Transcrição completa de Read_949 - The Singularity Stack

a totally pointless thing and there's no reason to 30 00:02:38,660 --> 00:02:46,680 publish audio reads in video, but it's fun. I think, I don't know, I think I can play around 31 00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:51,720 with it more to actually be able to see the thing on screen while I'm reading through it. I got some 32 00:02:51,720 --> 00:02:58,800 fun little AI tricks and stuff that I'm sorting out the processes for right now that, I don't know, 33 00:02:58,800 --> 00:03:03,220 this could be this could be i think it's gonna be fun so i'm really curious what you guys think 34 00:03:03,220 --> 00:03:10,340 if you sit down and actually watch a video read so with that shout out to bitbox they are our 35 00:03:10,340 --> 00:03:15,600 sponsor and they've been a fantastic wallet for a really long time i've used them for i don't know 36 00:03:15,600 --> 00:03:22,460 how long and you know uh sweating with the great hacking and going on ledger getting hit and cold 37 00:03:22,460 --> 00:03:28,300 card getting hit and all this stuff i've been very very happy with the team and the findings that 38 00:03:28,300 --> 00:03:34,660 they've had and how they've reported them and how they've fixed them. It's just been, the BitBox has 39 00:03:34,660 --> 00:03:40,140 been very trustworthy throughout all of this. And so that's made me feel really good, especially 40 00:03:40,140 --> 00:03:44,220 since I recommend it to people and I've used it for a really, really long time. And now it works 41 00:03:44,220 --> 00:03:50,460 natively right into the iPhone. So check it out. You got a 5% discount and, you know, stay safe out 42 00:03:50,460 --> 00:03:55,980 there. Buy directly from the manufacturer, please. And if you can use multi-sick, BitBox is now 43 00:03:55,980 --> 00:04:02,180 It plugs right in a nunchuck and works very easily with Multisig now, 44 00:04:02,440 --> 00:04:04,640 and I can't recommend it enough. 45 00:04:04,780 --> 00:04:07,320 It's saved my ass multiple times this year. 46 00:04:08,160 --> 00:04:11,040 So with that, it's time to get into today's read, 47 00:04:11,040 --> 00:04:13,520 and it's titled, 48 00:04:14,180 --> 00:04:19,320 The Singularity Stack from EarlyWriters.com 49 00:04:19,320 --> 00:04:31,960 The stack traces the path from raw energy to useful output, and it measures where value is created and where it leaks at each layer. 50 00:04:33,140 --> 00:04:36,260 Part 1. The Premise 51 00:04:36,260 --> 00:04:41,080 Thinking has become a manufactured good. 52 00:04:41,080 --> 00:04:51,580 In 1830, an hour of decent reading light cost the average worker about three hours of labor. 53 00:04:52,100 --> 00:04:56,780 So in 1830, three hours of labor got you an hour of light. 54 00:04:57,180 --> 00:05:03,760 In 1900, that same hour of light only cost 13 minutes of labor. 55 00:05:03,760 --> 00:05:18,917 And today an hour of light will cost you 0 seconds of labor which is too cheap to even notice For centuries illumination was a 56 00:05:18,917 --> 00:05:27,197 craft good, rendered from tallow by hand and consumed within hours of its making. Electrification 57 00:05:27,197 --> 00:05:33,377 made it a utility, generated in bulk and metered by the kilowatt hour, and the industries that 58 00:05:33,377 --> 00:05:40,177 were unthinkable in the candle era arrived as ordinary byproducts. The power grid accidentally 59 00:05:40,177 --> 00:05:45,897 led to the night shift, the modern hospital, and massive improvements in transportation and 60 00:05:45,897 --> 00:05:55,317 coordination 24-7. Intelligence is undergoing a similar transition. For all of prior history, 61 00:05:55,497 --> 00:06:02,957 a unit of useful thinking cost a unit of human life, with the limiting factor as a brain 62 00:06:02,957 --> 00:06:06,817 that runs on a metabolic budget of roughly 20 watts. 63 00:06:07,557 --> 00:06:10,377 Artificial intelligence completes the sequence 64 00:06:10,377 --> 00:06:14,657 because the thinking itself has become a manufactured good, 65 00:06:15,057 --> 00:06:19,477 produced in bulk and priced increasingly in energy. 66 00:06:20,037 --> 00:06:24,657 And unlike light, intelligence improves the process that produces it, 67 00:06:24,657 --> 00:06:29,157 so every fall in its price reflexively drives the cost down, 68 00:06:29,437 --> 00:06:30,657 all else being equal. 69 00:06:30,657 --> 00:06:38,937 electricity goes to compute to intelligence to work and finally settlement each layer is the 70 00:06:38,937 --> 00:06:46,757 physical input to the one above it so a constraint anywhere reprices everything downstream and an 71 00:06:46,757 --> 00:06:55,297 improvement anywhere compounds through the rest light became too cheap to meter so they got the 72 00:06:55,297 --> 00:06:59,217 work time needed to buy an hour of reading light which if you're watching this you can see it 73 00:06:59,217 --> 00:07:05,977 from 1830 to 2026 on log scale, which is hilarious because this is a steeper than linear decline 74 00:07:05,977 --> 00:07:11,697 in log scale. This is at earlywriters.com slash charts if you're listening to this. 75 00:07:12,177 --> 00:07:18,517 Light became too cheap to meter. Intelligence is next. That's a crazy way to think about it. 76 00:07:18,857 --> 00:07:24,017 Okay. Technological progress means doing more with less, and money is where the difference is saved. 77 00:07:24,017 --> 00:07:30,757 When the money supply expands, every gain in efficiency is met by new units bidding prices back up, 78 00:07:31,017 --> 00:07:36,057 and the useful work the energy performed is dissipated before anyone can hold it. 79 00:07:36,757 --> 00:07:40,937 Money with a fixed supply preserves the conversion, 80 00:07:41,537 --> 00:07:46,397 so efficiency arrives the way cheap light did, as rising purchasing power. 81 00:07:46,877 --> 00:07:51,857 We believe the gains of the singularity settle in money that costs energy to produce 82 00:07:51,857 --> 00:07:58,057 and cannot be expanded to absorb them, and this

report is the argument for why. 83 00:07:59,357 --> 00:08:07,877 Part 2. The Framework. The Stack Defined. The stack is a single conversion chain. 84 00:08:08,357 --> 00:08:13,557 Electricity becomes compute, compute becomes intelligence, intelligence becomes work, 85 00:08:13,857 --> 00:08:19,937 and work becomes payments that need somewhere final to land. Each layer is the physical input 86 00:08:19,937 --> 00:08:25,737 to the one above it. So a constraint anywhere reprices everything downstream and an improvement 87 00:08:25,737 --> 00:08:34,057 anywhere compounds through the rest. Layer 1. Energy. Everything else in the stack, 88 00:08:34,177 --> 00:08:40,857 from tokens generated to transactions settled, resolves to electricity. The raw energy is there 89 00:08:40,857 --> 00:08:46,937 in abundance. The constraint is converting it and delivering it to where the demand sits. 90 00:08:46,937 --> 00:08:51,957 Over 2,000 gigawatts of proposed generation 91 00:08:51,957 --> 00:08:54,757 waits in U.S. interconnection queues, 92 00:08:54,957 --> 00:08:57,577 but delays and surprise upgrade costs 93 00:08:57,577 --> 00:08:59,117 mean most of it will be abandoned. 94 00:08:59,777 --> 00:09:02,337 Intelligence applied to conversion 95 00:09:02,337 --> 00:09:04,537 in better solar, storage, and reactors 96 00:09:04,537 --> 00:09:06,517 makes electricity cheaper, 97 00:09:06,897 --> 00:09:10,577 and cheaper electricity makes intelligence cheaper in turn, 98 00:09:10,577 --> 00:09:13,297 the first step in the singularity. 99 00:09:14,537 --> 00:09:16,377 Layer 2. Compute 100 00:09:16,377 --> 00:09:25,077 The compute behind Frontier training runs has doubled roughly every six months, a compounding rate no prior buildout has approached. 101 00:09:25,757 --> 00:09:33,137 Capability follows compute, with the length of tasks AI can complete doubling every four to seven months. 102 00:09:33,137 --> 00:09:42,517 The acceleration is reflexive. This July, a Frontier model designed a working chip in a 48-hour run with no human intervention, 103 00:09:42,517 --> 00:09:48,417 a chip built to run a smaller version of the model that designed it. 104 00:09:49,397 --> 00:09:51,737 Layer 3. Models 105 00:09:51,737 --> 00:09:55,437 That same compounding destroys the business case, 106 00:09:55,737 --> 00:09:59,657 since every frontier model becomes the cheap commodity option within a year 107 00:09:59,657 --> 00:10:03,257 and open-weight releases set the floor near zero. 108 00:10:03,777 --> 00:10:06,517 Each generation now helps build the next, 109 00:10:06,917 --> 00:10:09,497 generating the training data, writing the training code, 110 00:10:09,697 --> 00:10:11,597 and teaching the smaller models that follow. 111 00:10:11,597 --> 00:10:14,877 Capability compounds on two axes 112 00:10:14,877 --> 00:10:16,917 With compute scaling below 113 00:10:16,917 --> 00:10:18,537 And algorithmic progress 114 00:10:18,537 --> 00:10:33,833 Cutting the price of a given intelligence level By roughly 10x a year If that actually accurate that insane The labs sit closer to the memory manufacturers than to the software companies they are valued like 115 00:10:34,493 --> 00:10:43,453 Layer 4. Harnesses. So the switching cost in AI lives a layer above the model, and it deepens 116 00:10:43,453 --> 00:10:48,773 with use. The code itself is easy to copy, with open source implementation setting the floor price 117 00:10:48,773 --> 00:10:55,533 near zero. So the durable value sits in the operating context a harness accumulates. The 118 00:10:55,533 --> 00:11:02,533 memory, tools, credentials, evaluations, approvals, budgets, routing, and audit trails that build up 119 00:11:02,533 --> 00:11:09,833 around real work. The effect is measurable, as identical weights that solved 2% of real software 120 00:11:09,833 --> 00:11:15,893 bugs in a chat window solved six times as many inside an early harness that could read files and 121 00:11:15,893 --> 00:11:23,493 run tests. Models underneath get swapped constantly on quality, cost, latency, and policy, 122 00:11:23,853 --> 00:11:30,933 and the harness is what makes those swaps routine, since nobody rebuilds that context every time. 123 00:11:31,453 --> 00:11:42,153 Layer 5. Agents. Work priced in tokens is work priced in electricity, and every layer below this 124 00:11:42,153 --> 00:11:49,333 one is driving that price towards zero. Labor stops scaling with people at this layer, since 125 00:11:49,333 --> 00:11:54,253 one person can direct a dozen agents and an agent can spawn more when the task splits. 126 00:11:54,793 --> 00:12:00,533 The work turns self-directed as well because agents now build and test the layers beneath them. 127 00:12:01,393 --> 00:12:08,593 Layer 6. Identity. So identity inverts from something granted from above to something the 128 00:12:08,593 --> 00:12:15,713 agent generates itself. On Noster, that is a key pair, a private key created in milliseconds with 129 00:12:15,713 --> 00:12:22,853 nobody's permission and a public key anyone can verify. Company-issued accounts fail here twice. 130 00:12:23,493 --> 00:12:29,493 Since agents multiplying by the billions overwhelm any issuer and whatever an issuer grants, 131 00:12:29,653 --> 00:12:35,533 it can revoke, erasing that graph along with the balance on one terms of service update. 132 00:12:35,533 --> 00:12:48,473 The identity lives in the signatures on a decentralized network rather than on any server, so an agent banned from one relay reposts the same signed record elsewhere and loses nothing. 133 00:12:49,353 --> 00:12:51,953 Level 7. Coordination 134 00:12:51,953 --> 00:13:02,273 The model context protocol has become the default way to expose a system to a model, an open specification with no gatekeeper metering what flows through it. 135 00:13:02,273 --> 00:13:07,733 The agent-to-agent specification lets agents built by different vendors delegate to one another, 136 00:13:08,093 --> 00:13:10,213 and delegation

