ABOUT THIS EPISODE

This week we try to work out who's up and who's down in the great game of European politics. Has May won anything significant in the Brexit deal? Is Merkel any nearer to forming a government? Is Macron the big winner from recent events? Plus we ask what prospect of Martin Schulz getting his United States of Europe, and what chance now of Jeremy Corbyn making it to No 10. With Helen Thompson, Chris Brooke and Chris Bickerton.

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TRANSCRIPT

00:00:02hello my name is David runciman and this is talking politics this week we're going to talk about who's up and who's down in The Never Ending game of snakes and ladders that is European politics
00:00:14talking politics is brought to you in partnership with the London Review of Books Europe's leading magazine of books and ideas we've already had some LLB right is on this podcast and we'll have some more soon as a reading list the pieces to accompany the podcast at lb. Co. Uk Foods tool Kings along with the special subscription offer talking politics news 12 issues of Phyllis expensive elegant writing but just 12 lb
00:00:44I'm delighted to say we have a full panel with us this week Helen Thompson is not to conceive a gold prospecting sledging on the proper time Chris Brook the ceiling lights
00:01:24I'm Chris if we could start with something you said a few weeks ago which was December was going to be the point where I
00:01:32we would be making a break for at least two reasons my strategy and I suppose in a way we were but the thing I was struck by is as you described it for the Europeans this is a process process whole sex high-stakes politics for them it's a process but the price seems familiar one which is the high-stakes game over the summit or the overnight meeting with the press that old is going to be really hard to get a deal it looks like it's all gone wrong I know the last minute out of the heart comes the rabbit it's familiar from the Greek crisis is 4 minute from your precious Illini Beetle price it was different something about brexit meant that it wouldn't be that usual European packing I'll take you to the brink and then finding a solution on yet this one just looks like there's other than some missing something it just reminded me of the classic way that the European Union Kick the Can down the road from the British perspective I think it does have that sense of
00:02:32being on the brink throw away grease in this right well I suppose yes since resume I think so that she had some sort of the deal she then had to go back and read negotiate with the tup and there's lots of sort of Cliff Cliff Edge aspect to the discussions to new Europeans I don't think that's really how it's being seen I think that was a sudden sensitive criteria that needed to be ticked off the whole problem that raise my heart with the DP was a British Affair I think the Irish were holding that line and hoping that the government should stay with him which they did so I think from the European side isn't really as dramatic as existential as the Greek crisis was a minister as eminently political I think Europeans could have walked away feels like the Greek one is that it look like a game of life and that in the end they will came to come to a deal will the British reading of this and this is what came out over the weekend is something wrong
00:03:32signs of the Europeans or No Deal means and didn't want to go that I think that's totally mischaracterizes what has happened and post deal Unity amongst the names of the cabinets in the torque on his whole I think reflects a pretty bizarre reading of what was actually agreed I think from the use perspective they had the red lines that had the different packages that have to be agreed the Irish one was a British problem British conceited I think pretty much all that mentality on the EU side you can see why they're satisfied because they got what they wanted on the British side I think the outcome is essentially that in the absence of a very generous free trade agreement that covers rules of aspects the default position of the companies accept it is to remain in the single Market in the Customs Union and that's the only way that the Irish pub in can be solved now from the British government expect him to go
00:04:32changing brakes I said quite strange to Fulton re what is the one that they've signed up to so I can see why the US satisfied I find it pretty busy that the the British government and sunny the brexit is a thing this the Triumph it's manifestly nothing like that because I think that the question isn't being kicked down the road what it would mean to say that if they were no deal that they would be essentially regular tree alignment in those messages pertaining to essentially to the Good Friday agreement and Angela by which Corporation
00:05:14can we go to the single Market in the Customs Union I mean thoughts not something that is open to a considerable amount of interpretation I think that if you look at it from the point of view of what they always come in 1/2 in X absolute called guarantees they have not got like from such such wording I think it's surprising that the conservative have been made in Duncan Smith space in the telegraph we might get him to be quiet be opposed to the agreement I think the most significant thing this out the European Union at this point I think that means the Commission in the major components have shown first then not very interested in a lion with all these people in British politics you want to stop Braxton and second that they don't really want to rule out the possibility at least for now of that being some kind of trade agreement and I think both of those were open questions
