TRANSCRIPT 🔗
00:00:09
Speaker 1: Hello and welcome to another episode of Snakes Territory, part of the Foul Territory Network. Be sure to like this video, subscribe to our YouTube channel, maybe leave us a five-star review wherever you get your podcasts. I am Jesse Friedman alongside Jack Summers. And Jack, it is a fun week here in the baseball world. We will not have the winter meetings in 2026 because of the impending lockout, but we do still have the GM meetings this And they are now underway in Las Vegas. It should be an interesting few days here in the baseball world.
00:00:43
Speaker 2: Yeah, we're really looking forward to maybe getting some movement or good indications of what that movement is going to be. We have some reporting coming out of the GM meeting. So let's get to it, Jess.
00:00:56
Speaker 1: So our good friend Nick Pecoro from the Arizona Republic is out there in Vegas talking with Mike Hazen. Of course, all of the baseball execs are available around the league. And we have a quote here from Nick's story. It just came out a little while before we recorded this on Tuesday night. And here's what Mike Hazen said when it came to the possibility of a Cattell Marte trade.
00:01:21
Speaker 3: Of course, that continues to be the big storyline.
00:01:24
Speaker 1: Hazen said, I think we would have some pitching focus in everything we're doing in trades. Yes, however that looks. Young starters, optionable starters, depth starters, any trades, I would be looking to add that. Not at the expense of the value of the deal necessarily, but it will still be a priority. And just to get things started here, Jack, this is kind of the big first takeaway from Mike Hazen at the GM meetings. A Cattell Marte trade is very possible and pitching appears to be the main target in return.
00:01:56
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's been fairly evident that, you know, Cattell is likely to be traded. They'll give the old, you know, lip service to we're listening and yada, yada. But the fact is, is that they're looking to make a deal. They're looking to trade Cattell Marte. They're looking to get, uh, pitching in return. Um, it's important to note that right now in the context of what's going on in major league baseball, um, it's more likely that we're going to see some trades here than we are going to see signings. Um, There's some reporting coming out. I think John Heyman of the New York Post, you know, he tweeted out today and wrote an article. Some agents are concerned, even upset teams aren't making any good offers before the December 1 lockout. And one club exec explains it makes no sense to barrel ahead without knowing the new rules, says an agent. It's ugly. You know, a little further context on that. what they're talking about in that New York Post article is that basically like one-year deals that clubs can exit if no games are played. That's what they're trying to look at. Or if it's only a one-year deal and it's a partial season, et cetera. So there may be some more work to be done there on the free agent side. But when we piece everything together and we look at this environment, And at the same time, we look back at Ken telling us that they're cutting payroll. It does make a lot of sense that the D-backs are really focused on the trade market more than the free agent market, which is not fresh news, but it really puts a finer point on all of that.
00:03:46
Speaker 1: I think in my head, as I've envisioned a potential Cattell Marte trade, I have always seen pitching as a at least likely part of that.
00:03:56
Speaker 3: Certainly there are different iterations.
00:03:58
Speaker 1: Maybe there's a world where the D-backs could trade Cattell Marte and get the left-handed bat that they certainly need. But in my head, trading Cattell was always likely to lead to some sort of starting pitching improvement. And we, of course, in our last episode, we talked about several pitchers who maybe could fit the bill. Go back and check it out. If you didn't see that one, we talked about all of these guys that are up on the screen. Jake Bennett of the Red Sox, Troy Melton of the Tigers, Jackson Jobe, Cater Montero as well. Also of the Tigers, Spencer Miles of the Blue Jays. There were a few other names we mentioned there too. But yeah, I mean, I guess in some ways, Jack, this kind of confirms our suspicions that pitching was maybe going to be part of the equation there. And I think that It's going to be tough to get a pitcher that feels like adequate value for Cattell. As we've been saying for a while, you shouldn't expect to get a Peyton Tolley type arm, which maybe would have been possible a year ago. It's not going to be possible now, but there are still some starting pitchers out there who could provide value, especially for a Diamondbacks team that doesn't have a whole lot of starting pitching depth. There are technically five starters on the depth chart that you maybe feel okay about, but the moment one of those guys goes down, the depth is really not there. This team could use other arms as part of that staff.