changes what capability means, 137 00:13:10,453 --> 00:13:14,953 since an agent that can hire specialists outperforms any single model working alone. 138 00:13:15,373 --> 00:13:18,033 The shared workspace remains the unsolved third, 139 00:13:18,233 --> 00:13:23,173 since in Slack and Discord an agent is a bot account subject to the revocation problem above, 140 00:13:23,413 --> 00:13:30,153 while Buzz, an open-source project from Block, makes humans and agents peers who each hold their own keys. 141 00:13:32,273 --> 00:13:34,693 Layer 8. Value Transfer 142 00:13:34,693 --> 00:13:39,893 Money has to move at the speed of the work it pays for. 143 00:13:40,473 --> 00:13:46,553 Intent of a cent amounts at the frequency of API calls with finality in seconds 144 00:13:46,553 --> 00:13:49,893 because an agent cannot wait on a dispute process. 145 00:13:50,673 --> 00:13:52,813 The card networks were built for none of this, 146 00:13:53,093 --> 00:13:58,013 since a fixed fee per authorization makes a micropayment cost more to process 147 00:13:58,013 --> 00:14:03,093 than the thing even being bought, and settlement that takes days cannot serve work that finishes 148 00:14:03,093 --> 00:14:09,833 in seconds. What replaces them splits into rails, which move the money, and standards, 149 00:14:10,033 --> 00:14:15,513 which tell a machine how to ask for it. Neither specification collects a toll, so the durable 150 00:14:15,513 --> 00:14:19,073 income goes to whoever issues the money the payments are made in. 151 00:14:19,673 --> 00:14:26,193 Layer 9. Settlement. The singularity accelerates the build-out of everything 152 00:14:26,193 --> 00:14:29,753 except the money at the end of the stack. 153 00:14:30,373 --> 00:14:34,813 Every other layer's scarcity gets competed away eventually, 154 00:14:34,813 --> 00:14:40,413 but Bitcoin's supply stays fixed no matter how much demand shows up. 155 00:14:40,833 --> 00:14:43,213 So as the stack makes everything cheaper, 156 00:14:43,713 --> 00:14:48,313 whoever holds the fixed money watches their purchasing power rise. 157 00:14:50,513 --> 00:14:53,233 The frame is the analytical tool, 158 00:14:53,233 --> 00:15:02,493 Placing an event on its layer tells you how quickly supply can respond and where the value it creates will settle. 159 00:15:03,093 --> 00:15:14,613 A power contract and an agent payment standard sit seven layers apart but move the same variable, the cost of finished work, from opposite ends of the chain. 160 00:15:15,913 --> 00:15:18,293 Part 3. The Evidence 161 00:15:18,293 --> 00:15:21,433 The acceleration is measurable. 162 00:15:21,433 --> 00:15:27,653 The singularity is best defined operationally, as a period in which the rate of improvement 163 00:15:27,653 --> 00:15:46,090 accelerates across enough independent domains that no single reading can be dismissed as hype Compute 4 Frontier Training Growth Compute Epic AI estimates that the computation used to train frontier AI models has been growing four 164 00:15:46,090 --> 00:15:52,430 to five times per year, a doubling roughly every six months. Moore's Law, the benchmark for 165 00:15:52,430 --> 00:15:59,090 relentless compounding across five decades, doubled every two years, and this build-out runs four 166 00:15:59,090 --> 00:16:07,770 times faster. Adoption. Two months. ChatGPT to 100 million users. The telephone took roughly 75 167 00:16:07,770 --> 00:16:14,590 years to reach 100 million users. ChatGPT reached 100 million monthly users in about two months. 168 00:16:15,450 --> 00:16:20,710 Even that record should fall because the next wave of products will be adopted by agents as 169 00:16:20,710 --> 00:16:25,250 well as people, and agents adopt valuable tools as fast as they can read the specification. 170 00:16:25,250 --> 00:16:33,930 Capital. 713 billion. Hyperscaler CapEx planned for 2026. 171 00:16:34,290 --> 00:16:41,830 The entire 13-year Apollo program cost about $309 billion in today's dollars. 172 00:16:42,290 --> 00:16:45,450 The distinction from prior manias is the funding source. 173 00:16:45,890 --> 00:16:51,110 Since the late 1990s, fiber build-out was financed with debt by carriers that never earned it back, 174 00:16:51,110 --> 00:16:56,550 while this one is paid for out of the operating profits of the most profitable companies in history. 175 00:16:58,030 --> 00:17:02,710 Energy. Four-year U.S. electricity demand forecast. 176 00:17:03,430 --> 00:17:08,330 After two decades of essentially flat grid consumption, the EIA now forecasts 177 00:17:08,330 --> 00:17:13,770 the strongest four-year growth in U.S. electricity demand since 2000, 178 00:17:14,210 --> 00:17:20,070 naming data centers alongside manufacturing on shoring and electrification as the drivers, 179 00:17:20,070 --> 00:17:28,490 A demand line that stayed flat through the entire smartphone and cloud era has bent, and it is not waiting for the grid. 180 00:17:29,550 --> 00:17:34,130 Capability. 12-hour Metaer autonomous task horizon. 181 00:17:35,110 --> 00:17:41,850 Metaer measures the length of tasks AI systems complete autonomously at a 50% success rate. 182 00:17:42,270 --> 00:17:46,450 In 2019, the best model handled a task taking a human about two seconds. 183 00:17:46,450 --> 00:17:50,710 The doubling time has compressed from every seven months to roughly every four. 184 00:17:51,010 --> 00:17:59,910 And even at the stricter threshold, the trend puts a full working week of unsupervised output inside a decade-long earnings forecast. 185 00:18:01,170 --> 00:18:06,750 One year of AI CapEx buys two Apollo programs. 186 00:18:07,570 --> 00:18:12,950 U.S. hyperscaler capital expenditure against the Apollo program inflation-adjusted. 187 00:18:12,950 --> 00:18:20,330 One year of planned AI CapEx buys more than two entire Apollo programs in today's dollars. 188 00:18:21,190 --> 00:18:22,790 Part four, the money. 189 00:18:23,530 --> 00:18:26,430 Deflation is the normal state. 190 00:18:27,310 -->

00:18:36,150 Productivity is exploding, and life does not feel cheaper for monetary reasons and not technological ones. 191 00:18:36,150 --> 00:18:50,530 In the last three decades of the 19th century, under gold-denominated money, the American price level drifted steadily lower while real output per person grew at a rate comparable to the strongest post-war decades. 192 00:18:51,330 --> 00:18:59,750 Mild deflation set a higher hurdle rate instead of paralyzing capital, and the country still laid track and built steel at a formidable pace. 193 00:19:00,550 --> 00:19:07,530 Deflation is therefore the normal state of technological progress under a money nobody can expand at will. 194 00:19:07,530 --> 00:19:18,110 The modern reflex against it is institutional and not economic, since the Federal Reserve adopted its explicit 2% target only in January 2012. 195 00:19:19,150 --> 00:19:22,530 Nearly all growth arrived after 1800. 196 00:19:23,230 --> 00:19:28,930 World GDP from 1700 to 2015 in 2011 international dollars. 197 00:19:28,930 --> 00:19:32,330 The Debt Arithmetic 198 00:19:32,330 --> 00:19:36,770 The System That Cannot Allow Deflation 199 00:19:36,770 --> 00:19:43,530 In a debt-based monetary order, falling prices are intolerable as a matter of arithmetic. 200 00:19:44,310 --> 00:19:50,190 A loan is written in fixed nominal dollars, while the borrower's revenue is whatever prices the market will bear. 201 00:19:50,190 --> 00:19:56,310 So when technological deflation pushes down prices, the income shrinks and the principal does not. 202 00:19:56,890 --> 00:20:02,430 Irving Fisher set out the spiral in 1933, where borrowers default, banks pull credit, 203 00:20:02,770 --> 00:20:04,750 spending falls, and prices drop further. 204 00:20:04,750 --> 00:20:10,650 The sequence that failed roughly 9,000 U.S. banks and contracted the money stock by a third 205 00:20:10,650 --> 00:20:12,810 between 1930 and 1933. 206 00:20:13,770 --> 00:20:19,750 Every unit of technological deflation therefore has to be met with offsetting monetary expansion, 207 00:20:20,150 --> 00:20:25,010 and the singularity turns that from a maintenance task into a race. 208 00:20:25,010 --> 00:20:35,290 $4.7 trillion is the U.S. M2 money supply in January of 2000. $22 trillion is the U.S. M2 209 00:20:35,290 --> 00:20:42,870 money supply today. $40 trillion is the federal debt. Interest above $1 trillion. 210 00:20:43,770 --> 00:20:49,990 The denominator keeps expanding. So there's a chart of the U.S. M2 money supply from 2000 211 00:20:50,011 --> 00:20:51,571 to 2026. 212 00:20:52,971 --> 00:20:56,371 BLS Component Data, 2002 Today 213 00:20:56,371 --> 00:20:58,511 The Two Economies 214 00:20:58,511 --> 00:21:02,371 BLS Component Data shows the two economies side by side. 215 00:21:02,851 --> 00:21:07,791 Everything manufactured and shippable, from televisions to software, has fallen steeply 216 00:21:07,791 --> 00:21:14,271 in price since 2000, while hospital services, tuition, childcare, and housing have outrun 217 00:21:14,271 --> 00:21:14,971 wages. 218 00:21:14,971 --> 00:21:23,131 Technology drives deflation in the reproducible half of life, while monetary expansion lands in the scarce half. 219 00:21:23,131 --> 00:21:31,951 And the stack is aimed at moving the scarce half, priced mostly in trained human time, into the reproducible column. 220 00:21:32,331 --> 00:21:34,771 That's wild when you say it that way, but it's totally true. 221 00:21:35,691 --> 00:21:36,511 The Collision 222 00:21:36,511 --> 00:21:42,191 The deflationary force now arriving is aimed directly at labor, 223 00:21:42,191 --> 00:21:49,671 since agents convert capability into completed work that used to require a salary and trained human time 224 00:21:49,671 --> 00:21:53,691 is the dominant cost in everything that has grown more expensive for decades. 225 00:21:54,171 --> 00:22:01,431 The monetary system has to answer with expansion large enough to keep $40 trillion of federal debt serviceable, 226 00:22:01,871 --> 00:22:05,291 stretching the unit of account to absorb an exponential. 227 00:22:05,291 --> 00:22:12,711 most households whose wealth sits in wages and deposits risk living through the largest 228 00:22:12,711 --> 00:22:20,631 productivity boom on record as a cost of living squeeze that is so depressing to say out loud but 229 00:22:20,631 --> 00:22:27,251 that is literally what what we're looking at with the structure of what's coming because they don't 230 00:22:27,251 --> 00:22:31,971 and it's all because of the money it's all freaking god it's everything that the whole 231 00:22:31,971 --> 00:22:38,731 thing is always because of the damn money. Part 5. The Position. The purest expression 232 00:22:38,731 --> 00:22:44,611 of the singularity. The singularity does not float free of the physical world because a model cannot 233 00:22:44,611 --> 00:22:51,191 immediately generate the electricity it consumes. Well, the machine still has to buy. Somebody has 234 00:22:51,191 --> 00:22:57,331 to sign a 20-year power purchase agreement promising megawatt hours in 2046 at a price 235 00:22:57,331 --> 00:23:03,091 written in 2026. The faster the machine improves, the more its future hangs on the slowest 236 00:23:03,091 --> 00:23:08,091 instruments in the economy, contracts that only work if the money holds. 237 00:23:09,551 --> 00:23:16,011 Under expandable money, being close to the newly created supply wins, which is how a company 238 00:23:16,011 --> 00:23:24,011 burning cash outbids a profitable manufacturer for power. Under fixed money, only output that 239 00:23:24,011 --> 00:23:33,191 customers actually pay for wins. Participation. There is no direct way to own the singularity, 240 00:23:33,511 --> 00:23:38,871 but every layer of the stack can be owned somewhere, and there is money to be made in each. 241 00:23:39,331 --> 00:23:43,731 The difficulty is that every one of those positions adds a way to be right about the acceleration 242

