TRANSCRIPT 🔗
00:00:10
Speaker 1: Here comes the hook. Down there! 20 strikeouts! He ties the Major League record! Breeze hits it in the air to center. We will see you tomorrow night.
00:00:29
Speaker 2: The impossible has happened. Goal!
00:00:33
Speaker 1: Big fly, O'Tyson! Towards the corner! It's back!
00:00:36
Speaker 2: It's gone!
00:00:37
Speaker 1: Welcome to Slam diego!
00:00:39
Speaker 2: Welcome to the Just Baseball Show. It is Tuesday, November 3rd. You got Ryan Finkelstein, Jack McMullen, and I am Peter Appel. And today, the award finalists got announced. Rookie of the Year, MVP, Cy Young, Manager of the Year, Reliever of the Year. Jack, Fink, and I are going to predict the final winners. Also, eight players got the qualifying offer. We're going to talk about those eight and whether or not they're going to take it. And then we're going to end with the top five free agent relief pitchers going through best fits and contract predictions. Loaded show, and it's all brought to you by BetMGM. Folks, all major sports are in full swing except our beloved baseball. So use your BetMGM AnySport Parlay Boost Token to increase the odds on an eligible parlay. and take your wager to the next level. Here's how it works. You just opt into the promotion on BetMGM, you claim your Parlay Boost token, and then you apply it to the eligible Parlay wager across supported sports. So if your boosted Parlay wins, you'll receive an enhanced payout. And if this is your first bet over on BetMGM, remember to use promo code JUSTBASEBALL because if your first pick loses, you'll get it all back in bonus bets up to $ 1, 500. Gentlemen, I say we get straight after it and talk about the eight players that received the qualifying offer. And in order, you got Randy Rosarino, Jake Bowers, Brandon Lau, Adrian Morohone, Seah Suzuki, Trevor Rogers, David Bednar, Ryan Jeffers. And the deadline to sign is on November 7th. Jack, real quick for anybody who might not, you know, understand the qualifying offer process or, what is the process? Like, let's say they don't sign it. What do the teams get? Let's say they do take it. What does the player get? Just a quick overview on the qualifying offer process. Yeah.
00:02:41
Speaker 1: So the qualifying offer is effectively a proposed one-year extension to an impending free agent for the first time. So you cannot receive the qualifying offer more than once in your career. So say you're playing out a free agent contract and somebody were to hit the open market for a second time after they hit it for the first time, you cannot extend that player a qualifying offer. So I'm going to use Zach Gallin as a recent example. Gallin was a conversation, do you extend, do you not extend the qualifying offer last year, right? They did extend the qualifying offer to him last year and he declined and then he ended up signing something close. They cannot extend the qualifying offer to him again because Zach Gallin in his career has already received the qualifying offer once. But the way you get to this number, the current offseason right now, the current qualifying offer is 23.2, 23.1, something like that. A little over $ 23 million on one year. The way you get there is taking literally the average salary of the top 125 players in Major League Baseball. So you're taking top of the food chain, you're meaning it out, and you're saying this is the one-year deal that you can push forward. So it's designed to find the tweener and incentivize them staying with their current team and also incentivize that current team offering the qualifying offer to them. Because if the player turns down the qualifying offer, you are reimbursed with a pick if they sign elsewhere. And there is a penalty for signing guys that were extended the qualifying offer for their previous team. So really it is like the closest thing to restricted free agency that we have in major league baseball. You see the comp all the time, like restricted free agents and offer sheets in the NBA. And then you've got restricted free agency, I think in football, I don't know exactly how that works, but it is the closest thing to restricted free agency. So for previous precedent, the guys that accepted the qualifying offer last year, I think there were four, Right. Imanaga, Gleyber Torres, Trent Grisham and then Brandon Woodruff. Milwaukee was effectively a sign of good faith for them to give Woodruff the QO last year. But Grisham was a guy coming off of a career year. And it's like, am I actually going to make a lot?
00:05:00
Speaker 2: I don't know.
00:05:00
Speaker 1: I'll say yes. And we see how that turned out. Gleyber Torres was a guy that has been really good, was very good before that and was extended the QO. by Detroit. And then the other guy, Imanagi, he was coming off of a bad year. It's like, okay, he was positioned to make 60 mil, but now not so much. It was effectively a one-year prove-it deal for him, and it worked out pretty well.
00:05:23
Speaker 2: And Fink, you and Aram did a show about who will receive the qualifying offer, and you went through a bunch of guys who you think will, a bunch of guys who you think won't. Of these eight, are there any surprises? Maybe the eight that got the qualifying offer, or you know, a bunch of other players that didn't. I know Yankee fans, Jack already mentioned the Trent Grisham thing. They were very upset when Trent Grisham was offered the qualifying offer and then he accepted it. This time around, they give it to David Bednar, but they don't give it to Jazz Chisholm. Is Chisholm the biggest surprise for you or is he not that much of a surprise and you have others that you're thinking about?
00:06:00
Speaker 3: He's not really that much of a surprise because the Yankees kind of tipped their hand on that. So we pretty much knew that Bednar was going to get it and Jazz wasn't. The one that I would say jumps out based on the show we recorded last week, I completely snubbed Ryan Jeffers from the
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conversation. And that was the one that I would, I don't know if it surprised me too much yesterday, just because I realized that, that we snubbed him.
00:06:24
Speaker 4: And I talked about that on yesterday's show.
00:06:26
Speaker 2: Yeah.
00:06:26
Speaker 4: It made sense based on him being.
00:06:28
Speaker 3: The top catcher on the market that he could get this thing. But the ones that I think were more on the bubble was Jeffers and Brandon Lau and Jake Bowers, just because of them all being on small market teams. And I honestly think those are the guys that could take it. I don't think that Maura Hone's going to take it. I don't think Bednar's going to take it. I think Trevor Rodgers is going to take it. Those guys should all do fine, even with the QO attached. And obviously, Rando Rosarena and Seiya Suzuki, we talked about yesterday. They're the top two bats in the market. They're not going to take it. So I think those are the three guys that are on the bubble right now.
00:07:01
Speaker 2: Jack, I'm of the mindset that none of these eight players take it. Do you agree with that or do you agree with Fink where those three that he mentioned, you know, maybe it's more of a 50-50 shot. I almost feel like a lot of them are below 20% if zero.
00:07:16
Speaker 1: I disagree with both of you to a certain extent. I think I love that.
00:07:20
Speaker 2: Yeah, right. I think I lean.
00:07:22
Speaker 1: More towards Fink. I think Jeffers is the only one that accepts the QO. I look at this list and I see... whole bunch of guys that are positioned for payouts. And like the math problem that the player is doing is a hell of a lot more simple than any team math problem with the QO. It's do I think I'm going to make more in free agency than this? And I think the answer for everybody is yes, except Jeffers who could hit the open market and sign two for 30. If I have confidence in myself as a player, why wouldn't I sign one for 23 and then get myself a nice multi-year bag later? It also seems like Jeffers really enjoys playing in Minnesota, which is a huge aspect of this. So I don't know. I think Jeffers makes a lot of sense to accept the QO, but everybody else, I'm looking at what they could get. And it's funny to see relievers on this list because you don't expect relievers to be on this list, but Bednar is going to earn a hell of a lot more than one for 23. Morajon could get paid like a starting pitcher because he might be a starting pitcher next year. I think the only guy that makes sense is Jeffers.
