ABOUT THIS EPISODE

My guest this week is with Annie Duke, and the topic of our discussion is how to improve decision making.

We break decisions down into their component parts: values, beliefs, decisions, randomness, and outcomes. After diving into each, we discuss how to make better decisions, how to work in group settings, and how to harness power of tribes and identity to improve our behavior.

Annie has thought about this as much as anyone, and her various tricks for getting us to think in probabilities and to stop evaluating decisions based on outcomes that have been tainted by randomness will be useful for anyone listening.

Please enjoy.

For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.

Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub.

Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag

 

Show Notes

1:23 - (First Question) – Why people don’t take the best investing advice

2:11 – Investing tribes

            4:21Jay Van Bavel twitter

6:34 – Rule setting as a way of crafting an investment strategy

11:13 – How much control do we have in choosing our values  

15:52 – Anatomy of a decision

19:28 – Her concept of resulting

26:47 -  How beliefs impact your decision making

34:28 – Tact’s for making the best decision

42:40 – Ego and decision making

47:06 – People who are exceptional at changing their decision making

48:18 – How often do people who change their decision making, stick with the rules of the game

            50:07 Finite and Infinite Games

50:28 – Psychology of making decision that involves other people

59:20 -  Never close doors on other people

1:01:57 – Best decision that Annie made

1:04:24 – Kindest thing anyone has done for Annie

 

