Full Transcript for The arbitration and 40-man decisions that will shape the Nats offseason

see the table, you got to have a seat with SeatGeek, right? Isn't that right, Eric? That is. 00:05:34 Speaker 3: If you want to be at the game, you got to be there with SeatGeek. Let's give a shout out to the sponsor of today's video, SeatGeek. With over 35 million downloads, there is no question as to why SeatGeek is the number one rated ticketing app. There are more than 70,000 events listed on SeatGeek, including concerts, sports, festivals, and more. NFL season is officially here. NHL and NBA is going to be in full swing here soon. And of course, the MLB playoffs, NLDS, ALDS, then we'll have the championship series and the World Series. And with SeatGeek being MLB's official ticket marketplace... Your tickets are fully guaranteed and instantly fulfilled in your account after purchase. SeatGeek has your back. Each ticket is rated on a scale of 1 to 10, so you know you're getting a good deal. So look for the green dots. Green means good. Red means bad. Plus, every ticket is backed by their buyer guarantee. And of course, I have a code for you all. You can use code TERRITORY10 for 10% off your next set of tickets at SeatGeek. That's 10% off any tickets with promo code TERRITORY10. Make sure you click the link in the description to download the app and have the code automatically added to your account so you can use it later. 00:06:39 Speaker 1: Thank you, SeatGeek. All right, let's do it. It's just going to be exactly like SeatGeek with green means good, red means bad. And when you look at this roster, estimated final payroll for 2025 was $ 118 million if you looked at roster resource. There's three separate, like you got SpotTrack, you got roster resource, and you got Cots Baseball. All three are so different. They take into account so many different things. For my purpose only, I'm just saying, I'm using the final estimated payroll at 118 from Roster Resource on Fangraphs. Thank you. 00:07:12 Speaker 2: I actually have to interrupt you on this one real quick because that's actually the 2025 payroll from Roster Resource. 00:07:19 Speaker 1: 98 million. That is right. I'm looking at the wrong one on that one. That is awesome. That's how you do it. They're able to pare it down by 30. When you look at the next year's whole deal. There's only two guys with guaranteed rosters or guaranteed contracts for next year. Now they have all the guys that are, you know, pre-arb. They're already on the roster. What I'm talking about is guaranteed, signed through free agency or signed through arbitration years. And that's Kevin Ruiz and Kay Cavalli. Now, by the way, it was the same thing as last year because Kay Cavalli had a two-year deal before he signed this one based on that whole thing. So he was already locked up. We already knew that one. But Both those guys, a combined $ 10. 375 billion is what they're going to make. Let me reiterate that again. 00:08:05 Speaker 2: $ 10. 00:08:05 Speaker 1: 375 for two guys. That's it. All right. So then you look at the

other side of this. You've got eight guys arbitration eligible. And so the question to me, for me to you, is it green light, red light? Green light being 10-year contract, red light. Sorry, but we're going to have to move on. Josiah Gray. We have to lead it off. He's got the most service time. So he's in, I think, last year of arbitration for him. Yeah. 00:08:40 Speaker 2: It's tough that you're leading off with this one because this is actually the one that I've struggled the most with. 00:08:46 Speaker 1: So let's go to the back end on it. Let's go to the back end on it. 00:08:48 Speaker 2: Okay. 00:08:49 Speaker 1: That's fine. Because I think this is the part where you have to adjust, right? Like when we think about where are we on the roster. So let's go. Let's go. Okay. I like this. I like this. You make a valid point. So let's go to the point of lowest service time, first time eligible, Mitchell Parker. How about that? Probably red light. Yeah. I would also go red. 1.1 million. Okay. 00:09:13 Speaker 2: Yeah. Again, small contract, but would take up a spot on the 40-man roster. Candidly did not. Impressed much in 2025 when he was a starter. The transition to the bullpen was not much better in high leverage spots. Do I think he can still be a big league pitcher? Yes. Do I think that is going to happen with the Nationals? Probably not. And you have to figure and he's going to be hurt all of next year as well, or at least seemingly so. And so, yeah, that one that one's a red. 00:09:44 Speaker 1: Light for me. 00:09:45 Speaker 3: Yeah, I would also throw it under the red light category. It was kind of just a disaster of a year for him coming out of the bullpen, and that didn't work too well. I think he's best suited in different colors going into next season. 