Transcrição completa de ROLLUP: Bitcoin’s Fork Died in 2 Blocks | Saylor Sells Again | Robinhood Chain | Fidelity Staking

and Near.com. 37 00:02:02.719 --> 00:02:07.901 Near.com is kind of like where Near is dogfooding a lot of their products. 38 00:02:07.921 --> 00:02:11.143 It's like a first-party product that uses a lot of the Near infrastructure. 39 00:02:12.143 --> 00:02:18.449 Just launched on near.com is confidential yield with some vault technology powered by near intense. 40 00:02:18.469 --> 00:02:25.415 So you can confidentially deposit into a vault and get yield confidentially through near.com. 41 00:02:25.435 --> 00:02:25.835 You can do it. 42 00:02:26.196 --> 00:02:28.978 You can do it elsewhere in near because it's all powered by near intense. 43 00:02:29.018 --> 00:02:30.760 It's kind of like weaving together everything cross chain. 44 00:02:31.200 --> 00:02:36.023 but they're integrating confidential intents plus vaults brought by Taylor Finance. 45 00:02:36.383 --> 00:02:38.484 So you can get yield confidentially. 46 00:02:38.804 --> 00:02:44.287 I'm saying the word confidentially a lot because like I'm trying to like, what's the word? 47 00:02:44.687 --> 00:02:49.189 Manifest privacy in the rest of the crypto ecosystem. 48 00:02:49.229 --> 00:02:57.494 Like in the world of like meme coins and sailor posting AI hype videos, like I'm trying to manifest some substance here and like comes in the form of privacy. 49 00:02:57.514 --> 00:02:57.854 And so... 50 00:02:58.494 --> 00:03:01.095 Pretty cool that near.com has this built for anyone. 51 00:03:01.115 --> 00:03:16.779 I don't know if you ever use near.com, Ryan, but it's actually like they're integrating like all their first party features one by one by one is it's coming like becoming one of the most powerful wallet front ends because they keep on integrating all the features of crypto via near intense, but confidentially, it's kind of cool. 52 00:03:17.208 --> 00:03:18.028 Yeah, I keep saying this. 53 00:03:18.068 --> 00:03:21.269 One of the shippiest teams in crypto, and they keep shipping. 54 00:03:21.849 --> 00:03:24.990 David, let's start markets off with the CPI numbers. 55 00:03:25.290 --> 00:03:29.311 So consumer price index just came in at 3.4%. 56 00:03:29.371 --> 00:03:34.533 People were wondering whether we would be hot on inflation, and... 57 00:03:34.773 --> 00:03:35.394 It wasn't hot. 58 00:03:35.494 --> 00:03:38.117 It was about at analyst expectations. 59 00:03:38.617 --> 00:03:43.642 So just up 0.1% versus last month, June. 60 00:03:44.023 --> 00:03:48.447 This must be because oil prices are down a little bit, did not factor into that. 61 00:03:48.507 --> 00:03:53.672 But CPI pretty much flat and right along expectations. 62 00:03:53.973 --> 00:03:55.935 I think the S&P and the NASDAQ were like, 63 00:03:56.435 --> 00:03:59.739 up slightly on that news and certainly not down. 64 00:04:00.219 --> 00:04:03.763 But let's talk, take a look at maybe the prices around the markets. 65 00:04:03.963 --> 00:04:04.864 What about Bitcoin? 66 00:04:04.944 --> 00:04:06.466 What's the reaction on the week to Bitcoin? 67 00:04:07.570 --> 00:04:11.111 The notable thing about Bitcoin, it's been pretty flat and it's continued to be flat. 68 00:04:11.191 --> 00:04:14.352 The notable thing about Bitcoin is it fell below the 200 week moving average. 69 00:04:14.432 --> 00:04:18.173 And we were just marginally above the 200 week moving average. 70 00:04:18.253 --> 00:04:20.733 We were hovering around like 64 to 65,000. 71 00:04:21.053 --> 00:04:25.114 And we fell about two and a half percent on the week down to 63,300. 72 00:04:27.535 --> 00:04:30.057 The 200-week moving average, Ryan, is at $64,000. 73 00:04:30.277 --> 00:04:32.619 And so we are right below it. 74 00:04:32.759 --> 00:04:34.761 Even though it's like kind of the same price it's always been at. 75 00:04:34.801 --> 00:04:37.943 But the 200-week moving average has been creeping upwards. 76 00:04:38.324 --> 00:04:49.192 When we had that low, that capitulation dump, where Bitcoin went from $75,000 all the way down to $59,000, at that time, the moving average, the 200-week moving average, was $61,500. 77 00:04:49.212 --> 00:04:49.813 Now it's $63,000. 78 00:04:49.853 --> 00:04:50.594 So it's creeping upwards. 79 00:04:53.716 --> 00:04:54.937 And we're kind of writing it. 80 00:04:55.217 --> 00:04:57.238 We're writing the 200-week moving average up. 81 00:04:58.119 --> 00:05:05.163 And what's notable on top of that is Saylor dumped another clip of Bitcoin into the support, into Bitcoin support. 82 00:05:05.723 --> 00:05:15.129 And so despite Saylor, the Michael Saylor, selling at the 200-week moving average, Bitcoin is kind of holding the 200-week. 83 00:05:15.149 --> 00:05:21.773 So it's a little bit notable that the biggest buyer is selling into the 200-week moving average, and we're seemingly like not dead. 84 00:05:21.873 --> 00:05:22.113 So... 85 00:05:22.819 --> 00:05:24.079 That's my analysis of the week. 86 00:05:24.519 --> 00:05:25.280 Still under it. 87 00:05:25.580 --> 00:05:27.980 I guess like it isn't just the algorithm. 88 00:05:28.000 --> 00:05:31.721 You just buy Bitcoin under the 200 week moving average and like you're doing OK. 89 00:05:31.961 --> 00:05:33.221 I mean, it hasn't stayed there. 90 00:05:33.241 --> 00:05:36.622 We are a fingernail under the 200 week moving average. 91 00:05:36.922 --> 00:05:39.243 So I don't know if you're like a deep value buyer. 92 00:05:39.283 --> 00:05:40.483 This is not what you are looking at. 93 00:05:40.523 --> 00:05:45.324 You're looking at you're trying to get like five to 10 percent plus below the 200 week moving average. 94 00:05:45.404 --> 00:05:49.865 And we have only been under that like very briefly this cycle and not not very deep. 95 00:05:50.485 --> 00:05:53.366 So deep value may want to wait for that. 96 00:05:53.446 --> 00:05:57.027 But fair value, I mean, under the 200- We are in fair value. 97 00:05:57.087 --> 00:05:58.387 We have been in fair value. 98 00:05:59.227 --> 00:06:00.508 Yeah. 99 00:06:00.928 -->

00:06:09.130 The other price chart to look at, I think, that's been interesting and somewhat surprising, I think, for a lot of people who came out of nowhere, is gold is back up. 100 00:06:09.730 --> 00:06:16.135 So gold has been up 14% since July 17th, David. 101 00:06:16.155 --> 00:06:20.318 So gold futures now at 4,500. 102 00:06:20.338 --> 00:06:22.719 They cleared that for the first time since June 5th. 103 00:06:23.380 --> 00:06:26.642 Gold, of course, earlier this year had been a massive story. 104 00:06:26.662 --> 00:06:28.944 I think what we peaked in like January, February. 105 00:06:28.984 --> 00:06:30.265 Remember silver went on a tear? 106 00:06:30.285 --> 00:06:30.725 Yeah, definitely. 107 00:06:31.306 --> 00:06:47.968 end of January it peaked at 55,000 to 56,000 did we go to 56,000 an ounce 56 the pico the pico top yeah okay we were there briefly but we did wow yeah seeing the charge we did hit that and we went as low as what 3,800 an ounce something like this 108 00:06:48.529 --> 00:06:50.851 Yeah, it's just below $4,000 an ounce. 109 00:06:50.911 --> 00:06:57.916 And like notably, it started, but gold started the January 2024 at $2,000 an ounce. 110 00:06:57.936 --> 00:06:59.557 It started January 2025 at $2,600 an ounce. 111 00:06:59.597 --> 00:07:03.400 And then it just, you know, crescendoed for 14 months from $2,800 all the way up to $5,600. 112 00:07:03.420 --> 00:07:04.441 And this is gold. 113 00:07:04.461 --> 00:07:04.961 This is gold. 114 00:07:04.981 --> 00:07:06.162 This is number one asset in the world. 115 00:07:15.230 --> 00:07:20.293 Yeah, like a $20 trillion asset that became like a $30 trillion plus dollar asset. 116 00:07:20.453 --> 00:07:22.654 Absolutely monster move in 2025. 117 00:07:22.674 --> 00:07:23.915 So the question is, is it back? 118 00:07:24.035 --> 00:07:26.797 I mean, we're up 14, 15% right now. 119 00:07:26.857 --> 00:07:28.758 Is this the debasement trade? 120 00:07:29.118 --> 00:07:31.319 There are a few answers to that that I've seen that are good. 121 00:07:31.359 --> 00:07:34.461 I think the best answer probably comes from Michael Howell's work. 122 00:07:34.581 --> 00:07:36.262 He follows global liquidity. 123 00:07:36.662 --> 00:07:38.704 As you know, we talk about him often. 124 00:07:38.724 --> 00:07:40.485 He's been on the Bankless podcast before. 125 00:07:41.425 --> 00:07:44.946 And he just points to the PBOC, People's Bank of China. 126 00:07:45.346 --> 00:07:49.126 They are back in the market injecting liquidity. 127 00:07:49.506 --> 00:07:54.587 They have their own debasement thing going on with the yuan. 128 00:07:55.327 --> 00:08:03.649 And the proceeds from that liquidity, the liquidity that the PBOC injects, Michael Howell argues, that goes into the price of gold. 129 00:08:04.109 --> 00:08:10.230 They went on pause in terms of injecting liquidity in the market sometime February, March-ish. 130 00:08:10.970 --> 00:08:17.954 And you also saw gold price start to go down because

