Full Transcript for Scotland's Coefficient... Should We Be Worried?

lose to a team that's ranked fourth, you don't lose that many points because it's seen as a game you were meant to lose. 00:02:16.800 --> 00:02:27.360 So the FIFA rankings are probably fairer in that regard, I suppose, but they've got nothing to do with club football, which is administered by UEFA, and they've got the UEFA rankings. 00:02:27.439 --> 00:02:37.759 And yes, that involves all 55 leagues and all clubs within those 55 leagues that have been in Europe in the last five years. 00:02:37.919 --> 00:02:42.400 So we will have a ranking for Rangers, Celtic, Aberdeen, Hearts, Hibs, St. 00:02:42.639 --> 00:02:50.479 Miren, anyone that's been in Europe in the last five years, as soon as they've not had European football for five years, they are no longer in the rankings. 00:02:50.639 --> 00:02:55.360 So when they rejoin, so Motherwell, for example, are hopefully going to get in Europe this summer. 00:02:55.520 --> 00:02:59.280 I think that will be them rejoining, having not been in Europe for five years. 00:02:59.439 --> 00:03:05.439 So they will be ranked with 20% of the nation's total, so 20% of Scotland's total. 00:03:05.520 --> 00:03:14.400 So if your own club and ranking isn't enough to put you on that rankings board, you don't start with zero points, you start with 20% of your country. 00:03:18.639 --> 00:03:32.319 We try and be as optimistic as we can be about Scottish football, um but obviously, like you're kind of saying that this is us moving into a much more challenging, difficult area now that we're dropping to 18th in the ranking. 00:03:32.719 --> 00:03:39.360 What's the likelihood of Scotland as a country being able to start moving back up that table now? 00:03:39.599 --> 00:03:47.680 And just as a kind of secondary question, are clubs from countries like Scotland at a bit of a disadvantage? 00:03:47.840 --> 00:03:59.680 Because I know that there are certain um elements of the coefficient that can be affected by automatic uh uh qualification into group stages of tournaments and things like that. 00:03:59.759 --> 00:04:05.599 So it it feels to me like it's slightly more weighted to clubs that will perennially be involved anyway. 00:04:05.680 --> 00:04:11.680 They're kind of giving a leg up to help them maintain that, um not just as clubs but as countries as well. 00:04:12.639 --> 00:04:15.520 Yeah, well, there's two key aspects to what you said there. 00:04:15.680 --> 00:04:19.120 It absolutely is designed, I suppose, to maintain the status quo. 00:04:19.279 --> 00:04:28.399 So the teams at the top of the rankings, that's England, Spain, Germany, and Italy, have been there for 25 years or whatever, and they'll always finish in the top two. 00:04:28.639 --> 00:04:37.199 So, like you say, automatic qualification guarantees you X number of matches and it guarantees you coefficient points that you're gonna earn. 00:04:37.360 --> 00:04:46.079 So even if England or Germany or Italy had some of their teams having a bad season, they will have so many teams in Europe that they're gonna maintain that high ranking. 00:04:46.319 --> 00:04:50.160 So it's completely unattainable for anybody to sort of break in. 00:04:50.319 --> 00:04:56.240 Beyond that, you've got France who are pretty good recently, like PSG just won the Champions League. 00:04:56.399 --> 00:04:58.560 They're not gonna break into that top four either. 00:04:58.639 --> 00:05:01.439 And then below that, you've got the likes of Portugal and Belgium. 00:05:01.519 --> 00:05:10.800 No matter what they do, they will never break in to that elite, um, almost guaranteed, which means they'll always be limited to just one automatic Champions League place. 00:05:10.959 --> 00:05:21.360 Whereas, as we're seeing this season, England at the top of the rankings are gonna have four, five, maybe even six Champions League automatic places, depending on who wins the competitions. 00:05:21.519 --> 00:05:30.240 So, yes, it is weighted for the nations at the top because they'll always be earning points no matter how poor a season their respective clubs have. 00:05:30.399 --> 00:05:41.519 Um, but as you come further down to where we are kind of at, which is aiming for the top 10, unlikely to get there in the next sort of 10 years, but really needing to stay inside the top 15. 