ABOUT THIS EPISODE

Peter is a geopolitical strategist who combines expertise in demography, economics, energy, politics, technology, and security to assess an uncertain future. Before founding his own strategy firm, Peter helped develop the analytical models for Stratfor, one of the world’s premier private intelligence companies.  

I came across Peter via his books the Accidental Superpower and the Absent Superpower. We discuss America’s changing place in the world and four additional countries poised to do well in the future. Spoiler alert: he believes the U.S. is particularly well positioned. 

While we don’t discuss equity markets per se, all of what we talk about will obviously impact companies across the world for the remainder of our careers. Please enjoy our conversation.

For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.

Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub.

Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag

 

Show Notes

1:32 - (First Question) – His model of the world

4:05 – What makes for a strategically advantaged country

5:35 – History of the Bretton Woods agreement and the order that it created

8:47 – The security apparatus that has made globalization of manufacturing possible

12:04 – The US’s pullback from being the naval police of global trade

            12:08 The Absent Superpower: The Shale Revolution and a World Without America

14:57 – How energy has played into America’s disinterest abroad

21:52 – Moving towards global disorder

24:55 – Characterizing factors that will impact countries in any collapse

27:38 – How this manifest in physical conflict

32:44 – How the new world order will end the ease of innovation we are accustomed to today

34:13 – What gets the US to reengage before this new world order

38:08 – Demographics that make a country prepared for this, Japan as an example

40:57 – A look at China

43:59 – What the story is about Argentina

45:52 – How North America fares based on their geography and relationships

49:50 – The trader wars that are currently ongoing

52:17 – US political system

56:15 – Most important policy issues moving forward

58:27 – His view on American infrastructure

1:00:33 – Technologies that interest him the most

1:02:55 – What he is watching most closely in his research, starting with media

1:05:59 – What are and should be the countries of the future

1:06:55 – Kindest thing anyone has done for Peter

1:07:32 – Favorite places he’s been

 