Learn More

For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast

Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub

Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag

English
United States

TRANSCRIPT

00:00:00everyone on Patrick O'Shaughnessy and this is invest like the best this show is an open-ended exploration of markets ideas method stories end of strategies that will help you better invest both your time and your money you can learn more and stay up-to-date and investors Field Guide. Com
00:00:22Patrick O'Shaughnessy is the CEO of a Shaughnessy Asset Management all opinions expressed by Patrick and podcast guests are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of a Chauncy Asset Management this podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for investment decisions clients of a Shaughnessy Asset Management May maintain positions and the Securities discussed in this podcast values beliefs the randomness and outcomes after diving into each we discuss how to make better decisions how to work in group settings and how to harness the power of tribes and identity to improve our Behavior has thought about this topic as much as anyone in her methods for getting us to think in probabilities and evaluating decisions based on outcomes tainted by Randomness will be useful for anyone listening please enjoy
00:01:22what is the meaning I think about there's so much information out there we know what's right to do so we can look across lots and lots and lots of data and say for the average person who's investing what's the best thing for them to do and we know don't be an active investor put your money in walk away and let it sit and we know that that's true but what's interesting about that is it despite the fact that that information is readily available that people know it people don't do it I'm so the question I'm always trying to think about is why and I think about it and she weighs 1 is how much are we communicating with people in a way that activates identity and tribe in a really positive and good way and then how are we thinking about what the rules of the game are so I'm a tribe side I feel like tribe gets a very bad rap not surprisingly because we see it in the political context all the time that people are fighting with each other so we get this idea that like activating identity is like really bad really just
00:02:22and obviously you know you look at the political Arena and you can see that sometimes that's true but it's not always true so if we think about back to why did we as human beings form tribes in the first place obviously it had to be adopted otherwise people who were in tribes winter survived as much as people who weren't ripe so we know that there was some selection for tribes and why was that well human beings don't have been cuz we don't have big teeth and we're not really strong and we're terribly slow and I'm kind of weakling for our size if you think about us compared to lions and bears and tigers Wizard of Oz type of things so what did tribes do it like we form these groups that were generally based on kinship so they were like these kinship groups and now we all work together cuz we had brains so we could figure out how do we defend our territory if we all kind of work together now obviously
00:03:22working together like that is that now you Patrick are going to do something that's really hard that you might otherwise not be willing to do so for example in defense of the tribe you might fight a bear which normally would run away from a bear but now you're protecting your can and so you'll actually like fight the bear you might March a hundred miles in order to find a resource for example so bad part of tribe comes from okay so we're going to we're going to protect our own little group and if another group tries to come in and bathe are bad there other whatever and we're going to kill them but the good part of tribe is that it can help you to do things that are really hard that you otherwise would not do that would be against what generally your instincts might be to do so how do you serve get that working for you well we can think about what is chive offering us and there's really wonderful work by a guy named jay van bavel and I really highly recommend him as a fall
00:04:22well on Twitter if I think he's a great science communicator and he does work in 5 and identity and the intersection of identity and beliefs and he kind of frames this as a few of the things that tribe is giving you one is what are the things that we know where don't know so we can think about like we know we should hold try to help with that but the other thing is distinctiveness and belongingness in these are two incredibly important things for human beings we want to feel like we belong to something but then also we want to feel like we are distinct from other people so I really feel like when were really thinking about we know what the data is telling us in terms of the right thing to do instead of just talking to someone being like yours the data and this is what I think you should do to start to activate identity and say this is what we do and this is what we do that is distinct from other people and when we think about the group of people that succeed in the group of people who fail this is what the people who sings
00:05:22he do and I'm going to warn you it's really hard so it's like kind of a saying you're going to have to fight a lion sometimes it's incredibly hard when the market drops by for setting a day it's really hard to not care to really say I'm not worried about this this is not part of my strategy it's really hard not to look at your balance sheet every month and see whether it's going up and down it's hard just like it's hard to not look at Twitter everything we want to see you how are we measuring ourselves but if you say this is what we do as a group and this is what other people do other people are always checking their always reacting to it when they see that their balance sheet has gone up and they're looking at in there same but I have his bond Holdings and boys I could have made so much more money if I didn't have my money and violence why wasn't all my money in stocks and you tell him in advance they're going to feel like that you said that's what other people do when the market is down they say why did I have any money in stocks why wasn't all my money in bonds but you have to know that you can't know that those things are going to occur until after the
00:06:22so what we do is think about giving that we don't know how the future will turn out this is we know statistically this is what the right thing to do is but we also know it's really hard to stick to it and that's what makes you special talk about how that idea of harnessing the positive powers of identity could play into rewriting rules of the game so that's where the Second Avenue in this idea that we were talking about what are unique ways that people can think about rule setting as sort of decision-making superpower trying to get to a goal versus having a rule so let's see that my goal is to eat less me every single time I'm confronted with me I have to make a new decision I'm sitting in a restaurant at the grocery store or whatever I have to decide it's a fresh decision do I want to get something with me or do I want to know but if I say I'm a vegan now that's a rule is part of my identity so therefore I know I'm no longer making new brand new decisions ever
00:07:22single time that I confronted a menu or everytime I confront the grocery store or whatever so setting rule I'm a vegan actually sort of saves me from the opportunity to make a lot of mistakes but in order to get to those were all so you could think about part of the identity of this tribe is that we're going to take a better identity and we're going to write it as a rule which is like for example you could say I only look at my balance sheet once a year that could be one thing that it is it could be just I look at my balance sheet but I don't act on it without talking to my advisor first or I look at my balance sheet and I recognize it when I'm sad that's what other people do and so I don't react that way to it or I'm a long holder all these different ways were instead of saying my goal is to hold for the long term which is kind of like saying my goal is to eat healthy and you say I'm a long holder and now that becomes part of your identity is kind of a rule about the way that you behave so in order to do that though I can order to get to what is the rule which really is kind of the rules of the game like how do I win the vegan game but obviously I don't eat
00:08:22that's what every single time I don't mean I score points you have to identify what your values are that's kind of step one so the first thing instead of getting people to think about what are the rules for me it's actually sit down and identify their values with them which I think we don't do enough of I think that we assume that people generally have the same values and I think that the top level that's true so I think at the top level it's like I want to provide for my family I want to retire with enough money to live a good life whatever it might be I want to make sure that I'm covered in case I get sick I want to have enough leisure time to have a good life whatever it might be like at the top level that's kind of like I want to find a job with meaning I want my life to have meaning I want to provide for my family these kinds of things yes at the top level we all have the same values but when you get down into the Corvette what you can see is how those values expressed for one person versus the other likes super duper different so
00:09:22does it mean money does it mean time are you somebody who's like I work a hundred hours a week because I want to make enough money that my kids I'm never going to say no to them for financial reasons but obviously if you're doing that you're sacrificing a lot of time with your children maybe you're someone who's like I don't want to be one of those hundred Hour Week people like I want to make just enough money that my children have their basic financial needs. And we're fine and they're fed and they have a house but what I want to provide for them what providing for my family means to me is time if you're like I want to live a meaningful life what is a meaningful life mean do you get meeting from your work do you get meeting from your family if you get meeting from your work what is the meaning for the word there's a I really enjoy intellectual work I actually want to be physically feeding people who are I want to stand and hand out food to people who are in need and want to build a houses for people who need houses like I want to physically be doing it or maybe like for you meaning as I'm an effective