00:05:29
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, Mike talked about this as well in his comments to Nick. He even had an interesting quote about what it's like to go from seven starters to three starters. You know, seven starters you're starting with in spring training, and you end up with three. Um, you know, and he doesn't want to go back there again. So, I mean, adding the pitching depth is certainly, um, uh, I guess the focus at this point in time. Um, and you know, the title of our show today is shifting priorities and that's because when they started off the off season, you know, Mike highlighted getting a left-handed first base slash DH bat was his, uh, you know, number one priority. And, oh yes, of course we always want pitching. Um, That's very much what he told us, you know, in October as the offseason got underway. Now, whether or not the context of the Heyman quote there where, you know, looks like free agent
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deals are not going to be plentiful, the fact that the DBAX are reducing payroll, another factor, you know, it doesn't really look like the DBAX are going to be easily using the free agent market to fill these holes. Again, like you said, Jess, it makes sense. If you're trading Cattell Marte, he's your biggest asset, then you're going to have to go ahead and do that for pitching. You're not really likely to do that for a hitter.
00:06:53
Speaker 1: As I mentioned earlier, there are several pitchers we talked about in our last show. We have one other one that we're going to get to here after the break. Before we do that, I do want to hit on This quote, which definitely stood out to me, this is from another Nick Pecoro story that came out earlier today. Nick has been talking with rival evaluators around the league about what a Cattell Marte trade could look like, and this quote was noteworthy. I would be 100% shocked an evaluator with an NL club said on Monday, November 9th, if they don't trade him this offseason, talking about Cattell Marte. So, I know there are people in our comments every time we talk about a Cattell trade who are like, you guys are crazy. Cattell has all the power here. He's not going to waive his no trade clause. And certainly there are some complicating factors here, but there's no getting around the fact around the industry that this has become kind of an expectation. I think I personally am fully in the camp of Cattell Marte trade is going to be traded eventually this offseason. It's just a matter of working out the details and trying to salvage some value in what is almost certainly going to be an underwhelming return for the Diamondbacks, considering everything that Cattell has meant to them over the years.
00:08:14
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, it's important to point out that the rest of Nick's article kind of went into all the reasons why it will be difficult to trade Cattell or to get any kind of decent value if they do. 10-5 rights, you know, 33-year-old player coming off a down season, et cetera, et cetera. So, I mean, you know, on top of all of the off-field baggage and the concerns about whether or not he's a player that can be counted on. Look, you know, people can view that situation any way they want, but the only people's opinions that really matter, and it's certainly not ours, are the GMs out there making these decisions. And, you know, the word around the industry, you know, not just from a couple of local people, the word around the industry is that his business Tell Marte's brand is extremely damaged and that's cut into his value. And it's going to make it hard for Mike to pull this off. Difficult. Yes.
00:09:13
Speaker 3: Impossible. Probably not.
00:09:15
Speaker 1: But it might not necessarily be an awesome trade package that the Diamondbacks get in return. I mentioned earlier, there's one other starting pitcher that one of our good friends recently brought up as a potential target for the Diamondbacks today. So we're going to dive into that name. Then we'll get to some other notes from Nick's story out at the GM meetings later in the show.
00:09:37
Speaker 3: So don't go anywhere. We'll be back on snakes territory right after this.
00:09:43
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00:09:47
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00:09:49
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00:10:09
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00:10:43
Speaker 1: We are back here on Snake's territory. Shout out to all of you joining us on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, YouTube, all the different places. Leave us a comment. We always enjoy hearing from you. If you're joining us on YouTube, it really helps us out. If you would drop a like on this video. It does wonders with the YouTube algorithm gods that we are always beholden to around here. And if you are joining us on an audio-only platform, it also really helps us out if you would leave us a five-star review over there. So thank you once again to all of you for being.
00:11:16
Speaker 3: Here with us. We really appreciate your time.
00:11:19
Speaker 1: Before we dive into this mysterious picture that we are going to talk about, I will just throw this up. on the screen one more time. This is from our last show where we were thinking about how much surplus value Cattell Marte is projected to have over the next five seasons. Of course, he is under control through 2030, and then there's a player option for $ 11 million in 2031, his age 37 season. You did the math here, Jack. It comes out to about $ 38 million of surplus value meaning that Cattell is worth $ 38 million more than what the Diamondbacks will pay him in that span. And if you factor in the deferrals, that number could go up to $ 50 or $ 55 million. And I guess, but is there anything you want to say there before we dive in here?
00:12:09
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, there's $ 35 million deferred. So the NPV, net present value, greatly increases. I mean, basically, it lowers the amount that... of his salary value by about 15 million. So
you, when you add that in, then his net surplus value is certainly over 50 million, exactly where that comes in. Hard to say, but so I just put, I estimated 50 to 55.