Learn More

For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast

Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub

Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag

English
United States

TRANSCRIPT

00:00:00everyone on Patrick O'Shaughnessy and this is invest like the best this show is an open-ended exploration of markets ideas method stories end of strategies that will help you better invest both your time and your money you can learn more and stay up-to-date and investors Field Guide. Com
00:00:22Patrick O'Shaughnessy is the CEO of a Shaughnessy Asset Management all opinions expressed by Patrick and podcast guests are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of a Chauncy Asset Management this podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for investment decisions clients of a Shaughnessy Asset Management May maintain positions and the Securities discussed in this podcast has Peter zeihan Peter is AG a political strategist who combines expertise in demography economics energy politics technology and security to assess an uncertain future before founding his own strategy firm Peter helped develop the analytical models for strap for one of the world's Premier private intelligence companies I came across Peter by his great books The Accidental superpower and the absent superpower we discuss America's changing place in the world and for additional countries poised to do well in the future spoiler alert he believes the u.s. is particularly well positioned
00:01:22discuss Equity markets per say all of what we talked about will obviously impact companies across the world for the remainder of our careers please enjoy our conversation
00:01:34sopita this is a totally unorthodox conversation for me given a normally talk about business and investing but we're going to talk about history politics geography demographics all sorts of interesting topics my world and your world and I think a great place to start would be sure the way the lenses through which you view history and think about the future so I mentioned some of these ideas demographics in geography but if you could sort of create for us your model of the world and then we'll take that model and apply both the history and what might be happening now and then future really break the entire chunks when is the Imperial age when you basically had a few countries based in some really good geographies with good Capital generation internal trade capabilities large populations that sort of thing that were able to dominate their neighbors but to then reach out a dumb as large chunks of the planet and the Imperial age brought us most of the technological advancement that were familiar with but it also led to a series of catastrophic War
00:02:34ultimately ended World War II face to the Americans pick up the pieces American to the last one standing after the war and they said let's try something a little bit different so instead of these Imperial Kors dominating large chunks we told everybody whether they were in Imperial core or Colony that everyone's independent now everyone can trade with everyone else and we'll use our Navy to protect everyone all you have to do a side with us against the Soviets and in this Global Order we fought and won the Cold War and it worked and then what so phase 3 was the Americans just kind of letting the system run on autopilot where there's no Foe and this brought us the biggest boom in capital generation in world history which led to a series of economic
00:03:21outperforming countries and a lot of technological development in this is the time of the brick Boom for example where ending the third age now because the Americans have realized that the scuba order structure is no longer appropriate for their needs of the day or not quite sure what their needs are but they're pretty sure that it doesn't require the rest of the world they're probably right which means it every country that is reworked it's political system its economic system is financial Network in order to take full advantage of all the geopolitical goodies that are out there right now all the sudden have to figure out how to do without and we are entering the fourth age of human history we are entering the disorder and whether you're the Chinese Communist Party of the European Union everything that has made your system work the last two generations is about to end let's set the stage at the may be very early in history with the types of qualities that make for a competitive or strategically Advantage country
00:04:21I heard you mention that maybe there's like 10 to 12 I'm different countries that sort of had this natural collection of strategic Advantage points are resources that make them in a better position I guess then the rest of the world to compete in the world maybe that is more disorderly if you highlight what those things are as down to the very simple like arable land he knows the mountains make great borders oceans make better borders you want to make sure the people can't park there tanks on your lawn that's you got a factor number one number two you don't want that crunchiness in the middle that's gross you want flat terrible temper Atlanta you want to be tempered with winter so that you don't have to worry about the tropics and bugs and diseased you want to be horrible seeing grow your own food and if you can pull it off you want a navigable river moving things from ATB he's one of the most expensive and difficult things that humans do and if you can float it cost about 1/12 as much so if you look at the really powerful
00:05:21countries through world history they have this kind of mix of factors whether it's Russia or France or Germany or the United Kingdom or Japan to certain degree China and of course the United States has more of it and it better set up a better alignment of this than anybody else obviously we live in a world that is way more integrated now in terms of Supply chains and trade routes and specialization and all these things maybe talk a little bit about the history of the Bretton Woods agreement post World War II and the the sort of order the orderly stated that created from that stage through really where we sit today I think it's some history and understanding of that environment will help us understand what's going to happen next and obviously the the specialization has been possible under fairly stable and peace like X might be changing your views open and maybe lay out what what happened in that agreement it's probably good to tell it in the story from the point of view manufacturing how did those two have interacted so in the time before Bretton Woods in the time before the order in the Imperial age if you were going to build a wall
00:06:21you basically built it all in one place you bringing your Capital you bringing your technology and you'd have local labor and local infrastructure do every step the manufacturing chain possible in the same location to get these big conglomerate industrial cities if you if you had a navigable river that's great you could spread out the supply chain system long that River But ultimately you keep it in the house and then when you had your finished product that is what was distributed the whole idea of Bretton Woods was that we're all on the same side and then International Commerce is no longer a viable targets the u.s. Navy will prevent that from happening. This was a strategic bribe is very effective in bringing everybody into the American Network during the Cold War we basically paid everybody to be on our side that changed how we built things because if the ocean is now safe and if International transport is cheap then there's no need to have your tire manufacturer
00:07:21recent one place and so we started to see diversification we started to see Supply changed and whatever company or country could have a competitive Advantage It Whatever step of the production process that is where that facility would go so we went from having facilities in one location to 22102 100 mm be the iPhone touches 1200 different facilities in 52 countries today and that's allowed us to have huge advancement in The Human Condition and to spread wealth and democracy far and wide this is all an outcome of the Strategic ordered the American set up but this was never the goal this is a side effect well without the Americans without the order this whole no happens in Reverse at all these economies of scale that we have gotten from this new continuity goes away
00:08:17and if you are a place that can build this part of this or that part of a widget cheaper or more effectively it doesn't really matter if you don't have the local consumption or the local resource base are the local security that's needed to guarantee it so we're going to see a collapse of global manufacturing from these far-flung gangly multi continent supply chain systems too much more constrained networks were inputs production and consumption aren't simply physically secure where the code located right now the only place on the planet that happens is North America can you talk more specifically about the security apparatus that is made as possible submission ocean so I go to Navy's immediately some detail on what this actually looks like how dominant is it say the u.s. Navy relative to the second most competitive Navy. Are the various trade routes like some details around what the system looks like now would be it would be really interesting most people don't realize is that was kind of a blowout from a naval point of view
