Transcrição completa de How do Padres scouts stack up with other MLB teams? Free agent wish list

unheralded trade acquisitions. They have guys that were post-type prospects. I mean, the Brewers really acquire guys from every avenue. And they do a great job of maximizing the talent. Yeah, and in terms of scouts, right? I mean, again, I just want to circle back here. Everyone talks about the Brewers and the Rays as these analytically driven groups. And yes, analytics are a part of it. It's only a part of it. You know, as I wrote for BA and as I compiled, they also have two of the top 10 largest scouting departments in baseball. The Rays are right there in the top five, their fifth. The Brewers are tied for 10th. So, and again, it's not like these scouts are a bunch of like, you know, first or second year kids, fresh out of college, collecting data. Like these are veteran 20, 30 year, quote unquote, old crusty scouts who are really, really good at their jobs with great track records that are doing this, you know, old fashioned traditional on the boot scouting. And it goes to show again, that if you want to be successful in baseball, analytics and scouting are not an either, or you have to have both nine of the last 10 world series participants, uh, had larger than average scouting staffs in Major League Baseball. You've got to have both scouting and analytics to be successful in the game today. 00:06:11 Speaker 1: For those that are listening to the podcast, wherever it is that you get your audio podcasts, there is a chart here that just shows the sizes of the different scouting departments. And it is pro scouting. It is amateur scouting. And there's four different categories here. Kyle, what is your takeaway about where the Padres are? Because the Padres are right in the middle of the pack here. They're a little bit below the Brewers. They're a little bit ahead of the Astros. What is your takeaway? What do you glean from this information specifically about the San Diego Padres? 00:06:39 Speaker 2: Yeah, going into this, I actually thought the Padres would rank a little higher just because they are a very scouting driven organization. So they are above the league average, which is where you want to be. And again, there's a quantitative aspect here as well as a qualitative aspect here. Keep in mind the Padres have, for my money, in my opinion, one of the best scouting staffs in baseball. When you just look at the personnel, I mean, there are so many people on the staff that are considered the best of the best of the best. You go from Dave Post all the way down to guys like Mike Jewell, Don Viola, Ron Rizzi. I mean, guys with 20, 30 years of just excellence all around them. And Chris Kemp has a great track record as well. I think overall, if you're the Padres and you're looking at the Padres, you feel really good about where they are from a scouting standpoint. I did think the numbers would be a little bit higher, but when you take the quantity and the quality into account, When you have an above average size and the quality is, in my opinion, one of the top 10 in baseball, you're in a good place. 00:07:33 Speaker 1: I think I've seen a similar chart that does suggest that the Padres have one of the smaller analytics departments in Major League Baseball. So I don't have that available. I don't want to go too far down this road because I don't know that we have a second slide for the show here today. 00:07:46 Speaker 3: All right. 00:07:46 Speaker 1: Stick around, everybody. It's Friar Territory. You can subscribe on YouTube. You can subscribe wherever it is that you get your podcasts. That's Marty Caswell. I'm Darren Smith. Kyle Glazer hanging out with us today. And we are back after this. I want to give one of our sponsors here, SeatGeek, a huge shout out. As I've told the story many times here, that's how I got my Game 5 ticket for Nixon 5. And I happened to be in New York last week when they were raising the banner. And I will tell you, I went to SeatGeek. I opened up the app. I was like, hmm. Okay, I can see what these prices are, and I can make an educated decision as to whether or not I do want to go. But, you know, the budget was blown out on Game 5, but it was just nice to have that. And now that MLB is winding down, NBA, NHL, things are in full swing. Football on the weekend, still some MLS games, Marty. So if you're looking for tickets to an event, a concert, SeatGeek absolutely is for you. 70,000 events listed on SeatGeek, so you're going to find what you're looking for. 00:08:47 Speaker 3: You're right. Baseball is just about over. Congratulations, Milwaukee Brewers. But football right in the thick of things. Perhaps you want to watch the winless Chargers versus the three and four Rams. Or perhaps you want to watch Kevin O'Connell, the head coach of the undefeated Minnesota Vikings, take on the Lions. There's only one place to go. That is SeatGeek. They have you covered. NBA, NFL, Padres, concert, all of it. The number one ticketing app for a reason, D. 00:09:12 Speaker 2: Smith. 