00:08:32
Speaker 2: So based on what you just said, I 1 million percent agree with you if the market is only two for 30. And Fink even broke it down yesterday where he was talking about, you know, JT Romuto got three for 45, you know, with Mitch Garver, you know, maybe a year or two ago, what did he get Fink, like two for 28?
00:08:49
Speaker 4: Yeah, it was two for 24.
00:08:51
Speaker 3: And I mean, like the high end would be looking at, you know, Wilson Contreras, which was like five for 87 and a half. Where I projected it for Jeffers was two for 36, which is 18 million per. I think if that's out there for him, I'd imagine he will decline this. I think the big thing that's interesting, we were talking about this on an editorial call earlier today.
00:09:14
Speaker 4: The guy that I was going back and forth.
00:09:16
Speaker 3: With Joey, who covers the Brewers for us as well, we were talking about Bowers. And I think the interesting thing right now is because of the nature of this offseason, We got a month where this free agent window is going to take place, and these guys have 10 days right now. So I do wonder if that can play in the favor of a Jeffers or a Bowers in a way that it didn't in the past, where if these teams are looking at the landscape and they decide we really need a catcher and we do not want Ryan Jeffers to take this QO, he might get a better deal on the table early. I think the same thing could happen with Bowers in a way that it might not in.
00:09:54
Speaker 4: A normal offseason.
00:09:56
Speaker 2: I agree with that. I think that his bat also you know is going to play up in this market because again we talked about the top 10 free agent hitters and it's a relatively weak market so you know if you're bringing in a guy like ryan jeffers at the bare minimum he's going to provide an offensive surge to your lineup. He has been one of the better offensive catchers in major league baseball. Now I know that the defense hasn't been all that great, but he's still in, you know, his low thirties from an age perspective. And I just think that potentially a three-year offer could be on the table for him, even at three years, 40 million. And with Jeffers, I feel like there's more of a risk by taking that qualifying offer than Because if you just go one year, you're going to enter the free agency market a year older. Your defense is likely going to decline even more, resulting in a DH role. If I'm him, I'm going for the years. Like if I was his agent, I think this is the right market to take advantage so I could see a three-year deal on the table for him. That's why I still don't think he's going to end up taking the qualifying offer.
00:11:02
Speaker 1: So real quick, let me draw a comp to a guy that said yes to the QO last year. And I think that he's in a similar situation to Glaber Torres in Detroit. And I think trying to remember how we felt last offseason, I think everybody was really surprised that Torres took it. I think he was the one. out of those four that was like, whoa, Torres said yes to the QO because Grisham, not really surprising. He was just kind of a dud and he was, you know, in attachment in a big trade. And then all of a sudden he becomes a 30 Homer guy. It's like, oh yeah, of course you fell ass backwards into a one-year $ 22 million deal. That's awesome. Shota was coming off a bad year. It made sense for him to say yes. And then Woodruff was, you know, the
injury element there too. There was so much unknown and he's a brewer through and through, but with Torres, he's, it seemed like a matter of hitting the market or saying yes and trying again and bolstering your stock. And Jeff versus had a really good previous four years. He's also averaging 107 games played over the past four years. So we haven't seen this guy play more than 110 games on a consistent basis. Yes. Does he, he has a seven 90 OPS over that last bit, but Gleyber Torres also has like a seven 60 OPS over his previous four. And he was playing 150 games a year. And he was hitting 15 to 25 homers in those given years. Like, I don't think the production is there to warrant a three-year contract for Jeffers. I think it's a very similar thought to Gleyber Torres from last year.
00:12:38
Speaker 2: So another good point by you. I think the comp to Gleyber to Jeffers, especially when I was looking at war, like I just looked both of them up. They're actually very comparable players when you look at their last four years, even from a defensive perspective, right? Because Gleyber's not giving you much So defensively, neither is Jeffers. But then I think, all right, so Glaber took the qualifying offer last year and then he put up one of his lesser seasons. Is that something that Jeffers is looking at being like, oh, crap, if I don't have a great year, my market is going to be even worse. I'm not going to be able to get the qualifying offer anyway. And because this market is starved for catchers, I'm going to hold out to see if I can even get the two for 36 or potentially the three for 39. Maybe it's less AAV, but I'm locking in guaranteed years.
00:13:28
Speaker 1: And to tie it back to your point, I think we have no idea what this market looks like. And if there's a mad dash to pay a catcher, cool. But I don't know if there's a mad dash to pay a catcher because these haven't worked out well at all. Like it, It just seems like the way that modern baseball is trending, you'd rather have a young catcher within the first six years of their career. Like it's almost like running backs at this point right now. It's like when in doubt, just side with the young catcher because JT Real Muto has been awesome, hasn't he?
00:13:58
Speaker 2: Yeah, but I, so here's another rebuttal. Last rebuttal that we have to move on to the awards because I didn't think we'd spend 10 minutes arguing whether Rye Jeffers would accept the qualifying offer, but that's what you get here on the Just Baseball Show. That's why this is the greatest podcast alive. Hold on, hold on.
00:14:13
Speaker 1: Think this is hand up, folks.
00:14:15
Speaker 2: No, no, no.
00:14:15
Speaker 4: I was just saying, no, no. Make your point on Jeffers.
00:14:19
Speaker 3: There's a guy that I actually am leaning more like 70% he takes the QO that we haven't really gotten into too much. So finish your point on Jeffers and then we'll close on another guy real quick.
00:14:28
Speaker 2: I'm going to say
one sentence. Ryan Jeffers is not a fossil. He's 29 years old. I've been over-exaggerated when I said 31 or 32 years old. He's 29. Let's not pretend he's going to an old folks home soon. Fink, you're up.
00:14:42
Speaker 3: Okay, so the three guys I mentioned, Jeffers, Lau, and Bowers. With Brandon Lau, to me, it was just a matter of will the Pirates actually give it to him?
00:14:51
Speaker 4: I didn't think he was going to take it. I just didn't know if they.
00:14:53
Speaker 3: Would actually extend it to him. I think he turns it down and gets his years right now. I'm pretty sure Jake Bowers takes the QL because there is not that much of a track record of guys getting paid off of one breakout season at 30 or 31 years old. And if he's going to go out in the market and he's just going to get a big one-year deal anyway, or a two for 30, I think he'd rather run it back in Milwaukee, take $ 23 million and and go into free agency next year after another big season in milwaukee so i think because of his affinity for that team it's a big enough contract i don't think he's going to do that much better where he'd rather just take the deal.
00:15:37
Speaker 4: And you know sit comfortably for the next three weeks.
00:15:41
Speaker 2: If you were both my agents i would fire you both of you i would fire both of you immediately.
00:15:45
Speaker 1: That team, that organization gave him his second lease on life in his baseball career. I think that's a humongous element there. So I believe like the leader in the clubhouse would be Milwaukee to retain Bowers. But to push back on your point, Fink, I don't know if it's two for 30. I think it's two for 40 with what he just did. And it's not just the homers. It's not just, you know, like the 26 Jackson 86 driven in. He had 266 with a 390 on base. He walked 94 times. There's a lot in that profile in terms of zone discipline, in terms of batted ball, that makes you think, oh, this might be a $ 20 million a year first baseman that is hitting on the bulk side of the platoon that I can pay for two years. So I think he gets two for 40, which is what drives him to say no to that QO. So I stay alive.