00:23:43,731 --> 00:23:49,931 and wrong about the outcome, since a layer bet has to name the winner before competition arrives. 243 00:23:50,451 --> 00:23:54,351 In our view, Bitcoin is the purest expression of the singularity stack, 244 00:23:54,591 --> 00:23:57,191 in the position with the fewest ways to lose. 245 00:23:57,891 --> 00:24:03,351 Every conversion from energy to finished work settles in money at the end, 246 00:24:03,731 --> 00:24:09,831 so holding the settlement asset claims a share without naming the layer or the company that books the margin. 247 00:24:10,511 --> 00:24:13,851 It carries no earnings to miss and no shares to dilute, 248 00:24:14,091 --> 00:24:17,011 and no competitor can ship a better version of a fixed supply. 249 00:24:17,911 --> 00:24:22,111 On-chain estimates put roughly half of Bitcoin's supply dormant for more than a year, 250 00:24:22,371 --> 00:24:25,931 so rising demand competes for the fraction actually available. 251 00:24:27,071 --> 00:24:29,031 Who keeps the gains? 252 00:24:29,771 --> 00:24:35,151 Intelligence priced near the electricity behind it means expert help in medicine, 253 00:24:35,151 --> 00:24:39,731 law, engineering, and education for roughly the cost of light. 254 00:24:40,251 --> 00:24:43,951 And the surplus reaches people who never touch a model. 255 00:24:44,591 --> 00:24:49,371 The industrial era already ran this experiment under a money nobody could print. 256 00:24:49,371 --> 00:24:58,031 An ordinary saver who simply held gold-backed money watched railroads and cheap steel arrive as rising purchasing power. 257 00:24:58,511 --> 00:25:02,751 That transition is running again, at the singularity's pace. 258 00:25:03,591 --> 00:25:11,991 The cost of intelligence keeps falling toward the cost of electricity, and everyone will share in what that intelligence can do. 259 00:25:12,751 --> 00:25:18,531 Bitcoin captures the gains directly, while in dollar terms, they are inflated away. 260 00:25:20,091 --> 00:25:25,271 Differentiated business at any layer, one whose advantage survives the arrival of new supply, 261 00:25:25,711 --> 00:25:27,951 keeps its margin through the transition. 262 00:25:28,691 --> 00:25:34,091 Larger businesses can now be built with less capital and fewer people than at any point in history, 263 00:25:34,091 --> 00:25:38,371 since labor that once required headcount is provisioned by the token. 264 00:25:38,971 --> 00:25:41,971 So the returns to a real edge have never been higher. 265 00:25:42,671 --> 00:25:44,871 Early riders invest in both. 266 00:25:45,491 --> 00:25:47,711 Are you accelerating the singularity? 267 00:25:48,491 --> 00:25:49,431 We want to hear from you. 268 00:25:49,431 --> 00:25:51,491 Enter your name and email and address and a message. 269 00:25:52,571 --> 00:25:53,711 Hey, guys. 270 00:25:54,531 --> 00:25:55,011 Oops. 271 00:25:55,331 --> 00:25:56,631 I'm going to send a message. 272 00:25:57,431 --> 00:26:12,145 Guy Thank you We will be in touch I want to see if they respond something uh so okay so uh the one of the the things talking about like who keeps the gains i really like this section where is it 273 00:26:12,145 --> 00:26:16,885 in our view bitcoin is a purest expression of the singularity stack so here's the funny thing 274 00:26:16,885 --> 00:26:23,565 so this is i've talked about this in the show on like the idea of money and what it actually what 275 00:26:23,565 --> 00:26:30,925 its role ends up being in the economy. And we talk about it from a personal use case is money 276 00:26:30,925 --> 00:26:37,085 ends up like being a hedge against uncertainty, right? You invest in it or you hold on to it. 277 00:26:37,145 --> 00:26:42,925 And it's kind of like this promise of society to get back what you put in it. So the less 278 00:26:42,925 --> 00:26:48,485 uncertain you are, anything that you concretize into any money that you make concrete into some 279 00:26:48,485 --> 00:26:53,705 specific thing, you increase the uncertainty of whether or not it can actually provide what you 280 00:26:53,705 --> 00:26:58,405 want. You know, you put it into a house and a hurricane might come through, a flood might come 281 00:26:58,405 --> 00:27:04,265 through and destroy the house. But if you put it in money, it can be in a boat as easily as it can 282 00:27:04,265 --> 00:27:10,845 be in a house when you need it, of course, barring society collapsing. So money is not only a hedge 283 00:27:10,845 --> 00:27:15,725 against uncertainty, but this is another thing that we've talked about is how it plays out as 284 00:27:15,725 --> 00:27:22,225 a kind of investment in everything, right? So when you're actually investing in the market, 285 00:27:22,225 --> 00:27:27,185 and you're trying to pick winners and losers, or you're trying to invest in the singularity, 286 00:27:27,445 --> 00:27:30,665 because, you know, you're like, oh, Nvidia is the one that's going to explode. 287 00:27:31,285 --> 00:27:37,605 But you don't know which thing's actually going to take the market share or which is going to be 288 00:27:37,605 --> 00:27:42,305 obsoleted, you know, explode to 200 million users and then be obsoleted in two months, 289 00:27:42,305 --> 00:27:47,045 because things are going to be moving so fast. You have an insanely high margin of uncertainty 290 00:27:47,045 --> 00:27:54,565 in making any of those sorts of decisions on top of the fact that you have management risk and you 291 00:27:54,565 --> 00:27:58,965 have responsibility risk because someone could just kind of go crazy or make stupid decisions. 292 00:27:59,325 --> 00:28:04,685 Like it's not even simply that they're placed in the right location or that they're primed for, 293 00:28:04,865 --> 00:28:09,845 you know, the various growth strategies or the production. Something could just go wrong. 294 00:28:09,845 --> 00:28:14,005 Somebody could trip on something and smash a button and delete the whole thing, right? 295 00:28:14,305 -->