00:06:14we go to last week it was going home with him because he is not a single actor in this but I think it was a plausible hypothesis that they were some he wanted to try to stop brexit and it was a plausible hypothesis that there was some he wanted to make sure that person got no trade agreement to the end of it I think not of those hypothesis is the price of last week so would you say that the biggest difference from a week ago is that the likelihood of brexit not happening is fastly diminished take from it may be missing something like reading is the opposite so the Irish Question in Longview was resolved in Anacortes and put away from those governments perspective they wanted as you said from guarantees that there be no aspects of any sort of border control the Border checks of any kind the only way to guarantee that would be to guarantee the northern Island remains within the customers you
00:07:14in the single Market off to the UK has left no bus leave from Union inspector that's unacceptable because that means essentially cutting off Northern Ireland from the rest of the United Kingdom more than just economically speaking now is the way that was solved was by promising that in the absence of a deal that would be no return of a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland because the UK as a whole would not diverge significantly and regulate returns from Northern Ireland on from the Republican find IE would remain within the single Market in the in the text says it it's only need for those messages that are crucial to I know I wish agreement to me Good Friday agreement hold scope for interpretation about what businesses are but this is what this is why I think the the issue becomes really important for the next phase which is that people have done a study of how many issues are rather than here and their various estimates what's 150 separate issues as a lot of things it's not just
00:08:15effusive outstanding trade related issues as a foster real things the question is whether any sort of deal offered by the European Union in the form of a trade deal could Encompass all those issues such that that problem goes away once the UK negotiate a trade deal as far as I can tell given was on the table from the user perspective there's no chance that they would be a match between what the office to UK auditions affected with all the Irish Border so that it she's going to have to be resolved on the wrong but just to be there was the thing that you were disagreeing with the proposition that since a week ago it's now much less likely the brexit went up
00:08:53my feeling is that it is more likely the brexit won't happen. I had too many double negative thoughts Clara happen because the issue of whether the free-trade deal offered by the EU encompasses all of the issues raised by the question of the Irish Border I don't think that is going to happen before the question what to do with the Irish bodhran how to manage the divergens to regulate UI benefits going to crop up once a free-trade deal is being signed off with him to come up again and you pick up and ask for when he commited itself in that context to keep Northern Ireland and Republic of Ireland as close together as possible which means keeping the UK as a whole within the open to the single Market in the Customs Union could we open the great too much this will cost that is a disagreement would be a no way Style full backup option in the language of the critical time
00:09:53girls found about how the 46 9/49 of the joint report in the EU in the UK but I think I lean more toward smart other Chris is saying because the two key points the language stops functioning and that's the point about there being a guarantee of Mohawk Border in island and also the point of the any change in the relationship between the northern Irish economy and the rest of the UK single Market requires the consent of the Northern Ireland assembly in the mall tonight and executive know what that means he's the one of the possible solutions to the Irish for the question was to run the Border down the Irish Sea and the British government and the Democratic unionist party will have a veto on any move in that direction that's where the language
00:10:46isn't fake I think it's quite tough and I agree with Chris it's right difficult whatever David David says about it not being legally enforceable but merely a statement of intent which is backtracked on whatever Michael Gove says about how you can always me to go she ate these things in the future that seems to be fairly unequivocal language and I don't really see how the conservatives who still want a pretty hard brexit I'm going to work that way around the side I do think last week was a Triumph Irish diplomacy so that means a heart breaks it is less likely but it doesn't mean the brexit is absolutely one of the places that have been kicked around last week was the brexit in name only I doubt it's going to be mad but then if it is going to be a family soft brexit it not being clear what's go pay raise for the development then it's going to be to resume tells us not to use the language of hard and soft anymore but it's going to be lots of people for he would
