Transcrição completa de Episode 21: 2026 Midterm Election Special – Why Political Violence Persists and How We Can Break the Cycle

trying to move up the rung of escalation, the escalation ladder, and as climbing uh each rung, trying to find the point where uh the they can reassert dominance in a situation. 00:03:23.439 --> 00:03:46.479 Um, and the uh the the original target um finds itself in a position where since it hasn't been broken, it hasn't collapsed, it can sometimes gain power and continue to gain power because the truth is there's not an automatic connection between use of force and victory. 00:03:46.719 --> 00:03:59.520 So many people think that um uh use of heavy force will win, and the only reason it doesn't happen is because we're too nice to do that. 00:03:59.759 --> 00:04:08.639 We don't really want to hurt somebody, so that's the reason the heavy force is not being brought out, and that's why you lose. 00:04:08.800 --> 00:04:12.080 So that leads to the argument: well, we got to stop being Mr. 00:04:12.240 --> 00:04:16.480 Nice Guy, we got to be tough, and we have to exert dominance. 00:04:16.720 --> 00:04:24.079 Well, there's a lot more to escalation dynamics, there's a lot more to conflict than that simple idea. 00:04:24.240 --> 00:04:35.759 So that idea is the core reason how states get into an escalation trap, and it's the core mistake even smart leaders make. 00:04:36.079 --> 00:04:42.000 So, in other words, the attempt to use force in order to achieve dominance fails. 00:04:42.240 --> 00:04:42.639 Yes. 00:04:42.879 --> 00:04:48.399 And consequently, the lesson that is drawn is that we haven't used enough force. 00:04:48.720 --> 00:04:50.560 You've got it exactly, Matt. 00:04:50.720 --> 00:05:07.680 So just to think back on um the whole concept of fighter flight, where you have uh one actor exerting force trying to produce fighter flight, thinking it's more likely to be flight than fight. 00:05:07.839 --> 00:05:16.399 Well, what actually happens is um you get more fight than flight almost all the time. 00:05:16.879 --> 00:05:26.959 And you are we're dealing with um not uh two uh kids on a playground, we're dealing with large societies. 00:05:27.279 --> 00:05:39.759 So even if we get some flight uh in response to our use of heavy-handed force, you often get far greater fights coming back. 00:05:40.079 --> 00:05:51.360 And that is how you get into escalation traps, cycles of violence that seem to perpetuate themselves over and over and over again. 00:05:51.759 --> 00:05:59.920 Okay, so let's go back to the beginning of the post-9-11 wars, which are sometimes called forever wars. 00:06:00.160 --> 00:06:15.360 And and it seems to me what you're saying with this concept of the escalation trap is that it's not just that the wars go on for a really long time, but that these wars are an example of how escalation fails. 00:06:15.519 --> 00:06:28.079 And so there's a tremendous amount of frustration, both among the leaders who are launching the wars and among the public who is asking what's going on here? 00:06:28.240 --> 00:06:31.519 How come we're engaged in these wars that don't seem to be productive? 00:06:31.839 --> 00:06:32.240 That's right. 00:06:32.480 --> 00:06:48.240 So, at some level, would you say that there's a continuity between the immediate post-9-11 responses to the 9-11 attacks all the way up through what's currently going on between the US and Iran? 00:06:48.399 --> 00:06:50.720 Aaron Powell Well, there are a number of continuities. 00:06:50.879 --> 00:07:01.040 Um, and the most important continuity that helps to explain how the actors get stuck in an escalation trap. 00:07:01.120 --> 00:07:09.040 Because keep in mind, what I'm saying is that there's an initial escalation that's tactically successful, but a strategic failure. 00:07:09.279 --> 00:07:21.279 And it's seen by the actors themselves within a relatively short period of time, um, within three to six months for sure, and then they're stuck in a trap. 00:07:21.519 --> 00:07:23.040 Why are they stuck? 00:07:23.199 --> 00:07:24.639 Let's talk about that. 00:07:24.879 --> 00:07:36.639 And let's let's compare why the Bush administration got stuck in a forever war escalation trap after 9-11 to why we're stuck in this trap now with Iran. 00:07:37.040 --> 00:07:46.000 There's one key feature, and that is the um domestic election cycle. 00:07:46.399 --> 00:07:49.680 The domestic election cycle. 00:07:50.079 --> 00:08:01.279 So what we had happen, we invade Iraq in March 2003, and we discover we're in an escalation trap. 00:08:01.439 --> 00:08:12.160 Um it's it's true I was warning about that, but I would say the Bush administration really got the message here starting about spring of 2004. 