00:09:17powers that entered the war with the exception of the Brits and Americans everybody lost every ship they had and soap extra be cut to the end of the war only was one day because the American system at that point and then because the American said hey everybody we're on the same side will use our Navy to protect you nobody really felt the need to float a Navy there was no point as a result the United States went in the direction to Super carriers and everybody else went in the direction of downsizing so by the time we got to be enough Cold War the US Navy was about seven or eight times as powerful as the combined navies of the rest of the planet and then of course with the post-soviet collapse the Russian Navy went away and so that number today is probably a factor of 10 and the United States is the only pic country Fields super carriers and we are in the process of unleashing a new class of them upon the world be before class which are more powerful than the ones that came before so at least for the next decade or two
00:10:18you're looking at that gap between the United States and the combined navies of the rest of your life Lee increasing rather than decreasing now it rates of global Naval buildup and the Chinese are floating lot more ships you're probably looking at the global Navy roughly equating to the strength of the American Navy near 2240 this is not the sort of thing I lose a lot of sleep over doesn't mean that the u.s. Navy can sale anywhere at any time and a lot of the Strategic angst we've seen among the military Community United States is oh no we can't take an aircraft carrier within sight of the Chinese Shore okay well why would you do that I always find it amusing when people thinking that there's a the Primacy means omnipotence and no that's not it it's not that the United States can't get hurt it is the United States can choose the time in the place of whatever Conflict at once. For trade we have seen global trade expand rapidly by a factor of a thousand since the 1930s
00:11:16about 95% of that is on the water now the United States Continental System are trade is the least integrated in the world we only trade for ten to fifteen percent of GDP based on whose numbers you're using for the Chinese the number is double for the Germans it's triple and on like everybody else is Commerce most of ours is held internally within the NAFTA system so that 15% about half of it is with in North America and doesn't use the ocean really at all so the United States is the deterministic power of the global system and it doesn't use that system so if you were Germany or China Japan or anybody else who actually depends upon the ocean blue you are utterly dependent on American commitment. Commitment Fades or God forbid reverses then you are truly out of lock out how that might happen so and your second book is still the absent superpower you talk about some of the precipitance for the us having less in
00:12:16let me just mention the major one of we're just don't we back to our Commerce it's just way lower or exports as a percentage of GDP are quite low relative to other major powers in the world the Navy is obviously one key component or control of global trade routes but you just mention that we're building more you are so we're strengthening not weakening our military so should we expect that the u.s. is going to police those routes less is that is that part of what makes us the absentee superpower talk talk to me about what kind of what is actually happening today that makes you think we may care less and act Less in the future I wouldn't say it's a less issue I would say to not at all issue two sides to that one place Oakley has been moving away from interest in the global system for four presidents now under Herbert Walker Bush there was talk of a new world order you remember the thousand points of light that was his attempt to get Americans talking about this so we can figure out what we want from the world of generation from now and of course us being Americans we voted them out of office for it and he was the last guy who really gave it to him then we
00:13:16add Clinton new songs office domestic President we had W who ran a one-issue foreign policy for 8 years and we had Barack Obama who really didn't have a foreign policy at all so we've been moving in the direction of something like Donald Trump for 25 years and now we're here so this is this is the presidency under which it all ends not because it's Trump just because it just would have been a little bit better organized so politically we've been moving this direction for some time 25 years and this is the presidency under which it all falls apart strategically militarily I'd argue moving destruction almost as long patrolling the global oceans means that you must maintain a sufficiently large maybe to deter intervention on the Seas everywhere at the same time that was half of the reason we used to have a 681 hour Navy's fewer than 300 chips and it's heavily heavily clustered around those 11 aircraft carriers
00:14:16which means the United States has mobile bases that can sale anywhere in the world one at a time three at a time whatever it takes I really smash the crap out of anything that is perceived as a threat but those are the type of Naval deployment that you use to actually Patrol the sea-lanes regardless of whether or not the United States once to patrol Global Commerce anymore I'd argue that it no longer has a Navy that is appropriate for that task which means that this isn't going to be a bit by bit collapse of the global order when it happens and it becomes apparent that you were the Americans can't or won't guarantee Global Commerce the whole thing more or less falls apart once and you want to talk about something the markets are not ready for its that the other important than going all this is energy so this is a topic that's needed my heart my family has a long history in the oil business here in the US and I'm just fascinated by what's happened in US production specifically Shale in the last 15 years or whatever to talk to us about what has happened
00:15:16and why it's so significant for this absenteeism and for sort of American disinterest abroad 1979-1980 360 2007 in each one the United States oil patch took advantage of high oil prices increased production to develop new technologies work at once and it all the time we got to 2007 we were in a fundamentally different structure not only had some of the technologies that we have started to Tinker with 30 years ago really started to come of age but the availability of capital in that environment was immense know everyone here in New York thinks of 2007 is a financial crash and it was but it happened in the environment of the most oversupply Capital markets in human history we got the Baby Boomers preparing for retirement that got a lot of spare Capel that they're investing trying to get that mythical extra 1% of return that drove interest rates and borrowing cost
00:16:16what's the lowest ever part of that eventually manifested as a subprime crisis which is no good but it meant that Capital was available for absolutely anything and it didn't have to have a freighter for turn it that time and Tru shell so the idea of drilling down a mile and then maybe and then turning your drill bit and going horizontally 600 feet now you got to admit that doesn't sound very cost-effective and it's not but in an environment where 0% return has not seen as a negative and where the capital is always going to be available you can start doing and you get a little crew don't get a little natural gas but the more you do it the better you get so 600 feet turn into a thousand feet turn into 2000 feet turn into 6000 ft today you can have laterals going through four miles and that's assuming you're only really one lateral and some of these Wells you're getting 30
00:17:09so the technology has now advance from the point where it's not profitable at $100 Barrel to it being marginally profitable at $35 a barrel which means it by the end of next year the US Shale industry going to be cost-competitive with Saudi Arabia and that will make the United States she'll industry the lowest cost producer on the planet
00:17:36that is something that we are only now starting to kind of get our mind around it wasn't that long ago that we were a few coil ago and now it's been already the largest producer of natural gas the largest producer of crude and the largest exporter of refined product on the planet and the trend lines there are going vertical but what about the difference between light and heavy crudes my understanding is that the US has already I guess an exporter of light crude you know how heavy is obviously the input used in a whole bunch of functions and that where we are lighter on have your crew production so true Independence would require like a complete stack to talk about the difference between light and heavy light crude is about the consistency of water to nail polish and it's super super thin it's not dark and it's not exactly clear but there's not a lot of color to it and you can use it to make things like gasoline a lot of high-end products is not that it's bad
00:18:36directions to Global crude stream has been going for decades after and the technology to tap much less explain so all the lights. Was about first we moved in the direction of heavy heavy stuff is thick with things like Mercury and sulfur its think it's gooey some of the really heavy stuff is actually a solid at room temperature and stuff is just difficult to move difficult to produce difficult to process now the United States being the most heavily capitalize system in the world looks at this and by the United States I mean American refiners like okay well if the light crude is selling at a premium we've got the technology in the capital to develop refineries that can deal with stuff that's not ideal so we started in the mid-1970s circuit ruling our entire refining base to run in the thick crappy stuff because we knew that that was the direction that Global oil was going and Rochelle the reason that heavy crude is heavy is beef
