Full Transcript for Sharp or Square - FINAL NFL WEEK 9 Bets: Bucs-Bears, Cowboys-Colts and more

year with Mahomes. We've seen it play out this year where it's like, Mahomes' games are just close. He doesn't have that good of weapons on the outside like we've talked about, and You've talked injuries to defense. 00:03:14 Speaker 2: That stuff matters in the secondary. So not great. 00:03:16 Speaker 3: Garrett Wilson is obviously going to miss this matchup. But it's just such a big spread, and we expect, you know, to have tons of time behind that Jets offensive line passing against a bad secondary. 00:03:25 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's also a game I've heard from more than enough people that they might take a little taste of the Jets on the money line. I think that's– That's just being silly confident, but we certainly do like the number. We liked that we were getting it at 10. We liked that we were getting it at 10 and a half. We'll see if we want to take it out. Denver at Carolina. This one was, Simon says, it was at three early in the week. It's generally been at two and a half, but it's juiced to go to three. In the contest, it's going to stay at two and a half. I worry about the fact that Panthers offensive line has been injured and they're not going to be at full strength. But at the end of the day, I'm still comfortable betting into the spot with Bryce Young as a home dog when they've consistently been a team you want to back after they haven't covered. And I like his ability to beat the back end of this Broncos defense that as much pressure as they've been getting, that is the primary way they stop teams is pressure if he can evade and step up in the pocket that's when he usually beats teams. 00:04:46 Speaker 3: Yeah it's like you're talking about it's just a scary game to bet because we know how much better denver is overall it's really a simple bet on bryce young simply bouncing back consistently in these spots for us where when no one believes in them this is exact moment me and you step in and tend to back and especially as a home dog so Again, everyone out there has reached out to me about it, how gross this feels and how much they hate this. You're in a nice position if you get the three. Me and Chad don't have that luxury. No matter what, that's just the way it's worked. It's the same with Polymarket. That's what Polymarket had him at all week as well. It's a line that, yeah, if you feel more confident, obviously having the three, but the two and a half, it's not scared us off. This number has basically been two and a half all week, which just shows that the books. 00:05:28 Speaker 2: Are taking a stand with us. They've been getting. 00:05:31 Speaker 3: tons of tons of tons of Denver money like most places I've talked to it's just all Denver money that's the theme this week though the public is very one-sided this week and that's why it's gonna be interesting to see how this week goes where um this is another game the books are taking a stand on it's when I'll take a stand on where it's like Denver they're just a different team we seem

especially on the road this year and uh we just all think collectively they're just a little overrated right but the general public doesn't think that they think Carolina is a terrible team. The Denver should blow them out there, which they could be proven right. But when I look at these two teams, it feels very evenly matched. This probably should be closer to a pick. We're getting a free one to two point bump here just because the sediment's so low in Carolina after two really bad losses in a row. 00:06:11 Speaker 1: And a little bit high on Denver when they keep pulling rabbits out of the hat. This was the Jets and the Panthers. When we talk about luck rankings, which we like to do, the Jets were a luck rankings game. a matchup between two teams where one team has been getting luckier in the way it's been winning than the other team. Right on the edge was Carolina as a luck rankings matchup against Denver. Didn't quite make the cut, didn't quite cross the threshold, but it was the only other game that came close. Simon, this next game, it is time for our closing time segment. Trade of the Week presented by Polymarket and this one, brother. We've been on the edge of this one all freaking week. It is the Indianapolis Colts currently trading at four and a half at 50% on Polymarket. It's actually at five and a half in the contest. So a little bit of value on that right now. I'm just looking at the numbers as we speak. Look, all the trade talk about Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor. They're still on the Colts. We know the professionals have been hitting the Colts. This