Full Transcript for Best Bets Today | Commanders Blew a Win vs Giants?! | NFL, NBA, NHL, CBB & CFB Picks Thursday

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WEBVTT 1 00:00:02.419 --> 00:00:05.679 Look, man, I mean, I know it means the channel's 2 00:00:05.719 --> 00:00:08.900 growing a little bit, but people just in the comments 3 00:00:09.000 --> 00:00:12.300 every single day, man, it's just, yeah, I mean, it's 4 00:00:13.119 --> 00:00:15.689 obviously comes with the territory. Like, what are you doing here, man? 5 00:00:15.710 --> 00:00:18.289 You're coming in, you're just going to tell me which 6 00:00:19.089 --> 00:00:22.809 clips that I make that are picks that are wrong. Yeah, 7 00:00:23.949 --> 00:00:27.469 believe me, I know. But some of those are leans. 8 00:00:27.929 --> 00:00:30.179 I just put out clips on the big games just 9 00:00:30.199 --> 00:00:34.810 so you know what my opinions are on them, whatever. Look, man, 10 00:00:35.329 --> 00:00:37.530 I've been doing this for almost two decades, and if 11 00:00:38.270 --> 00:00:40.170 you come in after the fact just to tell me 12 00:00:40.210 --> 00:00:45.390 I'm wrong, what are you doing? What are you doing? Like, 13 00:00:46.090 --> 00:00:50.100 give me what your picks are every day, okay? Like 14 00:00:50.140 --> 00:00:52.920 what I'm doing on the show. You can't do better 15 00:00:52.960 --> 00:00:56.119 than I do at this. I'm sorry. You can't. Like, 16 00:00:56.159 --> 00:00:58.780 people just like to make themselves feel better coming in. Oh, 17 00:00:58.840 --> 00:01:00.820 you were wrong about this pick. You were wrong about 18 00:01:00.859 --> 00:01:05.540 this pick. They never come in and congratulate me on 19 00:01:05.599 --> 00:01:08.000 any of the plays that I got right, especially when 20 00:01:08.019 --> 00:01:10.480 they're my actual plays. No, why would they do that? No, 21 00:01:10.540 --> 00:01:12.840 it's just got to be negativity. It's just got to, 22 00:01:13.459 --> 00:01:16.219 that's the world now. You just got to bring everybody 23 00:01:16.260 --> 00:01:19.560 else down to your level because you're a loser and 24 00:01:19.620 --> 00:01:26.329 I'm not. I mean, whatever, man. Just, yeah, it's ridiculous. 25 00:01:26.359 --> 00:01:30.269 It's irritating. It's poor behavior. I mean, what do you want? 26 00:01:30.750 --> 00:01:33.109 You're a loser if you do that. I don't know 27 00:01:33.140 --> 00:01:34.900 if I have anything else to say about it. It 28 00:01:34.920 --> 00:01:38.359 takes no skill at all. It takes nothing to go 29 00:01:38.420 --> 00:01:45.239 in wrong. This pick was wrong. Yeah. Thanks. Everybody knows that. 30 00:01:45.280 --> 00:01:47.579 The game is over at this point. Give me your 31 00:01:47.620 --> 00:01:50.340 picks before the games happen and see if you can 32 00:01:50.390 --> 00:01:53.510 beat me. How about that? Because you know you cannot. 33 00:01:54.489 --> 00:01:58.459 We did go 2-1 on the show yesterday. The basketball 34 00:01:58.500 --> 00:02:02.000 plays were good. Toronto was a winner. Hopefully you didn't 35 00:02:02.040 --> 00:02:05.239 get the number really late because the Celtics rested some guys, 36 00:02:05.280 --> 00:02:07.420 I'm pretty sure, and that number was down to four 37 00:02:07.459 --> 00:02:10.389 and a half. So as long as you got a 38 00:02:10.409 --> 00:02:12.699 better number than that, you at least pushed on it. 39 00:02:12.729 --> 00:02:14.669 But I think for the most part, you must have 40 00:02:14.710 --> 00:02:16.710 won because it was six and a half when I 41 00:02:16.750 --> 00:02:18.789 gave it out on the show. I gave it out 42 00:02:18.810 --> 00:02:20.889 at seven and a half on the show. It was 43 00:02:20.930 --> 00:02:24.610 still pretty much six and a half everywhere, so. Toronto 44 00:02:24.629 --> 00:02:26.009 could have won the game outright. I mean, it was 45 00:02:26.069 --> 00:02:31.020 a low-scoring game. Toronto was winning the whole game. They 46 00:02:31.060 --> 00:02:33.439 fell behind very late, and then I think the Celtics 47 00:02:33.479 --> 00:02:36.180 probably got some free throws at the end to win 48 00:02:36.219 --> 00:02:39.659 by five. But, yeah, it was– obviously it was the 49 00:02:39.699 --> 00:02:42.310 right call. We got an easy win in the college 50 00:02:42.370 --> 00:02:46.189 basketball game with South Dakota State. That was no sweat, 51 00:02:46.409 --> 00:02:47.909 even though at one point it did get a little 52 00:02:47.930 --> 00:02:52.500 bit closer. But, yeah, I mean, I– was not concerned, really. 53 00:02:52.939 --> 00:02:55.199 It was pretty much wire to wire, easy win there. 54 00:02:56.500 --> 00:03:01.780 Utah did not get there in hockey. I don't know. 55 00:03:02.520 --> 00:03:05.159 I mean, it was 1-1 early in the game, and 56 00:03:05.199 --> 00:03:07.500 then they gave up three goals in a row, and 57 00:03:07.530 --> 00:03:10.090 that was pretty much the end of it. Horrible goaltending. 58 00:03:10.689 --> 00:03:13.569 That was what it was. I mean, I don't know 59 00:03:13.590 --> 00:03:16.330 what else to say about it, man. Utah also did not... 60 00:03:17.569 --> 00:03:20.159 It was bad goaltending on both sides, actually. Utah did 61 00:03:20.189 --> 00:03:22.520 not put up many scoring opportunities in the game, and 62 00:03:22.879 --> 00:03:24.840 when they did, they were able to get some goals. 63 00:03:25.199 --> 00:03:27.979 They cut it to 4-3 late, so it was like, 64 00:03:28.300 --> 00:03:32.099 just don't. I hate when teams do that. Just lose 4-1. 65 00:03:32.460 --> 00:03:34.819 Don't pretend like you're going to have a chance to 66 00:03:34.870 --> 00:03:37.210 win this game. You know what I mean? But that 67 00:03:37.250 --> 00:03:39.889 was the underdog play I gave out, so whatever. It 68 00:03:39.909 --> 00:03:41.729 was a 2-1 day. It was a winning day. It 69 00:03:41.789 --> 00:03:44.810 was about as good as it could be with a 2-1, 70 00:03:44.849 --> 00:03:47.889 except we didn't get the money line cash on the 71 00:03:48.569 --> 00:03:51.789 Toronto money line sprinkle part of it, because I always 72 00:03:51.849 -->

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00:03:55.050 recommend sprinkling something on the money line, like 10% of 73 00:03:55.069 --> 00:04:01.740 the bet with a game like that, an underdog like that. Yeah, whatever. 74 00:04:01.750 --> 00:04:03.639 I don't know if I have much else to say 75 00:04:03.680 --> 00:04:06.979 about that. I mean, Maction, people were complaining about Central 76 00:04:07.039 --> 00:04:10.219 Michigan not kneeling and instead running it in at the 77 00:04:10.259 --> 00:04:12.520 end of that game, but I told you I liked 78 00:04:12.560 --> 00:04:15.169 Central Michigan to cover in that game, and I I 79 00:04:15.569 --> 00:04:18.029 still don't think playing Sacramento State was the right side 80 00:04:18.069 --> 00:04:21.050 in that game, even though it was 21-7 for a 81 00:04:21.110 --> 00:04:25.629 long time there. Central Michigan completely dominated that game statistically. 82 00:04:25.670 --> 00:04:30.569 I mean, what do you want? Sacramento State, their own 83 00:04:30.750 --> 00:04:33.720 five straight up and against the spread on the road now. 84 00:04:34.740 --> 00:04:38.279 So you do seriously expect them to cover at all 85 00:04:38.759 --> 00:04:41.620 on the road? I know the argument for... I heard 86 00:04:41.660 --> 00:04:44.439 professionals talk about it. Their argument for Sacramento State was 87 00:04:44.990 --> 00:04:49.209 Central Michigan was only scoring somewhere around 20 points a game, 88 00:04:49.250 --> 00:04:54.110 and I get that, but Sacramento State, they're the worst 89 00:04:54.149 --> 00:04:57.410 defense in all of FBS football, okay? So you're not 90 00:04:57.449 --> 00:05:02.149 just talking about any average opponent there, right? Yeah, I 91 00:05:02.189 --> 00:05:03.389 don't know what else to say about that, but it 92 00:05:03.410 --> 00:05:05.829 was also a bad spot for Sacramento State after that 93 00:05:06.389 --> 00:05:10.180 monster effort against Toledo, so... I think if you played 94 00:05:10.240 --> 00:05:14.279 Sacramento State, you kind of... I think you kind of 95 00:05:14.360 --> 00:05:17.819 deserved that one. Sorry. And, yeah, I was not right 96 00:05:17.839 --> 00:05:20.310 about Ball State, but that was a 7-7 game in 97 00:05:20.319 --> 00:05:23.269 the fourth quarter, I'm pretty sure. And then the game was... 98 00:05:23.290 --> 00:05:26.949 It was rainy, and then just all hell broke loose, man. 99 00:05:26.970 --> 00:05:30.709 I don't know what else to say. Buffalo scored once, 100 00:05:30.829 --> 00:05:34.139 and then... it was like ball state just started turning 101 00:05:34.160 --> 00:05:37.089 the ball over and then ball state or excuse me, uh, 102 00:05:37.360 --> 00:05:40.860 Buffalo scored two rushing touchdowns in a span of six 103 00:05:40.939 --> 00:05:44.500 seconds after that. Cause they scored one ball state immediately 104 00:05:44.540 --> 00:05:47.079 turned the ball over and then they scored another one 105 00:05:47.120 --> 00:05:48.990 right away. So that game wasn't really what it looked 106 00:05:49.000 --> 00:05:52.310 like either. Should ball state have won the game? No, 107 00:05:52.750 --> 00:05:55.050 but you know, I mean, they were still in that 108 00:05:55.110 --> 00:05:57.990 game late until all that happened. So I don't know 109 00:05:58.009 --> 00:06:02.879 what else to, um, to say about any of that. Um, Yeah, 110 00:06:02.959 --> 00:06:06.160 I mean, my actual plays were good. My leans, yeah, 111 00:06:06.220 --> 00:06:11.000 maybe not so much, but that's how it goes. I'd 112 00:06:11.040 --> 00:06:13.220 rather have it that way than the other way around, really. 113 00:06:13.519 --> 00:06:17.240 But the other way around, you know, whatever. Like, a 114 00:06:17.279 --> 00:06:19.000 lot of times I'll have leans that are good, and 115 00:06:20.160 --> 00:06:22.879 my plays don't do well, so I hate those days. Randy, 116 00:06:22.930 --> 00:06:27.160 what's up? Thanks for hanging out. Yes. Raptors, I mean, 117 00:06:27.300 --> 00:06:31.899 it was pretty obvious. A letdown spot with no rest 118 00:06:31.939 --> 00:06:34.720 for the Celtics. The problem was they decided to rest 119 00:06:34.800 --> 00:06:38.220 players and then the line dropped pretty quickly. But, all right, 120 00:06:38.300 --> 00:06:40.839 let's go into the intro. Got a lot of stuff 121 00:06:40.860 --> 00:06:43.199 to get to. There's a noon hockey game because the 122 00:06:43.370 --> 00:06:48.730 Finland hockey series is happening. And then there is some 123 00:06:48.750 --> 00:06:51.069 college basketball in the afternoon as well. But I'm going 124 00:06:51.089 --> 00:06:53.189 to try to get through it quickly. College basketball doesn't 125 00:06:53.209 --> 00:06:54.290 have much going on today. 126 00:06:55.209 --> 00:06:55.310 And. 127 00:06:56.699 --> 00:06:58.519 the majority of the board is hockey. And then of 128 00:06:58.560 --> 00:07:00.490 course I do have to talk about football as well. 129 00:07:01.029 --> 00:07:03.089 I have two plays that are both in hockey and 130 00:07:03.649 --> 00:07:07.129 hopefully we get some wins with those. And yeah, let's 131 00:07:07.170 --> 00:07:08.769 get back on the right side with hockey, man. 132 00:07:27.060 --> 00:07:30.209 You got a slip in your palm and a hole 133 00:07:30.310 --> 00:07:31.050 in your chest. 134 00:07:31.389 --> 00:07:33.709 Black coffee on the felt, man. 135 00:07:33.769 --> 00:07:38.449 You look like a mess. Three-team parlay turned to dust 136 00:07:38.529 --> 00:07:39.230 in your hand. 137 00:07:39.850 --> 00:07:42.730 Now you stare at the chips like they made you 138 00:07:42.769 --> 00:07:46.670 this man. But don't you go quiet, don't you fade 139 00:07:46.730 --> 00:07:47.529 from the floor. 140 00:07:48.209 --> 00:07:51.649 Your name still means something to somebody for sure. 141 00:07:52.050 --> 00:07:54.009 Put the glass down, baby. 142 00:07:55.579 --> 00:08:00.899 Look at me now Hold. 143 00:08:00.639 --> 00:08:04.959 On, hold on. 144 00:08:04.180 -->

00:08:12.990 Not tonight, not now Hold on, hold on Let me 145 00:08:13.089 --> 00:08:20.870 pull you out That fell apart by its heart But 146 00:08:20.949 --> 00:08:28.350 it don't get the crown Hold on, hold on. 147 00:08:28.470 --> 00:08:39.009 Stay with me now. What's up everybody? It's Toad back 148 00:08:39.080 --> 00:08:44.659 with you with Toadstool Sports. It is Thursday, November 12th. 149 00:08:44.740 --> 00:08:48.559 Is that right? Let's just get into it, man. College 150 00:08:48.620 --> 00:08:50.720 basketball is where I'll start. I don't have a whole 151 00:08:50.740 --> 00:08:52.399 lot to say about this board today. We do have 152 00:08:52.860 --> 00:08:57.139 A couple of YouTube games early. The showdown at St. 153 00:08:57.240 --> 00:09:00.559 Pete is continuing with Kansas City. I don't know if 154 00:09:00.580 --> 00:09:02.480 this is a tournament or how they structure this, but 155 00:09:02.500 --> 00:09:06.230 Kansas City played in this thing yesterday and won, I believe. 156 00:09:06.509 --> 00:09:09.990 They're on a back-to-back here. They're playing George Mason, who's 157 00:09:10.730 --> 00:09:14.629 way better than Kansas City, but Kansas City, easy win 158 00:09:14.649 --> 00:09:17.009 yesterday against Florida A & M is what it was. 159 00:09:17.669 --> 00:09:19.830 I think I'd actually rather have Kansas City with the 160 00:09:19.889 --> 00:09:23.490 points in this one, and that's because When teams are 161 00:09:23.529 --> 00:09:26.450 playing in a new venue like this, a venue they 162 00:09:26.470 --> 00:09:30.110 haven't really played in, if one team already played in 163 00:09:30.129 --> 00:09:32.450 this venue and the other team didn't, I think the 164 00:09:32.490 --> 00:09:35.269 team that already played in that venue has an advantage 165 00:09:35.330 --> 00:09:38.029 because they're already familiar with it. They're familiar with the 166 00:09:38.120 --> 00:09:40.879 sight lines they already played yesterday. Plus, they get a 167 00:09:40.940 --> 00:09:43.679 game in that tournament under their belt, so if there 168 00:09:43.700 --> 00:09:46.320 were any nerves about it, they shed them. You know 169 00:09:46.340 --> 00:09:48.559 what I mean? George Mason's been off for a while, 170 00:09:48.659 --> 00:09:51.519 and George Mason is on a winning streak too, so 171 00:09:51.539 --> 00:09:54.720 I think having extra time off actually probably hurts them, 172 00:09:54.740 --> 00:09:57.070 and they haven't really beaten anybody good so far either. 173 00:09:57.509 --> 00:10:00.419 Even though, yeah, George Mason is obviously way better than Kansas. City, 174 00:10:00.460 --> 00:10:01.899 but you're going to get a bunch of points with 175 00:10:01.919 --> 00:10:04.639 Kansas City here. That's the way that I would play 176 00:10:04.679 --> 00:10:06.139 this game if I was going to do anything with it. 177 00:10:06.139 --> 00:10:10.620 I would take the points with the Kangaroos in this one, 178 00:10:10.820 --> 00:10:14.840 the Roos. What's the number on this? Let me see. 179 00:10:15.299 --> 00:10:19.529 George Mason's 15 and a half. They're very public, 89% 180 00:10:19.529 --> 00:10:22.289 of the tickets, 87% of the money, so it looks 181 00:10:22.330 --> 00:10:24.409 like less of the money than the tickets, so that 182 00:10:24.450 --> 00:10:26.690 does mean there might be a little bit of real 183 00:10:26.750 --> 00:10:29.070 money on the UMKC side here, and it is a 184 00:10:29.210 --> 00:10:32.730 low total as well, around 140, so taking a bunch 185 00:10:32.769 --> 00:10:36.509 of points with a low total also does make sense. 186 00:10:36.529 --> 00:10:40.220 There's an argument for first half, UMKC as well, like 187 00:10:40.250 --> 00:10:44.100 taking them to cover in the first half because George Mason... 188 00:10:44.620 --> 00:10:46.940 after a bunch of time off, they may start slow 189 00:10:46.960 --> 00:10:49.100 and they have to adjust to this new venue. So 190 00:10:49.120 --> 00:10:52.720 that might be where the biggest advantages for UMKC, uh, 191 00:10:52.860 --> 00:10:55.539 early in this game. Cause they have the momentum. Yes. 192 00:10:55.590 --> 00:10:57.330 I realized they're on a back to back, but I 193 00:10:57.350 --> 00:10:59.570 think they had some rest before that. So I'm less 194 00:10:59.610 --> 00:11:02.269 concerned about the back to back in a game like that. 195 00:11:02.309 --> 00:11:05.110 So I would take the points with UMKC and of 196 00:11:05.169 --> 00:11:10.159 course the, uh, the percentages are disappearing again on me here. 197 00:11:10.200 --> 00:11:13.840 So isn't that just great? Um, These games are on YouTube, 198 00:11:13.860 --> 00:11:16.759 I assume on the Field of 68 channel, because that's 199 00:11:17.639 --> 00:11:20.139 usually the case when you see YouTube college basketball, and 200 00:11:20.159 --> 00:11:23.730 there's another game in that tournament as well between Bradley 201 00:11:23.759 --> 00:11:26.230 and Coppin State, and I think neither of these teams 202 00:11:26.289 --> 00:11:29.070 played in this thing yet. Yeah, because Coppin State, they 203 00:11:29.090 --> 00:11:32.769 got their first win. It was against a non-D1 team, 204 00:11:33.190 --> 00:11:35.570 but they're not a good team. They're in one of 205 00:11:35.590 --> 00:11:39.870 the worst conferences. They're a bad team. Bradley, definitely the 206 00:11:39.909 --> 00:11:43.509 better team here, but I don't know how good Bradley 207 00:11:43.580 --> 00:11:44.779 is right now. I mean, they've been one of the 208 00:11:44.820 --> 00:11:48.000 better teams in the Missouri Valley recently, but they only 209 00:11:48.039 --> 00:11:51.059 have one win as well, and it's against a non-D1 team, 210 00:11:51.139 --> 00:11:54.679 so they haven't looked good so far. But they've faced 211 00:11:55.019 --> 00:12:00.509 reasonable competition. Pacific and Davidson, those teams are not that bad. Obviously, 212 00:12:00.549 --> 00:12:02.330

Bradley will be a big favorite here, but I kind 213 00:12:02.350 --> 00:12:04.549 of expected them to be a bigger favorite than they are. 214 00:12:05.090 --> 00:12:08.090 They're an 11.5-point favorite or something. We can't really see 215 00:12:08.110 --> 00:12:11.710 it here, but... I mean, it's a low total in 216 00:12:11.730 --> 00:12:17.870 the 130s. Coppin State is somewhere in the southeastern United States, 217 00:12:17.929 --> 00:12:22.509 I think, so they're closer to Florida than Bradley is. 218 00:12:22.570 --> 00:12:25.490 Bradley is in Illinois or something like that, I believe. 219 00:12:26.070 --> 00:12:30.070 I don't know, man. I'd probably take the points in 220 00:12:30.110 --> 00:12:33.889 this one, too, but Coppin State, I mean, they're really bad. 221 00:12:33.929 --> 00:12:36.929 UMKC is also quite bad, but there's at least more 222 00:12:36.980 --> 00:12:38.580 of an angle in that game. I don't really have 223 00:12:38.600 --> 00:12:40.820 a good angle on this one. I'm just... talking about 224 00:12:40.840 --> 00:12:42.860 it because it's on youtube but i got pretty much 225 00:12:42.940 --> 00:12:46.879 nothing on that all right um big 10 network as 226 00:12:46.919 --> 00:12:49.450 we get into the evening 6 30 p.m eastern we 227 00:12:49.490 --> 00:12:53.029 have tennessee tech at indiana tennessee tech is kind of 228 00:12:53.049 --> 00:12:56.149 an interesting team they're making some of these like lists 229 00:12:56.210 --> 00:12:59.950 of like good mid-major teams this year they switch conferences 230 00:12:59.990 --> 00:13:02.149 they're no longer in the ohio valley and they're in 231 00:13:02.190 --> 00:13:05.429 the uh i believe they're in the atlantic sun now 232 00:13:05.490 --> 00:13:08.320 is that right let me see they're somewhere in a 233 00:13:08.360 --> 00:13:10.980 different conference no they're in the SoCon now my mistake 234 00:13:11.779 --> 00:13:14.720 SoCon yeah I mean they're usually a fairly competitive conference 235 00:13:14.740 --> 00:13:17.860 but this Tennessee Tech team they're interesting because they play 236 00:13:17.940 --> 00:13:20.740 fast and they score a lot that's what they do 237 00:13:20.879 --> 00:13:23.799 they don't really play deep fence but you know these 238 00:13:23.879 --> 00:13:26.470 types like you know like Queens teams that have that 239 00:13:26.549 --> 00:13:29.370 style are getting all this hype Tennessee Tech seems to 240 00:13:29.470 --> 00:13:32.039 not really be getting that much hype although the The 241 00:13:32.059 --> 00:13:35.100 guys that actually analyze college basketball are definitely mentioning this 242 00:13:35.139 --> 00:13:40.179 team as a decent mid-major team. Obviously, this is a 243 00:13:40.220 --> 00:13:42.750 huge step up in class for them to face Indiana. 244 00:13:42.759 --> 00:13:45.350 And I think if I was going to play this game, 245 00:13:45.389 --> 00:13:48.769 I'd probably rather be on the over because it's a 246 00:13:48.809 --> 00:13:51.730 high total and it's high for a reason. Tennessee Tech 247 00:13:51.789 --> 00:13:55.049 is coming off a nice win against Western Kentucky, which was... 248 00:13:55.809 --> 00:13:57.610 that's their best win so far. But I mean, the 249 00:13:57.649 --> 00:13:59.669 only other game they played, uh, there was a D 250 00:13:59.809 --> 00:14:03.159 one game was Mississippi state. And they actually played reasonably 251 00:14:03.220 --> 00:14:05.789 well in that game on the road, only losing by 20, 252 00:14:05.779 --> 00:14:07.879 I believe is what that was. That's a pretty good 253 00:14:07.919 --> 00:14:11.600 result actually. Um, even though Mississippi state isn't very good 254 00:14:11.659 --> 00:14:15.120 right now, uh, Indiana, Indiana is one of these teams. 255 00:14:15.179 --> 00:14:18.970 It's like basically just sitting on the bubble to make 256 00:14:19.009 --> 00:14:22.009 the tournament every year. It seems right now. So we'll 257 00:14:22.049 --> 00:14:24.929 see what, what happens in this game. Um, I'd rather 258 00:14:24.970 --> 00:14:27.409 have the over than anything else, but I mean, there 259 00:14:27.450 --> 00:14:29.490 might be an argument for taking the points of Tennessee 260 00:14:29.570 --> 00:14:32.789 Tech here. Indiana has a huge game on deck against 261 00:14:32.889 --> 00:14:35.610 Arkansas and then Kentucky, so there is a potential look 262 00:14:35.669 --> 00:14:39.149 ahead here. As much hype as Tennessee Tech is getting, Indiana, 263 00:14:39.970 --> 00:14:42.789 their only good win so far is not that good 264 00:14:43.009 --> 00:14:46.740 at home, barely getting by a mediocre Syracuse team by three, 265 00:14:47.519 --> 00:14:50.059 which you could argue, well, maybe they'll refocus after that, 266 00:14:50.100 --> 00:14:51.720 but I don't really think so because they have these 267 00:14:51.799 --> 00:14:54.600 big games on deck here, so I would actually lean 268 00:14:54.620 --> 00:15:00.200 towards taking the points with Tennessee Tech, but the over, 269 00:15:00.240 --> 00:15:02.639 I think, is actually probably better here. The money seems 270 00:15:02.659 --> 00:15:06.639 like it did drive this number up to 169.5, which 271 00:15:06.700 --> 00:15:10.559 is pretty high, but I could see it being an 272 00:15:10.700 --> 00:15:12.039 over type of game. I think you're going to be 273 00:15:12.080 --> 00:15:15.240 looking at a fast-paced game here with a decent amount 274 00:15:15.259 --> 00:15:18.080 of scoring, and Tennessee Tech doesn't play any defense, so 275 00:15:18.120 --> 00:15:22.090 there is that. Yeah, the style seems to be conducive 276 00:15:22.110 --> 00:15:25.669 to an over. The Ticket percentage and cash percentage are 277 00:15:25.710 --> 00:15:27.629 both on the under here. I don't know how to 278 00:15:27.700 --> 00:15:30.799 read into that, really, though. Tennessee Tech is getting the 279 00:15:30.899 --> 00:15:33.460 money as far as what these percentages make it look like, 280