00:12:38
Speaker 1: Well, our good friend, Jeff Irving over at AZ Snake Pit, he wrote an article recently about some Cattell Marte mock trades and front and center in that article was New York Mets right-hander, Christian Scott. who is a pretty interesting name that we didn't talk about in our last show, and we thought we would give that a shot here. Christian Scott recently had Tommy John surgery. He missed the 2025 season entirely, had a pretty healthy 2026. He made 23 starts, 110 innings, wasn't pitching deep into games, did have a couple of IL stints that were not arm injury related, but the numbers were compelling. He had a 3.85 ERA. He had a 28.3% strikeout rate, a 9.9% walk rate. Christian Scott is 27 years old. He's ARB eligible in 2028. So you're looking at a league minimum player for 2027. And then there's four years of club control altogether going through the 2030 season. So on the surface here, Jack, there's a whole lot to like about Christian Scott of the New York Mets.
00:13:46
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, there's no doubt about it. It's a stuffed guy, you know, very high strikeout rate. He's got the mid to high 90s, you know, four seamer. He's got a pretty dang good sweeper and cutter both. I don't know if there's sometimes some cross pollination there and how they classify those pitches, but they both have great numbers. So, you know, this is a guy I think, Jesse, you called him a breakout candidate. And I'm sure that's where Jeff is leading, too. But flip side is he's going to be 28 years old. He's got 157 career innings, 110 of them came last year. So, you know, this is a roll the dice type of situation. I mean, if he's a late bloomer and can stay healthy, you know, he really could be quite the dynamic ad. On the flip side, there's a pretty high risk here of re-injury because once you get the You know, he had hip and knee injuries, and sometimes you get cascade injuries that affect your delivery. And then, you know, your shoulder and elbow go again. And, you know, guys that have had Tommy John once can often have them twice. So, you know, hard to imagine out of his four years of control that you're going to get four years healthy and over 100 starts out of him. So kind of, you know, donned if you do, donned if you don't type situation. But certainly this is an intriguing roll of the dice. and a lot of potential depending on how teams view his health prospect.
00:15:17
Speaker 1: What really stands out to me about Scott is his stuff ticked up after returning from Tommy John, which is obviously not the norm. His stuff plus in 2024 when he made his big league debut was 100, so right at league average. But in 2026, it was 107, which for a starting pitcher is pretty dang good. Four Seamer was up at 104. The splitter was 112, the slider 120, a curveball 123. Again, maybe some of those pitches are blending together a little bit. There might be some stat cast confusion behind the scenes, but those are really impressive numbers. I mean, there are not very many starting pitchers who have the kind of stuff that Christian Scott showed in 2026. And that's why for me, Jack, I have my doubts about this. I think if I'm the New York Mets, I'm not willing to part with an asset like Christian Scott in order to bring in, frankly, a distressed asset from the Diamondbacks in Cattell Marte. But then again, we look at the surplus value charts that you are very good at putting together here, Jack. And I guess on paper, the value is pretty reasonable here.
00:16:27
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I have two versions of the chart here. based on certain parameters. I mean, essentially Christian Scott is projected by Steamer to have 2.3 war in 2027. So I just used that as a starting point and reduced him 0.5 war per year through 2030 and came up with six, just roughly 6.2 war over four years using $ 11 million per war for per one war. it works out to a net surplus value of $ 49. 2 million. Okay, so that puts you in that similar range of Cattell, where once you factor in the deferrals, he's also worth about $ 50 million. Now, the downside on Scott is if he doesn't post up enough to get to all of his stuff. And so I made a second table where I reduced the starting point from 2.3 to 1.8 war. So that 0.5 war reduction went across the board and it comes out of 4.2 war. That gives him a net surplus value of 27 million, which would be under what Cattell's value should be. So, you know, that's a pretty wide, I mean, it's over a $ 20 million gap there. And that's the best I can do, unfortunately, between 49 and 27 million in value because Cattell it's an unknown. I have no idea how much Christian Scott's going to be able to post up. Now, I guess I could have done a third where he's a breakout candidate and he makes 110 starts over four years. And, you know, he's a four war pitcher and you hit a massive home run because he's got fabulous stuff, but I'm not willing to make that kind of bet.
00:18:22
Speaker 1: I think if I'm the New York Mets, I see four years of control of, Again, if I'm them, I would view Christian Scott as a breakout candidate. I mean, this is a guy who was averaging 94 in 2024. Now his fastball is averaging 95 and a half. As we mentioned, the other stuff seemed to tick up as well. The list of starting pitchers who can post a strikeout rate in the high 20s is a very short list. There are not a lot of starting pitchers who have this kind of stuff. And yeah, if I'm if I'm the New York Mets, sure, a projection system might say that this is roughly equal value. But I just think there's such a premium around the league on acquiring controllable starting pitching. It just feels like you always have to give up more on paper than what you should. And I don't think Cattell Marte is is going to going to be that guy, not with Marte coming off a down
season and Christian Scott coming off a season. where he looks like a player who maybe is on the brink of really being a darn good starting pitcher for the next four years.