00:16:34
Speaker 2: As Peter's agent. I will just hire you back, but we demoted you. You lost your role. You're now assistant agent. I'm a junior.
00:16:42
Speaker 1: I'm a junior analyst. Yep. I'm a junior analyst.
00:16:46
Speaker 4: Last note, we can move on.
00:16:48
Speaker 3: I think you're right in the sense that if he turns it down, he's, he's going to be getting paid. And I think it's what I laid out before. I think there would have to be a team in this 10 day window where he has to make this decision that really pursues him hard and makes it clear that they're willing to give him, And it might even turn into a three-year deal because that's how bad they want him to not take this offer. I just think right now he's probably feeling more of a pull to take that and just stay where he's at, knowing that he's probably not
going to get more than just that one-year deal to stay in Milwaukee.
00:17:20
Speaker 4: So it's kind of take this QO and stay or go elsewhere.
00:17:25
Speaker 1: And I don't know.
00:17:25
Speaker 3: I think he might just want to stay, but we can definitely move on to the awards.
00:17:29
Speaker 2: Well, when Ryan Jeffers and Jake Bowers are MVP finalists next year at this time, you know, you guys are going to be very sorry. But now let's talk about the 2026 award finalists. And we're going to start with American League MVP. And you got Junior Caminero. You got Bobby Wood Jr. And you got your Don Alvarez. Gentlemen, I got a ticket plus 575 on BetMGM.com. For Bobby Wood Jr. to win the MVP, Jack, does that bet have any life? Or is Yordan going to win it unanimously?
00:18:05
Speaker 1: No, but I'm happy that you got to see his name on the list. I think Yordan should... Hang the banner.
00:18:11
Speaker 2: Hang the banner of my bet.
00:18:12
Speaker 4: Finalist.
00:18:13
Speaker 2: Got it.
00:18:14
Speaker 1: If anyone is going to take votes away from Yordan, I think it's Jr., Based on what Tampa did, best team in baseball, back-to-back 40 homer seasons, best team in the American League, I should say, not the Milwaukee Brewers. Jordan Alvarez should win this darn near unanimously. I would assume it's like 25 or 26 of 30 first-place votes. Not only was it 315 with a 430 OBP, but it was 42 jacks and 106 driven in and 109 walks. It was a flawless year offensively from him.
00:18:45
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's going to be Jordan, right? Jack makes a good point about Junior. Maybe he can steal a couple of votes, but it's all Jordan.
00:18:53
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think we can move on to the next one, which is also a slam dunk, no doubt about it. Who's winning the NL MVP?
00:18:59
Speaker 2: NL MVP is a slam dunk. The three finalists are Bryce Terang, Shohei Otani, and Picro Armstrong. I think Picro Armstrong should win this award unanimously. A 10.6 F4 is ridiculous. 45 homers, 41 steals. Best defense should win the platinum glove in the National League. I think he should win the MLB platinum glove if that existed for the best defender in all of Major League Baseball this season. So that's set in stone. PCA is going to win it. My one problem with this is Bryce Terang should not be a finalist. Ellie De La Cruz should be a finalist. That's my take. And I look at Ellie's improvements on defense to give him a 6.4 F war compared to Bryce Terang at 5.9. I look at the 30 homers. I look at the 30 steals. I look at the one 39 WRC plus compared to Bryce terrain at one 27. And again, neither of them are going to win it. But if I were to make my three finalists, Ellie Dela Cruz would be my third Jack. You kind of gave me a whoa face, but after I broke it down like that, does it make a little bit more sense? Are you still on the terrain train numerically?
00:20:08
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:20:09
Speaker 1: It makes sense. But what does the V in MVP stand for?
00:20:13
Speaker 2: Valuable.
00:20:15
Speaker 1: So if I told you we had the best player on a first place team and a 103 win team versus the best player on a last place team and a 75 win team, what would you say?
00:20:24
Speaker 2: But that's you looking just to disagree with me.
00:20:28
Speaker 1: No, it's the definition of MVP.
00:20:30
Speaker 2: So we just give it to the better team. So we just give it to the guy on the better team. Is it Elie De La Cruz's fault that the Reds were worse than the Brewers? Do you actually have a question for both of you? Do the Brewers win the World Series without Bryce trying this year?
00:20:44
Speaker 1: Probably not. I think Terang is a huge piece of that team.
00:20:48
Speaker 2: He's amazing. He's amazing. He just put up a 5.9 F4 season. He was incredible. And I'll ask it again. Do the Brewers win the World Series without Bryce Terang?
00:20:57
Speaker 1: I don't think so.
00:20:59
Speaker 2: I don't know about that. And I think Fink is also not sure about that.
00:21:02
Speaker 3: I mean, I think they might have, but it would not have been anywhere near as easy. And they certainly wouldn't have won 103 games, what we're talking about. They would have won, whatever, 95 games.
00:21:11
Speaker 4: I don't know, but.
00:21:15
Speaker 3: Regardless, I just applaud Peter for caring about who's finished as third in the NL MVP. I thought that this would be like a 30-second segment.
00:21:21
Speaker 4: I thought we'd just steamroll through it. I'm surprised we're not on the page of the year by now.
00:21:26
Speaker 1: And listen, whoever the third finalist in the NL was going to be is like the walk-on getting on the floor in the national championship game where it's like, hey, I played. Look at the box score.
00:21:34
Speaker 4: This is me.
00:21:35
Speaker 3: I'll tell you, I couldn't have even had any part of that debate because this MVP race was over like two months before the season was over.
00:21:42
Speaker 4: So I haven't paid attention at all at who was third. Yeah.
00:21:46
Speaker 1: It's just something that grinds my gears. And I love this point from Peyton. B-War, baseball reference war, uses defensive run saves for infielders, which is more logical than OAA. And Terang, a 7.3 B-War versus 5.6 for Ellie. So that's a big trump card there. The other one is you just like kicked off the dust of my biggest gripe with MVP debates across sports, not just in baseball, across sports. MVP is most valuable player. The Heisman Trophy goes to the most outstanding player in college football. There's a difference between outstanding and valuable. And I think team success has to matter in MVP discussions. Robert Griffin III can win the Heisman on Baylor, who went to the Alamo Bowl because he was the most outstanding player in the country. If we were having an MVP conversation in college football, it goes to a guy whose team is going to the playoffs. That's where I think like there's a huge disconnect there. So to, to bury
the hatchet, the 103 win teams, best player should be third over the 75 win teams, best player.
00:22:56
Speaker 2: I 1000% agree with you. And that's why you just proved my point that Ellie de la Cruz should win the MVP because who was more valuable to their team, Ellie de la Cruz to the reds or Bryce terrain to the Brewers. If the Reds didn't have Eli De La Cruz, we'd be having conversations about them in the Rockies conversations. If the Brewers didn't have Bryce Terang, what do they win, 98 games and win the World Series in seven?
00:23:21
Speaker 1: We're talking it, sir. Neither of us are going to win here, so just go to the Cy Young.
