Transcrição completa de Volatility Skew Shows Defensive Tilt in Markets

00:06:17 Speaker 2: I mean, I'm in the triple levers doll cash run, so who cares? But I look at a folks, I'm not going to mention the name of the company. But I got a bell Weather toothpased company that I just sort of use Paul. It's popped in like two weeks up twenty percent a boring toothpaste. 00:06:32 Speaker 5: Little rotation there, but because. 00:06:34 Speaker 2: Yeah, rotation, and also I think used the cash. 00:06:36 Speaker 4: Yep, Julian, we saw twenty twenty five US equity markets did very, very well, but many markets outside of the US did way better than the US. How do you think about the US versus rest of the world from me? 00:06:47 Speaker 3: So that actually goes back to Tom's last observation on the toothpaste company. Part of that was the fact that the US dollar has fallen as far as it has over the last year, and that Paul has driven a lot of this outperformance of the rest of the world. You know, in our mind, the dollar did make a significant multi year peak last year at about this time, similar to you had a multi year dollar down trend from two thousand and one to two thousand and seven. And the bottom line there, and we think the bottom line over the longer term here is that you saw rest of world outperformance over that long period because of the dollar weakness. Now, what we would say here is that it is not likely that you're going to have a dramatic rest of the world outperformance kick in until the AI trade peaks. And you know, we believe the AI trade has a lot further to run, not. 00:07:47 Speaker 5: Just valuation in the market. How you frame that conversation with your clients these days, Well, the last year has been a transition. 00:07:54 Speaker 3: Is that you know, most value oriented investors had to make the leap of faith, as did we into this idea that this is one of these times where valuations are higher than normal due to the potential for this productivity bump from AI and due to the fact that there's just an enormous amount of liquidity in the system right now, and so so you know, it's an put it this way, if we get to a point where people are no longer questioning valuations, that's when we're going to start worrying. We hope that time doesn't happen. 00:08:36 Speaker 4: What's screening well for you guys these days? Is it a sector? Is it a factor out there? What's screening well for you guys? 00:08:42 Speaker 3: These says Well, interestingly, what we like is this concept of low leverage. Okay, and normally you might think that that would be something reasonably defensive in anticipation of a downturn. But no, what it actually is is a manifestation of rporate America's ability to generate free cash flow and in fact lower leverage. Happens to be found in some of the marquee names across technology. 00:09:11 Speaker 2: For instance, how do you dovetail in Christian de Gua's work. I mean, you know, he's acclaimed as a Fed watcher and all that are you taking? Are you on an Emmanuel worsh watch? Well, a worsh watch. 00:09:27 Speaker 3: I think the concerns around the hawkishness are probably overdone. If you think about Donald Trump's propensity to nominate an overtly hawkish FED chair, it just doesn't make a ton of sense. Christian's view is that this year is stronger, not hotter, which actually will give the you know, the Fed chair an ability to cut rates again, a boost for the economy and markets. 00:09:57 Speaker 2: Bring it down to basics, like people that that don't read your fabulous earning summary your conviction to buy new shares here? I get it if somebody's on board this bullmarket, But do you have a conviction that you should acquire shares here? 00:10:16 Speaker 3: So this is how you think about bull market cycles. Okay, and it makes sense when you think about the last year in particular, lots and lots of macronoids, lots of things to disrupt the narrative, scare people. At the end of the day, earnings kept going. And the four things that we think are hallmarks of the end of a bullmarket a recession, a FED that's more likely to hike than cut, longer term yields moving. 00:10:46 Speaker 5: You know, dramatically higher. 00:10:48 Speaker 3: By that we mean closer to five percent, and then overt FOMO or you know, you know, incredible capital markets intensity. None of those have been present, and so for us, the recipe is the bull market has further to go, and if you're under invested, you probably want to get to where you feel like, you know, you're reasonably fully invested. 00:11:10 Speaker 4: We haven't really talked about the FED here. We're gonna get a new FED chairman. I guess we're getting rape cuts. How do you factor in just the FED into your equity kind of mosaic there. 