00:05:41.839 --> 00:05:44.399 So there's two aspects to it. 00:05:44.560 --> 00:05:51.759 Dropping out means that we'll have more qualifiers, and the nation's coefficient earns points in qualifiers. 00:05:51.920 --> 00:06:01.199 So where Celtic were benefiting from automatic Champions League qualification, if they then had a bad Champions League campaign, they've not earned very many points. 00:06:01.439 --> 00:06:12.240 Whereas, just take Rangers as an example, if they had four rounds to reach the the same competition and then have a poor campaign, they've at least banked all those points. 00:06:12.399 --> 00:06:21.839 So the season where they both got into the Champions League in 22-23, I think it was Celtic only got two points, two draws against Shaktar, and Rangers got no points. 00:06:22.079 --> 00:06:30.560 Rangers actually earned more points towards the country's coefficient because they had to beat PSV, I think it was, in the qualifiers to get there. 00:06:30.720 --> 00:06:35.680 So the qualifiers are helpful because it means there's more matches that generate points. 00:06:35.839 --> 00:06:41.920 Now the points in qualifiers are worth half as much, so they're not as lucrative, but it is helpful. 00:06:42.319 --> 00:06:54.399 So in the past, sorry, in the past where we've um dropped out the rankings, we've been able to climb back up fairly quickly because we've been able to win the qualifiers and Rangers in Celtic could do it on their own. 00:06:54.560 --> 00:06:59.759 The only two teams getting into the group stages every year is doing all right, and that brought us up the rankings. 00:07:00.000 --> 00:07:04.319 But this is the first time we've dropped out since

the introduction of the Conference League. 00:07:04.480 --> 00:07:21.040 So having a third tournament means that all our peers, all our rival nations across Europe, that previously, if they had lost in a Europa League qualifier, that was them out of Europe, they're now dropping into the conference league, and every nation has taken advantage of that. 00:07:21.199 --> 00:07:24.000 So Poland are a key rival of ours now. 00:07:24.160 --> 00:07:27.680 They had, I think, four teams get out of the conference league phase. 00:07:27.839 --> 00:07:33.600 And winning a match in the conference league is worth the same number of coefficient points as winning a match in the Champions League. 00:07:33.759 --> 00:07:39.439 So they have absolutely rocky stead up the rankings to the point we're not going to be able to catch them for a few years. 00:07:39.680 --> 00:07:47.920 So for us to rise up the rankings, as everybody says, like the coefficient cyclical, it goes in cycles, you are likely to climb back up. 00:07:48.160 --> 00:07:53.199 That is only true if we have more than just Rangers and Celtic getting into these competitions. 00:07:53.360 --> 00:07:56.000 We're going to need Hearts, Hibs, Motherwell. 00:07:56.160 --> 00:08:01.040 You're going to need at least two teams, I think, getting into the conference league and then getting out. 00:08:01.120 --> 00:08:03.040 So finishing in the top 24. 00:08:03.199 --> 00:08:09.680 We are unfortunately the only country that hasn't had uh within a sort of band of nations that we're competing with. 00:08:09.759 --> 00:08:14.000 We're the only one that hasn't actually got out of the conference league into the group stage. 00:08:14.240 --> 00:08:15.839 So, yeah, long answer to your question. 00:08:15.920 --> 00:08:18.079 Yeah, it's weighted to those at the top. 00:08:18.399 --> 00:08:28.959 At our level, it's helpful to have more matches, so more points, but we need to take advantage of that and have um more than just two teams actually winning matches and going forward. 00:08:29.199 --> 00:08:45.519 Uh well that that was something I wanted to ask you about because I it it seems to me that there's there's almost a bit of a vicious circle that that happens, which is say I and historically it has obviously been Rangers and Celtic that have predominantly won the points in the coefficients. 00:08:45.840 --> 00:09:01.600 But say the point where there were four Scottish teams qualifying for the tournament, uh the various tournaments, uh and then I I think uh Rangers performance in particular kind of spiked it, which boosted the country's coefficient to a point where there were additional places, so we moved from four teams to five teams. 