00:11:45a few weeks ago I think somebody's right on this point about not using this hard and soft brexit because it up the skates was actually an issue because sometimes hard brexit is used to me about brexit that he conomic X ends up with bush and essentially engaging in trade with Europe a present European Partners on w80 items and sometimes it means leaving the single market and a customs Union but having a reasonably comprehensive trade agreement to extremely different positions the 2nd which is the one that the government is trying to get to and it's been quite explicit that it's been trying to get to for some time now and then this is the one that it's trying to avoid and I think we would do better if we expect if I which of these it which one came out about them falling back on hard soft language do I think that you clearly want to negotiate free-trade agreements I'll just don't think it will Encompass you nearly as much as it needs to know did you resolve the problem of Northern Ireland that will just be back to the situation that we were in a week ago
00:12:46and you know 6229 months time and then it will be really dramatic and I think this is what case Thomas at now soaked almonds he said if there was even a prospect of violence returning to know that I didn't we have to have the option of remaining in the single market and the Customs Union back on the table and I think that's exactly the kind of argument is going to come up in the next six to six to nine months so the other thing is clear he changed in a week is Theresa May's position I've been in California this week but they're not to eat my breakfast so much I read the Times a few days ago and just enough to be important just to that point where the X in that kind of field of Columbus income of some dream I was saying it cannot go on anymore this is the week is prime minister of the head of the week is government in Northern British history the end is in sight of the well maybe I'll come back in California now beautiful prime minister come back from California and she is being treated as someone who has not just rescued her in position party back right back in the game
00:13:45I'm again. Seems to me extraordinary given what you just described that nothing's been resolved here and yet her position looks from California to have been transformed by this everything depends on how long the right-wing disciples a happy with what happened last week and walked the rest of him in a supposed to side they're going to do about things that means specific to go even if it means Johnson it means Liam false he's being extremely quiet over the weekend go to Ben Davis of sad things that says backtracked
00:14:23Johnson is Johnson foxes being silent but it's ministers like those for who will have to be meeting and planning what they're going to do because what happened last week wasn't pretty good from that point of you know it may very well be that they know that in a sense that I busted flash that is to say the position they represent in the conservative party doesn't have the numbers. Government of course especially now that the deal has been done so it may be that we see one by one of them accommodation themselves to the new status quo and I seen speculation that mr. guy was very high-profile interesting animal welfare in the moment is his new wife positioning can sell 2 of under the leadership of the kids have to pop a the conservative party did very badly at the election especially in the world of social media from people concerned about fox say is an animal welfare issues and he said it's going to be a good brexit for animals and he said it's going to be a good but set for animals so I think there's a lot of recalibration
00:15:23and Mrs May's future in part turns on how much trouble have right flank decides to make for her but a lot of people trying to see who's going to make the first move I don't think it's an accident but we had David Davis and one thing on Sunday and then walking it back on Monday I think a lot of politicians have even more incentive than usual to say hello. I make you a staying's contradict themselves squirt out a lot of sweating while they take the LIE of the land and decide what to do next but it's supposed to say she's not going to matter for the next few months talking politics is brought to you in partnership with the London Review of Books
00:16:07the recording is a day earlier than normal and happening 36000 + x again scene from California and I guess I was literally the only person California he was thinking about what would happen to Damien greens but there was a report a few days ago saying that he would be gone by Wednesday and then another one that couple of days ago saying he had been exonerated and then little Kinfolk tweeted saying and I will know so we'll see but a certain amount of trees Amaze fake does hang or not she certainly would have been will be if it happens severely weakened of her most Senior High Lie is. Resign but if he isn't. Resign and he can continue is it not the case that the thing that the general election seem to have destroyed which was Whole 30 under 30 depending on how to take you to strengthen those drinks were thought to be tonight sweetie what's up and kind of dog eat nuts and getting the job done
00:17:02ignoring some of the frost of politics and simply planning on when people are saying trees what the hell do you think you're doing there is a feeling that some of that has come back into Focus that we know what her weaknesses all know she's a terrible campaign out front if you got general election to fight but some of the qualities is a politician look like and it's making the Public's mind as well as in the positions my back from in center of British politics how she made herself the in electrical terms remarkable prime minister that she was in the spring of this year it seems like ages ago now but it really was I need a couple of Seasons a guy she seem to be somebody who rejected the way in which politics of being done or just buy her immediate predecessor bought by tiny black to this fighting over the 24-hour news cycle account of emphasis on Brown politics if you like of a substance she seem to be somebody who go to head down and go on with things and then