00:23:27
Speaker 2: I need to hear a whoosh. Let's have one quick break podcast, Pia, then we'll get right back to the awards. Whoosh us. That was fun. Let's go to the American League Cy Young. Man, I love the offseason. So the three finalists, Cam Schlittler, Dylan Cease, and Parker Messick. Another one of my bets goes down in flames. Dylan Cease, 12-1 to win the American League Cy Young. I wrote an article about it back in May, and I said Dylan Cease is going to beat out Tarek Skubal to win the American League Cy Young. Tarek Skubal traded to the Dodgers, and it wasn't him. It was Cam Schlittler who also should win this one going away. Jack, do you have a problem with Parker Messick as third in Cy Young? Do you want to yell at me now? The floor is yours.
00:24:21
Speaker 1: No, because this goes to the most outstanding pitcher, so I'm in. No, it's Schlittler. Good three. I'm good to move.
00:24:29
Speaker 2: Yeah, Cam Schlittler was just so uber-dominant this year. Let's go over to the National League Cy Young. Three finalists. Christopher Sanchez. Chris Sale and Jacob Mizorowski. Now, I guess I could hear somewhat of an argument for Sanchez or Sale, but this is another quick one. Think you're giving me the head nod where it's like, it's so obviously Jacob Mizorowski. Peter's just trying to start an argument for the fun of it.
00:24:56
Speaker 4: I think so.
00:24:57
Speaker 3: I think this is Miz's award at this point, but I'm not sure what the betting line has said for that, but I kind of assume that it's going to be Miz.
00:25:05
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's like minus a trillion. Jack, why should Chris Sale get it over Jacob Mizorowski?
00:25:09
Speaker 1: Because he's a freaking dog and sale is turning back the clock and he is aged like a fine wine. I, I don't know. I love sale and I love Sanchez, but this is the Mizorowski invitational. Um, I think you put sale in Sanchez in the American league and we have a hell of a discussion sale versus Schlittler. Who you got?
00:25:31
Speaker 2: No, we have no discussion. Schlittler would beat the crap out of them. Let's go to the national league rookie of the year. The three finalists, Sal Stewart, Carson Benj, and Nolan McClain. Right now, Fink.
00:25:43
Speaker 4: McClain's not a– I think it's J.J.
00:25:45
Speaker 2: Weatherholt. My bad. Did I write down McClain?
00:25:48
Speaker 1: Yeah, no McClain.
00:25:50
Speaker 4: Okay, I thought it was Weatherholt.
00:25:52
Speaker 1: It's Weather– yeah, it's Weatherholt, Benj, Sal.
00:25:54
Speaker 4: It should have been McClain. I mean, I could have said that.
00:25:57
Speaker 2: I wrote down McClain. That's my fault. So, Weatherholt, Benj, and Sal Stewart. Fink, does your boy Benj have a shot or no?
00:26:07
Speaker 3: I think he has a shot, but I think Stewart probably gets there at the end of the day. The counting stats were so overwhelming for Stewart. But if you look at that final month, if Sal Stewart was just halfway normal in that last month, there wouldn't be a conversation. But he really struggled down the stretch, and Carson Bench did everything he could. I could give you guys 45 minutes on this. There's no need to. I think Bench deserves that. I think Stewart probably wins it.
00:26:33
Speaker 2: I think Ben should win it, but I agree with you. I can't get over the fact that Sal Stewart, Jack, and Wade Meckler have the same F4. I can't get over it.
00:26:42
Speaker 1: Yeah, but Sal has a couple things that Wade Meckler doesn't have, and that's 35 Jacks and 111 driven in. I think the counting numbers reign supreme in this debate.
00:26:54
Speaker 2: I know, but then you look at bench and you look at the, you know, above average defense with 20 homers and 22 steals. I'm sorry. You know, Fink's met stink and you don't have, they don't have as many runners on base for him to hit in as Sal Stewart gets on the reds. And as I'm saying that it's not as if the reds had that great of an offensive season, pretty impressive that Sal Stewart was able to drive in over a hundred. So, You know, I understand that. But Fink, I'm on your side. I would be voting for Carson Bench.
00:27:20
Speaker 3: The quick take would be Carson Bench had a better WRC plus than Sal Stewart. So it's like as much as you say the home runs, the RBIs. Also, if you look at from like Carson Bench had a brutal April. If you look from May on, he was actually pretty close to Sal Stewart in home runs too. So Carson Bench, I think, was clearly the best rookie from May 1st at the end of the season. but he kind of lost it in April if he doesn't end up taking it home.
00:27:47
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with you. Let's move on to American League Rookie of the Year. This one is such a stacked class. Your finalists are Kevin McGonigal, Parker Messick, and Peyton Tolley. It's got to go to McGonigal, but, you know, I feel like every single guest that we have on this show, whether it be media, whether it be players, they all are aligned. We need an American League and National League team. rookie pitcher of the year award and that would definitely go to parker messick it's a shame that he's not going to win it but at the same time kevin mcgonigal had kevin mcgonigal had to have had that good of a season to beat out what parker messick did in 2026 and he did just that establishing himself as one of the better
players in baseball elite play discipline good defense at a bunch of different positions back to ball skills off the charts such a good player Does anyone want to argue for Messick?
00:28:42
Speaker 1: No. I think McGonigal is close to entering superstardom. Fink, you go and argue for Messick.
00:28:48
Speaker 3: It's not that I would argue for Messick, but what I will say is I think we should definitely note on this show that because Parker Messick finished top three in the Cy Young, he did get his team a PPI pick. Because based on the prospect promotion incentive, if you win rookie of the year, your team.
00:29:04
Speaker 4: Gets a pick.
00:29:05
Speaker 3: Obviously, if you break camp or if you're on the roster within the first couple weeks, But also if you finish top three in Cy Young or MVP across your first three seasons, your team gets a pick and Parker Messick as a rookie finished top three. So they automatically get a pick regardless of if he wins the rookie of the year or not.
00:29:22
Speaker 1: Is it, is it win rookie of the year? Is it top two? I thought it was top two in rookie of the year and then top three in MVP.
00:29:29
Speaker 3: I'm, I'm like 99% sure you have to win the rookie of the year or get top three in either of those awards. And, If there was a case for Messick, the case would be he was one of the top three pitchers in his league. McGonigal wasn't, but again, I think McGonigal by war and everything else is going to win that award.
00:29:45
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:29:46
Speaker 2: All right. Let's move over to the American league reliever of the year award. You got Brian Baker, Cade Smith and Louie Varland, uh, And I guess we could just, I mean, Brian Baker was phenomenal this year. 144 ERA, 41 saves. But I do think Louis Varland was more valuable. He had a lower ERA at 127 in 78 innings. Pitched multiple innings in some spurts. He also had 35 saves. Like, you look at every number and you're like, well, Louis Varland was better than Brian Baker. He struck out more guys. He walked less. He had better underlying performance. you know, peripherals. He had the better ERA. He threw more innings, but Brian Baker had six more saves. So automatically he's the reliever of the year. I assume that's how they're going to vote. But me personally, me personally, I'm going with, um, Louis Varland.
00:30:37
Speaker 1: That's why I like to think the baseball writers are tapped in on this one and they go Varland. I think it should be personally, I think it should be Varland one, Cade Smith, two Baker three.
00:30:48
Speaker 2: What do you think personally?
00:30:49
Speaker 3: I think I think I'm with Jack on that. I think the funny part about it is if I had to pick one of those.
