Transcrição completa de WNBA Playoff Preview | 2023

that are gonna give either side either the Ace is a chance to go ahead and roll through this in short order in the best of three, or something that might lead towards the Sky being able to hang. 00:03:11 Speaker 2: I've loved these these games specifically. I mean, we've seen in Chicago go under a lot, but when it comes to the Aces, it feels like they do bring their a game. Their first matchup was a blowout until there were six minutes left and the Sky went on eighteen to two run to cover. We won't see that because I think the Sky probably do have a legitimate chance to cover in both of these games. They have nothing to lose. They got a new coach, Khalia Copper just signed a two year extension for the Max. It's a team that kind of likes playing with each other and has a lot of those like dog mentality players that do not care about who's in front of them. Cordy Williams, Marina Maybury, Elizabeth Williams down low the depth is where I'm kind of afraid. But Becky smart. She knows that she's put a lot of minutes on her starters all season and she doesn't want to keep doing that and wants to make quick work of the Chicago Sky. 00:04:07 Speaker 1: This is tough for this One's tough for me, honestly, because one of the things I try and key in on pretty routinely in the WNBA playoffs is how do you do defending three point volume and how do you do with spot up action? And the Sky have always projected really well in those categories. It's one of the reasons I've been on them historically when they've been in the playoffs is I'm like, there's a lot of upside here with their ability to hang. They were good in both those in those areas. This season, the Sky actually allowed the fewest spot up threes pers energy sports, on catch and shoot opportunities. They were really good in those categories as limiting those opportunities. Now, obviously, the Aces are the Aces, and they have quite a bit of firepower, but the Sky take a lot too. So for me, this kind of gets into the question of is there any scenario where the Sky might be able to make this more of a variant play right. We talk a lot about this in NBA playoffs as well, about can you find an opportunity here for there to be if the game has become a three point variance proposition, that's where things can get a little bit wonky. And the Aces, honestly, the reason I faded them for years prior to Becky getting there was that they wouldn't take enough threes. They were an easy fade because I was like, they're never gonna take enough threes and they're always gonna be subject to this kind of variance. But be Becky corrected that really really quickly. It was just painfully obvious how quickly they needed to get fixed. Do you do you find that there's any sort of opportunity here, even if we're just talking about there are exact outcome market markets out there for what this is going to look like in terms of you can get if you do think it's gonna be like the Sky can get a game off of them. You know, aces two to

one is plus five, like aces two to oh is minus six fifty. Again, this is understandably just absurd how good the aces are. But do you think there's any sort of value to be found based off of the idea that maybe there's a play or the variance is so high that the Sky or able to hang just enough to make that number have value. 00:06:02 Speaker 2: It's tough because I mean you're talking for forty minutes, right, I mean, the Sky had a sixteen point lead almost going in a half time. I think they were by twelve and a half thirteen and a half at home, and I think over forty minutes you're just getting it worn down. There's too many weapons and you need at least two of them to have really bad nights, And not to mention you have Alisha Clark who can basically guard anyone in the league. She even does well against bigs, So I don't I don't see it. I mean, like I wouldn't hate a moneyline playing game one, you know, and if you can get some good value on the Aces live. They didn't really come out too strong last year, and we were expecting them to throttle Phoenix, who basically had eight rostered players. I think Phoenix ended up covering that game one last year and then got throttled in the next. Just relied on Diamond to Shields and obviously we have a much better player in Khalia Copper, but it's a it's an uphill battle. But I still I think sixteen and a half is too high, just based on the way these matchups have gone. 00:07:09 Speaker 1: Yes, I've got this, I have this after manual correction, I still have this projected at eighteen, which just makes me nauseous. So I'm just like, how can this possibly this is a playoff game, Like this isn't like, this isn't a fever Ace and yet it's just that's that's how dominant they've been. So like, I want to take the sixteen and a half because it's that many points