bellows was trying to word the um protect girl sports bill in such a way as to, you know, uh I guess not confuse people necessarily, but yes, confuse people. 00:54:06.400 --> 00:54:07.039 I guess, yeah. 00:54:07.440 --> 00:54:09.119 She did do that to the voter ID question. 00:54:09.360 --> 00:54:09.920 Intention, yeah. 00:54:10.079 --> 00:54:18.400 Like, and it's obviously deliberate, it's intentional, and it's and it is maliciously designed um to essentially mislead people. 00:54:18.719 --> 00:54:21.440 So

uh yeah, we don't like those dirty tactics. 00:54:21.760 --> 00:54:39.199 Speaking of shenanigans, did you guys also see I think it was just this morning that it was that it was uh published um that there was that the Democrats like Troy Jackson's campaign basically hired a woman to be in an ad for Troy Jackson by all telling her it was a Susan Collins ad. 00:54:39.440 --> 00:54:39.599 Yeah. 00:54:39.840 --> 00:54:42.000 Well, she said she thought it was a Susan Collins ad. 00:54:42.079 --> 00:54:43.760 So I think it's so she might have been confused. 00:54:44.000 --> 00:54:45.840 It's unclear what she was told. 00:54:46.000 --> 00:54:46.239 Right. 00:54:46.400 --> 00:54:48.480 But she clearly didn't want to be in a Troy Jackson ad. 00:54:48.719 --> 00:54:48.880 Right. 00:54:48.960 --> 00:54:49.440 Yeah, clearly. 00:54:49.679 --> 00:54:50.559 Because she doesn't like him. 00:54:50.719 --> 00:54:51.039 Right. 00:54:51.199 --> 00:54:55.119 So it's like yeah, it's like where was the um communication breakdown there? 00:54:55.280 --> 00:54:57.840 Yeah, I was yeah, I saw her interviewed in a laundromat. 00:54:57.920 --> 00:55:00.400 So well, I th what they were doing is like the things are hard, right? 00:55:00.480 --> 00:55:03.840 Like, tell us about how hard it is to own a business, you know, today, or something like that. 00:55:03.920 --> 00:55:10.960 And so she answered the questions and did a thing, and then they featured her in the Yeah, and but they maybe they didn't specify that it's gonna be for Troy Jackson who it could be. 00:55:11.199 --> 00:55:11.840 They definitely did not. 00:55:12.079 --> 00:55:12.239 Right. 00:55:12.320 --> 00:55:13.360 That's kind of what it sounds like. 00:55:13.519 --> 00:55:14.159 Yeah, yeah. 00:55:14.400 --> 00:55:15.519 So I did see that. 00:55:15.679 --> 00:55:16.320 I did see that. 00:55:16.639 --> 00:55:16.880 Thank you. 00:55:16.960 --> 00:55:18.079 Thank you for bringing that up. 00:55:18.400 --> 00:55:22.239 Did you also see the ads that his consultants ran that had a fake main town that wasn't real? 00:55:22.400 --> 00:55:23.280 Yeah, oh yeah. 00:55:23.360 --> 00:55:28.320 Well, was it uh new it was something that they it's like in Connecticut, uh yeah, that's all I saw. 00:55:28.400 --> 00:55:29.599 It was like town of Connecticut, yeah. 00:55:29.760 --> 00:55:31.199 Yeah, like Newton or something like that. 00:55:31.679 --> 00:55:32.320 It was new something. 00:55:33.039 --> 00:55:33.519 Newburgh? 00:55:33.679 --> 00:55:34.559 No, Newburgh's a real. 00:55:34.719 --> 00:55:35.840 I was gonna say, I think that is a real town. 00:55:35.920 --> 00:55:36.880 I used to live next to Newburgh. 00:55:37.039 --> 00:55:37.360 Oh, okay. 00:55:37.440 --> 00:55:38.000 Yeah. 00:55:38.239 --> 00:55:39.920 Um, yeah, but it was something like that. 00:55:40.000 --> 00:55:43.039 It's like it kind of sounds like a main town, but it definitely but it's not. 00:55:43.360 --> 00:55:43.840 But it's not. 00:55:43.920 --> 00:55:45.679 It sounds like it to a California consultant. 00:55:46.239 --> 00:55:51.039 Yeah, we also learned that Troy Jackson uh knows how to play a cord of wood. 00:55:51.440 --> 00:55:53.920 Not stack, but play. 00:55:56.639 --> 00:55:57.599 You don't know what that is, right? 