00:08:12.240 --> 00:08:19.759 That's when I think they fully got that they were in the trap and widely across the administration, but they didn't they didn't get out. 00:08:20.079 --> 00:08:20.879 Why not? 00:08:21.120 --> 00:08:22.720 Why didn't they get out? 00:08:23.040 --> 00:08:30.160 They uh the president had an election when November 2024. 00:08:30.800 --> 00:08:32.559 I'm sorry, 2004. 00:08:33.039 --> 00:08:35.519 November 2004. 00:08:36.320 --> 00:08:39.200 Literally, an election is coming up. 00:08:39.519 --> 00:09:04.159 So given that six-month time frame, President Bush is stuck in an escalation trap where there's two choices because he's only got six months, in those six months, he can either double down on escalation, move up the rungs of escalation, or he can concede, pull out of a rock. 00:09:04.399 --> 00:09:08.399 And what happens if he concedes and pulls out of a rock? 00:09:08.639 --> 00:09:14.799 He loses to John Kerry in the November 2004 election. 00:09:15.200 --> 00:09:19.440 So now if you're a Democrat and you want John Kerry to win, you are all for it. 00:09:19.679 --> 00:09:22.000 President Bush, please just get out of a rock. 00:09:22.159 --> 00:09:40.320 Uh, but if you're not just President Bush, but if you are at all on that, on that side, and if you're in a messy middle where you're not quite sure, you can see right

away the electoral pressures on leaders um keep them stuck in an escalation trap. 00:09:40.639 --> 00:09:43.919 Let's have the parallel to today with with President Trump. 00:09:44.080 --> 00:09:48.399 Uh, President Trump, um, we start the war February 28th. 00:09:48.559 --> 00:09:57.440 I was warning three days before the war, we would get in an escalation trap, literally lay out the phases of it, very similar to what happened before the 2003 war. 00:09:57.759 --> 00:10:02.879 I'm laying it out for the whole public to see, not just a handful of elites, so it's public record. 00:10:03.039 --> 00:10:04.559 Um, and what happens? 00:10:04.720 --> 00:10:06.559 We do get in an escalation trap. 00:10:06.720 --> 00:10:10.159 We are now um well into the eighth month of the war. 00:10:10.240 --> 00:10:12.639 It's quite clear it's an escalation trap. 00:10:12.799 --> 00:10:19.120 But why is it the case that we can't get the president Trump can't get out of the trap? 00:10:19.279 --> 00:10:27.840 You've got people telling him, oh, just concede, get out, make a deal, just give Iran whatever it wants to get us out of this. 00:10:28.080 --> 00:10:32.799 Well, what happens if President Trump does this during the midterm season? 00:10:32.960 --> 00:10:36.879 What's gonna happen is he will become Jimmy Carter. 00:10:37.039 --> 00:10:40.720 He will become the lamest of lame duck presidents. 00:10:40.879 --> 00:10:47.039 He will become uh, and by the way, Jimmy Carter's presidency was wrecked over the Iran hostage crisis. 00:10:47.200 --> 00:10:52.000 So again, it will be Iran wrecking the presidency of another president. 00:10:52.320 --> 00:10:57.919 And so um, now if you're a Democrat, you all for that happening. 00:10:58.159 --> 00:11:00.879 But this is not realistic in real politics. 00:11:01.039 --> 00:11:12.240 So what you see here is President Trump, just as President Bush just before the 20 the 2004 um election that he was facing, is doing what? 00:11:12.559 --> 00:11:14.399 He is doubling down. 00:11:14.960 --> 00:11:42.480 So for many international crises, the domestic angle really throws a wrench into strategic decision making, in that the political leader, even if he or she knows that a course of action may not be productive in achieving the strategic objective, is still forced into escalating in order to demonstrate political strengths. 00:11:42.799 --> 00:11:43.200 That's right. 00:11:43.279 --> 00:11:55.039 And where we have actual textual, real-time information on this, which is very hard to come by because you'll think right away, smart leaders won't put it on paper, they won't be recorded. 00:11:55.360 --> 00:11:57.519 Well, um, over time we get that. 00:11:57.600 --> 00:12:06.799 And where we have it most voluminously is with Lyndon Johnson escalating in Vietnam in 1965 onwards. 00:12:07.039 --> 00:12:11.200 And so what he explains, and he's on tape saying this, so there was tapes. 00:12:11.519 --> 00:12:13.039 We talk about the Nixon tapes. 00:12:13.120 --> 00:12:16.960 Well, there were tapes in the Oval Office going back to Kennedy. 00:12:17.120 --> 00:12:19.840 So Nick uh Lyndon Johnson is on tapes. 00:12:20.000 --> 00:12:25.120 He's also in direct conversation with journalists who have recorded these conversations. 