00:19:36percolates to the rock formation and pics of contaminants as it goes eventually it gets to a place where pools behind a Caprock and that's where you kind of get your gushers shell crew doesn't work that way it's trapped at almost the microscopic level within the rock formation and you have to drill horizontally in fact the rock just before it to get out so when it comes out it's never been contaminated it's basically infant oil if you want to think of it that way so all of a sudden the United States has this refining base that is designed for the crappiest crude in the world which it buys at a discount yet we're producing some of the best quality fruit in the world and you got that split so the United States tends to export the light stuff import the heavy stuff and make abs of money on the Arbitrage between the two so in an ideal system this we continue
00:20:25Buy Low sell High minutes kind of the whole point right as order gives way to disorder and Global Transport breaks down that's going to be less possible that will still be able to take heavy crude from places like Canada and assuming they don't completely implode Venezuela but most of the world's other heavy crude is going to be in a different Hemisphere and the access is going to be lost so we are going to have to dumb down a refined know every refinery in America over the course of the last five years has worked steadily and diligently to change their preferred mix or to a different facilities to their existing Refinery so they can process a greater proportion of the light sweet stuff that process is not complete will not be complete for at least a few more years unless things dramatically change and they have to accelerate that but even in the worst-case scenario, let's assume that the disorder starts tomorrow and then imported extra hemispheric heavy crude stop you could make that switch
00:21:2518 months if you wanted to if you really needed to so we are looking at a transition period a year in the United States that may have so few bumps in it but imagine what happens everywhere else we're looking at the United States net exporter of crude in about a year and has the capacity to not even need to tap the broader global system in a year and a half so we might have some tightness but it's not going to be that bad everyone else just have to figure out how to do without one of the things reading your work that I thought about early and often was so we study Mark in history as much as we can and obviously think history is a good guy. He's not a perfect guy but a good guy to the Future in terms of what to expect and one of the things I realize that the vast majority of data we have on specific country or Regional Equity markets Falls in this. That you would call the global order and so I always worried look at historical data about data loading you into this false sense of security and so I left him really spend a lot of time on what this disorder looks like so for me
00:22:25towards that stage let's assume that it happens and that you're right I will talk about recent Bayview you might be wrong but as soon as it happens and it's right what is that look like one of the pieces that us has American should be aware of its business people as investors Etc walk us through the disorder in a system right now where Global Norm is stability it's not normal that's just normal in our lifetimes if you go back to the world before 1946 the world was not a single Financial space direct Arbitrage among the various markets was thin to non-existent and markets not to mention countries went to zero often all the time we have no way to process that just think about something simple mean air quotes hear the end of the European Union the European Union is an inch
00:23:25tuition that is 100% dependent upon the global order without American strategic largesse and access to the global market the Europeans cannot hold together as a single entity because they can't defend themselves they start competing in that is the end of for example the Eurozone what does that do all look at southern Europe everybody knows their indebted everybody knows their indebted in Euros do you really think they're going to keep a northern European dominated currency when the system ends so then the question becomes what are all these loans denominated in so if you're in Italy do you want to keep pain in your eyes when your own currencies devalue a which means that you will defy fault which means at the northern European banking structures will go to zero or do you pay in lira in which case
00:24:09the northern European banking structures go to zero out of this in which integration which is dependent upon American involvement continues and the more integrated you have become the more you have advanced under these Global structures the greater the distance you have to fall now that the areas that are likely going to experience the greatest disruption are in those zones of experience the greatest growth that's kind of the frontier between the European Union in the Russian system that's the Persian Gulf and that's the Northeast Asian core those are the areas that until the global order had always been laggards in terms of economic development financial progress in those the areas which has resulted the biggest bass effect in terms of expanding out of your system at all no one whines it is it fair to classify these countries are effective Break Stuff in a couple major variables for one would be like the percent of GDP that's not exports or something like this that's a good measure it be its back
00:25:09the original the original thing about do they check the boxes of energy dependence agricultural dependents Etc is that going to how you think how you start to break Hunt Country normally draw the net a little bit broader cuz I don't usually speak to him exclusively Financial audience look for countries that have the propensity and preferably the experience in maintaining their own continuities without outside assistance so for example France is on the extreme Western end of Europe it has never integrated agree with the rest of the European structures that say the Germans have and they've got an independent military capacity an independent food supply system an independent energy Supply system so I don't mean to suggest the French aren't going to suffer significantly when the European system cracks but nothing compared to what happens to Germany or Poland Germany is like a great case obviously because first of all just fascinating history and Country like the highs the lows talk about
00:26:09hyperinflation in things like this but right now you think of Germany as maybe the PowerHouse of Europe for the production standpoint just the kind of the Renaissance that they've undergone I guess really since World War II that is pretty remarkable to talk about what what this might look like from the say the German perspective which I think of you pulled a random sample of the audience they might say Germany is probably in a pretty good position but I think you think the opposite so talk about German journey is the quintessential example of a country that can Thrive under the global order because the global order remove the need for the Germans to be well to be blunt German it's like all of a sudden up a fight for anything everything that they fought for in World War marketaxess and research have to worry about strategy or military tactics at all care of all of that and they can just focus all of their attention on manufacturing and lo and behold they kick some serious ass
00:27:09what's the supply chain system spread throughout a dozen countries in Europe their military system is a joke it's it's arguable that they don't even have a navy and Airforce right now
00:27:22and their energy comes from Russia from the Middle East very little of it from within Europe itself so the Germans in a day have to go from being basically Scandinavia socialist to be in German again and will Durant or something you know that the norm through history is just constant war and in a mention Germans interest in may be going to or partially to access resources and strategic like land positions what's going to happen in the world in your view in this coming era of u.s. I guess absenteeism with less of a global order that manifest as more physical conflict and if so of what variety because obviously the technology of War has changed so much whether its nuclear weapons were just crazier and crazier Technology For Fighting maybe less infantry I'm curious how you think about the coming World stage and physical conflict it's semi that's early,
00:28:22ask questions let me start with United States so if United States is not a significant trading Nation it was one of the few places that has the financial wherewithal in the technological wherewithal to really move to the next generation of warfare now because of the the bad taste in our mouths in the Strategic hangover of the Middle Eastern conflicts I do not expect the United States to be involved in any significant large-scale infantry driven Wars for the next 15-20 years we're just we're just done that doesn't mean the United States won't play favorites that doesn't mean the United States won't get involved but it does mean you're not going to see a lot of boots on the ground so a lot more special forces a lot more drone Warfare yacht Naples fight but not what we have come to think of it as the wars of the last 20 years so I seen I would say it's everywhere else wow it's not exactly a struggle of all against all but they're literally is not enough to go around and without supplies for this or that material or with markets Beyond the Horizon being available what is close by is simp