is our closing time trade. You said you wanted to be gross before the show. What turned the tide for you on this one? 00:07:44 Speaker 3: It is the health, too, of the offense of the Colts. They're getting guys back. Obviously, they've had Warren back down. Josh Downs is playing as well. With them– Having them on the outside is a big deal. Like, we've seen what this offense has been with no receiving option, where Keenan Allen's been their go-to guy, and it just has not been working. So the fact that Warren's playing fully healthy now, it's his second week back. He should be a big addition, obviously, against this terrible Dallas defense. And it's just, we talk all the time about situational. We know we're walking into here, right? The Colts have, because these guys got totally packed in, quit on their coach, and their season's totally over. But it's just an aggressively high line against a Dallas team that's just terrible. Defensively, they're terrible. Now, Dak can potentially get his. We know this matchup favors them in many ways. But I look at this Colts team, and if they have anything left of pride, they should be able to do whatever they want offensively. This is a great matchup, especially scheme-wise for them with Jonathan Taylor. And who knows if this is it for Jonathan Taylor. That's something that has to weigh in his mind as well, playing hard at home potentially for the last

time in front of these fans. So it's just– It's another game where it's the public's all over Dallas, where it's like, this one doesn't make sense to me. This is the exact spot you do play the Colts. I know there are terrible teams. A lot of people listen to this show, and I agree with you, but are you really betting the Colts are only going to win two games, two to three games this year? 00:09:01 Speaker 2: Potentially, but this is the exact type of game they would steal. 00:09:04 Speaker 3: These are the type of scenarios you weigh when you're looking at these matchups. I totally get why the public is hammering Dallas, but it's very telling this line's gone from Five and a half, six to four, back to four and a half. Now it's kind of held at four and a half the rest of the week. So I just think it's a key number. It's a great, great line here on this cold side against a Dallas team that potentially is going to put up a lot of points. 00:09:26 Speaker 2: We've just seen this team. 00:09:27 Speaker 3: Has struggled to close out games offensively, especially in the fourth and third quarter. 00:09:31 Speaker 1: All right. I need to tell you about this new prediction market. called Polymarket. It's the best new way to trade in sports. In the past, if you wanted action on the game, you'd put some money in, and if your team was doing well and you wanted to cash out, they'd lock the trade or take a huge fee. But Polymarket is a prediction market, a stock exchange for sports where you can buy and sell on your teams. I've tried them all, and Polymarket is simply the best prediction market They're so confident you'll never go back to the other guys. They're giving you a free $ 25 on your first trade when you deposit just $ 10. And now they've launched a new feature, Squads, a group chat where you can see what everyone is trading on. Check the link in the description below. to join my squad today and sweat picks together every Sunday in the Polymarket app. So download the Polymarket app today and use Sharp when you sign up. That's Sharp to get $ 25 free after you deposit just $ 10. Las Vegas Raiders plus nine and a half at San Francisco. We got this one at 10 and a half in the contest on Thursday. So another one where we're getting the best of the numbers. It's down to nine and a half in the books. Mike Evans being out, as we've discussed, is a really big difference maker. Brock Purdy's QBR, when Mike Evans is playing, is in the 140s. When he's not, it's in the 70s. The Niners get Bosa and Brentston Buckner, the trade from the Colts, this week. 10 points is a lot, a lot against a Raiders team that is averaging 28 a game, that is consistently shown, except in a couple spots, that They can cover the back door, and they are very happy trying to squeeze every last point out of a game, whether it's over or not. 00:11:29 Speaker 2: Yep, another week where we're basically just betting on Kirk Cousins. That's all this is. 00:11:33 Speaker 1: That's really what it is. Forget everything else. 00:11:36 Speaker 3: We know how horrible this Raiders team is, and we've seen all the underlying numbers, especially their defense. You're going against a 49ers team that most people power rate them as a top, two top three team right now in their radiance like they're just tons of tons of respect and it's