00:11:20 Speaker 3: Well, again, you go back to last week and and that presser was fortunately happily non dramatic. 00:11:30 Speaker 5: Okay, there's all this, you. 00:11:32 Speaker 3: Know, back and forth in the background, and at the end of the day, the messages the economy is doing fine, thank you very much, and that we will end up being in a position where at some point in the future we will be able to reduce rates and you know, on a measured basis. Chilian Emmanuel, thank you so much. 00:11:52 Speaker 2: Can't say enough about the It's not every day. It's like every three days you put out you're earning song. 00:11:57 Speaker 5: No, no, every day. 00:11:59 Speaker 2: Every day your team is putting it out, not you. 00:12:03 Speaker 3: Stephen Fandozi, Mike Chu and Barack Hurwitz. 00:12:06 Speaker 2: Superstars there there. Jun Emmanuel, thank you so much. Evercore I, I really appreciate it. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 00:12:24 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Apple Karplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube's. 00:12:37 Speaker 2: The great thing about billions or industry is

there's always a wacko economist who studied social studies at Harvard and became actually hugely acclaimed in housing economics, and wandered over to see Adam Posen at the Peterson Institute. That must be Jed Coco with us right now. How in God's name did you end up at the Peterson Institute? How did that happen? 00:13:00 Speaker 6: But it is where some of the most thoughtful and natual economists are. It's a great place to be. It's a fantastic community and Adams wonderful. Was it like a one hand in the Washington Post or you know, well, I used to be the chief economist, And indeed, so, of course I have to tell you that, you know, it's one of those jobs that happened outside of those postings. 00:13:19 Speaker 2: But it's great to be there. A couple I got. I asked one housing questionnaire before we get to your important work with Peterson Institute. I'm the American labor disaster. You own granular housing research. You did as far as I'm concerned, you did it before anybody else. With all the data we now have in the Internet about housing, what's your summary of twelve months and five years forward in residential housing. 00:13:46 Speaker 6: So we are at a point where, of course rates are still high. There is strong construction on the multifamily side, but residential construction is where both tariffs and immigration. 00:13:58 Speaker 2: Both pose a risk. 00:14:00 Speaker 6: Those two big policy uncertainties are headwinds for residential construction. And the good news is that prices are not rising as fast as they were, so there might be some easing of affordability concerns. But you know, we went from a world back, you know, back when we talked in the days that I was at truly I lived in San Francisco, and everybody talked about housing affordability, but it was thought of as mostly a local issue. Then a few years ago, when I was at the Commerce Department traveling around the country talking to mayor's economic developments around the country, every place felt that housing affordability was one of their biggest labor market challenges. Rapid City, South Dakota, Syracuse, New York. I would go there ask what's holding back economic development, and the answer was we don't have enough housing. And I thought, really like, this is you know, I think of this as a San Francisco in New York issue, but it became a nationwide issue. Now as we're seeing more construction, particularly the multifamily side, those price increases are easing a teriffs and immigration both still our headwinds for construction. 00:15:01 Speaker 2: Jeff Coco with US he invented the Internet study of housing for US at truly years ago. Back then, Paul he was in San Francisco in Avocado six days a week. 00:15:11 Speaker 5: At Green's restaurant they did. 00:15:12 Speaker 2: Now he's at the capitol of grill and pounded sakestpos. 00:15:16 Speaker 5: The New York Strip jed talk to us about immigration. 00:15:19 Speaker 4: One of the concerns when President Trump came to office in