00:15:33.919 --> 00:15:37.120 and it's kind of a strong disparity there, 50-50 on 281 00:15:37.139 --> 00:15:40.639 the tickets, 84% of the money on Tennessee Tech at 282 00:15:40.659 --> 00:15:45.509 about plus 25 or so here. Fine. I mean, the 283 00:15:45.570 --> 00:15:47.389 money seems to be coming in that way. I guess 284 00:15:47.429 --> 00:15:50.269 I agree with that, but, yeah, I mean, my preference 285 00:15:50.309 --> 00:15:52.269 in that game probably is the overall, though I'm not 286 00:15:52.470 --> 00:15:56.460 a totals guy. as you know. By the way, Bradley 287 00:15:56.500 --> 00:15:58.840 is a very public side against Coppin State, just to 288 00:15:58.879 --> 00:16:02.320 point that out. Basically, all the tickets, although it looks 289 00:16:02.340 --> 00:16:05.340 like pretty much all the money as well, but they're 290 00:16:05.360 --> 00:16:07.710 just massively public, and it's such a low total in 291 00:16:07.750 --> 00:16:09.570 that game, it probably makes more sense to take the 292 00:16:09.649 --> 00:16:13.809 points in that one. As I already mentioned, getting double 293 00:16:13.870 --> 00:16:18.009 digits there with a total in the 130s, you know. Alright, 294 00:16:18.029 --> 00:16:20.629 what other games did I have to really talk about here? Um. 295 00:16:23.279 --> 00:16:25.970 Monmouth and Quinnipiac is actually a little bit interesting because 296 00:16:26.070 --> 00:16:28.649 Monmouth is 0-2 but if you look at their schedule 297 00:16:29.269 --> 00:16:31.990 they played St. John's to within 15 points on the 298 00:16:32.070 --> 00:16:35.889 road and then they were somewhat okay against Rhode Island 299 00:16:35.929 --> 00:16:40.519 too so they've played some difficult competitions so far Quinnipiac 300 00:16:40.539 --> 00:16:43.460 will be a step down in class after that Quinnipiac 301 00:16:43.519 --> 00:16:46.549 is sitting at 2-1 so that's where the public is 302 00:16:46.570 --> 00:16:49.009 going to be. But Quinnipiac, yeah, they played Michigan State. 303 00:16:49.049 --> 00:16:52.149 That's a good opponent. Michigan State obviously had no problem 304 00:16:52.240 --> 00:16:56.960 destroying them. Quinnipiac, they're coming off a good win, though, 305 00:16:57.000 --> 00:16:59.360 over Vermont. I mean, Vermont is an okay team. They're 306 00:16:59.419 --> 00:17:01.759 usually the best team in the American East, although they 307 00:17:01.779 --> 00:17:04.660 weren't last year. But Quinnipiac went on the road and 308 00:17:04.839 --> 00:17:06.420 upset them, and I think that was probably about a 309 00:17:06.599 --> 00:17:09.700 seven-point upset there. So I would rather be on Monmouth 310 00:17:09.759 --> 00:17:11.660 in this game. It looks way too easy to take 311 00:17:11.720 --> 00:17:14.849 Quinnipiac at minus one and a half. They have the 312 00:17:14.869 --> 00:17:17.170 better record. The public is not going to be on 313 00:17:17.210 --> 00:17:21.240 an 0-2 Monmouth team here, you know. But the oddsmakers 314 00:17:21.299 --> 00:17:24.039 are telling you Monmouth is actually the better team. The 315 00:17:24.079 --> 00:17:27.089 fact that Quinnipiac is only a one-and-a-half point favorite at home, 316 00:17:27.710 --> 00:17:29.809 and they could be in a letdown spot, basically, off 317 00:17:29.829 --> 00:17:32.549 of that Vermont game. They do have a game against 318 00:17:32.750 --> 00:17:37.660 an in-state team. sibling next at least, uh, Quinnipiac is 319 00:17:37.700 --> 00:17:41.420 playing central Connecticut, although central Connecticut has to consider themselves 320 00:17:41.460 --> 00:17:43.609 to be the little brother in that scenario there, but 321 00:17:43.680 --> 00:17:46.410 both of those schools are in Connecticut. So just to 322 00:17:46.470 --> 00:17:50.650 point that out, Monmouth is in New Jersey. Uh, yeah, 323 00:17:50.710 --> 00:17:52.670 I like Monmouth in that one. If I was going 324 00:17:52.690 --> 00:17:54.730 to do anything with that, I would play Monmouth. Uh, 325 00:17:54.779 --> 00:17:57.920 let me see. Uh, Quinnipiac is a very public side 326 00:17:57.940 --> 00:18:02.400 as well. Um, which pretty much expected. They got 87% 327 00:18:02.400 --> 00:18:05.519 of the tickets now and 89% of the money. That's, yeah, 328 00:18:05.559 --> 00:18:08.500 I mean, way too public for me in most circumstances. Again, 329 00:18:08.519 --> 00:18:10.319 it looks way too easy to just play them to 330 00:18:10.359 --> 00:18:13.119 basically win the game at one, one and a half. 331 00:18:13.200 --> 00:18:15.480 So that is not what I would do. I would 332 00:18:15.500 --> 00:18:18.400 play Monmouth to get their first win of the season there. 333 00:18:21.869 --> 00:18:27.750 In the Celtics game, low scoring. I don't know. I 334 00:18:27.890 --> 00:18:32.470 didn't really have an opinion on the total, necessarily. I 335 00:18:32.519 --> 00:18:34.759 don't know. I mean, the Celtics, they rested some of 336 00:18:34.799 --> 00:18:37.599 their better scores, I think, going into that game. But 337 00:18:37.640 --> 00:18:41.500 the total, like, the oddsmakers know when that's happening, and 338 00:18:41.519 --> 00:18:44.859 they adjust the total to account for that. So I 339 00:18:44.900 --> 00:18:47.660 did not have a read on that total. But the 340 00:18:47.700 --> 00:18:51.490 low-scoring game probably helped Toronto, though. It always helps the– well, 341 00:18:51.509 --> 00:18:54.890 it doesn't always, but it almost– I don't want to 342 00:18:54.920 --> 00:18:58.150 say almost always, but it usually does help the underdog 343 00:18:58.630 --> 00:19:01.410 when it's a lower scoring game because the points are 344 00:19:01.470 --> 00:19:05.690 worth more. I mean, the Celtics play a slow pace, 345 00:19:05.750 --> 00:19:07.430 so there is that, but they usually hit a ton 346 00:19:07.450 --> 00:19:11.339 of threes. I mean, I guess that would be the 347 00:19:11.430 --> 00:19:13.059 argument for a low scoring game would be that

the 348 00:19:13.119 --> 00:19:15.920 Celtics hit a ton of threes in the Philly game 349 00:19:15.960 --> 00:19:18.900 and that would be expected to regress in the next game. 350 00:19:20.170 --> 00:19:21.910 but I don't know obviously my read on that game 351 00:19:21.930 --> 00:19:25.430 was always on the side yeah I mean I don't 352 00:19:25.450 --> 00:19:28.390 know my total reads are not good so I don't 353 00:19:28.410 --> 00:19:31.670 know High Point is playing Southern Utah here and I 354 00:19:31.710 --> 00:19:33.299 kind of took a look at this game because I 355 00:19:33.359 --> 00:19:35.680 knew High Point had a big game on deck against St. 356 00:19:35.759 --> 00:19:38.279 Louis so I'm like well they might be looking ahead 357 00:19:38.319 --> 00:19:41.259 to that plus they just beat Washington State even though 358 00:19:41.299 --> 00:19:43.319 High Point was actually favored in that game and it 359 00:19:43.339 --> 00:19:46.349 was at High Point so Washington State was all the 360 00:19:46.390 --> 00:19:48.700 way across the country for it, and Washington State's not 361 00:19:48.720 --> 00:19:52.069 that good, but they are. still a former and now 362 00:19:52.690 --> 00:19:56.170 current Pac-12 team, Washington State, so they still have a 363 00:19:56.210 --> 00:19:58.829 lot of name recognition there, so High Point beating them 364 00:20:00.069 --> 00:20:03.099 still might matter to them, and they might overlook Southern 365 00:20:03.190 --> 00:20:06.099 Utah here. The thing is, Southern Utah, they're going to 366 00:20:06.119 --> 00:20:08.279 be possibly out of their element as well, because they've 367 00:20:08.299 --> 00:20:11.079 got to go to High Point to play this game. 368 00:20:11.559 --> 00:20:14.799 Southern Utah, I believe they were actually a little bit 369 00:20:14.900 --> 00:20:18.700 better last year than they usually are. They're sitting at 3-0, 370 00:20:18.740 --> 00:20:21.009 just like High Point, but Southern Utah hasn't even played 371 00:20:21.069 --> 00:20:23.769 a Division I team yet, and this is their first 372 00:20:23.869 --> 00:20:25.849 road game, so I was like, well, scratch that. I'm 373 00:20:25.869 --> 00:20:28.230 not going to try to fade High Point with a 374 00:20:28.309 --> 00:20:32.670 Southern Utah team that's faced no competition so far, and 375 00:20:32.710 --> 00:20:35.069 this is their first road game. And while they're in 376 00:20:35.130 --> 00:20:37.990 North Carolina, they have to play Wake Forest, too, although... 377 00:20:38.049 --> 00:20:40.049 They might put weight into this high point game because 378 00:20:40.069 --> 00:20:43.109 there's so much hype around them. But yeah, I was like, okay, 379 00:20:43.210 --> 00:20:46.170 I'm going to scratch that one. Don't want anything to 380 00:20:46.210 --> 00:20:49.519 do with that game. When my initial read was to 381 00:20:49.640 --> 00:20:52.759 fade high point and I mean, that still might be 382 00:20:52.799 --> 00:20:54.500 the right lean. I don't know. I mean, high point 383 00:20:54.539 --> 00:20:57.539 is a public side. 75% of the tickets, 77% of 384 00:20:57.559 --> 00:21:01.019 the cash on them laying 22 and a half, 23. 385 00:21:01.019 --> 00:21:04.309 But I mean, I just give out leans on these 386 00:21:04.329 --> 00:21:06.329 games that I talk about and it's a lot of 387 00:21:06.430 --> 00:21:10.359 underdogs in these early college basketball games, but many of 388 00:21:10.400 --> 00:21:12.960 them are not going to hit. This is a game 389 00:21:12.980 --> 00:21:16.269 that I'm definitely staying away from, especially taking points against 390 00:21:16.309 --> 00:21:18.289 high point is not as good as it is against 391 00:21:18.329 --> 00:21:21.349 some other teams because we know what they are. They 392 00:21:21.390 --> 00:21:26.829 play fast and they score a lot. Their defense is bad, though. 393 00:21:26.930 --> 00:21:30.359 That's the thing. That's the strike against them. You don't 394 00:21:30.440 --> 00:21:32.839 really want to lay points with a bad defense like that, 395 00:21:32.880 --> 00:21:35.380 but again, the counter to that is they score so 396 00:21:35.420 --> 00:21:38.410 many points that they can still cover spreads like this 397 00:21:38.430 --> 00:21:42.490 because they score a ton. So, yeah, that's what you 398 00:21:42.509 --> 00:21:46.089 got going on with that team. There isn't a whole 399 00:21:46.109 --> 00:21:48.359 lot else to talk about. There is one actual big 400 00:21:48.730 --> 00:21:51.680 conference game here between Oklahoma State and Texas A & 401 00:21:51.180 --> 00:21:54.240 M at Texas A & M. That's on the SEC 402 00:21:54.259 --> 00:21:56.819 network at 8 p.m. Texas A & M is a 403 00:21:56.859 --> 00:22:00.369 pretty big favorite here. Oklahoma State is the lesser of 404 00:22:00.380 --> 00:22:03.380 these two teams. They're 2-0 right now. They might get 405 00:22:03.420 --> 00:22:06.640 some credit for blowing out Queens because you know how 406 00:22:06.740 --> 00:22:09.819 hyped Queens has been. But I keep telling you that's 407 00:22:09.859 --> 00:22:12.059 a team that doesn't play any deep. And so I'm 408 00:22:12.099 --> 00:22:14.180 not that shocked that Oklahoma State put up a ton 409 00:22:14.200 --> 00:22:16.640 of points against them. I am a little bit shocked 410 00:22:16.660 --> 00:22:19.140 that Queens didn't score more in that game, I suppose. 411 00:22:19.180 --> 00:22:22.140 That was a blowout win for Oklahoma State, beating them 412 00:22:22.180 --> 00:22:25.910 by 50 points. So Oklahoma State might be a little 413 00:22:25.930 --> 00:22:29.549 bit overvalued after a game like that. People... If the 414 00:22:29.589 --> 00:22:31.490 public looks at this, they might see this, even though 415 00:22:31.569 --> 00:22:34.210 A & M is 3-0 here. They're probably just going 416 00:22:34.230 --> 00:22:36.069 to overlook what A & M has done, even though 417 00:22:36.089 --> 00:22:39.730 they've had a couple of

blowouts on their resume as well, 418 00:22:39.890 --> 00:22:43.470 mostly against not great competition, though. So Texas A & 419 00:22:43.259 --> 00:22:46.000 M is having to step it up in competition here. 420 00:22:46.019 --> 00:22:48.440 I guess you could make the argument that the best 421 00:22:48.500 --> 00:22:51.440 opponent either of these teams has faced was actually Queens. 422 00:22:52.569 --> 00:22:53.849 Because of that, though, I think if I was going 423 00:22:53.869 --> 00:22:55.710 to do anything with this game, I would, well, first 424 00:22:55.730 --> 00:22:57.329 of all, I think I would actually play the over 425 00:22:57.410 --> 00:22:58.750 in this game if I was going to do anything 426 00:22:58.769 --> 00:23:01.410 with it, but I'd probably agree with laying the points 427 00:23:01.430 --> 00:23:03.529 with Texas A & M. And Texas A & M, 428 00:23:03.569 --> 00:23:06.609 I still have to change my mindset about them because they, 429 00:23:07.109 --> 00:23:10.539 up until last year, they were this slow-paced team. grinding 430 00:23:10.599 --> 00:23:14.039 team that was always focused on dominating in the paint, 431 00:23:14.440 --> 00:23:17.680 but they hired Bucky McMillan or whatever his name is 432 00:23:17.700 --> 00:23:20.680 as a coach last year. Nope, he's completely different. It's 433 00:23:20.819 --> 00:23:24.079 Bucky Ball now, Texas A & M. They run the floor, 434 00:23:24.140 --> 00:23:27.750 they go really fast, and basically don't play defense. So 435 00:23:28.470 --> 00:23:30.029 you're going to get a lot of overs with this 436 00:23:30.069 --> 00:23:32.009 Texas A & M team or a lot of high-scoring 437 00:23:32.049 --> 00:23:35.130 games at least, but that's why the total is really 438 00:23:35.190 --> 00:23:38.220 high in this game. That and Oklahoma State probably is 439 00:23:38.359 --> 00:23:40.200 okay with playing that way, too. They're more of a 440 00:23:40.279 --> 00:23:43.099 mid-tempo team, I think, but I think they can probably 441 00:23:43.140 --> 00:23:45.289 play either style, but A & M' s going to speed 442 00:23:45.329 --> 00:23:47.190 this up, and they're the better team at home, so 443 00:23:47.210 --> 00:23:53.390 that's probably what'll happen here. 177.5, 178 is the total. 444 00:23:53.430 --> 00:23:56.069 It actually dropped a little bit, so some money did 445 00:23:56.109 --> 00:23:58.380 actually come in on the under, but I don't know. 446 00:23:58.400 --> 00:24:00.839 The under also looks like it's public. However, I don't 447 00:24:00.859 --> 00:24:02.500 really think the public is coming in and playing an 448 00:24:02.619 --> 00:24:05.480 under here. I mean, they might not play the over 449 00:24:05.539 --> 00:24:06.920 if they think the total is too high, but I 450 00:24:06.940 --> 00:24:09.740 think they'd probably be staying away from it more than 451 00:24:09.779 --> 00:24:13.019 they'd really be playing the under. But stylistically, this game 452 00:24:13.059 --> 00:24:14.849 does look like an over to me, and I'd rather 453 00:24:14.980 --> 00:24:18.410 lay the points with Texas A & M as far 454 00:24:18.450 --> 00:24:21.150 as the side goes, but the money doesn't agree with 455 00:24:21.190 --> 00:24:22.950 me on that. 73% of the tickets and only 60% 456 00:24:22.950 --> 00:24:27.789 of the money on A & M. So we will see. 457 00:24:27.829 --> 00:24:31.289 I mean, maybe I'm wrong. Maybe Oklahoma State beating Queens 458 00:24:31.369 --> 00:24:34.630 maybe isn't hyping them up enough. And I guess, you know, 459 00:24:34.690 --> 00:24:36.990 maybe the public perception is still, well, Texas A & 460 00:24:36.869 --> 00:24:40.299 M is the SEC team, so they're in the better conference, 461 00:24:40.319 --> 00:24:43.380 so let's play them. You know, that type of thing. Plus, 462 00:24:43.400 --> 00:24:46.140 Texas A & M made the tournament again last year, 463 00:24:46.180 --> 00:24:48.859 I'm pretty sure, right? I think they won one game 464 00:24:48.920 --> 00:24:51.869 as well, which I did not get right. I thought 465 00:24:51.890 --> 00:24:55.420 they would lose to a slowdown St. Mary's team. Um, 466 00:24:55.559 --> 00:24:58.359 but that did not happen anyway. Yeah. I mean, those 467 00:24:58.380 --> 00:25:00.059 are my thoughts on that game. I think the over 468 00:25:00.119 --> 00:25:03.839 is probably my preference there, but I mean, that's always 469 00:25:03.859 --> 00:25:05.660 what I do when I see a high total like that. 470 00:25:05.700 --> 00:25:08.809 I'm just like, well, just yeah. Over, you know, it 471 00:25:08.849 --> 00:25:11.230 didn't happen in the Laker game yesterday, by the way, that, 472 00:25:11.369 --> 00:25:14.789 that game Milwaukee didn't score quite enough for it to happen, 473 00:25:14.809 --> 00:25:17.069 but that was a high scoring game. It almost got 474 00:25:17.130 --> 00:25:19.579 there in that one. So, you know, I'm keeping my 475 00:25:19.859 --> 00:25:22.839 eye on these totals that I have leans on. But obviously, 476 00:25:22.859 --> 00:25:26.500 you know me. I'm pretty much entirely a side handicapper, 477 00:25:26.519 --> 00:25:29.059 except for baseball. I do a lot of totals there. 478 00:25:31.220 --> 00:25:35.099 What else do we have here? Not a whole lot else, really, 479 00:25:35.359 --> 00:25:38.940 of a ton of interest here, really. You got Loyola 480 00:25:39.019 --> 00:25:41.200 Marymount in South Alabama. I mean, this is kind of 481 00:25:41.220 --> 00:25:46.000 an interesting game. South Alabama... Just played really close at UCF, 482 00:25:46.039 --> 00:25:47.940 so they stepped up their game against a Big 12 483 00:25:47.940 --> 00:25:50.480 team and only lost by seven, I think is what 484 00:25:50.519 --> 00:25:53.460 that is in that game. Yeah, so that was a 485 00:25:53.500 --> 00:25:55.839 good game for South Alabama. Now, coming off of that, 486 00:25:55.960 --> 00:25:57.859 maybe a little bit of a hangover spot for them. 487 00:25:58.299 --> 00:26:02.200 Big

step-up game for them there. Loyola Marymount is far 488 00:26:02.289 --> 00:26:05.990 from home, though, because they're a California team here. And 489 00:26:06.009 --> 00:26:08.150 they just played kind of a big game, too, against Troy, 490 00:26:08.190 --> 00:26:11.230 so they're actually in Alabama already. They just played in Troy. 491 00:26:11.269 --> 00:26:15.539 That's an Alabama school as well. So, Loyola Marymount does 492 00:26:15.579 --> 00:26:17.400 not have that much of a travel spot here between 493 00:26:17.440 --> 00:26:20.539 these two games they're just playing in Alabama for these 494 00:26:20.579 --> 00:26:25.119 two straight games I probably do prefer Loyola Marymount in 495 00:26:25.160 --> 00:26:27.650 this one South Alabama I think more of a hangover 496 00:26:27.710 --> 00:26:32.650 spot possible after that UCF game um Loyola Marymount maybe 497 00:26:32.670 --> 00:26:34.990 a little bit under the radar not a horrible team 498 00:26:35.049 --> 00:26:37.930 and you know I mean they had that Ugly kind 499 00:26:37.970 --> 00:26:41.390 of loss to Queens in that bye game. They paid 500 00:26:41.470 --> 00:26:43.390 Queens to come out there and play them, and Queens 501 00:26:43.490 --> 00:26:46.309 beat them in California. The money's all coming in on 502 00:26:46.349 --> 00:26:48.619 South Alabama here, but I don't really agree with it. 503 00:26:49.630 --> 00:26:51.930 South Alabama, I mean, it opened like a pick-em, and 504 00:26:51.970 --> 00:26:55.630 then the line flipped or went towards Loyola Marymount, who 505 00:26:55.690 --> 00:26:59.119 are now one, one-and-a-half-point favorites. So there was an initial 506 00:26:59.180 --> 00:27:01.700 line move on Loyola Marymount, even though we have 50-50 507 00:27:02.059 --> 00:27:05.619 on the tickets, 91% of the cash on South Alabama. So, 508 00:27:05.799 --> 00:27:07.640 I mean, I guess it could have been a false move, 509 00:27:07.680 --> 00:27:09.599 and now the money's coming in on South Alabama, but 510 00:27:09.700 --> 00:27:12.099 I would not want to be on South Alabama after 511 00:27:12.140 --> 00:27:15.630 they played that big game against a bigger conference team, 512 00:27:15.650 --> 00:27:18.410 you know. So, yeah, I would lean more towards Loyola 513 00:27:18.509 --> 00:27:22.960 Marymount there. Southern is playing at Minnesota on Big Ten 514 00:27:23.039 --> 00:27:26.599 Plus at 8 p.m., which I'm basically only mentioning because 515 00:27:26.640 --> 00:27:28.180 I think Minnesota could be in a little bit of 516 00:27:28.200 --> 00:27:30.619 a letdown. They just went into Cincinnati and pulled off 517 00:27:30.640 --> 00:27:34.890 a nice upset there. Cincinnati was probably like a seven 518 00:27:34.930 --> 00:27:37.430 or eight point favorite in that game. Seven and a 519 00:27:37.470 --> 00:27:40.839 half is what it was. So nice upset for Minnesota there. 520 00:27:41.829 --> 00:27:43.569 Could be in a letdown spot coming off of that. 521 00:27:43.609 --> 00:27:46.789 You're going to look and see, oh, Minnesota's 3-0. Southern 522 00:27:46.829 --> 00:27:49.710 is 0-4. Nobody's going to want to play Southern here. 523 00:27:49.799 --> 00:27:53.200 But Southern, I mean, look at their slate of games here. 524 00:27:53.220 --> 00:27:56.880 They always play difficult opponents early. They're one of those 525 00:27:56.900 --> 00:27:59.819 teams that does that. They battle test themselves. Look at 526 00:27:59.859 --> 00:28:04.740 their games. Yes, it's their fifth straight road game, though, 527 00:28:04.759 --> 00:28:06.900 so that's not easy. They've been all over the place. 528 00:28:07.539 --> 00:28:11.220 I've been everywhere, man. But they went to SMU, and 529 00:28:11.240 --> 00:28:13.400 they actually played okay in that game. They got blown 530 00:28:13.460 --> 00:28:17.079 out by TCU, played reasonably well against Drake, and then 531 00:28:17.099 --> 00:28:19.160 they got blown out by Iowa State. But if that 532 00:28:20.309 --> 00:28:23.609 alternating decent and bad games continues, that means they'd have 533 00:28:23.630 --> 00:28:27.170 a decent game against Minnesota here this time. And they're 534 00:28:27.210 --> 00:28:29.049 certainly not going to be intimidated. I mean, they played 535 00:28:29.089 --> 00:28:31.579 a lot of good teams on the road already, so 536 00:28:31.930 --> 00:28:33.930 I mean, coming off a game against Iowa State, I mean, 537 00:28:33.950 --> 00:28:37.839 Minnesota's a step down from that. So even if Iowa 538 00:28:37.880 --> 00:28:39.559 State is a little bit down this year from where 539 00:28:39.579 --> 00:28:41.700 they were last year. So, yeah, I like Southern in 540 00:28:41.740 --> 00:28:45.220 this game, plus the points. Minnesota typically doesn't score a 541 00:28:45.220 --> 00:28:49.190 lot either. They're typically kind of a slowdown, ugly offensive team. 542 00:28:49.509 --> 00:28:51.670 And you can tell that's probably still the case because 543 00:28:51.690 --> 00:28:54.970 the total's in the low 140s. So taking a ton 544 00:28:55.009 --> 00:28:59.509 of points against a team that's the style of Minnesota, 545 00:28:59.529 --> 00:29:03.410 like a slowdown team. grinding team it makes more sense 546 00:29:03.430 --> 00:29:05.069 to take a ton of points in a game like 547 00:29:05.109 --> 00:29:07.980 that um 25 and a half is the number there 548 00:29:08.019 --> 00:29:11.359 minnesota is public 88 of the tickets 93 of the 549 00:29:11.420 --> 00:29:14.099 money on them yeah i would take southern plus the 550 00:29:14.160 --> 00:29:16.079 points in that game if i was gonna play that 551 00:29:16.140 --> 00:29:19.890 game at all then we got uh number 23 byu 552 00:29:19.950 --> 00:29:24.250 is hosting montana state a kind of interesting game montana 553 00:29:24.269 --> 00:29:28.039 state's usually one of the top five or so teams 554 00:29:28.099 --> 00:29:30.799 in the big sky for the most part. BYU is 555 00:29:30.859 --> 00:29:34.220

obviously undefeated. They do have one good win against Ohio State. 556 00:29:34.589 --> 00:29:36.930 They beat Queens, so people give them credit for that, 557 00:29:36.990 --> 00:29:39.990 but Queens playing in high elevation, I don't know. And 558 00:29:40.019 --> 00:29:42.319 that game did not hit the total, by the way. 559 00:29:42.339 --> 00:29:44.900 It did not go over. So I thought it would 560 00:29:44.920 --> 00:29:48.720 be a little bit more high scoring than that. But 561 00:29:48.779 --> 00:29:50.480 BYU coming up with that, I mean, I don't know. 562 00:29:50.519 --> 00:29:53.440 I mean, BYU doesn't have anything upcoming, really. I mean, 563 00:29:53.660 --> 00:29:57.069 Northern Colorado, another big sky opponent that is usually a 564 00:29:57.130 --> 00:30:00.269 decent team. But, yeah, I think it's anybody's guess what 565 00:30:00.289 --> 00:30:01.829 the motivation is going to look like in this game. 566 00:30:01.869 --> 00:30:04.170 I think, well, if anything, you know Montana State at 567 00:30:04.190 --> 00:30:06.549 least will be motivated here. They're also not going to 568 00:30:06.589 --> 00:30:08.609 be intimidated because they already did at least go to 569 00:30:08.650 --> 00:30:11.690 Colorado State and play pretty well in that game, although 570 00:30:11.710 --> 00:30:14.230 BYU is a lot better than Colorado State right now. 571 00:30:14.589 --> 00:30:17.710 But Montana State did already go into elevation and play pretty, 572 00:30:19.029 --> 00:30:21.170 a team that has some weight behind their name, you know. 573 00:30:21.549 --> 00:30:23.029 And then off of that, they got a win against 574 00:30:23.089 --> 00:30:25.210 Long Beach, although I think they might have caught Long 575 00:30:25.250 --> 00:30:29.380 Beach in some sort of bad spot. I can't remember. Yeah, 576 00:30:29.410 --> 00:30:32.019 Long Beach had played really close against Utah. That's what 577 00:30:32.039 --> 00:30:33.640 I was thinking of. Yeah, so Long Beach was in 578 00:30:33.660 --> 00:30:36.579 a hangover spot there. So Montana State caught them at 579 00:30:36.599 --> 00:30:38.460 a good time. I think they probably would have beaten 580 00:30:38.480 --> 00:30:42.299 them anyway, though. Montana State is better than Long Beach. 581 00:30:42.319 --> 00:30:45.140 They were at home there. Long Beach was far away 582 00:30:45.180 --> 00:30:49.079 from home there. BYU, I mean, it's tough to take 583 00:30:49.180 --> 00:30:51.740 points against them, though, because you know what they do. 584 00:30:51.839 --> 00:30:54.839 They score at home, so it's easier for them to 585 00:30:54.880 --> 00:30:57.339 cover a number because they score a lot, even though 586 00:30:57.359 --> 00:31:00.819 their defense tends to be lacking a bit. Total in 587 00:31:00.839 --> 00:31:04.299 this game is pretty high in the 160s. BYU is 588 00:31:04.319 --> 00:31:06.680 a 23.5 point favorite for the most part. The money 589 00:31:06.740 --> 00:31:10.140 is on BYU. 56%