in a playoff environment. If the Sky are able to slow it down and play a variant game, right, maybe there's a scenario there where they're able to cover, But my projection says otherwise. The other problem is the Sky just haven't been able to be efficient enough on offense this year, especially in the half court. They've really struggled in that area. Like this team I think is pretty I liked their balance and what they're able to show there, but I don't necessarily think that there's a lot to be found there. See you kind of mentioned the total one seventy is the total for game one. Do you have any sort of of indication on how you feel like the pace of this game is going to go or whether or not I haven't projected as like I have most aces games and then absolute hilarious one eighty range. I was kind of curious as far as your numbers or what you think as far as the total play goes for game one. 00:08:13 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think as long as it stays at one seventy year below, you can feel safe going over With these two teams. I think Chicago does like to push and does try to get to the free throw line a lot, and nobody's better to get the free thow line than

the Las Vegas Aces except the Dream and the Wings, which we'll cover later. But these two teams have for some reason found a way to always get over whatever the number is, and that's what the Ace is scoring two points for the final six minutes of that first matchup. That's another thing like I've I've done pretty well living aces opponents the minute Becky pulls the plug on starters because that bench is so rough, and I don't think playoff time, you're an eight seed, why would you give up? You know you're gonna keep fighting. So even if you don't feel comfortable with sixteen and a half taking that up, and if there's a there's a definite play. I think the first half over. We've seen so many teams coming to Vegas and acesport on them. They're averaging I think fifty two and a half points at home in the first half, so that's been a pretty good play. 00:09:24 Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with you on the over. I did make a note of this that when I was mentioned that if they were to slow down to try and grind it out, it would be the exact opposite of what the sky's on. This year, they're the worst transition defense in the league both in total points allowed. And this is a bigger one is on Synergy. I was looking at this and like this matches the eye test from when you go back and you just watch style of play, watch the games. They're allowing the highest percentage of time and transition like they don't. They are not good at stopping the ball, and so teams are able to get downhill very quickly and get both transition and mid transition opportunities and aces should piece there. So with you, I think I'm gonna play the over on this and make that a best bet. The NBA season is just around the corner, so get it on the action with the King of Sportsbooks. Sign up with bet MGM using bonus code action and get up to one thousand dollars paid back in bonus bets. If your first bet doesn't win. Visit betmgm dot com for terms and conditions. Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Tennessee, Virginia, Washington, DC, West, Virginia, Wyoming, or Ontario only. Must be twenty one or older to wager nineteen or older in Ontario New Customer Offer. All promotions are subject to qualification and eligibility requirements. Rewards issued is non withdrawal free bets or site credit free bets expire seven days from michuants excludes Michigan disassociated persons. Please gamble responsibly. Gambling problem called one eight hundred next step in Arizona one eight hundred five two to four to seven zero zero in Colorado, DC, Kansas, Louisiana, Nevada, Wyoming, or Virginia one eight hundred two seven zero seven one one seven for confidential help in Michigan one eight hundred gambler in Indiana, Maryland, New Jersey, or West Virginia. One eight hundred bets off in Iowa. One eight hundred nine to eight one zero zero two three. In Puerto Rico, call eight seven seven eight hope

and Why, or text hope and Why. In New York, call or text the Tennessee Redline at eight hundred eight eight nine nine seven eight nine, or call one eight eight eight seven seven seven nine six nine six in Mississippi. In Ontario. If you have questions or concerns about your gambling or someone close to you, please contact Connex Ontario at one eight six six five three one twenty six hundred to speak to an advisor free of charge. Sports betting is void in Georgia, Hawaii and Utah and other states where prohibited. Promotional not available in Nevada and New York. All right, let's move to the New York Liberty taken on the Washington Mystics. A healthy Yer not not healthy due to some unfortunate late injuries again, but healthier Mystics. Team Liberty or minus six hundred. The Mystics are plus four twenty five. I would imagine this is gonna be the team that probably there's going to be in the most series price action on at the books, just because of the Mystics and their cachet and their history and the star power there. But look, the Liberty have been rock solid and Liberty are still Game one. There's still nine and a half point favorites here. What do you think of the keys of this matchup as the Liberty take on the mistakes. 