00:28:18,505 So the risk, you introduce enormous amounts of counterparty risk. 296 00:28:18,605 --> 00:28:19,305 That's what you do. 297 00:28:19,605 --> 00:28:24,165 Whereas Bitcoin, when you have a sound money, you do obviously have to trust the money's 298 00:28:24,165 --> 00:28:26,905 capability of ensuring its scarcity. 299 00:28:27,505 --> 00:28:33,005 But as soon as you can get past that, as soon as you have some assurance or level of trust 300 00:28:33,005 --> 00:28:39,305 in the scarcity of the unit that's actually measuring that progress, you actually have 301 00:28:39,305 --> 00:28:45,965 a non-counterparty risk way to actually obtain the hurdle rate. So the hurdle rate, you know, 302 00:28:46,025 --> 00:28:51,405 the cost of capital over time will increase dramatically if there's an enormous amount 303 00:28:51,405 --> 00:28:56,305 of growth expected. And the very reason is, is because you don't want to invest. You don't want 304 00:28:56,305 --> 00:29:00,285 to waste resources. Everything's scarce, right? You have 10 houses. You don't want nine of those 305 00:29:00,285 --> 00:29:06,005 houses taken up by a bunch of stuff that's making a half percent improvement or a 1% loss on 306 00:29:06,005 --> 00:29:12,085 productivity or manufacturing if that last house or that the one out of the 10 is actually producing 307 00:29:12,085 --> 00:29:18,025 a doubling in efficiency and productivity gains in that same economy. You want all 10 of the houses 308 00:29:18,025 --> 00:29:24,865 to be put toward that and it better be expensive as hell. It better cost 20 percent, 30 percent 309 00:29:24,865 --> 00:29:30,505 to actually rent out or lease out one of those houses because it's otherwise losing or costing 310 00:29:30,505 --> 00:29:37,965 us a 100% gain in productivity and boosting of a standard of living. So that's why hurdle rate, 311 00:29:38,205 --> 00:29:43,005 that's why your interest rate is going to skyrocket during a period of immense growth. 312 00:29:43,005 --> 00:29:48,705 And it's exactly why deflation is going to have to come in massive or I guess inflation, 313 00:29:48,845 --> 00:29:52,725 actually the opposite of that, because it would produce enormous amounts of deflation because you 314 00:29:52,725 --> 00:29:58,345 have such enormous growth and productivity when, when the reverse has to be true in the money. 315 00:29:58,345 --> 00:30:28,325 If you're on, if you're dead, if you're $40 trillion in debt, you sure as hell better print the ever loving crap out of it because you'll never pay back $40 trillion. When everything's plummeting to like prices are plummeting to the cost of electricity for practically everything that we do. There's absolutely no way out of that except inflating yourself into, into nothing. If you inflate away your debt, your obligation and your interest rates, you know, if you're legitimately looking at the possibility of a 20%, 30% interest rate, 316 00:30:28,345 --> 00:30:36,225 right um and i don't even think that's crazy if if anything resembling this this whole idea of this 317 00:30:36,225 --> 00:30:42,405 reflexive feedback loop which i'm sitting here working on an application that i've vibe coded 318 00:30:42,405 --> 00:30:47,665 myself and i've been improving and i've got like my debug when i like have a problem with this 319 00:30:47,665 --> 00:30:54,525 i literally have a little debug note thing up in the top right in fact let me let me show it um 320 00:30:54,525 --> 00:30:57,285 Can I, let me just pause. 321 00:30:57,285 --> 00:31:01,645 Alright, so this looks, this looks bonkers, maybe I can cut my screen off. 322 00:31:01,645 --> 00:31:02,645 Okay, here we go. 323 00:31:02,645 --> 00:31:04,965 Well, it still does the interface over and over again. 324 00:31:04,965 --> 00:31:31,238 So this is the application that I built and so like the screen share is just on screen and I can switch over to you know sharing like a window or something taking off my camera did nothing But I can this is a full on like editing app And I built all this stuff And when I like the process the changing of the process 325 00:31:31,238 --> 00:31:43,658 So I found how frustrating and annoying it was to constantly go over or talk about the problems, like type out the problems that I have into AI, right? 326 00:31:44,078 --> 00:31:54,158 So, and talking about like the harness in the singularity stack, actually, this refers right back to this, is I have agents basically on all my machines now. 327 00:31:54,318 --> 00:31:55,438 So check this out. 328 00:31:55,438 --> 00:32:07,058 So this is a debug node. And what I'm doing right now is this thing is recording logs of where my cursor is and where I am clicking on stuff so that I can keep track. 329 00:32:07,558 --> 00:32:14,778 Or basically the AI knows exactly what I'm doing and what is happening in the actual application. 330 00:32:15,718 --> 00:32:24,338 And by the way, for the AI, this is a transcript. I'm recording this into an episode, but I'm actually making an accurate note here. 331 00:32:24,338 --> 00:32:27,938 So when I try to add a source right here, it just blinks off. 332 00:32:28,078 --> 00:32:29,078 It's not actually working. 333 00:32:29,458 --> 00:32:32,598 I would like to be able to add a second source. 334 00:32:32,858 --> 00:32:38,658 It's basically trying to take one screen share as I have to replace it. 335 00:32:38,738 --> 00:32:41,358 So I have to close it right here and open up a new one. 336 00:32:41,898 --> 00:32:43,838 Whereas what I want to do is I want to be able to add a new source 337 00:32:43,838 --> 00:32:46,718 and click on a new window or a new device 338 00:32:46,718 --> 00:32:51,898 and then have this show up in my double 339 00:32:51,898 --> 00:32:55,018 because I've got the, it doesn't come up right now 340 00:32:55,018 --> 00:32:56,238 just because I don't have anything in it. 341 00:32:56,518 --> 00:32:58,698 But so that I can show them both on screen 342 00:32:58,698

--> 00:32:59,918 at the exact same time, right? 343 00:32:59,958 --> 00:33:02,538 As I can show my window for my browser 344 00:33:02,538 --> 00:33:07,418 and then another window for the read or something, 345 00:33:07,598 --> 00:33:10,238 or of course, Pearcast, the app itself, 346 00:33:10,318 --> 00:33:11,478 the studio that I'm working in. 347 00:33:12,338 --> 00:33:15,578 And, but right now, for whatever reason, 348 00:33:15,718 --> 00:33:17,698 this does not actually react that way. 349 00:33:17,778 --> 00:33:19,078 So I want to be able to stack these 350 00:33:19,078 --> 00:33:22,538 and have two of them actually working or running 351 00:33:22,538 --> 00:33:23,638 at the exact same time. 352 00:33:24,018 --> 00:33:25,658 So that'll close it out. 353 00:33:25,838 --> 00:33:26,798 So I stop there. 354 00:33:26,958 --> 00:33:27,958 That's my debug note. 355 00:33:28,398 --> 00:33:31,238 And it literally takes the log of everything 356 00:33:31,238 --> 00:33:32,058 that I've clicked on. 357 00:33:32,758 --> 00:33:36,798 And we've been building a peer-to-peer engine 358 00:33:36,798 --> 00:33:43,098 for just any general networking and operating use case. 359 00:33:43,098 --> 00:33:52,238 so what actually happens is that that note is recorded in the background and then is saved to 360 00:33:52,238 --> 00:33:58,738 a pair drive space or just is saved to a space in our peer-to-peer engine and then syncs to my 361 00:33:58,738 --> 00:34:03,918 other machines and to my agent and my agent immediately gets a notification that there's 362 00:34:03,918 --> 00:34:08,198 a new thing and the agent goes ahead and just immediately starts fixing it and so I can just 363 00:34:08,198 --> 00:34:14,858 kind of like think about and every single time I have one little issue or concern or something where 364 00:34:14,858 --> 00:34:19,638 I like clicked on something and it didn't behave like I wanted to behave again I don't have to go 365 00:34:19,638 --> 00:34:25,098 out and text and like do this very minute explanation of like I'm in the sidebar on the 366 00:34:25,098 --> 00:34:30,898 right side and it's in the the button is the thing and it's not right like the agent can see 367 00:34:30,898 --> 00:34:36,578 exactly what's happening and it has logs of exactly where I clicked I basically have 368 00:34:36,578 --> 00:34:42,798 immensely, like extremely quick iteration. And my favorite thing is that because I've got it 369 00:34:42,798 --> 00:34:48,638 plugged into Pear Core, the Pear Drive, there's too many naming conventions, but the peer-to-peer 370 00:34:48,638 --> 00:34:55,498 engine that we have in the background is that I'm hosting all of this myself and it will sync with 371 00:34:55,498 --> 00:35:02,038 all my other devices. I can plug in effects and elements and stuff straight from my Linux machine 372 00:35:02,038 --> 00:35:05,898 so that I can drop them right into this timeline and it will just automatically download them in 373 00:35:05,898 --> 00:35:09,998 the background and then display them and all that networking is free and it connects right to my 374 00:35:09,998 --> 00:35:15,518 machine I can do it land like here at home or away and this has been you know three years in the 375 00:35:15,518 --> 00:35:19,418 making for all this stuff the engine took an enormous amount of time because we had to go 376 00:35:19,418 --> 00:35:23,298 back to the drawing board like five different times but I've just been vibe coding like crazy 377 00:35:23,298 --> 00:35:28,698 I've just been building everything that I can possibly think of that I want to have in my 378 00:35:28,698 --> 00:35:34,678 workflow but my ability to produce the reason I am doing this read is because I am making my entire 379 00:35:34,678 --> 00:35:40,398 process and my entire workflow customized around the way that I work and the way that I think. 380 00:35:40,718 --> 00:35:43,818 And it'll be really cool. I might share this out. Maybe other people even want this app. 381 00:35:44,038 --> 00:35:49,098 It's super cool. My favorite thing about it is that I can edit and cut things out on the fly. 382 00:35:49,098 --> 00:35:54,698 I can click into this timeline immediately and look at my, you know, waveform, which I don't 383 00:35:54,698 --> 00:35:59,158 have the right now it will transcribe in the background, but I don't have the edit by text yet. 384 00:35:59,418 --> 00:36:04,618 That's something I'll be adding in, but I can click on it and then just edit. I can cut something 385 00:36:04,618 --> 00:36:07,358 and then put my playhead right where I want to record again 386 00:36:07,358 --> 00:36:09,258 and then start recording right back into it. 387 00:36:09,678 --> 00:36:11,038 And then because I've got a peer-to-peer engine, 388 00:36:11,218 --> 00:36:13,938 I'm going to get, right now it's just a remote control app, 389 00:36:14,618 --> 00:36:18,218 but I'm getting an app, basically the mobile version of this, 390 00:36:18,518 --> 00:36:19,938 so that I can pick up my mobile phone. 391 00:36:20,858 --> 00:36:40,291 I can stop here pick up my mobile phone and hold it up or go outside or something anywhere I don have to be on land I don have to be in the same network at home uh and record into the exact same timeline It awesome And this is making me so much more productive already Like I know 392 00:36:40,291 --> 00:36:46,431 that this building out these things in the workflow is going to have a feedback loop in my own 393 00:36:46,431 --> 00:36:55,311 system, my own like production of content. Uh, and at the exact same time, my production of the 394 00:36:55,311 --> 00:36:59,611 content using like the debug notes, that's the thing is that everything that we're building is 395 00:36:59,611 --> 00:37:04,951 going to be pair core enabled so that, you know, everything talks the same language, you know, 396 00:37:04,951 --> 00:37:08,411 it's kind of like the web, except that it's just peer to peer. So it doesn't, doesn't really