of the tickets are on Montana State. 590 00:31:10.140 --> 00:31:15.009 87% of the cash are on BYU. I mean, I'm 591 00:31:15.049 --> 00:31:16.990 not tempted to lay the points, I'll tell you that. 592 00:31:17.029 --> 00:31:20.309 I mean, I don't know. Tough game to figure out. 593 00:31:20.369 --> 00:31:23.190 Maybe another over here. I mean, I'd probably rather take 594 00:31:23.269 --> 00:31:24.990 the points if I was going to play the side here, 595 00:31:25.069 --> 00:31:28.269 but yeah, I got nothing on this game really. So again, 596 00:31:28.309 --> 00:31:31.559 don't read too much into what I'm saying here, but yeah, 597 00:31:31.710 --> 00:31:35.380 the ticket percentage and cash percentage are both heavily on 598 00:31:35.400 --> 00:31:37.359 the under here, but I think the over kind of 599 00:31:37.400 --> 00:31:39.660 makes some sense there. I mean, I never really want 600 00:31:39.680 --> 00:31:41.799 to be on an under in a BYU home game 601 00:31:41.819 --> 00:31:45.500 because again, it's usually you get fast pace, a lot 602 00:31:45.539 --> 00:31:48.269 of scoring and Not a ton of defense, so just 603 00:31:48.410 --> 00:31:52.430 generally at least. Yeah, I think that's it. I think 604 00:31:52.450 --> 00:31:57.579 that's all I got for college basketball there. We can 605 00:31:57.680 --> 00:31:59.799 switch over to hockey here, see how much I can 606 00:31:59.839 --> 00:32:03.960 get done. Before, I might want to take a break here, 607 00:32:03.980 --> 00:32:06.500 but these are the two sports that have the most 608 00:32:06.539 --> 00:32:09.480 going on today. Hockey, we do have a noontime game, 609 00:32:09.519 --> 00:32:10.660 so I got to get that out of the way. 610 00:32:10.680 --> 00:32:15.079 This is in Finland, Carolina and Seattle. Both teams have 611 00:32:15.099 --> 00:32:17.920 had five days off or something to prepare for this, 612 00:32:17.980 --> 00:32:21.660 or four days off, whatever. They're playing two games in Finland, 613 00:32:21.680 --> 00:32:24.289 so they're playing today, and then they're also playing on Saturday. 614 00:32:25.609 --> 00:32:29.670 All this international crap. I don't think Finland really helps 615 00:32:29.829 --> 00:32:32.910 one team over the other necessarily. Carolina is the better team, 616 00:32:32.950 --> 00:32:37.450 and usually the better team does have an easier time 617 00:32:37.470 --> 00:32:40.210 with these international games a lot of the times, but 618 00:32:40.809 --> 00:32:43.009 Carolina is a massive favorite here, so I don't think 619 00:32:43.049 --> 00:32:45.380 I'd really want to lay the price. I mean, they're 620 00:32:45.430 --> 00:32:47.700 unplayable at the price they're at, so I would not 621 00:32:47.799 --> 00:32:51.319 lay the price with them. Seattle's sitting 9-6-1, and I 622 00:32:51.319 --> 00:32:55.740 know I keep bashing Seattle because Seattle's not as good 623 00:32:55.779 --> 00:32:58.880 as their record looks, okay? But in this game, I 624 00:32:58.960 --> 00:33:03.250 would probably lean towards Seattle. I mean, Carolina, we know 625 00:33:03.269 --> 00:33:05.369 they're good. We know they're the returning champs. They just 626 00:33:05.410 --> 00:33:08.809 beat the Blackhawks 9-2. I mean, come on, man. So 627 00:33:08.849 --> 00:33:11.400 the public will be on them here. even if they 628 00:33:11.440 --> 00:33:13.680 have to find a different way to play them and 629 00:33:13.920 --> 00:33:17.799 play something at a different price with them. Carolina's been 630 00:33:17.859 --> 00:33:20.440 really hot, too. They won six of their last seven games. 631 00:33:20.809 --> 00:33:23.309 They won their last two. I talk about when there's 632 00:33:23.930 --> 00:33:27.369 a break like this and you have to go somewhere unfamiliar. 633 00:33:27.410 --> 00:33:29.309 It's like a reset button, and you don't want to 634 00:33:29.329 --> 00:33:31.849 hit a reset button when you're winning. So that could 635 00:33:31.910 --> 00:33:34.730 disrupt their momentum. So I don't love that for Carolina 636 00:33:34.779 --> 00:33:39.000 here either. Seattle... They might consider this to be bigger 637 00:33:39.099 --> 00:33:42.549 because it's like, oh, we get this international spotlight game. 638 00:33:42.880 --> 00:33:45.369 Carolina's already got the spotlight all over them because they 639 00:33:45.390 --> 00:33:48.490 won the Stanley Cup, whereas Seattle, probably a little bit 640 00:33:48.529 --> 00:33:51.190 less used to being in a spotlight game like this. Plus, 641 00:33:51.230 --> 00:33:53.349 they lost their last game before they went into the 642 00:33:53.410 --> 00:33:56.109 break against the Rangers. So I think they might be 643 00:33:57.109 --> 00:33:59.390 in more of a bounce-back spot. The rest might actually 644 00:33:59.430 --> 00:34:02.190 help them because they weren't playing that well going into 645 00:34:02.210 --> 00:34:05.009 the rest. So, yeah, I would prefer Seattle in this one. 646 00:34:05.069 --> 00:34:08.539 I would... I'd play them on the puck line. And 647 00:34:08.579 --> 00:34:10.820 of course, I already got away from the NHL schedule here. 648 00:34:10.880 --> 00:34:14.400 I did not bring it up in a new tab. Oops. Yeah, 649 00:34:14.440 --> 00:34:18.170 Carolina's super public. 94% of the tickets, 93% of the 650 00:34:18.210 --> 00:34:22.670 cash on them. They're close to a minus 300 favorite here. 651 00:34:22.690 --> 00:34:25.789 I would just puck line it with Seattle if I 652 00:34:25.809 --> 00:34:29.860 was going to play this one. Yeah, I mean, they're 653 00:34:29.880 --> 00:34:33.159 capable of getting within one goal of Carolina here. I mean, 654 00:34:33.179 --> 00:34:35.110 that's probably what I would do with them. Plus one 655 00:34:35.139 --> 00:34:38.050 and a half. I don't know what the price is 656 00:34:38.070 --> 00:34:39.190 on it. You might even be able to get like 657 00:34:39.210 --> 00:34:42.010 a plus two at a reasonable price. I'm not really

658 00:34:42.070 --> 00:34:43.570 sure like what you're going to see out there in 659 00:34:43.610 --> 00:34:46.329 the market here. But yeah, and then obviously if you 660 00:34:46.349 --> 00:34:48.090 do that, I would say put some amount of it 661 00:34:48.130 --> 00:34:50.590 on the money line because you're basically saying there'd be 662 00:34:50.610 --> 00:34:52.630 a decent chance they can win. And we know hockey 663 00:34:52.670 --> 00:34:57.409 is a low scoring game. So the underdogs have, whenever 664 00:34:57.429 --> 00:34:59.449 you think they have a decent chance in the game 665 00:34:59.489 --> 00:35:02.480 at all, you're saying they have a pretty decent chance 666 00:35:02.519 --> 00:35:07.099 to win Better than what the oddsmakers are giving you. So, yeah, 667 00:35:07.139 --> 00:35:10.760 those are my thoughts on that game. We got Montreal 668 00:35:10.860 --> 00:35:13.760 and Boston. I mean, this is a pretty big rivalry, typically. 669 00:35:14.780 --> 00:35:17.110 This is one of the biggest rivalries in hockey, actually, 670 00:35:17.130 --> 00:35:20.610 believe it or not. It's my grandfather's rivalry because he 671 00:35:20.650 --> 00:35:23.710 was from Montreal, but he actually didn't hate the Bruins. 672 00:35:24.010 --> 00:35:26.550 He was living in the Boston area, of course, so 673 00:35:26.889 --> 00:35:31.039 he was a fan of both teams somehow. I am not. 674 00:35:31.059 --> 00:35:34.679 I am a Bruins fan, as we know. But yeah, 675 00:35:34.699 --> 00:35:38.070 it's a big game, plus their original six teams as well, 676 00:35:38.150 --> 00:35:43.530 both of them. Bruins are playing, I think, above their 677 00:35:43.570 --> 00:35:45.909 pay grade right now. The Bruins have the best record 678 00:35:45.929 --> 00:35:48.329 in the Atlantic Division right now. They're not that good. 679 00:35:48.929 --> 00:35:51.429 They're definitely better than we expected. There's no doubt about that. 680 00:35:51.469 --> 00:35:53.710 They're playing really well as a team. They have a 681 00:35:53.750 --> 00:35:56.889 lot of depth that people didn't really expect. A lot 682 00:35:56.909 --> 00:36:00.449 of these young guys are contributing for the Bruins. I 683 00:36:00.530 --> 00:36:02.530 am not so sure about them in this game, though. 684 00:36:02.849 --> 00:36:07.219 Montreal is sort of a young team as well, but 685 00:36:07.239 --> 00:36:09.719 they kind of established themselves a bit more like last 686 00:36:09.780 --> 00:36:12.599 year with that playoff run that they made. Montreal is 687 00:36:12.639 --> 00:36:15.510 coming off a tough game, though, against the Wild. There 688 00:36:15.530 --> 00:36:17.630 was an overtime game, I think. Yeah, it was two 689 00:36:17.670 --> 00:36:20.829 days ago. So that's not that easy. They're not going 690 00:36:20.849 --> 00:36:24.610 to overlook Boston, but it is this weird single-game road 691 00:36:24.650 --> 00:36:27.300 trip to Boston. They do have Colorado on deck, but still, 692 00:36:27.719 --> 00:36:30.099 you're not going to overlook the team that's atop the 693 00:36:30.139 --> 00:36:33.219 Atlantic Division and that's one of your rivals. So even 694 00:36:33.239 --> 00:36:35.579 though the spot does look a little bit questionable for them, 695 00:36:35.760 --> 00:36:38.199 that was a big game against Minnesota, who is a 696 00:36:39.000 --> 00:36:41.480 pretty physical team, and they play good defense. And the 697 00:36:41.559 --> 00:36:45.039 Bruins also do that as well. Bruins, they're on a 698 00:36:45.059 --> 00:36:47.610 nice run, though. Four wins in a row. They've had 699 00:36:47.650 --> 00:36:50.010 more time off, but the time off might actually hurt 700 00:36:50.090 --> 00:36:52.349 them because they just beat Florida. That was a big 701 00:36:52.429 --> 00:36:55.630 win because if you remember Florida, Florida's like kind of 702 00:36:55.690 --> 00:36:59.150 a rival of the Bruins right now because Florida got Marshawn, 703 00:36:59.170 --> 00:37:01.130 you know, after he spent most of his career with 704 00:37:01.150 --> 00:37:05.269 the Bruins. The Bruins got eliminated from the playoffs two 705 00:37:05.289 --> 00:37:07.909 years in a row by Florida not too long ago. 706 00:37:08.400 --> 00:37:10.780 So that's a big win for the Bruins against Florida 707 00:37:10.900 --> 00:37:13.719 and they have Minnesota on deck. So these teams are 708 00:37:13.760 --> 00:37:16.119 kind of in similar spots here. Like neither team is 709 00:37:16.139 --> 00:37:18.610 in that great of a spot, but the Bruins extra 710 00:37:18.630 --> 00:37:20.690 time off with four wins in a row. I don't 711 00:37:20.730 --> 00:37:23.949 like that either. That might like disrupt their momentum here 712 00:37:23.969 --> 00:37:26.139 a little bit. So I'm probably going to leave Montreal here. 713 00:37:26.179 --> 00:37:28.059 I mean, I don't think the Bruins are completely for 714 00:37:28.139 --> 00:37:31.519 real here. The public is on the Bruins, 93% of 715 00:37:31.539 --> 00:37:34.599 the tickets on them, only 71% of the cash. They're 716 00:37:34.619 --> 00:37:37.800 around minus 120, so they're getting some respect in the market. Like, 717 00:37:37.820 --> 00:37:40.980 the market is basically saying that these teams are close 718 00:37:41.000 --> 00:37:44.719 to evenly matched. But, yeah, I mean, I'll lean to 719 00:37:44.760 --> 00:37:47.539 Montreal as an underdog there. I think that Montreal is 720 00:37:47.599 --> 00:37:49.110 still the better team, and you're getting them as an 721 00:37:49.219 --> 00:37:51.750 underdog there. So, I mean, a spot that's kind of 722 00:37:51.849 --> 00:37:56.590 similar for both teams, plus possible momentum disruption for Boston. So, 723 00:37:57.130 --> 00:38:02.820 my lean is Montreal on that one. Carolina-Seattle, I said 724 00:38:03.079 --> 00:38:06.010 Seattle puck line is the way I would play that 725 00:38:06.070 --> 00:38:07.829 game and a little bit of it on the money line. 726

00:38:07.869 --> 00:38:11.130 Play it like a spread. Seattle plus one and a 727 00:38:11.150 --> 00:38:14.190 half goals or whatever. You might be able to get 728 00:38:14.230 --> 00:38:16.889 a decent price on plus two. I'm not sure because 729 00:38:16.909 --> 00:38:21.480 they're a massive underdog there. Yeah, Seattle on the puck line. 730 00:38:24.400 --> 00:38:27.619 I'm not actually recommending that as a play. I'm saying 731 00:38:27.639 --> 00:38:30.230 that that is... if you force me to play that game, 732 00:38:30.250 --> 00:38:33.409 that's what I would do. But the good thing about 733 00:38:33.449 --> 00:38:35.969 this is we're not forced to play any specific games. 734 00:38:36.050 --> 00:38:39.989 So Minnesota at Toronto is next up. I am actually 735 00:38:40.010 --> 00:38:42.809 going to have a play on this game, even though 736 00:38:42.829 --> 00:38:46.440 it is bad. It is ugly. And Minnesota is a 737 00:38:46.480 --> 00:38:48.880 good road team and Toronto is not a good home team, 738 00:38:48.960 --> 00:38:51.579 but I think this might be the spot to do it. 739 00:38:51.579 --> 00:38:55.519 We're going to, Puck line, money line Toronto here. Split bet. 740 00:38:55.960 --> 00:38:58.039 Partially on the plus one and a half puck line 741 00:38:58.079 --> 00:39:01.340 on Toronto, which is about minus 160. The other part 742 00:39:01.360 --> 00:39:03.670 of it at plus 144 on the money line. Or 743 00:39:03.710 --> 00:39:06.829 if you just wanted to money line it, fine. But 744 00:39:06.969 --> 00:39:09.289 I prefer to make the plus one puck line out 745 00:39:09.329 --> 00:39:13.429 of it. Maybe I'm a pussy. I don't know. But yeah, 746 00:39:13.469 --> 00:39:14.829 this is the way that I do it. If they 747 00:39:14.869 --> 00:39:18.860 lose by one, the bet will push. Hold on a minute. 748 00:39:18.900 --> 00:39:21.239 I'm looking at the run line calculator here. Whoops. 749 00:39:21.260 --> 00:39:21.440 Whoops. 750 00:39:22.519 --> 00:39:24.159 I got rid of it, but I can show you 751 00:39:24.179 --> 00:39:30.389 what the split is. Minus 160, plus 140 American. wait 752 00:39:30.409 --> 00:39:31.989 why did that not work what did i do wrong 753 00:39:32.050 --> 00:39:41.059 here that should have worked what uh that's weird american 754 00:39:41.179 --> 00:39:43.920 odds yeah dude i don't know what's going on with 755 00:39:43.960 --> 00:39:48.110 this There it is. Yeah, so it's about two-thirds of 756 00:39:48.170 --> 00:39:50.530 it is going to go on the minus 160 part 757 00:39:50.550 --> 00:39:52.389 of it on the puck line. I know it says 758 00:39:52.449 --> 00:39:54.380 money line here, but you have to invert it because 759 00:39:54.400 --> 00:39:56.380 this is an underdog that I'm dealing with here and 760 00:39:56.420 --> 00:40:00.039 not a favorite. So yeah, the minus part of it 761 00:40:00.079 --> 00:40:02.420 is here, and then the plus money part of it 762 00:40:02.880 --> 00:40:06.699 is to win... the amount that you would, uh, get 763 00:40:06.780 --> 00:40:08.820 in return if you got the other part of it. Right. 764 00:40:08.900 --> 00:40:11.199 So that's how you make a plus one out of it. 765 00:40:11.219 --> 00:40:13.730 And it comes to a minus one Oh eight price. 766 00:40:13.769 --> 00:40:16.309 If you do it at exactly these numbers, it depends 767 00:40:16.369 --> 00:40:19.530 on what book you're at, but yeah, I mean, that's 768 00:40:19.590 --> 00:40:21.630 basically the split there. If you want to actually make 769 00:40:21.650 --> 00:40:24.190 it a plus one puck line, sometimes a book will 770 00:40:24.329 --> 00:40:26.380 offer you a plus one puck line, but you, you 771 00:40:26.440 --> 00:40:28.099 usually do get a better number on it if you 772 00:40:28.139 --> 00:40:30.760 make your own and you can place each wage or 773 00:40:30.780 --> 00:40:33.400 at a different book too. So, um, cause it's not 774 00:40:33.440 --> 00:40:36.059 a parlay or anything. Um, But yeah, I'm going to 775 00:40:36.079 --> 00:40:39.019 be on Toronto here. Even though, again, I don't like 776 00:40:39.059 --> 00:40:42.260 the fact they're below 500 at home. They're not playing well. 777 00:40:42.300 --> 00:40:44.719 I don't like the fact that Minnesota is very good 778 00:40:44.760 --> 00:40:48.820 on the road. But Minnesota's in a tricky spot here, man. 779 00:40:48.840 --> 00:40:51.460 Their last two games both went into overtime. They lost 780 00:40:51.500 --> 00:40:53.579 to Tampa Bay and they beat Montreal on the road. 781 00:40:53.619 --> 00:40:56.679 Those are good opponents there. So this looks like a 782 00:40:56.719 --> 00:41:00.320 spot where they might overlook Toronto, man. Toronto's the down 783 00:41:00.360 --> 00:41:03.139 spot in the schedule here. And I think you might 784 00:41:03.159 --> 00:41:05.079 get a look ahead here to the Bruins, even though 785 00:41:05.099 --> 00:41:08.800 I believe Minnesota did already beat the Bruins once this year. 786 00:41:08.900 --> 00:41:11.519 But Bruins are playing so well right now that that 787 00:41:11.639 --> 00:41:14.909 may be a look ahead. Toronto is obviously the easiest 788 00:41:14.949 --> 00:41:17.949 team to overlook in this slate of games here and 789 00:41:17.969 --> 00:41:20.909 in this quick trip that they're making to Montreal and 790 00:41:20.929 --> 00:41:23.769 Toronto here before they go down to Boston. You know 791 00:41:23.829 --> 00:41:26.530 Montreal was the bigger game here. And they got the 792 00:41:26.610 --> 00:41:29.030 win there. So even though, yes, I do think it'll 793 00:41:29.050 --> 00:41:31.449 be Volstead in net again here because they're not in 794 00:41:31.489 --> 00:41:33.349 a back-to-back or anything. So you do have to deal 795 00:41:33.389 --> 00:41:38.179 with Minnesota's better goalie here. I think Toronto has a chance. 796 00:41:38.360 --> 00:41:41.739 Toronto's just, yeah, they're playing bad. But this is a 797 00:41:41.760 --> 00:41:43.440 game they're going to get

up for. They've lost four 798 00:41:43.500 --> 00:41:46.619 games in a row all at home. The last two 799 00:41:46.639 --> 00:41:50.920 games were totally embarrassing, but good teams, New Jersey, Colorado. 800 00:41:50.960 --> 00:41:53.679 The previous game was a loss to Montreal, so people 801 00:41:53.719 --> 00:41:56.099 might look at that, too, and see the recent opponent. Oh, 802 00:41:56.679 --> 00:42:00.570 Minnesota just beat Montreal on the road, and if Montreal 803 00:42:00.590 --> 00:42:03.750 won at Toronto, which I know that was a loss 804 00:42:03.909 --> 00:42:05.730 on the show. I had Toronto in that game, too, 805 00:42:05.750 --> 00:42:08.289 so Toronto's not on my good side right now, but 806 00:42:08.570 --> 00:42:10.250 people are going to look at those results and do 807 00:42:10.289 --> 00:42:12.869 the thing and be like, oh, well, if that can 808 00:42:12.909 --> 00:42:15.809 all happen, then, of course, Minnesota's going to win this 809 00:42:15.869 --> 00:42:20.170 game easily. No, I mean, I don't think so. I mean, Toronto, 810 00:42:20.349 --> 00:42:21.719 this has got to be a game they're going to 811 00:42:21.960 --> 00:42:23.920 get up for, man. I mean, you do not want 812 00:42:23.940 --> 00:42:27.960 to have this long losing stretch like this. And I 813 00:42:28.019 --> 00:42:30.840 do see that they played a lot of tough games 814 00:42:30.900 --> 00:42:34.829 here recently. I get that. But these last couple results 815 00:42:34.849 --> 00:42:37.570 have been totally embarrassing, losing by a combined score of 816 00:42:37.590 --> 00:42:41.070 10-3 in their last two games. You know... They're going 817 00:42:41.090 --> 00:42:43.070 to give you a better effort here. I would have 818 00:42:43.110 --> 00:42:45.550 to imagine. Plus, Minnesota does kind of play more of 819 00:42:45.590 --> 00:42:48.670 a defensive style, so laying a big price with them 820 00:42:48.710 --> 00:42:50.969 on the road is not necessarily what you really want 821 00:42:51.010 --> 00:42:54.469 to do. I say we do it. I don't know 822 00:42:54.710 --> 00:42:58.219 which goaltender Toronto's going to use here. They do typically 823 00:42:58.280 --> 00:43:03.860 use Bobrovsky more than Stolarz, and Bobrovsky historically has been 824 00:43:03.880 --> 00:43:06.400 the better goalie, but this year he hasn't been. But 825 00:43:07.239 --> 00:43:09.570 I don't really care. which way or the other, this 826 00:43:09.610 --> 00:43:11.110 is all about the spot, and I think it's a 827 00:43:11.159 --> 00:43:14.800 tricky spot for Minnesota in this one, so I say 828 00:43:14.820 --> 00:43:18.320 we fade them, we did get one, I think we're 829 00:43:18.500 --> 00:43:21.420 one and one trying to fade Minnesota this year, so 830 00:43:21.460 --> 00:43:23.659 we did get them in one of their actual losses, 831 00:43:23.699 --> 00:43:25.480 I forget if it was an overtime loss or not, 832 00:43:25.519 --> 00:43:27.610 but we did get them once, but that was when 833 00:43:27.619 --> 00:43:29.309 they had Pickard and Nett, and that was part of 834 00:43:29.349 --> 00:43:31.789 the handicap, and then we lost trying to fade them 835 00:43:31.929 --> 00:43:35.389 once with Pickard and Nett, but Whatever, it'll be Volstead 836 00:43:35.409 --> 00:43:37.409 we got to go up against here. He's the better goalie, 837 00:43:37.469 --> 00:43:40.869 but I still think this is a spot to fade them. 838 00:43:41.090 --> 00:43:43.199 I like my other hockey play better than this one, 839 00:43:43.280 --> 00:43:46.079 but yeah, I decided to put this one on the card. 840 00:43:46.099 --> 00:43:50.780 Minnesota's very public, 80% of the tickets. Yeah, they got 841 00:43:50.780 --> 00:43:54.920 88% of the money right now too, but I don't 842 00:43:54.980 --> 00:43:57.139 put much weight into that. I mean, it's a slight 843 00:43:57.179 --> 00:43:59.170 disparity there, but I think they're definitely going to be 844 00:43:59.210 --> 00:44:01.369 a public side. Nobody's going to want to be on 845 00:44:01.409 --> 00:44:05.869 Toronto here. Maybe for good reason, because they're ass. But, yeah, 846 00:44:05.929 --> 00:44:07.289 I mean, I think this might be a spot where 847 00:44:07.309 --> 00:44:11.429 they were able to pull it off. You know, I 848 00:44:11.449 --> 00:44:15.519 don't know. It's a spot play. It's what it is. Yeah, 849 00:44:15.599 --> 00:44:17.260 I think I have pretty much nothing else on that. 850 00:44:17.320 --> 00:44:20.199 Minnesota's about a minus 170 favorite, if you're looking at 851 00:44:20.239 --> 00:44:24.070 their side of the money line. Yeah, so it's a 852 00:44:24.170 --> 00:44:28.460 split bet for me on Toronto there. All right, Colorado 853 00:44:28.500 --> 00:44:31.260 and Ottawa. Colorado's not favored by much in this one, 854 00:44:31.280 --> 00:44:34.119 so that's interesting. Ottawa's getting a lot of respect here. 855 00:44:34.800 --> 00:44:36.630 Still don't know if Omar is going to be back 856 00:44:36.929 --> 00:44:38.969 for Ottawa or not. He was supposed to be back 857 00:44:39.010 --> 00:44:41.929 in the last game. Didn't happen. I don't know if 858 00:44:41.969 --> 00:44:45.179 he's back here or not. Colorado's coming off that blowout 859 00:44:45.199 --> 00:44:48.900 win of Toronto a couple of days ago. or over Toronto, 860 00:44:48.940 --> 00:44:50.380 I should say. But I don't really think they're going 861 00:44:50.400 --> 00:44:53.360 to overlook Ottawa because Ottawa is playing well. So I 862 00:44:53.400 --> 00:44:55.380 think you're going to get both teams showing up here, 863 00:44:55.619 --> 00:44:58.420 would be my guess. Both teams have pretty good records here. 864 00:44:58.440 --> 00:45:02.230 They're both playing well. Ottawa lost their last game to 865 00:45:02.309 --> 00:45:05.489 Washington here at home. That's kind of a big game, though. 866 00:45:05.510 --> 00:45:08.809 I mean, Washington's a solid team. So I don't know. 867 00:45:09.050 --> 00:45:11.030 Which