00:12:39 Speaker 2: I think it's helpful for the Liberty that they just played and probably helpful that they just lost on a buzzer beater to the Mystics at home. I mean they've already opened up additional seating at home, so that's that's definitely nice. I mean, I remember last year playing the playing the Sky. I was there in Barclays and it was rocking as a seventh seed. So with the ex spectations now, with how great the crowds have been, it's going to be it's going to be an awesome environment. And Liberty after a loss, I think I want to say they're seven and two or six and two against the spread, seven and one in first half spreads. After a loss, they really come out and they take it personally. But this Mystic team is they got a lot of vets right and a lot of experience. Britney Sykes has been phenomenal, giving you everything you need from defense to scoring twenty points a game to hitting game winners over Brianna Stewart. So I do think with the way these games have gone, Liberty have only really blown them out once. They probably should have lost the game that they wanted overtime earlier in the year. So I do think nine and a half points is a lot, But we know the Liberty are capable of blowing them out in one of these games, and I think Game one might be it. I've gone back and forth with it. It's it's tough, but we've also seen all these games go over since the first matchup of the season, and I can't believe this number dropped from one to sixty four. I think it's now one sixty two and a half for Game one. I mean, Mystics defenses are you know, solid, and they're they play more towards the under the season, but the way these games go, they're always going down to the wire. It's hard to think that Alan del don, Natasha Cloud and Britney Sykes can't keep this within three possessions. 00:14:34 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's kind of where I get to Game one, and inevitably if it were to go to Game three, Game three as well, I've got projected actually seven point six. So I do show a little bit of value on the Mystics here, and I'm always going to have like a soft spot in my heart with Deledon and Cloud on there and what they've been able to accomplish. I kind of feel like I'm with you that aces feels like it's going to be even in a best case scenario, Sky doesn't like their version of hanging isn't really hanging, Like they're not never really in the game, versus like the Mystics could legitimately, Yeah, the Mystics could legitimately like challenge here, you can get plus three sixty for it to be Liberty two Mystics one. I don't hate that, Like, do you think that there's a chance that the Mystics can outright get it? Can they get a home game potentially? 00:15:23 Speaker 2: Is that? 00:15:24 Speaker 1: Is that possible? 00:15:25 Speaker 2: I mean they were a Corney vander Suit layup away from winning two in New York, so it is possible. I do think Sandy in the playoffs has done really well. Sabrina and her young playoff careers never won a playoff series. She's only been in two and one of them with a single ordinations, but she's covered them both, so she's played great. But Nie just played great the last few playoff game once Liberty came out strong and covered and one outright is big dogs last year Sandy's first year coaching the team, So I mean it's a it's a tough spot just because of how good the Mystics are. You don't want to play this team around one, but I still think the Liberty get it done in two. They don't want to play around. But you know, that number probably gets better after game one because I don't see the Liberty losing twice in a row. All right. Maybe I don't know. I don't know how it works with these game three game series. 00:16:21 Speaker 1: So I do think that there's probably value a little bit on taking I'm probably gonna play the Mystics in game one. I think I might go ahead and take the nine and a half. I would be surprised it's also go out to ten. Given the popularity of I think public money will probably come in the degree it will in the market on the WBA on the Liberty. Same thing. It will be a little bit more value on the Mystics. And you're already kind of seeing well, I will say this. You know at MGM it's minus one fifteen plus nine and a half, so we're sorry to see at least a little bit of a lean might hit nine, so I can get the nine and a half. Definitely take that there are nine and a half's in the market. Let's go to the Connecticut Sun taking on the Minnesota Links. Son her minus six fifty Links plus four point fifty to win this matchup? What do you think about this one? 00:17:05 Speaker 2: Like the Links have won games this season where I'm just mind blown. I understand being the Liberty when back to back, but like being in