00:18:02it became clear Journey election campaign that that still is liability is why of communicating in politics when you have to try to immediately to win elections and I think she has a certain kind of double down on her old advantages if you like buy a present predicament and that is is that she's kind of out of the competition for power in the sense that she's going to be gone within a certain day before the next election she looks like somebody who's doing this out of a sense of Beauty on that was also a physical quality that seem to be one that she lays claim to you before things started going for the fact that she looks like somebody he was able to get this agreement so she's it is done in circumstances in which she in some sense is above the police code for I was me who said she doesn't have much will throw say actually plays to her preschool strength
00:19:02stronger position in relation to the the brexit is is that bad being forced to deal with the reality of whether they are looking to Sakura if you like a defensive brexit a transformative brexit and breakfasts is incredibly difficult the first thing that the brexit is need in it I mean by the conservative economic Landing place in order to make sure that is possible to take sufficient numbers of the British electric with them that there is not going to be a campaign once you left the European Union to get back into the European Union for that that has to be any comment London places in the fact that there is now the prospective are not anything like the guarantee of one I think means that her position is strengthened is well specs he's not playing the 24-hour news cycle game but this doesn't look like a pretty textbook example of how to manage expectations in the sense that like I said
00:20:02cast of the point where some of the newspapers are starting to fulminate that this cannot go on you produce milk the giant rabbit out of the hat but something that sufficiently divesting to just change the narrative I'm not is the way politics skillfully being done for the last 10 15 20 years I didn't get it goes back to where I started it seems to be the way that he you high-stakes negotiation should be done forever this was a preschool full version of expectation game for sex wasn't it it's always the executives that were involved it's not that the level of parties are parliaments is the level of government Executives and so to do those negotiations to get the deal at Reedy put her in the position of the maytals thority able to sign off on it to the one doing the negotiating her and her team and I think that rubbed off since I have luck I think in terms of timing the politics also has a rhythm and I think we were
00:21:02too kind of Hiatus possibly who knows the seasonal so decide to know the run-up to Christmas I mean there's only so file that plotting and planning can go timing is very important I think come January as some of the effects of this Phase 1 deal come out into the open I think will this is going to return already think it's a pretty short-lived. Of popularity that resume I don't want to be wet when I say it so much better than one of the Christmas is it cold in his position doesn't look as strong as it did a week ago simply because as I saw her at the strategy was to hold something together internally in the Labour party long enough for the makeup look for the part I don't know probably when he was saying I'll be Promise by Christmas he didn't mean it and it was just kind of part of the existence of an amazing election results but not only is he not going to be prime minister by Christmas there is Mother must be a possibility hear that they have to hold it together now for a couple of years that's much much
00:22:02challenging than waiting for an old fool apart that's true but I think it's still the case but cool beans long on the strategy of being very enigmatic about what he actually wants still unbalanced Works to his Advantage it's true the it no longer looks as if all the toy party is going to split the country's going to be coming back in about whether or not he could then stepping in covenant not to give this a serious crisis right now the government but I suspect would even if this week looks good for me and corresponding me that's good for Kobe and it is her week she got a deal she has a bounce in the polls I think that's to be expected but I think is always prefer to keep a low profile on brexit and when he has the opportunity to talk about jobs
00:23:02it may be the this week that looks like a less good strategy that has been in the past but I think it's a strategy for a medium to long time to stack Dave and I think he could afford to have weeks where he doesn't look so good but do you think that's going back to Chris's burn fat pussies having a rhythm the medium-to-long-term can extend all the white roof idea parlament it's not just about his age but it's about the impetus behind the cool been phenomenal the energy behind it which you can't I please see running through another year 18 months is my main home S7 E15 next election will let you never know but I got mad that can hold itself together even try to change leader to get to an election over 5 DSi cool that's a long time for the cooling project to maintain impetus and momentum and that this would be a transitional Parliament Labour party in the club