00:30:54
Speaker 4: Three for next season, I'm taking Kate Smith all day.
00:30:56
Speaker 3: But I think the award probably goes either to Baker.
00:30:59
Speaker 4: Or to Varlin.
00:31:00
Speaker 2: I think I'm taking Varlin next year. I think he's so disgusting.
I love Kate Smith, though.
00:31:04
Speaker 1: I think Kate Smith is the second best reliever in baseball going into next year. I'm going to have him at two on our best players in 27.
00:31:12
Speaker 2: It's funny. I don't even hate that take because I'd probably rank. kate smith like four and i have louis varla three i think these are some of the best relievers in all of baseball but moving over to the national league reliever of the year your three finalists are yohan duran trevor mcgill and mason miller before we pick a winner here did you guys hear that the brewers are listening on trades for trevor mcgill this offseason.
00:31:36
Speaker 3: Well and that's like one of the things you could have reported like three months ago I'm hearing in June that after the season when McGill's a rental, the Brewers are going to listen on trades.
00:31:46
Speaker 4: And they're also going to listen on Contreras. And then next year, they'll listen on whoever's going to be a rental next year.
00:31:51
Speaker 2: They'll probably listen on Bryce Terang. They know he's not that valuable.
00:31:55
Speaker 4: They're listening.
00:31:56
Speaker 1: I'm going to ignore what Peter just said. That was one of the best surprised faces that I've ever seen from Fink, where he's like, no way.
00:32:03
Speaker 2: That was so good.
00:32:04
Speaker 1: The wide eyes have just never seen Fink emote like that, facially.
00:32:08
Speaker 4: It had to be fake for me to give that to you.
00:32:12
Speaker 2: All right. So who's your guys' pick? I think it's got to be Mason Miller, correct? Yeah, of course. Yeah. All right. Let's move on. American League Manager of the Year. You got the Red Sox, Chad Tracy. You got the Rays, Kevin Cash. And you have the White Sox, Will Venable. I look at preseason expectations. And I know the White Sox didn't really have preseason expectations at all. But we have to remember, the Rays were projected. But I bet MGM, when you're looking at win totals, they finish last in the American League East. Their win total was in the mid-70s. They won 98 games, discounting the playoffs entirely, which is what they did during the regular season. I still think what Kevin Cash did for the Rays is a little bit more impressive than what Will Venable did for the White Sox. And then you got Chad Tracy, who completely turned around the Red Sox. But I have to go with the full season, guys, especially with what Kevin Cash just did. Kevin Cash would be my pick. Jack?
00:33:11
Speaker 1: Please tell me we have to look at we have to look at preseason expectations right i mean the rays were projected a mid-70s win total you know we have to look at opening day when chad tracy is rolling out the lineup card at polar park in worcester mass that's a crazy element here where it was the triple a manager that comes up and he orchestrates the team of the summer turnaround uh i love chad tracy but We're also talking about a guy that has authored the best two-year turnaround in the history of baseball. And I lean Venable here because, mind you, in 2024, the Chicago White Sox lost 121 games. And they just made the postseason in year two of that rebuild. So give me Venable for the turnaround that quickly.
00:33:59
Speaker 2: Fink, deciding vote.
00:34:01
Speaker 1: You know.
00:34:02
Speaker 3: it's tough when you first set the stage with the preseason expectations, it actually convinced me about Venable. But then when you laid out your case on cash, I can, I can see where you're coming from too. I almost feel like if the White Sox finished it off and won the division, it would be Venable. But since they kind of struggled to that very end, and this is probably, you know, technically a regular season, maybe you lean towards the guy that had the best team in the American league.
00:34:28
Speaker 2: I also think about, you know, who had the higher payroll, you know, I also think who had the tougher schedule, which is the Tampa Bay Rays and the American League East, all cultivating for my imaginary vote for Kevin Cash to win AL Manager of the Year. National League Manager of the Year. The three finalists, Don Mattingly, who was hired towards the beginning of the season for the Phillies. You got Pat Murphy again, and you have Walt Weiss of the Atlanta Braves. I'd give it to Pat Murphy again. I don't care. I don't care. Jack, do you care?
00:35:05
Speaker 1: No, I don't care. Tell you what, last night unlocked a level of Bears fandom in me that I have only felt a couple of times in my life.
00:35:16
Speaker 2: I like that.
00:35:18
Speaker 1: I turn on Coward today and I see him and Nick Wright talking about how the Bears are the best team in the NFL. And I'm like, oh my gosh, this is awesome. And I've got two guys to thank for that. Number one, In my entire life, growing up in Chicago, I had to watch Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton, and Cutler was the best thing, and Trubisky couldn't throw left, and there are so many things. Caleb Williams is a top three to five quarterback in the NFL, but Ben Johnson is a mastermind, and Ben Johnson is a coach that changes the fabric of an NFL football game. Andy Reid is that guy. And there's only one guy that exists like that in Major League Baseball, and it's Pat effing Murphy of the Milwaukee Brewers. So, Pat Murphy, your three-peat National League Manager of the Year, without a doubt.
00:36:11
Speaker 2: Beautifully said. Fink, where do you disagree?
00:36:14
Speaker 4: No, I'm right there.
00:36:15
Speaker 3: I think next year, if we want to spread the wealth, we can spread the wealth in the Manager of the Year next year, but let him win three in a row, especially for the season that they just had. Obviously, the playoffs does not factor in, but 103 wins should be yeah, Pat Murphy should win it again.
00:36:31
Speaker 1: I do want to shout out Walt Weiss in this conversation real quick. I think he should be a consensus second, but I also think that so much of the Atlanta turnaround was player
dictated, whether it was health or just performance getting better. 25 was a year from hell for the Braves and 26 was what the Braves should be.
00:36:50
Speaker 2: But yeah, I'm with you. It is still one of the more talented rosters in all of major league baseball. And that's without Spencer Schwellenbach, um, for, I think the entire season I barely even pitched. I, I think I'm ready to move on to our top five for agent relievers. You guys ready for that? All right. We're going to start. Think I want to ask you about, right. Cause we're only doing the top five right now. So if we were to extend it to the entire top 10, who are some other relievers outside some of the best closers in baseball and that fans should be paying attention to.
00:37:30
Speaker 3: So shout out to our guy, Jay Staff, who wrote the article on the site, Top 10 Free Agent Relievers. And the guys that we're not going to get into the nitty gritty on today, you have four left-handers at the back end. So a lot of good lefties in this year's free agent class. Sean Newcomb, Stephen Okert, Jojo Romero, and Alex Vessia. And then the other guy that just missed is Emilio Pagan. And we'll probably talk a little bit about Pagan when we get to one of the closers in the middle of this list, as far as kind of the contract comps. But I will say, as I kind of dove into this prepping for today's show and have been looking at the free agent class, like I know that we don't really care about closers anymore necessarily, but there is a little bit of a correlation to if you have closed, you do get a little bit of bump. So like guys who have a little bit of safe, you know, saves under their belt, might get a couple million more than the guys who didn't.
00:38:20
Speaker 4: But we can get into that as we get into the top five.
00:38:24
Speaker 2: I would certainly want to add Alex Vessia. If I was a general manager, Jack, of those names that just listed, like who's one that you would want your team to go get?