00:09:02.000 --> 00:09:11.440 But sometimes those teams that are now entering European competition don't really have the experience of playing uh at that level or that type of football. 00:09:11.679 --> 00:09:24.639 Um I even see sometimes being used to that type of officiating, whereas they might get away with stuff in Scotland they don't in Europe and they can fall at the first hurdle often, which obviously is detrimental to the overall coefficient. 00:09:25.120 --> 00:09:41.120 Is it something that's a bit of a vicious circle like that where almost like the better we do um the more teams will qualify, but it really needs those teams to be hitting the ground running and performing straight away in order to maintain or even strengthen our coefficient as a country? 00:09:42.080 --> 00:09:43.679 Yeah, it's a really good point. 00:09:43.840 --> 00:09:50.960 So the fundamental to it is that a coefficient point is uh whatever you earn, so you win earn two points for a win. 00:09:51.120 --> 00:09:54.960 That's divided by the number of teams you entered in Europe at the start of the season. 00:09:55.039 --> 00:09:57.919 So even if they're out now, however you entered at the start. 00:09:58.000 --> 00:10:03.279 So when Scotland enters five teams, a win is two divided by five, zero point four points. 00:10:03.519 --> 00:10:08.960 When we enter four teams, which will be the case as of next summer, a win is then worth slightly more. 00:10:09.039 --> 00:10:12.080 So it's now worth 0.5 points, so a little bit more. 00:10:12.240 --> 00:10:18.720 And the points you raise are all totally spot on in terms of efficiency in the experience of being in Europe. 00:10:18.879 --> 00:10:21.200 But the main thing for me is like budgetary. 00:10:21.279 --> 00:10:25.759 So they they know that by getting to the league phase, they're going to earn five million pounds. 00:10:25.840 --> 00:10:30.879 And to some of our clubs, Sit Marin, for example, that's like nearly a whole year's turnover. 00:10:31.039 --> 00:10:42.240 But they can't they can't put their wage bill up to one that's going to compete in European football based on having three qualifiers in one season because they know it's unlikely they're going to get there again. 00:10:42.480 --> 00:10:58.080 Aberdeen or Hearts, who have sort of traded um the automatic state uh automatic entry to the the conference league over the last few years, they probably could, so they've all sort of raised their wage bills, knowing that it is likely that they're going to be challenging for Europe regularly. 00:10:58.240 --> 00:11:01.360 But take Dunfermline this season, they're in the Scottish Cup final. 00:11:01.600 --> 00:11:04.960 If they win that, they are our third entrant entrant. 00:11:05.039 --> 00:11:09.120 So they enter at the third highest stage of the five countries we enter. 00:11:09.279 --> 00:11:14.639 Yeah, if they reach the league phase, they'll earn another another five million, they'll earn at least a million in the qualifiers. 00:11:14.799 --> 00:11:25.039 But we can't expect Dunfermline to raise their wage bill by three, four, five million in the hope that right then they get promoted at the championship, then they build next season to go again for European football. 00:11:25.120 --> 00:11:26.559 It

just isn't going to happen. 00:11:26.879 --> 00:11:33.360 So while I'm always a supporter of all clubs and I want everybody's fan base to experience what St. 00:11:33.519 --> 00:11:41.200 Murray got last year, what or two years ago, what Dundee United got last year, what Dunferman maybe might get this summer, what Motherwell will get this summer. 00:11:41.360 --> 00:11:43.279 That's superb for those fan bases. 00:11:43.440 --> 00:11:56.559 But yeah, from a coefficient point of view, if they're just going to go in, not have the budget, not have the experience, not used to that level of competition and lose after a couple of games, then yeah, it is detrimental to the coefficient, I suppose. 00:11:56.799 --> 00:12:02.879 The only way around it for a nation like us is that we just continue to rise the standard of the league. 00:12:02.960 --> 00:12:07.759 So we continue to increase the broadcasting deals, the sponsorship, everything gets bigger. 