you lost that large marginal buyer. 131 00:08:18.494 --> 00:08:21.055 He's unclear on why they went on pause for so long. 132 00:08:21.135 --> 00:08:25.178 Maybe it's something to do with Iran, war, oil demand. 133 00:08:25.218 --> 00:08:27.579 They just didn't want to put too much liquidity in the market. 134 00:08:27.919 --> 00:08:29.640 But it seems like the PBOC is back now. 135 00:08:30.060 --> 00:08:31.502 with their own debasement trade. 136 00:08:31.922 --> 00:08:41.173 And so he forecasts gold could have bottomed and we could continue to rise from here with the PBOC throwing off global liquidity. 137 00:08:41.473 --> 00:08:43.296 I think that's probably the best story I've heard around this. 138 00:08:43.995 --> 00:08:54.002 Is this a PBOC, like, minting money to buy gold or minting money to inject liquidity and then, you know, three, four, five dominoes happen and then there's a bunch of gold buyers at the end of that? 139 00:08:54.022 --> 00:08:55.043 I think it's kind of both. 140 00:08:55.363 --> 00:08:56.104 It's a little bit of both. 141 00:08:57.405 --> 00:09:05.931 Bank of China, China is purchasing gold and also liquidity kind of sloshes around and finds its way into gold primarily in China market. 142 00:09:06.271 --> 00:09:12.276 Michael Howell argues this is because, like, crypto is banned, Bitcoin is banned, there's a lot of capital controls 143 00:09:12.936 --> 00:09:16.799 Property has burnt so many Chinese citizens over the years. 144 00:09:16.859 --> 00:09:18.641 They had been investing in Chinese real estate. 145 00:09:19.041 --> 00:09:20.362 That's no longer an asset class. 146 00:09:20.662 --> 00:09:23.324 So their store of value asset really is gold. 147 00:09:23.384 --> 00:09:29.189 And that's why gold number go up when China debasement starts to happen. 148 00:09:29.690 --> 00:09:32.392 So- You think this is taking some oxygen out of Bitcoin? 149 00:09:33.246 --> 00:09:37.750 No, I think it's actually, all right, so like, I don't think so. 150 00:09:38.030 --> 00:09:42.794 I think what's happening is it's actually giving some dry tinder for Bitcoin later. 151 00:09:42.814 --> 00:09:46.177 This is a really interesting chart from Michael Nado. 152 00:09:46.197 --> 00:09:47.438 Sounds like Cople. 153 00:09:48.058 --> 00:09:48.959 Sounds like Cople. 154 00:09:49.359 --> 00:09:50.881 No, like, I mean, look at this. 155 00:09:51.021 --> 00:09:52.523 You tell me if this is compelling. 156 00:09:52.543 --> 00:09:54.945 So this is a Bitcoin gold ratio. 157 00:09:54.965 --> 00:09:57.388 And you could see this is again the cycles. 158 00:09:57.428 --> 00:10:02.193 You know, I don't know why anyone in crypto disbelieves the cycles these days because it's in every chart I've ever seen. 159 00:10:02.213 --> 00:10:03.534 Here's another chart of the cycles. 160 00:10:04.135 --> 00:10:13.958 So you see the Bitcoin gold ratio in the 2018 bear market, we had an 82% decline in the 2022 bear market, a 75% decline. 161 00:10:13.978 -->

00:10:21.440 If you look at this chart, it seems like we may have bottomed on the Bitcoin gold ratio versus gold. 162 00:10:21.500 --> 00:10:21.740 Right. 163 00:10:21.760 --> 00:10:24.981 So Bitcoin versus gold at about a 69% decline. 164 00:10:26.861 --> 00:10:27.181 Okay. 165 00:10:27.621 --> 00:10:28.662 And we're off the bottoms. 166 00:10:28.922 --> 00:10:29.942 Yeah, it is nice. 167 00:10:30.323 --> 00:10:31.923 We're off the bottoms right now. 168 00:10:32.784 --> 00:10:42.167 And, you know, this means if gold price go up and Bitcoin can follow it and possibly will follow it, of course, if this ratio is bottomed. 169 00:10:42.267 --> 00:10:45.349 So I think maybe it's Coke, but. 170 00:10:46.129 --> 00:10:47.930 Look, Bitcoin is a scarce asset. 171 00:10:47.970 --> 00:10:49.110 Gold is a scarce asset. 172 00:10:49.130 --> 00:10:50.851 They're both store value assets. 173 00:10:51.271 --> 00:10:55.432 The reason gold is getting a pump right now is because it's PBOC liquidity. 174 00:10:55.792 --> 00:11:06.996 If we start to get Fed liquidity on the U.S. side, the rest of the world side, Michael Howell, again, argues that that's what really props up and pumps the price of crypto assets, including Bitcoin. 175 00:11:08.250 --> 00:11:20.314 Buying Bitcoin right now feels a little bit early in the sense that we still have like the doldrums of boredom to get through, like the flat part of the bear market to get through. 176 00:11:21.435 --> 00:11:28.837 But like I think it's one of those things where like you'll look back on it and you'll be very, very rewarded at these very, very good prices and you're going to be glad that you bought. 177 00:11:28.877 --> 00:11:36.000 You just have to kind of work through a bunch of bullish things happening that you would think are catalysts for Bitcoin. 178 00:11:36.700 --> 00:11:40.683 And then they don't show up in the Bitcoin price and you're going to get frustrated because you're buying it early. 179 00:11:42.045 --> 00:11:43.626 But ultimately, it's all going to play out. 180 00:11:43.686 --> 00:11:44.607 But this is how it works. 181 00:11:44.767 --> 00:11:48.390 It's like, why would you buy Bitcoin when Bitcoin is exciting? 182 00:11:48.470 --> 00:11:50.552 That's like the exact wrong time to buy Bitcoin. 183 00:11:50.872 --> 00:11:53.434 The time to buy is when it's back to boring mode again. 184 00:11:53.454 --> 00:11:54.095 And we're definitely boring. 185 00:11:54.115 --> 00:11:55.396 It does feel quite boring, however. 186 00:11:55.416 --> 00:11:59.940 It's like everyone's just watching Michael Saylor's tweets about like how much Bitcoin he sold. 187 00:12:00.440 --> 00:12:15.305 Well, speaking of which, so you mentioned earlier, Michael Saylor did sell some Bitcoin this week and he positioned himself for his reserve and SDRC preferred shares in a little bit of a healthier cash position. 188 00:12:15.345 --> 00:12:16.245 So what happened on the week? 189 00:12:18.647 --> 00:12:24.934 1,691 Bitcoin were sold over the last week, increasing the USD reserve by 650 million. 190 00:12:25.775 --> 00:12:34.163 So now, in sum, strategy has 2.7 years of yield in dollars, not Bitcoin, in dollar yield. 191 00:12:34.744 --> 00:12:39.948 This is the third week in a row that Saylor has sold like a meaningful amount of Bitcoin. 192 00:12:40.368 --> 00:12:48.114 And I do think that this is kind of why we dipped under the 200 week moving average and we kind of like dipped to this week, even though we only did like a little bit. 193 00:12:48.134 --> 00:12:50.415 Like I said, fingernails below the 200 week moving average. 194 00:12:50.836 --> 00:12:55.759 I think people are now kind of wondering, myself included, it's like, oh, OK, third week in a row. 195 00:12:55.999 --> 00:12:57.701 Like, OK, all right. 196 00:12:57.781 --> 00:13:00.463 Like how many weeks in a row? 197 00:13:00.723 --> 00:13:01.743 You're going to stop. 198 00:13:01.763 --> 00:13:03.665 You're going to stop at some point, right? 199 00:13:04.065 --> 00:13:17.034 Because when he sold the 32 Bitcoin and Bitcoin fell by like $75,000 down to $65,000, $62,000, we were like, we're all in agreement that that was the market front running all of these sales by Saylor. 200 00:13:17.855 --> 00:13:25.060 But like, did the market guess the total amount of Bitcoin to be sold by Saylor at these current levels correctly? 201 00:13:25.220 --> 00:13:27.682 Or is Saylor going to surprise us by saying? 202 00:13:28.402 --> 00:13:32.846 Week after week, clipping away another 1,700 Bitcoin week after week. 203 00:13:33.227 --> 00:13:36.910 It seems like it's not that much sell pressure to be able to be absorbed. 204 00:13:37.090 --> 00:13:43.716 And notably, Ryan, both the Bitcoin and the Ether ETFs are net buyers since June. 205 00:13:44.317 --> 00:13:47.880 So June and July and so far in August, the ETFs are net buyers. 206 00:13:48.280 --> 00:13:54.747 And so, like, you know, you can kind of count it like sailors was handing his Bitcoin to BlackRock and people are buying it up over there. 207 00:13:56.068 --> 00:14:02.055 But like, I don't know, like, is he like, just going to be selling Bitcoin for the rest of the year? 208 00:14:02.115 --> 00:14:05.038 Because that's going to be really hard as a narrative to like overcome. 209 00:14:05.444 --> 00:14:10.027 I mean, it's really clear he wanted to get STRC back into a healthy territory and now it's trading above 95. 210 00:14:10.167 --> 00:14:12.089 So it's as close as it's been in a while. 211 00:14:12.109 --> 00:14:14.130 Yeah, it is above $95. 212 00:14:14.150 --> 00:14:14.810 Yeah, to 100. 213 00:14:15.071 --> 00:14:17.973 So that seems to have been a priority, judging by what he did. 214 00:14:18.473 --> 00:14:28.360 You kind of wonder at this point in the market, I mean, does have this great, I guess, great from one perspective, credit structure now in place with STRC, but also like... 215 00:14:29.180 --> 00:14:33.686 I mean, he's taking his