00:10:22West and I think that I could make a lot of money and so therefore it would be immoral for me to build a house for somebody I need to be making money and when I do that I can then donate houses to people and this is the way that I'm going to find my meeting is that way you can see like it's like a whole different thing in it as simple as if we both go into a restaurant and we're trying to order a good meal which I assume is what we're all trying to do what does good mean for you vs Me For Me Maybe it's I want to order something healthy or vegan for you it might be I want to order the cheesiest thing on the menu regardless of what kind of the health profile of that is so we can see that it's small and small ways in big ways so if you actually take the time to sit down and figure out what do these things mean for you now you know and you can work with them about what the rules of their game are taken from the Sun have this huge could have visualization in my head and it's a good entree into the meat of our conversation today which is over focus on outcomes in terms of
00:11:22I already the quality of a decision or just in general things that happened probably sway us more than they should when we should instead be focused on the process of the decision but what's interesting now is that we got this under belly of process which goes all the way down to the root of valleys and so I want to spend a few more minutes there and get your take on how fix those ideas are how much can you choose your values versus them choosing you so you know eating a cheeseburger versus being vegan you know Health vs. taste how much of this do you think is under someone's control vs. some sort of natural settings default settings in a person because I think that you're right that these are incredibly powerful a culture at a further once it's set cultural values are things that are very enduring through time which I think is the Bedrock probably a good decision making but I want to make sure you agree and what it is that you're trying to accomplish and really properly identifying that is really at the base of all good decision and so is an example you can think about how much are you focused on short-term vs. long-term with so
00:12:22I realize overall my goal is to be a better decision-maker I can now think about a value of accuracy I can think about for me one of the things that I really value is moving toward constructing an accurate model of the objective truth that's actually quite a hard thing to do but this is my value so what comes out of that is one of the ways to win that game is to approach being wrong with excitement that's what if something that falls from that now was interesting about that is that allows me to turn something that would be a short-term loss into a short-term went because normally when we find out that were wrong about something that's that's a loss for the last four identity now that turns into a win because I'm like oh yeah I'm wrong now my decision making is going to be better I can feel good about the way that I react to that and then obviously that's going to prove my decision-making going forward but the thing that you said which I think is true is that temperamentally people have different temperaments so some people I think naturally have more self-control and so
00:13:22people naturally have less self-control for example I think some people are naturally more rational and some people are naturally a little bit more like emotionally driven and I think that those kinds of temperaments I think we have to recognize that there's a whole range in terms of what's the quality of the decision for you Patrick your range of decision what's the quality of my range of decisions or somebody else has range of dissidence a that's totally fine we're trying to accomplish two things number one is let's make it so that more of Patrick's decisions are out at the right side of the distribution for him so that your worst decision in your best decision let's try to make it some more of your decisions are sitting out at the right tail as possible but then I think that through this really good decision hygiene what happened is that just like anything else those kinds of habits of mind start to get reinforced and as those good habits of mind it reinforced that actually increases the quality of your decisions in general and so you can actually
00:14:22just a distribution to the right now you can imagine one person just temperamental he might have a distribution that's farther to the right than yours but imagine if you just shift a little bit right you might not get all the way there but think about for you cuz what I care about is you what's going to happen in terms of the quality or decisions in the long run those really small changes really matter I feel like we didn't really focused on how do I get people to make perfect decision how do I get people to not make mistakes and I think that's a crazy frame to be looking at that through it should be how do I get you to make fewer of them because just a little bit less is going to have a huge impact on your life if you're somebody who is going to panic every single time literally every single time that the market drops more than 3% you're going to be panicking about that what if I could get you to do that only 80% of the time that someone might view that as what a failure because you're still panicking 80% of the time the market drops / 3
00:15:22but you used to do it at 100%. Time that's a huge success for you and if you think about what it what are your financial outcomes going to look like in the long run that have now gotten you to panic less of the time think about how she was an impact that's going to have and that's all good so I think we need to recognize that really this is all about how we moving people because you're born with the brain that you have I can't take it out of your head and stick a new brain in there what I can do is start to reinforce better habits excuse to talk in more detail about the specific anatomy of a given decision so obviously luck plays a role in all of this or going to talk a lot about that and that's a key part of what then determines outcomes which we already mentioned is the mistake is focusing on the post luck outcomes but when it comes to a decision itself through the atomic platonic decision talk us through the inputs are the pieces of that that matter most and then we'll talk about ways that hopefully we can improve on that for people
00:16:22as you said I like to think about the anatomy of a decision so at the base of the decision is your beliefs this is stuff you know and opinions you have basically what are your beliefs about the world now I say stuff you know but let's just be clear that it's rare that you know something 100% the example I give his I can't be a hundred percent sure that the Earth is round cuz I might be living in a simulation there's always a tiny bit of obviously there's a range of assure you of the things that you believe so beliefs are really the stuff you know and then there's also stuff you don't know they so obviously stuff you know is going to be informing the decision but remember that stuff you don't know has an influence on your decision as well because they're in that box of stuff you don't know some of that if you knew it would be really helpful for the decision so the most important thing that sitting in the stuff you don't know box is what's the actual outcome that will occur then you can never know that ever so we don't want to think what we shouldn't think about stuff we don't know cuz that's not actually an input
00:17:22the decision cuz it is inside of the Omission so we've got those two boxes stuff you know stuff you don't know those are obviously in for me the decision itself you make the decision that now get you to an outcome and this is where we get tripped up it gets you to a particular outcome but that's a temporal problem because at the moment that you're making the decision the minute you make the decision between the decision in the outcome that actually occurs there's an influence of luck because when you make a decision there's always lots and lots and lots of ways that the future could unfold so there's always multiple possible outcomes but there's only one that will actually occur and that's where we really get into problems in the next part in terms of the anatomy of the decision because once you have the outcome that's not your experience experience is of your life are all because there was one particular path it happen and other passed in it but they could have so now we take those past that happened in post that we try to figure out what do we learn what do we know
00:18:22for what we know now that we didn't know before was a decision good or bad were there things that I could have known that I didn't know and you're trying to walk through all of these decisions hopefully with the goal of now making a better decision going forward sadly it's mostly with the goal of ruminating that you actually made a not-so-great decision before you have stuffy nose stuff you don't know it was informed the decision you make a decision that decision now determines the set of possible outcomes that can occur and the chances that any one of those outcomes occur so as we're weighing options that's really what we're doing option A has some set of possible outcomes option b had some set of possible outcomes they could be the exact same set but different probabilities they could be a difference that they could be overlapping it'll be a subset all those things and then you have some chance of those occurring and then post-decision there's an intervention of luck with anything you can't control and then you have the actual thing that occurred and now
00:19:22under the influence of the actual thing that occurred you're supposed to try to figure out something about what the decision quality was the good things and the bad things that means so here is one of the main ways that trying to do sort of a post outcome review which is mostly what we do like that's not just something that happens in business it's just happens in her mind all the time one of the big problems with the post outcome of you is that if you think about it until you try to think about like so how do we make a decision this is really hard because we have the stuff we know we have the stuff we don't know and then within the stuff we don't know their stuff we can't know the size of the universe or what you're thinking right now things like that have to do with like predictions like I don't know what the weather will be like on this day next year exactly I have arranged but I don't know it depends on where I'm in the world so there's all sorts of stuff that we can't know but then there's stuff that we could know
00:20:16but maybe we don't know right now but then we have to figure out what how much does that cost so that's hard some information is too costly either because of time it would take too long to find it out until then you lose all your opportunities are maybe in terms of money how much is it going to cost you money wise or resource wise in order to get that information in terms of the return that you'll get in improving the decision that you make then within the stuff you could know their stuff that cost too much and stuff that is sort of at the right cost and then there's the problem of very often you don't know what you don't know or you don't know how much would cost and so this is all very complicated all of that very complicated stuff is informing the decision you make which now has this further complication of the decision you make doesn't guarantee a particular outcome it guarantees a set of possible outcomes that are probabilistic in nature those probabilities are rarely exactly known they are for something like the divorce rates but they aren't for most things like whether a stock is going to go up or down
00:21:16lots of things that happen that we didn't actually see on the horizon so it's hard to figure out what all this possible outcomes are so that's all like super hard so given that that's all really hard as we look back on the decision the only way that we can figure out was it a good decision or was a bad decision is to reconstruct all of that stuff a lot of which is hard in the moment but now looking back on it trying to figure out what what did you know what don't you know what could you have known was it the right, did you have all the possible outcomes figure it out properly what were the percentage of those outcomes oh my God everybody's head explode like a super computer in order to figure that out so hard it's not transparent we can't see the math we don't live in The Matrix we're like all that code is coming down for us so we can look and see if there was a bug there like who knows like that's too hard like it makes my head explode so what is the thing that I do know I know how it turned out that is sitting right in front of me and whatever my values are I know that for me whether that was good
00:22:16so I know that and so what happens is that our brains go okay that's Tuff Stuff but this I know it turned out well it turned out poorly and so I'll use that as a shortcut to get me back to whether the decision itself was good or bad so this is a general problem that we have that has to do its overfitting outcomes to decision quality thinking that outcomes are much more predictable than they actually are given the decision this is called real thing and you can see why I take the result I know where the result was good or bad and that tells me whether the decision was good or bad so that's why it's called resulting it's an intuitive name let's put it out within the Buckeye talk about a really very famous example of result in which was Pete Carroll in the Super Bowl and this actually is a good way to see how hard can back down into the decision quality is second down 26 seconds left down by phora to the Patriots cuz only the Super Bowls the Patriots Reddit
00:23:16girl has one time out he does something super duper unexpected he calls for a pass play when everybody's expecting him to hand the ball off of Marshawn Lynch who's the running back the pass is intercepted and universally everybody does this result they think they're like an interception is terrible I can see what the quality of that was so they all say this is the stupidest decision ever so if we don't know what were the different possible outcomes what were the percentage of those outcomes because we know that that's the stuff you need to know in order to really know whether is a good decision there's a lot of care about would be touchdown incomplete and interception does for a second to simplify so here's what we know is that the only way literally the only way that we know whether this is a good decision or not is to understand how often
00:24:16that outcome which is interception occurs and if we don't know that we don't really know a lot about what the decision quality is the thing is it if I go around and I asked people they're like I don't know I don't have like I didn't even think about that I didn't know that was a thing I should be thinking about it's really obvious that it was a bad decision cuz it ended an interception so if you ask yourself that question the answer there is between 1 and 2% it starts to become pretty clear that oh wait a minute maybe that wasn't such a bad decision after all down we know what happens he's a genius which is also resulting by the way so that's just as bad if just because a touchdown is scored they say he's a genius and I think if everybody takes a second to sink
00:25:02okay what are the headlines look like if it's a touchdown I think everybody can feel like she was like this is why so great he was sitting on the field crying again so sad So that obviously he's a genius in the case that the ball is in complete a really important thing happens which is the clocks that and it stops really fast so we know that that's actually not a bad outcome for them because the clock stops fast enough for them to still get to place so that's kind of a really good thing for them so it's like a score touchdown know but it's in the world of good outcomes for that then you have this like one to 2% chance that the ball gets intercepted so just on that basis alone you can see what the power of resulting does it seem so obvious that nobody even ask that question like a challenge people to go I mean don't look at Nate silver site because you'll see some pretty good math there but if you look like USA Today and the Washington Post
00:26:02or look at that Monday what people are saying as they were declaring that picture always an idiot and you you will not find that statistic in there anywhere why because it's obvious why would I need to know that but that's exactly the thing you need to know but the problem is it so complicated so this is a way to simplify so resulting is basically a simplification but this isn't a place that you actually it's not a good place for simplify things about your work is these simplifying little heuristics and questions that you can ask an obviously the famous one that everyone is logged onto rightfully so is want to bet because it forces you to think about the various probabilities and then base our decision based on expected outcome vs. black and white type thinking the range of probabilities instead of just being a deterministic person about it the other one I found really interesting in there is this question of how do I know if the base level of the anatomy of a decision is beliefs which is like the information you think you have about the world I'd love you to expand on that question because it's amazing if you start to turn that lens on yourself or you got to believe and you
00:27:02ask the question how do I know things can fall apart pretty quickly what else is behind that question of being skeptical about your own beliefs as chew things that are coming into Focus the number one is how much luck is going to be in the outcome so if you're thinking about do you want to bet on that something is going to occur they start to think why why don't know like let me think about how much like what's the range of outcomes like how common are there we can do so it actually causes that uncertainty in a bubble to the surface that influence of love to mobile data service but the other thing it does is it is it get you to start thinking about why do I know what I know how well do I know it like how short am I because that's really kind of what someone is challenging you two and one of the things I think I want to bet does really really really well if we think about how do we figure out what our own state of knowledge is how confident we are and what we know is it we know that when were thinking about
00:28:02own knowledge and what we see in the world that were very overconfident about the things that we know and that's because we're looking at the world from the inside out so when I say want to bet to you I actually force you into the outside view because of mediately and you can correct me if I'm wrong one of the questions you say is what is the ending of that I don't know so it's essentially like a Q2 first of all question why do you know the things that you know so you start to sort of go through some wedding like what's the evidence that I have for the belief where did I learn it however I researched it and then it also starts to pull you into the outside view what is the person who wants to bet against me know that I don't know you start asking why am I wrong instead of why am I right that kind of really important and you think like what are other things that might be true or in the case of outcome if we are time at the Pete Carroll thing and you said what an idiotic decision and I said you want to bet one of the things that you would do what you would start thinking what what are the other ways it could turn out was that the only way it could have turned out you might ask yourself
00:29:02how often does an interception have in their see you start to say to yourself like what what's the range of outcomes inside of what's the probability so what we want to do is recognize without always saying herself like you want to bet you want to bet you want to bet how do we create good habits of mind around making sure that our beliefs are kind of as good as possible so there's two things that we want to do we want to audit if we think about the box of stuff we know we want to be doing some auditing of that so that's the why do I know this how sure am I of it those kinds of questions so that's kind of doing an internal audit but then we also want to figure out what it what's the best way to extract stuff out of that box of things I don't know in two things I do know and along with that to say how do I actually extract the maximum stuff that I don't know that I don't know cuz that's actually really important to do so how do you do that will the first thing is you get