00:09:59 Speaker 1: All right, the next one would be J.Y., Jacob Young. 00:10:03 Speaker 2: That's the second easiest green light on the list. Again, read out to me how much he's making or projecting to make next year. 00:10:08 Speaker 1: 2.3, but this is, for me, this is the one of all the guys that are on there that is the most likely to get a multi-year. Like if, if you were to extend this out and move it two, three years, I would do that in a heartbeat just because it's, it's not going to, it's not going to cost you a ton and you know how reliable the human being is, right? Like number one, first and foremost, that is it. But for me, it's an easy green light, but he might be the best case for a multi-year deal. Yeah. 00:10:40 Speaker 2: And they've talked about, um, kind of at the end of last season, wanting guys to develop into leaders who have maybe been more Fringe leaders, so to speak, in years past. KB Ruiz was one. Jacob Young was the other big one, which makes a ton of sense, right? Like guys respect him in that room. Guys respect him outside of that room. And more than that, like oftentimes when you are a leader, it's hard to do that without having the production actually behind it. And obviously he's been one of the best defensive players in baseball for years. But to back that up with the sort of offensive season he had as well. Again, you add in the human Franny. You're absolutely right. This is a guy who seems poised to maybe you play that out over two years instead of one. 00:11:22 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's an easy green for me all the way. Like Spencer said, probably the second easiest besides C.J. Abrams, of course. But yeah, the offensive output that we saw from him this season makes it a no-brainer for me. 00:11:36 Speaker 1: Eric, you go into the stands often, right? With buddies, you have buddies that are Nats fans. Is he an easy one to target always as being like, We love this guy more than anything. Like he is he's someone you ride or die with just based on who Jacob Young is. Oh, yeah. 00:11:53 Speaker 3: My friend always loves to tell the story about the time that he was out in the Red Forge and J.Y. 00:11:57 Speaker 1: Turned around and threw him a baseball. 00:11:59 Speaker 3: And he always seems to bring it up to him. 00:12:01 Speaker 1: And J.Y. 00:12:01 Speaker 3: Says he remembers it. I'm not sure if he actually remembers the face, but he does. 00:12:06 Speaker 1: He does. 00:12:06 Speaker 3: He does. 00:12:07 Speaker 1: Oh, it's wild. 00:12:08 Speaker 3: Yeah. 00:12:08 Speaker 1: Oh, yeah. 00:12:09 Speaker 3: When he sees him down on the field, sometimes he'll help out with filming. He'll be like, oh, I remember it. I remember it. He's 100% someone that Nationals fans absolutely love. And I noticed in the Harps Off section, they had the C.J. Abrams and the James Wood chants going on here and there. I swear, if there was a third player that they were calling out to, it was Jacob Young, and he would turn around and acknowledge up to them in the third deck there. So I think he's an absolute fan favorite among Nats fans. And of course, the walk-up song gets the ballpark into it every single time. It, uh, it was my favorite, but he had some competition this year with Dalen. 00:12:44 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's pretty good. I like that one. All right. Ken Waldachuk. Uh, we didn't get to see a whole lot of them. Explosive fastball. We know it's a low arm slot, high upshoot fastball. There's a lot of swing and miss. There's a lot of walks, right? And this year we saw a little bit more in the zone. Second Tommy John, he's having to go through, uh, but a million dollars where they're at with him. And it's, I don't want to sit there and say, you know, so different than Mitchell Parker. I think it's so different than Mitchell Parker. I think this is a more, it might be more leaning towards the non tender part, but you understand if they kept them and if the non tender, can we resign them as a minor league free agent and allow them to work up into that spot? I think would be one of those things with him. Yeah. 00:13:30 Speaker 2: And that's where I'm at now again, like nationals fans saw him and they saw a guy