eye off the ball of just buying Bitcoin cheap with cash, right? 216 00:14:33.706 --> 00:14:37.010 It's like his average cost basis is something like 75K. 217 00:14:37.550 --> 00:14:40.434 Like he is under his average cost basis. 218 00:14:40.474 --> 00:14:41.555 He's selling for a loss. 219 00:14:41.835 --> 00:14:43.858 It's like, would it have just been better? 220 00:14:43.958 --> 00:14:47.122 I mean, and he's starting to sell Bitcoin at a loss from his cost basis. 221 00:14:47.142 --> 00:14:47.302 Yeah. 222 00:14:47.422 --> 00:14:58.852 Would it have just been better for him not to do the credit instrument and get tied up there so he could continue to accumulate, at least not sell Bitcoin at these fair value depressed prices? 223 00:14:58.872 --> 00:14:59.673 I don't know. 224 00:14:59.813 --> 00:15:00.754 I mean, time will tell. 225 00:15:02.035 --> 00:15:03.136 We'll have to see what he does. 226 00:15:03.256 --> 00:15:10.323 But it's clearly his priority has been on making sure that STRC is still a good credit vehicle for him moving forward. 227 00:15:11.172 --> 00:15:17.100 Are you in the camp that Sailor needs to sell Bitcoin and get out of the way so Bitcoin can appreciate? 228 00:15:18.248 --> 00:15:32.012 Um, no, I think I think I'm still in the camp of what we talked about last week, which is sort of he was a main character because we were worried about a unorderly unwind from him. 229 00:15:32.392 --> 00:15:35.913 And now that that concern is on the back burner, he's kind of a back burner. 230 00:15:35.953 --> 00:15:41.315 And I don't think Saylor is the main factor suppressing Bitcoin prices or doing anything. 231 00:15:41.335 --> 00:15:41.835 What do you think? 232 00:15:44.007 --> 00:15:47.370 Um, I do kind of wonder, like markets are very, very intelligent. 233 00:15:47.450 --> 00:15:59.658 And so I do kind of wonder that like it's sailor keeping the price down and he still has to kind of puke up a bunch of Bitcoin for it to like kind of like awaken, reawaken, burn from the ashes. 234 00:15:59.979 --> 00:16:00.259 Yeah. 235 00:16:00.639 --> 00:16:06.383 And like the, the slow deflation is just him staying in the way for too long. 236 00:16:07.224 --> 00:16:07.384 Um. 237 00:16:09.079 --> 00:16:13.984 But then it's like, okay, can he wait this thing out until something like fundamentally bullish comes in? 238 00:16:14.885 --> 00:16:23.492 But like still to this day, I am of the belief that like the sailor needs to, it would be easier and better for everyone if he just puked up a bunch of Bitcoin, but he's not going to be doing that. 239 00:16:23.512 --> 00:16:24.453 Yeah, he's not puking it out. 240 00:16:24.493 --> 00:16:26.315 It's not a violent vomiting. 241 00:16:26.395 --> 00:16:31.339 It's more like a kind of a burp, you know, like a steady burp of Bitcoin coming off the balance sheet. 242 00:16:31.379 --> 00:16:31.519 Yeah. 243 00:16:32.668 --> 00:16:44.181 At the same time, could the Ethereum ecosystem ask for a better buyer, alternative to Michael Saylor than Tom Lee? 244 00:16:44.502 --> 00:16:48.766 This guy has not sold any ETH and he has purchased 245 00:16:49.387 --> 00:16:54.871 every single week since like this time last year, like even before that. 246 00:16:54.971 --> 00:17:00.315 I get this notification, like looks on Shane and my telegram saying, Hey, Tom Lee, here's a picture of Tom Lee. 247 00:17:00.335 --> 00:17:02.116 This man just bought $25 million of ETH. 248 00:17:02.136 --> 00:17:02.816 I get it every week. 249 00:17:03.137 --> 00:17:03.757 That's what he did. 250 00:17:03.797 --> 00:17:10.482 He just bought another $25 million of ETH last week, has not sold any, does not have this credit instrument, of course. 251 00:17:10.542 --> 00:17:15.766 So as a, a cleaner, more simple balance sheet and, um, 252 00:17:16.486 --> 00:17:22.068 Man, it's just like a total blessing for Ethereum and ETH holders, I think. 253 00:17:22.088 --> 00:17:23.909 I mean, everyone's got to be very thankful. 254 00:17:24.249 --> 00:17:26.590 Where would ETH price be without Tom Lee right now? 255 00:17:26.750 --> 00:17:28.511 I don't want to imagine. 256 00:17:28.631 --> 00:17:29.612 I do not want to know. 257 00:17:31.557 --> 00:17:32.077 Oh my God. 258 00:17:32.117 --> 00:17:33.378 I want to know. 259 00:17:33.898 --> 00:17:36.460 He was at 4.8% last time we checked in. 260 00:17:36.580 --> 00:17:38.160 I don't know how far 13,000 ETH. 261 00:17:38.441 --> 00:17:40.401 13,000 ETH doesn't really move the dial on that. 262 00:17:40.882 --> 00:17:41.542 Yeah, probably not. 263 00:17:41.762 --> 00:17:42.443 Yeah, 13,000. 264 00:17:42.463 --> 00:17:42.703 Yeah. 265 00:17:42.743 --> 00:17:45.224 So I think he's still 4.8 plus now. 266 00:17:45.844 --> 00:17:46.445 Not quite at 5%. 267 00:17:48.343 --> 00:17:55.150 Well, so the question, of course, the market section to conclude with is like, you know, Michael Nato says we're 85% of the way done. 268 00:17:55.190 --> 00:17:56.671 We've got two more months. 269 00:17:56.731 --> 00:17:58.433 That'll get us to 12 months. 270 00:17:58.473 --> 00:18:00.415 That's how long bear cycles last. 271 00:18:00.455 --> 00:18:03.518 We should see a bottom sometime in the next two months. 272 00:18:03.938 --> 00:18:05.460 David, so that means we're almost done here. 273 00:18:05.660 --> 00:18:11.482 OK, and the time based capitulation story, according to the cycles theory of everything. 274 00:18:12.042 --> 00:18:18.424 The question there, if you believe in that, is will we see another low, a lower low for Bitcoin? 275 00:18:18.684 --> 00:18:19.884 Will we get to 55K? 276 00:18:19.924 --> 00:18:21.205 Will we get under that? 277 00:18:21.265 --> 00:18:22.885 Will we get into the low 50s? 278 00:18:22.925 --> 00:18:24.806 Will we get into the 40s? 279 00:18:25.406 --> 00:18:26.146 What do you think? 280 00:18:26.286 --> 00:18:31.588 What's your take right now as you look at the market and get the sentiment and pulse of crypto? 281

00:18:31.608 --> 00:18:31.748 Yeah. 282 00:18:33.288 --> 00:18:40.115 Um, previously I have stated that I have gotten more and more bullish because like Saylor is just not FTX. 283 00:18:40.135 --> 00:18:41.216 He's not three hours capital. 284 00:18:41.256 --> 00:18:45.160 We don't have that same sort of like sins to pay for compared to last cycle. 285 00:18:45.380 --> 00:18:51.486 When last cycle, Bitcoin did meaningfully go below the 200 week moving average because of all that contagion that we had to deal with. 286 00:18:51.926 --> 00:18:53.548 And so this cycle doesn't look anything like that. 287 00:18:54.468 --> 00:18:56.789 I'm less and less bullish these days. 288 00:18:56.849 --> 00:18:59.889 I'm moderately more bearish, trending more bearish just a little bit. 289 00:19:01.230 --> 00:19:08.131 So, like, I think maybe two weeks ago I was saying I was like 60% plus we've already bottomed, and now I'm like 40% plus we've already bottomed. 290 00:19:08.852 --> 00:19:14.553 And my analysis that I'll make up on the spot this week is that – 291 00:19:15.213 --> 00:19:20.177 I do think Saylor's getting out of the way of the market, as I've said, which is what's kind of needed. 292 00:19:20.237 --> 00:19:21.358 He is doing that. 293 00:19:21.878 --> 00:19:27.203 Yet, nonetheless, like, what if the market just bottoms and pukes anyways? 294 00:19:27.563 --> 00:19:27.823 Yeah. 295 00:19:27.843 --> 00:19:29.144 Because of whatever reason. 296 00:19:29.284 --> 00:19:30.425 And again, not a huge amount. 297 00:19:31.566 --> 00:19:34.949 But just like sets a new low, calls it good. 298 00:19:34.989 --> 00:19:37.611 People get very mean and frustrated about Bitcoin. 299 00:19:37.891 --> 00:19:45.518 And they go by the top of the AI stonks in October, which is when Ben Cowan, who knows more than me, is saying that we're going to bottom around October. 300 00:19:45.998 --> 00:19:47.179 And then we're up only from there. 301 00:19:47.499 --> 00:19:51.703 And so I am keeping an open mind for that possibility. 302 00:19:51.743 --> 00:19:56.527 I am not yet a buyer of Bitcoin, but I do plan on Bitcoin. 303 00:19:57.207 --> 00:20:00.712 backing up the truck if that does happen. 304 00:20:00.732 --> 00:20:03.497 Backing up the truck, what, selling what? 305 00:20:03.657 --> 00:20:05.439 Selling AI stocks for this? 306 00:20:05.860 --> 00:20:06.441 Would you dare? 307 00:20:06.461 --> 00:20:08.564 Yeah. 308 00:20:10.099 --> 00:20:10.560 Yeah. 309 00:20:11.360 --> 00:20:11.761 Yeah. 310 00:20:11.961 --> 00:20:13.402 David plans to time it perfectly. 311 00:20:13.643 --> 00:20:15.044 You know, you get the top on AI stocks. 312 00:20:15.084 --> 00:20:15.464 Yeah, exactly. 313 00:20:15.484 --> 00:20:16.565 And you get the bottom on Bitcoin. 314 00:20:16.665 --> 00:20:18.928 I always intend on timing it perfectly. 315 00:20:18.968 --> 00:20:19.708 Perfect timing here. 316 00:20:20.890 --> 00:20:24.914 Let's talk next, after the sponsor break, about the Bitcoin fork. 317 00:20:24.934 --> 00:20:26.015 Speaking of perfect timing. 318 00:20:26.535 --> 00:20:27.776 Fork died in two blocks. 319 00:20:27.796 --> 00:20:28.937 What was going on here? 320 00:20:28.977 --> 00:20:31.300 Nick Carter called it the death of Max Flesser. 321 00:20:31.620 --> 00:20:32.221 Worst fork ever. 322 00:20:32.701 --> 00:20:33.221 in history. 323 00:20:33.601 --> 00:20:36.943 Also, the Robinhood chain, we'll discuss that, is going very well. 324 00:20:36.963 --> 00:20:38.544 We'll see if that can be sustained. 325 00:20:38.604 --> 00:20:42.205 All this and more, but before we do, we want to thank the sponsors that made this possible. 326 00:20:42.505 --> 00:20:49.829 I've been trading crypto assets for almost a decade, and I've used so many wallets, exchanges, aggregators, front ends, and I'm kind of always looking for the same thing. 327 00:20:50.069 --> 00:20:57.332 One interface with deep liquidity across a bunch of chains and assets, and the ability to act in private, and I still control my own funds. 328 00:20:57.512 --> 00:20:58.612 And I've never really found it. 329 00:20:58.633 --> 00:21:02.254 And I'm always switching wallets, juggling gas fees, or getting eaten by slippage. 330 00:21:02.434 --> 00:21:05.275 Near.com feels fundamentally different to me. 331 00:21:05.616 --> 00:21:11.318 My account is easy to use and I can take all the actions I want from any chain while my activity remains confidential. 332 00:21:11.518 --> 00:21:18.981 It runs on Near, which has moved over $23 billion cross-chain using post-quantum signing and has over five years of uptime. 333 00:21:19.121 --> 00:21:22.363 Near.com is the best way to be on-chain and be in control. 334 00:21:22.463 --> 00:21:25.144 Get 20% of your trading fees back through the bankless link. 335 00:21:25.344 --> 00:21:27.085 It's in the show notes, not investment advice. 336 00:21:27.345 --> 00:21:30.186 Self-custody won, but it still has a usability problem. 337 00:21:30.446 --> 00:21:33.307 A seed phrase on paper is still a single point of failure. 338 00:21:33.447 --> 00:21:36.247 Phones get lost, devices break, backups disappear. 339 00:21:36.447 --> 00:21:39.888 BitKey is a self-custodial hardware wallet built for that reality. 340 00:21:40.048 --> 00:21:45.209 It uses a two of three multi-sig with keys split across your phone, the BitKey hardware device, and Block. 341 00:21:45.389 --> 00:21:48.790 No single key can move your Bitcoin, and Block can never move it alone. 342 00:21:48.910 --> 00:21:55.432 There's no seed phrase to lose or expose, and if you lose your phone, your BitKey, or both, built-in recovery gives you a path back. 343 00:21:55.572 --> 00:21:59.594 The hardware screen also lets you verify the destination before approving a transaction. 344 00:21:59.774 --> 00:22:00.474 And that's the point. 345 00:22:00.554 --> 00:22:03.355 More control without one mistake putting everything at risk. 346 00:22:03.495 --> 00:22:08.117 So download BitKey today