00:09:12 Speaker 3: Mm-hmm. 00:09:13 Speaker 1: You know, all those Brewers fans, how'd they get the tickets in Tampa? I mean, it's a total takeover. Of course, we have a code for you guys. Reminded me very much of my own personal experience. Territory10, that's the code. 10% off your next set of tickets at SeatGeek. Click the link. It's in the description. Download the app. Have that code automatically added to your account. We thank you very much, SeatGeek. All right, everybody. Welcome back to Friar Territory, part of the Fowl Territory Network. Darren and Marty and Kyle hanging with you today. So we spent a little bit of time talking about this, Kyle, and I would love your thoughts as we are now just innings away from the offseason, right, even though there's a lot of dread about this offseason for obvious reasons with the CBA, et cetera. What would Kyle Glazer's list of off season priorities be for the San Diego Padres? What's at the top of your list as you're thinking about this and waiting

for the final out to be recorded? Oh, hang on. 00:10:09 Speaker 3: You're muted. Sorry, Kyle. You're, you're muted. 00:10:13 Speaker 2: Sorry. Sorry. 00:10:13 Speaker 3: My bad. 00:10:14 Speaker 2: It's okay. It has to be starting pitching. I mean, look, we know exactly where this team stands. Darvish is coming off the restricted list. We don't know what he's going to be able to give them. Joe Musgrove is coming off of his injury. He looked at the playoffs. That was short stints. We don't know what he's going to be able to give them in terms of starting versus relieving. But after that, it's a whole bunch of question marks. I do think that Michael King likely will opt out just given the amount of money he stands to make. I think the Padres absolutely need to look at Nick Pavetta's medicals. And if they're clean, picking up that $ 14 million option does make sense. But look, they need to, you know, left field is certainly an area. The bench is certainly an area. I would like to see them, you know, bring back Austin Hayes and Luis Ranjifo. I think those two mid-season acquisitions were big, but most of the available payroll space you do want to see devoted to really beefing up this rotation and giving them, again, not just a rotation with one or two guys you feel good about, but three, four, five, because over the course of a season, you need those innings to even get to the postseason. And then once you're in the postseason, you need those guys to deliver for you. 00:11:19 Speaker 3: Okay, so you're starting with starting pitching. I mean, we're all consistent there. You have to have starting pitching. By the way, this is not the time to revisit Robert Gasser for Josh Hader for that deal. We're moving on from Denelson LeMet and Reese and Taylor Rodgers. Good for Robert Gasser, what he did in game three versus the Rays. What do you do at first base? What do you do at second base? How do the Padres upgrade those positions? Or do they? 00:11:46 Speaker 2: Well, the biggest question that needs to be answered is how much money will Jose Feliciano and Kwanzaa Jones be willing to spend in free agency? We knew over the last few years, the Padres had to be a little bit more conservative with the type of contracts they gave out. They had to get creative in terms of backloading some because they couldn't take on a lot of present dollars. We'll see what Jose Feliciano and Kwanzaa Jones elect to do. If they look at the situation and they say, you know what, screw the luxury tax. We don't care. We want to spend, let's go win a championship. Then the Padres can do a whole bunch of things. But I think even then, Marty, yes, look, you want to see more from Jake Cronenworth. I do think bringing Ty France back is a top priority for this team. I still think you need to put as much money as you can into this starting rotation. That means, if possible, bringing back Michael King. That means picking up Nick Pavetta's option. That means maybe taking on some guys in a trade that might have a decent salary attached to them. Or maybe it's a guy like Well, again, there's some guys like Shane McClanahan and Logan Gilbert who could be on the trade market. They're in their last year before free agency. I mean, the Padres need to go get starting pitching from multiple avenues here, all of which will require them to take on salary, whether in free agency or trades. It's not the strongest free agent market, but I still look at this ninth. I think the Padres, you want to go into this offseason and see them get at least, they need to get at least three starting pitchers if you're including King and Pavetta, and I would argue they need more. 00:13:20 Speaker 1: Walker Buehler, any interest bringing him back? 00:13:26 Speaker 2: On a one-year low dollar deal, potentially. Again, if he's your fifth starter, you feel okay, but you don't want him to be your number three starter, which for a lot of this year, he was as a de facto. So again, if I'm the Padres, I am exploring a lot of other starting pitchers first and then pivoting back to Walker Buehler as a backup if he's still. 00:13:49 Speaker 3: On the market. Right now, a lot of different MLB insiders, how they're different, like the top 40 free agents, the top 50 free agents. And one guy, by the way, I found it interesting. I'm going to go ahead and quote Jim Bowden of The Athletic most recently. I think he had Casey Mize on that list in the top 40. He did not have Ty France on that list. We know Casey Mize dealt through a lot, the ankle injury, the abductor, the groin injury. Is he someone that you'd kick the tires on? Or do you think, you know what, that ship has sailed. Maybe he's going to reunite with AJ Hinchback in Detroit. 