just what they've done this year defensively and offensively it's just been dominant 49ers so it's it's not a it's not a bet we take lately we know what we're stepping into here taking this number but it really was us playing the number right it was. 00:12:04 Speaker 2: Plus 10 10 and a half we. 00:12:06 Speaker 3: Talked about it Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday so you know it's still at nine and a half at most places I'm shocked it's honestly stayed up that high because we talked about Mike Evans news I just thought more people react off that. 00:12:18 Speaker 1: Yeah, me too. 00:12:20 Speaker 2: It makes sense though, whether or not. 00:12:21 Speaker 3: Just because you look at this matchup, it's like, well, they can beat you in so many ways. 49ers. He, of all the matchups, he would matter less to, it would be this for Mike Evans, where it's like, you don't need your dominant number one. 00:12:33 Speaker 2: This isn't Seattle, right? Seattle. 00:12:35 Speaker 3: That's where Mike Evans really matters. But this, I agree with a lot of people that reach out to people. It's like, they can, they can win with McCaffrey and Purdy only thrown 15 times, which is very true. Like this is, a great match for 49ers. I just think with Kirk Cousins, what we've talked about, he's always got the option to find those backdoor covers because they have so many weapons offensively and they just never give up. Like you've just seen the way they've schemed this offense, especially with Kubiak calling the plays with Brock Bowers. It's like, if he needs a force to the Brock Bowers five times on a drive, he's happy to do that. And I love that in Kubiak, which is like, get it to your best guy. And, we look at this offense and we've talked about, they've figured out that run game as well. The Raiders, like that's been a huge deal for them. So it is a big deal. Obviously defensive players, they've gotten back. Obviously Bosa before he got hurt was playing incredible high level, but it's just a big, big number. And Kirk has done so well for us covering those big numbers. So you have all the bets. I'm probably lukewarm about the most. It's this one just because of the movement. It's down to nine and a half. I liked it way more. I've seen a 10 where the jets, I don't really care about that much. This one, I need those points because it's just, The 49ers are not the Chiefs. The 49ers are just a total, complete, great team. 00:13:43 Speaker 1: Well, that's going to be a factor if we decide to change out a game from our Final Five because we did get the Raiders at 10.5 in the contest. They're now 9.5 in the contest. So if we're going to make some

changes, if there's a game we like better, maybe that's one that's coming out. Tampa Bay plus 6.5 at Chicago, mostly at 6.0. at different sports books, I feel like we're betting against Caleb and Ben at our own peril. I know the Bucks defense is much improved. I know the DVOA for this team does not show that they are a three and five team. I know their running game has been elite the past several weeks. I'm assuming Baker will find a way to complete more than six passes in this game. But is Caleb the most confident professional quarterback in the NFL right now? Is this Bears team a juggernaut that we are being foolish to try to get in front of? Confidence level on the Bucs right now. 00:15:03 Speaker 3: I would say most football fans would still say Caleb's having a great year, but like Josh Allen, Brock Purdy, Joe Burrow. These guys are all having MVP season. I would not say Caleb's having MVP season yet. I would slow you down a little bit. He's not the most confident guy in football right now. He's a zestiest. I keep telling you that he's zesty. But I don't know if he's the most confident quarterback. But yeah, he's dancing in the locker room. He's having the time of his life. The vibes are peak, but If I can make you feel a little better, the pros are all over this with us. 00:15:35 Speaker 2: Like, every pro I talk to, you love. 00:15:36 Speaker 1: Oh, I know. The line is going that way. 00:15:38 Speaker 3: Yeah, a couple books have already moved to five and a half, which is great. Like, we have six and a half, another key number that we got the best of. 00:15:44 Speaker 2: But, no, it doesn't feel good, me and you both. 00:15:46 Speaker 3: No, Baker could show up, throw two picks, be an absolute dud, and we could steamroll here 40-7. 00:15:52 Speaker 2: Like, this is terrifying. 