00:12:25.279 --> 00:12:35.919 I've published them on my uh various substacks so people can follow these, especially if people are looking on the Professor Pape uh Substack where I've laid these out, these the evidence. 00:12:36.080 --> 00:12:42.559 And what Lyndon Johnson says is rather directly that um he is in a bind politically. 00:12:42.799 --> 00:12:52.960 He knows that the next escalation, starting rolling thunder, is the key example, um, is unlikely to uh win the war in Vietnam. 00:12:53.120 --> 00:12:57.600 He he thinks there might be a tiny chance it might win, but it's not a big chance. 00:12:57.759 --> 00:13:02.480 And uh the reason he's doing it is because he's a Democrat. 00:13:02.639 --> 00:13:09.679 He has a great society program that he thinks is going to be critical for civil rights and the future of America. 00:13:10.159 --> 00:13:19.120 He is judging that he needs the Southern Democratic vote to get that through Congress. 00:13:19.360 --> 00:13:23.840 And Lyndon Johnson was nothing if not a tactician in Congress. 00:13:23.919 --> 00:13:28.559 So before he was president, he was a major political tactician in Congress. 00:13:28.879 --> 00:13:51.039 So what he explains is he is going to do these escalations, not mainly because he thinks they're going to win the war, but because without the escalation, he will lose the Southern Democratic vote and lose Medicaid, Medicare, he will lose the civil rights agenda, and America will be worse off. 00:13:51.360 --> 00:13:53.919 In the second part of our interview, I asked Dr. 00:13:54.000 --> 00:14:03.120 Pape to elaborate on the connections between domestic political forces and the escalation of the use of violence in international affairs. 00:14:03.440 --> 00:14:21.440 One of the things I found really fascinating in our last conversation was your discussion of how the escalation trap involves a quest for dominance that is not successful. 00:14:21.679 --> 00:14:45.679 And you suggested that when people seek dominance and fail to get it, there's a tendency to escalate both out of frustration and also because they know that they might be more popular among the electorate uh or among other constituencies if they escalate than if they show weakness. 00:14:46.000 --> 00:14:58.720 So you do you see some of the dynamics of international politics and international conflict as also being reflected here in the dynamics of domestic politics in America? 00:14:58.799 --> 00:14:58.960 Aaron Ross Powell, Jr. 00:14:59.360 --> 00:15:00.000 I do. 00:15:00.240 --> 00:15:08.480 And in uh my book, Our Own Worst Enemies, I have a concept called the legitimacy shock cycle. 00:15:08.879 --> 00:15:21.120 And that is um um uh a cycle

that is very similar to the dynamics of the escalation trap I use to talk about international conflict. 00:15:21.440 --> 00:15:50.559 And let me just explain what I mean, um, which is that when with the legitimacy legitimacy shock cycle, you have an actor, and let me just choose ICE as an actor, uh, that uses heavy-handed militarized force in uh residential areas to target individuals on a search and capture or search and kill sometimes mission. 00:15:51.039 --> 00:15:55.200 Um that you might say, well, that's just ICE, right? 00:15:55.440 --> 00:16:20.639 No, our opinion poll survey, and we've done 20 national uh surveys of American public, and we've done one just in the last few weeks, it shows that 17% of Americans, which equate to 40 million Americans, virtually all of them MAGA, support that heavy-handed use of force by ICE to do exactly that mission. 00:16:20.879 --> 00:16:27.919 So that's not just um um Christy Noam, that's not just Donald Trump, that's not just Stephen Miller. 00:16:28.480 --> 00:16:32.639 40 million Americans support that. 00:16:33.039 --> 00:16:38.480 So this is a pretty, this is this is what I mean by uh a use of force. 00:16:38.639 --> 00:16:43.039 And I wouldn't say there's anything like a majority of the public who agrees with that. 00:16:43.120 --> 00:16:44.240 That's not the case. 00:16:44.480 --> 00:16:55.200 But what you have is ICE then doing these heavy militarized raids in residential areas, but it is and it's supported by a determined minority. 00:16:55.440 --> 00:16:57.200 But what happens on the other side? 00:16:57.440 --> 00:17:05.759 On the other side, you have tens of millions of Americans who are extremely upset by that. 00:17:06.160 --> 00:17:16.640 They don't want militarized search and destroy, search and capture raids that are bursting down doors, sometimes wrong doors, in their neighborhoods. 00:17:16.880 --> 00:17:17.920 And what are they doing? 00:17:18.079 --> 00:17:19.200 They're protesting. 00:17:19.440 --> 00:17:20.480 They're protesting. 