00:29:22not in the right proportions and quantities weather that happens to be you lithium or steel or oil or natural gas or really anything so you'll get conflicts over that now that will manifest as dozens of brushfire Wars most of which are Petty and small and highly localized you also have the wars of national cinegration like we've seen in Syria is going to be a lot more of that sort of stuff I can watch Grease very closely if you want to see what happens in the first world country when that goes down the real globe-spanning wars the ones with real impact probably going to be three the first is probably going to be between the Russians and the Europeans the Russians are literally dying out as a people and they see an expansion to something more or less similar to the road soviet-era boundaries being a far more defensible position in the rain right now and they're correct that time moving West moving West up to at least the frontier Poland maybe all the way to Warsaw doing that means the absorption of
00:30:2211 different countries half of which happened to be in NATO and I'll need to still matter that would be a problem for the Russians but it really doesn't so you know there's that opportunity that knocks a lot of oil offline because Siberian crude can Xfinity stop not so much in terms of quality but in terms of production most of it comes out of the permafrost and if you get Russian forces moving West you can count on all the pipelines that send the crew to WorldMark getting shut down with her out of military Stryker just transport disruption will freeze in the winter you can only drill in the winter so the last time this happened with the Soviet breakdown it took about 7 million barrels of crude offline and that was without any shooting so expect at least that magnitude of disruption or number two is probably going to be in the Persian Gulf Ron versus Saudi Arabia you remove the American these are two countries that are quite willing to throw everyone else in the meat grinder in their quest for regional Supremacy or in this very strange
00:31:22and right now we're Ron has become the country of order in the Middle East they've basically one and now they're kind of like the dog that caught the car they just don't know what to do the Saudis strategies basically to burn the whole place down because if the entire Middle East is on fire there on the other side of a desert so we now are at least the Trump Administration for now is a light against the country that is trying to hold up some sort of civilization and allied with the country that wants to burn civilization down you know this is not a sustainable position for the Middle East this is not a single position for United States but this is creepy happened to Pete right now no matter how that conflict goes energies going to go offline whether it's a rainy and Kuwaiti araki Saudi all of the above and that just leaves Northeast Asia now the North East Asians imported almost all of their crew from the Persian Gulf there's just nowhere near enough production locally you take all of the Asian production put together it's only about a quarter what they actually need
00:32:23so you get the Japanese the Koreans the Taiwanese the Chinese sailing their ships to the Persian Gulf picking sides and a centuries-old blood Feud that is turned into a knife fight loading the crude and sells and then shipping at home and probably rating each other along the way those three conflicts are nothing less than the end of the world as we know that's the end of global finance and Global energy and Global agriculture in global Shipping it what are the set of work that I've just been fascinated by is two guys on rossling and a guy named Max Roser who's operating today and the thrust of their work is this like an extra bold March toward higher quality of life in the world living by technology-driven by in all sorts of different things but if you look at anything from mortality rate or poverty levels or literacy rates like everything just looks in this amazing sort of exponential Mark the order has done that because I created a global continuity in global economies of scale we have allowed the unleashing of creativity of the human race on a scale
00:33:23we could even have imagined six seven eight years ago and you think that this will unwind that it has trouble March they're absolutely right about everything but it's based upon a broken now everything that I've said it doesn't end but instead of having a single unified Global structure you get a series of regional structures some like in the Western Hemisphere will probably broadly continue along this path because you're not going to see that kind of disruption that's not trade dependence on export-dependent it's financially self-sufficient and Vac with global Capital flight today the money come to the United States you just admit it's almost have seen so the underpinnings of these advances should continue in the Western Hemisphere holding up the roof not so much the amount of backsliding there is going to be catastrophic things you've talked about me even very scary sounding things like Fannin for example make me wonder like so I understand certainly the reasons why the US
00:34:23has less of an interest in Global Security in the global order because of theirs are our self-sufficiency but at some stage is there precipitant that makes the US just re-engage because this is just an awful outcome it is definitely not open from the humanitarian perspective from a you know like a everything so transparent now I think the ability to to weave a narrative around what we should do politically or or economically or with our military it's easier than ever right trunk of a demonstrative this through Twitter and elsewhere so what might reverse this very Grim Global Outlook a shorter-term the tolerance of the US political system for Destruction globally is very high we are entering a. It's relatively narcissistic we've been here before it doesn't last forever but it will last for at least a decade probably two maybe three and during that time you should not expect to see any significant American intervention in The Wider world
00:35:23mentoring purposes and honestly not even for strategic purposes American strategic policy about preventing the rise of any single one alter bad guy whether that's the British Empire Nazi Germany or the Soviet Union there's nothing like that on the horizon for the Next Generation so you will see the United States participating in these little baby surgical tactical interventions but not much, humanitarian scale and less it leads to some sort of impact upon some American Community weather that is geographic in the terms of the town or a sliver the political system I really don't see it happening at least 20 years during that time you have accurately pointed out that we're going to still be aware and so you will get slivers of American communities who will see something that they don't like and they just take off and see if they can do something about it I we've done this before by the late 1800s early 1900s we call the Dollar Diplomacy because you had Americans with
00:36:23they were in business or religious groups would go out and basically be the face of America without any American government leadership at all now as soon as you put Americans abroad should trouble the u.s. Navy rights to the rescue and that can lead to an intervention but that is a very different sort of intervention then say intervening to help with food distribution for the famine so this is the sort of Dollar Diplomacy it will be a dominant theme in American policy but don't expect it to do a lot of good if that's what you're after no longer term would sort of won't last forever eventually there will be winners in these conflicts and eventually new Regional Powers will arise if I had to be a betting man I'd say that the four countries that look to come out of this looking the best or Japan France turkey and Argentina and eventually they are likely to reach a point in consolidation and influence that the United States going to take notice and it
00:37:23that point a generation from now United States will probably re-engaged the question will be does this happen on a gradual slow enough time. That the Americans can assimilate the changes and so engaging maybe constructive way or the Turks of the French or somebody else do something that the Americans perceived as a threat in which case we get more than me jerk American reaction that is much more disruptive now the shower so it's not like you're going to see a catastrophic civilization anymore or anything like that this is not World War II this is not World War 1 probably not even something like Korea but it really matters whether or not the Americans engage out of opportunity for a sphere whose Frontier you say Japan it's a good excuse to talk about demographic specifically which we really haven't touched all that much so far looks more like turkey memory serves as a great demographics I can feel young population Japan is the poster child for more adult
00:38:23result in baby diapers and then also just from a natural resource standpoint of questioning on that so so what about Japan do you believe is well positioned for so you're absolutely right about Japan from a demographic in a resource .2 fuel consumption has stalled and it's shifting towards collapse they have to be basically import every rometty really ever use however it's an island nation and like all island nations it's gotten pretty good at it maybe I would argue that today in Japan still has the second most powerful Long Reach Navy as in the world now if you were to sail the Japanese Navy against the Chinese Navy in the East Asian theater the Japanese were wrecked the Chinese have a better Airforce I've got better cruise missiles but only 30 Chinese ships can operate a thousand miles for sure where is pretty much all the Japanese ships can sew in any conflict the Japanese basically don't even say on the general direction of China will go to like I don't know Singapore and sink anything with Chinese have on the ocean and then that's the end of China's import export system along with all of their