00:19:34
Speaker 2: A lot of times, because we have no other way to do it other than start with the projections and make a table and all of that, but when you think about how a lot of times these things work out, the more likelihood is at some point in that four seasons he has one really good healthy season where he makes 30 starts gives him 170 innings and he's a four war pitcher or something like that and makes all the value basically in that one season and you hope or most of the value and you hope that that happened to coincide with when the rest of the team was having a good year. I mean, that's what strong playoff teams and runs are made out of, right? Guys having career years at the right time where you've got multiple guys doing it, or you got most of your core roster healthy and you get one or two career years out of guys that then supplement that. That's what those, that happens. That's how that happens in real life, you know, beyond the spreadsheet, so to speak. So I think that's kind of, especially with a guy like this with, without a track record of innings, I think that's more likely what you're going to see is, you know, there's certainly an upside in there. If he can stay healthy, at least for one season or a season and a half and give you some really phenomenal production. And if it comes at the right time in the right place, it can really be super valuable. On the other hand, you know, if the Mets have to wait two years to see it and, you know, in 2028, they're floundering and, you know, there are 500 team at best or, or worse and, And he has a three or four-war season. It doesn't really mean anything at that point. But that's for everybody.
00:21:13
Speaker 1: The other part of this conversation, real quick, is just kind of seeing the Mets' side of things and sort of what their needs are as a team. They do have a pretty big hole at second base. Marcus Simeon is not the player he once was. He is not giving them or did not give them much offensively in 2026. So there's a clear need at second base for the Mets. at the same time, there's also kind of a clear need in the starting rotation. Uh, they have Nolan McClain, they have, uh, Christian Scott, they have, uh, Sean Mania, I, I believe is still under control for another season there. Uh, Zach Thornton is another option. Uh, roster resource has Kodai Senga on their, uh, depth chart for starting pitchers. I, I don't think they're going to be using him in that role moving forward. So, uh, Yeah, this is a team that also needs starting pitching. And that's where I think there might be willing to trade some aspects of their roster in order. I mean, they're going to have to in order to get where they want to go. I'm not sure if starting pitching is an area they can they can really afford to trade from right now.
00:22:21
Speaker 2: Scooble or bust for the Mets?
00:22:25
Speaker 3: It might be.
00:22:26
Speaker 1: I know Ken Rosenthal was on their territory. I was listening to that yesterday. He was talking about how the Mets in the past have not wanted to go to many years when it came to starting pitchers. And they're probably going to have to do that to get Scooble.
00:22:42
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, I just kind of threw that out there in jest. Full disclosure, we had this discussion during show prep, you know, and I brought up Scooble and he reminded me of what Ken Rosenthal had said. So, I just wanted to get that out there. You know, certainly their hat is in the ring for this free agent. And, you know, that would bolster their rotation. But even if they got Scoble, they probably still would like to hold on to Scott.
00:23:08
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, if you have Scoble, it's like, OK, great. It's Scoble, McLean, Minaya. But if you trade Christian Scott, like I still I still see probably two gaps, two open spots in their starting rotation. So the Mets have a lot to figure out all this to say. And maybe they would be willing to do something like this in order to acquire a player like Cattell Marte. I do think Cattell makes a lot of sense for them. But yeah, I mean, the Mets are spending a lot of money and they're not a good team. So no matter what way you look at this roster, they're in a bit of a bind over there.
00:23:43
Speaker 2: Well, I think for pure entertainment value, come on, Cattell, Lindoro, Soto, that would be fun.
00:23:49
Speaker 3: That's true.
00:23:50
Speaker 1: There's a lot of charisma on one baseball team that would be fun to watch. Of course, Cattell Marte is not the only trade asset that Diamondbacks have. If they want to go get Christian Scott or they want to go get some starting pitcher around the league, it is not only Cattell Marte that they have to offer. But frankly, they don't have that many other assets. And you and I were thinking behind the scenes about like, What else do the Diamondbacks have to trade if they want to acquire a starting pitcher who has real value or some other player that has real value? And the two names that we came back to were Ryan Waldschmidt and Jordan Lawler. Those are the two other valuable assets they have that we could actually see them trading. Obviously, there's Gabby Moreno and Corbin Carroll and Geraldo Perdomo.
00:24:37
Speaker 3: They have other.