00:55:57.760 --> 00:55:59.599 I I've no heard vaguely about it. 00:55:59.920 --> 00:56:02.239 So have you heard of the controversy of this Bill Green ad? 00:56:02.400 --> 00:56:02.719 Yes. 00:56:02.880 --> 00:56:04.320 Okay, so you know half the story then. 00:56:04.559 --> 00:56:09.440 So Bill Green comes out and in this commercial, and I mean, come on, guys. 00:56:09.519 --> 00:56:11.440 Like, this is what you're choosing to get spun up. 00:56:11.599 --> 00:56:14.880 Like Jordan Wood was losing his mind over it, and like, who cares what Jordan Wood says? 00:56:14.960 --> 00:56:24.159 Yeah, um, but he basically said, uh, you know, I know Troy Jackson too, and we're not higher, we're not uh asking him to buy us a court of wood. 00:56:24.239 --> 00:56:25.119 We're hiring a U.S. 00:56:25.199 --> 00:56:25.519 senator. 00:56:25.599 --> 00:56:28.400 Like, you know, basically, like this guy's not up to it. 00:56:28.880 --> 00:56:32.239 He's he's can buy you a quarter wood, but he's not gonna vote for you. 00:56:32.400 --> 00:56:44.559 Uh and so everybody got all spun up, or everybody on the Democratic side got spun up that he's like insulting working class maters, which is definitely something Bill Green would you know, Bill Green's Maine, where he spent all that time in rural Maine doing stuff. 00:56:44.719 --> 00:56:44.960 Yeah. 00:56:45.199 --> 00:56:47.599 Um, so they tried to make it into a controversy or whatever. 00:56:47.679 --> 00:56:53.360 And then so Troy decided to try to hop on it, and he had a social media post of the of the video. 00:56:53.679 --> 00:56:54.480 Yeah, he shared it. 00:56:54.639 --> 00:56:55.440 And what did he say? 00:56:55.519 --> 00:56:58.079 He's like, I I buy a cord of wood every day or something. 00:56:58.320 --> 00:56:58.719 Something like that. 00:56:59.199 --> 00:57:01.199 He spelled it C-H-O-R-D. 00:57:02.559 --> 00:57:04.960 Like, I'm playing a cord on my guitar. 00:57:05.199 --> 00:57:06.639 Yeah, let's spell it. 00:57:07.440 --> 00:57:14.239 And and and uh Jason Savage said to me this morning that would be like a carpenter not being able to spell the word inch. 00:57:14.880 --> 00:57:20.639 Yeah, because of how often a guy like that has to have what a cord of wood is and make orders for cords of wood and whatever. 00:57:20.800 --> 00:57:29.280 Like you've probably written that out or seen it a thousand times every year if you're a northern main guy who works with wood, right? 00:57:29.440 --> 00:57:31.199 But you don't know how to spell the word cord. 00:57:31.679 --> 00:57:34.079 Is that disqualifying for being a US senator? 00:57:34.639 --> 00:57:35.039 Absolutely. 00:57:35.440 --> 00:57:35.920 Probably not. 00:57:37.280 -->

00:57:39.039 That should be put in the constitution. 00:57:39.440 --> 00:57:41.840 You can't spell cord the right way. 00:57:42.239 --> 00:57:44.079 Oh, it's such a funny gaff, though. 00:57:44.239 --> 00:57:50.639 Yeah, it's like, but with all these gas, like campaign gaffes, like the yeah, the town that's not in Maine, the Court of Wood. 00:57:50.719 --> 00:57:54.480 Um, I mean, the fact that he got booted from the Facebook group is which is funny. 00:57:54.559 --> 00:57:56.159 It's not necessarily a gaff, but I don't know. 00:57:56.159 --> 00:58:02.239 I feel like there's been multiple gaffes so far um telling the senator to shut up, which not a gaff. 00:58:02.719 --> 00:58:07.280 That's been that's been turned into some mighty impressive political ads in the last week and a half or so. 00:58:07.440 --> 00:58:12.719 They that is in every Susan Collins ad right now because oh, Droy Jackson told her to shut up. 00:58:12.960 --> 00:58:14.239 It seems so natural to him. 00:58:15.519 --> 00:58:18.320 Yeah, it was like yeah, like knee-jerk, yeah, just like instinctual. 00:58:18.719 --> 00:58:19.199 Yep. 00:58:19.920 --> 00:58:21.440 So what a winner. 00:58:21.679 --> 00:58:22.559 What a winner indeed. 00:58:22.639 --> 00:58:33.280 All right, final topic before we get out of here, and we must, because we have things to do today, uh, would be totally non-political in nature, really, although it could, I suppose, play into the elections a little bit. 00:58:33.440 --> 00:58:40.559 But there has been much said about fraud in Maine's Medicaid system, uh, Maine care, for quite some time. 00:58:40.639 --> 00:58:41.920 And why are we talking about that again? 