00:24:02well done his work and then they going to work out you are not going away because I genuinely I think happiness or thought he might be prime minister in 2018 if it looks like there will not be a labor government until at the earliest 2022 does the Labour party have to stop planning again for the Cove in succession is going to be about how much internal Warfare the part he decides to settle up on the question of this election is the one that hangs over Corbin's PLT critics and that was killed off at the sack election because the party at. Pickett Scandal it's incredibly fast they didn't have time to do the kind of bottom-up constituency Pocky driven selections the mystical beings support has warmed it will make a big difference whether these elections take the form of picking off a handful of Corbin's most egregious critics and then basically telling the PLP it up the fight about the controller to talk to you was full
00:25:02CVS Parliament they lost it and now the pot he will slowly adapt to the new year whether the Corbin Grassroots will push to a much broader and then they'll be right there space travel in the Party in the Park you will come to look to find it again and I don't have any sense of which way it's like you to go a lot of the discourse around momentum in Suwanee is potentially very misleading but it was oldest anxiety about a party we're going to party and so on and so on and then the election momentum just turned out to be a very large group of very well drilled volunteers who were engaged in a great deal of counsel tea selections on the way but her and guy has been
00:25:55pushing through a very controversial development vehicle development vehicle they call it and it's not some kind of purge if you want to call it back and then that's fine I did language in London's most controversial Barra suggest anything that's going to go on in the Labour party has a hole at the center of the right-wing the kop have being chastened but that may not be much to remove actually to get rid of them but Chris told about the second part of what you told by the internal conflicts relate to brexit in some sense to Broad factions within the life policy Redbox is concerned on the name of the first part of it I sent you he wants to reverse brexit would like to find a way either I'm not leaving the European Union or to find a way of trying to get back into some version of it and not always lead pencils and Union after March 2019 in my home alone transition would be a way of staying in transition login
00:26:55to get back into it the other part of the policy the cool been part of the body does not want that makes you play it will this looks to me that is playing at a tactical game with rocks in the morning which is to snipe at the government for not staying close enough to the single Market in the Customs Union without actually wanted to have a policy that substantially different than what we conservatives government is the shooting at the moment I don't think keeping those two positions in the same party be on March 2019 without that being significant functional Warfare about that is going to be very easy on those positions are I think they're definitely Division and I suppose won't kiss on the represents is this was the hardest law and on the remain solid that I have a party and Ice become official policy and there was a struggle over that I don't think on this road of critical side on the Jeremy corbyn side there is a particularly steep in principle disagreement with that I don't think that there is any vision of Walton alternative
00:27:55which would be a brexit alternative actually represent something on that left side of the party and so you have a bit of a struggle for power but I don't think of it as being so decisive all coming to a head I think one is like you to hold quite easily into into the other but I think the question about cool been in this situation it really goes back to where the coupon is a flash in the pan or whether this will reflects some people shift to the British Society normal but it's a curious Palace, because both sides compromised in the sentence the exit a Schwinn of the Labour party a book that support is disproportionately young urban enthusiastic the kind of people who are very pro-europe incongruously the Critics on the center on the right to the Lego party in the PLP then you label through and through many of bad instinctively much walking on the European Union and the great majority of them are sitting in pain after eating
00:28:55unc's with a local Pro leave majority so that's why I think it's going to be less traumatic for the party then I think I don't think that's going to be I think there's going to be a long of muddling through I don't think one of the things we've seen over the last 2 years and height for split partly that's the long run reactions to the sdp split in the 1980s but the bear aspects of Labor hockey do have a head a strong sense that they were in it together but I think if they were going to be a sweat it would have come by now and it hasn't and I think the different bits of the potty all committed to muddling through together however much they don't like one another so we can talk about snakes mother's for European politics willing to do the hollaback girl going to one of the best to wear at a similar kind of tension is playing out which is within at the main Social Democratic