00:17:20.640 --> 00:17:24.319 Again, tens of millions support those protesters. 00:17:24.559 --> 00:17:28.960 So you end up with what I call a legitimacy shock. 00:17:29.839 --> 00:17:36.240 There's each side thinks they're legitimate, each side thinks they've got the support. 00:17:36.880 --> 00:17:43.440 What you have is violent populism, where there's literally tens of millions on each side here. 00:17:43.759 --> 00:17:49.680 In the few minutes we have left, let's zoom out a little bit to the bigger picture. 00:17:50.000 --> 00:18:00.720 How do we start to break out of this escalation trap that's driving us in our international affairs and in our domestic policy? 00:18:00.960 --> 00:18:14.960 What are the ways that we make our system more adaptive, more responsive to the needs of the public, so that we can diminish the sense of powerlessness and anger that seems so dominant in our politics today? 00:18:15.440 --> 00:18:26.240 So, in both situations, Matt, it's about policies for stability, not domination, not winner take all. 00:18:26.799 --> 00:18:42.960 So if um in either international escalation trap or domestic legitimacy shock cycle, the concept of victory is winner take all, then you're likely gonna continue these traps. 00:18:43.279 --> 00:18:46.240 But there is an alternative, which is stability. 00:18:46.480 --> 00:18:52.960 We spend a lot of time talking about the uh the violence, and we just have done that, right? 00:18:53.200 --> 00:19:08.799 But there's another big finding in the book, and that big finding in the book is that in survey after survey after survey, including our most recent one, uh 70% of the American public on both sides of the aisle abhor political violence. 00:19:08.960 --> 00:19:10.960 They just abhor political violence. 00:19:11.200 --> 00:19:14.960 And they're the big part of the democracy. 00:19:15.119 --> 00:19:16.400 We need to understand that. 00:19:16.559 --> 00:19:26.880 So even though we have determined minorities uh here that are supporting political violence for their perceived goals, and they both think, by the way, they're in doing it in self-defense. 00:19:27.119 --> 00:19:33.920 There are 70% who just abhor political violence because they understand it can lead to this cycle that I'm describing. 00:19:34.160 --> 00:19:44.079 Well, we have some clear examples where we have leaned into that 70% to very good results. 00:19:44.319 --> 00:19:51.519 And I try to bring those examples out as much as I can when I talk to political leaders on any side of the aisle. 00:19:51.759 --> 00:19:58.079 Uh, and let me just use one that I think many people will remember very recently: the No Kings protests. 00:19:58.319 --> 00:20:17.440 So the No Kings protests, which happened um in numerous cities, seven million, uh, the the numbers are something like seven million uh turn out in uh on one weekend in October 2025, just and 250,000 literally in the city of Chicago here. 00:20:17.839 --> 00:20:19.759 Well, there's virtually no violence. 00:20:19.920 --> 00:20:24.000 In fact, I would say no violence in that, in those protests. 00:20:24.319 --> 00:20:32.000 And that's really something to focus on because those protests were crucial in raising consciousness. 00:20:32.240 --> 00:20:38.960 And a lot of those political leaders who are running for office on the Democratic side, they're on the coattails of the no kings. 00:20:39.279 --> 00:20:46.000 So this idea that the no kings don't matter, no, this is this is a very important part of the future for these politicians. 00:20:46.160 --> 00:20:59.279 That's a very important lesson, Matt, that we should take forward here, which is the power in our country is, I don't believe, with the violent part. 00:20:59.519 --> 00:21:11.680 I know the violent part gets all the press, and and I understand that I'm studying it, I'm explaining it, but there's another message here in this book, and that is the 70% solution. 00:21:12.000 -->

00:21:21.599 And that's very important to understand because this is the uh the untapped resource for us to lean into. 00:21:22.240 --> 00:21:24.079 It's important in a couple of ways. 00:21:24.240 --> 00:21:31.599 Number one, most of the people listening to this podcast, I dare say probably maybe even all of them, Matt, are going to be part of the 70%. 00:21:32.400 --> 00:21:36.000 And they may feel frustrated, they may feel isolated. 00:21:36.240 --> 00:21:42.480 The first thing they need to know is they're not alone, they're part of the 70%. 00:21:44.079 --> 00:21:57.920 Now, they may not notice that when they're watching television or they're watching social media, because if social media and also CNN and also uh Fox News, they're playing to the more extremes. 