a much stricter immigration policy was, aside from any social issues, was the economic impact would be felt in a number of areas, including supply of labor, which would impact some really important industries like agricultural, like home building, like the service sector. 00:15:38 Speaker 5: I don't think we've seen that in the data, have we? 00:15:40 Speaker 6: So we have seen that. Just start looking by the monthly jobs numbers. Okay, that headline number that we all watch. It used to be that we expected a break even rate to get the lid market study of about one hundred and seventy thousand jobs a month. Now that's something under fifty thousand jobs of Okay, fifty today is a reasonably good number, given how much more slowly the workforce is growing. The main reason for that is the slow down in immigration. Immigrants, of course, are disproportionately working age. When we have a huge shift in immigration policy that slows down the rate of immigration, the economy grows more slowly. We're seeing that particularly in sectors that rely on immigrants more than others. Construction, home, healthcare, food, manufacturing. You know, these are all sectors that have not grown in terms of their jobs, are even shrunk in the past year under current immigration policy. 00:16:33 Speaker 4: Feels underreported to me because quite frankly, I've been looking. 00:16:36 Speaker 5: For that in the news slow and I see it. 00:16:38 Speaker 4: I don't see the you know, the beef factory, you know, slaughterhouse shutting down for Hormel or whomever. I don't see these big companies saying we can't build the houses because we don't have the workers. We can't pick the I haven't seen the stories where fruits and vegetables are going bad in California because nobody's there to pick them. 00:16:59 Speaker 5: I just feel like it's not happening. 00:17:01 Speaker 6: Yeah, So in the data, we see it as flat or slow growth rather than faster growth. So it is not a decline of ten or twenty percent in employment in these sectors. It's not a huge drop in production, but it means almost all the job growth has been in sectors that don't particularly rely on immigrants in the workforce. 00:17:23 Speaker 2: If we get to five percent unemployment, is it the same? I mean Adam Post and I would know that in August of sixty four, the Red Sox were in last place. Is five percent unemployment now like five percent unemployment in nineteen sixty four? I don't buy it. 00:17:39 Speaker 6: So the biggest difference today with unemployment compared to sixties, nineties, twenty tens is the relatively low unemployment rate is still hand in hand with very low hiring. It's a very low turn economy right now. The hiring rate is what we typically see when unemployment is close to eight percent. Of course, unemployment actually is it? 00:18:02 Speaker 2: I want to say that again. Right now, the hiring. 00:18:05 Speaker 6: Rate, the rate at which employers are bringing new people on, is at the lowest level since twenty twelve, except for a brief moment during the pandemic. That low level is typically what we see when unemployment is at eight percent. 00:18:19 Speaker 2: One hundred and four percent of our listeners agree with what you just said. Do you sense any urgency at the Peterson Institute for Washington with our moldly eight percent unemployment like economy. 00:18:32 Speaker 6: So I think we see this in the consumer sentiment. You know, we see this very clearly in the surveys that ask people how likely do you think it is you could find a. 00:18:41 Speaker 2: New job if you lost yours? 00:18:42 Speaker 6: How good an economy is this for finding a job? So I think this explains some of what we see in consumer sentiment. But that is not the headline number. Yeah, of course, the headline number is the unemployment rate. 00:18:55 Speaker 2: Okay, but Briga Warsh has the cut rates because we have an eight percent unemployment economy, so. 00:19:02 Speaker 6: It is it is not an eight percent of unemployment economy. The hiring rate makes it feel like an eight percent unemployment economy for people who are looking for work, and so we see. 00:19:12 Speaker 7: This for young people. 00:19:13 Speaker 6: Young people are much less likely to be working than they were a year ago, even though middle age and older adults, if anything, are more. 00:19:20 Speaker 2: Likely to be working a year ago. 00:19:22 Speaker 6: So the pain in this low hiring rate is concentrated. It's still a strong labor market if you already. 00:19:29 Speaker 2: Have a job. 00:19:30 Speaker 6: Real earnings are essentially at record levels, so it's a very strong labor market for people who have a stable job that are not worried about losing having to find one. But it's a very tough market if you need to get a new job. 00:19:46 Speaker 5: What role does AI play in the labor market? I e. 00:19:50 Speaker 4: We don't need as many new workers in the economy because AI is making the existing employees more efficient. 00:19:55 Speaker 5: Is that? Do we see that in the numbers? 