and use promo code BANKLESS to get 10% off of your BitKey. 347 00:22:08.377 --> 00:22:10.098 This episode has been sponsored by BitKey. 348 00:22:12.459 --> 00:22:15.540 On Saturday, August 8th at block 961,632, Bitcoin forked. 349 00:22:20.084 --> 00:22:31.695 when a handful of Bitcoin nodes enforcing BIP-110, which is a soft fork, rejected the ant pool block that mined the normal block because it didn't carry the required signal. 350 00:22:31.715 --> 00:22:34.478 So Bitcoin forked into two forks. 351 00:22:34.818 --> 00:22:36.319 This had been planned for months. 352 00:22:36.339 --> 00:22:38.341 This is what BIP-110 was. 353 00:22:38.842 --> 00:22:41.724 And this was all of the anti-ordinal 354 00:22:42.505 --> 00:22:49.027 anti-NFT, anti-arbitrary data in Bitcoin camp created BIP10. 355 00:22:49.427 --> 00:23:07.771 So at this block, they were going to fork and all the Bitcoin purists, which is to get the data off of my backyard people, were going to fork off into their own chain and have an even more constrained version of Bitcoin that had minimized all of the surface area to add arbitrary data to Bitcoin, which allowed for the ordinals. 356 00:23:08.431 --> 00:23:10.672 And the worry was that this... 357 00:23:11.312 --> 00:23:19.541 This is like a story of weird internet culture because like the Epstein files became a relevant variable in this whole thing. 358 00:23:19.561 --> 00:23:20.442 Wait, what? 359 00:23:21.243 --> 00:23:29.852 Because these hardcore Bitcoin purists, including like some of the like hardcore religious types were like, if you allow, I can't believe this is real. 360 00:23:30.232 --> 00:23:32.414 If you allow for arbitrary data in Bitcoin... 361 00:23:33.870 --> 00:23:40.214 people might put child pornography in the blockchain as an attack on Bitcoin to censor it. 362 00:23:40.234 --> 00:23:49.059 So anyone running a Bitcoin node would have to download the CP and that would make them in violation of their laws probably, wherever they live. 363 00:23:49.079 --> 00:23:50.600 And the government would shut it down. 364 00:23:50.780 --> 00:23:57.823 And then also you as a runner of the Bitcoin node would also have some moral legal responsibility. 365 00:23:58.124 --> 00:24:01.926 And isn't that disgusting, terrible... 366 00:24:02.867 --> 00:24:16.587 And so that's why we should only allow Bitcoin transfers, essentially, in the Bitcoin blockchain, not some sort of arbitrary data that had been opened up by previous forks. 367 00:24:17.312 --> 00:24:21.895 And this whole side of the Bitcoin camp, to call it a side is like doing it too much justice. 368 00:24:21.916 --> 00:24:23.156 There's not that many of these people. 369 00:24:23.777 --> 00:24:25.738 But this is like the Luke Dash Jr. camp. 370 00:24:26.039 --> 00:24:30.282 And Luke Dash Jr. is very, he's a Bitcoin core dev, been around for forever. 371 00:24:30.482 --> 00:24:36.707 Very religious and ironically has put plenty of like Bible proverbs in the blockchain. 372

00:24:36.927 --> 00:24:37.787 Like he wrote that in there. 373 00:24:37.948 --> 00:24:38.808 A Bible verses? 374 00:24:39.309 --> 00:24:40.309 A Bible verses. 375 00:24:40.389 --> 00:24:40.910 But, you know. 376 00:24:41.350 --> 00:24:43.031 To each their own, I guess. 377 00:24:43.751 --> 00:24:53.897 Anyways, the day finally came when all of these people, which are these hardcore purists, maximalists, zealots, like religious zealots type, they decided to fork. 378 00:24:54.477 --> 00:25:00.021 And so we all got to kind of see how much consensus this fork, the anti-ordinals fork had. 379 00:25:00.841 --> 00:25:06.884 It had, Ryan, 2.5% of hash power, which I'm actually impressed that they got that much. 380 00:25:07.064 --> 00:25:07.545 Yeah. 381 00:25:09.046 --> 00:25:12.348 They had 2.53% of mining power from the fork. 382 00:25:13.008 --> 00:25:15.150 The goal was to have 55%. 383 00:25:15.510 --> 00:25:26.318 The problem when you only have 2.5% of hash power is that they forgot to change the difficulty adjustment because they thought that they were going to get more hash power, I guess. 384 00:25:26.898 --> 00:25:33.603 And so the difficulty for mining a Bitcoin block stayed where it was, but they only had 2.5% amount of hash power. 385 00:25:34.044 --> 00:25:44.171 So the typical block was supposed to be like, or is going to be mined in some time in like the next year or something rather than the next 10 minutes. 386 00:25:44.231 --> 00:25:45.912 And so it killed it on delivery. 387 00:25:45.953 --> 00:25:50.076 Like it was a, what's it called when a baby's dead on delivery? 388 00:25:50.096 --> 00:25:51.257 Oh my God. 389 00:25:52.497 --> 00:25:54.059 It's that, it's that, whatever that word is. 390 00:25:54.079 --> 00:25:54.319 Okay. 391 00:25:55.747 --> 00:25:56.267 Yeah. 392 00:25:56.307 --> 00:26:01.949 Jameson Lopp, he said, I won't be welcoming back or unblocking on Twitter any BIP10 supporters. 393 00:26:01.969 --> 00:26:07.152 I expect that Bitcoin Puritan culture will continue on its path to becoming even more unhinged. 394 00:26:07.972 --> 00:26:10.473 Anyways, that's your update and drama of Bitcoin land. 395 00:26:10.493 --> 00:26:11.253 What are your thoughts? 396 00:26:11.273 --> 00:26:13.054 There's a few other things, I guess. 397 00:26:13.094 --> 00:26:18.856 So, one, I think that's interesting is it's been a while since we've seen a fork. 398 00:26:19.116 --> 00:26:23.018 And there's always the question of who decides what is... 399 00:26:23.718 --> 00:26:26.379 real Bitcoin and what is Bitcoin. 400 00:26:26.619 --> 00:26:41.664 This is the first time, to your point, that we've actually really tested this in some way since 2017 when some big things happened in 2017 with kind of the Bitcoin Cash versus Bitcoin and individual node runners, the exchanges came in on one side. 401 00:26:41.764 --> 00:26:45.605 So kind of like an overarching question to you is just like, 402 00:26:46.425 --> 00:26:48.946 Well, who does decide what is Bitcoin? 403 00:26:48.966 --> 00:26:55.767 So in a sense, the BIP 110 supporters, they sort of forked themselves off, right? 404 00:26:55.887 --> 00:27:02.449 Because they had nodes, Bitcoin nodes, most of them being non-mining nodes, of course. 405 00:27:02.509 --> 00:27:03.909 They're not necessarily miners. 406 00:27:04.549 --> 00:27:12.851 They downloaded the BIP 110 version of Bitcoin and started running it, right? 407 00:27:13.231 --> 00:27:15.112 And there's a question of like, once... 408 00:27:15.972 --> 00:27:19.897 Some users with nodes start to run this software. 409 00:27:19.997 --> 00:27:23.020 How many other users can they get to also run the software? 410 00:27:23.160 --> 00:27:27.686 And then does the economics flow as well? 411 00:27:27.966 --> 00:27:29.007 So there are other stakeholders. 412 00:27:29.387 --> 00:27:33.973 Do the exchanges decide to list whatever the ticker might be for this? 413 00:27:33.993 --> 00:27:34.093 Yeah. 414 00:27:34.353 --> 00:27:38.054 Let's say it's like BIP, BTC or something like that, right? 415 00:27:38.194 --> 00:27:40.435 Do exchanges decide to launch that? 416 00:27:40.775 --> 00:27:44.816 If exchanges launch it, what is the market price of this relative to Bitcoin? 417 00:27:45.216 --> 00:27:51.778 If there's enough market price and value, then miners may decide to get on board. 418 00:27:52.118 --> 00:27:58.240 And that's how you sort of start to get legitimacy, enough consensus that this is a thing. 419 00:27:58.661 --> 00:27:59.581 We didn't even reach... 420 00:28:00.361 --> 00:28:01.402 nearly that threshold. 421 00:28:01.462 --> 00:28:02.763 Like no exchanges listed the thing. 422 00:28:02.783 --> 00:28:03.604 Yeah, never came close. 423 00:28:04.144 --> 00:28:05.205 Yeah, it didn't get close. 424 00:28:05.465 --> 00:28:09.268 Like miners, you know, did not mine it. 425 00:28:09.288 --> 00:28:10.549 It was like a complete failure. 426 00:28:10.569 --> 00:28:12.371 Didn't even get to a threshold to test this. 427 00:28:12.411 --> 00:28:18.535 But it goes back to the question of like, who does decide what actual Bitcoin is? 428 00:28:18.695 --> 00:28:26.281 It's kind of a squishy mix of users running their own nodes plus block producers, Bitcoin miners, plus... 429 00:28:27.543 --> 00:28:32.227 social layer in the economy of exchanges and ETF issues and everybody else. 430 00:28:32.988 --> 00:28:36.111 But I think it's changed a little bit since 2017. 431 00:28:36.852 --> 00:28:50.866 I think those are all the parties involved, but there have been some parties that have gained more influence in these types of decisions, I suppose, and others that have waned in influence now. 432 00:28:50.866 --> 00:28:52.387 At least it seems like that to me. 433 00:28:52.407 --> 00:28:58.430 I mean, Michael Saylor wasn't around in 2017 in those fork wars, for instance. 434 00:28:58.850 --> 00:28:59.451 Now he is. 435 00:29:00.151 --> 00:29:07.455 It also seems like the Bitcoin maximists, like