team is going to perform better in this game? 868 00:45:11.210 --> 00:45:13.909 It's hard to say. Normally, I do want to back 869 00:45:13.949 --> 00:45:15.690 the team that's coming off a loss more so than 870 00:45:15.710 --> 00:45:19.449 the team that's coming off a blowout win but that 871 00:45:19.469 --> 00:45:22.070 was a tough game against Washington so I could see 872 00:45:22.150 --> 00:45:27.110 arguments for Colorado here too but Colorado's a really public 873 00:45:27.170 --> 00:45:29.869 side and in a way it looks too easy to 874 00:45:29.929 --> 00:45:32.829 play them because they got more of the name recognition 875 00:45:33.090 --> 00:45:36.239 people know they were the number one team in the 876 00:45:36.280 --> 00:45:39.960 regular season last year and whatever Ottawa might still be 877 00:45:39.980 --> 00:45:42.579 a little bit under the radar Colorado 80% of the 878 00:45:42.860 --> 00:45:45.320 tickets 88% of the money on them they're about minus 879 00:45:45.320 --> 00:45:52.260 120% I'd probably lean Ottawa and just fade a public 880 00:45:52.300 --> 00:45:54.309 Colorado team. It almost looks a little bit too easy 881 00:45:54.349 --> 00:45:58.170 to play. Ottawa is going to be better off. Well, actually, 882 00:45:58.190 --> 00:46:00.449 I don't know, because if Olmark comes back, he might 883 00:46:00.469 --> 00:46:03.320 be rusty in his first game back. So that's the concern. 884 00:46:05.719 --> 00:46:09.460 Olmark is obviously better in the long run, but I 885 00:46:09.480 --> 00:46:10.719 don't know if he's going to be back or not, 886 00:46:10.760 --> 00:46:12.480 but that's something to know in this game. That's a 887 00:46:12.539 --> 00:46:14.880 big concern. Question mark here. And if he is back, 888 00:46:14.940 --> 00:46:17.429 maybe you do just want to wait and not actually 889 00:46:17.510 --> 00:46:20.130 back him because he might be rusty in his first game. 890 00:46:20.170 --> 00:46:23.150 So that is a concern. We'll see what happens. I mean, 891 00:46:23.190 --> 00:46:25.550 I'm going to lean Ottawa still, but I don't love 892 00:46:25.590 --> 00:46:28.059 that game at all. Yeah, that's a tough game to 893 00:46:28.099 --> 00:46:31.510 figure out. washington at new jersey this is an interesting 894 00:46:31.550 --> 00:46:34.150 game as well this is not a bad game washington 895 00:46:34.190 --> 00:46:36.010 is coming up that win over ottawa that i just 896 00:46:36.050 --> 00:46:38.429 mentioned they beat florida the game before that they played 897 00:46:38.550 --> 00:46:41.889 dallas close the game before that so washington has played 898 00:46:42.030 --> 00:46:45.989 three pretty tough games in a row here um most 899 00:46:46.030 --> 00:46:47.949 teams have at least a little bit of rest here 900 00:46:47.989 --> 00:46:51.900 in hockey today because um they've had some days off 901 00:46:51.940 --> 00:46:54.960 although new jersey not really for them though i mean 902 00:46:54.980 --> 00:46:58.170 they're playing a uh Fourth game in six days, all 903 00:46:58.190 --> 00:47:00.510 in different cities, and they're returning home from a road trip. 904 00:47:00.590 --> 00:47:03.480 So I don't really like the setup for New Jersey here, 905 00:47:03.519 --> 00:47:05.780 even though they lost their last game against Winnipeg, but 906 00:47:06.159 --> 00:47:08.579 that also busted a five-game win streak for them. And 907 00:47:08.619 --> 00:47:10.699 you know I talk about when a team loses a 908 00:47:10.739 --> 00:47:12.760 win streak, a lot of times it does hang them over. 909 00:47:13.280 --> 00:47:15.369 Plus the return home from a road trip here, although 910 00:47:15.389 --> 00:47:18.789 the road trip was not that long. It was not 911 00:47:18.829 --> 00:47:21.650 even a week long, but still they went as far 912 00:47:21.690 --> 00:47:24.630 as Winnipeg on that road trip. So returning home from 913 00:47:24.670 --> 00:47:28.340 a road trip like that, Maybe you do get caught 914 00:47:28.400 --> 00:47:30.940 a little bit, although New Jersey actually did lose at 915 00:47:31.019 --> 00:47:34.119 Washington back in October, which was, I believe, the only 916 00:47:34.159 --> 00:47:38.460 time they played them so far this year. Tough call, 917 00:47:38.480 --> 00:47:41.239 but I think overall I'd rather probably fade the team 918 00:47:41.280 --> 00:47:43.019 and start turning over from a road trip, especially when 919 00:47:43.039 --> 00:47:44.920 they have a little bit less rest. So I'd lean 920 00:47:45.000 --> 00:47:48.019 Washington here. The money does seem to agree with this. 921 00:47:48.079 --> 00:47:50.699 New Jersey, 90% of the tickets on them, 67% of 922 00:47:50.719 --> 00:47:54.829 the money on Washington. Money is coming in on Washington. 923 00:47:54.889 --> 00:47:58.329 New Jersey is about a minus 150-something favorite here. So 924 00:47:58.369 --> 00:48:00.239 you get maybe a little bit of value on maybe 925 00:48:00.409 --> 00:48:02.380 a Washington team that might be a little bit under 926 00:48:02.389 --> 00:48:05.719 the radar right now. New Jersey is much more heralded 927 00:48:06.159 --> 00:48:08.659 of the two teams right now, you know, with Hellebuck 928 00:48:08.800 --> 00:48:12.159 there now especially and whatever. Washington a little bit more 929 00:48:12.199 --> 00:48:14.699 under the radar, but I still don't really want Washington 930 00:48:14.800 --> 00:48:17.989 either because they're coming off of, what was that bang, man? 931 00:48:19.039 --> 00:48:21.239 Just heard a big bang outside. I got to look 932 00:48:21.280 --> 00:48:24.730 at my, I don't, I think I see anything on 933 00:48:24.750 --> 00:48:28.489 my camera. Hold on, let me see. Gotta always look 934 00:48:28.510 --> 00:48:30.929 at my cameras, man. Gotta see what's going on here. 935 00:48:32.909 --> 00:48:35.130 My house might be haunted, to be honest. Hold on, 936 00:48:35.159 --> 00:48:39.460 let me take a look. What was that bang, dude?

Unless, 937 00:48:39.519 --> 00:48:41.079 you know, it's bad weather. I think it might be 938 00:48:41.159 --> 00:48:45.320 raining out. Something just fell, maybe. No, I don't know. 939 00:48:45.340 --> 00:48:46.409 I don't know if you can hear me. I'm looking 940 00:48:46.429 --> 00:48:48.789 out front right now. Like, I just heard this huge 941 00:48:48.889 --> 00:48:57.300 bang out front. I'm not seeing anything. That kind of 942 00:48:57.360 --> 00:48:59.739 freaked me out, though, I'll tell you that. Sounded like 943 00:48:59.760 --> 00:49:04.769 it was just outside, out front, so I don't know, man. Anyway, 944 00:49:05.429 --> 00:49:08.510 what was I talking about? Yeah, Washington's the less heralded 945 00:49:08.650 --> 00:49:10.030 team here right now. Might be a little bit under 946 00:49:10.050 --> 00:49:13.110 the radar, but I don't exactly want them off of 947 00:49:13.130 --> 00:49:15.909 this run of big games that they've had, so I'm 948 00:49:15.949 --> 00:49:18.610 staying away from that game, too. You can make the 949 00:49:18.670 --> 00:49:21.099 argument for the over in that game. Both teams kind 950 00:49:21.139 --> 00:49:24.199 of in questionable spots in a way. Washington might be 951 00:49:24.219 --> 00:49:26.840 a little bit tired, and then New Jersey, maybe some 952 00:49:26.880 --> 00:49:30.659 lack of focus for them in the return home spot, 953 00:49:30.699 --> 00:49:34.199 so tiredness and or lack of focus can have a 954 00:49:34.239 --> 00:49:36.199 negative impact on the deep ends, and the money is 955 00:49:36.239 --> 00:49:39.900 definitely agreeing with the over in that game, so... You know, 956 00:49:39.920 --> 00:49:42.219 we'll see how that goes, but the total is six, 957 00:49:42.260 --> 00:49:44.929 six and a half there. So it's somewhat on the 958 00:49:44.989 --> 00:49:47.309 higher side there. So maybe the money is kind of 959 00:49:47.369 --> 00:49:49.670 agreeing with me on that as well. It seems like 960 00:49:49.690 --> 00:49:52.010 it is. So yeah, the over makes some sense there. 961 00:49:53.130 --> 00:49:56.650 Tampa Bay at Columbus. I would lean towards Columbus in 962 00:49:56.670 --> 00:49:58.809 this one. Tampa Bay looks way too easy to play. 963 00:49:59.280 --> 00:50:01.639 but they're on a back-to-back, and they looked really good 964 00:50:02.239 --> 00:50:06.860 destroying Buffalo yesterday, 8-3. Now they're on a back-to-back playing 965 00:50:06.900 --> 00:50:09.679 a Columbus team. It's not really that good. Tampa Bay 966 00:50:09.739 --> 00:50:11.619 only has Detroit next. I don't know if that's that 967 00:50:11.659 --> 00:50:13.900 big of a deal, and they beat Detroit not long ago, 968 00:50:13.940 --> 00:50:17.460 but back-to-back, that Buffalo game was the bigger game for them. 969 00:50:17.480 --> 00:50:19.539 They played well in the game. You're going to get 970 00:50:19.619 --> 00:50:21.699 Hill to be in net for Tampa Bay this time, 971 00:50:21.719 --> 00:50:25.050 and He's a downgrade, even though Vasilevsky looks like he's 972 00:50:25.070 --> 00:50:27.840 kind of getting old and isn't as good now. But, yeah, 973 00:50:27.929 --> 00:50:30.739 it is still a drop-off to Hildeby here. He will 974 00:50:30.760 --> 00:50:33.719 be the goalie here because it is a back-to-back. So, 975 00:50:34.019 --> 00:50:35.960 I don't think it's a great spot for the Lightning here. 976 00:50:35.980 --> 00:50:38.400 It also looks way too easy to play them at 977 00:50:38.420 --> 00:50:41.860 a small price. But, you know, the back-to-back is factored 978 00:50:41.880 --> 00:50:44.300 into the price, right? Like, Tampa Bay is a very 979 00:50:44.360 --> 00:50:47.059 small favorite here, whereas if they had any rest at all, 980 00:50:47.099 --> 00:50:50.699 they'd probably be like minus 140 on this price. But instead, 981 00:50:50.719 --> 00:50:54.519 they're like minus 115. Because of the back-to-back, but all 982 00:50:54.539 --> 00:50:57.110 that being said, I'd still lean towards Columbus as the 983 00:50:57.170 --> 00:51:00.170 slight home underdog here. Columbus had a lot of time 984 00:51:00.210 --> 00:51:04.090 off before their last game. Also, Columbus just lost at Buffalo, 985 00:51:04.130 --> 00:51:05.880 by the way, two games ago. So people will look 986 00:51:05.889 --> 00:51:08.820 at that. Oh, my God, if Columbus got destroyed by 987 00:51:08.880 --> 00:51:12.000 Buffalo in Buffalo and Tampa Bay just went into Buffalo 988 00:51:12.039 --> 00:51:15.980 and destroyed Buffalo, then obviously Tampa Bay will destroy Columbus. 989 00:51:16.340 --> 00:51:18.869 You know what I mean? That's what the public is 990 00:51:18.889 --> 00:51:22.469 going to think, basically. You can't handicap that way. Everything's 991 00:51:22.510 --> 00:51:26.070 an individual situation. Columbus just lost pretty ugly at home 992 00:51:26.090 --> 00:51:30.139 to Florida in their last game. Columbus has the rest here, which, yes, 993 00:51:30.280 --> 00:51:32.719 it is factored into the line, but I would only 994 00:51:32.760 --> 00:51:36.500 take Columbus in this one. Tampa Bay, 82% of the tickets, 995 00:51:36.519 --> 00:51:39.500 so obviously they're public, although 94% of the money on them. 996 00:51:40.110 --> 00:51:42.449 I don't know what to say about that, but I 997 00:51:42.829 --> 00:51:45.250 would still fade them in this game and consider them 998 00:51:45.269 --> 00:51:48.969 to be public here. You know, a lot of it 999 00:51:49.030 --> 00:51:53.010 is a little bit of his intuition. You have to 1000 00:51:53.050 --> 00:51:55.280 kind of interpret the market in kind of your own 1001 00:51:55.340 --> 00:51:58.119 way here. So I do rely on my situation a 1002 00:51:58.239 --> 00:52:01.079 decent amount, unless there's like some obvious market read going 1003 00:52:01.139 --> 00:52:04.739 against me, you know, or whatever. Or going with me, 1004 00:52:04.800 --> 00:52:07.889 you know. But yeah, I would lean towards Columbus. Tampa 1005

00:52:07.909 --> 00:52:09.329 Bay dropped from minus 124 down to minus 115, so. 1006 00:52:12.809 --> 00:52:15.530 The line is heading in the Columbus direction against the public, 1007 00:52:15.570 --> 00:52:17.679 so it does look like there is money back in 1008 00:52:17.699 --> 00:52:22.099 Columbus there. I do not disagree with that one. Yeah, Columbus, 1009 00:52:22.400 --> 00:52:24.760 you'll still get them as a slight underdog most likely. 1010 00:52:24.800 --> 00:52:26.099 That's how I'd play that if I was going to 1011 00:52:26.119 --> 00:52:30.340 do anything. We got a Hulu doubleheader here. Detroit and 1012 00:52:30.440 --> 00:52:33.300 Florida is the first of those two games. Detroit is 1013 00:52:33.340 --> 00:52:35.849 on a four-game losing streak, so you're probably going to 1014 00:52:35.889 --> 00:52:37.289 get effort out of them here. I mean, you're not 1015 00:52:37.309 --> 00:52:40.570 going to overlook Florida either, although Detroit just played in 1016 00:52:40.610 --> 00:52:45.679 Florida on November 2nd and beat them 5-3, so Florida 1017 00:52:45.699 --> 00:52:50.760 might have something to say about that here. Florida might 1018 00:52:50.780 --> 00:52:54.039 have the adjustments to make here from that loss at 1019 00:52:54.079 --> 00:52:57.260 home to Detroit. Detroit is not going to overlook Florida, 1020 00:52:57.440 --> 00:52:59.639 even though they already beat them once. You're on a 1021 00:52:59.699 --> 00:53:03.500 four-game losing streak. You're going to play whoever's in front 1022 00:53:03.519 --> 00:53:06.519 of you and try to beat them. Florida bounced back 1023 00:53:06.719 --> 00:53:09.610 with their win over Columbus last time, but They're coming 1024 00:53:09.630 --> 00:53:12.800 home from a road trip, so I don't exactly love that. 1025 00:53:12.860 --> 00:53:15.099 Even though it was a quick road trip, they didn't 1026 00:53:15.119 --> 00:53:17.900 really go that far geographically and mostly stayed on the 1027 00:53:18.000 --> 00:53:22.619 eastern shore, on the east coast for the most part, 1028 00:53:22.659 --> 00:53:25.699 except when they went to Columbus. But, yeah, I mean, 1029 00:53:25.780 --> 00:53:27.699 I still don't love it. Plus, it's a fourth game 1030 00:53:27.739 --> 00:53:30.940 in six days for them. Return home spot, possible a 1031 00:53:31.000 --> 00:53:34.429 little bit of an overlook spot maybe for them here, 1032 00:53:34.469 --> 00:53:36.969 even though Detroit is still an eastern conference team, but 1033 00:53:37.469 --> 00:53:41.460 not a particularly good one. Yeah, I mean, I'm going 1034 00:53:41.480 --> 00:53:44.860 to lead Detroit here overall, but again, it's not a 1035 00:53:44.880 --> 00:53:48.099 game I really have a strong feel for. Florida, 93% 1036 00:53:48.099 --> 00:53:50.480 of the tickets, 90% of the money on them, so 1037 00:53:50.500 --> 00:53:53.460 they're a very public side. So fading them may very 1038 00:53:53.480 --> 00:53:55.449 well make sense here. It's also not that high of 1039 00:53:55.469 --> 00:53:59.190 a total. So doing like a split puck line, money 1040 00:53:59.230 --> 00:54:02.170 line type of thing with Detroit might make sense. Maybe 1041 00:54:02.190 --> 00:54:05.989 they can get within one goal here. Minus 160-something is 1042 00:54:06.010 --> 00:54:09.030 the number on Florida here. Yeah, my lean in that 1043 00:54:09.050 --> 00:54:11.949 game is towards Detroit, probably a split that money line, 1044 00:54:12.030 --> 00:54:17.809 puck line situation there. Buffalo at Chicago. Buffalo is on 1045 00:54:17.829 --> 00:54:22.550 a back-to-back, but they got hammered yesterday, man, 8-3. They 1046 00:54:22.570 --> 00:54:25.050 will switch goalies to Ellis, and, you know, that hasn't 1047 00:54:25.090 --> 00:54:28.219 exactly gone that well recently. Lukanen is their main goalie, 1048 00:54:28.239 --> 00:54:31.659 and he played yesterday, but still, it can't get much 1049 00:54:31.719 --> 00:54:33.960 worse than what happened yesterday, man. So even though, yes, 1050 00:54:33.980 --> 00:54:37.110 they're on a back-to-back, They do have a big game 1051 00:54:37.190 --> 00:54:40.670 on deck against Dallas. Yesterday was big as well against Tampa, 1052 00:54:40.710 --> 00:54:42.809 so you could make the argument this is a sandwich spot. 1053 00:54:43.429 --> 00:54:47.050 And the back-to-back obviously doesn't seem great, but I don't 1054 00:54:47.110 --> 00:54:50.010 really hate Buffalo necessarily in this spot because they looked 1055 00:54:50.110 --> 00:54:52.719 so bad yesterday. And going out on the road, I 1056 00:54:52.719 --> 00:54:55.460 don't think you're going to look ahead after you got 1057 00:54:55.619 --> 00:54:58.900 blasted in your last game, 8-3. You might just not 1058 00:54:59.000 --> 00:55:02.539 overlook anybody after a game like that. And going out 1059 00:55:02.599 --> 00:55:05.139 on the road... Might be good, you know, you put 1060 00:55:05.460 --> 00:55:08.219 the home distractions aside and just go focus on hockey. 1061 00:55:08.679 --> 00:55:11.769 At least for them, it's a big-time step down against Chicago. 1062 00:55:11.809 --> 00:55:16.110 But Chicago, I mean, they should, you'd think, be focused 1063 00:55:16.130 --> 00:55:19.329 because they got blown out in their last game by Carolina, 1064 00:55:19.670 --> 00:55:21.809 and they've had a bunch of days off, four days off, 1065 00:55:21.829 --> 00:55:24.199 and they're on a six-game losing streak. So you might say, well, 1066 00:55:25.420 --> 00:55:27.960 you know, Toe, don't you always say that when you're 1067 00:55:27.980 --> 00:55:30.300 on a long losing streak, you can bust that losing 1068 00:55:30.320 --> 00:55:31.780 streak by having a lot of time off, and that 1069 00:55:31.800 --> 00:55:35.159 will help you. Yes, I agree. I do say that. So, yes, 1070 00:55:35.219 --> 00:55:37.800 that break came at a good time for Chicago. The 1071 00:55:37.840 --> 00:55:41.050 problem is they are still in a

return home spot here. So, 1072 00:55:41.130 --> 00:55:42.809 I don't know. I mean, they started their road trip 1073 00:55:42.849 --> 00:55:46.670 last Monday. They finished it on Saturday. And, yes, they've technically, 1074 00:55:46.710 --> 00:55:50.650 I guess, had time at home to get whatever they 1075 00:55:50.670 --> 00:55:54.250 need to get done done. But sometimes you get too 1076 00:55:54.349 --> 00:55:56.769 settled in at home, too. And that extra time off 1077 00:55:58.269 --> 00:56:00.480 while settling back in at home can actually hurt you 1078 00:56:00.500 --> 00:56:03.070 a little bit. So, I don't know, man. I mean, 1079 00:56:03.090 --> 00:56:05.250 you're going to get value on Buffalo because Florida has, 1080 00:56:05.269 --> 00:56:07.550 I mean, excuse me, because Chicago has such a huge 1081 00:56:07.710 --> 00:56:11.329 rest edge here. Buffalo is still a pretty big favorite, though, 1082 00:56:11.369 --> 00:56:14.570 around minus 150 on the road here. That's how bad 1083 00:56:14.610 --> 00:56:19.090 Chicago is in the odds maker's eyes. 83% of the tickets, 1084 00:56:19.090 --> 00:56:23.510 90% of the cash on Buffalo. So, I don't know. 1085 00:56:23.530 --> 00:56:25.429 The money may or may not be on Buffalo in 1086 00:56:25.469 --> 00:56:29.239 this game. It's hard to tell. They're definitely a public side. Really, 1087 00:56:29.280 --> 00:56:31.760 really tough call. I mean, Chicago has the rest edge. 1088 00:56:31.820 --> 00:56:36.059 The rest might break. They're losing momentum. I am almost 1089 00:56:36.239 --> 00:56:37.619 never going to be on a team that's returning home 1090 00:56:37.639 --> 00:56:41.840 from a road trip, though. And Buffalo looked horrific yesterday. But, 1091 00:56:41.920 --> 00:56:43.880 you know, Buffalo does have a bigger game after this. 1092 00:56:44.000 --> 00:56:46.159 This is such a difficult call, dude. It really is. 1093 00:56:48.699 --> 00:56:50.329 I don't even know what to say about this game. 1094 00:56:50.389 --> 00:56:53.190 I mean, my lean in this game was... I was 1095 00:56:53.309 --> 00:56:55.969 thinking Buffalo would be the way I'd be leaning in 1096 00:56:55.989 --> 00:56:58.530 this game. Maybe I will still say that. I mean... 1097 00:57:00.070 --> 00:57:02.210 it's usually not a bad idea to go against the 1098 00:57:02.230 --> 00:57:04.070 team returning home from a, from a road trip. But 1099 00:57:04.110 --> 00:57:06.710 this is, this is the one that I like the 1100 00:57:06.849 --> 00:57:09.789 least out of the teams returning home from road trips here. Yeah. 1101 00:57:09.809 --> 00:57:11.510 This one is by far the one that I like 1102 00:57:11.530 --> 00:57:15.880 the least, uh, as far as fading that team. I mean, um, yeah, 1103 00:57:15.920 --> 00:57:18.659 I like fading the other ones better and yeah, we 1104 00:57:18.679 --> 00:57:21.199 do still have one left. Uh, and it's not this game. 1105 00:57:21.239 --> 00:57:24.440 I don't believe Winnipeg and Dallas, uh, Winnipeg's on a 1106 00:57:24.539 --> 00:57:28.000 four game winning streak, believe it or not. Um, Not 1107 00:57:28.039 --> 00:57:30.179 that great of a team, but some nice wins in here. 1108 00:57:30.199 --> 00:57:33.400 They just beat New Jersey after beating Tampa Bay. Those 1109 00:57:33.440 --> 00:57:35.820 are some nice wins. Now they're going out on the 1110 00:57:35.920 --> 00:57:40.639 road where they have not been as good. But they're 1111 00:57:40.659 --> 00:57:43.050 not going to overlook Dallas. The problem is they might 1112 00:57:43.110 --> 00:57:45.170 run out of steam here because they're playing a third 1113 00:57:45.250 --> 00:57:47.969 big game in a row. So that is the concern. 1114 00:57:48.909 --> 00:57:50.869 Usually you are focused to start a road trip. They're 1115 00:57:50.889 --> 00:57:53.929 not going to overlook Dallas. Yes, you'll get a focused team, 1116 00:57:53.989 --> 00:57:58.679 but the fatigue might set in here, you know. And 1117 00:57:58.699 --> 00:58:00.719 Dallas is a team that kind of likes to grind 1118 00:58:00.780 --> 00:58:03.570 you and slow the game down and play pretty physical 1119 00:58:03.590 --> 00:58:06.110 and play defense, so that's not exactly what you want 1120 00:58:06.130 --> 00:58:09.409 to run into here. Dallas has had four days off. 1121 00:58:09.829 --> 00:58:12.190 I haven't played since Saturday, and they played okay in 1122 00:58:12.210 --> 00:58:15.559 their last game against San Jose. The question is, is 1123 00:58:15.599 --> 00:58:18.500 that time off going to break any winning momentum they have? 1124 00:58:18.559 --> 00:58:20.159 I'm not so sure. I mean, they've won three of 1125 00:58:20.179 --> 00:58:23.960 their last four games, so maybe it'll disrupt their momentum 1126 00:58:23.980 --> 00:58:27.400 here a little bit. They only have Buffalo on deck, 1127 00:58:27.420 --> 00:58:29.719 so I'm not convinced they're necessarily going to look ahead 1128 00:58:29.739 --> 00:58:32.940 to that game because Buffalo's been pretty mediocre as well. 1129 00:58:33.860 --> 00:58:36.179 And this is a divisional game, at least I'm pretty sure. 1130 00:58:36.280 --> 00:58:38.639 So I kind of like Dallas in this one, but 1131 00:58:38.739 --> 00:58:41.230 it is kind of a high price on them. And 1132 00:58:41.369 --> 00:58:43.989 the money initially came in against them because they dropped 1133 00:58:44.010 --> 00:58:48.829 from minus 187 down to about minus 160-something. And the 1134 00:58:48.929 --> 00:58:53.000 sharp books have it lower than the professional books, so... 1135 00:58:53.739 --> 00:58:55.260 You've got to kind of figure out how to read 1136 00:58:55.300 --> 00:58:59.230 that because the sharp books like the Vegas books, the 1137 00:58:59.269 --> 00:59:01.829 one that starts with a C here and the SP 1138 00:59:01.969 --> 00:59:05.929 one here, those are books that cater to the sharp. 1139 00:59:06.050 --> 00:59:07.949 So they might tell you where more of the sharp 1140