00:29:55Germany which is having to decide whether or not to go into a coalition with Angela Merkel or least whether to adopt a position that may or may not make that possible he doesn't entirely depend on them but within that Dynamic there is clearly a conflict between the membership on the whole doesn't want to do it and the establishment of the party that weather at was in such a cutie or not too expensive tactical Niles thinks that they should try on Munson Schultz's go somewhere in the middle of this and he has made out of marker and this is all yesterday have to tell me if it is and what she said he is willing to potentially start these negotiations with one of his red lines for this will be that he won the European union to become something like a United States of Europe by a date like 20-25 which sounds to me finally Wishful on every level but it's saying that is he basically
00:30:55saying something that makes a deal impossible what does he actually is that is that a real thing to make a deal and possibly I think he's been putting a tricky situation I'd say the South and try stop the party establishment is driving this bus is some of the different instincts of the membership Martin Schulz I think cuz you turned into the backflip do you know change his position and I was falling back on his Basic Instincts and is trying to push those through as a way of giving himself some sense of direction the negotiations so this is just what you believe this is what he believes that there is a super which is this is precisely the thing which is least evident from the results of the elections themselves as know what the German people are aspect of that kind of condition building in that kind of an actual system where you get these things that emerge latro stage of negotiations because they're the whole bee horses of something powerful individuals but they correspond only very weakly to the actual results of the
00:31:55I need photos with drifting two parties that were expensive the Euros skeptic parties and social Spilled Out of the Hat this idea of United States of Europe which to be honest for other reasons may have some traction across Europe as a whole it was in Germany he's just stirring up problems for himself and for jump makes it just doesn't correspond to the results of the elections in politics got to see why we were started from over the course of the last 18 months or so I probably before about you go back to an 2015 in the Greek and Refugee and migrant crisis on the one side we have a problem with the Euro sign on a set of requirements ready for the ears are in to stabilize itself going into the future that require reform of the Eurozone and the kind things up my phone is being talking about now so part of shows his agenda don't see those two are in some kind of alliance with each other about these matters and that the core that in some sense is a question of
00:32:55what is the European Union do in a situation in which it has Eurozone members and non USA members I think you can understand brexit within the context of the Clash but it is an ongoing question 3 un 40 years are in a few. What's going on in the last even the last 6 months we seem and sometimes three different positions articulated Yanka and is a state of the of the European Union essentially said the word for the you use for everyone to join the Euros are in his big speech about Europe centuries at the Y for what is to create is a membership and he was out she imagining it to try to include still include person by the setting would be if you like a second if you need the hours of beers are in an oz compared them in that speech because essentially he said the way forward is is that everybody agrees to Federal European Union on Factory being in the US are we kicked out if they don't accept being in the European Union memes
00:33:55see you in the ways in which German and French politicians on the commission of engaging with this question of how we witness in some sense to teach you about the out at the same time if I do all these issues in various countries Democratic politics about consent with the they consent in case of person to put his membership in the European Union for the bacon sent to and remember who did during the refugee and migrant crisis with a consent in Germany's case to the kind of fiscal redistribution effectively the microphone once and I think what we can see it is that they Democratic politics of trying to wear these could send issue is very difficult in some sense the fact that the Germans have been unable to form of government after 5 weeks of negotiation after the last election is symptomatic of about that but its strategic question don't get why I'm Schultz I think he's kind of like say I can't we must engage with a strategic question what kind of it European Union we can have in this predicament and then some cent sign the domestic consent question