00:58:42.000 --> 00:58:46.960 Because the Maine Wire reported on it, and no one else did, and it became a thing because of their work. 00:58:47.119 --> 00:58:48.880 Just want to make sure I point that out. 00:58:49.199 --> 00:58:52.079 It is the big F-word of 2026 for sure. 00:58:52.400 --> 00:58:53.039 For sure it is. 00:58:53.119 --> 00:58:58.400 And of course, it's not just us, it's Minnesota, and there's several others that are dealing with the same Medicaid fraud problem. 00:58:58.719 --> 00:59:01.599 Uh, but anyway, the first arrests have now been made. 00:59:01.679 --> 00:59:02.239 Uh, the U.S. 00:59:02.400 --> 00:59:04.960 attorney in Maine, I think it was six people, right? 00:59:05.039 --> 00:59:05.920 Uh, Montana. 00:59:06.000 --> 00:59:09.440 Yeah, it was six people were actually arrested and charged. 00:59:09.519 --> 00:59:17.599 Um, although I think there's other people that they have on their list that uh maybe have already fled the country and are not available to be arrested, perhaps right now. 00:59:17.760 --> 00:59:37.519 But uh long and the short of it is that the the whole scheme that was more or less uncovered long ago now, where they were reimbursed for things they didn't do and they're not real companies and everything else, and uh are personally enriching themselves, uh, is now

likely going to land all of them in jail for a long time with big mighty fines. 00:59:37.760 --> 00:59:47.119 Yeah, I think I saw just for one of the charges, like the conspiracy to defraud or whatever, is like a 10-year sentence or maybe even 20-year sentence. 00:59:47.199 --> 00:59:50.480 It was something in something you know significant, and that's just one of the charges. 00:59:50.639 --> 00:59:56.079 So, and I think the total fines for the charges was like$250,000. 00:59:56.480 --> 00:59:59.519 I don't know if that's per person, but it's it's like some astronomical amount. 00:59:59.840 --> 01:00:02.079 I think every charge had like a$250k on it. 01:00:02.400 --> 01:00:02.880 Yeah, yeah. 01:00:03.119 --> 01:00:08.320 So all of them together for some of them, um maybe like a million dollars or more exceeding that, yeah. 01:00:08.559 --> 01:00:09.199 Yep. 01:00:09.519 --> 01:00:11.199 Um, so that's colorful. 01:00:11.440 --> 01:00:13.280 Does anybody care about that in the election, you think? 01:00:13.599 --> 01:00:17.760 I think I I I think like like I mean, a lot of artists have been running on that. 01:00:17.840 --> 01:00:19.599 I mean, they're a lot of voters do for sure. 01:00:19.760 --> 01:00:22.000 There are literally signs on the side of the road saying, Stop fraud. 01:00:22.320 --> 01:00:23.039 Right, stop fraud. 01:00:23.599 --> 01:00:24.239 Right, exactly. 01:00:24.320 --> 01:00:30.079 You know, so I I think that that has been made on into ads and made into signs for a reason. 01:00:30.159 --> 01:00:31.679 A lot of voters do care about it. 01:00:31.840 --> 01:00:36.960 But I I think that the voters that like really cared about it, they already believed it was happening. 01:00:37.119 --> 01:00:40.400 Yeah, you know, and like oh just another fraud story. 01:00:40.639 --> 01:00:40.800 Right. 01:00:40.960 --> 01:00:44.880 This close to the election, I don't know if it will make that big of a difference. 01:00:45.039 --> 01:00:45.280 Yeah. 01:00:45.519 --> 01:00:55.519 You know, like uh I I just think the people that would have been swayed by that have were already swayed by the abundant evidence that existed before the arrests were made. 01:00:55.920 --> 01:00:59.920 You know, like it's been a defense on the left for a while now, like, oh, show us the arrests. 01:01:00.000 --> 01:01:01.039 This isn't really happening. 01:01:01.119 --> 01:01:04.960 And it's like, okay, well, we can do that now, but I don't think that'll still convince them. 01:01:05.199 --> 01:01:10.320 You know, yeah, they're because they're already so animated by the fraud that's been happening already. 01:01:10.639 --> 01:01:21.519 I mean, there might be a handful of independents that you know, I mean really hate fraud and it pushes them over the edge to either get out to vote or to you know switch, you know, from from D to R. 01:01:21.599 --> 01:01:24.159 I mean, it's possible, but I don't think it'll be any significant amount. 01:01:24.239 --> 01:01:28.320 Nothing