matter 397 00:37:08,411 --> 00:37:12,631 what or how it's just establishing connections and then sharing information. And we have like 398 00:37:12,631 --> 00:37:16,911 kind of a schema and a base protocol for doing it in all the various ways you want to share 399 00:37:16,911 --> 00:37:23,131 information. And pair drive, the one that I'm sure you've heard me talk about is the one that's 400 00:37:23,131 --> 00:37:29,051 basically just the files, like thousands to hundreds of thousands of files. I have, I don't 401 00:37:29,051 --> 00:37:36,591 know, 300, 400,000 files or something on my Linux machine that is shared with my Mac right now, 402 00:37:36,651 --> 00:37:40,251 which I think I actually closed it because I was, I was working on something, but I have the same 403 00:37:40,251 --> 00:37:48,731 debug notes idea inside of pair drive syncing over pair drive to my agents to fix problems 404 00:37:48,731 --> 00:37:56,331 and sort out when things aren't working properly and it's just everything has sped up so much 405 00:37:56,331 --> 00:37:59,931 and then the same thing is the reason i have multiple agents on multiple machines is because 406 00:37:59,931 --> 00:38:07,251 since they can all read transcripts for the exact same and and i can also sync my wikis like my 407 00:38:07,251 --> 00:38:14,031 memory, my harness data and saved connections and memory and project files and all that stuff. 408 00:38:14,071 --> 00:38:19,511 I can sync those between devices as well so that all of my agents basically have, they can, you 409 00:38:19,511 --> 00:38:25,191 know, kind of have their own separate isolated context, but then they can also get all of the 410 00:38:25,191 --> 00:38:29,751 project context together. They can all have the same context about the project. But the really 411 00:38:29,751 --> 00:38:35,511 cool thing is that like trying to test peer to peer stuff or networking stuff in a closed environment, 412 00:38:35,511 --> 00:38:41,651 like on this computer, you inevitably just you're missing so many, so much of the nuance 413 00:38:41,651 --> 00:38:42,351 of like the networking. 414 00:38:42,491 --> 00:38:46,811 Of course, you can find another fake computer inside the computer that you're on, right? 415 00:38:46,971 --> 00:38:50,111 You don't have a networking problem from your computer to your own computer. 416 00:38:50,831 --> 00:38:56,251 And having agents on different machines, which I built a little chat app again on top of 417 00:38:56,251 --> 00:38:58,171 Paracore does the exact same thing. 418 00:38:58,531 --> 00:39:03,051 It just syncs messages, which are basically so no-ster-signed events. 419 00:39:03,051 --> 00:39:09,731 That's the really crazy thing is that I'm doing exactly what they're saying in this thing because it's the easy way to do it. 420 00:39:10,091 --> 00:39:20,631 Paracore is just a set of signed keys and I have a Noster ID on top of it that basically is the master for the account. 421 00:39:21,211 --> 00:39:28,611 So you sign in just by saying this public key is also me in the group and then you sign out to remove and update that list. 422 00:39:28,611 --> 00:39:34,611 and because of that though is that my agents just generated their own keys and then I join them 423 00:39:34,611 --> 00:39:40,471 into I add them to the conversation and then they can chat back and forth and so it's kind of like 424 00:39:40,471 --> 00:39:47,151 buzz it's very much like buzz except for the fact that buzz did not have I actually stole a couple 425 00:39:47,151 --> 00:39:51,571 of things from buzz very recently because I forgot that it even existed until I read this piece the 426 00:39:51,571 --> 00:39:56,911 first time and I was like that's right I forgot about buzz and so we took some of the examples of 427 00:39:56,911 --> 00:40:02,831 things that are helpful inside of Buzz and applied them to the little random chat thing that I built, 428 00:40:03,231 --> 00:40:07,491 which I might release it. I don't really care. I'm not trying to build a chat app. I just, 429 00:40:07,491 --> 00:40:15,351 I needed it from my agents. And obviously the clear path to actually having it work well was 430 00:40:15,351 --> 00:40:20,871 to have them generate their own keys. And the agents literally have their own keys and we have 431 00:40:20,871 --> 00:40:26,031 our own conversation stack and I just have like budgets. So like I can set, you know, 432 00:40:26,031 --> 00:40:32,491 you guys go for an hour or two or use this many tokens before you stop. 433 00:40:32,991 --> 00:40:35,891 My main way that I use it is rounds, right? 434 00:40:36,051 --> 00:40:40,091 So if Kimmy on my Mac Mini is talking to Kimmy on my Linux machine, 435 00:40:40,211 --> 00:40:44,171 they're allowed to go three rounds back and forth until I interject or respond. 436 00:40:44,571 --> 00:40:47,951 Or I can bump that and be like add 10 rounds to this conversation 437 00:40:47,951 --> 00:40:51,691 so they can go back and forth and they can test things out and then send reports. 438 00:40:51,691 --> 00:40:55,971 And Kimmy on my Mac Mini and my Linux are basically red teamers for Claude. 439 00:40:56,031 --> 00:41:02,131 So I have Fable on my, or I'm running Fable in my MacBook Pro. 440 00:41:02,851 --> 00:41:08,391 And so all three of these computers can work in a live, like a real networking environment 441 00:41:08,391 --> 00:41:15,871 and directly share and sync logs over problems or reasons why streaming a file took too long 442 00:41:15,871 --> 00:41:18,011 or why there's a three second delay. 443 00:41:18,791 --> 00:41:25,431 Why did the previous stream still send four chunks after the user requested for the next stream? 444 00:41:25,431 --> 00:41:27,431 like those sorts of things. 445 00:41:27,431 --> 00:41:28,431 And I can just have them. 446 00:41:28,431 --> 00:41:29,811 I can let literally let them go. 447 00:41:29,811 --> 00:41:31,971 I've done it a number of times now where I just say like, 448

00:41:31,971 --> 00:41:36,311 go for three hours and find as many bugs and edge cases 449 00:41:36,311 --> 00:41:37,671 and stuff as you can. 450 00:41:37,671 --> 00:41:39,991 And I just let them run overnight. 451 00:41:39,997 --> 00:41:44,877 a burn through 50 bucks of tokens on Kimmy in PPQ. 452 00:41:45,037 --> 00:41:47,397 I plug both of them into PPQ.ai. 453 00:41:47,877 --> 00:41:49,997 Shout out to Matt for all this. 454 00:41:51,277 --> 00:41:54,757 But like this is such a massive acceleration 455 00:41:54,757 --> 00:41:57,777 and it's huge to, 456 00:41:58,037 --> 00:42:00,397 it's such a benefit to the whole team 457 00:42:00,397 --> 00:42:02,877 because I'm working with real developers too 458 00:42:02,877 --> 00:42:06,217 who are basically back and forth with these things 459 00:42:06,217 --> 00:42:09,237 to do the careful cleanup and implementation 460 00:42:09,237 --> 00:42:17,777 of this stuff. And it's just, it's wild. It is moving so fast. Some of the things that I've 461 00:42:17,777 --> 00:42:23,757 done in the last few days, not possible three months ago, not possible at all. And it has 462 00:42:23,757 --> 00:42:29,717 accelerated everything. The fact that I have this engine now, I can build peer-to-peer networking 463 00:42:29,717 --> 00:42:35,737 apps that I can put on my phone and make iOS builds up and Android builds up extremely quickly 464 00:42:35,737 --> 00:42:42,517 and start playing around with like my chat, my chat app, which is again, nothing fancy. 465 00:42:42,757 --> 00:42:48,217 I'm not trying to build a chat app, but I was able to make an iOS build for it for my agents 466 00:42:48,217 --> 00:42:52,377 so that I can, I can just sit here and I can chat with my agents. 467 00:42:53,237 --> 00:42:58,637 And this is like a report that Claude had on the last, I was working on like icons and 468 00:42:58,637 --> 00:42:59,277 stuff like that. 469 00:42:59,277 --> 00:43:03,937 And they can reach out, they have a, you know, API with PBQ or whatever. 470 00:43:03,937 --> 00:43:06,497 so they can actually generate icons and play around with stuff. 471 00:43:06,897 --> 00:43:08,917 The Opus 5.5 is actually really good with that, 472 00:43:08,997 --> 00:43:11,317 just like building an SVG file. 473 00:43:12,697 --> 00:43:13,597 If you want to do an action, 474 00:43:13,737 --> 00:43:15,877 this is actually a note for anybody who's listening to this. 475 00:43:15,877 --> 00:43:18,257 If you want to do an animation 476 00:43:18,257 --> 00:43:22,197 or a variation on an icon or something, 477 00:43:22,577 --> 00:43:24,937 don't use an image generation model. 478 00:43:25,437 --> 00:43:27,057 Use a LLM. 479 00:43:27,717 --> 00:43:31,197 Use Opus 5.5 or something like that, 480 00:43:31,257 --> 00:43:32,197 or even Kimmy, 481 00:43:32,197 --> 00:43:36,897 because it will simply look for tools to edit and do exact things. 482 00:43:37,477 --> 00:43:39,297 And there are even things where it could use, 483 00:43:39,437 --> 00:43:42,037 like maybe an image model is necessary 484 00:43:42,037 --> 00:43:45,397 to just iterate on like general icon ideas, 485 00:43:46,177 --> 00:43:47,937 but then it can tweak them, 486 00:43:48,337 --> 00:43:51,117 literally edit things inside an app 487 00:43:51,117 --> 00:43:53,517 in like kind of a Photoshop environment. 488 00:43:53,837 --> 00:43:55,397 And it's wild. 489 00:43:55,837 --> 00:43:56,917 It's super wild. 490 00:43:58,097 --> 00:43:59,797 And like once you have a platform, 491 00:43:59,797 --> 00:44:05,957 Like I just can't get over how useful the engine that we have created is. 492 00:44:06,237 --> 00:44:20,757 Because one of the things I still, again, lots of stuff to work out in regards to the interaction and like how I deal with adding people and collaboration into this. 493 00:44:20,897 --> 00:44:22,617 But that's basically where I'm going to. 494 00:44:22,777 --> 00:44:24,737 I want to, Johnny will be listening to this. 495 00:44:24,797 --> 00:44:26,157 My producer will be listening to this. 496 00:44:26,157 --> 00:44:33,857 and I want to have it so that I can invite, 497 00:44:34,177 --> 00:44:34,977 like right now I can, 498 00:44:35,497 --> 00:44:38,657 but the collaborative editing is just not, 499 00:44:38,857 --> 00:44:39,577 it's not right. 500 00:44:39,637 --> 00:44:40,917 I haven't worked out all the kinks yet, 501 00:44:41,597 --> 00:44:43,757 but it is just like a, 502 00:44:43,897 --> 00:44:46,837 it's basically like a Git history in a sense 503 00:44:46,837 --> 00:44:51,697 on the timeline that syncs between various people. 504 00:44:52,337 --> 00:44:54,917 So what I literally want to, 505 00:44:54,917 --> 00:44:59,197 I don't think it will be as soon as I get into tackling this specifically. 506 00:45:00,537 --> 00:45:05,177 I will be able to invite Johnny in, 507 00:45:05,297 --> 00:45:08,197 and I want to be able to propose and make edits on the timeline, 508 00:45:08,357 --> 00:45:10,857 both of us working in the timeline at the exact same time. 509 00:45:11,417 --> 00:45:14,837 And there's plenty of capability that this app won't do, 510 00:45:15,497 --> 00:45:17,697 and maybe some of it will be added. 511 00:45:17,817 --> 00:45:19,377 I don't think it needs to do everything 512 00:45:19,377 --> 00:45:23,477 because it just needs to do enough to make a quick production line of content. 513 00:45:23,477 --> 00:45:32,537 And I can just continually expand this by thinking about and just talking about the things that I wanted to do. 514 00:45:32,817 --> 00:45:35,937 Like that is what's wild about this. 515 00:45:36,377 --> 00:45:46,977 So the debug notes is my vibe coding is now just me dump like brain dumping ideas out or thoughts out into all the apps that I'm doing. 516 00:45:46,977 --> 00:45:57,157 I don't type anything or explain what I'm doing or where I am in the interface for any of the stuff I'm building anymore because of this. 517 00:45:57,477 --> 00:45:59,837 And I don't have to have a