the hardcore Bitcoiners, are more muted, more dormant. 436 00:29:07.955 --> 00:29:10.697 I mean, Nick Carter called this the death of Bitcoin. 437 00:29:11.397 --> 00:29:34.305 of uh bitcoin maxis uh he said their most hardcore foot soldiers defect to a doomed ultra orthodox faction never to return their most purist influencers exposed by shilling cold card cold card was the hack we talked about last week that was like a bitcoin only hardware um device and that was just like that did not work out for a whole bunch of the holders um 438 00:29:35.005 --> 00:29:38.087 another purist merchant payment service hack. 439 00:29:38.107 --> 00:29:42.711 So he's listing a whole bunch of flesh wounds that Bitcoin maximalists have taken this year. 440 00:29:42.971 --> 00:29:48.775 It's interesting, back in 2017, I would have called Nick Carter a Bitcoin maximalist, right? 441 00:29:49.395 --> 00:29:55.439 So like, the social landscape has completely changed and like, yeah, I don't know, what do you make of this? 442 00:29:55.780 --> 00:30:00.783 Who is deciding what Bitcoin actually is now in 2026? 443 00:30:00.863 --> 00:30:02.004 And has that changed? 444 00:30:02.905 --> 00:30:13.854 I think always the answer to this question about who decides what is Bitcoin is like the market, which is in terms of just like efficiency and correctness. 445 00:30:13.894 --> 00:30:21.060 I feel like it hits some sort of like efficiency frontier and just like, yeah, you named a bunch of players in the Bitcoin space. 446 00:30:21.321 --> 00:30:22.041 You add them all together. 447 00:30:22.061 --> 00:30:22.762 You just get the market. 448 00:30:22.782 --> 00:30:23.563 The market decides. 449 00:30:24.223 --> 00:30:33.025 Like, even if exchanges, you can take out any one part of like all the interlocking and set of incentives that compose together, create Bitcoin. 450 00:30:33.785 --> 00:30:39.366 But like if you can take away the exchanges and leave the rest, that's, you know, the market is deciding. 451 00:30:39.386 --> 00:30:42.947 You know, you can take away the node operators, but you leave the rest, that's the market deciding. 452 00:30:43.007 --> 00:30:47.928 So to me, the answer is always just like, it's the broad nebulous idea of the market. 453 00:30:48.328 --> 00:30:52.791 And ultimately, it's really probably the price. 454 00:30:53.111 --> 00:30:57.253 The price of Bitcoin is determinant of what Bitcoin is. 455 00:30:57.313 --> 00:31:06.779 And this is why when Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin had their actual civil war, there was that one day that Bitcoin Cash almost flipped Bitcoin. 456 00:31:06.839 --> 00:31:09.601 It came within pretty close. 457 00:31:09.801 --> 00:31:11.302 I forgot about that. 458 00:31:11.342 --> 00:31:13.143 Yeah, it almost flipped Bitcoin. 459 00:31:13.183 --> 00:31:14.264 It came within 15% of flipping Bitcoin. 460 00:31:16.588 --> 00:31:22.952 And like if that if it had flipped Bitcoin and then maintained it, it would like we would not we would

just be calling that Bitcoin. 461 00:31:23.092 --> 00:31:25.734 And then the other one would be like Bitcoin classic or something. 462 00:31:25.974 --> 00:31:27.655 What a different universe that would be. 463 00:31:27.775 --> 00:31:38.882 I guess my last question on this thread to you then is if Nick Carter is right and Bitcoin maximalism is dead, he's defining it in kind of like, you know, purist, super orthodox. 464 00:31:39.022 --> 00:31:42.324 There's only Bitcoin, that level of maximalism. 465 00:31:43.485 --> 00:31:45.746 If that's dead, is that good for Bitcoin? 466 00:31:48.465 --> 00:31:52.693 kind of thinks the Bitcoin maximalist side of Bitcoin has become increasingly irrelevant over the years. 467 00:31:53.414 --> 00:31:57.181 Like, even Saylor is, like, not that max-y in the sense that, like... 468 00:31:59.111 --> 00:32:01.112 he talks positively of other chains. 469 00:32:01.672 --> 00:32:18.337 And so, yeah, in the broad scope of things, like, especially this hard fork with these, like, weird zealots who are completely unhinged, like, their logic and calculus being a part of the Bitcoin conversation is just not helpful and it's best that they're not around. 470 00:32:19.228 --> 00:32:20.328 It's a different era though, isn't it? 471 00:32:20.468 --> 00:32:22.469 I mean, the cyber hornets are kind of dead. 472 00:32:23.589 --> 00:32:26.611 Their legacy, they're back in 2017, 2018, 2019. 473 00:32:26.711 --> 00:32:28.171 It's a different group now. 474 00:32:28.211 --> 00:32:31.052 And this is kind of the last vestige of that group, I think. 475 00:32:31.092 --> 00:32:33.173 And they've just forked themselves off Bitcoin. 476 00:32:33.293 --> 00:32:34.393 So there you go. 477 00:32:34.673 --> 00:32:36.994 Bitcoin fork that no one even knew about. 478 00:32:37.054 --> 00:32:39.055 Actually, they never. 479 00:32:39.095 --> 00:32:40.095 Just kidding. 480 00:32:40.675 --> 00:32:41.516 Failure to launch. 481 00:32:42.876 --> 00:32:44.477 Tell me about the Robinhood chain. 482 00:32:45.138 --> 00:32:46.879 Yeah, back into Ethereum land. 483 00:32:47.200 --> 00:32:49.241 Okay, so Robinhood chain is now the number one. 484 00:32:49.261 --> 00:32:53.065 It has been, but the data of the last week has really cemented it. 485 00:32:53.145 --> 00:32:57.228 Robinhood chain is now the number one Ethereum L2 by blockchain revenue. 486 00:32:57.688 --> 00:33:03.894 In its first full month of being live, it has generated $3.6 million in July revenue. 487 00:33:04.294 --> 00:33:10.799 I think I was, last week I projected it to come at like $3.2 million in revenue, but this last week of time, 488 00:33:11.580 --> 00:33:12.500 Oh, we're in the second week of August. 489 00:33:12.520 --> 00:33:13.681 I don't know what's going on. 490 00:33:13.741 --> 00:33:19.804 It has crescendoed in revenue because there's like a flurry of meme coin tradings, but not just meme coin tradings. 491 00:33:20.284 --> 00:33:22.165 Some of the metrics just look really good.

492 00:33:22.385 --> 00:33:29.108 App layer protocol TVL on Robinhood chain is just shy of $1 billion. 493 00:33:29.148 --> 00:33:32.269 That's across like Morpho, Uniswap, a few others. 494 00:33:33.149 --> 00:33:36.911 There's over a $1 billion supply of stable coins on Robinhood chain. 495 00:33:37.511 --> 00:33:40.473 Dex volume is tapering off, but still pretty healthy. 496 00:33:41.353 --> 00:33:45.840 Uh, and then stock token TVL, which is like the most important metric, which is still weak. 497 00:33:46.701 --> 00:33:48.243 It's nonetheless up a three X. 498 00:33:48.304 --> 00:33:51.909 It's up from a $10 million to $30 million. 499 00:33:52.490 --> 00:33:56.115 Pip squeak numbers, but it's tripled, uh, 500 00:33:56.295 --> 00:34:00.376 So $30 million is still a good number. 501 00:34:01.196 --> 00:34:04.557 And so it's also interesting to note that base is not number two. 502 00:34:04.617 --> 00:34:08.658 It's number three behind Polygon, proof of stake. 503 00:34:08.798 --> 00:34:13.320 Other than Polymarket, what else is on Polygon putting in the transaction numbers? 504 00:34:13.800 --> 00:34:17.661 I mean, stable coins, you know, like Polygon. 505 00:34:18.261 --> 00:34:18.961 Also Polymarket. 506 00:34:19.081 --> 00:34:20.202 Yeah, you said Polymarket. 507 00:34:20.262 --> 00:34:21.122 But yeah, there's... 508 00:34:21.902 --> 00:34:24.143 Polygon is surprisingly active, I think. 509 00:34:24.163 --> 00:34:27.124 They've just been continuing here. 510 00:34:27.164 --> 00:34:29.785 But yeah, that's a surprising amount of revenue from Robinhood. 511 00:34:30.226 --> 00:34:33.627 I guess my question is, do you think it can be sustained? 512 00:34:33.667 --> 00:34:39.209 Because when I look at what's happening on Robinhood, there's an element where there's nothing really new here. 513 00:34:39.649 --> 00:34:41.110 Maybe it's a new user base. 514 00:34:41.450 --> 00:34:44.271 It definitely feels like new energy into crypto, which is great. 515 00:34:44.391 --> 00:34:47.553 But it's all of the DeFi protocols that we've already had. 516 00:34:48.233 --> 00:34:51.475 Meme coins as a use case is something we have elsewhere. 517 00:34:51.515 --> 00:34:53.696 And that's a very much a known thing. 518 00:34:54.016 --> 00:34:56.617 Tokenized stocks, maybe that's kind of a breakout. 519 00:34:56.637 --> 00:35:00.940 But like... That's the new thing, but that's why it's notable that it's so low. 520 00:35:01.400 --> 00:35:01.960 Yeah, exactly. 521 00:35:01.980 --> 00:35:04.061 Maybe that's why it's so low because it's brand new. 522 00:35:04.381 --> 00:35:06.442 Well, 30 million of the what? 523 00:35:06.562 --> 00:35:08.423 You said about 1 billion? 524 00:35:08.523 --> 00:35:10.244 A billion dollars of protocol TBL. 525 00:35:10.724 --> 00:35:14.026 So it's not like it's tokenized stock that's propelling this thing. 526 00:35:14.046 --> 00:35:17.448 So my question to you is like, do you think this can be sustained actually? 527 00:35:20.229 -->