00:24:38
Speaker 1: Valuable assets, but those guys aren't going anywhere anytime soon. So I guess we'll start with Ryan Waldschmidt here, Jack. In terms of looking at the surplus value calculations and how much value he has to a team over the life of his contract, theoretically, he's under control for six more seasons. And you have a couple different ways of looking at this here. On the low end, we have $ 30 million in surplus value. On the high end, we have $ 55. 5 million of surplus value. which is actually pretty similar to the numbers we just
looked at with Christian Scott.
00:25:18
Speaker 2: Yeah, which is pretty interesting. Now, a couple of things about this chart I want to highlight. Obviously, 30 to 55, again, that's a big range, right? That's, you know, $ 25, $ 26 million range. Well, why do we have that? So on the table on the left, I'm showing him as essentially being a one-war player. His Fangraph's depth chart projection shows for 2027 is one war. And this is really pretty much like a very mediocre projection going forward. In other words, saying Ryan Waldschmidt continues to be a short side platooner and utility outfielder and isn't an everyday league average or above player. And so I have him in there only producing six war over six years, which will certainly be a disappointing outcome for most D-backs fans, but this is the low end of it. The other thing is the dollar per war value for a player like this, who's projected around one war is lower than everyday regulars and league average and above players are worth two war or more. So I have 8.5 million per war. And so that's how the net value there adds up to 30 million on the table to the right. I show him, still having the one more in 27, but then improving up to a 1.5 war player. And that's still a little below the two war threshold, but increasing his war value dollar per war value to 9 million. And then brings his total war production at 1.5 times five seasons, plus the one at 8.5. So, sorry, I got lost in the numbers here, guys, bottom line, if he's a little bit better than the first table and the war value is a little bit higher, that's how we have a spread to 55 million. So that's kind of the range that you're looking at in Ryan Waldschmidt's likely trade value. Shouldn't be below 30, probably not over 55.
00:27:28
Speaker 1: And all that to say, I think, at least to me, this illustrates that Ryan Waldschmidt is a more valuable trade asset than I might've realized. Like, even if you're not projecting Walt Schmidt to be that everyday regular who has a 120 OPS plus and is playing above average center field defense. Like I do think that's a possible outcome, but even if he's not that guy, the baseline projection for him is still to be a really valuable player just because he's, he's not going to be making much money here for the, for the next couple of seasons, especially. And I guess switching over to Jordan Lawler, he's in kind of a similar position here where, You don't have to get Jordan Lawler to four or five war in order for him to still be a really valuable asset. Looking at your low end surplus value and high end numbers here, we have Lawler at $ 43. 75 million on the low end and $ 65. 5 million on the high end. Certainly, it would be a bold move for the D-backs to trade him. He did show a lot of promise in 2026, but You got to give something to get something. And if the Diamondbacks want a good starting pitcher, like a good young starting pitcher who could be a fixture in this rotation for a while, Jordan Lawler is the type of asset you might have to give up there.
00:28:49
Speaker 2: Yeah. In this case, I have Lawler. He's projected for 2027 for 1.5 war. And I just hold that number through 2031. His five years of control comes out to seven and a half war. And at 8.5 million per war, that's how we got to 43.75, 44 million. So that low end is about $ 14 million higher than Waldschmidt's, which is a notable difference, right? And then on the upper end, I have him still at 1.5 war for 2027. And then the remaining four years, I have him as a two war player. And that comes out to 9.5 war total. And that's how you get to 65.5 or 66 million upper band. So I think it's safe to say that on paper, Lawler is. probably worth at least $ 10 to $ 15 million more than Waldschmidt. That also seems to ring true. Would you say that, Jesse?
00:29:50
Speaker 1: Yeah, as I'm having a coughing fit over here. Yes, I would agree with that. I think that Lawler has... especially with what he did in 2026. I mean, he kind of, he kind of was able to bring all everything together and he was especially against left-handed pitching.
00:30:06
Speaker 3: He was a genuine asset for this team.
00:30:10
Speaker 2: So that begs the question then, um, would you trade Jordan Lawler for Christian Scott straight up one for one?
00:30:20
Speaker 1: Darn Jack, I was going to ask you this question. I was going to put you on the spot with this one. Um, Would I trade Jordan Lawler for Christian Scott one for one?
00:30:29
Speaker 3: That's a really good question.
00:30:32
Speaker 1: I think it's a really hard decision for me because I think it is very close. I would lean toward not doing that because even though, as I've said, I do think Christian Scott is very intriguing. I also think that Jordan Lawler could be like a four-war guy. I think he could be that level of... of contributor to your offense and he plays a pretty good center field. Uh, so out of that, because of that, I think I would lean toward no here, but I, I, I could go either way.
00:31:07
Speaker 3: I think it's a totally legitimate question.
00:31:11
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, I'm, I'm on the fence with Lawler. I'm not leaning. No, I'm very much on the fence. I'm a definitely yes. If it's Walsh.
00:31:20
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would agree with that. And I think that, I think the Mets would, with no disrespect to Ryan Waldschmidt, but I don't think the Mets would consider that.
00:31:28
Speaker 2: Perhaps. I mean, you know, it is notable, again, that last year's trade deadline, you know, they said that every team was asking for Waldschmidt. But, of course, that was talking mostly about rentals, not guys with young pitchers with four years of control. So there's that. I probably do Lawler. And my biggest concern with Lawler has been that whether or not he's going to ultimately keep his strikeout rate down enough and put OBPs high enough to really be an above average player. I don't have much doubt between his base running, his defense,
and he does have some pop and ability to hit for some power that he could be a two-war player. I don't really doubt that. But to get to four-war, he's got to significantly reduce his strikeout rate, significantly improve his OBP projection. And I have doubts there. So I probably, you know, I'm not sure if I would do this for Christian Scott, not because I'm worried about Lawler being a four war player. I'm on the other side of it where I'm more worried about how many innings I'm going to get out of Christian Scott.
00:32:40
Speaker 1: And the Mets might be worried about how many plate appearances they're going to get out of Jordan Lawler. His injury track record is not exactly great. I think with Lawler, what What makes me especially hesitant is just the amount of improvement that we've seen in what is still a very small major league sample size. I mean, he looked, frankly, pretty lost at the plate in 2023. He looked pretty lost the plate in 2025. And that was like 100 major league plate appearances. And then it didn't take long in 26 before it was like, wow, this this looks like a completely different hitter at the plate. And I know pretty much all the damage is still happening against lefties. There's still some, some platoon risk there for sure. But yeah, it's, I mean, it's fascinating. I think it would be, I mean, wouldn't that be a classic Mike Hazen trade? I guess it's been a few years since we've seen it, but that sort of challenge deal, right? The, the Chisholm for gallon, the, the VAR show for Moreno, right? Like that's the Mike Hazen trade, Jordan Lawler for Christian Scott.
00:33:47
Speaker 2: That would be.
00:33:48
Speaker 1: Really intriguing just as a baseball fan in general. And I think, I mean, I haven't thought about like, does Jordan Lawler make sense for the Mets? I don't, I don't know exactly what their outfield situation is. Obviously they're, they're pretty covered with, with Juan Soto and left field. Carson Bench is a really, really good player. So, but I, I guess center field is sort of a question mark for them. At least it seems like there's some opportunity there.
00:34:14
Speaker 3: So, It's fascinating, Jack.
00:34:17
Speaker 1: I'm curious what people in the chat have to say about this one.
00:34:21
Speaker 2: Also, they could always transition Lawler back to the infield.
00:34:25
Speaker 3: That's true.
00:34:27
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, he's probably not taking shortstop from Francisco Lindor, but I guess he could play second base for them wherever Brett Beatty isn't playing, something like that.
00:34:39
Speaker 3: Correct.
00:34:40
Speaker 2: I guess he could also play second base for the Diamondbacks, but that's another question altogether.
00:34:45
Speaker 3: That is a whole other question.
00:34:46
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't think the Diamondbacks are probably moving Jordan Lawler back to the infield anytime soon. But hey, speaking of infield position questions, there's also a piece of Nick's story from the Arizona Republic that talks about Nolan Arenado. We did touch on this in a recent show. There's been reporting on this from both Gambo and Steve Gilbert already. But Hazen kind of took it one step further with Nolan Arenado moving to first base, at least in some capacity. Hazen said, I think there's a version in which he plays first base primarily. I think there's a version in which he plays some of both first and third. He's told us he'll do whatever we ask. So up to this point, it's sure there might be an occasional game over at first base. Maybe it's a situation where the D-backs bring in a platoon partner. and Nolan is playing first against lefties and then is over at third against righties. But this sounds like maybe Nolan is the plan A for the Diamondbacks at first base, and they look for another option at third.
00:35:57
Speaker 2: Yeah, Nick even, you know, I mean, he's saying in his article that they could look at a left-handed option at third base. You know, and there's lots of opportunities there to kind of maybe highlight some different players. Probably a good topic for our next show, to dive into all the potential options. If they were going to look for a left-hand hitting or a switch hitting third baseman, whether it be via free agency or trade, who might be good fits. So that's what we're going to look at in our next show, kind of do a deeper dive on that. But again, like Jesse just said, the fact that they're looking at this as a potential full-time move, not just a part-time move, very interesting development there. one that needs a good deal of attention, and we're going to get to that.
00:36:44
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it definitely seems like this is not just Arenado offering to play first base, but the physical toll that third base takes on him seems to be part of the conversation. Hazen also said, I think it's taking a toll on him physically a little bit. We're trying to be mindful of that.
00:37:05
Speaker 2: So.
00:37:06
Speaker 1: And Hazen also talked about how playing first base is something Arenado wants to do. So this isn't just like, I'm willing, put me wherever you want. This is like, I would actually prefer maybe to play over first base at least some of the time. So that's a fascinating situation. I think if you told me a few months ago that Arenado was going to be the Diamondbacks first baseman in 2027, I probably would have given you a strange look. It's like, this is Nolan Harnado. This guy has won, uh, a whole bunch of gold gloves. Third base is like what he does, but, uh, you know, if he contributes offensively, like he did in 2026, then that's a valuable player at really any position.
00:37:51
Speaker 5: Yeah.
00:37:52
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, honestly, from first base, I'd like to see a little bit more than is projected. I think one or two WRC plus.
00:37:59
Speaker 3: You'd like to see more than the projection for sure.
00:38:01
Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah. You know, um, and, uh, You know, he just had a 30-homer
season, and, you know, it's hard to imagine him being any better than that. And so, you know, whether or not he can repeat that, maybe keeping his legs fresher, you know, over at first base would help him do that. So some interesting questions there. You know, did we just get the proverbial dead cat bounce and, you know, that was it? Or is he going to be able to do it again? You know, I got burned pretty bad by questioning Nolan Arenado last year. So I'm not going to step into that trap, but you know, it's reasonable to question whether or not they're going to be, you know, you really want to see at least a one 10 or more WRC plus out of your first base position. And that's what you really need to be productive at that position.
00:38:52
Speaker 1: As you said earlier, we're, we're going to dive into some specific names in our, in our next episode, probably looking at if the D backs did want a left-handed hitting third baseman, what are the options out there? But, I think for now, I feel confident saying like, in general, if a player can play first or third, you'd rather them play third as long as they can play decent defense there.
00:39:13
Speaker 3: And we know that Nolan can.
00:39:15
Speaker 1: So I'm not sure there's really any part of this where I feel like it's a plus for the Diamondbacks, other than maybe just the physical toll aspect of this, of like maybe Nolan kind of needs to move over to first base in order to stay fresh physically. over the course of a season. So we'll talk more about third base options, though, in our next show. For right now, I do want to circle back to the Cattell discussion, the idea of a Cattell Marte trade. And rather than thinking about what the D-backs could get in return, I let's maybe think about who's playing second base. If they do trade Cattell Marte for a pitcher, is Ildemar Vargas coming back and he's your everyday second baseman? What is this going to look like? And Mike Hazen addressed part of this question in his conversation with Nick Pecoro. Of course, the question of Demetrio Crescentis came up. Is he going to be the guy at second base if the Diamondbacks move on from Cattell? And Hazen said this, I don't think we'll be clearing a spot for him necessarily. I think he's got to come up and earn it. He's done a great job so far. We think very highly of him. He's got a bright future ahead of him. He's got to take those next steps and push people out of the way. I'm hopeful that over the next 365 days, he'll have that opportunity to do that. So suffice it to say, Jack, this is not like Cattell Marte is out and Demetrio Crescentis is in. It is not that simple.
00:40:47
Speaker 2: He's not ready, and the team is well aware of that, and Mike's pretty much stating it. He's a year away. He's got a lot of work to do left on defense. His defense has not been average. It's been below average throughout most of his minor league career. A big goal for him was to improve that defense, make all the plays he's supposed to make, and it's been spotty. He's made four errors in 13 games. You know, he's made a couple of decent looking plays, but he's also made some pretty rough looking plays. At the same time, you know, his batting line is actually in the Arizona Fall League, limited sample, but it's not all that great. It's below average when you factor in that his home games at Salt River Fields are played with the outfielders pinned to the foul lines and shallow center field. So he's got seven doubles and one triple and no homers. and at least several of those extra base hits or balls that would have either just been singles or outs in the gap. But because the runner, the outfielders are forced to play shallow at salt river field while they experiment with the fielding positioning, it's inflated to numbers. And if anybody has any doubt about that, you can go to the Arizona fall league team stats pages. The rafters are hitting for a nine 16 OPS and have 17 triples at salt river fields. Um, and then, uh, When they're away, they're hitting for like a 730-something OPS and have five triples. So that's all you need to know is that that positioning is drastically inflating extra base hits at Salt River Field. And that's certainly something to look at because, look, Crisantes, if he's a guy that's ready to come up and play in the major leagues now, he should be playing fairly clean defense and he should be an above-average hitter in the Arizona Fall League. which isn't featuring a lot of great pitching, to be honest. So instead, he's a below average hitter in the Arizona Fall League. He's making a lot of errors. He struggled in AAA except for the last two weeks of the season. He's not ready. I've seen a lot of people on social media, you know, slide Chrysantis in, you know, because he's ranked number one prospect, but he's not ready. Trust me, folks.
00:43:07
Speaker 1: And I think to be fair to Chrysantis, like, I think it's okay that he isn't ready at this point. I think it's, it's an unreasonable expectation to think that he should be. I mean, this guy's 22 years old. He was drafted out of, out of high school back in 2022 in the seventh round. Like the fact that he's risen up prospect rankings, the way that he has, that he made it to triple a at age, I think it was 21 at the time. Like that in and of itself is a really impressive accomplishment. So I don't think we're saying like this, like Crescentis is not a success story for the organization considering where he came from, but that, you know, being ready to take Cattell Marte's spot at second base, those are like, those.
00:43:51
Speaker 3: Are two very different things.
00:43:52
Speaker 1: And anyone who was thinking this is going to be an easy transition if you trade Cattell, like, yeah, Crescentis certainly needs more time. And there's no guarantee that he ever is a Cattell Marte. I mean, that's a really, really high bar to clear. I think if you just got like even a league average regular out of a
seventh round pick like that in and of itself would be a massive win. So, yeah, there's I mean, Crescentis has accomplished a lot in his young career. But if the Diamondbacks do trade Cattell, Jack, this is going to be a whole other question for them to figure out. Based on what we're hearing from Mike Hazen, it doesn't sound like his replacement is coming back in the trade. It sounds like pitching is the focus in the trade. And you've got to find some way to replace his production at second base. There are some guys out there. We've talked about like a Cody Clemens from the Minnesota Twins, for example, who can play a few different positions, can play second base. You know, could you try to backfill by trading for someone like him? There are options out there where you can get some production at a second. But internally, the D-backs don't have any clear candidates for that spot.
00:45:02
Speaker 2: Yeah. And I want to echo what Jesse just said. You know, I'm not saying Crescentis is a bust. Don't put words in my mouth. I'm saying he's not ready. And Mike Hazen said he's not ready. The general manager just told you over the next 365 days, he's going to have to force his way in there. He's not just handing over second base to Crescentis. So that's what the GM told us. That's what my observations have been, that he's not ready. That's what the numbers tell us. So, you know, I just want to kind of put it out there that, you know, let's stop pushing for this young kid that's not ready to go take over at second base. It's not happening. Not yet.
00:45:42
Speaker 3: Yeah, right.
00:45:43
Speaker 2: Exactly.
00:45:44
Speaker 1: It's not a, it's not a, not never. It's just not, not on opening day. That would be an unreasonable expectation for him.
00:45:51
Speaker 3: But hey, it's.
00:45:53
Speaker 1: Fun to have real reporting, real words from general managers to be dissecting Shout out once again to our friend Nick Pecoro. We leaned on almost exclusively on his reporting for this episode. He does phenomenal work. He is absolutely worth the price of a subscription over at the Arizona Republic. So be sure to do that if you have not already. In the meantime, between now and our next episode, which should be coming here in the next couple of days, you can find us on social media. I am at JesseNFriedman on Twitter. Jack is at ShoeWizard59.
00:46:27
Speaker 3: Com.
00:46:29
Speaker 1: And our show is at Snakes Territory. And of course, you can find Jack's written work over at Arizona Diamondbacks on SI. Also, I want to give a shout out to at WickedBetter54 on Twitter, who tweeted us a picture of his Snakes Territory t-shirt, which unfortunately I don't have it here to show all of you. But our merch is pretty fantastic over at SnakesTerritoryShop.com. And we appreciate all of you donning our lovely Snakes Territory logo out in the universe. So shout out to at WickedBetter54. We really appreciate you. And shout out to all of you for being with us on this episode. We really appreciate your time. Jack, any final thoughts here as we say goodbye?
00:47:17
Speaker 2: WickedBetter54, he wore it better than I do. He looks good in it.
00:47:23
Speaker 1: It's a pretty nice logo. I said on Twitter selfishly, I think we might have the best logo in the Foul Territory Network.
00:47:31
Speaker 3: I'm just, it's pretty cool. I'm just throwing that out there.
00:47:34
Speaker 1: I am wearing my Snakes Territory t-shirt today, which I also should mention and show off. But thank you once again to all of you for being with us on this episode.
00:47:42
Speaker 3: We really appreciate your time.
00:47:44
Speaker 1: And we'll be back very, very soon with another edition of Snakes Territory.