00:59:08.030 --> 00:59:10.210 money is if if that book has a number that's 1141 00:59:10.829 --> 00:59:15.139 skewed in one particular direction but what i will also 1142 00:59:15.199 --> 00:59:17.860 say is that the public books almost are always skewed 1143 00:59:17.880 --> 00:59:20.679 more to the favorite though so seeing the skew at 1144 00:59:20.699 --> 00:59:25.070 the sharper books be towards the underdog That's usually the case, 1145 00:59:25.110 --> 00:59:26.949 so it doesn't really mean everything. But I think in 1146 00:59:26.989 --> 00:59:30.309 this case, probably it does say something. I do think 1147 00:59:30.349 --> 00:59:33.889 that it does look like the professional money is coming 1148 00:59:33.929 --> 00:59:36.960 in on Winnipeg here. Although we do see 82% of 1149 00:59:37.000 --> 00:59:39.960 the tickets and 91% of the cash on Dallas. I 1150 00:59:40.000 --> 00:59:42.500 still think I probably prefer Dallas here. This run of 1151 00:59:42.559 --> 00:59:45.420 games for Winnipeg, I don't know. I'm not sure they're 1152 00:59:45.440 --> 00:59:47.199 going to be able to keep up that effort yet 1153 00:59:47.260 --> 00:59:50.980 again here. I don't know, against a rested Dallas team, 1154 00:59:51.000 --> 00:59:53.400 although obviously you're going to pay for that rest scenario. 1155 00:59:53.880 --> 00:59:57.420 You're paying a high price for Dallas, so I don't know. 1156 00:59:57.500 --> 00:59:59.440 Those are my thoughts on that game. It's difficult to 1157 00:59:59.480 --> 01:00:01.420 figure out. Dallas is a public side, though, and if 1158 01:00:01.440 --> 01:00:05.179 you want Dallas, you've got to basically get it down 1159 01:00:05.219 --> 01:00:07.719 and play them to win in regulation, basically, but it's 1160 01:00:07.760 --> 01:00:11.719 a little bit more tricky. Well, not only because it's 1161 01:00:11.739 --> 01:00:14.480 a public side, but Dallas plays some lower scoring games, 1162 01:00:14.900 --> 01:00:16.530 and this is a lower total, so it's going to 1163 01:00:16.550 --> 01:00:19.289 be a little bit more difficult for them to get 1164 01:00:19.329 --> 01:00:22.150 you that win as a favorite there. But yeah, I 1165 01:00:22.190 --> 01:00:24.449 don't know. Maybe Dallas to win in regulation there, but 1166 01:00:24.530 --> 01:00:27.969 I don't love the game really at all. As you 1167 01:00:27.989 --> 01:00:29.769 can tell, the next game up is going to be 1168 01:00:29.829 --> 01:00:33.750 one of my plays. I will hydrate and be right back, 1169 01:00:33.769 --> 01:00:35.489 and then I'll hit these last two games. This will 1170 01:00:35.510 --> 01:00:37.230 be my last play that I give out, and then 1171 01:00:37.750 --> 01:00:39.610 there's a little bit of NBA to go over, and 1172 01:00:39.630 --> 01:00:41.909 then there's football. I will be right back. 1173 01:02:01.340 --> 01:02:02.900 Thank you. 1174 01:02:43.900 --> 01:02:48.349 All right. Next game up is my other player. We're 1175 01:02:48.369 --> 01:02:51.210 going to fade Utah. Maybe just because I'm really pissed 1176 01:02:51.269 --> 01:02:53.090 at them about yesterday. But no, I think this is 1177 01:02:53.130 --> 01:02:56.250 a bad spot for Utah for a number of reasons. 1178 01:02:56.349 --> 01:02:58.530 We're going to take the St. Louis Blues in this one. 1179 01:02:59.250 --> 01:03:02.889 Utah is actually returning home from a road trip. You know, 1180 01:03:02.929 --> 01:03:05.849 they did travel back west for yesterday's game. But of course, 1181 01:03:05.869 --> 01:03:09.219 they're on a back-to-back and now returning home from the 1182 01:03:09.300 --> 01:03:13.329 road trip that they've been on since October 29th. They've 1183 01:03:13.349 --> 01:03:16.909 been on the road. This is a long road trip, man. And, 1184 01:03:17.110 --> 01:03:18.750 you know, I don't like it in general. I don't 1185 01:03:18.789 --> 01:03:20.610 like a team returning home from the road like this, 1186 01:03:20.679 --> 01:03:22.619 even though, yes, they came back west here, but they 1187 01:03:22.659 --> 01:03:26.440 still didn't come home yet until now. So I think 1188 01:03:26.460 --> 01:03:30.260 this is bad. Unless, do you think they went home 1189 01:03:30.340 --> 01:03:33.179 between the Ottawa game and the Vegas game? I guess 1190 01:03:33.699 --> 01:03:36.909 maybe they did with a little bit of time in 1191 01:03:36.929 --> 01:03:39.489 between the two. I'm not so sure, but, I mean, 1192 01:03:39.570 --> 01:03:41.940 either way, I don't like it because they're also on 1193 01:03:41.980 --> 01:03:44.659 a back-to-back and played Vegas yesterday, and that was a 1194 01:03:44.820 --> 01:03:48.619 monster game that they still put in an effort and 1195 01:03:48.739 --> 01:03:50.869 almost were able to come back in the game. So 1196 01:03:50.889 --> 01:03:52.530 I think there are just a lot of negatives here 1197 01:03:52.570 --> 01:03:54.469 for them, and if they are indeed returning home from 1198 01:03:54.489 --> 01:03:57.289 the road trip here, that's a negative. It could be 1199 01:03:57.309 --> 01:04:00.730 a distracted spot here, but that Vegas game, you know 1200 01:04:00.869 --> 01:04:02.639 Utah wanted it, and that's why I gave them out 1201 01:04:02.679 --> 01:04:06.000 as a play yesterday. Utah was in a playoff revenge 1202 01:04:06.880 --> 01:04:09.380 mode there because Vegas knocked them out of the playoffs 1203 01:04:09.420 --> 01:04:12.139 last year. That game meant a lot to Utah, and 1204 01:04:12.800 --> 01:04:17.429 they fell behind in the second period is where they 1205 01:04:17.469 --> 01:04:20.670 really fell behind. They almost came back. They cut it 1206 01:04:20.730 --> 01:04:23.070 to 4-3 late, so they were right there in that 1207 01:04:23.130 --> 01:04:25.750 game late, and they gave up one more goal really 1208 01:04:25.789 --> 01:04:29.190 late in the game. That was a huge effort for Utah, 1209 01:04:29.260 --> 01:04:33.639 and it was yesterday. This is a bad spot

for Utah, man. 1210 01:04:34.449 --> 01:04:36.849 No rest here, and I know obviously the no rest 1211 01:04:36.909 --> 01:04:39.369 is factored into the line. I get it. So you 1212 01:04:39.389 --> 01:04:40.949 get a little bit less value on this, but you're 1213 01:04:40.969 --> 01:04:42.949 still getting a St. Louis team that's in the better 1214 01:04:43.010 --> 01:04:47.150 situational spot as an underdog here, and that's pretty much 1215 01:04:47.210 --> 01:04:49.170 all you can really ask for when you're trying to 1216 01:04:49.230 --> 01:04:52.340 find these games to play in hockey here. Give me 1217 01:04:52.360 --> 01:04:55.760 the team in the better spot as an underdog? Okay, yeah, 1218 01:04:55.800 --> 01:04:59.420 I'll take that. St. Louis, they did just beat Detroit, 1219 01:04:59.440 --> 01:05:01.619 which is not a win that's going to make them overconfident. 1220 01:05:02.059 --> 01:05:04.880 It was actually a return home spot, which is interesting. 1221 01:05:05.719 --> 01:05:07.440 So they were in a bad spot, and they still 1222 01:05:07.480 --> 01:05:10.320 won the game against Detroit. What that did, though, is 1223 01:05:10.380 --> 01:05:12.340 it ended a three-game losing streak for them. So I 1224 01:05:12.360 --> 01:05:15.239 think that's going to give them some momentum moving forward. 1225 01:05:16.219 --> 01:05:18.239 They were off yesterday, of course, and now it's a 1226 01:05:18.300 --> 01:05:20.940 single-game road trip to Utah, but I think this is 1227 01:05:20.980 --> 01:05:23.139 a divisional game, so St. Louis is not going to 1228 01:05:23.260 --> 01:05:26.000 overlook Utah, whereas Utah might have a little bit more 1229 01:05:26.019 --> 01:05:28.079 of a tendency to overlook St. Louis here just because 1230 01:05:28.119 --> 01:05:30.699 yesterday's game, even though it was not a divisional game, 1231 01:05:31.179 --> 01:05:34.400 That Vegas game was just so big, and that on 1232 01:05:34.440 --> 01:05:38.469 top of Utah's travel spot. St. Louis, you know, disrupting, 1233 01:05:38.489 --> 01:05:40.650 they're losing momentum in the last game. You pretty much, 1234 01:05:40.949 --> 01:05:43.369 I think, can pretty much be guaranteed they will have 1235 01:05:43.449 --> 01:05:47.610 focus on this game. Let's do it. Yeah, let's take St. 1236 01:05:47.670 --> 01:05:49.909 Louis here. And also Utah, by the way, they're switching 1237 01:05:49.969 --> 01:05:53.429 goalies back to Vemelka here. And they had switched away 1238 01:05:53.510 --> 01:05:57.809 from him and started using Kosa because their goalie situation 1239 01:05:57.849 --> 01:06:02.260 has been bad, dude. Vemelka is... Typically, he's their better goalie, 1240 01:06:02.280 --> 01:06:04.000 and he was pretty good to start the season for 1241 01:06:04.039 --> 01:06:07.539 the most part. But recently, he's been bad. And he's 1242 01:06:07.579 --> 01:06:09.679 going to be in net here, I'm assuming, because it's 1243 01:06:09.719 --> 01:06:13.949 a back-to-back. And Kosa played yesterday. Vemelka back in net. 1244 01:06:14.130 --> 01:06:17.469 I believe, if I'm not mistaken, Utah is 1-5 in 1245 01:06:17.489 --> 01:06:20.750 his last six starts. So Utah is losing all these 1246 01:06:20.809 --> 01:06:24.309 Vemelka games here. That's not good. So, yeah, we're going 1247 01:06:24.329 --> 01:06:27.659 to fade him as well. goalie here yeah so let 1248 01:06:27.679 --> 01:06:29.139 me see let me make sure i'm right about that 1249 01:06:29.179 --> 01:06:32.820 they lost the last three starts of his yeah um 1250 01:06:33.480 --> 01:06:37.019 they've lost uh yeah i think for at least four 1251 01:06:37.059 --> 01:06:39.360 of his last five they've lost here yeah is what 1252 01:06:39.400 --> 01:06:41.360 it is yeah i think i think they're one of 1253 01:06:41.500 --> 01:06:43.440 four in his last five starts is what it is 1254 01:06:43.880 --> 01:06:46.510 so yeah we'll fade him here i don't think any 1255 01:06:46.530 --> 01:06:49.920 of those games even went to overtime either so Things 1256 01:06:49.960 --> 01:06:52.760 have not gone well recently with Vemelka in net, even 1257 01:06:52.780 --> 01:06:54.579 though he was decent at the beginning of the season. 1258 01:06:54.980 --> 01:06:57.659 We'll fade him here. We'll fade Utah here. We'll take St. 1259 01:06:57.739 --> 01:06:58.079 Louis. 1260 01:06:58.559 --> 01:07:00.679 And the money is agreeing with me on this. Utah 1261 01:07:01.079 --> 01:07:04.300 is 85% of the tickets. They've already dropped from minus 1262 01:07:04.300 --> 01:07:06.880 130 down to about minus 120. So you can see 1263 01:07:07.440 --> 01:07:09.949 the money has come in and has gone against the 1264 01:07:10.010 --> 01:07:13.730 public Utah side here. That's reverse line movement. That's what 1265 01:07:13.750 --> 01:07:15.869 you want to see. You just don't want to You 1266 01:07:15.889 --> 01:07:17.650 don't want to chase to the extent where you're getting 1267 01:07:17.670 --> 01:07:19.269 a really bad number here. But I think as long 1268 01:07:19.289 --> 01:07:22.090 as you're getting St. Louis at plus money, I think 1269 01:07:22.130 --> 01:07:26.030 this is good. 76% of the cash on St. Louis. 1270 01:07:26.110 --> 01:07:28.860 The money is coming in on that side. The real 1271 01:07:28.929 --> 01:07:32.079 money is on St. Louis and opposing the public here. 1272 01:07:32.159 --> 01:07:36.619 So let's do it. Let's take the Blues. And that 1273 01:07:36.659 --> 01:07:38.480 is the last play I will give out on the 1274 01:07:38.500 --> 01:07:41.750 show here. We do have one more. Hockey game that's 1275 01:07:41.849 --> 01:07:44.469 the back end of the doubleheader on Hulu, which is 1276 01:07:44.510 --> 01:07:48.329 the Islanders at the Kings. The Islanders, they're staying in 1277 01:07:48.369 --> 01:07:50.550 California for this one because they were already out there. 1278 01:07:50.570 --> 01:07:54.230 They just lost in a shootout to San Jose. Islanders 1279

01:07:54.250 --> 01:07:56.110 have had a couple of days off, which might help 1280 01:07:56.170 --> 01:07:59.170 them disrupt their momentum because they've lost four games in 1281 01:07:59.210 --> 01:08:03.219 a row now, but three of them are really good teams. Edmonton, Carolina, 1282 01:08:03.260 --> 01:08:05.860 New Jersey, and they played Minnesota the game before that 1283 01:08:06.659 --> 01:08:08.659 into overtime. They had a bunch of big games in 1284 01:08:08.679 --> 01:08:11.559 a row, so It's not really that surprising they lost 1285 01:08:11.579 --> 01:08:14.400 to San Jose after that run of games where they 1286 01:08:14.420 --> 01:08:17.659 played tough, and then after that New Jersey overtime game, 1287 01:08:17.680 --> 01:08:19.319 they had to go all the way to the West Coast. 1288 01:08:19.640 --> 01:08:22.220 It was not a good spot, and I give out 1289 01:08:22.279 --> 01:08:25.300 a lean on San Jose in that game. Will the 1290 01:08:25.399 --> 01:08:28.119 Islanders bounce back now that they're adjusted to the Pacific 1291 01:08:28.159 --> 01:08:30.039 Coast and they've had a couple of days off here? 1292 01:08:30.699 --> 01:08:33.560 They might. I mean, those days off might disrupt their momentum, 1293 01:08:33.579 --> 01:08:35.520 so I don't hate the spot for the Islanders here. 1294 01:08:36.319 --> 01:08:38.199 I still think the Kings might be better than the 1295 01:08:38.319 --> 01:08:40.699 record looks, though. And the Kings are sitting at home, 1296 01:08:40.720 --> 01:08:42.140 and they've lost two games in a row at home. 1297 01:08:42.180 --> 01:08:45.500 And they're coming off a shutout loss at home to Nashville. 1298 01:08:45.520 --> 01:08:47.000 And you know I talk about this a lot. When 1299 01:08:47.020 --> 01:08:49.090 a team gets shut out at home, a lot of 1300 01:08:49.119 --> 01:08:51.909 times they bounce back in their next game. So both 1301 01:08:51.949 --> 01:08:54.310 teams are in positive spots here, as far as I 1302 01:08:54.329 --> 01:08:57.949 can tell. So, makes this a tough read. The money 1303 01:08:58.010 --> 01:09:00.840 is coming in on the Islanders, though. 60% of tickets 1304 01:09:00.880 --> 01:09:03.300 are on the Kings but does that make any sense 1305 01:09:04.539 --> 01:09:07.119 the Kings are what like 5-9 and whatever like why 1306 01:09:07.149 --> 01:09:09.729 would the public be on the Kings as a favorite 1307 01:09:09.750 --> 01:09:12.729 here when the Islanders I think are above 500 that 1308 01:09:12.750 --> 01:09:15.010 doesn't make sense to me I don't think the Kings 1309 01:09:15.050 --> 01:09:18.449 are actually going to be a public side here My 1310 01:09:18.489 --> 01:09:20.750 read on this game would tell me otherwise. It makes 1311 01:09:20.789 --> 01:09:22.829 no sense. I can't see why the public would be 1312 01:09:22.850 --> 01:09:26.109 on the Kings here. Doesn't make any sense to me, 1313 01:09:26.170 --> 01:09:28.270 but we see 60% of the tickets on the Kings. 1314

01:09:28.899 --> 01:09:30.479 Do what you want with that info, whether you think 1315 01:09:30.520 --> 01:09:34.220 it's actually accurate. 90% of the money on the Islanders. 1316 01:09:34.880 --> 01:09:39.680 Kings are around minus 125 here. The money is coming 1317 01:09:39.720 --> 01:09:41.840 in on the under, and I don't hate the under. 1318 01:09:42.760 --> 01:09:44.699 With both teams in bounce back spots, you might see 1319 01:09:44.720 --> 01:09:48.470 more defensive focus here. If you can get under six, 1320 01:09:48.670 --> 01:09:51.369 I mean, that kind of makes sense. Five and a 1321 01:09:51.430 --> 01:09:54.659 half is definitely worse. Any half goal you get, it 1322 01:09:55.180 --> 01:09:57.819 matters in hockey, man. But the under is always a 1323 01:09:57.840 --> 01:10:00.720 concern in hockey because there's so many empty net goals. Now, 1324 01:10:00.760 --> 01:10:03.260 I always hate that shit, but this is a game 1325 01:10:03.279 --> 01:10:05.619 where my lean in this game would probably be the under. 1326 01:10:06.199 --> 01:10:10.470 And the money is saying the Islanders. It's a tough call. 1327 01:10:10.590 --> 01:10:13.930 It really is. I kind of like the Kings in 1328 01:10:13.970 --> 01:10:17.159 this game. I think both teams are in positive spots. 1329 01:10:17.279 --> 01:10:21.020 And the fact that the Kings are favored with the 1330 01:10:21.060 --> 01:10:23.319 worst record, that has me looking towards the Kings in 1331 01:10:23.350 --> 01:10:27.090 this game. I don't really understand why this says the 1332 01:10:27.149 --> 01:10:29.090 public is on the Kings because I don't think that 1333 01:10:29.470 --> 01:10:32.050 could possibly be the case. So I don't know. But 1334 01:10:32.710 --> 01:10:35.130 my lean is to the Kings slightly in that game. 1335 01:10:36.250 --> 01:10:39.489 All right, let's go to NBA. How many NBA games 1336 01:10:39.510 --> 01:10:43.050 we got? Four of them, I think. Yeah. Toronto at Philadelphia, 1337 01:10:43.090 --> 01:10:44.829 and you know what I'm about to say here. Toronto's 1338 01:10:44.869 --> 01:10:47.560 on a back-to-back, and they just put in a massive 1339 01:10:47.659 --> 01:10:51.880 effort yesterday against the Celtics, so possible flat spot here 1340 01:10:51.899 --> 01:10:54.739 for Toronto. The problem with that is that Philadelphia might 1341 01:10:54.800 --> 01:10:56.399 also be in a flat spot here, so I don't 1342 01:10:56.500 --> 01:11:00.159 really want to do anything with this game. But yeah, Toronto, 1343 01:11:00.720 --> 01:11:03.729 big game yesterday against Boston, and they had the lead 1344 01:11:03.789 --> 01:11:05.630 for most of the game. They caught the Celtics in 1345 01:11:05.649 --> 01:11:07.970 a really good time, obviously. The Celtics coming up, that 1346 01:11:08.189 --> 01:11:11.789 monster game against Philly. Celtics were on the back-to-back. Toronto 1347 01:11:11.970 --> 01:11:15.149 almost pulled off the upset. Fell short. I mean, Celtics 1348 01:11:15.189 --> 01:11:17.609 are a deep team, man. Even when they rest players, 1349 01:11:18.069 --> 01:11:21.770 you saw that depth and what it did against Philadelphia. But, yeah, 1350 01:11:21.789 --> 01:11:23.890 the Celtics' depth, they were able to win on a 1351 01:11:23.930 --> 01:11:27.800 back-to-back against a decent Toronto team, too, on the road. So, 1352 01:11:28.609 --> 01:11:30.399 kind of crazy there. But we got the cover with 1353 01:11:30.439 --> 01:11:32.720 Toronto yesterday on the show. As long as you got 1354 01:11:32.760 --> 01:11:36.260 one of the earlier numbers, you're fine. Yeah, I mean... 1355 01:11:36.800 --> 01:11:38.979 Toronto's obviously in a bad spot off of that. They 1356 01:11:39.000 --> 01:11:41.779 have to travel to Philadelphia now. It's on a back-to-back. 1357 01:11:42.180 --> 01:11:44.500 They have the Knicks coming up next, but they're not 1358 01:11:44.520 --> 01:11:48.439 going to overlook Philadelphia. That's the thing. If you don't 1359 01:11:48.479 --> 01:11:50.239 like Toronto here, it's because they're going to be way 1360 01:11:50.279 --> 01:11:52.649 tired after that game against the Celtics. And the Celtics 1361 01:11:52.699 --> 01:11:55.949 play physical defense and grind you down, all that stuff. 1362 01:11:56.329 --> 01:11:58.810 They play slow. So yeah, it's a bad spot for Toronto. 1363 01:11:58.829 --> 01:12:01.649 There's no question about that. But I don't really love 1364 01:12:01.710 --> 01:12:05.029 Philadelphia here either. uh philadelphia's coming up that game against 1365 01:12:05.050 --> 01:12:07.329 the celtics where that's a game they got up for 1366 01:12:07.409 --> 01:12:10.210 emotionally and the game was was actually close at the 1367 01:12:10.250 --> 01:12:13.500 philadelphia made a huge comeback in the game celtics were 1368 01:12:13.840 --> 01:12:15.779 were dominating the majority of the game but it was 1369 01:12:15.819 --> 01:12:17.840 like i don't know the celtics i think blew like 1370 01:12:17.859 --> 01:12:19.720 an 18 point lead and it was like oh here 1371 01:12:19.760 --> 01:12:22.550 we go again now the game's tied but the celtics 1372 01:12:23.390 --> 01:12:25.350 boom they went on a 9-0 run and they were 1373 01:12:25.390 --> 01:12:28.500 able to actually put their foot on their throats and 1374 01:12:28.539 --> 01:12:30.260 actually get it done that time. The Celtics had an 1375 01:12:30.800 --> 01:12:33.319 excellent fourth quarter and wound up with a blowout win 1376 01:12:33.340 --> 01:12:36.119 there after all that. But it was still a tied game, 1377 01:12:36.159 --> 01:12:38.109 I'm pretty sure, in the fourth quarter of that game. 1378 01:12:38.510 --> 01:12:40.850 That was still a monster game for Philadelphia. So I 1379 01:12:40.869 --> 01:12:44.770 don't want Philadelphia off of that game either. So, yeah, 1380 01:12:44.829 --> 01:12:47.430 I mean, this game, I would say probably the over 1381 01:12:47.689 --> 01:12:50.630 is the better play

here. The money's seemingly coming in 1382 01:12:50.689 --> 01:12:53.149 on the under. The under looks public. The total's not 1383 01:12:53.189 --> 01:12:57.539 that high at 222, 222.5 points. I think the over 1384 01:12:57.579 --> 01:12:59.579 makes sense. Uh, you know, looking at two teams that 1385 01:12:59.600 --> 01:13:02.439 are in spots that just do not look good and 1386 01:13:02.560 --> 01:13:04.760 Toronto's defense might be really tired at the end of 1387 01:13:04.779 --> 01:13:06.840 this whole thing. So I think the under makes sense here, 1388 01:13:06.859 --> 01:13:09.899 or excuse me, the over, the over, I think makes 1389 01:13:09.939 --> 01:13:13.520 sense here. Uh, Philadelphia is obviously favored. They're eight minus 1390 01:13:13.619 --> 01:13:16.619 eight and a half here, but you know, the line 1391 01:13:16.699 --> 01:13:18.979 skewed a little bit because Toronto's on the back to back. 1392 01:13:19.039 --> 01:13:20.939 Like Philly would probably be about a five and a 1393 01:13:20.960 --> 01:13:22.979 half point favorite if Toronto wasn't on a back to 1394 01:13:23.060 --> 01:13:26.810 back here. Um, Philly is getting the money, 52% of 1395 01:13:26.829 --> 01:13:29.770 the tickets, 69% of the cash on Philly. If you 1396 01:13:29.810 --> 01:13:32.369 force me to give you a side, yeah, I would agree. 1397 01:13:32.430 --> 01:13:34.890 I'd lean that way. I'd lay it with Philly probably. 1398 01:13:34.930 --> 01:13:37.479 I mean, Toronto on the back-to-back, I don't expect them 1399 01:13:37.489 --> 01:13:39.960 to be able to maintain that effort throughout two entire 1400 01:13:40.020 --> 01:13:43.439 games like this after what they did last night. Philly, 1401 01:13:43.460 --> 01:13:45.079 I mean, you could at least make the argument they're 1402 01:13:45.100 --> 01:13:48.760 going to be pissed and bounce back after that last game. 1403 01:13:48.779 --> 01:13:51.180 Although I think when the public kind of thinks that too, 1404 01:13:52.699 --> 01:13:55.239 sometimes it doesn't really happen. But the other way to 1405 01:13:55.300 --> 01:13:57.960 play this is if you think Philly is going to win, 1406 01:13:57.979 --> 01:14:01.359 and you agree with me on the over type of 1407 01:14:01.380 --> 01:14:04.800 scenario here, or Toronto at least being fatigued, you could 1408 01:14:04.840 --> 01:14:07.100 take Philadelphia to go over their team total here. I 1409 01:14:07.140 --> 01:14:09.840 don't hate that idea in this game either, so you 1410 01:14:09.859 --> 01:14:12.479 could do that. I don't know exactly what the number 1411 01:14:12.500 --> 01:14:14.439 is going to be on that, but Philadelphia over their 1412 01:14:14.460 --> 01:14:17.229 team total makes sense in that game too. All right, 1413 01:14:17.739 --> 01:14:20.649 next game is Detroit and Washington, and this... It's a 1414 01:14:20.670 --> 01:14:25.449 potential zigzag as Detroit just beat Washington by 11. It 1415 01:14:25.489 --> 01:14:29.060 was at home. If