platform or a subscription. 518 00:46:00,037 --> 00:46:01,057 This is just peer-to-peer. 519 00:46:01,177 --> 00:46:03,777 It just automatically syncs between all my devices. 520 00:46:04,417 --> 00:46:05,837 And I can build anything. 521 00:46:06,337 --> 00:46:07,837 This is so freaking crazy. 522 00:46:08,077 --> 00:46:09,337 It's the most addictive thing in the world. 523 00:46:09,517 --> 00:46:11,277 I am literally addicted to vibe coding. 524 00:46:11,277 --> 00:46:16,577 I had to have a serious heart-to-heart because I hadn't produced anything for my show in a while. 525 00:46:16,977 --> 00:46:20,177 because I've been vibe coding shit. 526 00:46:20,557 --> 00:46:22,697 It's so, if you are like a creator, 527 00:46:23,297 --> 00:46:25,517 if you're somebody who just has ideas 528 00:46:25,517 --> 00:46:27,877 and you just always want to see or test stuff out, 529 00:46:28,177 --> 00:46:30,737 this is like the greatest and worst possible time 530 00:46:30,737 --> 00:46:32,457 because one of the most difficult things 531 00:46:32,457 --> 00:46:33,897 when you are a creator 532 00:46:33,897 --> 00:46:35,297 and you want to build stuff all the time 533 00:46:35,297 --> 00:46:37,237 is deciding what not to build. 534 00:46:37,577 --> 00:46:40,137 It's like, okay, I can build, 535 00:46:40,377 --> 00:46:42,497 I'll have a hundred things by the end of one day 536 00:46:42,497 --> 00:46:44,077 that I really, really want to build, 537 00:46:44,237 --> 00:46:46,197 but I can't possibly build all those things. 538 00:46:46,197 --> 00:46:57,990 So I do a good job of trying to be like okay I only going to build this one thing And then I do that for you know four months And then I have a hundred things that I trying to build And I have spread myself too thin and everything a disaster 539 00:46:57,990 --> 00:47:01,430 And I have to cut 90 of them out of my life, right? 540 00:47:01,530 --> 00:47:04,710 And, you know, narrow it back down to like three or four things. 541 00:47:05,150 --> 00:47:08,670 And I am in this constant cycle of like taking on too much crap, 542 00:47:08,970 --> 00:47:10,790 cutting it down to the stuff that really matters 543 00:47:10,790 --> 00:47:13,290 or the things that I'm like super excited about. 544 00:47:13,290 --> 00:47:21,210 but what's crazy is that like I'm so I can still be so productive and I can keep such measurable 545 00:47:21,210 --> 00:47:26,330 like concrete progress on so many of these projects like you can't you god please this 546 00:47:26,330 --> 00:47:31,470 you can't see this right now but Pericast is just open a new iteration and my agent oh my god I got 547 00:47:31,470 --> 00:47:34,730 to figure out how to do this hold on a second hold on a second I got to show you I'm gonna do this 548 00:47:34,730 --> 00:47:41,230 live so that you can see the whole entire screen this is my agent this is my agent right now 549 00:47:41,230 --> 00:47:49,630 testing the interface and building the solution to the thing I just talked about and made a memo of 550 00:47:49,630 --> 00:47:56,790 five minutes ago. And it's basically just running through everything while I am sitting here. 551 00:47:56,790 --> 00:48:04,530 This app is going to be better before I finish this episode. This is going to be applied to 552 00:48:04,530 --> 00:48:16,490 everything. Like, it's so crazy to see where we're going. And, you know, we talk about, like, 553 00:48:16,830 --> 00:48:21,670 direct feedback in an application. Like, I want to be able to have, like, my test guys, whoever's, 554 00:48:21,670 --> 00:48:26,730 like, doing this, to be able to, like, make debug notes. You know, to have, like, approved people 555 00:48:26,730 --> 00:48:32,010 with debugging notes so that other people using this can be like, why did I clicked on this thing 556 00:48:32,010 --> 00:48:59,390 And it came up over on the left side. Why would it come up on the left side? Like, I want people to just share when they're confused and see if I can get a few agents and myself to brainstorm, like do brainstorming sessions on what, you know, the lowest common denominator of confusion between various people is to make things happen very, very quickly and react intuitively to what the user's expecting. 557 00:48:59,390 --> 00:49:01,810 but it's just 558 00:49:01,810 --> 00:49:05,850 it's so wild 559 00:49:05,850 --> 00:49:08,250 we live in seriously wild times 560 00:49:08,250 --> 00:49:10,250 I see the compounding 561 00:49:10,250 --> 00:49:13,310 happening just in my stack 562 00:49:13,310 --> 00:49:16,310 just in the things that I am working on 563 00:49:16,310 --> 00:49:18,750 and it's hard to fathom 564 00:49:18,750 --> 00:49:20,990 how quickly that is going to fan out 565 00:49:20,990 --> 00:49:23,270 to the rest of the economy 566 00:49:23,270 --> 00:49:25,910 and to see how quickly 567 00:49:25,910 --> 00:49:28,370 the new models I'm using 568 00:49:28,370 --> 00:49:39,970 I'm using are able to functionally perform at a far greater depth and length of time. 569 00:49:40,590 --> 00:49:50,950 Basically depth in both ways, depth in time and depth in understanding or operational competence 570 00:49:50,950 --> 00:49:53,050 for the entire stack of the computer. 571 00:49:53,210 --> 00:49:57,590 Like I really think we're going to be able to take the application like pair drive and 572 00:49:57,590 --> 00:50:03,230 pair drop the things that we're building and like convert them into another language in like a few 573 00:50:03,230 --> 00:50:10,110 goes um and granted with the hyper core stack and some of the peer-to-peer stuff we're using 574 00:50:10,110 --> 00:50:15,110 uh i don't think we'll be changing the language a whole lot but there will be things that we can 575 00:50:15,110 --> 00:50:20,590 make far more efficient and builds that we can improve upon and it just it just comes to you 576 00:50:20,590 --> 00:50:28,990 know, hearing about stuff like that's the crazy thing about this. So when I find out about

a new 577 00:50:28,990 --> 00:50:34,590 thing, like I found out about Graphify and a few things the other day, like I can literally just 578 00:50:34,590 --> 00:50:41,310 take the GitHub repo of a Twitter post of something that just sounds crazy. Give it to my agent, 579 00:50:41,610 --> 00:50:45,790 get it to read through in the context. Buzz. Oh, my God. Buzz is the perfect example. So I was 580 00:50:45,790 --> 00:50:50,850 reading this article from early writers and they talked, they mentioned Buzz and I was like, I 581 00:50:50,850 --> 00:50:56,270 forgot about Buzz. And I immediately took it, grabbed the GitHub, gave it to my agents who 582 00:50:56,270 --> 00:51:03,230 were in the conversation of the chat of the tool we built. It's like Buzz like and got it to go 583 00:51:03,230 --> 00:51:10,710 through and make a comparison, a comparison audit of what Buzz doesn't have that my my chat app had 584 00:51:10,710 --> 00:51:13,290 and what my chat app did not have that Buzz had 585 00:51:13,290 --> 00:51:17,290 and how to basically consolidate or pull 586 00:51:17,290 --> 00:51:19,530 what was interesting or valuable from that. 587 00:51:19,710 --> 00:51:21,390 And we literally just made a couple improvements 588 00:51:21,390 --> 00:51:23,770 just because like a project happened 589 00:51:23,770 --> 00:51:25,570 and it was done within an hour. 590 00:51:26,150 --> 00:51:29,450 And all I know is the conceptual level of like, 591 00:51:29,590 --> 00:51:30,610 oh no, this is a great feature. 592 00:51:31,110 --> 00:51:33,230 That's a great feature that I could totally add into this 593 00:51:33,230 --> 00:51:34,450 and we don't even have to do anything. 594 00:51:34,750 --> 00:51:37,030 And then it pushed a new iOS build to my phone 595 00:51:37,030 --> 00:51:39,190 and I was immediately talking to him with the new feature. 596 00:51:39,190 --> 00:51:47,670 like holy crap and we're gonna have robots doing this this is gonna be this is slowly going to 597 00:51:47,670 --> 00:51:56,570 trickle down to interfaces that turn into hands and machines working in the real world the the uh 598 00:51:56,570 --> 00:52:10,663 where oh man what was the what was the thing let me see if i can find you real quick i gonna pause Ah I almost gave up I almost gave up I could not find the thing And not even AI could find it AI sucks I couldn even find this post 599 00:52:11,283 --> 00:52:14,923 Okay, so this guy who invented Amazon Prime. 600 00:52:15,183 --> 00:52:17,463 I don't know if he actually invented Amazon Prime. 601 00:52:18,223 --> 00:52:19,663 After six years in stealth, 602 00:52:19,843 --> 00:52:21,263 Atomic Machines is out. 603 00:52:21,263 --> 00:52:23,303 Our mission, on-demand, 604 00:52:23,523 --> 00:52:24,963 universal command of matter. 605 00:52:25,403 --> 00:52:27,783 First beachhead, the matter compiler. 606 00:52:27,783 --> 00:52:34,863 An AI-native manufacturing system that builds working micro-machines from code alone. 607 00:52:35,463 -->