00:15:54 Speaker 3: But on the flip side, like we've talked about, this Bucs defense– it's the mirror of that Vikings defense it doesn't get much better than this like this is going to be the best most you know elite type of system potentially that Caleb will face the rest of the year in defensive style where they're going to give him a bunch of looks he's not going to be used to and that's going to be interesting how he adjusts to that and you know what Ben's going to do Ben's going to try to run it down the buck's throat he's just going to say yes stop the run and then if you can't we'll beat you to play action that's what Ben does so Yeah, the whole underlying stuff I love. We're really just playing the number in the situation of the Bears are a great team, but they tend to beat up. We've seen on bad defenses when they face is so far what we've seen when they face really good defenses. It's a different story, right? And that's what we're banking on here and are just our only fear is really we don't know we're getting with Baker, but it feels like enough time has passed. Whatever that issue was on the throwing hand with a thumb or whatever. It's got to be much better now than it was say two and a half three weeks ago when he came back. 00:16:53 Speaker 2: Like it's just. 00:16:55 Speaker 3: At this point, he's not had an excuse of, well, he's been throwing into guys he's been hitting and banging on stuff. 00:16:59 Speaker 2: It's like, dude, you've completed six passes in two weeks. 00:17:04 Speaker 3: It's like there is no excuse. That hand should be more than enough rested. From what I saw in practice this week, he looked actually better. I don't know if you saw it. Maybe it might be a little chilly. True football weather finally in Chicago. It might be in the 40s, 35 degrees for this game. That's another thing I think favors this Bucs defense where Yeah, it's going to be a great one, Chad, like we talked about. It's a tough one to pass on a snack because you have the best number. There's other games I might like more. But for contest-wise, yeah, six and a half. It's probably five and a half live now. That's great value for us. 00:17:38 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's tough. We're going to have some hard decisions to make in a minute. Two other ones I just want to quickly discuss. Detroit at Miami. We've liked Miami all week. it's consensus six and a half now, and that's also what it is in the contest. I don't know that I'd like Miami enough at six and a half to take out some of the games we have at better numbers, but it has moved. I think that a lot of people are coming in on Miami because there continue to be all of these injury questions about the Lions. I think that's the primary reason for the move. 00:18:16 Speaker 3: Yeah, unfortunately, I really hope this was going to have the same trend as last week. I thought the public would come in so heavy on Detroit. The books would give us the seven, seven and a half like they did last week on Miami, which that's where we always want to be. 00:18:27 Speaker 2: So I get your hesitation. Um, to me, I, I told you I'm too close to with Miami. I love them. 00:18:35 Speaker 3: I love this situation, the spot, the, the golf outdoors, it's going to be a hundred percent humidity. I think in the mid eighties for this matchup. 00:18:42 Speaker 1: Nice and sunny, sunny, sunny day. No, no rain, no rain. 00:18:46 Speaker 3: They're wearing, they're wearing the Hawaiian blue. So, um, Can the heat affect them? 00:18:51 Speaker 2: Maybe. 00:18:52 Speaker 3: But it's just situationally, I look at this Miami team where it's like, you know, all the injuries they have to their team, Detroit, they couldn't afford, especially in the secondary. It's like, okay, this might be a nice little sneaky spot for Miami. So I get why you're not loving it just because we're not getting the seven, which makes total sense. It is not the best number, but I just love the situation, the spot for Miami. But like I said, I think I'm too close to it. Like I just, this Miami team has been cashing for me every week and I can't get away from them. 00:19:19 Speaker 1: LA Rams are now down to four and a half

against the commanders. Last game I want to talk about. If you like the Rams, we're getting the best of the number we've gotten all week. So it could be a sneaky final five for us. I think you're much more confident about the Rams than I am. Cause I think the biggest challenge for them is going to be what the commander strength is, which is Jaden Daniels ability to run. And when that has been a factor in games, It helps keeps the communication close especially late in games when you know more than a field goal very possible they continue to play through the whistle even when the game's out of reach. 00:20:03 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's fair. I mean, I'll go through it really quick. 