00:39:23so in a fight the Japanese in Leicester utterly incompetent win and win easily will that maybe it allows a lot of options it means that they can secure their own Supply change whether it's is southeast Asia or even better yet the Western Hemisphere so the tools that they have had to develop in order to maintain any sort of local system just happened to double as the tools that are perfect in order to survive in the air without the Americans providing strategic OverWatch so that just leaves the demographic question this isn't a new problem the Japanese have seen their population aging and shrinking since the 1960s arguably since I started to industrialize around 1900
00:40:04which means of the Japanese have always worked on consolidating the footprint they've had to build up rather than out is that the geography it's all about the value added their the world leader in robotics for good reason and so we have seen Japan despite ever fewer working-age individuals I've seen their production continue to rise and when they have their crash back in 1989 another country really hasn't grown very much since then they single digit percentages that hit their export income that hit their export system overall and I did not get the domestic market so they are actually instead of one of the world's most exposed countries one of the least expose Olivia in terms of major countries that are less involved in the world in terms of economics United States at the top of the list Japan's number 3 bus over to Brazil
00:41:04history that's gone through a Renaissance and I'm curious to take your lens of their demographics and and Global dependence and waterways and arable land all these things and applied at length to China so what would you be there will it start with the arable land you know the US Midwest is perfect perfect perfect the northern Chinese Bread Basket is about 15% decides the Midwest and their population four times as large and you can imagine that is not working very well between riotous urbanization climate change advancing of the desert in northern China and water shortages the breadbasket is basically. Of Not So Slow Motion collapse they only have one River that's navigable that's in the center of the country which is an area is sharply politically distinct from the northern Hans on the Dominate the political system and then the south is separated by a series of mountains and tropical zones from everybody else so it's really hard to keep this thing together they've achieved by
00:42:04which of the following three-part strategy number one is beat the crap out of anyone who ever steps out of line it's National Security State for internal reasons not external reasons number to the following Nationwide Financial strategies it's kind of like Enron and subprime where it's all about the throughput it doesn't really matter if productivity is involved that generates a lot of bad debt now here in the United States is giving a scope here so subprime hit about 3% of the American Mortgage Market which came out to dud Financial assets that were less than 1% of GDP
00:42:42Bishop who you're asking within the Chinese system they're already north of 70% and the economic sectors that are most Overexposed Finance obviously culture so when they finally after adjustment they don't just face a meltdown subprime style in every economic sub-sector at once they also have a family problem which will among other things lead to a local split within the system so that speech to PS3 is the global system Nixon went to China for good reason he basically inducted maoist China into the global order in order to buy them is a life against the Soviets that only really started in 1980 and it only really got going in 1990 so the entirety of the Chinese success story the entirety of the panda boom happened during the most internationally abnormal. In human history and in that time the Chinese groovy the world's second-largest economy but also the most over
00:43:42fertilized over financed Overexposed over-leveraged economy in world history of course this is going to end the question on the backside is not will China survive a fall it won't the question is What Becomes of the Asian power balances after China's fall fast as you mentioned are all quite distinct in the one that thought that was Argentina so maybe that's not the one I didn't expect talk to that store and imagining is a lot to do with agriculture there is one of the world's handful of zones and actually has never will waterways that directly over late arable land it's kind of like a mini Midwest I just about a third of the size the rivers basically go up to Argentina's borders with Brazil and that's where the Nautica Billy stops so all of the good stuff is on the Argentine side Argentina's not tropical like Brazil so they did a lot lower input cost for all the rag or culture it makes it a lot easier to raise the capital locally in order
00:44:42generate a manufacturing-based they've done all the stuff in the past now Argentina is also a good warning case from the pronoun error on the argentine's basically woke up every morning and they're like okay we got this perfect setup how can we break it right after 90 years you end up with something less like the United States more like Argentina but if you look forward to the world we're going to wear rule of law breaks down we're International Commerce grinds to a halt or Finance is hard to come by you know what the argentine's for them that's just an average Tuesday so either they've got the perfect geography and we'll have domestic reset like we have in the current government and they will Thrive for decades to come or the rest of the world breaks down and they just are more familiar working in that sort of environment either way the future of Argentina looks really bright and the first stage of that will basically be the argentine's dominating the border states of Paraguay Uruguay in Bolivia
00:45:38second stage of starting to peel off large sections of Southern Brazil itself and this is in essence for those of you who know your Latin American history a repeat of what the argentine's in the Brazilians did in the early years of Independence this time the argentines are going to win who actually talk more about the rest of world unless about say they like the US Canada and Mexico which is I think I've been sort of an interesting collection of countries obviously physically talk about that the relationships there and whether or not in this this coming year in review of absenteeism Canada and Mexico are effectively like a surrogate part of of the US that's exactly what it's going to be one of the big concerns that I had about the Trump Administration in the early months was what was going to happen in there because unlike our trade arrangements with everyone else in the world which were largely driven by strategy and so we were willing to sacrifice economics in order to get the countries on board the NAFTA Accord is really the only major trade to the United States has it
00:46:38actually based on the numbers and so if NAFTA was to go away the United States would actually suffer recession give me the rest of the global structure could go to hell in the United States might not even noticed but Canada and Mexico your country is it really matter now things are getting really interesting with those talks so when the Trump Administration was originally interfacing with the Mexicans are Mexicans didn't want to give anything and then punish party lost the election in Lopez obrador came in and Lopez obrador it well I would not consider very good at math I mean he's basically the Mexican Bernie Sanders in many ways basically realize that he was a populist kind of in the same brand as Donald Trump and the last thing that he wanted his terms I'm self as a domestic renewal guy can like Clinton last time that he wanted was to be in a pissing contest with Trump for his first two years so he reached out to Pena during that lame duck. He reach out the Trap and said you know if you guys can figure out what's next
00:47:35what nap tattoo looks like I'll get it ratified so far he's a man of his word and so we have a deal with Mexico
00:47:44open can of the things are just hilarious so everything about Canadian foreign policy is rooted in the Cold War if you look at a polar projection of the earth you'll notice that Canada is on all the flight paths from for icbm's from Soviet Union to the United States because of that the Canadians during the Cold War could have been Free Riders and security terms to their credit they were not but they would use that leverage to get concessions out of the United States on economic deals so Canada during the Cold War would always get just a little bit more and a lot of times those deals had to do was something that was happening internally in Canada so there's always a lot of quebecois fingers in that pot
00:48:28where's over Trump the first American President to look at the world in a different light probably more accurate like considering the day
00:48:36but it takes a while for the bureaucracy and policy to catch up so Canada was always thinking that we don't have to give anything cuz we're in the special position
00:48:46sleep on every negotiating point they took a hard line if anything they were looking for more concessions out of this for negotiation which of course is cheese Trump off and then all of a sudden team Trump has a deal with Mexico and they just go up and say look we got a deal to country that matters we got a deal with the country that has demographic growth that is complementary to our manufacturing system rather than competitive there the country the future you are not. You know our terms take it or leave it that refocused mines and it only took a few days then for the Canadiens to finally cave they are very very lucky that team did not ask for more because they would have had to give more