you dig into that game, there 1416 01:14:29.100 --> 01:14:31.979 wasn't that much to see as far as an outlier. 1417 01:14:32.000 --> 01:14:34.760 The game was close statistically, so it's like, well, how 1418 01:14:34.779 --> 01:14:38.250 did Detroit win by 11? Well, the main outlier here 1419 01:14:38.310 --> 01:14:42.210 really was the free throw percentage. Detroit hit 90% of 1420 01:14:42.229 --> 01:14:45.670 their free throws, and Washington only was 71%. That was 1421 01:14:45.710 --> 01:14:48.510 really the difference in the game. This game should have 1422 01:14:48.529 --> 01:14:52.460 been closer. It was just the free throw percentage disparity 1423 01:14:52.479 --> 01:14:56.260 is really why Detroit won that game. So now Detroit 1424 01:14:56.300 --> 01:15:00.130 faces Washington again after just beating them. Detroit might look 1425 01:15:00.170 --> 01:15:04.640 past them. They have Miami on deck. Miami hasn't been 1426 01:15:04.689 --> 01:15:07.420 playing that well, but they still have more name recognition 1427 01:15:07.460 --> 01:15:10.319 around them. It's Giannis. You're still going to get up 1428 01:15:10.340 --> 01:15:15.039 for a game against the Greek freak. Then they got 1429 01:15:15.100 --> 01:15:18.680 San Antonio after that. I don't really see Detroit having 1430 01:15:18.720 --> 01:15:20.840 that full effort this time against Washington. I think it 1431 01:15:20.920 --> 01:15:24.250 may be... A zigzag spot here where maybe that free 1432 01:15:24.289 --> 01:15:27.949 throw outlier is enough to justify looking towards Washington in 1433 01:15:27.989 --> 01:15:31.949 this game to zigzag this thing. Washington, though, they played yesterday, 1434 01:15:32.090 --> 01:15:34.189 and it's even worse than that because they're returning home 1435 01:15:34.210 --> 01:15:36.949 from a road trip. So that's the problem here. If 1436 01:15:36.970 --> 01:15:39.109 you want to try to zigzag this, this is not 1437 01:15:39.130 --> 01:15:41.989 a good spot for Washington either. Returning home from a 1438 01:15:42.069 --> 01:15:44.489 road trip they've been on for almost a week. It 1439 01:15:44.529 --> 01:15:46.750 was a bad road trip, and they lost to Detroit 1440 01:15:46.789 --> 01:15:48.310 during the road trip, like I said, but they played 1441 01:15:48.350 --> 01:15:52.670 another game after that. Lost to Indiana yesterday. Now they're 1442 01:15:52.689 --> 01:15:56.909 back home after all that. This would normally be a 1443 01:15:56.949 --> 01:15:59.989 spot where you'd have to look to fade Washington here. 1444 01:16:01.029 --> 01:16:03.840 The zigzag is a thing, and it might work in 1445 01:16:03.880 --> 01:16:06.680 this game, but man, this spot is... This is a 1446 01:16:06.819 --> 01:16:09.840 real difficult spot for Washington, even though obviously they're not 1447 01:16:09.859 --> 01:16:12.779 going to overlook Detroit or anything like that, but return 1448 01:16:12.819 --> 01:16:16.390 home spot can still be a distraction. Back-to-back makes it 1449 01:16:16.449 --> 01:16:18.090 really difficult as well, though you get a little bit 1450 01:16:18.109 --> 01:16:21.390 of line value on it, though. So because of the back-to-back, 1451 01:16:22.090 --> 01:16:25.630 Detroit's a 10.5-point favorite, and they were 11.5 at home 1452 01:16:25.649 --> 01:16:27.529 against Washington, and now they're 10.5 on the road, and that's... 1453 01:16:30.649 --> 01:16:34.149 That's pretty much because Washington's on a back-to-back, right? If 1454 01:16:35.310 --> 01:16:38.739 Detroit was 11.5 at home, you don't get that much 1455 01:16:38.760 --> 01:16:41.220 for home court in basketball, but it should still probably 1456 01:16:41.239 --> 01:16:45.439 be about, I would say, probably somewhere around 8 in 1457 01:16:45.460 --> 01:16:47.800 this game, but it's 10.5, and you know that that's 1458 01:16:47.840 --> 01:16:52.029 because of the back-to-back that Washington's in. I don't know 1459 01:16:52.069 --> 01:16:53.949 what to do with this game, man. Detroit is getting 1460 01:16:53.970 --> 01:16:56.810 the money, 50-50 on the tickets, 87% of the cash 1461 01:16:56.829 --> 01:17:03.409 on Detroit. They're at minus 10, minus 10.5. I hate 1462 01:17:03.449 --> 01:17:06.850 this game. I hate it. Yeah, I got pretty much 1463 01:17:06.949 --> 01:17:08.840 nothing on this game, man. I mean, the money is 1464 01:17:08.979 --> 01:17:12.500 slightly indicating on the over. I could see the argument 1465 01:17:12.560 --> 01:17:16.500 for it, you know, with Washington being potentially really tired here. And, 1466 01:17:17.340 --> 01:17:20.460 you know, that combined with if you think Detroit's going 1467 01:17:20.479 --> 01:17:23.340 to overlook Washington at all, you know, it could show 1468 01:17:23.399 --> 01:17:25.399 up on the defensive side. So, yeah, maybe the over 1469 01:17:25.479 --> 01:17:29.189 does make sense in this game. I hate the game. 1470 01:17:29.289 --> 01:17:31.600 I really hate it. Uh, the money is indicating on 1471 01:17:31.640 --> 01:17:34.119 Detroit for whatever that's worth. And yes, they obviously have 1472 01:17:34.140 --> 01:17:37.880 the rest edge here. I, you know, I would say 1473 01:17:37.920 --> 01:17:41.199 the return home spot on top of the rest disadvantage 1474 01:17:41.899 --> 01:17:45.000 that probably does negate the zigzag. I think I'd, I'd 1475 01:17:45.100 --> 01:17:47.600 probably wind up agreeing and laying it with Detroit if 1476 01:17:47.640 --> 01:17:50.619 I was going to do anything with that side. But obviously, uh, 1477 01:17:51.390 --> 01:17:52.850 I don't want to do that. I'm not going to 1478 01:17:52.890 --> 01:17:59.949 do that. Um, over their team total, um, A team 1479 01:17:59.989 --> 01:18:04.550 total is just that team's specific total as opposed to 1480 01:18:04.590 --> 01:18:07.850 the total in the full game, which is both teams combined. 1481 01:18:07.869 --> 01:18:11.289 I'm talking about the amount of points that

that one 1482 01:18:11.390 --> 01:18:14.270 team is going to score. That's a bet that you 1483 01:18:14.310 --> 01:18:18.140 can make. You can bet on a team's total in 1484 01:18:18.180 --> 01:18:22.020 a game, if that makes sense. So it's just the 1485 01:18:22.079 --> 01:18:26.140 number of points that Philadelphia scores in that game. I'm 1486 01:18:26.199 --> 01:18:27.979 saying that that's an option in that game to take 1487 01:18:28.020 --> 01:18:32.100 Philadelphia to score more than whatever their team total is. 1488 01:18:32.220 --> 01:18:34.159 I can tell you what the number is. Hang on. 1489 01:18:35.149 --> 01:18:39.710 Let me see. It's going to be pretty high because 1490 01:18:39.729 --> 01:18:45.489 they're a big favorite and whatever. It's not totally unreasonable. 1491 01:18:45.529 --> 01:18:48.539 It's about minus. It's about, it's about one 15 is 1492 01:18:49.479 --> 01:18:52.100 where the number is. So you need Philadelphia to score 1493 01:18:52.140 --> 01:18:55.739 more than that in the game. And yeah, it's just 1494 01:18:55.819 --> 01:18:59.069 specifically what that specific team is going to score in 1495 01:18:59.090 --> 01:19:02.310 the game. Um, yeah. So I think that is an 1496 01:19:02.449 --> 01:19:05.130 option in that game to take Philadelphia over one 15 1497 01:19:05.130 --> 01:19:07.649 or one 15 and a half or whatever, um, in 1498 01:19:07.689 --> 01:19:12.449 that game. Um, All right, NBA TV has Dallas and Minnesota, 1499 01:19:12.489 --> 01:19:16.350 which I guess you could argue this is the best 1500 01:19:16.390 --> 01:19:18.729 game of the night on the NBA slate. I mean, 1501 01:19:18.750 --> 01:19:21.189 I don't know. I mean, Toronto-Philadelphia is a pretty good game, 1502 01:19:21.229 --> 01:19:27.520 but the circumstances around it don't really make it that great. Dallas, though, 1503 01:19:27.539 --> 01:19:30.489 I think Dallas is overrated right now. Also, Minnesota is, 1504 01:19:30.520 --> 01:19:33.619 of course, without their best player, Anthony Edwards, so that 1505 01:19:34.319 --> 01:19:38.609 makes this game not as exciting. Dallas just beat Indiana. 1506 01:19:38.630 --> 01:19:41.489 They've had a couple of days off here. Starting a 1507 01:19:41.550 --> 01:19:43.449 road trip. Should be focused. I mean, they're not going 1508 01:19:43.470 --> 01:19:46.979 to overlook Minnesota. Dallas barely got by Indiana in their 1509 01:19:47.000 --> 01:19:49.720 last game, so Dallas may be a little bit more 1510 01:19:49.800 --> 01:19:52.439 focused here after kind of a lackluster effort against a 1511 01:19:53.079 --> 01:19:58.020 very depleted Indiana team. Minnesota's coming up beating Utah. Not 1512 01:19:58.039 --> 01:20:01.130 a great win there either. They're staying at home, so 1513 01:20:01.210 --> 01:20:04.590 both teams should be focused here. Makes for, you know, 1514 01:20:04.649 --> 01:20:06.689 maybe a good game, but it also probably makes for, 1515 01:20:06.710 --> 01:20:09.670 you know, better defense in a game like this. Dallas 1516 01:20:09.710 --> 01:20:11.710 is getting the money. Minnesota's a five and a half 1517 01:20:11.729 --> 01:20:16.050 point favorite. Dallas has 63% of the tickets, 72% of 1518 01:20:16.069 --> 01:20:18.779 the money on them. I don't know, though, because Dallas 1519 01:20:18.800 --> 01:20:20.800 might wind up being a public underdog here, you know. 1520 01:20:22.239 --> 01:20:24.180 I think I kind of prefer Minnesota when you get 1521 01:20:24.199 --> 01:20:25.960 a matchup like this, and I think Dallas is a 1522 01:20:25.960 --> 01:20:28.500 little bit overrated right now and not as good as 1523 01:20:28.520 --> 01:20:31.659 their record looks. And I think Minnesota, even though they 1524 01:20:31.680 --> 01:20:35.090 don't have Anthony Edwards right now, they're still the better team. 1525 01:20:35.130 --> 01:20:37.149 The odds makers are telling you that they're five, five 1526 01:20:37.170 --> 01:20:39.850 and a half point favorite here. To me, I think 1527 01:20:39.869 --> 01:20:42.170 the public is going to be looking at that and thinking, Oh, well, 1528 01:20:42.590 --> 01:20:46.430 Minnesota is only like one game better record wise than Dallas. 1529 01:20:46.489 --> 01:20:49.409 So they're going to think it's competitive and like possibly 1530 01:20:49.449 --> 01:20:51.689 want to take the points here. I think I'd lean 1531 01:20:51.720 --> 01:20:53.899 the other way. Um, yeah, I think I'd lay it 1532 01:20:53.920 --> 01:20:55.579 with Minnesota. If I was going to do anything with 1533 01:20:55.600 --> 01:20:59.449 this game, not a strong opinion, but, um, Yeah, I mean, 1534 01:20:59.489 --> 01:21:01.310 I'd rather, I think in a game like that, I'd 1535 01:21:01.350 --> 01:21:03.220 rather be on the better team when you're getting both 1536 01:21:03.260 --> 01:21:05.960 teams focused like that. And I think Dallas is probably 1537 01:21:05.979 --> 01:21:08.439 a little bit of an overrated underdog in that one. 1538 01:21:09.100 --> 01:21:12.270 And then the last game is pretty ugly. Charlotte at Phoenix, 1539 01:21:12.310 --> 01:21:15.670 which of course does fall into this East versus West 1540 01:21:15.729 --> 01:21:20.310 situation where the West has dominated the East. Yesterday, that 1541 01:21:20.329 --> 01:21:22.609 wasn't really the case, though. I mean, Orlando was able 1542 01:21:22.630 --> 01:21:25.149 to beat Utah and cover, which I don't know. I 1543 01:21:25.149 --> 01:21:27.239 don't remember if I was correct about that one or not. 1544 01:21:27.619 --> 01:21:32.239 I was correct about Brooklyn. They blew out New Orleans yesterday. 1545 01:21:32.260 --> 01:21:34.810 So that was an Eastern team beating a Western team. 1546 01:21:34.899 --> 01:21:37.710 The Lakers beat Milwaukee, although that's not shocking. So that's 1547 01:21:38.050 --> 01:21:41.189 The West beat the East in that one. And San 1548 01:21:41.229 --> 01:21:45.949 Antonio did not cover against Chicago, but

they did win. So, yeah, 1549 01:21:46.109 --> 01:21:48.420 those were the games, the West versus East yesterday. But, 1550 01:21:48.449 --> 01:21:50.350 you know, it's been a talking point because the West 1551 01:21:51.050 --> 01:21:56.109 has really, really had the upper hand in these inter-conference 1552 01:21:56.149 --> 01:21:59.800 matchups here. Will that be the case here? Well, you know, 1553 01:21:59.819 --> 01:22:02.039 the odds makers are saying so. Phoenix is a pretty 1554 01:22:02.060 --> 01:22:05.199 big favorite here. And the public, I think, is probably 1555 01:22:05.239 --> 01:22:08.279 not going to want them. Because why would you want 1556 01:22:08.319 --> 01:22:12.779 a 4-6 team laying 6.5 points against a 4-7 team? 1557 01:22:13.079 --> 01:22:15.359 The public is probably not going to want to do 1558 01:22:15.420 --> 01:22:17.560 that with Phoenix. But I think Phoenix is a little 1559 01:22:17.579 --> 01:22:20.760 bit under the radar here. They're at least above. 500 1560 01:22:20.760 --> 01:22:23.770 at home. Charlotte's been bad on the road. Charlotte's 1-3 1561 01:22:23.810 --> 01:22:27.350 on the road. So that has me kind of looking 1562 01:22:27.630 --> 01:22:30.970 Phoenix's way here. It gets worse for Charlotte because they 1563 01:22:31.010 --> 01:22:34.479 just beat the Cavs in their last game. That was 1564 01:22:34.520 --> 01:22:38.119 a nice win for Charlotte. Nice upset there. Now they're 1565 01:22:38.140 --> 01:22:39.579 starting a road trip and they got to go out 1566 01:22:39.699 --> 01:22:42.399 west and play a later game here. so that might 1567 01:22:42.520 --> 01:22:45.850 mess with their biological clock a little bit phoenix not 1568 01:22:45.909 --> 01:22:47.729 a team that's really going to garner your focus right 1569 01:22:47.750 --> 01:22:50.010 now because they played pretty bad so it looks like 1570 01:22:50.029 --> 01:22:52.770 a letdown spot for charlotte plus going out west that 1571 01:22:52.789 --> 01:22:55.850 doesn't look good to me either having to adjust their 1572 01:22:55.989 --> 01:22:58.310 bio clock so i do think it's a negative spot 1573 01:22:58.390 --> 01:23:04.359 for charlotte here uh phoenix just destroyed the clippers And 1574 01:23:04.399 --> 01:23:07.039 they got the Lakers on deck, so I don't really 1575 01:23:07.079 --> 01:23:09.359 want to deal with Phoenix here either. Phoenix is playing 1576 01:23:09.390 --> 01:23:12.510 a third game in four days, fourth game in six days, 1577 01:23:12.590 --> 01:23:14.729 fifth game in eight days, and a sixth game in 1578 01:23:14.989 --> 01:23:19.649 nine days, which is not good. That's a lot of games, 1579 01:23:19.710 --> 01:23:22.149 but all of them are at home, though, so that's 1580 01:23:22.170 --> 01:23:24.510 a little bit better. You know, the fact that they're 1581 01:23:24.529 --> 01:23:26.670 at least not having to travel here. And I do 1582 01:23:26.710 --> 01:23:29.390 still like Phoenix in this game, but I have my 1583 01:23:29.430 --> 01:23:32.130 concerns about it. I mean, the look ahead to LA 1584 01:23:32.189 --> 01:23:35.060 plus a lot of games in quick succession here. I 1585 01:23:36.439 --> 01:23:38.340 don't like it enough to actually do it, but yeah, 1586 01:23:38.359 --> 01:23:40.479 I'd lean Phoenix in this game still. The money doesn't 1587 01:23:40.500 --> 01:23:43.619 even agree with me. 67% of the tickets on Phoenix, 1588 01:23:43.619 --> 01:23:46.619 53% of the cash on them. They dropped from a 1589 01:23:46.680 --> 01:23:48.640 seven point favorite to a six and a half point favorite, 1590 01:23:48.659 --> 01:23:53.119 but I'm surprised if Phoenix is actually a public side here. 1591 01:23:53.899 --> 01:23:58.260 I don't see that happening. Like, again, both teams having 1592 01:23:58.359 --> 01:24:00.600 records like this and both teams having kind of bad 1593 01:24:00.720 --> 01:24:04.399 records and close records, public is usually not laying the 1594 01:24:04.460 --> 01:24:07.819 favorite when that's the case. So, I don't know. And 1595 01:24:07.840 --> 01:24:09.800 I think the spot is still worse for Charlotte. So, 1596 01:24:09.880 --> 01:24:12.239 I like Phoenix in that one. Plus, that at least 1597 01:24:12.300 --> 01:24:15.380 falls into that, you know, West over East domination that's 1598 01:24:15.420 --> 01:24:17.689 been going on. Even though it seems like it's sort of, 1599 01:24:19.989 --> 01:24:23.039 you know, lapsing a little bit now, but we'll see. 1600 01:24:23.060 --> 01:24:27.060 I lean Phoenix in that one, though. Alright, we got 1601 01:24:27.100 --> 01:24:29.609 a college football here. It is not Maction now that 1602 01:24:29.630 --> 01:24:32.930 we're into Thursday. We have two games here. One is 1603 01:24:32.970 --> 01:24:37.270 in the American Conference, which is The better of the 1604 01:24:37.310 --> 01:24:42.029 two games, Memphis at South Florida on ESPN. Memphis, I mean, 1605 01:24:42.489 --> 01:24:44.949 we know what they are. They're a really, really good offense, 1606 01:24:45.010 --> 01:24:50.430 especially passing attack. Their passing attack is excellent, but they're 1607 01:24:50.470 --> 01:24:53.140 not a good defense. And lane points on the road, 1608 01:24:53.229 --> 01:24:57.060 I'm not quite so sold on that from Memphis. Memphis, 1609 01:24:57.140 --> 01:24:59.100 we know they're trying to win the conference here, right? 1610 01:24:59.399 --> 01:25:01.380 They got one loss. They're trying to get into the 1611 01:25:01.420 --> 01:25:05.020 conference championship game here. Yeah, of course, that's all in 1612 01:25:05.100 --> 01:25:06.899 front of them. But at some point, the pressure's going 1613 01:25:06.930 --> 01:25:08.930 to be on them, man, and they might slip. And 1614 01:25:09.329 --> 01:25:12.170 they've had a lot of time off here. They haven't 1615 01:25:12.210 --> 01:25:15.609 played since they beat Army in a blowout on Halloween. 1616 01:25:16.329 --> 01:25:18.069 So they haven't played

since then. So they had a 1617 01:25:18.170 --> 01:25:20.399 bye after that, basically. I'm pretty sure, yeah, it was 1618 01:25:20.439 --> 01:25:22.760 a bye because they didn't play on Saturday and they 1619 01:25:22.779 --> 01:25:26.079 didn't have to play now until this Thursday. So, yeah, 1620 01:25:26.100 --> 01:25:27.939 they've had a lot of time off. They were on 1621 01:25:27.979 --> 01:25:30.500 a two-game win streak. They won five of their last six. 1622 01:25:30.989 --> 01:25:32.449 And you know, I don't like that. When a team 1623 01:25:32.470 --> 01:25:36.010 has a bye, when they're winning, it could disrupt their momentum. 1624 01:25:36.029 --> 01:25:38.420 So I actually do not like the spot for Memphis here. 1625 01:25:39.359 --> 01:25:41.600 You know, they got Navy on deck. Navy has not 1626 01:25:41.659 --> 01:25:44.140 played well, so that's not really a look ahead. But still, 1627 01:25:44.840 --> 01:25:48.050 South Florida, I mean, they've been a disgusting offense. Like 1628 01:25:48.090 --> 01:25:51.409 their offense is really bad. So they're kind of a 1629 01:25:51.430 --> 01:25:53.189 team you might overlook. And you know the public is 1630 01:25:53.229 --> 01:25:56.000 only going to be on Memphis here. The public loves 1631 01:25:56.079 --> 01:25:58.739 high-flying offenses, and that's what you get with Memphis, but 1632 01:25:58.779 --> 01:26:01.920 you don't get a good defense. South Florida, yes, their 1633 01:26:01.979 --> 01:26:04.640 offense is terrible, but their offense might be able to 1634 01:26:04.699 --> 01:26:09.119 do something against a very bad Memphis defense. And South Florida, 1635 01:26:09.760 --> 01:26:12.180 while they're not great, they are actually the better defense. 1636 01:26:13.300 --> 01:26:16.609 They do have six wins now, so they became bowl eligible. 1637 01:26:18.630 --> 01:26:20.930 I liked the idea of fading them after that last 1638 01:26:20.970 --> 01:26:22.430 week because I was like, well, they're not going to 1639 01:26:22.449 --> 01:26:24.569 get into the conference championship or anything like that. They 1640 01:26:24.609 --> 01:26:27.229 became bowl eligible again. Fine. I don't know if that 1641 01:26:27.250 --> 01:26:29.770 was a big deal, but beating UAB in a blowout 1642 01:26:29.829 --> 01:26:33.229 probably was pretty satisfying for South Florida. So then last week, 1643 01:26:33.270 --> 01:26:35.149 what did they do? Well, they went to East Carolina 1644 01:26:35.180 --> 01:26:38.439 and they dropped the game, you know? So I think 1645 01:26:38.479 --> 01:26:40.680 it's a better setup for South Florida here. Like they're 1646 01:26:40.739 --> 01:26:42.420 not going to overlook Memphis. This is going to be 1647 01:26:42.439 --> 01:26:44.960 a big game for South Florida. You know what I mean? 1648 01:26:45.000 --> 01:26:47.180 It's not their final home game yet. So it's not 1649 01:26:47.300 --> 01:26:50.510 senior night yet, unless... Sometimes teams do weird things, and

1650 01:26:50.529 --> 01:26:52.520 sometimes they do decide to have senior night on a 1651 01:26:52.560 --> 01:26:56.659 different home game. Like, maybe they, you know, because it's 1652 01:26:56.699 --> 01:26:59.909 an ESPN game and it's isolated like this, maybe they 1653 01:26:59.930 --> 01:27:02.670 actually do turn this into that. But either way, you know, 1654 01:27:02.729 --> 01:27:05.149 it'll be a big deal anyway, though, right? You get 1655 01:27:05.170 --> 01:27:09.300 a home game. It's the biggest college football game of 1656 01:27:09.350 --> 01:27:12.579 the night at home on ESPN. You get the big 1657 01:27:12.640 --> 01:27:15.659 billing here, man. It gets Memphis. Yeah, you know South 1658 01:27:15.699 --> 01:27:18.340 Florida's going to get up for that game. These home teams, 1659 01:27:18.380 --> 01:27:19.619 like I say, they get a little bit of a 1660 01:27:19.699 --> 01:27:23.460 boost a lot of times in these isolated primetime home 1661 01:27:23.500 --> 01:27:25.909 games like this in the middle of the week. This, 1662 01:27:26.069 --> 01:27:27.710 I think, is definitely one of them. I do like 1663 01:27:27.750 --> 01:27:30.170 South Florida plus the points in this one. I don't 1664 01:27:30.189 --> 01:27:34.680 like it enough to put it on my card, but Yeah, 1665 01:27:34.720 --> 01:27:36.439 I mean, they should be in a bounce back. That 1666 01:27:36.479 --> 01:27:39.239 was kind of an ugly game they had against East Carolina. 1667 01:27:39.800 --> 01:27:41.340 And what I said in that game was not only 1668 01:27:41.359 --> 01:27:43.960 were they coming off that satisfying win against UAB, but 1669 01:27:43.979 --> 01:27:46.180 they had the Memphis look ahead. I think they were 1670 01:27:46.220 --> 01:27:49.220 looking ahead to this Memphis game. So, yeah, I think 1671 01:27:49.239 --> 01:27:51.460 you're getting a better spot here for South Florida. You're 1672 01:27:51.479 --> 01:27:56.399 getting a potentially disruptive bye from Memphis here. Public loves 1673 01:27:56.439 --> 01:27:58.880 the high-flying offense, so they're going to love Memphis for 1674 01:27:58.920 --> 01:28:01.380 that reason here. You're getting the home team with a 1675 01:28:01.380 --> 01:28:05.090 potential boost on ESPN here in a midweek game, and 1676 01:28:05.670 --> 01:28:08.390 you're getting at least the better defense getting points at home, 1677 01:28:08.449 --> 01:28:10.829 so I do like South Florida here. Now, I don't 1678 01:28:10.869 --> 01:28:12.729 know what happened with this line because it was going 1679 01:28:12.750 --> 01:28:14.789 to open at Memphis 6, and now it's been 3.5 1680 01:28:14.789 --> 01:28:19.319 basically all week. I don't know why that's the case. 1681 01:28:19.439 --> 01:28:21.859 Maybe South Florida is getting their quarterback back or something 1682 01:28:21.880 --> 01:28:25.279 because their quarterback was Van Buren for a while. Then 1683 01:28:25.319 --> 01:28:27.390 he went down. I don't know if he's coming back 1684 01:28:27.430 --> 01:28:30.659 or not for this game. If he does, I do 1685 01:28:30.659 --> 01:28:33.739 talk about how I don't like the reverse injured player 1686 01:28:33.739 --> 01:28:37.699 spot when your star quarterback comes back or whatever. and 1687 01:28:38.460 --> 01:28:40.420 the team can tend to get a little bit complacent 1688 01:28:40.439 --> 01:28:42.000 and he might be a little bit rusty but in 1689 01:28:42.020 --> 01:28:44.739 a game like this No, I mean, they're not going 1690 01:28:44.760 --> 01:28:48.159 to overlook Memphis. This game, I don't really care that much. 1691 01:28:48.619 --> 01:28:52.380 Whatever's going on with South Florida's quarterback situation here. It 1692 01:28:52.420 --> 01:28:55.039 also just looks way too easy to play Memphis, doesn't it? 1693 01:28:55.399 --> 01:28:58.399 At 3.5, even though South Florida's only one game behind 1694 01:28:58.439 --> 01:29:02.359 them in the standings, it just feels like Memphis is 1695 01:29:02.380 --> 01:29:05.229 the way better team. And yeah, they're the better team. 1696 01:29:05.239 --> 01:29:07.270 That's why they're favored on the road. But to me, 1697 01:29:07.289 --> 01:29:09.529 it feels pretty easy to lay the points. So I 1698 01:29:09.550 --> 01:29:11.170 would not do it. I would take the points with 1699 01:29:11.210 --> 01:29:14.380 South Florida. Memphis right now is 53% of the tickets 1700 01:29:14.420 --> 01:29:16.420 and 62% of the money on them though. So it 1701 01:29:16.439 --> 01:29:19.270 looks like the money is kind of indicating towards the 1702 01:29:19.310 --> 01:29:20.189 Memphis side here. 1703 01:29:20.199 --> 01:29:21.430 Yeah. 1704 01:29:21.510 --> 01:29:23.390 I don't, I don't really agree. Like I said, with, 1705 01:29:23.409 --> 01:29:25.170 with the way that this game sets up, I'd rather 1706 01:29:25.210 --> 01:29:29.289 have South Florida, um, Total's gone up to 50.5, but 1707 01:29:29.310 --> 01:29:31.930 it looks like the over is very public with a 1708 01:29:31.949 --> 01:29:33.350 little bit less of the money on them. And I 1709 01:29:33.390 --> 01:29:37.130 think Memphis is probably correlated with the over because they 1710 01:29:37.170 --> 01:29:39.329 probably want to get into a shootout and sling the 1711 01:29:39.369 --> 01:29:42.930 ball all around. South Florida wants to muddy this game 1712 01:29:42.989 --> 01:29:44.550 up and get it ugly, you know what I mean, 1713 01:29:44.590 --> 01:29:48.069 and play defense pretty much. So I think the total 1714 01:29:48.090 --> 01:29:51.189 and side are probably correlated here. Memphis with the over 1715 01:29:51.229 --> 01:29:55.409 and South Florida with the under. That's what I'll say here. Saab, 1716 01:29:55.449 --> 01:29:58.710 what's up, man? Uh, you like the Hornets at first, 1717 01:29:58.729 --> 01:30:01.890 but then you, uh, switch to, uh, yeah, to liking 1718 01:30:01.909 --> 01:30:04.949 the Suns. Yeah. Um, I, I think the Suns are 1719