00:35:26.415 You can look at the behavior of Vlad, and this is what a lot of the meme coin traders are looking at for Signal. 528 00:35:26.775 --> 00:35:30.759 Vlad on Twitter is really leaning into Robinhood chain. 529 00:35:31.240 --> 00:35:37.106 They listed Cash Cat, which I hate talking about this, but Cash Cat was the meme coin on Robinhood chain. 530 00:35:37.126 --> 00:35:42.712 They listed it on the Robinhood app, and so all of the meme coin people and traders are happy because they're like, 531 00:35:43.584 --> 00:35:52.767 being supportive of, yeah, they are supporting the meme coin trenchers dumping their bags on Robinhood retail. 532 00:35:52.787 --> 00:35:57.289 They're supportive of that. 533 00:35:57.469 --> 00:36:09.333 But nonetheless, I think for some reason, like the trenchers really look to the leadership and be like, is the leadership like legitimizing our hobby, our passion, our way of making money? 534 00:36:09.553 --> 00:36:10.533 And the answer is yes. 535 00:36:10.713 --> 00:36:11.854 Like Vlad is doing that. 536 00:36:12.634 --> 00:36:14.595 But Ryan, I'm going to tell you a sentence. 537 00:36:15.116 --> 00:36:16.237 You're going to tell me what year it is. 538 00:36:17.097 --> 00:36:22.000 The sentence is, an NFT mint was happening, happened on Robinhood chain. 539 00:36:22.361 --> 00:36:22.961 It sold out. 540 00:36:22.981 --> 00:36:24.862 37,000 NFTs were purchased for $17 each. 541 00:36:24.882 --> 00:36:26.984 5,000 more were sold for 117 for a total of $1.3 million. 542 00:36:27.004 --> 00:36:29.345 About almost $700 in ETH was sold for NFTs on Robinhood chain. 543 00:36:29.445 --> 00:36:30.386 What year is it? 544 00:36:39.772 --> 00:36:47.221 I mean, that felt like 2021, except you said Robinhood chain, which was like completely anachronistic for that year. 545 00:36:47.381 --> 00:36:53.628 So, but are NFTs really making a comeback or doing something on the Robinhood chain? 546 00:36:53.668 --> 00:36:55.029 Is that part of the story here? 547 00:36:55.826 --> 00:37:00.548 I mean, a sold-out NFT mint that made $1.2, $1.3 million is not from 2021. 548 00:37:00.568 --> 00:37:00.968 No, it's not. 549 00:37:01.108 --> 00:37:03.909 Because it would be like hundreds of millions of dollars. 550 00:37:03.949 --> 00:37:05.810 A hundred X that number, yeah. 551 00:37:05.830 --> 00:37:08.571 We had to down price these things appropriately. 552 00:37:09.251 --> 00:37:10.191 But this was minted. 553 00:37:10.251 --> 00:37:13.032 This whole project is called Spritehood. 554 00:37:13.573 --> 00:37:15.153 So they're little sprites, little pixel arts. 555 00:37:15.714 --> 00:37:17.074 I'm not sure if we know exactly. 556 00:37:17.334 --> 00:37:18.234 They're all kind of hidden. 557 00:37:18.314 --> 00:37:19.955 So these are not the NFTs that we're looking at. 558 00:37:19.975 --> 00:37:22.356 They're kind of the placeholders because they're going to get revealed in the future. 559 00:37:22.376 --> 00:37:23.176 Okay. 560 00:37:23.196 --> 00:37:24.457 But Coal... 561 00:37:25.017 --> 00:37:29.923 who's the guy that created Pudgy Penguins back in the day, he minted these. 562 00:37:30.204 --> 00:37:33.408 So this is Cole, like, season two, like, NFT project season two. 563 00:37:33.828 --> 00:37:35.570 He sold Pudgy Penguins to Luca. 564 00:37:35.610 --> 00:37:39.135 Everyone knows Luca is the guy behind Pudgy Penguins because he sold it to Luca in, like, 2022 or 2023. 565 00:37:39.155 --> 00:37:39.896 So, yeah, we're doing NFT mints. 566 00:37:43.180 --> 00:37:46.403 You know, it just surprised me as I didn't realize this is a link to OpenSea. 567 00:37:46.803 --> 00:37:48.204 I'm on OpenSea again. 568 00:37:48.244 --> 00:37:48.965 What year, dude? 569 00:37:48.985 --> 00:37:49.445 What year is it? 570 00:37:49.465 --> 00:37:51.747 It looks so different, but it also looks the exact same. 571 00:37:52.067 --> 00:37:58.873 So, I mean, what's the probability that NFTs make a comeback, you think, in some form in crypto? 572 00:38:01.835 --> 00:38:02.195 Teens? 573 00:38:03.436 --> 00:38:04.097 Teen percentage? 574 00:38:04.437 --> 00:38:05.478 I think it's pretty high. 575 00:38:05.978 --> 00:38:08.841 I think that at some point, NFTs will make a comeback. 576 00:38:10.028 --> 00:38:11.430 I don't know if that means the original. 577 00:38:11.450 --> 00:38:14.292 Like new NFTs coming to market or old NFTs coming back? 578 00:38:14.713 --> 00:38:25.363 New NFTs and then some of the OG NFTs will kind of do well in the afterglow of some new NFT mania of some sort. 579 00:38:26.284 --> 00:38:28.846 I mean, it could take a while still. 580 00:38:28.946 --> 00:38:29.767 This may not be it. 581 00:38:29.787 --> 00:38:35.092 I'm not saying this is it, but the NFT use case, I think it's going to come back. 582 00:38:37.397 --> 00:38:41.482 Punks are currently 31 ETH floor, which has basically been where it's at in a while. 583 00:38:41.722 --> 00:38:45.687 So it's not yet in the punk flood. 584 00:38:45.707 --> 00:38:47.269 Data is not on my side in that argument. 585 00:38:47.570 --> 00:38:48.992 We got more to discuss. 586 00:38:49.512 --> 00:38:52.175 Meme coins are on your radar, David. 587 00:38:52.196 --> 00:38:52.796 More meme coins. 588 00:38:52.816 --> 00:38:53.978 We're going to talk about meme coins some more. 589 00:38:54.318 --> 00:38:55.618 Yeah, FOMO versus POMP. 590 00:38:55.838 --> 00:38:56.879 I want you to tell me about this. 591 00:38:57.019 --> 00:38:59.179 Also, Fidelity's ETH dividend. 592 00:38:59.219 --> 00:38:59.659 What's that? 593 00:38:59.879 --> 00:39:01.359 And the Clarity vote coming up. 594 00:39:01.399 --> 00:39:03.980 What's the probability that that passes all this and more? 595 00:39:04.040 --> 00:39:07.481 But before we do, let's thank the sponsors that made this possible. 596 00:39:07.801 --> 00:39:10.561 Travel rewards have gotten way more complicated than they need to be. 597 00:39:10.641 --> 00:39:16.722 You've got points that expire,

transfer partners, blackout dates, and somehow you still end up wondering if you actually got a good deal. 598 00:39:16.862 --> 00:39:19.283 Coinbase is taking a much simpler approach. 599 00:39:19.463 --> 00:39:29.506 When you book flights, hotels, rental cars, or vacation rentals through the Coinbase One travel portal using your Coinbase One card, you'll earn 5% in Bitcoin on eligible travel bookings. 600 00:39:29.666 --> 00:39:33.007 Book a $400 flight and you'll earn about $20 back in Bitcoin. 601 00:39:33.207 --> 00:39:38.249 No reward charts, no transfer partners, no redemption games, just Bitcoin that you can hold or trade. 602 00:39:38.369 --> 00:39:42.850 And every other purchase on your Coinbase One card can earn up to 4% back in Bitcoin. 603 00:39:43.031 --> 00:39:46.572 Plus new card holders earn a $50 Bitcoin bonus after spending $100 in their first 30 days. 604 00:39:47.732 --> 00:39:53.116 So if you've got travel coming up, check out the link in the show notes and see if you're approved today with no impact on your credit score. 605 00:39:53.277 --> 00:39:55.538 Or just visit Coinbase.com slash bankless. 606 00:39:55.699 --> 00:39:56.239 Terms apply. 607 00:39:56.419 --> 00:39:59.181 That's Coinbase.com slash bankless for more information. 608 00:39:59.382 --> 00:40:00.042 Some exciting news. 609 00:40:00.122 --> 00:40:04.866 We are launching a new podcast to help people figure out the crypto cycle, how to navigate it. 610 00:40:04.946 --> 00:40:07.628 The best crypto cycle investor I know, his name is Michael Nato. 611 00:40:07.728 --> 00:40:08.529 He runs the DeFi Repair. 612 00:40:08.809 --> 00:40:13.591 This is the guy that sent me a sell alert before the 1010 price drop happened. 613 00:40:13.751 --> 00:40:16.212 His cycle analysis has been absolutely on point. 614 00:40:16.292 --> 00:40:17.633 I've been following him for years. 615 00:40:17.813 --> 00:40:21.234 And this year, we started recording weekly podcast episodes. 616 00:40:21.395 --> 00:40:29.158 Each one, we get into his portfolio, what he's holding, the market structure, entry targets, fair market value of Bitcoin and Ether, and where we are in the cycle. 617 00:40:29.258 --> 00:40:31.659 There's new episodes that are released every Wednesday. 618 00:40:31.739 --> 00:40:32.459 They're 30 minutes. 619 00:40:32.539 --> 00:40:33.000 They're short. 620 00:40:33.040 --> 00:40:33.660 They're punchy. 621 00:40:33.780 --> 00:40:36.121 I think this crypto cycle is harder to navigate than most. 622 00:40:36.401 --> 00:40:37.622 So let's do it together. 623 00:40:37.782 --> 00:40:39.002 Go subscribe to this podcast. 624 00:40:39.042 --> 00:40:44.765 Search The DeFi Report wherever you get your podcasts, YouTube, Apple, Spotify, or find the link in the show notes. 625 00:40:44.905 --> 00:40:46.465 There's a new episode waiting for you now. 626 00:40:46.725 --> 00:40:48.366 Ryan, are you familiar with FOMO? 627 00:40:48.866 --> 00:40:50.107 I've heard of it, not used it. 628 00:40:51.263 --> 00:40:52.484 Basically a breakout. 629 00:40:52.504 --> 00:41:03.673 I don't know if it's a breakout into mainstream, but it has certainly broken out to basically everyone who's going to trade new tokens, new meme coins on crypto. 630 00:41:04.613 --> 00:41:05.854 It's a really friendly wallet. 631 00:41:05.974 --> 00:41:12.119 It's a lot of ex-DYDX and ex-Uniswap people to come out and build a FOMO. 632 00:41:12.179 --> 00:41:14.081 It feels like the phantom of this cycle. 633 00:41:15.081 --> 00:41:19.544 where they just have like breakout adoption, really good onboarding experience. 634 00:41:19.584 --> 00:41:22.086 And so you can get money into the app pretty easily. 635 00:41:22.106 --> 00:41:23.867 And that's very much mobile first, right? 636 00:41:23.987 --> 00:41:25.347 Mobile first. 637 00:41:25.367 --> 00:41:25.648 Yeah. 638 00:41:25.688 --> 00:41:27.709 There is a desktop, but it's very, very mobile first. 639 00:41:28.429 --> 00:41:31.391 And they've just had a gargantuan rise in users. 640 00:41:31.411 --> 00:41:34.933 So they've had 40,000 new signups in one month. 641 00:41:35.073 --> 00:41:37.335 And one user is direct revenue. 642 00:41:37.495 --> 00:41:39.036 It's not like a two-stage thing. 643 00:41:39.896 --> 00:41:48.779 I mean, I guess it is where you can download the app and just like look at it, but people tend to convert into putting money into the app and then trading, which is where FOMO gets their revenue from. 644 00:41:48.819 --> 00:41:49.919 They get money on the swaps. 645 00:41:50.800 --> 00:41:55.361 And so for 30,000 new active traders in the last month, making about 400,000 or 500,000 trades. 646 00:41:57.722 --> 00:41:58.583 But what are they trading? 647 00:41:58.623 --> 00:42:02.325 So I'm looking at the app here and I see a bunch of meme coins on the left. 648 00:42:02.365 --> 00:42:04.466 Is it primarily a meme coin trading platform? 649 00:42:04.486 --> 00:42:05.507 It's primarily meme coins. 650 00:42:05.547 --> 00:42:06.767 You can buy everything. 651 00:42:06.787 --> 00:42:10.289 You can buy Bitcoin, you can buy ETH, you can do perps, but it's primarily meme coins. 652 00:42:10.309 --> 00:42:13.111 There's a bunch of social features built into it as well. 653 00:42:13.671 --> 00:42:18.614 And so you can follow your friends, you can see what tokens they're buying, you can see how down bad they are. 654 00:42:19.595 --> 00:42:23.217 And so it's leaning very heavily into social trading features. 655 00:42:24.138 --> 00:42:28.250 And you could say the negative take or the... 656 00:42:29.623 --> 00:42:41.108 Not negative, but just like they're wrapping up PumpFun into an app and they are the consumer front end for PumpFun because so much of their revenue is Pump tokens or other meme coins. 657 00:42:41.688 --> 00:42:45.929 And it doesn't matter what chain they're on, like you can do them on FOMO. 658 00:42:46.410 --> 00:42:54.393 But there has been a growing crescendo of tension between