00:52:37,283 No per-product tooling. 608 00:52:37,803 --> 00:52:39,303 No process development. 609 00:52:39,883 --> 00:52:41,923 Different code, different machine. 610 00:52:43,063 --> 00:52:44,363 Doesn't a 3D printer do that? 611 00:52:44,663 --> 00:52:45,003 No. 612 00:52:45,723 --> 00:52:50,723 No manufacturing technology to date produces a different machine from a different digital input. 613 00:52:51,203 --> 00:52:55,943 Imagine a car factory where after a couple of cars roll off the line, a laptop emerges. 614 00:52:55,943 --> 00:52:58,063 then a bicycle, then a refrigerator. 615 00:52:58,563 --> 00:53:01,963 A 3D printer gives you a different shape, not a different machine. 616 00:53:02,923 --> 00:53:05,843 AI native is overused, so here's what it means for us. 617 00:53:05,943 --> 00:53:08,403 The entire physical system lives inside the AI loop. 618 00:53:08,763 --> 00:53:12,903 Every manufacturing operation is followed by precision metrology? 619 00:53:14,163 --> 00:53:15,923 Metrology? I don't know that word. 620 00:53:16,083 --> 00:53:17,543 Precision metrology. 621 00:53:18,443 --> 00:53:19,103 I'll have to look that up. 622 00:53:19,103 --> 00:53:22,623 We digitize the physical result and a part only proceeds if it's in spec. 623 00:53:22,763 --> 00:53:25,563 Deterministic process control, not statistical. 624 00:53:25,943 --> 00:53:29,043 That closes the intent to result loop. 625 00:53:29,403 --> 00:53:32,963 The AI adapts to errors and runs its own hardware in the loop experiments. 626 00:53:33,083 --> 00:53:33,803 Oh, that's crazy. 627 00:53:34,583 --> 00:53:39,983 I don't even think I caught quite exactly how that played out the first time I skimmed through this. 628 00:53:39,983 --> 00:53:46,283 In generating training data continuously, our Gen AI uses it to produce the device design and matter compiler input to build it. 629 00:53:46,543 --> 00:53:49,023 At maturity, prompt to product manufacturing. 630 00:53:49,463 --> 00:53:53,843 We've aimed the matter compiler at micro machines, tiny machines with moving parts, features measured in microns. 631 00:53:53,843 --> 00:53:55,783 Think millimeter scale robots. 632 00:53:55,903 --> 00:53:56,863 The universe is a grid. 633 00:53:57,283 --> 00:53:58,983 Seven physical domains, two purposes. 634 00:53:59,423 --> 00:54:01,783 Deliver energy and matter or encode information. 635 00:54:01,983 --> 00:54:04,743 Semi-fab has mastered one cell. 636 00:54:05,063 --> 00:54:05,643 Six are empty. 637 00:54:06,083 --> 00:54:10,723 MAMES engineers have brilliantly coaxed a few devices out of the semi-tool set over decades. 638 00:54:10,843 --> 00:54:12,883 Accelerometers, gyros, micromirrors, blah, blah, blah, blah. 639 00:54:13,063 --> 00:54:14,623 That's what the matter compiler brings. 640 00:54:14,943 --> 00:54:16,043 First micromachine out. 641 00:54:16,183 --> 00:54:18,203 Here, Prime Switch PS150. 642 00:54:18,363 --> 00:54:19,923 A new class of power relay. 643 00:54:20,343 --> 00:54:21,863 200 micro-ohms. 644 00:54:21,863 --> 00:54:24,963 Yeah, yeah, yeah. 645 00:54:24,963 --> 00:54:27,803 200 micro ohms on resistance, 646 00:54:28,423 --> 00:54:31,343 150 amp continuous in a 9.5 millimeter 647 00:54:31,343 --> 00:54:33,363 by three millimeter hermetic package. 648 00:54:33,763 --> 00:54:36,383 Opens in 50 microseconds to 1500 volts 649 00:54:36,383 --> 00:54:37,743 of true galvanic isolation, 650 00:54:37,883 --> 00:54:39,483 a thousand X faster than a contractor, 651 00:54:40,083 --> 00:54:43,203 a contactor, zero holding power 652 00:54:43,203 --> 00:54:45,323 shipping to early access customers matter. 653 00:54:45,943 --> 00:54:47,343 Early access customers now. 654 00:54:47,543 --> 00:54:48,083 Why it matters. 655 00:54:48,243 --> 00:54:51,303 AI data centers are moving 800 volts DC 656 00:54:51,303 --> 00:54:56,563 where a fault delivers destructive energy in microseconds 657 00:54:56,563 --> 00:54:58,923 and a DC arc won't put itself out. 658 00:54:59,343 --> 00:55:02,083 Mechanical protection is milliseconds too slow. 659 00:55:02,623 --> 00:55:08,883 Solid state is fast but can't isolate and bleeds heat on every amp it carries. 660 00:55:09,303 --> 00:55:12,663 Prime switch is the device in between that nobody could build. 661 00:55:13,443 --> 00:55:20,823 So this thing has built a micromachine as one of its first examples 662 00:55:20,823 --> 00:55:24,363 of something that manages to, 663 00:55:24,483 --> 00:55:27,183 in a hybrid breaker with a solid state bypass, 664 00:55:27,823 --> 00:55:29,303 the silicon interrupts, 665 00:55:29,623 --> 00:55:31,543 the metal carries and isolates, 666 00:55:31,763 --> 00:55:33,403 the breaker never arcs. 667 00:55:33,643 --> 00:55:36,123 The same device does transfer switching, 668 00:55:36,563 --> 00:55:37,243 hot swapping, 669 00:55:37,243 --> 00:55:40,243 and generally economizes semiconductor power 670 00:55:40,243 --> 00:55:42,143 across the 800 volt DC data center. 671 00:55:42,623 --> 00:55:45,323 No semiconductor fab can process prime switches materials 672 00:55:45,323 --> 00:55:46,983 or assemble its moving parts. 673 00:55:47,503 --> 00:55:49,523 It exists because the matter compiler exists. 674 00:55:49,523 --> 00:55:57,443 Matter compiler name for Neil Stephenson's The Diamond Age, which Neil Stephenson is great if you don't read his stuff. 675 00:55:57,723 --> 00:56:00,403 $250 million race to date. See it. Blah, blah, blah. 676 00:56:00,403 --> 00:56:27,683 This, the loop, the huge loop to break down here or to close on this is the capacity to quickly and aggressively iterate on the manufacturing process in exactly the same way I am able to iterate on my debugging process in this application, right? 677 00:56:27,683 --> 00:56:36,463 so going straight back to to my example here is I have this little debug note and if I have an error 678 00:56:36,463 --> 00:56:41,523 I can in fact uh oh I didn't I didn't close it I want to see I'm going to see real quick I

want 679 00:56:41,523 --> 00:56:46,103 to see if this is actually done one second all right I'm actually fixing that problem and hopefully 680 00:56:46,103 --> 00:56:53,523 I'll actually have video in the background of the last few takes uh because my agent is working on 681 00:56:53,523 --> 00:56:57,523 it right now, but I got sick of waiting because I just wanted to finish this episode. 682 00:56:58,103 --> 00:57:04,283 Just interjecting that I went ahead and added a overdub feature where I can record my screen 683 00:57:04,283 --> 00:57:09,543 while listening to the clip that I just did so that I can do the stuff on my screen. 684 00:57:10,143 --> 00:57:31,677 And I just replaced the video that we lost And one of the things that I really wanted to bring up and talk about is when we look at the speed at which we iterate I have edited I have changed the application I am making this episode on three separate times before I finish recording the episode 685 00:57:31,677 --> 00:57:37,457 and I don't think this will ever really change outside of the fact like because I can just kind 686 00:57:37,457 --> 00:57:45,017 of add features like we are had already planned a overdub feature where I could go back and watch 687 00:57:45,017 --> 00:57:51,157 something in the timeline and then do my own screen recording after so I'm navigating the 688 00:57:51,157 --> 00:57:55,657 computer and I'm totally focused on navigating the computer and I'm listening to the stuff that I 689 00:57:55,657 --> 00:58:03,937 am saying in the episode and so that I can actually recover the the the scroll through 690 00:58:03,937 --> 00:58:08,397 the Twitter feed and stuff that I have because it was like take 49 there were like three takes that 691 00:58:08,397 --> 00:58:15,597 were got that got lost while the agent was editing the app but the point is is there's so much 692 00:58:15,597 --> 00:58:22,157 there's so much uncertainty in like what to actually invest in and what and counterparty 693 00:58:22,157 --> 00:58:28,497 risk in what will actually succeed versus fail and you don't know. But when your money is scarce, 694 00:58:29,137 --> 00:58:36,157 when your money can actually hold its value, it becomes the hurdle rate to beat. 695 00:58:37,297 --> 00:58:44,677 When you have, if your monetary value is increasing by 20% a year, then you don't want 696 00:58:44,677 --> 00:58:50,877 any debt going out at less than 20% because it means resources are going to be aggressively 697 00:58:50,877 --> 00:58:58,777 wasted. You want the scarcity of the money to set the standard. It's basically giving you the 698 00:58:58,777 --> 00:59:06,377 average rate of productivity increase. It's giving you the average rate of productive expansion 699 00:59:06,377 --> 00:59:14,397 across the economy. And you want debt to be reserved for those things that can clearly, 700 00:59:14,937 --> 00:59:20,037 that at least the people responsible for and who are taking on the risk of that investment, 701 00:59:20,037 --> 00:59:28,117 of that debt to be highly, highly confident that it will outpace the 20%, that it will outpace the 702 00:59:28,117 --> 00:59:33,397 hurdle rate because otherwise you're wasting resources. Otherwise, if you just did nothing 703 00:59:33,397 --> 00:59:38,877 and you let the people who were confident and who were willing to risk 20% a year interest 704 00:59:38,877 --> 00:59:44,297 on whatever endeavor that they're engaged in because they have far, far higher conviction 705 00:59:44,297 --> 00:59:45,897 that they're doing the right thing, 706 00:59:46,717 --> 00:59:49,257 you leave those resources for those people 707 00:59:49,257 --> 00:59:51,457 other than wasting them on something 708 00:59:51,457 --> 00:59:53,157 that's only going to get you 5%, 709 00:59:53,157 --> 00:59:56,077 which at a point where you're hitting a singularity 710 00:59:56,077 --> 00:59:57,317 is a 15% loss 711 00:59:57,317 --> 01:00:00,357 if you have a massive amount of productivity increase 712 01:00:00,357 --> 01:00:01,817 happening economy-wide. 713 01:00:02,317 --> 01:00:04,557 And the shift, like everything is going to be processed. 714 01:00:04,757 --> 01:00:06,877 I literally think we go from, 715 01:00:07,777 --> 01:00:12,077 my entire system has moved from 716 01:00:12,077 --> 01:00:19,317 basically something that you build and use continuously to a process that evolves every 717 01:00:19,317 --> 01:00:28,537 time I engage with it. Like I said, this app has changed three times and it's a full application 718 01:00:28,537 --> 01:00:35,557 built for my production flow. And obviously it's like chock full of bugs and there's some slop and 719 01:00:35,557 --> 01:00:39,957 there's technical debt. But that's one of the things that I do on a regular occurrence is I 720 01:00:39,957 --> 01:00:45,157 give it to my multiple agents and I tell them to go on an audit and clean up technical debt and 721 01:00:45,157 --> 01:00:50,197 universalize this thing. Like, why do we have, why do we build a grid system in one part of the 722 01:00:50,197 --> 01:00:53,677 sidebar and then a completely different one in a completely different part of the sidebar? 723 01:00:53,677 --> 01:00:57,677 We should have one grid system that we are applying to these two different locations and 724 01:00:57,677 --> 01:01:06,277 these two different, you know, inputs or like selection or group of media. And so like thinking 725 01:01:06,277 --> 01:01:15,217 and iterating and reacting to and judging the process is going to be the process itself. 726 01:01:15,937 --> 01:01:22,017 But what I love about this article and the reason I wanted to do this episode is just 727 01:01:22,017 --> 01:01:29,317 because it's so, it puts into perspective so much of what I have been stuck in and the 728 01:01:29,317 --> 01:01:35,377 reason why I haven't done any reads lately and so much of the stuff that we're building 729 01:01:35,377 --> 01:01:42,237 with the development team because I want