00:20:06 Speaker 3: What I said to you before the show is I just loved a lot of games this week, and I'll just run through the favorites I like. I like the Rams, I like the Saints, I like Houston, and I like New England. So that's going to be the thing. We're leaving out a lot of favorites I like this week that I bet, and this is just another one of those games I like to match up. Myles Garrett, most likely going to play. If there's one guy, that's going to be a huge problem. for jane daniels it's going to be him like that's we have not had the aaron donald play with miles garrett situation yet that's like i've dreamt of this moment since the whole thing went down it's like this is what i i want i want to see these two guys together and who knows with miles right maybe miles is not the same player and that is a big big deal his knee injury um i mean we haven't talked about aj brown thing with the you know like that number went up to minus three and a half and it came back down just because aj is going to miss the game and I know Eagles fans are victory lapping the whole first round pick. I don't feel like people realize enough how that, the only reason the New England was the only team in the NFL that gave up that first round pick was the whole Rossini situation. Like that whole, the NFL wanted the whole Rossini variable thing to disappear. There was only one reporter pushing the one team and it was AJ Brown to the Patriots. That's the only reason the Eagles got a first round pick. Everyone knew about AJ having a bad name. So, I know people are just like, oh, they fleeced him. It's like, dude, they just avoided a lawsuit. That was all that was. AJ was not worth the first. And I get why Patriots fans are so mad and why that number's moved. But it's like, I still think it's a great spot for the Patriots. So it's the same thing with like the Rams. I just like the number. 00:21:46 Speaker 2: I like the situation. 00:21:47 Speaker 3: And matchup wise, I think the Rams are, You know, as much as people are knocking them how bad they've been this year, especially closing out games, if you look, when they play bad teams, they tend to blow them out. I still think this Washington team is a bad team. Don't let that Eagles game fool you last week. I mean, that was close to halftime. The Eagles just simply rolled over in that second half. The Rams ain't rolling over in the second half. They desperately need this game. So, yeah, that's another game where I know a lot of pros on Washington. I've been on the Rams side, the other side all week. 00:22:16 Speaker 1: I don't even know what conspiracy theory you're talking about. That there could have been a lawsuit with the Patriots and the Eagles. 00:22:26 Speaker 3: There was only one reporter pushing A.J. 00:22:28 Speaker 2: Brown to the Patriots. 00:22:30 Speaker 1: I get that. I don't know what the lawsuit was going to be. 00:22:33 Speaker 3: It would be that Vrabel was feeding her information a push into the media. 00:22:36 Speaker 2: That's collusion. 00:22:38 Speaker 1: I don't know about that. That feels bad. 00:22:42 Speaker 3: You know a lot of coaches sleep with reporters giving out info this season? 00:22:45 Speaker 2: Push them out there. I would love to hear these coaches' relationships you think that are happening, Chad. listen, it's a big deal. I know you don't think it's a big deal. It's, it's a huge deal. There's going to be a big lawsuit. 00:22:55 Speaker 1: I don't know about that, but, uh, we could go into a rabbit hole on that and we can save it for Tuesday. Cause I got a lot of thoughts on collusion and reporters being fed information, no matter of what the romantic relationship is in the, uh, amongst the people who are sharing the information. Let's talk about it on Tuesday. But, um, Right now, we got to make a call because we got the Raiders at plus 10.5. We have the Jets at plus 10.5. Remember, we put these in on Thursday. We got the Panthers plus 2.5. We got the Bucs plus 6.5. And we got Seattle minus 8.5. I feel like the only game that is tempting... is probably the colts it's at five and a half in the contest four and a half now but that means we're blowing up a map in which we have pretty good numbers above 10 on both the jets and the raiders. 00:24:01 Speaker 3: Yeah totally up to you i mean i told you i have so many games i like i can take out stuff and put other stuff in but yeah like those that five is good like we did a good job picking them out thursday we got good numbers and i i'm more than happy comfortable letting her ride but um Yeah, like there's games we've left out that, sure, we want to switch. I mean, I'm still all over Seattle, but you hear reports this week that, you know, Drew Locke has tendonitis in his throwing elbow. 00:24:26 Speaker 1: You know what? 00:24:27 Speaker 3: No one wants to hear that type of report, but it's like, what are you going to do? 00:24:30 Speaker 1: That might be better for us because that means he's throwing less and it's just fewer chances for an interception and they're running the ball. Let's think about this. What are your... biggest bets right now how have they changed since thursday taking into account some of these favorites maybe that'll inform some of our decision making here i don't know seattle