who allowed like eight runs in five innings and had Tommy Johns. I think he is so much more than that. He's a guy who I was high on coming into the season in large part because of what you said, not just like the induced vertical break on his fastball or like the rise on it, so to speak, but because it's coming from that really funky arm slot that usually you're not seeing that from. And so for me, I almost worry that another team is going to take hold of that. And he might actually be able to sign somewhere else later into the season on a big league deal, as opposed to a minor league contract over the winter with the nationals. All that being said, kind of another case of, I think he's a big league pitcher, but to shorten this out, I think it's still a red light because you need to take a chance on some other probably relief arms heading into next season. But that's, that's no knock on Waldo Chuck, who I still think maybe post TJ has a, you know, kind of third act in him. So that's, that's kind of my take on it. 00:14:33 Speaker 1: Yeah. 00:14:34 Speaker 3: At a projected 1 million, it's really not that much of a risk, I guess, but at the same time, just haven't really seen a lot of encouraging stuff. And I think that would be a perfect scenario. If there was a way where the nationals could re-sign him on a minor league contract and have him work his way through the system and earn his way back onto the 40 man, that, that would be ideal. But there is some electric stuff down there that I'm, so mixed in between this one, but you said other, other guys, I think maybe need this opportunity for that reason. I would probably say red. 00:15:06 Speaker 1: All right. I'm going to skip the next guy. Cause I think he'll be in the group of three, the last group of three on this one, but let's go Jake bird, Jake bird over three years, almost four or four exact years of service time. 1.3 is the projection on him. Relief pitcher. He got hot for, I would say a couple weeks span. You and I were interested in that move, right, in setting him down in the moment that he was because, I mean, the swing and miss got there. We saw him actually, you know, utilize shapes a little bit better. He had talked to me about getting that slider shape tighter and, you know, closer together for the axis part of it. So, for me, I go green light on him. 00:15:53 Speaker 3: Yeah. Yeah. 00:15:54 Speaker 2: I hate to be agreeing with you on every single one. I actually was hoping maybe we would disagree on this one in particular. I am also a green light. I think talking to people in the organization, they believe that he is, and this is not easy per se, but he is basically a platoon split away from being a great major league reliever. Now, again, we've seen over time because of the way his pitches move. He is not, I'll try to stop using inside baseball words and I'll just say he struggles against, you know, you know, opposite handed pitching and does well or hitting and does well against same sided pitching. 00:16:28 Speaker 1: Three nine, three 96, 10 78 OPS is, is nothing to, to, you know, shy, shy away from, right. That's left-handed. Yes. 00:16:37 Speaker 2: And I, so I think, you know, he will always be a platoon guy, so to speak, but when the numbers are that bad, you really have to worry. All that being said, one three for a guy who is shown in his career, he can be dominant. He's a, he's a veteran. Um, and more than that, they believe in him and they acquired him. And I don't think that that is, um, necessarily a negligible fact. Um, I don't know that he makes the opening day bullpen next year. Um, but I think that's a safe arm to at least have, uh, you know, back there, but I, I do not think that's an easy call at all. I think you could go either way on it. 00:17:14 Speaker 3: Right. I, yeah, I think for me, I may have to disagree. I would probably have to put it as a red. I just didn't love what I saw from him down the stretch there and think that maybe some other guys deserve the opportunity a little bit more. 00:17:28 Speaker 1: It was the one in that. 00:17:30 Speaker 3: Entire trade that had me scratching my head a little bit because I viewed it as a guy who was going to be pitching for a couple of months and that was going to be it is his Nationals tenure. 00:17:39 Speaker 1: So. It will be interesting. 00:17:42 Speaker 3: We saw flashes, I think, before he was acquired in New York where he was really good. But if the Nationals aren't able to unlock that, I wouldn't tender. 00:17:54 Speaker 1: Richard Lovelady is the next one. He just over four years service time. $ 1. 