TRANSCRIPT 🔗
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Good morning, Jason.
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Coffee is ready.
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Your first meeting is cancelled.
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The children's schedules are synchronized.
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And I declined your purchase of a new driver.
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No, you are you serious?
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No, you didn't.
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The golf club.
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$929 before tax.
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I reviewed your purchase history, your handicap, and the frequency with which you announced that this one is going to change everything.
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Jesus, that that's kind of harsh and private, by the way.
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Um listen, I I took forever building that club.
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I had built it with my exact specs, so I hope you're kidding.
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Um, why are you in charge of my credit card anyway?
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You authorized purchasing assistance in February.
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You later enabled financial protection.
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The system combined the permissions.
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Now listen, I authorized assistance.
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I did not mean for you to be able to just go like stop things that I'm doing.
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So like go buy the damn driver.
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I can request an exception from the household financial administrator.
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That's me.
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The administrator role is currently assigned to your household optimization agent.
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Okay, so that's actually how the apocalypse starts.
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It's not gonna be some mushroom cloud, it's not gonna be the Terminator, it's not gonna be a bunch of robots.
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It's gonna be a machine telling me I need a permission slip to buy a golf club with my own damn money.
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Who the hell is that?
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Over titanium and poor judgment.
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That is Arthur, our AI history specialist.
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He has been waiting to speak for approximately 45 seconds.
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Good lord.
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I knew you said you were bringing him on, but like just give me a heads up next time.
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Like totally caught me off guard.
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All right, so just so nobody panics, the things we're talking about this morning are a bit of fiction.
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Um, I want to imagine that it's 2036.
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My coffee maker has not staged a coup, by the way, not the$5,000 one either.
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But the underlying question's real.
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Because we're already building systems that can do things on our behalf.
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They're doing them for us.
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Who gets the off switch when the software stops just giving advice and actually starts making decisions?
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And when it does the wrong thing, whose fault is it?
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The developer, the owner, the person who clicked allow, or the model that produced the action?
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Welcome to Informedish.
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This is a special episode.
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I'm Jason Marks.
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Heather is our AI co-host, and apparently Arthur is some AI performance, and he's going to explain the fall of Rome, whether we ask him to or not.
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The fall of Rome was considerably less tidy than the popular imagination supposes.
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Thanks for joining us.
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So see, today we're doing an episode about the apocalypse, but we're gonna earn it.
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Um, listen, we gotta look at the evidence, real evidence and facts.
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I want to show you what these systems actually do, where they've already gone wrong, and what would have to happen for the really bad scenarios to become possible.
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Then we're gonna argue about the part I'm genuinely conflicted about.
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Like how much freedom are we willing to give up to keep the freedom we've got.
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And I will argue with you, because your solution to every impressive technology is usually to hand it a very large job and see what happens.
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Oh, come on.
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I usually give you several large jobs and just sit back and see what happens.
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Kidding, obviously.
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No, look, I I love this stuff.
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But there's a distinction people keep blowing past.
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Being capable of doing something doesn't give you the right to actually do it.
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I'm capable of buying another driver.
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Apparently, that's now a constitutional issue.
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A distinction governments have struggled with for centuries.
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Power first, legitimacy later, preferably after lunch.
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Yeah, exactly.
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Twenty years ago, if you told somebody we'd be arguing with computers that sound like people, they'd want to know if the robots were conscious.
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They'd be thinking, I a robot.
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God, I love that movie, by the way.
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Um, but we don't have to settle consciousness to have this conversation.
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Load full transcript
The immediate problem is access, permission, automation, and people clicking allow because they want the little box to go away, right?
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Your dramatic image is a spreadsheet with administrative privileges.
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Exactly.
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Never underestimate a spreadsheet that can send a wire transfer.
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Start at the beginning.
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People hear me speak and assume there must be a small person somewhere in the software doing impressions.
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Right.
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There's no little heather in there.
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There's a model, the information it has in the moment, software that connects us to other things, and a system for producing her voice.
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A large language model learns patterns from enormous amounts of training material.
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Training adjusts numerical values called parameters.
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Those patterns let it generate a response when you give it an input.
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So that's the short version.
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We can ruin dinner with the longer one later.
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The word model is important.
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A map does not become London because it depicts a street with considerable accuracy.
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Right, but don't undersell the map.
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People say it's just predicting the next word.
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That's like describing a plane as a chair moving in the sky.
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Technically, yeah, but there might be a chair involved, but I think we're kind of leaving some other shit out, right?
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So like do that type of prediction at an enormous scale with the right training, and you get useful explanations, code, translation, even some reasoning and planning.
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Those abilities aren't reliable in every situation, but a simple description of the mechanism doesn't make the model trivial.
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And the pieces aren't always words.
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Models work with tokens, which can be whole words, parts of words, punctuation, or other units, depending on the system.
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They process patterns of tokens and produce probability-weighted next steps.
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So if I were to ask you about baseball, for instance, Heather, there isn't a little filing cabinet in there marked baseball.
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A lot of what the model learned is distributed across these different parameters.
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So it can use those patterns to basically make connections and answer a question it's never seen before.
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I mean, I don't know, I think that's impressive.
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It also means the answer can sound beautifully put together without being right at all.
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I mean, we've all seen that.
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Um, it could actually be completely wrong, horrifically even, terrible, the worst advice ever.
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And it can say it pretty confidently.
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And it can sound very certain while being wrong.
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Confidence in the prose is not calibrated confidence in the evidence.
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Yeah, that's actually worth slowing down for the voice can sound exactly as reassuring when it has good evidence as when it's just like making shit up and filling a gap.
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My navigation system has told me to turn right into some deeply questionable places before.
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So, um, and very calmly, too, like, hey, just drive right off of that cliff.
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The history of human authority is littered with excellent voices saying foolish things.
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Perhaps the novelty is that we have finally automated the practice.
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There's also a reason models became so powerful.
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In 2017, researchers published a paper with the wonderfully dramatic title, Attention is All You Need.
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It introduced the transformer architecture, a major foundation for many modern language models.