00:49:25but that leaves us with a more or less intact North American Market that's already 40% of the American Trade portfolio that you throw in a couple of other countries that are undoubtedly going to work out and break the United States as way korea-japan United Kingdom you're at the vast majority of the American Trade portfolio. That's that's enough it's obviously from everything you said it's clear that you think the US has enormous leverage in basically every relationship right and so just love to spend a minute or two on that the quote-unquote trade Wars that are ongoing and things like Terrace and get your view on kind of where these things are headed are these long-term stories are these quick going to be quick to resolve I'm actually think about these ideas or it will go through all the normal pain and Agony in Congress But ultimately I think it's going to go through how to make a problem in this country and in Mexico Canada is a separate issue but we can do that later if you'd like Japan talks are underway
00:50:25will be completed this year because the Japanese don't have a lot of room to go the Japanese realize that now that the Americans have a deal with Canada and Mexico and Korea that's four of their five biggest trade partners are already integrating into a new post order system it's either get on board or are don't and they're getting on board Britain has nowhere to turn post brexit they're going to have a depression regardless this is always going to be a hard crash out and United States is the only country that can help cushion that and that's assuming the global order holds School Board a break so it's really nothing else so those deals are easy to be wrapped up this year those deals will be ratified probably early next year and that's enough for the United States which means it any other trade talk isn't about the money
00:51:15and so instead of the United States sacrificing economic access in order to achieve a security goal the United States now doesn't have to sacrifice anything because the other side is the side that actually need something out of this and we've seen the beginning of this with Korea and Japan and with Canada and it hasn't really sunk in everywhere else except for maybe China that this is the new rules of the game and this is this is not Trump trump is just the earliest least sophisticated iteration of what is going to be the new Norm in American foreign policy and for Trump specifically you will notice that in the deals that have been penned so far that Automotive steel and aluminum tariffs are not included those are now hammers that the United States can use in any bilateral negotiation on any topic that it wants
00:52:11so it's not so much the Terrace of The New Normal is just the tariffs of the new tool that the US will use whenever she feels like it talk about the US political system so you've mentioned I think a lot of what would it feel about your work is many things are sort of laid in into the picture already and become almost inevitabilities and so you mentioned that maybe under Hillary Clinton a lot of the same stuff would be happening maybe in very different order or style or time. But that the the Seas were in place for a lot of overseeing regardless of who the leader is I'm so taking that same sort of you and looking forward whether it's looking at Trump's second term or or some other president that's going to beat him what are the important major features of the US political system right now obviously it seems I'm not actively try to avoid but I can't help myself with you so from the cheap seats it. Was he looks like quite the cauldron right now of opposing ideas of Shifting basis so what's your what's your take on the US political system
00:53:11argue that all of The Angst and anger and fire and fury that were seen in Washington right now is actually really good sign every generation or to the American political system convulses dissolves reforms and we are in that process of transition right now we're just doing it with social media big events that happened in the past post-war reconstruction the War of 1812 the Great Depression all of these trigger to break down in the bipartisan networks and the parties that we know as Democrats and Republicans have not always existed and they certainly not existed with this alignment of factions
00:53:46so if you want to go back to the last big upheaval that was the Great Depression that was World War II back then the Democratic party was the party of big business and the Republican party is the party of African-Americans faced change start with that start with an understanding that the parties that we know are not permanent we have had the collapse of the the Cold War system big change we've had the post-cold war boom big change now we're having the collapse of the global order a big change of course we were going to have another political reorganization we're going through that right now it's just that are 24 hour while 24-second new cycle makes it a lot louder and more aggravated than it has been in times past but this is not new so what we're seeing is a complete disintegration of the old party structures on the left and the right and the factions that make up those parties are casting around looking for issues that might allow them to be the nucleus of whatever comes next so for example
00:54:46on the Republican side Donald Trump broadly considers the business Community the National Security community and the fiscal conservatives to be as ideological foes and he is systematically ejected all of them from his administration and the midterm elections were not notable for how well the Democrats did my opinion but for how badly the fiscal conservative National Security concern is a business conservatives that they were basically ejected wholesale from Congress and Trump's version of Republicans rose up to take their spots on the Democratic side the unions are gone they're not Democrats anymore they are a fully-fledged members of the Trump Coalition so Trump is actually fairly Advanced and setting up the post Republican party whether it's still called Republicans when this is all said and done who knows whether or not it sticks who knows whether that last Trump who knows these Transmissions usually there's a lot of room for the
00:55:47what that means for us as a country is we don't even have the political structure that's necessary to have a conversation about the big issues right now we can scream at each other social media is great for that but it's not good for a structured discussion about what we actually want and so we will get people like Cortez talking about the green New Deal and we let people like Ted Cruz talk about whatever crazy-ass I did he's got next but but we're not going to have much constructive to say to one another until we get the framework of whatever these new parties happen to be what do you think those most important policy issues are so it would say that there is some this emerges what what are the most pressing issues where if handled well would be best for the country while you're looking internationally the breakup of the order in the start of this disorder is a wildly rare opportunity United States has the opportunity to figure out what the international agenda is and what the international structure is and whatever decisions we make in the next 5 years will stick for the remainder of the century
00:56:47and very often and utterly incapable of even having the conversation much less coming up with a decision so wasted opportunity domestically the Baby Boomers are the biggest retirement this country has ever seen as a percentage of the population of the largest population we've ever had and the transition of them from taxpayers to text acres is how we manage that will determine the tenor of the American economy for the next 30 Years the kicker is is that while our baby boomers are big group relative to their peers International are actually fairly small and that's because our baby boomers had kids we know them is the Millennials and while we can talk till we're blue in the face about how they're all waste of skin they exist
00:57:36and they don't have books and which means that they are consuming now that's good for the economy and will be investing later and that's good for the economy but there are no German Millennials are Italian Millennials or Japanese or Chinese Millennials everybody else basically stop having kids in 1980
00:57:55so we are the world's largest financial consumption power now and in just a decade or two we're going to be the world's only consumption and financial power so how do we manage this transition and we get through this tight spot the snake swallowing the watermelon all that and that's important
00:58:12what were the only country with an opportunity to get it through in one piece so we can make evolutionary changes without having to have a complete break in our system that gives us an opportunity if we manage that process right to repair capital structure to get ahead of the debt do all kinds of things that other countries can't even dream of imperious your take on us infrastructure so this is something that I think naturally weekly you talk about in your books T the Mississippi water weigh as may be the most advantaged set of water in the world cuz you can move things so much cheaper through the various Mississippi waterways we at one point had an amazing infrastructure system I think it like Eisenhower and Interstate System what's your view on American and maybe even Global infrastructure and and that the role that that place in the future but it's also a massive opportunity building roads not hard at all you have to do is apply the money in as soon as you do that economic growth comes from it book from the construction what happens in the back side so I don't see this is
00:59:12drop my see this is an opportunity second the Waterway structure so the greater Mississippi is about 13,000 miles of navigable waterway that is more than the combined systems of the rest of the planet now most of the locks on our system that allowed to be navigable are in excess of 60 years old and a scary proportion of them over a century-old replacing all of them wholesale every little bit would cost only about two hundred billion dollars so in terms of cost-benefit that's cheap now if we're going to do that and I recommend that we do my first thing we've got to do with a peeler at least heavily Amanda Jones Act of 1920 which basically says that any cargo that a ship between any two ports must be on a vessel that is American-owned captained crude and built
00:59:59we don't require that for any other transport method we have in this country only for the one that gives us a massive geopolitical Advantage which is stupid
01:00:10so you change that and the cost of Transport internally the United States of plummets it also takes a lot of trucks off the road which will that make the rest of the infrastructure system last longer so there's like three there's no downside there unless you happen to be in organized labor you see the handful of jobs that remained an American shipping is sacrosanct but again this is the only transport sector that we do this in and it's outlived its usefulness century ago as you look at the world what today are the most interesting new technologies that you're tracking this no technological innovation has been a part of a lot of the stories that you believe jail is one great example of what are the most important you know where there's military regular culture energy any anything that you you're watching carefully now I would say that most of it comes down to how the technological revolutions the digital Revolution have applied to industries that we don't think of very much so does it improve things like supply chain and Manufacturing processes certainly and I don't mean to denigrate that but I let me give you two that most people just
01:01:10think of a number one shipping like you know until very recently we were still using paper so the digitization of Customs clearance by itself is enough to reduce overall shipping cost by 15% and in a world where shipping costs are about to Skyrocket that's Monumental is fully digitizing that system of information transfer for goods is great even more transformative is what is about to happen with agriculture so we all worry about things like facial recognition and what that means for privacy while the computer is don't care if it's a face computers could do it for plants now so what we're seeing what the new combines are the ability of a farmer to load up a combine with herbicides fungicides pesticides fertilizer all at once
01:01:57run it automated through a field and the cameras on the Machinery will take photos of each individual plant and identify whether it's a weed a crop that supposed to be there and if it is a crap it's supposed to be there whether it's healthier what it needs and then it gives it a little jolt of whatever is appropriate herbicide if it happens to be a weed pesticide for fertilizer what happens to a plant that maybe it'll help which means that with one pass you can do the equivalent of 5 passes but with one-tenth the chemical you think we are on the verge of not only agriculture production increasing by a factor of two or three within the next decade but of conventional farming turning into conventional gardening and that means the conventional farming will have a lower pollution rating and afar loader carbon footprint than anything that's happening in the organic world
01:02:57last kind of series of questions is around just things that you are watching most closely some sort of like technology before we started a sack how do you how do you do your research you got your trying to make sense of this global system you've arrived at obviously major levers that drive history and therefore probably likely Drive the future as well talk a little bit about that research system like what what what are the information sources that matter most to you what's most enduring people that are interested in this stuff how do you begin to tackle the wealth of information you mentioned media is one example of you take there cuz it sounds kind of interesting useful so it's started at the end of the Cold War when we started to get in the digital Revolution it's very early stages it used to be that every major media outlet and most even Regional newspapers would maintain for an office until you have Americans living abroad writing about the things that were happening at home
01:03:54email comes along also you don't need as many people abroad check messages come along and also you don't need anybody I brought you just send him a twink the people abroad when you need them and they can send back the messages that turn into story well as just got better and better and more efficient eventually every media Outlet close all of their foreign offices and they might have some headline reporter like Amanpour who goes out in Globe Trot out there which meant that the volume and quality lapsed and pretty soon that turn into the quality and reporting of domestic stuff collapsed and so the proportion of actual news versus opinion shifted and now we're in an opinion 24-second new cycle
01:04:42that's definitely hit my world because I have gone from being able to tap dozens if not hundreds of thousands of sources at any given point to really there only being two had a half doesn't. If you're looking for something that covers international news in a meaningful way if there is nothing left in the United States with the possible exception of Bloomberg about 5 years ago they decided they wanted to break into the general news space but then they had an editorial change about two years ago and they kind of backed away from that they're still by far the best of the United States but they're not what they used to be but the same thing has happened with Donald Trump press and with a DW and everybody else so the only real international coverage it is any good anymore is Al Jazeera and Chamberlain al-jazeera Furnishings in the Middle East so it's ironically you have to go to the Middle East to get news about the rest of the world is not Middle East China xinhua is okay so long as it doesn't deal with China or do you know
01:05:42States and if you speak French friends one is pretty good but that's about it so basically you have to hunt and pack for local sourcing luckily the digital Revolution helps that quite a bit you can go to your own she bitching when you're interested in but there just is not much any longer at any anything else that we've missed in terms of major topics I know you're ready another book we talked about some of the countries they going to be writing about Japan turkey Argentina France anything else major in that book that that you're really honed in on right now we have about which countries are the countries of the future and why they're not and then which one should be so we take apart Germany and China and Brazil
01:06:30I'm sure why these are not countries that would be taken seriously a decade from now instead of looking at the countries that are all I think it is conversations been chopped full of food for thought for investors are we didn't talk about Capital markets all that much but I think the the notion that it's possible on Muni review very likely that the future looks quite a bit different than the past for which we have the majority of our data that we base our conclusions off of is just great food for thought so I appreciate everything the closing question that I asked everybody is for the kind of thing that anyone's ever done for them I've been very fortunate so I don't know if I can narrow it down to Just One Small Town Iowa who leads an international life now that could not have happened without my parents who were teachers without my high school guidance counselor who got me out of some very sticky situations without some of the college professors that made it all possible without rotary he gave me my first scholarship to travel internationally without my former colleagues at Stratford who beat the crap out of every idea I've ever had it made them stronger
01:07:29I know it's a little cliche to say it takes a village but it really did take a village to raise this idiot was wondering why I actually have to ask one more question which is given the amount of probably travel that you've done and just investigation into places around the world that you've done your mission live in New Zealand you kind of had this really interesting International life what are some of your favorite places that you've been that you would recommend people spend some time but oh my God everything every free motion you have about New Zealand is wrong it is so much better than what you're thinking the best months to go are February cuz most of the tourists have left home and most of the kiwis have gone back to work or school so you can have it yourself to a degree yeah it's it's an unbelievable by side if I second that how about one more Alberta Canada is as different from the rest of Canada as Texas is from the rest of the United States that when I say that in a good way although I will warn you now only go in the winter if you are a skier cuz God damn it's cold
01:08:29but it's a beautiful place Beautiful People wonderfully bizarre economy by any modern standards well thanks so much for everything again this is been a fascinating conversation everyone Patrick here again to find more episodes of invest like the best to go to investors Field Guide. Com forward podcast if you're a book lover you can also sign up for my book club at investors Field Guide. Com book club after you sign up to receive a full investor curriculum right away and then three to four suggestions of new books every month you can also follow me on Twitter at Patrick underscore oshag o s h a g if you enjoy the show please leave a quick review for us on iTunes which will help more people discover invest like the best thanks so much for listening

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