00:14:21 Speaker 2: I think you definitely kick the tires on him. Again, the Casey Mize we saw in San Diego was not Casey Mize. He had a bad first start, two really good starts. Then he turned his ankle, slipping on the dugout steps against the twins. It was just not right the entire rest of the way. He has dealt with some injuries in the past, but look, he's a solid pitcher. That his best, you feel pretty good giving the ball to in game three of a playoff series and certainly game four. So if the price is right, yeah, I certainly kick the tires on him. I think for the Padres, again, I still go back to re-signing Michael King, picking up Nick Pavetta's club option as long as his medical is clean. I'm going to be really curious to see what Jose Feliciano and Kwanza Jones allow them to do payroll-wise if they can play in the Freddy Peralta market. Because if they can, that's a great addition, but he's not going to come cheap. The Trevor Rodgers market, is that something that they're going to be able to do? We just don't know the answers yet. If they can, yeah, absolutely. Absolutely. If they can't, though, I still look at Tyler Molle. He was really good down the stretch with the Braves. Jack Flaherty did not have a great run in Detroit, but he's a

good pitcher. You know what he's capable of. He's only 31. Yeah, I throw Casey Mize in there. Foster Griffin was a good lefty. He wasn't as good with Cleveland as he was with the Nats, but he's useful. There are a lot of good number 3, 4, 5 types in this free agent class. If the Padres decide that that's the way they want to go, they can. But we know the Padres like to go big, and I wouldn't be surprised if they swing a big trade. Again, the Rays are a favorite trading partner of theirs. And if Shane McClanahan's made available with one year left, I think the Padres could and should go after him. 00:15:54 Speaker 1: Okay. 00:15:54 Speaker 3: I'm so glad you said that because I was just going to, my next question was going to be, do the Padres make a bigger splash this off season via trade or free agency? And we know this is not a great market of free agents to begin with, right? One of the worst maybe in the past 10 years or so. So You have the Rays as perhaps, perhaps an ideal trade partner. 00:16:19 Speaker 2: You know, the Rays are interesting because we've seen them do this before. You go back to 2020, they reach the World Series, everything looks great, and then they trade Blake Snow. And, you know, they let Charlie Morton go. And Tyler Glass knows out the door not that much later. So just because the Rays are competitive doesn't mean they keep guys, especially as they're about to start getting expensive. The one interesting name for them is Drew Rasmussen, who's been– their ace and very quietly won the best pitchers in the American league. He's due to make $ 20 million next year. That's more than the race had ever paid for anyone in a single season. Are they going to be willing to pay him? And as much as you say, no, it's insane that they would trade him. It was also insane that they would trade Blake snow after 2020. 00:16:58 Speaker 3: They have new ownership, right? 00:17:01 Speaker 2: New ownership, new stadiums on the way. But again, given the state of the, you know, what the economics of the franchise are right now, We just don't know. And again, there's a lot of unknowns here. There's also club options to be picked up. Will the Marlins pick up Sandy Alcantara? Is he going to be on the trade market? So it's still taking shape. But I do think the overall point is the Padres should go after starting pitching as aggressively as they can, because I think they can fill in enough playable position players with what's on the market at fairly low dollars. Ty France is great, but we've seen teams and baseball in general undervalue first baseman in their 30s, I think the Potters are going to be able to bring him back for a very reasonable deal, and they should. 00:17:46 Speaker 1: Are you guys watching the World Series? I mean, are you not paying attention to the Milwaukee Brewers? Do you think the Brewers would go out there and spend nine figures on Michael King? Do you think the Brewers would go out there and do some of the things that you guys are talking about? I'm being devil's advocate here. But I just am thinking now through the lens of what the Brewers have done to be successful, and it sounds to me like you're both advocating for new ownership just to pour a bunch of money back into this roster. And I don't know that they will or won't do that in terms of making the big splash and everything that we've become accustomed to over the last few years, right? But just in terms of is there anything, is there really nothing to take away from this Brewers experience? Because they wouldn't do any of this stuff. As a matter of fact, they let all these free agents walk. They probably would have traded them by now. So, like, what would the Brewers do with this roster if they somehow magically ended up with it? 00:18:33 Speaker 3: Who's their ace? But you have to have starting pitching. I mean, they're lucky. I mean, not lucky. They're in a fortunate position. They have an ace. 00:18:42 Speaker 1: Correct. 