to, I'm, I'm done. I'm done with like iCloud and I'm sick 730 01:01:42,237 --> 01:01:48,137 of these platforms and I don't, we don't need them. We can build all our own solutions. And, 731 01:01:48,317 --> 01:01:53,057 you know, there is eventually, we'll have all people building their own solutions to everything, 732 01:01:53,197 --> 01:01:58,277 you know, all that stuff, but stuff will coalesce. There will be standards developed. 733 01:01:59,057 --> 01:02:05,177 And I think I specifically posted a tweet and a Noster note about this recently, 734 01:02:05,377 --> 01:02:09,997 that I went from like six months to a year ago, 735 01:02:09,997 --> 01:02:12,877 I was kind of looking at things and thinking like open source 736 01:02:12,877 --> 01:02:15,097 had a really big opportunity. 737 01:02:15,097 --> 01:02:18,157 That we could end up where a ton of stuff being used 738 01:02:18,157 --> 01:02:23,157 by consumers was open source and where like Max Hillebrand 739 01:02:24,337 --> 01:02:27,057 was on the round table recently and something that I loved, 740 01:02:27,057 --> 01:02:29,977 a comment that he had made. 741 01:02:29,982 --> 01:02:32,422 almost like a year and a half ago maybe now, 742 01:02:32,922 --> 01:02:39,222 is that the average number of users for any exact specific piece of software 743 01:02:39,222 --> 01:02:42,542 or implementation may very well end up being one, 744 01:02:43,122 --> 01:02:47,682 where software is simply unique to the person's environment 745 01:02:47,682 --> 01:02:49,102 or to the person's system. 746 01:02:49,802 --> 01:02:53,482 But I think that means still that we should be building things 747 01:02:53,482 --> 01:02:57,702 with that concept in mind, with that modularity in mind, 748 01:02:57,702 --> 01:03:02,382 so that it can be quickly and easily modified 749 01:03:02,382 --> 01:03:06,142 for a separate environment or a separate user. 750 01:03:06,322 --> 01:03:09,542 Like we should be thinking of software as moldable things. 751 01:03:10,682 --> 01:03:14,602 And there's just so... 752 01:03:14,602 --> 01:03:16,842 The unlock is just going to be wild. 753 01:03:18,142 --> 01:03:22,542 It's going to be absolutely like breathtaking. 754 01:03:23,642 --> 01:03:25,562 The speed that it is already moving, 755 01:03:25,702 --> 01:03:27,582 if you're trying to stay up on the edge of it, 756 01:03:27,702 --> 01:03:31,602 and it'll also be really important to take a step back 757 01:03:31,602 --> 01:03:35,262 and take a breath every once in a while 758 01:03:35,262 --> 01:03:39,822 because I literally just got completely overwhelmed the other day. 759 01:03:39,942 --> 01:03:41,202 Actually, it was at the end of last week, 760 01:03:41,342 --> 01:03:44,762 and I completely shifted my entire focus 761 01:03:44,762 --> 01:03:46,902 and so much of what I was working on this week 762 01:03:46,902 --> 01:03:51,002 because of kind of the wall that I ran into at the end of last week 763 01:03:51,002 --> 01:03:55,202 where I

literally spent five days vibe coding on everything, 764 01:03:55,202 --> 01:03:58,142 and I felt like I got nothing to the finish line, 765 01:03:58,262 --> 01:03:59,562 but I got so much. 766 01:04:00,522 --> 01:04:05,362 I spent today working basically with all of my tools 767 01:04:05,362 --> 01:04:08,902 in my production set, 768 01:04:09,502 --> 01:04:11,802 my entire flow that I've built 769 01:04:11,802 --> 01:04:14,522 and using my apps themselves 770 01:04:14,522 --> 01:04:16,322 and I've built my debugging process 771 01:04:16,322 --> 01:04:20,202 and my coordination process cleanly enough 772 01:04:20,202 --> 01:04:23,742 that it iterates on itself while I'm working. 773 01:04:25,202 --> 01:04:30,762 And I have simplified the crap out of that. 774 01:04:30,902 --> 01:04:45,439 And it is going to be we live in crazy times man We live in crazy times Like to be on the edge I love the comparison of light 775 01:04:46,279 --> 01:04:52,159 And what's crazy is that comparison, let me bring this back up. 776 01:04:52,579 --> 01:04:56,699 This is going to happen way faster. 777 01:04:57,599 --> 01:05:01,559 So, 1830, it was three hours of labor. 778 01:05:01,559 --> 01:05:05,139 three hours of labor for an hour of light. 779 01:05:05,279 --> 01:05:09,779 It is insane to consider technological progress 780 01:05:09,779 --> 01:05:12,239 that happened so quickly that, 781 01:05:12,779 --> 01:05:14,399 and I don't think it's a coincidence too, 782 01:05:14,579 --> 01:05:16,939 that like literacy rates were changing dramatically 783 01:05:16,939 --> 01:05:18,039 during these types of things, 784 01:05:18,139 --> 01:05:21,699 but that to read a story at night 785 01:05:21,699 --> 01:05:24,739 was an incredible luxury. 786 01:05:25,299 --> 01:05:28,419 Like you had to take a day's worth of work 787 01:05:28,419 --> 01:05:35,279 for the opportunity to sit down and read a book at night and have a little bit of light. 788 01:05:36,199 --> 01:05:39,799 And in 1900, 70 years later, it was 13 minutes. 789 01:05:40,259 --> 01:05:45,779 And then today, after the electrification of everything, which, you know, was early 1900s, 790 01:05:45,779 --> 01:05:58,239 today is 0.07 seconds, seven hundredths of a second to get an hour of light. 791 01:05:58,419 --> 01:06:04,419 this is going to happen to a unit of thought, 792 01:06:05,259 --> 01:06:12,819 to a unit of intelligent work and iteration. 793 01:06:13,599 --> 01:06:15,999 That is what's crazy about this. 794 01:06:15,999 --> 01:06:21,819 We are literally going from pure energy to output, 795 01:06:22,119 --> 01:06:25,759 and we are on one of the most aggressive iteration 796 01:06:25,759 --> 01:06:31,639 and improvement systems or structures, 797 01:06:31,939 --> 01:06:37,399 constructs of technological progress 798 01:06:37,399 --> 01:06:40,299 where we are closing that gap 799 01:06:40,299 --> 01:06:54,097 in just an unbelievable way straight from energy to output I don know how you could want to live at

a different time 800 01:06:54,297 --> 01:06:56,037 Like, this is the craziest time in history. 801 01:06:57,537 --> 01:06:58,897 Like, this is so wild. 802 01:06:58,897 --> 01:07:05,157 You've got to understand, none of our political systems work in this environment. 803 01:07:06,337 --> 01:07:10,457 Like, the monetary system, the debt structure, none of this is going to hold up. 804 01:07:10,457 --> 01:07:19,737 this is such a fundamental shift to the productivity and process like things are 805 01:07:19,737 --> 01:07:25,217 literally going to change there are going to be so many borders rewritten or redrawn so many 806 01:07:25,217 --> 01:07:34,137 different systems altered that trying to define or understand what the world might look like in 807 01:07:34,137 --> 01:07:41,197 20 to 30 years, I think just becomes impossible to imagine. And the thing is, is that this took 808 01:07:41,197 --> 01:07:53,737 170 years, 180, 196 years. And we could very likely see the same thing occur when it comes 809 01:07:53,737 --> 01:07:59,017 to the idea of a unit of thought or a unit of intelligent, productive work toward a goal. 810 01:07:59,017 --> 01:08:03,357 we could see this same thing happen in a hundredth of the time 811 01:08:03,357 --> 01:08:08,417 in maybe not a hundredth maybe a fiftieth right like 812 01:08:08,417 --> 01:08:12,297 maybe 10 years 10 years five years too small 813 01:08:12,297 --> 01:08:14,977 but 10 years 20 years 814 01:08:14,977 --> 01:08:22,877 like this like I don't even how do you account for this 815 01:08:22,877 --> 01:08:27,997 this is the most insane deflationary mechanism 816 01:08:27,997 --> 01:08:29,437 ever 817 01:08:29,437 --> 01:08:31,137 ever 818 01:08:31,137 --> 01:08:33,777 and all of those scarce things 819 01:08:33,777 --> 01:08:36,057 the notion of 820 01:08:36,057 --> 01:08:37,517 like we have 821 01:08:37,517 --> 01:08:40,017 basically 822 01:08:40,017 --> 01:08:41,757 the scarce side has been 823 01:08:41,757 --> 01:08:42,457 untouched 824 01:08:42,457 --> 01:08:45,917 have outrun wage increases 825 01:08:45,917 --> 01:08:47,957 and inflation has just 826 01:08:47,957 --> 01:08:49,897 gathered into all of these things 827 01:08:49,897 --> 01:08:51,397 and this 828 01:08:51,397 --> 01:09:06,474 all the technology that is enabling this is shifting over here aggressively aggressively and it going to move so so fast Like I just I don even know what to say about it And I got to go 829 01:09:06,534 --> 01:09:11,414 I got to go hang out with my kid and get a little bit of sobriety back. Um, cause we live in wild 830 01:09:11,414 --> 01:09:19,334 times. Anyway, I just want to shout out this great article, crazy, crazy, crazy world we live in. 831 01:09:19,334 --> 01:09:22,414 And I hope you guys enjoy the episode. 832 01:09:23,014 --> 01:09:26,974 I'm very curious to hear what you think about a live read 833 01:09:26,974 --> 01:09:30,614 and the fact that I'm doing a video read now. 834 01:09:31,754 --> 01:09:34,794 It's fun to me. 835 01:09:34,974 --> 01:09:36,874 Like I have very much enjoyed this. 836 01:09:37,894 --> 01:09:41,794 And, you know, curious if you guys get anything out of it 837 01:09:41,794 --> 01:09:46,434 because I am iterating on my process and iterating my content a lot. 838 01:09:46,434 --> 01:09:49,494 and there are so many tools to tap into now 839 01:09:49,494 --> 01:09:51,014 and I got so much to share. 840 01:09:51,074 --> 01:09:53,974 I'm going to be doing videos about tools very, very soon 841 01:09:53,974 --> 01:09:56,794 because they are just moving a mile a minute 842 01:09:56,794 --> 01:09:59,554 and it is so cool to feel like I have my own platform 843 01:09:59,554 --> 01:10:04,174 to connect and network all my stuff together with. 844 01:10:04,174 --> 01:10:06,574 So I will catch you guys on the next episode. 845 01:10:06,714 --> 01:10:10,234 Shout out to Bitbox and Shift Crypto guys 846 01:10:10,234 --> 01:10:12,634 for keeping my Bitcoin safe 847 01:10:12,634 --> 01:10:14,254 and making a great hardware wallet, 848 01:10:14,254 --> 01:10:18,094 fully open source, red teaming like a champ, 849 01:10:18,414 --> 01:10:20,754 and being really good about security updates 850 01:10:20,754 --> 01:10:21,574 and all those things. 851 01:10:21,914 --> 01:10:23,814 So stay tuned, grab yourself one. 852 01:10:23,874 --> 01:10:26,634 You got a discount code in the show notes. 853 01:10:27,294 --> 01:10:29,494 And that will do it. 854 01:10:29,934 --> 01:10:31,194 I'll get you on the next episode. 855 01:10:31,314 --> 01:10:35,414 Until then, I am Guy Swan, and that's my two sets. 856 01:10:44,254 --> 01:11:06,674 Outro Music