00:30:02focused on wanting to go find the information out that's number one and the actual interesting thing that sort of Spurs you to do that in the hint is from what about if I say want to bet it makes you start thinking about what's the range of outcomes and how often do they occur no notice for you to do that you have to go think about your knowledge and then you might want to find some things out that you realize that you don't know so Jesse active sort of thinking about there's always a lot of ways that they turn out and each of those ways has some probability of occurring and if I start to first I'll take a stab at figuring out the range and then second about take a stab at figuring out what the likelihood is which may not be an exact number of might be arranged it could be sometimes it would be like I know the divorce rate is 50% sometimes it might be I don't know the exact divorce rate but it's somewhere between 40 and 60% just the act of doing that starts to make you do these internal audit and it makes you try to go find information that would inform that process so that's number one that's like the kick in the butt to get you to go do that and then the second thing
00:31:02you have to do is figure out I only know what I know and I know that I am going to be processing the world in a way that is biased no matter how hard I try I make it a little bit better at it but I'm always going to be reasoning in a way that's going to support the belief that I have I'm going to be wheezing in a way that makes outcomes make sense once I know an outcome it's very hard for me to get out from under the shadow of it so you can tell me like if this is true for you but I know the math of the Pete Carroll I know it very well I know that in I think it was game 4 of this year's World Series it was totally fine to pull the picture in the seventh inning and no it mathematically and yeah if I really had to be honest with myself like with my emotional reaction to it Charles and it is given that I know it's like I've looked at it I've done the math I'm still in my head somewhere there's a voice going
00:32:02I've actually done the work imagine how much this is happening without it being in View and you don't even know how much your reasoning toward the outcome to make the outcome make sense reasoning toward the things that you already believe so that's motivated reasoning where we think that were processing information in an objective way in order to construct the most accurate police but was actually happening as we have all these beliefs and their determining how we process information and kind of two ways the first is that basically we pay attention to stuff that agrees with us and secondly when we do have information that disagrees with us we're very good at spinning a story either to discredit or it's actually slice and dice it actually agree with us so we process information to support our beliefs not process information to calibrate our beliefs during is believing idea from the book we know that we're going to fall into this we can think about that even just in terms of
00:33:02NBA games we're not very comfortable with uncertainty we're not very comfortable with random we want outcomes to make sense we don't want to think that bad things can happen to a good decisions that makes a sad we don't want to think that it's a good thing happened it was a bad decision. Make a super sad and so we're always doing the circular reasoning so if I know that then I know that I'm on my own I'm going to be not so great at this so one of the things I'm saying I want to be better at these post outcome reviews like I want to be better at figuring out why things happened so that I could win more bats that's the game here right the game is like accuracy the person who has the most accurate beliefs about the world is going to win in a batting situation so this is now the game so how am I after outcomes how do I trade the most accurate view of the world when I'm in the process of trying to decide do I make the best decision and actually have the best view of what the possible outcomes are how often though I know I can't do that on my own ook
00:34:02use other people because when I think about the box of things I don't know other people know stuff that I don't know what I think about what are other ways that things might turn out you might have a different idea than I do when I think about how often might those things are not what you might have a different view than I do you just have a different perspective on the world than I do and if I were talking to you that would be things that you might tell me that I knew that I needed you to tell me but there's probably a lot of stuff living in your head that would be useful to me but I don't know it's useful to me and I'd like to get those out of your head as well so how do we do that so there's kind of three main tax tag number one is to talk to other people including uncertainty in the way that you talk so if I say something like let's say that I say obviously I was going to lose the election in 2020 if you have other ideas about that I haven't left any room for us to really have a conversation about it either we're going to get in a battle about it because I declare that this thing is to 100% so either I'm going to just get out of you like what you're wrong and you're an idiot and we're not actual
00:35:02and have a real exchange or in a cocktail party situation you might not even speak up and you might have a different view than I do and I now don't have the opportunity to learn that because I have declared something with certainty I haven't left the door open for us to have a rational exchange of information about why you might be the world differently than I do but if I were to express it instead as yeah you know like I'm kind of interested because I've seen a lot of stuff I see different opinions about what the likelihood that Trump will win in 2020 is and I'm just not really sure he's probably an underdog but you know maybe he's like 47% now that we're not having a disagreement where was the disagreement now so I have now like let the door open for you to now start offering me up a whole bunch of things that you think about it could say for example like well I actually think the percentage is higher and you haven't told me I'm wrong because I didn't declare right or wrong in the first place right
00:36:02you can say like I think this is he's our mistakes I think it depends on which candidate now all of a sudden you're going to have a conversation with me about it and you can do this and anything you know don't declare I know this is the right strategy for investing in the stock market be like well you know I'm sort of looking at it there's all sorts of different ways that you can express uncertainty so I can say I think this is a really good route to take to the airport I'm like 76% on that I do this when I'm writing a book I'll say to my editor I think that I'm going to have the next chapter 2 on Monday 54% by Friday you know it'll be 92% of the time she actually has told me back that she actually really enjoys that because it's really good expectation settings for an opportunity to probe is to buy Monday is 54% could you support me in somewhere that's like speed it up what's going to happen after Friday but it is kind of like it gives people room to do that so that's kind of strategy number one another thing that you can do is I read this opinion piece really interested in what you
00:37:02to say about it but I just want to let you know it's the only thing I've read on the topic so now what I've done is I said I have an opinion about lectures what I think about it but I just want you to know it's not that well informed of a decision which and I'll let you know that I'm pretty uncertain about what my opinion is and I'm just looking for information I'm just speaking in a way that's more likely to be a good information extractor out of your head the other thing I think that's really important to understand is that in order to be really good at this knowledge piece like how do I think about why the world is the way it is how do I process my experience how do I learn from it how do I think about what a good decision as what the outcomes might be I have to be really good at how do I get feedback from people and the number one thing to understand about getting feedback from people is that they have the same bias as you do and they will reason toward beliefs the same way that you do and they will reason to make outcomes make sense the same way that you do so it's really important to understand that your
00:38:02are infectious in a bad way they're contagious they inspect the other person and that the way that the world has actually turned out will also infect the process and that it's not just you talking to other people but it's anybody who gets in a room together they're going to start to inspect each other where their beliefs are going to start to inspect each other with the outcome so if I'm deconstructing a past decision will be really good if I'm trying to get your opinion on it if I sort of work through the decision only up to the point that I needed to decide for example if I'm trying to say hey do you think this is a good play in football I would say well and I was on the one-yard line and it was second down and I only had one timeout and I can hand it off to Marshawn Lynch or I could throw it I was down by force need to score a touchdown obviously don't have a lot of time and it only one time out so here is what I considered welfare so I could stop there are not even tell you anything that I consider I believe so that was pretty good what do you think
00:39:02so now I'm not infecting you with my beliefs at all and now I care what you think but maybe you need to know some of the math maybe you don't know that so what I would tell you then is so I really felt like I wanted to get the ball to Marshawn Lynch twice and as I was thinking about that I kind of thought well if I headed out to Marshawn Lynch the first time and he doesn't score a ton of time has run off the clock so I have to call a timeout and I headed off to Marshawn Lynch again that's the last play so then I thought well maybe I should pass because if I pass and it's in complete the clocks. So I can get it up to Marshawn Lynch again what do you think the notice I haven't told you that it ended in This Disaster so when I described it to you that way you're Now by definition out from under the shadow of the outcome and you can actually see through to sort of what am I thinking processes and what my decision process is a lot better such that I'm going to get higher Fidelity feedback from you so you can do this in two ways you can make sure that you're doing a lot of decision review before you get an outcome so I think I say if you're a trial lawyer deconstruct your strategy
