TRANSCRIPT 🔗
00:00:00
Speaker 1: New Internet says, real quick, because this is fascinating, Internet says the first one of these. So anyone who's not familiar with Internet says, it's just cool baseball stories going on on the Internet. They live on Reddit, they live their their threads, their feel good stories. They are things that aren't covered normally, and I think they're cool because I think the culture and the community around the game is awesome.
00:00:31
Speaker 2: So the first thing in Internet, says.
00:00:35
Speaker 1: Tommy Fam makes his case for MLB's next big metric.
00:00:38
Speaker 2: He calls it Famgraphs.
00:00:40
Speaker 1: Okay, so this is an article written by again EO and Will Salmon.
00:00:43
Speaker 2: My guys, these are the resident nerds. I love these dudes.
00:00:46
Speaker 1: This is very analytics heavy, but go check out The Athletic. It's a great article where Tommy Fam basically says I don't like the advanced analytics context of being left out because frankly, and he's correct here, I agree with him. They tend to undervalue guys like him because he brings specific types of things, situational things, situational awareness that aren't represented very well in advancealytics. But I will give I will give one caveat for this whole thing analytics in general. Advanced analytics are literally made to add additional context for statistics. So the goal is to be able to represent why Tommy fam is valuable in statistics. It's just that gap is empty right now, and it takes a lot of like intent, knowing what the intent of things were and then accomplishing that and then representing that with stats. You need players to do that because they're the ones who know about the intent. So I think there's just a gap here in what stats were making because a lot of people making them just didn't play.
00:01:48
Speaker 2: That's fine.
00:01:49
Speaker 1: There just is going to be a level of context which they know about, and every analytics guy knows ei there's a certain level context that I will not have. So talking to players is so awesome. I love getting the feedback, right, people who are like not saying you're dumb, and they're more like, hey, but like what if why is this guy better at stranding runners than this guy? Like why, we know they are, but why how can we represent that with tests? So that's what Tommy fam is talking about.
00:02:14
Speaker 2: But I love it.
00:02:15
Speaker 1: I love this idea from a from a standpoint. So like we're gonna talk a little bit about what Tommy is trying to the case he's making, and Uh, I've thought about this a lot, and I realized that I've also made this case. It just never gave an interview about it. So I agree with him.
00:02:29
Speaker 2: This is fascinating.
00:02:30
Speaker 1: Uh So here's my boy, Tommy fam So in the article, he calls it fangraphs because obviously there's fang grass. I don't know if that's a website. I don't know what he means, but like just a group of statistics that represent more uh intangible context stuff and the thing that he kind of separates it in two buckets, Right, we have interw we have we have situational so like.
00:02:51
Speaker 2: Like your ability, you're how clutch are you?
00:02:54
Speaker 1: Like what type of pitching are you facing all the time? Are you facing bad pictures or good pictures? And that affects your years. So one of the examples he gives is one, Now, you play for the Pirates and you're always losing, but you have good pitching. Right, here's a prime example. You're you're always behind, but the game's always pretty close because your pitchers are good. So if you're always down by three or last runs, you're facing your last two bats the leverage guys every game for the whole season, you're gonna face way more of the higher quality pitching as opposed to the Dodgers, who score tons of runs. They get lots of big leads, especially against teams like the Rockies who have a lot of rookies and they kind of so you can you can kind of take advantage of young, not as good pitching. When you score lots of runs your way ahead early the game, you're gonna face a bunch of bunch of mop up guys and you're gonna probably score a bunch more runs. And if you get a lot of that in the year, your year is gonna look a lot better. So like the same player could be in that lineup versus the Pirates and be have completely different offensive seasons, even if they still had the same approach. And there's just the environment or the situational stuff happening was just wildly different. And there's no stats. There's very few stats. You gotta get really creative with stats to find that. And that's the case he was making, right, which I think is really really interesting and I think he's onto something.
00:04:09
Speaker 2: There.
