Transcrição completa de France riots explained: Is Europe reaching boiling point?

wave of drone attacks there. 00:02:08.639 --> 00:02:13.039 So this is fighting between the army and the rapid support forces continues. 00:02:13.199 --> 00:02:16.879 Yemen is still as busy as it was the last time we spoke. 00:02:17.039 --> 00:02:20.879 A deadly attack on security training centers reportedly killed more than 50 people there. 00:02:20.960 --> 00:02:24.080 So this is the renewed fighting involving Houthi forces. 00:02:24.240 --> 00:02:28.479 Quick side note, at what stage do we stop using the word renewed for that fighting? 00:02:28.639 --> 00:02:31.280 I think we should have stopped using it probably quite a while ago. 00:02:31.520 --> 00:02:43.599 That is now becoming a much wider, thankfully for the Saudis, I think, a wider conflict in that Egypt joined this weekend, not just in words, but is going to deploy forces there. 00:02:43.759 --> 00:02:48.639 Riyadh called off the forum that was expected to be taking place there. 00:02:48.719 --> 00:02:55.280 So again, it's just really reiterating that certainly Riyadh does not expect any sort of let up in this fighting. 00:02:55.520 --> 00:02:58.000 My sense is that this has gotten so bad, right? 00:02:58.080 --> 00:03:10.719 And the alternative, which was to negotiate out of it, is simply pushing the problem further down the road that Riyadh is going to try to do literally everything in its power to deal with the Houthis this time completely. 00:03:10.960 --> 00:03:12.400 What do you think they should be doing? 00:03:12.560 --> 00:03:13.199 Is there an answer? 00:03:13.360 --> 00:03:16.879 I mean, I think the Houthis respond to force and well applied. 00:03:17.039 --> 00:03:21.039 And they have intelligence now, of course, from the US and Israel. 00:03:21.120 --> 00:03:25.039 And the UAE is committed, as are other countries in the region. 00:03:25.280 --> 00:03:37.759 The Egyptian entrance into this was significant because, of course, a situation like that on the Red Sea is costing Egypt, I think it's estimated around 6 billion annually from lost Suez Canal revenues. 00:03:38.000 --> 00:03:40.400 So all of them are going to be affected by this. 00:03:40.560 --> 00:03:47.520 I think that in general they were holding off because they didn't want to engage with an Iranian proxy. 00:03:47.759 --> 00:03:49.680 But it has now gotten so bad. 00:03:49.840 --> 00:04:00.479 And of course, the reigning regional hegemon in Saudi Arabia is being so kind of militarily humiliated that there needs to be a collective effort to try to deal with this. 00:04:00.560 --> 00:04:07.599 And so what I think is going to happen is that, as I mentioned in the last podcast, my worry is that Yemen will be destroyed by Christmas. 00:04:07.759 --> 00:04:09.439 I mean, quite destroyed. 00:04:09.599 --> 00:04:20.399 And of course, the fact that the Houthis have pushed into new territory is going to place those people at risk when they wouldn't have been at risk if this had been done a few months ago. 00:04:20.639 --> 00:04:27.439 And the history of those dynamics is something that I think gets lost in the pace at which things develop there. 00:04:27.519 --> 00:04:38.160 So, you know, there might be a news break that something has shifted that might involve a how did we get hippies, but the developments happen so quickly and so often that quickly kind of falls out of consciousness. 00:04:38.240 --> 00:04:44.399 And so I think that it definitely falls into the category of a conflict that your average person knows slightly less about. 00:04:44.560 --> 00:04:52.000 So I think that's definitely one for us to unpick again, maybe from the start, get some of the ac letters on in the next few weeks. 00:04:52.319 --> 00:04:53.199 Yeah, I would agree. 00:04:53.279 --> 00:04:57.040 I think that it really has shifted in its tenor this time. 00:04:57.199 --> 00:05:04.720 You know, for quite a while now, they have had control of the majority of the population of Yemen, certainly Sana'a and the surrounding areas. 00:05:04.800 --> 00:05:05.600 They're from the north. 00:05:05.680 --> 00:05:08.879 They have had quite a tight control of that entity. 00:05:09.040 --> 00:05:16.879 And so they have been in negotiations on and off for quite a while again, getting some support from Iran, but making their own decisions. 00:05:17.040 --> 00:05:20.240 They govern through violence within Yemen itself. 00:05:20.399 --> 00:05:24.000 And so it was not a country that was moving in any particular direction. 