00:12:07.840 --> 00:12:15.600 So everyone's sort of baseline in terms of what they spend on players and the quality of the division is higher, so that when Dundee United or St. 00:12:15.759 --> 00:12:20.480 Mirren enter into Europe, it's not a concern because they're playing at a decent enough average. 00:12:20.639 --> 00:12:26.159 So yeah, it can be detrimental, but hopefully in time uh the game continues to improve. 00:12:26.240 --> 00:12:30.559 We have three horse title races every year, which will raise interest and bring more money. 00:12:30.720 --> 00:12:37.120 And then the saying of a rising tide lifts all boats or whatever, everybody's just a little bit better anyway. 00:12:37.360 --> 00:12:41.919 Money flows through the game better, and hopefully we can then have have everybody sort of competing. 00:12:42.159 --> 00:12:49.600 But yeah, totally get your point that when we have the five teams in, the fifth team rarely gets gets more than a round or two. 00:12:50.639 --> 00:12:52.879 Let me look to next season then, Giv. 00:12:53.039 --> 00:12:55.919 Um, and kind of humor me here as I try and work this out. 00:12:56.080 --> 00:13:00.240 But tell me if where we are in terms of each position, right? 00:13:00.480 --> 00:13:06.000 So whoever wins the league, the champions go into the Champions League playoff round, is that correct? 00:13:06.720 --> 00:13:12.559 Yeah, so if we're talking about next season as in the qualifiers and this summer, then yeah, that's exactly right. 00:13:13.120 --> 00:13:14.320 That's so two games. 00:13:14.720 --> 00:13:18.080 That that's two well, yeah, we'll we'll get to that in a minute. 00:13:18.159 --> 00:13:20.799 But yeah, so that's two games to qualify for the competition. 00:13:21.039 --> 00:13:24.799 Second place going to the Champions League second qualifying round. 00:13:24.879 --> 00:13:28.000 So that's six games that they have to qualify. 00:13:28.480 --> 00:13:40.080 Now Scottish Cup winners, if it is Dunfermline, go into the Europa League third qualifying round, so

that's four matches to qualify. 00:13:40.720 --> 00:13:57.600 And then as a result, if it is Dunfermline, third sorry, yeah, third place and fourth place, so Celtic and Motherwell as it stands right now, would go into the Conference League second qualifying round, which is six games to qualify. 00:13:57.679 --> 00:13:58.720 Is that correct? 00:13:59.279 --> 00:14:02.639 You absolutely nailed you absolutely nailed all of that. 00:14:02.720 --> 00:14:02.879 Yeah. 00:14:03.039 --> 00:14:07.919 So where you're saying six games, that's obviously three ties where they play two games and a tie. 00:14:08.000 --> 00:14:09.200 So yeah, yeah, spot on. 00:14:09.279 --> 00:14:18.080 And the key thing to the scenario you've just described there of Dunferlin win the cup is that fifth in the league, Hibs as it stands, wouldn't enter in Europe. 00:14:18.240 --> 00:14:23.360 So we would be replacing Hibs essentially with Dunfermline as one of our European entrants. 00:14:23.679 --> 00:14:31.039 So then if Celtic do win the league, uh sorry, if Celtic do win the cup my this is where my brain stops. 00:14:31.200 --> 00:14:37.360 So Celtic win the cup, they go in as well it depends if they win the league, doesn't it? 00:14:37.519 --> 00:14:42.879 If they win the cup but they do not win the league, they go into the Europa League qualifiers. 00:14:43.600 --> 00:14:44.240 And then it goes down. 00:14:45.440 --> 00:14:50.159 And then it goes down to Motherbull and Hibbs in that case for the other two places. 00:14:50.559 --> 00:14:52.320 Yeah, exactly right. 00:14:52.480 --> 00:14:59.759 So for Celtic, they would be hoping that come the Scottish Cup final, it doesn't matter because in terms of Europe, because they've finished in the top two. 00:14:59.919 --> 00:15:03.600 As you rightly said, the top two enters in the Champions League qualifiers. 00:15:03.840 --> 00:15:13.039 From a Celtic point of view, third and winning the cup is Europa League, third and not winning the cup is Conference League, because then Fermland would have the Europa League. 00:15:13.120 --> 00:15:14.960 So yeah, you've you've absolutely nailed it. 00:15:15.039 --> 00:15:20.960 That's what's on offer at the end of this season for the qualifiers in this summer, unless it's Rangers that win the league. 00:15:21.200 --> 00:15:25.679 That just before we go into Rangers, that is a wild fall for Celtic. 