enough to swing any real weight in the election. 01:01:28.639 --> 01:01:35.679 According to uh Steve Robinson, too, the the owner of the uh so it's community, uh what is it called? 01:01:35.840 --> 01:01:38.320 Community home health care. 01:01:38.719 --> 01:01:39.840 Uh I mix them up. 01:01:39.920 --> 01:01:40.639 They're they all sound the same. 01:01:40.880 --> 01:01:41.440 I know that's the thing. 01:01:41.519 --> 01:01:47.360 Uh then there's legit home care, there's decent home care, there's all sorts of yeah, subpar home care. 01:01:48.960 --> 01:01:51.360 Um no, this the Faudulent home care. 01:01:51.760 --> 01:01:53.199 Straight up Learing Center. 01:01:53.440 --> 01:01:54.079 Uh yeah. 01:01:54.320 --> 01:01:58.719 Um the owner evidently, I can't remember what her name is. 01:01:58.800 --> 01:02:03.360 Um, but she she, or maybe it's just like someone who's involved in the organization. 01:02:03.599 --> 01:02:09.360 She evidently bought a massive apartment complex in Hollowell. 01:02:09.519 --> 01:02:12.239 I can't remember what year, but she's owned it for a while now. 01:02:12.480 --> 01:02:18.400 And supposedly, I mean, according to Steve Robinson, she bought it for two and a half million dollars cash. 01:02:19.039 --> 01:02:19.920 Totally legitimate. 01:02:20.000 --> 01:02:21.280 Because I walk around with cash. 01:02:21.519 --> 01:02:21.679 Yeah. 01:02:22.000 --> 01:02:22.880 Two and a half million. 01:02:23.119 --> 01:02:23.360 Yeah. 01:02:23.519 --> 01:02:34.559 So I mean, this is a this is a quote unquote business who has billed the state of Maine over 45 million dollars over the course of I think seven years, if I'm not mistaken. 01:02:34.719 --> 01:02:38.719 Um, and it's funny because they operate in like a pretty small space. 01:02:38.880 --> 01:02:39.039 Yeah. 01:02:39.199 --> 01:02:40.559 So it's like they always do. 01:02:40.800 --> 01:02:41.039 Yeah. 01:02:41.119 --> 01:02:53.519 So uh a business that's billing the state of Maine tens of millions of dollars, or has billed the state of Maine, tens of millions of dollars operates in uh, you know, in an office the size of a shoe closet. 01:02:53.760 --> 01:02:54.800 Practically, yeah, yeah. 01:02:55.199 --> 01:02:57.760 And it's especially frustrating to me. 01:02:57.840 --> 01:03:00.960 Like, but then people go and like attack the blueprint like crazy. 01:03:01.119 --> 01:03:01.599 You know what I mean? 01:03:01.679 --> 01:03:06.079 For us saying, like, hey, you you know, you shouldn't scale down the size of a lot of these things. 01:03:06.159 --> 01:03:13.119 You can, you know, scale back or eliminate you know, main care for expansion adults, and then they freak out like we're trying to kill people. 01:03:13.280 --> 01:03:16.320 And it's like, guys, like look at what is happening. 01:03:16.480 --> 01:03:27.119 Clearly, there is waste, there is abuse, and they just aren't willing to accept that and instead just attack every principle for trying to reduce it as everything is legitimate. 01:03:27.280 --> 01:03:28.880 The government has needs all this money. 01:03:29.039 --> 01:03:34.159 How dare you try to take away any single cent from you know our all-powerful government? 01:03:34.400 --> 01:03:34.960 Right, yeah. 01:03:35.039 --> 01:03:36.559 Uh and it's just inferior. 01:03:36.800 --> 01:03:43.039 Meanwhile, 10 like 45 million dollars has gone to a a you know apparently fraudulent business. 01:03:43.119 --> 01:03:44.480 Yeah, and that's just one, right? 01:03:44.639 --> 01:03:46.239 Because we know that that's just the tip of the iceberg. 01:03:46.320 --> 01:03:52.320 And then there was like the$45 million autism, like improper um payments to uh what is it, what is it? 01:03:52.400 --> 01:03:53.519 Uh autism services, yeah. 01:03:53.760 --> 01:03:54.960 Autism services, right? 