00:38:35
Speaker 1: Vessia in a blink. Yeah, absolutely.
00:38:38
Speaker 2: Vessia.
00:38:39
Speaker 1: Jojo Romero also jumps out to me, no doubt about that. But Vessia for sure. And I actually want to throw you two teams that I think make sense for Three teams, actually, I want to throw you that make sense for any lefty reliever on the market. I think both teams in Chicago should be hunting a lefty bullpen arm. The Cubs and the White Sox should be in the market for someone like Vessia. I also think Toronto makes a lot of sense for a lefty arm because their leverage arms, right? The way they got through ballgames moving backwards was Varland in the ninth, Rodgers in the eighth. Spencer miles was a hell of an arm for them in the seventh or like kind of that Swiss army knife, but I look at flew Hardy and I'm like okay how sustainable is Mason flew Hardy I think I like him as lefty to in an elite bullpen, not lefty one. And I think that there are a whole bunch of lefty ones. sitting out there.
I think Jojo Romero can be a top lefty in a good bullpen. I think Vessia is a top lefty in a good bullpen. And we're going to talk about one of them, too, in the top five.
00:39:40
Speaker 2: Yeah, we got five relievers that we're going to talk about. But Podcast P, would you mind giving us our last whoosh? The top five free agent relievers for the 2027 offseason. Again, just like we did yesterday with the top 10 hitters, we're going to start with the player, give you a quick overview, going to toss it over to Fink for his contract prediction, and then I'll toss it over to Jack for some best fits. I'll fill in the cracks of other teams that I think would be interested in these relievers, and then we'll move on to the next guy and we start. with number five, Jason Adam, right-handed pitcher for the San Diego Padres. And again, just another quick reminder, guys, you can go read Jay Staff's full article on justbaseball.com, where he breaks down all of the different relievers that are available on the deadline. So remember, go check out the full article, again, on justbaseball.com. So Jason Adam, you know, another great season for him. Well, it was great production, but he only threw 34 innings because he missed nearly three months with a shoulder injury. injury uh but again the reason i said it was a great season is because he still pitched to a 262 era his slider was a weapon once again whiff rate over 37 but at the end of the day he is 34 there are injury concerns does he get a multi-year deal does he not think that's where i toss it over to you do you think jason adam gets more than a one-year deal.
00:41:13
Speaker 3: Here i don't think so and I think you can even argue that some of the guys that we just kind of briefly flew past, geez, are going to get a better deal than Jason Adam. Like I think Vessia probably does a little better than Adam on the market. But I think the reason why Jay hasn't this high on the list is because that tracker could look at his last five years. I mean, when he's been on the mound, he's actually been on the mound a lot besides this past season.
00:41:38
Speaker 4: He has been really good.
00:41:39
Speaker 3: If you look at, The contracts from last year, I think he falls in the same camp as a guy like Sir Nathan Dominguez, Emilio Pagan, Brad Keller, Luke Weaver, all those guys between 10 and 11 million. So I think he's right there in that bucket. So I don't think we'll see him do much better than that. I don't think it's a two-year deal, but probably like one for 10 and an arm that a lot of teams could.
00:42:04
Speaker 1: Use, obviously.
00:42:05
Speaker 2: The only reason I think he might get a multi-year deal is just because he's been so lethal his entire career. And yes, he is coming off, I guess, quote unquote, an injury plague season. But when he came back, he was still great. And I still feel good about him spinning these electric sweepers for at least the next two years. That's why I wouldn't be shocked to see
him get a two-year deal. But Fink, I understand where you're coming from. 34 years old, again, is coming off the injury. So Jack, Who are some of the teams you ID that you think, because you talked about teams who need a lefty reliever. What about a high-end right-handed reliever?
00:42:43
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think there are two old teams that jump out that could just lean into the old thing with a 35-year-old. And then there's a team that I fell in love with the fit. The two old teams are the Texas Rangers and the San Francisco Giants. I think the Rangers could always use them bullpen help. They're always a good bullpen without star power. And if Adam's going to sign a one-year deal, might as well add him in. And you're not asking Adam to be a closer. You're not asking the fifth best reliever available to be a closer because you've got lats. And you're not even asking him to be your full-time eighth inning guy because there are guys that are more than capable in that bullpen of throwing the eighth. So adding Adam to the stable of arms in Texas is fun for me. I also look at this giant lineup and I'm like, all right, the way they performed in the second half, you know, seven through nine in their lineup was just kind of a hodgepodge of like, you're a new name that I've never seen before, but they still have Devers and they still have Chapman and they still have all of these guys. There's a chance they hit a lot and they still have Logan Webb. There's a chance he's awesome. So why not grab a one-year deal guy? And if he throws well and you're bad, move him. If he throws well and you're good, he's throwing the eighth inning for you. And you kind of allow this soft landing for Randy Rodriguez. So those are the two old teams that made sense to me. But the one I fell in love with, Washington. They're good, except that bullpen. That bullpen sucks. You're telling me you can add a 35-year-old? I think they found a setup guy or borderline closer in Tolman. The story with Eric Tolman is amazing. And the stuff is really good, too. But after Tolman, it's like and friends trying to finish the game and it didn't go well. So give me Jason Adam in that bullpen.
00:44:34
Speaker 2: I like that one more that I want to throw at you. I think the Phillies are ending kind of this core where in a few years it's going to get really tough. So I would try and capitalize on a Jason Adam right now for a Phillies bullpen that certainly has some holes in it. So I would throw that team into the Jason Adam bullpen. ring as well. Let's go over to number four. And that is Brian Abreu, who we all know has been a big time Houston Astros reliever for a while now, but 2026 was a rough year for him. 373 ERA, which was the second highest of his career. But this was after an incredibly dominant season where he posted a 228 ERA, 105 strikeouts and 71 innings. So you look at 2026 and you're like, do I really want to sign him? Well, a lot of that was because he really struggled pre-all-star
break. 5-8-1 ERA, 1-7-1 ERA in the second half with a much better strikeout minus walk ratio. We know he has electric stuff. And another thing that leans towards his way is how durable he's been. At least 66 appearances every single year since 2023.
00:45:46
Speaker 1: Think....
00:45:50
Speaker 2: I know we struggled a little bit this year, but again, a lot of that was pre-All-Star break. Do you think some teams will forget that and give him the multi-year deal? Or do you think he's just going to get a bunch of one-year deals and teams are asking, hey, we need you to prove it. We need you to get back to the 2-8-2 career ERA that you've shown in the past, but we're not willing to go two years or more.
00:46:10
Speaker 3: You know, the more that I'm thinking about this right now, I think there's a lot of parallels between Brian Abreu and Devin Williams last year.
00:46:17
Speaker 4: And Devin Williams still got paid.
00:46:19
Speaker 3: And so if you're looking at the kind of tiers, once you get beyond that, you know, 10 to $ 11 million range, you get to a lot of guys last year, like Pete Fairbanks got 13, Ryan Helsing got two for 28. You start to get to 13 to $ 16 million when you get to those guys that have been in leverage roles for a long time, have the track record. That's where you start to look. There might be a three for.
00:46:41
Speaker 4: 45 on the table for Brian Abreu this off season. It wouldn't surprise me at all based on the track record that he's had.