00:21:58.079 --> 00:21:58.960 They just do. 00:21:59.200 --> 00:21:59.519 Okay. 00:22:00.079 --> 00:22:04.960 Um, but what people need to hear is they're part of the 70%. 00:22:06.400 --> 00:22:15.359 Then they need to hear that it's very important for them to communicate with their um the the political leader they most want. 00:22:15.519 --> 00:22:21.839 It really doesn't matter which side of the aisle it is with the political leader they most want, uh they most respect. 00:22:22.079 --> 00:22:26.079 And they they need to communicate with them, not just by voting. 00:22:26.240 --> 00:22:33.279 Voting is is very important in droves because if the 70% will vote in droves, they will drown out the others. 00:22:33.839 --> 00:22:35.680 But it goes beyond voting. 00:22:35.920 --> 00:22:51.119 All the political leaders I've ever met in Congress, in particular, have staffs, and you know the number one position they have often with their staff is full-time paid people to do nothing but read constituent emails and mail and phone call messages. 00:22:51.519 --> 00:22:55.440 And it's because uh a lot of constituents think, well, nobody cares. 00:22:55.519 --> 00:23:00.880 I'm just a little old, you know, you know, small potatoes here or something like that. 00:23:01.119 --> 00:23:04.799 That's not how that's not what what a lot of political leaders I see. 00:23:04.960 --> 00:23:12.559 See, most political leaders, they don't have the money to pull their constituents, they just don't have it. 00:23:12.799 --> 00:23:24.559 So if you're a member of Congress and you're one of the 435 members of Congress, where are you gonna get the hundreds of thousands of dollars it takes to do these net these surveys of your district? 00:23:24.720 --> 00:23:29.119 And the smaller the pool of people, the more expensive it is to get a good survey. 00:23:29.279 --> 00:23:31.440 The fact of the matter is you don't. 00:23:31.680 --> 00:23:37.200 So, what do you how are you reading what your constituents think this way? 00:23:37.599 --> 00:23:51.599 You're reading, and so the more that the squeaky wheels are uh the more aggressive, and those calling for more extreme, no surprise that you have politicians uh catering that way. 00:23:52.079 --> 00:24:02.640 There is real opportunity to lean into the 70 percent, and there's real opportunity for the 70 percent um um to do something. 00:24:03.039 --> 00:24:07.440 So there's a real power in this message of nonviolence. 00:24:07.759 --> 00:24:09.039 Yes, huge. 00:24:09.440 --> 00:24:19.039 And at the same time, people underestimate that power, and that's why the violent messages seem to predominate. 00:24:19.359 --> 00:24:25.519 You've got it, Matt, by underestimating their own power in the 70%. 00:24:26.880 --> 00:24:36.240 This is um an this is why this is the untapped resource that's our true advantage as we go forward. 00:24:36.640 --> 00:24:44.319 And this is why the book it's doing diagnosis in order to understand better futures. 00:24:44.960 --> 00:24:52.960 And that you talked about how this compares, same conversation we just had on the escalation trap with international. 00:24:53.519 --> 00:24:58.400 Understand diagnose in order to have better futures. 00:24:58.799 --> 00:25:04.319 Um, and that is what the 70% solution is all about. 00:25:04.640 --> 00:25:04.880 Dr. 00:25:04.960 --> 00:25:20.880 Robert Pape's reflections on the dangers of the escalation trap and the promising possibilities of this 70% solution illustrate the power of political narratives and storytelling, which is a central theme of the America's Why podcast. 00:25:21.039 --> 00:25:21.359 Dr. 00:25:21.440 --> 00:25:31.279 Pape shows how the stories we tell about political strength, victory, compromise, and legitimacy influence the choices we make. 00:25:31.680 --> 00:25:38.799 When political conflicts are presented as winner-take all struggles, compromise can appear to be weakness. 00:25:39.119 --> 00:25:45.519 But democratic stability depends on the ability to manage disagreement without violence. 00:25:45.839 --> 00:25:54.000 At this pivotal moment in American history, peaceful political participation is more important than ever. 00:25:54.720 --> 00:26:06.240 Positive political narratives and cooperative action can help us move away from cycles of escalation and overcome hard challenges together. 00:26:09.920 --> 00:26:12.559 You're listening to the America's Why Podcast. 00:26:12.640 --> 00:26:14.640 Our music is by James Fernando. 00:26:14.880 --> 00:26:20.799 For more information and to join the conversation, please visit our website at America's Why Project.com. 00:26:21.119 --> 00:26:22.559 See you next time.