00:05:24.079 --> 00:05:28.800 It was really seen as a kind of a violent orchestration of Uthi rule. 00:05:28.959 --> 00:05:46.079 This decision by the Saudis to stop messing about and actually take this threat seriously has come at a time where, of course, they're now starting to massively affect the Saudi economy, whether it's the oil economy, of course, the ability to transport energy in and out of the state, mostly out. 00:05:46.160 --> 00:05:50.000 And of course, that became much more important because of the Strait of Hornus. 00:05:50.160 --> 00:06:04.800 And really trying to cripple Saudi's reputation that it had spent so much time building as a Middle Eastern entry point for conferences, for Western businesses, for economic growth that was an alternative to energy, and they quickly destroyed that. 00:06:05.040 --> 00:06:08.720 We'll take time to grow it back, but first they need to get rid of this problem. 00:06:08.800 --> 00:06:13.279 It's like a threat lurking right beneath a lake, you know, it just pops up anytime it wants to. 00:06:13.519 --> 00:06:18.240 The cost of having it stay there is finally higher than the cost of just dealing with it now. 00:06:18.480 --> 00:06:19.360 Yeah, no, absolutely. 00:06:19.439 --> 00:06:20.879 And the events continue, right? 00:06:21.040 --> 00:06:29.519 So moving slightly further up then to Ethiopia, the updates are kind of far and few between and then thick and fast every now. 00:06:29.680 --> 00:06:31.360 So it's really kind of varied.

00:06:31.600 --> 00:06:32.879 What do we know? 00:06:33.040 --> 00:06:35.199 Where are we up to with the latest? 00:06:35.439 --> 00:06:38.319 We need to think about this as having three goals, right? 00:06:38.480 --> 00:06:41.680 The first goal, of course, is the elimination of the TPLF. 00:06:41.839 --> 00:06:42.959 That is continuing. 00:06:43.360 --> 00:06:45.920 So there's, you know, there's kind of an entrenched mountain fight. 00:06:46.000 --> 00:06:56.560 So if you you were keen on this conflict five, six years ago, Ron, so you will remember this state, where there was effectively kind of a drawn-out insurgency at several points around Tigray. 00:06:56.639 --> 00:07:03.279 But the TPLF retreated to the mountains when they lost key areas of Tigrae and fought from there. 00:07:03.439 --> 00:07:19.600 That's happening on a much, much smaller scale now, in the sense that the remaining Tigray defense forces, which are the kind of fighting forces of the TPLF, will have retreated to certain mountain areas and are in combat with the ENDF, the Ethiopian Federal Forces. 00:07:19.680 --> 00:07:21.920 That's very close to the Eritrean border. 00:07:22.160 --> 00:07:26.399 We have a map on the Ethiopia Alert page that will update people on that. 00:07:26.560 --> 00:07:31.199 But the elimination of the TPLF as a force within Ethiopian politics is underway. 00:07:31.439 --> 00:07:42.399 The dealing with Isaiah, of course, the leader in Eritrea is both a potential military problem, but most certainly a political, potentially diplomatic problem. 00:07:42.560 --> 00:07:58.560 That has stalled a little bit, in part because I think last week and the week before, what we saw is that Eritrea made moves to both go into Ethiopia, which could be classified as an invasion, which was a very dangerous move for them because they were going to be responded to in kind. 00:07:58.720 --> 00:08:05.360 And then the third goal, especially for the Ethiopian government, is of course sea access, which is a slightly longer term goal. 00:08:05.519 --> 00:08:12.000 But we've seen, I think it was around October 11th, 12th, some troop movement into that area. 00:08:12.079 --> 00:08:17.040 But of course, like that's domestic area for the ENDF, and so they can kind of move where they feel like. 00:08:17.120 --> 00:08:26.319 But it was along that border of the area in Eritrea, which is kind of a long finger on that region that really closes down Ethiopia's sea access. 00:08:26.480 --> 00:08:30.079 But I think at its widest point, it's only something like 40 miles. 00:08:30.240 --> 00:08:33.039 This is not kind of a massive geographic issue. 00:08:33.200 --> 00:08:34.559 It's an entirely political one. 00:08:34.799 --> 00:08:46.159 So, backing up, this weekend what we saw is an awful lot of international diplomacy here, with the US in particular coming out and making it extremely clear it is not allied with Eritrea. 00:08:46.399 --> 00:08:49.120 It is a much closer partner to Ethiopia.

00:08:49.279 --> 00:09:00.559 It understands the Ethiopian problem as separatists who have really tried to assault the Ethiopian state and it will not abide by it nor support any part of it. 00:09:00.720 --> 00:09:13.279 The second part that was important is that it really wanted to reiterate that it did not want yet another violent and quite difficult, complex situation emerging on that side of the Red Sea. 00:09:13.440 --> 00:09:18.000 Now, I think that Abby may read the first and ignore the second, but we will see. 00:09:18.240 --> 00:09:27.840 Yeah, and I think it was a few weeks ago before, maybe even longer, before this escalation, when we were talking about who is friends with who at the moment in the world. 00:09:27.919 --> 00:09:33.679 And I was saying, you know, is the Horn of Africa something that the US is likely to be paying attention to anytime soon? 00:09:33.840 --> 00:09:37.919 And there was a kind of yes, if, but maybe not because of how how busy that is. 00:09:38.080 --> 00:09:41.679 What do you think the shift has been for the US to come forward and say something? 00:09:41.919 --> 00:09:50.320 Well, I mean, it was Marco Rubio, who I think is both extremely reasonable and has previously had good relationships with Ethiopia. 00:09:50.399 --> 00:09:54.879 So it wasn't Trump who I think is believed to have closer relationships with LCC of Egypt. 00:09:55.039 --> 00:10:10.639 But I think that in general they're taking the situation with the Houthis and Saudi so seriously as they should, that they wanted to be clear that we're on your side here, we get the situation, but don't make a move while we're trying to deal with this other massive problem. 00:10:10.799 --> 00:10:18.159 It's interesting that they call the TPLF separatists because, of course, as we've discussed on this podcast several times, they are not separatists. 00:10:18.320 --> 00:10:25.679 Their attempt to go with the Alliance for Survival was an attempt to destabilize and to remove the Abi government. 00:10:25.759 --> 00:10:27.120 That's not a separatist move. 00:10:27.279 --> 00:10:39.120 And so perhaps that was called that, in that sense, in order to kind of simplify the issue here, which was that we don't believe that this is a legitimate threat to the Abi government with whom we are partners. 00:10:39.279 --> 00:10:41.679 We believe that this is just some group in the north. 00:10:41.840 --> 00:10:50.480 It's a very significant change from the attitude of US political elites to this situation, especially kind of pre-Praetoria. 00:10:50.960 --> 00:10:54.559 But like I said, I think Abi will have really appreciated that message. 00:10:54.799 --> 00:11:08.879 Yeah, and I think it's interesting you'll note about the simplification stuff, because I think with conflicts like Ethiopia, it is so complicated and there are so many moving parts that in order to tell anybody what's going on with it, you've got to have some kind of simplification somewhere. 00:11:09.039 --> 00:11:18.159 And then at that point, it generates lots of kind of irate reactions every now and again, rightly or wrongly about the accuracy, but you've got to start somewhere with these explanations, right? 00:11:18.240 --> 00:11:20.080 So presumably that's what they're doing in the state. 00:11:20.720 --> 00:11:26.559 There's literally every single component of this can be made extremely complex or extremely simple. 00:11:26.799 --> 00:11:28.879 Basically, as I mentioned, three problems. 00:11:29.039 --> 00:11:43.360 They've got a problem in the north with groups that don't want to be part of this federal structure, they've got a problem with a northern neighbor that is trying to make trouble, and they've got a problem with their own geography, both political and physical, in that they don't have sea access. 00:11:43.440 --> 00:11:57.519 And they believe the reason that they don't have sea access to an area that to every single person who would look at it looks like it makes no sense belonging to the entity it currently does, and makes a lot of sense to belong to the to the area it's connected to. 00:11:57.679 --> 00:12:01.919 That is a problem that they need to solve in order to be able to grow significantly. 