00:19:57 Speaker 2: We don't see it yet. 00:19:58 Speaker 6: Okay, this low higher rate is not because of AI. The hiring rate has been falling even before the launch of the public launch of champ GPT. The low hiring rate really started after the pandemic and the pandemic recovery, when there was some over hiring at many firms. Of Course, the effective AI longer term is anyone's guests on the labor market. There will be disruption, there will be rough transition, and there are lessons from history from technological changes. 00:20:31 Speaker 2: Even if the. 00:20:32 Speaker 6: Ultimate effect of those past lessons don't look anything like AI, we do know about what transitions look like, what disruptions look like. Disruptions are especially bad if they're geographically concentrated. They're especially bad if people can't easily move to new jobs, if they don't have health insurance benefits that let them easily

move across church. 00:20:54 Speaker 2: Let we get one more in here. You got Chad Bone, you got Olivier Blanchard, you got the emeritus William Klein, one of my heroes. You get to work with these guys every day. The summation of Peterson Institute on. 00:21:06 Speaker 6: Tariffs, UH, the tariffs clearly pose risks. We see this in declining manufacturing employment. Some of the effects are still too soon to show up in the data. A lot of it is playing out in uncertainty, and so you know, the risks from tariffs are definitely not behind us. Some of this is not even what we've seen yet in terms of impact on prices and output. 00:21:34 Speaker 5: But what is likely brewing because of uncertainty? 00:21:38 Speaker 2: I get, I got eight more. We gotta go, We got a week before you got to you gotta come back. I mean, I just want to talk Zillo and truly, I mean I can't emphasize enough. Jed Coco invented the madness of our internet real estate world. I mean, you're at home sitting on the like six houses of the Juicy Yep. 00:22:00 Speaker 5: You know all the time, it's all Jed Cocos, and it makes you a much better consumer. You know what the comps are? 00:22:05 Speaker 2: Are we better consumers now in real estate. 00:22:07 Speaker 6: Joy Aricley, we are better data nerds. 00:22:10 Speaker 2: Hes Yes, I'll take you. 00:22:12 Speaker 6: Yeah. 00:22:12 Speaker 2: Good Jed Coco, thank you so much for the Peterson Institute. Brilliant. We'll get them back in here again. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 00:22:31 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Apple Karplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube. 00:22:43 Speaker 2: The book is The Doom Loop, Why the World Economic order is spiraling into disorder. This is shockingly gloomy for such a nice guy. Let me explain as our prosade to you. If you are Robby Rogen out of Chicago, Robert rub In, the former Secretary Treasury. He codified the word likelihood in terms of probability Summer's Up at Harvard and Janet Yellen from the University of Brooklyn. The answer is who do they listen to? They listened to zwar Prasad on the China Watch at the International Monetary Fund and Legendary at Cornell. This is a really important book. Why are you so gloomy. This is not like you. What is a doom loop? 00:23:27 Speaker 8: I did not start out being gloomy, Tom. In fact, the book I planned to write was a very different book. It was about how we might be moving from a unipolar world when, after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the US, became the domum power in aavy respect, to one where economic power is more evenly balanced. And as an economist, one thinks competition is good for balance, efficiency and stabidity. But as I thought about all the forces that I was going to argue would push us back to a more stable world, a more stable equilibrium, I began

to realize that each of these forces might actually generate more instability rather than steadily. So the book ended up being one about where economics, domestic politics, and geopolitics, which always go on parlate tracks, they intersect with each other, but in this case they're feeding off each other into a negative loop, a negative feedback loop, and bringing out the worst in each other. 00:24:15 Speaker 2: So your publishers didn't say make it gloomy so you could sell the movie rights. 00:24:20 Speaker 7: Tom. 00:24:20 Speaker 8: As I was writing this book, my heart was pulling in one direction, but my head was pulling in completely under their direction. And I think the reality is that, you know, we're in a difficult world right now, and the book ultimately is going to help us at least understand the forces that brought us here before we think about solutions. 