00:18:43 Speaker 3: Miz, right? Randy Vazquez? 00:18:45 Speaker 1: I understand, but they're not paying that guy $ 200 million either. 00:18:50 Speaker 3: Right, right. 00:18:52 Speaker 1: So that's my whole point about this. This group, this whole structure here, listen, we've all loved it. We've all been kind of drunk off the amount of money that the Padres have spent. 00:19:01 Speaker 3: Mm-hmm. 00:19:02 Speaker 1: But if we're going to be brutally honest about it, it's led to one NLCS. So I'm just asking, is there nothing to be gleaned from the teams that we're watching here and the way that they approach their business? 00:19:12 Speaker 2: There absolutely is. But for the Padres to do what the Brewers have done will take them five years. Because what the Brewers have done has kept most of their top first round picks, second round picks, and a lot of the guys they acquired as young guys in trades. Bryce Terang, homegrown. Jackson Shurio, homegrown. Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick, all guys that were homegrown. Jacob Mizorowski, homegrown. Robert Gasser, acquired as a minor leaguer. Logan Henderson, homegrown. I mean, what the Brewers have done is, yes, they've gotten here, but some of these guys were drafted as far back as 2018, and now the payoff is coming 2024, 2025, 2026. So, yes, the Padres can do it. And you could argue that they should do a better job in terms of, hey, let's keep some of our top picks. Let's bring them up to the majors. But that takes time. And the Padres have shown they aren't really willing to be patient enough with some of them. 00:20:06 Speaker 3: So Okay, so you said five years. Five years. How old is Manny Machado going to be in five years? How old is Xander Bogart going to be in five years? 00:20:12 Speaker 1: I mean, what are we talking about here? The Brewers never would have given Manny that second contract. 00:20:15 Speaker 3: Like right now, it's easy. Okay, five years from now, great. Go ahead and do that plan, right? Who knows what baseball will

look like in five years. But like right now, you can't do that because you have who you have. You are stuck with a lot of these contracts and you kind of have to figure out Pieces that make sense around them and maybe take advantage of the window that you do have right now. I mean, if you're the Padres, and that's a lovely topic for another show, like how much time do you have left with Manny Machado, where he's an everyday contributor? Xander Bogarts, I mean, Tatis at 27 years old, or 28. How much time do you have with these guys? And you can point to what the future might look like with Ethan Salas. Also, another topic for another show, because we'll talk about trading witchcatcher later on. 00:20:56 Speaker 2: Salas. 00:20:57 Speaker 3: Jackson Merrill, Tatis, that's kind of your core, but you still have these guys that you're paying and you still need to figure out players around them. You can't just be like, all right, all right, guys, that's it. 00:21:07 Speaker 2: We're rebuilding. 00:21:08 Speaker 3: We'll see you in five years. 00:21:09 Speaker 1: You can't. 00:21:10 Speaker 2: And that's where you don't have to rebuild. You can still develop guys without being a fire sale team. I mean, I'll give you an example. The Brewers kept Christian Yelich through all this. Yelich, who they did sign to a large contract and he's on the decline. Again, it's not like, oh, we have Christian Yelich. We have to now trade all these guys. It's not like they looked at it and said, even when they had Corbin Burns, who they knew was going to be a free agent, and Brandon Woodruff, who was eventually going to be a free agent before he got hurt, and said, oh, we have this window. We have to trade all of our guys right now to capitalize now. They said, hey, we understand that if we have this renewable wave of talent we can keep bringing up, that extends the window. So I think if you're the Padres, it's about being a little more judicious in deciding when to trade guys and what those trade packages look like, and maybe making more of a concerted effort to keep some of your young talent that you do have. You look around the majors right now. There are a ton of Padres draftees and Padres international signees starting every day in the majors right now. And of course, talk about Wood, Abrams, but it's more than those guys. It's all across the majors. And I think if you're the Padres, it will make you better. You can do that without sacrificing today. I think if you keep some of those guys, not all of them, but some of them, you can still be good today and have a better outlook two, three years from now than running into this constant, oh, we're out of starting pitching again. We have to trade guys the deadline over and over and over. Because after a while, that starts to really pile up and the bill comes due. 00:22:42 Speaker 1: He's talking about Stephen Kolek. 00:22:43 Speaker 3: I know what he's talking about, Stephen Kolek. 