Dallas on back to back games with how good Dallas is offensively and Links have thrown up from stinkerd They wouldn't be in the playoffs if they didn't beat LA three times. Right. They have a worse point differential than the Indiana Fever than the Sparks, who are not playoff teams, so they really shouldn't be here. They have one supremely talented player and if he's a Collier, they have you know, two rookies, so will be on the All Rookie team, Kayleb McBride, who has been good as of late, but I don't think I trust her in a five game series. And then on the other side, you got the AP Coach of the Year, uh Dewanna Bonner who seems ageless and you know, a potential MVP and Alyssa Thomas. So I still can't give myself a fully trust Connecticut to win two to oh. I think there might be some value there and letting this or think this could go to three just because of the variants with how Minnesota plays. I mean, you could have Rachel Bannam and bridgeral Carlton come in and hit five threes, so there's a little value there. The Sun have not been great at covering double digit spreads. If this gets up to ten, it's I mean, because we've seen that offense just get into some lolls, but we've also seen them in dominant I don't know. I mean, I did respect Stephanie White for resting Alyssa Thomas and to Wanta Bonner to start the second half and sitting them out the rest of the game and allowing me to bet the sky at the end of the season. It's a pro move by her, But I don't know. It's a tough, tough read. But I don't blame anyone if you're, you know, take the Sun to cover the spread because data says the Links are really that bad. 00:19:00 Speaker 1: Two to one. Son is plus three point thirty in the market, which I think is an interesting number. I don't think I'm gonna get there just based off of I feel like the Links half court offense is great, and this has kind of been the thing where the Sun. I feel like the Sun routinely get matched up against these teams in earlier rounds where they face an opponent that can score but can't defend, but their offense will also, like you said, go into that lull for long enough. 00:19:29 Speaker 2: They let these. 00:19:29 Speaker 1: Teams that they should handle hang around because they just find ways for their offense to underperform. I've got this eight and a half, so I don't like any part of the side that's too close for me on this one. Do you have a feeling on the spread you a Link forward an under kind of banking on the Sun having a little bit of a lull at some point in this game. 00:19:46 Speaker 2: You know the fact that the over has hit at home fourteen out of twenty times for the Sun does scare me a bit because the Links have been a pretty solid underteam, and it's weird. It's like, Okay, maybe you know the the Sun kind of going to a mode where they their office just kicks it in high here at home, but it's really not that they do tend to give up a lot more points at home than they haven't the past few years. I don't think DJN a Carrington's gonna play. That's a crucial piece. I mean, she's a player that can come off the bench and give you seventeen. But they are getting a lot of production out of Ty Harris, who thinks shooting forty seven percent of three this season, leading the league, not the minimum of one hundred attempts, but still leading the league. And it was hot down the stretch, so it's it's another tough one for me. I think their defense is a little better at home or just better in general compared to the Links, so I wouldn't mind messing with the team total here. It always gets dicey in the playoffs, right with free throws at the end of games, if the game is close, or even like pushing blowouts where just teams just don't care. I mean, one of these game ones is going to be a blowout for sure, could easily be the asiest, but it could be this one. But it's just close for me to make a move, and I think it's a good game to bet live. 00:21:04 Speaker 1: I've got this projected to one sixty four, so that's gonna make it. 00:21:07 Speaker 2: That's tough. 