00:12:02.080 --> 00:12:05.679 So that's their line, how they're trying to deal with all three problems. 00:12:05.840 --> 00:12:12.559 And the TPLF provided them a really good opening by launching new hostilities in September. 00:12:12.799 --> 00:12:18.000 So speaking of problems to solve, France is absolutely all over the news. 00:12:18.159 --> 00:12:22.960 And it's not like every time there's a protest in France, it gets a news story. 00:12:23.039 --> 00:12:24.799 Because there's quite often protests in France. 00:12:25.360 --> 00:12:29.679 And they are a nation who are experts at protesting. 00:12:29.840 --> 00:12:36.799 Some of the farmer stuff a few months ago, the, you know, where the tractors coming out into the roads, that was a spectacle. 00:12:37.039 --> 00:12:48.159 And this time round, I've even seen a homemade barbecue that travels in tram tracks and it's enormous, and they're kind of giving out food and stuff at the same time, which I think is iconic. 00:12:48.320 --> 00:12:51.200 But can you start us at the beginning here? 00:12:51.519 --> 00:13:00.720 Because the bit that maybe is getting lost in some of the more extreme images that are coming out, or the images of barbecues, is that this started with a group of kids, right? 00:13:00.960 --> 00:13:05.840 Yeah, I'll just put it in some context for you, which is that as you said, France is no stranger to protests. 00:13:05.919 --> 00:13:08.000 In fact, they have on average about 20 a day. 00:13:08.240 --> 00:13:15.360 Their current rate, which is an average, including this most recent period, is about 65 per day. 00:13:15.519 --> 00:13:25.759 So it's three times more than the average, but that's again an average, which is that it's been about 20 days above the mean cycle.

00:13:25.840 --> 00:13:34.879 And what I mean by that is this current protest movement, which has many of the hallmarks that it continue today, it's about 43 days and running. 00:13:34.960 --> 00:13:36.879 So as you mentioned, it started small. 00:13:36.960 --> 00:13:44.399 It started as a protest around the provision of proper school funding, and it has become extremely violent. 00:13:44.559 --> 00:13:51.919 There's about almost a quarter of all events that are happening within this larger umbrella of the movement are riots. 00:13:52.080 --> 00:13:58.080 And that's very serious because it's really only about 2% of these demonstrations tend to be riots. 00:13:58.240 --> 00:14:04.000 The only higher was when a young man named Nachil was killed in 2023. 00:14:04.159 --> 00:14:07.200 That had about 78% of a rioting. 00:14:07.279 --> 00:14:10.480 So about three of every four events were riots. 00:14:10.639 --> 00:14:12.159 But this is very significant, right? 00:14:12.399 --> 00:14:14.799 There is a tremendous number of arrests. 00:14:14.960 --> 00:14:18.320 It's across about 800 different locations in France. 00:14:18.480 --> 00:14:22.399 I did an analysis of all the previous quite large movements recently. 00:14:22.559 --> 00:14:33.600 I had to look up some really crazy things like lumpy skin disease cull, which was it's a farmer's issue, which was that like different cattle had to be culled that had been afflicted with this disease. 00:14:33.840 --> 00:14:59.600 But there has been, as I mentioned, the Nahil riots in 2023, farmers' costs, norms and imports 2024, Union Days and Anti-Racism 2025, the budget austerity issues of 2025, the again more farmers regarding this call plus the budget, 2025, feminist mobilization after the killing of Lihana, which was 2026, and these, of course, the school resources movement are super serious. 00:14:59.840 --> 00:15:04.320 We have well over 2,000 riots and protests recorded. 00:15:04.480 --> 00:15:07.440 There's about 881 distinct areas. 00:15:07.600 --> 00:15:24.639 One of the things I think that is particularly worrying about this, of course, is that as with any protest movement that takes on any size, it's attracting other types of movements that become involved, both because the security forces are distracted, but also because they take advantage of that momentum. 00:15:24.799 --> 00:15:28.240 Listen, France lives above its means, right? 00:15:28.399 --> 00:15:29.039 It always has. 00:15:29.120 --> 00:15:30.960 It has an enormous national debt. 00:15:31.120 --> 00:15:36.480 And it has been engaged in austerity, whether it's the budget or public goods. 00:15:36.639 --> 00:15:40.480 It's been engaged in austerity, and austerity is terrible. 00:15:40.639 --> 00:15:43.120 It really affects people on a day-to-day basis. 00:15:43.200 --> 00:15:48.559 In this case, the state of some of those French schools really did look absolutely atrocious. 00:15:48.720 --> 00:16:02.159 There has been some very shocking discussions about sexual violence to young children in French schools because of the inadequacy and the incompetence of school administrators to check the backgrounds of the people that they have in primary schools. 00:16:02.320 --> 00:16:04.399 Really shocking things, right, have come out. 00:16:04.559 --> 00:16:21.919 And in a larger sense, this has been a very, very difficult period for Macron, who of course came to power and succeeded amongst both right and left challengers by being reasonable, by being able to claim that France could live within its means and it could prosper under this type of government. 00:16:22.000 --> 00:16:24.159 And it's been a quite a failure to come to this point. 00:16:24.399 --> 00:16:34.879 Because am I right in thinking that when Macron first took over, there was an organization, I think the translation is, is it the yellow vests that were causing trouble at that point? 00:16:35.039 --> 00:16:37.840 And then aren't they sort of back in action now? 00:16:38.000 --> 00:16:44.879 And was that, as I I think what I was reading, that their involvement was the turning point between non-peaceful and violent? 00:16:45.919 --> 00:16:49.919 Well, in that assessment I did, my analysis didn't go that far back in particular. 00:16:50.000 --> 00:16:52.240 It went back to 2021. 00:16:52.639 --> 00:17:01.840 But there were, of course, like the yellow vests were around wages and, of course, cost of living, and then pension reform, the budget, all those kind of issues, right? 00:17:02.000 --> 00:17:08.319 There have been major, major events around these same protest movements, which is around austerity, you know? 00:17:08.480 --> 00:17:17.279 But France is kind of notorious in that its budget has not fallen significantly enough and its debt is unreal. 00:17:17.519 --> 00:17:18.640 Like unreal. 00:17:18.799 --> 00:17:26.799 And so France is just simply not making enough money to sustain the the way in which it distributes public services and runs the state. 00:17:26.960 --> 00:17:47.119 And just like in Britain, which we've discussed a million times, you know, like those are hard realities to square, but they do need to somehow get to a point where the French population has to live within the means of the French state, and the French state has to provide certainly adequate, if not quite good, public services in order to remain legitimate to the French population. 00:17:47.440 --> 00:17:51.839 Because as far as world leaders that you quite like go, there aren't many. 00:17:52.400 --> 00:17:53.519 There aren't many of them, are there? 00:17:53.680 --> 00:17:54.960 And and Macron qualifies. 00:17:55.200 --> 00:17:56.160 Yeah, I do like him. 00:17:56.240 --> 00:17:57.519 I find him very magnetic. 00:17:57.759 --> 00:18:02.000 But the criticism of him has been how centrist he is. 00:18:02.240 --> 00:18:06.160 I know, and I mean, listen, no one's gonna get points for being a moderate, right? 00:18:06.400 --> 00:18:12.400 The benefit of

being moderate is in the adoption of your policies without them being hijacked by the extremes. 00:18:12.480 --> 00:18:17.920 It's not that everybody's gonna suddenly agree that they're the best because this is a time of extremes, right? 00:18:18.079 --> 00:18:23.759 So the moderate don't get any sort of praise or support while they're trying to do these things. 00:18:23.839 --> 00:18:28.799 It will be later when somebody was like, oh, I'm glad we took that position, you know, at the time. 00:18:28.960 --> 00:18:36.000 I don't know what to say other than the big problems of France are no better solved today than they were eight years ago. 00:18:36.079 --> 00:18:40.319 And that's the really big issue, which is that it took a lot of political capital. 00:18:40.400 --> 00:18:43.039 And I think that he was a pretty steady pair of hands. 00:18:43.119 --> 00:19:00.799 I think he had really important ideas about how the EU should engage with its member states and how France managed, despite this pretty atrocious economic situation, managed to say an incredibly relevant, powerful country across the world. 00:19:01.119 --> 00:19:08.880 But these problems remain and they will cripple any attempt by any government to deal with the reality that's facing France. 00:19:09.119 --> 00:19:14.559 And so it's interesting you say the preference at the moment for extremes, like the world is getting more stretched. 00:19:14.640 --> 00:19:22.160 And I think there's so many examples, aren't there, of this kind of anti-centrist, and therefore we're gonna drift all the way to one side or the other. 00:19:23.119 --> 00:19:24.640 What's happening? 00:19:24.799 --> 00:19:31.599 There's videos and all sorts of reports coming from like Italy and and whatever about their various protest movements at the moment. 00:19:31.680 --> 00:19:33.039 Is that a similar cost of living thing? 00:19:33.200 --> 00:19:33.680 It is. 00:19:33.839 --> 00:19:45.759 I mean, I would actually say also that the Italian situation is far worse in the sense that this is decades into this situation, and there doesn't seem to be a huge amount of hope about how they're going to get out of it. 00:19:45.920 --> 00:19:51.839 Whereas I think the French are often held back by the level of bureaucracy and the depth of it. 00:19:52.079 --> 00:19:56.079 They have quite a lot of innovation that happens within the economy. 00:19:56.400 --> 00:19:59.119 It often has to be state supported, I think, in order to work. 00:19:59.200 --> 00:20:04.559 And they just have an enormous, an absolutely enormous amount of public goods costs. 00:20:04.720 --> 00:20:11.039 In the Italian context, which of course I wouldn't know that much about, but I'm sure Andrea would love to come on and talk about the Italian economy. 00:20:11.200 --> 00:20:14.000 This stagnation has gone on now for several decades. 00:20:14.160 --> 00:20:26.559 I don't actually think that the Italian state provides a huge amount to the Italian people, but I think

it is a structure that everybody has kind of warped themselves around because of its perseverance, I think, more than anything else. 00:20:26.799 --> 00:20:35.680 Yeah, I was reading in Le Monde this morning that in Italy they've called for a general strike on the 20th of November. 00:20:36.000 --> 00:20:45.119 But there's similar calls in Spain and Portugal for the 11th, because this is kind of Italy, Spain, Belgium, Portugal, as well as France, right? 00:20:45.200 --> 00:20:46.079 But not to the same scale. 00:20:46.319 --> 00:20:52.400 Yeah, I do think that everybody should understand that the austerity that people engaged in post-2008. 00:20:52.640 --> 00:20:55.119 So we're talking about almost 20 years ago, right? 00:20:55.279 --> 00:21:00.720 That austerity has worked out okay for some of the worst cases of 2008. 00:21:00.880 --> 00:21:02.480 Greece, Ireland, right? 00:21:02.640 --> 00:21:08.720 They have recovered to some degree from the absolute depths that they found themselves in at that point. 00:21:08.880 --> 00:21:18.559 People were talking about how there was going to be a reversion of democracy because of the mere enormity of the challenge that faced these countries and the economic hole they found themselves in. 00:21:18.720 --> 00:21:20.960 Both of those states, for example, all okay. 00:21:21.039 --> 00:21:21.759 They're okay now. 00:21:21.920 --> 00:21:27.440 If not far more prosperous than they would have been before, had they not changed some of their structures. 00:21:27.680 --> 00:21:45.839 But then you have these really key economic powerhouses of the, especially the EU in this case, Germany, France, the UK, and of course Spain and others, where they went through austerity, although not particularly strongly, I think, in those cases, although in Britain it was quite devastating. 00:21:46.000 --> 00:21:53.279 Then there was COVID, and now you effectively have states that cannot shoulder the burden that they need to shoulder. 00:21:53.440 --> 00:21:57.839 Whether in the UK case it is because of an enormous welfare state. 00:21:58.000 --> 00:22:08.240 But in the French case, it's also An enormous outlay in public expenditure and an insufficient amount of growth within that economy or the size of that economy for what it's sustaining. 00:22:08.319 --> 00:22:14.799 And in Germany, it's because they didn't innovate when they should have in order to take advantage of their own economic powerhouse. 00:22:14.880 --> 00:22:16.319 So there's different reasons for it. 00:22:16.480 --> 00:22:20.160 But in all cases, you see an irate population. 00:22:20.319 --> 00:22:30.160 Sometimes those populations are younger and can't find jobs in Italy, for example, or don't believe that what they are due is coming to them as in France. 00:22:30.480 --> 00:22:37.680 Or in the German case, you have, you know, slightly older voters looking for an alternative and finding it in the right and far right. 00:22:37.839 --> 00:22:39.519 You also have that

situation in France. 00:22:39.599 --> 00:22:44.160 There's some concerns that Marie Le Pen's party will be able to take advantage of these protests. 00:22:44.319 --> 00:22:45.279 I don't know, we'll wait and see. 00:22:45.359 --> 00:22:46.480 They don't have any answers either. 00:22:46.640 --> 00:22:51.200 You know, it's not like Marie Le Pen has a, you know, a perfect economic answer to what's happening. 00:22:51.279 --> 00:22:52.640 It's not migration that's causing this. 00:22:52.880 --> 00:22:59.839 Yeah, and the more irate and like hostile everyone is feeling about this stuff, the less likely anyone is to have one answer that will suit everybody. 00:23:00.000 --> 00:23:04.000 We've certainly seen so much mobilization this year in this way, haven't we? 00:23:04.079 --> 00:23:08.079 There was been with the Cockroach Jantas stuff and then all of the ice stuff that was happening in the States. 00:23:08.240 --> 00:23:15.839 And so I know we're um at AtLeb working towards a bit of a look at that, aren't we, from a global scale in a in a protest index, right? 00:23:16.000 --> 00:23:17.119 Yep, we certainly are. 00:23:17.279 --> 00:23:21.839 Uh that will be released in a few weeks now, I guess. 00:23:22.160 --> 00:23:24.000 I've got to start writing. 00:23:25.119 --> 00:23:31.279 I swore up, down and sideways to know how that I would and Tanya, that I would have it finished by the end of this week. 00:23:31.519 --> 00:23:33.839 And I swear to God, this is the first time I've thought about it. 00:23:34.000 --> 00:23:36.079 Had you not mentioned that now, you wouldn't have thought about it. 00:23:36.319 --> 00:23:40.319 Well, see, that the podcast yet again serving lots and lots of purposes. 00:23:40.480 --> 00:23:45.359 Um, so we always end up with a what fresh hell awaits question. 00:23:45.599 --> 00:23:50.480 So do you think that things are likely to continue in this direction for France and Europe? 00:23:50.799 --> 00:23:51.839 Oh, yeah. 00:23:52.079 --> 00:23:54.880 I mean, yeah, we're in for some dark days. 00:23:55.039 --> 00:23:57.920 Like I said, this isn't in the cockroach situation. 00:23:58.079 --> 00:24:07.680 There are things that the Indian government can change to make life for Indian young people more equitable, fairer, less pressured. 00:24:07.920 --> 00:24:13.519 The reasons that they're not are kind of entrenched political uh relationships or references. 00:24:13.759 --> 00:24:31.759 The French situation is a much bigger problem, which is that no one, as previously mentioned, including Le Pen, can fix this problem without changing the impression that France has about what the government gives to French people and their expectations around it. 00:24:31.920 --> 00:24:33.599 That's a very difficult problem to fix. 00:24:33.759 --> 00:24:34.559 And I love France. 00:24:34.640 --> 00:24:35.440 I think it's a great place. 00:24:35.519 --> 00:24:36.160 And Macron. 00:24:36.400 --> 00:24:36.880 You do, yeah. 00:24:36.960 --> 00:24:39.119