FOMO and Pump because Pump has its own app. 659 00:42:55.053 --> 00:42:56.775 Because it wants to verticalize, right? 660 00:42:56.795 --> 00:43:00.778 So like Pump first off started off as just the bonding curve token launchpad. 661 00:43:00.798 --> 00:43:01.278 Right. 662 00:43:01.298 --> 00:43:08.665 And then they verticalized into PumpSwap and they kicked out Radium so that they could internalize their own fees from their AMM. 663 00:43:08.685 --> 00:43:12.088 So they built their own AMM so they would stop giving all their fees to Radium. 664 00:43:12.608 --> 00:43:13.748 And so they verticalized into that. 665 00:43:13.828 --> 00:43:16.249 And then they verticalized into the pump app. 666 00:43:16.609 --> 00:43:20.531 But FOMO is competing with them at the app level. 667 00:43:20.971 --> 00:43:27.413 And because owning the user, owning the consumer is so lucrative that that's really where you want to be. 668 00:43:27.893 --> 00:43:33.755 And so FOMO revenue is like through the roof, but it's coming out of pump's pocket because they're not owning those users. 669 00:43:33.775 --> 00:43:38.376 So now there is a fight for user acquisition between the pump app and FOMO app. 670 00:43:38.616 --> 00:43:40.997 And they're at each other's teeth on Twitter saying, 671 00:43:41.297 --> 00:43:51.041 talking about which app is the more user-friendly app, which takes less fees and which gives more tokens back to their users. 672 00:43:51.121 --> 00:43:53.562 And that's the current drama on CryptoTrader right now. 673 00:43:53.582 --> 00:43:54.723 Why can't they work together? 674 00:43:55.023 --> 00:44:01.245 So just Pomp and FOMO, they both take a cut of, I don't know, trading fees? 675 00:44:01.585 --> 00:44:02.206 Yes, they do. 676 00:44:02.226 --> 00:44:02.586 That's right. 677 00:44:02.826 --> 00:44:03.186 That's right. 678 00:44:03.366 --> 00:44:04.046 Yeah. 679 00:44:04.186 --> 00:44:07.528 It strikes me that FOMO is sort of a front end on Pomp, 680 00:44:08.068 --> 00:44:10.069 That seems like that could be very collaborative, right? 681 00:44:10.109 --> 00:44:15.472 It's like MetaMask and Uniswap or like, you know, Phantom and even Pump or some exchange on Slack. 682 00:44:16.113 --> 00:44:19.515 I think Pump just wants to own the whole entire vertical. 683 00:44:19.755 --> 00:44:25.178 You are right in that like more FOMO users will end up being like good for Pump protocol, but not the Pump app. 684 00:44:25.839 --> 00:44:31.462 And the Pump team is probably like, well, we can make the most amount of money if we own the end-to-end user relationship. 685 00:44:31.482 --> 00:44:31.702 Yeah. 686 00:44:32.048 --> 00:44:41.394 The durability of meme coins has been surprising to me, even because we are in a bear market and still like pump is throwing off a lot of revenue. 687 00:44:41.814 --> 00:44:45.336 FOMO, you said 40,000, you're like new traders in the month. 688 00:44:45.456 --> 00:44:46.757 This is all meme coin stuff. 689 00:44:46.817 --> 00:44:49.399 Even Robinhood, the life is in meme coin stuff. 690 00:44:49.939 --> 00:44:52.040 Meme coins have been very persistent. 691 00:44:52.060 --> 00:44:54.602 I mean, there's the argument that they would just go the way of NFTs. 692 00:44:55.042 --> 00:44:59.065 They were like a previous cycle thing, but they have stayed around. 693 00:44:59.745 --> 00:45:05.248 even this bear cycle, which makes me think they might have a role to play in the next bull cycle. 694 00:45:05.268 --> 00:45:06.628 I don't think they're going away, David. 695 00:45:07.289 --> 00:45:08.009 Yeah, that's a good point. 696 00:45:08.069 --> 00:45:13.852 I don't quite get it because we structurally know that meme coins take people's money away. 697 00:45:14.252 --> 00:45:15.433 Structurally, that's what they do. 698 00:45:16.213 --> 00:45:18.534 A few people win, a lot of people lose. 699 00:45:18.714 --> 00:45:23.317 Where does all of this money keep on coming from to finance all of these meme coin activities? 700 00:45:24.097 --> 00:45:33.504 And so like the level of extraction that meme coins represent, yet the level of durability that they do have, I don't know how to answer that question. 701 00:45:33.624 --> 00:45:34.684 Yeah, it's been surprising. 702 00:45:34.825 --> 00:45:36.486 People like meme coins, I guess. 703 00:45:36.586 --> 00:45:38.227 Maybe just like going to the casino. 704 00:45:39.108 --> 00:45:39.428 David. 705 00:45:39.848 --> 00:45:42.050 The Clarity Act, not looking too good. 706 00:45:42.070 --> 00:45:46.894 I think it's down below 20% probability on Polymark. 707 00:45:46.934 --> 00:45:49.756 I saw 15% at some point this week. 708 00:45:49.796 --> 00:45:56.841 I think at the time of recording, it's about 18% probability that the Clarity Act happens this year. 709 00:45:57.682 --> 00:45:59.003 What is the kind of the next step? 710 00:45:59.063 --> 00:46:04.928 What has to happen next for Clarity to actually have a shot at going to effect this year? 711 00:46:06.080 --> 00:46:08.642 Well, we're getting a vote on it in September. 712 00:46:09.343 --> 00:46:12.546 So we still see a vote probably, I think. 713 00:46:13.567 --> 00:46:16.129 The Congress is going to go on recess and then we're going to get a vote. 714 00:46:16.489 --> 00:46:21.854 But despite like getting a vote or at least being told that we're going to get a vote, people are still bearish on it. 715 00:46:22.855 --> 00:46:23.315 Because A... 716 00:46:24.355 --> 00:46:27.559 So delaying benefits both the Democrats and the banks. 717 00:46:27.739 --> 00:46:30.002 Democrats just want to delay until post-midterms. 718 00:46:30.042 --> 00:46:32.785 And this is just like, maybe they're just saying, yeah, we're going to delay until September. 719 00:46:32.805 --> 00:46:33.646 And then September comes. 720 00:46:33.686 --> 00:46:35.348 Like, yeah, we're going to delay it post-midterms. 721 00:46:35.728 --> 00:46:37.550 And then midterms come. 722 00:46:38.211 --> 00:46:41.955 And then

even if the vote were to go, there's no guarantee that it would pass. 723 00:46:42.816 --> 00:46:45.737 And so, you know, it's just the doors seem to be closing. 724 00:46:45.757 --> 00:46:53.240 You know what's kind of funny here, though, is there's a silver lining in that we may still get a lot of these provisions in the interim with the Palatkins SEC. 725 00:46:53.780 --> 00:46:56.361 I saw more headlines like this from the block. 726 00:46:56.381 --> 00:47:01.063 The SEC could propose pivotal crypto rules that may start with a token safe harbor. 727 00:47:01.083 --> 00:47:03.083 This is from TD Cowan. 728 00:47:03.103 --> 00:47:03.844 So this is like... 729 00:47:04.791 --> 00:47:10.313 Paul Atkins doing parts of the Clarity Act by regulator, and that's good. 730 00:47:10.693 --> 00:47:15.054 And then also, remember the Clarity Act for the compromise of the banks? 731 00:47:15.494 --> 00:47:20.755 We were going to lose our stablecoin yield loophole. 732 00:47:21.396 --> 00:47:28.097 So if Clarity doesn't pass with that loophole closed, we're still getting the yield on our stablecoins. 733 00:47:28.777 --> 00:47:31.358 I mean, that's kind of a silver lining, isn't it? 734 00:47:31.998 --> 00:47:33.479 The banks don't get to take that from us? 735 00:47:33.499 --> 00:47:34.199 I think so. 736 00:47:34.519 --> 00:47:35.059 I think so. 737 00:47:35.500 --> 00:47:35.720 Yeah. 738 00:47:36.100 --> 00:47:38.502 There's that, I guess, even if this doesn't pass. 739 00:47:39.302 --> 00:47:39.683 Yeah. 740 00:47:40.003 --> 00:47:41.884 I still want native stablecoin yield. 741 00:47:42.124 --> 00:47:44.746 It feels right, but I guess I'm being picky. 742 00:47:45.146 --> 00:47:45.747 Yeah. 743 00:47:46.607 --> 00:47:54.493 It is a big question of like how much can Paul and Atkins and the SEC, how much can they do and how much will stick depending on the outcome of the 2028 election. 744 00:47:55.253 --> 00:47:57.154 That's the big question, of course. 745 00:47:57.314 --> 00:48:03.677 David, Fidelity is adding staking and quarterly cash distributions to its ETH ETF. 746 00:48:04.017 --> 00:48:10.000 So it's going to give staking yield to ETH ETF holders for the Fidelity ETF. 747 00:48:10.741 --> 00:48:13.202 I think it's about a billion dollars 748 00:48:13.482 --> 00:48:16.064 in there right now in their Ethereum ETF. 749 00:48:16.705 --> 00:48:21.890 And they talked about potentially staking up to 100% of their ETH holdings. 750 00:48:22.490 --> 00:48:25.213 I guess they can do that from a risk perspective. 751 00:48:25.854 --> 00:48:27.895 That's interesting in and of itself. 752 00:48:28.376 --> 00:48:35.262 I guess I wanted to ask you, I haven't really checked in too much since we talked about it last week, but the whole... 753 00:48:36.123 --> 00:48:41.045 EIP kerfuffle around capping staking issuance. 754 00:48:41.605 --> 00:48:42.906 Has that had any movement? 755 00:48:42.926 --> 00:48:51.709 I know you talked to some people on the kind of the