00:24:38 Speaker 4: Professor, we I think most of our listeners, most of our viewers, grew up in a world of globalization. Is globalization unraveling right before our eyes right here. 00:24:47 Speaker 8: So globalization was once seen as a positive some game, you know, which should offset the zero some game of geopolitics. The US China relationship was a perfect example, you know, the two countries could not you know, come to terms on certain gy political issues, but the economic relationship was seen as one that could benefit both countries. But now even globalization is being seen as a negative or zero sum game where even there there are no common benefits to be had. And it's worth thinking about what happened here. Globalization did deliver aggregate benefits, but these were not well distributed within countries or between countries. So within countries, in both advanced and emerging market countries, it created this sense of a discantled community that essentially felt left out of opportunity, and that infected domestic politics, which in turn, is hurting geopolitics. 00:25:35 Speaker 2: I would mention Joseph Stiglets there are just absolutely definitive is book on discontent among globalization decades ago as our prosade where there's the book is a doom loop. We're going to continue here with professor pad of course help Paul. 00:25:49 Speaker 4: So where do we go from here in terms of an economy that is a global economy. Technology has really reduced two distances and it just made everything more tangible here, how do we go back to something less global? 00:26:07 Speaker 5: And should we go back to something less global? 00:26:10 Speaker 8: So what we are seeing is not a complete retreat from globalization, but it's becoming fragmented. So countries are sending more trade and financial flows to countries with which they are geopolitically aligned. So trade and finance, rather than being bridges across the geopolitical drifts, are in fact deepening those rifts. And the same is true of technology. That was what, in my cheerful version of the book was going to be what led us all

to a better place, and it is creating enormous progress. But at the same time, as I point out in my book, it's creating much more economic and financial power concentration within countries and between countries, which is where the dissension comes from. 00:26:46 Speaker 2: You know how I do this. So I picked up the book and I went to the index, and I looked for Carnie in Canada. Carneie of Canada stopped Davos talking about the middle countries in a new variable geometry. Discuss that geomme within the dual loop. 00:27:01 Speaker 8: So when I think about the superpower competition right now, you have these two on both sides, and everybody else is stuck in the middle. My European friends don't like it when I say this, but Europe is sort of a middle power because it's not grown up to clear, you know, a real power on its own. So everybody else is stuck in the middle of these two very unsavory alternatives. The US is receding from its leadership role in the world economy. China is not seen as a trustworthy and reliable ally. So take what India, the archetype of middle power does. On issues like cheap oil. It aligns with Russia and China, But on the other hand, it sees its fundamental values as aligned more closely with the West, so it teeters from one side to the other. So Mark Connie took a very pragmatic approach. He pointed out, as I in my book that Middle powers include rich and poor, small and large countries. Their interests are not perfectly aligned. But he argued that maybe they should align on specific issues, which makes sense. The problem is it doesn't create deep trust that is necessary to underpin strong alliances. So the middle powers themselves again a chapter of my book, rather than being sources of stability, are becoming sources of instability themselves. 00:28:09 Speaker 2: Trilogue back. I mean President Trump loves to go back to McKinley in the Gilded Age. We'll get the tariffs here in a moment with Azar Persad. But to finish up on the doom loop here, do you have an analog of as Paul mentioned earlier, almost a nostalgia for a different time and place, or are we going to a new new that we've never seen before. 00:28:29 Speaker 8: The fundamental problem right now is that if you think about the competition between the US and Japan in the nineteen nineties, the US and the Euro Area in the two thousands, it was about economic competition. But now the competition between the two powers is completely different. It's about the visions of the world about how to organize an economic, political, legal system. So I don't think there is going to be an easy way at all for these two visions to be merged. So I think we are stuck with the doom loop for some time to come. 00:28:56 Speaker 5: What is the role of the US in this new world order? 