00:04:09
Speaker 1: There's a there's a great point about leverage not being represented stats. So for this is important to me as a reliever, because how do you tell if you're not a closer. How do you prove that you're a good reliever without like just do going off with stats?
00:04:23
Speaker 2: Right?
00:04:24
Speaker 1: What if you're a guy who throws the sixth inning and you go in and for some reason the team brought in the guy in the seventh who just cashes your runs every time, Like, you get a guy in first, a second, get two outs, the guy comes it gives them three hond run. You just give up two runs without giving him two runs. Now, your stats look way better than his. His stats look better than yours even though he just catch your runs. Like, how do you how do you count for that leverage index? Something I used in freegency. We were talking leverage in dex the whole time. Look how good he is in leverage? Look at goodian leverage. Look how much how many guys he's the best in the major leagues of the last three years and stranding runners and keeping inherited runners was scoring. He's the best at preventing runners from scoring when he comes in there on, how do you get that? You get
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that their in handed runners, they don't talk about it very much, and there's no advance to that, so you have to go find that and make that case. That's what Tommy is saying. Tommy's like, I need to be able to show these teams that I'm valuable. He where's he coming from. He's a free agent right now, and internally teams know this stuff internally, but like you have to go with a presentation and prove it. You have to be like, here's our PowerPoint why you should sign me, and so that is what's happening. He gets frustrated when he's like, oh my god, we have to do this convoluted presentation where I could just point and be like, but the public doesn't know about this stuff, so everyone thinks he sucks and it's frustrating.
00:05:35
Speaker 2: And I hear that the other bucket.
00:05:37
Speaker 1: Is environmental, so he wants like sun and wind factored in to like defensive metrics, like if you're in a place where it is windy, you were outside and it's cold and then it gets hot and there's sun in your eyes the whole time. Like the oapen Calli scene, for example, was so big and the sun the sky was so high and it was always cloudless, that like there's a lot of like messed up fly balls lost in the sun more so than anywhere else. That's a hard place to play defensively. Also cover a lot of a lot of You have to cover a lot of ground as an outfielder, right, so like you have to have a lot of range as well. So like that might you might if that person plays in Toronto, where it's covered most of the time, it's consistent every time, you don't have to worry about wind very much in the.
00:06:17
Speaker 2: High sky as much.
00:06:18
Speaker 1: Then you might be having the same defensive player and he'll look way better in Toronto than he does in Colisseum Colisseum. Like waiting, that stuff isn't very good though he talks about like factoring and win on certain balls and on certain balls, you'll never be able to time that stuff, even though they do have that data. You'll never be able to time it, like you just it'll be always be kind of circumstantial anyways, it'll always be kind.
00:06:38
Speaker 2: Of like guest work.
00:06:40
Speaker 1: So I don't know how we actually put in like where the sun was at the exact moment we tried to catch the ball, But factoring in sunballs and figuring out a way to remove them from the bucket would be helpful. And he's got a good point, but I'm not super sold on how you do that. You kind of have to tell the story like he is now.
00:06:55
Speaker 2: But I like it.
00:06:57
Speaker 1: I like where he's coming from. I like these ideas.
00:07:00
Speaker 2: Tommy. I think you're I think you're on to something. Brother.
00:07:04
Speaker 1: It's it's really, really, really interesting. So he's he made a quote here. He said, a one hundred weighted runs created plus your ability to produce runs an advanced at outside of RBIs on the Pirates is not the same as one hundred weighted runs created plus on the Yankees or the Dodgers. The best offensive base baseball, the best offense has become even better because they have leads so often, like I said before. So he's right, like, yeah, that is frustrated. As a reliever, how do you how do you prove that, like you're you're good if your e RA is a little bit inflated because five of your runs were cast during the year, and they're like, well, your ERA was a three eight, like had had someone came in was clutched one time for me when I was out of the game, when I was pulled when I could have got out of the situation and those three runs scored had that not happened. I once taught one time had something called an arrow that was very a hit that was the most blatantly obvious era in my I've ever seen, and all three runs were went from being unearned earned and it was someone else gave up the hit two. So I got three runs on my are for nothing and I would have had a sub three, but instead I ended the year with this three five without those reds. That that's what we're talking about. So when you're when you're a guy like him and a guy like me, or you're not a run away, it makes sense we're like these mid tier, low tier like reliever like uh uh, late edition outfielders that do a good job in clutch situations.