00:22:46 Speaker 1: I know it. You know, I also think we don't even know what the personality is. And I know this is a recurring theme here, and Kyle just mentioned it again, that we don't know what the ownership's personality is. Do they really want to just follow right in the footsteps of Peter Seidler, who's like, hey, I never met a free agent that I wouldn't throw nine figures at, right? It was great. Or are they going to say, hey, listen, we think that there's a better way to do this, and we're going to be a little bit more judicious and a little bit more responsible. They've dropped a couple of hints, but these are just press conference hints. So we won't know until they actually do it. Kyle, I do have one other question just because you are dialed in around baseball. Do you get a sense, like when this series is over, you know, officially over, do you get a sense, you know, five days after the series is over that there's going to be a rush to sign people before the lockout? Or do you get a sense, you know, from the high-end free agents in particular, that it's going to be a longer process to wait and see how things play out? 00:23:42 Speaker 2: Everything I'm getting is we're going to see a rush to sign both the high-end guys, the middle guys, the high-end guys especially because they don't know what kind of contract they're even going to be allowed to sign once the CBA is figured out. So just as we saw in 2021 when that lockout was about to start, excuse me, 2022 when that lockout was about to start, we're going to see just the Rangers through $ 500 million at Corey Seager and Marcus Simeon. We're going to see something like that. We're going to see a lot of guys on the high end sign their big deals now. Because the uncertainty of what the CBA is going to look like, again, I think we're going to see a huge frenzy. And the Padres are going to have to be a part of that. If they wait too long, they're going to miss out on some of the guys they want to bring back or some of those impact talents that ultimately can help them get over the top. 00:24:28 Speaker 3: My final question for you, Kyle. Which Southern California franchise makes a bigger impact this offseason in free agency trades, makes a bigger splash? The Angels with their new owner. The Padres with their new owner. I'm not even talking about the Dodgers right now. Just those two teams. 00:24:46 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's going to be the Padres because you have to remember Kroenke Sports and Entertainment isn't taking over the Angels until March. And they don't even have, I mean, right now, John Moselak is their interim president of baseball ops, but he's going to step down. They don't have a GM. I mean, they still have to figure out who even is going to run the organization. So there's a lot of holding pattern type of stuff going on there. So yeah, no, the Potters definitely I expect to be much more active than the Angels. 00:25:13 Speaker 3: Okay, probably should definitely trade with the Angels right now. So they have no GM and no owner. Go get them, probably. 00:25:19 Speaker 1: Who do they have? 00:25:21 Speaker 2: I don't know. 00:25:21 Speaker 3: The shadow of Mike Trout. 00:25:23 Speaker 2: Reed Detmers would look great in a Potters uniform. But again, this is where lack of farm system depth. Do the Potters have enough to go get a guy like that? Probably not, but you never know. All it takes is one team to think more highly of one player than another. We'll see. There are going to be options out there, not just in free agency. You have to take trademark into account. We'll see how aggressive the Padres are and ultimately what their payroll looks like under new ownership. 00:25:51 Speaker 1: Real quick, just to follow up and put a bow on this, because free agency might start by the time people get our second episode this week. Not literally, but Do you see a world in which Michael King can sign a free agent contract or would sign a free agent contract before we find out Tarek Skubal's price tag? 00:26:13 Speaker 2: Yes, I can see it. We do see this happen sometimes where if a player knows there's a specific team or market that he loves and he gets the contract that he wants, he'll sign it. So... Yes, Tarek Scouble will set the market for starting pitchers. There's no question about it. But if Michael King does get a deal that he feels like will secure his family's financial future with a franchise he wants and the type of opportunities and role he wants, yeah, he'll sign it. We do see that happen. 00:26:45 Speaker 1: All right. 00:26:46 Speaker 3: Love it. 00:26:46 Speaker 1: Good stuff, everybody. Good to chat with everybody. For Marty Caswell, for Kyle Glazer, I am Darren Smith. Thank you very much for your support of Friar Territory. Again, you can subscribe on YouTube, wherever it is that you get your audio podcast. And you can also check out the merch at FoulTerritoryShop.com. That's FoulTerritoryShop.com. All sorts of stuff there. You can check out the latest gear. There's player-specific gear. There's show-specific gear. But the address, the URL, the website now is FoulTerritoryShop.com. Thank you, everybody, for your support for our territory. And we'll talk to you next time.