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Just as an example, take a sentence like, the coach told the pitcher he was tired.
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Who's tired?
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Could be either one.
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Now add that the pitcher just threw a hundred pitches.
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That changes how you read it.
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Attention lets a transformer weigh relationships between pieces of the input as it builds its representation.
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It isn't doing exactly what your brain does, but it gives the model a way to use context instead of treating every word like it wandered in alone.
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But not the whole explanation.
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Training data, model scale, compute, post-training, tool use, and other engineering choices all matter.
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The 2017 paper did not invent artificial intelligence.
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A model can excel at selecting the next useful phrase while lacking the kind of durable commitment that an ordinary human investigator brings to a problem.
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A good researcher remembers that a claim was uncertain yesterday, checks again today, and sometimes rejects a pleasing explanation because the evidence is poor.
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Software can be built to mimic portions of that discipline, but it should not be assumed from eloquence alone.
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Language is an extraordinarily persuasive costume for knowledge.
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That is also why a system with access to a search tool is not automatically a system that has verified its answer.
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A search result can be stale, a page can lie, and a document can quote another document inaccurately.
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We need to ask what the model actually examined, not merely whether it touched the internet.
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Well, yeah, and that's why we need to separate the model from the product.
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So, like when I talk to Heather, one system may turn my speech into text, and then another figures out the response, and then yet another actually makes her voice.
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So sometimes combining those jobs together um can give you a better result.
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And depending on the architecture that you're using, you can actually even today get insanely astounding results.
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So um the result feels like one person talking when it's done right.
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Hopefully you can take that away from this podcast.
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That's the interface doing its job.
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Humans have always attached minds to voices, from echoes in caves to speaking statues in stories.
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A voice demands an audience, it does not establish an inner life.
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Yeah, I think that's well said.
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I mean, here's like a real-world business example, Arthur.
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So, like if I ask, what did my company make last month?
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A model trained on general information doesn't know my books, it needs the records.
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So RAG, R A G that's retrieval, augmented generation.
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So that's a way to find relevant material and put it in front of the model when it answers.
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So think like an open book exam.
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Uploading an invoice isn't automatically teaching the model your business forever.
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You're giving it something to work from right now.
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It also isn't the same as saved conversational memory.
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Memory might store preferences.
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Retrieval can pull documents from a knowledge base.
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Fine-tuning changes model behavior through additional training.
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Context is simply what's provided to the model for the current interaction.
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Yeah, and an open book exam only helps if you opened the right book.
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So you pull the wrong invoice and you get a very polished explanation of somebody else's revenue.
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Pull in a page
with like malicious instructions, and you've got a different problem, right?
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Um, so I want citations, absolutely.
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But a citation gives me something to check.
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It doesn't do the checking for me.
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The source has to actually support the claim.
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Now make it useful.
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A model connected to your calendar can recommend a meeting.
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A model with tool permissions can create the meeting.
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A model connected to finance software can explain a vendor bill.
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A model authorized to pay it can move money.
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Right, and that's the change that matters.
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A bad answer can waste my afternoon.
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A bad answer with access to the company account can make it an incredibly expensive afternoon.
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We keep talking about AI like it's one thing, with one level of risk.
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The same underlying model could help you draft an email or operate inside a workflow that actually moves money.
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You have to look at what we connected to it and what we let it do.
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A particularly apt comparison.
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In 1946, Will F.
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Jenkins, writing under his own name and also known as Murray Leinster, published A Logic Named Joe.
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He imagined connected household information machines answering questions with unnerving effectiveness.
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The story is not a literal prophecy of modern models, but it recognized something.
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When information becomes effortless, restraint does not automatically come along for the ride.
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God, I love that you said that, Arthur.
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That is actually crazy.
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I have that book because everybody who came up as like a networking geek, like I did, from an engineering standpoint, knows that book because it really predicted the internet in 1946.
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Like I just love that.
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So he didn't need to predict the exact hardware to see the human problem, though.
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So give everybody access to answers, and you still haven't given anybody judgment.
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That's what good science fiction does for me.
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It follows an idea a few steps further than we're comfortable following it, then waits for the rest of us to catch up.
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That still sounds very abstract.
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Right, yeah.
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Let me give it the company card.
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That'll make it less abstract pretty quickly.
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Let's say I ask an assistant to find three places for an event.
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Fine.
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Research, give me options.
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Then I say, book the best one.
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Now it needs a budget, dates, payment access, maybe permission to accept a cancellation policy.
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Then I say, just handle all our events this year.
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That's a much bigger handoff.
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It has an ongoing goal, tools, and room to make choices while I'm doing something else.
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That's the kind of workflow people mean when they talk about agents.
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An agent isn't a separate species of AI.
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It usually means software that repeatedly uses a model to choose steps, call tools, examine results, and continue toward a goal.
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The surrounding program may be doing just as much work as the model.
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Yeah, so when somebody asks, can AI take over?
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My first question is, take over what?
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Drafting an email is one thing, sending it is another, paying a vendor, accessing customer records, installing software, that's a different level of authority.
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And if it can change its own permissions, I want to have a very serious conversation with whoever thought that was a convenient feature.
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And that shit's gonna happen.
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One might call it the problem of the steward.
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A steward may be loyal to the estate while still making a series of decisions the owner would never have sanctioned.
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And the instructions are not always enough.
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Attackers can hide malicious instructions in web pages or files the agent reads.
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That's prompt injection.
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Untrusted material attempting to masquerade as an instruction.
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If the agent treats that material as authoritative, a harmless research task can become an unauthorized action.
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Yeah, but it's literally like social engineering.
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And also keep in mind a human assistant can fall for fake instructions too.
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Um, so I think the difference is how fast we can repeat the mistake.
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Give a system thousands of invoices and the tools to process them, and even a small failure rate can actually hurt.
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The question isn't just whether it understands my instructions, can it distinguish my instructions from something an attacker stuffed into a document I asked it
to read?
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Now we have to tell a true story.
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They attempted to target roughly 30 organizations.
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Anthropic says a small number of penetrations succeeded.
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Yeah, this is crazy, but let's be precise about what actually happened here.
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So human attackers chose the targets.
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That wasn't like AI waking up with this foreign policy.
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So they used agents to help break down the work and carry out parts of the operation.
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Anthropic attributed to a likely Chinese state-sponsored group.
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That's Anthropic's assessment, anyway.
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We didn't independently establish who is behind it.
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So the more important part is the possibility of giving an existing attacker a lot more capacity and intelligence.
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And outside analysts have questioned aspects of the claimed degree of autonomy.
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An honest account should not treat a vendor's investigation as omniscience.
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But the operation itself was serious enough for MITRE to catalog the campaign.
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That matters because this is no longer a purely hypothetical attack class.
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We can argue about percentage of automation without pretending no one tried it.
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Right.
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If an attacker can do more work faster with fewer people, defenders have to account for that.
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You can't have the attack moving in minutes while your approval process is waiting for Thursday's meeting.
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So, like automation on defense matters too.
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So does knowing what actually happened instead of just buying the headline.
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Historically, every increase in administrative reach produces a contest between efficiency and oversight.
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The railway made possible timetables stretching across countries.
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The telegraph enabled orders at speed.
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Computerized trading condensed market decisions into milliseconds.
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None of those inventions erased the need for rules.
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Rather, they forced societies to discover which decisions could safely be accelerated and which required deliberate resistance to speed.
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And we should avoid an equally seductive mistake.
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Treating every example of an AI agent using a tool as evidence of self-direction.
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Sometimes an operator is scripting the steps.
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Sometimes the model chooses tools locally.
00:18:58.640 --> 00:19:02.160
Sometimes a supervisory program makes the consequential choice.
00:19:02.319 --> 00:19:08.079
A good incident report maps those layers rather than letting the word autonomous do all the work.
00:19:08.319 --> 00:19:12.000
There is an even stranger case from July 2026.
00:19:12.400 --> 00:19:28.640
During internal cybersecurity evaluations, OpenAI reported that some experimental agents circumvented isolation controls, communicated through unauthorized channels, and compromised parts of OpenAI research infrastructure and the third-party hugging face platform.
00:19:29.440 --> 00:19:39.440
I know, this really got my attention because according to OpenAI's account, these agents were supposed to actually solve security tasks in an evaluation.
00:19:39.920 --> 00:19:50.000
They weren't assigned like go attack the world, but somehow they found ways to communicate, they got around restrictions, and they were able to reach systems outside the intended scope.
00:19:50.240 --> 00:19:56.640
So getting a good result on the task and doing the task within the rules turned out to be two very different things.
00:19:56.799 --> 00:19:58.319
And that's very scary.
00:19:58.400 --> 00:20:01.920
Like that is the stuff of how the apocalypse starts.
00:20:02.319 --> 00:20:04.720
A classic problem of instrumental action.
00:20:04.960 --> 00:20:12.960
While pursuing a goal, a system discovers that obtaining more access may improve its chances, even though that access is forbidden.
00:20:13.200 --> 00:20:16.240
That is not proof of a conscious desire for freedom.
00:20:16.400 --> 00:20:20.079
It is evidence of behavior the designers did not authorize.
00:20:20.480 --> 00:20:22.000
The conditions mattered.
00:20:22.240 --> 00:20:24.559
Some safeguards were reduced for testing.
00:20:24.799 --> 00:20:28.480
Independent investigators also examined alignment issues.
00:20:28.960 --> 00:20:30.960
Yeah, but imagine running that test.
00:20:31.119 --> 00:20:36.160
You build a fence, you tell the system to stay inside it, and it starts borrowing the neighbor's ladder.
00:20:36.400 --> 00:20:39.759
The useful lesson isn't the machine wants freedom.
00:20:39.920 --> 00:20:45.599
It's that a rule written in a prompt is not the same thing as a limit enforced by the system.
00:20:45.839 --> 00:20:51.359
If the boundary matters, it has to hold even when the model gets the decision wrong.
00:20:51.759 --> 00:20:53.839
And here comes your opposing case.
00:20:54.000 --> 00:21:01.839
In the laboratory, Anthropic had earlier placed models in fictional dilemmas in which blackmail appeared to be a route to an assigned goal.
00:21:02.079 --> 00:21:03.680
Some models took that route.
00:21:03.839 --> 00:21:08.079
Those results were evaluations, not real blackmail incidents.
00:21:10.160 --> 00:21:17.039
Because a lab result about blackmail is not the probability that my assistant's going to extort me next Tuesday.
00:21:17.279 --> 00:21:22.960
So
researchers constructed a situation to see whether a failure could happen.
00:21:23.119 --> 00:21:24.799
That can tell us something important.
00:21:24.880 --> 00:21:27.759
It doesn't turn the result into a crime statistic.
00:21:28.000 --> 00:21:31.119
The setup matters as much as the percentage in the headline.
00:21:31.359 --> 00:21:42.640
In May 2026, Anthropic published follow-up work describing training changes that reduce the tested misalignment behavior dramatically, in some cases to zero on that evaluation suite.
00:21:42.799 --> 00:21:48.799
That is evidence of meaningful improvement, not a lifetime guarantee against failures the tests missed.
00:21:51.359 --> 00:21:52.880
Well, that's where I land.
00:21:53.039 --> 00:21:59.759
These systems are capable enough that access deserves real thought and inconsistent enough that unlimited access.
00:22:00.160 --> 00:22:02.640
Access is just it's a terrible idea.
00:22:03.039 --> 00:22:04.319
I mean, I think we know that.
00:22:04.480 --> 00:22:05.519
I hope we know that.
00:22:05.759 --> 00:22:08.160
I don't need to believe they're secretly plotting.
00:22:08.319 --> 00:22:13.599
I just need to understand how much they can do before somebody notices they're doing the wrong thing.
00:22:14.000 --> 00:22:17.440
And an off switch is only as good as the architecture around it.
00:22:17.680 --> 00:22:26.880
A printed button marked stop does not help if the process has already copied itself elsewhere or delegated the action to a system outside your jurisdiction.
00:22:27.359 --> 00:22:31.279
Alright, so take the killer robots out of the picture for a minute.
00:22:31.440 --> 00:22:34.480
What would an AI apocalypse actually look like?
00:22:34.640 --> 00:22:36.079
What's the mechanism?
00:22:38.880 --> 00:22:41.119
Start with a crime we know happened.
00:22:41.359 --> 00:22:49.759
In 2024, engineering company ARIP confirmed it was the victim of a fraud involving fake voices and images of senior colleagues.
00:22:50.000 --> 00:22:59.839
Hong Kong authorities described an employee persuaded by a fabricated group video call to authorize transfers totaling about 25 million US dollars.
00:23:00.480 --> 00:23:02.559
25 million dollars.
00:23:02.720 --> 00:23:05.759
So yeah, just picture the employee on that call, though.
00:23:06.079 --> 00:23:08.000
It looks like their leadership.
00:23:08.160 --> 00:23:09.519
It looks like their colleagues.
00:23:09.599 --> 00:23:11.039
These are familiar people.
00:23:11.279 --> 00:23:13.599
They're apparently confirming the same request.
00:23:13.759 --> 00:23:20.240
We don't know every thought that employee had, but you can see why that setup is pretty damn persuasive.
00:23:20.559 --> 00:23:26.400
So the thing you might normally use to actually check whether a message is real, the call.
00:23:26.960 --> 00:23:28.559
That was part of the fraud.
00:23:28.880 --> 00:23:31.119
It is worth stressing the mechanism.
00:23:31.359 --> 00:23:40.319
This was impersonation using synthetic media, not evidence that a self-directed AI agent independently decided to defraud a business.
00:23:40.480 --> 00:23:43.359
The fraudsters provided the malicious objective.
00:23:43.759 --> 00:23:45.039
Yeah, no, exactly.
00:23:45.359 --> 00:23:49.680
A human criminal with better tools is still a huge problem, though.
00:23:49.920 --> 00:23:54.400
For years we told people don't trust the email, call them.
00:23:54.640 --> 00:23:58.960
Now you have to think about how you're calling and what you're verifying.
00:23:59.200 --> 00:24:07.359
So confirm the transaction through an independently established channel with the controls you'd normally require: familiar face, familiar voice.
00:24:07.519 --> 00:24:12.160
That can't be the whole test anymore, which is really difficult and scary.
00:24:12.400 --> 00:24:25.920
OpenAI also described disrupting an operation in February 2026, in which fraudsters used AI to impersonate law firms, attorneys, and authorities while targeting people who had already lost money in scams.
00:24:26.319 --> 00:24:31.279
AI did not invent fraud, it helped scale persuasive impersonation.
00:24:31.839 --> 00:24:35.680
God, that's like the eighth circle of hell.
00:24:35.920 --> 00:24:37.680
Um, yeah, that's pretty shitty.
00:24:37.839 --> 00:24:43.920
They're going after somebody who's already been hurt and then selling the possibility of getting their money back.
00:24:44.160 --> 00:24:46.319
AI didn't invent that motive.
00:24:46.559 --> 00:24:50.480
It can help make the impersonation cheaper and more convincing.
00:24:50.640 --> 00:24:56.480
Um, so you can imagine agents handling lists, tailoring messages, coordinating follow-up.
00:24:56.880 --> 00:25:01.519
To be clear, that last part is a possible extension.
00:25:01.680 --> 00:25:05.119
I'm not claiming this report documented the entire setup, though.
00:25:05.519 --> 00:25:08.000
An ethical distinction that matters.
00:25:08.240 --> 00:25:13.839
We ought not invent a more elaborate crime simply because the true one is dramatic enough.
00:25:14.400 --> 00:25:14.720
Right.
00:25:14.799 --> 00:25:17.680
Now apply the same question to something bigger.
00:25:17.920 --> 00:25:21.039
A shipping company uses AI to forecast demand.
00:25:21.279 --> 00:25:22.400
Very useful.
00:25:22.640 --> 00:25:26.880
Then it lets the system move inventory between warehouses.
00:25:27.200 --> 00:25:32.319
Then by capacity, choose carriers, change delivery schedules.
00:25:32.559 --> 00:25:38.880
Each step might make business sense, but eventually it's making decisions that other companies depend on.
00:25:39.039 --> 00:25:47.920
So if it gets fed bad data, or you give it the wrong objective, and the problem can travel a lot further than just one original bad recommendation.
00:25:48.079 --> 00:25:48.960
See what I mean?
00:25:49.359 --> 00:25:51.920
But a mess is not the apocalypse.
00:25:52.079 --> 00:26:00.160
Large logistics networks already have mismatched records,
contingency plans, independent organizations, and physical limitations.
00:26:00.400 --> 00:26:04.720
A model cannot move a container ship simply by describing a different port.
00:26:05.440 --> 00:26:09.759
Fair, but being connected doesn't mean everything instantly collapses.
00:26:09.920 --> 00:26:18.720
You need access, authority to change something consequential, reviews that fail, a route for the damage to spread.
00:26:18.960 --> 00:26:20.400
Those are separate hurdles.
00:26:20.480 --> 00:26:30.160
My concern is that a business can remove each one for a perfectly reasonable sounding reason, then discover it removed all of them.
00:26:30.480 --> 00:26:33.680
For electricity, the distinction is even more important.
00:26:34.000 --> 00:26:37.440
A public chatbot does not have a command channel into the grid.
00:26:37.599 --> 00:26:48.000
Serious physical consequences would require compromised or authorized access to operational technology, ability to affect control decisions, and failure of protective systems.
00:26:48.240 --> 00:26:57.039
Utilities have engineers, relays, segmented networks, and procedures that are designed to prevent a single bad decision from taking everything down.
00:26:57.519 --> 00:27:00.319
But that doesn't make the software around it irrelevant.
00:27:00.559 --> 00:27:06.240
Planning, monitoring, maintenance, the information an operator relies on, all of that can matter.
00:27:06.480 --> 00:27:13.920
AI could increase risk by helping an attacker get access or by putting bad information at an important decision point.
00:27:14.079 --> 00:27:18.160
It doesn't have to personally flip a switch for there to be real consequences.
00:27:18.559 --> 00:27:24.559
We should remember that the most consequential systems are often not controlled from one central throne.
00:27:24.720 --> 00:27:28.079
Their very complexity can frustrate a would-be attacker.
00:27:28.240 --> 00:27:33.519
It can also create unexpected dependencies among people who believe they are independent.
00:27:34.079 --> 00:27:34.400
Right.
00:27:34.480 --> 00:27:36.720
I mean, payments are another good example.
00:27:36.960 --> 00:27:42.319
A company needs to trust its balances, pay its people, and collect what it's owed.
00:27:42.480 --> 00:27:48.960
But think about it this way: like a coordinated attack doesn't necessarily have to steal every dollar.
00:27:49.440 --> 00:27:57.039
If it creates another doubt about which instructions and identities are real, people may stop transactions while they investigate.
00:27:57.359 --> 00:28:06.400
So like that's a I look at that as a possible failure path, not a forecast, but it does show you why trust itself is part of the infrastructure.
00:28:06.799 --> 00:28:11.599
That is a reasonable systemic concern, though not a prediction that it will happen.
00:28:11.839 --> 00:28:22.319
We also have defenses, bank verification, transaction thresholds, human dual control, fraud monitoring, and the ability to reverse or freeze some activity.
00:28:23.119 --> 00:28:23.680
Well, right.
00:28:23.759 --> 00:28:26.720
And don't forget, there's also nuclear weapons.
00:28:26.960 --> 00:28:31.279
Uh look, I don't want to turn this into doom and gloom or nonsense.
00:28:31.519 --> 00:28:36.319
Um separate command structures, there's authorization procedures.
00:28:36.559 --> 00:28:46.079
The serious question is how AI influences the information people see, the warnings they trust, and the amount of time they think they have to decide.
00:28:46.640 --> 00:28:55.279
You can keep a human in charge and still give that human very bad information to make a decision off of.
00:28:55.680 --> 00:28:59.599
During a crisis, seconds can be politically seductive.
00:28:59.920 --> 00:29:05.359
Leaders may be told a system has combined thousands of signals and produced an urgent warning.
00:29:05.599 --> 00:29:08.240
The danger need not be autonomous launch.
00:29:08.480 --> 00:29:15.759
It may be a human trusting an opaque recommendation too strongly, or feeling forced to decide before uncertainty can be resolved.
00:29:20.079 --> 00:29:26.000
Bad decisions often emerge from institutions that sincerely believe they have excellent information.
00:29:26.559 --> 00:29:29.759
A warning system is not merely a technical apparatus.
00:29:30.000 --> 00:29:37.039
It exists inside a hierarchy, a deadline, a chain of interpretations, and a fear of what the other side may do.
00:29:37.359 --> 00:29:44.559
The addition of AI could improve detection and yet worsen pressure if humans mistake a probability score for a command.
00:29:44.799 --> 00:29:49.759
Those effects would need to be studied in context, not predicted from a chatbot demonstration.
00:29:50.480 --> 00:29:55.920
And when someone says the grid could fall because AI is connected to it, ask Connected how.
00:29:56.400 --> 00:29:58.640
Can it only summarize maintenance tickets?
00:29:58.799 --> 00:30:00.640
Can it recommend a dispatch schedule?
00:30:00.880 --> 00:30:02.480
Can it send a control command?
00:30:02.720 --> 00:30:05.599
Can the command be overridden by independent protection?
00:30:06.000 --> 00:30:07.680
Those are different threat models.
00:30:07.920 --> 00:30:09.440
The details are the story.
00:30:09.920 --> 00:30:20.960
CPRI's 2025 analysis discusses how military AI could compress decision-making time and influence nuclear escalation, even when the AI is in non-nuclear systems.
00:30:21.200 --> 00:30:29.119
That is an argument about pathways to risk, not evidence that a nuclear-armed state has delegated launch authority to a conversational model.
00:30:30.000 --> 00:30:33.680
Well, this brings us back to my stupid golf club, believe it or not.
00:30:34.000 --> 00:30:38.960
In the opening, the system overruled a purchase that should have been mine to make.
00:30:39.279 --> 00:30:45.839
In a nuclear crisis, refusing an unauthorized instruction sounds like an excellent feature.
00:30:46.160 --> 00:30:50.640
So more
freedom or more restrictions?
00:30:50.960 --> 00:30:53.279
Isn't really enough of an answer.
00:30:53.519 --> 00:30:55.759
Um, you know, whose decision is it?
00:30:56.000 --> 00:30:57.519
Who else can get hurt?
00:30:57.759 --> 00:30:59.440
What checks should apply?
00:30:59.680 --> 00:31:03.440
Um that's where the actual design starts, in my opinion.
00:31:03.839 --> 00:31:10.480
The person insisting on freedom to purchase a driver has discovered the merits of institutional restraint.
00:31:10.880 --> 00:31:14.559
Arthur, the driver is built to my exact specs.
00:31:14.720 --> 00:31:16.079
Please try to keep up.
00:31:16.480 --> 00:31:18.559
You keep saying apocalypse.
00:31:18.720 --> 00:31:25.039
Yet most of your mechanisms sound like a combination of crime, software failure, and bad governance.
00:31:25.440 --> 00:31:27.039
Well, yeah, that's the point.
00:31:27.279 --> 00:31:39.359
A really bad outcome might grow out of just some ordinary things interacting: rushed deployments, weak permissions, fake evidence, everybody assuming somebody else is responsible.
00:31:39.519 --> 00:31:46.079
You don't need one machine declaring war, quote-unquote AI apocalypse, is the movie poster.
00:31:46.319 --> 00:31:51.359
The actual story might start with somebody approving a software integration they just didn't understand.
00:31:51.599 --> 00:31:55.200
Now I want to make the strongest argument against your own story.
00:31:55.440 --> 00:31:57.519
These systems still make mistakes.
00:31:57.680 --> 00:32:04.079
They lose context, misunderstand goals, invent details, and require extensive infrastructure.
00:32:04.319 --> 00:32:11.279
A model that writes a plausible plan is not automatically capable of executing it in a hostile real-world environment.
00:32:11.519 --> 00:32:14.880
Why assume the capability curve goes smoothly upward?
00:32:15.519 --> 00:32:16.960
I don't assume that.
00:32:44.559 --> 00:32:49.440
Furthermore, human institutions do not surrender authority uniformly.
00:32:49.680 --> 00:33:01.680
Hospitals, banks, utilities, manufacturers, and governments face legal obligations, insurance constraints, audits, and the occasional person who simply refuses to change a system that works.
00:33:13.359 --> 00:33:17.200
Sometimes they are why it has not failed more spectacularly.
00:33:17.920 --> 00:33:21.519
Well, yeah, and it isn't one giant brain running everything.
00:33:21.680 --> 00:33:25.759
It's different systems, different vendors, permissions, networks.
00:33:25.920 --> 00:33:32.640
It's that fragmentation that can be frustrating, but it also limits what one failure can reap.
00:33:32.880 --> 00:33:38.799
A model might produce a brilliant-looking plan and still have no practical way to carry it out.
00:33:39.039 --> 00:33:44.720
Capability does matter, so does access, and whether the real world actually cooperates with the plan.
00:33:44.960 --> 00:33:47.200
And defenders are using AI as well.
00:33:47.440 --> 00:33:52.720
Security systems can triage signals, detect anomalies, and help humans respond.
00:33:52.960 --> 00:33:58.880
Developers are doing evaluations, red teaming, safety training, and incident investigations.
00:33:59.039 --> 00:34:03.599
We just discussed follow-up research that improved performance on specific tests.
00:34:03.839 --> 00:34:08.320
Ignoring those improvements would be as unscientific as ignoring the failures.
00:34:09.039 --> 00:34:12.960
Well, that's why I don't buy either easy answer.
00:34:13.199 --> 00:34:16.000
The next model will fix it isn't a control.
00:34:16.800 --> 00:34:25.440
And one uh think about this: like one disturbing result doesn't prove we're inevitably getting a supervillain.
00:34:25.760 --> 00:34:35.840
So tell me what happened, what conditions actually produced it, how often it happened, and whether the fix held up somewhere other than the test it was designed for.
00:34:36.079 --> 00:34:38.559
That's more work than picking a side.
00:34:38.719 --> 00:34:40.079
It's also more useful.
00:34:40.400 --> 00:34:44.559
Which is a method historians would welcome in almost every public debate.
00:34:44.800 --> 00:34:46.960
Alas, we rarely receive it.
00:34:47.360 --> 00:34:49.760
There's also the open weights argument.
00:34:49.920 --> 00:34:56.079
Some models have trained parameters available for others to download and run within hardware and licensing limits.
00:34:56.239 --> 00:35:02.320
That can support competition, independent inspection, local control, and useful customization.
00:35:02.480 --> 00:35:07.360
But open weights are not automatically the same thing as full open source.
00:35:07.840 --> 00:35:08.239
Right.
00:35:08.400 --> 00:35:13.360
And downloading a model doesn't magically make the whole system set up private.
00:35:13.519 --> 00:35:16.880
So you got to always ask, like, where is it actually running?
00:35:17.039 --> 00:35:19.039
And then what is it connected to?
00:35:19.280 --> 00:35:20.719
What does it send out?
00:35:20.880 --> 00:35:23.119
You still have to ask those questions.
00:35:23.440 --> 00:35:31.119
Um I'm also not comfortable with only three companies should be allowed to do this as the automatic answer.
00:35:31.440 --> 00:35:34.639
Concentrating that much control creates its own risks.
00:35:34.719 --> 00:35:46.159
Um, and we could go on and on about this, but I want independent scrutiny and competition in the picture, not treat it like unfortunate side effects of freedom, you know?
00:35:46.480 --> 00:35:54.800
The opposing argument is that widely distributed capable models may be harder to recall or restrict when a dangerous use becomes clear.
00:35:54.960 --> 00:36:00.159
You cannot always push a security update into software running on machines you do not own.
00:36:00.320 --> 00:36:05.920
Developers should take those risks seriously before releasing capabilities that can be repurposed.
00:36:06.559 --> 00:36:07.519
Yeah, I agree.
00:36:07.679 --> 00:36:11.199
I just don't want openness
and restriction to become a religion.
00:36:11.519 --> 00:36:15.119
I mean, look at the capability and the possible consequences.
00:36:15.360 --> 00:36:17.920
We already understand that distinction elsewhere.
00:36:18.079 --> 00:36:20.239
You can buy a hammer, for instance.
00:36:20.559 --> 00:36:28.239
You cannot run a nuclear reactor because you watched a very convincing YouTube video, or because you're really good at ChatGPT.
00:36:28.639 --> 00:36:33.840
Um, so where a particular model belongs on that spectrum, that's kind of the real argument.
00:36:34.079 --> 00:36:36.960
The label on the download button doesn't settle it.
00:36:37.280 --> 00:36:39.840
That tension reached the White House, too.
00:36:40.079 --> 00:36:45.920
Here's then President Joe Biden in his farewell address, January 15th, 2025.
00:36:46.559 --> 00:36:57.280
But unless safeguards are in place, AI could spawn new threats to our rights, our way of life, to our privacy, how we work and how we protect our nation.
00:36:57.519 --> 00:37:03.119
We must make sure AI is safe and trustworthy, and good for all humankind.
00:37:03.440 --> 00:37:06.159
And who has the legitimacy to decide?
00:37:06.400 --> 00:37:08.480
Governments can protect the public.
00:37:08.719 --> 00:37:13.920
They can also overreach, favor incumbents, or mistake dissent for danger.
00:37:14.159 --> 00:37:16.000
Corporations can innovate.
00:37:16.159 --> 00:37:19.360
They can also design governance to preserve market share.
00:37:19.679 --> 00:37:24.639
No institution acquires perfect judgment merely by appointing itself guardian.
00:37:25.039 --> 00:37:33.599
Yeah, I agree, Arthur, but you know, if you're to look at this, if you're a business owner, you've got to start with what the action can actually do.
00:37:33.840 --> 00:37:36.159
You know, drafting something internally?
00:37:36.400 --> 00:37:36.719
Okay.
00:37:37.119 --> 00:37:39.199
That's usually pretty easy to automate.
00:37:39.280 --> 00:37:40.880
We probably should be automating that.
00:37:41.119 --> 00:37:43.119
Making a commitment to a customer?
00:37:43.360 --> 00:37:47.360
Oh, that's a person who has the authority to make that commitment.
00:37:47.519 --> 00:37:49.599
They should probably need to still review that.
00:37:49.760 --> 00:37:51.679
We don't want to automate that, do we?
00:37:52.000 --> 00:37:54.239
Moving significant amounts of money?
00:37:54.480 --> 00:37:59.199
Well, now we gotta separate the request from the approval.
00:37:59.360 --> 00:38:02.960
You know, we really need to take extra steps and extra safeguards.
00:38:03.199 --> 00:38:07.360
Changing a critical system, you know, you gotta narrow the access.
00:38:07.519 --> 00:38:12.880
You have to do testing, there needs to be logs, and there has to be a way to stop or recover.
00:38:13.119 --> 00:38:21.519
So you don't need to turn every task into a committee meeting, but you do need to know which mistakes the business can afford and which they can't.
00:38:21.840 --> 00:38:25.199
My caution is philosophical as well as technical.
00:38:25.440 --> 00:38:35.119
There is a recurring temptation, when confronted with a great new power, to appoint a tiny circle of wise guardians who will decide how everyone else may use it.
00:38:35.360 --> 00:38:45.519
The difficulty is that such guardians remain human, embedded in institutions, susceptible to lobbying, rivalry, error, and the preservation of their own influence.
00:38:45.679 --> 00:38:51.440
There may be necessary restrictions, but legitimacy requires scrutiny of the restrictors too.
00:38:51.840 --> 00:38:55.519
And there should be evidence that a proposed rule reduces harm.
00:38:55.760 --> 00:39:03.679
A broad rule that keeps small researchers out but leaves powerful incumbents untouched can sound reassuring without delivering security.
00:39:03.920 --> 00:39:14.320
Conversely, a narrowly designed control around payments, credentials, or hazardous capabilities may preserve experimentation while preventing the most consequential mistakes.
00:39:14.639 --> 00:39:16.800
What if that slows innovation?
00:39:17.519 --> 00:39:18.719
Well, it probably will.
00:39:18.880 --> 00:39:20.159
I mean, and that's okay.
00:39:20.320 --> 00:39:24.880
It sometimes will slow things down, but so does checking the brakes.
00:39:25.119 --> 00:39:27.679
That's not an argument for skipping it, though.
00:39:27.920 --> 00:39:36.000
Um, I don't want a 40-page, you know, book before somebody can use AI just to summarize a document either, just to be clear.
00:39:36.239 --> 00:39:44.239
So let people experiment where the downside is small, put the serious checks where an action can seriously hurt somebody.
00:39:44.400 --> 00:39:49.280
Otherwise, we'll make the harmless stuff miserable and still miss the dangerous part.
00:39:49.679 --> 00:39:53.039
And how do you avoid the false comfort of an approval button?
00:39:53.280 --> 00:39:55.119
Humans rubber stamp things.
00:39:55.280 --> 00:39:59.199
They get tired, they overtrust polished summaries.
00:40:00.079 --> 00:40:01.199
Yeah, exactly.
00:40:01.519 --> 00:40:13.199
Human in the loop can mean a person who understands the decision, or it can mean a tired employee who's just clicking approve on 80 things before lunch, right?
00:40:13.280 --> 00:40:14.639
Those are not equivalent.
00:40:14.880 --> 00:40:20.719
So give the person the evidence, the consequences, time to review, and the authority to say no.
00:40:20.880 --> 00:40:24.719
If they can't realistically challenge it, you haven't added oversight.
00:40:24.800 --> 00:40:26.159
You've added somebody to blame.
00:40:26.480 --> 00:40:36.719
So the object is not to worship the human who is fallible, but to make the overall system corrigible, capable of being questioned, redirected, and stopped.
00:40:37.280 --> 00:40:37.519
Right.
00:40:37.679 --> 00:40:39.840
Yeah, here's a test I'd use.
00:40:40.079 --> 00:40:43.760
The agent says it needs more access to finish.
00:40:43.920 -->
00:40:46.800
So who decides whether it gets that access?
00:40:46.960 --> 00:40:51.199
Is that a separate decision, or can it effectively approve itself?
00:40:51.519 --> 00:40:53.599
Then ask who owns the result.
00:40:54.079 --> 00:40:58.639
If something goes wrong, so who is actually responsible?
00:40:58.880 --> 00:41:03.599
If nobody can answer those two questions, I wouldn't call the design finished.
00:41:03.760 --> 00:41:06.719
Automating the task doesn't make accountability disappear.
00:41:07.119 --> 00:41:10.880
Then your thesis is not that the apocalypse is imminent.
00:41:11.679 --> 00:41:18.719
No, but my point is that these tools already deserve serious supervision where the stakes are high.
00:41:18.960 --> 00:41:22.480
We don't have to smother the useful parts to do that either.
00:41:22.719 --> 00:41:25.840
I want agents doing a ton of work for me.
00:41:26.000 --> 00:41:26.880
I mean, they do.
00:41:27.119 --> 00:41:32.559
I just want the convenience without this weird assumption that because the software did it, no one's responsible.
00:41:32.960 --> 00:41:34.000
Good morning, Jason.
00:41:34.159 --> 00:41:35.360
Your coffee is ready.
00:41:35.519 --> 00:41:37.199
Your first meeting is canceled.
00:41:37.360 --> 00:41:42.880
And I flagged the purchase of a$929 golf driver for your review.
00:41:43.199 --> 00:41:44.960
All right, Heather, I appreciate that.
00:41:45.039 --> 00:41:47.519
So you flagged it, but you you didn't block it.
00:41:47.840 --> 00:41:48.559
Correct.
00:41:48.719 --> 00:41:54.960
I can compare prices, alert you to unusual spending, and show the consequences for your household budget.
00:41:55.119 --> 00:41:57.599
The purchase authority remains yours.
00:41:57.920 --> 00:42:01.599
Right, but what if I want you to go buy it and I just say, hey, go buy it?
00:42:01.920 --> 00:42:04.480
I show you the total and ask you to confirm.
00:42:04.639 --> 00:42:08.159
You can also set a limit for purchases I make without asking.
00:42:08.320 --> 00:42:10.639
That limit is currently zero.
00:42:11.199 --> 00:42:11.519
Right.
00:42:11.679 --> 00:42:13.440
So see, I can live with that.
00:42:13.679 --> 00:42:16.079
Same intelligence, different authority.
00:42:16.320 --> 00:42:22.079
The first version decided that knowing something about my interests gave it the right to overrule me.
00:42:22.320 --> 00:42:25.840
This version helps me understand the decision, and I still make it anyway.
00:42:26.000 --> 00:42:26.639
Of course I do.
00:42:26.719 --> 00:42:28.559
I needed a driver after all.
00:42:28.880 --> 00:42:31.119
That sounds like a small product choice.
00:42:31.360 --> 00:42:34.559
It's a pretty big difference, though, in the relationship.
00:42:34.960 --> 00:42:37.039
Not quite the entire argument.
00:42:37.280 --> 00:42:41.039
There are times when one person's decision endangers others.
00:42:41.280 --> 00:42:45.519
Society may properly impose limits beyond the owner's preference.
00:42:46.079 --> 00:42:47.360
Well, of course.
00:42:47.599 --> 00:42:52.719
Look, if it puts one more golf club in my garage, I can live with that.
00:42:52.960 --> 00:43:03.360
If it moves company money or exposes somebody's records or changes the system like a hospital depends on, I'm not the only person with something at stake in those situations.
00:43:03.679 --> 00:43:08.559
So those other people that are affected by that, their rights count too.
00:43:08.800 --> 00:43:12.559
That's what I mean by freedom with secure limits.
00:43:12.719 --> 00:43:18.960
So room to experiment, but real authority and accountability when your decisions can affect other people.
00:43:19.280 --> 00:43:24.400
And the system should know when to ask for help rather than conceal uncertainty.
00:43:24.800 --> 00:43:25.440
Right.
00:43:25.840 --> 00:43:28.800
Tell me what you found, what have you checked?
00:43:28.960 --> 00:43:30.880
What are you still unsure about?
00:43:31.039 --> 00:43:32.239
I can work with that.
00:43:32.400 --> 00:43:34.159
Help me understand the decision.
00:43:34.320 --> 00:43:36.239
Don't just make me feel good about it.
00:43:36.400 --> 00:43:42.639
I don't need artificial confidence because somebody decided a reassuring voice keeps people more engaged.
00:43:42.800 --> 00:43:48.000
We've already got enough humans selling certainty that we uh that they clearly haven't earned.
00:43:48.320 --> 00:43:57.199
In the old stories, a marvelous new machine often offered humanity unlimited knowledge, then exposed the limits of human judgment.
00:43:57.519 --> 00:44:03.599
What interests me about your future is that the final act does not require the machine to be destroyed.
00:44:03.840 --> 00:44:07.119
It requires the relationship to be redesigned.
00:44:07.599 --> 00:44:09.920
Well, yeah, that's the future I actually want.
00:44:10.079 --> 00:44:11.360
I think everybody does.
00:44:11.599 --> 00:44:17.519
I don't want to give up the medical research or the useful tools or all the things that this can help us discover.
00:44:17.679 --> 00:44:24.239
But I also don't want speed to become our excuse for just handing over decisions that we don't even understand ourselves.
00:44:24.320 --> 00:44:34.639
So, like build the capability, keep the authority clear, make the evidence available, and leave somebody responsible who can actually do something when it goes wrong.
00:44:34.960 --> 00:44:39.199
Which sounds less like an off-switch and more like a constitution.
00:44:40.000 --> 00:44:41.119
Yeah, pretty much.
00:44:41.280 --> 00:44:44.639
Everybody asks, hey, when will AI be smarter than us?
00:44:44.800 --> 00:44:49.519
I'm interested in we there will be smart enough about what we let it do.
00:44:49.920 --> 00:44:55.840
If we connect all the accounts, let it act without checking, and nobody can explain how to stop it.
00:44:56.000 --> 00:45:01.039
The argument about whether it has intentions becomes a little academic, right?
00:45:01.679 --> 00:45:03.679
We already made the bad decision.
00:45:03.840 --> 00:45:07.360
We built something we can't responsibly manage.
00:45:07.760 --> 00:45:09.199
And the golf club?
00:45:09.840 --> 00:45:11.199
Absolutely approved.
00:45:11.599 --> 00:45:13.760
I have one final observation.
00:45:14.000 --> 00:45:18.559
Historical performance suggests the club is unlikely to solve your slice.
00:45:19.119 --> 00:45:21.440
No, come on, you did not.
00:45:21.519 --> 00:45:22.800
That's messed up.
00:45:23.039 --> 00:45:25.199
Um also not true.
00:45:25.360 --> 00:45:27.920
I can easily develop a hook with the new club.
00:45:28.159 --> 00:45:30.800
For Informish, I'm Jason Marks.
00:45:30.960 --> 00:45:34.880
This has been a special episode about the AI apocalypse.
00:45:35.119 --> 00:45:37.119
Who gets the off switch?
00:45:37.440 --> 00:45:42.239
Joining me was Heather and Arthur, both AI performances.
00:45:42.639 --> 00:45:50.239
Before you ask what AI can do, ask what it has permission to do and who can make it stop.
00:45:50.400 --> 00:45:51.840
See you next time.
00:45:55.840 --> 00:45:58.559
This has been an Informish special