7 million is his projected salary for next year as far as the ARB numbers go. We saw some good. I think more the bad at times played a factor in this. I would go red light on this one. 00:18:15 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's a red light. You mentioned the number that's probably bigger than the Nationals would want to pay. Beyond that, at the end of the day, you want a guy who can get lefties out right. And even though Lovelady has shown stretches in his career where he can get guys out, it's never been the platoon. It's always been same-sided. Or, excuse me, opposite-handed hitting. And so, yeah, for me, when I think about wanting a dominant or even a second-tier lefty in the bullpen, my mind probably doesn't go to Lovelady. But he's someone who will probably get a job somewhere else or at least will be competing for spots somewhere else like he did with the Mets and Nationals before this season. 00:18:57 Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah. 00:18:58 Speaker 3: I would really like to see him come back. Uh, the emotion that he pitched with out there got me so fired up. I'm emotional person, but I guess we have to make business decisions here and look down at 1.7 million and say that is. 00:19:10 Speaker 1: I mean, the emotion came on sweepers, bro. 00:19:12 Speaker 3: Yeah, it was on the sweepers, the swing and misses. Um, but yeah, 1.7 million. It is, I

think a little more than the nationals might want to give out to someone like that. Um, but they will need to have lefties down in the bullpen. I mean, I guess they don't need to, but traditional bullpens, you'd like to have a lefty down there. 00:19:33 Speaker 1: And I mean, they got plenty of, they got plenty of options with lefties. Right. 00:19:37 Speaker 2: Which they didn't at the start of the year, which is why, you know. 00:19:40 Speaker 1: Like Tolman's Tolman's a for sure. 00:19:42 Speaker 3: Right. 00:19:42 Speaker 1: Like you, you know what you're going to get there, whether you have any of these guys coming up for the minor leagues at any point in time. Sure. We don't know. 00:19:50 Speaker 3: Right. 00:19:51 Speaker 1: Like it's a part of it. Palmquist is going to be involved. I'm sure because he's, you know, they're still pre-arb. You're not paying them anything. Don't. And it's going to be something they're going to probably seek during the off season. So like, that's the part where I wouldn't rest everything on, you know, not, not worried about like, you know, filling in those lefties already, but it's, can he get guys out or can he not? Like, are you, are you giving them one seven to get guys out or not? Right. 00:20:22 Speaker 2: And like they have, well, that's the whole thing with this is they have money to play with. So like, yes, if, if that's the direction that they want to go in and they, they start opening the checkbooks fine, but they will not have an unlimited payroll forever. So like, well, one seven, thank you. No. Can it be better spent elsewhere? Probably. Yeah. 00:20:40 Speaker 1: All right. That's where we get to the big three here with Jake Irvin, CJ Abrams, Josiah Gray. And I, and I say the big three because they're the longest tenured guys here. When you think about it, as far as within that, not service time with in the big leagues, but service time with the Nats and Jake Irvin, I think would be the one to start right there at three, four. We know the struggles. We know that there's been a lot of, you know, talk about the highest ERA in baseball over the last like three years. The peripherals don't all suggest like there's, there's something good that's going to happen. And so are you going off of leadership and vibes or are you moving on? 00:21:23 Speaker 2: I think it's probably a red light, right? Again, I, I will preface all of that by saying the good things that he does is Um, in that clubhouse, he is an important leader. Um, someone who after wins is making sure to highlight the players that might otherwise go, you know, under notice or under respected. Um, I think we have seen stretches from him or even, I can just say plain out like starts from him where he goes eight innings, one earned run seven innings to hit. Like he, he has those outings in him. Um, But there just isn't the degree of consistency that he needs to maybe lock up a spot the way that he has the past few years. And so he's another one

where I think maybe a new situation or a different setting might help him out. But the fastball at 94, the curveball at 81. I like the idea of throwing three different fastballs. But at the end of the day, like, you know, to borrow a phrase from the former GM, like you kind of are who the back of your baseball card says you are to a certain degree, right? Um, and so I think that Jay can have a better second half of his career. Um, but I think it's hard to look at that three, four number, look at the ERA over five and say, oh, you're, you're guaranteed a spot in next year's rotation. Um, I think he is planning to work out in Florida this year. Um, and so maybe they see a little extra juice in his fastball. They unlock something and go, oh, let's keep them. I don't, I don't think that that is out of the picture, but I do think it's most likely a red light. 00:22:56 Speaker 3: Yeah, at $ 3. 4 million, it's just a lot for a guy. Like you said, when you look at the back of the baseball card, it has not been particularly encouraging. But the leadership from him has just been incredible. And I honestly wonder what the clubhouse starts to look like without him. You know how well him and Cade Cavalli get along and the success that Cade had this season. I'd really like to see Drake back, but... with the, uh, the highest CRA is Franny mentioned the last couple of seasons. I think it's probably a red for me too. Um, you just hope that he can figure it out and somewhere else if it's not DC. Uh, but there's just, there hasn't been enough for me to, uh, give reason to tender him a contract. 00:23:39 Speaker 1: All right. Uh, let's go with Josiah gray. Let's say, let's stick with the, uh, um, starting rotation because Cade, Andrew Alvarez, I would say the DJ, hers, probably early is all involved with the starting rotation. Uh, there's going to be more added. You know, that you've got the Travis, the cores, you got the Harley suit, Susanna's, you know, coming in, uh, this year at some point, hopefully, um, where are you at with Josiah gray and his return? 00:24:14 Speaker 3: Yeah. 00:24:14 Speaker 2: I think if Josiah gray has a future with this team, in my eyes, it's probably out of the bullpen. Um, Again, maybe not, again, because of the deep pitch mix and things of that nature. It is really hard for me to say red light because, again, of what he's been through, the fact that the number is not very large. And so I'm going to kind of go against what a computer might say or even what I thought I might say heading into this. And I might even change my mind, right? it's a yellow light, but I'll, I'll call it a green just again, because I think it matters. 00:24:51 Speaker 1: Yeah. 00:24:52 Speaker 2: I think it matters to have, I think it matters to have a culture guy like that around at a, at a one three you know, blowing through the green light or the red light or however you might say it. I think it's, it's not a very big number. I think that's like 500,000 over

what the rookie minimum will be. And it might even be smaller with a, um, post CBA world. Um, I think given everything he's been through, given the fact that he does have some funky characteristics in his delivery and his pitch mix, um, someone who should theoretically get some time again, also probably in Florida with the team to figure things out. Um, it's possible what they see in Florida, they will say, Hey, we thank you for your time. We're very glad we worked together. We'll move on. I think that that is well within the realm of possibility. Um, I just think he's so well liked in the organization. I think that he has some characteristics that are interesting. And so I'm not even sold on my own answer per se, but like if I'm going with my gut, I'll say green light. We'll see if my answer changes in, you know, 30 seconds or 30 minutes or however long we, we decide to debate this. 00:26:06 Speaker 1: Think about this. So if they kept it where it was at one, three, 5 million, right? Like that's where his, his last number was set. I don't know why a bump makes me say red light. If you stayed at the number, green light. It wasn't like he was there forever. I think it would be actually doable. I like the yellow light going to green light on it. If it's closer to the number this year, then yeah. Give me green light. Where are you at, Eric, on that one? 00:26:42 Speaker 3: Coming into the season, I was a big fat red light on this one. I honestly didn't know what the... I didn't think we were ever going to see Josiah throw a pitch again, frankly. I just didn't want to believe that we were going to see him come back and play as well as we did down the stretch. 00:26:58 Speaker 1: And he did. 00:27:00 Speaker 3: He totally proved my expectations wrong. And that's made it a lot more interesting now. I would say yes, because the price point is so low. But I also agree, I think when you look at the rotation and guys that will be coming next season, he probably fits into this roster better from a bullpen perspective. And he was pitching so well out of the bullpen in September. Why mess with something that has been going so well? 00:27:25 Speaker 2: Right. And we saw him throwing, he touched 94 early, um, again, a small sample. There was some 90, 91 in there. Um, but you think about it, just, I agree who throws 94 miles per hour in an organization that has been able to teach velocity, right? Um, is it too late for him to sit 94 for the rest of his career? I don't know, but if I'm going to trust an organization to do it, it's the nationals or the Dodgers or, um, you know, a handful of these VLO sort of orgs. 00:27:55 Speaker 1: Right. 00:27:56 Speaker 2: Um, and that's why I say, yeah, give him a shot. Um, and if it doesn't work out, it doesn't work out and he can, he can find a, um, probably be able to find a job elsewhere, but I think he means a lot to his organization and has some, some room to grow. So that's why I lean green light. 00:28:12 Speaker 1: All right. The last one is the obvious green light for everybody. It should be, um, if it's not, we're going to fight, but it is the $ 6 million bump or more, uh, for a guy in CJ rooms. And I think that, uh, look, this is a interesting number that you look at for a guy. Um, he's earned it. I'm not saying interesting as far as like, it's, it's too high to anything. I'm just saying it's going to, is it going to be as a national? I hope so. And I hope as a second baseman moving forward and, and, and doing that stuff, I, I, I think we're going to see nothing but good. But CJ Abrams projected at 10-2. I don't care what the number is. I'm saying green light all day long. Yeah. Yeah. 00:28:54 Speaker 2: Well, I was not doing the math because I don't know these ARB numbers. Just looking at some past comps, I wouldn't be shocked if that number gets up to like 12 or 13 or something like that. 00:29:03 Speaker 1: No, I agree with you. 00:29:05 Speaker 2: And again, you have to pay it. I do not know what the Nationals are going to do with C.J. Abrams this winter. I think anyone who says definitively is either better reported than me or more likely doesn't know. And so I think the fact of the matter is this is one of your building blocks. If you don't have C.J. Abrams on your roster, your payroll is like $ 35 million as opposed to $ 45 million. Both of those are just unbelievably low numbers. And that's why it kind of is at this point. If you have a guy this talented in-house, keep him and pay him. of the philosophy. I don't think they have to keep them, but, um, my, my larger point and focus and philosophy here is, um, there is no problem adding to this payroll given where it's at. And CJ Abrams factors into that quite nicely. 00:29:55 Speaker 1: Yeah. 00:29:56 Speaker 3: He absolutely earned the, uh, The additional money this offseason, the 10.2 seems kind of low to me, frankly. I just say whatever the number is, you got to get it done. This team is not the team that it is without C.J. Abrams. And I think you really start to lose some identity if you move on from him and you definitely lose the support of the fan base. And I just don't know if they can handle another move like that right now. So I sure hope he's suiting up in Nationals red next off next season. 00:30:28 Speaker 1: I think it's going to be an interesting one as we move forward into this offseason. It was interesting to see how the end of the year played out. Him going from second to short playing a couple back-to-back games in second base, but I'm more interested to see where his team comes into play on this and the number that they come in on because that's going to be an interesting one. I can see them going all the way up to like 18. You can see that. You can sense that they want to get paid the way that they feel like he should, so maybe they strike a deal. Maybe there's something that goes on. Maybe you'll just have to keep tuning in to District Territory because we'll have some updates as the season goes on and the offseason continues because this is just week one, a full week one. We're not talking playoffs. We're not talking anything, which we could if we wanted to, but we might do that at some other point. This is District Territory. Until next time, peace.