Full Transcript for The Friday Intel | 11.06.26: Which Metro-North Line Is Best? The Data Can't Pick a Winner

WEBVTT 00:00:02.080 --> 00:00:03.200 0.2. 00:00:03.520 --> 00:00:14.160 That is the gap in percentage points between the highest and lowest of Metro North's three big lines over the last 12 months, according to the MTA's own data. 00:00:14.400 --> 00:00:19.359 Every morning, somebody on a Westchester platform swears their line is the best one. 00:00:19.519 --> 00:00:21.920 Every morning, the spreadsheet is less certain. 00:00:22.079 --> 00:00:25.280 Hudson, Harlem, or New Haven, which line is the best? 00:00:25.519 --> 00:00:27.199 This is the Friday Intel. 00:00:27.519 --> 00:00:29.039 Let's go deeper. 00:00:30.079 --> 00:00:33.439 Welcome to the Friday Intel from I Live Here Westchester. 00:00:33.600 --> 00:00:39.359 Every Friday, we go deeper on one data story that affects your life in Westchester County this week. 00:00:39.600 --> 00:00:42.640 Which Metro North Line is the best for commuters? 00:00:42.799 --> 00:00:48.799 Last month we weighed New York against New Haven on pizza, and both sides turned out to be right about different things. 00:00:49.039 --> 00:00:52.240 New Haven is back, this time as a railroad. 00:00:52.399 --> 00:00:53.840 The city has range. 00:00:54.000 --> 00:01:00.399 Our source is the MTA's own on-time performance data set on the state open data portal. 00:01:00.560 --> 00:01:06.400 It counts the share of trains that reach their final stop within five minutes and 59 seconds of schedule. 00:01:06.560 --> 00:01:11.920 We average the monthly scores from October 2025 through September 2026. 00:01:12.640 --> 00:01:17.760 Here are the averages, the Hudson Line, 97.4% on time. 00:01:18.079 --> 00:01:23.040 New Haven, 97.3%, Harlem, 97.2%. 00:01:23.599 --> 00:01:25.200 That is the whole race. 00:01:25.439 --> 00:01:29.120 Harlem and New Haven are four hundredths of a point apart. 00:01:29.359 --> 00:01:33.040 The Hudson Line has the river, the New Haven line has Connecticut. 00:01:33.200 --> 00:01:36.799 The Harlem Line has Wassack, which is fun to say. 00:01:37.280 --> 00:01:38.400 The fine print. 00:01:38.640 --> 00:01:41.519 These are whole line numbers, not Westchester numbers. 00:01:41.760 --> 00:01:44.000 Each line runs well past the county. 00:01:44.159 --> 00:01:49.359 The Hudson to Poughkeepsie, the Harlem to Wasaic, the New Haven into Connecticut. 00:01:49.599 --> 00:01:57.760 Nobody sliced out the Westchester stops, and it is a plain average of twelve monthly scores with no waiting for how many trains ran. 00:01:59.439 --> 00:02:04.159 Month by month, the lines trade places like commuters swapping seats. 00:02:04.319 --> 00:02:06.959 Hudson finished on top in four months. 00:02:07.200 --> 00:02:10.560 New Haven, four, Harlem, three. 00:02:10.960 --> 00:02:17.840 In September, Harlem and New Haven tied at ninety-seven point eight, with Hudson at ninety-seven point seven. 00:02:18.000 --> 00:02:20.879 A simple month-by-month comparison we ran ourselves. 00:02:21.039 --> 00:02:27.599 Our arithmetic and not the MTAs found gaps too small to separate from ordinary monthly noise. 00:02:27.759 --> 00:02:31.280 On overall on time rate, the lines cannot be separated. 00:02:31.520 --> 00:02:36.479 Split by rush hour, and the gaps widened, though still by a small margin. 00:02:36.639 --> 00:02:44.800 On morning peak trains, Hudson averaged 95.5, Harlem 95.1, and New Haven 94.6. 00:02:45.280 --> 00:02:47.039 In the evening, it flips. 00:02:47.280 --> 00:02:58.000 New Haven leads at ninety-eight, about nine-tenths of a point ahead of Hudson at ninety seven point one, and one and a half ahead of Harlem at ninety six point five. 00:02:58.240 --> 00:03:01.039 New Haven is last in the morning and first at night. 00:03:01.199 --> 00:03:06.639 Those gaps are bigger than the overall one and they point in opposite directions. 00:03:07.280 --> 00:03:10.479 Here is what caught me off guard when I dug into this. 00:03:10.719 --> 00:03:14.400 The biggest swing in this data is not between lines. 00:03:14.560 --> 00:03:15.759 It is one winter. 00:03:16.000 --> 00:03:23.199 In January 2026, morning peak trains on the Hudson and Harlem lines were on time only 84.4% of the time. 00:03:23.439 --> 00:03:25.280 That is about 16% late. 00:03:25.520 --> 00:03:27.360 New Haven was 87.8. 00:03:27.759 --> 00:03:33.520 In February, Hudson 89, Harlem 88.6, New Haven 87.5. 00:03:34.000 --> 00:03:37.039 All three lines were lower together, two months running. 00:03:37.199 --> 00:03:39.520 The data does not say why. 00:03:39.759 --> 00:03:44.400 Three lines moving at once points to something they share, but not what. 00:03:45.039 --> 00:03:48.240 We also checked the two winters before it and they look normal. 00:03:48.400 --> 00:03:52.719 If you rode in at rush hour last winter, you had a similar ride on any of the three. 00:03:52.960 --> 00:03:55.919 So last January all three lines had a rough morning. 00:03:56.159 --> 00:03:57.360 What this means for you. 00:03:57.599 --> 00:04:05.280 Over the past year, about ninety-seven of every hundred trains on any of these three lines finish within six minutes of schedule. 00:04:05.520 --> 00:04:16.000 If you board at Port Chester Rye or New Rochelle, you ride New Haven, Tarrytown or Croton Harmon, the Hudson, White Plains or Bedford Hills, the Harlem. 00:04:16.319 --> 00:04:20.480 Pick your town for the fares, the parking, and the walk to the station. 00:04:20.720 --> 00:04:37.439 The lines may still differ inside Westchester, and this data set cannot show it, so if your train is late, you are allowed to be annoyed, and keep one eye on this winter, because all three lines were lower together last January, and the data cannot say it will not return. 00:04:37.680 --> 00:04:44.079 What this cannot tell you, how crowded the train was, what you paid, or how late the late ones ran. 00:04:44.240 --> 00:04:47.600 It counts trains, not minutes, and not comfort. 00:04:48.160 --> 00:04:49.839 That is your Friday intel. 00:04:50.000 --> 00:04:53.360 If this was useful, share it with someone who lives here. 00:04:53.600 --> 00:04:56.319 I'll see you Monday on the Westchester Brief. 00:04:56.399 --> 00:04:58.240 I'm Jim, and I live here.