00:21:08 Speaker 1: I want to at the over man. I'm just I feel like I don't feel like I have a high level of trust in either of these teams offenses over the course of a full game. So this one I think I'm probably gonna stay away from and see what happens. As always, I think the Sun have an opportunity to really show is something. But if I had a nickel for every time I said that, finally we'll go to the Atlanta Dream taken on the Dallas Wings. In this one in the market, uh, you will find that the Wings are Miyas three hundred, Dream or plus two thirty five. You can get Wings two oh, Miyas one twenty five, Dream two oh at plus nine fifty, Wings two to one at plus three ten, and Dream two to one at plus three sixty. What are your thoughts on this matchup? Which I don't know, like it's a This one is is interesting in terms of whoever comes out of this. I wonder how they'll be perceived in the market going forward. What are your thoughts on this one? I don't think it's a question of who's coming out of it. 00:22:12 Speaker 2: I mean, anyone who follows me knows I'm very vocal, I'm very anti Dream and I and I do bet them when I need to write. It's just there are those certain situations where you cannot trust this team. They have only covered against teams under five hundred I think for the last like the second half of the season to two wins total against teams over for no, Minnesota didn't finish five hundred two wins once against the Liberty and once against the Sun oh and three against Dallas, oh and three on the spread against Dallas. Dallas is just a terrible matchup for them. Too many talented biggs, and I mean the Dream try hard, they have some effort, but the half court offense is pretty abysmal. They don't really run anything. You just hope they get in transition. So that's the only way they really stay in this game is the Wings missed a lot of shots. And you're also going against the number

one offensive rebounding team in the league. So, I mean, you're dealing with Tierra McCowan down there, she goes out. You got Colonnie Brown who's also six, you know eight. It's it is an awful matchup. I mean, the Wings are an awful matchup for everybody. So many big, so many shooters. It's it is tough. They do turn it over a lot, but I'm sticking. I mean, the line is still at six and a half for Game one. I'm taking that. I think it's too so easy the Dream just start there. 00:23:49 Speaker 1: Yet I don't blame you. I would say that I think the Dream kind of showed down the stretch that once again, like that's you're right, you can't trust that team. I am kindishally just because the Wings were last in three pointers on catch and shoot this season, and that always makes me nervous. I don't like trusting teams where if they need to, they can't get separation. But at the same time, the Dream or not an impressive squad whatsoever. I make look my numbers for some reason still like the Dream and I don't. I don't really know why I'm not trusting them to the point where my numbers make this a pick. And I was like that, that's not right. That's in Dallas. That's not right. Yes, in Dallas makes it a pick. Yeah, where I was like, okay, So I'll be spending the next twenty four hours trying to figure out what's wrong with my model because that should definitely not be the case. But I do want to ask you, though they are laying six and a half. Do you feel confident that the Wings can cover that at home? 00:24:47 Speaker 2: I do. I think I think game one is the one to really emphasize who you are. I mean, I think they've been waiting for this moment too. I mean, this coach is like passionate she I mean, she's new there. The team is enjoying each other. Rique had a double double for the first time in her career this year. She had two one to finish off the season. So I think they're hitting the shride at the right time and getting a lot of balance scoring. So she's coming off a thirty point performance earlier. For some reason, this game, with these two teams who foul the absolute most, who take the most free throws, it is mind blowing that they haven't all gone over. I mean, I think the first game one was the one to sixty one or something like that, but the next two event been in the one seventies. I think there was sixty seven free throws in the second game in Dallas and the game still didn't go over. Somehow, they just shot horribly. Could be one of those situations where there are nerves. It'll be Ryan Howard's first playoff game, No's Helman off the bench. I think Shyanne Parker hasn't been in the playoffs in a while so and she usha Write's first playoff game as a head coach, so she shouldn't be nervous. But I don't trust her at all. So I'm rocking with Satu Savoli. He should be a top five MVP pick Erique who has shown that she can play in a system. Hopefully, I feel good about the Wings. 00:26:17 Speaker 1: Wings are ten and seven straight up, nine and eight against the spread, is a home favorite this season. The Dreamer eight and nine both straight up and ats as a road dog this season, so a little bit more of an edge towards the Wings there. All right, let's talk about some futures here. So there is a really hilarious prop in the market playing in on the dominance of the Aces, which I cannot blame them, but it's just kind of been funny to see it play out. There is a there's they are and also, by the way, in the market, there are also matchups for the finals out there at Aces. Liberty is minus two hundred. There is a prop on the Aces versus the field. If we look at our partner at MGM and we look over at the futures market. The Aces are minus one fifty to win the WNBA title the Liberty or plus one forty five Sun or plus two thousand Dallas Wings or twenty five to one Mystics forty to one, Dream one hundred and twenty five to one, and we won't mention the Sky or the Lynks. So when you look at the market, is there a team that you think is worth taking a shot on from an underdog long shot perspective or do you need to stick with the big two here? 00:27:35 Speaker 2: I think at this point you kind of missed the boat on value right with the super teams, and you gotta pick the team that's riding high. God forbid the Liberty lose. I mean it would crush me like a you know, crush me emotionally, But I mean, yeah, I getting seven to fifty at the beginning of the year at the Liberty was great, and then I think they're up to three thirty before that first ACES win they had. So I have a little bit with the Wings at forty five to one, and if I wanted to grab more of the Wings, I think there's an exact on the Wings beating the Liberty at thirty eight to one, I think that's pretty good value. The Liberty beat them by one just like a few weeks ago, but Sabrina was just coming back from injury. But before that, in their first three games, I think the Wings had won eleven to twelve quarters. There's just one huge third quarter that the Liberty had to get them one of those wins. So it's a bad matchup for everybody. The Wings just have so much size, and you also got a factor in like aces. I think the writings on the wall candas Parker's not coming back. They don't trust any of their other bigs. Kia Stokes is Kia Stokes. You know what you're gonna get with her. So if anything happens, Scott forbid. I mean they need all four of those players, those four starters and Alisa Clark to win a championship. And even then it's not a guarantee, so something could easily happen, or any of those players gets in bout trouble early, something something goes wrong with the game script for them. I like Dallas Wing's variability, size and style play. We talked about you talked about variants earlier they're gonna chuck it and they're gonna run. So that would be my team to get past the Aces. And if you're playing odds, probably taking on the Liberty and they've had success against the Liberty. 00:29:32 Speaker 1: That's interesting. What makes you think the Mystics can't get can't get there? 00:29:36 Speaker 2: I think they can, But I still I still think there's too much talent in this starting five and what you're getting out of the bench from the Liberty. I still don't think we've seen them play, you know, absolutely perfect or hit their peak. Let's say Sandy was probably holding back a little bit too in that game as as she should. I mean, there's you knew the the Aces weren't gonna lose to the Mercury, you had no shot at the one seed. You knew that who this is who you're probably going to play. They still put up a fight even though they were down ten in the fourth this I mean we saw them go up by fifteen in DC, so they're capable of winning these games. You have a first time head coach, I mean, he coached some games when his dad was sick or whatnot last year. But I'll trust Sandy, who's got a ton of playoff experience, been to the finals multiple times, wand Championships, coach in the Olympics, a lot of experience over aeric Ti Bolt, who I've I have a grudge with. He got a late tech when he was up twelve to ruin it under. For me, I'll never forgive him. I'll probably tell him that on Barclay's a personally it's on Friday. But seriously, this team is too good to lose in the first round. I mean, Twitter would explode if this does happen, right with all the expectations, but I have to think that they're prepared for this. 00:31:00 Speaker 1: Have to. I agree. I agree. All right, let's grab it up for Wucketts. Make sure to check us out later this week. We'll get you updated on these series as they progress, as well as we've got more coverage of How to Bet the NBA Awards as the season goes on. Make sure check out our YouTube page. Go to the Action Network YouTube page just starts for the Action Network over on YouTube and catch a video version of this show. We appreciate you guys being with us. My thanks David Paine, our producer, as well as our crack team of video editors. We'll see you guys again next time, and until then, get Walcketts. 00:31:39 Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. 00:31:43 Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help Us available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler