ABOUT THIS EPISODE

Crucial life lessons from the end of hockey games, Idris Elba, and some Wall Street guys with a lot of time on their hands.
English
United States

TRANSCRIPT

00:00:06revisionist history is brought to you by ziprecruiter hiring is challenging but there's one place you can go where hiring is simple and smart that place is ziprecruiter where growing businesses connect to qualified candidates tried for free at ziprecruiter dot com slash bad well ziprecruiter the smartest way to
00:00:28hire one one one thing that the chapter one is about is the fact that if a lobster is defeated in a dominance battle you can give it essentially anti depressants and it will fight again there's a Canadian like me my H. almost exactly who teaches my favorite subject
00:00:53psychology at my alma mater the university of Toronto his name is Jordan Peterson if you want to understand the complex nervous system it's a good idea to understand a simple one first and then sort of elaborate upwards and it turns out that serotonin govern status emotional regulation and
00:01:14posturing lobsters just like it does in human beings and so that was just blew me away he got a very provocative self help book called twelve rules for life rule number one stand up straight with your shoulders back will never to treat yourself like someone you are responsible
00:01:33for helping rule number twelve had a cat when you encounter one on the street it is this book was a sensation and soon all kinds of other people were doing twelve rules like the economist Tyler Callan whose blood marginal revolution is the first thing I read every morning
00:01:51I particularly like kallins rule number seven learn how to learn from those who offend you every time you turn a corner twelve rules the columnists Megan McArdle rule number three always order one extradition at a restaurant an unfamiliar one you might like it which would be splendid you
00:02:12don't like it all you lost was a couple of Bucks the exercise of curiosity requires a risk a sacrifice a commitment of that also the cardinals will number twelve always make more dinner rolls than you think you can eat for some reason dinner rolls loom much larger in
00:02:34our imaginations than in our stomachs well Megan McArdle makes her own dinner rolls everybody's doing twelve rules wait I'm jealous my name is Malcolm Gladwell you listening to revisionist history my podcast about things overlooked and misunderstood this episode is about Malcolm Gladwell twelve rules for letting my guiding
00:03:03principles my wisdom distilled except thought about this for like a month and I realize I don't have to have rules I just don't I mean I have rules like the fact that I only drink five liquids ever water T. red wine espresso and milk and some combination but
00:03:25that's not a rule for living is just pointlessly provocative self denial the least attractive part of my personality if you want a cocktail you should have a cocktail I only have one rule pull the goalie what do you mean when you say you're obnoxious army more specific if
00:03:50I found something funny which is still disease I have I will say it even if it's get me in some trouble I never thought I was pretty cool but I was a class cut up my one rule for living came to me from the work of two people
00:04:07cliff fastness and Aaron brown both philosophers of a sort and friends this is Clifford asked miss is in his mid fifties bald go T. grew up middle class Jewish in Long Island I was in the honors classes and I was the cut up in the honors class enjoys
00:04:23a strange thing to be you don't think of those classes having but we had a I wasn't always me do we were not perfectly well if so obnoxious I was tolerable are but I found myself extremely funny now I should say that I didn't find cliff Estes obnoxious
00:04:41he's delightful company instead I suspect he is what psychologists call disagreeable short digression psychologists believe that human personality can be assessed a long five dimensions extroversion conscientious this eroticism openness to experience and finally agreeableness my sense of the fastest he's at the low end of that last straight
00:05:08number five he's low agreeable disagreeable which is not the same as obnoxious it's whether the quality of not being depended on or particularly interested in the approval of others when I went to interview cliff fastness in Manhattan I turned on my digital recorder and discovered that my memory
00:05:28flash card was full and after much flustered and fumbling I realized I had no idea how to delete any of the existing data from the flash card to make room for my interview with assets now the rational thing would have been for me to hand asked miss the
00:05:43digital recorder and ask him to figure it out because the fastness has an I. Q. I'm guessing two to three standard deviations higher than mine have solved the problem in about thirty seconds but I didn't hand in the recorder because I was embarrassed because I worried that he
00:06:00would think I was pathetic and that concern was more important to me than actually fixing my tape recorder issues I am agreeable I am interested in the approval of others I am the opposite of cliff asked this so I ended up running down forty second street to crosstown
00:06:17blocks to staples to get another flash card to replace the one I was too embarrassed to ask for help figuring out here you may include this is this is %HESITATION that this is not a secret I don't work as hard as people think I do fall off a
00:06:34lot click fastness likes puzzles games problems that engage the imagination I have been caught several times playing internet chess in my office some people when I say caught and the senior guide the firm I don't I don't I don't quit over this the people come in and I'm
00:06:51like yeah I got to beat this guy hold on for or lose I'm not a great chess player he doesn't play conventional chess he plays one minute chess known as bullet chess if you're curious this is what a typical bullet match sounds like it's like Einstein playing ping
00:07:13pong by the way when asked this says I am the senior guide the firm he's referring to the fact that he has a company called AQ our capital applied qualitative research I hedge fund with two hundred and twenty five billion dollars under management which brings me to philosopher
00:07:33number two the second architect of the pull the goalie principle cliff essences friend Aaron brown if we were to create a disagreeable the scale we're zero is like a golden retriever and ten is Mister Spock cliff us this would be a solid seven Aaron brown is an eight
00:07:52maybe even an eight point five brown is a member of the tribe of mathematically minded finance guys notice Kwan's the Wall Street quantities together after work at the Odeon restaurant in downtown Manhattan talk about calcium probability in the bond market I guess it's different definitions of clubs around
00:08:14required to the insult invented in the mid nineties that became a doctor is a you know cry everyone is a big guy beard impassive demeanor when I met him I was reminded of my favorite joke about engineers the optimist sees the glass is half full the pessimist sees
00:08:33the glass as half empty the engineer wonders why the glass is twice as large as it needs to be brown grew up in Seattle his mom had a masters in chemistry his dad had a PhD in physics did a lot of unconventional work for the airforce like the
00:08:50time he inherited a strange contraption the Air Force again this guy like two million dollars over ten years to build some machine and they didn't know what it was supposed to do but he was really smart then he killed himself and so therefore said is there anybody who
00:09:06wants this machine can figure out what it doesn't fix it and my dad said sure I'll take it had in our basement a tortured genius builds a sinister contraption with millions of dollars of secret Pentagon money the man mysterious to commit suicide the airforce says who once the
00:09:22machine Aaron brown's dad says over here over here he puts it in his basement and says to his teenage son Aaron Hey take a look if you want like it's a box of like us this is how you raise a child to be in a point five what
00:09:40was the machine I was just this huge projects I stared at that thing for hours and hours I could have tubes and wires of this is that %HESITATION he turned it on and it did kind of feel like Tripp lite up to do interesting things but we never
00:09:53figured out what it was intended to do his notes were indecipherable any burn some of them so either he was the guy who invented like the universal your machine and and whatever or he was just some crazy guy who like wires together maybe was that was that was
00:10:09the thing from that movie come back to the future the Flack the flux capacitor yeah but for the rest of your and maybe he did maybe he teleported himself to some other civilizations something when Aaron brown was a teenager Seattle was in the midst of a deep recession
00:10:26all around him people are losing their jobs he decides he needs a marketable skill he teaches himself poker and finds a big money game in the basement of a local tavern and I figured out two really important things I was much better than these guys I could easily
00:10:42win but he consistently and they let me when it walked out with you know kid comes in place walks out so that's like a different for me that's okay you hold forty but I was a shy kid this took every ounce of courage I possess to walk in
00:10:58there you know other people who could have done this it would be a big deal but for me it was like the most dramatic effect in my life but when I walked in I said okay we never have to worry about getting a meal you know having a
00:11:09place to stay because you always want to pay you if you harbor with poker yes Aaron brown ends up on Wall Street then goes to work for cliff fastness at a Q. our capital of course a match made in heaven do you guys think the same way you
00:11:26have differences in the way you approach problems well the massive difference and the reason he has billions of dollars and I have a comfortable living he cares far more he gets literally physically angry when things don't work out and lose money we I'd rather work on an interesting
00:11:45problem the problem the problem now what are these to do aside from making money of course they do thought experiments write them up and post them online and something called SS are in the social science research network in my opinion the greatest website on the internet place where
00:12:06anyone anyone can post any kind of paper or research or argument and every article posted is then ranked according to its popularity as I'm writing this there are seven hundred ninety eight thousand seven hundred and forty five papers unnecessary I don't know if you remember back at the
00:12:24beginning of the season an episode called divide and conquer I talked about my love of law review articles well where do you think I read law review articles not in law reviews kidding what a way to years for some dusty publication to put something out I read them
00:12:40unnecessary rent because that's where everyone posts articles the minute they finish in Manhattan for years the most important source of gossip was page six of the New York Post SSR and is page six for dorks so not long ago I'm on SSR and poking around and lo and
00:13:00behold what is the number one ranked paper at the time pulling the goalie hockey and investment implications by Clifford nastiness and Aaron brown I thought I didn't have any rules for living I was wrong when the goaltender down three so really giving a big advantage on the power
00:13:25play with the session firmly established here's the issue a hockey team is down by one goal late in the game the coach of the losing team typically removes his own goalie and substitutes in an extra tax so instead of having five offensive players and a goalie gardening that
00:13:44he knows six players and no one guarding it's a tradeoff pulling the goalie makes it easier for the other team to score and put the game even further out of reach but at the same time your extra attacker increases your chances of scoring a goal and tying the
00:14:07game now if you watch hockey you know the coaches typically Polygala with a minute or a minute and a half left in the game but that's just hockey tradition is not based on data when exactly should you pull the goalie tell me the genesis of this paper so
00:14:27I love so much okay well cliff and I talk a lot about sort of court sports stuff and I have always been talking to him about decisions that coaches make that are mathematically indefensible but are different you know makes sense from the coaches motivation and specifically we were
00:14:46talking about Seattle Seahawks two thousand fourteen Superbowl New England Patriots I got the ball on the one yard line second and twenty six seconds to go the big three and it will leave everybody in the world Mars shot in the back at this point brown goes in attention
00:15:17for maybe fifteen minutes about that particular play which has gone down in Superbowl lore as one of the worst coaching decisions in the history of football but brown convinces me that in fact it was the right call the rational call and I would explain his logic to you
00:15:35except that we have much bigger fish to fry anyway talk turns to pulling the goalie in hockey and cliff says to Erin I'll I've done some work on this already six seven years ago man five six years ago I wrote this model in except I'd of pure personal
00:15:54interest I thought I had a neat way to think about the problem essentially it was it's really hard to think about five minutes left but with ten seconds left it's really easy to think about cliff shared his calculations with Aaron brown Erin made the better and build a
00:16:11beautiful computer model and their conclusion was a team down by one goal should pull its goalie with five minutes and forty seconds left in the game and the team down by two goals she pulled its goalie with eleven minutes and forty seconds left eleven minutes and forty seconds
00:16:29within undefended goal no one in all of hockey pulls their goalie without much time left if a coach did that in a playoff game with real stakes involved the entire arena would probably go up in smoke in basketball and baseball there's been a statistical revolution of the past
00:16:50generation known as Moneyball weird Vance metrics have been applied to maximize every aspect of the game hockey is a step behind with the exception of my beloved trying to maple Leafs Hoover genuine Qantas your leader this is a sport where players pick fights with each other in full
00:17:08knowledge of the fact that the penalty for their transgressions will materially diminish their team's chances of winning baseball is quantum theory hockey is the grown up professional version of red rover red rover that wing Gretzky come over hockey coaches are not looking for strategic tips on SS are
00:17:27in so what do they do they keep the goalie in place until the very last minute defending the goal and why do they keep doing that because anything else would be impossibly disagreeable imagine your coach of a hockey team down three one with eleven minutes and forty seconds
00:17:49left in the game you pull your goalie the other team scores so now it's four one with half of the final period left and now your fans think that you've robbed them of what might have been a reasonably interesting game they'll hate to and so you players because
00:18:06it's an awful lot more humiliating to lose a lopsided game than a close one the cliff and Erin strategy may be again in our D. he sends optimal but it doesn't provide the optimal or the maximum amount of entertainment it is a very high probability you create a
00:18:22laugher where the where did we get down by three down by four and of course if you follow the finance cold Vulcan model you never put the goalie back it is still an infinitesimal chance you will tie it and you lose fourteen to nothing and it's embarrassing and
00:18:37maybe entertainment and a sideshow kind of way but it's not what they want who would try this or anything like it not anyone who has any normal human expectation of being liked and applauded but to cliff and Erin need to be liked and applauded no they don't I
00:18:55since found that his firm with a couple of other PhD graduates from the finance department of the university of Chicago which is like the geek capital of the world and his basic hiring philosophy ever since has been to hire more P. H. D.'s disagreeable Kwan's just like him
00:19:12he's now up to seventy three P. H. D.'s for comparison purposes the economics faculty at MIT has forty one P. H. D.'s he's at one point seven eight oh X. M. I. T. N. counting now does he need that many P. H. D.'s I have no idea but
00:19:29how much more fun is office life for insanely smart disagreeable people if at all times they are surrounded by dozens and dozens of other insanely smart and disagreeable people circling each other's arguments like vultures to be one of the watershed days financial markets history it was a manic
00:19:49Monday in the financial markets the Dow tumbled more than five hundred points after two pillars of the street tumbled over the weekend leave remember the start of the financial crisis in two thousand and eight when no one knew what to do stocks for falling in banks teetering on
00:20:05the brink and everyone was running around screaming for the secretary of the treasury to do something Aaron brown told me that if he had been treasury secretary he would have done nothing in fact he would go on a vacation for a few months because the truth was no
00:20:22one knew what to do and when no one knows what to do Aaron brown says the rational thing is to wait until you have the data you need before you start throwing around trillions of dollars in bailout money this is exactly the kind of thing that someone with
00:20:36a disagreeable score of eight point five would say in times of panic the agreeable treasury secretary would want to be a calming presence to projects stability and wisdom to have others look at him and nod approvingly and murmurs something about the importance of a firm handed the teller
00:20:54but not Aaron brown he is in Carrabelle wall street's feelings he cares about the trillion dollars people would be calling for his head he would be poolside in Boca browsing SSR and on his blackberry oh man how great if we could all be as disagreeable as cliff and
00:21:16Aaron suppose you were to give you a hypothetical scenario you have a plucky young team and inexplicably you of ended up in the Stanley Cup Finals and you're up against you know one of the great Pittsburgh Penguins teams the last couple of years ago would you consider pulling
00:21:39the goalie to start the game absolute I would love to do it now I have to do the math do the math always back I went to the university of Toronto that's right to run so that the rapper dear all dies and daughters date movie or yes we
00:22:16the error will fail the but we'll see die glory went on by you know the university of Toronto mascot varsity at basketball games and hockey games a varsity blues runs up and down the sidelines how did this happen other schools have lions Tigers patriots the fighting Irish with
00:22:40a color unit the school with the color is the Stanford cardinal Stanford has an endowment of twenty four point eight billion dollars and I think if you have twenty four point eight billion dollars in the bank you can be a color if you want you can own the
00:22:56whole color severed could be a concept they could be the Stanford University figments of the imagination it doesn't matter the university of Toronto is a state we didn't invent the internet we need all the help we can get so how do we present ourselves to the world as
00:23:14blue if only they or is it recruiter for Canadian college mascots with their powerful matching technology ziprecruiter scans thousands of resumes to find people with the right experience and invite them to apply to your job so you don't go searching for a mascot and end up with a
00:23:35caller right now my listeners can try zip recruiter for free at this exclusive web address ziprecruiter dot com slash level that's zip recruiter dot com slash GLAAD W. E. L. ziprecruiter the smartest way to high a few years ago a movie came out called no good deed starring
00:24:07Taraji P. Henson as a woman named Terry and the ridiculously handsome Idris Elba as Colin no good deed is a home invasion movie and home invasion movies are of a piece with pulling the goalie they are meditations on disagreeable miss not to get pretentious but both goalie pulling
00:24:32and a home invasion genre are versions of the canonical story of god commanding Abraham to kill his son Isaac Soren Kierkegaard wrote about it in fear and trembling god commands Abraham to sacrifice his son Isaac to demonstrate his loyalty and the rational thing is for Abraham to obey
00:24:52god because if god is all powerful then Abraham's future and the future of his family depend on being in god's good graces but how can he look his son in the eye and then kill him it's a disagreeable this test how much will you let the thought of
00:25:08what others think of you and what you think of yourself get in the way of doing what is right in the eyes of god on the one side is fear on the other trembling this is exactly what goes on in home invasion movies absolutely that's Amy Lagos who
00:25:24wrote no good deed to me that's at the core of why these movies are interesting to people why the home invasion genre you know it's an actual genre at this point you know why it it sort it process I called logos up after the revisionist history research team
00:25:43determined that no good deed was the most perfectly Charaka guardian of all home invasion movies it puts you in these incredibly morally ambiguous situations where the audience can see the direct path to success so here's the premise of no good deed it's late on a Friday night raining
00:26:05hard Terry's at home with their two small children okay the doorbell its interests Elba the body is Los all across right he says he's been in an accident he forgot his cell phone can you come in and use your phone she lets him in question he kinda has
00:26:38to be insanely handsome yes for that to work she's she's not gonna let me in if I show up wet bedraggled at a hundred thirty pounds she's not like I don't know I mean I think I think I think maybe she would I think ultimately yes I think
00:26:56he's insane good looks are huge part of that and this and another you know another big part of her character you know she sort of been primed for this moment in in her life leading up to this moment right she's feeling unseen she's feeling unsatisfied in her marriage
00:27:13she's feeling neglected this handsome stranger shows up and compromise is her her instincts you know it it on some level because he's so handsome it's awkward at first but he super charming they flirt a little waiting for the tow truck to come as a whole lot of something
00:27:33in the air and then half way into the movie she sees him for who he really is a deeply evil guy she runs to the kitchen to call the cops and see he's cut the phone line she looks around terrified to see where he's gone can find him
00:27:50then all my god runs upstairs to find him playing with her daughter are if you do it let's go and well right right baby some fun that someone now a couple any longer says she went to see no good deed on opening night at the theater in Baldwin
00:28:24hills in Los Angeles you know it was it was a really rousing it mean there are lines out the door to get in and the place was packed and people were screaming and shouting at the screen and it was wait what point do you remember what point there
00:28:36screen I'm the entire after they get to back to the house where Collins and access is murdered I don't think I could hear a word for that the rest of the film from then on it was just people screaming at her what she should do we do they
00:28:53have well I mean what with a range of things they were suggesting did they say when they say to her run yeah I kill it you know it's like it was it was everything from like run get out of there to kill limited you know to like just
00:29:06every everybody had their answer of what she should do next and they were a hundred percent sure that's what you should do exactly what should Terry do she's a baby and a four year old a psychopath is threatening her children at one point she grabs a fire extinguisher
00:29:25and hits him over the head and tumbles down the stairs but he's Idris Elba he gets back up later interest herds them all into her car and they drive to another house on the way to get pulled over by a cop he suspicious but interest reaches into the
00:29:41backseat and takes her baby into his arms so Terry can't tell the officers he's in trouble Kenji what should she do I felt like I needed high level assistance someone who could put the home invasion dilemma in the broader context so I called up Sam Harris author podcaster
00:30:02neuroscientist the kind of person who would publish his own twelve rules or if pressed maybe even twenty four so yeah if if someone %HESITATION breaks into your house men there few things that are are relevant to to flag there one is that the time of day is relevant
00:30:20if someone breaks in the middle of the night and you were there when they're at now you're talking about somebody who hasn't taken any care to show up when you're not there and the kind of person who does this is the kind of person who either doesn't care
00:30:37to find out a person in the house that he's breaking into or finding a person there is part of the fun rise to this selects for the scariest kind of criminal that would be a dress Elba in No good deed you can't assume that this person has any
00:30:57ethics that you can interact with profitably by by bargaining by the pleading your case by it yet and this is just that's not who's come into the window for you know in all likelihood halfway through my interview with Sam Harris I began mentally calculating his score on the
00:31:16disagreeable this index I'm thinking nine point five and I must admit this is highly counter intuitive and perhaps impossible to act on that but I mean just just think this through Sam Harris says you have only one option when a dress L. but is up stairs playing with
00:31:38your kids that's your opportunity Rhonda everything in us recoils at the idea of doing that except it does change the situation in a surprising way wanted introduces significant uncertainty in the mind of of your attacker because now he knows that the clock is ticking you can your you'll
00:32:03be summoning help in a matter of moments or or minutes at the longest and then you know you will discover just what sort of attacker this person is we'll discover just what sort of attacker this person is your concern is that he's going to going to kill your
00:32:29child because you didn't follow instructions they very likely this is the sort of person who is going to kill your child anyway right or and can men kill you as well it's late in the third period your Taraji Henson you're losing down by a gold a psychopath now
00:32:47running away carries a huge social cost and a real risk of an even more disastrous outcome but at the same time it increases your chances of winning from zero to something slightly greater than zero pull the goalie that is a totally rational option and may in fact be
00:33:05the only rational option but it's impossible isn't it you've got to be disagreeable level eight or nine to pull that off reimagine how you will look to your child or to your wife or to anyone else who's you know terrified and looking in your direction for help if
00:33:22you just bolt from the house at that moment it's it's only when you come with the cavalry and rescue everyone that you know that you that you seem like you were in a wise and responsible but in those moments it's just seems like a total failure and you
00:33:37know man fact feel like a failure I know that sounds crazy I thought can't be right but he is right the job of a parent being held hostage by interest Elba is not to win a parental popularity contest is to maximize their child's chances of survival I try
00:33:57to convince any Lagos of this Amy Lagos herself the mother of two small children wish me luck she should run without her children like she should just this is what I want to get this is this is totally what I talk about let's think about this rationally she
00:34:17what's he gonna do to the kids when she's not there right right is there any the only reason to mess with her kids is to get leverage over her well not necessarily she does not know what his motivation is right Oshima he just could be a just a
00:34:38cycle pandered issue yes yeah I mean I'm telling you if I am in my house and I realize that there is somebody there is a psychopath in my house I am not leaving my kids like you could you could burn the house down and I would stay with
00:34:54the kids no no no the fact that he's a psychopath is exactly why you should leave her children behind it's your only chance to save the maybe run for the love of god rule number one for a living poll the goalie in common law there's a principle called
00:35:19duty to retreat which holds that a person being threatened as a duty to retreat to a place of safety to exhaust all avenues of escape before they can justifiably use force in self defense in the past several years though about half of American states have passed stand your
00:35:38ground laws now what's a stand your ground law it's a law that effectively repeals duty to retreat it says you don't need to exhaust all avenues of escape to claim self defense in a court of law you can stand your ground defend yourself and the law will support
00:35:55that choice duty to retreat is a legal principle that gives people license to act disagree a plea I am not a coward if I cut and run at the first opportunity I am in fact acting Marley and responsibly stand your ground laws sanction the socially agreeable act they
00:36:17say what matters is that you preserve your honor in front of family and community I did not run I stood my ground so what's happening in those states that now have stand your ground laws well I refer you to stand your ground laws homicides and injuries journal of
00:36:37human resources summer twenty seventy I think overall we found about seven and half seven point seven percent %HESITATION increase in the overall homicide rate that's Chandler McClellan adjunct professor at American University first author of the study in question states that passed stand your ground laws saw their murder
00:36:59rates rise seven point seven percent compared to states that didn't pass those laws well the fact that the homicide rate increases in these cases suggests that that's not the case that people are using these laws and standing their ground in cases where they're actually not being we fully
00:37:19threatened they could de escalate the situation they could get away but instead they're choosing to engage in self defense and use lethal force against this threat and as a result you're seeing this kind of net increase and in homicide rates and who are all these extra people getting
00:37:37killed and stand your ground states white men I think our estimates kinda show about twenty percent twenty five percent increase in homicides among white males and actually that seems a a with a little high in Los it's a huge number yeah it exactly it is %HESITATION but nevertheless
00:37:58that's kind of why that's what fell out the the model yeah yeah we speculate that because the white male population is the population this most interested in the gun culture armed and more likely to be members of organizations like the NRA %HESITATION because white males are so entrenched
00:38:17in this sort of culture we think that these laws are most salient for them and as a result there ma'am most aware of them and they are most likely to act on them so a certain kind of white guy who is really into guns and the NRA get
00:38:33super excited about stand your ground laws and instead of looking to avoid violence or run away grabs his gun and stands his ground that is right before the other guy shoots him dead if they try to get sick is the is the most appropriate word but on the
00:38:51other were distributors ironic that the NRA is has been pursuing a policy agenda was stand your ground that has the effect of getting its own members killed I did it is a little ironic figuring out when to pull the goalie or what to do in a dress Elba
00:39:13shows up late at night seem like abstract intellectual exercises they are not they are rehearsals for real life because being disagreeable when you need to be disagreeable is hard especially because the world around us the crowd in the stands the short sighted lawmakers they encourage us to do
00:39:35the easy and agreeable thing which gets us killed pull the goalie I I have an end to she's a strategy and who want to your calls me to ask when she should convert her Aussie dollars too wherever she's going that you're on vacation for about ten years I
00:39:55explained incendiary in our we do have views on currencies but they're micro use their fifty one percent chance of being right let alone on a given day %HESITATION %HESITATION so I am loath to give this to you and should always act like I do the answer I just
00:40:09refused to tell our you're after year his Australian art called and cliff refused to help her then one day the fastest realized he didn't have to always be disagreeable she said once I convert my my Aussie dollars to Japanese yet and I go not this but next Thursday
00:40:30and everyone was happy she I cried was lauded for giving her the truth yeah she was happy because he really feels she knows what she's doing she never tax before after and I did not harm her one drop because nobody knows what day to do it and she
00:40:48was always going to do it on some arbitrary day I just picked the arbitrary data so there's a case of maybe it's suboptimal but I picked a %HESITATION high EQ if not I Q. yes solution you are protecting your reputation as opposed to you with how much is
00:41:02making my aunt not mad at me he could be cliff fastness polar of goalies he could also be cliff asked this dutiful nephew Malcolm Gladwell was first rule for living pull the goalie but be wise enough to know that disagreeable this is not a matter of temperament it
00:41:20is a choice but I love you take calls from your end about currency %HESITATION and what did he say next anyone is successful alone take calls from their crazy aunt is is no friend of mine Malcolm Gladwell second rule for living two down tend to go revisionist history
00:41:51is a panoply production the senior producer is meal a bell with Jacob Smith and Camille Battista our editor is Julie apart one Williams is our engineer fact checking by Beth Johnson original music by Louise Gera special thanks to Andy Bowers and Jacob Weisberg I'm out and what makes
00:42:20you a good poker player %HESITATION two things there's just the basic math a theory which I think but while I was able to work but if you're quite right but the real thing that such a part he is something I think you have to do by traditional wisdom
00:42:39you have to learn this in your teens white bring us the forming and you have to do it under intense sleep deprivation so we do the seventy two hour sessions with maybe a few power naps in between and you're pushing every cent you have in the world sometimes
00:42:54more than every section of the world middle class and then develop certain mental abilities back the way I think about it is I think you manage to harness the processing power unconscious brain so that you're not staring at people in the cable and sort of you know enumerating
00:43:12tells you that person moody's checked your unconscious brain is so much better at noticing what people do kinda like blink you know you just look at somebody and you don't you don't know he hold cease and Jackie in fact until you to happen it says this guy is
00:43:30afraid to lose or this guy is afraid of being blocked and it tells you what they're gonna do if you do something sort tells you when you can push they're gonna hold or when you can draw them and %HESITATION and they're going to go high this I take
00:43:46goes on for a long time if that bothers you I don't care anymore it is a curse I would never recommend to somebody yes you can make money from it live it strips away all our illusions right it's a lot more pleasant in life to believe things like
00:44:05love and friendship and honor once your results we strip all that away and just look very objectively how people act is probably something psychopaths do the world's a bleak place this kind of dangerous road to go down do you do you feel like you went down that road
00:44:23yeah yeah and how did it affect your life it what it meant is that your your guess kind of you know you don't really trust anybody you you can you essentially trust of you know what they're gonna do and because you know what they're gonna do just %HESITATION
00:44:41but I guess it almost makes you treated like robots that you can predict what they're gonna do you know their program and therefore you can't really trust that there is love and friendship and honor or anything like that so that's one of the reasons to move to finance
00:44:57actually moved from poker to sports betting and then to finance the wellness industry is a multi billion dollar machine selling grand promises promises that we can be smarter stronger are happier how many of these promises are true each week on by the book we explored this very question
00:45:17in the most immersive way possible by living according to the rules a best selling self help books eating what they want us to eat dressing as they tell us to address and talking as they say we should talk join me Kristin my answer and need to learn to
00:45:30Greenberg on by the book from panoply listen on apple podcast or wherever you get your favorite shows

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