01:30:04.970 --> 01:30:08.130 the right side there. I, yeah, I mean, I, yeah, I, 1720 01:30:08.189 --> 01:30:10.699 we're in agreement on that. My, my first reaction was, 1721 01:30:10.819 --> 01:30:13.659 was Suns anyway. Cause the first thing I saw was 1722 01:30:13.819 --> 01:30:17.060 Charlotte just upset Cleveland. So I'm like, uh, that's going 1723 01:30:17.079 --> 01:30:18.859 to put them in a fade spot. So my first 1724 01:30:18.920 --> 01:30:22.600 reaction was to play Phoenix in that game. But yeah. Um, 1725 01:30:24.699 --> 01:30:27.380 Looking into it actually made me like it less. When 1726 01:30:27.420 --> 01:30:30.739 I saw that Phoenix had so many games in not 1727 01:30:30.760 --> 01:30:33.199 a lot of, you know, in a short span of 1728 01:30:33.260 --> 01:30:35.340 time there. It's just the good thing about it is 1729 01:30:35.380 --> 01:30:39.159 they're all at home, you know. All right. The other 1730 01:30:39.199 --> 01:30:43.029 game is the Battle of the Louisianas. It's Louisiana, a.k.a. 1731 01:30:43.090 --> 01:30:51.000 Louisiana Lafayette against UL Monroe. You know, Louisiana Monroe. I 1732 01:30:51.020 --> 01:30:53.760 think Monroe considers themselves to be the little brother here 1733 01:30:53.899 --> 01:30:59.239 in Louisiana because Louisiana, a.k.a. Lafayette, Louisiana Lafayette, they're always 1734 01:30:59.300 --> 01:31:03.140 the better of these two teams. Always. In basketball and football, 1735 01:31:03.159 --> 01:31:05.800 it doesn't really matter. And they're the better team again here. 1736 01:31:07.340 --> 01:31:08.899 Yoel Monroe is going to get up for it, though, 1737 01:31:08.930 --> 01:31:12.430 because they're the little brother here. ESPN2 has this game 1738 01:31:12.470 --> 01:31:16.010 at 9 p.m. It's a home game for Yoel Monroe. 1739 01:31:16.050 --> 01:31:18.329 It's a big game for them. It's against one of 1740 01:31:18.350 --> 01:31:21.380 their biggest rivals who's the big brother that pretty much 1741 01:31:21.439 --> 01:31:24.500 always gives them problems, you know. So, Yoel Monroe is 1742 01:31:24.539 --> 01:31:28.550 definitely going to get up for this game. However, should 1743 01:31:28.590 --> 01:31:30.869 we actually try to play them plus the points here? 1744 01:31:31.649 --> 01:31:35.630 I'm going to say no. Louisiana is coming up with 1745 01:31:35.649 --> 01:31:38.229 a nice win five days ago, though, against South Alabama. 1746 01:31:38.289 --> 01:31:40.529 Both teams only have five days off here. So, both 1747 01:31:40.569 --> 01:31:45.000 teams are, you know, both teams have short rest here. 1748 01:31:45.039 --> 01:31:47.060 And a lot of times the short rest does favor 1749 01:31:47.079 --> 01:31:50.380 the better team. Louisiana, I mean, that was a nice 1750 01:31:50.439 --> 01:31:52.880 win over South Alabama, though South Alabama was kind of 1751 01:31:52.920 --> 01:31:56.199 hanging around behind them in their division standings there, so 1752 01:31:56.220 --> 01:31:58.439

that was a good win for Louisiana, and they barely 1753 01:31:58.479 --> 01:32:01.390 got by, but that's the thing. The fact that Louisiana 1754 01:32:01.479 --> 01:32:04.369 barely got by that game at home, Louisiana was a 1755 01:32:04.489 --> 01:32:07.170 seven-point favorite in this game, and they actually dominated the 1756 01:32:07.189 --> 01:32:12.500 game yardage-wise, had almost 100 more yards offensively. than South Alabama. 1757 01:32:12.520 --> 01:32:14.479 So the game wasn't exactly what it looked like on 1758 01:32:14.500 --> 01:32:17.680 the scoreboard there. So I think Louisiana was better in 1759 01:32:17.720 --> 01:32:19.420 that game than it looked like. And because they were 1760 01:32:19.439 --> 01:32:22.050 a big favorite, even though that was kind of a 1761 01:32:22.060 --> 01:32:23.390 big game, you're looking at a team that was a 1762 01:32:23.390 --> 01:32:26.810 big favorite that almost lost. So that might actually have 1763 01:32:26.829 --> 01:32:30.729 them refocused here. Now, yeah, Louisiana's trying to get into 1764 01:32:30.770 --> 01:32:33.329 the Sun Belt Championship game. And in order to do that, 1765 01:32:33.369 --> 01:32:37.949 they need to win this division. But I mean, it 1766 01:32:37.970 --> 01:32:39.649 looks like it might be out of reach, though, because 1767 01:32:39.770 --> 01:32:43.569 Louisiana Tech is going to need to lose, basically lose out, 1768 01:32:43.810 --> 01:32:48.350 because Louisiana does not have the tiebreaker either. Louisiana lost 1769 01:32:48.390 --> 01:32:54.210 to La Tech, so Louisiana is basically fucked. The only 1770 01:32:54.229 --> 01:32:56.930 way that Louisiana can make the Sunbelt title game is 1771 01:32:57.390 --> 01:32:59.329 to win all of their remaining games and have La 1772 01:32:59.369 --> 01:33:01.609 Tech lose all of their remaining games. That's not going 1773 01:33:01.640 --> 01:33:05.710 to happen, but... You know, what does that mean for Louisiana? Like, 1774 01:33:05.729 --> 01:33:08.329 are they in, like, a dream crusher mode here? I 1775 01:33:08.369 --> 01:33:10.600 don't know, because they've already kind of reached their other 1776 01:33:10.640 --> 01:33:14.500 goal here, true, which is bowl eligibility. You know, they 1777 01:33:14.520 --> 01:33:16.680 got that again, so that's good. They'll be going to 1778 01:33:16.720 --> 01:33:21.060 a bowl. Will they show up for this game against 1779 01:33:21.119 --> 01:33:22.680 UL Monroe? That's really what you have to kind of 1780 01:33:22.720 --> 01:33:26.840 figure out. I honestly don't know. I mean... UL Monroe 1781 01:33:26.939 --> 01:33:29.250 is one of their rivals, but they're a shitty team. 1782 01:33:30.130 --> 01:33:33.930 Monroe is definitely in a bad spot, though. That's the thing. 1783 01:33:34.729 --> 01:33:37.390 They just upset Arkansas State on the road. That was 1784 01:33:37.430 --> 01:33:41.649 a nice win. A divisional upset. I think they were 1785 01:33:41.750 --> 01:33:44.590 double-digit underdogs in that game at Arkansas State. That was 1786 01:33:44.609 --> 01:33:48.279 a nice upset win for UL Monroe. I don't love 1787 01:33:48.319 --> 01:33:52.199 the spot for them here. Even though this is their 1788 01:33:52.239 --> 01:33:54.340 primary rival, so you'd think they'd still get up for 1789 01:33:54.380 --> 01:33:59.500 this game, but When you boil it down, you know, 1790 01:34:00.189 --> 01:34:03.829 Louisiana Lafayette is coming off a bad performance as a favorite, 1791 01:34:03.869 --> 01:34:06.409 whereas Yeoman Rose coming off a really good performance as 1792 01:34:06.430 --> 01:34:08.979 an underdog. That's the thing. So usually that's going to 1793 01:34:09.020 --> 01:34:11.380 have me looking towards the team that was not so 1794 01:34:11.420 --> 01:34:14.560 good as a favorite in the next game. Problem with 1795 01:34:14.600 --> 01:34:17.920 it is you're having to lay points with Louisiana here, 1796 01:34:17.960 --> 01:34:20.239 and you don't know how much motivation they really have here. 1797 01:34:20.840 --> 01:34:24.189 That's the thing about this game. So what do we do? 1798 01:34:24.239 --> 01:34:25.930 How do we deal with this game? Obviously, I'm not 1799 01:34:25.970 --> 01:34:29.210 going to play the game, but 76% of the tickets, 1800 01:34:29.210 --> 01:34:33.350 88% of the cash on Louisiana here. They're down to 1801 01:34:33.390 --> 01:34:36.569 about a 10 or 9.5 point favorite at some spots. 1802 01:34:36.590 --> 01:34:41.270 So if you do want to play into that refocused 1803 01:34:41.510 --> 01:34:46.010 idea for Louisiana and the potential hangover spot for you 1804 01:34:46.029 --> 01:34:47.489 all Monroe here where they just won't be able to 1805 01:34:47.510 --> 01:34:51.289 put in that effort multiple games in a row. You know, 1806 01:34:51.369 --> 01:34:53.989 I would look for the better number with Louisiana Lafayette 1807 01:34:54.029 --> 01:34:56.189 and find like the 10 on this and lay that. 1808 01:34:57.020 --> 01:34:58.460 I don't want to do it though. You know, when 1809 01:34:58.479 --> 01:35:02.640 they're on the road in a, um, in a primetime 1810 01:35:02.680 --> 01:35:04.500 game like this where the home team should still get 1811 01:35:04.560 --> 01:35:07.010 up for it for primetime against what's one of their 1812 01:35:07.020 --> 01:35:08.949 biggest rivals, so I still don't want to lay the 1813 01:35:09.010 --> 01:35:11.829 points here. Yeah, this game is a complete stay away 1814 01:35:11.869 --> 01:35:14.279 for me. The total's not that high. It's in the 40s, 1815 01:35:14.310 --> 01:35:17.369 so laying a bunch of points, double digits on the road. 1816 01:35:17.390 --> 01:35:20.899 I know I recommended it in the Western Michigan game 1817 01:35:20.909 --> 01:35:22.199 the other day, and they were able to do it 1818 01:35:22.239 --> 01:35:27.500 pretty easily, but... This game isn't really that Louisiana Lafayette 1819 01:35:27.539 --> 01:35:29.479 does like to slow

the game down, by the way, 1820 01:35:29.920 --> 01:35:32.590 which Western Michigan kind of does that, too. But Louisiana 1821 01:35:32.659 --> 01:35:35.869 is is definitely known as kind of that style. They 1822 01:35:35.949 --> 01:35:38.289 slow the game down. So that's not exactly what you 1823 01:35:38.329 --> 01:35:40.789 want on the road. However, if they're going to be 1824 01:35:40.810 --> 01:35:43.010 good at running the football, which they probably will be 1825 01:35:43.050 --> 01:35:46.329 because you all Monroe can't stop the run. And that's 1826 01:35:46.350 --> 01:35:48.789 what Louisiana wants to do here. That might still mean 1827 01:35:48.829 --> 01:35:50.430 they might be able to cover this because they'll be 1828 01:35:50.789 --> 01:35:53.239 doing what they can do best, running the football while 1829 01:35:53.260 --> 01:35:54.680 they're already ahead. You know what I mean? They can 1830 01:35:54.699 --> 01:35:57.479 actually extend the lead by doing that. So I don't 1831 01:35:57.500 --> 01:35:59.619 know what to do with this game. The money is 1832 01:35:59.939 --> 01:36:02.489 more strongly on the under in this game than anything else. 1833 01:36:03.649 --> 01:36:08.920 I understand the under, right? Because, again, it's a Monroe 1834 01:36:08.939 --> 01:36:13.300 team that just sucks offensively. And Louisiana Lafayette, again, they 1835 01:36:13.399 --> 01:36:15.239 slow the game way down, and that might be what 1836 01:36:15.260 --> 01:36:17.100 they want to do here. So I wouldn't really disagree 1837 01:36:17.119 --> 01:36:19.840 with the under if that's the way that you would 1838 01:36:19.859 --> 01:36:21.420 want to play that game. I don't have a great 1839 01:36:21.479 --> 01:36:24.659 read on the game, though. As you can tell, all right, 1840 01:36:24.699 --> 01:36:28.380 let's go to NFL Thursday night. I am no longer Mr. 1841 01:36:28.439 --> 01:36:29.380 Thursday night, man. 1842 01:36:29.399 --> 01:36:29.449 3-0. 1843 01:36:30.770 --> 01:36:33.689 Incorrect opinions in a row on thursday night trying to 1844 01:36:33.710 --> 01:36:35.329 give up the sides last year i think i only 1845 01:36:35.369 --> 01:36:38.310 got three wrong all year this year i only had 1846 01:36:38.550 --> 01:36:40.689 one wrong up until recently and now i'm five and 1847 01:36:40.789 --> 01:36:44.510 four or whatever it's not going well this game's hard 1848 01:36:44.550 --> 01:36:46.789 to figure out dude this game is really hard to 1849 01:36:46.829 --> 01:36:52.569 figure out this game is basically situation favors one side 1850 01:36:52.770 --> 01:36:55.569 and the um at least slightly and i think the 1851 01:36:55.750 --> 01:36:59.020 um Reading what the oddsmakers are telling you. Favors playing 1852 01:36:59.039 --> 01:37:00.779 the other side here. So, like, what the hell do 1853 01:37:00.819 --> 01:37:03.579 we do with this game? This game is Washington and 1854 01:37:03.600 --> 01:37:07.659 the New York Giants at New York. I

mean, this 1855 01:37:07.800 --> 01:37:12.220 whole division is a disaster. It's a travesty. The fact 1856 01:37:12.260 --> 01:37:14.060 that one of these teams is going to host a 1857 01:37:14.119 --> 01:37:17.619 playoff game is unbelievable. We need to change the way 1858 01:37:17.640 --> 01:37:20.779 the NFL structures the playoffs. Like, these teams do not 1859 01:37:20.819 --> 01:37:24.439 deserve a home game. And the Giants... Yeah, they're not 1860 01:37:24.479 --> 01:37:26.920 as good as their record looks, okay? So that's what 1861 01:37:26.939 --> 01:37:28.619 I was talking about with as far as what the 1862 01:37:28.779 --> 01:37:32.359 oddsmakers are telling you here. Well, the Giants open a 1863 01:37:32.479 --> 01:37:36.479 one-point favorite. Now they're about two or so here. Why 1864 01:37:36.520 --> 01:37:38.789 are the Giants, you know, not favored by more than that? 1865 01:37:38.829 --> 01:37:41.069 If they're five and two and Washington's, you know, two 1866 01:37:41.109 --> 01:37:44.109 and five or whatever, how could the Giants be laying 1867 01:37:44.149 --> 01:37:47.189 less than a field goal here, right? Well, the odds 1868 01:37:47.229 --> 01:37:49.350 are telling you that the Giants are not even the 1869 01:37:49.390 --> 01:37:52.350 better team here. The odds are telling you Washington is 1870 01:37:52.390 --> 01:37:54.170 actually probably the better team here, and I think I 1871 01:37:54.229 --> 01:37:58.260 actually agree with that. Washington has the better quarterback, so 1872 01:37:58.279 --> 01:38:02.420 there is that at least. But yeah, so that's kind 1873 01:38:02.439 --> 01:38:05.439 of the... that's what the odds makers are telling you. 1874 01:38:05.470 --> 01:38:08.390 That's that part of the equation. If you go with that, 1875 01:38:08.630 --> 01:38:11.010 then you want to play Washington in this game. Uh, 1876 01:38:11.050 --> 01:38:13.930 now the giants are public, uh, as expected 73% of 1877 01:38:13.949 --> 01:38:17.170 the tickets on them, although 88% of the money on 1878 01:38:17.210 --> 01:38:18.909 them right now. So it looks like some money has 1879 01:38:18.970 --> 01:38:21.090 come in on them, but I'm wondering if that money's 1880 01:38:21.130 --> 01:38:23.810 trying to drive this number to three. Like I'm wondering 1881 01:38:23.829 --> 01:38:26.310 if the professionals are really wanting that three so they 1882 01:38:26.329 --> 01:38:29.489 can come back and fire on Washington. That might be 1883 01:38:29.529 --> 01:38:32.500 what they're trying to do here. So, I wouldn't read 1884 01:38:32.560 --> 01:38:35.340 too much into that cash percentage here right now, but yes, 1885 01:38:35.399 --> 01:38:37.899 my first instinct on this game was I like Washington 1886 01:38:37.939 --> 01:38:41.289 in this game because I saw Giants are two in 1887 01:38:41.329 --> 01:38:43.289 this game. Well, why? You know what I mean? Like, 1888 01:38:44.439 --> 01:38:47.470 when they have a three-game lead, basically, over Washington, why 1889 01:38:47.479 --> 01:38:49.489 would the Giants only be laying less than a field 1890 01:38:49.510 --> 01:38:51.649 goal here? It looks way too easy to play the Giants. 1891 01:38:52.050 --> 01:38:54.970 I think the Giants are fake. And when you dig 1892 01:38:55.010 --> 01:38:57.829 into it more, it's a little bit even more ridiculous 1893 01:38:57.850 --> 01:39:01.020 because the Giants have faced a really easy schedule. They've 1894 01:39:01.039 --> 01:39:07.039 beaten Arizona, Tennessee. They've beaten all these bad teams. Washington 1895 01:39:07.100 --> 01:39:11.229 has played a more difficult schedule. Washington's played the 49ers twice. 1896 01:39:11.850 --> 01:39:14.170 And played them fairly well on a Monday night. I 1897 01:39:14.189 --> 01:39:18.569 think it was a Monday night game. And Washington beat Seattle. So, like, 1898 01:39:18.590 --> 01:39:21.649 this Washington team is more battle-tested. And the Giants, the 1899 01:39:21.670 --> 01:39:23.770 best team they played was the Rams early in the season. 1900 01:39:23.789 --> 01:39:26.939 And the Rams annihilated them. Whereas Washington actually played the 1901 01:39:27.000 --> 01:39:32.380 Rams reasonably well this past week. But that's where I 1902 01:39:32.399 --> 01:39:34.619 kind of get into, well, the spot isn't that good 1903 01:39:34.659 --> 01:39:37.960 for Washington. Because Washington is coming off that game where 1904 01:39:37.979 --> 01:39:41.449 they were tied with the Rams really late into the game, right? So... 1905 01:39:42.270 --> 01:39:44.310 That was a big game for them. They played well 1906 01:39:44.350 --> 01:39:46.649 against a tough Rams team and it was tied late 1907 01:39:46.689 --> 01:39:49.239 in the game. So usually I don't want a team 1908 01:39:49.279 --> 01:39:51.699 coming off a game like that, but the Rams were 1909 01:39:51.739 --> 01:39:53.560 a 500 team going in there. So I don't know 1910 01:39:53.579 --> 01:39:57.720 if Washington really was, you know, of the mindset that 1911 01:39:57.760 --> 01:40:00.100 that was like this monster game or anything like that. 1912 01:40:01.300 --> 01:40:03.010 And then the thing is, they're not going to overlook 1913 01:40:03.029 --> 01:40:06.069 the Giants because the Giants, if the Giants win this game, 1914 01:40:06.090 --> 01:40:08.270 they're going to win the division, right? So Washington is 1915 01:40:08.310 --> 01:40:11.890 in total desperation mode here, right? And Dallas is also 1916 01:40:11.930 --> 01:40:15.479 in between the two right now. But yeah, Washington, if 1917 01:40:15.500 --> 01:40:17.710 they lose this game, they're fucked because they're going to, 1918 01:40:17.859 --> 01:40:19.760 you know, they're going to have lost the tiebreaker to 1919 01:40:19.779 --> 01:40:22.520 the Giants and they're going to be three games back 1920 01:40:22.539 --> 01:40:25.130 or yeah, there'll be four games back of them in 1921 01:40:25.170 --> 01:40:28.630 addition

to not having the tiebreaker basically. So that's, That 1922 01:40:28.649 --> 01:40:31.229 would be brutal. There'll be three and a half back 1923 01:40:31.289 --> 01:40:35.479 or whatever, plus losing the tiebreaker. That's bad. So basically, 1924 01:40:35.520 --> 01:40:39.050 Washington's only path to getting into the playoffs, because they're 1925 01:40:39.069 --> 01:40:41.909 not going to be a wild card at this rate, obviously. 1926 01:40:42.729 --> 01:40:45.380 Washington's only path to make the playoffs here starts with 1927 01:40:45.739 --> 01:40:47.859 they have to win this game. You know what I mean? 1928 01:40:48.039 --> 01:40:50.239 They have to get closer in this division, whereas the 1929 01:40:50.359 --> 01:40:52.880 Giants might get a little bit complacent because they have 1930 01:40:52.920 --> 01:40:55.939 so much padding in this division right now. They might 1931 01:40:55.960 --> 01:40:58.840 be the team that has less urgency here, so you're 1932 01:40:58.859 --> 01:41:02.819 going to get the urgency factor on Washington as an underdog, 1933 01:41:02.859 --> 01:41:04.689 and I do like that. That is one thing that 1934 01:41:04.729 --> 01:41:10.109 I look for, but does that plus the odds-maker scenario here, 1935 01:41:10.130 --> 01:41:13.180 does that all kind of counteract Washington coming off a 1936 01:41:13.279 --> 01:41:16.800 big game, maybe. I mean, the Giants are definitely going 1937 01:41:16.819 --> 01:41:18.760 to get less credit for what they did last week. 1938 01:41:18.939 --> 01:41:21.899 The Giants beat the Eagles. Who gives a shit at 1939 01:41:21.939 --> 01:41:24.359 this point? The Eagles have been awful, and the Giants 1940 01:41:24.430 --> 01:41:30.970 really should have lost that game. But then it brings 1941 01:41:31.029 --> 01:41:34.329 into the equation, well, the Giants looked bad last week, 1942 01:41:34.350 --> 01:41:37.149 so the public might not really want them as much 1943 01:41:37.189 --> 01:41:41.510 because of that. And the Giants might be scared back 1944 01:41:41.550 --> 01:41:43.680 into focus, right? Because they had a bad effort in 1945 01:41:43.720 --> 01:41:45.680 that game. And it was kind of predictable because even 1946 01:41:45.699 --> 01:41:48.579 though they covered, they definitely should not have covered. I mean, 1947 01:41:48.619 --> 01:41:51.560 that game was eight to six Eagles in the fourth quarter, 1948 01:41:51.600 --> 01:41:54.180 if I remember correctly. I don't know what the fuck 1949 01:41:54.220 --> 01:41:57.270 happened late in that game. I thought we were going 1950 01:41:57.289 --> 01:42:00.449 to get the Eagles cover right as an opinion I 1951 01:42:00.470 --> 01:42:02.149 gave out on the show, not a play or anything. 1952 01:42:02.569 --> 01:42:04.689 But the Giants are in kind of a bad spot 1953 01:42:04.710 --> 01:42:07.510 because they'd upset the Texans the game before that. 1954 01:42:08.149 --> 01:42:08.340 But. 1955 01:42:09.310 --> 01:42:11.060 Let's look

at what the Giants have done at home 1956 01:42:11.600 --> 01:42:13.579 so far. Yes, they have a winning record at home, 1957 01:42:13.640 --> 01:42:16.699 but they barely beat the Titans. They beat the Cardinals, 1958 01:42:17.079 --> 01:42:18.619 which is not really that impressive. And they kind of 1959 01:42:18.720 --> 01:42:20.500 ran away with that game late when the game was, 1960 01:42:20.560 --> 01:42:23.100 I think, closer than that. And they lost to the 1961 01:42:23.319 --> 01:42:25.590 Saints at home and really were getting blown out in 1962 01:42:25.619 --> 01:42:29.130 that game. So the Giants, it hasn't really been that 1963 01:42:29.189 --> 01:42:31.050 impressive at home, even though they've won most of their 1964 01:42:31.069 --> 01:42:34.319 home games. Their best home win was against the Cowboys 1965 01:42:34.359 --> 01:42:37.399 to open the season. You see how bad that Cowboys 1966 01:42:37.439 --> 01:42:40.399 defense is. And yes, I know Washington's defense is also bad, 1967 01:42:41.159 --> 01:42:43.500 but it's better than the Cowboys, so at least give 1968 01:42:43.539 --> 01:42:48.039 them that. Now for Washington, yeah, they're 0-3 on the road. 1969 01:42:48.060 --> 01:42:50.479 I know that's a problem. But you look at their 1970 01:42:50.539 --> 01:42:52.739 road games, yes, they did lose to the Cowboys on 1971 01:42:52.760 --> 01:42:54.420 the road. They lost to the Eagles in the first 1972 01:42:54.460 --> 01:42:58.140 game when the Eagles were still at 100% and they 1973 01:42:58.260 --> 01:43:01.060 almost won that game. So that wasn't a bad result 1974 01:43:01.100 --> 01:43:04.279 for Washington. And then Washington's other loss was a close, 1975 01:43:04.439 --> 01:43:08.109 that close loss I mentioned at the 49ers. So that 1976 01:43:08.149 --> 01:43:11.369 was a good result for Washington there. So you got 1977 01:43:11.390 --> 01:43:13.350 to look at the strength of opponents, right? Like, yes, 1978 01:43:13.449 --> 01:43:16.180 I realize giants are like three and one at home. 1979 01:43:16.229 --> 01:43:19.579 Washington's own three on the road, but the quality of opponents, 1980 01:43:20.680 --> 01:43:23.159 you know, the giants have not had, had difficult opponents 1981 01:43:23.180 --> 01:43:25.529 that they faced at home really in Washington, uh, a 1982 01:43:25.550 --> 01:43:28.310 little bit more difficult of a schedule in their road 1983 01:43:28.350 --> 01:43:31.390 games and just in general. So I'm going to lean 1984 01:43:31.409 --> 01:43:33.630 towards Washington here. The only thing I really don't like 1985 01:43:33.710 --> 01:43:36.409 is Washington coming up that big game against the Rams 1986 01:43:36.430 --> 01:43:39.779 where they hung around close, but they can't overlook this game. 1987 01:43:40.359 --> 01:43:42.600 If they lose this game, they're done. You know what 1988 01:43:42.619 --> 01:43:44.960 I mean? They got to get this win. So I 1989 01:43:45.000 --> 01:43:47.739 like that when it's an underdog, I like that. I 1990 01:43:47.779 --> 01:43:51.180 like urgency as an underdog. I don't like that must-win 1991 01:43:51.199 --> 01:43:53.569 scenario when you're paying too much of a price, and 1992 01:43:53.609 --> 01:43:55.670 it's a favorite and whatever, and they have to win 1993 01:43:55.729 --> 01:43:57.270 and cover a number. I don't like that, but as 1994 01:43:57.310 --> 01:44:01.060 an underdog, yeah. Like, they're... Obviously, you're gonna... You know, 1995 01:44:01.140 --> 01:44:03.460 you're gonna get... Urgency means they're gonna try to win 1996 01:44:03.500 --> 01:44:05.960 the game, and that's all you're asking them to do here, so... 1997 01:44:06.399 --> 01:44:09.100 And getting plus money to do it, so... I'm going 1998 01:44:09.119 --> 01:44:10.479 to lean Washington. And then, of course, we do have 1999 01:44:10.510 --> 01:44:12.630 to talk about the fact that these teams already played 2000 01:44:12.710 --> 01:44:16.229 in Washington. It was a tied game, ridiculously. But if 2001 01:44:16.250 --> 01:44:18.890 you remember what happened in that game, Washington was the 2002 01:44:18.930 --> 01:44:20.979 better team in the game, man, even though the Giants 2003 01:44:21.020 --> 01:44:24.939 did out-game them slightly. Yards per play, Washington was actually 2004 01:44:24.960 --> 01:44:27.500 almost two yards per play better than the Giants were 2005 01:44:27.520 --> 01:44:31.619 in this game. So Washington, their offense was actually... humming 2006 01:44:31.739 --> 01:44:34.619 in this game. The offense was actually better. The Giants 2007 01:44:34.680 --> 01:44:37.020 could not stop Jaden Daniels. He had a good game 2008 01:44:37.039 --> 01:44:39.159 in that game. And if you remember what happened in 2009 01:44:39.189 --> 01:44:42.829 the game, Washington was winning 27-13 in the fourth quarter. 2010 01:44:42.850 --> 01:44:45.869 They somehow blew that game. They were winning the whole game. 2011 01:44:45.890 --> 01:44:48.810 They were winning 19-3 early in the game too. And 2012 01:44:48.829 --> 01:44:52.439 then they were winning 27-13 in the fourth quarter. They 2013 01:44:52.479 --> 01:44:57.319 somehow blew the game. unexpectedly, I know their defense isn't good, 2014 01:44:57.359 --> 01:44:59.479 I get it, but then Washington had one of the 2015 01:44:59.520 --> 01:45:02.039 most embarrassing endings to a game that you'll ever see, 2016 01:45:02.079 --> 01:45:04.239 if you remember what happened in that game, it came 2017 01:45:04.300 --> 01:45:08.029 down to overtime, late in overtime, Washington, it was down 2018 01:45:08.069 --> 01:45:10.569 to a scenario where all they needed was a field 2019 01:45:10.630 --> 01:45:12.890 goal to win the game, late in overtime, and they 2020 01:45:12.909 --> 01:45:16.789 were at the Giants' 24-yard line, and what did they do? 2021 01:45:17.489 --> 01:45:21.199 Oh yeah, Washington had no timeouts left, and Jaden Daniels 2022 01:45:22.539 --> 01:45:24.439 You