01:03:55.119 --> 01:03:57.679 Um, it's like these are tens of millions of dollars. 01:03:57.760 --> 01:04:15.599 And and and and that's just two examples because then there's all the other obviously bogus businesses that has been that have been billing the state of Maine hundreds of thousands of dollars, if not millions, which means that like it certainly all this stuff adds up to over like hundreds of millions of dollars. 01:04:15.760 --> 01:04:20.719 And in the state of Maine, which is a very poor state, it it is a you know what I mean? 01:04:20.960 --> 01:04:28.880 It's like we are not California, we are a rural state with 1.4 million people, and it's and it's a very blue-collar state for the most part. 01:04:29.119 --> 01:04:56.320 And now all these people that the main wire have exposed have have taken money that we have given to the state, every and everyone here has given to the state, and use it to enrich themselves to buy what whether it's a two and a half million dollar apartment complex in Hollowell or a you know almost million dollar, maybe over a million dollar house in Falmouth, the owner of Gateway Community Services, the one who's now on the Lamb in um, I don't know, I think in somewhere in Somalia. 01:04:56.960 --> 01:05:03.920 Um, it's like it's it's just genuinely wild to me uh that there can be that much indifference. 01:05:04.159 --> 01:05:05.840 Yeah, and that it's allowed to just continue. 01:05:06.079 --> 01:05:07.199 Yeah, yeah, yeah. 01:05:07.360 --> 01:05:18.400 Um but and I actually did want to ask, like, did you do you guys think that and maybe this is a stupid question, that the DOJ's timing of this was intentional? 01:05:18.719 --> 01:05:20.800 This isn't DOJ, this is the US attorney. 01:05:20.960 --> 01:05:22.079 Oh, okay, okay, that's right. 01:05:22.159 --> 01:05:22.559 That's right. 01:05:23.039 --> 01:05:26.480 Oh, yeah, no, because the DOJ are the ones that are that have people at the polls. 01:05:26.639 --> 01:05:26.800 Right. 01:05:26.960 --> 01:05:28.800 In Portland, it's the observers and stuff. 01:05:29.039 --> 01:05:29.920 That's right, that's right, yeah. 01:05:30.000 --> 01:05:30.960 It's the US

attorney. 01:05:31.039 --> 01:05:31.360 That's right. 01:05:31.519 --> 01:05:31.679 Yeah. 01:05:31.760 --> 01:05:33.519 Um so no, I don't think there's anything behind it. 01:05:33.599 --> 01:05:40.880 In fact, I mean, they said at the press conference that, you know, it takes a long time to build a case like this, and I think that's actually true. 01:05:41.119 --> 01:05:47.119 And yeah, they you know, released it now or whatever, but I mean it's not like this story is gonna get any bigger. 01:05:47.360 --> 01:05:51.360 I think that it's it's already made the you know, that's that's kind of my own answer to my own question, right? 01:05:51.440 --> 01:05:58.000 It's like I don't think it actually matters because the degree to which that issue matters has already sunk into the people who care about it. 01:05:58.159 --> 01:05:58.400 Yeah. 01:05:58.639 --> 01:06:02.159 If you care about fraud and The Medicaid system or whatever, you already care about it. 01:06:02.320 --> 01:06:09.840 So you're probably just applauding that you see the arrests made, but it's not like you didn't care and now you see that and you're like, oh man, now I'm outraged. 01:06:10.320 --> 01:06:10.559 Right? 01:06:10.800 --> 01:06:11.039 Yep. 01:06:11.199 --> 01:06:11.599 It's my guess. 01:06:11.840 --> 01:06:16.079 Well, yeah, it's interesting that in the same week there was the the Bobby Charles campaign fine. 01:06:16.159 --> 01:06:17.360 Or that was this week, right? 01:06:17.519 --> 01:06:17.679 Yeah. 01:06:17.760 --> 01:06:17.840 Yeah. 01:06:18.800 --> 01:06:19.360 25,000? 01:06:19.440 --> 01:06:19.519 Yeah. 01:06:19.679 --> 01:06:21.519 Yeah, that was the the campaign fine. 01:06:21.599 --> 01:06:25.280 And then, but then there was also the all the these uh arrests made. 01:06:25.519 --> 01:06:27.920 That can't be the campaign fine was bullshit. 