00:28:59 Speaker 4: I mean, is this just a Trump issue and if we get somebody new in three years, the US will try to reassert its leadership position. 00:29:09 Speaker 5: How do you see the US moving forward? 00:29:12 Speaker 8: Well, Paul, I wish that was the case. But I should point out that I finished the first draft of my book in October of twenty twenty four. I put it down and thought, my god, this is too dark. Let's wait for the elections and maybe things will settle down. But everything that has happened since I finished my first draft has only validated or supercharged the thesis of the book, which is unfortunate for the world. But I think the issue is the US is now receding from its leadership role, but it's causing some other countries to stiffen their spines. You know, Europe is coming together at one level. The question is whether there is a political will not just to deal with territorial integrity attacks, but to do what is necessary to improve productivity, to come together, to reshape institutions within these countries, and for these countries to basically get their backs together. 00:29:56 Speaker 2: What do you perceive as a presad to pause? One question here about after Trump? I mean, if he's established some form of neo mercantilist zero sum structure, where are we two years or three years after Trump. 00:30:12 Speaker 7: It's going to be difficult to reverse. 00:30:14 Speaker 8: But as a point out in the book, you know, there is a ray of open if we as citizens are willing to become much more engaged, not just the citizens of our countries, but of our communities in the world, if we have more inspiring leaders, and if we can repair our institutions, I think there is a way forward. 00:30:29 Speaker 7: But it's going to take a lot of work. 00:30:31 Speaker 2: The book is a doom look, but I've got to move on to terrorists. I got as a proside in the studio, and he owns the high ground. I'm in the camp, as were the tariffs. We've lost sight of, and yet they drag on. There's almost an inertial force to the effect of tariffs on our listeners and viewers is that true. 00:30:49 Speaker 7: It's certainly going to have an effect. 00:30:50 Speaker 8: I mean, it's hard to imagine that tariffs are not going to affect both you know, consumer welfare and also prices. Certainly, there have been other forces, such as phenomenal productivity growth in the US that help tann down inflation. But you know, the notion of lean means supply chains that are delivering better goods, better choices for consumers, that is sort of gone. And I think the bigger issue, which is going to last for a while, is the fact that we now have this fragmentation of global trade, which again is bad from an economic perspective for businesses. Businesses are retreating and worrying more about resilience rather than efficiency. This is not good for the world economy. And most importantly, as I argued, trade is not helping to bridge countries anymore. It is creating even deeper rifts. And that I think is the fundamental known. 00:31:38 Speaker 2: As work for like a million years, and this is just shocking to hear the doom loop from US work. 00:31:44 Speaker 4: Exactly

does this fracturing of global trade is that an inflationary force? I mean, will prices go up for us? Because haven't we gotten used to over the last fifty years, seven years. This is just getting the cheapest widget. The widget I have to buy. It's a lower cost because it's built somewhere where their costs are lower. 00:32:06 Speaker 8: So businesses always face a lot of risks, but now they face, you know, supercharge risks in terms of geopolitical risk, risks related to climate change and how they're responding. They're responding by pulling production back on shore. They're trying to diversify, but that creates its own risk because you know, friends today might become rivals tomorrow, as we've seen from presidents from stariff policies. So that means that you're going to lose a lot of efficiency in the name of resilience. And certainly resilience is good for businesses, but it is going to mean higher costs for businesses and that's going to get passed on to consumers. So it means less choice, higher costs, and more importantly, all of this behavior by businesses, it once again means that they no longer are stabilizing force. The geopolitical drifts are going to create even more instability and strive almost go to. 00:32:53 Speaker 2: Your claim on currency on China as well. The stealth thing here, folks, We've barely covered It is very quietly on the rimmenbe is strengthening through a through seven and stronger, stronger. I mean, do you perceive a Pacific rim strengthening here and a weaker US dollar what President Trump ultimately wants. 