00:08:30
Speaker 2: There's there's no.
00:08:30
Speaker 1: Status, like our value is so hard to prove, even though we are valuable and we do certain things that are very valuable really well, and there's just no status. So I agree, What do you think? Should we call it fangraphs?
00:08:39
Speaker 2: Though?
00:08:40
Speaker 1: Should I make fangraphs? Should I feel like I want to make this I want to find these things. I want to create interesting, weird things. And you know what I'm gonna do. I'm gonna make them all more than four letters because I am a masochist.
00:08:53
Speaker 2: That's cool.
00:08:54
Speaker 1: So I want to know you guys think I think this is a fascinating anyway, let's move on, moving on with more of Internet says, be a little bit faster because I want to get in the AMAS.
00:09:01
Speaker 2: All right.
00:09:03
Speaker 1: I don't know if you guys notice, but this was released by Baseball Reference. The most searched basically searched player on the platform for.
00:09:12
Speaker 2: The last year.
00:09:12
Speaker 1: Obviously Clayton Kershaw's final year. He ran away with it. But there's a couple of weird ones in here, right. We have Nolan Ryan and Oklahoma okay, but up in Iowa, up there was Kyle Farnsworth, who hasn't played since twenty fourteen. He played twelves in big leagues and he's not really a household name. And it's a really funny reason why Kyle Farnsworth won Iowa And it recently came out.
00:09:34
Speaker 2: This is hilarious. So on New Year's Eve, Baseball Reference posted this. They do it every year.
00:09:39
Speaker 1: It's kind of like their They're wrapped Spotify rap right the map showing all the search non show e A Tani Piccher was in each state, so it's no show, no show, hey show Hey, what
couldn't be on this or it would have whatever, it would have been.
00:09:52
Speaker 2: Blue either way.
00:09:53
Speaker 1: Right, So there was a lot of Kershaw and Crochet and Schimes right like in where around their areas than this cale. Someone DM baseball Reference with the possible condition and it said, quote right here theer baseball reference. I'm telling you, my dad is the reason Kyle Farnsworth.
00:10:09
Speaker 2: Is number one in Iowa. I'd love to hear it.
00:10:17
Speaker 1: No, not actually, but he does immaculate grid every day on his lunch break. He doesn't know how to switch chrome tabs, so every time you look someone up, he goes to the home screen where Kyle farnsworth page is.
00:10:26
Speaker 2: Pinned, and he will look from there.
00:10:28
Speaker 1: It probably visits Kyle's page thirty times a day, maybe more so.
00:10:35
Speaker 2: The working theory here is that.
00:10:39
Speaker 1: One guy in Iowa has looked up Kyle Farnsworth thirty times a day for an entire year, and that was enough to make Kyle Farnsworth the most search baseball reference guy in Iowa, which if big, if true, like that's I mean, that's phenomenal. That's phenomenal. That's what I'm talking about. That's what I'm talking about. That stuff data. Okay, another story. It turns out Pole says that soccer is now more popular in America than baseball. Fan Stuff declared favorite sport Q four twenty twenty four percentage of total.
00:11:17
Speaker 2: Now it's funny.
00:11:18
Speaker 1: This is from twenty twenty four to twenty twenty three.
00:11:19
Speaker 2: Why we're hearing about it now, I don't know.
00:11:21
Speaker 1: But also favorite is spelled fao U r I t E, which means it's either Canada or Europe, which means it's bias, which means it's fake news. Probably mixed martial arts is the bottom sources and pure analysis. I've never heard of it, so think what you want. But baseball is now the fourth most popular sport. Hey whatever, man, soccer's fricking lit Who cares? Okay, Now I have one sad thing to talk about. That's Tyler Luke, the kicker for the Ravens. He missed the field goal to win not only the game but the division and get a playoff berth as time ran out against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
00:12:10
Speaker 2: And now we have Aaron Judge, Aaron Rodgers.