anti side, you talked to Stani and others, and you're looking to talk to people on the kind of the pro side. 756 00:48:52.149 --> 00:48:54.330 But is that proposal like dead? 757 00:48:54.990 --> 00:48:56.191 Or is there still some life? 758 00:48:56.231 --> 00:49:00.813 What is the more recent debate this week on, you know, staking cap? 759 00:49:01.793 --> 00:49:12.121 It's not dead in the sense that people are still discussing it and the conversation is ongoing, but it is dead in the sense that I think it's very, very, very unlikely. 760 00:49:12.881 --> 00:49:14.742 And a lot of people don't want it to the point. 761 00:49:15.003 --> 00:49:20.367 And so what we said last week is like, you need a lot of consensus to change monetary policy. 762 00:49:20.387 --> 00:49:22.448 And we don't even have a little bit of consensus on this. 763 00:49:23.269 --> 00:49:26.351 So I record with Jerome and maybe one more person. 764 00:49:26.371 --> 00:49:26.911 Yeah. 765 00:49:29.726 --> 00:49:39.031 I have been going around to ask who from the pro-Eth stake targeting side wants to come on and discuss. 766 00:49:39.511 --> 00:49:40.212 Not a lot of takers. 767 00:49:40.232 --> 00:49:40.952 Pro arguments. 768 00:49:41.452 --> 00:49:56.601 And the general answer is that if you are inside of the Ethereum Foundation part of the world, including its recent spinoffs, you don't want to expend your social capital on arguing the pro side because my interpretation is that it's a losing cause. 769 00:49:56.641 --> 00:49:58.702 And so why bother expending social capital here? 770 00:49:59.502 --> 00:50:06.987 Um, so that's not a good sign that it has that like longevity if people aren't willing to like go up to bat and fight for it in public. 771 00:50:07.227 --> 00:50:16.753 But nonetheless, uh, Jerome, who's not inside of the EF, uh, who's been like one of the pioneers, the leaders, the pushers of this, uh, EIP, he's going to come on and maybe I'm going to get one more. 772 00:50:17.233 --> 00:50:18.114 And he's still championing this. 773 00:50:18.134 --> 00:50:20.295 Sam Jernigan is, uh, you remember Sam Jernigan? 774 00:50:20.315 --> 00:50:21.336 Like he's very pro this. 775 00:50:21.556 --> 00:50:23.457 And so maybe, maybe it's him, maybe it's them too. 776 00:50:24.035 --> 00:50:28.896 Okay, so, and Jerome's not yet backing down from this, so still publicly supportive of it. 777 00:50:28.976 --> 00:50:33.038 No, he's, like, yeah, public, he's the guy that, like, introduced it in the first place. 778 00:50:34.198 --> 00:50:34.938 Gotcha, okay. 779 00:50:35.138 --> 00:50:41.660 Well, we'll see where that goes, but I'm considering it dead and ignoring a lot of the conversation around it because I just find it... 780 00:50:42.296 --> 00:50:42.797 Yeah. 781 00:50:42.817 --> 00:50:44.239 Bear market conversation. 782 00:50:44.279 --> 00:50:45.140 It just gets me down. 783 00:50:45.160 --> 00:50:46.102 Yeah. 784 00:50:46.402 --> 00:50:46.582 Yeah. 785 00:50:46.803 --> 00:50:52.190 I do think it's interesting that there's going to be an ETH ETF with staked ETH that pays a cash dividend. 786 00:50:52.611 --> 00:50:56.937 And I am going to enjoy the data that we get from this about like how many people are 787 00:50:57.698 --> 00:51:06.723 Like the BlackRock version of this ATTF versus the Fidelity version, the BlackRock, it just accrues in the value of the underlying, whereas Fidelity pays you a cash dividend. 788 00:51:07.043 --> 00:51:10.665 So we get to run those two experiments, even though like economically they're the same. 789 00:51:11.086 --> 00:51:13.907 Tax, they're slightly different, but economically the same. 790 00:51:14.307 --> 00:51:16.909 And so we get to see like how much people really like the dividend. 791 00:51:17.789 --> 00:51:18.350 I agree. 792 00:51:18.530 --> 00:51:27.015 And this is another thing, just from a pure memetics conversation and just like a, I don't know, me market fit for the asset. 793 00:51:27.655 --> 00:51:32.818 I think Wall Street and I think investors like the idea of issuance. 794 00:51:32.998 --> 00:51:35.379 They like the idea of yield on a bond. 795 00:51:36.140 --> 00:51:40.082 And that is a distinction versus Bitcoin. 796 00:51:40.762 --> 00:51:43.584 And I think it's a useful distinction, right? 797 00:51:43.644 --> 00:51:48.027 I think this is part of the reason that Wall Street and investors... 798 00:51:49.167 --> 00:51:54.990 like prefer ETH to the extent that they do prefer ETH to Bitcoin is because it has some yield. 799 00:51:55.371 --> 00:52:04.796 So just from that perspective alone, I don't know why we would, unless there was like a really compelling ironclad reason that made a lot of sense. 800 00:52:04.856 --> 00:52:06.096 I don't know why we would cut that. 801 00:52:06.537 --> 00:52:15.401 And it's like, we want to become more like Bitcoin, even though ETH issuance is lower already and people seem to like the idea of an internet bond with yield and are getting used to 802 00:52:19.080 --> 00:52:25.182 That was my conclusion with my episode with Stani and Mike, whereas like going in the opposite direction doesn't feel correct. 803 00:52:25.242 --> 00:52:28.863 Like let's not just arbitrarily increase issuance because we like yield. 804 00:52:29.123 --> 00:52:29.523 Of course. 805 00:52:30.223 --> 00:52:32.304 But let's not delete issuance either. 806 00:52:32.344 --> 00:52:34.144 There's probably a Goldilocks zone. 807 00:52:34.924 --> 00:52:44.647 It feels like it should be in the hard money end zone, which feels like it's in the 1% to 3% yield range, which is where we're at. 808 00:52:45.638 --> 00:52:46.399 That's where we're at. 809 00:52:46.719 --> 00:52:51.863 And annualized issuance for ETH right now is just at the same or less than Bitcoin. 810 00:52:51.883 --> 00:52:55.225 It's like under, you know, 0.8% per year. 811 00:52:55.545 --> 00:52:56.946 So that's a good place to be. 812 00:52:56.966 --> 00:52:57.867 Certainly less than gold. 813

00:52:58.267 --> 00:52:59.228 David, let's end with this. 814 00:53:00.409 --> 00:53:05.753 On-chain, the VVV, Venice is still doing quite well from a revenue generation perspective. 815 00:53:06.934 --> 00:53:12.738 What's seven days straight confirmed of all-time highs in Venice revenue? 816 00:53:12.798 --> 00:53:13.359 Is that what I'm seeing? 817 00:53:14.079 --> 00:53:14.439 That's right. 818 00:53:14.479 --> 00:53:22.907 Okay, so Venice Revenue and VVV on-chain burn are like one-to-one ratio in terms of just like these are one-to-one correlated with each other. 819 00:53:23.828 --> 00:53:28.873 And we have had seven days in a row of VVV burn hitting all-time highs. 820 00:53:28.973 --> 00:53:36.179 And so the last seven days have been higher than, you know, yesterday was higher than the day before, higher than the day before, higher than the day before for seven days. 821 00:53:36.720 --> 00:53:37.521 I'm looking at it right now. 822 00:53:37.781 --> 00:53:39.402 We might not hit eight. 823 00:53:39.422 --> 00:53:39.522 Yeah. 824 00:53:40.283 --> 00:53:42.104 but today might be tied for a second. 825 00:53:42.144 --> 00:53:48.546 So August 10th is currently the number one and it burned $14,000 of VVV. 826 00:53:49.006 --> 00:53:51.747 We were looking to burn $13,000 of VVV. 827 00:53:52.307 --> 00:53:56.709 But it's notable that Venice has been crescendoing in VVV burn. 828 00:53:56.789 --> 00:54:03.071 It's been since like July, it's been hovering around $10,000, $9,000 a day of VVV burn. 829 00:54:03.091 --> 00:54:05.852 And that's been the equilibrium and seemingly we're breaking through that. 830 00:54:05.872 --> 00:54:07.993 So the new question is, where does the new equilibrium lie? 831 00:54:09.333 --> 00:54:12.455 It's just something I'm watching because like the VVV price has been going down. 832 00:54:12.515 --> 00:54:14.776 It has like kind of blow off top of $20. 833 00:54:15.396 --> 00:54:18.417 But, you know, token price goes down, revenue goes up. 834 00:54:18.437 --> 00:54:22.079 I know it happens when those two things happen at the same time. 835 00:54:22.099 --> 00:54:23.320 What should happen anyway? 836 00:54:23.460 --> 00:54:25.541 I'm not sure what ought to happen, yeah. 837 00:54:27.807 --> 00:54:30.007 All right, Bankless Nation, that is it for this week. 838 00:54:30.027 --> 00:54:31.368 We will be back in a week. 839 00:54:31.428 --> 00:54:35.869 Oh, yeah, we didn't really talk about it, but it's released a day early because of scheduling reasons. 840 00:54:36.209 --> 00:54:37.289 Should we say that at the beginning? 841 00:54:37.709 --> 00:54:38.889 Yeah, it's fine. 842 00:54:39.089 --> 00:54:39.729 People know now. 843 00:54:39.789 --> 00:54:44.810 All right, well, if you made it to the end, it's because of scheduling reasons. 844 00:54:44.850 --> 00:54:45.951 That's why you got this on Thursday. 845 00:54:46.331 --> 00:54:47.471 Anyways, crypto is risky. 846 00:54:47.531 --> 00:54:49.251 That is why we are here, however. 847 00:54:49.751 --> 00:54:52.892 The institutions have landed, so we are going even further west. 848 00:54:53.012 --> 00:54:53.792 This is the frontier. 849 00:54:54.252 --> 00:54:56.773 It's not for everyone, but we are glad you're with us on the Bankless journey. 850 00:54:56.993 --> 00:54:57.393 Thanks a lot.