TRANSCRIPT 🔗
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Let's talk about something that probably hits closer to home
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than any stock market headline or GDP report, your paycheck.
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You might have gotten a raise this year, maybe even
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last year too. So why does it feel like you're
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falling behind anyway? Here's the uncomfortable truth. For a huge
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chunk of American workers, that raise didn't actually keep pace
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with the cost of everything else going up around them.
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We're talking about something economists call sticky wage norms. And honestly,
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it's one of the sneakiest forces shaping your financial life
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right now. Here's how it works. Most companies don't sit
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down every year and calculate exactly how much inflation ate
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into your buying power, then adjust your pay accordingly. That's
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not how it works in the real world. Instead, firms
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tend to pick one standard raise percentage, maybe 3%, maybe 4%,
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and apply it across the board to most employees, regardless
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of what's happening with prices at the grocery store or
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the gas pump. That worked fine during periods of low
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stable inflation. But then 2021 through 2023 happened. Inflation spiked hard,
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and those sticky standardized raises simply couldn't keep up. The result?
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Research from the National Bureau of Economic Research found that
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37% of workers experienced cumulative real wage declines between 2021
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and 2025. Let that sink in. More than a third
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of the workforce got nominal raises on paper. But when
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you adjust for what things actually cost, they ended up
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poorer than before. So what do people do when their
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paycheck quietly shrinks in real terms? They adapt, often in
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ways that aren't sustainable long term. This is what we're
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calling the working more, keeping less phenomenon. People start picking
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up extra shifts. They stretch their average work week longer.
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they dip into savings they'd rather not touch. And when
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that's not enough, they turn to credit cards, buy-now-pay-later apps,
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or those cash advance services that promise quick relief
Load full transcript
but
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often come with steep fees. It's a defensive scramble just
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to maintain the same standard of living they had a
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few years ago. Now, here's an interesting wrinkle in all this.
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Not everyone experienced this equally. If you switched jobs during
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this period, you likely saw wage increases that actually tracked
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closer to inflation. Employers competing for new talent had to
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offer more competitive pay to lure people away from their
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current jobs. But here's the catch. Most people don't switch
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jobs that often. The loyalty, the comfort, the risk aversion,
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whatever the reason, job switching simply isn't frequent enough across
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the whole economy to offset the systemic real wage decline
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for everyone else. So you end up with this two-tier reality,
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job changers doing OK, job stayers quietly losing ground. This
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also explains something that's been puzzling a lot of economists
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and journalists lately. Why does consumer sentiment remain so gloomy
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even as headline inflation numbers have cooled down? The answer
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is actually pretty intuitive once you think about it from
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a regular person's perspective. People aren't reacting to abstract macroeconomic
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indicators on a chart. they're reacting to their own personal
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experience of walking into a grocery store and watching their
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paycheck not stretch as far as it used to. Inflation
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cooling off doesn't erase the damage that's already been done
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to someone's purchasing power over the past few years. The
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psychological toll of constantly feeling behind that sticks around long
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after the official numbers start looking better. One more thing
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worth mentioning because it adds to the confusion. Depending on
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which inflation measure you use, the Consumer Price Index or
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the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, and depending on what timeframe
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you're looking at, you can get wildly different answers about
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whether wages have kept up with inflation. This measurement disparity
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is part of why you'll see conflicting headlines. One article
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says wages are winning the inflation fight. Another says they're
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losing badly. Both might be technically accurate, just using different