00:33:13 Speaker 8: It's worth thinking about exactly what the conjunction is here. The US is driving away country straight through tariffs. China at the moment has a very unbalanced economy, is growing largely through experts. It's got it registered at one point to trillion dollar trade surplus last year, and the rest of the world is terrified about going too close into China's embrace because it would mean being swarmed by Chinese exports. Given where China's trade surplus is, certainly the currency should be appreciating a lot more than it is right now. 00:33:41 Speaker 2: So between Carnia and Canada and whatever is after President Trump, Republican or Democrat. To Paul's question, the bottom line is is after Trump, if China's troubled, we just reaffirm what Paul was talking about globalization. 00:33:57 Speaker 8: We could, and in fact, the US potentially as the ability to re engineer its place on the world stage. But I think some notion of trust is being lost. You know, this is not the first drump term, this is the second drum term. And as I speak to you know, policymakers around the world their US. If the US can electrum not just once, but twice, how can we ever go back and trust the US. You know, the US's closest allies, NATO, Canada and so on, are feeling the heat from Trump. So no country feels that it's going to escape what might be internal political dynamics within the US that turn it away. So there is a place for the US. It's going to take a lot of work to reclaim it. 00:34:34 Speaker 4: So just the European Union, can we expect the European Union to finally get its act together and maybe get its position on the world stage commensurate with its population, commensurately with its GDP. 00:34:46 Speaker 8: Moments of crisis do sometimes Pauls tend to bring out, you know, the best in countries, and certainly the European Union. The Europe overall came together when its territorial integrity was threatened in the context of Ukraine, in the context of Greenland, and a big question for Europe is whether it can get away from its internal political divisions to do what is needed to become a true economic power. This will require, you know, deregulating in order to increase productivity growth within the zone. You know, true economic union that goes beyond this monetary to banking union, to payments union, and a more significant political union as well. 00:35:22 Speaker 7: I don't see that happening. 00:35:23 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's going to say we've got to run here. But that's a hope of prayer. 00:35:26 Speaker 7: That's exactly right. 00:35:27 Speaker 2: I mean, if le Guard was sitting here, she'd say that's all brilliant as were, But there's no indication you're going to get their act together. 00:35:34 Speaker 8: Europe could be a great power, it's going to be a big challenge for it to get there. 00:35:38 Speaker 2: This book, Paul, Yeah, he's like, what's the response of people in the racket when they see the doom loop? 00:35:45 Speaker 7: The response is this is a book for the moment. 00:35:47 Speaker 8: I mean, it tells us exactly why we are ware we are because there is a lot of turmoil around us. And when I started working on this book, it was my objective really to understand what are the forces that God is here, because we need to get there first before we can think about. 00:36:00 Speaker 2: I'll throw it out on LinkedIn and Twitter. Folks at doom Loop Why the World Economic order is spiraling into disorder? A shocking book form Persad of Cornell as our prosad with this book, and I just can't imagine Mark Kearney reading it. Love to see if that happens. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 00:36:32 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Apple Karplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube lessus. 00:36:45 Speaker 2: Christopher's in here to get us started. In the newspapers, is it hard? I'm seeing so many Like I'm like, I wish Alexis would do this story. Is it like too many stories to pick? 00:36:55 Speaker 5: You know? 00:36:56 Speaker 9: So it's feast or famine? Really when you're doing the newspapers. Today wasn't bad and I got a good one to start us off. So the big game just a few days away, right, Patriots, Seahawks, the Super Bowl scams, they're all around