00:40:02for the vertex from the early cuz that one vertex probably isn't going to be very there's not going to be a ton of signaling that you would have to sort of see across a lot of different there's a lot of Randomness there but if the verdict is already come in and I'm going to talk to somebody else to try to find out what they think about my strategy I should never tell them what the verdict was I should act as if it didn't happen yet so that I'm not solely in the way that they're going to not think about the decision so that's number one is like quarantine outcomes number two is to actually quarantine beliefs from each other so that would be so that second piece of the Pete Carroll thing I can say here are my different option I could pass first and then if that failed I could run the ball twice I could hand the ball off first so I can just walk through here with the different options under consideration and then not tell you which one I like so now because once I tell you which one I like either I'm putting you in a position where you have to disagree or I'm probably going to be pretty convincing and you're not even there
00:41:02I know it but you're going to start looking through the frame of trying to justify the things that I told you that I believe and it's going to depend a little bit about whether you sort of consider yourself in driver out of tribes me if you consider yourself in tribe your reason toward my belief if you consider yourself out of tribe you'll reason away from the belief we can see this and politics all the time where it's that thing of what if Obama did it or what a front is that silly because that's a terrible problem not a belief problem so I can just literally present you with the different options that I had and then not tell you which one I chose not tell you which one I believed was better and now you something about how I could do that prospective play when I'm considering a decision I can tell you the options that I have and now I can say so what do you think and one of the things that I can ask you about is do you think that I'm missing an option that's a good question to ask and now I haven't told you which option I like so now I'm going to get much better feedback from you then the third piece of that puzzle is to make sure that you're doing that when you have any kind of group 2
00:42:02Jamaican going on so if I'm trying to elicit feedback I want to actually elicited separately so I think they like the easiest way to conceptualize this is if you have a hiring committee to have each person interview the candidates separately and then have them each right there debrief separately before they get in a room with each other things again we need to remember is that sometimes if someone use somebody else's out of tribe that they'll actually go in the other direction so it's not just a group thing problem sometimes it's like you're not my team so I can't agree with you and that's just as bad that's not good either so much of what you said makes me think about him back to your psychology route studying psychology as a student about this concept of ego and that in many of the bad influences on decision-making a large Eagle seems to be getting in the way so do you think that one of the best strategies for improving decision-making is to suppress that you go to kill the ego
00:43:02let's go back to the beginning of the conversation where the rules of the game I want to win shares a thing like I think that we're not perfectly well built for absolute pricing some good price of goods that the base there's like cost to produce how much should this pair of shoes vs this pair of shoes cost it's a lot of like what will the market there like what are people telling you they're willing to pay for what is this look like compared to this other thing if they're very similar to the price has to be similar relative to each other despite what the cost to produce might be cuz all the sort of Relativity adjust in cost of goods but you can think of also just in terms of your own happiness we know that if you ask somebody would you rather be in the top 10% of its or socioeconomic status and 1650 or in the bottom 20% of socioeconomic status today literally everybody choose a 1650 from absolute pricing would why are you choosing 1650 I think your life expectancy is
00:44:0240 or something there's open sewer there's no vaccine what but because we don't really know we're happy unless we're comparing yourself to other people so I think that suppressing your ego isn't it amazing goal I really do I practice mindfulness I try to do that I think that we're doomed to fail because we don't really know how to Value ourselves without thinking about like how do we value our cells compared to other people and I want to be clear that I think you should practice that other thing I think you should practice how do I take my ego out of it how do I not have that but I don't know if you've ever talk to certain people who practice this stuff but they have a lot of ego about how much ego they don't have you noticed that painful and I really take might you go out of everything I'm the nativo guy I was way better at not having you go then you should listen for that cuz you'll hear that there's all those who were like I'm better at not having
00:45:02I'm going to practice try to take my a lot of things I really am but I also recognize that I'm going to end up being one of those people who what do we do that as it goes back to the rules of the game you identify these are the things that I value here are the things that I think you're going to make me better as a decision-maker one of these things and we think about the anatomy of a decision we know that at the base the base of it is the stuff you know in the stuff you don't know doing that constant internal auditing of that stuff you know box and then trying to extract as much of the stuff you don't know out of that box so I know that I have to be doing that and in order to do that I have to be willing to let go of my belief sometime I have to realize the things that I believe is wrong I just actually had to happen to me I was a really wonderful thing sometimes I have to calibrate my belief little bit now I can calibrate it in two different ways at my belief to become stronger I could think the thing is more true sometimes
00:46:02the right direction to go a good time to stay the same I could believe it a little bit last like I could go from 32% on that now I'm 63% but sometimes like I can have a full-on reversal and those are the things that I should actually be the most thankful for because if I really had it wrong every decision is informed by that at least that I have that's like completely out of whack so obviously my decisions are only going to be as good as my belief so now if I say for me the winning game is still make better decisions and at the base of that is that this box has to be more accurate and this box of stuff I know these things that are in it in order to create more accuracy I have to really be seeking out the stuff I don't know box because that's what's going to inform those now when I find out I'm wrong I'm winning the game and by the way I feel pretty good about myself but I'm winning the game about myself that I changed my mind and I feel pretty good about myself that I did that other person credit and that I'm really thankful that they disagreed with me and I'm
00:47:02really good at that game so there I don't think that's so bad when I say they could somebody that stands out as being exceptional and improving their decision-making ability that you've had in your life who comes to mind I would say that the person that I know though is the best at this that I've ever seen as Eric Sydow famous poker player she's just really good at seeing where he might be making mistakes like he is so focused on that very very open-minded really wants to learn from other people I think it's very hard when you're sitting at a poker table and somebody be too it's really hard to just admit that they might have played better than you hard when they're doing something that seems weird to you that's a strategy that you hadn't thought of before that you might not be in your wheelhouse then you sort of feel like you had a deficit so it's a lot easier to sort of SWAT that often say they're just a lucky idiot and he's just so good at saying I'm the idiot he's so good at that and I think it shows in his results shows in his temperament
00:48:02very calm doesn't get upset too easily I think you really defined what is the goal for him so early on and then you know I feel like I was just really lucky to come in contact with me I got to catch a little bit of that disease I'm not anywhere close to him she would be like my goal getting to where he is would be my goal of people of that class that are good at improving their decision-making ability can you say anything about their tenants your lack of Tennessee to change the rules of the game so how often are people that are really good at this playing new games versus just getting really good at some original thing that they're trying to accomplish and being consistent that's a very interesting question so I think that a top-level you have to recognize that once you sort of identify what a goal is which obviously is informed by your values that you can figure out what the rules are. Game are forgetting there in that since you always have a singular focus on kind of like winning the game I always have to figure out my goals are given what my values are what is that goal mean for me to that
00:49:02back to that question of if I know my goal is to provide for my family I had to think about what my values are so I understand what provide for my family means for me personally and then I can go backwards from there I obviously think backwards time travel and I talked about in my book is really importance of what are the structures that I need to set in place like what are the contracts that I'm making which really defines what the rules are and what it would mean to win that game so I think for people who are doing this they recognize that very fundamental basic thing and then what I think that they do is situational a speaking they done now use that same strategy and to order to figure out given this particular thing that I'm engaging in what are the rules of the game when I'm really frustrated with someone who's like a customer service person I generally I don't yell and I don't get upset because the rules of the game or actually to get out of them what I want and if I yell at them I knows I'm just reducing my bathroom doing that so I tend to be very common The Situation's not cuz I'm actually, internally I'm upset because I Define very quickly what my goal is and what do I need to do in order to win this game and yelling is very counterproductive that