00:15:25.840 --> 00:15:40.720 If they come third or don't win the cup, to go into the Conference League second round qualifying after being in the Champions League, uh they are a Champions League team, but to play six uh games to qualify for Europe that sorry, that's just wild. 00:15:41.600 --> 00:15:43.360 That just shows to me the fall. 00:15:43.600 --> 00:15:46.639 I guess the fall they've had this season, but also the fall just in general. 00:15:46.879 --> 00:15:49.279 But yeah, let's go on to this weird anomaly. 00:15:49.440 --> 00:15:51.919 Um Finn, you're more across this than me, aren't you? 00:15:52.159 --> 00:15:58.960 Uh well yeah, I mean you ended your your um answer there, Gav, by saying unless Rangers win the league. 00:15:59.039 --> 00:16:17.440 So there is a really peculiar anomaly that I'm wondering if you can kind of explain in terms of next season, which is um and this only applies to Rangers, it doesn't apply to Hearts or Celtics should they win the title, but there is a chance that Rangers can gain direct entry into the Champions League group stage. 00:16:17.519 --> 00:16:18.240 Is that correct? 00:16:19.519 --> 00:16:28.159 Yeah, so previously, if uh the Champions League winner automatically qualified for next year's Champions League through their domestic league, i.e. 00:16:28.320 --> 00:16:37.120 they finished in the top four in England or whatever, then they vacate a space because there's a uh the the holders are automatically re-entered in the competition. 00:16:37.279 --> 00:16:42.080 Previously, that was always given to the country in 11th, so it didn't matter the clubs within it. 00:16:42.240 --> 00:16:47.600 Whoever won the league in um the 11th ranked league got this spare slot. 00:16:47.679 --> 00:17:01.600 But when they reformatted the group stages, made the league phase and everything, one of the changes they did was that they felt that that penalized big clubs in smaller divisions, and Shaktar Donetsk are probably a key example of that, especially since the war. 00:17:01.840 --> 00:17:05.759 Ukraine have really slipped down the rankings, but Shaktar are a huge team. 00:17:05.920 --> 00:17:12.319 So because Ukraine are not going to get back to 11th in the rankings, that door was closed for Shaktar as an example. 00:17:12.480 --> 00:17:18.400 So they've changed it to make it that it's the champion with the highest coefficient, irrespective of where your league ranks. 00:17:18.640 --> 00:17:20.400 Your league could be ranked 50th. 00:17:20.559 --> 00:17:27.440 As long as you are the the top ranking in terms of UEFA's coefficient, uh, you would get that vacated spot. 00:17:27.599 --> 00:17:36.960 So the Cause Rangers' last five years in Europe have been like historic in terms of uh they've never had this consistent run of doing so well in Europe. 00:17:37.039 --> 00:17:41.519 They reached the Europa League final five seasons ago, so that's still within their coefficient. 00:17:41.680 --> 00:17:45.759 They got to the quarterfinals last year uh out of the league phase the year before that. 00:17:45.839 --> 00:17:47.200 So they've done really well. 00:17:47.279 --> 00:17:51.359 Uh, they are actually right up there as one of the top ranked champions. 00:17:51.519 --> 00:17:55.359 However, Olympiakos are ranked above them. 00:17:55.599 --> 00:18:07.279 So if Olympiakos win the Greek league, everything we're about to discuss is null and void because it will go to Olympiakos, regardless if Rangers win the league or not, because Olympiakos would be the highest ranked champion. 00:18:07.519 --> 00:18:17.519 Olympiakos

are five points off the off the top spot in Greece at the time of recording, and so they may not win the league, which means it would then drop to the next champion. 00:18:17.680 --> 00:18:26.799 That would be Rangers if they win the Scottish Premiership, then that's all well and good for Rangers, you're automatically into the Champions League. 00:18:26.960 --> 00:18:34.160 However, Shaktar Donetsk are still in Europe, so they can still earn some more points, and they're really close to Rangers now. 00:18:34.240 --> 00:18:37.359 They're only three coefficient points behind Rangers. 00:18:37.519 --> 00:18:40.880 So it's two points for a win and one point for a draw. 00:18:41.039 --> 00:18:44.960 They've got a Conference League semi-final coming up against Crystal Palace. 