00:46:47
Speaker 3: Because of the season he had, there could be a chance he has to settle for a Helsley type contract if there is less faith than it is a one plus one situation where he can reset his market.
00:46:58
Speaker 4: But I don't know. He came on so strong down the stretch. I do think that.
00:47:02
Speaker 3: To me, I would put Abreu more in the Devin Williams camp than the Ryan Helsley camp. Then again, Helsley was the opposite in the sense that he was great in the beginning and then he fell apart at the end. So that's where I kind of feel like A brave is more like Devin. And I think it's kind of like three for 45 or again, 13 to 18 is kind of the range, shorter years, higher AV. It could be like three for 39 too.
00:47:28
Speaker 2: If he gets years, Jack, who do you think would offer a multi-year deal to Brian?
00:47:33
Speaker 1: I don't know a couple of teams and I'll, I'll flesh that out in a moment, but there is one big thing jumps out to me that, that depletes his value. from where Devin Williams was last year. And I love that shout that he could be in the Devin Williams camp, but Williams, like everything looked good except for the ERA with the Yankees. So then he gets his three-year deal with a Bray. You, you can't say that because in 2025, he was sitting 97.2 with his fastball. And in 2026, he sat 95.7. So when a guy is down a tick and a half, I don't know if he gets three for 45, he might get a one-year deal. Um, and if he recaptures and he sits 96, 97 again,
then he could hit the open market and get paid because he's young. Um, a couple of teams jump out to me. I think in terms of the multi-year bucket, if the Phillies don't want to go the Jason Adam route, I think they could go the two-year route with a Brian Abreu. I think that makes a lot of sense, especially with Orion Kirkering throwing to the point where he was an iron pig at the end of the year. Um, The Cubs also make sense, but they're throwing a lot of eggs in the Brian Abreu basket and him being able to possibly close games. I think my favorite fit, if it's a high AAV one-year deal, apparently the Twins were in love with him at the deadline. And the Twins could use some bullpen help here. And I know Peter would get fired up about that. And we could hang the banner already. So I think in a one-year deal off Bucs, For Brian Abreu, I think I like the twins being aggressive there.
00:49:18
Speaker 2: I love the twins shout. I think that's a great one. I guess if I were to fill in the cracks, I think the Orioles could get involved here. It feels like a good fit for them because I look at their bullpen right now and there's certainly some holes. And I think the Orioles can say, kind of similar to the Cubs, I feel like they're both in the same bucket where it's like, We don't want to pay for a top-end reliever, even though Brian Abreu is a top-end reliever. But I'm talking about a guy who could be, if he regains that fastball velocity, one of the better closers in baseball. But when we sign him, he's not being paid as one of the better closers in baseball. And I feel like the Orioles and the Cubs sit in those buckets. But I agree with you on the Twins. I like the Cubs fit. I would just throw the Orioles, again, hat in the rink. All right, let's move over to number three, which is Rossell Iglesias, who's done a great job closing games for the Atlanta Braves for a while, and last year was more of the same, just consistency. 60 innings, 255 ERA, 34 saves, again, with 64 strikeouts and 60 innings. It was actually his first All-Star selection of his 12-year career last year. 130 saves over four full years. in Atlanta, which is the most of any reliever in that span. The only problem is he's 36 years old. But the thing is, he didn't show any signs of slowing down. So your mind says, I don't want to pay a 36-year-old reliever. But then you watch Rizal Iglesias, and he doesn't look like a 36-year-old reliever. So think, what do you think he gets on the open market?
00:50:53
Speaker 4: I got a great comp for Rizal Iglesias. Rizal Iglesias last year.
00:50:57
Speaker 1: I think it's like.
00:50:59
Speaker 3: Do the exact same thing. One for 16, go back to the Braves. To me, it feels like there's no reason for those two sides to not just look at each other and say.
00:51:07
Speaker 4: You want to do that again? Sure.
00:51:10
Speaker 3: And there could be a team, if there was a team that really wanted Iglesias to be their closer, this could be where he would
get a second year to pry him away from the Braves.
00:51:20
Speaker 4: But to me, that's an easy one. I feel like just go back, same deal.
00:51:24
Speaker 2: Yeah. Jack, I totally agree with you, I think.
00:51:27
Speaker 1: I tried to find a silver and a bronze. The Tigers just let Kenley Jansen go. I think they could just get a younger Kenley Jansen.
00:51:36
Speaker 2: They do like the 36 and up class. Yeah.
00:51:39
Speaker 1: Like that just seems, he seems like a good Tigers closer. So to Fink's point, if he wants to close games, I mean, hell, he's probably going to get a whole bunch of save opportunities in Atlanta if he goes back and they would make Suarez the setup guy again, because Rysel's earned that closer job. Like, so, Detroit. I gave the bronze a far away silver. I think the Yankees, like if I sell was cool being a setup guy, I think that would be a fun fit in New York, but he's a brave.
00:52:06
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with you. I think he's a brave as well. I'm going to number two, David Bednar, who was excellent as the Yankees closer last season, 69 innings, two, four, seven ERA with 35 saves easily Aaron Boone's most trusted reliever elite and limiting hard contact and getting chases. He was in the 99th percentile of chase rate, which swings outside of the zone should get a big payday here. Think I hope he returns back to the Yankees. And my guess is it's probably on a three year deal. That makes sense. Yeah.
00:52:43
Speaker 4: Three years for sure.
00:52:44
Speaker 3: I also, in my predictions, we'll have him going back to the Yankees as well. I think the interesting thing to know when it comes to the guys who get QOs as relievers, there's only been, prior to this offseason, 10 guys across the 14 years that we've had the QO that have gotten offered one as a reliever.
00:53:01
Speaker 4: They've all been closers.
00:53:02
Speaker 3: The guy that's number one on this list is the first ever set-up man to get a QO. But what we've seen is most of the time those guys decline the QO. Well, actually, they've all declined the QO. For most of them, they end up taking more years and then getting a lesser AAV With the QO being $ 23 million this year, it probably comes in a good amount below that, but I think he's going to get somewhere between $ 17.
00:53:27
Speaker 4: And $ 20 and probably a three-year deal.
00:53:29
Speaker 3: So the top end, maybe he gets three for $ 60. Lower end, maybe like the three for $ 51.
00:53:36
Speaker 4: But he's going to be in that range, and I do think he'll get three years.
00:53:40
Speaker 2: Jack, do you think the Yankees should be the frontrunner here? And if so, who is your bronze and silver?
00:53:46
Speaker 1: The yankees should absolutely be the front runner here and given that they didn't pay devin williams the three for 50 ish that the mets gave him i think they can give david bednar the three for 50 ish and rest their head on the pillow knowing that they probably paid the right guy in bednar so i
think he should be a yankee uh i also think that there is a hometown discount world here for bednar i know that was a very painful trade for the pirates to make when they moved bednar To New York and the Pirates, if they feel like they're close, a Bednar deal can effectively take them to the end of Skeens' control. And you've got a high level closer to pair with the youngest exciting rotation in Major League Baseball. So I think if the Pirates are going to pay someone, it's a Pittsburgh guy that specifically requests icy light when he makes an all-star team. and someone to anchor the back of that bullpen that was their Achilles heel at points last season.
00:54:49
Speaker 2: I'm totally with you. I actually had the Pirates at number two. Number three, I had the Houston Astros because if they let Brian Abreu go, they need to fill that spot. Also, Stephen O'Curt is one of the guys on our top 10 relievers list. So if he parts as well, that'll be a problem. So I'm looking at David Bednar as a possible option for Houston. Will they want to give him the bag? Not sure. I like the fit there, though, but I would agree with the both of you that I think Yankees and Pirates should be the frontrunners. And last but certainly not least, because Jay ranked him as the number one reliever in this class, and that is Adrian Morajone, dominant lefty for the Padres. 76 games last year, 86 innings, 283 ERA. 107 punch outs. His 2.8 F war ranked fourth among all relievers. 90th percentile or better in almost every stat gas category outside of just extension. And the Padres kept him at the trade deadline, despite, you know, those trade rumors, but he's a workhorse reliever. He can certainly close games. The only reason that he wasn't just because the Padres had Mason Miller and they had a Superbowl pen, so they didn't need him to, but he could absolutely step into a closer role. He could also be a bullpen weapon where he covers multiple innings. This guy is box office. He's phenomenal. He's throwing 100 miles an hour from the left side. Think, do you think he gets more than David Bednar?
00:56:15
Speaker 4: Yeah, I do, for sure.
00:56:17
Speaker 3: And Adrian Morajon, again, the first ever non-closer to get the QO. And if we have a QO system in the new CBA, I don't think he'll be the last. I think he is the new mold that we're going to see of these guys who are just electric at the end of games and have to be a closer to get that QO. But as far as more hone here, he's an interesting one because I think the floor should be Tanner Scott. I don't see any reason why he doesn't get the Tanner Scott deal, which was 18 million per.
00:56:42
Speaker 4: It was a four year deal. But honestly, he's a little younger than Tanner Scott.
00:56:47
Speaker 3: I think that there is a chance that teams are going to pursue him to start, which is a whole other conversation.
00:56:55
Speaker 1: I don't know.
00:56:55
Speaker 3: I think he might do even better than Tanner Scott. I think there's a chance if he just sticks as a reliever that, there might be enough of a bidding war that he could squeeze out a fifth year. So then you're looking at like five for 90.
00:57:07
Speaker 4: And I think if he.
00:57:09
Speaker 3: Tries the starter thing, he might get paid 20 million a year. And like, it might be like a three-year deal and you get the opt-outs to be able to capitalize.
00:57:17
Speaker 4: On your, your market after two years of being a starting pitcher. So I don't know.
00:57:21
Speaker 3: I think Asia more home does very well in this free agent class.
00:57:25
Speaker 4: I said it on my show today.
00:57:27
Speaker 3: I was like, honestly, if you're telling me who's the second best pitcher, pitcher in this free agent class. Like obviously Michael King's going to do better. He's a starting pitcher. Freddie Peralta is probably do better. He's a starting pitcher. I kind of think like more a hone and schoolable are like the two might be the two most coveted arms aside from just school pricing himself out of a lot of places, but I couldn't love more hone more obviously.
00:57:50
Speaker 1: Interesting.
00:57:51
Speaker 2: And I don't disagree with any of what you just said. So Jack, who's going to make more hone a rich man.
00:57:57
Speaker 1: If he's a reliever, He prices himself out of a lot of situations. But if he's a starter, there are a whole bunch of teams that are interested in the services of Adrian Morajon. If he's a reliever, the team that jumps to mind to me is Philadelphia. I think if you paired Morajon and Duran, that's diabolically awesome. And that is Dave Dombrowski signaling, we're not going anywhere, folks. That's the team that jumped out to me if they were going to make him a reliever. Now, there are two that I personally freaking love with the opportunity to try starting. And if it doesn't work, you have one of the best set up guys in Major League Baseball. Very similar to what the Mets did with Clay Holmes.
00:58:43
Speaker 2: Right.
00:58:45
Speaker 1: I think the Orioles are my silver. I think Baltimore can absolutely try him as a starting pitcher. And worst comes to worst, you have him close games. And when Felix Bautista is back to being Bautista, Morajon and Bautista is nuts. And then I think the Cubs are the perfect fit for Morahan. The Cubs need starting pitching help. They also need a closer. I mean, he's going to do one of them. So I think... you can figure it out when you get him in Mesa and into your facility. But I think the Cubs and Morahan are a match made in heaven.
00:59:19
Speaker 2: Yeah, I could totally see that because, you know, there's been reports out that the Cubs want Tarek Scouble badly, but they aren't willing to go the three a hundred million dollar range. And Scooble is probably going to be in the mid threes, potentially even touching $ 400 million. So you have to assume they're out on that one. And then, you know, it's a lot of starting pitchers who are solid, but if you want
to, you know, go with an upside play who might be a little bit cheaper in Adrian more hone over a Michael King or Freddie Peralta or any of these guys, like that's where I feel the Cubs could slot in. And I totally agree the same conversation with the Orioles. I think they're in a very similar, you know, bucket there. Um, I also look at Boston Red Sox and I know they still have a pretty damn good bullpen, but I also think about a Red Sox team that's, you know, done a really good job developing these young left-handed starters. And I'm curious if they see his stuff profile and they're like, I want to get my hands on him as well. Um, so that's another name that I thought of, but that's more of the bronze kind of just, uh, you know, throw their hat into the ring type of play, but I'm totally with you, Jack. I think the Cubs and the Orioles and the Phillies should be on the forefront. Fink, any other teams that we missed there for more home where you can fill in the gaps or do you agree?
01:00:38
Speaker 3: I mean, I think when you're talking about guys are going to make this amount of money, you'd have to throw both the New York teams into the ring. If, if the Yankees don't get Bednar back, you know, you kind of split the difference.
01:00:48
Speaker 4: Bednar signed somewhere else.
01:00:49
Speaker 3: You get QO picks coming back your way and you sign another reliever.
01:00:53
Speaker 4: Gets QO pick. So, I can see that.
01:00:55
Speaker 3: I can see the Mets, especially if it's the starter route that feels very similar to what they did with Holmes and could be kind of a David Stearns idea of how to add more starting pitching without paying the top end guys. But it's like there's not a team in baseball that couldn't use an Adrian Morajon. It's just a matter of how many teams in baseball can afford a Morajon with what he's going to get paid.
01:01:17
Speaker 2: Well, maybe we should talk Morajon on tomorrow's episode because tomorrow's episode of the Just Baseball Show is going to be the top 10 starting pitchers available in free agency. We're going to do the same thing here. So make sure if you are enjoying these episodes, the best way to support the just baseball show is simply by liking this video, keeping the comment section rolling and make sure to subscribe and turn on the bell. So you never miss one of these shows here live on YouTube, but also for our audio crowd, if you're enjoying the shows, make sure to just leave a five-star review and a written review would be very, very kind. If you want to continue the conversation, Join our Discord, the best baseball group chat in the world. So much fun during the offseason. We're talking trades. We're talking rumors. We're talking free agency. We're talking everything that we hear. We're dropping it in Discord. So make sure if you want to continue that conversation, you can find the link in the episode description. Special shout out to Podcast P for brilliant producing once again. And again, thank you to everybody for joining us here live on YouTube. For Jack McClellan, Ryan Finkelstein, I am Peter Appel. We will see you tomorrow again live on YouTube at 1.30 p.m. Eastern. And with that, thank you, everybody.