00:50:02even though I'm really mad really clarify answer and it makes you would think one of my favorite books James Carson is finite and infinite games have you read that book game is for the infinite game that he Advocates you play I think I like your dreams of sushi or something of that framing of really the game starts a layer before the rules of the game kind of like we've talked about where you're switching and its situation dependent everything else the last topic I want to explore with you is the role of psychology when you're dealing with other people so when other people are a part of a decision that introduced sort of how big are returned because of human psychology and this idea that you have in the book that life isn't shassetz poker because people are involved and there's always sort of the math component and the people component so using poker or not maybe just rif on that concept of how to deal with the psychology of others and factored that into the sorts of decision that you're making which very often involve others
00:51:02decision we said there's kind of two big things in there that the first is stuffy nose stuff you don't know about that is incomplete information or poorly formed believes because if we think that something is true that's not that would then go into the category of incomplete information for even complete information and then we also have this intervention of luck in between the moment that we make the decision and whatever the outcome is so there's an intervention to block generally as stuff we don't have control over so if we think about Chasse there's a little left but there's not really a lot I mean certainly not in the sense that somebody rolls Dice and then he comes off the board or not hidden information in the sense of I can see the whole position on the board will only move by an active skill and because I can see the whole position I know all the possible places that those pieces could move are so what that means just in a simple thing is that resulting in chess is totally reasonable strategy we play a game I lose we know my decisions were worse than yours by the way back to relative pricing we don't know
00:52:02salute like in an absolute sense how good my decisions were I only know compared to you so now everything about poker that's no longer true there's hidden information against the cards and cards turn stuff happened you beat me to tell in poker now we can see the resulting is quite a poor strategy we play some poker an hour poker I lose to you and we don't really know anything about my decisions and comparison she would just feel like we do you feel like we know I was the worst player but we actually don't know that because I'm poker I can have the best and I can play it quite well and I can still lose and vice-versa and chest that just doesn't happen if I make the best moves I get to win at chess vs. poker thing and in poker is just a better model for decision making because of that now one thing that happens in poker is the hidden information is really what do you have but then we can also think generally about not only just that your cars are hidden from view there's also things that you know so you know what your cards are but then there's also how are you going to react to your cards so the actions of others are all
00:53:01so things I can't control their things that I don't know I don't know what the actions of others going to be I don't know what your thoughts and feelings are really I don't have access to that hardly have access to my own to be fair as we know from psychology I certainly don't have access to yours so it's not just that I don't know what card is going to come out it's like I don't know how you're going to act and you're not necessarily always going to act rationally so if I knew you have a c and Sally has Aces over here and I bet you might do something with those Aces and Sally will so I'm I don't really know that and I'm guessing it that so obviously when we're talking about poker I'm not trying to get a zero-sum way best you know I'm trying to take a guess at what are your cards and what are you thinking about them and how do I sync about what you're thinking about them and this is all meant to be an even exchange I win you lose hopefully or you know sadly maybe you win I lose so how good I am at kind of narrowing down those ranges
00:54:01like working in those uncertainties identifying how much luck is going to be in the outcome taking a better guess than most people at what you might do with your card how I might be able to get you to sort of act in certain ways what the probabilities are of the different hands that you might have that's going to kind of determine how I went so that's the straightforward stuff that we've been talking about him how good are you at figuring out sort of what's in that stuff you don't know box how good are you at auditing the stuff you do know box how good it you were figuring out what your options are so obviously and poker it's limited I could raise call fold how good are you at figure out what the possible outcomes are given any of those options that I take how good are you at thinking about how often those things occur it so that's relatively straightforward what starts to get more complicated is that very often we aren't the final decision maker so sometimes we have a boss sometimes we have a committee that we have to get to agree with us we have children so the question is how do we
00:55:01balance out I want to be kind of making the best decision for myself but then I've got other people who have influence on what my outcomes are I don't really have a lot of control over them so how can I buy them behave in a way that kind of makes that all work a little bit better together and touch the little bit on a given number one is like any kind of committee situation make sure your keep people away from each other the other thing is the way that you talk to people can get somebody who otherwise would not necessarily be somebody who would then become a thought partner with you to be a thought partner with you so the less that you're using words like wrong or right or whatever you're going to get much better information out of people in one of the things that I really Advocate is to never ask someone are you sure ever to only ever ask how short are you and if you just make that little switch in language you will get them to be a partner with you even if they're not necessarily so inclined so I think that that can be really helpful and the other thing that can be really helpful is transparency
00:56:01if we think about part of the problems would like resulting in hindsight bias and all these things were outside influence outcomes it's really if we think about it's really being caused by what's the transparency of the decision that sell I can show you what the transparency is pretty easily when there is a decision that is transparently good or bad we don't results I'll give you an example hey I was driving along at the speed limit with a very well-maintained car and I proceeded through a green light in very good weather and someone came through the intersection and T-boned me did I make that decision but the outcome wasn't so easy for you because it's transparent like the transparency into the decision you don't need to you know what the quality of that decision is so now we can use that to our advantage because that people say to me they'll be like this is fine
00:57:01I can do the stuff at what do I do about my boss what do I do about my boss my boss is really outcome-oriented and I know if I have a bad decision it's all over and I said well be more transparent about the decision with them when you have a decision to try to build out these kind of trees that we've been talking about years the decision here's the stuff that I was thinking about this is kind of what I'm considering sure what I think the options are tell me what you say and if they say well it's your job to tell you what I think okay well here's what I think and here's why but I want to give you the opportunity to tell me why I'm wrong tell me what I'm missing is there a piece of information is there like an outcome I'm not considering am I not taking into account risk of Ruin well enough whatever it might be just show them that and the thing is it interesting ly enough they may not even engage so much but the fact that you showed it to them when it later if you have a bad outcome you can be like we talked about this so I think that transparency is really really good the other thing is to accept that not all decisions require consensus
00:58:01you can work through a process and you can still have people who disagree with the decision but if you've included their voices into the decision Bill usually feel pretty good about that and you can do that in a few ways you can obviously red team if you do pre-mortem switch is imagining failure that allows the dissenters to actually have a voice in the decision process and I don't know anybody who's ever going to pre-mortem who doesn't then do some changes to the strategy so they feel Incorporated once you reach consensus you can do things like they will this is alarming let's go figure out why we all agree with each other and then all those people who maybe wouldn't otherwise be speaking up get to say so and even if you do end up going with that decision they feel like they've been hurt and so that's also helpful in group decision making and then at some point you also have to say I can't control other people I can just do the best thing for me and that's okay to just sort of like understand like there's things I can control and things I can't stand being exasperated because someone else doesn't want to see what I see the first of all I should ask myself
00:59:01maybe I'm exasperated because I'm not being open-minded to the fact that what they see actually has some value you should always ask yourself that but even if the answer is no like I really thought about it and I've done this in a way that I think is pretty rational and I think that I should just be exasperated with and why you was aspirated with them you don't have control over that people better and maintaining uncertainty like it's one of the major things I'll take away from this ever close the doors leaves communication Pathways opened when it were so prone to close the right word what we sow want black and white outcomes like determinism and that's a huge mistake you're making good decisions aspirated when you can be exasperated or you can stay to yourself okay I'm exasperated with them is it so much so that I'd like to like fire them as a client so maybe that's the answer maybe it's like they're such a Time sucks because they're calling me like they can't get it into their head stop looking what your balance sheet is please don't look at your p&l like stop maybe that's the answer
01:00:01so this is interesting cuz they're a super exasperated but let me see maybe I can move them like how can I change the way I talk to them like take it on as a challenge for how you can learn I mean I think this is a good lesson from poker there's people acting irrationally poker all the time around me and sometimes I do something we're like any thinking human being Woods full and that person calls me and my boss doesn't work well frankly it's up to me to figure out how I don't make that mistake again cuz that's my mistake that I didn't recognize that they weren't going to act in a way that I thought they were supposed to and quotes that's on me as opposed to just dismissing like what they're just dumb so if you have someone who's exasperatingly figure out what can I move them can I speak to them in a different way how can I change my strategy to get them into a place that I think is going to be both better for them and better for me and sometimes the answer is it's not worth the time but mostly you're going to learn something from that and then what you'll find is that having taken the time to approach with a more open mind
01:01:01find the person who you is so irrational and so is aspirating and trying to really stay will this year's the rules of this game how do I get into the best place with this person is it then you're going to learn some things about what words would that person that you can then take into somebody else that you might be working with and you're going to figure out you know what they really responded when I phrased it like this they really respond it when I use this particular identity language they really responded when I compare them to this group of people they really respond it's whatever and then you're going to seed with the most exasperating person with the person who is most prone to being irrational most prone to being reactive most prone to being emotional whatever it might be that you found a way to death that down that there's going to improve every single relationship you have with everybody else and you only did that because you didn't say that person just an idiot and Bubba blah as if you had no part in that relationship what's the best decision that you've made
01:02:01imagine I don't know what it is I mean that's just sort of the nature of it and I hate saying like I mean I can say the best decision I made to have children but how can I possibly say that because who knows what it's like to have children before hand you know so I can tell you that's a decision that worked out really well with having children I don't it's hard for me to say that here's what I think the best decision I made is this really was a conscious decision actually tell the story of my book when I first started playing poker my brother had taught me and giving me like a pretty simple list of hands that I was allowed to play so I went out and played and when they were people who are not like following the list I thought they were dumb but I really did like I was a jerk I mean I wasn't saying it out loud to them I was an idiot but like me and my head was like a total freaking jerk and I felt very Superior to that because of course like I knew how to play and they didn't have an incredibly dismissive of them and I sort of think back on that and I'm like I could have gone to ask the person to give me the list that seems a little weird but I was just very sure that this you know clearly my list was really good and these are the hands
01:03:01Supply and if these people are playing at a hand different than what was on the list they were just idiot and sometime into that a year after I started playing I realized maybe they're not idiots because I started realizing like as I was playing I started figuring out what sometimes actually there certain situations you would play different hands like the circumstances demand it I mean that sort of what bluffing is about so all of a sudden I remember looking back and saying oh my god I've been like this missing all these people are idiots and I suppose some of them were maybe but not all of them and it's that thing that that Eric Seidel thing I realized oh my God I'm the idiot I'm the idiot because I have just been dismissing them and I haven't been trying to figure out is what they're doing okay why why are they doing that and there's two things that come in come out of why they're doing it then a is that actually reasonable thing to do in that situation and I can think about that and maybe incorporate into my game then B is I understand why they're doing it so I can recognize when it will happen again and then I can counteract it both of those things are
01:04:01are very good for me so here is the decision I made think was the best decision I made in my life I said I am going to try to figure out the thing that every single person at the table that I come across does better than I do I'm not saying that that was my best decision because it happened helped me and poker it was my best decision because I think it really changed my life and I would say that's the best decision I made for everybody is for the kind of thing that anyone's ever done for you I had so much kindness in my life I think if I have to like pick like it isolated moment that doesn't have to do with the usuals I'm trying to give you some is the kindest person she is so kind to me that I would have to write a book about the kind of I mean he wins a lot like all the kindest thing but I feel like that sort of in the normal category so I'm going to give you something that's outside the norm a very kind thing that somebody did for me that really had an impact what I went to graduate school I had an amazing advisor line look like men and I also worked with her husband
01:05:01relay button at Henry's past and Lila was incredibly important person in my life she's brilliant and funny and incredible and she was really like a mother to me I mean she wasn't just like my thesis advisor if she was really amazing at the end of graduate school as I was going out for my job talks during the last year I've been struggling with this very bad stomach problem which is weird discussed before but I was really sick and I was going out for my first job talk at NYU and it just got to the point where I mean I was so sick I just couldn't keep food down and I ended up in the hospital for two weeks identical gastroparesis so I was literally on and Ivy it was pretty bad I was really sick so the job market is seasonal and so I had to cancel all of my job talks and then obviously I needed time to recover it was a very bad time in my life I felt like this was all very unlucky which is a good lesson in itself cuz I think it's actually quite lucky that my life took that
01:06:01so now I know I take time off from school and it's during that time that I start playing poker so the thing about graduate school is that it's like he know five years of your life that you're putting this time in and I felt very keenly that this was time that these people had put into me and like a tremendous amount of effort that these people are put into me and as I was kind of going to this physical crisis you know when I start playing poker I think that I sort of felt this need to like escape from the world a little bit and at that time poker was not on television I was it wasn't until about eight years into when I was playing poker that it became on TV so it was a very good vehicle for hiding from the world a little bit cuz like when you physically didn't feel well and so I think that's kind of what I wanted to do the part of that was that I sort of hid from them I had some contact with them over the years but not too much and I have a probably overdeveloped feeling of Shame and disappointing people and so I really felt that and then that cause a problem with me sort of container
01:07:01when to interact with them I just kind of like I carried through my whole life as I was having like this flourishing like poker and then that 8 years until I was playing poker actually started doing the academic work again through merging the two I mean in 2002 is when I started doing the work that you see and thinking and bats I just always felt like I had really disappointed these people and in particular that I very much disappointed Lila really disappointed her and that I was very ashamed of it I imagine that she was quite ashamed of me and this was all kind of like this narrative that was living in my head so we lose touch my fault I mean completely my fault because I think that I just carried around this sense of having failed so strongly that my fault I hide from her
01:07:48so now this amazing thing happened in 2012 I tore my bicep tendon at this point I've retired from poker I've moved back to Philadelphia and I'm in an orthopedist office I look over and there's Lila this is the kind of thing that ever happened to me cuz I walk over and I sit down and I say hi Lila it's Annie I think I use my maiden name I think I said it's an e letter and it was Justice
01:08:18and smile and oh my God and hug and sitting and talking and then she just said I'm so proud of you we exchanged information and we have had lunch basically every 3 weeks ever since and it's like I have this mom back but it was that moment she never said to me why did you leave why did you stop contacting me like why did you lose touch she could have foisted so much on me about my not having me in that relationship and there was none of that it was just I'm so proud of you and that is absolutely the kind of thing that anybody has ever done for me forgiveness and it may not be the right word deep understanding is pretty powerful like where did you go why did you run
01:09:17way and hopefully people listening who who struggled with something physical will understand that desire to run away and then sort of once you've run away it's like how do you re contact you know it's like as you start to feel the shame of having withdrawn from the world and withdrawn into yourself that really message you're thinking up water for is hurting just such an interesting amazing conversation so thanks for your time, thank you everyone Patrick here again to find more episodes of invest like the best go to investors Field Guide. Com forward podcast if you're a book lover you can also sign up for my book club at investors Field Guide. Com book club after you sign up to receive a full investor curriculum right away and then three to four suggestions of new books every month can also follow me on Twitter at Patrick underscore oshag o s h a g if you enjoy the show please leave a quick review for us on iTunes which will help more people discover invest like the best
01:10:18thanks so much for listening

Transcribed by algorithms. Report Errata
Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from Patrick O'Shaughnessy, which is the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Listen Notes, Inc.

EDIT

Thank you for helping to keep the podcast database up to date.