01:06:28.159 --> 01:06:28.960 It really was. 01:06:29.119 --> 01:06:32.960 I mean, I should they have not had that problem and caught it. 01:06:33.360 --> 01:06:34.400 Yes, obviously. 01:06:34.559 --> 01:06:35.679 But they returned all the money. 01:06:35.840 --> 01:06:37.519 Like it was clearly a clerical error. 01:06:37.679 --> 01:06:51.840 I mean, it's it's it's and and you know, if there was their excuse for it was that they changed, I guess, the either the vendor or the person responsible for the for the like tracking of dollars and the treasury stuff or whatever. 01:06:52.000 --> 01:06:57.760 And in the transition, somehow somebody lost some stuff or something happened where somebody dropped the ball. 01:06:58.079 --> 01:07:04.239 And uh I mean I kind of like actually think that's a very likely actual problem or answer or whatever. 01:07:04.320 --> 01:07:12.880 I think it would have been more than fine to just say, you know, wag your finger at him and say don't do it again, or bad bad dog or whatever, and then just move on. 01:07:12.960 --> 01:07:20.000 Like I d twenty five thousand dollars is if he had kept the money, like if they hadn't already returned it, then it would be one thing. 01:07:20.079 --> 01:07:27.280 But I think that was I hate to say it because it makes something partisan that really shouldn't with the ethics uh stuff. 01:07:27.440 --> 01:07:34.239 But I think when you look at the appointees and who was there and who voted the way that they did, I mean Denny Keshel, Republican, voted against. 01:07:34.400 --> 01:07:36.559 I mean, it's just looks pretty partisan to me. 01:07:37.760 --> 01:07:40.639 And wouldn't that be interesting about a week and a half before the election? 01:07:40.719 --> 01:07:42.079 The little October surprise. 01:07:42.159 --> 01:07:45.760 Oh, we got a big fine for not and the way the press reported it, too. 01:07:45.840 --> 01:07:57.840 They said like Bobby Charles fined for illegal contributions, like making it sound like there was some out-of-state Chinese communist that was funneling millions of dollars into his you know, his campaign or whatever. 01:07:58.800 --> 01:08:04.880 It was literally just that Garrick gave him too much money and like he needed to return it and he forgot to, kind of kind of thing. 01:08:04.960 --> 01:08:05.840 I don't know. 01:08:06.559 --> 01:08:07.119 That's it. 01:08:07.199 --> 01:08:09.760 That was the last thing on my list was actually that 25k thing. 01:08:09.840 --> 01:08:10.960 So there you go, you just hit it. 01:08:11.039 --> 01:08:11.599 Congratulations. 01:08:11.760 --> 01:08:12.880 Am I missing anything? 01:08:12.960 --> 01:08:16.319 Because this is the pre-election prediction market thing here. 01:08:16.399 --> 01:08:18.560 So if we missed anything, we gotta say it now. 01:08:19.039 --> 01:08:24.079 Nope, just come to Freedom and Opportunity next week, November 13th, Friday at noon. 01:08:24.319 --> 01:08:28.319 Make sure you also read our ranked choice voting report and go to mainpoliticaldata.com. 01:08:28.640 --> 01:08:29.920 Um the plugs. 01:08:30.239 --> 01:08:32.479 The plugs shameless self-promotion time. 01:08:32.640 --> 01:08:39.039 Well, Emily, Montana, Garrick, me, uh signing off for this fine Thursday. 01:08:39.119 --> 01:08:46.640 And uh we'll, I guess next week we'll break down uh all the damage that was done and see exactly how these elections went and tell you where we go from here. 01:08:46.880 --> 01:08:48.960 It'll all be on mainpoliticaldata.com too. 01:08:50.880 --> 01:08:51.279 Yes, it will. 01:08:51.600 --> 01:08:52.640 Yes, it will indeed. 01:08:52.720 --> 01:08:54.720 Uh, so we'll see you next time. 01:08:56.079 --> 01:08:58.960 This has been Pine Tree Falls. 01:08:59.600 --> 01:09:04.399 Disrupting the Maine Political Machine, one podcast at a time. 01:09:04.800 --> 01:09:11.279 Visit Mainepolicy.org to learn more or follow the Maine Policy Institute on social media. 01:09:11.439 --> 01:09:15.520 Thanks for listening, and make sure to join us again next time.