and carolina. 00:24:56 Speaker 3: It's not like a normal week like i just everything's spread out there's no two or three big big bets for me honestly this week everything's spread out like if if i if the if the public gets slaughtered this week i'm going to make an absolute fortune that's what this week's really going to be like this, if the Colts can win outright, if the Eagles can win outright, if Miami wins outright, if Carolina wins, you know, then tonight, if Chicago loses, if Buffalo lose tomorrow, those are all make or break games. Like I have a lot of money in Minnesota. I have a lot of money in Tampa. I have a lot of money in new England. But yeah, like still bed heavily into Seattle. It's just a wonky week. Like usually I'm really hyper-focused on a couple of games of this week. It's really played out where a lot of lines have gone in ways I like. And, I just, I don't know if it's so much the public's overrating a lot of teams that it feels that way. We're like, I understand a lot of, I'm worried about teams quitting on the quitting this season too. Like the Eagles, the reason I'm not talking about hyping them up on the show is because they easily could have quit on Sirian on the season. It's like, no doubt. 00:25:57 Speaker 2: I get that. 00:25:58 Speaker 3: But it's also, I can't get over the fact that people are hammering JJ McCarthy as a three and a half point. 00:26:02 Speaker 2: Favorite on the road. 00:26:03 Speaker 3: So it's like, I try to talk sense into some people with that where it's like, I get it. 00:26:07 Speaker 2: It's Joe Milton. 00:26:08 Speaker 3: Like there's nothing I can make you hang your hat on this Eagles team, but, situationally that was. 00:26:12 Speaker 2: A great number three and a half and that's why it's come down to three. 00:26:15 Speaker 3: Despite 80 of the money 80 of the bets all over the giants so it's just that's the way this week has worked out it's been kind of wonky with me where it's like i'm trying to get people to bet the colts i mean how many listeners we have say we have 100 000 listeners today maybe 2 000 bet the colts because no one wants that situation and that's what i'm trying to drill into people it's like we get it no one wants to bet them either but this is it we'll bet the colts and then next week if they cover and they win Maybe we can stay away from the Colts now for three or four weeks. It's just this is the exact time we want to back the Colts. So that's the toughest part with this where it's like I'm trying to get people to bet on sides where I know it's just gross and uncomfortable, but it's like you have to bet when these teams are totally rock bottom undervalued. And that's what it feels like the Colts are, and that's what it feels like a lot of these teams are this week. So it's going to be really interesting how it plays out where it's just– it feels like the public thinks they're getting an easy week where it's like, I don't know, this feels like a really trappy week. 00:27:08 Speaker 1: I think we keep our powder dry. I think we stick with the five we got because we got really good numbers and we take advantage of that. 00:27:19 Speaker 2: Looks good. 00:27:20 Speaker 1: All right. Then our final five, it's going to be the New York Jets plus 10.5 against the Kansas City Chiefs. Las Vegas Raiders plus 10.5 against the San Francisco 49ers. Carolina minus 8.5. They're playing Arizona. I'm sorry, Seattle minus 8.5. They're playing Arizona. Carolina plus 2.5. And I guess we're doing the Bucs plus 6.5 against the Chicago Bears. That's our show. We'll be back tonight, 7.30, live on Sharp or Square YouTube channel with our instant reactions to the afternoon games. This has been Sharper Square presented by Polymarket, part of the Volume Podcast Network. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until tonight, love you. 00:28:27 Speaker 2: He's a hoe, and I want that known. I see why he got punched in the nuts. He says some things that you should not say to another man, ever. but I don't respect it, because you say that, then run behind your O-line. That's some real soft, and I want that known. I see exactly why they punched the nuts. I'm surprised nobody punched them in the jaw yet.