00:12:12
Speaker 1: Going to the playoffs with the Steelers, and you saw it right there, missing the biggest field goal of your life. You're paid to do exactly one thing. It is a damned if you do, and you're good for now if you or damned if you don't. You're good for now until next time. If you do situation, which as a reliever, I understand, you're either doing your job or you suck ass.
00:12:36
Speaker 2: Those are the two options.
00:12:37
Speaker 1: And I feel for Tyler loop On that you mis say, forty four yard field goal wide right, and then you saw him hold his mask. You saw him his backup quarterback. Is the guy holding for him? Give him a little tap and then a walk away and leave him alone.
That is miserable. Now one of the greatest kickers of all time.
00:12:55
Speaker 2: Kyle Tucker.
00:12:56
Speaker 1: Kyle Tucker Hold Tucker, am I crazy Tucker for the Ravens now has uh He now has some competition for the hardest field goal ever to watch for Ravens fans.
00:13:11
Speaker 2: So that's a tough one. I feel for the guy.
00:13:15
Speaker 1: I know he's feeling he's feeling really really bad, but I'm gonna give him credit. The guy handled it like a champion. In the postgame presser, he took he took responsibility, and he knows that like it's a binary, it's it's a eye hit it or I missed it, like yes or no, Like that's his job.
00:13:30
Speaker 2: And there is no good.
00:13:32
Speaker 1: There is no almost, especially in that job. There is no almost, and he knows that. And you have to just figure out a way to come come back in a blaze.
00:13:41
Speaker 2: Worry. But hey, brad Ledge did it. You can do a two. Tyler Bile accounts. You're a great kicker.
00:13:46
Speaker 1: So this is the only kick in NFL history came as time expired in the fourth quarter of a final. We could see the boath tam playoff wresting on it. Uh, solely on the result of the kicks, the first time that ever happened, and it didn't go well.
00:13:58
Speaker 2: Uh. I did see an interesting thing.
00:14:00
Speaker 1: Now, I don't even know if this is this is verifiable, but I want to hear what you guys have to say, if any of you guys know it. But like in the last I don't know, fifteen years, field goals, field goals kicked at as time expires from sixty yards or further like that, specific set, so like a long field goal to end a game where the where one team wins. Uh, like twenty one percent of them have been against the New York Giants, so like the Giants have lost more in that way than anyone else.
00:14:33
Speaker 2: Buy a lot.
00:14:34
Speaker 1: And it's really funny. That's extreme. I think it's happened in like seven times or eight times in that time, and like the next highest was like two. How fun is that? Isn't that fun fun little fact for you?
00:14:46
Speaker 2: Now?
00:14:46
Speaker 1: I don't even know if it's true, but if it is, it's pretty awesome. But uh, last thing I want to say about the kicking thing. The biggest one of the biggest moments pressure moments in my career wasn't really like a pressure from the from the This was more of a legacy thing. But I came in to Joe Mahers's final game where he caught one hitter in the last inning to Matt Belile.
00:15:07
Speaker 2: Matt Bleile win in the game.
00:15:08
Speaker 1: This is before there were the three hitter rule, and Matt Blile went into the game, he threw one hitter, he gave up a double. I love Maddy Bee, but that happened, gave up a double. So there's no outs. We're up three to two in Joe Mahers's final game as a as a twin and he gets pulled. He's not catching more than they bring me in to close the game with a guy in second, so auto guy on second. We're up by one run and I was able to punch out the side to get out of it. So the most pressure I've ever felt, though, I was like, oh my god, I cannot ruin Joe Moo Mahers's last game. I can't do it, especially can't let this thing go to extras. So that that was pressure I felt. Fortunately I was able to get out of it. But like there was other ones in the September eleventh game twenty twenty one where I give the Homer to Judge, I got a lot of pressure that day, and I know that I've never been on this level though. That's ups Hey