Maybe you should send him a letter of support or something at the moment. 00:24:39.440 --> 00:24:41.599 I hope he has he knows he has my support. 00:24:42.000 --> 00:24:47.039 But I also think that like there's ways to do austerity and there's ways not to do it. 00:24:47.359 --> 00:24:51.920 And, you know, having rats running around and we say is disgusting. 00:24:52.079 --> 00:24:54.559 Even in Britain, yeah, people wouldn't expect that. 00:24:54.720 --> 00:24:55.440 Even in Britain. 00:24:55.680 --> 00:25:00.400 Do you remember when people were just running around rob stealing things and looting in Birmingham? 00:25:01.200 --> 00:25:30.720 That's what I'm getting from this kind of energy because I think that's from the social space, those, I don't know what the right word, like the news fluencer, what we're hearing from that side of the world, is that it's such a shame actually that the student elements of this and are they demands or are they basic expectations for education has turned into what it now looks like when some of the kind of intervention and the the rioting and whatever has really, really escalated from a point that was peaceful and and reasonable, I would say. 00:25:30.960 --> 00:25:35.920 Yeah, you know what I would say about this too, which is that all right, I didn't grow up in a wealthy place, right? 00:25:36.160 --> 00:25:40.400 Ireland in the 1980s was the furthest thing from wealthy you can imagine. 00:25:40.720 --> 00:25:55.759 But we didn't have these problems, and it was partially because no one thought the state was actually going to provide anything other than the teacher's salaries and um, you know, a pretty good space to be in that sometimes was warm, sometimes wasn't, you know. 00:25:56.000 --> 00:26:08.960 But I think that there was a lot more community engagement in keeping things decent or clean or, you know, put together that we don't see anymore because everybody expects the state to provide it. 00:26:09.200 --> 00:26:16.559 Certainly an enormous problem in Britain where everybody kind of throws their hands up and says it's somebody else's job to do this, but I'm gonna complain about it. 00:26:16.799 --> 00:26:25.119 And it when you pay the level of tax that French people do and that British people do, you really can come to a point where you're like, no, I I really have paid for this. 00:26:25.279 --> 00:26:26.960 This is in competence to some degree. 00:26:27.200 --> 00:26:28.240 Yeah, no, I hear it. 00:26:28.400 --> 00:26:37.359 And everything that we've talked about with the UK, from getting a doctor's appointment to the potholes to bins and everything else, that frustration is always going to hit boiling point, isn't it? 00:26:37.440 --> 00:26:38.400 It's just where the fuse is. 00:26:38.720 --> 00:26:53.440 And it will be a very important part of, I think, any far-right campaign, which is the inability of the services which have been flooded with money, although they've also been flooded with needs that they're supposed to address. 00:26:53.680 --> 00:26:57.279 They've been supported, and yet you can't depend on them. 00:26:57.440 --> 00:27:02.480 And that's going to be seen as a failure of the kind of traditional two party system. 00:27:03.279 --> 00:27:12.160 You've been listening to Conflicts of Interest with Professor Cleaner Raleigh, brought to you by ACLED, the world's leading source of political violence and protest data. 00:27:12.400 --> 00:27:17.920 Subscribe so you never miss an episode, and follow us on socials for updates in the meantime.