00:34:55well we should not worry about that at all but everything that we know about what has happened in European politics over the last few years says you can send question isn't isn't going to go away the Germans book what to construct the government to which they will be sufficient consent in terms of the policy commitments that guy will not cover tuition agreement and difficult to see where that's coming from you just spend time in Germany I have the Germans feel about not having a government because that's the other thing that's going on here which is essentially at some point someone's going to have to pull back up when did not come she doesn't seem like to meet at Jamie's going to place the comply to go and let dogs in Denver CO to ungoverned they like yeah I was quite straw coming so long time since I've been to Germany and I was quite struck a nerve the people at least that I was talking to in Hamburg at the fact they didn't have a government on the fear that I'm in the minority government that they seem to happen. It's just that you said before political stability is being part of German culture in and there is a
00:35:55democracy in some sense that's that's part of that and that the idea of having another election is not something that seem to be particularly appealing but at the same time we can see that given the position that Schultz is articulated given the difficulties he's gone with the party membership of the SPD it's not easy to see how I ground cover another grand Coalition is is coming about and then how did these things go together if we look at it as a kind of a game of up and down
00:36:27mrs. Met has gone up a few places he knows by most insurances going sideways Angela Merkel the great dominant figure of European politics looks we could buy the week that may be different in January macro is in a better position than he has been any point I would say since he won his election and the master at least be a possibility that while these moves up and down the gang on there's a steady rise of as hell and just laid out the microphone position on 2018 could be his ear I look at the other Chris Chris Picton because I know you're skeptical of the European level he has been lucky I think that you should have situation seem to been one-hand operation able to after the elections the failure of that but those Coalition tools then open up the possibility of this Grand Coalition shows his speech was in some ways I suppose music to my clients is
00:37:27so it's not level yes but I think the program of European strategy vs. domestic politics and domestic legitimacy questions is not unique to German as having quite right beside this is a pan European problem in the two are always tied together now I think in the past they were quite separate that today there altogether I was just in that microbes Advantage he's the one European position of the moment he looks like he commit the two sides I know it's a short time but he's posing okay at the moment he's getting his reform some of his quite by Frenchtown is radical labor reforms through almost by diktat because there wasn't really a functioning opposition in France
00:38:06is he not the one closest new looks like he might be marrying some of these why the questions with some democratic can send I think so as long as he's able to hold it together and I think the structural changes in French politics we have this evisceration of two different sized the Christ of the huge Center ground which he come ons the complaints about the authoritarian aspects of that I've become mean and very frequent and other people are quite concerned about it how is going to play out people don't know but I think that's going to be his greatest challenge I think we'll be to carry things full wood and he also has this which I think is partly inevitable really is that he has this stocking for a Terry and Toad in the way that he delivers his his views and it comes poppy from the fact that he just straddles this huge Center grounds and is already facing challenges in the way that would force him to be much more defensive and what more cultures in his pronouncements I didn't want that doesn't play across very well so I think 2018 will be on the one
00:39:06maybe some of your strategic successes for my calendar European level but I think you'll be a real testing year for how French politics works when you have some of the traditional positions taken away without anything in its place and this big inside leave egg send to ground movement that even some of macarons supporters who were the soda fountain the citizens the bottom up to the people the ones at the strip local level are beginning to complain enough feeling as if this whole thing is lost touch with what it was really meant to be about an hour I think is going to is going to be a big pot of 2018 consent side in the party doesn't have to worry about essentially any elections until 2022 election Advantage is that every time he tries to engage with Jim and politics when she tried to do during the last weeks of the campaign swell when he was trying to go to suggest what Kardashians would be best for friends essentially an intensive
00:40:06reporting it when I say about his relationship with the chokes on the phone call probably went on between Macon and shows it makes it more difficult to get what he wants to do in politics about his weakness looking heads 2018 and we going to do quite a lot more of that and then in 2018 will talk about what actually happens but next week we're going to look back on this year some of the Highlight some of our memorable moments some of the limits which we specialize in like oh I didn't see that coming duties to listen to it that TP podcast on the school my name is David runciman and weeping talking politics
00:40:51and I don't think it's an accident but we had David saying one thing on Sunday and then we will I don't think it's an accident we had David saying one thing on Saturday and then we'll come back on Sunday oh no it was Sunday or Monday which I like the scorching Squid Ink okay

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