00:18:45.119 --> 00:18:53.599 So they have to put Crystal Palace out and reach the Conference League final, but it it's possible that would then have them above Rangers in the rankings. 00:18:53.759 --> 00:18:55.359 So the same thing would then apply. 00:18:55.599 --> 00:18:57.759 Shaktar have to win the Ukrainian League. 00:18:57.839 --> 00:19:01.839 And they're they're only joint top at the time of recording with about eight games left. 00:19:02.000 --> 00:19:10.799 So again, it might not transpire that Shaktar win their league, but if they do and they're above Rangers, the point, the entry point would go to them. 00:19:10.960 --> 00:19:16.319 So to summarise, yeah, Rangers could get automatic Champions League uh qualification. 00:19:16.480 --> 00:19:18.799 They'd have to win the Scottish Premiership first. 00:19:19.039 --> 00:19:31.599 Olympiakos would have to not win the Greek League, and then either Shaktar don't win the Ukrainian League or don't earn three coefficient points across the semi-final to overtake Rangers in the rankings. 00:19:31.920 --> 00:19:44.880 Just quickly on the maths there for Shaktar Denesk against Palace, do they only get enough points if they reach the final or if they win the Conference League final, or is like one victory out of the three enough? 00:19:45.440 --> 00:19:57.039 So they're exactly three points behind, and the tiebreaker when two clubs or two nations are have the same points in a over a five-year period is how many points were earned in the most recent season. 00:19:57.119 --> 00:20:01.839 And Shaktar obviously are in a semi-final, Rangers got pumped out in the league phase. 00:20:01.920 --> 00:20:03.359 I can't remember what position they finished. 00:20:03.440 --> 00:20:13.680 So Shaktar would win any tiebreaker if they're on exactly the same uh amount of points, and they're three points behind with two for a win and one for a draw. 00:20:13.839 --> 00:20:20.240 So if Crystal Palace put um Shaktar out, then they won't catch Rangers. 00:20:20.480 --> 00:20:28.079 Shaktar could reach the final through two draws, so they could draw both legs and go through on penalties, that would only be two points. 00:20:28.240 --> 00:20:42.319 There's then a 0.5 bonus for reaching the final, so at that stage they would still be 0.5 points behind Rangers, and therefore they would have to at least draw the Conference League final after 120 minutes. 00:20:42.400 --> 00:20:44.000 That's when the coefficient is taken. 00:20:44.079 --> 00:20:45.839 It doesn't matter the result of penalties. 00:20:46.000 --> 00:20:57.119 So yeah, they need three points across the remaining potentially three games, and if they reach the final, it's likely that they've done it by winning one leg and at least drawing the other. 00:20:57.200 --> 00:21:00.640 So they would probably have done it by the time they reach the final. 00:21:00.799 --> 00:21:09.759 But of course, there is a chance that they they get to the final and only earn two and a half points, and at that stage they would then need to not lose the final to overtake Rangers. 00:21:09.839 --> 00:21:14.000 So it's all ifs and buts, but this has been since the start of the season, this has been a possibility. 00:21:14.160 --> 00:21:18.000 So tracking it for like 15 clubs, now we're just down to the last ones. 00:21:18.079 --> 00:21:23.039 Well, Olympiakos winning Greece, and well Shaktar beat Crystal Palace essentially. 00:21:24.000 --> 00:21:32.160 Do you think there's going to be a a case maybe where we see a spike in sales of AK Athens and Crystal Palace shirts in the kind of governary of Scotland? 00:21:33.039 --> 00:21:36.319 Maybe not shirts, but I imagine folk will definitely be watching. 00:21:36.480 --> 00:21:48.480 And uh it's interesting, Olympiakos are only kind of falling behind because they just lost to I think it was the AK Athens who signed the left back from Hearts last summer, so that was quite an interesting connection. 00:21:48.720 --> 00:21:48.880 Yeah. 00:21:49.039 --> 00:21:54.880 Obviously, one of the teams is it Panathon Icos maybe signed Syrial Dessers from Rangers, so he's over there as well. 00:21:54.960 --> 00:21:59.519 So there's a lot of sort of interesting stories in there, but as it stands, from a hopeful. 00:22:00.160 --> 00:22:05.839 Point of view for Rangers, uh Olympiaquis are not in pole position in that country, so that that's good news for them.