know, didn't spike the ball, didn't do anything. I 2023 01:45:24.439 --> 01:45:26.460 don't remember which down it was, but all you got 2024 01:45:26.479 --> 01:45:28.060 to do there is make sure that you set up 2025 01:45:28.100 --> 01:45:29.859 a field goal. There's no excuse to not get a 2026 01:45:29.930 --> 01:45:32.670 field goal off when they had like 16 seconds left. 2027 01:45:32.689 --> 01:45:36.090 And what did they do? They ran another play trying 2028 01:45:36.109 --> 01:45:38.149 to get a little bit closer with no timeouts left. 2029 01:45:38.210 --> 01:45:41.329 And Jaden Daniels took a sack and time ran out. 2030 01:45:41.970 --> 01:45:45.569 Absolutely ridiculous. Some of that is on the coaching. Dan Quinn, 2031 01:45:45.869 --> 01:45:49.029 it's bad discipline. Some of it is on Daniels. He 2032 01:45:49.069 --> 01:45:51.529 should have known better. He should not have done that. 2033 01:45:51.670 --> 01:45:54.590 At that point, just kick the field goal, man. Because 2034 01:45:54.649 --> 01:45:58.399 the worst case scenario at that point is probably that 2035 01:45:58.439 --> 01:46:00.189 the game is going to wind up in a tie. 2036 01:46:00.409 --> 01:46:02.520 The Giants would have had no time left. It was 2037 01:46:02.520 --> 01:46:06.359 16 seconds. So what are you doing? The Giants were almost... 2038 01:46:07.699 --> 01:46:09.300 There was no way the Giants were going to score. 2039 01:46:10.279 --> 01:46:11.840 If you miss the field goal there, the Giants are 2040 01:46:11.859 --> 01:46:14.939 not going to have enough time to score. So I 2041 01:46:14.960 --> 01:46:17.060 don't know what you're doing there. Just kick the field goal. 2042 01:46:17.079 --> 01:46:20.960 It's a makeable field goal. It would have been 40-something yards. 2043 01:46:21.100 --> 01:46:25.600 Very makeable. Yeah, and again, worst-case scenario, still it's going 2044 01:46:25.619 --> 01:46:28.779 to wind up in a tie almost certainly. So very, 2045 01:46:28.819 --> 01:46:31.899 very stupid. But after an embarrassing game like that where 2046 01:46:32.520 --> 01:46:35.079 Washington knows how embarrassing that was, you know they're going 2047 01:46:35.100 --> 01:46:37.079 to be out for redemption after that. That was way 2048 01:46:37.100 --> 01:46:40.210 too embarrassing. That was basically like they lost. At home, 2049 01:46:40.250 --> 01:46:42.510 you know what I mean? That tie in a game 2050 01:46:42.529 --> 01:46:44.729 like that where they should have had the game wrapped up, 2051 01:46:44.789 --> 01:46:47.909 that's unacceptable at home. So I think this does actually 2052 01:46:47.930 --> 01:46:51.229 kind of fall into almost a scenario where you do 2053 01:46:51.270 --> 01:46:55.149 have a divisional road underdog that lost the first game 2054 01:46:55.189 --> 01:46:57.479 at home. That is essentially what Washington is in this game. 2055 01:46:57.520 --> 01:47:00.220 You know, I do like that angle, usually. I didn't 2056 01:47:00.260 --> 01:47:03.779 like it with Arizona against Seattle last week. That was 2057 01:47:03.819 --> 01:47:08.430 a totally different scenario. Injured player theory, etc., And Seattle, yeah, 2058 01:47:08.899 --> 01:47:12.170 Seattle won it covered, yeah, sure. But, yeah, in a 2059 01:47:12.210 --> 01:47:13.710 game like this, yes, I do think it is a 2060 01:47:13.729 --> 01:47:17.069 game where Washington, essentially, you could say they pretty much 2061 01:47:17.170 --> 01:47:20.729 lost the home game here. Now they're going to be 2062 01:47:20.750 --> 01:47:23.550 the road underdog in the second of the divisional matchups. 2063 01:47:23.569 --> 01:47:28.390 That's usually where you want to look. Yeah, yeah, I 2064 01:47:28.409 --> 01:47:30.750 think it's settled. Yeah, I think Washington's the right side here. 2065 01:47:30.770 --> 01:47:33.270 I think that's the stronger case here. Even though they 2066 01:47:33.329 --> 01:47:36.430 did have that tough game last week against Washington, excuse me, 2067 01:47:36.449 --> 01:47:40.020 against the Rams. That's like really the only kind of 2068 01:47:40.159 --> 01:47:43.720 negative here for Washington here. So that and, you know, 2069 01:47:43.739 --> 01:47:45.699 the home road splits don't look good, but I kind 2070 01:47:45.720 --> 01:47:47.920 of explained that as well. So it's not as bad 2071 01:47:47.939 --> 01:47:51.159 as maybe it looks. So yeah, I think Washington is 2072 01:47:51.260 --> 01:47:53.340 probably the right side here. Take the points. I'd rather 2073 01:47:53.380 --> 01:47:56.039 have the three. So I would wait and, you know, 2074 01:47:56.060 --> 01:47:58.199 maybe a three does come up here. Like I said, 2075 01:47:58.850 --> 01:48:01.789 like the professional money might actually be slamming the Giants 2076 01:48:01.829 --> 01:48:03.529 here just to try to get it to three and 2077 01:48:03.569 --> 01:48:05.869 come back on the other side. So we will see 2078 01:48:05.909 --> 01:48:08.989 if that's the case or not, but I don't know. Obviously, 2079 01:48:09.029 --> 01:48:11.109 this game is not going to be on my card, obviously. 2080 01:48:11.430 --> 01:48:14.899 But we'll see if Mr. Thursday Night can return with 2081 01:48:14.960 --> 01:48:17.310 my opinion with this one. The money is also indicating 2082 01:48:17.390 --> 01:48:20.600 slightly towards the under here. uh it opened 43 and 2083 01:48:20.640 --> 01:48:23.720 it already dropped down it's right around this key number 2084 01:48:23.739 --> 01:48:25.680 of 41 now so if you do like the under 2085 01:48:25.720 --> 01:48:28.489 you want to get it under at worst you want 2086 01:48:28.510 --> 01:48:30.569 to get it under 41 i would say because that's 2087 01:48:30.609 --> 01:48:33.640 a key number there um I don't have a feel 2088 01:48:33.840 --> 01:48:36.100 really for the, um, the total. I mean, the argument 2089 01:48:36.119 --> 01:48:38.020 that you can make for the under is the first 2090 01:48:38.079 --> 01:48:41.039

time he seems played, it was 27, 27, right? And 2091 01:48:41.079 --> 01:48:43.520 that was all in regulation. There were no points scored 2092 01:48:43.550 --> 01:48:46.229 in overtime. I don't think so. That game landed 54. 2093 01:48:46.229 --> 01:48:49.170 So you might be saying, well, if that game landed 54, 2094 01:48:49.170 --> 01:48:51.770 how could this game be 41? You know what I mean? So, 2095 01:48:51.989 --> 01:48:56.319 and the total in that game, I think was higher. Um, But, like, 2096 01:48:56.399 --> 01:48:58.180 after all that, like, a higher scoring game, how could 2097 01:48:58.199 --> 01:49:01.199 this game possibly be a lower total than this? You 2098 01:49:01.220 --> 01:49:03.600 know what I mean? So that is indicating something. The 2099 01:49:03.699 --> 01:49:07.279 odds makers are telling you to not buy that score 2100 01:49:07.319 --> 01:49:10.649 in the other game. So, you know, that might be 2101 01:49:10.670 --> 01:49:12.789 an indicator that maybe the under kind of makes sense here, 2102 01:49:12.829 --> 01:49:14.850 kind of, like, fading what you saw the last time 2103 01:49:14.869 --> 01:49:16.970 these teams played each other. But I don't think I 2104 01:49:17.010 --> 01:49:21.539 want to do that because the— washington defense the redskins 2105 01:49:21.579 --> 01:49:23.979 defense i'm gonna call them the redskins so i don't 2106 01:49:24.020 --> 01:49:27.000 acknowledge their new name it's it's bullshit it's woke shit 2107 01:49:27.579 --> 01:49:30.579 um their defense is bad though there's no question about 2108 01:49:30.600 --> 01:49:34.350 that and the giants defense is kind of susceptible to 2109 01:49:34.399 --> 01:49:36.670 to what this washington offense likes to do so i 2110 01:49:36.710 --> 01:49:38.649 don't know although i know washington has a lot of 2111 01:49:38.750 --> 01:49:43.470 injuries on their offense terry mclaurin is injured um who's 2112 01:49:43.489 --> 01:49:45.430 their number their number two wide receiver I think is 2113 01:49:45.489 --> 01:49:48.630 also done so yeah that's all bad I get it 2114 01:49:48.729 --> 01:49:51.510 but I don't know Daniels has played pretty well when 2115 01:49:51.529 --> 01:49:54.270 he's been healthy so I think he's the better QB 2116 01:49:54.310 --> 01:49:56.750 here over JJ McCarthy I know McCarthy's got all this 2117 01:49:56.789 --> 01:49:59.869 hype because he looked unexpectedly good but a lot of 2118 01:49:59.909 --> 01:50:02.569 that was in that garbage time comeback against the Saints 2119 01:50:03.149 --> 01:50:05.060 I don't put much weight into that the Saints also 2120 01:50:05.079 --> 01:50:07.279 can't stop the pass so I don't care about that 2121 01:50:07.319 --> 01:50:09.430 that much and then McCarthy has kind of come back 2122 01:50:09.470 --> 01:50:11.899 down to earth recently. So yeah, I think Daniels is 2123 01:50:11.909 --> 01:50:15.119 definitely the better quarterback here at least. So yeah, I've 2124 01:50:15.140 --> 01:50:20.229 just figured I should mention that as well. Uh, I mean, 2125 01:50:20.770 --> 01:50:22.409 if you forced me to give you an opinion on 2126 01:50:22.430 --> 01:50:26.359 the total, uh, Yeah, I think I would say under. 2127 01:50:26.460 --> 01:50:28.460 And the other reason for the under, I would say, 2128 01:50:28.479 --> 01:50:31.699 is these teams are familiar with each other. When there's 2129 01:50:31.720 --> 01:50:34.159 a lot of familiarity between the two teams, the under 2130 01:50:34.199 --> 01:50:36.710 makes more sense because the defenses already know how to 2131 01:50:36.770 --> 01:50:39.189 defend against what they're going to see, so they don't 2132 01:50:39.210 --> 01:50:43.170 have to, like, it's easier to prepare for a team 2133 01:50:43.189 --> 01:50:45.289 that you see twice every year, you know what I mean? 2134 01:50:45.710 --> 01:50:47.630 The one caveat to that, I will say, is that 2135 01:50:48.020 --> 01:50:50.720 the Giants have a different coach and a different, you know, 2136 01:50:51.550 --> 01:50:54.159 The Giants are totally different this year, right? With Harbaugh, 2137 01:50:54.180 --> 01:50:56.789 and now it's the McCarthy offense here. But all that 2138 01:50:56.810 --> 01:51:00.010 being said, it's still not an impressive offense. You know, 2139 01:51:00.090 --> 01:51:03.520 Scadaboo hasn't really been that good. Yeah, they got Malik 2140 01:51:03.560 --> 01:51:07.260 Neighbors and stuff, but yeah, I mean, this Giants offense 2141 01:51:07.359 --> 01:51:11.180 does leave something to be desired. And especially with Jackson 2142 01:51:11.220 --> 01:51:14.000 Dart not there. Yeah, I think McCarthy's definitely a drop-off 2143 01:51:14.039 --> 01:51:16.649 from that. And by the way, the Giants offense last week, 2144 01:51:17.100 --> 01:51:20.149 they were not good against the Eagles. And the only 2145 01:51:20.229 --> 01:51:24.609 touchdown the Giants scored last week, McCarthy didn't even... He 2146 01:51:24.630 --> 01:51:26.930 was not even in. McCarthy was out of the game 2147 01:51:26.949 --> 01:51:29.109 at that point. That was that injury he had, and 2148 01:51:29.130 --> 01:51:32.449 you saw that video of him collapsing for no reason 2149 01:51:32.489 --> 01:51:35.520 on the sideline. Something went on with his hamstring. I 2150 01:51:35.539 --> 01:51:37.500 don't know what that was, but the one touchdown the 2151 01:51:37.560 --> 01:51:40.859 Giants scored in that game, Jameis Winston actually led that drive. 2152 01:51:41.239 --> 01:51:46.960 So that is not a good sign for the Giants 2153 01:51:46.979 --> 01:51:51.829 with J.J. McCarthy here. I still don't think he's that good. Winston, uh, 2154 01:51:52.010 --> 01:51:53.850 he's got a really good arm and he is a 2155 01:51:54.250 --> 01:51:57.479 hilarious dude. I like him too. And I think he 2156 01:51:57.500 --> 01:51:59.899 should have gotten a better shot in the NFL. You know, 2157 01:51:59.920 --> 01:52:02.779 it's just that he throws

way too many interceptions and 2158 01:52:02.819 --> 01:52:05.119 that's why he hasn't been able to stick with like 2159 01:52:05.199 --> 01:52:07.579 one particular team or whatever, a stick as a starter, 2160 01:52:07.619 --> 01:52:10.810 because he's just, he just, he's yeah, he's way too 2161 01:52:10.890 --> 01:52:14.010 erratic and he throws way too many picks, but his 2162 01:52:14.170 --> 01:52:17.689 arm is awesome. Like he could definitely throw. Yeah. With 2163 01:52:17.750 --> 01:52:21.720 the best of them out there. So, um, I think 2164 01:52:21.760 --> 01:52:23.560 that's pretty much all I got on that game. A 2165 01:52:23.619 --> 01:52:26.420 lot of info on that game. But yeah, the other 2166 01:52:26.439 --> 01:52:28.479 thing I will say though is, you know, the Thursday 2167 01:52:28.539 --> 01:52:30.229 night game, I was talking about how the home team 2168 01:52:30.279 --> 01:52:34.130 usually has an edge, an extra edge because there's less 2169 01:52:34.229 --> 01:52:36.170 prep time, right? So the home team usually has a 2170 01:52:36.189 --> 01:52:39.050 little bit of an edge because they know their own 2171 01:52:39.109 --> 01:52:41.010 stadium and they don't have to travel as much and 2172 01:52:41.029 --> 01:52:43.020 they usually get like one extra day of prep time. 2173 01:52:43.399 --> 01:52:47.500 But in a divisional game, that's less emphasized. Like in 2174 01:52:47.539 --> 01:52:51.430 a divisional game, The road team is familiar with it, right? 2175 01:52:51.449 --> 01:52:53.670 Like the road team is familiar with this travel. They 2176 01:52:53.689 --> 01:52:56.189 go to the stadium every year. They're familiar with the 2177 01:52:56.229 --> 01:52:58.550 stadium and they're familiar with the offense that they're going 2178 01:52:58.569 --> 01:53:02.210 to face pretty much. So it makes the prep easier. 2179 01:53:02.270 --> 01:53:05.050 So the home team is a little bit less of 2180 01:53:05.069 --> 01:53:08.149 a bigger edge when it's a divisional game. It's bigger 2181 01:53:08.189 --> 01:53:12.029 for the home team when there's a lot of unfamiliarity there. 2182 01:53:12.449 --> 01:53:14.670 So that's what I will say. But yes, again, I 2183 01:53:14.729 --> 01:53:17.470 said the one caveat to that is Washington has only 2184 01:53:17.510 --> 01:53:21.130 seen this Giants offense once. But they actually did okay 2185 01:53:21.170 --> 01:53:23.560 against the Giants for the most part. But that was 2186 01:53:23.600 --> 01:53:27.399 a Winston offense, though. But still, I don't think McCarthy 2187 01:53:27.439 --> 01:53:30.840 is really much of an upgrade, to be honest. So, whatever. 2188 01:53:30.880 --> 01:53:33.199 And the Giants didn't score for the majority of that 2189 01:53:33.239 --> 01:53:36.020 game in Washington. The Giants were not doing a whole 2190 01:53:36.060 --> 01:53:39.050 lot on offense. Although Winston did kind of explode late 2191 01:53:39.060 --> 01:53:43.510 in that game. But, yeah. Whatever. My lean is Washington 2192 01:53:43.529 --> 01:53:46.140 in the game, but I don't love it. So that's 2193 01:53:46.159 --> 01:53:49.739 what I got. Long show today. We're only on two plays. 2194 01:53:49.760 --> 01:53:51.340 I thought it was going to be a quicker show 2195 01:53:51.359 --> 01:53:53.640 because there's not a lot going on on Thursday. But 2196 01:53:55.560 --> 01:53:58.869 that was a long– I think I covered, like, everything 2197 01:53:58.909 --> 01:54:01.289 in that game. That was a long explanation of that game. 2198 01:54:01.649 --> 01:54:05.470 Long analysis. We got two plays, both in hockey. We're 2199 01:54:05.489 --> 01:54:08.350 going to make a split bet puck line money line 2200 01:54:08.369 --> 01:54:11.590 on the Toronto Maple Leafs. They've got to stop fucking me, man. 2201 01:54:11.630 --> 01:54:14.050 The Maple Leafs have not done well for me recently, 2202 01:54:14.069 --> 01:54:16.189 so let's get back on the right track with that. 2203 01:54:16.210 --> 01:54:18.050 And we're going to take the Blues as well on 2204 01:54:18.069 --> 01:54:20.850 the money line and fade Utah in what I think 2205 01:54:20.890 --> 01:54:22.869 is a bad spot. Those will be my two plays 2206 01:54:22.890 --> 01:54:25.470 for the day. I know that if we want to 2207 01:54:25.510 --> 01:54:27.220 win on the day, pretty much we've got to go 2208 01:54:27.229 --> 01:54:31.300 2-0 here. I think if we win the Toronto one, 2209 01:54:31.720 --> 01:54:34.300 if that actually winds up being a winner... And we'll 2210 01:54:34.319 --> 01:54:36.300 still have a slight win. Even if the St. Louis 2211 01:54:36.359 --> 01:54:39.039 game lose, it'll be a very small win, but because 2212 01:54:39.079 --> 01:54:40.899 that one's an underdog. Yeah. We'd still have a very 2213 01:54:41.060 --> 01:54:43.640 small win if that was the case, but the goal 2214 01:54:43.680 --> 01:54:45.340 is to go two and all with these two plays. 2215 01:54:45.359 --> 01:54:47.180 And that's really the only way you can really have 2216 01:54:47.220 --> 01:54:49.720 a winning day here. So let's get it done. Learn 2217 01:54:49.739 --> 01:54:52.119 to talk on Twitter, Instagram, Tik TOK. You can check 2218 01:54:52.140 --> 01:54:55.149 me out all those places, like subscribe to the channel here, 2219 01:54:55.699 --> 01:55:00.470 boost this thing up, get some more new faces in here, man. Um, Randy, yeah, 2220 01:55:00.510 --> 01:55:03.760 thanks for hanging out again, man. Love the new regulars. 2221 01:55:03.800 --> 01:55:07.300 Hell yeah. Yeah, I'm glad you enjoy the show, man. 2222 01:55:07.319 --> 01:55:10.039 I appreciate it. Hopefully some of the old regulars come 2223 01:55:10.060 --> 01:55:11.960 back as well. Saab, good to see you as well 2224 01:55:12.439 --> 01:55:15.510 in the chat there. Dirty Sock sometimes still shows up. 2225 01:55:15.560 --> 01:55:17.829 I don't know. He might be working. He might be busy. 2226 01:55:17.869 --> 01:55:19.710 I don't

know. One of the other regulars that we've 2227 01:55:19.729 --> 01:55:22.289 had for a while in the morning shows here. Let's 2228 01:55:22.310 --> 01:55:26.279 get more. uh, more subs, man. Uh, yeah. Uh, leave, 2229 01:55:26.359 --> 01:55:29.909 you know, good comments, whatever. Listen on audio to Apple, Spotify, Spreaker. 2230 01:55:29.970 --> 01:55:33.329 That all helps me out. Numbers. We're seeing like gradual 2231 01:55:33.390 --> 01:55:35.250 increase of these numbers. So I want, I want to 2232 01:55:35.270 --> 01:55:38.569 keep that trajectory going. Um, we're not done yet, man. Let's, 2233 01:55:38.609 --> 01:55:42.140 let's have a big increase somehow. Let's do it. Let's spike. 2234 01:55:42.659 --> 01:55:45.220 Let's somehow go viral and get everybody's already kind of 2235 01:55:45.239 --> 01:55:48.720 getting mad of just because, well, yeah, I mean, I 2236 01:55:48.720 --> 01:55:50.060 already talked about at the top of the show, I'm 2237 01:55:50.090 --> 01:55:51.770 not going to do it again, but you know, um, 2238 01:55:52.350 --> 01:55:57.869 people be mad just because they don't like my picks. Okay. Um, whatever, man. Um, 2239 01:55:58.850 --> 01:56:01.869 people take it like it's a personal attack on them. Um, 2240 01:56:01.989 --> 01:56:04.039 cause maybe it's their team I'm going against or dude, 2241 01:56:04.399 --> 01:56:07.119 I don't even know who you are. Okay. And yeah, 2242 01:56:07.140 --> 01:56:09.100 there are some teams that I hate. I make that 2243 01:56:09.140 --> 01:56:11.100 pretty clear on the show, but usually if I'm picking 2244 01:56:11.119 --> 01:56:17.170 against the team, it's just because of the spot or whatever. Um, whatever. Uh, Yeah, 2245 01:56:17.250 --> 01:56:19.489 I got my Uke stuff covered in Uke on YouTube 2246 01:56:19.569 --> 01:56:21.840 and Patreon. Learn to tote if you want to get 2247 01:56:21.880 --> 01:56:24.340 some bonus Uke stuff for now. Got to figure out 2248 01:56:24.380 --> 01:56:27.300 how to improve all that stuff, though. And my voice 2249 01:56:27.359 --> 01:56:31.270 is not good right now. And Losercast every Tuesday night. 2250 01:56:31.300 --> 01:56:33.399 And I will be on a couple of podcasts coming up. 2251 01:56:34.460 --> 01:56:36.020 I think I'm going to be recording, or I might 2252 01:56:36.100 --> 01:56:38.640 wind up being on the show live, I guess, late 2253 01:56:38.699 --> 01:56:43.439 tonight on Stoner Jesus' show, which I believe is also 2254 01:56:43.479 --> 01:56:46.720 the name of a band, Stoner Jesus. But this is 2255 01:56:46.739 --> 01:56:48.800 a guy who does a podcast, and he's exactly what 2256 01:56:48.819 --> 01:56:52.399 you think. He's a long-haired, bearded, older dude who is 2257 01:56:52.460 --> 01:56:55.180 a complete stoner. I've been on his show way back 2258 01:56:55.199 --> 01:56:57.510 in the past I was on his show. Um, yeah, 2259 01:56:57.520 --> 01:56:59.210 he's a funny dude. So I think I'm going to 2260 01:56:59.229 --> 01:57:02.229 be on his show. I actually, I think that's, yeah, that's, 2261 01:57:02.289 --> 01:57:05.770 I think that's tonight. And then, uh, tomorrow I think 2262 01:57:05.789 --> 01:57:08.390 I am going to be back on, uh, this dude 2263 01:57:08.590 --> 01:57:11.590 Snoop on one of his shows. He does a sports show, 2264 01:57:11.630 --> 01:57:15.159 but he also does a, uh, non sports related show 2265 01:57:15.199 --> 01:57:18.859 that is, I don't know, more of just, uh, Shoot 2266 01:57:18.880 --> 01:57:21.359 the Shit type of show, which I'm guessing it's going 2267 01:57:21.380 --> 01:57:23.100 to be that one, but I have no idea. I 2268 01:57:23.100 --> 01:57:25.350 think I'm going to be, I guess, on his show 2269 01:57:25.390 --> 01:57:28.010 on Friday at some point. So I don't know. I 2270 01:57:28.029 --> 01:57:31.739 forget what the name of that show even is. I apologize. But, yeah, 2271 01:57:31.819 --> 01:57:35.779 I'm going to be on a couple of shows coming up. Yeah, 2272 01:57:35.880 --> 01:57:39.670 sort of making the rounds again. Yes, that's going to 2273 01:57:39.710 --> 01:57:44.470 do it. Randy, thanks for hanging out. Peace out for now.

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