us. If you're looking for last minute tickets, first of all, you better have deep pockets. But you've got the fake emails, the fake texts, the social media adds, they're everywhere and more and more. The NFL is wanting you to come in with a digital ticket, not a paper ticket, because now they can track the digital ticket, which makes sense. So you want to be wary of third party sellers that appear to have a. 00:37:29 Speaker 2: Lot of ticket Thank you for doing this. 00:37:31 Speaker 7: Yeah, you know, we try to serve the people. 00:37:33 Speaker 2: No, but this is like a huge deal. 00:37:35 Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean the people who look, it's sad because you think you're buying a legit ticket. You get to the gate and they tell you, guess what. 00:37:42 Speaker 2: Paper? You just got to go digital from a reputable source. 00:37:45 Speaker 9: Exactly. Yeah, so check the source, make sure they are reputable, check the ratings, check the reviews before buying. And you know what folks buy with your credit card. I think we kind of all know this. Don't buy no wire transfer, transfer is no direct, that's not deposit. 00:37:59 Speaker 6: No. 00:38:00 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the names that we know, Paul, like Paul's got a real life Alexis and I don't. But like Ticketmaster, stub Hub, those kinds of seat geek, they're legitimate, right. 00:38:11 Speaker 4: And I learned it the hard way, I picked one that came at the top of my search, the Eagles tickets. Yeah, day of flying out the Vegas found out that those Eagle tickets were bogus and they were not cheap. 00:38:21 Speaker 2: Yesterday, folks, I can't tell you the scams. What a shock in offspring needed an airplane ticket. I'm shocked. Okay, first one in February. I go on, I do a search Google, and the people I use there was a fake account of them up top geez. And when I went to it, I clicked on it because the same name, and I could tell it was a scam. 00:38:44 Speaker 7: Good for you. 00:38:45 Speaker 9: Yeah, Well, they're getting smarter and smarter. 00:38:46 Speaker 2: As Cary tell your kids, I'm telling my kids all that bill got takes. 00:38:50 Speaker 9: Did you get your money back? 00:38:51 Speaker 5: No? No, really, sorry about that? 00:38:54 Speaker 2: All right? 00:38:54 Speaker 9: Well, as we following that, may have another cup of coffee? 00:38:57 Speaker 8: All right? 00:38:58 Speaker 9: This one from Business Insider. Tailors in New York City have noticed a growing trend clients are getting their clothes altered thanks to the weight loss drug o Zevich. So they're saying that usually people would come in and say, listen, take out the pants a couple of inches or two. Now they're coming in with their entire wardrobe, saying I lost twenty and thirty pounds. You need to bring my clothes out. One tailor even said he had to bring more people on because he has just too much work for him. Right, this is a good problem to have, he says. Instead of altering clothing, some are just going out. This is what I would do, yes, just going out and buying homeless. And when they do, what are they looking for? Slim fit, shorter jackets and this I can get behind less shoulder pads. I'm talking the nineties jackets when I was doing this, coming down like I was a football player, all right, So glad to see that the tailors are in business. And lastly, okay, this from the New York Post a sneaker collab between Nike and of all places, Costco. It is sending the sneaker world into a tizzy. So the sneaker collab it's called this is a mouthful Nike s B dunk Low x Kirkland. They're exclusive to Costco. Released in New York, Oregon, California, Washington. So they were going for one hundred and thirty five dollars in just three days. The resale market skyrocketed two hundred percent. In some places, these sneakers are going for one thousand bucks on places like eBay and stock x. 00:40:22 Speaker 5: So it's a separate style for Costco. Yes, okay, exactly. 00:40:26 Speaker 2: I saw Lisa Mateo wearing those. I think so. 00:40:29 Speaker 9: I think hopefully she didn't spend a thousand bucks on them, but so you know that. Also, the the insol it features is kind of cute. It features the Costco Affordable hot dogs, those famous hot dogs with the echo for a buck fifty. So there's a picture of those on it, and I. 00:40:45 Speaker 5: See you cam look at it now. 00:40:46 Speaker 4: Very interesting, all right, Yes, I mean it's not like a crazy time, but people are people love it. 00:40:52 Speaker 5: I guess I don't know. 00:40:54 Speaker 2: Thank you so much. The newspapers today just brilliant. Lexus, Christopherus. 00:40:57 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podst available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal